Well, my friends, it’s hard to believe we’ve been at this as long as we have. But here goes nothing. Hopefully you’ve recorded your own predictions over at Gold Derby, and you might not want to take a big risk with them. You might want to predict a wild card for the hell of it. Here is your chance. You have three slots to decide what MIGHT happen. But remember, it’s not a wild card pick if it’s something people are predicting already. But it would be much more dramatic than that. These are predictions most people think will NEVER happen. Got it?
Here are mine:
1) First Man gets in for Picture, Director and Screenplay
2) Leave No Trace’s Debra Granik gets in for Best Director
3) Paul Schrader gets in for Best Director/Screenplay for First Reformed
Your turn!
No Regina King for Best Supporting Actress
No If Beale Street for Best Picture
No Vice for Best Picture
First Reformed in BP & BD
Buster Scruggs in Screenplay
Ready Player One in Production Design & Score (looking at you: Passengers…)
Well good luck for tomorrow everyone! I am way too excited for this. Will see y’all just after 2am (why do I do this to myself).
Bo Burnham for Best Director!
My no guts no glory
1. Roma gets sound mixing and sound editing
2. A quiet place gets nominated for best picture
3. Green book misses screenplay
4. Incredibles 2 gets nominated for animated feature and visual effects
5. Sam Elliott gets nominated for supporting actor
NGNG (All of these have 0 votes from the GoldDerby experts):
Best Song: A Place Called Slaughter Race, Ralph Breaks the Internet — Sarah Silverman & cast
Best Song: Suspirium, Suspiria — Thom Yorke
Best Song: The Big Unknown, Widows — Sade
I have a single NGNG (though one with ramifications in several categories): A big over-performance by A Quiet Place. In that case, it would definitely pop up in the categories where it is already on the periphery of breaking through (Supporting Actress for Blunt, Original Screenplay, Picture, the Sound categories), but also in a spot or two that is more out of nowhere such as Supporting Actor for Krasinski (side note: who on earth does that leave as lead of the film? the giant ear aliens?), Editing, or perhaps even Director.
My second NGNG is that several NGNG posted here will be true. ANd I mean real NGNGs not the ones that say the 6th favourite as NGNG.
I knew I wasn’t the only one predicting Natalie Portman!
The biggest NGNG of all:
Toni Collette gets nominated for “Hereditary”. It seems 110% impossible at this point.
I dreamt Collette was both nominated today and also my aunt so one of them has got to come truth right!?
I’m scared.
Michelle Yeoh for supporting actress
Aparicio for best actress
A quiet place for best picture and supporting actress
Clint Eastwood for Best Actor
Bradley Cooper is snubbed for Best Director
Hugh Grant in Supporting Actor for Paddington 2
Lady Gaga snubbed for Actress
Michelle Yeoh nominated for Supporting Actress
On the basis of sex for Picture.
BEST PICTURE
A Quiet Place
BEST ACTOR
Ethan Hawke – First Reformed
BEST ACTRESS
Yalitza Aparicio – Roma
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
First Reformed
ANIMATED FEATURE
Ruben Brandt, Collector
COSTUME DESIGN
Crazy Rich Asians
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Crazy Rich Asians
SOUND MIXING
Avengers Infinity War
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Hale County
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Guilty
1. Debra Granik gets in for Best Director
2. Black Panther gets left out of the Best Picture line-up
3. Paul Schrader gets in for Best Original Screenplay
Hell, I’ll throw in another (assuming Black Panther does as well as most are expecting): Michael B. Jordan gets in for Best Supporting Actor.
NGNG!
Aparizio for best actress
Bohemian Rapsody gets director or screenplay
Nicole Kidman is a double nominee
Linda Cardinelli in Supporting Actress
Paddington 2 in Adapted Screenplay
For all the talk about how the Oscars are going to be more populist this year, Black Panther and Bohemian Rhapsody are snubbed leaving A Star is Born as the sole “popular” film nominated in Best Picture and reviving discussion about a separate category
My NGNG:
-Won’t You Be My Neighbor snubbed for Best Documentary (you know how unpredictable the Documentary nominations can be, although I really hope it’s not the case)
-Ralph Wrecks the Internet out; either Ruben Brandt, Collector, Liz and the Blue Bird, or Maquia in
-Christopher Robin for Best Visual Effects
1) Rachel Weisz is in (supporting) .. And Emma Stone is left out
2) Rachel Weisz gets in for Actress ( Disobedience)
3) Paul Schrader – director
Suspiria for Best Makeup
Avengers: Infinity War for Best Original Score
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse for Best Adapted Screenplay or Best Picture
1. Willem Dafoe is in for Actor
2. Stan & Ollie is in for Makeup
3. “Suspirium” is in for Song
I actually can’t believe Stan & Ollie is in last on gold derby… I have it in first right now, I won’t be surprised if it misses the nomination (since there are only 3 slots) but I think its more likely than not to be nominated.
N o b o d y saw Stan & Ollie.
Makeup branch members most likely did, and at least they got to see material from it at presentations
Obviously it wasn’t nominated, but I saw it yesterday and quite liked it. It would’ve been a fine nominee.
Yeah it’s a good little movie, but my comment was more in the realm of it had some important nominations and the academy seems to love well done fat suits paired with makeup and so it seemed pretty likely. Alas it didn’t happen but I definitely agree it would’ve been a fine nominee
I slept in so here goes my premeditated wildcards
– Black Panther won’t be nominated for Best Picture
– Crazy Rich Asians will
– Neither Emily Blunt nor Yalitza Aparicio will be nominated for Best Actress.
– Eighth Grade will be nominated for nothing
– Sorry To Bother You will get a Screenplay nomination
1. Lucas Hedges gets in for Best Actor (Boy Erased).
2. The Guilty for Foreign Language film.
3. The Rider for Original Sceenplay.
And, yes, I predicted all 3 of these on my contest form. Why not.
Worst Case NGNG:
Linda Cardinelli in Best Supporting Actress
Lady Gaga AND Regina King get snubbed for acting awards
Black Panther gets less than four nominations
Best Case NGNG:
Ryan Coogler and Barry Jenkins for Best Director
Michael B. Jordan in Best Supporting Actor
No Amy Adams for Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis AND Elsie Fisher for Best Actress
Julia Roberts gets in for Best Actress!
1. Crazy Rich Asians makes strong showing (Picture, Supporting Actress for Michelle Yeoh, Screenplay, Costume Design, Production Design)
2. “All the Stars” is snubbed in Original Song
3. Spike Lee snubbed in Director
NGNG:
Jeff Bridges for Supporting Actor (Bad Times at the El Royale)
Searching for Editing
Annihilation for Score
Off topic, GD experts still heavily behind Roma for the win but big shift to GB
Roma 16
A Star Is Born 9
Green Book 8
Melissa out, Nicole Kidman and Viola Davis in
Cold War for Best Picture, Best Director
Ayka gets in for Foreign Language
Yorgos Lanthimos, Best Director, The Favourite
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
First Man will lead nominations
Not ngng
Toni Collette, Best Actress, Hereditary
Yorgos Lanthimos, Best Director, The Favourite
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Best Picture
First man for Best Director and Best Actor
Black Panther for cinematography
BlackkKlansman for Score
Lady Gaga snubbed
Steven Yeun nom’d for supporting
Viggo misses actor
would love those three happening. Am I a bad person?
NGNG
– The Rider to be nominated in any category
– The Death of Stalin to get an acting nomination
– Lady Gaga and McCarthy and Blunt miss
Update: forgot the one I am actually (foolishly) predicting – Paul Schrader in Director
having either Steve Buscemi or – specially – Simon Russell Beale nominated for The Death of Stalin would rock my world.
Yes wouldn’t it be amazing? I preferred Buscemi over Russell Beale in Stalin but I have seen the latter on stage too and it was the best theatre performance I have ever seen.
I’d love to see them both nom’d… but I have the itch that I want to see a Monty Python win something at the Oscars some day, and I pity that Michael Palin’s role wasn’t meatier and more showy, so he could have given them an excuse for a nomination and a career win. How come that only Gilliam and Cleese are Oscar nominees? Idle was snubbed for his songs, can we believe that???
yeah Palin was pretty great in the movie. It’s a pity he hasn’t done more films outside of Python apart from The Missionary which is awful
A Fish called Wanda, but Kevin Kline stole all the heat for that film… it got noms for Supporting Actor (Won), Original Screenplay and Director… but Palin won the BAFTA for that one.
John Cleese is an Oscar nominee? That’s so cool! I didn’t know. For what movie?
Fish Called Wanda screenplay. He even won best actor at Bafta for it and Palin won supporting.
That’s awesome! I had no idea he had both written and acted in at. That’s grounds for moving it very close to the top of my To Watch ASAP list… 🙂
Terry Gilliam arguably should have won original screenplay for Brazil. At least he was nominated.
Same.
Buscemi is about as overdue as they come for a nod. He should’ve gotten in for Fargo and Ghost World.
The Rider has the NSFC’s stamp of approval, and that seems to matter for Oscars, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see it somewhere…
But then of course there was the Godard a few years ago that didn’t come within miles of the race
Obviously HIGHLY hit-or-miss – I never claimed otherwise. 🙂 But Phantom Thread last year, Amour, The Tree of Life, Winter’s Bone and even Letters from Iwo Jima earlier – movies that got no major guild attention whatsoever, yet made BP, most of them surprisingly -, not to mention all of the big contenders they’ve picked which have confirmed, strongly suggest that there’s a clear prestige there and Oscar voters probably look at the NSFC’s picks with a lot of respect, and are significantly more likely to go for them (or even just watch them in the first place) than if they hadn’t been singled out by that group.
So, of course, I’m not saying The Rider is LIKELY to get nominated for something. 🙂 I expect it won’t. (Because WHAT would that be?) Just that it wouldn’t surprise me too much, given the NSFC love…
Same goes for Burning, basically. (Which means I was probably dumb to not predict it for foreign, now that I think about it…)
I didn’t predict it either. As weird as these nominations in foreign language films can be, Burning is a film that demands time, thought and active consideration for it to make an impression (for example I’d say that it’s the best film of the year but I remember walking out of that screening at Cannes and being absolutely certain that it would only barely make my top 20 for the year), and thus I have Birds of Passage getting in before it because that film, as peculiar as it is in certain ways, feels more in sync with the group’s previous choices.
We were both equally right and wrong. 🙂 Because I also had precisely Birds of Passage in its place.
Robert Redford, Best Actor “Old Man and a Gun”
Meryls Streep, Best Supporting Actress “Mary Poppins Returns”
Paul Schrader, Best Director “First Reformed”
I’ll one up Sasha and predict First Man gets the most noms tomorrow morning with 13!
Pic
Director
Actor
Sup Actress
Writing
Editing
Production Design
Cinematography
Costumes
VFX
Score
Sound Editing
Sound Mixing
I love all 3 of Sasha’s, I was going to go with at least 2 of them. Instead:
I can’t bring myself to predict a Bradley Cooper miss so I will chuck this here
I can’t help but leave out Toni Collette but I will actually put Alex Wolff here too as a hope for hereditary.
Can You Ever Forgive me? rallies and gets director and picture.
Jonathan Pryce for Best Supporting Actor.
It’s so bizarre that he’s appeared nowhere in the awards race. Glenn Close’s biggest scenes are with him. (And a couple good ones with Christian Slater.)
Oh, haven’t you heard? The critics association that give out awards didn’t bother to watch The Wife and only nominated Glenn Close because she’s Glenn Close.
Off (or not so much off) topic… this is my Oscar nomination ballot for the contest (not what I would vote!)
Best Picture
– Black Panther – 10 noms
– BlacKkKlansman – 7 noms
– Bohemian Rhapsody – 7 noms
– The Favourite – 8 noms
– Green Book – 5 noms
– Roma – 5 noms
– A Star Is Born – 11 noms
– Vice – 5 noms
Best Director
– Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
– Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
– Peter Farrelly, Green Book
– Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
– Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Best Actor
– Christian Bale, Vice
– Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
– Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
– Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
– John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
Best Actress
– Glenn Close, The Wife
– Toni Collette, Hereditary
– Olivia Colman, The Favourite
– Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
– Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Best Supporting Actor
– Mahershala Ali, Green Book
– Timothy Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
– Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
– Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born
– Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Best Supporting Actress
– Amy Adams, Vice
– Claire Foy, First Man
– Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
– Emma Stone, The Favourite
– Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Best Adapted Screenplay
– BlacKkKlansman
– Can You Ever Forgive Me?
– Crazy Rich Asians
– If Beale Street Could Talk
– A Star Is Born
Best Original Screenplay
– The Favourite
– First Reformed
– Green Book
– Roma
– Vice
Best Animated Feature
– Incredibles 2
– Isle of Dogs
– Mirai
– Ralph Breaks the Internet
– Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse
Best Documentary Feature
– Free Solo
– Minding the Gap
– The Silence of Others
– Three Identical Strangers
– Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
Best Foreign Language Feature
– Burning
– Capernaum
– Cold War
– Roma
– Shoplifters
Best Cinematography
– Cold War
– First Man
– If Beale Street Could Talk
– Roma
– A Star Is Born
Best Costume Design
– Black Panther
– Bohemian Rhapsody
– Crazy Rich Asians
– The Favourite
– Mary Poppins Returns
Best Film Editing
– Black Panther
– BlacKkKlansman
– Bohemian Rhapsody
– First Man
– A Star Is Born
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
– Black Panther
– Bohemian Rhapsody
– Vice
* note: I think “Border” will actually take Bohemian Rhapsody’s spot here, but I am making a NGNG here, thinking the Guilds are REALLY going to love BR that much… and they’re going to love Malek’s teeth and wigs as much as they loved Kidman’s nose in “The Hours”.
Best Production Design
– Black Panther
– The Favourite
– First Man
– Mary Poppins Returns
– Mary Queen of Scots
Best Visual Effects
– Avengers: Infinity War
– Black Panther
– First Man
– Mary Poppins Returns
– Welcome to Marwen
Best Original Score
– Black Panther
– BlacKkKlansman
– Crazy Rich Asians
– First Man
– If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Original Song
– All the Stars (Black Panther)
– Girl in the Movies (Dumplin’)
– A Place Called Slaughter Race (Ralph Breaks the Internet)
– Shallow (A Star Is Born)
– Trip a Little Light Fantastic (Mary Poppins Returns)
Best Sound Mixing
– Black Panther
– Bohemian Rhapsody
– First Man
– A Quiet Place
– A Star Is Born
Best Sound Editing
– Black Panther
– Bohemian Rhapsody
– First Man
– A Quiet Place
– A Star Is Born
Most noms without Best Picture: First Man, 7 noms.
If Beale Street could talk 4 noms (Supporting Actress, Adapted, Score and Cinematography)
Apparently Carol with 6 is the most nominated movie to miss for BP in the era of the expanded ballot…
tomorrow that record is going to be broken… First Man salutes you, I think.
Possible, but my guess is it either gets 6, at most, or gets into BP.
Hmmmm…let’s see:
The Death of Stalin and If Beale Street Could Talk both in for Best Picture (also, a screenplay nom for Stalin and a costume design nom for Beale Street.
John David Washington out, Willem Dafoe in for Best Actor.
Marielle Heller replaces one of the guys (probably Farrelly or Lanthimos) in Best Director.
There’s going to be at least one acting nominee from a foreign film, but not necessarily one we might expect (Yalitza Aparicio in Roma)–Steven Yeun in Burning sounds good to me, because the people who like that film REALLY like it, and him, a lot.
There’s also going to be at least one “OMGWTFBBQ!!!” nomination in a major category that no one sees coming–because there almost always is–and somehow I’m thinking Supporting Actor may be the category that gets blown all to hell. I’m thinking Lin-Manuel Miranda or Dick Van Dyke–heck, maybe both of them–just might sneak in here. Lin-Manuel only needs an Oscar to become an EGOT, and the Academy loves being able to make that happen live, and Dick could conceivably get a nom or even a win as a career award; IIRC, he’s still very much liked in the business, although this probably is more of a NGNG than a you-just-never-know.
And, for a real NGNG in this category: I’ve seen Daniel Kaluuya mentioned for Widows, but I’m going to say either Robert Duvall or Colin Farrell for the same movie, because why the hell not. *big cheesy grin*
1) Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade) for Best Actress
2) Joanna Kulig (Cold War) for Best Actress
3) Nadine Labaki (Capernaum) for Best Director
4) The Distant Barking of Dogs for Best Documentary
5) Keep Reachin’ (Quincy) for Best Original Song
– Emily Blunt in for Mary Poppins Returns & A Quiet Place
– Bradley Cooper in for Producing, Acting, Directing and Writing
– Jonathan Pryce in Supporting Actor for The Wife
– A Quiet Place in for Writing & Best Picture
– Tobin Collette in for Lead Actress in Hereditary
Excellent list! I concur. I would add Cynthia Erivo for “Bad Times at El Royale,” (Best Supporting Actress), who was simply amazing! Additionally, I would add Best Supporting Actor mention : Michael B. Jordan for “Black Panther,” Best Actress potential nominee: Nicole Kidman for “Destroyer,” Lin-Manuel Miranda for Best Supporting Actor for “Mary Poppins Returns” and both Nicole Kidman and Lucas Hedges for “Boy Erased,” nominated in Best Supporting Actress and Best Actor, respectively.
NGNG
(‘Cause it’s always funny)
* Best Picture: “First Man” / “If Beale Street Could Talk”
* Best Director: Damien Chazelle, “First Man”/ Pawel Pawlikowski, “Cold War”
* Best Actor: Ethan Hawke, “First Reformed”/ Ryan Gosling, “First Man”
* Best Actress: Toni Colette, “Hereditary”/ Julia Roberts, “Ben is Back”
* Best Supporting Actor: Jonathan Pryce, “The Wife”/ Lucas Hedges, “Ben is Back”
* Best Supporting Actress: Margot Robbie, “Mary, Queen of Scots”/ Thomazin McKenzie, “Live No Trace”
Who knows…
I am predicting Schrader for Screenplay (but not Director), so I don’t think that alone is a NGNG! Here are my 3 – predictions I’m not making, but would be big surprises that wouldn’t totally shock me knowing the Academy:
(1) Best Picture snubs for Black Panther and/or Bohemian Rhapsody
(2) Viggo Mortensen misses Best Actor (I guess for both Hawke & Washington, or one of those and Dafoe)
(3) Bradley Cooper misses Best Director (i.e., Lanthimos, Pawlikowski, & McKay all make it in, or Farrelly)
Others, probably less likely and/or interesting, and in no particular order, are:
(4) First Man misses Editing (slow af)
(5) “All the Stars” misses Song
(6) Black Panther misses VFX (maybe half the people following the VES noms are already predicting this, but still)
(7) Crazy Rich Asians is nominated for Picture and Adapted Screenplay
(8) Isle of Dogs and/or Ralph Breaks the Internet misses Best Animated Feature
(9) ASIB misses Script in favor of, say, both Death of Stalin and Leave No Trace
(10) Cold War gets a Best Picture nomination (and Best Director)
(11) Toni Collette is nominated (over Aparicio and Blunt/McCarthy)
(12) Vice misses Screenplay (too messy and not beloved) so that both Eighth Grade and First Reformed can be nominated
(13) No Mary Poppins songs are nominated
(14) Vice misses Best Makeup (just because, you never know)
(15) Roma misses Best editing (technically it’s slower than First Man)
(16) Mary Queen of Scots is shut-out entirely (or Margot Robbie takes Claire Foy’s spot; you never know)
None of those first three would shock me either.
I’m actually predicting 9, 11, and 13. Also Mary Poppins missing score
I am with you on all 3 of those especially Collette
1. Buster Scruggs gets in for multiple categories including cinematography
2. Only Cuaron and Lee cross over from dga
3. Black Panther leads in nominations (but ends up winning 0)
1. Lupita Nyong’o (Black Panther) is nominated for supporting actress
2. “The Wife” is nominated for best picture
3. Josh Hamilton (Eighth Grade) is nominated for supporting actor
– Emily Blunt in Lead of A Quiet Place
– Michelle Yeoh in Best Supporting Actress
NGNG
– First Man getting Best Picture and Best Actor nods
– Yalitza Aparicio and Toni Colette for Best Actress and lady Gaga out
– Death of Stalin nominated for best adapted screenplay instead of A Star is Born
– Bohemian Rhapsody for Best Picture and Director instead of The Favorite
– Jonathan pryce in supporting actor for The Wife
Pushing this down the wire. My NGNG 2019 edition:
– Michelle Pfeiffer in “Where is Kyra?” gets in Lead Actress; Bradford Young also makes it in Cinematography (I don’t care who they bumping, it would make my year if both or one gets in)
– “Cold War” gets in Picture, Director, Original Screenplay and Lead Actress (didn’t include Cinematography coz I’m quite postive it’s getting in there)
– a Bohemian Rhapsody snub (that is all)
1) Ben Foster gets in for Best Actor for Leave No Trace
2) Hugh Grant slips in for Best Supporting Actor with Paddington 2
3) Lynne Ramsay gets in with You Were Never Really Here for Best Director
Eight Grade up for Picture and Original Screenplay
Bohemian Rhapsody only gets Malek and Sound Mixing nominations
BlacKkKlansman only gets Driver and Adapted nominations
The Death of Stalin surprise Adapted Screenplay nom
Steven Yeun gets a Supporting Actor nom
Black Panther for Adapted Screenplay
Green Book underperforms horribly and only score Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay noms.
No Amy Adams
2 Foreign Language Animated Feature nominees
The Silence of Others gets a nom in Documentary
A Place called Slaughter Race earns a nomination for Song
edit: I don’t consider First Reformed earning Picture, Director, Actor, Original Screenplay noms, NGNG… it wouldn’t surprise me AT ALL. Not predicting any of them, but it would be completely logical
1. Ralph Breaks the Internet snubbed for Animated Film, and Early Man takes its place.
2. Elizabeth Debicki from Widows nominated for Supporting Actress
3. All 3 Marvel films nominated for Visual Effects
Unless you are predicting Corey Stoll for Supporting Actor, I really don’t think any of these First Man NGNG are valid. It’s looking at five nominations minimum and is on the bubble in like seven categories.
Anyway:
1.) Lady Gaga misses Best Actress
2.) Nicole Kidman, Supporting Actress for Boy Erased
3.) Lynne Ramsay, Best Director for You Were Never Really Here
1. ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’ for Best Director and/or Original Screenplay
2. Rachel Weisz in Lead for ‘The Favourite’
3. ‘First Man’ reaps the most nominations.
“‘First Man’ reaps the most nominations.”
As with The Death of Stalin in screenplay, I don’t want to pick this, even though I was considering it, because if I do it’s definitely not only not going to happen, but First Man will miss more than it’s even expected to…
I predict the word “snub” will be used incorrectly about 323, 343 times tomorrow in the media and online. A true “snub” infers a willful disdain for a person or a film. Getting outvoted by your peers is not a “snub”.
Rami Malek out
Ryan Gosling in
– Six nominations for A Quiet Place: Picture, Supporting Actress (Emily Blunt), Original Screenplay, Score, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing
– Damian Chazelle and Ryan Gosling get nominations for First Man, which itself leads the field with 12 nominations: Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress (Foy), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Score, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Visual Effects
– Joanna Kulig for Cold War and Yalitza Aparicio for Roma get Actress nominations
No Timothee Chalemet for Supporting Actor
Ben Foster AND Thomasin McKenzie are nominated
Redford in
Redford’s a good one – I should have maybe picked him too…
1. A Star is Born gets most noms without best picture
2. Roma doesn’t get best pic nom
3. First Man makes strong showing
The Death of Stalin for Best Score
Rosamund Pike for Best Actress for A Private War
Daniel Kaluuya for Supporting for Widows
1. Sorry to bother you for original screenplay
2. Leave no trace for picture, director and supporting actress
3. Joaquin Phoenix for best actor (either don’t worry he won’t get far on foot or you were never really here)
Regina Hall for Best Actress in “Support the Girls”
Paul Schrader for Best Director
Elsie Fisher for Best Actress
Amy Adams missing Supporting Actress
Amber Heard for Supporting Actress in Aquaman
I defy someone to top that choice!
Nicole Kidman for Destroyer
Blackkklansman for Costume Design
Vice missing Best Picture
NGNG
Charlize Theron – Tully in best actress
Ryan Gosling – First Man in best actor
Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased in best supporting actress
and Amy Adams snubbed again. who knows ? lol 🙂
Off topic:
Confirmation that Roma was eligible for SAG, from, as always, Gold Derby:
https://www.goldderby.com/article/2019/roma-best-picture-oscar-winner-sag-ensemble-netflix-news/
“The film’s campaigners confirm to Gold Derby that while it was eligible, none of its cast belongs to SAG-AFTRA, which totals about 160,000 members.”
The snubs are all possible but the course for the win seems to be pretty much set in stone. If NGNG picks get in, they have little to zero chance of actually winning. As of today it’s looking like a Green Book, Christian, Glenn, Alfonso, Mahershala, Regina goldies playlist. Very diverse and not too alienating for anyone. A black & white best pic, two extreme whites from England and New England in lead and two blacks in supporting. Toss in Alfonso and it’s a spicy mix…and oh yeah, one character is gay.
1. Lee & Coogler are both nominated for Best Director
2. Bradley Cooper is snubbed on nominations for BOTH actor and director
3. Ballad of Buster Scruggs gets a screenplay nomination
I think supporting actor will be extremely volatile and I expect some surprises here. Like Michael B Jordan getting in. Director will also be one to watch. I think Lanthimos is in at the expense of Mckay. My NGNG for BP is First Man.
First Man is a bit borderline as NGNG, in my opinion. Probably just about qualifies…
NGNG: Eight Grade for Best Picture. Vice gets shut out except for Makeup. Spike Lee snubbed for Best Director.
-Linda Cardellini makes it in supporting actress
-Black Panther gets 8+ noms, but is snubbed in Best Picture, thus becoming the new record holder of most noms without a corresponding Best Pic nom.
-Someone without a SAG/Globe/Bafta nom makes it into Best Actress, like Yalitza Aparicio or Toni Collette
NGNG
1. BIG surprise in Best Actress (Ronan or Roberts or Jones)
2. ASIB underperforms (no BD, no script, only one acting nod) and Cold War overperforms (BD)
3. BIG surprise in Best Supporting Actress (Cardellini or Seyfried or Boynton or Simmonds)
Wish List
1. Rosamund Pike (best female lead performance for me from 2018, I wish she got at least the nod)
2. Lucas Hedges (banner year, would be deserving for both Boy Erased and Ben is Back)
3. Gemma Chan (I wish she had gotten a campaign, it was such a “star is born” turn, no pun intended)
I would add McKenzie as possible spoiler in BSA.
It’s odd that the two main faves to win, are aiming to a relatively low number of noms… Both Green Book and Roma are expected to have around 5 nominations only… while the most nominated films – expected to be the most, that is – like The Favourite, Black Panther and A Star is Born, are aiming to 8-11 noms and with high risk of ending emptyhanded or with one win (Shallow) in the case of ASiB… Tomorrow we’ll know if situation changes and Green Book and Roma overperform, nomination wise. Roma seems could sneak in both sound cathegories, and a surprise nom for Yalitza Aparicio… Green Book, maybe Film Editing, Production Design, Costume, Score… we’ll see.
Green Book didn’t make the shortlist for score, but watch out for editing and/or supporting actress.
I think my system might have a clear BP favorite after tomorrow. (And I kind of doubt it’ll be Green Book.) It depends on a few things…
The wife in best picture, Bohemian Rhapsody out
Charlize Theron take that fifth spot
Johnathan Pryce in best supporting actor
Annihilation catch a nomination for score
My NGNG:
– Bradley Cooper misses Director
– First Man in Best Picture and Director
– Amy Adams snubbed in Supp.
– Nicole Kidman in Supp.
John Krasinski, Scott Becks and Brian Woods – Best Original Screenplay (A Quiet Place)
Susanne Bier – Best Director (Bird Box)
Claire Foy – Best Actress/Supporting Actress (First Man)
My NGNG:
1) Willem Dafoe gets in for Best Actor for At Eternity’s Gate.
2) Joanna Kulig gets nominated for Best Actress for Cold War … and …
3) Searching gets in for Best Editing.
1. Cold War gets a Best Picture nomination
2. Felicity Jones gets a Best Actress nomination
3. Avengers gets a Sound nominaiton
John Krasinski, Scott Becks and Brian Woods – Best Original Screenplay (A Quiet Place)
Susanne Bier – Best Director (Bird Box)
Claire Foy – Best Actress/Supporting Actress (First Man)
Btw, the BBC website is currently musing over potential Oscar nominations, take a look here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-46948304
1. Brian Tyree Henry for Supporting Actor
2. First Reformed for Best Picture
3. Hereditary for Best Original Screenplay
1) Best Supporting Actor: Jonathan Pryce – The Wife
2) Best Supporting Actress: Marina de Tavira – Roma
3) Best Actor: Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate
1. Steve Yeun- Best Supporting Actor for Burning
2. Ryan Coogler- Best Director for Black Panther
3. Yalitza Aparicio- Best Actress for Roma
1) Two foreign language performances are rewarded, since both Yalitza Aparicio and Steven Yeun get nominated;
2) Mary Poppins Returns fails to be nominated both in Score and Song categories;
3) Suspiria receives mutiple nominations, for Song, MakeUp and Costume Design
BlacKkKlansman gets in for film editing, costume design, and cinematography
Annihilation for Best Picture
Annihilation for Best Director
Annihilation for Editing
1. Thom Yorke nominated for score AND song for Suspiria
2. Yalitza Aparicio gets Best Actress nomination for Roma
3. Clint Eastwood gets Best Actor nomination for The Mule
Make no mistake…these are NOT predictions.
NGNG are wish lists. They always were, and they always will be.
Mine at least aren’t. I hate a lot of A Quiet Place, I genuinely don’t care whether the actresses from The Favourite go lead or supporting and I’d think that A Star Is Born getting into sound mixing would be pretty cool.
So you also didn’t like A Quiet Place. 🙂 Glad we’re on the same side on that one…
Mine aren’t wishes either, at all. (Although I wouldn’t mind seeing Cold War in BP and BD – but I’m not rooting for it particularly hard, either. Kulig getting in would be awesome, though.)
NGNG:
Steven Yeun for best supp actor.
Michelle Yeoh and Linda Cardellini for supp actress.
Chloe Zhao for best director.
1) Julia Roberts in for Actress
2) Never Look Away in Foreign Language Film
3) Roma snubbed in Foreign Language Film
4) The Favourite leads nominations
Never Look Away was a Globe nominee. That makes it officially not an NGNG. Ayka in and Shoplifters out, that would be an NGNG.
NO GUTS. NO GLORY.
Lucas Hedges for Best Actor in “Boy Erased” (in a weaker year, he’d be “the guy”). While you’re at it, throw in a Supporting Actor nod for “Ben is Back” and it would round out an incredible year for this rising star. What a year for this actor!
Susan Sarandon for Best Actress in “Viper Club” (a picture virtually no one saw – a pity, because it’s Sarandon’s best role since “Dead Man’s Walking” – a beautiful, gutsy performance).
John Mathieson for Best Cinematography in “Mary Queen of Scots”
Bradley Cooper gets snubbed for Best Director.
– Black Panther misses Visual Effects
– Capernaum misses FLF
– Farelly misses directing
– Birds of Passage is nominated in FLF
– Willem Dafoe is nominated for Actor
– Leave No Trace gets in BP
1. Gaga misses actress, Cooper misses Director
2. Aparicio gets in Actress
3. Roma leads nominations
1) Julia Roberts gets in for Best Actress for ‘Ben is Back’ (This should be a sure thing, but sadly it is a longshot)
2) Paul Schrader gets in for Best Director and Best Original Screenplay for ‘First Reformed’
3) ‘The Rider’ gets in for Best Picture
Cold War for both Best Picture and Best Director
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born) snubbed for Best Actress
Amy Adams (Vice) snubbed for Best Supporting Actress
1. Lady Gaga does NOT get a Best Actress nomination.
2. The Academy ignores the category fraud and nominates Timothée Chalamet in Best Actor, as an apology for not giving him the Oscar he deserved last year.
3. Vice only gets a nod for Amy Adams in Supporting Actress, and nothing else.
1. Meryl Streep gets a Supporting Actress nomination for Mary Poppins Returns
2. Spike Lee gets snubbed in Best Director
3. Avengers: Infinity War gets a Best Picture nomination
“Spike Lee gets snubbed in Best Director”
So I’m not the only crazy person who thinks this might happen… 🙂
I am worried, BKKKM will only be nominated in Adapted and “maybe” in Supporting Actor. Still, logic says it will be nominated in Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted at the very least, with real chances at Actor, Film Editing and Score.
No, I mean, I don’t think it’s likely – I think it gets its 4-5 nods, at least. I just smell an Oscar snub for one of the DGA five that’s not Farrelly or McKay, and Spike seems like the most vulnerable out of the other three… But maybe it’s just Farrelly. (McKay, who I’m predicting to be replaced, wouldn’t be a big snub.)
I do too.
My other two NGNGs would be:
Teen Titans Go! To The Movies in for Animated Feature.
Birds of Passage in Foreign Language over both Burning *and* Cold War.
(After all, the imdb rating of the first is currently higher than both the second and third.)
Nicole Kidman supporting actress in Boy erased
Julia Roberts best actress in Ben is back
Viola Davis best actress in Widows
Ethan Hawke best actor in First reformed
1. Avengers: Infinity War gets in for Original Score and Sound Editing. It’s not only nominated for Visual Effects.
2. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms gets in for Costume Design.
3. Black Panther gets snubbed for Visual Effects.
“Black Panther gets snubbed for Visual Effects.”
Also one I considered going for…
I know it just won the BFCA and got a BAFTA nom in this category, but is it really still an NGNG, given that it was totally blanked by the VES?
I think it still is, barely, because the movie is (presumably) just too popular overall. But it definitely won’t surprise me if it misses.
Yes sadly. I hope it misses vfx too because I’m worried if it gets nominated there to too many ignorant voters will just automatically pick it to win even though the vfx are average at best.
Toni Collette for Best Actress. Of course.
How to miss out on an Oscar nomination.
1. Star in a horror film
2. Early release
3. No campaign
4. Have no pundits talking about you
5. Don’t turn up to any awards shows, even if you are nominated (and win)
Toni Collette gets in for Best Actress, snubbing Emily Blunt
Thom Yorke gets nominated in Best Song category (won’t but what the hell, right?)
Less support for Boheman Rhapsody (Malek and some techs only) that we anticipated.
NGNG:
BEST ACTRESS: Nicole Kidman for Destroyer & Viola Davis for Widows both get in. Melissa McCarthy & Emily Blunt get snubbed.
BEST DIRECTOR: Barry Jenkins for If Beale Street Could Talk
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Brian Tyree Henry for If Beale Street Could Talk
This would be amazing if it came true!!
It WOULD be amazing! Here’s hoping!
1) Nicole Kidman gets double nomination
2) Alex Wolff get in for Supporting Actor
3) Ben Forter gets in for Leave no Trace
Now number 3, that’s truly an NGNG 😉
Cold War gets in for picture, director and cinematography
A Wrinkle in Time for costumes
Sound Editing and Sound Mixing actually look a lot different for the first time in my memory.
The Guilty and Birds of Passage get in for foreign language
Ruben Brandt, Collector sneaks into Animated.
1. Thom Yorke’s original score for “Suspiria”
2. Jermaine Fowler, supp actor for “Sorry to Bother You”
3. Foreign Language feature to “Shoplifters.”
1. Elsie Fisher gets nominated for Actress
2. Ready Player One gets nominated for Original Score
3. The Nutcracker gets nominated for Costumes
Can’t believe that I’ll use the words ‘deserves’, Oscar and ‘nutcracker’ in the same sentence. But I agree that The Nutcracker and the Four Realms deserves to nominated for its Costumes.
Nutcracker was a movie made only to receive a Costume (or a Production Design) nomination.
Thomasin McKenzie for supporting actress
Steven Yeun makes supporting actor
Suspiria in makeup
High hopes for these three.
01) Emily Blunt gets a doible nod
02) Lady Gaga snub in Best Actress
03) Elizabeth Debicki gets a Best supporting actress nod
Yalitza Aparicio for Best Actress
Black Panther underperforms and gets a few tech categories other than best picture
Peter Farrelly snubbed for best director
1 and 3 feel very possible.
Sasha stole mine: First Man, DamienChazelle, and Josh Singer.
1. Lady Gaga snubbed for Best Actress.
2. Helena Howard for Best Actress.
3. Spider-Man: into the Spider-verse snubbed for Best Animated Feature.
Debra Granik gets into Best Director and Thomasin McKenzie gets nominated.
1) Cold War gets in for Best Director
2) Buster Scruggs for Screenplay
4) Viola Davis for Widows
Alfonso Cuaron not nominated for best director cause everyone assumed he was in and some other passion pick takes his place – Jenkins, Lathimos,Granik, Pawlikowski, Schrader, Zhao.
I’ve always thought this could happen when people assume others will put an option as their #1.
Natalie Portman for Best Supporting Actress (that fifth slot looks SO open)
Regina King snubbed (although this is hardly a NGNG)
Roma snubbed in either Screenplay, Editing or Production Design
Nicholas Hoult for Supporting Actor
Chloe Zhao for Directing
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse for Adapted
1) Amy Adams snubbed for Bes Supporting Actrees
2) Rami Malek snubbed for Best Actor
3) Emily Blunt in Lead but for A Quiet Place
4) M.B. Jordan in Best Supporting Actor
1) No Regina King for Best SActress
2) Regina Hall for Best Actress
3) Eighth Grade for Best Picture
4) No MPR for Best Song
Is 4 NGNG when it’s what the Globes did?
1. The Favourite gets three best actress nominations, making supporting actress the most peculiarly empty race of the year
2. A Quiet Place gets 6 nominations
3. Both A Star Is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody miss both sound nominations
What was the last film to get 3 acting nominations in the same category? The Godfather?
And in lead I think Mutiny on the Bounty is the last (only?) one, in 1935 or whatever it was.
It was The her Godfather Part II – Robert de Niro, Michael V. Gazzo, and Lee Strasbourg – and de Niro won. Jeff Bridges and the favorite – Fred Astaire – were the other nominees. Everyone thought Astair would receive a “career” Oscar for “The Towering Inferno”. Luckily, more level heads prevailed and de Niro won. It was a surprise, though. I love surprises.
And for women I think it was 1963 – Tom Jones. Diane Cilento, Dame Edith Evans, and ? ? ? ? can’t remember. In Supporting Actress category.
For the record, Joyce Redman is the third supporting actress nominee from Tom Jones
Like Claudiu mentioned, 3 lead nominations has only happened with Mutiny on the Bounty. But in general, it’s actually The Godfather Part II
Ryan Gosling, Joanna Kulig, Marina de Tavira
1. Bohemian Rhapsody and Black Panther get into “Best Popular Film” instead of “Best Picture”
2. Thom Yorke gets a nomination for “Best song”
3. “Cold War” emerges as this years “Phantom Thread”
“”Cold War” emerges as this years “Phantom Thread””
You should maybe define that better. 🙂 Picture, director, cinematography, foreign… what else?
1. Nicholas Hoult for Best Supporting Actor
2. Brian Tyree Henry for Best Supporting Actor
3. Joanna Kulig for Best Actress (Lady Gaga snubbed)
1. No Melissa McCarthy in Actress
2. Jonathan Pryce gets in for Supporting for The Wife
3. Sorry to Bother You gets in for Screenplay
1) Gaga snubbed in Best Actress
2) Robert Redford gets in Best Actor
3) No Vice in Picture, Director, Supporting Actress or Screenplay
Three foreign films will be nominated for best picture.
Roma, Cold War and…?
Shoplifters or Burning … or Capernaum.
1) Barry Jenkins in Best Director
2) Linda Cardellini in Supporting Actress
3) A Star Is Born snubbed in Screenplay
4) Vice misses out on Best Picture nom
Not sure how NGNG those are to everyone else because I can 100% see those things happening. Haha
Vice missing for BP is definitely NGNG (stats), as is Cardellini. The other two, not so much.
NGNG:
-Barry Jenkins, Spike Lee, and Ryan Coogler all get in for Best Director.
-Emily Blunt gets nominated in both Lead Actress and Supporting Actress.
-Hereditary gets one nomination.
Emily Blunt is in lead actress for A Quiet Place.
Leave No Trace gets picture, director, actor, screenplay (No nomination for Thomasin McKenzie)
Linda Cardellini for supporting actress (which is a possible NGNG)
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs for Best Song.
Bohemian Rhapsody for cinematography while Beale Street and First Man snubbed.
Elsie Fisher and Thomasin McKenzie both nominated.
1) The Favourite gets “Carol’d” missing a BP nom
2) Ruben Brandt gets an Animated Feature nom
3) There are only seven BP noms
Good guess! I’ve been wondering if the Academy will pull a fast one and only nominate 7 films.
I also thought #1 could happen, the Carol snub was similarly shocking (especially considering Brooklyn got in).
Carol did get snubbed at the PGA. (Similarly to Beale Street I could add, but I don’t think everyone is predicting that one to be 100% in)
NGNG:
1) if beal Street could talk snubbed for best screenplay
2) Marina de tavira nominated for best supporting actress
3) vice snubbed for best picture ,director and screenplay
NBNG
— Michelle Yeoh gets in for Best Supporting Actress (Don’t understand why she hasn’t been in the conversation in the first place)
— Emily Blunt gets TWO nominations Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress and her husband John Krasinski gets a nomination for Best Screenplay (Hollywood needs a new royal couple)
— Won’t You Be My Neighbor is shockingly snubbed in Best Doc (I mean, they always do something scandalously wrong in this category)
Linda Cardellini for Supporting Actress
No BlacKkKlansman for Best Picture
1) Pawel Pawlikowski gets in for Director;
2) Lin Manuel Miranda gets in for Actor;
3) The Guilty gets in for Best Foreign Language Film
The Guilty is actually one of my predictions for FLF.
Cold War ends up with nominations for picture, director, actress, and cinematography