FILM
FEATURE FILM
• Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
• TIM WARDLE for “Three Identical Strangers”
FIRST-TIME FEATURE FILM
• BO BURNHAM, “Eighth Grade”
TELEVISION
DRAMA SERIES
• Adam McKay, “Succession,” “Celebration”
LIMITED SERIES
• Ben Stiller, Escape at Dannemora
COMEDY SERIES
• BILL HADER — Barry, “Chapter One: Make Your Mark”
REALITY PROGRAMS
• RUSSELL NORMAN — The Final Table, “Japan”
VARIETY – REGULARLY SCHEDULED PROGRAMS
• DON ROY KING — Saturday Night Live, “Adam Driver; Kanye West”
CHILDREN’S PROGRAMS
• JACK JAMESON — Sesame Street, “When You Wish Upon a Pickle: A Sesame Street Special”
VARIETY/TALK/NEWS/SPORTS – SPECIALS
• LOUIS J. HORVITZ — The 60th Grammy Awards
COMMERCIALS
• SPIKE JONZE, Welcome Home, Apple Homepod
Otto man: “You think you get them all, but you forget about the eggs.”
So are they really going to say let’s shun Singer but let’s reward his friend who has bee by his side for two decades? The Oscar should go to Blackkk which has the best editing by a respected editor or “The Favourite”. And even though “Vice” is terrible, for me, the editing stands out as it did in TBS, so I would be happy to see Conwin win for his good work on both films. Even GB would better choice than BR and Ottman.
WGA original Screenplay is very weak this year so it cannot tell us much. The two Films that dominated the category aren’t even nominated there so it doesn’t really mean much. If GB wins, which looks the mostly likely, it’s not a strong frontrunner if at all. Three Billboards was stronger in screenplay and BP but it lost both in the end. Three Billboards won Globes (“Get Out” wasn’t even nominated) and BAFTA. It bettered “Get Out” in those two major precursors while it lost to “Get Out” at the BFCA. And yet “Get Out” came out on top thanks to Peale’s extra nomination for BD and the BFCA win. It is true that GB doesn’t have to overcome BFCA loss but it is also obvious that nobody except the Globes think its screenplay is better than “The Favourite” and “First Reformed”, or even “Roma”. It is only the Globes win which is cloudy things. WGA might be forced to award it since it doesn’t have much competition but I believe the BAFTA winner will likely win the Oscar.
Is Awardsdaily campaigning for ASIB? What’s with that big header Consider A Star is Born?
Advertising
Only for ASIB or for other movies as well?
Usually it’s changing quite often. But, I guess, whoever pays.
The combination of social media scrutinity, which became a rule after the infamous La La Land hate campaign, and preferential ballot will probably avoid a No Country for Old Men and Slumdog Millionaire sweep ever again.
Unlike many, I don’t think Roma will suffer in the preferential ballot with the Academy changing membership. It will have by far the most number ones and I guess few will put it outside top 5 in a lineup with so many divisive films. I see Green Book having more problems in this scenario with the new membership.
Beyond happy for Alfonso. Go get all the Oscars, you freaking genius, you deserve them. 🙂 Roma is to me undoubtedly one of the few truly great films of the last decade, the work of a true master. The fact that it leads The Oscar nominations along with The Favourite, another one of those few truly exceptional films we had the privilege of watching over the last few years films me with joy. It’s one of the many, many reasons it pisses me off that in a year like this and in a year of so many incredible films that were sadly left out of the Best Picture category (First Man, If Beale Street Could Talk, Eighth Grade, First Reformed, Hereditary, Widows, etc.), we have the most embarrassing BP Oscar nominee in the last 30 years or something with Bohemian Rhapsody. I mean that’s a film that truly doesn’t deserve the company it enjoys.
so… it seems:
Picture: Green Book 50% – Roma 40% – Bohemian Rhapsody 10% (Editing + Acting frontrunner)
Director: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma (lock)
Actor: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (lock)
Actress: Glenn Close, The Wife (lock)
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali, Green Book (lock)
Supporting Actress: Regina King, If Beale Street could talk 70% – Amy Adams, Vice 30%
Original Screenplay – Green Book 80% – The Favourite 20%
Adapted Screenplay – BlacKkKlansman 33% – A Star is Born 33% – If Beale Street could talk 33% – other 1%
Animated – Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse (lock)
Doc: Free Solo 80% – Minding the gap 20%
Foreign: Roma (seems locked, but in here, you never can tell)
Cinematography: Roma (lock)
Score: If Beale Street could talk (almost locked)
Song: Shallow, A Star is Born (lock)
Production Design: The Favourite (almost locked)
Costume: The Favourite (almost locked)
Film Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody (almost locked)
Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody (likely)
Sound Editing: Bohemian Rhapsoy (likely). Both A Quiet Place and Roma may upset here, easily. Even First Man
Visual Effects: Infinity War (50%) – Christopher Robin (50%)
Make up: Vice (lock)
Or so I think right now.
I pretty much agree with you apart from Supporting Actress. I want to see what BAFTA do then I will decide.
Picture: Where does A Star Is Born stand?
Visual Effects: What are Ready Player One and First Man’s chances? Also, for Christopher Robin…..how does it have a 50% chance, when it hasn’t won any film award for over 3 months?
Picture. ASIB; slim and none, and slim just left town.
You’re seriously off if you think Amy has 30% chances and everybody else but Regina has 0%…
In a weird way, I think the winner will likely be one of the three nominees not to have won Oscar yet. I think it’s King or Adams. King has won the most precursors as well as almost all the critics awards including the three major groups. Adams has an overdue narrative which hasn’t so far materialised but it could happen when there is no clear favourite. I mean King is favourite but she still did miss SAG and that might hamper her chances.
Agreed. (It’s so weird to me to acknowledge somebody might be the favorite in spite of BOTH SAG and BAFTA snubs – but there it is… Seems to be the case… For now, at least. We’ll see if I change my mind once I study the stats in-depth.)
Why does Free Solo get 80% when it hasn’t really won anything of note? Basically Won’t You Be My Neighbor? and Three Identical Strangers (neither of which have Oscar noms) have won everything thus far. It could really go to any of them, but probably RBG, Free Solo, or Minding the Gap.
Just won the Eddie
Agree with those predicitions. I’d rather see RBG winning doc, but Free Solo seems more a safe bet by now (without Won’t You Be My Neighbor? and Three Identical Strangers on the race) and I’d put Adams in 3th for supporting actress, I guess Rachel Weisz is a little bit stronger, although I’m predecting Regina’s winning
Like I said, the DGA NEVER fails to be boring…
they still awarded McKay for TV and awarded Burnham instead of Cooper…that definitely surprised many
Oh, yeah, I’m sure they’re brilliant at giving us upsets in the categories that don’t matter at all for Best Picture!… 🙂 Which makes it even MORE frustrating.
Still burns me that BCoop couldn’t even get a consolation prize for his first feature. That was just jealousy over a triple Oscar nominee being told to stay in his lane.
“That was just jealousy over a triple Oscar nominee being told to stay in his lane.”
yes YES!
In his quest to seize a DGA award, Bradley Cooper’s fatal blunder was getting 3 Oscar nominations.
That’s bound to make the directors guild seethe with jealousy.
If only Bradley had done what Alfonso did — and got 5 Oscar nominations — then the directors guild would have been too befuddled to be jealous.
What do you mean? Everyone was predicting Roma…
Hence the double negative.
David and aroncido answered that. 🙂
Boring maybe, but very reliable.
Depends for what… 🙂
For BD, obviously. But also looks likely for BP too this year.
I agree with those two things. 🙂
Even though it has won absolutely zero precursor awards, I stand by my BlacKkKlansman for Best Picture prediction. I will be wrong, I know it, but I can’t put anything else in its place right now.
Stand by all you like, but you’re wrong, it’s lost everything so far and is losing BP. I don’t even think it’s second at this point.
Literally the second sentence I wrote.
Let me suggest you put Roma or Green Book in its place
No. I’m good.
Not sure how it could be second. Green Book is second having won PGA. The Favourite is probably third if it wins a lot at BAFTA – otherwise, maybe Black Panther with SAG?
No best picture winner in recent memory won nothing this late in the game, absolutely nothing….
Let me quote myself:
Just got back from the Iowa Psychics of the Midwest Society. Lots of upsets happening at the Oscars! Pay no attention to these so called precursors. They mean nothing. My readings have been especially strong this year as I took a trip to an exotic land that allowed me to see the world as it is- the Mall of America in Minneapolis. If that doesn’t show you how our country really is thinking and evolving, nothing will.
Here are my forecasts for the Oscar winners. Don’t look unless you want to be bored Oscar Sunday!
Best Picture – A Star is Born
Preferential ballot is going to get this underdog to the “safe” slot. It will be the biggest surprise of the evening. Lady Gaga won’t cry; Bradley will. Roma is a confusing mess with words that flash on the screen a lot. My co-psychic Helen and me kept muttering “What’s she saying for Pete’s sake??” To the annoyance of our fellow movie patrons.
Green Book was ok. But my senses say it only wins Film Editing. It’s a simplified crowd pleaser and the academy will reward it that and nothing else. Black Panther and BlacKKKlansman will cancel each other out. So will the bizarre Favorite movie and that terrible film about Mike Pence. What were the filmmakers thinking shooting a film about our current VP??
Best Actor – Rami Malek
This is the only basic win my readings are seeing. He’s so popular even my psychics in England claim he’s the one.
Best Actress – Lady Gaga
It will be the upset of the night. Glenn Close was ok in The Wife, but the movie should have been called The Writer (who sits around a lot looking bug eyed). Close always looks like she’s holding her breath under water. Only the last 10 minutes had her hit it home with those curse words flying across the screen. She’ll win another time. Gaga didn’t wear makeup and that to me shows she’s not afraid to play ugly.
Best Supporting Actor – Richard E Grant
If you saw his performance you’ll know why the academy is going to kickball the trophy to him. Ali just won and Green Book is Viggos movie.
Best Supporting Actress- (tie): Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone.
Prepare for the first tie ever in this category! Voters love both these ladies and the movie doesn’t work without their radiance. Regina sadly is in a movie nobody saw or heard of. Beale Street sounds like Sesame Street. What’s this film about?? And Amy Adams?? That’s a laugh.
Best Director – Spike Lee
The big big Upset of the night. Nobody will predict him but Sasha- and she will get all the praise at Goldderby for doing so. This man is overdue and Cuaron isn’t winning a second trophy after directing Sandra in that outer space film.
Best Adapted Screenplay – A Star is Born
Cooper wins along with Eric Roth. Though some of my gals think Can You Ever Forgive Me? But the movie is about plagiarism. Won’t sit well with older steak eaters.
Best Original Screenplay – The Favourite
Deserving too. Why isn’t Eighth Grade here? That was the most realistic depiction of middle school I’ve ever seen. Real kids playing real kids. Not 25 year old models.
Good luck everyone !!
Sorry your comment here spent the past 4 hours in the spam filter, Ms. Withers.
Yes Cuaron. This was expected big time. Yes ROMA will also win Best Picture.
My Oscar Predictions
BEST PICTURE WINNER:
Roma
Green Book
A Star Is Born
Black Panther
or BlackKklansman
BEST ACTOR WINNER:
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
or Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
BEST ACTRESS WINNER:
Glenn Close, The Wife
or Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
or Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR WINNER:
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me
or Sam Elliot, A Star is Born
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS WINNER:
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
or Emma Stone, The Favourite
BEST DIRECTOR WINNER
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
or Spike Lee, BlacKKKlansman
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY WINNER
Green Book
Roma
or it might be First Reformed
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY WINNER
BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk
or A Star Is Born
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY WINNER
Roma
A Star Is Born
or The Favourite
BEST SOUND EDITING WINNER
Black Panther
Roma
or First Man
BEST SOUND MIXING WINNER
Black Panther
A Star Is Born
or Roma
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN WINNER:
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS WINNER
Avengers Infinity War
or First Man
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE WINNER
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
BEST ORIGINAL SONG WINNER
Shallow – A Star Is Born
All The Stars – Black Panther
BEST COSTUME DESIGN WINNER
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
BEST MAKEUP & HAIR WINNER
Mary Queen of Scots
or Vice
Still trying to figure out how is Border a better nomination than Black Panther, A Star Is Born, and BlackKklansman.
BEST ANIMATED FILM WINNER
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
or Incredibles 2
BEST FILM EDITING
BlacKkKlansman
The Favourite
Green Book
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Roma
or Cold War
BEST DOCUMENTARY – FEATURE
RBG
or Free Solo
BEST DOCUMENARY – SHORT SUBJECT
Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
or A Night at The Garden
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Animal Behaviour
Late Afternoon
or Weekends
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Fauve
Marguerite
or Mother
Bradley Cooper? Not on this planet.
I don’t know about that, I mean his film “A Star Is Born” has gotten a lot of praise.
And it also has been doing terribly at awards shows. It’s a bold prediction at this point, I have to say.
Sad but true
You can predict whoever you want of course but Cooper has been losing awards left and right. He’s definitely not winning BAFTA. So him winning the Oscar with no precursor award is practically impossible.
At least Spike Lee is a lock for Adapted Screenplay, right?
He got snubbed for the Scripter, a precursor nomination that is 100% for Adapted Screenplay wins.
I still think he’s a lock. They don’t wanna him leaving empty handed.
I hope Roma doesn’t win BP. It’s great; but it largely lacks what it takes to carry the burden of the BP Oscar; ultimately an American award. Similarly, I don’t think any recent foreign film could have pulled it off. In this century, not even No Country for Old Men (a masterpiece and the best film of the year) has been able to avoid certain backlash. You have to go back to Unforgiven to find that rare occurrence of an irreproachable winner. Roma is a large film, but it’s way too subtle at times, delicate if you will. Let something else take this hot potato.
I totally agree with you. See what I wrote in the comment below. It is a film that you respect more than you like or love. So overrated. And I really think streaming movies should not be allowed to compete for Oscars.
I respect it, I like it, and I love it.
Twin Peaks: The Return is now streaming online and should have won BP last year.
So, you have to decide yourself, because it is not exactly what your first comment try to say.
I don’t what you’re going on about. Let’s leave it at that.
I think it will be received well historically as a Best Picture winner. It’s quite an unusual choice for the Academy, but something they will be proud of having anointed in the long term. It will be one of the few non-populist critics’-#1 Best Picture choices that will stand the test of time, somewhat like No Country and Moonlight.
Oh I agree. All things considered, it will be viewed as one of the good winners.
I don’t think “Moonlight” win is aging well. Today the film is more remembered by unfairly have won over ‘La La Land” or the envelope episode.
“unfairly”? Lol. “Moonlight” – in words of Emma Stone right after winning her Oscar – is “one of the best films of all time”.
A lesson on art and cinema:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ot9DX5S8aHk
Well, it is your opinion.
you didn’t even bothered in checking out the video essay I linked,,, did you? In this internet age, there’s the completely wrong and suicidal sense that all opinions matter the same and are of the same value. That’s how Trump got elected, by the way.
Sir, I have watched the film. So, I don’t think it is necessary to re watch again. You don’t need to give me lessons. This is democracy, and this is where it stands. For me it is a film that unfairly won over a superior film and for you it is a work of art. Period. Don’t try to be a political standart or model over me.
well, just to point the obvious… you can watch an astronomy chart and give your opinion over it… but if you haven’t studied astronomy, you won’t be even scratching the surface of its meaning and implications.
Same with cinema. In my case, I studied – in the University – 3 years of arts and 1 year of (specifically) history and technique both of photography and cinema. Top honors, by the way. This means, I have the right tools and background and experience to understand art and film and give a based, unbiased opinion – which another expert may disagree with, fair enough.
But if you want to freely discuss how an Oscar-baity masturbatory musical on the AMPAS members that basically massaged their muscles in order to the voting days, by telling them “I recognise how many sacrifices you did to get there, and it’s all good, you deserve your success” might be superior to a multilayered, perfectly calculated study on human condition, perseverance, trauma, bullying, self-acceptance, discrimination and way more concepts, summarized in visual and aural poetry, that rendered the AMPAS speechless, so they got over the “urge” to reward “La La Land” (14 noms! some really ridiculous like Production Design and Costume) pretending the musical was on par – L-O-L – or superior even – SUPERMEGALOL – with “Singin’ in the Rain”, “An American in Paris”, “Cabaret”, “Hair”, “All that Jazz”… well, this is the moment, you can start calling me arrogant or egocentric or even a bully… but unless you back your opinion with real arguments, you come out as what we call in Spain “Cuñado” (brother in law: term referred to people who talk about anything without having a basic base to understand the theme invoked).
So, summarizing:
Like or not like a film: completely fair.
Disrespecting a film or calling another one “superior”: back your argument or shut the fuck up. “Democracy” is not that everyone can say what they think. “Democracy” is that everyone is informed and educated enough to give a proper, reasoned opinion. This is this society drama: people think they’re photographers just because they just applied an instagram filter.
Sir, I am a WGA member and you really want to teach me cinema?
maybe I could. Last time I remembered, to join an Union, never meant you would be an expert on than matter.
Really? Explain how. I would love to see and read more of your thinking. You arguing about Morality in America nowadays. I am really enoying it. I am even feeling like I am in the McCarthyism days with your words.
You wouldn’t like my opinion on the USA. I can summarize it, though, with this: I don’t consider the USA a country or a nation, just a mere extension of stock markets, corporations and banks, the ultimate state of corporate fascism, and the world’s biggest danger, even more so, than China or Russia.
Well, you look really confused. In one comment you defend “Moonlight” and its human condition. In the other, you put Russia and China, countries that kill gays for being gays as examples of democracy. Maybe we should stop our conversation.
to be clear, even more clear. My opinion on “La La Land” and “Moonlight” is based upon DECONSTRUCTING and ANALYZING both films, themes and messages, plus its technique and external background.
As, by the way, I do every year with every Oscar film
I agree that Moonlight is a better film than La La Land but your responses to Jhonny make it sound like you seem to presume that studying film for a year gives you a moral highground, and an objective viewpoint that lets you claim objective truths about films that others can’t see. Do you seriously think that no one else deconstructs, analyzes or thinks about films during and after they watch them and just randomly picks an opinion on them? I appreciate your comments and opinions but the presumptions you’re making here are really off. Film is an artform, thus it’s not objective and someone disagreeing with you is not because they’re lesser film viewers.
It’s all well and good that you think La La Land is a better film, but how was Moonlight’s win “unfair”? To use the phrase implies a rigged system where rules are broken. Moonlight won fair and square on the preferential ballot. There was nothing unfair about it winning Best Picture.
Because when you read and hear people saying “I didn’t watch the film, but I am voting for it because of Trump and the moment we live in the USA”, I don’t think it is fair enough. Judge for yourself. “Moonlight” looks like a film you do when you finish college and need to present a conclusion. And also, I doubt that in a plurality ballot, La La Land would have lost. This is an amazing and lovely film and really a tour de force cinema. It is cinema in its more pure art and dreams. All the industry were so shocked on what happened, that they cleared ignored “If Baele Street Could Talk” all the way they could. But of course, you can desagree with me.
Your last statement fails. Look how they ignored First Man.
But it is shared by many. Moonlight regularly ranks highly among Best picture winners, if you look at some lists.
Was King’s Speech an American award?
The Oscars (AMPAS) are an American institution/organisation based in the United States of America and regulated by California/Federal laws and Beverly Hills ordinances whose membership dispenses awards every calendar year. Clear?
So British films that win Best Picture are ok and won’t cause an existential crisis for the Academy but a Mexican film winning would be the end of cinema itself
What the hell are you talking about the end of cinema. Did you mean to reply to someone else?
Directing it you. You called the Oscar an “American award” thus disqualifying Roma, but you conveniently decided that somehow British films are acceptable to win BP.
When did I say any of this?
Your original comment. Don’t be so obtuse.
Just say you don’t think Roma is better than the other nominated films, I’d actually respect that.
But you chose to bang on the language of the film as the main disqualifying factor. It’s lazy, and your overly defensive reactions to legitimate questions of mine kind of confirm that.
I don’t think he meant to say any of that with his comment though. I think his point was that winning Best Picture is a burden that can stain the legacy of any film.
Yes thank you. I need to get better at being more concise.
I am flabbergasted. I’d encourage slowly reading the comment again. Roma is my favorite Best Picture nominee. The most honest, emotionally engaging and aesthetically accomplished of all the nominees. My comment refers to my fears at the prospect of “BP winner” backlash and what that could mean for a film of Roma‘s nature and its future reputation. I don’t believe it’s a film that could easily consolidate into a generally accepted winner any time soon.
The Oscars are an American awards and will remain so regardless of whether Roman wins or not; what is so controversial about that statement? Why are you using words about “disqualifying” or “end of cinema” or whatever the hell else you’re talking about to describe my comment? I specifically said many films are not capable of bearing the burden of a BP win and few bear it as poorly as The King’s Speech one of the most derided films to ever win that award. Derided by me for instance.
If Roma wins its legacy will be breaking through a ceiling no one thought would ever be breached.
I guess if the movie is good, I don’t care about its legacy of winning awards or not winning awards. I’m glad when my favorites win, but I don’t believe such “achievements” remain relevant a few days past the ceremony. Awards history is largely trivial beyond trivia fascination. To Be or Not to Be, The Wild Bunch and Zodiac won zero Oscars while The King’s Speech legacy is not even a subject anyone has the slightest inclination to discuss in 2019.
Jesus Alonso has a strong inclination to discuss that subject… 🙂 But he IS the only one, of course.
lookie here! it’s tonight’s featured comment
(what’s more, it will remain relevant for many many years.)
Yasss I made it!
I doff my hat to you. Pete, you have woken the beast.
PS: I believe “Zodiac” is the most overlooked film this. It’s Fincher’s best yet people crow about TSN.
I do think it’s his best too.
‘The King’s Speech’ will have a legacy as long as I am alive. I will make a point to watch it regularly if only just to prove you wrong!
❤️
One of my favorite Bryce modes is calm clear-eyed verge-of-rant-but-also-serenely-chill Bryce.
Wayyy on-the-verge
Honestly, it is not bad faith, but I think “Roma” will lose the Oscar because of the preferential ballot issue. “Green Book” looks like a consensus choice and it perfect fits the Oscar ballot shape. People really love or hate “Roma”, the first half of the film is very slow, and Netflix is playing very hard to win this. At this point, this win looks so forced, like it was with “The Artist”. Humor has “Roma” has been boycotted by some contigents of the Academy. It can have many #1 and # 2 votes, but I see many #7 or # 8 vote for example. As I don’t see it winning in the first round, I think it will be very difficult to win in the end. On the other side, I can assure that nobody in the Academy hates “Green Book”. It is a film that, if you see, it is impossible for you to hate. It can not be a masterpiece, but is a film you can easily love. And remember, the vote is secret. I expect “Green Book” to have a lot of #1 votes, and plenty of #2 and #2 votes. And that is what makes you win. People respect “Roma” more than they love “Roma”, and when you vote, it is a passionate thing. Love is stronger than respect. In a very weak season, “Green Book” will be our winner, and I don’t think it is bad in the end.
*Green Book will have plenty of #2 and #3 votes.
A correction.
Don’t a lot of people haaaaaate Green Book? Even if the % of those kinds of voters in the Academy is nowhere near what it is on Twitter–still, one would think that there is some non-insignificant portion of the Academy that holds very strong negative positions on movies like this (like with “Three Billboards” last year, which undeniably worked against it winning BP). I’m thinking the younger people.
I can assure you Jerry, that IF – I said – IF – there is any kind of contingent in the Academy that hates “Green Book”, it is a very, very small portion. New Academy voting Members varies between 10-15%. And even some of them are very enthusiastic about the film. On the other hand, the Old Contingent of the Academy – which corresponds of 40%-50% of the voting branch, will put “Roma” very down, the same way they did last year with “Get Out” – and not with 3 Bilboards as you think. “Green Book” is a typical and traditional Oscar winner from the Old times. A kind of film, that, when they have the chance, they bit it and eat it hungrly – as they did with “The King’s Speech”.
I think you’re overestimating how many people will rank Roma low on their ballots. It’s too critically beloved and there’s too much respect for Cuaron for that to happen. (In my opinion.)
Academy Members don’t think like Critics. And besides, Cuaron is already winning Directing. People don’t hate Cuaron. But there are many people who deslike “Roma” and hates Netflix – THIS, I can assure you.
Listen, I hope you’re right, and Roma doesn’t win! 🙂 Even if it means I get my prediction wrong. So people who are doubting it can see the strength of the editing stat. And, yet again, that extra acting nominations aren’t as big a deal as some think. I also am not a particularly big fan of the movie. But I’m afraid Roma WILL most likely win. (Because the other movies have even bigger obstacles to overcome.) It is what it is.
I think it’s the opposite. Green Book is more divisive and will struggle with the preferential ballot.
Having said that, Green Book inspires passion and a is much more typical Oscar winner than a foreign Netflix film.
That best director miss really bothers me though (as does SAGE but Roma missed that too)
Andrew, I can totally assure you, “Green Book” is only divisive on the twitter hate bubble. Academy Members will fight hard for it. And remember, it won Producers Guild – under the preferential ballot -, and Toronto beating “Roma” and “A Star is Born” You have Octavia Spencer, Spielberg, among others, campaingning for “Green Book”.
Well, GB did win PGA, which is a preferential ballot. That gives me pose for thinking it cannot win on a preferential ballot. I think it will struggle at Oscar because they are more diverse than the PGA.
Agree with you completely. People are falling into the trap of taking film Twitter too seriously. Green Book is not divisive. Roma is not divisive. Some people can’t even get through the film.
Agree BillyBob. I will only consider a film “divisive” if we get actual reports of Academy members having diverse opinions or in the “love” or “just okay”. It doesn’t matter what trolls behind a keyboard think, it matters what the Academy thinks. So far, I have heard ZERO complaints about GB or R. Maybe there will be reports, but none I have seen.
I think the people that do not like Roma are people that don’t like the style of the movie, but they wouldn’t consider it bad filmmaking. It’s just not for them.
But the people that do not like films such as Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody don’t like it because they consider it bad filmmaking.
Which is why Roma has a big chance with the preferential ballot.
I can’t agree with those who think Green Book is bad filmmaking. It is not a masterpiece, for sure. But it is a competently made film.
The only flaw with your argument is that the Academy nominated those two films so they are not exactly averse to the filmmaking good or bad. I think Roma commands respect but not much passion from your average Academy voter (not exactly dedicated cinephiles on the whole).
Noted, but I believe (and blindly, probably) that the people who would vote Green Book as #1 on their ballot would still vote for Roma as their #2 or #3 or #4. And Roma probably has more Academy members voting it as their #1 than Green Book, and the dedicated cinephiles in AMPAS aren’t ranking Green Book that high up. I don’t think Roma will win in the first round though.
As I think it is down to those two: Roma and `Green Book.
“…the win looks so forced, like it was with “The Artist”.”
The Artist won BP, so that’s making it look good for Roma.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePGiLrcRqsQ
A good fun on predictable awards… not so much off topic, obviously
This is so unfunny. Pete will love this, though. He has been saying Streep will win for something like this or at least be nominated.
Maybe I’m wrong, but I think the DGA is basically a club. And Spike’s just not clubbable. Cuaron may not be altogether clubbable, but he’s a non-American-born “artiste”, and they like to anoint those from time to time. Spike has given vent to some anti-Hollywood-establishment tirades over the years, and I don’t think that sits well with the DGA. In their eyes he’s still not, fundamentally, an industry guy.
That’s why the soft-spoken — I’m not suggesting for a moment that he’s the least bit craven or subservient — Ang Lee won DGA for “Brokeback”. Welcome to the club. We like this guy. He can make a small budget do big things (Anne Proulx didn’t altogether love the movie adapted from her short story, but even she was stunned by the scale of the movie “Brokeback”, with its story spanning 20 years. “It’s just huge,” she marveled.) Which makes me suspect that in awarding Ang Lee the directors said to themselves, he understands the work we must do.
By contrast, Spike sometimes seems to be countering the industry, directing his movies in what he paints as sort of guerrilla mode. But DGA members pride themselves on being calm, seasoned pros, semi-renegades, somehow un-bought and un-bossed by the studios, indeed, quite to the contrary, cool manipulators of a crass studio system. For all I know, every single one of Spike’s gripes is legitimate. But a contentious tone just won’t get you into the club. That’s my guess. Note that I haven’t seen “Blackkklansman”. It may be richly deserving and I may be speaking way out of turn. I’m trying to address Spike’s overall career arc, but I could be wrong in what I’m suggesting.
Spike Lee’s problem is that he peaked early. Awards bodies often take time to warm up to certain directors like Martin Scorsese or even Steven Spielberg. But Spike Lee made his two best movies within four years of each other and pretty much everything he’s made since then has either been less ambitious (Crooklyn, Red Hook Summer, Get on the Bus) or they’ve been nutty and imperfect satires that were never going to be nominated (Bamboozled, She Hate Me, Chi-Raq) or they’ve been straight up misfires (Summer of Sam, Miracle at St. Anna, Oldboy remake). The few exceptions to this have been 25th Hour (which got a terrible release and campaign) and Inside Man (which was largely a commercial play). So all these “snubs” over the years have largely been expected.
I think overall this is a very trenchant analysis (though I like “Summer of Sam”). Thanks very much.
Well said. I think we also shouldn’t underestimate the fact that Lee has done some really shitty films. Chiraq, Summer of San, Old Boy etc. are stains on his resume made more notable by the fact that Spike is NOT a director-for-hire (everything could be considered a personal project). He was inconsistent, basically, and never into quality control as much as someone like Cuaron or Spielberg. Just my two cents.
It’s a double edged sword to be sure. Linklater is just as inconsistent in that respect
Spike Lee was able to give his Oscar speech last night, but why was he yelling into the microphone ?
Poor Bradley Cooper… Poor poor Bradley Cooper… but Bo totally earned this.
I agree Bo was a far better choice though a surprise. It helps make up for his not getting a deserved screenplay Oscar nod.
I thought he would get it but sadly that didn’t happen. However, it was nice to see “First Reformed” got in despite missing WGA. I still don’t understand how it didn’t get in there.
I liked Bo Burnham’s movie better than Bradley Cooper’s, but I liked Boots Riley’s most of all.
Burnham’s directorial work is better than Cooper’s. Actually Cooper’s was the weakest among the nominees in First Feature Film. Also would have preferred Boots Riley’s.
Roma also takes supporting actress.
Spider-Man into the spiderverse wins animated feature
Hope so re: Roma. I will be a very rich man.
Bradley Cooper should just channel his inner Sally Field and say “You hate me, you really hate me!” after tonight.
Five films will win on Oscar night
Roma- directing, cinematography
Green book- picture, supporting actor, original screenplay
Bohemian rhapsody- lead actor, film editing
The favourite- production design, costume design
Vice- makeup and hairstyling
First man wins sound mixing and sound editing
If Beale street could talk wins original score and adapted screenplay
Avengers: infinity war wins visual effects
Who wins Supporting Actress?
A can’t even understand why Tavira was nominated!!
I have a feeling de Tavira springs the upset
Marisa
Marcia
Marina
BSA shockers with a similar-sounding name 🙂
I think BR takes Sound Mixing.
Especially as a slap to ASIB.
Who’s going to win Supporting Actress?
So Cuaron is 99.99% winning the Oscar, but I still feel the need to hold out at 0.1% for a Polanski-sized upset, especially since (and I know this matters less than it has at any other time in history) Cuaron already has an Oscar for directing.
Then again, the likeliest alternative is Spike Lee, and I don’t know that I’m necessarily feeling that pick either.
So yeah, let’s just say Cuaron 100%.
BKKKM’s performance so far in this entire award season is just strange, got all the nomination it needed but zero win anywhere. For all we know, it could be Lanthimos who’s second.
Can we all agree that Spike Jonze needs to make features again?
Well-deserved win for him last night!
I miss him too.
Commercials are easier and quicker for him.
can’t say it isn’t well deserved but I was hoping for a Lee win. Roma is the front runner now.
So, what do we predict for Best Picture if WGA gives Adapted to BKKKM and Original goes to
1. The Favourite
2. Roma
3. Green Book?
I’m considering predicting Roma in all 3 cases, but could The Favourite stand a chance if it swept BAFTA and won WGA?
The Favourite isn’t eligible for WGA this year though. That’s why original screenplay is still up in the air too, I think, since the perceived frontrunner isn’t eligible for WGA.
On a side note, Green Book won screenplay over Favourite at Globes, but they rarely matched with the Oscars (for screenplay).
The Globes have given out the Best Screenplay 53 times. 37 of those times, they have matched up with the Oscar winner for Adapted/Original screenplay. That’s 70%.
Is it though? Perhaps I’m focusing too much on recent years when they didn’t match. I hope this year it’s not going to be a match.
37/53 is 69.8%. I rounded it to 70%.
The last three Oscar seasons, the Globe Best Screenplay winner failed to win the Oscar. Billboards lost to Get Out. Manchester by the Sea beat out LLL. Steve Jobs didn’t get a screenplay nomination. Before that, they were on a five winning streak.
For Original, we have Green Book winning the Globe. First Reformed winning the Critics Choice. Who knows who wins the WGA and BAFTA. If Roma wins those, smart money would be on ROMA. Forget about who wins the Globe then.
Why is The Favourite the front runner? It didn’t win the Globe OR Critics Choice.
I’m looking at it based on the critics awards where The Favourite share some wins with First Reformed (FR lead the win for Orig. Screenplay if I’m not mistaken). It’s not a smart prediction, of course, but until WGA and BAFTA I’m still sticking with The Favourite for the win. I’m always ready for Green Book or Roma or even First Reformed to snatch the Original Screenplay.
“It’s not a smart prediction, of course”
No, no, it might be just that. 🙂 I’m also planning on looking at the overall picture and how likely The Favourite would have been to win the WGA, had it been eligible. Because it’s kind of crucial to evaluating its chances for BP. (And, of course, screenplay.) It might be that the critics wins will trump the lack of TV precursor wins this year – since those split anyway, and 2/3 so far have gone to non-BP nominees. I’m very curious about that – looking forward to the research.
I’m still predicting Roma for BP regardless of who wins WGA
However, Roma wining WGA will kill most of the suspense. if Green Book wins WGA, it has the pretty powerful combination of PGA + Globes Comedy + WGA, so remains a strong threat.
I just happen to think missing out on Director Nom, having 70 Metacritic, Small amount of overall Oscar nominations, missed SAG nomination (admittedly, Roma is the same thing), and all the controversies surrounding it… Gave to many hints of weakness
The Favourite is not eligible.
I’m predicting Green Book. If Green Book wins WGA, considering the controversy regarding Nick Vallelonga, it will be a super strong threat for Best Picture.
I’m so dumb. Thanks.
If it loses the WGA, will you still be predicting Green Book?
No.
Unofficially, Roma in both cases for me, I suspect. (The Favourite being, of course, ineligible.) Officially, if Green Book wins, I believe Green Book will have to be my prediction.
Roma is loved and Cuaron is realllly loved.
Spike Lee is not.
I now think that Blackkklansman likely isn’t the “Spotlight” of the year.
I now think it’s squarely Roma vs. Green Book for Best Picture.
And it looks, to me, that we overestimated A Star is Born all year.
Yes, it got good reviews. Yes, the public went for it. Yes, it has laudable components which is why the guilds/branches went for it to get nominations. But it lacks ‘win’ passion. Cooper does not appear to be appreciated or, perhaps, well-liked. And maybe the “3-time remake” aspect of it is insurmountable, as well.
I predicted it for BP for quite a while but mostly because I thought its competition was weak. I realized it might have problems when some of my friends, who are like eternal Gaga stans, told me “I don’t get what the fuss is about”, which is like the BIGGEST red flag in the Oscar race (Boyhood and The Social Network are prime examples of that).
ASIB was not even remotely helped by the overkill at Telluride
I never overestimated that remake. I knew the industry won’t fall for it in a year with great original movies.
That love between Cuaron and Del Toro is like the love between the characters of Mahershala and Dorff in True Detective Season 3.
#friendshipgoals
How’s that “fuck you to the critics” working out now that the most critically acclaimed film of the year is winning Best Picture?
If you think it’s winning because of that you’re wrong. It’s winning because Netflix splurged $25 millions on the Oscar campaign.
It’s still the most critically acclaimed movie.
No it not black panther 97% eat that depends which critics ” reference ” u look at it but face it Roma doesn’t have rea h nor power nor cultural phenomena factor of black panther or blackkklansman which on a shot of 100/1 in it favour is bout far more significant relevant cultural issues than Roma to everyday people any day of week.
What?
Bradley Cooper in this award season
https://metrouk2.files.wordpress.com/2016/03/ezgif-com-crop-49.gif?w=620&h=478&crop=1
“Bernstein” is a potential perfect Oscar bait so he’ll come back
Never heard of this. Is he director, or actor? Or God forbid, both?
Both. And co-writer. God help us.
Just did some research. He’s playing a gay Jewish musician in a biopic produced by (GASP) both Spielberg and Scorsese. Definitely gunning for the Oscar.
I just hope he uses a different PR/marketing team from ASIB. Or better yet, find someone else to direct it.
Before this year thirty directors of foreign language films had been nominated for Best Director. Cuaron winning this year, while historic, wouldn’t be some insurgency into this category based on past history
How is it historic? AGI won 2 Oscars in consecutive years.
AGI didn’t win best director for a foreign language film. Both Birdman and The Revenant were american productions.
If Cuarón wins this year it will therefore be historic and quite frankly a huge achievement, seeing that major directors like Bergman, Fellini, Kurosawa, Kieślowski and Truffaut (to name a few) all have failed to do so.
Neither AGI win was for a foreign language film
Even though I didn’t like A Star is Born as much as other people, I do feel really bad for Bradley Cooper losing every single award he’s nominated for. (I guess WB really sucks at the Oscar game). I mean he was really good in A Star is Born, so it would have been great if he won some of the Best Actor prizes that have gone to either Bale or Malek. For me it should be either him or Malek for the Oscar. I still can’t decide. They’re both good.
Actor would be a much more fitting prize for him. He needs to work on his directing.
He would also be a much finer Best Actor winner than Malek and Bale but that ship has sailed.
He should have been a much stronger contender in Best Actor but they fucked up campaign-wise when 1. they placed him in Drama at the Golden Globes 2. focused all their energy on BD when the writing had been on the wall since the beginning that that nod may not happen at all (I called it in September and I’m not even that good at this shit).
The reason why I have zero sympathy for him atm is this simple fact : he got THREE Oscar nominations for a mediocre film. THREE. He already got much more than what was deserved here as far as I’m concerned.
The decision to place ASIB in drama at the globes has to be the biggest campaigning mistake I’ve ever seen, really stupid
With ASIB’s awards collapse, one must really wonder whether the Academy will give two fucks about giving it Song 😀
Would love to see the Mary Poppins song do a upset
I’ve wondered if, because a majority of voters will give Shallow the win, if they’ll then give Mary Poppins Returns the SCORE win in a category that seems ready for an upset (they didn’t love Beale Street, could be Panther, no First Man, etc).
If Shallow has detractors there probably wouldn’t be one choice they’d rally around. All the Stars and the Mary Poppins song would probably split the anti-Shallow vote if there is one.
I don’t think Poppins has any chance. Black Panther is bigger and a BP nominee.
Close and Cuaron have already won. Now it’s time for Roma to prevent Driving Miss Daisy Redux, completing the third and final step to save this mediocre season. I’ve lost my hope on Amy Adams. My pray for the industry: award her to clear the table for Alfre Woodward next year.
Yes. Roma winning over Green Book would be the perfect end of the season. And prove after Moonlight and Shape of Water, AMPAS has really moved in the right direction with their BP choices
😀 😀 😀 😀
It’s either that or cry.
those winners were shit so Green Book would fit right in.
So would your comment.
then that makes four shits – Moonlight, Fishfuck, Green Book and My Comment.
Alfre Woodard will probably have massive competition even if Amy Adams pulls off an increasingly unlikely win before The Woman in the Window.
In 2019 Cynthia Erivo is Harriet Tubman, Saoirse Ronan is Jo March, Renee Zellweger is Judy Garland and they are just the tip of the iceberg.
I’m rooting for Lupita to snatch all those historical figure biopic crap wigs and win for dual role in Us.
Recent winner though and Us looks like an ensemble piece. Second acting Oscars especially in lead usually only ever happen for tour-de-force star vehicles. For example if Judy is a hit with critics, that looks like the kind of star turn that may just garner a second Oscar.
I’m all for Zelly’s trumphant return but word is that Lupita stands out. May get Maslany type of grassroot support for playing multiple characters. though, OTOH, that didn’t do shit for McAvoy in Split but Split was never an awards contender which Us may be. so we’ll see.
Renee Zellweger is WHO???
Yup. She is portraying Judy garland in her next film. Shooting done and releasing this fall.
I had no idea
9 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9375932c6609085fd2f19866baffece69f5e80f210bf51bb69dcd49fd92bf9b7.jpg
That’s her? Wow, she could’ve fooled me
Zellweger is an excellent actress and has always been it’s just something people easily forget because 1. she went on a very long hiatus (6 years ?) 2. media and people in general suck (the botox “scandal”).
She is underrated. Hopefully that changes this year with this movie.
She used to be big, it’s the pictures that got small.
Kidding aside, she WAS big : 15 years ago she had three consecutive Oscar nominations (including a win in supporting) for three Box Office hits. I’m happy to see her back in action, I rather enjoyed her comeback film Bridget Jones’s Baby. No masterpiece but immensely watchable nonetheless.
Yup. The resemblance is uncanny.
On other DGA news, I’m glad Adam McKay and Ben Stiller were recognized for Succession and Dannemora, respectively. Both were spectacular.
Succession is such a great show.
They know a REAL masterpiece when they see one!
Not a surprise. Cuaron was always winning.
If someone seriously mentions BlackKK for BD or BP now I’m going to scream.
Pre-DGA I seriously considered it in a single category : BD.
Post-DGA I’m officially predicting it to win zero Oscars.
yep, Lee’s not happening in Adapted either.
I think Adapted is a chance, WGA will tell. The scripter snub hurts though
they’ll give it to Chemo cause poor he didn’t get Picture and Director noms despite posting with Namaste 24-7.
Black Panther is winning BP.
Without a script or directing nomination. Sure.
rules are made to be broken.
Thus, Roma.
thus Panther. Roma breaks no rules cause it hit all noms and missing Editing was expected cause long takes.
Panther had no acting nods either. So what’s the amazing artistic achievement that would vault it past seven other films that had nominations in acting, writing, or directing
Panther impresses as a whole rather than sum of parts. other movies may impress in individual categories but not necessarily as a whole. It also isn’t without wins. it won SAG Ensemble which isn’t equivalent to Best Picture but it’s a worthy win that emphasizes strong cast. Also, unless BAFTA goes for something that has already won Film, that category is all over the place with winners being Green Book (twice), Bohemian Rhapsody, Roma (once or twice in foreign) and Panther SAG.
Green Book only has one guild win
2. PGA and Ali.
and yet is considered a possible winner.
Missing Editing was not expected. It also got 0 SAG nominations.
But the problem with Panther is that it WAS expected to land in Adapted Screenplay, after getting both the WGA and the Scripter. And it did not. Not a good sign.
I know that Roma is winning Picture. it has the narrative (first foreign ever to win how historic, the wall, the wall, the wall, etc). I just like to fantasize that it doesn’t. I like Cuaron and would have been happy for him to have 2 director wins + finally picture win but not for this.everything about this movie rubs me the wrong away especially completely wasted nominations on Aparicio and Talavera one-off gimmicks. I know that AMPAS likes to parade slumdog kids, cute pets and now Maya-Inca-whatever Aparicio is on the stage but the nomination robbed worthier actresses who will come back unlike her and the other one. screw this movie.
“The other one” is actually a career actress.
my bad. thanks.
Not.
No, BKKKM is down
Blackkklansman is officially done. I could see it surprise at the DGA / Oscar BD and nowhere else, but it clearly wasn’t meant to be. Oh well.
No it could not surprise. Seriously. Have you heard the term flogging a dead horse?
“could” as in past tense. Not anymore.
WGA could still suffice. I wouldn’t write it off yet – or really ever, given its lack of snubs. (A la Moonlight. And Chariots of Fire, which also won nothing post-critics phase, not DGA, ineligible at WGA and Globes. But no snubs.) I never thought it had a shot at DGA. Never bought that the Spike Lee narrative was a thing for actual voters. But the movie can still win, perhaps helped by the preferential ballot. It’s still timely. (Mind you, I never did think it WOULD win, and I still don’t. I’m just saying it still might, in spite of that.)
So happy that it’s Cuaron!!!! Yes!
HPFA to everyone else on ASIB: we told you so.
Lol. Um, well … yes.
Hollywood Press Foreign Association?
But it’s more like: we told you so, that this season was going to suck from the beggining.
Maybe for you but not for me. I just wish Blackkklansman had won something.
The support for ROMA is just too much (from critics and industry) that it was very easy to predict Alfonso to win this even if some hoped for a Spike Lee upset because they hated ROMA and didn’t want it to win BP. And that shoo-in win for Bradley was also just in the heads of people who really really want to make ASIB awards-worthy happen, I’m glad it went to Bo Burnham for making one of the most original films of 2018.
Eighth Grade was a revelation. Such a good movie.
DGA’s virtual bus ran over Cooper, stopped, then backed up and rolled him again. A Star is Buried, then exhumed, then cremated. .
ASIB is doing incredibly well for a mediocre fourth remake of a dated, cliched story. It got 7 Oscar nominations including BP and script (disgrace) and Cooper scored a DGA nod for delivering a perfectly safe, good-not-great directing debut while the likes of Debra Granik and Marielle Heller couldn’t even crack the conversation let alone the top5s with films that garnered some of the best reviews and highest critical scores of the year. So yeah, Cooper is not being “snubbed” and he isn’t losing because people are “jealous”, he scored THREE (!) Oscar nominations for a mediocre film when he only deserved one and he got the much-coveted DGA nod when there were MANY exponentially more deserving who did NOT. Long story short : time to wrap up the “Poor Brad” angle. Not happening. Not when “poor Brad” has 7 Oscar nominations from the last 7 years for films that are already not aging well.
“poor brad” should win for Rocket Racoon, a performance better than what’s nominated every year, save Leo in WOWS of course.
I think he is a good actor and in ASIB he was a great one, my problem is that his films never resonate with me. I thought Silver Linings Playbook and American Hustle were textbook DOR-fare (annoying, trashy, cryingscreamingoscar scenes, shameless titsandass shots) thus criminally overrated; American Sniper flat out irritated me and ASIB is just a classic hit and (mostly) miss in my book. My two cents.
I don’t connect with DOR opus and Hustle was the most annoying POS ever but props to Cooper as an actor. he was sensational in Sniper. Very few actors would be able to carry it.
That’s just it. As an actor, he always delivers. But the films he delivers IN, I always hate. Strange I KNOW.
that’s his problem, always delivers. no surprise. they tend to vote for “omg I didn’t know he/she has it in himself/herself”. I hope he wins for a big hit as opposed to Scent of a Woman type of ‘well, we have to give it to him” disability claptrap.
From what I heard about his aggressive campaigning this season he sure comes off like someone who REALLY wants an Oscar so I’m sure he will win one soon. Hopefully it won’t be for another shitshow of a movie.
The collapse of ASIB is something special, I hardly remember a similar case of a movie underperformed so bad with all that buzz, amazing reviews and box office result. Is Gaga in danger? lol
Yeah, I’ve never seen anything like this.
It was actually pretty obvious that it would crash. A story remade for the fourth time by a first-time actor director and headlined by a popstar turned actress? OH PLEASE. We all knew these guilds only nominated it so that a lot of people would pay attention to awards season.
Of having her nominations rescinded? Such a bold move would be unprecedented, but it would restore my faith in the Academy.
And, yet, you haven’t seen the movie or her performance, as you admit above.
You are absolutely right! I am hating on this movie for no reasonable reason, because I am so frustrated Lady Gaga has not produced a good song in almost a decade. She reached absolute greatness with her first couple albums and it all went downhill from there. She could never recapture that greatness afterwards.
So now she is desperately trying to reinvent herself as a movie star and it might work, but she will always leave the uncomfortable impression her career did not exactly pan out the way it should have. Or maybe she was meant to retire in seclusion and become a nun after ‘The Fame Monster’. Such a daring move would have cemented her legend in music history.
That’s not true! Born this Way has some good songs (I love Heavy Metal Lover, Hair, You and I) and Joanne too (Perfect Illusion, Angel Down) and even Artpop has moments. Or maybe I’m too much of a stan.
Some good songs here and there yes. In fact, I like ‘The Edge of Glory’ so much I thought it was on ‘The Fame Monster’. ‘Born this Way’ was good enough I guess, but her act became very messy after that (sound unheard).
Cheers! I agree with you about her music and her career. I am no big fan of ASIB but I did not think it was horrid, and I thought she was reasonably good in the role. It was certainly better than Bohemian Rhapsody and Black Panther, without in any way being anything more Than “fine”. But I have no problem if it comes up empty on Oscar night. I don’t even necessarily think that Shallow is such a great song.
Dreamgirls.
Yes as I said before, I can’t remember a front runner ever crashing so badly.
And when people bring up social network or boyhood, I include Globes and critics choice.
Are we to guess now that aside from Best Picture and the music branch, that maybe the nominations it did receive from the Academy were lower tier additions?
Directors didn’t go for Cooper. I think the actors went to bat for Cooper, Gaga and Elliot, but maybe they weren’t top 3 slots in vote tallies, either. It was never going to contend for the win in Writing. Missed with the Editors. Probably barely got in Cinematography. Maybe just got in Sound.
As for the Guilds, where it got in everywhere, I can’y really figure that one out. But maybe it was similar scenarios where it wasn’t top 2-3 vote getters in each guild, either. There just doesn’t seem to be ‘win’ passion for it anywhere except for Song.
ACE does have two categories, so it’s easier to get in there than at the Oscars, where it missed for editing. And DGA is a lot more on the popular side than the directing branch, so Cooper was always more likely to get in there.
I wonder if the upset in the Debut category is a harbinger of another surprise in the main prize? I thought Roma was the best of the bunch, so I really hope not.
That’s a huge surprise- Cooper loses first time director.
Has this ever been a front runner like ASIB before that lost literally everything?
Boyhood.
The Social Network had been delivering a clean sweep up until the PGA/DGA/SAG trio rained on its parade.
Boyhood the same.
No they both won golden globe drama
“Clean sweep up until guilds” includes the pre-guilds event that is the Golden Globes.
I didn’t say guilds, I mean all awards
Well any contender losing all awards wouldn’t be considered to be the frontrunner by any pundit worth their salt. And if you mean frontrunner pre-precursors, those are not really frontrunners, more like wild guesses. Literally anything could happen in that stage, once the Guilds, HFPA, Bafta announce now THEN we could have an early frontrunner. ASIB was confirmed not to be one the second it underperformed on the morning of the HFPA nominations.
All season ASIB was the annointed front runner. There’s always a front runner even before the major awards start. That’s what I meant
I see. I never bought the “ASIB is the frontrunner” hype machine for a second and not because I’m clairvoyant, simply because I learned the hard way not to take any “we have the frontrunner!” kind of narratives seriously before the HFPA / Guilds / Bafta announce their nominations.
But if I wanted to play that game I would say pre-precursors last season sure looked like it could have been finally Nolan’s with his highly acclaimed smash hit “Dunkirk”. Never happened. Was kinda what Blackkklansman is this year. Got all the nods but there wasn’t enough passion for it to give it actual wins.
Yeah, anointed frontrunner by Romatose fanboys who didn’t want the heat on that movie. But I was not fooled. it has always been Roma.
I see. I never bought the “ASIB is the frontrunner” hype machine for a second and not because I’m clairvoyant, simply because I learned the hard way not to take any “we have the frontrunner!” kind of narratives seriously before the HFPA / Guilds / Bafta announce their nominations.
But if I wanted to play that game I would say pre-precursors last season sure looked like it could have been finally Nolan’s with his highly acclaimed smash hit “Dunkirk”. Never happened. Was kinda what Blackkklansman is this year. Got all the nods but there wasn’t enough passion for it to give it actual wins.
Did not get anywhere near all the nods…
He probably split votes though.
Apparently no one previously nominated for both lost First Time
OK, unpopular opinion : he didn’t even deserve the nomination let alone a potential win.
Burnham takes Best Directing Debut! I was rooting for Heineman (A Private War) but this is definitely a very solid choice even though I considered Eighth Grade more of a screenwriting achievement than directing. Cooper probably split votes between his two categories. Or his directing colleagues simply knew better than to believe the hype machine and judged the film for themselves. I know I did.
I guess ASiB really received the last nail in the coffin when DGA even refused to give Cooper the consolation prize.
Well, I guess that settles it. Alfonso Cauron is a lock for Directing at the Oscars. I would think part of this is due to the fact that Alfonso Cauron is the director, cinematorgrapher, editor, producer, and screenwriter. To my knowledge this is as close as anybody has come to literally making the movie, single-handedly. Of course there was the usual film crew in other areas (except there was no composer, as there was no score). One question that remains is Will ‘Roma’ be released on Hard Copy?
Probably Netflix does release some of their tv shows on video.
Congrats to all the winners. As far as Best Picture goes, I believe it boils down to either ROMA or GREEN BOOK. The WGA will probably be the hat-tipper.
ROMA missing an editing nomination and GREEN BOOK missing a director nomination effectively cancels each other out. Ditto for the SAGE miss. The other Best Picture contenders have an even worse problem/s than R and GB. BLACK PANTHER won the SAG ensemble, but it’s missing director, screenplay, and editing. BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY won the globe and eddie, but no director and writing nominations.
I am very much torn between R and GB. I am only leaning toward R here because it scored the most nominations and won the DGA, which is the most accurate Best Picture predictor.
True wga will be the key potentially.
Clearly not everyone no. Of people are not accepting ROMA is deserved best pic winner IF wins at Oscars honestly shame on dga going waaay overboard with Mexican directors love yet again undermining far more accomplished filmmakers in spikelee peter farelly I wager with you all if Damien chazelle Ryan coogler were in the mix for dga it would be less likely Cuaron be a win .
This is most overrated result for dga outcome in long time put in perspective time shape of water is my eyes ” above average” Oscar winner after all. I think also cuaronswork on gravity far superior terms of it game changing filmmaking way it was done to this film just dga feel he deserves more for sake of it.
Pple tell me I have sour grapes maybe or like lot pple i sick of manner in which dga some guild snub far superior selections for nom and win far too often in last decade overall like this year coogler and chazelle it like wtf talk bout mediocrity plus .
Fortunately Roma need to in order secure frontrunner status win wga that guildof very tough competition and coogler in mix yet…no nom for script in Oscars stupid inconsistencies it seriously bullahit
I’m looking forward to a new Sasha article stating that after Spike’s DGA loss, the industry will now more than ever rally behind him to be the first Black director to win the Oscar BD.
She shifted to Cuaron for DGA at the last moment, surely she realises the BD ship has sailed.
Oh I think she knew that Cuaron is winning all along. She and team are just trying to be contrarion.
It’s something I’ve never understood- she’s repeatedly willing to harm her reputation as an expert predictor to go with her preferred film or cause. I don’t get it.
The blanket DGA prediction for Lee from all on this site was really really silly.
She didn’t actually like Roma that much.
You’re plain wrong, Pete.
Facts:
Roma is Sasha’s 2nd favorite film of the year, after First Man.
Roma is my 2nd favorite film of the year, after Beale Street.
I’ll have to double-check with Jazz and Marshall before I say what I think they feel about Roma but I believe Roma is the first or second favorite film of 2018 for both of them.
In private we all felt that Cuaron was most likely to win the DGA.
But each of us — with varying degrees of confidence or pipe dreams — felt that Spike Lee was for sure the second most likely.
We all 4 would have loved for to see that happen for Spike.
We all 4 are equally happy that Cuaron won.
Some of you can try to concoct some slick or bitter or complicated motive if that’s what you think of us.
But simple fact is: we all 4 knew this was Cuaron’s award to lose (and we were all happy with that) and we knew the only other director who stood a chance to surprise last night was Spike (and we would have been happy with that too.)
For me, it’s simply more fun to place a bet on a longshot, especially when I know I’ll be happy with either one of the only two possible outcomes.
Funny how some of you guys can so quickly forget how Sasha has stood up for Roma and Netflix for months while you watched her get attacked for saying they deserved equal place at the table.
And then, just because she or anyone else has a place in our heart for another film or director, you’ve gotta float stupid-ass theories about nefarious mean-spirited motives.
I truly feel fucking sorry for anyone who loves any movie or director so much that it makes you think you have to hate or disparage other movies or directors that threaten your pet fetish.
I guess I misunderstood some comments she recently made about not feeling the need to see it twice.
And yes, she defended Netflix to her credit.
In my reply I’m not saying that you’re one of the people who drags a movie or a director that you see as a threat to your favorite.
We all know which people do that around here. It’s not many, thank god.
You’ve always been levelheaded and thoughtful in all the years you and I have known each other.
I just took you comment as a spot to bounce off of, to set the record straight about how I know we on staff feel, and to sketch out the reason we each independently dreamt of a rally for Spike, against all logic, against all odds.
I’ve asked Jazz and Marshall to remind me how they rank Roma, though I know it’s highly.
I’ll update this conversation when they get back to me.
Our buddy Henrique Cabral sums up my own feelings nicely and he doesnt rant like I can do:
“can’t say it isn’t well deserved but I was hoping for a Lee win. Roma is the front runner now.”
exactly.
Honestly if Roma had been in English it would be the runaway frontrunner. At this point the language thing is really all the detractors have left.
Big fun vibrant email conference between our Captain Sasha and 3 staff just now. Ongoing.
Sasha has me adjusting my guess that Roma is her #2 favorite of the year after First Man.
She says she is personally drawn more strongly to First Reformed and Eighth Grade, so that puts Roma as her #4
Jazz has as her top 5:
Blackkklansman
Beale Street
Star is Born
Black Panther
Roma
Marshall is giving his ranking some more thought before he’s ready to say
Far from accurate. No editing nomination, no SAG nominations whatsoever. PGA loss. Those are all, in fact, way better arguments than the foreign language thing…
Yet three of its leading 10 nominations were in categories it didn’t get guild nods in. Kind of suggests that it performed really well with the later voters. Getting the two acting nominations wasn’t nothing.
Did any other Best Picture nominee pull in nominations without corresponding guild nods?
🙂 I’m not saying its case overall isn’t strong. I’m more or less predicting it myself at the moment. (Don’t really have an official prediction yet, but Roma is my current unofficial one.) Just that there ARE definitely plenty more (and stronger) arguments against it than the foreign thing, like you were suggesting.
Yes. I think though the FLF thing is why it’s not stronger in earlier guild presence and wins. It’s related. It wasn’t such a surprise. The current Academy is likely more FLF friendly than the populist guilds. Will see.
Agree with all of that. Although it COULD also be a sign that it’s losing. That possibility definitely shouldn’t be discounted. Roma will never be a big favorite for BP, no matter what. Even if it wins the WGA too. A favorite, sure, but not more.
And, for the record:
The Favourite – directing without DGA
Vice – Rockwell without SAG
These and Roma’s two acting nods are the only ones above the line, as far as I can tell.
Roma got a sound nomination despite missing a guild
I understand. I said above the line.
Honestly I thought until last werk that Lee was a major player.
I am glad that the Academy doesn’t play identity politics.
I’m looking forward to you being less of a bitch. Any chance of that happening?
We see who upvoted this cunty comment. It makes me think less of all of you who did.
Well that’s super professional
It’s human is what it is.
Sneer at my friends and mock my friends and that’s what you can expect from me, alright?
Because I’m a human being with human feelings before I’m your fuckin robotic discussion moderator.
I really don’t think that comment was intended to be rude. It seemed like a playful joke about how the site’s been championing Lee against all odds.
Regardless, it’s wild seeing the authors in the comments of every article spewing vitriol at the readers, and even dropping the c word.
Geesh. It’s just a little silly jibe. Don’t take it so seriously. It’s not like it doesn’t base on some sort of AD’s constant narrative of the season. Not sure why you take so much offense.
🙁 Why? It was funny… I didn’t think it was mean-spirited. Although I do see your side too – how it could come off as offensive. But when you make a risky prediction like this one, I think you have to be ready to take at least some friendly ridicule once it doesn’t come off. 🙂 I’d like to think I would be – but I might be overestimating myself, of course.
:)) Exactly – gotta write about something, I guess…
Well huzzah for Bo Burnham & that Spike Jonze win is well deserved.
I have no idea how this affects the Oscar, except that Cuaron has Director in the bag, as directed (but who knows about picture) & Star is Born has lost pretty much all momentum & will be going home with Original Song.
Who’s directing Star Wars IX? JJ?
The Rocketeer is one of the best movies of all time for this kid. Would love to see what Joe Johnston does to Star Wars.
Yeah, JJ.
Jim Jarmusch would be amazing!
Those that are claiming Roma wasn’t nominated for Editing because there are long takes in the film, since i haven’t seen it, are they longer than the ones in Gravity. The same Gravity that was nominated and won Best Editing?
The editing is much different. Roma particularly at the start has very long takes. But it didn’t stop it getting nominated elsewhere. The Oscar snub is a big miss but it didn’t stop Birdman tho that had won PGA, SAGE and DGA by this point.
Roma only has the DGA. Birdman won the triple crown.
Yes but Birdman’s next competition was a lot stronger than any of Roma’s. Boyhood didn’t miss anything and won everything but the triple crown. We don’t have any film close to that this season.
Didn’t win the WGA either.
Yes poor poor WASP snubbed Bradley Cooper with all his nominations for his first film.
Ask Spike Lee. Ask Glenn Close.
It actually makes the ‘career / overdue’ argument more warranted.
It’s your first film buddy, you got your noms, be grateful.
Now what’s next ? And next ? And next?
How exactly Cooper is showing to be ungrateful?
I actually don’t feel bad for Bradley Cooper when he loses directing awards. It was his first film for fuck’s sake. And a pretty bad film.
However, him and Mortensen losing all the acting awards to Malek and Bale makes me pretty sad.
While I have issues with both ASIB and Green Book I do agree that the leading men delivered the most impressive, lived-in performances of their respective careers. How “career-best” plays out in this field, well we just have to wait and see. So far, not great.
I do feel sorry for Cooper especially with all the pre-award hype around ASIB being the frontrunner. Its bizarre to think he is going to walk away empty-handed all season. First Director DGA was his best chance.
But I feel more sorry for Ethan Hawke, who gave the best performance of the year and missed all the major nominations.
And Toni Collette of course.
My Best Actor line up would have been:
1. Hawke
2. Mortensen
3. Cooper
4. Dafoe
5. Reilly (he is one of my all time favorites)
Honorable Mention: Malek for the last 20 minutes
Viggo has been shitted on all season for the n-word episode (he shouldn’t have said it but it wasn’t meant as an insult) and for being in a controversial movie but his performance is excellent. Not as good as in Eastern Promises and The Road but still great.
He also transformed himself physically but in such unpretentious fashion that most people I talked to about his performance just assumed he let himself go for real and were stunned when I told them nope, he just gained and lost 50 pounds solely for this role.
Agree on ASIB.
But what makes me pretty sad is that the IMO best performance of the year in that category wasn´t even nominated: Ethan Hawke!
And First Reformed is a much more fascinating, thought-provoking feature than at least six of the films that actually got into Best Picture.
Also he was lucky he got to direct it. I heard Clint Eastwood was going to direct it with Beyonce staring. They settled for Lady Gaga because she was cheaper and they decided he could direct it. He was also lucky that it was a hit. Apparently a lot of younger people never saw any of the previous films one guy did not believe me when I mention that Copper’s character kills himself at the end.
Cuarón won? Extremely well directed film, a masterpiece. But more an ego-trip than an honest project, in my book. DGA wasted 2018’s edition, but he’s the only alternate to Lee that I consider acceptable for the prize… haven’t seen Green Book, though, but Farrelly’s trajectory is better at the beginning of his career, than lately.
My nominees for DGA if I had a voice:
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Armando Iannucci, The Death of Stalin
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Joe and Anthony Russo, Avengers: Infinity War
Lars von Trier, The House that Jack built
(got the feeling it’s a way better quintet than the actual nominees for DGA, Globe, BAFTA or Oscar)
Infinity War???? Are you insane?
No, I know what a miracle, that film is.
Oh, so you are insane
Bingo!
it is a miracle unironically. handling so many characters and stories and yet being perfectly coherent and easy to follow by audience that didn’t see all Marvel movie, is a miracle that should have been recognized.
If the Avengers saga has a chance (not that it does), they’d probably wait to see how Endgame turns out.
it has no chance either way. Look at Black Panther. For all the hype and Coogler’s Time Person of the Year, it missed major above the line categories which reduces it to lucky to be nominated/thanks for participation/nomination-is-your-award nominee. In short, not exactly a passionate nomination. So Endgame is gonna be met with ‘are you kidding me?” Just reality of Hollywood industry and AMPAS disdain for type of movies that give studios resources for Romas and Favorites. but nice that there are people who acknowledge that Russos did a mighty work with IW.
Infinity War was a half-hour AT LEAST, too long.
I’m hearing Roma is 2 hours too long. 🙂
Infinity War was awesome but it has the huge problem of a big ending with cheapened dramatic effect.
Because it actually cared for the characters?
Who will be deus ex machina’d back to life in the finale, thus deadening the impact of their “deaths”
eh, I don’t think that was ever the point. deaths by snap were always going to be reversed, but the suspense is in how they’ll reverse it. and the real question is which original avengers won’t make it.
Easy. Cap and Hulk, mostly because those two actors already left the series after filming Endgame.
Cap 🙁 🙁 🙁
Feige and the Russo brothers confirmed that all those deaths are PERMANENT and REAL.
Welcome to Marvel’s Multiverse, by the way. To make up a clear mind… just watch “Rick & Morty”.
Except several of the dead characters have their own sequels in pre production
Yep. Deux ex machina-a+palooza.
Yes to Infinity. Thank you. someone recognizes that Russo’s directed the shit out of that movie.
Poor ABC….they’re stuck with this albatross of an Oscars until the year TWENTY TWENTY-EIGHT.
https://www.google.com/search?q=roma+box+office&oq=roma&aqs=chrome.0.69i59j69i60j69i57j69i60j69i61j69i59.2590j0j1&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
$3 million.
Short of the Academy ordering its voters to go MTV Movie awards, what exactly do you want them to do?
They’re not gonna give it to Black Panther (made too much $$); BlacKKK is officially buried. First Man? This is 2011 all over again and the shitstorm of bad quality that year was in which IMO Moneyball was the best of a bad lot.
So who exactly do you want to win?
Black Panther or A Star Is Born, I guess
Trust me I’m still quite surprised Star is Born has faceplanted during the precursors
I just said maybe First Man would be a good choice.
100 points to Gryffindor!
Since it wasn’t nominated whose left that you prefer
if albatross ends oscar telecast and send it to streaming, it’ll be worthy. I hope ratings this year will be an absolute disaster.
So who do you want to win?
no matter who wins oscar ceremony is a bygone era entertainment that’ll never be fashionable again.
So your solution is what again?
cancel the ceremony, I mean televised part, just announce winners. that’s all people care for anyway. even red carpet is underseen cause they don’t know over half of “celebrities”. or send it to streaming for masochists and announce winners.
So is the award for artistic merit or for celebrity?
for politics. That’s what oscars have been for a long time now. neither celebrity nor merit. hence major decline in interest.
Breitbart is that way —————->
nope, you know it’s true. that’s why you have to point breitbart cause you have no arguments.
What “politics”?? If anything Oscar has studiously avoided anything even remotely strident politically since Bowling for Columbine.
The wins were not overly political most of the time. The ceremonies have been, though.
Not nearly like they were in the 70’s
sure Jan
Trust me, if there was no ceremony, in a few years people wouldn’t care anywhere near as much about the winners anymore, either… (The Globes would probably take the Oscars’ place as the most prestigious award, due to being televised and second-most prestigious right now.)
and they shouldn’t. industry should care about their winners not people who have no clue what makes a nominee let alone a winner. do hollywood people watch science awards? nah.
Why do you feel so much pain for ABC? That’s something I’ve never understood. Are you an executive?
Just being facetious. But they’re stuck with an absolute shambolic lemon of an Oscars.
And we’re stuck with your moaning.
Why? Sure it’s not a rating juggernaut like it’s used to be. But it’s still an event and ratings will always be relatively high and it’s not that expensive of a show to produce Profits will always be there.
Cuarón, thank god. At least SOMETHING in this godforsaken awards season has gone right.
Very worthy winner indeed.
It does cut into the notion that Green Book was the frontrunner after PGA.
I’m beginning to think de Tavira upsets in Supporting
another category that was decided long time ago. if this doesn’t convince people that Cuaron is winning and they should stop inventing fantasy upset scenarios, I don’t know what can.
Best Director is signed, sealed, delivered.
Possibly picture now
Cuaron!
duh
Feature: Grrr. Aargh.
Sucks to be you
Drama Series: Succession
Adam McKay leaves with at least one DGA tonight then.
I predicted it on Gold Derby simply because I thought they would want to give a prize to McKay.
oh ffs is there an end to TV awards?
That was the last one.
Rooting for Lee, but it’s looking more Cuarón, Farrelly or Cooper at this point of the night.
Also, buzzing for Three Identical Strangers! Amazing doc.
I knew there was a chance Bo Burnham might surprise. Why didn’t I predict it?
because, as we most thought, First Feature was going to be Cooper’s consolation prize. Still, it could have happened, that some voted for him in the big one, and chose Burnham for the 2nd award… and he actually did split votes.
While we’re waiting: why doesn’t the DGA have an active twitter feed? The google machine points to an account that has never been posted.
Limited Series: Escape At Dannemora.
Sharp Objects…sheez.
Drama Series, then Feature.
I can’t believe they’re neglecting Sharp Objects literally everywhere.
The doc branch’s feat just gets worse. Snubbed PGA and DGA winners. Two critically acclaimed and two of the highest-grossing documentaries ever.
Doc: Three Identical Strangers
Bo Burnham just backed up the Brinks truck and ROBBED Bradley Cooper. End of conversation.
Like fuck he did. Burhnam’s film was light years better than Cooper’s and he was also MUCH more deserving of a writing Oscar nod that never happened while Cooper got it for one of the worst nominated scripts in history. And I say all this while also thinking ASIB was his best acting performance to date. But the directing and writing ? Hard pass.
Domestic:
Eighth Grade: $13,539,709
A Star is Born: $207,174,984
People liked Cooper’s film much more than Burnham’s.
People saw Cooper’s film much more than Burnham’s.
Domestic:
A Star is Born: $207,174,984
Transformers Revenge of the Fallen: $402,111,870
People like rock em sock em robots much more than they like middlebrow musical melodrama.
It’s a useless comparison. A Star is Born had a $36 million budget, Eighth Grade only $2 million. A Star is Born had bankable stars & Eighth Grade a cast of unknowns. Cooper already established in the industry. Burnham is the one really breaking through. Cooper is 44 years old; Burnham 28. What was Cooper doing in 2003 at age 28? Credits include playing “guy at yoga class.”
Those who bring up the tired, lameass Transformers argument don’t have much of an argument to present.
So, box office receipts do mean something but only when you agree with them?
Hey I paid to see A Star Is Born, but I would have voted for Bo Burnham. Don’t make superficial assumptions.
Domestic :
Black Panther : $700,059,566
A Star is Born: $207,174,984
People liked Coogler’s film much more than Cooper’s.
Where the fuck is his DGA then ? Lordddd…
For the record : Box Office doesn’t mean shit when it comes to quality. Some great films make money, some great films don’t. Same goes for bad films.
Just watch it on Amazon wondering if there’s a plan to do a sequel called 12th grade. I’ll watch it.
I love how ‘end of conversation’ is actually subtle code for ‘beginning of conversation’.
Joanna Hogg has won an award tonight. Nothing else matters. See you another time, pals.
Aw, Bill Hader, such a talented guy, always nice to see him win.
A massive upset; the Maisel streak in guild victories is finally broken. By a not-a-comedy:
Bill Hader, Barry (Make Your Mark)
Maisel split the votes, obviously here, allowing Hader to glide to victory.