Roma did not win the Producers Guild when it was nominated — Green Book did. Ten nominees on a preferential ballot and Green Book beat A Star Is Born, Roma, Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther, and BlacKkKlansman. Roma also did not win the Eddies last night; Bohemian Rhapsody did, beating BlacKkKlansman and A Star Is Born. Roma also did not win at the Toronto Film Festival, where Green Book also won, beating out Beale Street in addition to Roma. The pundits, nevertheless, have Roma out front to win both Best Picture and Best Director. Roma has to win the DGA tonight to have a shot at either. The question is, can it?
The last and only time a foreign language film has won the DGA was Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, which made $100 million at the box office. We know that guild voters are not critics. Critics are aces with Roma, but they were also aces with other frontrunners that did not win the PGA, the DGA, the SAG, and eventually, the Oscar. That’s why tonight’s win is crucial. There are so many questions that have to be asked, but first — let’s look at how the guilds have gone down in a situation like this.
In 2015, a different film won every guild:
PGA — The Big Short
DGA — The Revenant
SAG — Spotlight
Best Picture — Spotlight
Back in 2000, we did not have the preferential ballot in place for Best Picture. Thus, the fight between Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and Gladiator was even more profound. Who knows how it would have all played out on an expanded ballot, but in this instance, Crouching Tiger won just Best Foreign Language Film. It didn’t win Best Director because Steven Soderbergh did. But how did the guilds go?
PGA — Gladiator
DGA — Crouching Tiger
SAG — Traffic
Oscar director — Traffic
Oscar Picture — Gladiator
These two years illustrate a very divided voting body. Right now, the wins so far tell us that the three most popular movies are Green Book (PGA, Globe), Bohemian Rhapsody (Globe, ACE) and Black Panther (SAG).
But, ironically, none of these films have a Best Director nomination at the Oscars. I can tell you with 100% certainty that this has never happened before. And what that tells me is that it’s possible we’ve reached complete separation between Best Picture and Best Director.
That could signal that Alfonso Cuaron takes the DGA easily, but remember — when was the last time in the era of the expanded ballot that the DGA winner came in with nothing else so far?
2009 — Kathryn Bigelow (Hurt Locker won the PGA, Oscar)
2010 — Tom Hooper (King’s Speech won PGA, Oscar)
2011 — Michel Hazanivious (The Artist won PGA, Oscar)
2012 — Ben Affleck (Argo won PGA, Osar)
2013 — Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity co-won PGA with 12 Years a Slave which won Oscar)
2014 — Alejandro G. Iñarritu (Birdman won PGA, Oscar)
2015 — Alejandro G. Iñarritu (The Revenant had won the Globe for Picture – Spotlight won Picture)
2016 — Damien Chazelle (La La Land had PGA – Moonlight won Picture)
2017 — Guillermo del Toro (Shape of Water won PGA, Oscar)
So you see, what we’re all predicting as a slam dunk win has never happened. A lot of things happening this year have never happened. We’ve never had all of the frontrunners not be driven by their director. We’ve never had so many so-called controversies hit the Best Picture contenders because we’ve never lived through an era of the hive mind digging up the backgrounds of contenders and “vetting” them in retrospect through the strident purity standards of today. We’ve never seen an Oscar voting body with so many new international members. All through their history, you had to be invited or a previous nominee to get in. But the DGA doesn’t have that many international members. You are talking 15,000 people voting — largely Americans, many of whom are also TV people.
All of this to say that I personally have switched my prediction to Alfonso Cuaron on the assumption that we’re living through an era where picture and director do not need one another any longer. However, I remain skeptical that he will win. It’s hard to imagine anyone else winning, but don’t be surprised if someone else does. It does seem at least possible that Peter Farrelly could win this tonight, though it’s a long shot to hope for Spike Lee to make history.
Finally, don’t count on the DGA to predict Best Picture, not this year. Predicting Roma for Best Picture, at least from a stats perspective at the moment, is to predict a long shot win. Just remember that. Not to say you shouldn’t, but it’s a risk without any other major consensus wins, at least right now. Perhaps tonight will change all of that.
Wasn’t there a time when Bradley Cooper had this in the bag? I don’t see the merit in giving a 2nd award to Curon especially in such a phenomenal year and a movie that had no script.
A win for remaking Crazy Heart with a female co-lead? Yeah, no.
Too bad Ryan Coogler wasn’t nominated
Face it for best picture to haveANY credibility beyond the year that it wins in the preferential ballot era it HAS win best director. Even then greatest Oscar winners across Oscars history won best picture and best director .
This should never change most of time each decade Oscar been through and will go through.
This suggests to me it open season this year at Oscars more than ever before . no guild agree on what another guild says . division in ranks at Oscars is here to stay I’m afraid …and public will be all poorer for it
Finally for so called “frontrunner ” to not get Eddie nom only weakens it chances best PIC …mind you it unprecedented way. Noms this year gone down.
Could we look at boil over and blackkklansmsn ends up winning big at Oscars ? It gone under. Radar it themes absolutely relevant today …academy loves film that challenge racist organisations or challenging them for greater good in this world .
With no Ryan coogler – disgraceful not nominated – spike Lee or farrelky or forget this,race as farasdga concerned
Splits weren’t really common before the last few years. Picture and Director usually went hand in hand. So, naturally, almost all the (greatest and not so great) Best Picture winners won both. Since the preferential ballot came, Argo, 12 Years a Slave, Spotlight and Moonlight won BP without Directing. And while Argo and Spotlight are sometimes considered not so great winners, Moonlight is generally considered (in cinephile circles anyway) to be one of the greatest Oscar winners in recent memory.
Splits were supercommon at the beginning. John Ford won 3 of his 4 oscars without winning BP and George Stevens won both of his Oscars without winning BP
Err how many Oscar did moonlight win in end? Frankly film to be memorable it either need win 3 big ones writing +director +screenplay OR at least team major ones 2-3 other ” lesser” artistic tech awards. My worry is academy lost touch with way they used do things how many Oscar winner in last 7 yrs won more than 4 Oscars inc two major awards ? Not that many quantity is quality looking like very very low return for whomever win best picture this year- again.
Only one thing is certain : Free Solo wins today. Everything else is up in the air. Even a Bradley Cooper win for first time directing …
What’s Free Solo?
It is the third best film of 2018 imho, the first being a tie between Roma and Spiderman Into the spider-verse. It is also nominated for DGA in the Outstanding Documentary Category.
But I am 99% sure you know that 🙂
I really want to watch Free Solo – but I never will.
I just can’t do heights like that – even in a film.
I can imagine. The whole theater gasped during one of the scenes. It is awesome movie, but definitely dont watch in IMAX like I did if you have fear of heights. May be a TV will work for you, the story is very compelling.
Oh that explains it, I’m not a documentary person
You are missing out my brother/sister. This documentary is brilliant.
Well its in Imax, I’m not opposed to an Imax film so I’ll watch it…thanx.
Btw, do you have a ranking of 2018 best to worst? I was meaning to ask other users theyre ranking
Here are the films I have an opinion about. It is pretty hard to rank after the top 10, but this is a flimsy attempt. I cant say which movies I will like 5 years from now… PS: I have no opinion about Vice.
Roma Or Spiderman Into the Spider-verse
Free Solo
BlackKklansman
Won’t you be my neighbor
Black Panther
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Brilliant and underrated)
RGB (the movie is ok, but I like her a lot. So i am biased)
Cold War
If Beale Street Could Talk
Minding the Gap
Can you ever forgive me
The Favorite
GreenBook
Capernaum
A quiet place
Three Identical Strangers
The Wife
Bohemian Raphsody
A star is born
Incredibles 2
Avengers Infinitywar
Shoplifters
Isle of Dogs
Solo, A starwars story
Tonight everything will change.
Or nothing will. As most people assume that Cuarón will win this in a cakewalk, that actually happening shouldn’t really change our predictions. Things only change if a surprise happens.
The DGA is THE most boring award of the whole season. They virtually always go with whoever is expected to win. (The King’s Speech is the only recent exception, unless one counts Birdman, which I don’t, after PGA and SAG wins, as well as plenty of critics prizes for directing, unlike Hooper.) I’m so over the DGA… Unfortunately they never fail to be boring, and I have zero hope that tonight will be any different.
The King’s Speech is the only recent exception?????? What about The Artist, The Hurt Locker, Gravity, La La Land, Slumdog Millionaire, The Revenant, The Shape of Water, and The Departed?
If you say none of those were expected to win the DGA, I’m not sure what channel you’re watching.
1.) What I’m getting is that…..none or some of those weren’t expected to win, however no one can deny that they deserved to be nominated and win the award fairly.
2.) A few people think that Black Panther shouldn’t be nominated for Best Picture, Director, Screenplay, Visual Effects, Cinematography, Actor/Actress, Supporting Actor/Actress but they don’t state the real reason why it shouldn’t.
2. Because it wasn’t that good?
Neither was Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close wasn’t nominated for a Directors Guild Award (DGA).
I still haven’t seen it, by the way. Good to know it wasn’t very good (I’m not missing anything). 6.9 on iMDb is borderline..
Each of those was THE #1 favorite to win the DGA. Which is exactly what I had claimed. What’s your point?
Back in 2010, lots of people thought Avatar was the #1 favorite to win but it didn’t.
Yes, I know that’s one of the most borderline cases, but stats-wise it’s no contest: The Hurt Locker had won both the PGA and the Critics Choice for directing – all Avatar had was the Globe for directing -, not to mention Avatar’s many industry snubs, which proved it was much weaker in the race than THL.
True, but still they were nominated and got a few wins, kind of similar to the first Star Wars.
Hooper wasn’t a big surprise either, that DGA win was after its surprise PGA win and just a day before its widely expected SAG Ensemble win. It was unpleasant af though. BP, whatevah I could deal, but Fincher losing BD to HIM ? Nah that was pure and utter bs. Especially after Fincher swept the critics awards and won the Golden Globe and the Bafta.
And then just the next year Hazanivicius beat Scorsese AND Malick. Whatever the fuck the Academy had been smoking in those two seasons that I don’t know but it must have been some goooood stuff.
Well, to say he was the favorite for DGA just because he won the PGA (and even also SAG) I think is a bit much, with Fincher having won everywhere else. It’s like saying Farrelly was the favorite this year. Of course not the case. Because PGA winners DO lose the DGA often enough – and, when they’re not proven directing winners, they lose it almost every time…
I still think this may just go to Spike Lee. I do think Cuaron’s directing achievement was better this time but Spike Lee is an Oscar-less legend whose peers may just want to reward him at last. What may work against Cuaron is the simple fact that he has already won both the DGA and the Oscar and not even that long ago, either.
I know this doesn’t sound like a fair argument but this is awards season, decisions based on “fair arguments” are rarely ever made. Plus who wouldn’t want to see Spike Lee recognised FINALLY ?
You’d be surprised, Phantom.
I would be only surprised if someone other than Lee or Cuaron won.
I think it’s all very bizarre, honestly. Blackkklansman hasn’t won anything either. In fact, it was beaten by Bohemian Rhapsody last night. To me, it’s all up in the air but I do think Cuaron will win even if people haven’t watched the movie.
By far the weirdest Oscar season since I started following. Stats are practically useless this year, whichever film wins BP will have to break SEVERAL.
– Roma would be the 1. first foreign language film 2. first without reported BO numbers 3. third without the SAG ensemble nod 4. third without an Editing nod since 1980 5. third to win BP without a corresponding PGA win in the last 10 years.
– Green Book would be the 1. the fourth without a BD nod 2. third without a SAG Ensemble nod
Right now I’m down to these two. If/when Blackklansman wins DGA and/or WGA and The Favourite sweeps Bafta, then and only then will I go back to the drawing board.
“Green Book” would be the FIFTH winner without BD nod (after “The Wings”, “Grand Hotel”, “Driving Miss Daisy” and “Argo”).
Noted. I forgot about The Wings.
I’m not seeing the intense love for Klansman. Respect but little passion. But hey, it’s been a weird year. Very few people I have talked to think it is the best film of 2018. Green Book or Black Panther or Roma will win BP. I think Roma still has the edge.
I don’t see Blackkklansman winning any category at the Oscars but Best Director. If it wins any, it will win one there if I had to guess.
“Stats are practically useless this year”
They’re not useless because they at least tell us Bohemian Rhapsody and Black Panther won’t win. (Now, if they end up being wrong about that, then they’ll have been useless – this year.) They’ll also probably provide us with a favorite, eventually, or two or three, instead of the six we have now, once the DGA and WGA speak.
Key word : practically.
Having said that, I’m not sure DGA or WGA will clarify things for us this weekend. DGA could strengthen a relatively under the radar BP contender (Blackkklansman); WGA adapted could very easily go to a film that isn’t even a BP nominee (Beale Street) and the WGA original winner’s victory will be clearly taken with a grain of salt its biggest competition (The Favourite) being ineligible there and all.
Key word : practically.
Having said that, I’m not sure DGA or WGA will clarify things for us this weekend. DGA could strengthen a relatively under the radar BP contender (Blackkklansman); WGA adapted could very easily go to a film that isn’t even a BP nominee (Beale Street) and the WGA original winner’s victory will be clearly taken with a grain of salt its biggest competition (The Favourite) being ineligible there and all.
Indeed, the WGA is weird again this year. How is it that it’s almost always the front runners for screenplay that are somehow ineligible there?!… (Birdman, The King’s Speech, Inglorious Basterds, Three Billboards, now The Favourite, and others I’m forgetting, I’m sure.)
At this point, I don’t think people feel they should give Spike any awards. There would be a narrative running for it, but there’s not.
Farrelly is a tougher competitor than Lee, at this very moment.
Agree 100%. (Except the Oscar nomination is almost always a necessary thing to win the DGA, and Spike has that, while Farrelly doesn’t. Neither does Cooper. McKay does, though…)
“…but I do think Cuaron will win even if people haven’t watched the movie.”
I don´t get the assumption that people are blind-voting for Cuaron… why should less voters have seen “Roma” than – for example – BlackKklansman? I´d argue that a new highly acclaimed film by the respected and already Oscar honored director Alfonso Cuaron attracts enough voters to see it (in theatre or at Netflix) and vote for it!
I wonder how many people who voted for Glenn Close have actually seen The Wife. Probably 10%.
Here’s how I break it down:
1. Alfonso Cuaron
PROS – He’s won all of the major best director trophies up to this point, and scored both the Oscar and BAFTA nomination.
CONS – With 22 or so days left until Oscar Sunday, Roma has yet to win a single Guild award.
2a. Spike Lee
PROS – Nominated for Oscar and the BAFTA. BKKM is the only film up for Best Picture nominated for directing, writing, editing, and scored Guild nominations from the PGA, DGA, SAGE, WGA, and ACE awards.
CONS – BKKM has been completely blank during this award season. It didn’t win any Globes, Critics Choice, and was completely shut out at the PGA, SAG, and ACE awards.
2b. Peter Farrelly
PROS – His film won the PGA. 22/29 times the PGA and DGA winner have matched up.
CONS – No Oscar or BAFTA Best Director nomination.
4. Bradley Cooper
PROS – Nominated for the BAFTA. His film is missing editing and directing at the Oscars, but his film scored PGA, DGA, SAG (4 nominations), WGA, and ACE nominations.
CONS – No Oscar nomination. Much like Spike Lee, his film has drawn almost complete banks in the major categories. All what we have is wins for Best Song and a tie at the Critics Choice awards for Best Actress.
5. Adam McKay
PROS – He’s nominated for the Oscar. His film is up for directing, editing, and writing at the Oscars.
CONS – No BAFTA nomination. Other than Bale, its been quiet for Team Vice.
Apollo 13 and The Color Purple (which I think are, besides Argo – Affleck was nominated at BAFTA, and won, if I’m not mistaken -, the last two films to win the DGA without Oscar nominations for directing) also didn’t have BAFTA directing nominations. So it remains doable even if one includes that, albeit very, very rare.
Just rewatched ARGO and it made me realize how Canadians are so underrated.
Cuaron has this won in the bag
Sasha, did you change because BlackKK lost the ACE?
I think I’m burnt out of all the awards in between Globes and Oscar. Let’s just not have any awards ceremonies for the rest of the month until Oscars, wed just have more time to watch and catch up and discuss films, wouldnt that be better?
It’s funny every year I think wouldn’t it be nice to not follow so closely so to have surprises along the way. But I can’t help myself
I can get behind that. Even I’m a little overwhelmed… Too much happening too fast…
“Predicting Roma for Best Picture, at least from a stats perspective at the moment, is to predict a long shot win.”
Yes, but everything else is more of a long shot. Black Panther won SAG, but no director nomination. Green Book won PGA (very meaningful!), but no director nomination (plus, growing antipathy towards it). It’s a possibility, but a long shot as well. Bohemian Rhapsody won EDDIE, but no director nomination. Roma, BlacKkKlansman, Vice, and The Favourite all have lots of nominations but no major guild wins. Whichever of those (or Green Book) wins DGA would seem to be the frontrunner for Picture. I think Roma is most likely to win DGA, so it will have tons of nominations, including in the most important categories like directing, writing, and TWO for acting (notably especially given that they’re unknowns!) + DGA. No editing nomination and no PGA or SAG win, so not a slam dunk prediction, but better than all the alternatives.
Now, if Green Book wins DGA, then unfortunately, I think it’s the BP winner (and Cuaron or Lee wins Director at the Oscars).
If Spike Lee wins DGA, then it’s BlacKkKlansman’s night at the Oscars–or at least a split with Lee / Green Book (imagine that!).
In order of most to least probable as of now:
1. Roma wins Picture and Director
2. Green Book wins Picture / Cuaron or Lee wins Director
3. BlacKkKlansman wins Picture and Director
Black Panther did get a directorial nomination from the African-American Film Critics Association, Saturn Awards, and Washington D.C. Area Film Critics Association, but you know that there was some tough competition.
What time is the announcement?
I’ve heard it starts at 7:30 LA time.
thanks!
But it’s a ceremony (although not televised), so it will take a while.
“2015-Alejandro Inaritu — (The Revenant had won the Globe for Picture – Spotlight won Picture)”
This is not really far from being a precedent to this year. Cuarón did win Directing at the Globe, and was not eligible for Picture. It did win Foreign Language Film.
Also, could the WGA pick Black Panther for Adapted Screenplay? The category lacks a good frontrunner right now, and this could push that film into actual Best Picture consideration.
Black Panther doesn’t have a Screenplay nod though.
That’s correct, but it does have both the WGA and the Scripter, plus it is a Best Picture nominee. If it wins in the end (which I think is very very unlikely) this could be a route.
I would be pleased if Black Panther won Best Picture, but no film has won Best Picture while missing directing, acting, writing, AND editing nominations altogether since Grand Hotel in 1933.
Then again, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them won for Best Costume Design out of nowhere. Perhaps the new Academy members will shake things up, but I high doubt it.
Yes. That’s what I’ve been getting at with “very very unlikely”. But Adapted Screenplay is messy enough that I wouldn’t be completely baffled by a Black Panther win at the WGA.
“no film has won Best Picture while missing directing, acting, writing, AND editing nominations altogether since Grand Hotel in 1933.”
Actually, even THAT isn’t a precedent, because there was no editing category back then, so it didn’t miss for editing. (And I strongly suspect it would NOT have missed, had the category existed. Given the kind of movie it is.)
Welllll….it did get a Screenplay nod from the Alliance of Women Film Journalists, Foundation for the Advancement of African-Americans in Film, Broadcast Film Critics Association, Georgia Film Critics Association, San Francisco Film Critics Circle, Academy of Science Fiction, Fantasy and Horror Films, University of Southern California, Washington D.C. Area Film Critics Association, and the Writers Guild of America.
“Also, could the WGA pick Black Panther for Adapted Screenplay? The category lacks a good frontrunner right now, and this could push that film into actual Best Picture consideration.”
THEN I would start considering a collapse of the stats semi-seriously… But ONLY then. Before then, it’s just another random SAG winner.
“Roma” has won Golden Globe for directing (and for foreign language movie – it could not have been nominated for best drama as they have the rule forbidding this for foreign language movies) so I guess that you might say that this is this year’s “The Revenant” and you have a precedent for this year’s Cuaron win. 🙂
Just what I was thinking. There IS precedent, even in the preferential era.
Almost at the end rally, folks!!!! One month to Oscar