There are two events upcoming where BlacKkKlansman could stage an 11th hour coup. They are the Writers Guild Awards, which are in two weeks, and this coming BAFTA Awards show on Sunday. The Spike Lee joint is up for Best Director, adapted screenplay, acting, and Best Film. The other heavyweights are The Favourite, with Best Film, director, screenplay, and acting; A Star Is Born, with film, director, writing, and acting; Roma, with film, director, and Ssreenplay (no acting); and Green Book, with film, screenplay, and acting (no director).
Thing is, the BAFTA are, at least lately, not all that much of a match with Oscar when it comes to Best Picture. Part of the reason for that is how they vote. They have five nominees for Best Picture, so a plurality rules. That isn’t how the Academy decides Best Picture. They use the preferential ballot and a majority vote, which can often wreak havoc on predicting how they will go.
Last year, there was a definite split between Three Billboards and The Shape of Water. The SAG and BAFTA went for Three Billboards, while the PGA and DGA went with The Shape of Water. Enough controversy on Three Billboards knocked it out of contention, so not even the actors branch could save it on a preferential ballot. There were enough people put off by it to put it lower on the ballot.
That can often be exactly how controversies can hurt a movie on preferential ballot. Here is an example. I run polls on Facebook and ask people to rank movies. You can see very easily who is caught up in the internet bubble and who isn’t. A movie like Green Book would only be ranked very low if people HATED it and the only way they would ever hate a movie like Green Book (as opposed to indifference, for instance) is if they felt supporting it was some sort of political gesture, which many of them do. Those who want to defend Green Book or feel it has been unfairly attacked might push it to the top or near the top of their ballots even if they didn’t put it at number one.
Figuring out plurality votes are easier, in some ways, than predicting the preferential ballot wherein psychology often comes into play. A plurality vote will often be the result of an entire membership really loving a movie, so you would expect to see it show up in various branches. But a preferential ballot has no such requirement, which is how Spotlight ended up winning Best Picture and only one other Oscar for screenplay.
The Best Actor and Best Actress races appear to also be wide open. Is Glenn Close going to beat Olivia Colman? Will Christian Bale beat Rami Malek? Who will win in supporting actress? Regina King isn’t nominated — will Amy Adams win? Will one of the girls from The Favourite win? So many questions…
At any rate, take your best shot at how the BAFTAs might go:
BEST FILM: The Favourite (Brits will realize that a Netflix win here or at the Dolby Theater will be detrimental to the movie business worldwide)
OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM: The Favourite
OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER: ?
FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE: Roma
DOCUMENTARY: RBG
DIRECTOR: Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: The Favourite
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: First Man
LEADING ACTRESS: Olivia Colman, The Favourite
LEADING ACTOR: Christian Bale, Vice
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Amy Adams, Vice
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
ANIMATED FILM: Incredibles 2
ORIGINAL MUSIC: A Star Is Born
CINEMATOGRAPHY: First Man
EDITING: Bohemian Rhapsody
PRODUCTION DESIGN: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
COSTUME DESIGN: The Favourite
MAKEUP & HAIR: Vice
SOUND: A Star Is Born
VISUAL EFFECTS: Black Panther
BRITISH ANIMATION SHORT: MARFA
BRITISH SHORT FILM: Bachelor, 38
RISING STAR: Lakeith Stanfield
Them’s some bold predictions…
Anyone know how we can watch the BAFTAs live? From what I can tell BBC America is showing it delayed, and here uktv is only showing it delayed. Anyone have a way to see it live?
I dont think there is any live realtime broadcast. In UK GMT, it’s edited on the fly and broadcast about 2 hrs after it takes place.
But we will be updating the site with all the winners as they happen. If you dont mind finding out who wins before the UK telecast.
We will begin listing the winners here around 7pm GMT / 11am Pacific
Thanks Ryan! I guess I will have to decide whether to avoid here until I see it so that I get it “spoiler free” or to follow along here and watch it knowing who wins!
I always decide to wait to watch the show. I always can’t resist and end up looking here.
Some links:
https://www.firstonetv.live/Live/United-Kingdom/BBC-One–4
https://www.stream2watch.tv/live/bbc-1-stream
http://www.freeintertv.com/view/id-2209
The last one refreshes every two minutes, so you might miss some seconds here and there (not always, sometimes it misses nothing even if it refreshes), but it’s stable (from what I remember), in case nothing else works.
I just saw The Wife.Glenn Close was nothing short of amazing!I think she will win the Bafta and then the Oscar.She was incredible!!!!!
Preach! I actually think that movie is totally underrated and get performance is so much better than just a career award, it’s legitimately the best performance I saw last year!
Yes it’s not fair it’s seen as a career award, it’s a legitimately great performance,
Though I preferred Colman’s and Toni Collette’s.
Best Film – The Favourite
Best Director – Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Best Actor – Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Actress – Glenn Close, The Wife
Best Supporting Actor – Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Best Supporting Actress – Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Best Original Screenplay – The Favourite
Best Adapted Screenplay – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Best Cinematography – Roma
Best Costume Design – The Favourite
Best Film Editing – First Man
Best Makeup and Hair – Vice
Best Production Design – The Favourite
Best Original Score – If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Sound – Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Visual Effects – Black Panther
Best Animated Feature – Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Best Documentary Feature – Three Identical Strangers
Best Foreign Film – Roma
Best British Film – The Favourite
Rising Star – Letitia Wright
Why Three Identical Strangers and not Free Solo in Best Documentary?
I’m just not seeing Free Solo win here. I almost buy the They Shall Not Grow Old theory more. But of course I could easily be wrong. This is not a category I’m very confident about. 3IS has at least proven it can win a big industry award – DGA. Free Solo only has ACE, which somehow seems less relevant. I know these all have horrible correlation, but so does everything else. And picking the DGA winner at least makes some sense, logically speaking.
I loved 3IStrangers! Was so happy it got the DGA for doco.
It should be rewarded here.
No nom at Oscars was such a shock yet Doco is SUCH a strong category.
Best Film – Roma
Best Director – Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Best Actor – Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Actress – Glenn Close, The Wife
Best Supporting Actor – Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Best Supporting Actress – Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Best Original Screenplay – The Favourite
Best Adapted Screenplay – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Best Cinematography – Cold War
Best Costume Design – The Favourite
Best Film Editing – Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Makeup and Hair – Vice
Best Production Design – The Favourite
Best Original Score – If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Sound – Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Visual Effects – Infinity War
Best Animated Feature – Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Best Documentary Feature – Three Identical Strangers
Best Foreign Film – Cold War
Best British Film – The Favourite
Rising Star – Barry Keoghan
I’d like it a lot to see you getting some of those right 🙂 – like the Cold War ones, Infinity War, Three Identical Strangers… (Which I also liked a lot. And I agree it’s been a great year for documentaries.)
I’m going on how I want it to go with the Roma/Favourite Split for film and Cold War for foreign film. There’s a few ways it could go… What a year, right!
Well, I prefer Cold War to Roma, and I haven’t had a chance to see The Favourite yet (dying to), but I’m rooting for it anyway. So I’d like to see a The Favourite – Roma picture-director split, if possible. 🙂 (Or, better still, a The Favourite sweep, but I shouldn’t be greedy…)
The Favourite is a delight. I look forward to hearing what you think.
I lthink both Roma and Cold War are masterpieces in their own way. Why? They both inform based on the personal experience of their creators. Simple. People really connect to that. well, I know I do.
If they don’t make it available for me to see soon, you might not get to hear what I think. 🙂 Since I might only be able to watch it post-Oscars. (When I’ll no longer be at AD – the usual break. I could come back specifically to write about it, of course… but I usually don’t, just because I’ve seen a movie I’d missed during Oscar season.) Let’s hope that’s not the case!…
“I lthink both Roma and Cold War are masterpieces in their own way. Why? They both inform based on the personal experience of their creators. Simple. People really connect to that. well, I know I do.”
True. I actually didn’t fully connect with either (I did more with Cold War than with Roma), but that had nothing to do with it, I’m sure. It was mostly editing/character issues, respectively, that were the reasons I didn’t quite fall in love with either of them.
I don’t know which way doco will go at Oscars. Minding the Gap was so raw. RBG was just brilliant filmaking about a brilliant woman. And I haven’t seen the other 3 as yet….
Minding the Gap is the only nominee I’ve seen. It was REALLY good… Yet somehow still isn’t in my top 3 documentaries seen this season. 🙂 Great year for docs!
I agree. It was such a refreshing ‘inside the box’ style doco Not sure of it’s in my top 3 as yet. Maybe just on 3rd at this stage from what I’ve seen…
Greek-British power will propel the BAFTAs on The Favourite side, in a big way sweep, and I predict a Best Director win for Lanthimos
If The Favourite doesn’t sweep… it becomes the least likely winner at Oscar.
British Film award might be the key. If Bohemian Rhapsody wins it, then The Favourite takes the big one. I don’t think The Favourite is taking both, so if it wins the big one, they’ll give some bone to BR aside from Malek. I might be wrong, though, but it somehow makes so much sense… Bohemian Rhapsody is the most successful british film since Harry Potter… so… they may need to give it something huge beyond Malek.
Following on from discussion below, how about years when GG chose better BP than AMPAS, granted that the 2 categories at GG make it a bit trickier.
1996 Sense and Sensibility (Forest Gump)
2003 The Hours (Chicago, which won GG comedy)
2007 Babel (Departed)
2008 Atonement (No Country)
2011 Social Network (Kings Speech)
2015 Revenant (Spotlight)
Yaaaaaas to this except for TSN and Revenant! The Hours is life-changing for me. I have yet to see it again after a long time but for me it was a great film from the first time I saw it. Same with Atonement. It confirms Wright as a major auteur after the promising and fresh work on Pride & Prejudice. Plus all the performances were firing on all cylinders. Ronan never been better and she was continuously great in her performances as of the late.
I think The Hours is actually perfection, I cannot fault any of it.
It is perfection. One of my all-time faves.
The acting, the directing, the writing, the music. All A+
Love everything you wrote here.
2014 – Boyhood AND The Grand Budapest Hotel (Birdman)
Forrest Gump is 1994, not 1996. 1996 is The English Patient.
Those are the year they were released. Gump was released in 94 and the Oscar in 95. TEP was released in 96 and won the Oscar in 97.
As if! “Clueless” beats Gump hands down.
I can’t see voters voting for Cold War in foreign so they can vote Roma in BP. If they like Roma that much, why risk it winning neither? I think winning both is achievable. Happened with critics choice. Same with the Favourite and British Film.
The AACTA Internationals on 4th January (before the Globes) were probably the best indication of where the BAFTAs will go, naturally with a sprinkling of respective Aussie/Brit bias instead of the US bias (no Black Panther/Regina King nominations).
AACTAs on 4th January:
Roma
Cauron
Malek
Colman
Ali
Kidman (aus bias)
If Malek and Colman won the AACTAs, they’ll almost certainly win the BAFTAs. Ali is this season’s lock, although Grant might have a hope there. Roma/Cauron winning at the AACTAs that early in the season will probably happen again.
Nicole Kidman won supporting for Boy Erased. Amy Adams, Claire Foy and Margot Robbie are the common nominees, I expect Adams or the Favourite girls to get up.
You’re looking at about 160 voters compared to thousands though. Not really a fair comparison.
AACTAs may choose similar but way too low numbers to be predictive in any way
It’s not Cauron, but Sauron, I mean Cuarón.
My thoughts exactly… 🙂 I’ve seen more than one person call him that. (As, I’m sure, have you.)
Last year Nolan won AACTA but didn’t win Bafta. It’s not always as simple as copy and pasting the winner over. (The clue there was Dunkirk overperformed with AACTA getting Hardy for Supporting Actor and Screenplay and was weaker at Bafta.)
This year Bohemian Rhapsody over performed at AACTA getting Picture and Screenplay. So while I’d agree Colman is v.certain, Malek while the favourite isn’t unbeatable.
The only reason Black Panther got snubbed out of the major categories was because BAFTA thought that the movie was just a Marvel film. Although, I find it a tiny bit odd that Black Panther had arguably more critical praise than any other Marvel film.
Celebrating films with strong African-American representation can be an overinflated bubble thing in the US (for understandable reasons) that doesn’t always translate internationally. The qualify is sifted from the mediocre outside the US. Especially in countries where seeing an African-American in the flesh is like seeing a unicorn.
Oh that’s low
What do you think were the years where BAFTA chose a better BP than AMPAS? Some of mine
1990- Goodfellas (Driving Miss Daisy)
1992- Howard’s End (Unforgiven)
1994- Four Weddings (Forrest Gump)
1995- Sense and Sensibility
2002- The Pianist (Chicago)
2007- Atonement (No Country)
2015- The Revenant (Spotlight)
and the other years?
I would imagine those were the years when AMPAS chose at least as good a BP winner as BAFTA, according to Andrew.
1990- Goodfellas (Driving Miss Daisy)
1995 – Sense and Sensibility
1994 – Four Weddings (Forrest Gump)
2001 – Fellowship of the Ring (Beautiful Mind)
2002 – The Pianist (Chicago)
2005 – Brokeback Mountain (Crash)
2007 – Atonement (No Country)
2014 – Boyhood (Birdman)
2016 – La La Land (Moonlight)
Prior to recent times, often the awards year did not match, e.g., Manhattan (1979) won in 1979 over The Deer Hunter (Oscar 1978); Kramer (Oscar 1979) lost in 1980.
Below are some BAFTA winners that beat Oscar Best Pictures that weren’t even nominated at BAFTA, as follows:
1949 – The Bicycle Thief (All the King’s Men)
1952 – Breaking the Sound Barrier (The Greatest Show on Earth)
1955 – Richard III (Marty)
1956 – Gervaise (Around the World in 80 Days)
1972 – Cabaret (The Godfather – this one is shocking, especially since I think the BAFTAs generally do better than the Oscars; but I’m one of those who prefers Cabaret to The Godfather anyway)
1973 – Day for Night (The Sting)
198 – A Room with a View (Platoon)
I had no idea The BAFTA’s have been out so long.
Yeah, since 198 AD. It’s too long in the tooth.
Since the BAFTA changes:
2001 – LOTR
2002 – The Pianist
2005 – Brokeback Mountain
I’ve only included the recent ones where the difference is stark enough to care.
2017 – 3 Billboards (Shape of Water) – serious, thin-skinned Americans
2005 – Brokeback (Crash) – frontrunner before the upset
1997 – Full Monty (Titanic) – understandable bias, the UK release of Titanic was late January, and the craziness of Luhrmann winning Director
1991 – The Commitments (The Silence of the Lambs) – understandable
Fun challenge, Andrew!
(Except for a couple of years where we disagree) You have covered most all the hiccups.
How about 1952 though? Were voters in London and LA all blasting Mary Jane?
Oscar voters had nominated High Noon but awarded The Greatest Show on Earth.
Bafta voters had nominated Rashomon, A Streetcar Named Desire, and The African Queen — and they picked The Sound Barrier
Thanks Ryan. Don’t know about those older choices, well before my time, and I haven’t explored the older films, tho I probably should
1964 – Oscars chose My Fair Lady, and Bafta chose Dr Strangelove (although then in 1965 Bafta chose My Fair Lady
BAFTA has lost the golden chance to reward Dr. Strangelove’s true heir, this year. Or actually, last year, as “The Death of Stalin” competed for 2017’s BAFTAS. It only got 2 noms (British Film of the Year and Adapted Screenplay). What a shame… same crime that they committed to another masterpiece, “Trainspotting”.
1990 Oscar winner vs Goodfellas was Dances with Wolves, not DMD.
I prefer Chicago (in fact I love it) over the Oscar bait of The Pianist. It was actually a strong year in film if I remember.
The Hours
Frida
Gangs of New York
Talk to Her
Road to Perdition
Adaptation
The Pianist
Spirited Away
Y Tu Mama Tambien
Catch Me If You Can
Nowhere in Africa
My Big Fat Greek Wedding
Hero
Far From Heaven
Minority Report
did you forget Bowling for Columbine? That was 2002’s Film of the year.
Yes. True that!
But The Hours is 2002’s best film for me with Chicago, Frida, Spirited Away, Talk to Her and Gangs of New York as top 5.
I strongly disliked The Hours. Thought it was too over the top, and Julianne Moore’s performance, I thought it was subpar… it really bothered me, specially because Toni Colette’s masterful performance was making it more clear, how weak Moore was (and I love Moore)
My top 5 of 2002
1. Bowling for Columbine
2. Chicago
3. Talk to Her
4. The Pianist
5. Y tu mamá también
* Zhang Yimou’s “Hero” I always add it following its American Release in 2004. Otherwise it would be my #1, as it is my #1 film of the XXIst Century (so far). Only The King’s Speech and Mad Max: Fury Road and Moonlight come quite close to that rank.
We just have different tastes I guess. I loved it even more after I read the book. For me everything came together, writing, direction, visual designs, music, performances. I was actually hesitant to watch it again after I first saw it as a kid on DVD worried it might have worn out on sevond viewing but then when I did back in film school, all these great things came back and discovered more. Well atleast we’re on the same page on Chicago, Talk to Her and TKS.
Agree! Streep, Kidman, Moore, Collette, Daniels, Dillane, Janney, Reilly, Richardson, Martindale and Atkins is the best cast ever assembled.
Oh, I have to agree with the exception of “Spirited Away”, of course,
Wait, is that the year of “The Fellowship of the Ring”? I would put Columbine third.
I happen to agree, that Four Weddings and a Funeral might be even better than Forrest Gump (an amazing film anyways, that is a worthy best picture winner, even if not probably on my top 5 of that year: Pulp Fiction, Clerks, The Adventures of Priscilla Queen of the Desert, The Lion King and Four Weddings, probably as 5th spot.
Adding Ed Wood on that list.
yeah, I probably was picking that one for number 5.
Four Weddings is much better. However, You are forgetting “Clueless” which would them all. Hello?!
Wait, is that a different year?
Not really sure where else to start this discussion, but what do you think each actor’s nomination clip will be?
The only one I feel super confident about is Colman’s — once again — being the “LOOK AT ME! HOW DARE YOU!” clip, which will never actually get old for me, no matter how often it plays this awards season.
Clip? I don’t think there will be any…
I feared as much, although one of my favorite Oscar ceremonies of the last 20 years (when Chicago won), there were no acting clips. But I think that was the last time they eschewed playing clips, IIRC.
Either way, I hope they have them, but given that they’re taking the ax to everything, it wouldn’t surprise me if they cut them to add another pointless montage on The Magic of the Movies, as if people who watch The Oscars don’t already enjoy and appreciate the medium.
In 2009, they had 5 previous winners of each acting category present the nominees. They did not do a clip from a movie.
And this kinda bummed me out, because this was the year of Heath Ledger for the Dark Knight and I was very curious what clip they would use.
those took forever i remember…..i’m glad they didn’t do it again
What SAG/BAFTA clip of him did they use?
“I’m a man of my word”
This. With everything they’re doing to streamline the ceremony, people still think they’ll show clips from the performances? Are you kidding? Those were probably jettisoned as quickly as the technical categories.
I’ll riot.
Close will be “Your wife doesn’t write?!”
Weisz might be the “You are not the queen” scene.
De Tavira might be either the husband leaving or the vacation dinner.
de Tavira’s scene is guaranteed to be the “we’re always alone” scene, although I think the vacation dinner scene sealed the nomination.
Bale: I hope it’s the final monologue but it’s probably that lame scene with W asking him to run.
Malek: One scene with the studio head. I really don’t care about his.
Viggo: The scene at the bar with Shirley and the racist rednecks.
Coops: His last scene with Elliott.
Dafoe: I’d say the dramatic scene with Gauguin but I’m not sure.
Close: “I can’t do it anymore, Joe.”
Colman: “Stop it, I don’t want to hear you”
Melissa: The monologue in court
Aparicio: The confession during the beach scene
Gaga: “I don’t sing my own songs”
Ali: “We use our dignity”
Grant: “Make me 29 with no wrinkles”
Driver: The polygraph scene
Elliott: Him looking back at Cooper all teary-eyed
Rockwell: The scene where he asks Cheney to run
King: The Puerto Rico scene
Adams: “Get your act together”
Weisz: “You are not the queen”
Stone: “I care about me” or whatever she says 😀
De Tavira: Telling the children that dad left
That or the scene where she explains to Stone what those rabbits actually represent. Or even her wailing cries in the hallway.
The way the broadcast rumors are heading, they won’t even read the nominees’ names. They’ll be run in a chyron at the bottom of the screen. Winners will get 30 seconds to give speeches, then be dropped through a trap door.
Melissa McCarthy (‘Get out of my house!’) and Richard E. Grant (‘make me 29 with no wrinkles’) seem pretty obvious. And the Amy Adams pep talk/Adam Driver talking in the locker room scenes. But I agree – everyone else bar Colman is really tricky.
I think Ali is the jail scene where he talks about maintaining dignity, and Bale’s could be the ending monologue to the camera, although that’s pretty spoilery for a typical awards show clip. No idea what they use for Rockwell. Sam Elliott could be the monologue about how music is simply how a person interprets a certain number of notes. Gaga could be “I won’t do this again. I won’t come and find you. Next time you can clean up your own mess.” or the scene outside the grocery store where she sings a bit from Shallow. And Emma Stone could be “playing a monster for the children” and Regina King could be “That’s your grandchild! Who cares how it got here?”
I expect at least some of these will be right, potentially. But I honestly have no idea. For instance, I have no loving idea what you put for Bradley or Viggo, or which clip Rami gets. But it should be interesting to find out.
Weisz has me stumped. Too many to choose from.
I’d love it if they picked the dancing scene. Pretty please.
I would scream with delight.
On a second viewing Weisz’s performance is even more remarkable. She deserves to will.
The scene where Weisz asks her why she hired Stone back after Weisz fired her and Colman replies “I like her tongue inside me”
For Regina King, it’s quite obvious: the scene with the in-laws at her house. Come to think of it, the rest of her scenes in the movie are quite low-key, which makes me wonder if she really deserves the win after excellent work by Weisz and even Stone
I have no idea why she swept the critics awards, especially when you have an amazing Weisz right there. I can see why Adams haven’t won nothing since her movie is divisive with the critics and she became absolutely irrelevant in the second half of the movie (why you killed the better thing about your movie, McKay?) but why isn’t Rachel that have swept is beyond me.
Weisz and Stone won some critics awards, but the major ones (NYFCC, NSFC, LAFCC) were won by King. Haven’t yet seen Beale Street so I won’t say anything about King’s performance. But yes, Weisz is a delight to watch. She is just as good as Colman is.
Last time i checked, King have it won 32, Weisz 8, Stone 3 or 4 and Adams 2.
Beale Street is a great movie, but i don’t get the hype about King’s performance.
It’s a bit like Mahershala Ali in Moonlight. They are both arguably the best in an outstanding ensemble, but not really far apart from the others in the film.
I remember it was a weak Supporting Actor lineup that year too (Bridges, Patel, Hedges and Shannon).
I still have a feeling King won’t win the Oscar. It’s a strange hunch.
When I watched TF the second time I saw how Weisz really stole the film. It’s my favorite performance of the year.
Exactly what I just posted above!
I loved Beale St and think it deserved nominations across the board but Kings sweep prior to SAG/BAFTA makes no sense to me. At all. It’s a very quiet performance.
BAFTA has suspended Bryan Singer’s personal nomination for Bohemian Rhapsody. The film is still nominated for Best British Film.
Oh God this means it is probably winning
There is an assumption floating around that this decision was made so late because they now see that Bohemian Rhapsody won Best British Film.
What is he nominated for? One of the producers?
Interesting article about the author of “The Woman in the Window”. The guy’s a scam artist. I haven’t read the book, but apparently it’s a copy of the 1995 movie “Copycat”? Anyways, fascinating reading. https://www.vox.com/culture/2019/2/4/18210595/dan-mallory-woman-in-window-aj-finn-new-yorker-profile
Poor Amy Adams.
Here’s the New Yorker article it referenced. Crazy Mr. Ripley vibes. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/02/11/a-suspense-novelists-trail-of-deceptions
Honestly couldn’t bring myself to read the rest. Such a pathological liar. If he could lie about having a cancer, he might as well lied about his Bipolar type II.
I just realized that the BAFTAs awarded 3 Billboards Beat Film and Best British Film last year. If that’s the case, The Favourite winning both this year is very much possible. I mean, it’s a thousand miles better film than the former and not to mention the critical acclaim it recieved.
I really hope this is the year that the British Academy goes on their own independently all the way as opposed to going the Oscars way. The Oscars is just a mess and all over the place this year since they announced the Most Popular Movie award. It never picked itself up from there on given we’re just few weeks away from the show.
Also does anyone know if NEVER LOOK AWAY is BAFTA eligible this year?
I don’t think The Favourite will win Best Film, I think it will only win Best British Film.
Yeah but the same movie winning both is very rare and happening again so soon is next to impossible. It’s either Roma and The Favorite or The Favorite and Bohemian Rhapsody.
Even if the chances of a film taking both were very rare the chances this year would be the same not next to impossible as the two events are independent.
You should expect the two to line up much more often as British Film used to be a jury award (which is why critically acclaimed indies often won) but now is a popular vote.
What events are independent?
A film winning both last year and a film winning both this year.
And that’s very rare at BAFTA. I seriously don’t understand his point of view. By the way British Film is by public vote like Rising Star?
Before 2012 Best British Film was decided by a small jury, which is why Fish Tank beat An Education, Man on Wire beat Slumdog, This is England beat Atonement, The Last King of Scotland beat The Queen ect. while Best Film is a vote by the whole membership.
Now British Film is decided by a large part of the membership in a popular vote.
When decided by different method = Split decisions
When decided by the same method = Same decisions
I am not quite sure that is the case. I thought so too until I read the actual rules.
The old rules were that there was a closed British Film Chapter (i.e. voting branch) that decided the nominations in two rounds, then the whole membership voted for the winner.
New rules were announced in Summer 2012, which applied first in the 2012-2013 season ceremony. Now, there is an open, opt-in British Film chapter that decides both the nominations and the winners, with a special Jury selecting half the nominations instead of the chapter. So the winners are now decided by a more limited group for British Film, whereas in the old days the whole membership decided both Best Film and British Film.
Evidence:
http://static.bafta.org/files/rule-book-bafta-film-awards-1112-1017.pdf
http://awards.bafta.org/sites/default/files/images/ee_british_academy_film_awards_1819-_rules_and_guidelines_-_feature_categories_0.pdf
Even this was not quite accurate:
In 2008-2009, they again used a different system. It was purely Chapter voting then (similarly to now), but it is unclear whether the British Film chapter was a simple opt-in or not. The Foreign Language Film chapter was. (Btw, this was the year when Fish Tank beat An Education.)
I’m getting rather confused.
The quote 2010-2011 rules “Voters have up to ten votes in Round One, and they will be asked to rank their votes from one
to (up to) ten. There is no vote in Rounds Two or Three. The nominees are decided by nonconflicted members of BAFTA’s Film Committee, who use the results of the members’ first round
vote to inform their decisions. The winner is decided by a an expanded jury of the nonconflicted members of BAFTA’s Film Committee plus a range of British writers, producers,
directors and technicians.” (http://static.bafta.org/files/rule-book-bafta-film-awards-1011-656.pdf)
To quote 2008-2009 “The nominees and winner of this award are decided by a combination of membership vote, Film Committee discussion and jury” (http://static.bafta.org/files/rule-book-bafta-film-awards-1011-656.pdf)
They let a chapter vote in the meanless round 1, but round 2 (nominations) and round 3 (winner) was a jury vote.
I haven’t been able to determine where exactly the jury is used in the 2008-2009 document. It says a combination, but at the Chapter/Jury categories it is not listed as a Jury category, but then later it does reference the British Film Jury. If this is the official rulebook, it’s hella messy. If you can pinpoint a page where your round 1-3 assumption comes from, I’d be grateful.
But it doesn’t really solve the original problem: currently, it is not voted on by the full membership. And, as it’s been changing like crazy year to year, it’s hard to find reference years to the current one. Perhaps last year is best, when one film won both Film and British Film.
The Round 1/2/3 comes from the 2010/11 statement I quoted. It doesn’t explicitly say it in 2008-09 but the description fits. It evolved into the 10/11 statement. In 2009-10 it was “The nominees and winner of this award are decided by a combination of membership Round One vote, Film Committee discussion and jury” (http://static.bafta.org/files/full-rule-book-bafta-film-awards-0910-335.pdf).
I never said currently it is voted by the full membership. It’s voted on by the British Chapter which is around 40% of the membership. The point I was making remains; the two awards will now be highly correlated.
British film is not a public vote.
It’s a normal category voted on by the BAFTA membership.EDIT: This is not true. It is decided by an opt-in British Film chapter (branch).Think of it like a lottery. It’s very unlikely that the winning number combination with be 1 2 3 4 5. But let’s say it won last week.
Does it make it more unlikely that it wins again this week? No. It’s just as likely as any week.
Same with BAFTA. Even if we say that it’s rare that a film wins both Film and British Film, it does not suddenly become less likely than otherwise this year just because what happened last year.
Thanks. We’ll see what happens on the 10th.
That’s the reason I have The Favourite for both.
The thing is, a lot of the time there’s no movie strong enough to contend for Best Film in the Best British Film category, even when at least one is nominated for both. Also, BAFTA’s voting procedure changed relatively recently. Don’t know if there’s been any year in which they could have awarded the same film both, and didn’t, since. Gravity comes closest, but 12 Years, which wasn’t British, was the precursor BP consensus that year.
We are foregetting how history will look back on the injustice against GB. How dare people deny its obvious greatness. It is a masterpiece! The telling is that the focus is on the critics of GB rather than on why it is so great and deserves to win BP. How dare people point out what a crap film it is. If they hadn’t, it would easily win the Oscar. I remember a time when Sasha used to champion great films and masterpieces. Now she is just consumed by criticising critics of mediocre films (yes, it’s my opinion and I have right to voice that). For me, there is a credibility gap if you will not put GB as your number 1 of the BP film yet still think it should win. Who on AD thinks GB should win BP? We already know that it is not Sasha, Ryan and Jazz’s favourite film out of the BP list. I am not sure about Marshall, but even though he is a big defender of GB I don’t think it is his favourite. It cannot win just by attacking its critics. So instead of focusing on its critic, let fans of GB tell us why they think it is the best film and should win BP.
I don’t follow you. Who’s stopping any of us from praising GB and saying why we think it should win? Surely not Sasha and the rest of the site’s staff. Praise on, brother, praise on. And I’ll go first, lame as my position is. I haven’t seen every nominated movie, for one thing. For another, if I were voting I think I’d have to vote for “Roma”, because I think it’s artistically superior to those I’ve seen. I can’t quite call it a great movie, but it’s pretty darned impressive.
Yet I’ll be thrilled if GB wins, because I think something in addition to artistry can come into play with a mass medium like movies. Movies always land in a social setting. And I think the country, and I’ll go so far as to say the world, can use a movie like GB right now. Its message of personal reconciliation denies no one anything, makes no exceptions, invites everyone to risk building bridges. I’m for that. And it’s well done, despite the naysayers, not mediocre at all. (I felt similarly about the “Spotlight” win.) So, okay, I’ll cop to it, if I were an Oscar voter I’d hover with my pen or my mouse and just might select GB for BP. And nobody has stopped me from saying this. Free speech on AD. Yay!
“Who’s stopping any of us from praising GB and saying why we think it should win?”
That’s the question I asked. Why is the focus on critics of GB rather than the merits of GB?
“And I think the country, and I’ll go so far as to say the world, can use a movie like GB right now. Its message of personal reconciliation denies no one anything, makes no exceptions, invites everyone to risk building bridges.”
I respect your opinion but I have to disagree. That’s not how I see it at all.
MLK: “This is no time to engage in the luxury of cooling off or to take the tranquilizing drug of gradualism.”
The Fierce Urgency of Now or the Tranquilizing Drug of Gradualism?
“Blackkklansman”/”Black Panther” or “Green Book”? “Do the Right Thing” or Driving Miss Daisy”? “Brokeback Mountain” or “Crash”?
I respect your opinion, too. Thanks for your forthright response.
Thanks. Thanks for being the only one to actually give a positive argument for GB. I don’t agree but at least it’s something.
Thanks.
The defense of Green Book that you see on this site is nearly entirely an effort to push back at Twitter noise that has tried to derail Green Book because of Farrelly’s dick and the disproven claim by a couple of people in Shirley’s family that Tony and Don were ever friends.
If you dont think anyone in the industry is inclined spit in the eye of anyone who attempts to gossip a movie into oblivion, then you underestimate how much some filmmakers resent the idea that their careers could be derailed by some little pissant in the forums at AwardsWatch digging up one single careless retweet.
Sasha understands that some voters take a stand against what they may see as unfair extraneous gossip.
Sorry the surprising pockets of support for a movie you despise is consuming you to the extent that you have to attack us for covering the offscreen trashtalk as a factor.
If the possiblity that some industry voters are pushing back against shit like that is so unfathomable and outlandish to you, where were you the night Green Book won the Producers Guild Award?
Are we on staff here supposed to pretend the PGA didnt happen just because john smith is in a constant snit about it?
It’s not so much a defence of GB as an attack on its critics whatever their motives are. People on Twitter are trying to derail a mediocre film? Why, because it’s mediocre? It is not much different from the way people are trying to derail “Bohemian Rhapsody”. I mean, it won the Globes Drama, for feck’s sake. It was nominated for SAG and PGA and BP. It’s all about pushing back against Twitter woke, right? Good one. Heaven save us. Let’s defend mediocre films by terrible people by focusing attack on its critics. So much noise that all sense has been lost.
Disproving that Don and Tony weren’t friends is the postive thing to do and the kind of thing I am talking about when I say it is telling the focus is on the critics of GB rather than the film itself. Tell us and show us why it’s so good rather than simply calling its critics haters. I mean, a film is supposed to win BP because it’s great, not because it’s got unfair criticisn, right?
It won PGA because it is some sort of a push back against people derailing an awful film directed by a jackass who thought it’s okay to show his junk to people? Well, that’s dumb!
“Sasha understands that some voters take a stand against what they may see as unfair extraneous gossip.”
Trump: “It’s a very scary time for young men in America”
Trump on Kvanaugh: “If you can be an exemplary person for 35 years and then somebody comes and say you did this or that, and they give three witnesses and the three witnesses at this point do not corroborate what she was saying,” Trump said. “It’s a very scary situation where you’re guilty until proven innocent.”
What is truly scary is how liberals who you think are level headed can repeat right wing mantra of white males under attack. Spot the difference?
“It’s not so much a defence of GB as an attack on its critics whatever their motives are.”
I’m glad you got right to the crux of it in your first line, john smith.
In the case of Green Book, we have always always tried to word our resistance to attempts to smear Green Book to focus specifically on Twitter shit-stirring that have tried to paint Mortensen, Farrelly, and Vallelonga as sneaky closet-racists who are creeping around making a movie about racial friendship while deepdown they’re nothin but racists themselves.
That shit makes us sick.
Do we always phrase our pushback to specify that these are the attacks we want to refute? Probably sentences have been written here that can be willfully misread.
But people who know Sasha and who know this site should know that Sasha would never presume to question genuine critics who have bad or mixed feelings about the angle the movie choses to portray.
Whenever we talk about “Twitter attacks” or the weird phenomenon of self-appointed “twitter critics” do you seriously think we’re referring to a review in The New Yorker, or respectable voices of dissent among prominent voices of people of color?
Surely you’re not confused about that.
Have you ever EVER seen us post a piece that targets our own readers to slap their opinions out of their mouths? No you have not. So why would you think we would do that for Green Book?
Think and feel whatever the heck you want about Green Book. We don’t monitor or mute that of dissent.
But yes, you will see us push back if anyone wants to whine about how Peter Farrelly flashing his penis should disqualify Green Book or ostracize anyone who dares to enjoy watching it (the movie, not the penis).
Ostracize is a cool word. I shall use it more often.
“Those who want to defend Green Book or feel it has been unfairly attacked might push it to the top or near the top of their ballots even if they didn’t put it at number one.”
“Green Book” is a victim of its own mediocrity. Nothing to do with woke Twitter which I don’t follow and neither do many people either. It isn’t going to win because of a sympathy votes. Cooper did a much better film and is going to leave empty handed. Saying GB is a masterpiece is a valid, if a highly dubious, position to hold. However, saying ranking GB low is only because it is hated and is a political gesture frankly wrong and insulting.
john smith, just so you know, I don’t like wasting your time or mine even responding to comments that sneer at the Oscar analysis we post here.
But do you expect me to let this mess slide:
“How dare people deny its obvious greatness. It is a masterpiece!”
Do you not see how I’m going to take it personally when you take a crude and false poke at us like that?
Nobody on AD has ever said that Green Book is masterpiece or beyond reproach.
So if you’ll please quit saying dumb stuff like this that you know is a lie, then I won’t need to explain to you how sickening it is to deal with comments like this every day.
Sasha writes about how Green Book might rank on the ballots.
She’s not writing about why it should win Best Picture. She’s writing about how it could.
Alright?
“Sasha writes about how Green Book might rank on the ballots. She’s not ever writing about why it should win Best Picture. She’s only about how it could.”
When you relate the controversies to its chances of winning BP, do you expect us to not object and point out that it deserves to lose because it is not the best film? Sasha says it is ranked low because it is hated; we say, no, it is ranked low because it is one of the worst films out of the BP nominees. Claiming that is the only reason it will be ranked low is ridiculous. I give the Academy a bit more credit than that. Their choices might not always be good but I highly doubt their choices are influenced by woke Twitter. I mean, AD readers are younger and more social media savvy yet we don’t know or care about the shitstorm on Twitter about GB. It’s always baffling to us because we are not in that bubble.
“Nobody on AD has ever said that Green Book is masterpiece or beyond reproach.”
That is exactly the point I was making. I know you don’t and that’s why saying this is absolutely ridiculous: “A movie like Green Book would only be ranked very low if people HATED it and the only way they would ever hate a movie like Green Book (as opposed to indifference, for instance) is if they felt supporting it was some sort of political gesture, which many of them do”.
I was only trying to make the point that the film will fall on its own merits. The fact that you cannot talk about its merits and why it deserves to win is clear proof that it should lose on its own merits.
“So if you’ll please quit saying dumb stuff like this that you know is a lie, then I won’t need to explain to you how sickening it is to deal with comments like this every day.”
I was deliberately misquoting you or paraphrasing what you didn’t say to highlight the fact that you aren’t defending GB on its merits but simply attacking its critics for what you guys deem to unfair criticism. You agree with us and those who don’t think it should be any near winning BP but for some unknown reason you feel compelled to defend GB and even dismiss those who will rank it low out of the nominees because they simply don’t like it. When the debate isn’t about the merits of the film, you kind of lost the plot. I don’t mind if Sasha goes off on these kinds of topics and we be happy to debate them on their own. But when its related to GB’s chances of winning BP, it’s a different matter. GB deserves to lose on its own merits and controversies have what controversial films have and what controversial filmmakers have. I mean, why does “Roma” not have any controversies like GB despite being among the frontrunners since its debut in Venice?
“Spot the difference?”
Yes, I can fucking spot the difference.
Kavanaugh is credibly accused of attempted rape, and it scarred his victim for life, and he clearly lied about it, victimizing his victim all over again, and now he’s on the Supreme Court for the rest of his boofing life.
Farrelly is accused of joking around and flashing his weenie, and nobody was hurt (or impressed), and he fessed up and apologized, and now (horrors!) he’s up for an Oscar that he will probably lose, and so what?
I can spot a lot of differences bewteen those two scenarios.
There’s something seriously wrong with you if you can’t.
But keep talking, dude.
Keep proving to everyone that you are unable to weigh the relative severity of totally disparate transgressions
And then please keep trying to preach that your fucked-up moral compass about penis deployment is better than mine.
“If you dont think anyone in the industry is inclined spit in the eye of anyone who attempts to gossip a movie into oblivion, then you underestimate how much some filmmakers resent the idea that their careers could be derailed by some little pissant in the forums at AwardsWatch digging up one single careless retweet. Sasha understands that some voters take a stand against what they may see as unfair extraneous gossip.”
Trump: “It’s a very scary time for young men in America” Trump on Kvanaugh: “If you can be an exemplary person for 35 years and then somebody comes and say you did this or that, and they give three witnesses and the three witnesses at this point do not corroborate what she was saying,” Trump said. “It’s a very scary situation where you’re guilty until proven innocent.”
I was not talking about those situations but the defence being used to deflect legitimate criticism. It is the argument one uses as a cloak, a shield against legitimate criticism. I call it the witch hunt defence. It’s a scary time for filmmakers, you know.
” Farrelly is accused of joking around and flashing his weenie, and nobody was hurt (or impressed), and he fessed up and apologized, and now (horrors!) he’s up for an Oscar that he will probably lose, and so what?”
Do you think that what he did was a joke? because that is just rationalisation that type of behaviour. Saying it was a joke would intimate it’s an acceptable thing to do.
What’s interesting though is how this site thinks it’s their crusade to defend Green Book, when they are always on twitters side with scandals such as Hart.
What? Sasha wrote several posts on how the twitter crusade against Hart was unhealthy.
Sasha resisted the twitter attacks on Kevin Hart from the get go.
We resisted the twitter attacks on Three Billboards. (To our own peril. We got the shit beat out of us over that one.)
We resisted the Twitter attacks on the age difference in Call Me By Your Name.
We have made an effort to weigh each of the most prominent #metoo accusations, and tried to assess them as individual cases and not a blanket right or wrong incident.
Can you name any outrage-du-jour “scandal” generated on social media that this site has decided to side with?
Completely concur with Ryan’s position here. Totally. PGA’s verdict is telling, Kareem Abdul Jabar’s brilliant statement on why the fuss on the film is misguided and generally strong reviews seem more significant than the hit squad’s problems.
Off topic- it is right that last year’s acting Oscar winners are NOT presenting the awards to this year’s winners? It is because they want “bigger stars” to present the awards.
I just read that Alison Janney is upset,
Say it isn’t so? What the fuck is wrong with AMPAS
I hope you’re wrong because if you’re right that is absolutely bullshit! This is a long standing tradition (except in certain circumstances where there is a reason why it doesn’t happen) and it makes so much sense… If they pick their presenters based on whether they have been avengers it will feel so desperate and forced and I will start to question why I follow this so deeply (I mean question more than I already have with all the shit they have pulled this year).
Seriously as if throwing a bunch of awards to commercial breaks wasn’t bad enough. At least there’s hope – they went back on the not allowing the song nominees to perform thing so they could go back on this!
As mich as I like the fact that all song nominees will perform, that means way more categories in the commercial breaks. 3 hours are 3 hours.
Urgh I know! But maybe it’ll actually mean less shooting hotdog cannons instead of less categories and that would be nice
Directly from the news report
Actress Allison Janney became an Oscar winner last year, taking home the Best Supporting Actress statue for her role as Tonya Harding’s mother in I, Tonya.
But this year, it seems she’s out in the cold, thanks to a shock move from Oscars organisers to break with long-held tradition.
For years, the winners in each of the best actor and actress categories have been presented by the previous year’s winner: Last year’s best actress winner presents this year’s best actor award, and vice versa. The same goes for the best supporting actor and actress awards.
But not this year, it seems — allegedly because the Academy is chasing “bigger stars” to present those categories instead
Who are bigger stars than Gary Oldman or Frances McDormand? These are veterans that everyone knows and loves. They have like 20 other categories where they could get Jennifer Lawrence to present. (Or who is even considered a big star? I’m quite puzzled.)
I would love an Oscar telecast where all the presenters were a “Whatever happened to…” checklist, actors labelled the “next big thing” back then and then poof! gone. People plucked from the depths of obscurity and showing up on stage, as the audience gasps, “oh my god, that person was famous in that one movie in the 1980s!”. Imagine Bridget Fonda, Josh Hartnett, Katherine Heigl, Billy Zane, Brendan Fraser, Mira Sorvino, Cuba Gooding, Haley Osment, Helen Hunt, Cary Elwes, Val Kilmer…you get my drift. Now THAT would be a fun show.
And here to present Best Supporting Actress… DRAKE!
If that is true, come on. Bigger stars than the recent Oscar winners? Idk what happened to the Academy this year but I kinda hope this show will be a disaster and they revert to the classic formula next year.
This idea that we need bigger stars to present speaks volumes of what the Academy thinks of the people they’ve rewarded in the past.
They keep trying to change things in a desperate, pathetic attempt to please everybody, but all they’re doing is turning off their most loyal viewers, the people who want to make a whole night of the Oscars because it’s an all-night event like the Super Bowl to them. I don’t want the ceremony to be over before my party is even half finished with the wine and cheese, FFS. They need to just accept that the Oscars will never be a short show, and that to make it a short show, it would fundamentally have to stop being the Oscars, because everything we love about it (the musical performances, the past winners presenting to the new ones, the passionate speeches from the below-the-line winners, etc.) has to be discarded. I wouldn’t be surprised if we didn’t even get nomination clips for the acting performances.
I guarantee when this ceremony bombs, they’ll blame it on the lack of a host, and not on the backlash of changing everything people actually watch the Oscars for. You’re never going to see Titanic numbers again, but you can always have a reliable, “wins the night + remains one of the year’s top-rated broadcast”-sized audiences if you don’t go out of your way to tell people that the show they like isn’t the show you’re trying to put on.
Last year’s winners are bigger names then a couple of the presenters they’ve already announced. So bizarre. Stop trying to attract people that don’t wanna watch.
Funny that one of the co-producers spent 3 minutes proposing his girlfriend at the Emmys when he won but limited reaching stage + speech time to 90 seconds. He would actually kick his own butt. And that was the most commented moment of the Emmys.
It seems that this ceremony is in the hands of many people out of the touch with the reality.
Breaking the tradition of the past winners is acceptable in special circumstances like Casey Affleck last year or when they made the 5 past winners present (Just wish they waited one more year so Javier would have presented the Oscar to Penélope).
Do they really think bringing Oprah Winfrey or Tom Hanks to present instead of Francis McDormand or Gary Oldman is making ratings go up? As of the other two are not very well known people. Gary Oldman played one of the most popular characters in the second most popular film franchise ever. McDormand provided the most memorable moment from last year’s ceremony.
Alison Janney is less wide known than Awkwafina, Maya Rudolph and Amandla Stenberg? Or is it straight out ageism against last year’s winners?Curious that sb that spent the whole career trying to bring stories about strong women like Shakespeare in Love and Hidden Figures could be signing the butt kicking of such important actresses like Janney and McDormmand.
A deeply misguided decision. AMPAS is forgetting that the formal ritual of last year’s winning actors presenting to this year’s winners is a passing on of the torch, or handing off the baton. While there’s a vast technical apparatus surrounding movie actors, until they step in front of that camera and make something human happen, you ain’t got no movie. You may have pretty pictures, but you don’t have a movie that moves people. Working actors share that unique responsibility. We need to see them salute one another, something only fellow actors can fully, properly do.
“Stardom” and “working actor” are NOT the same category. They may overlap. but having done the work is what’s being rewarded when you’re given an Oscar. Last year’s winner did the work. And says . . . So have you, this year’s winner. In announcing your winning of this award and handing it to you, I salute you fellow actor — not fellow “star”.
BAFTA complete commission off first man and black panther is a disgrace frankly one thing academy does better than BAFTA is they accommodate more best PIC contenders….it just academy horribly inconsistent with no . of best PIC nominees per year …8,7,10,9,8 whatever no. Per year it really sums up the cataclysmic mess academy made for themselves over last 7 yrs.
As for BAFTA they been strongly off the mark to public sentiment almost as much as Oscar have ever since I bloody well say it the unjust snub of the dark knight.
I say this cos it was the penultimate game changing blockbuster it indisputable fact that had precise script , ridiculously hugely critically acclaimed , amazing consistent strong performances across the board and absolute Oscar winning standout with heath ledger as the joker…it was IMAX for mainstream it was tremendously entertaining, engaging , moving and dramatic and yet oy cos it was a ” comic book movie” it was snubbed well no….this is exactly what pisses lot of public off with awards season …it was drama, it was dark, it felt..as though it could almost really happen…and anyway nobody in Hollywood had courage to bring IMAX into mainstream cinema. Way Nolan has.
My point? That was moment the defining flashpoint moment BAFTA, the guilds and the academy turned blind eye and so hence since that time they have rightfully worn the tag of displaying shamefully blatant reckless genre- discrimination, inviting all industry / public pressure on themselves through their ignorance to truth a film like the dark knight was not just comic book adaptation ( even ignoring their own peers in critics overwhelming praise of films of almost calibre of the dark knight – which is why hardly anyone I’m film going public regard academy with any credibility anymore )
And had they embraced and Least by host of Oscar nominations w be talking how excited we are to see black panther steam roll competition today rather than despairing at it chances to win. It was one moment in Oscars recent history that could have transformed way we perceive oscar race on films we know are true best picture of today.
BAFTA either fall into line with guilds sentiment misguided at times ( not so much this year though) , or they let politics cloud their judgement or can’t be bothered thinking carefully nominees make final cut . they too like academy are sabotaging their public reputation to filmgoers across Britain . it really disappointing we should all be disappointed hugely in BAFTA .
You see, the Academy (AMPAS) and BAFTA are fundamentally different.
1. The Oscars are regarded as the ultimate film award worldwide. This puts pressure on them to recognize worldwide talent. Meanwhile, BAFTA is mostly a British thing that doesn’t matter too much outside the UK, so they can get away with showing some bias towards British films and filmmakers, and caring less about American stories.
2. AMPAS relies on the tens of millions of people watching their awards ceremony worldwide, with frequent commercial breaks. Therefore it has to cater to the viewers’ tastes, as they depend on TV ratings each year. That’s why there is such a push to make the Oscars “relevant” again. The BAFTA, however, is an independent charity that broadcasts its awards show primarily for the UK viewership on the BBC (the public broadcaster) with no commercial breaks. In other words, they don’t have to care about what the audience thinks, and can vote for whatever.
As always friend you ever so construct tively sum up what I other people saying so well ….with your insights …careful u may be becoming one of my ” favourites ” get it? No but seriously course I mean it too. But u sum up where BAFTA attitude is still not cool to omit the public …glad u admit Oscar struggling for public relevance …it not just about ratings it about rediscovering their core guiding principle s to make academy great like they used to be to everyone once again …loooomg way off that.
To do that…they must overcome their toxic reputation. To stop opposing types of films chances to win and certain filmmakers and stop the long cue of ” I owe u’s” but..pigs may fly ey?
Strange lack of support from experts for green book for Oscar BP on gold derby
16 Roma
2 Black Panther!
1 BlackKK
To be fair, most are having Green Book at number 2.
But you would expect a few number 1s for a film that is ranked second.
Does Richard E. Grant have any chance? I hope so.
What exactly was this controversy about Three Billboards? The Sam Rockwell’s character’s arc?
https://www.vulture.com/2018/01/oscars-2018-your-guide-to-the-three-billboards-backlash.html
I’m predicting Colman for the win, but since Close hasn’t won any BAFTA, they might want to give it to her. Colman has won 3 BAFTAs and those are for the TV awards. I don’t know if the people who vote for the TV and Film are the same people, but it’s clear that BAFTA love Colman (3 BAFTAs in 5 years; won 2 on the same night).
In recent years, BAFTA has given the win to actors who were favored to win the Oscars, but there were times when they pulled-off some surprises to award Brits (Patel, Bonham-Carter). Close winning should not be a surprise since she is locked for the Oscars and she hasn’t won a BAFTA, but I really hope Colman will be awarded a BAFTA since she is British and she delivered a brilliant performance playing a dead English monarch.
Fascinating to discover that the only Best Film BAFTA winner to not be nominated for Directing was ‘Educating Rita’.
Actually, there’s also The Purple Rose of Cairo (1985) – but those are the only ones.
You are technically sort of correct, but technically sort of not, since unless you have info that I don’t, there are no records of any Directing nominees in the year of Purple Rose – so it doesn’t really count.
Ah – how on Earth did I miss this?! 🙂 Weird… Thanks for the correction! Stat’s even stronger, then.
“the only way they would ever hate a movie like Green Book (as opposed to indifference, for instance) is if they felt supporting it was some sort of political gesture”
Actually, there are quite a few people like me who think it’s a hackneyed, trite, poorly made movie full of dumb stereotypes whose sole redeeming feature is Mahershala Ali’s Herculean work bringing gravitas to an insultingly written character.
That it’s made by people who are “politically incorrect” is obvious from its messaging, but not why I didn’t like it, I didn’t like it because it’s a bad movie. It’s The Blind Side 2 and while a quaint, ignorant, overly simplified approach to race is certainly a part of that, so is cheap writing, lazy direction, and incessantly pandering to the lowest common denominator. I know lots of fellow cinephiles who don’t really care about the Oscar race, saw it before the controversy, and dismissed it for the crap it was. Not everything about film appreciation or lack thereof must be tied to performative wokeness and it’s silly to suggest otherwise. Art is subjective and many recognize it as bad art simply on the basis of what’s there onscreen.
Seriously, you’re comparing Green Book with The Blind Side?
I am still thinking over my predictions, but I have to say: Winning the Best Film at the BAFTAs is not a good thing. Only 39% of all BAFTA winners have won Best Picture at the Oscars. Currently they are on a 4 loss losing streak. So if you think Roma will win Best Picture at the Oscars, winning here wouldn’t be a good sign.
The BAFTAs have never 100% matched the Oscar winners in the major non-editing categories. 6/8 is the highest ever.
First, BAFTA’s track record should only count from when they moved to before the Oscars. That is when they started trying to predict the Oscars. And to be fair, everybody thought LLL would win the Oscar.
8/18 is still under 50%.
I would say the years before that should count for something too, simply because, looking at their winners throughout history, it’s clear they weren’t particularly influenced by whatever won the Oscar, if at all. Which doesn’t seem to have changed THAT much – they don’t seem to be trying to predict the Oscars these days either. More likely, the 500 voter overlap is what makes their winners still be reasonably close to the Academy’s, on average.
It doesn’t quite work like that. Winning isn’t a bad thing for a movie, it’s just that many films that managed to win the Oscar didn’t manage to get the BAFTA before. In that sense it’s harder to win the BAFTA for a certain kind of film than the Oscar. It doesn’t mean that if a film does win the BAFTA, its chances get lower at the Oscars.
Fully agreed. I find it silly that people think a certain award is a curse. If Roma loses BAFTA, some will say that it doesn’t have enough industry support. And if it wins they would say well there goes its chance of winning the Oscar.
Like aroncido said – since there are five BAFTA Best Film nominees each year (probably on average, too), more than 20% of them winning the Oscar as well is a sign of STRENGTH, not weakness. Almost 40% means the BAFTA winner repeats at the Oscars almost double the expected number of times it should if there was no correlation. (O.K., recently Oscar has had more nominees, but no BAFTA Best Film-snubbed movie has won since then anyway, so it’s all about the same.)
So I discovered this a few years ago. If you go back in BAFTA history (back to the very beginning but even after the changes in the early 00s) there is ALWAYS a British acting winner, even in a year when there is not supposed tp be. This is how I predicted Dev Patel for Lion.
The only exception was Meryl playing a British woman in a British film from a British director with British funding (2011 and The Iron Lady). So she basically counts.
However, as I discovered last year in this new age they don’t automatically throw the statue at Brits even when they are worthy (Manville), especially when an Oscar frontrunner has been decided. More than 2 British winners would be highly unlikely for this reason.
People are pretty sure Bale/Colman/Grant/Weisz are the stealers, but I am not so sure about all of them. Only 1 or 2 of these will steal. Who is it going to be?
So rapt Patel won for Lion, an amazing performance. Ali should give him the Oscar if wins for Green Book!
Since they snubbed Ali for Patel, will they do it to him again for Grant?
I don’t think that would be a great look for them. I think Ali is safe this time. They like to course correct after Oscar diverge (like when they gave Lawrence the BAFTA for American Hustle after she lost to Riva)
I think the Lawrence win was because they love American Hustle to also award it Original Screenplay. I don’t think its a make up award since I have expected Riva to take the BAFTA that year. They also didn’t like SLP that much if U can recall.
The only exception was Meryl playing a British woman in a British film from a British director with British funding (2011 and The Iron Lady). So she basically counts.
That could be Malek this year. And none of the Brits will have to get up from their seat.
Yep that is very true. Hadn’t thought of it but yep. I do think Weisz is winning whatever happens but maybe it’s just them two.
I think Colman is almost locked and Weisz will win because she won’t have to upset anyone, as the category has no frontrunner.
Just discovered this fact:
Discounting the early years of the Academy when there were so few categories as to render them statistically irrelevant in this case, only three movies have won Best Picture after receiving only five nominations. EVER.
The Greatest Show On Earth (1952)
Annie Hall (1977)
The Departed (2006)
Each of those three movies were also nominated for Best Director. (Two of them won.)
In the same era (again, discounting the early years), only two movies have won Best Picture without a Best Director nomination: Argo and Driving Miss Daisy. But Argo had seven nominations — and Driving Miss Daisy had nine, making it the most-nominated movie of its year, which many people forget.
For Green Book to win with only five nominations AND no Best Director nomination would be literally unprecedented. It would have a hard time overcoming those prohibitive stats even if it WASN’T the most divisive movie of the year.
Interesting. Although of course Roma is foreign language and that would be unprecedented too. I am moving towards Roma but if it wins BAFTA I am switching back to Green Book.
I think there are more BP nominees with 5 or less nods than there are FLFs being nominated for BP (9). Ditto for BP nominees w/o directing nod.
But but but it’s such a feel-good movie! How can anyone resist?
Good points, but I fail to see how literally the only legitimate option left is Roma, which still feels off somehow.
The most divisive movie of the year?
How do you figure that this would be anything close to true when it comes to Academy voters?
That’s how it to many people. It maybe not be an issue for the Academy because it’s hard to know that right now. We might need the THR’s secret voters to tell us.
Well, a film MUST be nominated for the major categories at least to stand a chance of winning BP. The five major categories are BP, BD, screenplay, acting and Editing. You cannot win without them, especially in recent years.
I think Weisz is going to take Supporting Actress at the BAFTAs. Since the category is all over the place, I could see a scenario like in 2016 where Winslet won it. They won’t mind giving Wesiz her second BAFTA. Plus she’s a home grown talent. Now really hoping Colman and E. Grant win as well.
Weisz don’t have a BAFTA.
she went leader in 2006 and lost to Reese Witherspoon.
Thanks for correction. I thought she won for The Constant Gardener. If that’s the case, her winning is most likely now.
I think it’s either/or re: Grant/Weisz. So I say Grant is out. I fell into the Brit trap last year when predicting Lesley Manville.
Problem with Manville last year is that she didn’t have the big awards telecast precursors nods like the Globes and SAG so being British was a non factor while Weisz and E. Grant have been getting nods after nods since the beginning of the season.
But in the UK we don’t watch those ceremonies because they are not televised here and if you were to stream it it would start at 2 in the morning. It is hard enough to even watch the Oscars. SAG awards is largely unheard of and never publicised.
I do think they take their cues from the Globe results though which are shown on the national news the following day. Colman winning Globe lead the news as she is a national treasure so that is a big reason why she will win BAFTA.
Really hope Colman gets her wl deserved and earned BAFTA. It’s the year’s best and finest performance male or female.
I know most are thinking Weisz a lock in Supporting Actress but the way this year has been, I wouldn’t be shocked if it’s Foy or Robbie. Just makes that race harder to figure out.
I think that is better for the race an Adams or a Weisz win (and a Rachel win is definitively better for Regina). If Foy or Robbie end up winning will be an easy win for King, since Weisz and Adams will end up without a win in any of the precursors
I think Roma takes Best Picture, Director and Foreign.
I think The Favourite takes Best British Film, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Production Design and Costumes.
I think Bohemian Rhapsody takes Actor and Editing.
I think Green Book takes Supporting Actor.
I think Blackkklansman takes Adapted Screenplay.
I think Cold War takes Cinematography (because they clearly loved it).
I think Stan & Ollie takes Hair/Make-Up (they loved it).
I think First Man takes Sound because I believe it takes something.
I think A Star is Born takes “Best Music”.
I think Black Panther actually wins its one and only competitive category, FX.
I think Spider-man takes Animated.
I think Letitia Wright wins Rising Star.
And I think They Shall Not Grow Old takes Documentary (Britain, WWI).
Yes, They Shall Not Grow Old really struck a chord in the UK and will win easily.
My choices were quite similar. Although I did pick The Favourite for both makeup and editing, which made me change Picture for it was well (it’s hard to see such a sweep without a Picture win). I put Bohemian Rhapsody in sound, and Beale Street in music. (Still very skeptical about ASIB’s chances there.)
Hard pass.
“A movie like Green Book would only be ranked very low if people HATED it and the only way they would ever hate a movie like Green Book (as opposed to indifference, for instance) is if they felt supporting it was some sort of political gesture, which many of them do.”
This is complete nonsense on multiple levels. First of all, there are only eight nominees. SOMETHING’s gotta be last in your ranking. Doesn’t mean you’re attempting a “political gesture” or even that you hated it; it just means that you liked the other seven movies more. It’s really as simple as that.
Second of all, even if you do hate Green Book, of course you can hate it and not have a political agenda. There’s no law requiring people to like it. Thinking it’s a bad movie regardless of its politics is a completely legitimate opinion to have.
That comment really jumped out at me too. Something Sasha seems to overlook a lot when talking about the preferential ballot is that it’s entirely possible to rank something low even if you don’t “hate” it. Black Panther, for example, isn’t necessarily “hated” per se but it’s still going to be ranked low on a lot of ballots simply because a lot of people don’t don’t take it seriously and don’t feel compelled to support it. Similarly it’s very easy to not see a lot of merit or need to reward something as simplistic as Green Book, it’s not exactly a cinematic achievement regardless of politics.
Boy I’m glad the Academy members look at the ART of the movie and not the Politics.
Exactly. I don’t hate Green Book – heck, I gave it a positive review! – but it would definitely be seventh on my list.
Green Book is great and the 2nd best film of the year after Roma. So glad to see Green Book haters see its success
If there is one thing BAFTA like to do then that would be to give momentum to british films. The favorite is winning a LOT of awards. Picture, supporting actress, screenplay and so on. I seriously believe that bohemian rhapsody will win best british film and there is a strong possiblity that freddie mercury being british is gonna trump christian bale’s nationality and malek could very well win best actor. It all depends on how much they want to reward and respect christian bale who has not won even a single bafta and yet he is considered one of the biggest british star in hollywood or they could just shrug their shoulders and consider christian bale to be as british as an american flag aka since he spent his whole career in hollywood, he shouldn’t be considered british.
I currently have The Favourite taking 6, but wouldn’t be surprised if it went higher.
Same for me.
Right. When was the last time Bale speak with a British/Welsh accent in a film?
They will vote for a British Freddie before voting for an American Dick.
that would be a mistake on their part that they will have to live for the rest of their lives but even if they forget…their fate will show them that they are wrong.
Velvet Goldmine I guess but I’m probably wrong about that.
The Prestige?
Spot on. I honestly think most us Brits think he is American anyway.
I almost fell off my chair seeing this article start with blackKK. Seriously. Enough with the blackKK predictions, it’s embarrassing. It’s lost every time. Every time.
It has NO CHANCE of BAFTA BP. No chance at all.
And winning WGA would NOT be a coup. It would be an semi-expected win and would help it to a screenplay win. It would mean nothing more than that.
And why has the Scripter snub being ignored for BlackKK?
BlackKK is the Ladybird of the season- overpredicted and may end up with zero Oscars. Worse though as at least Ladybird won Globes.
Winner 0 critics choice awards. Winner 0 glolden globe awards. Winner 0 SAG awards. Loser of PGA and DGA. It’s not winning BP. It’s at best 3rd, maybe even be 4th behind The Favourite.
And don’t think I don’t like it. Watched it a second time and it’s held up well. It’s a like to nominate but not like to win with voters
Whilst the favourite would be expected to win, Roma could show its strength here. BAFTA has not matched Oscar BP since 2014, so a favourite BP win might not matter in the end.
On an unrelated note, wouldn’t it be wonderful if the underrecognised Beale St won TWO Oscars- screenplay and supp actress or THREE with Score and beat out most other BP nominees did wins?
It’s being hyped because it’s probably the only film that can win besides Roma, so acknowledging its defeat would mean acknowledging that the competition is pretty much over.
I think Green Book is a serious challenger. It’s being hyped because Sasha really wants a horse to back and First Man bombed so she’s backing BlackKK.
Hard to see why she isn’t pushing a potentially-history making foreign female-led film more.
Or a three-female-led British film?
I’m still predicting it.
I’m fairly certain the Brits will pick Rami Malek as Best Actor over Christian Bale – – – the Brits love Freddie Mercury, and it would be unthinkable to NOT award Malek for his mulit-layered channeling of FM in Bohemian Rhapsody. While everyone admires Bale and his portrayal of the much-hated DICK Chaney, it comes down to this: do they love FM more than they hate DC? I think it’s Malek’s to lose.
So the biggest lock I can find here is actually in rising star – there is a formula for these. Firstly they must be in a big blockbuster that general audiences passionately love/ that makes lots of money. Then if there isn’t a really obvious one they really should be British.
Looking at the nominees Wright is the only one in a blockbuster (even if it didn’t do as well in England as in America). While it’s not quite as obvious as Holland winning 2 years ago I see it more obvious than last year (which itself was pretty obvious that Kaluuya would beat Timmy – an Brit in a movie that made money over an American in movies that didn’t) and there is nobody else that I can make an argument for winning so it must be her!
As for the big ones, I’m still going with Roma for BP because it just feels like something the British people will get behind. Even with the favourite waiting in the wings. I don’t see green book being a BAFTA movie so it’ll have to be fine with just SActor (as long as Grant doesn’t pull that out from under him). The Favourite and BlacKKKlansman for screenplay should be pretty strong, actress and actor I just don’t know what to predict and SActess I’m going obvious and picking Weisz.
Only one movie in the last 50 years (before that their acting categories were British-Foreign, not Lead-Supporting) has won Best Film without at least one BAFTA nomination for acting. And there were only 4 nominees in each acting category when that happened, in 1974.
You’re probably right about Letitia Wright – yet I’ll just go ahead and predict Barry Keoghan, in spite of that. 🙂 I never do well in these precursor contests anyway. (Probably precisely because I don’t care that much about them.)
Best Supporting Actress. Finally a really unpredictable category! I’m going with my heart and predicting Rachel Weisz, but my gut tells me Margot Robbie stands a shot here.
I also think this is where Richard E. Grant may finally land. I just want to hear him give ONE acceptance speech for this performance. Universe, hear my plea!
It’s really a shame that Richard E. Grant hasn’t won any major awards. I think he is much more deserving of the Oscar than Ali.
Ali gives a really good performance, best thing about that mediocre movie. It’s the category fraud that irritates me.
God forbid they put 2 actors against each other in leading categories like they used to do ALL THE TIME!
100 percent agree. Ali is unquestionably a lead performance in Green Book.
Hmmm….is Grant campaigning like Ali?
Grant is campaigning his butt off. He’s charming and enjoying every moment. The one thing he doesn’t have — a premiere HBO cable show broadcasting during Oscar campaign season. Even as a Grant fan, you can’t watch True Detective and be reminded of how good Ali is in everything.
I urge everybody to go listen to his interview on Marc Maron’s podcast. His life is quite fascinating.
There’s a report out there that at the Oscar luncheon, Spike Lee applauded for all of the director nominees when announced except for… Farrelly.
He did applaud when Farrelly was called on the podium for the class photo. It’s on the video.
Well then this reporter is lying.
https://www-vulture-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.vulture.com/amp/2019/02/2019-oscar-nominees-class-photo-released.html?usqp=mq331AQCCAE%3D&_js_v=0.1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&_tf=From%20%251%24s
Quite possible.
See it for yourself:
https://youtu.be/pIoObPOgQYU?t=363
Amy Adams though
lmao
It was very brief though…
The uproar for Regina King… Sam Elliott … Ali…
yikes…that’s almost an hour. take a close look at them, folks. you won’t see most of them anymore since they will be awarded during the commercial break.
Florian von Donnersmarck is like a giant, literally
Vulture (NY Mag )reporters are misleading
Green Book’s paltry nomination count and Farrelly’s miss sort of tells me that despite the PGA win that the support for the film is on the softish side. It could be that the “controversy”, which this site continues to obsess on, really isn’t anything the voters care about
Yes, it lacks below the line love. For a period film missing things like art direction and costume is not a good thing.
Yes, even Driving Miss Daisy was nominated 9 times.
Departed did win with only five nominations, but the “Marty is overdue” narrative definitely pushed that over the line.
Also that was a year when none of the BP nominees had more nominations. The nominations leaders were Dreamgirls and Pan’s Labyrinth.
Really? I could swear Babel had more than five nods.
Yeah, that’s not correct. Babel had 7, The Queen had 6, The Departed had 5, and Letters From Iwo Jima and Little Miss Sunshine both had 4.
Still a pretty low tally across the board.
When is the last time a film with five nominations won BP over two films or more with double digit tallies?
Spotlight had six nominations, but that would be close.
That IS the last time.
The last time before that was Annie Hall in 1977, which had five nominations and won over Julia (11), The Turning Point (11), and Star Wars (10).
(In the meantime, Spotlight, Crash, and Ordinary People won with six noms total.)
And Star Wars fans to this day are mad
I love Annie Hall but I’d still give Star Wars BP… It’s like Titanic or LoTR… It’s too impressive and ground breaking to ignore. Even by the time of the Oscars the following year it was a massive success… AH deserved everything else it won enough though… Except I’d maybe give Spielberg the edge for BD for CLOSE ENCOUNTERS.
In the context of 1977, the “new Hollywood” auteurs that had dominated things since the late 60’s bitterly resented the change to the business model that Lucas and Spielberg caused with their paradigm shifting blockbusters. It’s probably why it fell short at the end, probably didn’t help that Annie Hall was a quantum leap in Woody Allen’s entire approach to film making.
I’d give it to The Goodbye Girl. 🙂
That’s a really interesting stat. I’m sure the site mods would say “so what, preferential ballot”, but for all this talk about how beloved Green Book supposedly is, five nominations is really a bad total especially with the directing miss.
Yep. And the only other movie to ever win with only five noms — outside of the Academy’s first few years in which there were far fewer categories — was The Greatest Show On Earth in 1952. So three in about 80 years or so. That’s a high bar for Green Book to clear.
Cecil B. DeMille, Woody Allen, Martin Scorsese… Peter Farrelly? God, I hope not.
It’s the main reason I’m not predicting it anymore. (Even unofficially.)
Eh, never mind I misread Wikipedia.
It was a period of 1960s, I don’t know how much “Art” direction it needed or costume for that matter. I mean the men wore the same clothes everyday 🙂
Sasha, come on, I think you’re projecting a bit. I would easily rank Green Book 8th, and did so before any controversy even emerged. Nor would I do so for a political reason: I just believe it’s a remarkably bad film. Disagreeing with me is fine, but please do not try to deny the legitimacy of disliking a film simply because of its merits (or lack of merits). It’s a bit insulting.
Exactly. The poor Green Book diatribes never mention the fact that the film is not universally loved. It’s not that good a film, so superficial, so folksy. Not all voters will go for it.
I still think it’s a very strong threat though.
I’m suspecting a strong showing for ‘The Favourite.’ First of all, it’s purely British, loaded with subtle, delicious British humor and extravegant costumes and production design. While I would not object to Yorgos Lanthimos winning for Directing, that honor is almost certainly going to fall to Alfonso Cauron for ‘Roma.’ His handling of the picture and the way in which it was masterfully crafted makes his deserving of the Directing award undeniable – especially considering that Cauron damn-near made the film single-handedly! That’s impressive. Too bad ‘BlacKkKlansman’ wasn’t up for Film Editing. I personally think that was truly the best edited film of the year. But I’m not the BAFTA, the ACE, nor The Academy. My guess is this award will likely go to ‘Bohemian Rhapsody.’
I think this is up for The Favourite, and the race will get wide open.