Yesterday, Roma won Best Film and Best Director at the BAFTAs, setting into motion that old seductive idea that the BAFTA strongly influences, or at least can presage the Oscars, even though they use different balloting systems. More predictive, at least in the modern era of the preferential ballot (2009–present), are the big guilds: producers, directors, actors, and writers. They are each comprised of thousands of voters, but the most closely aligned to the Academy has to be the Producers Guild, who also expanded their slate to an even ten nominees (which I wish the Academy would return to) in 2009, and use the preferential balloting system.
The only two groups, in fact, that do use the preferential ballot for Best Picture are the PGA and the Oscars. Their membership is roughly the same number — around 7,000. The main difference is that the Academy’s largest branch is the acting branch. Producers don’t have all those pesky actors in their ranks and that is perhaps why you don’t see an alignment of 100%.
The factors driving this year’s race include a dirty campaign targeting Green Book, which entered the race as a frontrunner and as such had to be taken down. Is it dead? Well, it might have won the BAFTA if it wasn’t, but Peter Farrelly had no directing nomination in the UK, and he has no directing nomination at the Oscars. Right now, it does appear to be Roma’s to lose. However, some of us are a bit skeptical of this happening. Maybe that hesitancy will be proven to be ridiculous, maybe not. Right now I can pretty much guarantee almost all pundits are predicting Roma, a feeling now fortified by the BAFTA. But is that wise? I’m not sure. The films that won both the BAFTA and the Oscar over the past 10 years also won PGA at the least:
2009: Hurt Locker — PGA/DGA/WGA/BAFTA/Oscar
2010: The King’s Speech — PGA/DGA/SAG/BAFTA/Oscar
2011: The Artist — PGA/DGA/BAFTA/Oscar
2012: Argo — PGA/DGA/SAG/WGA/BAFTA/Oscar
2013: 12 Years a Slave — PGA/BAFTA/Oscar
2014: Birdman — PGA/DGA/SAG/Oscar
2015: Spotlight — SAG/WGA/Oscar
2016: Moonlight — WGA/Oscar
2017: Shape of Water — PGA/DGA/Oscar
So you can see how BAFTA has kind of dropped off in recent years. What could be the reason for this? And moreover, why did picture and director start to drift apart after Argo? Perhaps seeing Argo win without even a nomination for Ben Affleck caused voters to start looking at the two trophies separately. When Ang Lee won for Life of Pi, it seemed to set into motion this idea that the Best Director is more aligned with the visual creativity of the film while Best Picture, or producer, is more aligned with the screenplay.
It’s weird because individual films often win so few Oscars nowadays that sweeps — where one film wins everything — don’t seem to happen anymore. It makes sense: with more Best Picture nominees there are more films that theoretically shouldn’t go home empty handed. Spread the wealth all over the place. You get an Oscar, you get an Oscar, everyone gets an Oscar. However, there HAVE been films that won a lot of Oscars, like Gravity with its seven wins — they just didn’t win Best Picture. The average number of wins for Best Picture now is three Oscars. Spotlight won with just two.
This year will put the big guilds to the test, to see which has the greatest influence. Right now, the Producers Guild is ahead by just a hair. Since 2009 the PGA has reigned by matching Best Picture seven times. The DGA is right behind with six. SAG lags behind that with four.
Judging by recent history, it would be a mistake to side with the BAFTA over, say, the PGA — except for the Deus ex Machina of the “new voters.” The new international voters will choose, at long last, a foreign language film for Best Picture, doing as the BAFTA did by awarding it in both Best Foreign Language Film and Best Picture. But see, the Academy I know doesn’t do this. They have separate categories for a reason. That’s why no film has won in both categories in the 71 years that separate feature film categories have existed. Never. Not in animated, not in documentary, and not in foreign language.
The stat girl me, and the stat guy in our stats guy Marshall Flores, remain skeptical that Roma is a slam dunk. The only problem with that thinking is simply this: If not Roma, then what? This is the hardest question to answer. Which means, paradoxically, it might be the simplest question to answer. It is Roma. And that’s that, Occam’s Razor and all.
I would add a word of caution about this type of thinking based on what we know so far. The history of BAFTA, the preferential ballot (why didn’t Roma win the PGA?) and the impact of, say, Black Panther on the Best Picture race. How many voters will opt for the “popular” movie, even without director, writing, and acting nominations? Believe it or not, Black Panther winning is less of a long shot than Roma winning just based on stats alone. That’s because NO FILM has ever won Best Picture while also being in the foreign language category, while both Wings and Grand Hotel managed to win Best Picture despite missing all three of those critical nominations.
Throw the dice, Oscarwatchers, it’s a free for all. We hope to be getting more poll results if we can find a reliable sample to see how these films rank. The one thing we know for sure is that the only preferential ballot test we’ve seen so far did not result in a Roma win. Will actors make the difference? Will the new members? Possibly. We will have to wait and see.
Wouldn’t it be absolutely NUTS if Roma lost Best Foreign Film, but won Best Picture? ? ?
Now THAT would be a head-scratcher, with an implicit suggestion that the Best Foreign Film (not Roma) was better than all the English films nominated.
It would be unprecedented (and probably a little embarrassing).
I truly believe there is no escenario where Roma either win or loses both. It’s either one or the other for the win
“Believe it or not, Black Panther winning is less of a long shot than Roma winning just based on stats alone. That’s because NO FILM has ever won Best Picture while also being in the foreign language category, while both Wings and Grand Hotel managed to win Best Picture despite missing all three of those critical nominations.”
The logical difference between those two stats is so huge it’s not even worth detailing…
Agreed. It’s probably the silliest thing Sasha has said all season. Sillier than the all in prediction of Lee for DGA.
Thinking about Amy Adams, a bit.
-She could’ve been a close second to King at Globes (and 90 Globes voters mean nothing to AMPAS voters).
-She could’ve been a close second to King at BFCA (BFCA voters mean nothing to AMPAS voters).
-She could’ve been second to Blunt at SAG, where vote splitting could’ve occurred; more voters could’ve voted for Adams in the TV side and Blunt more voted for AQP and not Mary Poppins Returns.
-And she could’ve been second to Weisz at BAFTA (Wesiz is a Brit in a movie that won 7 BAFTAs and she had never won there before).
-And BAFTA is the only voting body similar to the Academy where voters from all branches of filmmaking chime in.
-To that, like Weisz/The Favourite at BAFTA, Adams is in a movie loved by AMPAS (8 noms including BP).
Adams could be RIGHT in there with AMPAS voters and we’d have no idea.
But how did she manage to lose to King, Blunt AND Weisz at different ceremonies? Shouldn’t she have won at least one?
Well, one excuse going around is Globe/SAG voters figured she was going to sweep awards for Sharp Objects only for Arquette to upset her. Goldderby was pushing the “she’s coming out with two SAGS” thing a lot.
But yeah, the fact she’s been ignored so much doesn’t scream out great chances.
Hmm
“Well, one excuse going around is Globe/SAG voters figured she was going to sweep awards for Sharp Objects only for Arquette to upset her.”
Flaw in that theory is the same voters who didn’t expect Arquette to win apparently all voted for Arquette.
🙂
(sorry Michael, I don’t mean to be trying to shred all your theories today. You do raise legit thoughts that are floating around. I just think they are floating like helium balloons, because they’re not substantive.)
Especially among Globes voters, those voters know who’s winning what. They tell each other.
There are only 80 Globes voters. They’re all up in each others business for years.
They’ve probably most of them seen each other naked so I assume they see each other’s ballots.
Just thinking of the possibility of a – now – sorta surprise win for her.
King at the Globes (90 measly voters).
BFCA (voters who would be more apt to vote for King/Beale Street which was beloved by them. AMPAS didn’t love Beale).
BAFTA going to Weisz feels natural.
Plus ……. BAFTA would be the ONLY voting body that would be similar to the Academy in that people from all branches of filmmaking vote.
It’s a long shot. But there are no for-sures in this category, whatsoever.
Right?
We all love Amy Adams here.
If the Academy loved Amy Adams as much as we do, we might have expected them to at least nominate Amy Adams for one of the greatest performances of her career — Arrival.
But they didn’t.
Seems to me the pinnacle of Oscar perversity if they would turn around now and give Amy Adams an Oscar for the shittiest movie she ever had the misfortune to do.
As I noted below, there’s a possibility King and Weisz split the vote and Adams rides off voters unable to resist the idea of her and Close winning in the same night.
I like her but it would be as blatant a “makeup Oscar” as you can get and her lack of success so far this year doesn’t really scream out she has a major chance.
I don’t understand the math where King and Weisz “split the vote” with 50% and 49% of the ballots so that Adams wins with the leftover 1%
Really, I don’t know if we can call Vice “loved” as backlash on it has been severe with talk on how it didn’t deserve so many noms. The big push was Bale’s performance but now it looks like Malek can take it so just can’t see Adams pulling it off.
She’s coming into the Oscars win zero wins while her rivals King and Wiesz have 2 and 1 wins, respectively. I can’t even remember the last time someone won without winning one of the four major precursors. She doesn’t even have critics support to help her case. King has won two of four major precursors, has critics support and her main opponent is already an Oscar and the only place she won was on home turf.
Adams have to repeat Gay Harden, King also have. Gay Harden is always the answer when we are talking about upsets.
But was Gay Harden nominated for something important before the Oscars? If I recall correctly, she came obsolutely out of nowhere, whereas Amy has been nominated for everything
True, but i said that because she was the last one in this category to win an Oscar without winning at least one of the big four (GG, SAG, BAFTA,CC); i think that, if we consider all categories, Brody is the last one to win an Oscar without a win at GG, SAG, BAFTA or CC.
That’s a lot of assumptions based on nothing…
Adams is winning. Not that she deserves it for this particular performance, but she’s on a Best Picture nominee with zero chance of winning the award, and she’s extremely overdue. King is an Oscar newcomer in an underperformer which is most likely to win Score or go emptyhanded without the AMPAS giving a damn about it. But Adams is Oscar royalty already… I am still thinking she wins this one, as in Supporting, surprises are constant.
Jeff Wells updated his BP predictions on GoldDerby yesterday to the following:
1. Green Book
2. Roma
3. The Favourite
4. Black Panther
5. Bohemian Rhapsody
6. Vice
7. BlacKkKlansman
A Star Is Born (2018) isn’t even listed. It looks pretty decent to me (although I’m currently going with Roma), but he sure isn’t following the stats.
I don’t know, Gold Derby’s “expert predictions” have been rather off this year.
Yeah, I don’t know who to trust this year. It’s all over the place.
I think Wells has had GB since the very beginning. He has put all his eggs on that horse. He thinks it will prove some kind of point.
Good.
I hope all the Green Book haters here take their torches and pitchforks and punish Jeff’s strange ass for a few hours today.
Please do. Come back and tell me all about the crucifixion. I’m eager to hear about it.
(Jeff blocked me on Twitter 6 years ago. Long before I got 9 times more followers than he has.)
Would’ve been nice to have these rewarded this year (some will occur, some won’t of course):
BP – Black Panther (Movie of the Year)
Director – Bradley Cooper
Actress – Close
S.Actor – Elliott
S.Actress – Adams
Screenplay – Schrader/Spike Lee
Cinematography/Foreign – Cuaron
Costume – Ruth E. Carter
Score – Mark Shaiman (Mary Poppins Retruns)
Song – Gaga
BP – “The Favourite” (Movie of the Year)
Director – Yorgos Lanthimos
Actress – Colman and Close (tie)
Actor – Mortensen and Dafoe (tie)
Supporting Actor – Ali
Supporting Actress – Weisz
Screenplay – Favourite/Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Cinematography – Robbie Ryan
Foreign – Roma
Song – Mary Poppins
Mine would be:
BP: Roma
Director: Cuaron
Actor: really tough, especially since the best ones are not even nominated (Ethan Hawke, Ben Foster, Joaquin Phoenix)… okay, Dafoe
Actress: Yalitza Aparicio (in absence of Joanna Kulig)
Supp Actor: Adam Driver (huge fan)
Supp Actress: Regina King
Orig. Screenplay: First Reformed
Adap. Screenplay: Beale Street
Cinematography: Cold War
Foreign Language Film: Cold War
Documentary: Free Solo
I was going to complain but then realize it’s who you want to win, not who you think will.
For me:
BP: The Favourite
Director: Lee
Actor: Dafoe
Actress: Close
S Actor: Eliott
S Actress: Adams
Screenplay: Schrader/Lee
Foreign: Roma
SAG did throw the Supporting Actress off by snubbing King and then awarding Blunt. I half wonder that (because SAG voting didn’t end until Friday before awards), some voters didn’t go for Blunt just to show up Academy snubbing her. Had she gotten an Oscar nom, her SAG win would be pushing her as a favorite but as it is, it just muddles this category up even more.
In the midst of this delicate race:
“Oscars Under Fire for Moving Editing, Cinematography Off Air: Del Toro, Cuarón, Lubezki Speak Out”
Full Article: https://www.indiewire.com/2019/02/oscars-del-toro-cuaron-cutting-editing-cinematography-1202043450/
Are these guys smooth operators or what? Now can you see why they are adored and they keep collecting awards? Three amigos are ahead of the game. They know what’s what.
FYI, Hale County This Morning, This Evening is available to watch for free online until February 25th. Watch it.
http://www.pbs.org/independentlens/films/hale-county-this-morning-this-evening/
Okay, thanks. I will watch it.
Awesome – thanks!
Oh my god oh my god , thank you for this info, ol’ buddy.
Very nice. I´m always very intrested in documentary films but even for me living in a large city it´s difficult to catch them. RBG got screened but I missed it, Free Solo will be released in March. Would also love to see Minding the Gap.
The way I see it, three biggest outcomes for Supporting Actress:
A: King ends up taking it after all thanks to new Academy membership overcoming the SAG snub (which would be a sign SAGs aren’t the deal-breaker they once were) and a link to Ali’s win too.
B: Weisz rides the BAFTA momentum and desire to give Favourite some major award although still a tough road.
C: King and Weisz (with an assist from de Travina) split the vote to let Adams win both off sympathy her supposed “Sharp Objects awards sweep” didn’t happen and voters unable to resist her and Close winning in the same night.
I’m still going with King as she has more of a “hometown” advantage than Weisz (who already has an Oscar) and doing well in campaigning. Still, wouldn’t be overly shocked if C were to happen (although it would be as blatant a “makeup Oscar” as you can get). That we can actually debate this category says a lot this year.
It’s still shocking how King was snubbed by SAG and BAFTA because from what I perceive from the industry’s reaction, they adore King. This might be that rare year when snubs from SAG and BAFTA are irrelevant.
I think it was because the movie itself isn’t that loved by the industry, unlike, say, Roma or The Favorite
I heard from SAG voters that they didn’t get tapes of Beale Street out to voters in time and that may have played a factor into things. I agree, amazing which is why I figure King gets Oscar after all.
A few I spoke to did not watch the film because they were waiting on screeners. Still sad to see how snubbed it has been all season. To me it’s a gorgeous piece of filmmaking worthy of a few nods in the top categories.
Yep, heard the same thing which is the only logical excuse for her snub. Oscar voters won’t have that problem, making it more of a priority.
I think second place to King is Amy Adams, not Weisz. The BAFTA win didn’t mean much. I mean TF won the make-up award there when it wasn’t even shortlisted at the Oscars for gahhh’s sake.
I still don’t see how Adams is second place. If she were a factor in this race at all, she would have won the Globe or SAG OR the BAFTA. She lost ALL three. Even when King was not a nominee at SAG, she lost to Blunt (whom I predicted) – and Blunt wasn’t even an Oscar nominee.
There is 0% passion for Adams’ performance in Vice aside her default nomination (which should have gone to Blunt or Margot Robbie OR Claire Foy). Many are just dying to see her win a statue because she’s “overdue”. As I assessed before, if that is the only backing for why you think she is competitive, there’s your answer. She is not a factor this year. Its King or Weisz.
I tend to agree. Course one of those “storylines” now is that SAG/Globe voters weren’t going for her because they figured she’d win for Sharp Objects only for Arquette to upset her there. I agree King has lead with Weisz second but as I noted, if they split the vote, Adams is a likely beneficiary.
Being 2nd place doesn’t mean she’s going to win. She could be distant 2nd. Weisz defeating Adams at BAFTA (home turf, first BAFTA) doesn’t signal anything relating to the Oscars. People tend to overreact after an award show.
That is true. I still remember 2013 when RIva took BAFTA and suddenly it was all “oh, Riva is the total lock now, ignore her snubbed for SAG and such.” And Lawrence gets it.
The very next year, Lawrence wins BAFTA in Supporting and suddenly pushed as Oscar favorite but it goes to Lupita. Or a few years back when Winslet won Supporting Actress, got a push only to lose Oscar to Vikander. BAFTA can be a push but folks aren’t really talking of Coleman beating Close.
Not to mention when Patel won. All of a sudden Ali was vulnerable at the Oscars. Drama queens a lot of us are. 🙂
Riva also had no Globe or SAG nomination. Lawrence had won the year before. Winslet, I admit, was close to winning for Steve Jobs- but I assume due to her recent win and Vikander’s superior performance, it didn’t pan out that way.
I always maintain voters were awarding Vikander as much for Ex Machina as Danish Girl.
I can agree there.
BAFTA has a lot of presence in last-minute wins at the Oscars, including Mark Rylance, Meryl Streep and Marion Cotillard. The Favourite is more then just a “British” movie that BAFTA was embracing for the sake of it being from their home turf. It’s a movie with 10 Oscar nominations and is likely going to win in many technical categories + a major one (I am inches away of saying it sakes Screenplay over Green Book).
But back to Adams, no. She’s not second place. Not at all. If there were a narrative for her to win this year, she would have won something. Because clearly she isn’t winning based on that God awful performance- that again, I have heard NO ONE say is awards worthy. Not one. Quote someone that’s actually credible, saying she’s awardsworthy- and I’ll eat my hat. I doubt it. So again, like Lady Gaga earlier- where I stated I could find NO One to state she was amazing in her role (just good), a narrative must take you to the finish line if your performance doesn’t hold salt. In Gaga’s case, it didn’t- and Close started winning (both with narrative and performance). Adams has won zilch.
Mark Rylance was always the frontrunner to win the Oscars. He didn’t need help winning the BAFTA (though it didn’t hurt).
Yes, BAFTA can be telling IF the winners are non-Brits as in the case of Streep and Cotillard. Weisz being a Brit in a Brit movie that was sweeping doesn’t say anything.
We need to read contexts, not just wins or losses.
Rylance was not always the frontrunner. It’s easy to call it after it’s happened, but I don’t remember seeing many prediction ballots with his name checked off as the winner. If you predicted him, kudos. But I still don’t remember that being the case. Most had Stallone. Sasha even mentioned being in the auditorium and hearing the gasps from the people surrounding her when his name was not called.
Yeah, Stallone had Globe and Critic’s Choice and folks brushing off SAG snub as just a fluke as he had “veteran touch” going for him. So bit shock when Rylance pulled it off.
I called it. Never got on the Stallone train. Stallone was the lone nominee in his movie. Rylance, aside from hitting all precursors, had the critical consensus, and was in a 6 time nominated BP contender. People tend to overlook those factors.
Oh so no wonder you didn’t look that surprised when Patricia Aqrquette opened the envelope. Everyone else was shouting and screaming, but I saw you sitting with your wine- subtly nodding your head. Incredible.
I honestly was not surprised. I felt vindicated b/c people, as I said, tend to overreact with wins. In the case of Stallone with his GG and BFCA wins. You have to look at wins plus contexts, and of course other factors.
Not all wins are based on factors and contexts. Sometimes they just happen. But congrats on getting your pick right. I remember getting Casey Affleck right when everyone at the party I was at thought Denzel had it, and got mad at me for being right because of the “allegations”. I tried explaining to them that my prediction had nothing to do with politics- simply that a) Affleck had more precursors then Washington, and b) I thought his performance was superior. I got a lot of dirty looks that night.
Not saying that wins are based on factors and contexts, but predicting wins you have to look at many factors and contexts of clues.
As for the Affleck win, Denzel was always facing an uphill battle… He had already have TWO Oscars.
Oh I agree. I have been doing that quite a bit this year, and that’s why I think Rachel Weisz might snatch it from Regina King. But I have King all the way.
Went back and forth but think the new Academy membership overcomes the SAG snub so am going with King as well (her great speeches at Globes and CC will also aid her).
I would be VERY surprised if Weisz wins. Less surprised if Adams wins. But yes, it’s King’s for the taking. I’m saying this at the ire of the SAG stats devotees.
So how do you backup Adams as second place when she has no wins up to this point? Other then her overdue status? If your argument is Weisz splits votes with Stone, I don’t buy it. Because she would have split with them Stone at the BAFTAs. I honestly think people just want Amy Adams to win an Oscar, and that’s their only basis for thinking she’s so close. Maybe I’m not seeing something you’re seeing?
Nope, that’s pretty much it as folks thinking Adams overdue (plus how it should be her seventh nomination as should have gotten a nod for Arrival). And would be the only real reason she pulls off an upset, voters thinking “she’s overdue like Close”. Let’s face it, another actress in that role and we wouldn’t be having this discussion.
She should’ve won for Arrival and her snub for a nomination is still atrocious. As a huge fan I will say she should not be winning one for this performance – which I did not even think was nomination worthy. The only performance worthy of anything was Bale – Rockwell was a blip in the film.
Yep. If she pulls an upset, she joins Pacino and Newman on the list of “actors who won for least deserving performance.”
She’s way too brilliant of an actress to have a make-up Oscar. She has time to win one for something worthy.
I’d like to think so but look how long it took Close to get her possible one and sadly, quite a few actors who racked up many noms but not the win. Some voters may think “ah, give it to her now and end it” rather than wait for more worthy.
Ugh sadly I know you’re right! Let’s just go back in time and give her the statue for Arrival and all will be right, haha.
If this were true, Adams would have won the SAG. She lost. TO EMILY BLUNT. Who (as I predicted) would win. And she isn’t even an Oscar nominee. And she won not just because of her double-nominations. But because voters didn’t have much political pressure with King out of the race. So they went with their favorite performance. Again, Adams does NOT have the passion this year for that role. Even Close, who is overdue, also gives a great performance. I would agree Adams would be second HAD she won the SAG. She didn’t. She couldn’t even win the BAFTA. What does that tell you?
Well, BAFTA tells me that obviously British voters were going for British star Weisz (who, amazingly, had never won a BAFTA) in a very British movie so no shock. I do agree, Adams appears out of it (although again, this idea growing SAG voters figured she’d win for Sharp Objects which she didn’t) and am going for King.
However, this race is already providing surprises (see de Travina’s unexpected nomination) and if Weisz rises up more and splits votes with King, Adams can ride that. I don’t expect it to happen but it is a possibility to spark up more excitement in a category that’s been pretty much easiest to call for years.
For Americans, TF is a more divisive film than for the Brits. Though it’s also somewhat divisive for the Brits since it couldn’t manage to win Best Film after sweeping 7 other categories. To vote for either Weisz or Stone, you’d have to like the film, and with a divisive film such as TF, you can’t afford to split votes with a co-star.
Stone was not going to take votes away from Weisz in the UK. Stone had won a BAFTA for lead, Weisz a Brit never won one. So Weisz winning there was a natural. Again, context of a win.
I don’t think Adams is close to winning this year, I just think that she is 2nd place b/c she, unlike Weisz, has never won an Oscar and she, unlike Weisz, would not have to share the Vice-loving votes with a co-star.
Never forget the impact of campaigning as Adams hasn’t done it as much while King is and that will be a big factor. Hell, Allison Janney was literally delivering pizzas to members last year. Sucking up to voters never goes out of style.
I do have to agree. IF (major if) Adams pulls off an upset, it’s going to be one of the more blatant examples of “vote split/makeup award” in Oscars history.
Stop calling her “de Travina” – it’s “de Tavira”! I tried ignoring it the first 10 times, but I have to say something at some point… (Since nobody else will.)
I’m going to say Roma will win best picture now but i want it to go to black panther, green book, blackkklansman or bohemian rhapsody
I still agree that the Academy won’t award a foreign language film. Roma seems a slam dunk, but if Green Book win the WGA, it’s gonna win Best Picture, Original Screenplay and Supporting Actor too. I would bet like this, but don’t know. La La Land and Three Billboards have won the BAFTA in the last 2 years and the Academy was more aligned to the SAG in 2017 and the PGA in 2018… Let’s see what’s going to happen
By the way, it woud be very, very interesting if the Original Screenplay go to Paul Schrader (First Reformed), that would be a shocker during the cerimony, upseting both Roma and Green Book
While I think Roma has a beautiful screenplay, it’s not really a front runner in that category. Green Book and The Favourite are.
If anything BUT GB wins OS than GB isn’t winning BP IMO… INITIALS
Green Book winning for Picture+Ali would definitely be a weird set of categories. But no weirder than Roma winning only Directing + Foreign Language.
BP + BD is a lot more respectable pair than BP + BSA… Especially since ROMA will probably get Cinematography AND FLF as well.
Clearly, but if Roma were to lose Best Picture, and Cinematography (which it could, as seen at the ASC) then it will only win Directing plus Foreign Language film, which is one of the weirdest combinations I can imagine.
I’d disagree, but whatevs.
Yeah, the situation is exactly like 3BB last year, if GB wins OS, it still doesn’t mean it is winning BP (still missing a director nom), but it might be 50/50. If GB loses OS, it’s done. Roma wins.
GB really should hope that The Favourite doesn’t do what Get Out did last year…
The Favourite WILL do that.
That would certainly provide a moment.
I still think it’s the Favourite with Green Book winning IF it is winning BP.
That said … I could see a world where Green Book wins BP and S.Actor – showing how weak a frontrunner it was.
The thing with that notion is … if most voters don’t pick Roma as #1 because they already picked it for FLF … wouldn’t most of them still put it at 2nd or 3rd if they loved it, anyway?
I think Roma is going to win BP and Cold War is going to win Foreign Film. :
We have had some very unconventional BP winners in the past few years — Birdman (which i hated, but it was certainly different from traditional Academy fare), Moonlight, Shape of Water. It’s not all that inconceivable to me that Roma could be another odd or non-traditional winner.
I don’t think Academy voters think logically, so I don’t think they say to themselves, “I’ve rated Roma #1 in BP, therefore I logically must vote for it for FF too”. They are more emotional and irrational than that. And in fact, if i were a voter, I would be that way too. Even if I rated Roma #1 as BP (which I do not), i would just refuse to vote for it for FF too because it is simply overkill — the awards should be shared around.
Clearly Cold War is really liked a lot, earning a Director and Cinematography nomination as well. And for some people, Cold War is actually better than Roma. So for some people, it is actually perfectly logical to vote for Cold War in FF, because they think it is better than Roma, but to vote for Roma in BP because, out of the eight nominees, it is the best (even though it is not better than Cold War).
Of course, one flaw in my argument is that, if Cold War is so loved, why did it not get a BP nomination. My only answer to that is that Roma has simply had so much more buzz, and was released earlier than Cold War, and so it simply has name recognition as well as the massive support of so many critics groups.
Didn’t happen at BAFTA… And they loved Cold War even more (screenplay). Why would it happen at the Oscars?!
Good point. You’re probably right!! I don’t have a good counter-argument. But it’s just a sense i have and I’m sticking with it! 🙂
I don’t really care if i end up wrong — I like surprises and i like making a few predictions that are risky. Nothing to me is duller than everything going the way everyone expects and the stats show. I honestly could not care less if i predict 12/24 or 24/24.
“Nothing to me is duller than everything going the way everyone expects and the stats show. I honestly could not care less if i predict 12/24 or 24/24.”
Nor I, really (which is why I sacrifice so many contests for insurance), though I do care that the stats do well… 🙂
COUPLE OF DEVASTATING OSCAR STATS:
1) Kathryn Bigelow’s actual golden period are her collabs with James Cameron and not with Mark Boal.
2) Recast the role of Oliver with Adam Driver.
So what is winning the 3 Shorts, people?
Doc Shorts
Probably winning: End Game
The spoiler: Life Boat
Animation:
Probably winning: Bao
The spoiler: Weekends (the most literary and profound) or Late Afternoon
(That said, I love Animal Behaviour and could see it turned into a series)
Live Action — This category is such a toss-up
Probably winning: Marguerite (the only one of the five films not abusive to children)
The spoiler: Skin — even though its terrible
Skin was my least fav of the bunch as well, but I also think it might win.
It has accidentally stumbled into a news cycle about blackface so that might help. But it really is the worst of the five — by far.
Bao
I’m hoping Marguerite. I’m thinking Skin.
Animal Behavior, Skin, Period End of Sentance
I never predict Pixar shorts (they lose WAY more often than people think) and I think Period End of Sentance just has a snappy title that jumps out at people.
Live Action is tough. Usually they go for the one with easy uplift, but the category is unbelievably cruel this year. A lot of people are picking Margueite simply because there are no dead kids or hate crimes in it, which makes sense, but it’s also kind of dull and uneventful. I’m going with Skin just because it sort of feels the most “out there” of the bunch and would probably stand out more if it wasn’t in this company.
Yes! We need an article on the shorts!! I think “Bao” will win Animated, but with several of the Live Action shorts being so similar, that category is particularly difficult. I am predicting “Detainment” but does the controversy surrounding it help it or hurt it? “End Game” I think is the favourite for Documentary since it is on Netflix.
I think that “Period. End of Sentence” has a good chance of winning, that´s an important topic.
Animal Behaviour is my favorite but I think Bao is winning.
Animal Behaviour is such a pure joy and the voice work is phenomenal.
Gold Derby experts for BP
Roma 19
Green Book 3
Black Panther 3
The Favourite and BlackKk 0
Editors
Roma 6
BlackKk 3
Green Book, The Favorite and Black Panther 0
Top 24 Users
Roma 20
Green Book 3
A Star is Born (!) 1
Roma a heavy favourite
And my favourite pseudo-meaningful indicator, the betting markets:
Roma 1/4
Green Book 7/2
The Favourite 8/1
others over 20/1.
This should mean that the bookmakers believe that Roma is 14 times as likely to win as Green Book. Again, this isn’t an extremely useful way to measure chances, but still interesting.
I’ve never figured out how to read betting numbers (I dread numbers). So what does 1/4 mean for example?
It means that if you win, you get back your original bet amount, plus 1/4 of it. So in total, 125% of it. If you bet on The Favourite and it wins, you get your original bet plus 8 times your original bet, so 9 times in total. From here, a quick invocation of microeconomics tell us that if we call the probabilities of a thing winning p1 and p2, and the odds previously mentioned are o1 and o2, then p1*o1=p2*o2. So p1/p2=o2/o1. So if Green Book has odds that is 14 times as big as Roma’s, then Roma’s probability to win should be 14 times of that of Green Book. (Looking at all possibilities we could come up with exact percentages, but those odds are so high that they’re mostly irrelevant.)
Ah ok thanks!!! 🙂
I put my bet on Green Book when it was 12-1
I bought BKKK when the odds were good, terrible decision…
Partly influenced by narrative from this site, obviously ๑乛◡乛๑
Decisions should never be evaluated ex post. I still think it was a good buy at 22/1 pre-SAG.
Heavier than LLL?
Not sure as the “experts” have been a bit off on picks already for Globes, CC and SAGs.
How bizarre this race has turned out for A Star is born. It will win more Grammies than Oscars.
Well it is an original music film so it’s not TOO crazy… Now if VICE won more Grammys than Oscars… THAT’D BE BIZARRE!
Grammy-winner Bradley Cooper for his first shot in singing
Meanwhile, the following musicians have never won a Grammy (a competitive one, not a lifetime achievement one): Jimi Hendrix, Bob Marley, The Who, Velvet Underground, Iggy Pop, Oasis, Gina N’ Roses, Morissey, KISS, The Strokes and Tupac
He crashed the Grammy’s like Three 6 Mafia did the Oscars
I’m baffled by people still predicting First Man to win anything. It’s not happening. Why bet on a dead horse? No way this flop is winning Sound categories over Bohemian and ASIB. As for Visual Effects this one clearly belongs to Avengers.
I think it’s Bohemian Rhapsody in one and A Quiet Place in the other… A Quiet Place depends sooooo much on its sound design that it is difficult to deny it.
I wouldn’t predict First Man even if someone held a gun to my head.
It’s too bad because FM does deserve more recognition… But I have a feeling you’re right.
It’s still the loudest movie, which they usually award in Sound Editing. Not to mention how central and brilliant the sounds are in certain scenes. I think I’ll be predicting A Quiet Place, but I don’t think it’s impossible for First Man to just rise as the “classic Sound winner”.
If it wins anything it’ll be in the sound categories… Unless it magically pulls an EX MACHINA in VFX.
It’s not winning Sound Mixing. BR will take that. Maybe it still has a chance in Sound Editing but I won’t predict it anymore after BAFTA. And neither are you.
Sadly, I agree. I think First Man will lose to movies like AQP, Bohemian and Infinity War in most of its categories. BAFTA loved it more than AMPAS, and it STILL didn’t win over there.
It does have a shot in visual effects. That almost always goes to the most “Best Picture” like nominee even when there are other more expensive blockbusters of the super hero/Star Wars/Transformers variety in the mix.
Blackkklansman and Black Panther won at the Grammys for their score. Could one of them beat Beale Street at the Oscars?
The Grammys have a weird eligiblity window which definitely rendered some contenders ineligible for this year’s ceremony. I’m not quite sure which ones, but Black Panther didn’t beat any Oscar nominee this year. Blanchard winning in the Composition category though could signal a spoiler, but overall I think everyhing is possible, even the impossible.
BlacKkKlansman is on the verge of upsetting at every single nom it has. Most likely it’ll be emptyhanded, but I wouldn’t be shocked either it for going emptyhanded or even winning every single nom it has. It won’t, though, I don’t count it to win anything, not even adapted.
If there’s that much support for it to possibly win most of its categories, but actually NOT win any of them … in theory, wouldn’t it still be loved enough to be on lots of 1s, 2s and 3s on ballots for BP? Picking BP is making me go crazy.
that’s why this year is so fascinating. Every one of the 8 nominees still has powerful reasons to prevail
It’s highly possible, it’s one way to award Black Panther. Why give it to a movie that doesn’t have a BP nomination?
Well Black Panther and Beale Street were running neck and neck at the Black Reel Awards….however If Beale Street Could Talk won for Outstanding Score. Although according to the Oscar stats on the right side of the home page, If Beale Street Could talk got one nomination for Best Score and that was at BFCA’s Critic’s Choice Awards, and Beal Street/Black Panther lost to First Man.
So it could either be Black Panther, Mary Poppins Returns, or Isle of Dogs.
I think Black Panther takes Score pretty easily. A chance for AMPAS to give it something. Best Picture nominee. Won’t win Song. etc
I think it is actually likely. The Beale St. score is startling, hugely effective, and original, but it is also offbeat and subtle and quiet. My sense is that Best Score TENDS to go to louder more orchestral and traditional scores. Also, Beale Street did okay in the nominations but certainly has not been massively embraced by the Academy.
Generally speaking, Academy voters don’t go for small and subtle in any categories. Costumes go to the biggest most elaborate costumes. Production Design goes to the biggest splashiest sets. Editing goes to the film with lots and lots of editing. Of course, there are exceptions, but that is the general trend.
Beale St. may win in a kind of “Social Network” offbeat exception (though it had the name recognition, for at least SOME voters, of Trent Reznor), but i think it is not likely.
[I’m going to post this in several places, as per the usual procedure:]
I once again invite all of the good folks willing to share their picks to post their rankings for this traditional BP voting simulation I’ve done pretty much every year since 2011, and, hopefully, help us all better understand how this year’s mad Best Picture race might shape up, as well as how the preferential ballot is likely to affect it. I will, as always, post detailed, round-by-round descriptions of how the count went, and so on, at the end… Many thanks to all of those who have participated in these simulations in past years, as well as to all of those who are about to, perhaps, take part in them for the first time this year!
Sometimes these are mostly indicative of the internet’s favorites, but sometimes they can also be very telling for what will actually happen at the Oscars. (Like in 2015 and 2017, when the winners were the same for both.) The four-year streak of the movie that (according to most accounts) came in second place at the Oscars each year finishing in exactly second place in this simulation ended last year, but only sort of, as Three Billboards was eliminated in third place despite being TIED with the second place finisher in that round. (Call Me By Your Name only went through after I checked to see which of the two would have lost the “final” by a larger margin. I have no idea what the Academy does in these situations – when there is a tie for precisely second place. They probably count first place votes, like they do when there is a tie for first place.) So, in any case, one can say the Oscar Best Picture “loser” has always at least tied for second place (and never come in first) in this simulation over the last five years. Therefore, it will be very interesting, at least for myself, to see what finishes in that fateful position this year…
8th Annual Best Picture Preferential Ballot Simulation:
So, please rank the eight Best Picture nominees this year, according to how much (or how little) you would like to see each of them win the Oscar! In other words, just as if you were a voting Academy member (except, don’t try to think like one of them would, but rather rank them according to your own tastes and wishes, of course)!
I would say that, ideally, a voter should have seen everything this year, or at least made an effort to do so (*cough* Roma – I know some people have had serious trouble getting through that… I didn’t, personally, though I also didn’t love it.), since most of the voters probably will have as well and, more importantly, any of the eight can be argued to have a shot at winning Best Picture. (Even though I, personally, believe only five or six of them, at most, can. And many people by now think it’s down to only two…)
I plan to keep voting open until Saturday or Sunday. I might also decide to close voting and calculate the results on Friday. We’ll see – I’ll give due notice either way, as usual.
It appears I won’t be able to vote myself this year, due to not having seen The Favourite (which is too likely to rank high for me). However, here’s my mother’s ballot (I asked her to rank these after she saw the last one, shortly after the nominations announcement, because I knew she might forget how she felt about at least some of them afterwards – prescription medication, long story -, so I felt that would probably be more relevant than having her rank them now):
1. Green Book
2. A Star is Born
3. Vice
4. Bohemian Rhapsody
5. BlacKkKlansman
6. Black Panther
7. The Favourite
8. Roma
For the record, my own ranking would be something like: 1. A Star is Born 2. Vice 3. Green Book 4. BlacKkKlansman 5. Roma 6. Bohemian Rhapsody 7. Black Panther.
The roll of honor:
2011 The Social Network —– details not saved (second place was Black Swan, I believe)
2012 – not held –
2013 Zero Dark Thirty ——— 37-24 over Silver Linings Playbook
2014 Her ————————– 33-33 tied with Gravity, won 19-18 on total first place votes
2015 Birdman ——————– 62-61 over Boyhood
2016 Mad Max: Fury Road — 51-37 over The Revenant
2017 Moonlight —————— 41-32 over La La Land
2018 Phantom Thread ——— 39-33 over Call Me By Your Name
Hey Claudiu, great idea – here comes my ranking:
1. Roma
2. Green Book
3. The Favourite
4. BlackKklansman
6. A Star is born
7. Black Panther
(haven´t seen Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody)
1. The Favourite
2. Roma
3. A Star is born
4. BlackKklasman
5. Black Panther
6.Bohemian Rhapsody
7.Green Book
8. Vice
Thanks! Those aren’t winning this simulation anyway, so I will probably count your ballot.
But only probably… 😉
Let’s say almost definitely! 🙂
1. Vice
2. A Star is Born
3. Roma
4. BlacKkKlansman
5. The Favourite
6. Black Panther
7. Green Book
8. Bohemian Rhapsody
1. The Favourite
2. Roma
3. Vice
4. BlacKkKlansman
5. Green Book
6. A Star is Born
7. Bohemian Rhapsody
8. Black Panther
1. The Favourite
2. Roma
3. Green Book
4. BlacKkKlansman
5. Vice
6. Black Panther
7. A Star Is Born
8. Bohemian Rhapsody
1. BlacKkKlansman
2. The Favourite
3. Vice
4. Bohemian Rhapsody
5 Green Book
6. Black Panther
7. A Star Is Born
8. Roma
1 Blackkklansman
2 Roma
3 The Favourite
4 Green Book
5 Bohemian Rhapsody
6 A Star is Born
7 Black Panther
8 Vice
1. Roma
2. The Favourite
3. BlacKkKlansman
4. Black Panther
5. A Star is Born
6. Bohemian Rhapsody
7. Vice
8. Green Book
My ballot is almost your mother’s, flipped 🙂
🙂
1. The Favourite
2. Roma
3. Green Book
4. Black Panther
5. Bohemian Rhapsody
6. BlacKkKlansman
7. A Star is Born
8. Vice
1. Roma
2. The Favourite
3. A Star is Born
4. BlacKkKlansman
5. Black Panther
6. Green Book
7. Bohemian Rhapsody
8. Vice
1. The Favourite
2. Roma
3. BlacKkKlansman
4. A Star Is Born
5. Black Panther
6. Green Book
7. Bohemian Rhapsody
8. Vice
1 Roma
2 The Favourite
3 BlacKkKlansman
4 Green Book
5 Black Panther
6 A Star is Born
7 Bohemian Rhapsody
8 Vice
Out of the whopping 4 I’ve been able to see…
1. BKKKM
2. ROMA
3. VICE
4. BLACK PANTHER
Well of course to you I regard as privledge to state my preferred rankings based on what nominatedfor best picture as this :
1. Black panther
2. The green book
3. Blackkklansman
4. Bohemian Rhapsody
5. The favourite
6. A star is born
7. Vice
8. Roma
But Iike to say my list for who I prefer the showdown to be between that won’t be on Oscar night but definitely should be is:
1. Black panther
2. Mary Poppins returns
3. First man
4. Stan and ollie
5. Avengers infinity war ( when “endgame” is released then potentially should be top rankings next years Oscars)
6. On the basis of sex
7. Bohemian rhapsody
8. The green book
9. Blackkklansman
10. The favourite
Mark my words if my second category of listings and even ten nominations best picture rather than random hodge podge each year last few years you have massive ratings spike. Instead yet again I predict for films type that made cut ratings will plummet or stagnate – again . as for bafta well they antiquated outdated and increasingly unreliable indicator for best PIC Sasha is right there if late.
Thanks for the vote! 🙂
Love that you do this!
1. Roma
2. The Favourite
3. A Star is Born
4. Black Panther
5. Vice
6. Blackkklansman
7. Green Book
8. Bohemian Rhapsody
Thanks! I’m like the Brits – and Tevye. 🙂 I like tradition.
1. The Favourite
2. Roma
3. A Star is Born
4. Blackkklansman
5. Black Panther
6. Vice
7. Bohemian Rhapsody
8. Green Book
I would rank the last three way below the top five.
1. Blackkklansman
2. The Favourite
3. Green Book
4. A Star is Born
5. Roma
6. Bohemian Rhapsody
7. Black Panther
8. Vice
1. Roma
2. The Favourite
3. A Star is Born
4. Green Book
5. Bohemian Rhapsody
6. Vice
7. Black Panther
8. Blackkklansman
1. Roma
2. The Favorite
3. A Star Is Born
4. Green Book
5. Black Panther
6. BlacKKKlansman
7. Bohemian Rhapsody
8. Vice
1. Roma
2. The Favourite
3. A Star Is Born
4. Black Panther
5. BlacKkKlansman
6. Vice
7. Green Book
8. Bohemian Rhapsody
1. The Favourite
2. BlackKklansman
3. Roma
4. Green Book
5. A Star is Born
6. Bohemian Rhapsody
7. Black Panther
8. Vice
My BP ranking for 2019:
1) “Roma”
2) “Black Panther”
3) “Blackkkansman”
4) “The Favourite”
then a big gap ….
5) ASIB
then a huge chasm …..
6) “Vice”
7) “Green Book”
8) “Bohemian Rhapsody”
1. Roma
2. The Favourite
3. A Star is Born
4. Bohemian Rhapsody
5. BlacKkKlansman
6. Green Book
7. Vice
8. Black Panther
Best Actor: Bradley Cooper, Best Actress: Glenn Close or Olivia Coleman, Best Supporting Actress: Regina King, Best Supporting Actor: Richard E. Grant, Best Picture: Green Book, Best Director: Spike Lee
CURRENT FINAL PREDICTIONS
My last set will be released after the WGA. I am pondering The Favourite. I do believe it could rack up some major hardware Oscar Sunday. It is truly mind blowing with how I keep going back and forth in my head with some of these categories. Though the main 8 seem sealed to me.
My final analysis will have more in-depth commentary. I do enjoy writing them out, just been a busy week for me. Great article as usual Sasha!
__________________________________
BEST PICTURE: Green Book (alt. Roma)
BEST DIRECTOR: Alfonso Cuaron (alt. Spike Lee)
BEST ACTOR: Rami Malek (alt. Christian Bale)
BEST ACTRESS: Glenn Close (alt. Olivia Colman)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Mahershala Ali (alt. Nobody)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Regina King (alt. Rachel Weisz)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: BlackKklansman (alt. Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Green Book (alt. The Favourite)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: The Favourite
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: The Favourite
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: The Favourite
BEST MAKEUP: Vice
BEST FILM EDITING: The Favourite
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Isle of Dogs, Alexandre Deslplat
BEST SONG: “Shallow”, A Star is Born
BEST SOUND MIXING: Bohemian Rhapsody
BEST SOUND EDITING: Black Panther
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: First Man
BEST FOREIGN FILM: Roma
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Spider-Man
Solid predictions there. Not sure about Cinematography though…I think this is between Cuaron and Zal
Oh trust me, I’m not sure about 5-6 of these. I keep thinking Cold War/Roma will split ala “black and white brilliance”. The Favourite has such quirky camera angles that I believe might give it the edge. Also it’s swift cuts and masterful playing with the camera/story make me think it might upset in Editing, even though that traditionally goes to more technical marvels (ala First Man). Many have Vice predicted, but I feel a cold draft coming from that movie and I feel it even could get shut out (Makeup seems like it’s only triumph, though even here – we could see an alternative).
Score and Film Editing- where do I begin? I just have no idea. If First Man had been cited in the former race, would it be on most people’s predictions for a win? I am betting yes. Without it, Beale Street seems to be the flavor of palate. But the movie is so so underrated- that Regina King aside, I don’t think it’s going to do much Oscar night. I am weary of even keeping King in my predictions as Weisz’s movie and performance are much more in the spotlight now. But I have been battling for King since that dream I had, and I won’t back down.
The Favourite could also spoil in Original Screenplay, and if it does- Green Book might be going home with just Supporting Actor, leaving Roma with Best Picture. But the preferential ballot keeps me from swaying that direction on top of the foreign language red check mark that I wish didn’t have to be a deciding factor.
I am glad BlackKklansman FINALLY won something (BAFTA writing); however, no Scripter’s nod? Me thinks it could go to Can You Ever Forgive Me? Watch out for that.
And the blessed Sound categories. Will it be name checks for Black Panther? Will it be Star is Born/BR musical love? Or will First Man sneak in? Up in the air.
I’m extremely confident The Favourite will win screenplay, honestly, almost no matter what happens at the WGA, and with BP.
Pretty solid as I agree King still in lead although still up in the air with SAG omission (and possibility of Adams or de Travina taking advantage of vote split). Otherwise, looks good.
Scenarios in order of likelyhood
1) Green Book wins Picture, Original Screenplay and Supporting Actor (maybe Film Editing), Roma wins Director and Foreign Film (maybe Cinematography and something else).
2) Roma wins Picture, Director, Cinematography (maybe Foreign Film, maybe Actress, maybe Supporting Actress…)
3) Bohemian Rhapsody wins Picture, Actor, Sound (1 or 2) and Film Editing. Roma takes Director, Green Book takes Original Screenplay.
4) BlacKkKlansman wins Picture and Adapted (maybe Film Editing, maybe Director)
5) The Favourite wins Picture, Original Screenplay and some techs.
6) Black Panther wins Picture, Costume, Production Design (maybe somethinge else)
7) A Star is Born wins Picture, Adapted, Song
8) Vice (odd, isn’t it?) wins Picture, Supporting Actress, Original, Make up and Film Editing. The problem is, aside from Make Up and Film Editing, it’s not a strong contender anywhere else, kind of “nom is enough” thing, that’s why it is last.
what I would LIKE to happen…
Picture – BlacKkKlansman
Director – Spike Lee
Actor – Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody or Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Actress – Glenn Close, The Wife or Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Supporting Actor – Richard E. Grant, Can you ever forgive me?
Supporting Actress – Amy Adams, Vice (basically because how overdue she is)
Original Screenplay – The Favourite or First Reformed
Adapted Screenplay – BlacKkKlansman
Score – BlacKkKlansman or Isle of Dogs
Song – abstain. Shallow is nice but I don’t think it’s THAT good. Maybe the Diane Warren song as she’s so overdue.
Production Design – Black Panther
Costume – Black Panther
Film Editing – BlacKkKlansman
Cinematography – Roma or Cold War
Sound Mixing – Bohemian Rhapsody
Sound Editing – A Quiet Place
Visual Effects – Avengers: Infinity War
Make Up – Border
Foreign Film – anything but Roma, a surprise.
Animated – The Incredibles 2 or Isle of Dogs
Willem Dafoe for actor, Richard Grant for supporting actor, BkkkM for BP, BD, Adaptation and Editing, other song but Shallow, First Reformed for Original Screenplay… THAT IT WOULD BE PERFECT!!
=D
I tear up every time I see how Richard E. Grant keeps losing to Ali. Ali was good in Green Book but for me he was not so great that he is undeniable for a second win. Grant was great in CYEFH?
Switch Animated to SPIDER-MAN and I’ll gladly take this. BKKKM for the win!
I did not like SMItS that much. Big Miller & Lord fan, but they basically rehashed the Lego Batman Movie, with flashy visuals and an exasperating abuse of the “ex-machina” that derailed the whole experience to me. “Isle of Dogs” and specially “The Incredibles 2” deserve the Oscar waaaaay more.
Picture – BlacKkKlansman?????
Has it ever Green Book and Roma?
I saw them all
Has BlacKkKlansmen ever won Best Picture award before?
a film like it, yes. “In the Heat of the Night”
In Cannes it won the 2nd most important award. Point being, it’s always high in the precursors and showing almost everywhere. That’s why it has an edge on a preferential ballot, and isn’t completely ruled out, logically.
That being said, I think it will end emptyhanded.
Excellent weighting. I think you’ve read the Academy’s mind, and the moment, exactly right. (I happen to like scenario 1.)
“1) Green Book wins Picture”
So you feel like you’ve not had BP wrong enough this season. 🙂 You want to get it wrong one final time… (As will I, perhaps.) Will you change this if Roma wins the WGA?
Claudiu, I don’t know if you just don’t understand how I write, or you just want to ignore it.
I said – since June – that “BlacKkKlansman” was the most likely logical winner of the race, for a number of reasons. And that if it won, most likely it would be Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay and Film Editing in the pack.
That is NEVER meaning it WILL. I analyze, I don’t predict. Got no crystal ball, nor pretend I have.
Why “BKKKM” is STILL the most logical winner of this Oscar season (even if it won’t).
1) Crowdpleaser
2) Perfectly crafted
3) One of the best films of an overdue master
4) Never a black director won Direction
5) If they give it to Lee, Picture SHOULD go in the pack, so it does not seem like a compassion vote.
6) It’s deep and entertaining and engaging and captures the zeitgeist
7) It’s an anti-Trump statement most Hollywood can get behind
8) Both critics and audiences loved it
9) Avoided the curse of the year-long frontrunner
10) (in fall, it was added): consistently showing everywhere in key precursors
11) Its main competition, Roma, is Foreign Language and Netflix
12) The year long frontrunner, A Star is Born, has tanked in precursors to the point of looking like an extreme longshot at every category but in Song
13) Green Book has gone through a huge backlash
14) The Favourite has underperformed everywhere but at BAFTA and it couldn’t win that one, its natural win
15) Bohemian Rhapsody is a huge crowdpleaser, but the Directing and Screenplay omissions make it an unclear bet
16) Black Panther has only SAG to back it. It couldn’t even manage a Film Editing nom
17) Vice seems dead, for unexplainable reasons. It has key nominations everywhere (Editing, Screenplay, Directing, Acting) but somehow only looks a sure bet at Make Up, and 2nd or 3rd guess everywhere else (specially after losing at the Eddies
I still go with my feeling that:
Picture: Green Book
Director: Cuarón
Actor: Malek
Actress: Close
S. Actor: Ali
S. Actress: Adams (yes, not King)
Original: Green Book
Adapted: A Star is Born
Foreign: Roma
Animated: Spider-man: into the Spiderverse
Song: Shallow, A Star is Born
Score: If Beale Street could Talk
Film Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody
Cinematography: Roma
Costume: The Favourite
Production Design: Black Panther
Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsodty
Sound Editing: A Quiet Place
Visual Effects: Avengers: Infinity War
Make Up: Vice
… but I wouldn’t be in shock, if BKKKM pulls out a Spotlight (Picture+Screenplay). Not “predicting” it. BKKKM most likely will go emptyhanded
I’m sorry but saying “X is the most logical winner” is a prediction! Whether you want it to be or not. It might not be an OFFICIAL prediction, but it’s still a prediction.
no, it’s not a prediction. For example, with everything into consideration no one ever thought anything that Schindler’s List or Saving Private Ryan were the most logical winners of their year, but while in the first case, it happened, many some predicted Shakespeare in Love to win, because of Miramax’s campaigning and power. BlacKkKlansman was probably the film in the running that could easily appeal to most voters, enough, to win Best Picture in a preferential ballot, in 2018. That doesn’t mean Green Book or Roma are still my predictions, if you force me to make one, or that I consider that Bohemian Rhapsody has a better shot at this point (specially after the Globes).
But also, for example, I think BKKKM is over The Favourite, Vice, Black Panther and A Star is Born right now for the Best Picture win. And that the only film I will be kind of surprised, if it won, is “Vice”.
We clearly have a very different definition of ‘prediction’. 🙂 We’ll have to agree to disagree, I guess. But I can’t promise to take your analysis as non-predictions in the future, either. To me, that’s just what it is. Maybe if you add a disclaimer every single time, saying these are just opinions, but no predictions, I could do it. But of course that would be weird.
I NEVER predict.
Like I said, different definitions. Other people, myself included, would say you ALWAYS predict, just like the rest of us… 🙂
no. I’m old and experienced enough to know that things in the background, which I am not aware of, may change the logical course of the events. I analyze with the elements at my disposition, and I thought BKKKM was the logical winner for a huge combo of reasons and the Zeitgeist. Plus, BKKKM could be defined as the middle point between two important Best Picture winners: “In the Heat of the Night” and “The Departed”.
Interesting approach. (I’m not being sarcastic. It’s quite original.)
I’m not to blame for your beliefs, Claudiu. I clearly tell you I am NOT predicting anything (well, in contests, I “bet”) so it is up to you, to say that, but it’s neither my problem, nor anything I want to waste a single second of my time, to deal with, anymore. Cheers.
“I’m not to blame for your beliefs, Claudiu.”
Nor did I claim you were. 🙂 And I’m sorry if I’ve wasted your time, but I never forced you to continue the conversation, so I feel like I’m not really to blame there, either.
Will the most powerful guild please stand up? PGA, you can stay seated.
WGA, though…
Bad news on the 4 categories that will be cut from the broadcast. Cinematography, Editing, Live Action Short, Makeup/Hairstyling. Sheez.
Combine the sound categories and put the documentaries and shorts on the commercial break grid.
Now I really don’t care if I work on Oscar Sunday.
And scrap Best Song. Leave that for the Grammys. I find it ridiculous that Sam Smith is an Oscar winner when he has made no contribution to the actual craft of filmmaking.
It’s to the Oscars what Best Liner Notes are to the Grammys.
I like the song category, but it is a little odd that it exists outside of original musicals.
I just don’t like token “end title songs” dominating it for so long. When the song is actually used in the film (either as a musical number, a performed song like Shallow, or even just instead of a score (like Call Me By Your Name)) that’s fine, but end title songs are not really parts of the film and I think shouldn’t be eligible.
I’d be cool with that stipulation… They should actually affect the film itself and not just get tacked on.
I say scrap “Best Song” and make sound one category.
Cinematography and Editing should be left on the broadcast 🙁
The ones the would need to be out would be the live action short, and animation short. Out of the people involved in all the other categories, those people are truly there for the love of the craft and when they make their projects, an Oscar is probably the last thing on their mind.
And yes, combine the sounds categories.
It’s just live action short being omitted. They’re foolish to cut out any awards, but would be extra foolish to omit the animated short award given it’ll likely go to Bao and that will easily create one of the better wins of the night.
BARF… At least they’ll be streaming them during the commercials.
They should only omit or move or whatever the three shorts categories and leave the techs alone.
Bad news on the 4 categories that will be cut from the broadcast. Cinematography, Editing, Live Action Short, Makeup/Hairstyling. Sheez.
Combine the sound categories and put the documentaries and shorts on the commercial break grid.
With any luck, this latest round of kickback will have them changing their tune by morning.
I really hope some legendary DP’s speak out. Just a statement by someone like Deakins or Storaro saying this is an insult to their craft is enough to right this wrong, I think.
And some directors too – Scorsese and Spielberg would be the ticket.
Yeah, directors and actors. Unfortunately DP’s have zero word.
Del Toro has already offered his thoughts I see.
Carter baizen, I hope the Oscars this year are still the oscars and not the death of them. Black panther should win the Oscars not some streaming Service movie.
[And this other stuff:]
I’ve thought things through and I now know what I’m going to have to do for my official prediction. It’s a little complicated, but here it is: I’ve come up with three different new logical interpretations of the stats situation I can go with, which are similar (but not quite identical – which will be evident from the list below) and not dependent in any way on my having to predict the WGA winner when something very strong in screenplay is ineligible (as is the case this year with The Favourite), and all of which would maintain my system’s 100% accuracy for the PGA era up to this point. (Yes, including that whole mess last year.) I suppose I’ll have to decide which of them to go with, the old one or one of the three new ones. Here’s what could happen, based on said decision, as well as the various WGA results possible (in the relevant category):
OLD SYSTEM (dependent on predicting the WGA winner correctly):
– Roma wins WGA – official BP prediction: The Favourite
– Green Book wins WGA – official BP prediction: The Favourite
– Vice wins WGA – official BP prediction: The Favourite
– Eighth Grade or A Quiet Place win the WGA – official BP prediction: The Favourite
(All of this, UNLESS it went on to lose the Original Screenplay Oscar, at which point my prediction would change, live, to the winner of the WGA, as long as it was Roma, Vice or Green Book. If it was one of the other two, well, then my head would probably explode, or something…)
NEW SYSTEM – VERSION 1:
– Roma wins WGA – official BP prediction: Roma
– Green Book wins WGA – official BP prediction: The Favourite
– Vice wins WGA – official BP prediction: Vice
– Eighth Grade or A Quiet Place win the WGA – official BP prediction: The Favourite
(Irrespective of what happens to the Original Screenplay Oscar.)
NEW SYSTEM – VERSION 2:
– Roma wins WGA – official BP prediction: Roma
– Green Book wins WGA – official BP prediction: Green Book
– Vice wins WGA – official BP prediction: Vice
– Eighth Grade or A Quiet Place win the WGA – official BP prediction: The Favourite
(Same comment.)
NEW SYSTEM – VERSION 3:
– Roma wins WGA – official BP prediction: Roma
– Green Book wins WGA – official BP prediction: Green Book
– Vice wins WGA – official BP prediction: Vice
– Eighth Grade or A Quiet Place win the WGA – official BP prediction: Vice*
(Ditto.)
Version 2 above makes the most sense to me right now, logically speaking, and may well be the one I end up choosing. Version 1 is also a strong possibility. Final decision pending. To sum up, if Roma wins the WGA, my official prediction will be either Roma or The Favourite, if Green Book wins it, my official prediction will be either Green Book or The Favourite, and if Vice or Eighth Grade or A Quiet Place win it, my official prediction will be either Vice or The Favourite – or, see below!
In addition to all of this, my making OTHER (bigger) tweaks to my system could result in either BlacKkKlansman (especially) or A Star is Born being its prediction, instead, possibly even in a lot of scenarios… but I’m not going to do that – *UNLESS (this is scenario 5, I guess), perhaps, Eighth Grade or A Quiet Place win the WGA for original and BlacKkKlansman, specifically, wins it for adapted. (In which case only a slight tweak, inconsequential to the system’s predictions for other years in the PGA era, would, in fact, make BlacKkKlansman the predicted winner. Which I’m not sure is something I want to neglect. So I guess BlacKkKlansman is the fifth movie I MIGHT end up predicting, if that very specific and unlikely scenario came to pass. I will not be predicting A Star is Born or the other two.) Mostly, though, what I’m saying here is if those two did win, it would probably ALSO only mean a rethinking of my system would be necessary (as would many of the cases discussed above), not that it would fail beyond hope. It would just be a more drastic set of changes that would be required (for most scenarios still possible), I imagine. So, in a way, those, too, remain stats-valid winners, as far as I’m concerned. Only Black Panther or Bohemian Rhapsody winning would truly put my whole method under question, and perhaps make it impossible for me to come up with any unitary interpretation of the stats that could still predict all 30 PGA era winners. (It’ll be 30 after this year.)
This madness is only happening because the stats situation is so unclear and non-standard, obviously. 🙂 In pretty much any other year I would have had a single, clear and unquestionable favorite, regardless of the version of my system I went with. I wouldn’t have had to come up with new interpretations at all, in fact, because my old version would have provided a clear and logical answer.
I’m purposely not going into details about what each of the systems of interpretation consists of, exactly. As per the policy. (The difference between versions 1, 2 and 3 is, basically, whether I, in addition to doing one other thing involving elimination rules, deduct 0, 0.5 or 1 full point from the tallies of the movies ineligible for the WGA, to account for said ineligibility. Since that isn’t the same as losing, but it’s also not the same as winning. All of those make sense, logically, each in its own way. Therein lies the problem. There’s no single, clear solution, that makes sense more than the other possible – and logical – solutions. Any of them could be the right answer. Provided such an answer exists at all, within the confines of the stats-only method. This is the reason I wouldn’t mind it if any of the possible winners in each scenario would prevail, this year. It would just mean I would have to choose that interpretation – or one of the ones under which they would come out on top, if more than one – for future years. Not that my system will have failed. That would only be the case if a movie would win other than those mentioned for each possible WGA/Oscar Original Screenplay outcome. In that sense, this is a less stressful year for me than the last one, stats-wise, as more than one outcome is acceptable, and I know what I would need to do in each case. This is why I’ve been discussing these things more than I’d originally planned on doing. Because it became more or less inevitable after the Oscar nominations that this would be the kind of situation we would end up in…)
I will, of course, give my final official prediction (according to my decision as to which system to go with) once the WGA has announced its winners. I will also, at that time (or shortly thereafter), decide on what my unofficial, intuitive prediction will be. Roma is a strong favorite to be my pick there, regardless of what my official prediction ends up being. If it wins the WGA (which I believe it’s at least a slight favorite to do), it’s almost a lock to be my unofficial prediction. If it loses, it’s somewhat less clear what I’ll go with. It’ll be a tough decision. I suppose my provisional (and unofficial) prediction for Best Picture, now, after BAFTA, is Roma. In case anybody’s wondering.
Featured!
(hiya Claudiu, I sent you a brief email last night. Did you see it? Not sure I have your current email addy.)
Thanks! Got it and replied, in the meantime. (I was sleeping when you wrote, most likely – I sleep weird hours sometimes.)
[Guess I should maybe post these again:]
Notes on the BAFTA’s:
– The Favourite becomes the first movie ever to win 7 or more BAFTA’s but not also Best Film! Roma is the second movie to win Best Film at BAFTA with no acting nominations, at least since 1969. Of course, The Favourite had the DGA snub, and winners without that are also not common since 1992 (only two). The stat Roma had to beat seemed stronger, but I guess when stats clash this season the less obvious ones are destined to prevail… So, beware, john smith: maybe the same thing will happen at the Oscars, with the seemingly weaker editing stat, and that’s why Roma will lose! 🙂
– Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid (1969) won 9 BAFTA’s, including film, director and screenplay, but lost BP at the Oscars. It won 4 Oscars. (Before BAFTA.)
– The Killing Fields (1984) won 8 BAFTA’s, including film and screenplay, but lost BP. It won 3 Oscars. (Before BAFTA.)
– Cabaret (1972) won 7 BAFTA’s, including film and director, but lost BP. It won 8 Oscars. (Before BAFTA.)
– A Man for All Seasons (1966; 7), Midnight Cowboy (1969; 6, tied with Oh! What a Lovely War, 1969), One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest (1975; 6), Schindler’s List (1993; 7), The English Patient (1996; 6), American Beauty (1999; 6), Slumdog Millionaire (2008; 7), The Hurt Locker (2008; 6), The King’s Speech (2010; 7), The Artist (2011; 7) and Gravity (2013; 6) are the only other movies with at least 6 BAFTA wins – all except Gravity won both BAFTA Best Film and the Oscar for Best Picture. And, of course, Oh! What a Lovely War, but the other movie with six wins that year did win Best Film and the Oscar, and both couldn’t, so… 3 Oscar wins is the worst any of these movies has done, except for the same Oh! What a Lovely War, which got 0 Oscar nominations. (And that had 6 BAFTA wins, not 7, like The Favourite. Screenplay, production design and costume design should be The Favourite’s most likely three. Can it get anything beyond those?!)
– 0/1/2 BAFTA wins are all quite common for BP winners. (The Departed and Moonlight are the ones with 0. Spotlight, Birdman and, I think, others, had 1…) So, this is not a problem for Green Book or any other movie in the race.
– movies that won BP without either BFCA Best Picture, DGA or BAFTA Best Film wins: Moonlight (GG drama + WGA; 0 BAFTA’s), Crash (SAG+WGA+ACE; 2 BAFTA’s) and Braveheart (WGA+ACE; 3 BAFTA’s)
– movies that won all three (BFCA Best Picture, DGA and BAFTA Best Film), yet failed to win BP: Brokeback Mountain (2005) and La La Land (2016) – the other 6 all won BP.
– 17/24 movies to have won a BAFTA for screenplay and been nominated for the Golden Globe for the same have won either the WGA or the Oscar for screenplay, since 2000. (BAFTA date change.) 5 of the other 7 lost the Oscar or WGA (if eligible) to Globe or Critics Choice screenplay winners. Only Milk (2008) and The Pianist (2002) won the Oscar without first winning either the Critics Choice, Globe, BAFTA or WGA for screenplay. [This is all relevant in various ways, but I’m too tired at the moment to point out what those are. I barely managed to conjure up the energy to make this post. Didn’t sleep too much last night – excitement.]
– my 100% all-time record of calling stuff not winning endures, for now, as Bale indeed did not win Best Actor at BAFTA… Not a good sign for Bohemian Rhapsody and Black Panther at the Oscars. 🙂
– I’m glad Colman won. I hate it when they just copy-paste. Don’t yet have an opinion about how strong (or not) Weisz’s win makes her in the Oscar race. But I’m glad it wasn’t some irrelevant winner again. (Though I wouldn’t have minded a Claire Foy win one bit…)
– the acting nomination stat for screenplay here held (not a particularly strong one, but good enough to be a clue), as If Beale Street Could Talk, Roma and Cold War all lost. I didn’t pick BlacKkKlansman, for some reason, in my predictions, but rather Can You Ever Forgive Me? – I don’t think there was a stats reason behind it, though. I don’t remember exactly why I did that. I did pick The Favourite, of course.
– it was nice to see A Star is Born win Best Music, and quite deserved! I’m glad they didn’t blank it… They did blank First Man, however – as I’d felt they would. I KNEW I shouldn’t have predicted it for anything…
– I’m a fan of Vice’s editing win, unsurprisingly. Should make it a slight favorite for the Oscar. Pretty sure BAFTA was the best predictor here.
– Bohemian Rhapsody won exactly what I had expected (and predicted) it to win: sound and Malek.
Cutting off Editing and Cinematography is the craziest thing ever! What makes a movie? Ask ANY director! If these categories (and the other 2) are not shown in Europe because of ABC’s demand for commercial breaks, I will call for Europe and Asia to boycott Oscars.
The Oscars celebrate movies. Just not the ones who actually make them.
Yeah. Who cares about craft as long as there are stars taking selfies (no cinematography) and people pushing them so they accidentally cut the shoot. Then ask someone to stitch the footage.
Am I missing a story here?
Maybe. We hate the idea of at least 2/4 of these categories are out.
Who’s making those decisions?
I miss the Sasha of just a couple years ago who championed female-led films and bemoaned the fact that no movie with a female lead had been in serious contention for Best Picture since Million Dollar Baby. You would think every headline this year would be about how the two nominations leaders and Best Picture heavyweights this year are both films led almost exclusively by women — women of color and queer women, to boot! And yet practically every article this season has been focused on attacking the “haters” of Green Book (a film Sasha has admitted isn’t even her favorite) instead of highlighting these rare, deserving movies.
Now she’s even going so far as to find bizarre excuses why Roma is somehow statistically less likely to win Best Picture than even Black Panther! What is going on?? Why isn’t she advocating for this beautiful, meaningful, essential film? Why does it often feel like preferring Roma to Green Book is somehow subversive on this site? I’m befuddled.
Which female lead films? Am I missing sth? As I complained over all this years, AD kept bring the Million Dollar Baby strike, but has a female lead film been championed here when the race comes to 1-3 VIABLE contenders?
This page championed The Aviator over Million Dollar Baby, The Hurt Locker over Inglorious Basterds (OK with this one… Bigelow), 12 YAS over Gravity, Moonlight over LLL and was basically indifferent last year when we had two female lead films and Get Out contending.
You’re not wrong that, in practice, she has often championed other options over specific female-led films in the race. But in the past, she at least gave lip service to the idea that women deserved more representation at the Oscars and in the industry at large. I would’ve expected at least one headline this year about the historic nature of both Roma and The Favourite leading the nominations. But it’s radio silence on that front, all in service of propping up poor embattled Green Book.
Yes. She doesn’t have to like The Favourite to write an article that the 2 most nominated films are female-driven stories.
I guess she’s more ambitious now? She wants female-led films directed by women directors? Otherwise, it’s not worth it.
But I agree with the poor poor Green Book diatribes. Enough is enough! That film is so over-awarded already.
Ultimately we the movie going and awards following audience get the exact films we deserve. In an increasingly risk averse society, the blandness of a Green Book or a sanitized jukebox musical like Bohemian Rhapsody become the standard bearer of artistic excellence in the eyes of the public.
Is Roma a masterpiece for the ages? Probably really not, but it sure as hell took more chances than everything in this field. And if it gets smacked down so Driving Mister Daisy can hoist some big boys, don’t expect similarly adventurous projects to be funded much in the future.
It feels as though Sasha likes to be contrarian sometimes.
I don’t think there’s anything malicious against Roma or that this site is pro-Green Book because of the advertising. I just sense a lot of fatigue and exhaustion at the what this awards process has become.
Honestly the real story of this year should be just HOW Star is Born blew an absolutely winnable check all the boxes Oscar campaign against one of the weaker overall fields in memory.
Star is Born was never a real frontrunner. It was just some pundits who prematurely declared it as such. It’s a mediocre film that had no business being perceived as frontrunner anyway.
Make no mistake, if First Man had been nominated and had a shot of winning Sasha would be doing everything in her power to kneecap Green Book.
Yeah, you’d be wrong.
Here’s a crazy theory. Maybe Sasha didn’t enjoy The fucking Favourite.
Maybe Sasha doesn’t blindly boost Women’s Movies based on the Women Factor alone.
Would that be so weird?
Maybe some people don’t enjoy movies about women where the women abuse each other, brutalize each other, manipulate each other, and destroy each other.
(This is not Sasha’s reason. It’s my reason. )
But she loved Roma so why has she pushed (not just defended, pushed) GB over Roma in the last month?
I’m not 100 percent certain about how much she loved it. Either way, it’s been definitely talked down a bit more since the nominations on this site.
I appreciate Ryan wants to defend Sasha, but can anyone deny that Green Book has been promoted (how many “poor Green Book” pieces now) far more than Roma??
I can’t understand why Sasha would not champion a foreign, female led film instead?
I appreciate her favourites First Man and BlackKK have faded but it seems undeniable she wants Green Book to win.
She is trying to garner the sympathy vote. To highlight the issue of the Twitter folk, you don’t need mention after mention of it.
You would have thought “the Women of Roma” would have been a hell of a narrative this Oscar season.
Look at the site. There’s a huge Green Book ad behind the comments. That’s cash in her pocket.
I thought you loved The Favourite, Ryan. Perhaps I’m confusing you with someone else.
The Favourite got bumped out of my top 10 by other movies that settled in my head with more substantial value.
The Favourite is like 12 or 14 on my personal list of 2018 favorites.
I hold my fire about movies that I’m not particularly wild about. I might joke about a few movies that I don’t consider top tier. but I try not to attack them. It’s no fun for me. I don’t like seeing other people do that and I don’t do it myself.
You wrote this about the film you rated 12 or 14 on your personal list of 2018 favourites?:
“Maybe some people don’t enjoy movies about women where the women abuse each other, brutalize each other, manipulate each other, and destroy each other.”
Ok, then. I dread to consider what your take is on the films you rated, say, 22 or 28!
I admire a lot of things about The Favorite, and respect very much the creative choices made in its design and style and ambition.
Know who else feels exactly the same way?
All the BAFTA voters who rightfully rewarded all those fascinating individual aspects last night, but ultimately decided that these parts didn’t add up to a fully satisfying whole, and declined to name it Best Film of the Year.
I enjoy The Favourite as feast for eyes, and the first hour was a wicked romp, as good as any movie all year.
The second half unraveled badly for me. I started to feel nauseated and ill about the amoral cruelty. Not so much the cruelty the characters inflicted on each other; that’s fiction. But the gleeful way the director reveled in the cruelty.
Some guys like to watch a “catfight” — especially gay guys. I’m not one of those guys, alright? — especially when the consequences of the cattiness are so devastating.
“The second half unraveled badly for me. I started to feel nauseated and ill about the amoral cruelty. Not so much the cruelty the characters inflicted on each other; that’s fiction. But the gleeful way the director revelled in the cruelty.”
I gather you’re not a big Tarantino fan, then?
No, really, I see what you’re getting at. But the point of the movie, I think, is that all the scheming and the ‘cattiness’ have dire human consequences. Maybe the director did ‘revel in the cruelty’, but he did it with the purpose of showing us that nothing good will come out of being cruel to others. If you engage in this kind of warfare, you’re bound to end up a victim at some point.
In that sense it is actually quite the morality play.
“I gather you’re not a big Tarantino fan.”
Good guess. That’s no secret. I’ve no use for any Tarantino after Jackie Brown.
Did the site contributors post their top film lists? Are they published on the site anywhere? Would like to check them out if possible.
We didn’t do that this year. My list is always in flux, so these rankings will surely shift around as weeks and months go by, but here’s roughly how I feel right now about my top 25, at this moment in time:
(this is written in pencil, not ink)
Roma
If Beale Street Could Talk
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
BlacKkKlansman
First Man
Burning
Cold War
8th Grade
Let the Sunshine In
Shoplifters
Hereditary
First Reformed
The Rider
Leave No Trace
Blindspotting
Death of Stalin
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
The Other Side of the Wind
Green Book
The Favourite
Never Look Away
Black Panther
Widows
You Were Never Really Here
Zama
Here’s me inspecting every frame of film from 2018 to find things I can latch onto that give me a cinema stiffy, or else make me furrow my brow about.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8c9827762375ef8b43e2f1d19cde35a168213ad7b41c4b64ac875683d1e3a3be.jpg
Good, if rather predictable, list (don’t worry, mine would be just as predictable). Safe to say, Green Book, would be nowhere near my top 25 (neither would Widows), but the rest would definitely be in contention.
I found my screener for Angel that Bryce has personally recommended so maybe when I toss that into the top 25 it will eject something else that’s iffier.
Which reminds me, Bryce talked me into Ready Player One last week, and I almost forgot how much fun it was, so I should probably think about expanding this list to be a top 30.
since the pool of top-tier movies is around 40 every year, or if we’re lucky, 50, it’s hard not to be predictable when I’m naming over half of those 🙂
the ranking of course is what rankles some people, and that’s not a worry for me, because if you take this list away from me right now and ask me to retype it in the same order, I doubt I could duplicate it.
that’s partly why I don’t do numbered lists or assign scores. movies aren’t math, right?
Interesting list, Ryan! A mix of things that really worked for me and ones that didn’t work so well.
In particular, I loved Burning, Shoplifters, Cold War, and Leave No Trace (which comprised my top 5 of 2018, along with The Wild Pear Tree), and highly respected Roma. In 2017, I loved Zama, First Reformed, The Rider, and The Death of Stalin, and highly respected You Were Never Really Here.
I liked If Beale Street Could Talk and Can You Ever Forgive Me? and The Favourite (although was slightly underwhelmed), but wasn’t the biggest fan of the others.
name a movie or two that you liked a lot that’s not on my list, because I haven’t seen everything.
recommend something!
(3 movies are absent on purpose. that’s me being “edgy” and ignoring 3 actual Best Picture nominees.)
(edgy = honest)
Not on your list from my top films of 2018:
– The Wild Pear Tree
– Happy as Lazzaro
– Mandy
– Climax
– Minding the Gap
– Non-Fiction
– Birds of Passage
– Free Solo
I also quite liked Support the Girls, Long Day’s Journey Into Night, Isle of Dogs, In Fabric, Museo, The Tale, Three Identical Strangers, We the Animals, Shirkers, and Madeline’s Madeline.
It was an amazing year for documentaries.
+1 for Mandy. My number 3 of the year currently.
Glad to be in good company, aroncido! It’s #8 for me, but I found it fascinating and loved Cage/Riseborough/cinematography/score.
Thanks KG!
I leave animated films and documentaries off my lists. Gives me more space for narrative film.
Is your list here ranked? I haven’t had a chance to catch most of those yet, but now I’ll put a KG star by them.
No problem, Ryan! Will be interested to hear your thoughts when you catch up with these. My ranked list for 2018 is as follows:
1. Burning
2. Shoplifters
3. The Wild Pear Tree
4. Cold War
5. Leave No Trace
6. Roma
7. Happy as Lazzaro
8. Mandy
9. Climax
10. Minding the Gap
11. Non-Fiction
12. Birds of Passage
13. Free Solo
14. Support the Girls
The rest were honourable mentions.
My ranked list for 2017 is as follows:
1. Foxtrot
2. Zama
3. Phantom Thread
4. Loveless
5. First Reformed
6. Columbus
7. The Rider
8. Faces Places
9. Marjorie Prime
10. A Ghost Story
11. The Death of Stalin
12. The Florida Project
13. You Were Never Really Here
Interesting list, Ryan! A mix of things that really worked for me and ones that didn’t work so well.
In particular, I loved Burning, Shoplifters, Cold War, and Leave No Trace (which comprised my top 5 of 2018, along with The Wild Pear Tree), and highly respected Roma. In 2017, I loved Zama, First Reformed, The Rider, and The Death of Stalin, and highly respected You Were Never Really Here.
I liked If Beale Street Could Talk and Can You Ever Forgive Me? and The Favourite (although was slightly underwhelmed), but wasn’t the biggest fan of the others.
The aggression and the hostility of the moderators of this site is really something. It’s quite interesting, anthropologically speaking.
Right. You’re looking for a site where readers can drop by and sneer and snarl at the site staff, be repeatedly snide about what we write — and we’re not allowed to respond?
This isn’t that site.
What do you think makes my reply “aggressive and hostile”?
I answered precisely and honestly.
Are you unaccustomed to hearing the word fuck?
Don’t watch The Favorite. its dialogue is seasoned with a dozen “cunts.”
Maybe moderating a site like this should be executed by someone with a tad more professionalism and a little less honesty?
Maybe I’m Sasha’s senior editor with a mind of my own and strong feelings that I like to express — and not a robotic neutered ‘moderator.’
Maybe a sanctimonious rant about what constitutes professional moderation of comments should be executed by someone who isn’t a Lego figure.
That’s real classy.
The moderator who out-moderates the moderator.
You know me, I put the “f-u” in “fun!”
As a longtime fan of a man who won a Grammy for a song containing the phrase “fist fuck”, and who won an Oscar for the soundtrack of a movie about the #@$%^&*@%$*^! founder of Facebook, I approve this message!
You have to understand that some AD readers are sensitive folks and they might not be used to such directness.
I think the tone of Ryan’s comment can seem aggressive but I like his forthrightness. I think he sometimes forgets that a lot of people on AD are not used to his direct approach. I noticed long time ago the AD readers are a bit delicate. I think Ryan is used to Twitter and it’s no holds bar.
(Rant deleted due to not wanting to get the boot, but suffice to say Certain Posters would not have enjoyed it.)
I didn’t know this was something you were dealing with, Ryan; a dear friend of mine is currently battling breast cancer, and while her overall prognosis is good, it still hurts to see her go through it. I wish you all the best regarding your health–would some homemade baked goods help? I have a long list of musicians who can vouch as to their quality…
Thank you so much, Robin. Truly means a lot to me.
Wishing all the best to your friend.
(Considerate of you to delete your rant.
I feel lucky I got see it [Disqus routinely sent me a copy of the original.] It was a doozy! Preheated to 350° Delish. I enjoyed the heck out of it. 🙂
Aw, thanks! *blush* I do righteous indignation for other people really, REALLY well (which is how I ended up on Michael Stipe’s shit list while I was living in Athens, GA, but that’s a whole ‘nother story…), but I’m absolutely terrible at standing up for myself. *sigh* Such is life… (Also: I’m serious about the baked goods offer; my user name was inspired when I first got online in 1993, when I was still hoping to be the next Annie Leibovitz and taking pictures at concerts, mostly in smaller rock clubs, and bringing baked goods to soundcheck was my way of getting in good with people. I’m seriously thinking of starting a blog about my misspent youth on the fringes of the alternative rock scene in the ’80s & ’90s–think there’s a market for it?)
Perhaps you should steer them over to Wells’ site. Because he never ever responds to people. Nope. Not ever.
Wells deliberately spouts racist and misogynist garbage in order to get his 50 most excitable gargoyles to churn traffic for him with their slobbering mockery. Wells runs a zoo and knows he needs to throw his collection of jackals raw meat. That’s Jeff’s brand.
Wells drops stink bombs and then he runs and hides.
I know I say unpopular stuff sometimes, but I stick around to defend to myself. Obviously a lot of people here think they can run roughshod and never expect to staff to say “hey, ouch, that stings.”
Most of the time I don’t have time for it, and frankly I don’t have time today either. I’ve been pretty busy the past several months trying to stop cancer from eating me up.
Moderating comments is a Prisoner’s Dilemma, and the most effective strategy when dealing with that dilemma is tit for tat. You behave, we behave. You break from decorum with passive aggressive potshots or worse, and we’re free to respond in a proportionate manner.
Those are the house rules. Take it or leave it.
But what about Roma? Where’s the support for that?
And it’s absolutely fine if you and Sasha didn’t like The Favourite. No one is saying that championing female-led films means you’re required to love every single movie that comes out with a female protagonist. But a person can not like a movie without deciding to actively tear it down or claim that it’s only successful BECAUSE of the very representation one claims to champion — as Sasha did last year with Lady Bird, saying that Gerwig was only nominated because she was a woman, which in my opinion is both disrespectful to Gerwig and harmful to the very progress Sasha claims to want. And seeing the historical significance Roma and The Favourite minimized this year in favor of Green Book — regardless of Sasha’s personal opinion of either movie — is disappointing.
To be fair, Sasha pulled her punches on Lady Bird big time even while expressing consternation that Gerwig became the MeToo Oscar It Girl with the Entertainment Weekly covers to boot.
Lady Bird is one of the most bizarrely overrated films in the modern awards season history. An enjoyable but totally clichéd mix of situations we have seen in better films that didn’t receive such an acclaim. Dee Rees made a masterful (and accessible) piece of art that would be a BP nominee if not for Netflix distributing it. Sasha’s problem was with that situation.
P.S.: Mean Girls > Lady Bird to say the least.
If Mudbound had been made by a known commodity instead of Dee Rees it would have landed in multiple major categories. Netflix got real lucky this year that someone with the juice of Cuaron worked with them.
Mudbound is a top 5 BP nominee in any given year. Roma is one of the best films of all time. That’s the difference. One is incredible, but deniable for the industry’s standards. The other is not.
I would have for sure nominated Mudbound, but the Academy is in many ways still very risk averse.
I mean, Lady Bird and Mean Girls are both beautiful in their way. We don’t need to choose!
JP & Pete
I very much apprecitate you guys taking a repetitive site-gripe complaint and redirecting it to talk about movies. Thank you.
We try, man.
Frankly, the last few days I haven’t been thinking as much about the Green Book nonsense more than wondering why Miller’s Crossing doesn’t show up more in those “Alternative Oscar” articles we see this time of year.
I also appreciate it when the conversation gets redirected to actually talking about movies rather than whining about what those mean people on Twitter said about Green Book today. Thank you.
MrScreenAddict
Looking for posts on this site that unabashedly praise The Favourite and have highlighted its technical and thematic elements again and again to high heaven?
Looking for an AD staff writer who admires and maybe even adores The Favourite — a staff writer who has worked her charming self non-stop to bring you exclusive in-depth interviews with all the talented filmmakers who made The Favourite possible?
Her name is Jazz Tangcay.
And if I’m not mistaken, not one fucking time have you ever commented on any of her posts about The Favourite.
Not one fucking time have you ever thanked Jazz for all the tireless effort she puts into making Awards Daily a veritable archive of one-of-a-kind oral history of every Oscar season for the past few years.
(And of course, not a peep out of anybody or any upvote for a comment that praises the work Jazz does for the site and for its readers.)
I haven’t seen the Favourite (although it looks very well made). I’ve heard that the third act is kind of the dividing line with people. Very much like Three Billboards was last year.
I don’t think it has a bad of anything like. Certainly nothing even remote close to Three Billboards.
Not among my favourites but nice work Jazz.
Are you talking wins for MC, or merely nominations?
Nominations
The reason I ask is merely because I was curious whether anyone out there now genuinely felt that Miller’s Crossing was superior even to Goodfellas. (Personally, my favourite movie of 1990 is Ghost, and MC was one of the few Coen movies I actually switched off in disinterest, but my opinion is neither here nor there; I just would have been surprised to learn that Scorsese’s film had been overtaken in general esteem by any other work from that year, even if it was the Coens’.)
You should give it another shot, the dialogue is tremendous
Maybe I will; there are cases where I ‘came around’ on movies that I initially ‘jumped ship’ from but was glad I ended up giving a second chance to (‘2010: The Year We Make Contact’ is the first one that comes to mind). Then there are those that I try twice – and fail twice – to even get half-way into (from memory, these would include ‘The Barbarian Invasions’ – and ‘Battlefield Earth’. Yep, I put those two in the same sentence because I’m strange.)
But Mean Girla is one of the best films ever made. It’s easy that way.
This post like 20 others sets Roma as firmly as the frontrunner.
It then presents scenarios in which predictable expectations might be upended because so many expectations this year have been upended.
But do please continue to fixate obsessively on the 19 fucking words in this 1200-word wide-ranging analysis.
Ignore everything else and choke on those 19 words.
You’re just as obsessed in your comments as you claim Sasha is in her writing.
Sasha is speaking out about an issue that bugs her: smear campaigns.
You’re speaking out about an issue that bugs you: Sasha.
Hope you’re feeling satisfied by hammering the enemy you see.
The Green Book “smear campaign” was really not that sustained, and frankly when’s the last time anyone really wrote anything more about it? To be honest, it didn’t even have the intensity that the Three Billboards take down had last year.
Perhaps next year we can devote some time to the topic of how cynical the “poor poor pitiful me someone on the internet said something about my film, you should give me the Oscar to ease my pain” campaigns have become.
Ryan, seriously, she actually says Black Panther is a better chance stats wise.
She’s playing down Roma and playing up Green Book. Clear as day
Clear as day, except for:
“The only problem with that thinking is simply this: If not Roma, then
what? This is the hardest question to answer. Which means,
paradoxically, it might be the simplest question to answer. It is Roma.
And that’s that, Occam’s Razor and all.”
I mean, yeah, disagree with some parts of Sasha’s article but her overall analysis is consistent with what is happening. I mean, it would boring if she just wrote “Roma” will win BP and that’s it. She needs to make her articles interesting and at least this got people talking. Yeah, I think she is doing her job.
I would link you to all the 150 posts Sasha has written in support of the efforts by Netflix to broaden our idea of what makes a movie a movie,
— and the 1500 times she has had to put up with getting slapped around for first taking that stance years and years ago.
But you were here to see all that.
There has rarely this season been a State of the Race written by Sasha that doesnt reaffirm her belief that Roma is a masterwork and that Cuaron will be winning multiple Oscars.
Try to get over the fact that Sasha simply likes a few other movies even more.
The thing with Netflix is that they’re at least TRYING to put some money into some more interesting projects (and to be fair a lot of dogshit too). If the studios resent losing Oscar space to Netflix, then they ought to consider making some less “safe” prestige pictures.
Funny that no one blew a similar gasket about Amazon bankrolling Manchester by the Sea.
No one blew a gasket about Amazon because they actually give their films exclusive theatrical releases before making them available for streaming.
(Not saying I agree or disagree with those blowing their gaskets, but that is the reasoning.)
I do think Amazon’s little Woody Allen problem may inspire some artists to look elsewhere if considering streaming sites.
Why? because Allen is such a great guy who was treated badly by Amazon? They are business which is owned by the richest man in the world and were simply protecting their brand.
Bingo. Sasha writes about the movies she likes more, not who is more likely to win.
That’s her perogative, it’s her site but this mix of quasi-scientific stats based analysis and cheerleading is awfully difficult to sort out if you’re really trying to know the real state of the race.
The nuances make a lot of difference. You can see tell when Sasha is predicting and when is championing a film. When goes for a longshot prediction or a gut feeling, that’s what she is doing. And many times she would like to stay ahead of curve rather than just follow what everyone is doing. You seem to have a problem understanding that.
“Maybe some people don’t enjoy movies about women where the women abuse each other, brutalize each other, manipulate each other, and destroy each other.”
What a bizarre statement to make. You can not enjoy the movie perfectly fine, but it seems bizarre that the fact that it’s females acting this way and having their own agency to fight back against the situation the patriarchal setting has forced them in, is your major issue.
Anyways, just thought I’d throw out that comments like this from you, Ryan, the moderator of the comment boards, are really discouraging and aggressive. Frankly I haven’t commented much all year because of the hostility you and sometimes Marshall have thrown at anyone having a slilghtly dissenting opinion on an article.
I used to love coming here to discuss things and unite as film lovers, even when we had differences, but I’m so afraid of voicing any type of opinion now, and it’s sad to me that this website has become vitrolic, largely due to the moderators.
I finally blocked Marshall, the abuse got to be a bit too much.
That’s quite shocking coming from you. I have not seen Marshall be aggressive or insulting as you have been to other AD readers.
“Maybe some people don’t enjoy movies about women where the women abuse each other, brutalize each other, manipulate each other, and destroy each other.”
That’s your example of me being aggressive?
I’m telling you frankly how I feel about a movie, and that’s the “aggressive” sentence that scares you into not responding?
(Hate to be this guy, but if you want to come across a little better when you’re supporting women, don’t call them “females” — they’re not a jungle species that you’re studying with binoculars. Female is an adjective. Woman is the noun.)
Nah just your comments where you aggressively yell at the readers, swear and repeatedly reply at people like a petulant child. I was calling that out and also pointing out how dumb your opinion regarding women led stories are when they have agency. Thanks for the English/feminist tips. Maybe you should grow up and learn to take criticism if you’re going to publish things on the internet.
Here’s a guy who just comes right out and calls me “dumb” and labels my heartfelt personal opinion about a movie “bizarre.”
But I’m not allowed to cuss or talk back.
Have I attacked you personally, filmmyles? Nope.
Have I insulted you? Nope.
Have you attacked me personally? Yes you have.
Have you finally got up the nerve to speak out so that you can call me names and tell me how shitty you think I am? Yes.
Have I hurt your feelings by calmly explaining a point of polite PC grammar to you? Apparently so.
Okay, you’re the angel in this conversation and I’m the devil.
Happy?
Oh Ryan. I hope these petty arguments you seem to love having sustain you in your personal life because from my perspective, I don’t know how you don’t exhaust yourself as much as you exhaust us. I’ll go back to lurking. Thankfully there are some still civil commenters whose opinions I like to see. Sorry to snap at try to vocalize how much you’ve personally made these comments a terrible place. My second comments back were more aggressive, but clearly you can’t take a point the first time around. Enjoy the rest of the season
Coolio.
Thanks for all the thought-provoking insight about movies you brought to this page today (?)
We don’t have a lot of rules in the comments, but personal attacks toward other readers and staff is where we do draw the line.
We don’t usually let anyone pop in for the sole purpose of insulting us, but I’ll let your comment here stand so can I see who upvotes it.
I like to be aware of who hates me.
filmmyles, you’ve posted here 123 times under this disqus ID and I truly never noticed you before you came at me with your claws out.
I never see you being timid about commenting when you talk about movies.
Maybe you’re just wary about getting in my face because you know I don’t appreciate that shit?
At any rate, there’s maybe a lesson to be gleaned from this tiresome bickering that you felt compelled to initiate, so I’ll leave it here on display for you, Abigail.
“We don’t usually let anyone pop in for the sole purpose of insulting us, but I’ll let your comment here stand so can I see who upvotes it.
I like to be aware of who hates me.”
Is this irony?
That’s funny. Well, I said that’s how Ryan’s comments across to me. They seem to be loaded withy irony or sarcasm.
It seems people have an issue with the tone of your comments rather its content. It seems to me like sarcastic or ironic. I don’t mind it but some people find it aggressive for some reason.
Also maybe take a moment to note how many upvotes these comments calling out your behavior are getting vs. your hostile ones. Find humility before you alienate your entire readership
This post of yours is something like a performative contradiction
That’s not the angle I saw “The Favourite” from but I can see that view is possible. It’s women in power and power games involve a lot of that. Overall I think “The Favourite” is pro women.
Why not just cut all the categories but the top six and make the show an hour? Better yet, just eliminate the entire show and scroll the winners at the end of ABC’s The Good Doctor?
“Better yet, just eliminate the entire show and scroll the winners”
Just open the envelope for Best Picture in the first 5 minutes, and then broadcast the winning movie for the next 2 hours.
Anyone who tries to switch channels will be redirected to watch Trump rallies on an endless loop.
Don’t laugh. That’s how most of March-November 2016 felt to me.
Better this way than what 2019 is going to give us.
I want my regular Oscars back: a host, a night of remembering the year’s best movies and all 24 categories presented on the show
Imagine if they presented cinematography during a commercial break last year… Yeah exactly… Bull honky.
This is gonna be the shittiest Oscars ever
This is gonna be the stupidest Oscars ever, and it’s all on the Academy
Actually, Sasha, Black Panther is a longer shot than Roma.
Because NO film (NO FILM EVER!) has won best picture after missing directing, screenplay AND editing nominations.
Black Panther missed all three.
So that’s the stat of stats.
Grand Hotel. Received only a Best Picture nom.
Grand Hotel was in 1932. Film Editing was first awarded in 1934. So nope. 🙂
“Grand Hotel was in 1932.”
Still rilly relevant tho.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/02a1092590569b0e4efa516d54586ab6abe3c8e42b050567de13d085e7927271.gif
It’s relevantly irrelevant
Both Black Panther and Roma are both film anomalies, introducing big-blockbuster superheroes and the power of Netflix into the race. I wouldn’t fully trust any stat to predict how those movies will perform
Actually, you’re right to a degree. But we already have a hint. The Academy already voted using a preferential ballot (for nominations in all categories) and the vote was: 10 nods for Roma (including a surprise in actress, a shocker in supporting actress; and only one snub – editing) and 7 nods for Black Panther (including snubs for screenplay, editing, acting, directing).
The difference being that they are very different preferential ballots! The one for nominations rewards passion not consensus and the one for wins rewards consensus not passion, the mechanics of the ballot work in very different ways… So we can’t exactly say that is proof it’ll do well at the Oscars. It certainly does help though!
How come they didn’t put down Black Panther under SAG, I mean it won it?
I suppose Sasha was greying out SAG for The Shape of Water to indicate that it was not nominated, and then left it greyed out as neither Roma nor Green Book was nominated. I don’t think it’s anything substantial to worry about.
Oh
Actually, the list is right – the column title is wrong. Those are Oscar BP’s
But The Shape of Water is still missing.
I see
“Believe it or not, Black Panther winning is less of a long shot than Roma winning just based on stats alone. That’s because NO FILM has ever won in the Foreign Language category.”
This is patently absurd. A movie with no directing, acting, writing, OR editing nominations is not “less of a long shot” than a movie with 10 nominations and wins from BAFTA, DGA, and BFCA — even taking into account the fact that the latter is a foreign language film. Only 10 foreign films have been nominated for BP before Roma. Yes, those all lost; but 10 movies out of 500+ Best Picture nominees in 90 years is not a very large sample size to draw a stat from. Certainly not a stat strong enough to claim a movie with Roma’s strengths is suddenly less of a frontrunner than a movie with Black Panther’s weaknesses simply because it’s in Spanish.
Of course it isn’t. It’s absurd. And Sasha ignores the fact that NO film in 90 years has won best picture after missing all three crucial Oscar nods – directing, writing and editing.
Grand Hotel.
Zooey said in 90 years. Had they said since 1932 it would be more accurate..
The Oscars are going to be 91. The first films were Wings/Sunrise, the next Broadway Melody, then All Quiet on the Western Front, then Cimarron, then Grand Hotel. I’m pretty sure my math holds.
Yes, i wasn’t questioning YOUR stat I was attempting to show how Zoeey’s could be made more correct. No film since 1932 has won without…
Yes, but a film missing all three nods has NEVER won best picture. The trick is that editing started in 1934.
I apologize. I had not fully read your text. Forgive my smartassedness. Nevertheless, I would not dismiss Black Panther so easily. If anything it’s BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite and Vice I can’t see winning. In any other era I’d dismiss BP and BR. In fact they might not have been nominated. A Star is Born was such a front runner it’s hard to entirely overlook it. Then there’s Roma vs Green Book. I’ll still be predicting Roma. Too much going for it. And I don’t see the ballot being that much of an impediment. But I honestly won’t be shocked if any of the 8 win.
I’m personally not excluding any of the 8 films. This is the year of POPULAR. They should have Chenoweth and Mendel on stage. I’m predicting Roma, but I’m not gonna surprised by anything winning.
Not to mention the fact that four of those BP nominated foreign films were not eligible for the best foreign language film category and thus wouldn’t have had their vote totals effected by it and that one (The Emigrants) was nominated in both and lost in both. So there are really only five examples of Academy members supposedly going “I love it, but Best Foreign Language film is good enough.”
The problem is that “Roma” faces one and, to be honest, mostly untested stat while BP faces similar stats across the board. To miss one of the major categories is usually bad but to miss all of them is unthinkable.
And it probably would’ve won the GG too if foreign films were eligible for best drama/comedy.
My takeaway from this article is simple. Argo is the best Best Picture of all time. Or at least in the examples Sasha gave anyway. It’s the only film that won all four guilds and the BAFTA and Oscar. And then the very next year, 12 Years a Slave won Best Pic while only winning a single guild, the PGA. So it is clearly the worst Best Pic winner. The guilds have spoken.
Slumdog and NCFOM also won, didn’t they?
“12 Years a Slave” also won BAFTA (yeah, there’s a mistake in this article).
Slumdog Millionaire and Schindler’s List, among others, had even more convincing sweeps. (And no relevant snubs, to boot.)
For some, this situation is very comfortable. If the ratings go up, the mess worked. If not, just blame Netflix. That’s it.
Honestly, the move Oscar should make is to stop trying so hard to placate potential viewers who in reality wouldn’t watch the Oscars if you literally paid them to do so. The whole point of right wing culture warriors isn’t to actually change the culture, it’s to complain that their culture is being taken away from them. So all of these “please watch us, look we nominated BIG HITS this time” pleas just look freaking stupid as hell.
Regardless of many issues I have with the Grammys, I have to admit they scored a goal by picking Alicia Keys to host. She was terrific. The main point why she was great… she genuinely loves music and was respectful towards the material that was being honored. Not the case of most Oscar ceremonies in recent memory that kept mocking the fact people don’t know/care about the films involved.
Scorsese or Spielberg should host
You are right. Producers should STOP trying to grab a general audience of 10’s of millions of viewers and should instead cater to viewers that enjoy the show and what it means. There is so much to watch on television, so much GOOD television, a person cannot possibly catch it all. Gone are the days when 40% of America tuned into watch the big night. The Oscars are so dissected and the production so stage-y, that it’s not even good television except for those die hards out there.
Reading the statement, it would appear that 2020 will see another 4-6 categories have their turn in commercial breaks, on a rotational basis. I’d like to think Best Song would get that treatment, but Best Screenplay/Director are probably more vulnerable (ugh!). This seems like the vengeance of the short-lived Most Popular Film category.
Just have to see what categories don’t feature a Disney nominee. Amazingly, Black Panther was snubbed in the whole set ejected to the commercials.
I would normally resist this kind of conspiracy theory, but the fact that both sound categories are going to be broadcast live in case Black Panther wins is telling.
Subtext: Green Book is winning.
And its win will be quickly forgotten less than 24 hours later.
People really ought to revisit the 1978 confrontation between Coming Home and Deer Hunter if you want to see what a real smear campaign looks like.
I’m woefully ignorant about that – what was the smear?
I hope people do forget about Green Book winning. Don’t think I can stand months and years of moaning, Shakespeare in Love-style.
Coming Home was smeared as anti-military and Jane Fonda was still an enormous lightning rod for controversy. Deer Hunter was smeared as racist and pro-Vietnam War to boot. After all the business the year before with Vanessa Redgrave and her Israel politics, it was a pretty tense Oscar campaign season.
I don’t think that Green Book should win because it’s not even remotely the best film of the year.
It’s not even the best film with Mahershala Ali in it.
Considering Three Billboard pieces were straight up calling McDonagh a racist (while massively misunderstanding that Rockwell’s deputy wasn’t actually redeemed at the end), the crocodile tears for Green Book seem misplaced.
Can you recommend something to read about that year? I read everything about past years, as I’m obsessed.
Cinematography and Editing are 2 of the most coveted awards among Oscar fans, year after year. To ignore awards of such relevance in your few hour telecast is something to be deeply ashamed about. When the biggest awards show for cinema can’t see fit to give cinematography & editing their moment in the sun, then their priorities are mutilated.
In the Trump era, the first ever foreign film, a Mexican film, winning best picture should have Sasha in raptures.
Instead, she’s writing how black panther is a better shot stats wise.
I don’t get it Sasha. Do you really like Green Book that much more?
It is in Sasha’s interest to keep the race as close as possible for traffic, gone are the days when she would call a race over. I wouldn’t read too much into it, it’s just business.
No, she clearly doesn’t. A lot of people hate GB so Sasha has to defend it. That’s kind of her thing.
UPDATE: Variety is now reporting that the Academy will stream the presentation of those four awards live online so viewers can watch along at home during the commercials rather than find out the winners via Twitter.
It’s better than nothing, I suppose.
So now I have to fire up the iPad every time a commercial comes because a category is being announced? It gets stupider and stupider with each passing day. Just give them out during the main ceremony. Would that be so hard?
Yeah. Scrap the ads, keep the categories and give the show to PBS, because ABC is ruining it.
It’s a nice compromise but for the sake of 4 awards Im sure they could’ve found time during the broadcast!
To be fair, I’m not really interested in watching adverts so I don’t mind that we now have something to watch during ad breaks as long as we know which ad breaks to turn the live stream on!
I’m sure the companies paying to advertise in those commercial breaks will love that idea.
Cinematography, Film Editing, Live Action Short and Make Up will be presented during commercial breaks. Shameful! This is so sad!
The Hollywood Reporter is reporting that the four categories that will be presented during commercial breaks will be:
Cinematography
Film Editing
Live Action Short
Makeup & Hairstyling
So not 6-7 as previously reported, but still disappointingly nonetheless — especially considering that Film Editing is one of the most exciting and open races of the whole night.
Guess that means Cuaron has Cinematography locked up.
No, that means the president of the Academy is a cinematographer and he wants to set an example.
Now watch poor Caleb Deshenal pull the upset.
Good spot
No one except Price Waterhouse knows who wins apparently. Though Sean Penn presenting Birdman BP after AGI directed him in 21 grams looked suspicious
I mean, Birdman had won PGA/DGA/SAG. It didn’t take a genius to figure out it was going to win BP.
But they always get someone connected with the frontrunner or one of the frontrunner to present the award. And everyone knew “Birdman” was winning after it won the triple crown.
Hey, even WE knew Birdman is winning. You didn’t need insider info for that.
Salma Hayek presented the award to Cuaron. Will Smith presented BP to 12 Years. Michelle Obama presented BP to her pals Affleck and Clooney. They do this all the time.
Will Smith presenting BP in the Gravity/12 Years year was more suspicious.
I still remember when Spielberg-by-association Harrison Ford presented Best Picture to Shakespeare in Love. The look on his face was classic.
To say the least. Not as bad as Nicholson nearly laughing that Crash won
No, seeing Spielberg, Lucas, and Coppola onstage to present Best Director when Scorsese finally won, giggling and nudging each other right up until the envelope was opened…now THAT was suspicious!
Scorsese had won the DGA and Globe
True, but can you imagine the looks on their faces if someone else had won?
When he said it in the interview I thought he was reaching, but oh my
The academy hasn’t even STARTED voting yet. So at best they’re assuming he’s winning.
Exactly. Nobody is going miss seeing him win as he will be on stage to accept BD and probably BP too.
So bizarre.
I would like to see them trying to make a film without a director of photography and editor.
They should just get rid of the awkward ‘banter’ from the category presenters.
Just one presenter per award! Or one presenter for every two related awards (Animated long/short, Costume/Makeup, Sound design/editing)
now I wish they just scrapped the Best Song performances instead
Well, the industry now adored a film with no director, no accomplished writing and that edited itself out of magic because Editing is not significant of a job enough to be part of the Oscar telecast. Amazing. In the end, it’s just the songs and the lypsinch really.
Idiotic. The people in those four categories are artists working in, with the possible exceptions of popular music and the Broadway theater, the most influential art form this country offers to the world. Even when the movies AMPAS honors are less than great, they remain an undeniable standard — though certainly not the only one — for anyone who aspires to dedicate himself or herself to the art of the motion picture.
That’s why you have an Academy. To honor those who do the best work in this art form each year (and we can certainly debate whether they get it right, or even nominate the worthiest movies). Argue about that as one might, what we’re seeing is that the artists in these four categories can’t get 90 freaking seconds — once a goddamn year — of recognition before a worldwide audience that, sadly, mostly sucks up their work and takes it for granted like lollipops.
Shameful. The Motion Picture Academy is being ruled by television, a much younger and far, far, far less storied incubator of lasting works of art. The tail is wagging the dog.
Just get rid or shorten the song performances problem solved. It takes five minutes alone to name every credited song writer.
They’ve already shorten each song to 90 seconds or so. Except maybe for the ASiB and Black Panther songs.
That’s not fair to the other three those other two have been played to death anyways.
I’d rather both shorts and docos rather than cinematography or editing in the ad breaks
No, I’d rather it cinematography, especially if Cuaron wins. This is only exposure bothy shorts categories are going to get and shouldn’t be denied their moment.
“…especially if Cuaron wins.”
So if someone other than Cuaron wins, it’s less worthy of being televised?
No, it’s the other way around. It will not be as bad if Cuaron won cinematography because he will be on stage to accept BD. And let’s be honest, we have seen more than enough of him winning, haven’t we? He can collect BD and probably BP, so that’s fine.
Variety is now reporting that the Academy will stream the presentation of those awards live online so viewers can watch along at home during the commercials rather than find out the winners via Twitter.
It is not as bad as I expected (especially considering Cuaron might be giving four different speeches in one night), but this is still disrespectful to us Oscar fans. We’ve waited all year for this ceremony, and this is how they treat us?
Consider this: This year’s Grammys went almost four hours, yet the overall average audience went up slightly. I really don’t buy to much into the bullshit that people hate staying up late to see the winners.
Here is a better idea: Start the ceremony at 7PM ET/4PM PT, present every category, perform all five songs in their entirety (or at least a good portion to get the gist of the song), show 15-30 second clip of each Best Picture nominee, present the In Memoriam tribute, and that’s it. No unnecessary montages unless this is an anniversary year.
For me, FLF not winning BP is the same stat as no film by a black director winning BP; or no film directed by a woman winning BP or BD; or no director winning DGA back to back. It is a stat that’s says they didn’t win not that they cannot win. It is completely different to director, screenplay, acting and editing stats which tell us why a film didn’t win. Only a few handful of FLF have been nominated for BP and even fewer had key nominations. NONE of them were as strong as “Roma”. The closest was “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” which won the Globes BD, DGA and BAFTA BD. “Roma” won those plus BAFTA BP and BFCA BP and BD. It the favourite going into the last week of Oscar voting and no FLF has been in such a strong position. For me, the best comparison with Roma” is “The Artist” and it won BP in 2012.
Exactly. Almost no logic behind it.
Race is…
1. Green Book
2. Roma
3. Bohemian Rhapsody
4. Blackkklansman
5. The Favourite
6. Black Panther
7. A Star is Born
8. Vice
Anything can win, but it is likely 1-2 with 2-7 as not that shocking surprises. Vice could, too, but seems stone cold now
Green book was a fine good piece of movie entertainment
Yeah it’s still a wide open any of the films can win the oscar
I see Black Panther more of a long shot than Roma, or most nominated films really, based on the “content” stat. When you see recent years, especially since the preferential ballot, and new members, Oscar voters have been more consistent with the type of movie they choose as BP. Saying that just because no Foreign Language Film has ever won BP, makes Roma a long shot, then it’s the same to say no Comic Book movie has ever won BP. I see in Roma, Green Book, Blackkklansman or even The Favourite, a more similar movie to recent BP winners than Black Panther. Nomination stats say the same. Especially with the preferential ballot, super production / box office hits like Black Panther, Gravity, or Mad Max, have never won. In fact, when you see the nominations, Gravity had better chances then, than Black Panther now. Sure, you can say The Return of the King shows otherwise, but that film had to have 11 oscar nominations, win most guilds to win BP.
It’s still a wide race between Roma, Green Book, Blackkklansman, or The Favourite. Even Black Panther if you must.
Something is very clear for this year: stats will be broken. Any of these movies will take the Academy in a different direction. That’s a given. Today, which course will still be remains…
“Saying that just because no Foreign Language Film has ever won BP, makes Roma a long shot, then it’s the same to say no Comic Book movie has ever won BP.”
Well pointed out!
Green Book is not the worst of the nominees and not even close to the worst BP winners in history (Bohemian Rhapsody, on the other hand, would sit comfortably in that table). I would not be surprised by it winning.
I always said Roma reminds me a lot of Slumdog Millionaire. In both years, the industry’s choices were so poor that the “should” win was clear for the vast majority of people.
Looking at the last five years nominations, there is a consistent pattern for aspire to win best picture, and that is in the nominations, if your film is going to win is important to have nominations (not necessarily win) in Directing, Acting and Writing.
So, there are only three movies fulfilling that, and those are: Roma, The Favourite and Blackkklansman.
Looking that, is Roma to lose.
And before any of you cut down “…both Wings and Grand Hotel managed to win Best Picture despite missing all three of those critical nominations” as a stat that is based over 85 years ago, remember Wings was the only silent film to win until The Artist blew that stat out of the water.
Maybe if Black Panther had starred Greta Garbo or Gary Cooper, we might drawn some conclusions here.
It has Lupita, and that is all I need.
That was before prefential ballot and old members…
They were under the preferential ballot.
In truth, you can pick any stat to prove what you want to prove. That fact something that rarely happens happened recently doesn’t mean it’s going to happen again. “The Artists” wasn’t really silent. But the point is that it being silent wasn’t a key ingredient. I mean, is there a mime branch in the Academy? No, but there is a director, acting, screenplay and editing branches. They decide who wins and not being nominated by them is very bad for a film’s chances. I mean, anything could happen but the likelihood of BP winning BP is almost zero.
I can’t see green book winning. PGA is incredibly white…so that explains its best picture win. If boheminan rhapsody is winning actor then it will most likely win something else and that would be sound.
The Wings/Grand Hotel stat which only occurred in the late 1920s/early 1930s is going to best the newly diverse Academy and the masterpiece known as Roma? I disagree. If anything, the preferential ballot will probably favor Green Book, as it’s the type of “feelgood” movie that the Academy typically chooses. But otherwise, Best Picture is Roma’s to lose.
“Believe it or not, Black Panther winning is less of a long shot than Roma winning just based on stats alone.”
This might be the perfect proof that one should not interpret the race solely based on the stats, but also on the films itself and the specific character of one awards race. Cause each year is different and so are the films.
It might be, except that she’s completely wrong about that…
We don’t really know why Roma lost the PGA, or more importantly how much did it lose by? Moreover, we don’t know really how much the meter has been changed by nominations that busted more than a few stats for more than a few contenders.
“They have separate categories for a reason. That’s why no film has won in both categories. Ever.”
I have to say, I don’t know how much I like the insinuation that because something hasn’t happened before that maybe it shouldn’t happen now.