Original Screenplay – Eighth Grade, Bo Burnham
Adapted Screenplay – Can You Ever Forgive Me, Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty
Bathtubs Over Broadway – Ozzy Inguanzo & Dava Whisenant
Adam Mackay – Paul Selvin Award – Vice Movie
Outstanding Comedy Series – The Marvelous Mrs Maisel, Written by Kate Fodor, Noah Gardenswartz, Jen Kirkman, Sheila Lawrence, Daniel Palladino, Amy Sherman Palladino
Outstanding Drama Series – The Americans, Written by Peter Ackerman, Hilary Bettis, Joshua Brand, Joel Fields, Sarah Nolen, Stephen Schiff, Justin Weinberger, Joe Weisberg, Tracey Scott Wilson
Episodic Comedy – “Chapter One: Make Your Mark” (“Barry”) – Written by Alec Berg & Bill Hader
WGA episodic drama – “Paean To The People” (“Homeland”) – Written by Alex Gansa
WGA animated – “The Simpsons,” written by Stephanie Gillis
WGA’s Audience Participation/Quiz award – Who Wants to Be a Millionaire
WGA’s Paddy Chayefsky Award – Jenji Kohan
Screen Laurel Award – Babaloo Mandel co-recipient with Lowell Ganz
Children’s episodic WGA Award – Daniel Handler – “The Ersatz Elevator: Part One” of “A Series of Unfortunate Events”
Daytime Drama WGA Award – General Hosptial
Documentary Award – Ozzy Inguanzo and Dave Whisenant, Bathtubs Over Broadway
WGA Comedy/Variety Series – Nathan For You, Written by Leo Allen, Nathan Fielder, Carrie Kemper, Michael Koman, Adam Locke-Norton, Eric Notarnicola
Comedy/Variety Special – The Fake News with Ted Nelms, Written by John Aboud, Andrew Blitz, Michael Colton, Ed Helms, Elliott Kalan, Joseph Randazzo, Sara Schaefer
WGA ON AIR PROMOTION AWARD – Sean Brogan -Tribute to Star Trek for the 2019 Creative Arts Emmys.
WGA Long-form adapted award – The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story, written by Maggie Cohn, Tom Rob Smith, Based on the book Vulgar Favors by Maureen Orth
WGA Long-Form original – Castle Rock, Writers: Marc Bernardin, Scott Brown, Lila Byock, Mark Lafferty, Sam Shaw, Dustin Thomason, Gina Welch, Vinnie Wilhelm
FINALMENTE OS REFRESCOS PARA EIGHTH GRADE AND CYEFM
Um crime “Eight Grade” ter sido ignorado no Oscar. :/
I thought the WGA might go, fuck it and go for something wild like Scripter and SAG on Ensemble supporting actress. DGA also overlooked Cooper for debut despite being a nominee for the main award.
EG was my pick in Original because it just felt like it would win. Also, it’s because I liked it more than the other nominees, so maybe I was just biased.
However, I didn’t have any clue who was going to Adapted but CYEFG was one of three that I was going to win, eve if I thought it was the least likely of the three. It wasn’t a fluke win though but it did well enough with critics, showing up in LAFCA (a good predictor of screenplay) and NSFC.
“Blackkkansman” screenplay isn’t the strongest part of the film which is why it isn’t winning many screenplays. It is strong overall and the reason it will the Oscar is for the overall achievement by Lee. People will say that isn’t really the writer and is listed fourth among the writers but it wouldn’t be winning screenplay if it wasn’t for Lee’s input, especially the direction. Lee is nominated three times and cannot win BD or BP so screenplay is the place to reward him for his achievement and it’s made more natural by the fact his competition all have weak films, in terms of nominations, that is.
Great prediction! And agree with everything else you said, as well.
Bryan singer should have been nominated he’s a great director.
Perhaps Singer would have been recognized if instead he had been molesting young girls. Hollywood shout out to Roman Polanski. 😉
Well done WGA! Excellent choices. I agree that this result is a good look for The Favourite, which I think deserves to go in as third favourite for Best Picture on Oscar night.
Second favorite. Anything other than Roma beating it wouldn’t shock me, of course, but would be a stats upset, honestly, at this point. (Except maybe Vice.)
[Oh, yeah – makes sense to also post these again:]
Results for my 8th Annual Best Picture Preferential Ballot Simulation:
Some quick details about the process, first… I posted the request for ballots in 11 different threads at Awards Daily, as well as in one thread in the Movie Awards Redux forum (where a lot of the old Oscar Buzz gang from the now defunct IMDb message boards have relocated, as far as I can tell). I collected, in total, 45 ballots from Awards Daily and 28 ballots from Movie Awards Redux, plus my and my mom’s, for a total of 75. Three more than last year. As I’ve done in the past, for the separate counts, I assigned my mom’s ballot to the Movie Awards Redux lot, and my own to the Awards Daily lot. In any case, at least this year, the final result 100% would not have changed, for either, had I assigned both to one place or the other, or neither anywhere. I have, as always, a full list of the user names of the people who took part (and to whom I am genuinely grateful), which I can share with anyone who would like to look it over. (I’ve never had such a request, but I’ve always compiled the list anyway.) Nobody’s ballot got counted twice. (Unless somebody voted both places, under different user names, and didn’t tell me about it. Which I doubt.)
All that out of the way… well… 🙂 I have the results, and they’re, perhaps, unusually interesting. (I might go so far as to say they’re definitely that, but that could just be me.) In the overall count, the winner was, EASILY, The Favourite, by a final score of 45-30 over Roma. The two had almost 75% of the total #1 votes. The Favourite was ahead 31-24, and its lead never diminished one bit, but rather increased steadily. BlacKkKlansman finished a very distant third, with A Star is Born fourth. Fourth out (so, finishing in fifth place) was Green Book, third out was Black Panther, second out was Vice and first out was Bohemian Rhapsody, with a lone first place vote. More details on all of this can be found in the round-by-round breakdown below, which I provide every year.
Now, one might come up with the theory that The Favourite winning is mostly due to the votes from Movie Awards Redux, but this actually turns out to not quite be true. The margin is a result of that, but not the win. Counting only the Movie Awards Redux votes, The Favourite wins 20-9 over Roma in the final two – the same margin it had on #1 votes. But the even more interesting news comes from counting only the Awards Daily ballots, where Roma was in first place on #1 votes, 18-14, but only picked up three more votes along the way, losing out, in the end, by the same margin it had originally led by, four votes – 25-21. Not something that happens a lot in these simulations, and, I’m sure, not something most people would have guessed might happen: The Favourite benefiting copiously from the preferential ballot…
Now, why I find this to be potentially relevant even from a predictions perspective: in the previous 7 editions of this simulation that I’ve done, the Best Picture winner has NEVER finished in second place. Not once. It finished in first twice. This, of course, may well be random (the sample is still very small, and the expectancy about one second place), but, on the other hand, what would worry me about it, were I a Roma supporter, would be that it, at least in my opinion, makes a lot of sense that this wouldn’t happen. The Best Picture winner is either a movie that isn’t among the big favorites of the internet community at all (like The King’s Speech, Argo, Spotlight or The Shape of Water – or, apparently, 12 Years a Slave, which finished a rather distant third, tied with The Wolf of Wall Street) or is a movie that’s so popular/beloved, not just by the Academy, that even said community likes it more than everything else (Birdman, Moonlight). It’s true, Birdman DID beat Boyhood by just the one vote, but, nevertheless, it did beat it… And this is not the case this year. Roma lost by a very clear margin. So, maybe, as I and others believe, it is, indeed, a very vulnerable front runner for Best Picture, and The Favourite or Green Book or, who knows, something else entirely, might win instead… Or maybe it just breaks the streak. Equally plausible. However, I would like to point out one more interesting tidbit which isn’t in Roma’s favor: every single DGA winner that went on to lose Best Picture at the Oscars in the modern preferential era (whether it won or lost the PGA) has finished dead second in these simulations. Gravity, The Revenant, La La Land. True, Gravity was tied for first, but lost out fair and square (to Her) via the same tie-breaking method the Academy uses.
I give, again, the results of all of these simulations (this year’s included), for further reference and verification of my statements directly above:
2011 The Social Network —– details not saved (second place was Black Swan, I believe)
2012 – not held –
2013 Zero Dark Thirty ——— 37-24 over Silver Linings Playbook
2014 Her ————————– 33-33 tied with Gravity, won 19-18 on total first place votes
2015 Birdman ——————– 62-61 over Boyhood
2016 Mad Max: Fury Road — 51-37 over The Revenant
2017 Moonlight —————— 41-32 over La La Land
2018 Phantom Thread ——— 39-33 over Call Me By Your Name
2019 The Favourite ————- 45-30 over Roma
The breakdown
Round 1
The Favourite 31
Roma 24
BlacKkKlansman 6
A Star is Born 4
Green Book 4
Black Panther 3
Vice 2
Bohemian Rhapsody 1 OUT!
Round 2
The Favourite 31
Roma 24
BlacKkKlansman 6
A Star is Born 5
Green Book 4
Black Panther 3
Vice 2 OUT!
Round 3
The Favourite 32
Roma 24
A Star is Born 6
BlacKkKlansman 6
Green Book 4
Black Panther 3 OUT!
Round 4
The Favourite 33
Roma 25
A Star is Born 6
BlacKkKlansman 6
Green Book 5 OUT!
Round 5
The Favourite 35
Roma 25
BlacKkKlansman 8
A Star is Born 7 OUT!
Round 6
The Favourite 37
Roma 26
BlacKkKlansman 12 OUT!
Round 7
The Favourite 45
Roma 30
I thought “The Favourite” was going to win based on the amount f people who were putting it ahead of “Roma” in their rankings. It doesn’t bode well for “Roma” if it goes head to head with TF t Oscars. But I am still not worried because TF has not won any major award. It even lost at BAFTA. That tells us that something is stopping people put it at the top of their rankings. I would be interested if that is case among the general public. But I d think that TF is “Roma” closest challenger so it does pose a threat.
It hasn’t yet lost a preferential ballot to Roma, though. And its main shot, if these simulations are to be believed, is precisely the preferential ballot. It probably can’t beat Roma in a straight vote, but seems to have far better chances of doing so in a preferential vote.
I don’t ignore these types of simulations. It’s worrying me because TF is second and I would have lessen “Roma” chances now. I am still confident but not as confident as before. Oscar voter secret ballot is slight showing me that there could a problem for “Roma”. They are not in love with TF but they like it enough and that coupled with resistance to Netflix might be enough for it to win. It would be unusual for TF to overcome a film like “Roma” because they share many similarities and you unusually a different type of film upsetting it. I just think if TF was liked well enough it would have won somewhere. And Netflix cannot be why “Roma” loses, surely.
“It would be unusual for TF to overcome a film like “Roma” because they share many similarities and you unusually a different type of film upsetting it.”
Very good point.
“I just think if TF was liked well enough it would have won somewhere. And Netflix cannot be why “Roma” loses, surely.”
I agree with all of that. 🙂 That’s why I’m expecting Roma to win, in the end. But I’m definitely rooting for my stats prediction. Roma would be a decent compromise. I wouldn’t have to change too much about my system if that won.
Although it did beat it for some critics awards, like I said, which weren’t preferential. Even though, obviously, way fewer people vote for those, it could still be relevant…
Thanks! I always look forward to everything you say 🙂
Thank you! 🙂 That’s very nice of you to say.
I’m a fan of this… And I love that Ryan got Eighth Grade right on the podcast. 🙂 Brilliant! I told Sammy yesterday, I think, that Green Book and BlacKkKlansman (the “favorites” according to most people) winning wouldn’t fit the pattern of the season, with so many huge surprises almost everywhere. (Just as Roma, the stats favorite, didn’t feel like it was winning to me, either. I didn’t have any particular feelings about If Beale Street Could Talk, because I didn’t think too much about that other category, since it was mostly irrelevant for my BP prediction.) This makes a lot more sense, somehow, even if neither of these was the stats favorite. Or perhaps because of it.
It’s also funny that I was right about Bathtubs Over Broadway. 🙂 I saw it had by far the best IMDb rating, plus the most awards attention of the nominees in that category, so I figured it had to be value to predict it. (Even if I only did it for my official prediction, and went insurance in the contest – I didn’t want to waste my insurance in the feature film categories by picking an upset in the third one.)
Stats that broke:
– The last movie without an Oscar nomination for screenplay to win the WGA was Bowling for Columbine (2002). Like Eighth Grade, it also didn’t have nominations for screenplay at BAFTA or the Golden Globes. Eighth Grade does have the Critics Choice nomination, which Bowling for Columbine didn’t, but there were 13 screenplay nominees this year at the Critics Choice (7 in its category), and only 4 back then (a single category).
– The last movie without a Best Picture Oscar nomination to win the WGA, like both Eighth Grade and Can You Ever Forgive Me? this year, was Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (2004). There were six more in the BFCA era (with only five nominees in Best Picture pre-2010, but at least a few of those clearly would have missed even with 8 or 9 BP slots). For me, this is weaker than the Scripter nomination stat, which held again, as it had for the last 14 WGA Adapted winners eligible for the Scripter – if nothing else, the logical connection to the Scripter nomination seems stronger than the one to the BP nomination.
– Apart from Her (2013), the last movie to win the WGA without a BAFTA nomination for screenplay was American Splendor (2003). So, yeah, Eighth Grade broke a lot of stats to win… Can You Ever Forgive Me?, on the other hand, only broke the Best Picture nomination stat, but upheld the Scripter nomination stat, instead, which BlacKkKlansman would have broken – CYEFM was, basically, a semi-close second-favorite on stats to If Beale Street Could Talk. (It’s one of the reasons I predicted it at BAFTA.) Still a surprising winner (Beale had the extra Globe nomination, which doesn’t have a strong stat attached to it, and also had the Critics Choice win – BlacKkKlansman had neither, even if it had the BP nomination), but definitely not a stats-buster, like Eighth Grade in the other category, or Bohemian Rhapsody in drama at the Globes.
Some observations:
– We now have on our hands an Oscar season in which not a single movie has won more than one major guild award (PGA/DGA/SAG/WGA/ACE), which is something that hadn’t happened since 1967! (Even though there were only the DGA, WGA and ACE until 1990…) Confirms how crazy this year is and how little consensus there is in the industry about what is actually the best movie of the year. (In 1967, the DGA winner, which was also the critical darling, the big favorite for the directing win, and a Golden Globe winner for drama – and later won BAFTA -, didn win Best Picture, while being snubbed for editing, like Roma, so perhaps this is a very good sign for that movie.)
– This, however, bears repeating: every DGA winner that’s won Best Picture in the 29 years of the PGA era has also won either the PGA, WGA, ACE or a SAG acting award. DGA winners that didn’t, and lost Best Picture: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (2000), Born on the Fourth of July (1989). [Relevant for: Roma]
– As does this: not one movie in the 57 years since the Eddies were first handed out has won Best Picture while having at least one Oscar snub for directing, screenplay, editing or acting (the latter meaning no acting nominations, of course) AND losing BOTH the ACE and WGA awards, while being eligible for both. (Movies like Birdman, A Man for All Seasons and Tom Jones – all snubbed for editing – were ineligible for the WGA. And, by the way, all three won screenplay at the Oscars, so they may well have won the WGA, had they been eligible.) [Relevant for: Roma, Green Book]
– Another stat I gave before, this time working against The Favourite: no movie since 1949 has won Best Picture without winning either the DGA, the WGA, the Golden Globe for picture (either category) or the NBR (or, instead of this last one, BAFTA) – this year, only Roma, Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody have won any of these.
I’ll need to look at precedents to give an unofficial Best Picture prediction (there’s now, after seeing the results of my simulation, as well as this Roma defeat to a movie not even nominated for BP at the WGA, at least some chance that this will be the same as my official one), but, in the meantime, as previously advertised (and, for the record, going with VERSION 2 of the system update, the one with an 0.5 points deduction for the WGA ineligibility, since, like I said at the time, it makes the most sense to me – sticking to the old system, as well as going with version 1, would have given the same result, and only version 3 would have given a different one):
Final official Best Picture prediction: The Favourite
I feel the need to add that I would also consider Best Picture wins by either Vice or Roma, especially, but also maybe Green Book and BlacKkKlansman (since it still is the movie with zero relevant snubs) as stats-valid. They’re just not what my system is predicting. A different interpretation of the stats could, perhaps, make any of these the favorite. I’m not sure. (Vice and Roma, almost definitely. I’m not sure about the other two. Seems like overkill to look into that before/unless one of them actually wins.) The only one with a possibly insurmountable stat to overcome is Green Book, because it’s not in the top six in the nominations ranking. (The stat with only one exception, Grand Hotel, 85 years ago.) BlacKkKlansman isn’t in the top 5, which is a stat that has prevented all but two movies (Grand Hotel and The Greatest Show on Earth) winning Best Picture in the 90 years of the Oscars. That seems relatively easier to break, though, since it at least has that one precedent in the last 70 years, in a year with 26 Oscar categories, as opposed to 12 the year Grand Hotel won. And, of course, at least BlacKkKlansman doesn’t have any OTHER stats to break, unlike Green Book. So, maybe my current rankings would look something like this (based on stats and logic):
1. The Favourite (weakness shown in the fewest key categories – picture/PGA, acting/SAG Ensemble and directing/DGA, but definitely not writing or editing; Roma has shown weakness in writing and editing instead of directing… perhaps only a minor difference, and perhaps not…)
2. Roma (not yet sure which of these two I think is more likely to win – it was Roma until a few days ago, but relevant things have happened since, and I don’t just mean the WGA)
The unlikely but still possible ones:
3. BlacKkKlansman (for reasons already discussed, above, though I don’t really see it happening, intuitively, same as with the two below it)
4. Vice (it remains one of the strongest four, at the very least, stats-wise, the front runners are all weak enough, and it faces no unbeatable stats)
5. Green Book (I just don’t believe in it much – especially since it didn’t win the WGA… but I had already said a while ago I no longer believed in its chances)
And the ones I definitely think won’t win (and why):
– A Star is Born (No movie has ever won Best Picture after being snubbed for both directing and editing, as Grand Hotel and Wings had no editing category available to get nominated in, and, again, I suspect both would have had good chances to get into that, though who knows?!)
– Bohemian Rhapsody (No movie in the last 85 years has won without directing and screenplay nominations, plus the same nominations ranking stat Green Book has to beat, also 85 years-strong – definitely seems like too much.)
– Black Panther (No movie in the history of the Oscars has won after being snubbed for directing, editing and screenplay.)
So, I guess I’m calling this too, now: in addition to Bohemian Rhapsody and Black Panther, A Star is Born also can’t win Best Picture.
I suppose I could sort of live with a completely stats-busting winner, since one of those does happen once every 50 years, or whatever. (The last one was, really, still Hamlet, in 1949.) Not that it wouldn’t be very annoying. Anyway, enough of that – let’s just see what happens, first!…
I shall return with the results of the precedents analysis, the usual percentages (if I can actually come up with them – seems unusually difficult this year) for all of the nominees and, of course, the aforementioned unofficial prediction. Either today or tomorrow, probably.
“So, I guess I’m calling this too, now: in addition to Bohemian Rhapsody and Black Panther, A Star is Born also can’t win Best Picture.”
Even though we knew this for a while now, it still feels weird to read.
“…it was Roma until a few days ago, but relevant things have happened since, and I don’t just mean the WGA”
What else are you referring to?
I don’t know how WGA made “Roma” less favourite. I think it pretty closed the door for any else, for me. WGA-BFCA BD/BP. Add DGA and it’s gold 100 stat.
A loss at the WGA always means a movie is weaker. Same as a PGA loss. Of course movies still win in spite of that. (And Roma probably will.) Because other movies lose other important awards – like DGA, SAG, maybe even BAFTA or Critics Choice… But the fact remains that Roma had a shot at winning the WGA (CLEARLY if Eighth Grade, with zero Oscar nominations, could win, so could Roma, not to mention all the stats which prove it could have) and didn’t, thus indicating it’s not as strong as it could have been, had it won.
I don’t know about weaker but it shows a film isn’t as strong as it could be. You don’t have win a certain award to win BP. You just have to not do worse than your opponents. That’s always the number one rule. It clearly helps TF in screenplay more than anything else. But we could have already predicted that outcome and I don’t believe it changes anything for BP. It’s the BD winner versus the screenplay winner, as is usually the case. I think BD will come out on top because TF has not won anything.
“But we could have already predicted that outcome”
But we could’t have known for sure. 🙂 There was always a chance Roma would win screenplay there, ESPECIALLY with the big favorite not eligible. Like Argo (which even beat both screenplay winners in its category for that) or The Departed did, despite winning none of the other three major precursors. That’s why I think it’s proven weaker by the WGA loss. Probably not much weaker (and it most likely won’t be decisive), but somewhat…
In addition to discovering (or perhaps rediscovering) those must-win-the-WGA stats, my simulation. And Ryan confirms on the most recent podcast that, indeed, Roma does NOT pick up many ballots on redistribution AT ALL. It loses ground all the way. It’s still winning, apparently, because it has so many first place votes to begin with, but I’m not sure that’ll be the case at the Oscars, too. It probably will be, but it seems less certain than in an online environment.
My mind boggles not only with the analysis but the energy and focus required by you to put it all together. Bravo. I’m not sure what to takeaway from it. I’d be a fool to ignore the stats. I also like to tune into my instinct on categories based on the here and now. This set of competitors in this climate and culture. Perception plays its part too. It is an impossible task to get inside the minds of 8000 people. Especially a changing demographic within the Academy. And the preferential ballot. Best Picture feels to me like it could literally go any which way. Why? Simply because it can.
Wow, thanks! Wait ’till you see what I just spent something like 15 hours on!… 🙂 [The precedents analysis I posted recently, in the comments sections to the two most recent Sasha pieces.]
“It is an impossible task to get inside the minds of 8000 people.”
Exactly. That’s what the stats help so much with. (They usually help EVEN MORE than they do this year, obviously – a mess like this, when it’s hard to even figure out the top 3, let alone what the #1 favorite is, is basically unheard of.)
One remark: IMO “Bohemian Rhapsody” should be treated as the movie WITH directing nomination. I’m pretty sure that if the name of its director was different than Bryan Singer then its director WOULD BE NOMINATED.
Highly unlikely. What do you have to base that on? And anyway what difference would that make? It is still not nominated for director so it cannot win. Why didn’t it get nominated for screenplay? was it because Singer wrote it?
I think so too. If Fletcher had directed the entire movie or half of it ( I don’t know the DGA rules) he would have been nominated for Director.
Even with directing+DGA nominations, it would still be a movie outside the top 5 in nominations at the Oscars (2 exceptions in 90 years) AND screenplay+WGA snubs. It might be a somewhat more stats-valid winner then, but not really. I would still be rather confident ruling it out.
So you’re going for “The Favourite”. I suspect that you know you are not going to for the stats favourite. I am confident on “Roma” and BAFTA and WGA confirmed it for me.
I am going for the stats favorite according to my current interpretation. There may well be a better interpretation out there which says Roma is the stats favorite. I do not dispute this for one second. 🙂 I’ve said as much before. But, for now, I have to assume the correct interpretation is the one my system gives. (Otherwise, why use the system at all?!) Even if my expectation is that Roma will more likely win. If it does, I will obviously have to try and come up with an improved interpretation starting next year. Again… 🙂 I expect to have to do that.
The Favourite would break two stats that are hard for me to accept: missing SAG Ensemble (while The Shape of Water overcame this, it had PGA/DGA, which is a huge difference); and having won no major guild or precursor prior to the Oscars.
The “stats” that Roma has to break that you flagged above (no DGA winner that hasn’t won another major guild has gone onto win BP and no film snubbed for Film Editing that’s also lost the WGA and ACE has gone onto win BP) make some level of sense to me: Roma is not a “writing-driven” film or an “editing-driven” film. It is a director’s vision with cinematography and acting at the forefront. It also was never going to do well at the PGA (I never came close to predicting it).
The “unofficial” stats that Roma has to break, namely the fact that no foreign language film and no Netflix film has ever won BP, make some level of sense to me as well: the Academy’s membership has changed radically in the past 3-5 years and they seem more prepared to accept a Netflix foreign language than they historically might have been.
Plus, all things considered, BFCA + HFPA FLF/Director + DGA + BAFTA (where The Favourite could have easily triumphed given its 7 wins) is a solid indication of affection. It’s one of the weakest line-ups of precursors wins for a BP winner in a while, but it’s a crazy year.
“The Favourite” won ACE and it probably would win WGA (if it was eligible). These are major guilds. 🙂
That’s a good point that TF would’ve won the WGA. But it’s still not enough to win WGA alone. It needed to win BAFTA, GG, BFCA or one of three guilds. The only major award it won is BAFTA screenplay.
It was enough for Braveheart.
That one’s on different planet altogether.
It also won actress and supporting actress at BAFTA. Those also count as major awards.
Yes, but as we know acting is a lot less consequential for BP than screenplay and BD.
Undoubtedly. But I’m sure it still has an impact…
ACE is helpful, but I’m eternally skeptical about the “it would have won WGA if it had been eligible” argument, so basically, The Favourite has a worse guild count than Roma, Green Book, Black Panther, and Bohemian Rhapsody. The only reason that it’s probably in 3rd for BP is that the latter two have tough stats to beat on the way to the podium.
In terms of major guild wins, it’s actually won as many as Roma and Black Panther – one. If you count acting wins at SAG, too, then Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody have won two each, otherwise they, too, are on one major guild win.
I would love the favourite to win, but it’s 3rd I’d say now that blackkk lost WGA, behind Roma and Green Book.
If the favourite couldn’t win plurality at BAFTA after winning 7 awards, it’s not winning preferential at AMPAS. No way.
Virtually no one else is predicting The Favourite.
Final Gold Derby prefix-
Experts
Roma 23
Green Book 2
Black Panther 2
The Favorite 0
Editors
Roma 6
Green Book 1
Black Panther 1
BlackKK 1
The Favourite 0
Top 24 Users
Roma 19
Green Book 4
A Star is born! 1
The Favourite 0
All star 24 (only 23 votes)
Roma 20
Green Book 2
BlackKK 1
The Favourite 0
There’s been years like The Revenant & 3B where the gold derby favourite lost but it lost to the 2nd place getter, not something no one predicted.
One might argue that The Favourite is especially strong in the preferential ballot. We need a bit more evidence to proclaim that though.
I think it’s much more divisive than Roma. Don’t get me wrong it’s my favourite nominee, but it won’t win
PGA was the place where a flashier film could have won the preferential.
I’m just saying because it performed exceedingly well on both Sasha’s facebook poll (that she mentions in the podcast) and in Claudiu’s vote. We’ll have to wait until the official AwardsDaily ballot for a bit bigger sample size, but for now, it seems to benefit from it.
It’s also currently winning my own BP simulation (official results forthcoming). I can definitely see it losing on a plurality to Roma at BAFTA but winning on preferential at the Oscars.
But the problem for TF is that it hasn’t won ANYWHERE. How can you predict a film that has lost everywhere? It has won zero major awards except at BAFTA where it won screenplay. That’s exactly the same as Blackkk which has far stats to break for BP win.
I’m not predicting it. I’m just saying I wouldn’t be shocked.
Despite what I wrote I think it is in second place and I wouldn’t be shocked either. I was thinking in my head why it is doing so well on preferential and would worry me because it is second and ticks a lot of boxes for a BP winner (screenplay, critics love and no stat’s to beat at the Oscar and only really DGA overall. So I can see that it might but I wouldn’t predict it because it hasn’t won anything major yet. It’s peculiar season so we might have a film win BP without any major wins.
Crash also had zero precursor wins for picture. (SAG Ensemble, while a useful precursor to count, is not that.) Same for Braveheart. So, apparently, one sometimes SHOULD predict movies that have won nothing major for picture to win the BP Oscar. And this is just in the BFCA era. You could make a case for at least a couple more winners between 1949 and 1989 having won no major picture precursors… There’s also Million Dollar Baby, which only had the DGA win. Which is, perhaps, more important than WGA and ACE wins, but, even so. No precursor wins for picture. Did not win Best Picture/Best Film anywhere major before the Oscars. Not at the Globes, not at the Critics Choice, not at the PGA.
The Favourite would have won the WGA, if eligible, this is almost certain now (if it loses the original screenplay Oscar – and I would be shocked -, only then will I reconsider), and it won ACE. That’s precisely what Braveheart and Crash had, give or take a SAG Ensemble award. Also, The Favourite won plenty of minor critics prizes for Best Picture. It’s legit, even if clearly not as much as the average BP winner. (Which is why it’s probably not the most likely to win. But there’s definitely enough precedent for it to win in an upset, in the major precursor wins sense of the term.)
“That’s exactly the same as Blackkk which has far stats to break for BP win.”
🙂 Come on… It won ACE. Klansman has zero major guild wins. It won two BFCA awards. Klansman won zero. It won a Golden Globe. Klansman won zero. It won SIX other BAFTA’s in addition to screenplay. Klansman won zero. I think there’s a pretty monumental difference… And, to me, Klansman’s nominations ranking stat (98% over 90 years) is more important than the DGA and SAG snub stats, put together. The numbers back this up. I’m sure you have some logical reasoning for why that’s not the case, but I’m also pretty sure I’ll disagree with it, once you tell me what it is. 🙂
“Crash” dominated screenplay everywhere and had support from two major guilds.
Did it also dominate the critical phase for screenplay? Anyway, The Favourite may not be dominating screenplay, but it’s still winning it. Other BP winners that won screenplay after losing 2/3 of the Globes, Critics Choice and BAFTA for screenplay:
12 Years a Slave
Argo (lost all of them – won the WGA, for which The Favourite was ineligible)
The Hurt Locker (lost the same two as The Favourite)
The Departed (lost all three, again)
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (lost the same two)
A Beautiful Mind
Just in the BFCA era. Pretty long list. Most of those won the DGA, but that’s the case with most BP winners, no matter the sample.
Roma also has to break the SAG Ensemble stat and, in addition, it has no acting nominations at SAG OR BAFTA, which are also strong stats. (Especially BAFTA.) Much worse than The Favourite. Of course, its editing snub is arguably less powerful than TF’s DGA snub. But, overall, all those things considered, I don’t see an advantage for either in the stats department. I’m genuinely not sure which I’d go with, knowing about only these snub stats, gun to my head…
“while The Shape of Water overcame this, it had PGA/DGA, which is a huge difference”
Exactly – which Roma only has half of. Gravity and The Revenant (and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon) also only had half of that combo, and lost. What lone PGA or DGA winner has won BP without the SAG Ensemble nomination? None. So, in that sense too, The Favourite (which, by the way, has the Braveheart precedent of WGA+ACE wins, since it OBVIOUSLY would have won the WGA, if eligible, given that Eighth Grade beat the other BP nominees) is again no worse off.
“Plus, all things considered, BFCA + HFPA FLF/Director + DGA + BAFTA (where The Favourite could have easily triumphed given its 7 wins) is a solid indication of affection.”
Absolutely, that’s its best argument. It’s the biggest part of why it’s still the movie I expect to win most often of the bunch, even if my official prediction is The Favourite.
I agree on Green Book being probably weaker than I thought. It should at least have won the WGA to solidify there´s enough passion behind it. But that´s good news for my favorite film (and also my prediction), Roma – I can´t see The Favourite winning, at least not Best Picture (but probably best original screenplay over Green Book, which would make sense, by the way, because the Academy pretty often awards the more ambitious candidates in their screenplay categorys)!
I would be pretty shocked if The Favourite didn’t win screenplay. I said that after BAFTA, as well – but even more so now, after this happened at the WGA.
Happy for Eighth Grade. I think the Vallelonga mess likely made Green Book fall-out of 1st place with these writers.
Happy for Can You Ever Forgive Me? Don’t know WHAT any of this means for the Oscars. Still gonna bang away on the Blackkklansman winning train, but I sure am not sold on it.
What a year. Yeeesh.
I think The Favourite will win Original. BKK is the safe bet for Adapted b/c they tend to pick the BP nominee. Had Beale Street won WGA, it might give me pause. CYEFM is too “small and personal” of a story to win the big prize. And since BKK is one of the bigger BP nominees (not missing anything), they might want to award it one consolation prize.
WGA and Oscar Screenplay are two different races. The latter’s outcome depends on factors that don’t exist in the WGA race.
Agree 100% with your predictions and reasoning for these.
I think they actually just like Eighth Grade better than GB, as they should.
I think Green Book not being as good a film as Eighth Grade likely made Green Book fall out of first place. The WGA tends to award films with a little actual edge and, you know, ORIGINALITY (Get Out, Grand Budapest Hotel, Her, Zero Dark Thirty, Inception) in the ORIGINAL screenplay category. Green Book is a sleek, well-crafted Hollywood script stitched together from other movies and common predictable tropes.
Eighth Grade, as a piece of writing, in an impressive achievement in empathy and detail on a subject that seems impenetrable — the honest life of a teenager — and a subject commonly written with little depth or nuance.
Green Book script is stitched together from other movies and common predic table tropes ? Did you ever hear the Green Book tapes ? A wonderful life affirming film comes out of the Toronto international film festival and the knives come out . Where did all this hate come from . It seems that every other day there was a hit piece . Netflix must be enjoying all this .
Respectfully, as has suddenly been noticed by the trades, the utter collapse of Star is Born’s campaign is actually a more interesting story than the “poor Green Book” pieces. An Academy petrified that “hits” with “stars” weren’t winning major Oscars, and ASIB literally checked every single box and it’s primed to go 1 for 8 on Sunday.
Yes, 1 for 8 is what I’m predicting.
So not liking something is a ‘hit piece’? Who decided that Green Book needed to be marched down the center aisle in a coronation, collecting every award on the planet? And what in the hell that that have to do with ‘the Green Book tapes’? This is about the quality of the film, not the accuracy of it.
Five nominations says that Green Book’s groundswell of support was overstated.
In my 30 years of watching Oscars, I have never seen a bigger group of drama queens than the Green Book Cavalry, riding over the horizon anytime someone dares to criticize it.
The Timothee Brigades last year were pretty bad.
If Green Book had won WGA, I think they could have “poor Ben’d” their way to BP. But that’s a major miss, more so because Favourite wasn’t even in the field.
Oh yes I must have mentally blocked that out!
Unless there’s a major faceplant, next year is Scorcese versus Tarantino. And boy howdy, if one thinks that debates over the historical accuracy and tastefulness of a Don Shirley film causes this much fainting couch action, wait until we’re debating a movie that purportedly shows the Tate murders.
Never assume anything about the quality of a film before premiering, regardless of the director or pedigree. Thats perhaps the biggest fallacy of oscar watchers.
Thus my “faceplant” qualifier. I think Tarantino’s desire for a Best Director Oscar is pretty well known and he’ll pull out all the stops with this one.
Often it’s not even about the quality. Many times films that are both hyped and good miss the Best Picture nomination, like we’ve seen this year with Beale Street, First Man and Widows, to name some.
Oh, I dunno…I remember the wailing and moaning and gnashing of teeth by Avatar fanboys who were incensed that a piddly little war movie like The Hurt Locker could be any kind of threat to James Cameron’s accomplishment, not to mention THL’s director being (a) a woman, and (b) Cameron’s ex-wife at that. (Cue hand/staple/forehead gesture) Funny, but Cameron seemed pretty happy to me when Kathryn Bigelow won; I think he may have hinted he voted for her, or at the very least decided “Hey, if I can’t win, at least she deserves it.”
(On a related note, I don’t know how the actual voting turned out–how does one find that out, anyway?–but I tend to think that, had it not be Jeff Bridges’ year for a career award, Jeremy Renner would very likely have won instead. No shade on Bridges, mind you–he’s a terrific actor, and seems to be a hell of a good guy to boot–but I do hope Renner eventually manages to win some day with a truly kickass role.)
Its accuracy contributes to its quality, deepens its emotional truth.
EG is one of best and should be BP instead of garbage like BR, GB and “”Vice”. It’s in every way than those three.
I love Bo Burnham’s speech. Was he ever a comedian?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZKHiqYYiBc
He is a comedian, I think.
Yeah, I just Googled. And he does look familiar. Good for him! Winning two Guilds for his first movie, directing AND writing.
Give it up for Elsie and Bo.
I picked Roma and Beale Street to win the WGA. So obviously, I was completely wrong. But my picks were really non-Green Book and non-BlacKKKlansman. And I chose the closest alternatives.
My rationale for not picking GB and BKK were that WGA (and AMPAS too) almost always pick screenplays that are written by one person (an auteur) or a two-person writing team (who collaborate together for the final product), and not screenplays written by what seem like a committee. GB and BKKK committed that “sin”.
So while I was wrong in the choices that I picked, my rationale still holds true with the winners Eighth Grade and CYEFM.
In addition to all that, I also thought GB (even if it were written by one person) was just too coarse of a product for a refined guild as this writing body.
EDIT: By “committee” I mean that a screenplay was optioned from a writer(s), then get rewritten by another person or team, and/or then by the film’s director.
Birdman won with four writers.
I said “almost always”. And it didn’t win WGA (as it were ineligible).
Yep you were correct with your instincts about the WGA going for the upmarket choices. I was pleased they bypassed the good but not great Emperor’s New Clothes picks of Roma and Beale Street for two genuinely outstanding screenplays.
That’s an interesting theory about committee vs. auteur screenplays.
I picked GB and BKKK and was obviously wrong on both counts and your theory may well be one of the factors. We (or at least I) tend to look for reasons “outside” these awards that will influence the awards, but the overarching reasons for these two wins may be, God bless ’em, that these were simply the best, or strong contenders for the best, among the nominees. Wouldn’t that be refreshing!
I learned that theory when “Her” defeated American Hustle a few years back. You would think the latter being the Oscars juggernaut would be a shoo-in for that award (not to mention giving the multiple nominee David O. Russell a consolation prize), but auteur Spike Jonze with his “odd and weird” script won both WGA and then the Oscar. (DOR took over the AH script from Eric Warren Singer and rewrote it — without collaborating w/ Singer — for the film).
And as to what you’re saying “the best” winning WGA. It’s not overarching. As we talked a few days back, I think WGA being writers is one of the more considered groups when picking their winners. Remember, they are writers, lonely souls who more likely value creativity over industry politics.
Awesome! 🙂 Good to know.
well that didn’t help at all ahah
Roma is the front runner. DIrector is almost locked, Picture too. But I wouldnt discard Lee or Green Book / Rhapsody yet
Well deserved win for Can You Ever Forgive Me. It absolutely should have been nominated for Best Picture.
Very happy for The Americans. A tally of Actor and Writing from the Emmys (plus nominations for Drama Series and Actress); Drama Series, Actor and Supporting Actor from the BFCA; Drama Series from the HFPA; a nomination for Drama Ensemble from SAG; and now a win from the WGA is so deserved for one of the best shows of the contemporary era (and one that was unjustly ignored for its entire run).
In other news, here’s a snapshot of the final guild/precursor breakdown (prior to CDG):
Roma [BFCA, DGA, BAFTA]
Green Book [HFPA, PGA, GMS]
Black Panther [SAG, ADG]
Bohemian Rhapsody [HFPA, ACE, CAS, MPSE]
The Favourite [ACE, ADG]
A Star Is Born (2018) [GMS, MAHGA]
Vice [MAHGA]
Somewhat surprisingly, BlacKkKlansman is the only BP nominee with no guild/precursor wins.
Not nominated for BP:
Eighth Grade [GMS, WGA]
Can You Ever Forgive Me? [WGA]
Cold War [ASC]
Somewhat surprisingly, BlacKkKlansman is the only BP nominee with no guild/precursor wins.
Like I said in my capsule review of the movie a few days ago: Jack of all trades, master of none.
What is GMS?
Guild of Music Supervisors, perhaps?
Correct.
Honestly, my response to all of this is not so much “gee, this year is so weird!” but rather, “wow, I love the fact that different things are winning different awards this year. More! More!”
The shock winner or the stats busting winner is why Oscar is great. If anyone wants a real culprit for the decline of Oscar it’s the freaking guild award overkill that saps most of the drama out of Oscar night.
As much as I’m happy for Eighth Grade and even Can You Ever Forgive Me?, I’d rather have seen some clarity, finally. What’s the point of predicting the Oscar if all I can say for Best Picture during the season is “eh, who knows?”.
Yes, but WGA definitely showed softer support for Green Book than previously suspected (buh buh buh buh PGA they were saying). I think we’ll see something akin to BAFTA where Roma will win BP with the same category wins and Favourite wins the most awards of the night.
I think it will be very like BAFTA in those respects. Still not sure that Picture will replicate though.
How will The Favourite win the most awards of the night? Original Screenplay, Production Design, and Costume Design (all of which are far from sure things), plus Weisz and Film Editing? Roma will likely win four, so it needs five.
It can’t win Make-up like at BAFTA, and Close almost certainly wins Actress.
Coleman upsets Close
I think if it wins Actress, Supporting Actress, and Original Screenplay, it’s a serious dark horse for BP. No other film would have so many above-the-line wins.
It did give us clarity if you are paying attention. By the spreading the love to films not in contention, it pretty much sealed the deal for “Roma”.
It might’ve helped Roma. But it wasn’t clarity in the sense of “now Roma has 2 guild so it’s a clear frontrunner”. It just made the whole thing more uncertain, which makes the apparent (weak) frontrunner a bit stronger.
I agree with you Dan. For me it points to a diverse array of interesting movies that have impressed different folks in different quarters. There is some overlap in some guilds but considering the litany of commenters year in year out bemoaning the ‘herd’ group think accusation when the same films and actors win everything, I welcome this panoply of winners and a hard to predict, tension filled telecast.
Agree with this. Spread the wealth, I say. It’s just more healthy.
Ok my review for “Green Book” first it actually remarkable in best possible way you have two films contrasting one another yet reflecting same era same dilemma in american history- namely, both “green book” and “blackkklansman” deal with segregation of america between the north and the south in the late 60’s-70’s and if you were to put them side by side wow what fascinating contrast of film styles and angles on similar racial issues it would be.
I point out there real risk sadly oscar vote best pic between these two would be split…unless ‘green book’ somehow wins screenplay.
I loved “Green Book” cos much like it film title is was simple premise with heck of lot of real challenges and complexities two main characters were set to confront…other than ‘odd couple’ initially to which i must say Viggo Mortensen you swear he was americo-italian (unless is he actually?) that how awesome his performance is…and man if Rami Malek was not competing for best actor, i give it to Viggo without questions why isn’t his role being talked about more? He every bit disappeared in his role as an italian- brawny family man living in rough neighbourhoods of the bronx in the states with potentially well indeed short fuse dont you all think? no in my mind i give him oscar best actor in a heartbeat great he was nominated.
“Green Book” is on rarity i agree with critics (well funnily thing when critics not manipulating way they see apoloitiical intentioned themes movies through political agenda- type sphere) i actually back what they like trouble is they do what i stated in brackets far too much.
But there is a fine distinction between films political agenda and a cultural- communal theme. Indeed the cultural challenges two men face…as they go futher and further deeper south further from home…they realize extent these two unlikely road mates need each other…what starts as business agreement the way Peter Farrelly and co. show how they come to embrace each other further journey takes them from- then to- home…from business partners -to road buddies- to best of friends- is delight, it powerful, moving but drama is not overplayed yet it poignant and works beautifully to filmmakers intent.
Yet it still as a film carries gravitas through only handful scenes to capture the daunting ambitious deeply admirable task of what Dr. Don Shirley seeks to accomplish: to showcase that a black man can be every bit as successful and talented as a white man in divided ignorant white america…it sad but reminder as if you were to put both blackklansman and green book as contrasting styles buit same struggle for justice and rights of blacks be respect as they respect whites if everyone learn to get along..find common ground..
I love the way as both Viggo and Mahershala characters through their friendship learn to embrace each others lessons in their own journey in life seperately of what they observed experienced in time before these two met.
There is a reluctant chemistry that becomes complete by time that defining scene that really sees Mahershala Ali performance become raw really authentic..in truth it Viggo performance that should be more hyped lot more than it is…given extent he had to put on accent doesnt sit naturally to actor himself.
As for Mahershala Ali his calming grounded striagh tforward demeanor complements overtly talkative bombastic Tony Lip but i admit given Dr. Don Shirley to fill on those very big shoes given what he achieved for black people and to show just why (though really in ideal world in 70’s in the states it should never have come to that for blacks) but given importance of real Dr, Don Shirleys contribution to not just black but american society in culture tradition of arts and music…it really was vital mahershala ali nailed performance true to the performers real demeanor .
I dont recall in oscar contender movie of a powerful duo to share powerful msg that more than msg film it journey a timeless reminder no matter what era we were raised whether 70’s, 90’s or even today that no matter who you are or what misconcieved limitations ignorants in society may have you should always be embraced for your humanity through what talent you bring and how you treat people..not by colour or race or religion that but one attribute who you are..
We must find a way to get along..i admit i was fearful this film would play to left wing a bit but no sometimes i can be wrong..and i so glad i was..
If Green Book does win, it transcends racist ideals to reflect on how we must find a way to cooperate even though world around us seemingly in conflict as muslims are with jews (some of them sadly anyway), protestants may conflict with catholics (i still think this happens too unfortunately sometimes), hindus clash with buddhists (india v. pakistan), north korea clash with south korea- ultimately what we can do for others can make huge impression on those around us and beyond.
This is damn straight if black panther not to win green book should.
I want to review blackkklansman but to do justice i devote this post just to green book.
My list starts to take shape. And on that my only flaw is that i actually woulda liked green book to go for longer- woulda loved few instances after Dr. Don Shirley learned to stand up for his rights publicly or some other extra twists turns on journey but minor issue i provide my critics ratings next to films i seen:
my list: update of superrior oscar race would appeal more to audiences with 10 nominees
Black Panther- 96% Black Panther- 13 noms best pic, director, actor, supp actor
Green Book- 94% Green Book- 8 noms -inc cinematorgraphy/editing, director
Blackkklansman- 92% Stan and Ollie- 12 noms, pic, director, script and both actors
Bohemian Rhapsody- 92% Mary Poppins Returns- 11 noms inc. pic, director,script,
actress, supp actor
The Favourite Bohemian Rhapsody- 10 noms add direct, cinematography,
screenplay
Star is Born Blackkklansman- 7 noms- add actor crying out loud
Vice- 50% On the Basis of Sex- 7 noms- actress, screenplay, picture
Roma The Favourite- 10 noms bout right
A Private War- 6 noms inc actress, picture, screenplay,
editing
The Frontrunner- 7 noms- inc actor, screenplay, picture,
editing,
so your thoughts my review of green book and my thoughts on whether you agree or not with my shortlist of 10 count them oscar ten oscar contenders replacing some less worthy ones in list as it stands? which of ten i mentioned would you take out? what would you replace them with..academy have to get real here they need to do something else unprecedented and have 3 oscar contenders having double figure nominations and average no of 6 nominations per best pic contender and to diversify even more while bearing in mind audience demands…dont you think? if not why not?
You give one of the most astute appreciations of “Green Book” I’ve read. You explain the movie’s artistic and social dimensions — and, crucially, how they overlap — quite well. You see the insights in the writing, but also understand that only two fine actors could put this material over and get people to relate to it. You’ve understood the movie’s power, why it stays with people. It’s so simple it shouldn’t work. But because it’s so direct, it does, on most people anyway, or so it seems to me.
I will never understand why Eighth Grade and Can You Ever Forgive Me? never became best picture contenders … two fabulous movies …
Thrilled that they got recognized last night.
And who earned $21 million between them, also a prerequisite to getting a BP nomination (13m and 8m respectively).
Box office is a pre-requisite to earning a nomination? What’s the minimum figure required?
Because nowadays, the less $ you make, the better your chance of getting a BP and BD nomination. In the Indie Spirits Redux era the Oscars are currently in, that is.
So, are you suggesting that a minimum box office be required for eligibility?
Maybe you should be more concerned at The Good Place’s crappy ratings …
The show got renewed for a 4th season 2 months before season 3 ended. Ratings + DVR 7 are just fine, than you.
I’m really happy the guilds and the major precursors are spreading the wealth. I pretty much hate sweeps.
yea but big issue with that is that you go to other extreme..best pic winners only win one or two oscars …academy must not go to extremes oh and last major sweep was the kings speech before that return of the king sweeps are rare you know…but films win best pic only win one or two oscars average and at most as been case last several years honestly? that absolute waste of oscat recognition for any film and studio backs them..
Slumdog won eight out of ten nominations the year it won BP, only losing in one category because it had two song nominations.
There is nothing wrong with a BP winner only winning two or three Oscars. Death to sweeps.
that an ignorant remark when i pointed out as FACT since 2000 absolute domination sweeps have only happened two- three times at MOST in that time.
Furthermore be very careful how you classify a sweep. Most common sense people would beg to differ you know.
If you care to consider oscars history decade by decade, hardly any films won as little as 3 academy awards maximum.
Furthermore, by definition be careful how you classify a ‘sweep’ it a sweep at two levels:
1. Will film that been nominated for best picture, director, screenplay, actor/actress dominate all big 4 categories?
2. Or, will a film that has double figure nominations but not necessary all of picture director and screenplay and actor/ actress (take away 2 of those) but for instance, if a film wins say, 7/10 oscars it nominated for, or at highest end 10/13 oscar wins, then you call that a ‘sweep’.
This year there be not a sweep in which case i advise you to regard it as a ‘big, just’ win.
AS i said before for oscar winner to have relevance to film goers beyond the ensuring year or so and last far longer in film goers whom care about oscars anyway…for these filmgoers take not of what oscar says…film should win the following:
Either:
1- Picture, director, actor/actress/supp actor/supp acterss one artistic (say costume design and one technical (say editing) win for total of 5 wins (this is good no. cos a film imparticular that one this minimum and still unforgettable decades on was the Sound of Music – should won double amount it ended up winning it was still is that great a movie)
2. – Picture, screenplay, actor or /actress/ or supp actor/supp acterss one artistic (say costume design and one technical (say editing) win for total of 5 wins
3- Picture and technical artistic wins 2 tech wins, say editing and sound and then costume design and set design again 5 oscar wins at minimum.
Consider this: AMPAS by its namesake stands for: Academy of Motion Picture Arts AND Sciences- therefore i put to you all isn’t it logical that for best picture winner to be unforgettable beyond a year or two to last decade worth of impressions from time of release shouldnt ,as academys official full title suggest, that any best picture winner get recognition for it technical, artistic, performance and directing/ production value/ merits?
If you take away one of these values you simply dont have a complete film and fact is films from whichever decade from ‘wings’, to ‘how green was my valley’ , to ‘From here to Eternity”, to “Ben Hur”, to “bridge over the river kwai”, to “sound of music”, to “Patton”, to “Schindler’s List”, to “Gladiator” to “Kings Speech”, incidentally these films roughly cover standout each decade since oscars inception..
Just imagine would these films for those avid oscar watchers of overall audience that views them believes in oscar reflecting public choice, informing public as to films to watch the most as academy used to lead the way set example for several decades before 2nd half of 2000’s thus far anyway, can one imagine how less interested people at the time to this day would be on least some of film titles i mentioned?
5 minimum non- negotiable..or it total waste of film goers time and awful missed opportuntiy from academy to demonstrate strong decisive leadership and some conviction.
Finally i point out since preferential ballot you get far lower returns for best picture winner and it done NOTHING to arrest it slide to medoicrity and worse in it audience ratings..people want public want strong film organisation leadership backing in one or two horse race …it proven failure after over 5 years about of preferential ballot…for films that win with barely exception in that time – maybe one or so have not been forgotten or referenced since the year they won. ok maybe two occassions they reflected on but how will lesser oscar winners be judged in a decade time in scope of broader film history?
I guarantee you people will remember winners like “Gladiator” , “Return of the King”, “the Hurt Locker”, “The Kings Speech”, and perhaps two others i cant remember at the most, more than the other larger handful since turn of the century why? these films got publics attention and even more so after they won big and won minimum 5 oscars inc combinations i outlined here. quanitty is quality when it comes to oscar wins
How did you come up with the magic number of five wins = worthy film
The Godfather and Midnight Cowboy only won three Oscars, so by your “logic” they are hopelessly unworthy winners.
For multiple reasons, sweeping days are gone. In fact, these days, if a movie is sweeping early in the evening, expect it to lose the BP prize. (LLL, Mad Max, Gravity).
Me too. I like when a masterpiece is rightly recognised but is always better when different films are rewarded. Hate when one or two films sweep.
The fact that Lee Israel is a textured but often unlikeable character who forged the letters of people who were Hollywood icons might have had some effect (at least to older members). And the film is very offbeat.
1. Part of me really wonders if Grant springs the shock in Supporting Actor
2. Melissa McCarthy is now a two-time Oscar nominee and let’s be real, who saw THAT coming when she was on Gilmore Girls?
The thing is, everybody (myself included) just automatically predicts Ali because he is dominating the precursors, without considering the fact that he really just won. I have a feeling his position is a bit more shaky than it looks, but since he lost the BAFTA, Grant’s ship has probably sailed. (Although Ali did not win the BAFTA two years ago.)
I think ONE of the supporting categories is going to have a massive surprise. I’d been on the de Tavira train, but this WGA loss by Green Book is making me rethink a lot of predictions.
Don’t think Green Book can win BP without the WGA win. I think it now loses Original Screenplay to The Favourite (or Roma in a sweep, or a shocker like Schrader) and it likely won’t win BP with just a Supporting Actor win (especially with a Director snub).
Green Book perhaps can’t win the Oscar for best picture without a screenplay win but unless all the writers guild are Academy members and the rest of the membership look at wga result and vote accordingly I don’t see a nexus there. And yes it would be odd but not impossible for it to win for Ali and then picture. No individual film looks like winning more than two or three Oscars.
Yeah, I suppose a group not made up of only writers could be more inclined to give Green Book screenplay… Still, I expect it’s The Favourite.
We don’t know by how many votes Green Book might have lost the screenplay, I still think it’s not dead at the oscars…
Yep I still think Green Book is winning Screenplay (and Picture) at the Oscars. The fact Eighth Grade wasn’t even nominated at the Oscars shows the crossover is pretty insignificant in the scheme of things.
So WGA cleared some things for me but please don’t insult me if you don’t agree. I think it solidified Roma’s status as the frontrunner and The Favourite is much stronger now in Original Screenplay.
Yes to both. I think it’s lining up to replicate the BAFTAS, with Roma taking BP with the same four awards and Favourite leading with 6 wins including actress and SA
I think the talking point that Green Book has this groundswell of populist love took a huge hit here. Since Eighth Grade wasn’t nominated for Oscar and Favourite wasn’t eligible, you can only think GB is no higher than second on the depth chart for script.
With Can You Forgive Me upsetting Spike, could we be seeing a Richard E Grant upset on Supporting Actor?
No, chance for Grant. Ali is the most slam dunk of the acting winner. 4-ZERO? No, it isn’t happening for Grant.
Well, shit. This is … great:) I mean, with all honesty, if it wasn’t for all the smear campaigns and the fact that mostly mediocre movies are gunning for the to prize, this season is fantastic! Stat-wise I mean. When’s the last time you were turning on the telecast and had no clue wo is going to win Picture, Screenplay x2, Supp. Actress, Cinematography, Editing and a few more. I’ll take this all-over-the-place season over by-the-book-locked-since-december season any day. I love it that the precursors didn’t align how they usually do. It had some downsides (Bohemian Rhapsody with a Globe and an Eddie), but it also had some great moments (ASC, WGA!!!). Isn’t this the way every race should look like? To be a rollercoaster ride filled with anticipation and emotions. Usually by this time you are able to predict 80% of the categories. This year I’m not sure if it’s 50%.
The only ones that seem really locked are:
– Cuaron for Directing
– Malek for Best Actor
– Ali For Best Supporting Actor
– Spider-Man for Animated
and that’s it! There are many near-locks, that will probably end up winning, but right now you still have some minor (in some cases microscopical) doubts. The near locks are:
– Close for Best Actress – as near a lock as one can get, but this isn’t 100% sure. There’s that Coleman win at the BAFTAs and a fact that The Wife is a mediocre movie that Close preety much keeps together. She will probably Still Alice her way onto the podium, but I’m not 100% certain at this point.
– A Star is Born for Song – I have a sneaky feeling ASIB will either end up with one award or will be shut out entierly. The only one it can win is Song, but… do people still remember that there is a movie like A Star is Born? It has been the biggest drop from frontrunner to “maybe one award” I’ve seen in years. Who can steal? Black Panther of course.
– Bohemian Rhapsody for Sound Mixing – that’s right folks. It will happen. There is a slight chance some other movie might upset, but not a big one. Rhapsody will also most likely win Editing, but that’s not a near lock.
– Infinity War for VFX – I know it feels like a lock, but there’s something fishy about this. No movie from the MCU has ever won VFX. The Academy has a tendency to go for more subtle piece of work and has been known to upset the frontrunner many times. Remember Transformers and a Golden Compas? Ex Machina? Hugo? How all three of the Apes lost? I have my doubts.
– Roma for Best Foreign film – two words, Cold War. A movie that has been campaigning very hard (not as hard as Roma though) and scored way above expectations. Roma will most likely take it, but again, I have my doubts.
And that’s it! 🙂
The rest is up for grabs. I would have added Lee for best Ad.Screeplay to near locks, but the WGA happened. The rest? Here we go:
– Supp Actress – who the hell knows
– Or. Screenplay – The Favourite has the upper hand, but is facing stiff competition from Green Book, with three (yes, three) chances of an outside contender to swipe the win
– Editing – Bohemian probably, but again, who the hell knows
– Cinematography – Cold War is breathing down Roma’s neck
– Costumes and Art Direction – The Favourite and Black Panther will duke it out here.
– Make-Up – Vice seems to be the big one here, but this category has been known to upset
– Best Original Score – all over the place. I guess only Desplat will certainly not win.
– Sound Editing – I don’t think Bohemian Rhapsody will win both sound categories. My wild card here is A Quiet Place.
– Best Picture – yeah, well, you know 🙂
Like I said. Despite all the bullshit floating arround, I love this season. I also love the fact that the Academy has reversed their decision not to air all categories.
That means like every year, I’ll tape the telecast while being fast asleep (The telecast in Poland starts at 2.00 a.m.), wake up late on monday, because I’ll be off work that day. I’ll avoid any news on the Oscars, buy myself 2 bottles of wine and I’ll start watching and drinking at arround 10.00 a.m.. That’s gonna last for about 4-5 hours with pee breaks and a likely trip to the liquor store for a third bottle of wine. Then I’ll fall asleep, wake up in the evening and watch the highlihts I have trouble remembering from the first viewing. I can’t wait 🙂
But is Malek a lock? I mean, he’s the frontrunner, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Bale wins also.
Ali is great in Green Book, but he JUST won. I know Waltz had won a couple of years apart, but I can see them spreading the love around and Richard E Grant winning, giving Green Book screenplay as their only win.
Anecdotal, I know, but in the New York Times article, all 20 Academy members who were asked voted for Malek.
OMG Great winners. I love both Eighth Grade and Can You Ever Forgive Me? And the MPSE winners are so good too.
I still think Blackkklansman wins Adapted at the Oscars.
Off topic but just saw Vox Lux- what amazing performance by Portman- how did this get no recognition.
Apart from Colman, 3 of the best 4 performances of the year missed the cut: Kidman, Collette and Portman.
Right???
Been saying this for months. One of the weirdest things I’ve ever seen is Portman getting zero awards, or even nominations, for her performance. Zero. Truly baffling.
I don’t want to get into a debate about Vox Lux, but it seems to me clear that , in part, it did not get anywhere awards-wise because it was extremely divisive. I’ve seen on here a lot of people who LOVED it, and a lot of people who HATED it. It’s hard — not impossible of course, but much harder — for a movie that is so divisive to get traction. I don’t think the release and distribution strategy was very successful either — I live in a big city with a passionate filmgoing public and the film kinda came and went with even good friends who follow movies kinda not noticing it. I personally disliked the movie, but I’m trying to speak more objectively about why a film some really loved did not break through in the awards season.
The film was barely released and to be honest Portman living overseas has sort of insulated her from the aggressive campaigning that is needed to get a small movie hitting major nominations.
She did a lot of TV shows for it though. It’s strange how it remained virtually unseen and undiscussed.
Yes, she has a win and two other nominations, but I just don’t think she’s really that big of an Oscar player where simply showing up in a competent project will get her in the mix for a nomination/win. Who knows why, but Jackie dying on the vine like it did spoke volumes to me.
The film itself was clearly not major awards fare, even though I loved it. But Portman’s performance was such a tour de force, I thought critics groups will honour her at least.
And here’s Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty winning Adapted for ”Can You Ever Forgive Me?” …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQmoz2gomVY
Here’s Bo Burnham winning the WGA’s Original Screenplay prize for ”Eighth Grade” …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZKHiqYYiBc
Humility, thy name is NOT Bo Burnham.
Sense of humor is not your name.
What a wonderful win for Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty’s ”Can You Ever Forgive Me?” I only wished this movie had been picking up more prizes throughout the season, especially for Melissa McCarthy, Richard E. Grant and the criminally underrated Marielle Heller. (FYI, the Huffington Post just did a profile of Grant, and how he’s been charming everyone and just enjoying the ride. Wish he could upset.)
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/richard-e-grant-can-you-ever-forgive-me-oscars_n_5c670300e4b01757c36b63e3
The Green Book screenplay was too controversial. It’s Director snub already hurt the film. It will be rewarded with a win for Ali, so I can the Academy giving Picture, Screenplay to other films.
The screenplay w as s too controversial . Why ? All the attacks on it were lies or haven’t you heard the Green Book tapes . Green Book should not have been the victim of all this hate . It’s a wonderful life affirming film.
No. it is badly acted, aside from Ali, and unoriginal. One of the worst best film nominees ever.
Mortensen was just tremendous.
Not often does the AMPAS pick different winners than the WGA in both categories. Interesting.
Tbh, I was kinda hurt that Eight Grade didn’t receive a nom for Best OG Screenplay (Thanks A24). It is one of the most honest, truest and most pure screenplays in the modern decade. Kayla’s youtube video scripts, her and her dad’s conversations and the scene in the car with the guy who tried to get into her clothes are just writing gold.
The Favourite now becomes the Three Billboards to Roma’s Shape of Water.
The Favourite was and will never be a frontrunner for Best Picture. Three Billboards has been when it won Globes.
Given both BP front runners lost WGA, stats-wise it comes down to what snubs/losses are worse?
Both didn’t get SAGE, but Roma has 2 surprise acting noms that show acting support. GB is winning Supporting Actor.
Roma won DGA but lost the preferential PGA to Green Book.
Green book missed Director but got Editing, Roma the reverse. Green Book also missed BAFTA Director.
They both won the Globe (but Roma couldn’t win Drama, it won FF) and Roma won CC, AACTA & BAFTA, the latter two with some AMPAS overlap.
Roma is the nom leader with 10, whereas Green Book has a much weaker 5.
I think Roma has the edge.
I don’t and I don’t think any movie has edge…but now I add green book to my list of films I seen and it superb important masterfully done I explain more my thoughts ltr..so…if not black panther best pick up thrn green book is exception as best pic preference to me
WGA paving the way for Roma to Best Picture.
So neither of the two big winners are BP nominees. So we still don’t know anything. Or do we ?
Well, we know that neither presumed BP top player (Roma, Green Book) could win tonight even though their biggest competition (The Favourite) didn’t even qualify.
And we also know that the writers weren’t feeling like giving Spike Lee what from afar at least looked like an easy win, they opted for a (very deserving) dark horse instead.
ALL fine by me. I honestly don’t think writing was the strong suit of either Roma or Green Book or Blackkklansman and this way there was at least a proper consolation prize for Burhnam who REALLY should have made the cut at the Oscars and at last some legit recognition for the criminally underrated Nicole Holofcener.
As far as the Oscar race goes, eh, I think we offically entered the last days aka “who gives a shit at this point” anway.
To me Green book losing means more than Roma losing here
The whole season is just all over the place. If the PGA winner wins, it would have to break a bunch of stats, if the DGA winner wins, it would have to break a bunch of stats, if anything other than the PGA or (!) DGA winner wins, then that’s definitely breaking a bunch of stats. And the list goes on.
Roma has to break SAGE, PGA and editing.
Green Book has to break SAGE, DGA and directing.
Roma has to break the SAG (ensemble), editing nod, foreign language film and Netflix stats.
Green Book has to break the SAG (ensemble), directing nod, BAFTA directing nod and above all, it has 5 nominations and of 8 best picture nominees, it’s the one of the fewest nods. Has such a film ever won since the 30s?
No film outside the top 6 in nominations has won since 1932.
When it comes to precursors, I enjoy this season’s chaos.
I have a crazy idea for making the oscars entertaining. Apart from best pic and director, present the remaining awards at random by picking the winners envelop at random from a big beautiful bowl in the middle of the stage.
Is it a stupid idea? yes. Is it whimsical, I sure think so 😀
They will never do it but throw in some joke clips from actors previous films. Like they can have a Road House clip instead of A Star is born for Elliot.
Damn, I knew they’re going to go random, but I guess Vice wasn’t random enough!
Also, the Scripter snub for Blackkklansman was not a fluke.
Also, Sound Editing is now the easiest of calls for A Quiet Place. Don’t be blinded by Bohemian Rhapsody. Remember, the entire Academy votes, and remember the Blunt win.
No film has won Sound Editing without a Best Picture nomination this decade so I will be shocked if AQP pulls this off. The Academy also likes to pair up Mixing and Editing and I simply don’t think voters will go for a movie with a single nomination.
I agree that A Quiet Place seems to be in a better position than Bohemian Rhapsody, especially since both of the awards Bohemian Rhapsody won have terrible track records as far as winning the sound editing Oscar goes whereas the foley winner has won at least one of the sound awards 7/10 previous years. And when was the last time that a music film won sound editing in a way as random as Bohemian Rhapsody would and mostly because it’s also winning sound mixing? But I’m not confident that it’ll be A Quiet Place either
Why is A Quiet Place in a better position? Now I agree that BR is not a lock in Editing but it still has the BAFTA for Sound and is the biggest winner at MPSE ( it matters when this is coupled with winning CAS considering that the Academy likes to pair these two categories up). Being a music biopic it’s also a big plus. I’m predicting BR in Editing but I honestly wouldn’t mind an upset from AQP.
Basically my problem with Bohemian Rhapsody as a sound editing winner is that it’s completely based on it winning sound mixing. The BAFTA for sound has predicted sound editing in a split only three times in the previous 25 years (Arrival, Master and Commander: the Far Side of the World and Braveheart) whereas it has done so at least five times for sound mixing (Whiplash, Les misérables, Slumdog Millionaire Ray and Chicago) and the award overall tips music/musical even more than the Oscars do (for example awarding Moulin Rouge! and Walk the Line when those films didn’t win any sound Oscar). The CAS has predicted the sound editing Oscar quite well but once again, it has only once predicted sound editing in a split (Master and Commander: the Far Side of the World). That means that if there’s a link, it rotates through sound mixing and the basic argument for why Bohemian Rhapsody will win sound editing is purely based on it being the frontrunnr for mixing.
That is of course a fair argument in general: mixing and editing line up quite often. But I’m not that confident about that being the case with Bohemian Rhapsody this year, as it has no elements that feel showy from a sound editing point of view and because of the 46 sound editing winners in Academy history, not a single one has been from a musical or a music movie, not even any of the films that won both mixing and editing. These genres just aren’t films that voters choose for sound editing, at least based on precedent, and I don’t see any reason why it would be Bohemian Rhapsody that would break this way of awarding these awards
But I’m most likely not going to predict A Quiet Place either as I don’t feel like this foley win is any proof for its win. But it does have notably less against it than Bohemian Rhapsody in my opinion. I’ll try and find nominations stats to figure out what I’ll eventually predict
But I don’t see AQP winning either considering no movie has won this decade without being a BP nominee. First Man is dead and I simply refuse to believe it has a chance here. Who else? Black Panther or Roma? It just doesn’t sound right lol. In my opinion the cards are still stacked in BR favor.
I’m not sure it will win either (I edited my post at some point so you probably didn’t see the end text I wrote after originally posting the comment stating just that) but if we look at tonight’s winners, let’s be honest, Bohemian Rhapsody won one award of signifcance: the dialogue and ADR one. In the “musical” category, it was against Mary Poppins Returns and A Star Is Born so we can’t claim that it triumphed when its competition isn’t even nominated. It also failed to get foley and music underscore nominations, of which at least the foley category has a great track record as far as nominations go (only Hugo has missed it since the mid-2000s at least when they stopped differentiating things like King Kong as foreign). The nominees in that category this year were:
A Quiet Place – Paramount Pictures
Avengers: Infinity War – Walt Disney Studios / Marvel Studios
Black Panther – Walt Disney Studios / Marvel Studios
Deadpool 2 – Twentieth Century Fox
The Favourite – Fox Searchlight
First Man – Universal Pictures
Mission Impossible: Fallout – Paramount Pictures
Ready Player One – Warner Bros.
Thus I’m leaning to A Quiet Place, Black Panther or First Man. In recent years most winners (all except Hugo, Zero Dark Thirty and The Hurt Locker) also seem to have gotten nominated for all three of dialogue/ADR, foley and effects and music underscore or won the foley and effects category, and A Quiet Place and First Man have these so they seem like the safest predictions to me
So I have a question. If it’s in the Musical category doesn’t mean that it can’t be in the Foley and Editing Music category? Neither ASIB nor Mary Poppins were in these categories. I knew that a movie can’t be nominated in Foley if it’s in Musical.
Would you mind telling me where you heard this information concerning foley? I can’t find precedent for a music film being nominated in foley but there’s nothing about it in the official MPSE rules. And why would it be different from dialogue and ADR? As for the music underscore thing, I’m sorry, I didn’t know about that. Nonetheless, my point about what sound editing winners are like and how there’s really little proof for Bohemian Rhapsody’s sound editing win besides its sound mixing win that can be found apply in my opinion
They simply don’t nominate Musicals in Foley. They never have so ask them why they don’t do it.
I just think that it’s largely the same question as why has no music/musical film won the sound editing Oscar. So if your argument here is “because it simply doesn’t happen”, that is in no way proof that Bohemian Rhapsody won’t be harmed by this snub for the Oscars and in fact showcases why I don’t think Bohemian Rhapsody will win the sound editing Oscar, simply because “it simply doesn’t happen”
Sure, Jan.
It’s not a snub lol. Try again.
It’s different from Dialogue because Foley effects do intertwine with music very often. The sound designer has to use certain objects or techniques to create a musical rhythm or recreate a musical ambient.
It’s different from Dialogue because Foley effects do intertwine with music very often. The sound designer has to use certain objects or techniques to create a musical rhythm or recreate a musical ambient.
But no one knows for sure, right? I’m not convinced to take as fact any one person’s arguments concerning why concrete rules are probably a certain way when said rules don’t really mention it. Unless you get confirmation that it was a question of genuine ineligibility, any discussion about this are completely meaningless.
Now, would you like to start discussing the actual point I was making before this vague and absurdly agressive eligibility discussion started: why would Bohemian Rhapsody become the first music movie to win the sound editing Oscar?
But Musicals can’t be nominated in Foley or Sound Editing Music. That’s why they made different categories. Your argument doesn’t stand.
Do you have any source for this? I glanced through the rules and couldn’t find any similar restriction. If that was the case, it might be interesting.
He’s right. In 2017 Florence Foster Jenkins, La La Land, Moana, Sing Street and Trolls were nominated in Musicals but not in Foley and Sound Editing Music. The same in previous years.
The fact that they have different categories it’s enough proof. You don’t have to be a genius.
Films are eligible for Foley, Dialogue and Music Underscore at the same time. Having different categories does not mean exclusivity. Now, the category definition does suggest an exclusivity between Musical and Music Underscore (which makes perfect sense) but nowhere is it mentioned that only films in the Underscore category, and not in the Musical category, can be nominated for Foley. Especially since Musicals are eligible for Dialogue, just as non-Musicals are. Now, in the past few years, I didn’t manage to find a film in both Musical and Foley, but then again, glancing through the Musical list, they’re not really the type of films usually recognised in Foley, so that could be a simple snub as well.
LOL
It’s not a snub. Musicals are not nominated in Foley. Just accept the fact you’re wrong just for once for God’s sake.
I will immediately once you offer a reasonable argument. Forgive me for “just because I say so” is not quite sufficient for me. It’s nothing personal, but I like to be sure about rules and eligibility.
Of course they won’t nominate a musical that has tons of music editing in the same category with non-musical movies. It just doesn’t make sense.
For music editing (Music Underscore and Musical), it makes perfect sense that they are separated, I’m not questioning that. In Dialogue, they nominate both musicals and non-musicals in the same category though. And the big question is the Foley category.
Because it’s Dialogue….DUH
I have to assume that you mean by this that it would make no sense to separate them in dialogue, which I completely agree with. But what sense does it make to exclude musicals from Foley?
And you really think they wouldn’t have nominated BR in Foley if it had been eligible? They gave it two freaking awards. They clearly loved it.
The thing is, we don’t know. They are sound editors, perhaps they can differentiate between good Dialogue editing and good Foley editing. I don’t know. That’s why I’m desperate for some actual, factual proof. All this is just talk without it. What I do see is there were 2 winners, A Quiet Place and Bohemian Rhapsody. We know that Foley tends to be the more important category in predicting the Oscars. We know that A Quiet Place got 3 nominations, and Bohemian Rhapsody got 2. That’s why it would be crucial to know if Bohemian Rhapsody missed the third, or wasn’t eligible.
Please read my comment below and see why they don’t include Musicals in the Foley category.
Are you tired? Because otherwise there’s no explanation. I know you have a functional IQ so you not getting a simple fact is weird.
Because of the same reason they excluded it from Sound Editing Music??? Foley is about editing sound effects (Foley effects) and it would be unfair to have musicals which have more editing of sound effects ( adding musical instruments and musical sounds) in the same category with non musicals films. It makes sense if you think about it.
I didn’t want to keep this going but I have to disagree (shocking, I know). Foley is not part of the music any more than dialogue is. Music is dealt with in the music categories, and the rest are for different sounds, like dialogue of foley effects. To me, it doesn’t make sense that one includes musicals and non-musicals and the other doesn’t. Perhaps you feel differently about this, and that’s okay. But in the end, it doesn’t really matter what either of us thinks, what matters is how it actually is. Which we don’t know, which is unfortunate, but that’s what we have.
You’re trolling or maybe you’re just tired and that’s ok..let’s just end this discussion.
The various noises made by musical instruments or sound equipment or musical sounds made by different objects other than instruments are part of Foley.
I’m a novice but I think there are many more Foley effects in a musical than in a non musical. For example to recreate all those stage sounds or the rehearsal ambient in both BR and ASIB includes many more Foley effects.
Yeah, I think it will win one, not both.
Bo Burnham actually said “Good luck at the Oscars, losers!” while accepting original screenplay.
FUCK YOU, BO BURNHAM. Up your largest bodily orifice. Act like you’ve f’n been there before.
That’s not a rumour, it’s an official quote from the ceremony.
That’s always what’s known as a “self-deprecating joke”. For someone who complains about comedies so much, you don’t seem to know much about how it works.
Dickwad is already walking around with a DGA that should’ve gone to Bradley Cooper. What a prick he is.
I liked both films quite a lot, but rated Eighth Grade higher. Burnham is an worthy a recipient as Cooper.
You need to learn to deal with your own personal choices not winning in a healthy manner.
Well Bo Burnham should learn how to deal with his win in a healthy manner. Makes me glad he wasn’t nominated.
Making a self-deprecating joke is generally considered a fairly normal thing to do.
Okay fine, you got me. The movie was just not good.
For those keeping score at home:
Re: Eighth Grade and Bo Burnham
DGA: Best of 2018
WGA: Best of 2018
MovieManiac14: no good
You forgot to modify DGA to DGA First Feature. Roma is the REAL winner of just DGA.
Boohoo. BB deserved both. Funny how people winning silly awards makes you speak in such vile way.
Whatever the reason(s) for winning here, he would not have repeated at the Oscars. He just would not have. To me it’s just further proof the deserving Favourite repeats its BAFTA win now over the overrated and controversial Green Book. I think GB would’ve won here, but the controversies broke out during the final round of voting, right? And that sunk it. And the fact that Roma or even Vice with its other special win tonight didn’t become the winner by default is arguably quite telling. Not that Roma should be winning a screenplay award by any means anyway.
Just think to yourself It’s just a award show you really should just relax.
Don’t take it so literally. I’m sure he was being ironic. I’m sure it got laughs.
good lord, Paul. do you ever do anything during these AwardsDaily celebrations besides furiously shit yourself over everyone who wins whose talent flies over your head?
I don’t have a dog in an original screenplay fight, but dammit, act with a little humility instead of Ric Flair-ing all over the place like Burnham did tonight. That was missing from his speech, and it’s on youtube already.
Don’t ever watch one of Bo Burnham’s hilarious gasp-inducing comedy shows, Paul.
You’ll swallow your tongue while you have a simultaneous stroke and heart attack, and then you’ll spontaneously combust.
I don’t know that Bo Burnham is a comic. Never heard of him until the DGA’s.
It’s not really necessary to be familiar with his work to actually understand that he wasn’t seriously calling them losers. I think even people with slightly below average intelligence would get the joke.
not shocked that you don’t know things that most of us know.
in all seriousness though, Paul. if you would ever stop stanning so relentlessly for Kristen Bell and Bradley Cooper, you could take time to get to know some other enormously talented filmmakers.
maybe when you get to know them and their work, you could stop instantly hating them just because they threaten your favorites.
you can find a lot of Bo Burnham’s things on youtube.
he became a youtube comedy sensation in 2006 at the age of 16.
you seem to have a fairly narrow of range of things that you think are funny/entertaining — and that’s fine, when you stick to praising the things you love
(it only gets creepy when you automatically despise anything that’s not among the 5 things in the world that you like.)
so Bo’s type of humor might not strike you funny at all, Paul.
but for others of us, he was prodigy that we’ve had our eye on for over a decade. whose already substantial fame and career have rightfully launched into the stratosphere this year
here he is selling out theaters when he was still a teenager:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnRqnlnOLMU
OMG this makes me so happy, Bo Burnham has surprised and won quite a lot this season actually – first beating Bradley Cooper at DGA then winning here! That was my pony this year so I am glad it got noticed somewhat even if the academy ignored it, albeit in favour of an amazingly deserving screenplay – First Reformed (though argh they could’ve kept both and removed Vice – just saying). I actually predicted it too but didn’t think it would happen! Now just give Spike Lee an award and you will make me very happy (though I would be happy with Can You Ever Forgive Me? Or Beale Street too).
After this I’m going to go ahead and lock in Roma in my predictions to win – unless I jump across to The Favourite or BlacKKKlansman (if it wins here) since Green Book needed to win here for me to take it seriously.
Guild/precursor update:
PGA – Green Book
DGA – Roma
SAG – Black Panther
WGA – Eighth Grade and Can You Ever Forgive Me?!
Globes – Roma, Bohemian Rhapsody, and Green Book
BFCA – Roma
BAFTA – Roma and Favourite
Editing – Bohemian Rhapsody and Favourite
Sound – Bohemian Rhapsody
Cinematography – Cold War
Art Direction – Favourite, Black Panther, and Crazy Rich Asians
Makeup – Vice, Mary Queen of Scots, A Star Is Born
Visual – Avengers
Music Composers – First Man
Talk about an open race!
Not really. It’s down to Roma and Green Book I think.
Green book has no director and only 5 noms which I think is worse than no editing and 10 noms.
Neither has SAGE, but Roma had the 2 surprise acting noms which shows acting support.
And Green Book just lost WGA to a small comedy which isn’t Oscar-nominated. I can’t see it winning now without greater plurality support among the people.
Roma lost too but it’s a far less obvious dialogue-heavy/screenplay based piece I think.
Wait, so First Man didn’t win anything AGAIN? HAHAHA Hate to say I told you so.
Comedy/Sketch: Nathan for You
Congratulations to Adam McKay for Vice for the Paul Selvin Award. From Wikipedia:
The Paul Selvin Award is a special award presented by the Writers Guild of America. It is to be given “to that member whose script best embodies the spirit of the constitutional and civil rights and liberties which are indispensable to the survival of free writers everywhere and to whose defense Paul Selvin committed his professional life.”
So BAFTA could be the precursor that hits the closest to Oscar?
Yes, it’s a weird year.
I knew it! Eight Grade will upset here! Now The Favourite’s Oscar chances becomes stronger. I think it’s now the front-runner for Original Screenplay.
I had already said it was, long before this. Even before the BAFTA win. Based on stats, not just personal opinion.
These are fantastic wins. I would have loved to see Paul Schrader get in here and win on his way to an Oscar win, but that was probably never going to happen. Of the WGA nominees, these might be my choices (and I would be excited to see Holofcener win at the Oscars).
These are fantastic wins. I would have loved to see Paul Schrader get in here and win on his way to an Oscar win, but that was probably never going to happen. Of the WGA nominees, these might be my choices (and I would be excited to see Holofcener win at the Oscars).
https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/BYRND2J if you haven’t already. I will try to have results for you all by tomorrow
So, in terms of Screenplay, here’s where we are:
Golden Globe: Green Book
BAFTA: BlacKkKlansman/The Favourite
WGA: Can You Ever Forgive Me/Eighth Grade (not nominated for Oscar)
BFCA: If Beale Street Could Talk/First Reformed
The last year that was this up in the air in the Screenplay categories in terms of precursors was 2002:
Golden Globe: About Schmidt (not nominated for Oscar)
BAFTA: Adaptation/Hable con Ella
WGA: The Hours/Bowling for Columbine (not nominated for Oscar)
The BFCA only gave out one screenplay award that year, and it was to Charlie Kaufman for both Adaptation and Confessions of a Dangerous Mind (that was a thing back then)
In the end, the Oscars went for: The Pianist/Hable con Ella (fun fact, neither of these films had WGA or Golden Globe nominations for Screenplay)
So, yeah, this is crazy!!!
WGA was right that year with The Hours, a remarkable screenplay that should have won the Oscar
I actually just recently rewatched The Hours on HBO. Its really a wonderful film.
YAAAAAAAS The Hours!
Roma may win because there is no consensus around a film that will get the second highest number of #1 votes or be in second place on eliminated ballots.
Very true.
Have we ever had a season more nuts than this since the guilds all popped up? Seriously no overlap between SAG ensemble, PGA, DGA, WGA, ACE, ASC
Great isn’t it? 🙂 Its what a race should be.
By the way that’s not a rhetorical question – does anyone know of a year since these guilds have all existed where the ones listed have all gone separate ways without a single overlap (or even leaving aside ace and asc)
No, this has never happened since the introduction of SAG.
This year:
PGA – Green Book
DGA – Roma
ASC – Cold War
SAG (ensemble) – Black Panther
Cinema Editors Guild – Bohemian Rhapsody/The Favourite
WGA – Eight Grade / Can You Ever Forgive Me?
This is absolutely nuts.
Thanks that was what I thought but I figured I should get someone to confirm! It’s so much fun, I’m looking forward to Monday! (Or Sunday for those of you in the wrong country)
I answered that above.
Funny. I was finishing watching Eighth Grade while it’s winning WGA.
Great to see Can You Ever Forgive Me? win here. Well deserved. Would love for it to go on and win the Oscar, but I’m not certain it can top BlacKkKlansman in that area. Which means, will The Favourite actually win Original Screenplay, or will Cuaron take that too?
I still think blackKK wins the Oscar and it should IMO, but at least tonight’s loss makes it clear it’s not going near BP
Well, never underestimate Hollywood’s dislike of Spike Lee.
Not seen Eighth Grade however watched and loved Can You Ever Forgive Me? so happy for them.
It’s on Amazon Prime.
I still think Spike Lee is a lock for BKkK for the Adapted Screenplay Oscar. But this was a double blow for Green Book. Not only did it lose Original Screenplay, but the revival of interest in Can You Ever Forgive Me? could threaten its one guaranteed win in the Best Supporting Actor category.
No. Ali is a lock
I hope you’re right.
I hope you’re wrong.
I hope you’re right. He’s incredible and deserves it.
There is zero chance Ali loses. He’s the biggest lock of the night after Cuaron imo.
Grant might win!Remember globes and Bafta needed to make up to Ali for three years ago.Winning acting Oscars so close to each other is very rear.
What is going on this year?
Great suspense for the Oscars..
I prefer a year of upsets rather than have all predictable winners.
The upsets kind of make sense if you think about it. One is about a writer struggling to get by, and the other is about an introvert who has trouble relating to the more glamorous and gregarious people who surround them… sound like the kind of things Hollywood writers would like.
It’s obvious for me that, stats wise, it’s Roma’s to lose.
The writers have taste.
I don’t follow the TV stats, but I don’t think there is a precedent for a show winning WGA, PGA, DGA, Golden Globes and Critics Choice and not the Emmys.
It’s like the precursors are going out of their way to be no help this year. I mean, damn.
If only they were this adventurous every year…
Whoa.
Adapted Screenplay: Can You Ever Forgive Me (????????????????????????????????????????)
So deserving! Would be my personal pick in the category. Probably still Spike Lee’s to lose at the Oscars, though.
both would be well deserving. As would Beale Street
Sometimes the best actually wins!
Such a great night! Really effing cool that both of those screenplays won. And I love it when all hell breaks loose with these precursors
I motion the World Anti-Doping Agency drug test these WGA voters. Jesus forking Christ.
Both of the screenplays are really good and well deserving. Not that some of the other nominees weren’t
New Series: The non-comedy, Barry
It’s a dark comedy.
Come on, Barry is hilarious.
Drama Series: The Americans
Well deserved.
Long-Form TV Adapted: ACS: Versace
Should have been The Terror. I really should not care that it has not won or been nominated for anything. The most important thing is that I enjoyed it.
TV Long form original: Castle Rock
Eighth Grade is the first winner of the original screenplay WGA without an Oscar nom since Bowling for Columbine’s unprecedented win in 2003. Granted, the Oscar winner was the ineligible Talk to Her. Previously, all winners had been nominated for the Oscar except for some of the comedies when they awarded dramas and comedies separately.
Ageism?
What do you mean?
I mean that the Academy generally prefers older people’s stories. They do like sexy young actresses in their 20s and frequently give them Oscars, but Elsie Fisher was too young to be seen that way.
Maybe Bo Burnham has a lot of appeal among industry writers as a successful comic?
Yes, maybe you’re right. Actually, I don’t think ageism was at play here, since the Academy has often supported young actresses (as opposed to male actors) of any age. There simply wasn’t enough room for Eighth Grade in the Original Screenplay category at the Oscars, because of the four Best Pic nominees + First Reformed.
I think more than ageism the Academy went for higher-profile prestige pictures. Eighth Grade is a delightful and moving film, but all the Best Picture heat was always in Original Screenplay. You could begrudge Vice getting the Oscar nomination despite being the messiest screenplay and less likely to win Best Picture than Roma or Green Book, but it’s certainly a script-driven satire and of a bigger scope than Eighth Grade. And yes, First Reformed was always deserving of at least a nomination here.
You’re right. I think we were typing at the same time.
Nah… Little Miss Sunshine won this category over a handful of stronger choices.
Juno won, Lost In Translation won. Problem here was that A24 had two great but small films this time and 4/6 BP nominees up for Screenplay were Original. Cold War was probably very close to bumping both out.
I think Roxanne is the only other example.
Eighth Grade winning is a joke . What a pathetic choice .
Why not It’s a good movie and it makes the original screenplay race more interesting.
Or perhaps a recognition of an excellent screenplay.
Let’s have your insightful review of Eighth Grade. I’m sure it will open our eyes.
Zach man oh man. What if adapted goes can you ever forgive me
Eighth Grade winning is pretty damn cool. What a pleasant surprise
How the F did Eighth Grade win?? Favourite wins Oscar.
It won by being the best screenplay. Just saying.
Comedy/Variety TV Special: The Fake News with Ted Nelms
I can see the “Green Book and Roma both lost WGA but BlackKK won, so it could win BP” article being drafted now, assuming BlackKK wins this.
Green book and Roma both lose WGA. Thanks for helping us pick the BP winner WGA- not.
I don’t think Roma is a screenplay driven piece like Green Book, so I think GB is hurt a bit more by this.
Yeah… the old problem of the average industry member (writers included) is that they see films that are not dialogue driven as less Screenplay driven, which is ridiculous but it’s the reality.
Moreover, Cuaron is already taking 3 personally + Foreign Language film.
Paul Schrader can win the Oscar. And that’s unquestionable.
Roma is taking Best Picture.
It’s a Single nomination though. I think it points to The Favourite winning.
It’s like Best Supporting Actress. It’s too tight. The winner could have low 20%s.
If not for the 9/11 issue, Green Book would win in a cakewalk.
If it’s up for the award, it CAN win. But please give me a single example of a film winning Best Screenplay with only one nomination. The closest you get is The Producers.
Until the 50s, it was fairly common that films with few or none support from the rest of the Academy won Writing. The Candidate was, as far as I remember, the last possible case in the 70s. It was only up for Sound.
Anyway, this is a very bizarre season in which the SAG Supporting Actress winner, the Scripter winner and the WGA Original Screenplay all were snubbed at the Oscars. I don’t know if this season can go to the books without at least one bizarre Oscar.
I am still waiting for that example of a film winning with only one nomination.
Well, if the Sound nomination for The Candidate means a lot here, you must please promise me you will sleep better tonight If I give you some names. There are at least two here just waiting your commitment. Will give you a hint: one is from 1956 and the other from 1947.
The Bachelor and the Bobby-Soxer is a wonderufl film and IMO Myrna Loy’s best.
The ending of First Reformed was a complete mess. A really what the hell moment.
First Reformed? Nah. Roma and Green Book losing paves the way for The Favourite. AMPAS will want to give it a win in a major category.
Original Screenplay: Forkity fork fork…..Eighth Grade????????????????????????????????????????
Yep. Everybody circle The Favourite to win Best Original Screenplay.
Documentary: Bathtubs over Broadway.
Drama Series: Homeland
That’s pretty good for a series that started in 2011.
I messed up; it won for Episodic Drama, it’s not up for drama.
What the F is it with The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (just now winning Comedy Series) and why does it have such a stranglehold on these guilds?
FUCKITY FUCK FUCK.
Because people think it’s a very good show.
Because Hollywood guilds who continue to slobber all over it at the expense of The Good Place are, in fact, denizens of the Bad Place. It’s the most overrated TV show of the 21st century.
Maybe the people that vote for these things are lazy. They probably don’t watch a lot of tv and just vote for it because Amazon shoves it in their faces.
They just said Vice won something
You’re right Aaron
Whoever wins…with such a deep split between the outcomes of all guilds it really will be anyone’s to win best picture . Even if Roma wins it lost out on more powerful SAG conglomerate and producers guild…that counts against it being clear frontrunner….we are at a flashpoint moment in Oscar/ film history here…which way will the film pendulum swing?
Agreed.
Though, if Green Book wins here, I’m putting more money on it for BP, quick smart.