For the past several days we’ve seen our good and clever friends here at Awards Daily make their best stabs at predicting this insanely unpredictable year, with hundreds of projections about the way things may come down Sunday night. Let’s collect all those keen predictions in one post, to get everyone on record in a single all-embracing place.
For the final stretch, our pal JasonMovieGuy has put together this glamorous video to inspire you. (Even if bits of it infuriate you. Because why should this post be any different from any other we’ve featured this year, right?)
Although it seems like this year the awards will be spread all over the place, I’d still like to imagine a scenario where Roma dominates & The Favourite sneaks in three big ones:
Roma: Picture, Director, Cinematography, Production Design, Sound Editing, Foreign Language Film.
The Favourite: Supporting Actress (Weisz), Screenplay, Editing.
Black Panther: Score, Costumes
Bohemian Rhapsody: Actor, Sound Mixing
BlacKKKlansman: Adapted Screenplay
Green Book: Supporting Actor
Vice: Make Up
A Star is Born: Song
And the rest:
– Actress: Glenn Close
– Documentary: Free Solo
– Animated: Into the Spiderverse
– Short Animated: Bao (Weekends close behind)
– Short doc: EndGame
– Short Film: Skin (Margeurite close behind, but really no idea here)
Best Picture:
Green Book
Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron – Roma
Best Actor
Rami Malek – Bohemian Raphsody
Best Actress
Glenn Close – The Wife
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali – Green Book
Best Supporting Actress
Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Adapted Screenplay
Blackkklansmen
Best Original Screenplay
Green Book
Best Editing
Bohemian Raphsody
Best Cinematography
Roma
Best Production Design
The Favourite
Best Costume Design
Black Panther
Best Score
If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Original Song
Shallow – A Star is Born
Best Hair & Makeup
Vice
Best Sound Editing
A Quiet Place
Best Sound Mixing
Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War
Best Foreign Film
Roma – Mexico
Best Documentary Film
Free Solo
Best Animated Film
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Best Live Action Short Film
Marguerite
Best Documentary Short
Period. End of Sentence
Best Animated Short
Bao
Right I posted some interim thoughts 3 days ago. I reshuffled them massively and here are my final predictions
Picture/ Director: Roma
Foreign: Roma
Documentary: RBG
Animated: Spiderverse
Actor: Malek
Actress: Close
SActress: Weisz
SActor: Ali
OScreenplay: The Favourite
AScreenplay: BlacKKKlansman
Editing: Vice
Cinematography: Roma
Production Design: The Favourite
Costume Design: Black Panther
Makeup/ Hair: Vice
VFX: First Man
Score: BlacKKKlansman
Song: Shallow
Sounds (both): Bohemian Rhapsody
Shorts: Bao/ Period/ Madre (the final being an out there prediction based on my personal preference).
Good luck tomorrow everyone!
Since I changed my prediction in 5-6 categories, this is my final turn:
Best Picture: Roma
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Foreign Language Film: Roma
Documentary: Free Solo
Animated Film: Spider-Man
Actor: Ramy Malek
Actress: Glenn Close
Supp. Actor: Maheshala Ali
Supp. Actress: Regina King
Orig. Screenplay: The Favourite
Adap. Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman
Cinematography: Roma
Editing: The Favourite
Production Design: The Favourite
Costume Design: Black Panther
Make-up: Vice
Visual Effects: First Man
Original Score: Black Panther
Song: Shallow
Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody
Sound Editing: A Quiet Place
Documentary short: End Game
Animated short: Weekends
Live Action short: Marguerite
Final official 2019 Oscar predictions in all categories
I’m getting a surprising number of upsets from the stats analysis. It’s interesting… I’ll probably get butchered this year. 🙂 Still, I’m glad I’m at least going out on some limbs this year (since I don’t often do that, given that I predict using stats). It’s more fun that way.
I’ve not yet decided what my contest entries will be.
The first prediction is the one based almost exclusively on stats – where close, I went with the stats I found to be more convincing. The one in brackets is my intuitive prediction, what I expect to see win (specified only when it’s not the same as my official prediction), sometimes in spite of the stats. Those are mostly boring, the stuff most pundits are predicting.
Best Picture – The Favourite (Roma)
Best Director – Cuaron
Best Actor – Malek
Best Actress – Colman (Close)
Best Supporting Actor – Ali
Best Supporting Actress – King
Best Original Screenplay – The Favourite
Best Adapted Screenplay – BlacKkKlansman
Best Film Editing – The Favourite (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Best Cinematography – Roma
Best Production Design – The Favourite
Best Costume Design – The Favourite
Best Sound Editing – Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Sound Mixing – Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Original Score – Black Panther
Best Original Song – Shallow
Best Makeup & Hairstyling – Vice
Best Visual Effects – First Man (Avengers: Infinity War)
Best Foreign Language Film – Roma
Best Documentary Feature – Free Solo
Best Animated Feature – Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Best Live Action Short – Mother
Best Documentary Short – End Game (Period. End of Sentence.)
Best Animated Short – Late Afternoon (Bao)
Just a few quick notes:
– as always, I care more about my stats predictions, though, if I can’t get those right, I’ll be happy to at least be right about the unofficial, intuitive ones, instead, in those categories;
– I used stats based on the Gold Derby Awards for the first time this year (their correlation is surprisingly high) – we’ll see how that goes;
– there is, indeed, it seems to me, more/stronger stats evidence (and more precedent) for a Regina King win than for a Rachel Weisz win (though it would help my confidence in this if I was SURE there was a screener issue at SAG… but I think King is slightly ahead even if that’s not the case) – it’s obviously close, and either can easily win;
– Olivia Colman is the stats favorite, for me (though not by much, evidently), but the Glenn Close narrative makes SO much sense and I see little reason why they wouldn’t vote for her (some, but little), so I expect I’ll get this wrong (as I, of course, mostly expect for all of the stuff where my stats prediction differs from my intuitive one);
– I have The Favourite for Film Editing mostly because Bohemian Rhapsody didn’t get nominated in that category by either the BFCA OR Gold Derby, and The Favourite’s ACE win was in a tougher category, editing-wise – but BoRhap does have the extra sound mixing nomination (and likely win), so it’s not clear at all -, and I don’t have Vice instead because it lost the Gold Derby Award (to The Favourite);
– in no way does the fact that I did NOT name a different unofficial prediction for several categories mean some (or even many) of those aren’t still incredibly unclear (the aforementioned supporting actress race is the best example, as is, of course, live action short, as is score, etc.;
– the only reason I’m not committing to First Man in visual effects for both predictions is I just don’t see them giving it anything… They might, and it would be awesome, but I mostly doubt it;
– I put in some extra work on stats for the shorts this year, and came up with a lot of new stuff – but, of course, apart from the 40′ rule for documentary shorts (which, by the way, I suspect might take a year off this time around, since there’s only one such nominee), none of the stats there are (or could be) very strong… They’re strong enough to be possible decent clues, so I have official, 99% stats-based predictions in those categories as well, but I could EASILY go 0/3;
– I have “Period. End of Sentence.” as my intuitive prediction because Tariq Khan said EVERYBODY he talked to voted for it, plus it’s the most predicted at Gold Derby;
– and I have Bao because it’s overwhelmingly being predicted at Gold Derby, plus I can’t find a single one of the others that jumps out at me as being more likely to win (I’ve seen all 15 shorts, possibly for the first time ever, pre-Oscars – binged them today), and it seems like something they’d go for – but Late Afternoon is the marginally strongest one on stats, even though I don’t much believe in its winning;
– I see Clayton Davis of Awards Circuit is also predicting The Favourite for Best Picture – so at least I’m not the only insane person doing that :)…
Additionally…
All “won’t win” calls for the 2019 Oscars:
These are, again, for the record, the things I’m claiming with great confidence definitely won’t win (I’ve added some at the last moment, but not gone back on anything, of course) – only the stuff somebody might consider actually predicting to upset:
Best Picture: A Star is Born, Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther
Best Director: Spike Lee
Best Actor: Bradley Cooper
Best Film Editing: Green Book
Best Foreign Language Film: Cold War
Best Live Action Short: Marguerite (this one’s a bit crazy, as it’s the most predicted by the pundits, but I want to do at least one riskier one besides picture, and I like this call)
Not that many differences, though I stay with Roma for Best Picture. Switched screenplay to The Favourite (and also Best Editing), since I believe it might be more popular than I thought.
That was great! I must admit I audibly gasped at the end. I may not agree with your predictions but bravo on the video!
Hey thanks Dion!!!! I probably will be audibly gasping when a different Best Picture is named. I am VERYYYYYYY nervous for tomorrow! What a night it’s gonna be.
Best Picture: Roma (dang it, it may really be Green Book. That would mean I got Best Picture wrong for four years in a row.)
Best Director: Roma
Best Actor: Malek
Best Actress: Close
Supporting Actor: Ali
Supporting Actress: Weisz
Adapted Screenplay: BKKKM
Original Screenplay: The Favourite
Cinematography: Roma
Costumes: The Favourite
Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody
Makeup: Vice
Production Design: Favourite
Score: Black Panther
Song: ASIB
Sound Editing: BR
Sound Mixing: BR
VFX: First Man
Animated Feature: Spider-Man
Documentary Feature: Free Solo
Foreign Film: Roma
Animated Short: Bao
Doc Short: Period. End of Sentence
Live Action Short: Marguerite
I am very unsure about 6 or 7 of these. My parents watch the Oscars just to go through the categories and mark on an index card which categories their darling daughter got right, and I have already called them to change 5 or 6 categories. I may change a few here, esp. the shorts.
“My parents watch the Oscars just to go through the categories and mark on an index card which categories their darling daughter got right, and I have already called them to change 5 or 6 categories.”
🙂 That’s so cool!…
Loved that video and if Jason’s picks are correct, then i am doing badly in my Awards daily oscar ballot. Oh Well!
It looks like if the actors are correct, they will all be American actors, which hasn’t happened in a long time. Even better, is that Rami Malek will be an American playing an English man and fully deserves it after the Live Aid section of the movie.
My favorite movie this year was Green Book and Roma, it is nice to have two enjoyable films to choose from.
Sasha, thanks for this web site!
How interesting!
All 4 “frontrunners” (Malek, Close, Ali, King) are American.
All 4 “challengers” (Bale, Colman, Grant, Weisz) are British!
so true!
Glad you enjoyed!! Actually I expect 50% to not be correct haha! Mary, Queen of Scots for Makeup might have been my ONE “Passion” pick- meaning I went with my heart, not logic. That shot of Margot Robbie spinning defiantly and slowly to Barbra’s voice was chillingly beautiful. I couldn’t leave it out lol!
Best Picture: Green Book (alt: Roma)
Best Director: Roma (alt: none)
Best Actor: Bale (alt: Malek)
Best Actress: Colman (alt: Close)
Best Supp. Actor: Ali (alt: Grant)
Best Supp. Actress: King (alt: Weisz)
Best Original Screenplay: The Favourite (alt: Green Book)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Can You Ever Forgive Me? (alt: If Beale Street Could Talk)
Best Foreign Film: Roma (alt: Cold War)
Best Cinematography: Roma (alt: Cold War)
Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody (alt: Vice)
I won’t bother with the other categories in this space. Unfortunately, I feel GB, BR and Vice will all have solid showings this year, but would like to believe that The Favourite will hero this thing.
Editing is my battlefield category, intrigued to see which films wins it and how that shapes the ceremony.
Best Picture: Roma (alt. Green Book)
Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron (no alt.)
Best Actor: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (no alt.)
Best Actress: Glenn Close, The Wife (alt. Olivia Colman)
Best Supp. Actor: Mahershala Ali, Green Book (alt. Richard E. Grant)
Best Supp. Actress: Regina King (alt. Rachel Weisz)
Best Original Screenplay: The Favourite (alt. Green Book)
Best Adapted Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman (alt. Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Best Cinematography: Roma (no alt.)
Best Film Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody (alt. Vice)
Best Production Design: The Favourite (alt. Black Panther)
Best Costume Design: The Favourite (alt. Black Panther)
Best Make-up and Hair: Vice (no alt.)
Original Score: If Beale Street Could Talk (alt. Black Panther)
Original Song: ‘Shallow’, A Star is Born (no alt.)
Best Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody (no alt. )
Best Sound Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody (alt. A Quiet Place)
Best Visual Effects: Avengers: Infinity War (alt. Ready Player One)
Best Foreign Language Feature: Roma (alt. Cold War)
Best Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (no alt.)
Best Documentary Feature: Free Solo (alt. RBG)
Best Live Action Short: Skin (alt. Marguerite)
Best Animated Short: Bao (alt. Weekends)
Best Documentary Short: Period. End of Sentence. (alt. End Game)
My guesses..definitely not what I want on several lol
Picture: Roma (Alt: The Favourite)
Director: Cuaron (Alt: Spike Lee)
Male Actor: Malek (no alt) (still so mad Ethan Hawke didn’t win this)
Female Actor: Close (Alt: Olivia Colman)
Support Male: Grant (Alt: Mahershala Ali)
Support Female: King (Alt: Rachel Weisz)
Foreign Film: Roma (no alt)
Cinematography: Roma (no alt)
Make-Up/Hair: Vice (Alt: Border)
Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody (Alt: BlacKkKlansman)
Score: Beale Street (no alt)
Adapt Screenplay: Blackklansman (Alt: Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Orig Screenplay: Green Book (Alt: The Favourite (I hope))
Song – Shallow, ASIB (alt: Buster Scruggs)
Costumes: The Favourite (Alt: Black Panther)
Production Design: The Favourite (Alt: First Man)
Doc: Free Solo (Alt; RBG)
Animated Feature: Spiderman (Alt: Isle Of Dogs)
Sound Edit: Bohemian Rhapsody (no alt)
Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody (no alt)
Visual Effects: First Man (Alt: Avengers IW)
Picture: Roma
Director: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Actor: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Actress: Glenn Close. The Wife
S. Actor: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
S. Actress: Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (I was almost brave and said Marina)
O. Screenplay: The Favorite
A. Screenplay: Blakkklansman
F. Language: Roma
Animated: Spiderman
Cinematography: Roma
Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody
Costumes: The Favourite
Art Direction: The Favourite
Score: If Beale Street Could Talk
Song: Shallow, A Star is Born
Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody
Sound Editing: Roma (I have a feeling)
Visual Effects: First Man
Make-Up: Vice
Documentary: Free Solo
D. Short: Period. End Of Sentence
Animated Short: Bao
Live-Action Short: Marguerite
Here goes:
Picture: Green Book
Director: Cuaron
Male Actor: Malek
Female Actor: Close
Support Male: Ali
Support Female: Weisz
Foreign Film: Roma
Cinematography: Roma
Make-Up/Hair: Vice
Editing: Vice
Score: Beale Street
Adapt Screenplay: Blackklansman
Orig Screenplay: Green Book
Song – Shallow, ASIB
Costumes: The Favourite
Production Design: The Favourite
Doc: Free Solo
Animated Feature: Spiderman
Sound Edit: A Quiet Place
Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rap
Visual Effects: Black Panther
Doc short: Period. End of Sentence.
Anim short: Bao
Live Action short: Margarite
Vis. Effects to Black Panther? Good luck, cause it isnt nominated!^^
At least one BP nominee is going home empty-handed so which one is it this year?
A lot of movies are going home empty-handed. But I assume you’re talking about BP nominees. If so, I actually have all of them winning at least one award:
Roma – 4 (Pic, Director, Cinematography, Foreign)
BoRap – 3 (Actor, Editing, Sound Mixing)
Favourite – 3 (Supp Actress, Original Screenplay, Production Design)
Black Panther – 2 (Costumes, Score)
BlacKkKlansman – 1 (Adapted Screenplay)
Green Book – 1 (Supp Actor)
A Star Is Born – 1 (Song)
Vice – 1 (Makeup)
Then First Man with two (Sound Editing, Visual Effects) and The Wife with one (Actress).
None of them. But the most vulnerable are in order:
1. BlacKkKlansman
2. Black Panther
3. The Favourite
4. Green Book
5. Vice
6. Bohemian Rhapsody
7. A Star is Born
8. Roma
Maybe Black Panther. But I think it’s gonna be one of those rare years when all BP nominees win something.
FILM: Green Book ACTOR: Malek ACTRESS: Close S.ACTOR: Ali S. ACTRESS: King BD: Cuaron in easiest race to call this yr A. SCREENPSAY: Blackkklansman O. SCRIPT: Green Book CINEMATOGRAPHY: Roma FILM EDITING: Bohemian Rhapsody PRODUCTION DESIGN: The Favourite COSTUMES: Black Panther MAKE-UP & HAIR: Vice ORIGINAL SONG: Shalow from A Star is Born O. SCORE: If Beale Street Could Talk SOUND MIXING: A Star is Born SOUND EFFECTS: First Man ANIMATED-FEATURE: Spiderman, into the Spideyverse VISUAL EFFECTS: First Man &FOREIGN-FILM: Roma
I have heard a lot of people saying they will be happy when this season is over. I actually can’t wait for the Oscars this year. With any luck, there will be some real shockers. Having said that, I have mostly conservative predictions. I have gone out on a loop in Sound Editing, Visual Effects and the short categories:
Best Picture: Green Book (alt. Roma)
Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (alt. Spike Lee)
Best Actor: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (alt. Christian Bale)
Best Actress: Glenn Close, The Wife (alt. Olivia Colman)
Best Supp. Actor: Mahershala Ali, Green Book (alt. Richard E. Grant)
Best Supp. Actress: Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (alt. Regina King)
Best Original Screenplay: Green Book (alt. The Favourite)
Best Adapted Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman (alt. Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Best Cinematography: Roma (alt. Cold War)
Best Film Editing: Vice (alt. Green Book)
Best Production Design: The Favourite (alt. Black Panther)
Best Costume Design: The Favourite (alt. Black Panther)
Best Make-up and Hair: Vice (alt. Mary, Queen of Scots)
Original Score: BlacKkKlansman (alt. Black Panther)
Original Song: ‘Shallow’, A Star is Born (alt. ‘All the Stars’, Black Panther)
Best Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody (alt. Roma)
Best Sound Editing: Roma (alt. Bohemian Rhapsody)
Best Visual Effects: Ready Player One (alt. Avengers: Infinity War)
Best Foreign Language Feature: Roma (alt. Cold War)
Best Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (alt. Incredibles 2)
Best Documentary Feature: RBG (alt. Free Solo)
Best Live Action Short: Madre (alt. Skin)
Best Animated Short: Animal Behaviour (alt. Bao)
Best Documentary Short: Black Sheep (alt. End Game)
Green Book for picture (and/or screenplay) is NOT a safe prediction. 🙂
I have Madre as well.
mostly
I saw you predicted Madre – how did you work out the stats for the short film categories? I am having second thoughts about all my short picks.
Some of them are probably random, so I’d rather not mention those. The ones that are relevant in live action are that the lowest ranked nominee on IMDb has only won once in the last 21 years (this year, that was Detainment, when I checked) and the movie with the fewest other award wins listed on IMDb (Skin) hasn’t won in the last 19 years. Marguerite also has a stat it needs to beat – like Detainment -, but, again, it’s a bit too silly and random (unlike the first two, which make sense), so I’d rather not mention it. I’ll mention it if Marguerite loses. (Fauve I’ve not ruled out statistically – well, I’ve not ruled out anything, since these are not very strong stats, but I just mean it has no stats, strong or weak, to beat, that I’ve been able to figure out. I just went with Mother because it seems more likely, of the two. My expectation is, if it’s not Mother, it’s Skin, not Marguerite. But I could be wrong, easily, of course.)
For documentary short, the only stat you really need to know is the 40′ rule. 14 of the last 15 winners in that category were 39-40 minutes long – there might have been a 38 in there -, and the only nominee this year that meets that requirement is End Game, though its IMDb rating is a bit low for winners there… but the former stat is stronger. However, I think there’s a very good chance it breaks this year, precisely because there’s only one such nominee, and it’s not 100% clean on the other stats, either (nor are the others, but still), whereas usually there are more 40′-long nominees and at least one of them is clean.
For animated short, the stats relevant this year are:
– 23 of the last 25 animated short winners were at least tied for third in the ranking according to the IMDb rating of the nominees. (Weekends isn’t.)
– 21 of the last 23 animated short winners had at least as many other award wins as losing nominations! (Bao and Animal Behaviour don’t.)
– 29 of the last 31 animated short winners were either the highest rated on IMDb, the second-highest rated or no more than 0.3 points lower rated than the second-highest rated. (Animal Behaviour isn’t.)
– All but one of the last 20 animated short winners was either the longest, the second-longest, or no more than 5 minutes shorter than the second-longest. (One Small Step and Bao don’t qualify, according to this rule.)
Which leaves Late Afternoon as the only one with no stats to beat. But, again, these are NOWHERE NEAR being strong stats, so I would advise against factoring them into your predictions too much. Even I take them with a grain of salt. But I like to always have a stats prediction, in every category, which is why I use them at all.
Very interesting. I may well change my pick to Late Afternoon, even though I saw the twist for that coming as soon as that first cup of tea was poured.
Agreed – it was pretty predictable. I don’t personally think it’s going to win, anyway. I expect it’s just Bao. But it’s my stats prediction, at any rate. 🙂
By the way, fantastic video, Jason – I really enjoyed it!
Thank you so much Dominik!!!
Fascinating picks this year. I don’t think that in the end you’ll be right (especially on Best Pic), but if you are, maybe next year you’ll bring back TIFF into the fall film fest discussion on equal footing with Venice and Telluride, as it will have WP’d: Best Pic, Actress, S Actress, and S Actor.
To those talking of King and the SAG snub, I agree it’s a blow. However, let’s not forget the new members let into the Academy which can affect the voting and push for King more. Maybe this can help her break “the SAG curse.”
I think the BP race is a lot closer than the gold derby experts predictions make it look:
Roma 26
Green Book 4 (including Sasha)
Black Panther 2
I’m torn, GB is much more Traditional Academy, Roma is much more New Academy.
GB is a crowd pleaser, Roma is a slow burn.
GB low nom total & Director miss, as well as Roma’s nom haul (including both actresses) & strength through GG, CC & BAFTA make me lean Roma.
I really dislike GB so maybe I will pick it, so if it wins at least I have my pick right. If it loses, I will be happy that it did.
This doesn’t necessarily reflect how close they think the race is. I bet most of those 26 would say that Roma can easily lose. It just looks the most likely.
This.
Picture: Roma (alt. The Favourite, alt. of alt. BlacKKK)
Director: Cuaron (no alt.)
Actress: Close (no alt.)
Actor: Malek (alt. Cooper)
S. Actor: Ali (alt. Grant)
S. Actress: King (there is an alt, but can’t think of an alt.)
O. Screeenplay: The Favourite (no alt.)
A. Screenplay: BlacKKK (no alt.)
It was more challenging coming up with alternatives than it was to predict the winners.
Honestly I want The Favourite to win Screenplay; it truly is the most original work I have seen in years. I have Green Book, but I’m nervous about that WGA loss. Really nervous. But we’ll see. Strong picks. I like how you do alt. for only certain races and I LOVE that Best Picture is multiple alternates- as it will be lol!
Yeah, that WGA loss for GB (which I had predicted) was a nail in the coffin for me. Further, I highly doubt that the Oscars voters would want that Vallelonga to be on stage either. It would not be a good look. If they love the movie, they have the dignified Ali to throw a bone at.
I have a hard time believing that The Favourite will end up with only one Oscar for Art Direction. What’s even weirder, that’s exacly what I’m betting on. Strange year 🙂
It will win at least three.
When are we having the Big bad predictions chart?
Overall, I’ve predicted pretty conventional choices except
Picture: Green Book (and it will win only one other award – Original Screenplay a la Spotlight)
Supporting Actor: Grant
Supporting Actress: Weisz
I can’t say Regina King will win. (After big snubs: SAG and BAFTA)
Feel hopeful about Rachel Weisz.
Best actress: Glenn Close
Best actor: Rami Malek
Best supporting actor: Mahershala Ali but I prefer Richard Grant.
Best picture: Roma
Best director: Alfonso Cuaron.
What’s your libation while watching the Oscars? Your drink of choice?
I’m a beer drinker. But for the Oscars, it’s always tequila. And always a double-shot everytime I predict correctly.
Beer exactly 🙂
Red wine. Tradition by now.
christ I hope you’re a shitty predictor
In the Spotlight year, we played with vodka: a shot if you get it right, two if you get the second in a row, three for third… I think I got the first 7 in a row right, then couldn’t survive until the end lol.
Since it’s in the middle of the night here (starting at about 3:30 am), caffeine drinks are more my preference
When I was a schoolkid, I stayed awake during the night (CET) with some Coke and – at the end of the show – rushed to the morning school bus. In 1992 I didn´t manage to see the final category and was told by some friends at school that “The Silence of the Lambs” had actually won. That was my first Oscar show live, 1992. Great memories.
Sparkling grape juice. We teetotalers party down.
Milk. :)) Maybe Pepsi…
Stunning video, well done
I just can’t see Beale st winning 2 (I wish it would) and first man winning 2 when both really didn’t get much love from AMPAS
Thank you very much Andrew. And yeah, Beale Street winning two (2) is going out on a limb however I stand on it. Because I am going individually. The score to Beale Street is hauntingly beautiful. IF voters listen to it (which I assume many have, as it’s accessible on YouTube)- it’s a no brainer. First Man was supposed to be here, won the Globe, and then got snubbed. Black Panther winning score just doesn’t sit right with me. I don’t know if voters are going to go “Black Panther = Best Score” in their brains; however, the album overall is strong. Isle of Dogs/Alexandre Desplat might be the real threat. And I’m sticking to King.
I’m sitting at:
Best Picture: Green Book
Best Director: Roma
Best Actor: Malek
Best Actress: Close
Supporting Actor: Ali
Supporting Actress: Weisz
Adapted Screenplay: BKKKM
Original Screenplay: Green Book
Cinematography: Roma
Costumes: The Favourite
Editing: Vice
Makeup: Vice
Production Design: Black Panther
Score: Black Panther
Song: ASIB
Sound Editing: A Quiet Place
Sound Mixing: BR
VFX: Avengers
Animated Feature: Spider-Man
Documentary Feature: Free Solo
Foreign Film: Roma
Animated Short: Animal Behavior
Doc Short: Period. End of Sentance
Live Action Short: Skin
Roughly, same predictions… but Vice in Make Up, Avengers in VFX, A Quiet Place in Sound Editing, The Favourite in Costume, Adams in Supporting Actress and A Star is Born in Adapted
A reminder:
AMPAS gave an honorary to Spike Lee a couple of years ago. Without precursors love, they may feel OK with BKKKM emptyhanded, however…
Cooper and Adams are in the critical limit of “noms without win” that the AMPAS tolerates. That’s why I am guessing they both upset at Adapted and Supporting Actress respectively. Remember, the acting branch votes for Adapted, for the win.
Really think Adams? I know she’ll get some “overdue” votes but not sure if enough to overcome King/Weisz as the movie isn’t that well liked and some might want to wait.
Hmm. Maybe. Everything this year feels like a maybe to me — until I think about it, and balk.
I’ve said before, it just seems perverse, bordering on sadistic, that the voters would want to give two respected actors their “okay whatever” Oscars — for two of the worst movies of their careers.
Although, none of the voters seemed to let that bother them when they gave Pacino his Oscar for “What’s that Smell? Do I Smell a Woman?”
Agree on Adams, they may want to wait. But on the other hand, her sixth nom (should be seventh as still can’t get over her snubbed for “Arrival”) and as I said below, be just like the Academy to give it to her for a bad movie and in a year or two she turns in a far more deserving performance.
Agreed, Michael, I do think there’s an “aftershock effect” sometimes — when hundreds and hundreds of voters vote to nominate an actress. But the actress just narrowly misses out (like we assume Adams was #6 the year of Arrival.)
So all those voters who were shocked (as we were) that she didn’t make it in — they are even more determined than ever to make sure she is not overlooked the next time.
All those Adams voters from last time have their votes “banked” in a savings account and are eager to spend them when the time comes.
It just seems though, if that scenario were going to happen, that we would have seen more hints of it by now. Time is sort of running out for Adams to rally 🙁
True although again, the race has been nutty this year with King not nominated for SAG. Who knows if Adams or Weisz ended up second behind Blunt (who probably got a late push as a reaction to her Oscar snub) and makes it harder to figure it out.
don’t remind me of Pacino’s win. The year after they nominated him for “Dick Tracy” (completely over the top) while they snubbed him for “The Godfather Part III” in an absolutely masterful performance (in a SO underrated film… sue me, but it’s my fave of the trilogy, even if it is not the best)
That I’m so unsure putting down my predictions says a lot. Ali is the closest to a lock I can get and even then possibility of Elliott getting the “grizzled veteran pulling surprise win” bit.
I’ll lean to Malek for Actor just for SAG but Bale has support too.
Close for Actress, long overdue and Oscars love those coronations. Yet Coleman could still pull it off.
Supporting Actress…wow. I’ll go with King as new members should help break the “SAG curse.” But Weisz has her BAFTA for support too. And reading a few of those “secret Oscar ballot” bits that indicate Adams will get some “past due” votes (we really don’t know if she or Wiesz placed second for the SAG behind Blunt), not sure if enough to break through but has been too long since this category had a surprise upset. Again, leaning to King but a bit up in the air.
And I’ll join the chorus for Roma/Cauron for Picture/Director.
Also, Gaga gets her Oscar via song and Spider-Verse for animated but I’m not trying with screenplay ones as so much going on there.
It’s a shame the show looks a mess because this is one of the most interesting races we’ve had in years.
So mine are very much subject to change – especially the shorts which I’m in the process of watching but right now:
* denotes still making up my mind so this is not final – and you’ll see this beside most categories.
Picture: Roma
Director: Cuaron
Foreign: Roma
Animated: Spiderverse
Documentary: Free Solo*
Actress: Close
Actor: Malek*
SActor: Ali
SActress: Weisz*
Costumes and Production: I thing these will stay together this year because people are likely name check the favourite or black panther in both (I don’t see many people voting for the 2 separately since they are so linked in both films). I’m at Panther right now*
Makeup/Hair: Vice
Sounds: Bohemian Rhapsody
Editing: Vice*
Cinematography: Roma
Score: Black Panther
Song: Shallow
Adapted Screenplay: Can You Ever Forgive Me?*
Original Screenplay: Green Book*
Visual Effects: First Man*
Animated Short: Bao
Live Action Short: Skin*
Documentary Short: Period. End of Sentence.* (Sight unseen)
Can’t blame you on Supporting Actress, seen a lot of reports of some going with King, others Weisz and a few throwing to Adams. The SAGs really threw the predictions off there.
I’m really not sure there but having no support from industry until this nomination feels like a problem for her… We will see, I might resent and change it back to King.
A friend of mine insists Adams will win as “she’s due and it’s for a movie and performance not many cared for which is how these things work.” He also noted how no SAG nom still hurts King and Weisz’s BAFTA was more for her never gotten one before. I do pick King but I can see a few voters unable to resist Adams and Close winning on the same night. Plus, be just like the Academy to give it to Adams for a poor performance and she puts out a far more deserving one in a year or two.
Malek is the biggest lock next to Cuaron. Don’t change it. I’m probably placing my Super Bets on both of them.
what a joke….their predictions are not even unbiased….they are deeply rooted in bias….they clearly hate vice because of its politics…so they are willfully ignoring legit frontrunners..best make up for mary queen of scots ? give me a break
Wait? Vice used makeup?
I thought Braylon has been preaching that Kristen Bale “transformed” himself into America’s least popular Dick, like Dr. Jekyll into Mr Hyde. If it’s just makeup magic then I’m less impressed.
It wouldn’t be a proper post at AwardsDaily 2019 if Braylon didn’t drop in to pee his pants.
🙂
(Srry, of course Kristen is not the right name.)
(Blame autocorrect. Obviously I meant Kirsten.)
(Another knockout Bale #transformation!)
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/847f53e43c1adbbd93860f40bb254173a683ded960f10a7f66ed3c2ab9b26da1.gif
****underrated performance and movie alert****
Here are mine:
Best Pic : Roma
Best Dir: Roma, Alfonso Cuaron
Foreign Film: Roma
Animated Film: Spiderman
Doc Film: Free Solo
Best Actor: Rami Malek
Best Actress: Glen Close
Best Sup Actress: Regina King
Best Sup Actor: Mahershala Ali
Best Original Screenplay: Green Book
Best Adapted Screenplay: BlackKKlansman
Cinematography: Roma
Editing: BlackKKlansman
Original Score: If Beale street could talk
Original Song: Shallow
Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody
Sound Editing: First Man
Production Design : The Favorite
Visual Effects : First Man
Costume : The Favourite
Makeup and Hair: Vice
Short Film Animated: Bao
Short film live: Marguerite
Short film docs: Period. End of Sentence
Now McDormand and Rockwell will present Best Actress, and Oldman and Janney will present Best Actor. I mean, I don’t mind too much but.. why?
Why not? They are the acting winners from last season.
But why is neither of them presenting the Supporting Categories? Why are they paired? And why are they not crossed over (i.e. McDormand for Actor, Oldman for Actress).
Does it really matter? I feel like we’re complaining about EVERYTHING the Academy does. Changing some things is not always a bad thing.
No, that’s why I was getting at with “I don’t mind too much”. I just don’t understand the rationale, that’s all.
You still mind a lil bit 🙂
I mind. I think it’s stupid, why change the winner of last year presenting to the other gender this year?
AMPAS needs a leadership overhaul
It’s a nice tradition to have the previous year’s winner present to the other gender. I can see why they might want to double up presenters in the acting awards just to attract more viewers, but they why not add a second star presenter to accompany each previous year’s winner? I also think it takes away from a nice moment where the previous year’s winner gets a little moment in the spotlight and we get a reminder of their previous win. That is lost a bit this new way. I’m not OUTRAGED — i just kind of don’t love it.
Toots says: “It’s a nice tradition to have the previous year’s winner present to the other gender.”
Yes this is one tradition I was hoping would be sustained. There is something intimate in passing the baton from one winner to the other, with the opposite sex a way to establish thespian kinship.
Aroncido is right. This is a very surprising break from tradition which begs the question why? It is not a criticism just a plea for understanding.
Each of the supporting actor nominees will toss one of the supporting actress nominees in the air, and the one who exposes the most petticoat will be the winner.
It will be fun, they said.
It will save time, they said.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/672598bcae522bb675706ea2fd8b11f4258e3d9770d210935c9366d0c40d7366.gif
Now this idea I can get behind.
Richard E. Grant would beat them all! I’m sure that mischievous rascal will have a petticoat under his tux.
It doesn’t bother me in the least.
The only reason that I can think of is that there would be a loop if they did it the “traditional” way: Mahershala Ali wins for Moonlight -> he gives the Oscar to Allison Janney -> she gives an Oscar back to him. That might strike people as peculiar or insular
Because that will appease the protesters who felt that previous year’s winners were getting shafted, while still give the show two extra slots to have “bigger stars” presenting the other acting awards, which was their original intent when they wanted the change.
Best Picture – Roma
Honestly, nothing else makes sense. The Favourite won’t do it. Green Book won’t do it. BlacKkKlansman won’t do it. I’m still shaky about this but it’s the best I have.
Best Director – Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Best Actor – Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Actress – Glenn Close, The Wife
I shouldn’t be swayed. As much as I think Colman might upset, then I should probably predict The Favourite for Picture as well, and I’m not ready to do that.
Best Supporting Actor – Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Best Supporting Actress – Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Even though Regina King is still very possible, I just can’t predict her after two major industry snubs. Thus I’ll default to the BAFTA winner Weisz.
Best Original Screenplay – The Favourite
I think the competition is dead after WGA.
Best Adapted Screenplay – BlacKkKlansman
In the end, the Academy at large will feel inclined to give Spike Lee an award. These are not the pesky writers who snubbed it for the Scripter and made him lose the WGA.
Best Cinematography – Roma
Best Editing – The Favourite
This is quite random, and any of The Favourite, Vice, Bohemian Rhapsody and BlacKkKlansman could win, but I’m going with the ACE winner that beat the BAFTA winner.
Best Costume Design – The Favourite
They always go for period gowns. And these are super good, blended with modern fabrics and daring black&white colours.
Best Production Design – Black Panther
Why not? Production Design was great, and they will want to give Black Panther something. They quite often go for Fantasy here.
Best Original Score – Black Panther
No frontrunner here, and while I’d love for If Beale Street Could Talk to win, I feel it might lose to the automatic Black Panther check. But really, any of the five could win. Dark Horse might be Blanchard for BlacKkKlansman.
Best Original Song – Shallow, A Star is Born
Best Make-Up and Hairstyling – Vice
Best Sound Mixing – Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Sound Editing – A Quiet Place
Only place to reward a popular, MPSE-winning film. And they usually don’t go for musicals here.
Best Visual Effects – Avengers: Infinity War
Some people will NOT vote for it because it’s Marvel, but probably half the Academy is involved in it, so I think it might pull it off.
Best Documentary Feature – Free Solo
Beat Animated Feature – Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Best Foreign Language Film: Roma
Best Documentary Short – Period. End of Sentence.
Haven’t seen any of these, so I’ll vote for the Lisa Taback. I believe it’s about quite female topics though, which might be a problem for the largely male Academy.
Best Live Action Short – Marguerite
Best Animated Short – Weekends
I have only seen Bao, but that film made me quite uncomfortable, so I’ll go with the second most predicted one.
“In the end, the Academy at large will feel inclined to give Spike Lee an award. These are not the pesky writers who snubbed it for the Scripter and made him lose the WGA.”
I want to think you’re right, aroncido.
For one thing, the panel who choose the Scripter are academics at USC.
For another, the WGA voters include 1000s of struggling writers who feel a close kinship with the breakthrough underdog writers they awarded.
While Academy members are more seasoned veterans who might respect another veteran (… though any kinship they feel with Spike has sure been an elusive thing to prove for the past 30 years.)
I too agree with this thinking.
I mostly agree. I’m sure The Favourite is not winning Film Editing and I have big doubts about A Quiet Place because it’s a sole nominee. I’m going with Vice In Film Editing and BR in Sound Editing.
I mostly agree. I’m sure The Favourite is not winning Film Editing and I have big doubts about A Quiet Place because it’s a sole nominee. I’m going with Vice In Film Editing and BR in Sound Editing.
Agreed re Roma. Of course another film has a chance — practically any nominee, having been nominated, has a statistical “chance”. And GB has more than a chance. Maybe it’s 10% or 25% or even 33%. But I just feel like Roma has at least a 50% chance of winning, and no other film is near that probability, so if my goal is to be CORRECT, the sheer math of it suggests I should predict Roma. If I decide I want to take a risk and maybe score a point that others don’t, I might predict GB or something else, but if my goal is simply to get the most predictions correct, the safe money is by far on Roma.
I concur with Toots on the probability factor with ROMA, which seems to be on a roll. Only GB is still in the equation for BP, but the depth of love for ROMA has been well established and in the end, those who go elsewhere on their Oscar office pools, do it at their own risk.
If you’re still unsure about Best Picture, then clearly something other than Roma winning DOES make sense to you. 🙂 Otherwise, you should just call it a lock.
So to speak, everything and nothing makes sense to me. No individual film makes sense to beat Roma, but collectively, I still feel it’s quite likely that Roma will lose to something.
🙂 Yeah, that sounds about right, actually…
BEST Picture Green Book
BEST Director Cuaron
BEST Actor Rami Malek
BEST Actress Glenn Close
BEST Supp Actor Mahershala Ali
BEST Supp Actress Regina King
BEST Original Screenplay Green Book
BEST Adapted Screenplay BlackKkk
BEST Cinematography Roma
BEST Production Design Black Panth
BEST Costume Design The Favourite
BEST Editing Green Book
BEST Score Black Panther
BEST Visuals Avengers
BEST Sound Mixing Bohemian Rhapsody
BEST Sound Editing A Quiet Place
BEST Song A Star Is Born
BEST MAKE UP Vice
BEST FOREIGN Roma
BEST Animation Feature Spider Man
I am truly humbled by you guys featuring my video. I truly put my heart and soul into it, and even if I’m not right- as Barbra Streisand’s powerful lyrics say: “The more I live, the more I learn- the more I learn, the more I realize- the LESS I know!”
Dedicated to Sasha & Ryan for allowing me and others to share 20 years of incredible passion and commitment to the Academy Awards.
What a terrific idea to present your predictions as a montage of clips! Most people on Youtube just record themselves talking about them, with usually quite little insight, for an AD regular. Good job!
Hey thanks so much aroncido!! I appreciate that. I’m sure half of these are wrong, but its all about taking a chance right? If Green Book wins though- what a finale I did for it, huh? 🙂
Thank you again so much, Jason.
In my 12 years as Sasha’s little helper, nearly all the best people I’ve met online, I’ve met right here on her site. It’s been great to get to know you even better in our emails today.
Guys! Check out all of Jason’s other videos on his youtube channel, which is far away from twitter, so it’s safe!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gODmehhKgFk
Ohhhh! Thanks for sharing this one Ryan! This was made the DAY after Streep won for The Iron Lady. I lost a LOT of cyber friends that year during the debates of Streep vs Viola Davis. When she won, I went looney I was so happy. It has done well in views, almost at 1MIL now.
While I disagree with some of the choices, the video is a knock out, Jason!
Hey thank you SO much Idle! That means a lot coming from you. Even after making this video, my brain wants to change things. But it’s official now lol. I probably have analyzed this race more then any other- and I still can’t figure it out! 50% of the categories are tossups – if not more.
I am glad you enjoyed it. I was inspired to say the least, to do this video for such a rollercoaster of a year!
Good job—-that was wonderful.
Best Pic : Roma *
Best Dir: Roma, Alfonso Cauron *
Foreign Film: Roma * (Cold war can upset)
Animated Film: Spiderman *
Doc Film: Free Solo * (Minding the Gap is equally deserving)
Best Actor: Rami Malek *
Best Actress: Glen Close *
Best Sup Actress: Regina King (Amy Adams can upset, Rachel Weisz* is my personal choice)
Best Sup Actor: Ali seems to be consensus (but I like Richard E Grant *)
Best Original Screenplay: The Favorite* (Roma can upset)
Best Adapted Screenplay: BlackKKlansman*
Cinematography: Cold War* in an upset over Roma (Roma is close)
Editing: BlackKKlansman (Vice)
Original Score: Black Panther (If Beale street could talk is my second choice)
Original Song: Shallow *
Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody*
Sound Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody (slight edge over A Quiet Place*)
Production Design : Black Panther* (The Favorite can upset)
Visual Effects : Avengers (Ready Player One* can upset)
Costume : Black Panther*
Makeup and Hair: Vice
Short Film Animated: Weekends* (slim lead over Bao)
Short film live: Marguerite* (Skin can upset)
Short film docs: Period. End of Sentence (End Game* is my choice)
I am fairly confident of my choices in most categories. I still have zero idea about original score.
Extra credit for posting here first, Balu!
And I like the way you’ve grouped Best Picture, Best Animated, and Best Documentary together. This should become the new normal — and what better year than this to begin doing it.
Thank you. I had to group them together because they really were my three favorite films of 2019. I liked FreeSolo and Spiderman more than all other Best Pic nominees.
Just want you know your effort hasn’t gone unnoticed. Even the way you arrange the aural categories together in one cluster and the visual categories in another.
*(I’m being so sweet online tonight because I’ve received good news offline today.)
**(Enjoy it while it lasts.)
Very close to my predictions. I have Vice in Film Editing but I would love for BKKK to pull an upset.