All of the major pundits at Gold Derby are 100% in for Roma. That is quite a stronghold. Either they will all be right or all be wrong, but when that many jump on a bandwagon, does that make it too big to fail? Possibly. I think what’s going on is that no one knows what is going to win (because no one can possibly know) and Roma seems like the safest bet. Which is kind of funny because they’re predicting history to be made three ways.
- First Netflix movie to win Best Picture.
- First foreign language film ever to win. Like ever. When you think about the foreign language films that could have won in the past, like the $100 million Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon or Clint Eastwood’s Letters from Iwo Jima, you wonder what about Roma will make the difference? Most are betting on the new Academy members, many of whom are from other countries, to bring a subtitled film into the mainstream. An international wave cresting in a perfect storm, you might say, for the Oscars to do what they’ve never done, what they would never do before.
- The first film in the era of the preferential ballot to win Best Picture with only the DGA as the major precursor win. It’s never happened since 2009. Ordinarily we would expect to see a companion PGA win. The closest thing to this year’s splintering was Moonlight winning with the WGA only. But remember, Moonlight also had Mahershala Ali winning everywhere, adding extra clout from the actors branch. Roma doesn’t have that.
I think it’s funny to see what is essentially a long shot prediction become the status quo, but you know me, it’s all about patterns, precedents and stats. I’ve never really been comfortable predicting based on a whim, which has meant a few wrong calls in the past. When I predicted Moonlight to win I did not predict it on a whim. I predicted it because La La Land had missed receiving a SAG ensemble nomination. Of course, the following year The Shape of Water broke past that prerequisite and won without a SAG ensemble nomination. But it did have PGA. I still didn’t predict it to win because I am stubborn in that regard. I really did think Three Billboards might still pull it out in the end, even without the director nomination.
And then there’s the BAFTA curse. The last time an Oscar Best Picture won the BAFTA was in 2013 with 12 Years a Slave. Since then, there’s been a consistent disconnect. They may have, perhaps, reflected what the Oscars might have done if they didn’t have a preferential ballot. Even in 2014, when Birdman won the PGA/DGA and SAG, the BAFTA went with Boyhood. The Brits then went with The Revenant, La La Land and… Three Billboards last year, which won big at BAFTA just like Roma won big two weeks ago.
As we wind down to the last weekend of Oscar 2019, it’s important to stop and look back at how wide open a year this has been from the beginning. We’ve covered all the reasons why we believe it is wide open — competing agendas, primarily, where a village of well-meaning liberals can’t agree on who they (we) are while living under the Trump administration. That aside from the unified effort to bring “popular movies” into the fold, else risk the dreaded popular film category. The effort to bring more women and people of color into the awards has divided voters into varying camps, where they seem to be trying to satisfy every requirement all at once. That’s just not possible and, at some point, it muddies what film awards are supposed to be about. It’s being said that Oscar night could end with every film winning at least one Oscar.
By my count, three films have what it takes to win. But honestly I’m starting to wonder if this could be a year when a dark horse emerges from the fog to stun everyone. The main thing I know about the Oscars is that the guilds have always mattered. But this year, for Oscar purposes, we have to disregard the very worthy films the WGA chose to reward, because neither of them is a Best Picture nominee. So we’re left with this trio:
Green Book — PGA/Toronto/Globe
Black Panther — SAG
Roma — DGA/BAFTA
History tells us the Best Picture winner has to be one of these three. The high profile pundits are split. Scott Feinberg is all in for Roma. Kris Tapley is going for Green Book. I think Pete Hammond is also going for Green Book unless he’s changed his mind. Tom O’Neil is all in for Roma. A few folks over at Gold Derby are going for Black Panther — which would be, I think, a perfectly fine film to win, although, awkwardly, it would be the third BP winner in the past six years directed by a black director that didn’t collect any hardware for directing.
Are there other potential “upsets” in the mix? The Favourite seems like it has a little bit of last-minute wind at its back and many are wondering how that is going to play out. Will Olivia Colman swoop in and beat Glenn Close? She might. That would suck for the legions of Close fans, but it could happen. Can Emma Stone or Rachel Weisz win in supporting? Maybe. I still think Regina King has that. Can Richard E. Grant beat Mahershala Ali after the pummeling Green Book has taken from the dissenters on social media? Will enough voters deny Ali’s deserving but embattled performance in favor of Richard E. Grant, who carries no troublesome baggage and by all accounts has been superlatively charming on the circuit? They could. We must operate from the fundamental theory we’ve seen proven on more serious ballots: voters are often motivated by temperamental reasons. But yes, if Ali wasn’t so thoroughly great in Green Book, I would be fully on board with Grant winning in a great, great film — and in fact he still could. Remember, this is chronically image-conscious Hollywood, where virtue signaling is always in vogue. If they believe shutting out Green Book bolsters their cred, they certainly will have no problem doing just that, on an anonymous ballot. They want praise and approval for their choices, not scorn.
Once I get to the Dolby Theatre on Sunday, I’ll be better able to read the room and suss out the vibe. I remember the night it was La La Land vs. Moonlight. There was a palpable layer of unease clinging to La La Land. Thousands of liberals tucked into tuxes and ornamented with diamonds were anxious that this love letter to their own livelihood might not be the best way to represent their more earthy and utopian vision of themselves. La La Land had, after all, been saddled with accusations that it had low-key racist undertones. In contrast, when Moonlight was mentioned onstage, it was universally greeted with rapturous, thunderous applause: “Yes, this!” they all seemed to confirm with their clapping, this is the movie that represents us better. Last year, there wasn’t as much palpable tension for Three Billboards, but probably that was due to Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell being so well-liked. Instead it was Martin McDonagh who bore the brunt of the charges that the film was racist.
And so we arrive at our destination this year, at a crossroads where once again one movie has been singled out as a suspicious intruder that threatens the village. I’m curious to see how the audience greets Green Book whenever it’s title is spoken aloud. Curious is one way to say it; dread is another. Jazz tells us that at the Producers Guild, when Green Book won, there wasn’t much applause. We are all in this same community, joined in unison by social media, able to communicate whole ideas across thousands all at once. One reaction there seems to echo the reactions elsewhere. How it will all play out at the Dolby, who can say.
The past few years under Trump have created so much fear and panic in our community, it sometimes seems that nobody trusts anybody anymore. We each have to watch our step. Anyone can be called out for anything at any moment. We can’t aim our wrath Trump because no one on that side cares. They enjoy claiming that we’re triggered and they weirdly want to drink our tears. So instead, to find a normal human reaction to our anguish, we have no choice but to turn on the people who still care, our own allies who still have a shred of common decency. As awful as it is, we’re conditioned to realize that sometimes the only way to feel heard is to yell at good people who still listen. But when we hit our friends where it hurts, the result isn’t respect. It’s rejection.
On that note — let’s get ready hammer the lid shut on this the year’s hideous coffin, put our demons out of their misery, and hope for a much more sane, much more humane and equinimous Oscar season in the promising months ahead.
Meanwhile, let’s try to remember that surprises are meant to be thrilling. Sunday night, what do you think the biggest ones will be?
Green Book winning Bp over Roma would be worst than Crash betting Brokeback Mountain.
Actually bp that year was Capote.
I loved this commentary, Sasha. It’s been a tough awards season for many. Here’s hoping for an exciting Oscar evening.
I feel given the mess and confusion this year, voters will end up awarding Roma in 4 or 5 categories, because it’s the “safe” bet.
Doesn’t anyone agree with me that Rachel Weisz is the MVP of The Favorite.
Yes, especially on second viewing. She’s incredible.
I absolutely do. She is one of the greats and actually deserves to be a two-time winner.
It’s hard for me to point one person out in that excellent trio, but I think Weisz stands out because the character goes on the most surprising journey.
In a way, her character reminds me of Jaime Lannister from Game of Thrones in the sense that she’s involved in a scandalous affair tied up in royal power, but his heart betrays him in the end. (There was genuine love between Cercei and Jaime — not sure there is now — just as there was between Anne and Sarah).
It’s hard. I probably prefer Colman by a smiiiidge. But they’re all fantastic. And all of them have moments or stretches or arc that get me excited when watching in the moment. Great ensemble.
I hope she wins!
No, that was clearly Colman. That is why she is the LEAD even though she doesn’t have more time or bigger role than other two.
Or to put it in another way, would we even be talking about a race for supporting actress if Colman was in that category instead of lead? She would win hands down.
Yes I agree. In part as I’ve been obsessed with her the last 2 years catching up with 5 or 6 films she made in recent years and also as she is fascinating to observe in The Favourite. And as much as I love Olivia Colman I was disappointed she wasn’t as explored as much as the other two. It’s why I believe she’s in the wrong category. But I’m thrilled she is finally getting international recognition.
Rachel Weisz films: Denial, Complete Unknown, My Cousin Rachel, The Light Between Oceans, The Mercy and as yet unseen but sitting on my shelf is Disobedience
In performance:
1. Weisz
2. Colman
3. Stone
In Lanthimos points (awarded by how obviously Lanthimos-style the performance was):
1. Stone
2. Colman
3. Weisz
Colman, for me. Then Stone. 🙂
I’m all ready for the meltdown when Green Book or The Favourite (out of pure shock and disbelief) wins BP.
Not seeing that meltdown at all. ROMA has been the clear winner for quite some time.
To be fair – that’s what they said about La La Land. I think anything can happen with the preferential ballot.
To be fair – that’s what they said about La La Land. I think anything can happen with the preferential ballot.
Yes, anything can happen with the preferential ballot and to be sure the BP category seems to be the one of the Big 6 where an upset could happen. I think there were MOONLIGHT predictions though that year, whereas the expectation for ROMA is practically unanimous.
The latest: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/21/movies/oscars-2019-nominations-predictions.html?fbclid=IwAR2r_i6i59C43e88dvw2uZGRmGog5SunfxLaFH8Exk-7CRhfXoPsLO3UfeM
Yes, anything can happen with the preferential ballot and to be sure the BP category seems to be the one of the Big 6 where an upset could happen. I think there were MOONLIGHT predictions though that year, whereas the expectation for ROMA is practically unanimous.
The latest: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/21/movies/oscars-2019-nominations-predictions.html?fbclid=IwAR2r_i6i59C43e88dvw2uZGRmGog5SunfxLaFH8Exk-7CRhfXoPsLO3UfeM
Barely anyone predicted Moonlight (I believe Sasha was the only GD expert to predict it?), and those that did were roundly dismissed. Too many experts rested on their BAFTA laurels and paid the price, and this may be happening again. The La La Land/Moonlight and Roma/Green Book comparison is apt for the most part I think. Except of course the reaction if it happens will be completely inverted!
Supporting Actress is ripe for an upset too…
Well, yes Green Book is still in the hunt here, but I suspect it will fall short. As to Best Supporting Actress, you are right that is the other category of the Big 6 where we could see a name other than King’s announced. Adams and Weisz are in strong contention.
Hey at least that would be exciting! I think Roma is one of the best films of the year, but I’m not opposed to a little drama.
I just thought I’d share this beautiful piece on Roma in The Atlantic.
Words can’t express how much I love this film, and a victory for it is a victory in so many levels.
http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2019/02/roma-alfonso-cuaron-cleo-domestic-work-children-emotional-labor-love/582997/?utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_content=5c6feb6400bd4700011a4be0_ta&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook
Visual Effects won’t go to Avengers. Leaning to First Man like Interstellar. Space movie considered disappointment. Got the same nominations except Interstellar got the score nod. Or even Christopher Robin like The Jungle Book but that wasn’t as big as a hit to win on its sole nomination.
I just changed my VE prediction to Ready Player One because, for one, the effects are amazing and aplenty … and two, all this Infinity War OR First Man could present a REAL split — the kind we always talk about, rarely happens, but when it does, we all have our uhhh huhhhh, duhhhh, of course Ready Player One’s victory makes sense (in hindsight).
This is a year where if literally every front runner lost to someone else I’d be just as if not more happy… I don’t know if that’s sad or exciting.
So who’s winning Live Action Short? I’m not feeling Marguerite. It seems that at the official Oscars program Detainment was the favorite of those in the auditorium
Skin is the only American entry and I think most voters will resonate with its message considering the gun violence problem.
That was the argument for DeKalb Elementary last year as well, though
So which one???
In my experience the winners are rarely grim and are often uplifting stories about making a human connection (The Shore is the newest one that I’m not certain about whether it’s like that) and Marguerite seems to be the only film from this year’s lineup that’s like that.
After watching all trailers to get at least a vague clue about the candidates I picked Marguerite, too.
Still not sure if I might switch Doc short from Period. End of sentence to End Game – that one is about the dying process in a hospital, but in a very uplifting, life embracing way. Looks like a winner to me.
DeKalb was the best of the five last year. (It’s better than this year’s five.) I still think about it. Such an understated and profound little film.
Ugh, Skin the WORST of the five. What a shoddily directed, on-the-nose metaphor. And I say this as a huge fan of Danielle Macdonald (Patti Cake$) who plays the mom. This means it will probably win; this category is pretty reliable in picking uninspired winners.
Although Marguerite feels like the winner because it’s not about killing or traumatizing boys, I might go with Detainment which is the most intense. Most voters may not know (or care) about the controversies surrounding it.
Faure is the most beautiful of the five, in my opinion.
The Daily Mail will burst several blood vessels if Detainment wins.
I agree about Fauve.
My pick is Mother/Madre – IMO the most cinematic and competently made of the live action shorts. If I have learned anything, it’s the concensus pic/seemingly obvious winner rarely wins here.
If Detainment wins, it will cause uproar in the UK.
“I’m not feeling Marguerite.”
Exactly.
It’s probably Skin, honestly. I have Mother.
Someone help me. Should I pick Emily Blunt to win lead or supporting?
I think she’ll win both. Lead for Sicario, and Supporting for The Devil Wears Prada.
If only. Ugh.
The category I’m struggling the most with is Film Editing. Vice won Bafta but the Oscars usually go for the Drama ACE Eddie winner.
I don’t think Comedy and Drama should be much of a concern, as those category placements are predetermined and are not indicative of the strength of the films. What I’m more concerned about is that Vice lost the Eddie to The Favourite.
When was the last time a comedy won Film Editing? I know you’re predicting The Favourite so let’s say it’s between the ACE Eddie winners BR and TF. The Oscars always go for the movie with the most visible/ flashiest Editing.
They do, but wouldn’t that be Vice?
But then, why did Vice lose the Eddie?
It’s a puzzling category, you’re right.
My two reasons to pick The Favourite is
1. Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody might have enough people that dislike them to stop them from winning
2. The Favourite actually beat the BAFTA winner at the ACE, so it clearly has more strength than it’s obvious. It’s just unclear how much more.
I’ll laugh my ass out if Blackkklansman wins.
It had the best Editing in my opinion.
It’s a clusterfuck indeed.
I’m wondering if the Vice ACE loss was due to the guild actually having a deeper understanding of editing and thus turning away from Vice whereas the Academy might not be as tasteful in their choices
McKay’s style didn’t win over voters with The Big Short and it’s basically the same exact technique in Vice.
BAFTA’s choice befuddled me. They should have gone with BR or TF and spare us all this drama and confusion. The same with Visual Effects, they went for the worst of the bunch. Those fools.
Right. It easily could have gone to something else … but they picked Vice. I think that means something.
I think they just wanted to give Vice something.
Green Book is my number 2 here – against conventional wisdom.
I don’t like BR much, but if it wins it’s for the Live Aid sequence alone… The only one I really DON’T want to win is GB… I’m rooting for BKKKM to pull off a miracle here.
Also, Rocketman’s full trailer is out, and it looks painfully like Bohemian Rhapsody.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXwmbpV2fBs
Except no issues with the director, or with dying in complicated ways, or with underplaying gay themes. Taron Egerton said there will be full-on kissing and even sex scenes.
I just noticed that Dexter Fletcher is the director! It will be good to see him finally get credit for this film. If they market it well and emphasise this connection to BR, it could help to bring BR’s audience to this film, ensuring box office success.
Didn’t Egerton actually do all his own singing too? He’s already more deserving of BA than Malek is.
Egerton has a beautiful voice, but it doesn’t sound like Elton John. I actually think this is a good thing, and I’m looking forward to his interpretation.
Agreed.
Can someone tell me if Mexico ever won for best foreign film? I believe it hasn’t, right?
I believe so too.
No. Roma is the 9th nomination for Mexico, no wins so far. Mexico was nominated in 1960 (Macario), 1961 (The Important Man), 1962 (Tlayucan), 1975 (Letters From Marusia), 2000 (Amores Perros), 2002 (El Crimen del Padre Amaro), 2006 (Pan’s Labyrinth), 2010 (Biutiful), and 2018 (Roma).
I know they’re co-productions but I always considered Pan’s Labyrinth and Biutiful as Spanish films, not Mexican. Both are set in Spain.
These films were selected by a national committee to officially represent Mexico at the Oscars, probably because their directors are Mexicans and wanted to honor their homeland.
It happens all the time: ‘Amour’ won for Austria even tough it’s a French film made by an Austrian director. But that’s the way it works, it’s often the nationality of the director that decides which country in-demand films will represent.
Because Mexican directors keep dominating the main categories.
Biggest surprises you asked?
Colman, E. Grant, Foreign Language and Cinematography. Hoping for these.
Supporting Actress looks like a race between King and Adams. If only Weisz hasn’t won before then she’d be the frontrunner. the same way I’m hesitant on Ali winning again aside from there wasn’t anything special on his performance on Green Book.
After seeing The Favorite I hope that Rachel Weisz. I thought she was the MVP of the film by far.
I should my entire family hates hates Roma and The Favorite. They don’t understand why a wonderful well told film like Green Book wouldn’t obviously win. To be fair its my number 2 of the year.
Green Book is your number 2, even though you haven’t seen it? That’s confusing. There is still time to see it, so go and see it now! I saw it late, too.
Wow I have no idea why I wrote haven’t seen Green Book when I have seen it.
You can watching Green Book streaming on Amazon or FandangoNow! That’s what I did!
Even if one thinks that Green Book is wonderful and well told, that doesn’t mean it should be crowned the Best Film of the Year. Perhaps we should get a little more ambitious when deciding about the best piece in an entire art form.
With a season like this one there are bound to be surprises . Just where? Supp Actress is inevitable as there is no frontrunner. I don’t see Marina or Emma prevailing but any of the remaining three would be interesting. It would be a huge shock if Marina or Emma did win! I don’t see Richard E Grant winning. Close and Malek are pretty sure things so is Cuaron.
Best Picture will potentially be where a shock could emerge. I remember last year thinking moments before best picture I had no idea who would prevail. Could have been 3 billboards,with its acting wins even get out with its screenplay win. Shape of water had score and production design. Director was expected but the sag omission and BAFTA loss was telling.
Roma Green Book The Favourite Black Panther could all take it. Can’t see the other 4 getting there .
Not long to wait now ……
I think there are viables chances for major upsets in:
Picture – like The Favourite
S.Actress – like Adams, after all. Or de Tavira.
Visual Effects – Read Player One.
The Favourite would be an upset, but not a major one.
I shifted my prediction from Mahershala Ali to Richard E. Grant last night. I was looking through the photos of him with literally everyone in the recent awards shows and got the feeling that his endearing nature, and a subtle ‘overdue’ status, when blended with the fact that Ali only won two years ago, might be enough to buck the trend and secure a win for him (yes, even though Ali’s won everywhere).
And, for some reason, I still don’t think that Roma or Green Book is going to win Best Picture.
Genuine question for those in the know because I am beginning to find this all quite convincing: in the modern era has anybody won everything Ali has won and then lost the Oscar?
I don’t think so, and I honestly don’t think my theory holds water at all.
I do think, though, that a Richard E. Grant win would be one of the most entertaining moments of the night (especially if they put it up early on). Can you imagine what kind of acceptance speech he would give?
Actually, possibly closest win would be Adrien Brody, who upset both Jack Nicholson and Daniel Day Lewis to win.
If he won it’d be a great moment indeed! I just can’t see both supporting frontrunners missing and I truly believe Weisz is winning.
I can see a Weisz win, but I feel that she’ll vote split on that one. I don’t think that Regina King is going to win, but I can’t imagine anyone else taking it.
Who is your supporting actress pick?
I’ve got Marina de Tavira as a surprise win.
Really picking winners here, aren’t I?
So Tavira going to win Best Supporting Actress and Roma isn’t going to win BP?
Makes a lot of sense.
I’ll say this… I’m not applying a heck of a lot of logic to my predictions here.
I should clarify – I think what everyone is predicting will happen – Roma BP, Roma BP, Close, Malek, Ali, King. But, that’s not exactly that fun to predict, so to make the event a little more entertaining for myself, I’m going to go with off the wall predictions.
I do all of that all the time too but when I do I like to do it in a narrative so my picks make sense in terms of each other – so for your description Tavira pick I would only pick it if I was predicting a Roma sweep so I could build a narrative that could potentially happen – I think a Tavira win with a Roma loss feels like a throwaway thing because you’ll get one of those wrong.
I don’t think there’ll be a Roma sweep (I’ve got it winning four awards all up), I do think that a Best Director win could be enough to secure it an acting win as well.
Stranger things have happened! I’ve got to admit I had a punt on Tavira (and Weisz) because the odds were so favourable.
I figure, sure, King and Ali are likely to win, but swinging for the fences is a little more fun.
Hey, the way this year has been swing away. I go for King too but the way this race has been, it’s not a lock anymore.
If Tavira wins Supporting Actress, one of the first awards of the night, then it’s safe to say Roma will win best picture.
“And, for some reason, I still don’t think that Roma or Green Book is going to win Best Picture.”
So what DO you think will win?
Off Topic:
I REALLY hope, Spike Lee – who was present – inmediately starts writting a film about Zion Williamson’s injury at the NCAA game. The film writes itself. Obama and Lee in the audience, the injury owed to Nike’s shoe malfunction. Where did Nike produce that shoe, with which quality of salary and work conditions? Whey a future star wouldn’t be earning as much as he should while the NCAA produce millions that go directly to the University? Why Obama has been silent about the sport-related explotation of students (and an obviously corrupt education system and also about the behaviour of american corporations abroad working with almost slave workers?
Oddly enough, the only american film that directly aimed to these facts, I rewatched it a couple of days ago: David Zucker’s “BASEketball”, with Trey Parker and Matt Stone. The only mainstream film, I remember, to have dealt with this (sport wise… fashion wise, it was “Zoolander”, also another spoof).
Why Obama has been silent about the sport-related explotation of students
Update: Obama isn’t the president anymore.
Update 2: Obama has no control over Nike or the NCAA or the ACC, and he never did. Because in America, presidents can’t wave a magic wand and tell private entities what to do.
Surprisingly, former presidents have even less power than current presidents.
If you think American presidents can force college sports orgs to do what’s right, you should tweet at the current president we’re stuck with now. See how that goes.
We’re stuck with Trump because a lot of people (you included) thought 2016 would be a good time to split liberals into several opposing factions. And many people (you included) thought the only candidate who could beat Trump was not good enough for you.
Ryan, are you aware how ridiculous your reply is? Obama WAS president and never did anything about those matters. That’s my point.
I am of the belief, human beings shouldn’t be exploited. Of course, you may differ in your opinion, but I am aware you live in a society that strongly believes that basic human rights as education, health, food or water have to depend on your income and your luck in life.
And again, on Hillary: she’s a corporate fascist (Obama, too), as all socialdemocrats. Not a socialist and not left by any means. If you wanted to vote LEFT, you should have voted for Jill Stein and the Green Party, but you didn’t because of the phallacy that you needed a corporate fascist to stop a populist fascist like Trump. If you want, I can explain to you, why they’re just two different sides of the same coin, and why I thought – and still think – Democrats are more dangerous than Republicans. Remember my background, I deeply know the implications of each party and politcal view, because they change name but transfer to every other single country in the world.
But for starters you should be starting by critically reading this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_economics
I can summarize to you: keynesianim states that if the working class (and middle class) can’t consume, the system collapses by its base, therefore you need to give a “decent” income to the poor and middle class, for capitalism to survive. People understands this as “socialism” or “left” when it is actually the contrary, a protection of corporations, banks, stock markets, by at least giving some coins to the poor so they don’t revolt and endanger the system. Keynes supporters become corporate fascists in the end: they protect the corporations, and are corporations the ones that promote keyensianism normally, so people is not aware of socialism or comunism as alternatives to organize a society and economy.
Furthermore, by NOT forbidding products and services made with semislave or slave labour abroad, corporate fascists take down work conditions, wages and labor rights in their own countries, in benefit of the corporations. There comes the difference between Republican and Democrats. Democrats aren’t as interested in protecting the inner production as Republicans, and Trump happens to be a billionaire with his billionaire friends using the Oval Office to make business… he was unwilling to go to war in Syria, and he was willing to soften the tension with Russia and China, corporate pressure has made him change his politics (using the media and social networks as way to pressure him). Hillary was all out on bombing Syria and threatening both North Korea and Russia all during her campaigning. That should give you a hint, who was the more dangerous of the two… the warmonger or the lazy millionaire only interested in his own benefit…
I hope that you don’t read this as a defense of Trump, by any means. You don’t have to defend one, to criticize the another one.
Plus, time to reflect on WHY the USA never gives a chance to a third or fourth option and always moves between black and extremely dark grey. Remember also: Lincoln was Republican.
Corporate Fascist? What does that even mean? You can’t throw together scary words (at least in the hard-left world) and just hope they will sound scarier together.
Corporate fascism: governments selected by corporate world, which promotes their leaders in the media, and that work actively favoring the lobbies. Since 2007, it’s the predominant in the NATO countries. Russia in exchange, is populist fascism, as Trump.
Russia would like everyone to think it’s populist fascism, but considering the buddy/buddy relations between the government and the 1% there, and the fact that Putin himself is one of the biggest oligarchs in the country (if not THE biggest), it’s most definitely corporate fascism pretending it isn’t. Also, Jill Stein appears to have been in cahoots w/the Russians in siphoning off disgruntled hard-leftists’ support from the Democrats–like it or not (and I don’t), the U.S. is still a two-party state, and anyone running as a third-party candidate who (1) thinks they honestly have a shot at winning, and (2) claims they aren’t acting as a spoiler for one party or another, is fooling themselves, a large chunk of the electorate or both.
There’s a thing called pragmatism which, it appears, you haven’t learned yet, but is extremely important at times, particular when dealing with elections where one candidate–and, more importantly, the party they represent–is clearly and blatantly the greater evil. Did I vote for Bernie in the primary? Yes, because I agreed with more of his positions, and for other reasons I won’t get into here, because I don’t want to rehash 2016 with Sasha. (Believe me, though, I’m about as far from a “Bernie Bro” as it’s possible to get.) Did I vote for Hillary in November? Goddamn right I did, because I could already see just how bad Mango Mussolini and his merry men were going to be, and she was the only candidate who could have stopped him. Have you ever heard the phrase “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”? You might want to keep it in mind come election time, because it’s crucially important…sorry if this pops your pure, B&W, hard-left bubble, but it’s true.
OK, then…now where were we? Ah, yes, the Oscars… *smiles*
Jill Stein is a Putin shill. A Putin pawn. Putin used Jill Stein to leech votes from naive liberals. How clueless are you not to know that?
If I had been stupid enough to vote for Jill Stein then fucking Jill Stein would have had 1,400,001 votes. Instead of 1,400,000 votes.
So I would have wasted my vote the same stupid way that 1,400,000 jackasses did.
Jill Stein needed 65 million votes. Not 1.4 million.
You understand that, right?
Do you not see how dumb you sound when you wag your finger at me and tell me I should have joined 1.4 million pouty little shits – -to vote for an inexperienced lamebrain who had ZERO chance of winning?
If you think 65 million Americans are going to vote for a crackpot pawn of Putin like Jill Stein, then you know fucking nothing about how politics works.
Christ, you get a grade of ‘A’ in your college PoliSci class, and you think you understand the complexity of the situation over here. I assure you that you do not.
Blah blah blah will you please stop whining about Obama.
Barack Obama is not the fucking boogeyman who’s responsible for the shit the world is in right now.
So, Greens are Putin pawns. Like ever heard of Petra Kelly? Lol, Ryan, go back to school.
No, YOU go back to school–I don’t know which country you claim to represent (and if you really were an official representative at some point, they damn sure didn’t get their money’s worth for your plane/bus/train ticket), but you obviously know jack shit about American politics, political parties, realpolitik, or anything else about how the system works. Kindly bugger off, and work on taking that log out of your own eye before you start fucking around with tweezers on the splinters in ours, got it?
“I don’t want to talk to you no more, you empty-headed
animal-food-trough wiper. I fart in your general direction. Your mother
was a hamster, and your father smelt of elderberries. Now, go away before I taunt you some more.” (Speaking of a movie that should have won an Oscar…)
Barack Obama is not the fucking boogeyman who’s responsible for the shit the world is in right now.
I don’t suppose there’s any way we can arrange for that to be skywritten over the White House, is there, Ryan? Me thinks the current occupant seems to be suffering from precisely this delusion, and while it might not set him straight (although the paranoid tweets would provide us with endless amusement and memes for days, I tell you, DAYS), the idea of it being written in the sky a la “SURRENDER DOROTHY” really cracks me up.
“Remember also: Lincoln was Republican.”
Most sickening thing anyone has written on this site in months. You sound like a Trumpnik. That’s what MAGAts say.
You claim to know what names of political parties mean –woo-hoo — as if a fucking name means shit. You seem to be ignorant about slippery Orwellian word appropriation.
Republicans of 1865 believed entirely different things than the GOP of today. They stood for entirely different values 150 years ago. I’m shocked that you never learned that in PoliSci 101.
How embarrassing for you.
But thanks for revealing the shallowness of your understanding of American politics.
And by the way, your favorite movie Bohemian Rhapsody is a half-baked turd that quickly slips off its shish-kabob stick.
But somehow you think that mess is a masterpiece. Apparently none of the film classes you took were able to teach good taste. So quit acting like a few classes you passed make you an expert about anything.
A few classes you passed… did you know I was representing my country at diplomatic level on international meetings? Lol
(on why America is stuck with Trump)
not my fault. You people are stuck with Trump (and that Dem/Rep phallacy) because of your inability to think out of the box. You guys are stuck with the same nightmarish system for over 200 years! Trump is the logical outcome of the road you’ve been following for centuries, it was a matter of time, after making more difficult to educate or inform people and manipulating the masses into an idiocracy.
If this were before the Preferential ballot, I’d say the chances of ROMA being upset would be even greater. While there will certainly be a backlash in some quarters with voters dumping the Cuaron movie to the bottom half of their ballot, there isn’t likely to be enough to outweigh those who have it in the top spot. (or, at the very least, in their top 3)
Since the Preferential ballot came in, we have seen a few seemingly unlikely winners with MOONLIGHT, SPOTLIGHT and even SHAPE OF WATER. The math is fuzzy now, and even fuzzier with all the new members.
As far as a major surprise that could happen: Spike Lee winning Best Director. He’d bring the house down.
Please make post on Seth Myers send up of African American Oscar films!!’ that just happened right now !
Fantastically funny and spot on. Brilliant
Highlights how stupid and old green book is!
The weird thing is how both Seth Myers and SNL joked about Green Book’s race issue recently. Is it that widely known?
Can someone confirming the BP voting is optional preferential in that voters don’t have to put 1 to 8 to make their vote count?
They can list as few as they want, but if the movies they pick get eliminated then their BP vote becomes irrelevant. It doesn’t change anything about it being preferential.
Finally got to watch Green Book. I think I’d best describe it as a broad, heart-warming, very-enjoyable, well-intentioned, live-action cartoon. To my shame, I still haven’t seen Roma.
I feel Green Book is just too old-fashioned to win. The type of film that has stopped winning Best Picture recently. With an expanded, expanding and increasingly international Academy membership I don’t see why this year’s Best Picture winner should herald a triumphant return to the old-fashioned and very American movie.
The Favourite might be a bigger contender than Green Book? Period piece yet ultra modern. Dramatic yet funny. Fabulous dialogue and acting. A unique film that made Mary Queen of Scots look instantly old fashioned. People who love The Favourite absolutely love it. Massive haul of nominations with both BAFTA and AMPAS.
But still, it is a bit of a harsh and cynical watch? And, in my opinion, it’s a truly feminist film, which may ultimately glass-ceiling its Best Picture prospects at a top rank of number 2 or 3.
As politics and Trump and The Wall always seem to be entwined with Oscar vote-casting decisions then, sight-unseen, I think it just has to be Roma.
You really should see Roma. It is easy to watch on Netflix. I can tell you there is no Wall and very little politics in the foreground. It is simply a slice of life in Mexico City, with nothing overtly political.
I’ve finally seen Roma. Lives up to the hype. I was spellbound. A magnificent achievement. Gorgeous. Cuarón is a genius.
I have to admit that there were moments that I did get a little bored, a little restless. Similar to the moments I experienced watching Boyhood.
I can absolutely see Roma winning Best Picture, and yes although it’s political timeliness is certainly not going to have hurt it come Sunday, independent of that it would still indeed be a worthy winner.
I think I’d best describe your post as a witless piece of condescension. Don Shirley’s speech in the rain where he says that for some people he’s not black enough, for others not white enough, for still others not man enough, ending by saying So you tell me, Tony, just who am I? — none of that remotely resembled a cartoon. Being told where you can sit to dine, that you must use an outhouse instead of regular bathroom facilities, along with the very real threat that white racist law enforcement officers at their whim could beat the crap out of you — or much, much worse — don’t strike me as cartoon-like circumstances. So I’m just wondering in what ways and at what moments “Green Book” struck you as a long “Simpsons” episode.
100% agree my Aussie mate hope you are well
Thanks for your kind good wishes.
Hello fellow Aussies. Just how many of us are there here?!
Hi Andrew. I think you meant to reply to fellow Aussie Aaron Reichwald. Cheers!
I replied to you are you not one?
Aaron Reichwald gets confused in many of his posts, you may notice. As far as I can tell, the only Aussies here are you, The Curb AU and “daveinprogress”, as I mentioned in my post below.
No, I’m not. But I hope to visit your lovely country one day! All best.
*raises hand*
“daveinprogress” is another. I’m not, I’m a Pom, sorry.
Oh wow. I’m just now understanding. Duh. I’m not an Aussie nor in Australia. I’m in New York City. Sorry. But I’m glad that Aussie fellowship seems to be being shared. It’s great that you Aussie countrymen are finding one another on this site!
Easy get mixed up mate my bad still your insights great to chat to cheers
Thanks. Cheers.
I suppose there was a streak of condescension in there. I have mixed feelings about the film. But it genuinely was heartwarming. The end sequence contains a gentle touch of It’s A Wonderful Life magic.
I don’t really understand what the controversy about the film was about. I saw two guys, each with different strengths and weaknesses, helping each other, teaching each other, and gradually befriending and bonding with each other. In different ways they both learnt to lower their guard and each was a better person for journeying with the other. I suspect viewers who had a serious problem with the film were (unfairly) looking for issues to have?
I genuinely liked it, enjoyed the chemistry between the two leads, and laughed a lot. A good natured, kind, hugely enjoyable and unashamedly schmaltzy movie that engaged me from beginning to end and left me with a big smile on my face.
I suppose by “cartoon” I meant that I found some of the characters excessively stereotypical to the point of unintentional parody, there was overacting happening, and some of the scenes that were intended to be moving had a different effect on me. To put it another way: maybe I found, sometimes, the playing for laughs diluted the impact of the drama? I do hope that’s a kinder and fairer description.
I won’t go into more elaboration because I’m not looking for an argument. I hope what’s above, while still providing a true reflection of my feelings, also now provides a more rounded and palatable description of my view of the film.
More rounded and palatable indeed. I replied to you as I did because I don’t believe that genuine pain should ever be belittled. Its causes and remedies in the society we can all reflect on and discuss. But misery, which I believe Don Shirley at some points in his life underwent — implacably, and I wish the movie had dug a bit deeper into it — can’t be reduced to anything else. It’s now clear to me that such a diminution of Don Shirley’s suffering was definitely not what you intended. It’s exciting and promising that you enjoyed the movie as much as you did, by which I mean, I hope it gets many more viewers just like you. Peace out.
PERIODIC REMINDER:
Michael Fassbender in Prometheus/Alien: Covenant > All the acting nominees in 2019.
Toni Collette- Hereditary
She’s not a nominee.
Read above
also, Matt Dillon in The House that Jack Built, Toni Colette in Hereditary or Simon Russell Beale in The Death of Stalin. Well, at least of the nominees I’ve seen…
… with the exception of Rami Malek. He’s freaking fantastic capturing the inmeasureable charisma of Freddie Mercury, and is going to be one of the most deserving Oscar winners in history. Whatever you like BR or not, you can’t deny Malek’s magnetic performance that makes you forget plenty of times, he’s an actor and not the real thing.
I’m so pleased you mentioned Simon Russell Beale. He was such a revelation for me. I thought I knew all the great British actors but he just stole the film
I think GD is delusional… it’s still a neck-a-neck race between three horses:
Green Book will be winning Original Screenplay and Supporting Actor
Roma will be winning Director, Cinematography and Foreign Film
Bohemian Rhapsody will be winning Actor, Film Editing and at least Sound Mixing.
Neither The Favourite, Black Panther, A Star is Born, BlacKkKlansman or Vice have solid almost-locked important victories.
The Favourite’s most likely victories – if any – are Costume and Production Design
Black Panther’s technicals aren’t locked by any means at any category
A Star is Born, Song aside, has nothing locked. I am guessing Adapted is coming, too, but that’s still more a hunch than a certainity
Vice is only locked – and that’s debatable – at Make Up. It CAN win Editing and Supporting Actress, but again, far from being even frontrunner.
BlacKkKlansman is the most interesting of the 5, as it really can upset at Film Editing and Director for various reasons, plus in Adapted is the most likely winner – even if really far from being a lock.
If I had to bet: Bohemian Rhapsody is taking the big one. As hours go by, I can’t deny who strong it has been through the critical voting time for the win, while Green Book slightly faded and Roma is still winning Foreign Film anyways.
So, my NGNG bets are:
Bohemian Rhapsody winning 4 or 5 of its noms, including Best Picture. The one “dancing” is Sound Editing.
Amy Adams wins Supporting Actress
A Quiet Place wins Sound Editing
You ought to put actual money on BR if you haven’t already. The odds are in your favour!
Yeah – the bookmakers deserve to make some easy money every now and then too… 🙂 They work hard, they’re dedicated… They’ve earned it!
Yeah – the bookmakers deserve to make some easy money every now and then too… 🙂 They work hard, they’re dedicated… They’ve earned it!
On the one hand, can’t see Adams with lack of any major percusors…
That said, we don’t know who came in second in SAG so possible it was her and Weisz splitting vote (plus Oscar snub) that pushed Blunt to win. In this case, a Weisz/King split might benefit Adams.
I still think King but as a friend pointed out, it would be just like the Academy to give it to Adams for her least-deserving performance.
The Favourite has screenplay pretty much locked, if you ask me.
We will see. I think, Green Book has this one locked up, but…
It’s a nice headline but it’s not true. It’s not 100% at gold derby
27 Roma
4 Green Book including Sasha
3 Black Panther
Are you doing Big Bad Prediction Charts this year?
I voted on the final Oscar ballot below for my personal choices, not my predictions. I hope I haven’t missed the Predict the Oscars contest. I’ll wait for that.
That one was for your choices, but the prediction contest is already up and running! I’m not sure about the deadline, but seek it out quickly.
Thanks. I’ll scroll back to try to find it.
Fuck it – since everyone’s going Roma, I’ll NGNG switch to The Favourite.
I don’t really know that it’s a ngng tbh – I’m almost at the point where I think either all or none of the nominees in picture would be ngng.
I’d personally argue predicting a winner that none of the experts on Gold Derby are picking is a gutsy move.
I didn’t realise none of them were – that’s nuts! And looking through them, a bunch are picking black panther… I really don’t get that – despite the fact that I’ve settled into Roma (it’s my prediction and I have arguments why that is but I’m not really confident in anything there), it seems nuts to me that there is such a consensus around Roma. I would’ve thought this year a few would have Roma, a few on Green Book, a few on The Favourite, maybe a couple of BlacKKKlansman and one of Black Panther but that’s not what we are seeing at all!
Still I tend to think of odds less in terms of what people are predicting and more what logically has a shot at winning since they all night be in Roma but they may all be like me- unsure if that is the right place to be.
I can see a narrative for Black Panther – it won SAG, it’s a massive blockbuster that’s about something, and it’s a way of saying that ‘we don’t need the popular Oscar’ category. Sure, no script, no acting, and no director nomination make it extremely unlikely, but stranger things have happened.
“Sure, no script, no acting, and no director nomination make it extremely unlikely, but stranger things have happened.”
Again: no, they simply haven’t. Not for Best Picture at the Oscars…
It is weird that none of them are. It has a lot of strengths. Self-appointed expert Claudiu here is I gather.
I think the reason nobody is predicting The Favourite is that it has won no major guild or precursor, although it was impressive that it won ACE over Green Book and Vice. However, they are forgetting that it would have won WGA Original Screenplay if it had been eligible, over Roma and Green Book, and that is huge. It also won the most BAFTAs, and may have won Best Film if they weren’t afraid of seeming parochial by voting for a British film.
Apart from the last sentence I totally agree! That is why I almost picked it for picture myself… But I don’t agree with the last sentence, BAFTA has plenty given British film and best film to the same film (including last year). I can’t think of a single example where a British film lost best picture at the BAFTAs and won at the Oscars. If someone can come up with enough examples I may be convinced that this is normal and flip for the favourite. As it stands I think that’s too much of an issue for it.
I’m not predicting The Favourite, I was just explaining why it isn’t “nuts” that nobody is predicting it, as you said in your first line above. BAFTA voted for Three Billboards because that seemed like a consensus winner that had won several Best Film prizes from other groups before coming to BAFTA. If they voted for The Favourite, they would be the first group to do so. I can see why they would be unwilling to do that.
I think BAFTA wanted to predict or foreshadow the Oscars. And they think that Roma is going to win there. I think that’s why they refrained from voting for TF for Best Film and went for Roma.
Roma IS going to win, I think you mean.
Yes, I edited.
BAFTA uses plurality. Oscar uses preferential. In such a competitive year like this, that matters a lot.
I appreciate the analysis, but it has only won ACE. It didn’t win WGA or BAFTA (and we don’t know for sure whether it would have won the former or how close it was to winning the latter).
Winning 7 awards at BAFTA and not winning Best Film is actually an issue in some ways. It might be the same at the Oscars (pick up 2-4 wins, including one or two in major categories, and still miss out on BP).
We BASICALLY know for sure, given what did win the WGA…
But I think everything considered the top 3 are Roma, Green Book, The Favourite (in whatever order you want)
Agreed:
1. Roma
2. Green Book
3. The Favourite
4. BlacKkKlansman
All others are “long shots” (whatever that means this year).
Agreed:
1. Roma
2. Green Book
3. The Favourite
4. BlacKkKlansman
All others are “long shots” (whatever that means this year).
If I had to predict Best Picture, I’d order them as below.
I just find BR & ASIB more threatening than Black Panther (which won a weak SAG and didn’t back it up with WGA, plus lacks in important stats). I suspect Vice will continue to punch above its weight and get a lot of podium finishes on the night, might even win 1-3 Oscars, but like BlacKkKlansman just isn’t threatening enough to be a serious Picture challenger.
Green Book
Roma
The Favourite
A Star is Born
Bohemian Rhapsody
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Vice
So the reason I decided to go with the “safe” bet and go with Roma is that originally I was using the crouching tiger argument then someone pointed out that crouching tiger lost at both BAFTA and Critics choice (it wasn’t nominated at the latter I believe) where they have foreign categories that it can win. Since Roma won those it has proven that it can win both awards at a single ceremony – basically I’m saying it would be breaking a stat at Oscar that it’s already broken twice this season so it’s not a stretch to say it’s a stat that Roma has the ability to break. In saying this I’m not confident at all, I feel like Green Book losing wga was a big issue and so I don’t think it’s PGA win would push it through so the only other place in left considering is the Favourite (if I can then assume that maybe it would’ve won wga then it could win) but I just can’t shake the feeling that the British film should’ve won at BAFTA – does anyone have a stat of British films that lost at Bafta but won at Oscar? I’d be interested to see it.
The Netflix thing still gives me pause but I’m sticking with Roma until I see a good argument for something else – yes it feels like a longshot as Sasha says but so does everything else!
When people keep saying how ONE movie cannot win or providing doubts, you know that that movie is the frontrunner. And they’re just expressing their nervousness. You don’t hear Sasha and other pundits talk about how they doubt Green Book would win, even though GB has more hurdles to overcome.
But the front runner doesn’t always win. Far from it.
Not saying that it will. Just saying that it’s perceived as such.
Well, we’re both saying it will. 🙂 Just not here. (I’m assuming Roma is your BP prediction.)
Ha. Yes, but that wasn’t the point of my reply to Alex, which was ppl only chew fats over the perceived frontrunner.
Yes, I picked Roma with Favourite as the only possible alternate.
Ha. Yes, but that wasn’t the point of my reply to Alex, which was ppl only chew fats over the perceived frontrunner.
Yes, I picked Roma with Favourite as the only possible alternate.
For me at least the Roma win at BAFTA seemed inevitable before the BAFTA nominations. People always overestimate British films at BAFTA which is why most were so sure The Favourite was going to be the winner of the top prize. Foreign films have always been close to BAFTA’s heart, especially arty fare such as Roma.
All Roma’s win at BAFTA indicates to me is that if Oscar didn’t have a preferential ballot, it would easily win Best Picture.
You say foreign films are close to BAFTAs heart but last time a foreign film won was in the early 80s and it was a French film, which makes more sense for BAFTA because France and Britain are very limited countries… Roma makes more sense to resonate with the Oscars some they are still primarily American and America and Mexico are very linked countries. So to me it winning BAFTA 1. Proves that it can win awards where foreign films some normally win (where they also have a foreign category) and 2. Gives it a win that feels less likely than it does at the Oscars.
Basically if we are saying Roma v the favourite then BAFTA to me says okay Roma will win but if the narrative is Roma v Green Book – green book is such an American film that I never expected it to win at BAFTA so in that tossup I don’t think it means too much. It’s the WGA that leaves me not so convinced on Green Book because it feels like it needs screenplay to win.
The preferential ballot is the right thing to bring up though – I haven’t spoken to or read anything by anyone who has got it nailed yet, which adds so much uncertainty to all of this!
I’m interested what are you predicting then?
I believe that foreign films are closer to BAFTA’s heart because historically the nominations have always represented a much wider selection of foreign language films and performances than the Oscars. And I think that largely stems from us being located so closely to mainland European countries with great cinematic outputs.
I also think BAFTA are largely ‘straight down the line’ with their choices. They like their films to be artful or sophisticated or both. In this sense – Roma is artful and sophisticated and is by all appearances a perfect BAFTA Best Film. It wasn’t going to offend or alienate anybody, which is probably why it won.
And BAFTA sure like British films, but again – the more ‘straight down the line’ the better (The King’s Speech). The Favourite was always going to be popular with them but I rightly suspected it might have a bit too much ‘bite’ for some members, especially in the way of its screenplay and stylistic choices.
My personal pick is Green Book. I think you are right it was too American for BAFTA (3 Billboards was written by a British man and felt like a British version of America). I think it’ll scoop Original Screenplay and maybe even Editing if it can get past the competition. But I won’t be surprised to see Roma (or anything) win Best Picture.
Nobody was SURE The Favourite would win at BAFTA – that’s ridiculous!
There was very little dissention in the ranks. Many were positive it would win.
I didn’t see those comments. I wasn’t sure and nobody I talked to was sure either. And several thought Roma was more likely.
I can’t speak for AD because tbh I can’t remember. But on GoldDerby for instance it was 1438 (The Favourite) against 684 (Roma) so the former definitely had the edge. And this carried through to most of the usual pundits/podcasts, etc.
This is absolutely correct – at Gold Derby the pundits were definitely mostly predicting The Favourite. However, I don’t know about the users (I’m not on the forums there), but none of the pundits there sounded to me like they were even remotely confident it wouldn’t be something else (namely Roma).
“does anyone have a stat of British films that lost at Bafta but won at Oscar?”
Wow – surprisingly, this HAS happened once. Oliver! (1968) – lost to a movie nominated for BP in a different year (The Graduate).
So to me that is still once in many many years – it is enough that I decided against going with it in picture… I have it in number 2 though. Though I guess its not the worst stat a film has to overcome this year!
Oh, no, of course. It’s very little… Especially since, given what that lost to (The Graduate), you can say no British movie has ever won Best Picture but lost the BAFTA to a fellow Oscar nominee. (Whether before or after the Oscar win.)
Not that it means too much, but I have two friends in the Academy who both voted for Green Book for Best Pic. I do actually think it might prevail. Both picked Roma I’m Foreign Film.
I’ve had Green Book down for weeks to win BP but suddenly my brain is telling me to switch to Black Panther?!?!?!?!?
Confused.com
I suspect your brain is malfunctioning a bit there, if that’s what it’s telling you… 🙂
“First foreign language film ever to win. Like ever.”
¡Ya era hora! (And it’s about time!)
It’s a huge hurdle but this is the best chance ever, who knows when the next one will be?
Full disclosure- after I saw Roma I said no way is a black and white foreign Netflix film winning BP. So I should pick something else. But I can’t see thr something else that’s strong enough
Off topic, how you stay logged in on this site? Phone makes me log in fresh repeatedly.
“First Foreign Language Film ever to win” is a feature for Roma, not a bug. It appeals to voters who realize that it’s embarrassing that the Oscars never rewarded classics from Kurosawa, Bergman, Fellini, Wong….the list goes on and on.
Thought exercise. Take THIS current Academy membership that is clearly very close to crossing the foreign language threshhold, and transport them via time machine to 1985. Does Kurosawa’s Ran win Best Picture/Best Director over Out of Africa?
As awesome as Cuaron is, he’s not even a fraction of the filmmaker Kurosawa was.
It is easy to fall for “those days had the best films and songs and art …” narrative. Art is subjective. We cant compare Kurasowa to Cuaron for another 20 years. Then we can see whose movies aged better. We don’t have to reduce one director to praise another.
PS: My favorite Kurasowa film Rashomon is on par with Y Tu Mama Tambien. I personally think Children of Men is one of the greatest films of all time. But I would refuse to say Cauron is better than Kurasowa.
PPS: My all time favorite director is Ang Lee. <3
I’m not saying Cuaron is on Kurosawa’s level yet, though obviously Cuaron has had an incredible filmography thus far.
Roma seems to have him more on a Fellini arc all of a sudden.
Fair point, so let’s just stick on point. THIS Academy membership voting in 1985, does Ran win or not?
Looking at the nominees, I think Ran should have won best director and it should have been nominated for best picture. My fav film of that year was The Color Purple.
I’d say Prizzi’s Honor would win best picture as it would be the film with the smallest amount of baggage out of any of the films that were even close to a best picture nomination back then with Pollock taking director.
I feel like an Academy going for Roma and Cuarón is actually a very different Academy than one that would vote for Ran and Kurosawa. The modern Academy seems to more often lean for gentler films that are very quiet and elegant while their taste in directors seems to be based much more on “how much” the director did to make the film’s visual expression as showy as can be. And Ran isn’t really either of those (and that’s not a criticism, Ran is if not in my top 10 at least in my top 25 films of all time). Ran is an epic of genuine wisdom and narrative prowess, it’s large and not particularly gentle but it’s also really a very written film, its contemplative and carefully detailed screenplay is one of the main reasons why it achieves so much. The acting isn’t really that Oscar friendly, even if for example Mieko Harada gives one of the most memorable performances in the history of the artform. Kurosawa’s directing is beyond masterful but it’s at the same time not “look at me, I’m directing” but rather based on a deep knowledge of the story he’s telling, his characters and the way in which to express them as well as he can. And the truths it speaks about are of an eternal nature rather than a current one, thus I feel that voters wouldn’t see a “reason” to vote for the film, as giant films that contemplate very nature of humanity at its core are simply not attempted by filmmakers these days (not to say that they were common at any point, doing one that actually works is a giant feat) and thus people don’t seem to want them either when they rarely come along, instead asking for specificity and narratives to champion in their films of preference. Or when was the previous time that a best picture contender really tried to seek something Ran-level in its themes, or scale, or narrative complexity?
The worst Kurosawa movie I have seen is better then Roma. Hell I rather watch crap like Birdemic again.
“Can Richard E. Grant beat Mahershala Ali after the pummeling Green Book has taken from the dissenters on social media?”
As other people have said, could it be possible, could it be within the realm of possibility that Green Book’s seemingly slowing momentum has nothing to do with “social media” and everything to do with the notion that the film just doesn’t have the massive groundswell of support that we keep hearing it does. No directing nomination, only five nominations, loses WGA, Loses ACE, no SAG ensemble nomination. I’m just not seeing an Argo scenario playing out here.
“Jazz tells us that at the Producers Guild, when Green Book won, there wasn’t much applause.”
Kind of a tip off that the final PGA result was actually a lot closer than this “It won PGA, it’s beloved in the industry” spin we’ve seen here since. For all we know, the difference was just a few votes. They did have a tie in 2013 so it isn’t an implausible scenario.
By the by, you were right about La La Land losing, but at no point during that campaign were you teeing off on Moonlight as “woketarian” pretender. You correctly pointed out that Jenkins was working the campaign trail quite well. Honestly La La’s utterly absurd 14 nomination tally did more to launch the backlash against it than anything else (and that nomination tally was discussed a LOT here). So this sly little revisionism about that Oscar night and “liberalism” is kind of curious.
If it wins, the sun will still come up the next day. But this “poor widdle Gween Book” assault every other day on this site is really tiring, and frankly is beneath the usual quality here.
This is not about “poor widdle Green Book . It’s about a glorified home movie , a telenovela on steroids doing what has never been done before . So Roma should win Best Picture because filmmakers through the years like Ingmar Bergman , Federico Fellini ,Jean-lLuc Godard , Jean Renoir, Akira Kurosawa , Satyajit Ray , Francois Truffaut Sergei Eisenstein and others never had a film of theirs win . A friend of mine at the Academy has seen all five foreign films and would rank Roma fifth .
You’re friends with Adam Sandler?
If Roma is a telanovela on steroids, then what the heck is Green Book, because that film makes Crash look like Citizen Kane by comparison.
What is it with Roma supporters . They all seem to have drunk the Kool-Aid . This is not about Green Book No matter what was up against Roma I would feel the same way . I know one thing . This year has brought out the worst in people . Movies should unite people not divide them .
Hey sparky, you’re the one who lobbed the insult at Roma to start with. I snarked about your weird telenovela comment with the Green Book/Crash joke.
By the way, if you look further down, I too agree that Favourite might actually sneak off with this thing based on expected script win.
This would suggest you don’t know what telenovelas or steroids are.
I have seen 4 out of 5 foreign language films and think Roma is the best of the lot. To each his own I guess. You may not appreciate movies about underrepresented social class, but I do. I cared about Cleo more than I cared about anyone on screen (except may be Alex Honnold – I really wanted him to live).
If you think it is a glorified home movie, I would recommend reading about Mexico in those days. The social unrest (a tragedy shown brilliantly in the background), the rumination on class structure are fascinating.
The social unrest as you call it ,the Corpus Christi massacre should never have been in the background . Why did Cauron gloss over that event . Just asking.
I was not referring to just the massacre, the whole story arc of Fermin was about the social unrest that led to this massacre. If he glossed over it, I would not have learned about it (I am from south India, not Mexico). It was in the background because this story is focussing on how Cleo is impacted by everything that is happening around her. It is about her and her life. It is important to tell her story as it is important to tell the story of a white driver of a black musician. And what a beautiful narration it was… I loved Roma.
Why did Cuaron gloss over that event. Just asking.
I saw a WWII movie where all the battles happened offscreen.
Why did Curtiz gloss over those events? Just asking.
(Although, I admit, I did learn every important detail about the German occupation of Paris.)
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1fed745340714025737204440cd862d8d82b297b657510afef31d33d832fe6ee.gif
I hope they ranked Cold War 1st. I’ve seen them all and if we set Roma aside it’s the best one.
In comparison, The Big Short is similar to Green Book in the regard that it won PGA, suddenly became a major contender, then only won one award. I don’t think Green Book is going to win Best Picture, and if Grant manages to surprise in Supporting Actor, I wouldn’t be surprised if it walks away with nothing at all. (Which really could be the best thing for it, just like it was the best thing for La La Land’s legacy to have not won Best Picture.)
This is how it’s going down folks. “The Favourite” is winning this shit. Always bet on the film that’s nominated in all three categories of directing, writing, and editing. Of the three that meet that criteria, “The Favourite” has the most noms overall and performed well at BAFTA (best pic aside). Weisz gets swept along with Best Pic, and it also wins original screenplay, production design, and costume design. “Roma” gets director, foreign film, and cinematography. I’m still predicting Close, but Colman could take it if they go full on Favourite. You heard it here.
I hope this happens. Faith = restored.
Seriously, I hope this happens
I just have a feeling about The Favourite. That’s all I’m saying.
I’d love that to happen but not one expert is predicting it. We understand Sasha’s bias, but no one else is.
Well, I have a close second. I am sold on “Roma” because it is too strong for to choose anything else. TF winning BP would not shock me at all. It could be the truest preferential winner we have seen yet.
Oh, don’t get me wrong, I’m not ‘expecting’ it (BP win) to happen, though I suspect it has a better chance than people give it credit for.
But I wouldn’t be surprised if Colman and/or Weisz won, and if somehow both won… We’ll, who knows!
Something tells me it’s going to be a crazy night (or, after the craziness of the season, maybe it will be an anticlimax).
“I’m not ‘expecting’ it (BP win) to happen, though I suspect it has a better chance than people give it credit for.”
This.
“I’m not ‘expecting’ it (BP win) to happen, though I suspect it has a better chance than people give it credit for.”
This.
So only Queen will be performing? Interesting…
What?
What? Everyone is scared of queen even without Mercury.
‘Roma’ winning Best Picture would be different, and I for one would not object. My personal favorite is ‘BlacKkKlansman’, but I will now concede that there just isn’t enough love for it in the right circles. I guess that will just have to settle for Best Adapted Screenplay. Now, it is becoming accepted that ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’ will take the two Sound categories and probably Best Film Editing, and will now likely produce Rami Malek as this year’s Best Actor winner. But despite this film not being the most critically acclaimed of the lot (in fact, it’s among the lowest rated on the list), there is still the possibility of a tie or a split vote, which could cause the unthinkable to happen and allow ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’ to win Best Picture. This is not very likely, but stranger things have happened. Now, if ‘Black Panther’ were to shock the world and win Best Picture, THAT would be exploding all over social media within seconds! This year’s Oscar race is more competitive than usual, I think. There are so many usually-reliable indicators that are not matching up this time. Momentum keeps swinging in all different directions. My predictions probably won’t be as good as usual on Sunday, but that just makes the whole experience that much more fun.
Split votes and ties do not happen on the preferential ballot.
“but stranger things have happened.”
Than that? In Best Picture? Nope…
Two examples I’ve seen: ‘Shakespeare In Love’ beating ‘Saving Private Ryan’, and ‘Crash’ beating ‘Brokeback Mountain.’ All things being equal, some might consider ‘Annie Hall’ beating ‘Star Wars’ not just an upset, but a miscarriage of justice due to The Academy’s anti Sci-Fi bias back then. You also could employ that reasoning to ‘The Hurt Locker’ beating ‘Avatar’ for Best Picture. Personally, I would have chosen ‘La La Land’ over ‘Moonlight.’
Statistically, those were NOWHERE NEAR upsets… None of them.
Depends on who you talk to. This isn’t an exact science. It’s largely based on intuition and personal opinion.
Nope – stat’s don’t depend on who you talk to. 🙂 Interpretation does, true, but not to such an extent that those wouldn’t all still be, at worst, very, very close second-favorites, no matter the interpretation. (As long as it’s logical and unbiased.)
Logic only applies in the tech categories. The artistic aspect of it is interpretation, yes. I didn’t say stats depend on perception. That was in reference to what is chosen in the artistic categories.
“Logic only applies in the tech categories.”
That’s… illogical. 🙂 The stronger stats are actually in the main categories. As evidenced, if nothing else, by the fact that I almost always do much better in those. (And I predict pretty much exclusively via stats, officially.) The stats there are just based on more and stronger evidence – ESPECIALLY for Best Picture -, and hold significantly more often than the tech stats do, which aren’t as many, as strong or based on as many precursors.
“Logic only applies in the tech categories.”
That’s… illogical. 🙂 The stronger stats are actually in the main categories. As evidenced, if nothing else, by the fact that I almost always do much better in those. (And I predict pretty much exclusively via stats, officially.) The stats there are just based on more and stronger evidence – ESPECIALLY for Best Picture -, and hold significantly more often than the tech stats do, which aren’t as many, as strong or based on as many precursors.
The human element ALWAYS plays a roll in determining a winner. Also, there’s a reason why it’s The Academy of Motion Picture ARTS AND SCIENCES. Art is illogical. Science is not.
Yes, but the human element and its tendencies are represented in the precursor results, which translate into the stats. 🙂 Which are objective clues.
Breaking: Kendrick Lamar and SZA won’t be performing “All the Star”. The song will not be performed at all.
Maybe they can get secret host Whoopi Goldberg to perform it.
Through her pneumonia. Would be fantastic.
Biggest surprise would be a bohemian rhapsody sweep. But I keep changing from Roma to black panther to green book as an actual winner
Biggest surprise? The Favourite winning Best Picture – along with Original Script, Supp Actress, Production Design and Costume Design. 5 Ocars to Roma’s 3 (director, cinematography and foreign). I would be surprised, given Toronto Audience/Globes/Bafta/SAG no-shows/losses but not shocked
F*** it – I”m gonna all in on Black Panther.
NGNG
If Richard E. Grant wins Best Supporting Actor, he would only the fifth person to win an acting Oscar without a major televised precursor win since BAFTA moved its ceremony before the Oscars in 2001. The only other four were: Marcia Gay Harden (no prior nominations unless one counts the Spirits), Russell Crowe (for Gladiator), Denzel Washington, and Adrien Brody.
Yep it seems to me wishful thinking. If he wins after losing the BAFTA I will be staggered.
I want Grant to win, but it seems unlikely. Bear in mind that all those instances of no prior televised wins happened when the Oscars were held in March thus giving time for AMPAS members to reconsider their choices.
Grant winning would be truly deserved and Ali would not be too upset considering his past win.
FYI, three out of four of those wins (Marcia, Denzel and Adrien) were my favorite moments watching the Academy Awards EVER. So I think that’s fueling a little of my wishful thinking.
Anna Paquin winning was my favourite moment EVER. A huge shock but also I loved the film. And loved her reaction.
But Mahershala only won 2 precursors for Moonlight: the Critics Choice and the SAG. And I highly doubt Olivia Colman is going to win because she never even campaigned. So the whole idea that Colman will pull an upset seems to be a case of some people’s wishful thinking than anything else.
Not campaigning didn’t stop Mark Rylance from winning. If they like you or your performance enough, you’ll get it.
Oh I can see Colman winning after her win at BAFTA. That’s what happens sometimes. I thought Streep would win after winning BAFTA. Not just because of the win but what happened with Colin Firth and all that was perfect for her. The same for Cottilard, but it also helped that she was young and gorgeous. I still think Close will win but I think Colman’s chances has been boosted by her BAFTA win and the reactions to it.
Are the Critics Choice not a strong pre-cursor anymore? I thought they were still very accurate with the Oscars.
Two interesting surprises I’d like to see on Sunday (but not NGNG, because I think these could actually happen!):
— Minding the Gap beating Free Solo for Best Documentary
(I rewatched Minding the Gap and I really think it’s a masterpiece. I love Free Solo too but its main drawback to me is that its essentially a film about the making of itself.)
— If Beale Street Could Talk winning all three of the Oscars it’s nominated for
(The screenplay is the difficult one. You have to walk away from giving Spike Lee an Oscar to award a script inspired by James Baldwin. Black History Month!)
Such a hard choice between FreeSolo and Minding The Gap. The only reason I pick Free Solo is that it is a greater technical achievement. El Capitan is not an easy place to shoot a film.
All in for Roma? Gold Derby were sooner or ltr overdue to.drop the ball hopefully it this year cos the horse they.backing is far from.best picture of year cos it.Netflix and yet other film genre films long snubbed unjustly by academy get ditched in favour of untried untested ” film format” that been far less established in.academy’s mind then no
Of genre type films that unjustly missed out over and over again.
I like share some other films look forward to cos I really over predictable disappointments of seriously most divisive mediocre bunch of films.nominated
( Roma, vice, star is born) and worst judgement calls of whom misses nominations ( first man, Mary Poppins returns, Stan and Ollie”.)
And course under- nominated contenders that got less noms than they deserved. ( black panther, bohemian rhapsody , blackkklansman, the green.book)
So here are some films look forward too that I believe deserve be Oscar contenders next year.
They include :
1. The Keeper
2. Hotel Mumbai
3. The Peterloo
4. The Female Brain
5. A private War
6. The Aftermath
7. Avengers Endgame
A Private War? that was this year.
Oh well should got nominated this year ey? Shame on academy
The biggest surprise? Cold war winning Cinematography over Roma and deservedly so. Alfonso Cuaron is winning at least 2 other oscars. Both of them at the expense of ColdWar. Academy loves to spread the wealth around, so ColdWar stands a fairly good chance to win this category.
I am predicting “Cold War” to win Cinematography as well. I think “Roma” will lose one of its awards it looks likely to win and I think Cinematography looks the most. I think not voting for it in both FLF and BP risks it losing both so they will vote it for both categories to ensure it wins at least one of them. Cuaron is personally winning two so they can give Cinematography to another great film.
For real? Wow! I hope you’re right!
It might lose that but nick one of the sound categories. Cuaron is winning two if “Roma” is winning BP so it make sense that the give cinematography to “Cold War”.
“a perfect storm, you might say, for the Oscars to do what they’ve never done, what they would never do before.”
Since 2007, we’ve had the first film directed by a woman win Best Picture, and two films directed by African-Americans win Best Picture. Two things that were also thought to be something the Academy would never have done.
I’m very leery of the notion that just because something hasn’t happened before it SHOULDN’T happen now.
This is plus for “Roma”. Its win is going to make history. The Oscars love that kind of thing.
Black Panther will be the biggest surprise if it wins. it will be a pleasant surprise to me though