No one really seems to know if this year will indeed be as unpredictable as it seems right now. If you take a look at Marshall’s excellent Statsgasm piece, you will see how the stats say things should go, give or take. In Best Picture, for instance, the stats model can’t and doesn’t account for Roma being a Netflix movie or it being a foreign language film: these things are uniquely unprecedented elements that will factor into whether it’s going to win or not. However, it has come to pass that Roma is the consensus favorite to win. As Kris Tapley said on Twitter yesterday, if it does win, nothing is ever going to be the same. By that, he means a Best Picture win for a film distributed on a streaming platform completely changes the game. Not just the Oscar game, but every part of the film industry. It blows it wide open. We’re all waiting and wondering to see if that will indeed come to pass. More importantly, if it isn’t Roma — what will it be?
In general, for the past two decades I’ve been covering the Oscars on this site — with the sole exception of my first year, 2000, with Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, Traffic and Gladiator all going to head to head — the Oscar race has been a well-oiled machine. Films are made,and shown during festival season, wherein almost everything is decided way before they ever get to the public. That has been consistently true for years, with a few notable exceptions here or there. Publicists rule and pretty much are hired for their expertise at pushing their contenders through awards season. This is done with the help of the growing population of film critics and bloggers, all of whom helped to build the consensus, to shape it, and eventually to decide it. They always winnow down the choices, which were then handed to Oscar voters as a smaller pile to choose from. The voters, in turn, mostly watch only what they either want to watch or felt required to watch. That was then. This is now.
When the Academy pushed the date of the Oscars up by one month to late February, it pushed everything else up and eventually handed the power completely to the festival circuit, the critics, the bloggers, and publicists who all worked out the Oscar race without the public being involved. The public was invited, by the end, to watch the films that have been selected. That was a reversal from most of the earlier decades of the Oscars, where the Oscars broadcast came later, in March or even April, when the public reaction, what ticket-buyers saw and liked, played a role. Public reception was measured in box-office receipts, so it mattered how much money a movie made before Oscar night. It also mattered if a film made news, if it was seen to shape culture. Once the public was selected out, however, all that seemed to matter was what people inside the bubble liked and responded to. That has shifted over time to move away from the traditional Hollywood film — even the traditional Hollywood OSCAR film — towards more independent fare: more wide-ranging in many ways, but just as insular in other ways.
It’s theoretically possible that this year, 2019, twenty years after 1999/2000, is itself a signal of the system in the throes of radical change. After 2000, when Gladiator won, there didn’t seem to be that much of a dramatic change — until we think about the social and cultural impact of 9/11. And George W. Bush. And the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and how that led to 2008, when Obama came into power and what that did to America’s psyche. These seismic jolts to the core of America’s character indirectly impacted the Best Picture race because they impacted the people voting on the films. It was also the beginning of an era of extreme partisanship, a jagged fissure in our society, now as bad as it’s ever been.
At the same time, there was a shift taking place in Hollywood too. Where the Oscars went from big (the big studios) to more personal (the indies), to a hybrid of the two (smaller boutique divisions of studios like Fox Searchlight, Sony Classics, Universal’s Focus, Paramount Vantage). In the Oscar race, the studios were going big and they were going international. For their bread and butter (and for their stockholders), they were going to target burgeoning markets in China and South Korea and Europe where they could make twice as much money. The studios began focusing the bulk of their resources and their talent more on the movies that would blow up overseas. What did the Oscars do for them anymore? I have been here watching this shift over time, where the studios really stopped caring whether or not they won Oscars, because the Oscars only seemed to make money for their smaller-scale “Oscar movies.”
This year, all of that was disrupted because suddenly the Academy looked at its plummeting ratings and concluded, at least partly, that the Oscars had become too insular, so marginalized that they would need a whole new separate category to honor the films the public paid to see. Like the Oscars used to do as a matter of course. But the clumsy and unfortunate word to describe the category “popular” caused the critics, bloggers, industry, and fans to rise up in protest. Where once the Oscars were seen as a silly popularity contest by critics, now they have become the year’s culmination in esteem, the utmost certification of prestige and taste, right up there with Sight & Sound’s list. That’s because the critics now wield enormous influence over the first sifting and preening of the Oscar candidates. In fact, you might even call the Oscars the critics awards now. “Critics” itself has become a relative and fluid term, because basically anyone with a blog can be one now. Literally anyone and there are hundreds of them. Nay, thousands.
The biggest change that’s making the most waves and causing the most heart palpitations right now is that streaming is beginning to dominate the way movie consumers consume movies, specifically Netflix. Netflix has been putting out such exciting original content that it’s capturing the attention of people in a way that theatrical exhibition simply can’t anymore. Just look at what happened with Bird Box. Heck, look at the show about cleaning up clutter. These things enter the public’s consciousness and become water-cooler topics while network programs and feature films just don’t. The studios are all trying to get on board with streaming, but Netflix won out of the gate. They got there first. They continued to evolve and adapt and grow — and to their enormous credit, they don’t really seem to want to control, micromanage, or stifle creativity. I’m sure that is alluring for a good many people who want to create creative things, not just branded products highly dependent on pre-awareness and marketing.
The Academy, for its part, has changed swiftly to meet the protests of the public by inviting more women and people of color into its ranks, and consequently many more international voters. The theory this year goes than none of them are going to have any problem whatsoever voting for Roma or Netflix. Then there is a theory that many of the older voters are going to resist giving over that much power and prestige to Netflix.
From a predicting standpoint, this means so many ingredients have been thrown into our recipe that none of our familiar bellwethers hold steady, none of the usual anchors or markers feel reliable. Nothing makes any real sense anymore, and stats (forever in flux) seemed to completely dissolved (at least until the new normal can be quantified and stabilized). Of course, there are some areas where the “Old Ways” still might count: for Best Actor and Best Actress there seem to be two clear frontrunners, but some people think even that is up in the air. Why it’s all so unpredictable this year is that each of the major guilds has given their awards to a different movies. We’ve seen out and out industry mutiny in terms of giving their top wins to non-Oscar nominees, like Eighth Grade at the WGA, Emily Blunt at SAG, Leave No Trace at Scripter. Such glorious disarray is completely unheard of. If we can’t see the consensus, we can’t predict the consensus. So here we all are. Riding a speedboat without a rudder.
And this, our last Predictions Friday before next year.
Best Picture: Roma vs. Green Book vs. Black Panther (personal preference: not nominated First Man)
I will be predicting Green Book but only because it won the PGA on a preferential ballot.
Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (preference: not nominated Damien Chazelle, First Man)
Best Actor: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (preference: Christian Bale, Vice)
Best Actress: Glenn Close, The Wife (preference: Grande Dame Glenn Close)
Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali, Green Book (preference: Ali)
Supporting Actress: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (Alt. Marina de Tavira, Roma) (preference: King)
Original Screenplay: Green Book (alt. The Favourite) (preference: First Reformed)
Adapted Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman (alt. Can You Ever Forgive Me) (preference not nominated First Man)
Cinematography: Roma (alt. Cold War) (preference: Roma)
Editing: BlacKkKlansman (alt. Vice) (preference: not nominated First Man)
Foreign Language Film: Roma (alt. Cold War) (preference Roma)
Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody (alt. Black Panther) (preference: First Man)
Sound Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody (alt. First Man) (preference: First Man)
Production Design: Black Panther (alt. The Favourite) (preference: First Man)
Costumes: Black Panther (alt. The Favourite) (preference: Black Panther)
Original Score: Black Panther (alt. Beale Street) (preference: not nominated First Man, hang your heads in shame, Oscar members)
Song: Shallow
Visual Effects: First Man (preference: First Man)
Hair & Makeup: Vice
Doc Feature: RGB (alt. Free Solo) — but honestly Hale County and Minding the Gap could easily win. (preference: Hale County)
Doc Short: Period. End of Sentence (alt. Lifeboat) (preference: Lifeboat)
Animated Feature: Spider-Man into the Spider-Verse (preference Spider-Verse)
Animated Short: Bao (alt. Late Afternoon) (preference: Late Afternoon)
Live Action Short: Skin (alt. Marguerite) (Preference: Mother)
Stay tuned for Big Fat Predictions Chart coming in a little bit.
I can’t believe the amount of disrespect Film Twitter has for Glenn Close. SHE DESERVES THE OSCAR. PERIOD. Stop making Olivia deserve happen just because you hate The Wife! Of course, Olivia was great in The Favourite but her character is SO PASSIVE that it defeats the essence and breaks the technicality of the BEST LEAD ACTRESS. All she does is scream, cry and respond to her “favourites” that sometimes she’s being outshined by both. On the other hand, Glenn Close was every inch The Wife. Her performance during the silent scenes does more than the other nominees in their speaking scenes. Her performance as Joan Castleman is a culmination of all her experiences on film, tv and onstage that it’s EXTREMELY INSULTING and DISRESPECTFUL to say she doesn’t deserve her win/s.
Sasha’s none predictions for The Favourite COULD be right. Remember, the movie is not a SURE frontrunner in every category it’s nominated especially in the art department where it’s competing against Black Panther. Paul Schrader could go ala Ex Machina in the Original Screenplay and the acting wins aren’t surefires either. So don’t hate on her if she’s playing it safe.
Plus it could be considered to weird for some of the voters.
Sad news: The great Stanley Donen has passed away at age 94. His cinematic legacy is legend: ”On the Town,” ”Singin’ in the Rain,” ”Seven Brides for Seven Brothers,” ”Charade,” ”Two for the Road,” etc. And on this Oscar weekend, it’s worth noting that Donen was NEVER nominated for ANY of those classics. In 1998, the Academy gave him an Oscar for lifetime achievement, and he stole the show.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ozag5oXPYms
I must say on reflecting with Bohemian Rhapsody having seen it myself..i enormously impressed with its campaign and by production and fillmaker cast and crew to resist the smear against some i think we all agree clearly now thankfully minor very minor glitches in one small aspect of Freddie mercury’s life..It extraordinary the selfishness and arrogance and pigheadedness of social media fanatics, the pro- live streaming/ pro- digital net generation (thankfully most of you here are not solely or primarily bout that ), They prepared to smear a overall honorable justice- fulfilled portrayal of a pivotal music movement of the modern era in evolution of Rock / Pop music..film gets its priorities and 95% of it depictions of events and characters imparticularly challenges Freddie Mercury faced personally to deal with them, face up to them, take responsibility for them and still not lose faith in his majestic, grand natural talent for being one of the finest pioneers in the modern era…
I think as reflected through this statement and again tremendous full credit to the cast and especially the crew and rami- malek absolute bang on electrifying commanding performance, they ignored the white noise had faith in very principles i outlined that make this film so fatntastic to experience, and there faith in their material, much like Queen itself upon it debut on the national/ global stage has defied the critics disillusioned sloppy error of judgement in their ignorant assessment of otherwise brilliant band..and much like the band itself..the film has defied the critics already (honestly in my view it strongly deserved at very least a 88* fresh ” rt review verdict and A “a” cinemascore on metacritic ….but in the end thankfully the film has emerged as most successful of the guild winners to win Editing, Sound, Sound effects editing guilds, and acting- .
Despite production problems and excessive beat up on original director Bryan Singer (clearly some minorities in industry have it in for Bryan Singer despite some minor shortcomings on his resume ever since his debut on the ‘usual suspects’ he been trailblazer of the gen Y filmmakers without question and clearly some emerging critics and equal age filmmakers are just trying to bring him down to their struggling level nothing more than resentment by parroting baseless claims presenting it wrejcklessky in press as fact) Bohmeian Rhapsody has tied in both public support and appeal guilds clearly shjown to it to be at very least a deserved dark horse..
And i think frankly wiyth it leading in no, of guilds it has won this awards season has most points of board and deserves (unlike some other excessivly talked about contenders like “Roma”, “Star is Born” (star ius fading morellike), to be a real threat indeed is for best picture..
In an unprecedented year why not this marvellous film get in if not black panther why not? behind the scenes Bohemian Rhapsody has more momentium i believe than ‘Roma’ beyond the so- called ‘pundits’ fact is in year new precedents be set why not the film that didnt win a dga, only got nominated for a pga, but as acting and editing sag in it arsenal to win best picture? who would deny if Bohemian Rhapsody (i still think unlikely not as much some people may think here) a deserved best pic win if it gets it?
While i prefer ‘black panther ” to win to only won 2 technical awards and lost out in editing guild, has hurt its chances so preference aside these are films in my ranking who biggest threat to overrated ‘Roma’:
1. Bohemian Rhapsody
2. Green Book
3. Black PAnther
4. Blackkklansman
“excessive beat up on original director Bryan Singer (clearly some minorities in industry have it in for Bryan Singer despite some minor shortcomings on his resume ever since his debut on the ‘usual suspects’ he been trailblazer of the gen Y filmmakers without question and clearly some emerging critics and equal age filmmakers are just trying to bring him down to their struggling level nothing more than resentment by parroting baseless claims presenting it wrejcklessky in press as fact)”
Dude you can’t be serious about this. The claims about how Bryan Singer sexually harrassed children have been long-standing, widely known and corroborated by several independent individuals.
claims and of course it plain wrong but my point is fine line between fact and fiction…who are these individuals? judges? the prosecutor see thgis is problem with world trial by meida, trial by social media…seems to take precedence over true justice unlike say michael jackson frankly there nothing oif compelling irrefutable evidence..are judges saying it? are the prosecutor? have charges been laid? enlighten me by all means course i not in US but i saying in general far too much trial by media coulds truth of some cases sometimes.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/03/bryan-singers-accusers-speak-out/580462/
I recommend that you read this article. Here, several otherwise unrelated people speak out in detail about their experiences with Singer, putting up their names in full publicity. As far as I’m aware, the lawsuit is currently in progress. Read them, they’re quite shocking. Far from what I’d call “some people trying to bring him down”.
As the oscar weekend is finally here…i think from being unfairly reviled to against all odds being nominated for 8 oscars by people who make movies and actually know how movies work, vice is a success story of this season. People WILL forget about first man. But national registry will choose vice for preservation because of its depiction of bush cheney era in detail. There can be no better and accessible movie made about that era than vice.
I think a lot of people are making the same mistake with vice. The point of the narrator in the movie is to disconnect audience from Cheney. So, when you see them discussing various tortures and laughing about them….you are not meant to laugh with them…you are supposed to be angry at them for laughing. Same with cheney on the death bed. When he is saying good bye to his daughters…you are not supposed to cry for him…you are supposed to observe how this guy who has done all these horrible things to people is being a nice family man. You are supposed to question existence of people like these. Mckay knew that the moment audience connect with cheney, they will rationalize his existence and his thought process.
A main concern with a lot of detractors is that they think the movie is tonally a mess. But the tonal shift is essential for a story like this. Same tone through out will not make it work.
as articulate as your piece is..frankly the narration was a cop out to abuse a truly important vice presidents achievements to safeguard and respond and galvanize a coalition to bring to end abiltiy of islamic terrorists to pose as large scale of threat as they did and succeeded in bringing down twin towers on that fateful day of 9/11.
Vice has little to no chance of winning because i almost certain for all academy flaws they see narration for what it is an assualt and distortion of the main characters contribution to public life in high office as vice president of United states…and narration totally utterly wrecks the film for no,. of people…it payback by the growing resentful left against one of mpost effective and yes maybve at best slightly controversial vice president – all cos obama lost office..well he did it to himself i sorry to say…and left esp the far left always balme the other side never take responsibility their own mistakes..Obama did great things but policy wise he undermined his overall effort in office…yes he got 2 terms but scale of democrats defeat spoke volumes of recklessnes of the left…and they undermined obama’s achievements.many that were enthusiastically significant.. to US history of race relations, gay rights, etc..
But Adam Mckkay did no justice to reverse perceptions through this film that left have acceptance for history as it is not as it was not..the events depicted in film historically are precise but it the vain breutal unjust character assasination of narration voice over and some isolated disgraceful scenes that threw me off and will throw off history informed influential demographic in academy.
I thought Mahershala Ali was great in Green Book but think it is category fraud so would cast my vote for Richard E Grant in Can You Ever Forgive Me.
Yeah, I’d have put Ali in Lead on my ballot. Chalamet is my Supporting winner, but as he is not nommed for S.Actor for real, I’d def vote for Grant if I were an Academy member.
Chamelet and Grant both terrific and worthy winnners.
Ali is terrible category fraud.
Everyone is all over the place with their predictions this year so I am sure it will be quite an exciting race to the finish.
Hollywood publicists picked ”Crazy Rich Asians” for the top publicity campaign. It beat ”Black Panther,” ”Bohemian Rhapsody,” ”Quiet Place,” ”Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” and ”Halloween.” ”Asians” director Jon M. Chu was named movie showman of the year; Greg Berlanti, TV showman of the year.
https://variety.com/2019/film/news/crazy-rich-asians-late-show-publicity-campaign-awards-1203146638/
I think the misconception we have right now in the Best Supporting Actress race is that it’s a Weisz vs King battle. For starters, I believe that the “up in the air” slot no. 5 is not Marina de Tavira but Regina King. Think about this, both women went zero guild/ industry (BAFTA, SAG, AACTA) nominations going to the Oscar. Regina sure has the critics and the Golden Globe but these are just exposures not legit merit points but Marina HAS the movie’s (Roma has 10 noms!!!) strength and passion and was obviously the default acting nomination other than Yalitza. So that puts her to number 4. The fifth slot was maybe chosen between a few actresses who are still in contention like Claire Foy, Margot Robbie and Elizabeth Debicki or even Linda Cardinelli. With Regina winning a slew of critics prizes, the Golden Globe and her film having 2 next to major category noms, she toppled everyone out and alas! She joined the nominees at 5th place. Whether everyone agrees with me or not, this clarifies that Regina lacks industry love.
I think its Adams vs De Tavira. One can say “but they both didn’t win anything!” None of the nominees did. Had Rachel won the SAGs I wouldn’t be writing this but she didn’t. Her BAFTA win is obviously because of the fact that she’s British and she hasn’t won before. The Oscars is different. She’d be splitting votes with America’s sweetheart and Oscars favorite Emma Stone who gave an equal if not better performance in the movie.
It’s even quite funny to note that film twitter keep pushing the Weisz vs King when out of all the nominees in the category, these two women have the biggest and most solid obstacles. By support and passion, I could even see Emma Stone winning more than I see Regina. And I also believe that Amy Adams was the second choice at the SAG awards.
There hasn’t really been enough talk this season on Malek potentially doing the Emmy/Oscar lead double. On a quick skim over the Emmy Series Drama Leads, I don’t think any of them have won a lead Oscar, let alone a supporting Oscar.
Decent effort by someone born in the 80s. Sure, there is the overdue Close narrative and comparably rapid 2-time winner in Ali, but this particular Emmy/Oscar double is seemingly new terrain.
Of course, on the Actress side, Close is on the verge of this as well (2 for Damages), but she joins Sally Field and Glenda Jackson with the lead double.
Glenn Close for Best Actress or we riot.
No lifetime achievement Oscars. Colman is the best of an average lot. Gaga has no shot, and no Roma, either.
Colman deserves it
You can tell you don’t like The Favourite.
You think?
How good would it be for the terribly overlooked Beale St to win its 3 awards (it as has reasonable shot in all) and be one of the most awarded films this year?
I know it aint happening but it would be so good.
I think the misconception we have right now in the Best Supporting Actress race is that it’s a Weisz vs King battle. For starters, I believe that the “up in the air” slot no. 5 is not Marina de Tavira but Regina King. Think about this, both women went zero guild/ industry (BAFTA, SAG, AACTA) nominations going to the Oscar. Regina sure has the critics and the Golden Globe but these are just exposures not legit merit points but Marina HAS the movie’s (Roma has 10 noms!!!) strength and passion and was obviously the default acting nomination other than Yalitza. So that puts her to number 4. The fifth slot was maybe chosen between a few actresses who are still in contention like Claire Foy, Margot Robbie and Elizabeth Debicki or even Linda Cardinelli. With Regina winning a slew of critics prizes, the Golden Globe and her film having 2 next to major category noms, she toppled everyone out and alas! She joined the nominees at 5th place. Whether everyone agrees with me or not, this clarifies that Regina lacks industry love.
I think its Adams vs De Tavira. One can say “but they both didn’t win anything!” None of the nominees did. Had Rachel won the SAGs I wouldn’t be writing this but she didn’t. Her BAFTA win is obviously because of the fact that she’s British and she hasn’t won before. The Oscars is different. She’d be splitting votes with America’s sweetheart and Oscars favorite Emma Stone who gave an equal if not better performance in the movie.
It’s even quite funny to note that film twitter keep pushing the Weisz vs King when out of all the nominees in the category, these two women have the biggest and most solid obstacles. By support and passion, I could even see Emma Stone winning more than I see Regina. And I also believe that Amy Adams was the second choice at the SAG awards.
You may be right on Adams at SAGs but the BAFTA will influence some voters. And most of those “secret Oscar voter” bits I see are going for King. Sure, Adams will get some “it’s her time” votes, just not sure enough.
Although, as I said below, it would be oddly fitting for the Academy to give it to her for her least deserving performance….
Winning an acting award at the Oscar with only a BAFTA to support you but a costar to split with is unprecedented. Well see what happens.
That is what folks forget, Stone is just as great in the film and could split attention even if she won just two years ago. Still think King will get it but has been unusual.
The Supporting Actress race has been crazy this year and I LOVED it. I’m hoping for a big upset tomorrow.
Not even kidding, I also think it could be Adams vs. de Tavira.
Adams has been nommed everywhere and “could” have been 2nd place in every race so far (GG, BFCA, SAG, BAFTA). That means lots of votes for her with each voting body, just not “most” within the 5/6 nominees at the time. Her stock could have risen over the course of the season and during this last voting period (don’t forget, Vice got 8 noms).
As for de Tavira, AMPAS went big for Roma, including 2 acting noms. Most members will likely be voting for Close or Colman and not Aparicio, so many members might want to throw votes to de Tavira instead because they love the film and her performance.
This category is a hot mess and I feel like any of the 5 could rise to the top. King missed in key spots and Beale Street wasn’t as loved by AMPAS as people hoped. Weisz “could” just be a BAFTA thing. Just saying that anything is possible.
Yeah, Regina King and Weisz are doing the actual winning, but Adams and de Tavira are both ahead – please!… One of those might upset but, if they do, the other one will not be in second place, let’s face it!
Seth Meyers just put out a pretty amusing spoof for ”White Savior: The Movie” …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_RTnuJvg6U
Still loved this one:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ospx7tXWYbI
2 months ago, I would have thought The Incredibles 2 would easily win Animated Feature. Now, I think it will be Spider-Man: ITS. Too bad the vote totals aren’t released because this would be a interesting one to see the numbers.
I expect a Spider-Man landslide.
Final official 2019 Oscar predictions in all categories
I’m getting a surprising number of upsets from the stats analysis. It’s interesting… I’ll probably get butchered this year. 🙂 Still, I’m glad I’m at least going out on some limbs this year (since I don’t often do that, given that I predict using stats). It’s more fun that way.
I’ve not yet decided what my contest entries will be.
The first prediction is the one based almost exclusively on stats – where close, I went with the stats I found to be more convincing. The one in brackets is my intuitive prediction, what I expect to see win (specified only when it’s not the same as my official prediction), sometimes in spite of the stats. Those are mostly boring, the stuff most pundits are predicting.
Best Picture – The Favourite (Roma)
Best Director – Cuaron
Best Actor – Malek
Best Actress – Colman (Close)
Best Supporting Actor – Ali
Best Supporting Actress – King
Best Original Screenplay – The Favourite
Best Adapted Screenplay – BlacKkKlansman
Best Film Editing – The Favourite (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Best Cinematography – Roma
Best Production Design – The Favourite
Best Costume Design – The Favourite
Best Sound Editing – Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Sound Mixing – Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Original Score – Black Panther
Best Original Song – Shallow
Best Makeup & Hairstyling – Vice
Best Visual Effects – First Man (Avengers: Infinity War)
Best Foreign Language Film – Roma
Best Documentary Feature – Free Solo
Best Animated Feature – Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Best Live Action Short – Mother
Best Documentary Short – End Game (Period. End of Sentence.)
Best Animated Short – Late Afternoon (Bao)
Just a few quick notes:
– as always, I care more about my stats predictions, though, if I can’t get those right, I’ll be happy to at least be right about the unofficial, intuitive ones, instead, in those categories;
– I used stats based on the Gold Derby Awards for the first time this year (their correlation is surprisingly high) – we’ll see how that goes;
– there is, indeed, it seems to me, more/stronger stats evidence (and more precedent) for a Regina King win than for a Rachel Weisz win (though it would help my confidence in this if I was SURE there was a screener issue at SAG… but I think King is slightly ahead even if that’s not the case) – it’s obviously close, and either can easily win;
– Olivia Colman is the stats favorite, for me (though not by much, evidently), but the Glenn Close narrative makes SO much sense and I see little reason why they wouldn’t vote for her (some, but little), so I expect I’ll get this wrong (as I, of course, mostly expect for all of the stuff where my stats prediction differs from my intuitive one);
– I have The Favourite for Film Editing mostly because Bohemian Rhapsody didn’t get nominated in that category by either the BFCA OR Gold Derby, and The Favourite’s ACE win was in a tougher category, editing-wise – but BoRhap does have the extra sound mixing nomination (and likely win), so it’s not clear at all -, and I don’t have Vice instead because it lost the Gold Derby Award (to The Favourite);
– in no way does the fact that I did NOT name a different unofficial prediction for several categories mean some (or even many) of those aren’t still incredibly unclear (the aforementioned supporting actress race is the best example, as is, of course, live action short, as is score, etc.;
– the only reason I’m not committing to First Man in visual effects for both predictions is I just don’t see them giving it anything… They might, and it would be great, but I mostly doubt it;
– I put in some extra work on stats for the shorts this year, and came up with a lot of new stuff – but, of course, apart from the 40′ rule for documentary shorts (which, by the way, I suspect might take a year off this time around, since there’s only one such nominee), none of the stats there are (or could be) very strong… They’re strong enough to be possible decent clues, so I have official, 99% stats-based predictions in those categories as well, but I could EASILY go 0/3;
– I have “Period. End of Sentence.” as my intuitive prediction because Tariq Khan said EVERYBODY he talked to voted for it, plus it’s the most predicted at Gold Derby;
– and I have Bao because it’s overwhelmingly being predicted at Gold Derby, plus I can’t find a single one of the others that jumps out at me as being more likely to win (I’ve seen all 15 shorts, possibly for the first time ever, pre-Oscars – binged them today), and it seems like something they’d go for – but Late Afternoon is the marginally strongest one on stats, even though I don’t much believe in its winning;
– I see Clayton Davis of Awards Circuit is also predicting The Favourite for Best Picture – so at least I’m not the only insane person doing that :)…
Additionally…
All “won’t win” calls for the 2019 Oscars:
These are, again, for the record, the things I’m claiming with great confidence definitely won’t win (I’ve added some at the last moment, but not gone back on anything, of course) – only the stuff somebody might consider actually predicting to upset:
Best Picture: A Star is Born, Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther
Best Director: Spike Lee
Best Actor: Bradley Cooper
Best Film Editing: Green Book
Best Foreign Language Film: Cold War
Best Live Action Short: Marguerite (this one’s a bit crazy, as it’s the most predicted by the pundits, but I want to do at least one riskier one besides picture, and I like this call)
In other words, any movie that was even remotely entertaining has no chance … Got it
Well, Green Book has chances… 🙂
And here’s GoldDerby talking the King vs Weisz fight:
https://www.goldderby.com/article/2019/regina-king-rachel-weisz-oscar-breakdown-supporting-actress/
Good summation, still see King as an edge (the majority of those “secret Oscar voters” are picking her) but has been tougher this year.
Streaming is here to stay. It will take over. And eventually, a Netflix or Amazon or Hulu movie WILL win Best Picture,
I’d rather the first time be a masterpiece and a work of art like ROMA. It’s a movie that will stand the test of time, and studied in film schools, and make people appreciate the beauty of films from other countries and cultures.
Agreed. A foreign language film will win BP in the future, as will a Netflix one. What better one than Roma to break this new ground?
An Academy that can award Moonlight & Shape of Water can do it.
Best Foreign Language Film: Cold War
Best Picture: Roma
I cant see this happening. As a voter, if I loved Roma, I would not risk it losing BOTH. CC and BAFTA have shown that it can clearly win both.
This has been a very disappointing season for Sasha, as her First Man and her alternate BlackKK have faltered, and it has been especially disappointing to see her reaction, her downplaying of The Favourite, her lack of focus on the history making female driven foreign film (Mexican film in the Trump era, are you kidding me?) and inordinate focus on the travails of Green Book with unnecessary sympathy piece after sympathy piece.
This is the best Oscars site around, but for me the coverage this year has had a dummy-spit tone to it which is most disappointing.
The final set of predictions replete with non nominated first man (does not belong in a set of predictions) is symptomatic of my point.
Some will say it’s endearing how passionate Sasha gets about the films she’s championing, but to me it seems unprofessional. There’s a difference between being an expert predictor and being a campaigner, and a difference between being disappointed and sulking all season.
Roma didn’t get a SAGE or editing nomination, Green Book didn’t get a SAGE or directing nomination. It makes the season a bit more exciting than usual, but doesn’t mean the end of the world as we know it.
The only dummy spit tone comes from you Andrew and for the entire season!. You say it’s the best Oscar site so it would be good if you respected it as such. I like and respect Sasha and her advocacy and that she owns her opinions. There’s a lot to be said for considered opinion
It is not unprofessional at all as I see it. I also adore FIRST MAN and count it in my Top 5. If I were writing this piece I’d too mention films I loved like THE RIDER, LEAN ON ME and COLD WAR. (NEVER LOOK AWAY is another but I’ll hold that for 2019 since it opened in USA theaters in late January). Count me among those who consider Sasha’s passionate embrace of her favorite films as endearing. What’s more there isn’t any campaigning here as she cordoned off her personal preferences in parenthesis. Reportage at this site has been consistent and accurate. Not to inject personal passion for the author’s favorites would personally be a disappointment.
“The final set of predictions replete with non nominated first man (does not belong in a set of predictions) is sympatomatic if my point.”
She clearly labels these First Man inclusions not as predictions but as personal preferences, which A LOT of other pundits do. Seriously, Andrew.
Are we forbidden from talking about our own personal prefences in these final two days?
I didn’t get the memo.
I might ignore the gag order and just say whatever I want.
Consequences be damned.
Come and get me, coppers!
ATTICA! ATTICA!
Final predictions surely is about the actual nominees
Also, Sasha, we know you weren’t a fan of The Favorite. But if anyone is the alternate to King, it’s the BAFTA winner and surely more of a chance than de Tavira. .
No, this is Sasha’s passive aggressive to “The Favourite”.
Here’s where I see the Supporting Actress race going, ranked by likelihood:
1. King pulls it off as the new Academy membership allows her to break the “SAG curse” and get it off the strength of her performance.
2. Weisz carries the BAFTA momentum with folks thinking 13 years between Oscars is long enough and give the Favourite another big one.
3. Weisz and King (with an assist from de Tavria) split the vote enough for Adams to get in off voters thinking “six times is enough” and unable to resist her and Close winning on the same night.
I go for the first option although acknowledge possibility of second and third a long shot. However, as a friend pointed out, it would be just like the Academy, after all their talk of diversity and inclusion, to pass over King and give to Adams for her least deserving role (then watch as in a year or two she turns out a far more worthy performance.)
Adams would have to pull something that has only been done four previous times since 2001 when both SAG Awards have existed and BAFTA moved before the Oscars—win an acting Oscar without a major televised precursor win. The last time that happened was when Adrien Brody won Best Actor in 2003 and that only happened because the ceremony took place and March giving voters time to see more of the nominees, all the other nominees were previous winners, and The Pianist was a very very acclaimed film.
Very true which is why I recognize it as a very long shot. But as some have pointed out, we don’t know if Weisz or Adams came in second in SAG and their vote split (and Oscar snub) may have pushed Blunt’s win. I do think King as while I don’t put much stock in those “secret voter” bits, most of them published are going for her. Still, it shows how wild the race has been this year and you just know a few are going for Adams more for a “career Oscar”. Normally, it wouldn’t be enough to win but with King and Weisz dividing up things, who knows.
I think this race is either King or Weisz’s to lose (rooting for the former), but you do make a good point. We really don’t know how close has been really. Heck, I would not be surprised if De Tavina won given the over performance of Roma in nominations and that we don’t know what place she made it in terms of voting.
Exactly. The unexpected factors were King snubbed for the SAG which then went to Blunt and de Tavina’s surprise nomination. As I said, I think the new Academy membership makes up the SAG snub for King yet it says a lot we can seriously discuss the possibility of either Adams or de Tavina upsetting (it has been way too long since this category gave us a huge Binoche/Tomei style shock).
If there is anything that helps King win, it’s the fact that the Academy has invited a diverse membership this possibly upending few/many stats.
Exactly, that can overcome the SAG snub. Had this been a year or two ago, I’d say SAG omission makes King dead in the water for Weisz or Adams but now she has a much better chance.
Yes, but this diverse membership didn’t care much about Beale Street.
Maybe but King getting more of a push herself. Again, a lot different than previous years.
Brody had the precursor nominations and he won the Cesar.
Some defense that voters didn’t go for Adams as much as they thought she’d be sweeping Globe and also SAG for “Sharp Objects” which didn’t happen (sounds like a few were “well, everyone else votes for Adams, I’ll go with Arquette” which turned that around.) I do still hold to King yet I always remember that moment in 1997 when everyone expected Laurel Bacall to win only to hear Juliette Binoche’s name called out. It just shows how weird this year has been.
You are so freaking right about First Man!!!!
It deserves to be mentioned now too, at the business end of the season – and not just for techs!
As I wrote down here, I think the past year choices almost always impacts the current one or the next ones.
Crash made the industry pick only well reviewed films later.
The “cold” No Country for Old Men lead to Slumdog.
The Hurt Locker, which nobody saw, lead to a populist choice later.
The populist Argo choice lead to 12 Years a Slave winning over Gravity.
The fact many in the industry felt they “needed” to vote for 12YAS even though many have not even seen it lead to Birdman, the beloved one, over Boyhood, the one they were supposed to vote.
OscarSoWhite lead to Moonlight. The female representation not previously addressed lead to Shape of Water and the dominance of the indies lead to this lineup full of populist films.
that a very good point my friend JP wish you see you moe often here mate from one me been hear for 10 yrs plust to yourself you almost been here as long as me ey? happy new year belatedly by the by how was your xmas end last year? good start to 2019 for you friend?
Curious do you agree with me that a number of best pictures ytou believed be best picture of year were unfairly snubbed at oscars this year? would you agree this list films should be talked about more hence shoulda got oscar noms?
– Stan and Ollie
– Mary Poppins Returns
– First Man
– On the basis of sex
– If Beale St could Talk?
– the Frontrunner
– A Private War
any others you felt shoulda got nominated for best picture? in fact everyone let for get the ‘AMFAS’ (American motion picture of FARCES and sciences in my book) which in this list others films not been nominated for best picture you feel would have deserved to be oscar contender? and if they be nominated would conversatiuon be undeservedly dominated about ROMA?
shouldnt we be talking about how awesome landmark it is Black Panther in the conversation? that the populist Bohemian Rhapsody undeservdely slammed by critics is a strong best picture contender? (it has more guild hits than any other film this year, having locked in sound and sound effects editing, acting, and possibly editing oscars backing up it claim for best picture), or fact that we be discussing in my view what should SHOULD be the showdown between:
Pop-film culture at a cultural phenomena scale (Black Panther)
Vs. Old style Hollywood Revival with a contemporary twist (Mary Poppins Returns)
Vs. The return of the musical -biopic hybrid once championed by the academy in the 50-60’s (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Vs. the brilliantly made potent cultural- msg- almost pitch perfect provocative/ civil drama reflecting one biggest cutlural issues of humanity (racism- finding common ground/ standing up to it finding out where you fit in this world (Blackkklansman and Green Book)
Vs. Historical biopic of scienctific precision as best as been done before with realism and authenticity of what a space mission to moon would feel like (First Man).
And yet…when oscar has opportunity through it final choices who compete for best picture, it frankly squibbed it..fuked it credbiility already in eyes of filmgoers that give purrpose and soul to film industry to keep having reason to churn out more films, fact is oscar manipulation of the conversation against i predict the majority wishes of the silent majority , the debate is about whether or not we should embrace netflix and oscar have backed themselves into a corner by making this year a defining battle for future soul of what defines a film foirmat to be best picture.
Netflix has every right to compete in what it target audience is…live streaming subscribers..if your not a subscriber forget it…so that why i label this year of all years i can remember in a long time as the AMFAS EMPHASIS ON “f” for FARCE
if oscars choices for best picture ignored (honestly no reason they couldnt have( if they were not captured by the rabid twitterati social media gossip bullshit) netflix we be having the debate about what i mentioned in this piece
Spike has been showing up for every awards show and hasn’t won ONE major award for BKKK. Although I keep reading the brutally honest voters at THR and they like BKKK. But I’m telling you BKKK is going to be shut out. Nothing. Nada. Spike is a NYer and he loathes Hollywood except when it comes awards time. BKKK didn’t win any NY awards. It aint happening for him Sunday, but he’ll drink the punch.
I’m predicting a surprise for BP: The Favourite or The Green Book. I just don’t think Hwd is accepting Netflix.
He won the BAFTA for Adapted Screenplay. That by itself is definitely not a huge haul, but it’s also inaccurate to say he hasn’t won ONE major award.
Now Spike understands how Daniel Radcliffe feels
The Right Stuff is favorite movie. My dad was the exec on aircraft carrier that used to pull these guys out of the drink. First Man bored me silly.
I loved ”The Right Stuff” and ”First Man” (& wish Deschanel had won his Oscar for the former).
GoldDerby’s pundits predict all 8 of the Best Picture nominees will win at least one Oscar on Sunday.
https://www.goldderby.com/article/2019/2019-oscars-predictions-by-experts-91st-academy-awards/
I can see that. Hell, Vice should at least get makeup if nothing else.
Totally possible. The one in the edge is Black Panther. It could win 3/4 or nothing.
I think Klansman is the BP nominee most in danger of going home empty-handed, honestly. It’s only the frontrunner in one category, and a shaky one at that. Between Score, Costumes, and Production Design, Panther has a good shot at 1-2.
I clearly don’t understand this “I need to show how incredible my favourite film is and how dumb you are for not to follow my opinion” regarding First Man.
I mean, why not include Ethan Hawke as a preference? Or Toni Collete? Or Eight Grade in Original?
I honestly can’t understand these rant sometimes
So much you don’t understand.
You don’t understand “personal preferences” and how we’ve all got some?
You don’t even understand the meaning of “rant.”
I do understand personal preferences. And also, I understand when this preference makes sense or not. In this case, it doesn’t
About “rant”: https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/eea47c19152584469b25dab7a1cbd40ed33f320a12d6166f6b74c4659fa49c73.png
Thank you for the copy and paste. As such, listing personal preferences in parentheses next to predictions clearly does not meet the standard of a “rant.”
Dear ASSHOLE,
I’m not saying specifically for this last article but for these last 3-4 months. She complained about critics, she complained about Twitter, she complained about people not liking First Man as much as she did, she complained about people criticizing the mediocrity of Green Book, she even complained again about Bernie Sanders.
So yeah, those were all rants! So stop showing this condescending speech and let me rant (that’s it, R A N T) about things I have been reading here.
I like Marshall and feel compelled to say that he does not appear in any way, shape, matter, or form to be the word you called him. She’s also damn right about anything she ever said about First Man.
What I like about Awards Daily is how I’m allowed to roll my eyes at tedious whining.
And then (to some extent) some readers get to shit their pants and scream at us that we’re “ASSHOLES!”
Everyone gets to express their feelings in a way that exemplifies their own unique personalties.
It’s quite a lovely ecosystem.
Sasha and AD staff are working our butts off these past stressful weeks to keep the site packed with content and keep things running smoothly, so that all you amazing bright and passionate people have a place to congregate.
So it’s nice to receive feedback, Igor. Thanks, pal.
Thanks for letting us speak freely- I mean that.
But it really seems any negative feedback or criticism gets dismissed with attached insults.
Do you ever think any of it is justified? Ever?
You never notice anyone insulting me or Marshall?
Never notice anyone mocking Sasha or attacking her nearly every day?
I do, but what I’m asking is the substance of the comments that Sasha and this sites coverage and analysis is too coloured by personal preferences and should perhaps be more objective?
Yeah, Awards Daily doesn’t quite work like that. And never has. And that’s something we’ve been upfront about.
Yeah I get that, but this year appears to have been worse. I listen to all your podcasts and Sasha sounds so defeated and hurt this year. The trick is not minding!
The favourite and in particular Weisz has been the most obvious example. Everyone has her 1st or 2nd but Sasha has had her 5th. I’m sure she doesn’t think she’s 5th, so why put her there?
I get she didn’t like the film but aren’t you guys supposed to be predicting?
I know it’s never going to be dispassionate, but it doesn’t have to be this skewed.
“The trick is not minding!” – Yeah, that’s a lot easier said than done.
Sasha is as human as anyone else, and there’s certainly more going on with her than just AD.
Try using the credo you just invoked.
Not suggesting AD is everything and as I have said countless times, its her site she can do as she pleases. So yes I guess I should not mind either. I guess its about separating cheerleading from predicting, and in my view, a thorough analysis of the race requires a degree of objectivity.
I’m very accustomed to my favourites getting snubbed or losing, I’ve long accepted the race is not about quality.
I just think there is inaccuracy in analysis if it is done from emotion. And you might say that is what is GOOD about this site!!
Thanks for responding.
“The favourite and in particular Weisz has been the most obvious example. Everyone has her 1st or 2nd”
I get that. I get that everybody is head over heels for a movie that left a bad taste in my mouth. I’m used to that. It’s not the first time.
If you guys want me to predict the same thing that everyone else everywhere else is predicting, start a gofundme.
There’s still time. Let’s do this!
If you get like $200, I’ll change all my predictions to match whatever Gold Derby expert you pick for me to parrot, okay? Heck, I’ll do it for $180.
That’s how much I “care” about getting my “predictions” “right.”
Sorry it’s just not fun for me to be predictable.
I’d rather go with my gut and be wrong af, rather than worry that I’m the lone outlier and lose sleep because omg nobody agrees with me.
If Weisz wins, fine by me. I love her, even though the movie was hard for me to watch in my current state of mind.
But I’m not gonna panic because Weisz literally won ONE award, and frantically ditch an actress whose performance means so much to me.
Is that what anyone wants this site to be? A place where you can be sure all the staff is gonna be running to check what Clayton or Kris say before we make a move?
Here’s how I feel, Andrew. If Beale Street Could Talk got robbed this year on nominations morning.
A handful of movies that I personally feel are utter shite came away with wheelbarrows full of nominations.
And a couple of movies I think are masterpieces came away nearly empty-handed.
So I like to think that I’m not the only person paying attention who feels this way.
I like to think maybe there are a X number of Oscar voters who feel as I do.
So why wouldn’t I cling to the hope that enough people feel the same way I do — and and hold onto a dream that other people might want to be sure a movie like Beale Street isn’t 100% shat upon on Oscar night.
Nobody should ever look at my predictions as an good indicator of what will happen. I don’t enjoy playing that game.
I enjoy cash money though.
So if you can scrape together 180 bucks I’ll change my prediction to Rachel Weisz and then maybe everyone will be happier.
I only have $150 is that OK?
I think in any predicting game its more important to be correct than have fun, but that’s just me. I dont think liking or disliking a movie has anything to do with it. I am predicting GB for BP and it is my most disliked out of the bunch.
sold! 🙂
whose predictions do you want me to copy?
Mine, but you have to wear a The Favourite t-shirt.
Or Rachel’s costume
Picture: Roma (preference Green Book)
Director: Cuaron (preference Spike Lee)
Actress: Close (preference: Close)
Actor: Malek (preference: Malek)
Sup. A: Grant (preference: Rockwel)
Sup. A: King (preference: Weisz)
Screenplay: whoever wins this that is also nominated for Picture, wins Picture
Cinematography: Cold War (preference Cold War)
Editing: BohRap (preference BohRap)
Animated: Spiderman (preference Spiderman)
VFX: Avengers (preference Ready Player One)
Don’t care about the rest. See you Sunday!
I am so tempted to go with The Favourite or Black Panther for Best Picture. I was, and still might be, predicting Roma for the longest time, but the more I read from voters, I think I’ve been seriously underestimating the Netflix backlash. I know The Favourite seems like a bonkers pick, but it does so well in these simulations, and more voters than I thought I’ve spoken so glowingly about the film, I think it will do very, very well with the preferential ballot. And, of course, Black Panther has SAG, and will also do well with the preferential system. For me, it’s between those three films. Waiting till the last moment to finalize my prediction.
“When the Academy pushed the date of the Oscars back by one month, it pushed everything else back and eventually handed the power to the festival
circuit, the critics, the bloggers and publicists who all worked out the Oscar race without the public being involved”.
…And just like that you summed up the biggest problem with way academy works.
Despite what the ” pundits ” say…fact is Netflix is oy as you say ” beginning to dominate ” however nobody has out a compelling argument at all this Oscar race from what I seen why a Netflix movie like “Roma” would not be better off competing in the emmys.
It would be a huge mistake to underestimate the conservative voters base the most powerful arm of the academy.
If they had half a brain they would park and their vote and take a stand to a film that starts and finishes it screen time in it entirety on the big screen.
Let ” Roma” and more likely the case dominate emmya. There is a category called ” telemovie” you know?!
it frankly absolutely preposterous the academy has this sensrof blind obligation when if anything a founding principle from any institutions beginning of it’s existence must not be so readily discarded.
To embrace live streaming as motion picture…it doesn’t matter which filmmakers actors join Netflix.
So far the factions are split amongst actors and filmmakers and make no mistake when Spielberg of all filmmakers makes accurate call it effectively a ” TV movie” he right on the money. And mark my words…there be plenty of people in film industry who know and trust in Spielberg’s judgement a filmmaker who embraced the very finest of the traditions past in his films and in addition has reinvented old classics and put landmark bold visions of future BIG screen filmmaking on silver screen.
The great Ziegfeld , al Jolson, let alone the influential Broadway movement these were the foundation stones to which academy built an institution a mass following.
This year the battle and war for heart and soul for what academy should evolve to unfortunately begins.
With unquestionably some of finest films ( far more accomplished contenders that got snubbed than half list nominated for Oscar this year), in:
Stand and Ollie
A private war
Mary Poppins returns
The frontrunner
And of course First man
And on the basis of sex
Never made the cut. Netflix has simply not been around long enough to prove it worth to the public …most which still go to cinepexes …and while gradually increasingly more look at live stream as well or Instead of silver screen …for simple reason that up till 90th Oscars this year entirety of Oscars history has been about embracing silver screen.
There are heightened risks in future years if ” Roma ” wins that split will ensure in rank and file between pro- Spielberg forces ( let’s face it Hollywood foundations still respect know his impact contribution to shaping modern Hollywood and trust in it far more than they ever could in Netflix …( Netflix contributions. To motion pictures is constrained by fact it only existed t few years vs. 89 yrs prior of big screen cinema screen experience . and that they telemovies I don’t care how “artistic ” look of ” Roma” is was it intended primarily for big screen ?NO.
It tailored for those few willing to pay their invaluable dough to monthly subcriptions which far at odds format with longer standing tradition of big screen experience . and by academy embracing Netflix they are isolating the majority still believe in going to cinemas worldwide. Whatever declines in cinema attendance it oy marginal in some states in the USA at worst but bare in mind younger generations of traditional families who parents took them to what their parents liked families grow and so I very much doubt Netflix public appeal is credible threat to silver screen film experience .
I sorry to say Oscars fatal mistake was to short cut date for voting deadline by within few days time rather than march…and disturbingly no. Of these film festivals influenced by bloggers and all those others who lurk in cyberspace …
This if Roma wins is all about academy’s crisis of faith in their own formula they load faith in what worked…if it ain’t broke don’t fix it and foolishly invited online community of elitist self- righteous online commentators ( excluding sensibilities on this site is exception of course everyone on it ) with their ego their confused political agenda to have more say than the academy members themselves…
The academy self inflicted problems would end if they simply restored date to march and reinvestted faith in silver screen …
Ridiculous. It is 2019 and if you ignore Netflix you are living in the past. Everyone has to deal with this reality.
“As Kris Tapley said on Twitter yesterday, if it does win, nothing is ever going to be the same.”
I kinda think that if Roma loses to Green Book or Black Panther, things are not going to be the same either. I think there will be pretty strong backlash which would boost smaller and artsier fare in the years to come. A sort of baroque answer to popular films’ reformation.
It’s almost always like that, aroncido. The industry almost always addresses some aspects about its past year choices in the following year.
Crash lead to a new era of very well reviewed films winning BP (all of them above 85 Metascore and 90 Rotten Tomatoes).
The Hurt Locker’s win, a film nobody saw, lead to a populist choice in the following year.
Argo’s major studio and more populist approach lead to 12 Years a Slave over Gravity.
The fact the industry felt they needed to vote for 12YAS (remember the numerous reports at that time) lead to them picking Birdman, the film they truly liked, over Boyhood, the one they were “supposed” to vote for.
OscarSoWhite lead to Moonlight and the lack of female representation and the director/picture division in the years before lead to Shape of Water.
Seems like a good place to post a will win (should win). (- where I have no preference)
Best Picture: Roma (Roma)
Best Director: Alfonso Cuarón (Alfonso Cuarón)
Best Actress: Glenn Close (Olivia Colman)
Best Actor: Rami Malek (Christian Bale)
Best Supporting Actress: Rachel Weisz (Rachel Weisz)
Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali (Richard E. Grant)
Original Screenplay: The Favourite (The Favourite)
Adapted Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Cinematography: Roma (Roma)
Editing: The Favourite (The Favourite or BlacKkKlansman)
Foreign Language Film: Roma (Roma)
Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody (Roma)
Sound Editing: A Quiet Place (-)
Production Design: Black Panther (Roma)
Costume Design: The Favourite (The Favourite)
Original Score: Black Panther (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Original Song: Shallow (Shallow)
Visual Effects: Avengers: Infinity War (-)
Hair & Makeup: Vice (-)
Documentary Feature: Free Solo (-)
Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse (Spider-man: Into the Spider-verse)
I think Shoplifters or Cold War should win Foreign Language Film and I’m still mad they didn’t nominate Burning.
Shoplifters was fantastic, and would be a very worthy winner in any other year. Wasn’t a fan of Cold War personally, and Burning still has me confused, mostly.
Shoplifters would be a very worthy winner this year.
Agreed! All three are superior to Roma (which is still very good).
I understand that Sasha didn’t feel the vibe of The Favourite. No comedy is ever able to work for all viewers. However, I notice her predictions have 0 wins for the film. I don’t think this is an accurate analysis of how the rest of Hollywood feels.
Weisz is still getting a push (I mean, the BAFTA winner should be considered second to King) and it still seems a good shot at Original Screenplay.
Don’t worry about it. Just chalk it up to not one of Sasha’s favourites. This is what she does when she doesn’t like a film or a filmmaker. Also, she can exaggerate the chances of certain films even if she personally doesn’t like them.
It’s definitely not.
The fact that it’s Netflix actually does show up in the stats though insomuch as whatever weakness that poses would presumably show up in the precursors as well would it not? Do we have any reason to believe that the Academy is significantly more anti-Netflix than BAFTA or the DGA or any of the other precursors who make up the stat?
No stats so far. And it actually over achieved in terms of nominations. I think the reason Netflix is doing well is because it creates a lot of work for many filmmakers and it has been embraced by some great filmmakers and Oscar winners like Cuaron, Scorsese and the Coens. Netflix has won, even if “Roma” loses BP.
Hey AD friends! As some of you may have seen already, I recently started my own Oscars site, THIN GOLD LINE. It would mean a lot to me if some of you wanted to check it out. Here’s my personal predictions post:
https://thin-gold-line.com/tgl/final-2018-oscar-predictions
I published that last weekend, and a few rankings have shifted around slightly since then (I think THE FAVOURITE is #2 for BP now after GREEN BOOK’s loss at WGA), but my predicted winners should all still be the same.
There’s lots of other fun things to check out too, like my in-depth 2018 Best Picture Simulation and some interesting opinion pieces by me and fellow AD commenter @mylesdaigneault about how to “fix” the Oscars ceremony, the Popular Film category, etc.
If you wanted to support the site by following THIN GOLD LINE on Twitter (@AwardsTGL) or subscribing to it on your RSS Feed or leaving a comment on a post, I wouldn’t be mad. Thanks guys! 🙂
Good job.
Congrats, MrScreenAddict – exciting news.
I’m still feeling Green Book, honestly. I know I’ll probably be wrong but since it’s a game I’ll trust my instinct.