Best Picture
Green Book
Best Director
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Olivia Coleman, The Favourite
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Best Adapted Screenplay
BlacKkKlansman, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, and Spike Lee
Best Original Screenplay
Green Book, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, and Peter Farrelly
Best Foreign Language Film
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
Best Documentary Feature Film
Free Solo
Best Animated Feature Film
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Best Cinematography
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
Best Film Editing
Bohemian Rhapsody, John Ottman
Best Production Design
Black Panther, Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor, Peter Devlin
Best Costume Design
Black Panther, Ruth Carter
Best Original Score
Black Panther, Ludwig Goransson
Best Sound Editing
Bohemian Rhapsody, John Warhurst and Nina Hartstone
Best Sound Mixing
Bohemian Rhapsody, Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin and John Casali
Best Visual Effects
First Man, Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles and J.D. Schwalm
Best Original Song
Shallow’ from A Star Is Born by Lady Gaga, et al
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Vice
Live Action Short Subject
Skin
Documentary Short Subject
Period. End of Sentence.
Animated Short Subject
Bao
I’m concerned that we might not reach 3000 comments.
Does anyone need for me to say something problematic?
That wouldn´t work, Ryan – everyone is in a state of calmness and utterly lighthearted because the stress vanished from them right after the Oscar show… it´s not possible to stir them up when they are in a state like this!
So civil rights icon John Lewis delivered the Green Book package and are we still going to have people attacking its racial views?
yes I’ll be one of them
It is ironic how so many were talking of the Supporting Actress race so much and if King or Weisz or a possible Adams or De Tavina upset….and then it’s the supposedly sure-fire “locked” Best Actress category that has the upset.
Technically, because of the Colman BAFTA win, Close was less locked than, say, Julianne Moore – but then JM had less competition in her year.
Julianne Moore beat Cotillard and Pike in two outstanding performances, it wasn’t exactly a weak year.
When I say ‘less competition’, I don’t necessarily mean I feel it was a ‘weak year’ in terms of quality. I meant more that with JM’s fellow nominees, even Cotillard and Pike, there was no ‘narrative’ or ‘urgency’ to break the “Julianne Moore was great again and it’s about time to award her” train. All three were sole reps for their film; Colman wasn’t.
As much as I like Julianne Moore, I thought Rosamund Pike was incredible in Gone Girl.
But, like a lot of films, her character was too unlikeable. And Moore was “overdue”.
Moore could have justifiably won for Far From Heaven, Boogie Nights or The Hours, but Oscar waited and managed to crap itself when it finally awarded her.
The White Savior movie sketch would have been a better choice
https://youtu.be/T_RTnuJvg6U
I’d never seen this! brilliant
Shout out to Carrie Fisher!
Yay Space Mom!
Colman was the only saving grace of this sh*t show of an awards season
I’d add Regina and Spike to that list, but it ends there. So glad it’s over.
Funny to think an hour ago folks were talking about how “predicatable” this show was….
I walked out of the room and I’m not going back. Bull. Shit.
My score is crying so hard.
Yep. I expected Green Book to win these three. I was hopeful more deserving contenders would take picture and original screenplay but the writing definitely has been on the wall.
Agree with every word.
screwing showing the Irishman in theaters. Netflix should fix the books to show it can completed to win People choice at Toronto
Well, it’s not the worst BP winner ever, but it really is not the best of this bunch – by far.
It will stand the test of time.
I rank it 80/91.
Green Book is a masterpiece…
It was a relief for it not to go to BP or BR, but on the whole, not a great Oscar season or Oscar night in my opinion. On to next year, thank god. This year just kinda made me sad. P.S. Good job, prietene, for getting Colman right. That was the biggest correct prediction that either of us had.
🙂 Thanks! Sad to hear you didn’t enjoy the ceremony… (The actual ceremony I didn’t enjoy much either – until Olivia won -, and I want them to have a host next year, badly.)
It’s actually proved shockingly easy, in the end, to make Green Book the stats favorite (well, perhaps not really shockingly, given how much weakness the other movies, too, not just Green Book, literally bent over backwards to show this Oscar season), while maintaining the system’s 100% “prediction” accuracy for all other 29 PGA era winners. I think these mostly minor changes improve my system quite a bit (which was to be expected, like I’ve already said on several occasions this year, given how many stats were butting heads all over the place in the race – no matter what was going to win, with the possible exception of The Favourite, there were always going to be a lot of valuable lessons to be drawn from it, with regard to the stats and tie-breaks and all that), while retaining and perhaps even enhancing its inner logic. So, without further ado, here is the breakdown of this year’s stats situation according to my system, and the minor updates which help it predict this year’s winner (and/or improve the logic behind its predictions for previous winners) – first, the elimination rules:
1. PGA snub (not an issue for any of the Best Picture nominees this year) – 100% over 30 years.
2. Two snub rule (eliminates every Best Picture nominee except for Vice and BlacKkKlansman) – 97% over, now, 71 years.
3. WGA loss plus a major guild/Oscar snub for picture, director, editing or acting (takes care of Vice and also affects all but the WGA-ineligible The Favourite) – 97% over 71 years.
4. Not being at least tied for 5th in nominations (eliminates BlacKkKlansman and also affects Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody) – 97% over, now, 91 years.
Observations:
– The numbers are all updated to include this year’s result.
– As can be seen, a number of movies fall under two or more of these elimination rules. This was a confusing element for me and my system this year, as there is nowhere near enough precedent for this kind of situation: I couldn’t really be sure whether a movie eliminated by a single rule was likely to be stronger in the race than a movie eliminated by multiple rules. Green Book’s win answers that question. There is clearly no difference. (As Green Book was eliminated via three rules, whereas Vice was only eliminated due to the WGA+1 rule, and BlacKkKlansman only due to the nominations ranking rule, if there was a difference, then one of those two would have won.)
– The only modification I’ve had to operate to the elimination rules portion of my system is, again, a highly logical one, in my opinion: whenever a movie is ineligible for the WGA, it cannot be the system’s pick over a movie with a better “weakness count” (explained below) that was eliminated exclusively on account of the WGA+1 rule. Because that would obviously be unfair and illogical. This first came into play last year, with The Shape of Water vs. Three Billboards. At the time, I tried to resolve this by attempting to predict the WGA. This is clearly a much more appropriate solution.
– Since all eight movies get eliminated in one way or another, none gets eliminated (since one has to win), and the weakness count alone decides the winner:
Green Book -3 (DGA loss/directing snub, SAG snub, WGA loss)
The Favourite -3.5 (PGA loss, DGA snub, SAG snub, -0.5 for the WGA ineligibility)
Black Panther -4 (PGA loss, DGA/directing snub, screenplay snub, ACE/editing snub)
BlacKkKlansman -4 (PGA loss, DGA loss, SAG loss, WGA loss)
Bohemian Rhapsody -4 (PGA loss, DGA/directing snub, SAG loss, WGA/screenplay snub)
Roma -4 (PGA loss, SAG snub, WGA loss, editing snub)
Vice -4 (PGA loss, DGA loss, SAG snub, WGA loss)
A Star is Born -5 (PGA loss, DGA loss/directing snub, SAG loss, WGA loss, editing snub)
Observations:
– The 3rd-7th movies above are, of course, listed alphabetically, since they’re tied for number of weaknesses.
– I’ve already explained many times why I only count, for instance, WGA and Oscar screenplay snubs as one weakness (same category is the very basic answer – there’s a longer one with examples and precedents, obviously).
– As I said when posting my final official prediction, I’ve settled on deducting 0.5 points for a WGA ineligibility, to eliminate the need to try and predict that award in order to get Best Picture right. Since not competing for the WGA means a movie has neither won, nor lost the WGA, but something in-between. (As the chances of winning an award are always, in a vacuum, different from both 0% and 100%, as long as there is democratic voting between at least two movies going on.)
– The other modification I operated here was to remove the deduction of one extra point for not being in the top 4 in the nominations ranking, which I like, since that’s basically the same as the elimination rule above. I don’t even remember why I thought I needed to do this in the first place. I can’t spot the race where I thought this was crucial for predicting the right winner… (I mean, I have an idea, but that race is now resolved by the elimination rule, so there’s no longer a need for this deduction.) And, had I removed this earlier, I would have actually predicted Green Book this year (officially – unofficially I probably would have still predicted Roma, thinking the nominations ranking stat might prove too difficult to overcome). With that in mind, the decision is beyond clear.
– Since there is now, after these modifications, no tie for this year, I don’t even need to make any changes to the tie-breaks. However, I do want to make an improvement, anyway, so these are my new tie-breaks:
1. Having more SAG acting wins.
2. Having fewer relevant snubs in the categories listed above.
3. Major guild win rankings. (WGA>PGA>DGA>SAG.)
This is my final modification to the system made this year, and its purpose is to eliminate the need to have different guild rankings for the pre-preferential and preferential eras. Ties broken by the first rule are: Moonlight vs. Arrival (one SAG acting win to zero), Million Dollar Baby vs. The Aviator vs. Sideways (two SAG acting wins to one and zero, respectively) and Shakespeare in Love vs. Saving Private Ryan (one SAG acting win to zero). Ties broken by the second rule (necessary either due to the number of acting wins by the movies tied being equal, or due to there being no SAG Awards that year) are: Crash vs. Brokeback Mountain (editing snub for the latter) and Unforgiven vs. The Crying Game (ACE snub for the latter).
What’s interesting is that, even had Roma won the WGA instead of Eighth Grade, it would still not have been the stats favorite of my system, after these updates, because it would have lost to Green Book on the first tie-break…
Finally, some extra thoughts on stats that held or broke, and so on:
– Again I got Best Picture wrong due to (among other things) not correctly predicting screenplay at the Oscars. Or the virtual, all-eligible WGA. About that: The Favourite now looks like it might have actually lost to Eighth Grade as well, since 4/5 BAFTA-only screenplay winners that didn’t win the Oscar and went up against the Oscar winner at the WGA didn’t win there, and the fifth one is Up in the Air, and everybody knows why that lost. However, Eighth Grade IS still the only WGA winner in ages to have no Oscar nomination for screenplay, and of course the movies those other four lost to all did, so one just can’t be sure…
– The PGA is currently crushing the DGA in the preferential era. It’s now 2-0 to the former when they’ve split (I’m including the tie year, since a PGA winner beating a DGA AND PGA winner is even stronger evidence of how much more relevant the PGA is), and of course the one year when both got it wrong. This doesn’t surprise me one bit, but there might be some out there that could use the reminder. 🙂
– The late October stat (which says the Best Picture winner is always among the top 3 predicted at that time) has prevailed yet again. Will this one ever break in our lifetimes?! 🙂
– The NBR-GG-DGA-WGA stat also held (the BP winner has won at least one of the top awards at these for the last 70 years, now).
– As did the stat about the BP winner having at least one BAFTA acting nomination. (With this year, I think it’s now the last 21 or 22 years in a row this has been true, or something like that – with the obvious and irrelevant exception of Million Dollar Baby, which wasn’t seen by voters.)
– A movie getting extra acting nominations it wasn’t expected to get is YET AGAIN proven to be a bit of a red herring, not the major “Eureka” moment some people assume it is every year.
– Since Roma lost, the stat about the Best Picture winner never finishing exactly second, or tied for second, in any of my preferential ballot simulations, has also been confirmed. Which is SO COOL!…
– Like I said yesterday, this result also basically vindicates my theory that there’s no significant difference in strength between the editing stat and the directing stat. I’m sure this has already been pointed out, but there are now THREE exceptions to the directing stat since the early 1980’s, and only one for the editing stat (and an extremely easy one to explain away, to boot). But I’m sure people will again be indignant next year when I dare to suggest editing might be as relevant as directing, stats-wise…
– The Phoenix Film Critics Society is getting more and more impressive… 8 of the last 10 Best Picture winners won there first, with this year. Do we need to stop following the Best Picture race in December, from now on? 🙂
There are clearly many other stats that held, and some that broke, as there are every year. These are just the most important ones I could think of today…
Props to Sasha and Kris Tapley
Should’ve listened to Sasha folks. It’s her site.
The Academy is her bitch!
Would that it were–The Social Network would have won, for one…
I heard “Queen Book”, lol!
Driving Mr. Daisy.
Nope bye.
Oh shoot
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
WOW!
Well, at least it wasn’t Bohemian or Black Panther
Supporting Actress was not as uncertain as people made it out to be. Regina King continued to be the front runner, even without the SAG/BAFTA nods. Amy Adams had no momentum. Marina de Tavira was not going to happen. Rachel Weisz had the British advantage at BAFTA. But she and Stone failed to pull it off at SAG. And Regina King is NOT Sylvester Stallone.
What’s with the majority of pundits ignoring PGA these days? That is a home grown guild that is more of an indicator when it comes to the industry consensus, and yet, they have always gone with BAFTA , and most of them got it wrong except Sasha and Hammon! BAFTA is becoming less relevant by the year, from 3 Billboards to Roma. I am glad the Academy is not going with BAFTA’s choice.
Because PGA results are less pleasant to pundits than BAFTA’s?
The only reason Sasha and Hamnon predicted Green book was because of the preferential voting and its massive number of members.
Absolutely right! but other pundits would rather ignore that and pretend the Academy will like what they liked.
They were stats issues which said GB was unlikely to win (BD and low nomination totals, etc). It even lost WGA which seemed to say goodnight to its chances. The pundits had GB as likely winner for a long time but its chances seemed less after Oscar nominations and won nothing except supporting actor. The crazy year ended with GB busting big stats. (“Roma” and TF would have done too but GB’s were bigger.)
LOL, that is so true. The majority of Golderby pundits got it all wrong again. Good for Sasha though, who didn’t buy into the pundits’ gut feelings!
No, it was the complete reverse. Sasha went with her guts despite the stats saying it was “Roma”. She also didn’t like TF, to say the least. The gut said it was GB. The pundits usually go with their guts and GB was their usual pick. I just think it had too many big stats and seemed to lose momentum.
The stats, the guts, they should have gone with the PGA, but they have been ignoring it and going with BAFTA over the past few years, and they have been wrong for 2 or 3 consecutive years.
For the record, Roma was not at any point my system’s stats favorite. 🙂 Not an intermediate one, not a final one, before the changes I’ve been making, not a final one after the changes. I’m pretty pleased with that.
I had it number one until WGA. I felt something weird was happening when it lost WGA. It was a no-brainer there for me (although others deserved more).
I love how Cuaron didn’t even hold the Oscar, and the usher was still carrying it for him as he walked out.
Go ROMA!!!!!
It’s like he doesn’t care any more. He has so many of them.
Bohemian Rhapsody has more Oscars then Citizen Kane.
I have a friend that has more
I thought the broadcast was sharp. Great camera work.
The big one…..
Sorry, I’m so mad at Spike Lee who I just boycotted all his future movies. The man gets on stage and goes into a historical slavery and race rant. NOT ONCE DID HE ACKNOWLEDGE THE COLLABORATORS AND COWRITERS of his movie. NOT ONCE DID HE THANK HIS WIFE AND FAMILY. He could have thanked his 1st grade teacher, his college teacher….NOPE HE WENT INTO HIS POLITICAL RANT.
I am done with Spike lee.
Spike thanked his wife Tonya and his kids Satchel and Jackson. Everyone knew Spike would make a political speech that his personality. Spike always been political in his interview and his movies. Why act outrage now?
He apparently had another speech planned for when he was going to go up a second time and that was all about thanking people. I don’t actually mind though, I’m sure he’ll thank people in person and it made for a more interesting speech (even though the speech was pretty badly presented).
The Live Shorts winners were having so much fun. The shorts nominees have so little funding.
Glenn Close has 3 Tony’s and 3 Emmys, 3 Golden Globes and 3 SAGs. She will be ok.
I cant get over her loss.TF lost all its categories except the one that was supposed be locked for Close!What a cruel world we live in.
I would be happy to have seven Oscar nominations on my resume. One more and she will equal Peter O’Toole.
Whoever thought it was a lock was delusional. Close lost BAFTA to Colman and tied for Critics Choice, Colman won the other Globe for Best Actress, too, as well as most critics prizes. It was extremely unclear. For me, Colman was the stats favorite, and I predicted her as a result of that.
I am sure she will be. She probably recognises Colman’s win the kind of win that rarely happens and she would support that kind of win. Colman isn’t typical Oscar but she just wowed everyone with bothy her performance and her personality.
Yes, at least it wasn’t Cher or Streep getting her third for a mediocre performance (or Gaga, who is also now an Oscar winner).
2 SAGs
I think the stage hands lost. So many nominees looked confused on the stage and red carpet. The winners are in an altered state. Good for Chris Evans helping Regina up the stairs.
Having Roma and the favourite in the line up and they award to green book. Sigh.
crap year
If ever I’ve wished for a La La Land/Moonlight moment….
And I won my pool!!!!! $$$$
Me too
PGA ftw. It took 24 categoriee for one of my bets to come through.
A world where Bohemian Rhapsody, Bohemian fucking Rhapsody, the worst, like absolute worst film to earn nominations in major categories, let alone a Best Picture nomination in 50 years or something, left with the most wins of the night is pretty fucking embarrassing. I’ve talked to A LOT OF PEOPLE about this and trust me when I say many think The Oscars have lost any credibility (I mean had they any in the first place but whatever…) with their choice to include Bohemian Rhapsody among the Best Picture nominees. Even now that awards season is officially over I think of the film and it feels like a bad joke. That comes from a former die-hard Queen fan, kind you.
Now, when it comes to Best Picture, unfortunately it’s what I had predicted from the get-go. I wanted to believe that Roma, the best film of the year by a mile as far as I’m concerned, could take it but nope, it’s The Oscars everybody, so of course they’ll go with the “safe”, predictable, by the numbers choice. Green Book is a fine film but Best Picture worthy it is not. In a just world, it would be either Roma or The Favourite, two astonishing, modern instant classics, scoring both the most nominations this year only to end up winning less Oscars than Bohemian fucking Rhapsody (even Green Book looks like Citizen Kane quality-wise next to BR so it obviously deserved more Oscars as well).
Every minor upset (save for Olivia’s win) was a meh choice at best and not even one came as a real surprise for someone who had followed this year’s awards season. Green Book winning Original Screenplay instead of The Favourite? To say that was embarrassing is some kind of understatement. Ugh.
I’m as sad as Sasha I’m guessing that one of the best films of last year, Damien Chazelle’s exceptional First Man scored only one win for its phenomenal Visual Effects. At least it didn’t have the fate of The Ballad Of Buster Scruggs, First Reformed, Hereditary and Widows, all astonishing films that either left the show empty-handed or didn’t even score a nomination. All of them deserved better, but hey, at least Bohemian Rhapsody won 4 Oscars people!!! (If you’re hearing something, never mind, that’s just me and every cinema / art lover slowly dying every time one thinks of it, lol)
Probably to no one’s surprise, Rami Malek won The Oscar for Best Actor for his turn as Mercury. How unfortunate that a very good rising actor like him (looks like a pretty likable guy as well and delivered a really good speech once again) won for what will go down as the least good performance to win Best Actor at The Oscars in decades. For every problem I had with the film, a perfectly watchable, but painfully mediocre, generic and conventional biopic (about one of the most fascinating, complex and unconventional music figures of all time btw), it at least featured as a highlight a committed, occasionally moving and all around really good turn by an undoubtedly charismatic actor like Malek. Still not good enough in my eyes to be worthy of being included among the Top 5 Lead Actor performances of this year, let alone being the frontrunner of his category and the eventual winner. It’s a shame he’ll most likely find zero trouble topping his performance on BR only to be snubbed when he shouldn’t.
I’d love to see Richard E. Grant shock everyone with a hugely deserving win for his magnificent work in Can You Ever Forgive Me? Mahershala was definitely deserving but a) he already has an Oscar b) Richard was better as far as I’m concerned.
Regina King’s win felt amazing and so, so deserved but one win for a film as powerful as If Beale Street Could Talk is way too little. Nicholas Britell deserved a win for his hauntingly beautiful score so badly.
And here it comes, the big (but not terribly unexpected) upset of the night. Olivia Colman’s PHENOMENAL performance in The Favourite (which deserved far more than one win imo) prevailed towards Glenn Close’s also PHENOMENAL but far less showy work in The Wife. This one felt both fantastic because Olivia deserved it 100% for her unforgettable work in a far better film but also disappointing because it was a little hard watching Glenn, one of the greatest and most underappreciated actresses ever when it comes to major awards recognition for her legendary work on film, be snubbed once even in a year where even minutes before the show the odds seemed at her favor. One can easily doubt she’ll ever again have the chance to win. The incredible Amy Adams is at least in good company lol.
Olivia’s reaction and speech was for me the best moment of the night. What a lovely, lovely woman she seems to be and what a talent. Still, can’t help but feel a little sad for Glenn… Such a gracious reaction btw, class personified.
“Olivia’s reaction and speech was for me the best moment of the night.
What a lovely, lovely woman she seems to be and what a talent.”
Same for me.
By the way, how did everybody else do on their Oscar bets? I bet some people KILLED, going with the Green Book scenario!… 🙂
I did well predicting BP wins. BR won editing but I went for “Vice”. Didn’t pick GB winning screenplay and BP, of course. But I did say that was more to upset than TF, judging by previous Oscar upsets. I was so, so close to going for Colman after her BAFTA. I just knew they were going to love her and give her the award after that.
“But I did say that was more to upset than TF, judging by previous Oscar upsets.”
Yeah, I remember that. 🙂 Your logic made sense to me at the time. Of course, my official prediction was stats-based, and I wasn’t going to change it based on that. But it made me believe less in The Favourite.
Thought nothing could top the WHIPLASH of Original vs. Adapted but Actor vs. Actress might have topped it.
Wow one of the biggest upsets in Best Actress category, I love underdogs winning, but feeling bad for Glenn Close.
Without a doubt. Marion Cotillard all over again, two brilliant winners.
Hardly Cotillard all over again
Julie Christie already had an Oscar though. She’s had an Oscar for most of her life actually, as she won one fairly young, in her twenties.
Rami’s speech was better than I expected.
Cause he’s never going back
Carol Channing was left out of the In Memoriam segment, too.
Made very few movies
But an Oscar nominee.
There’s a new trend in BP. For the second year in a row, AMPAS has awarded a movie in the Fantasy Genre.
Systemic racism is not in the least a fantasy. It’s not remotely on a par with copulating with a sea monster.
I assume he meant the “white savior” myth and not “systemic racism”.
Okay. If what you say is accurate, maybe there’s a discussion to be had there. I still don’t get the “white savior” complaint. What does Tony Lip “save” Dr. Shirley from? Does Don’s entire life become substantially easier just for knowing Tony? The movie makes no such claim. I don’t think Dr. Shirley thought he had life aced just because he’d befriended Tony Lip. And speaking more generally, exactly where and how do white people do all this “saving” that some suggest we’re all in danger of seeing too much of?
That cracked me up a little! I haven’t seen the film so I wouldn’t know. I’m just trying to dispell misunderstandings here though it’s not really my place to do that to begin with… But your quote sums up exactly what people are criticizing about this movie and others of the kind: Oscar-winning films about race relationships tend to be light, unrealistic depictions that make white people look better than they really are, instead of raw, uncompromising accounts of difficult truths.
I’m African-American, so when you say unrealistic depictions that make white people look better than they really are, I need to ask you, who’s making or is likely to make the movies you think would be more informative to all of us in depicting white racial attitudes accurately? I liked “Detroit”, for example, a movie with a vile white racist cop as its fulcrum, but when it came along I didn’t hear a groundswell of white critics saying overlty, There, there, you see, that’s how awful we really are. I’m not sure a movie can actually get them to do that, but, okay, I won’t rule it out. At the same time, a movie that shows whites how they might be a little bit better doesn’t seem to me to deserve the actual contempt that Green Book has been getting from some whites. And, I’m not speaking at all sarcastically when I urge you to see “Green Book”. I’d be curious to learn your reaction to it once you have. Thanks for your response.
Sorry. That one made me chuckle again, even though it’s really not funny, but I assume you were being a little sarcastic here.
And again, I was not expressing my own opinion in my previous comments, but trying to sum up the point of view of those who did find ‘Green Book’ “tone-deaf”/not “woke” enough, so as to clear the misunderstanding that arose in this thread. (OT: it reminds me of the days prior to the Irak war when I was spending my days trying to explain to my friends at school why Americans wanted to invade Irak, and my evenings trying to explain to my American pals on the internet why France was opposed to the war, while having no clue myself who was wrong or right!!!)
To be honest, my vision of race relationships in America was mostly informed by watching TV sitcoms such as ‘The Fresh Prince of Bel Air’ and ‘Sister Sister’ as a kid, so I am clearly not the best authority on the subject. I don’t particularly enjoy films about racism/slavery/colonialism because they are not particularly enjoyable and I would much prefer we all move on or better lived in a world where such things never happened, so I try to avoid them unless they’re a very well-known film like a Spielberg or something. I could try ‘Green Book’ though if you insist, but it has been my experience that I usually regret watching films that I didn’t really want to watch to begin with.
I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised. Take care.
At this point, it’s not coming in under 3 hours–I knew they’d somehow manage to take up the time. *sigh*
They might present the last 3 without further ads, but I’m skeptical. 3:10 is still impressive though. But it might be 3:20 if they choose to have 2 more commercials.
Blame the commerichals their seem to be more of them then ever.
.
I think the biggest take away from Glenn close situation is that there are two factors in play when it comes to best actress race.
Winner in a lead category has to be in a movie nominated for best picture. If not, then the other nominees should also be in movies not nominated for best picture or with movies that are not widely beloved. Lead performance from a widely beloved legitimate contender is always a threat. I think all the british voters and the foreign voters voted for olivia colman.
Overdue narrative only helps when your movie as a whole is in contention. I truly believe that leonardo dicaprio wouldnt have won even with all the internet uproar IF revenant was not a legitimate contender or if there was a freddie mercury type role in the contention from a more popular movie. Because an overdue narrative for glenn close suggests that the voters have to blindly vote for her even without seeing or liking the movie.
Moreover glenn close has not been actively contributing to great films as of late. May be its not her fault. But after albert nobbs all her films are just forgettable. Even her famous films are not widely loved masterpieces like godfather. I will put them in basic instinct bucket more so than citizen kane or kramer vs kramer bucket.
A lot of what you wrote makes sense.
I agree with this, I think Close has an undeniable talent and her performances in Fatal Attraction, Dangerous Liaisons and 101 Dalmatians are without a doubt iconic, but she hasn’t really handled her film career in the best way, Meryl Streep however has in my opinion less raw talent (Close is also a better singer) but has chosen a bigger variety of high-profile roles, has managed to do almost every accent and has gotten more love in the industry. Maybe it’s because Close also suceeded in theatre and TV (way more than Streep) and didn’t really invest more time on film, but it is true that since Albert Nobbs, The Wife has been her only relevant role and she will need the Sunset Boulevard musical film to be made and be successful to get the gold. Hopefully people will remember her after her loss and give her more roles, she proved with The Wife that she’s as talented as ever.
The Wife couldn’t do the trick but masterpieces like The Year of Living Dangerously, The Accused and The Iron Lady could. The first two were solo nominations. The other had just the make up.
Close lost when she was in BP nominees. And when she was the solo nomination.
Close lost to the all-time greatest Actress according to the industry. And to a basically non-Actress that played the all time great’s mother recently.
Close lost when the Supporting lean Lead and when the Lead lean Supporting.
The industry is cruel when it hates you.
If “the industry” hated her, she wouldn’t have gotten the SAG.
thats because of AFTRA….aftra felt bad for her and they bought into overdue narrative. Academy is a little more exclusive.
A couple of days ago, I said that I was still feeling Green Book, and that’s what happened. Roma was a weak frontrunner and it won where it could and was supposed to win. Green Book surprised everyone at PGA (with the crucial preferential ballot) and while losing at WGA meant that specialized voting bodies would snub it, a more populist voting body might not.
Yep, I was on Team Roma, but I overestimated it. The voters thought 3 Oscars was enough of an honor. I will never predict a foreign language film for BP again. Green Book was always the fairly obvious choice, especially after PGA.
Well done!
Hmmmm….the majority of BEST Actor awards go to biopic portrayals.
One funny bit: Due to delay, I’ll be getting my Entertainment Weekly with their Oscar predictions in the mail today. So I’ll be able to enjoy seeing them get Actress and Picture so wrong.
Moonlight: Picture, Screenplay, Supporting Actor (Ali)
Green Book: Picture, Screenplay, Supporting Actor (Ali)
uh oh! everyone casting Ali now ahah
I wouldn’t mind tbh he’s an incredibly talented actor who seems like a genuinely great person!
Moral of the story: hire Mahershala Ali, win Oscars.
But only three Oscars.
Ali the good luck charm.
Told – you – so.
Green Book is a masterpiece…don’t cry please…
I liked Green Book and I am happy for Farrelly and his team. It was my #4 out of the nominees for Best Picture. However, it is NO masterpiece by any means. You could say that of “There’s something about Mary” (one of the best comedies ever made) but not from Green Book, which is a great film, anyways.
:)) Yeah, you really nailed it – first saying any movie could win (such deductive powers!), then boldly narrowing it down to three, then again up to four… and claiming bragging rights at the end when one of them won! You showed us!…
If you look at the final awards, you see EVERY nominee won something. And something important if you leave Vice aside
Green Book took Picture, Actor, Original
BlacKkKlansman took Adapted
Black Panther took Score and 2 others
A Star is Born took Song – which lead the empty road in best actress for…
The Favourite – to upset Close and nail a big award
Bohemian Rhapsody took Editing and 3 others
Roma took 2 personal ones for Cuaron and also Foreign Film
so yeah, as I stated, all 7 films I mentioned arrived strong at Oscar night. Right? The winner could have been any of them, but Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay frontrunner status made English-speaking Green Book the frontrunner.
The Help and Moulin Rouge! won one and two Oscars, respectively. The former’s Oscar was an acting award.
🙂 Every movie winning one award in no way means any of them could have won BP. After all, the only winner since the 1940’s to win a single other award is Spotlight, and that had zero relevant Oscar snubs and BFCA+SAG+WGA wins (an exponentially better record than some of the movies this year, like BlacKkKlansman or Vice or A Star is Born or, in the end, The Favourite). Also, again, no movie since 1932 has won Best Picture while not being nominated for either screenplay or directing. Even though I bet you anything there were SEVERAL contenders people were saying, as you are now, COULD win, however unlikely they appeared, in spite of it, during those 85 years. (I’m thinking stuff like The Help – SAG Ensemble winner – and Moulin Rouge! – PGA winner -, and I count about 15 more between when Grand Hotel did it and 1970.) None of them did. Some of them, I’m sure (this I did not check), won plenty of Oscars, as consolation. And no movie since 1986 has won without winning either the PGA, the DGA or the WGA. Meaning only Green Book and Roma could win, if one assumes The Favourite would have lost the WGA – which the Oscar result means it may well have. Plus, of course, it seems one has to PHYSICALLY win the WGA to be counted for this stat, something I should have, perhaps, paid more attention to.
ahahahahahahahahahhaahahah what a fcking year. so glad its over!!!! Screenplay ends up picking up Picture again. WIsh Lee had won Directing and Close leading – actual LEADING – actress.
I’m glad 2018 is over. BE GONE!
Not surprised, really disappointing.
yes
Green Book.
Called it
Not really a shocker. At least it wasn’t Bohemian Rhapsody.
Bohemian Rhapsody ends with most wins. 4
Least deserving winner since Crash
Argo>Green Book>Crash
I love Green Book so much, such a masterpiece totally deserves to be the best movie of 2018….Not even the millions that Netflix spend in Roma were able to beat a jewel….it’s a wonderful day for movies!
Completely the other way around for me.
Possibly Green Book ahead of Crash, but more likely not.
The King’s Speech is as bad as Crash
Even worse than Crash.
Well… Whenever people complain about the lack of upsets I warn: be careful!
They weren’t gonna give Roma BP and Best Foreign Language film.
Not even remotely looking forward to Sasha’s pissy and football spiking column tomorrow for a film that she didn’t really like.
I thought she was defending it all season
Only defending against the backlash, she barely talked about the merit of the film
Oh you bloody fools.
I missed the montages. Something that makes the oscars feel like the oscars is celebrating movie history. Great movies from the past in wonderful montages. Of course they cut out this important ingredient to save time, and simultaneously, hurt the show.
They seemed to concentrate on picking presenters who might be relatable, in terms of pop culture or diversity, to today’s audiences. But what was missing is a sense of history. They could’ve invited a few Oscar-winning legends or toasted the anniversary of certain film classics.
I’m with you…
Show me the bunny: Here’s what I want to know – Who’s the costuming genius who designed Melissa McCarthy’s royal robe, covered with rabbits? Easily my ”Favourite” moment from the festivities!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jsi_Rd2OVFU
Brian Tyree should have gotten a supporting actor nom for Beale Street.
Agreed. Total one-scene-wonder, up there with Will Hurt in History of Violence. I’d have swapped him out for Sam Rockwell easy.
This moment was pure gold.
PLEASE send the shorts to a separate ceremony! In particular Live Action Short Subject which is distinguished in awarding the absolute worst film in the category each year.
Skin is far and away the worst nominated film in all the categories, a laughable, on-the-nose drama that would be offensive if it weren’t so poorly made. It’s trash.
Bao is a good winner for Animated Short too but people should check out Animal Behavior and Weekends. They are both brilliant little films.
Thanks to the winners for Period. End of Sentence — a fine doc, not the best, but certainly the only uplifting one — for bringing ‘menstruation equality’ to the Oscars.
Skin winning is horrible – it was the worst of the bunch by far.
Bao literally brought me out in a rash. I despised that ghastly saccarine short.
Detainment is much worse than Skin, I still can’t believe they chose that horrible thing to be a nominee. Animal Behaviour was my favorite overall and Period was the only one I thought actually had a point to make and saw it through from beginning to end.
They should definitely bring back a host but no stupid gimmicks. I miss the roasting and shading of celebrities and Hollywood in general. The meaner the better. Only opening monologue and introduction of presenters with some shade thrown at them. Just like how Ricky Gervais did it in the Golden Globes. No stupid gimmicks like pizza deliveries, celebs surprising moviegoers in the theater, bringing tourists inside the venue, etc. None of that sh|t.
The fact that it still ran over 3 hours without a host supports clearly that it works better without it.
“No stupid gimmicks like pizza deliveries, celebs surprising moviegoers in the theater, bringing tourists inside the venue, etc.”
I’m sure they would bring all of that stuff back, unfortunately. I liked the lack of a host. Kept things moving and we didn’t have to sit through all that stupid and pointless stuff you mentioned above.
Yeah, didn’t miss a host AT ALL.
Yep. No more hosts. The ratings were up btw.
This! 100%.
I find it interesting that despite the people who would have actively voted against Green Book in the Academy, it still won!
Great movie. Really deserved it.
I loved not having a host – that was always a huge time suck. But there is one thing that absolutely must be corrected – presenters should read the name of the FILM first and then the people nominated (except for acting categories). They say “And the Oscar goes to…” and then rattle off all the names of the makeup team and the name of the film gets drowned out with applause.
It needed a host.
Most deserved award of the night : Olivia Colman .
Was pretty fucking justice over there. I mean this is the Oscars. And its the first time since i remember that a non-dramatic role win. ( Emma Stone on La la Land was dramatic at last ) There was some amazing performances back in the day, but always a drama, cry , hard speeches, but never a crazy-loud-comic as fuck character as Queen Anne . At least that i remember. Was hard to not watch Rachel or Emma winning to Regina King average perfomance. But hey at leat Olivia got it . Roma is overhyped, Green Book in script over Favourite ?? I mean come on !! Rami Malek best perfomance of the year for sure.
Best thing of the night : No host .
Someone elsewhere posted an interesting stat …….
There have been 11 instances in Oscar history where, in a competitive race, 3 different films contained 3 actors nominated for those films. This year was one of them: The three films … Vice (Bale, Adams, Rockwell) … ASIB (Cooper, Gaga, Elliott) … The Favourite (Colman, Weisz, Stone).
In those 11 instances, SOMEONE won.
This year, that stat held up with Colman winning.
Brilliant!
So have the SAGs taken a hit in terms of importance? Sure, they got Malek and Ali right but the actress ones….
Close’s SAG seemed to be the utter lock for her coronation, if the actors backed her then of course she’d finally get the Oscar yet she didn’t.
Meanwhile, King wasn’t nominated for SAG or BAFTA, which normally would be a killer for her chances yet still won (while SAG winner wasn’t even nominated for Oscar).
Was this just a double fluke? That Colman and King won over voters and the new membership adied it? Or maybe a sign that a SAG nom is no longer the “make or break” it was for a nominee’s chances?
The SAGs became skewed with the inclusion of AFTRA members as voters. The voting membership became too diverged from the Academy membership
My thoughts too. Had this been a year or two ago, King would probably have lost to Weisz or Adams. Instead, good campaigning with the new members helped her pull it off (plus how it was the best performance of the five).
what do you mean by good campaigning? Bribing and putting lots of money to win votes?
I find King’s win more shocking than Colman’s in retrospect. Colman had a route. There is no way King should have won, so I think the larger body of voters has definitely diluted SAG’s importance.
It is notable as we’ve complained so much in the last few years of “Academy too close to the other guilds” yet now looking like they may break off a bit so we may end up seeing a few upsets in future years.
You can add the SAG ensemble stat being broken for a second year in a row.
BAFTA + GG = Oscar in the Lead Acting categories, most of the time. If someone wins BAFTA + GG + SAG like Rami Malek, then that person is pretty much a lock for the Oscar. However, when SAG splits from BAFTA + GG, the BAFTA + GG winner wins the Oscar. Example: Olivia Colman this year, Casey Affleck for Lead Actor in 2016 (Denzel won SAG), Meryl Streep in 2011 (Viola Davis won SAG), and Nicole Kidman in 2002 (Renee Zellweger won SAG).
They said, no way they’ll refuse to honor an American acting legend like Glenn Close in favor of Olivia Colman, who is not well known in the US. No way they’ll give the Oscar to Colman, who spent very little time campaigning in the US because she was filming “The Crown” in the UK. Well, they never gave an acting Oscar to Peter O’Toole, Richard Burton, Lauren Bacall, and Gloria Stuart either.
However, the BAFTA win for Colman was a foreshadowing of Oscar night, since there are many Brits who are in the Academy who also vote for the BAFTA winners.
The SAG, except Lead Actor, does not match up as often with the Oscar acting winners as it really should. The lack of nomination of Regina King (also at BAFTAs) was a serious oversight. The Critics Choice is getting less relevant as well. Neither Best Actor winner Christian Bale nor the tied Best Actress winners Close and Lady Gaga won.
Holy shit I just checked out gold derby and remembered I changed to Green Book last minute after reading something Sasha wrote and got 20/24 – 19th overall. I think that is my taking ever. I submitted my picks quite early here though so I think I was still on Roma. Still.
Still that’s nothing on Sasha who did amazingly!
Great job!
Do many people who watch oscars have memory problems ? how many youtube channels give a short demo of preferential ballot each year come oscar time ? what is this ? its not rocket science..its a simple logic…yet many people who follow oscars feel the need to be explained time and again..WTF
Can you ever stop whining about everything?. btw, your makeup needs a touchup.
Some more preliminary stuff before diving into the Best Picture stats (I did decide to work today, in the end, which is why writing these is taking so long):
First off, I’ve now gotten my last four official Best Picture predictions wrong. (And three of my last four unofficial ones. Which I don’t care about that much.) Which is… not making me very happy… However, I was mostly resigned to that happening again this year, once I was more or less forced by the WGA result to pick The Favourite, based on stats. (I wasn’t FORCED, I could have pre-adjusted the system a lot more than I did, but I wanted to give it a chance to surprise me, in more or less its current form.) Not because I didn’t think there were sound arguments for why it might win, but because I didn’t REALLY think it WOULD win… 🙂
And, if my system can’t learn what the right tie-breaking procedure is from THESE crazy races, where every stat comes into play and they’re all butting heads, then there probably just isn’t ANY tie-breaking system that can help the stats predict the winner close to 100% of the time. Even then (and I’ve definitely not yet given up on that project), they would remain indispensable for figuring out what movies definitely can’t win, as well as indicating how far ahead a big favorite is, just how vulnerable a slight favorite is in a close race, and all sorts of vital clues like that. Which, for some reason, a number of people are still ignoring, even to this day, after all my nagging :), and predicting stuff like Bohemian Rhapsody or Black Panther…
Also, mad respect towards Sasha for calling the upset right yet again! (AND for being so incredibly right about The Favourite almost being blanked. Though I still think having Weisz in fifth for a while, for example, was a gross exaggeration.) There’s a reason she’s the boss around here. (Well, there are many reasons…) Speaking of upsets, like I did the year of Spotlight, when people were calling that “dead” and such, after the ACE snub and PGA loss, this season I once more copy-pasted the comments by, this time, people calling Roma a lock, or things to that effect, into a little database. Now, like the Spotlight year (I’m pretty sure), I’ve decided against naming names, for obvious reasons, but I do want to paste here some of the things that were said, because they’re kind of funny to look at, in hindsight – as, I’m sure, it would be to look at some of the comments where I was saying how confident I was about The Favourite winning screenplay. 🙂 Gotta be able to laugh at oneself, like I’ve said before… At least I never called that a lock, nor ever considered it to be one. (Maybe I have a different definition of ‘lock’ than most people – I don’t know…)
I’m only doing this as a bit of a cautionary tale. People (myself included, perhaps, though, again, I’ve at least never called something a lock, nor implied that it was a lock, that wasn’t, as far as I can remember) really should be WAY more responsible in what they choose to deem a lock… Especially after La La Land, The Revenant, Boyhood at some point, and so on. WILL they ever learn?! It’s surreal, but the jury really is still out on this one. The quotes (I may or may not have straightened out the grammar on one or more of these, for extra anonymity reasons – but no correctly spelled words/sentences or their order were changed):
“Roma has had this thing locked up since December, no matter what the guilds and BAFTA do. Easiest call since Argo.” – January 22nd
“The acting nods for Roma show just how strong the support for the film is. It’s a shoo-in for best film and director.” – January 22nd
“ROMA will win Best Picture. The fact that it got not one but TWO acting nominations speaks volumes.” – January 22nd
“I’m sure Roma will win” – January 28th
“So, unless Spike Lee wins at DGA, it’s safe to say that Roma will close the deal.” – January 28th
“This race is ROMA, signed, sealed and delivered at the risk of sounding smug and obnoxious.” – January 28th
“I think Roma just became the official front runner, thank you very much. Green Book is a dark horse but without a Best Director nomination, it will not win.” – January 28th
“Cuaron wins DGA and Roma wins Best Picture and Director at the Oscars. I don’t see a good argument for any alternative.” – January 29th
“After BAFTA’s – Best picture: Roma ….%100” – February 11th
“I’m comfortable predicting her [I believe this was in reference to Regina King] as I am comfortable in predicting Roma as BP, which is pretty comfortable.” – February 11th
“No matter what happens I am picking “Roma”. I don’t think I was this confident of the BP in the last few years. It’s weird because “Roma” is in many ways weaker and not a natural BP winner. The cards have just fallen in its favour, in that all of the other contenders have pretty much been eliminated. That’s my last official prediction for BP.” – February 12th
“People are trying to make a horse race out of this when there isn’t one. “Roma” is the lock to win Best Director, it has the most nominations, and therefore should be considered the overwhelming frontrunner for Best Picture.” – February 15th
“Roma is so winning. Period.” – February 20th
Whew! So relieved you didn´t catch me with one of your quotes! 🙂
But I´m pretty certain I stated several times that it´s neck-and-neck between “Roma” and “Green Book”, so I wasn´t entirely wrong…
🙂 You were a lot more right than I was, by saying that…
No, I wasn’t wrong. It’s just that the stats favourite lost. GB wasn’t even in your top two what are you talking about? Sasha likes to go out on a limb and that gives you a chance to crow when everyone else is wrong. That stats were hugely against her on GB winning. remember she got BP wrong last year? and she went against the majority pundits like she did the two years before. I think that’s what she does every year. Anyway, kudos to her on the other categories. Although, I did predict BP’s three wins.
“No, I wasn’t wrong. It’s just that the stats favourite lost.”
Roma was never the stats favorite according to my system at any point, I repeat. So, yeah, that’s just your opinion. 🙂 I also never agreed that stats were HUGELY against Green Book. That was all you, with director>editing and all that stuff. It had big stats going against it, as did all the rest. Not really bigger.
Also, for the record, my system (pre-updates) had 1. The Favourite, then 2-4 Roma, Vice, and Green Book. So Green Book WAS as much in my top 2 as Roma, officially – it was tied for 2nd. My not thinking it was going to win was purely my own, unofficial prediction.
It was your opinion that it wasn’t. It was according to my stats. Either way, we were both wrong. And what good are stats. If we just plumbed for hat we think would win without stats, we would have gone for GB. The stats didn’t work this year at all. This is why we don’t have the same stats favourite. Anyway, it was all about the screenplay, as usual. Didn’t get that right so got BP wrong.
“And what good are stats. If we just plumbed for hat we think would win
without stats, we would have gone for GB. The stats didn’t work this
year at all.”
Strongly disagree with all of that. 🙂 See my longer reply!
Just to be clear, I’m talking about the post-Oscar updates.
Oh, and you WERE wrong to be so confident Roma was winning. This you can’t deny. And this is what this post was about.
Yeah, I clearly underestimated the Netflix and FLF issue. I cannot see any other reason it lost. It had the stats. Anyway, “Roma” was the only likely BP winner. But the problem was that we were never certain of the Original screenplay winner. If GB was strong in that then I might not have so confident that “”Roma” was winning. It was all about that damn screenplay, again.
“I cannot see any other reason it lost. It had the stats.”
My updated system’s explanation for that, put into words: weakness shown in more different key categories than Green Book in guild/Oscar wins/nominations. (Both showed weakness in acting – SAG snub – and screenplay – WGA loss -, but Green Book only showed further weakness in directing – DGA loss and Oscar snub -, whereas Roma showed further weakness in both picture – PGA loss – and editing – Oscar snub. 4 different weaknesses for Roma, only 3 for Green Book.)
Well, this was always my system’s method of picking a favorite, even before the updates, but the reason it didn’t get it right this year is that I was counting one further weakness for Green Book (the nominations count thing), which seems to be unnecessary (as in I no longer need it to predict any past races, I’ve already addressed those in other, better ways) and, based on this year, possibly also harmful. It’s also a bit redundant, as weakness in number of nominations is often DUE to having missed one of the nominations counted above (like directing this year, for Green Book). So I should only use it as an elimination rule. As that phase has nothing to do with the count that follows it. (More on that, of course, in my longer post-mortem analysis of the Best Picture stats, which I pasted to a lot of places, so I’m sure you’ve seen it by now. You may have even replied to one of those posts – I don’t remember exactly.) And I was counting one less weakness for The Favourite too, of course (WGA). Which I always knew felt wrong – this was the reason I expected to get my official prediction wrong (even if events at BAFTA, the WGA and in the various simulations gave me some unwarranted hope I might not), but I didn’t know how to fix it, since it actually seemed to be the screenplay front runner and there was no movie with a better score, regardless. (Had I not counted the nominations thing, Green Book would have been that, and would have even beaten The Favourite on tie-breaks, had I decided to deduct nothing for the WGA ineligibility for that one.)
Anyway, this is the method of looking at the stats that I’ve found best explains every single winner in the PGA era. (With the tie-breaks, again, outlined in my longer post.) And most of the wins before that, even though the fact that there were no SAG or PGA available to provide clues makes it miss some. So I’m focusing on the PGA era. It’s the details of this method I had to work on, which I kind of knew, and I’m hoping this year has provided one of the final pieces of the puzzle. 🙂 (Though I’m sure improvements can still be made, regardless.)
“It was all about that damn screenplay, again.”
I don’t disagree with that, honestly – even though my system ultimately says it was mostly about the PGA win. 🙂 I would also say the extra acting strength for Green Book helped a fair bit. Even if it had tied Roma on points (which would have happened had I decided to deduct a full point for the WGA ineligibility of The Favourite), that would have still made it the favorite according to (again, this updated version of) my system, because it would have had the best tie-breaks. (Number of SAG acting wins.)
Haha this makes me glad I predicted Green Book in Picture and Screenplay, if not much else! I was glad the BAFTA win = Oscar snub thing played out again.
Yeah, amazing how terrible BAFTA continues to be at this predicting the Oscars thing. (Probably precisely because they care the least about doing that – not like the HFPA or BFCA.)
Final ratings: Total viewers; 29.6 million. Demo rating: 7.7. Still 2nd least seen Oscars ever, but 4 years of declines reversed, and up 12% in viewers, 13% in said demo over last year.
they can thank to Black Panther and Bohemian Rhapsody being nominated for Best Picture. Also, A Star is Born, Lady Gaga performing…
I wonder who would have been the nominees for “Achivement in Popular Film”. We know that A Star is Born, Bohemian Rhapsody and Black Panther would have been three of them, the other two, maybe A Quiet Place and… Avengers Infinity War? Sounds possible.
Crazy Rich Asians. It managed PGA and SAG noms.
Also, you mean Queen performing. 🙂
Lack of politics clouding the whole thing no doubt helped.
“29.6 million. .. Still 2nd least seen Oscars ever.”
So… last night (with 29.6 million) was a bit more awful than 2008 (with 31.4 million)?
2008, when Oscar Night viewership plummeted 24% lower than 2007.
2008, that horrible Oscar broadcast where we had to watch the Coen brothers carry home 6 Oscars between the 2 of them.
2008, that dreary night when we had to sit through Tilda Swinton, Javier Bardem, Daniel Day-Lewis, Marion Cotillard and Diablo Cody drone on and on in their acceptance speeches.
God, how did we ever survive such a low-rated evening?
Fuck judging movies by their box-office haul.
Fuck judging the Oscars by their TV ratings.
“After four years of pretty stark declines in the sets of eyeballs watching the more than three-hour ceremony, the 3.1 million viewers that last night’s Oscars gained over last year’s show now slots the hostless show as the second least watched ever..“
You have a problem with that fact, please take your grievance to Dom Patten of Deadline, who said it first. Despite all odds, a 4-year ratings plunge was stopped last night. That’s progress. Despite hilariously awful wins by BoRhap and Driving Mr. Daisy. Black Panther was in the BP mix until nearly the end. Marvel Studios is an Oscar-winner, finally.
Progress.
I don’t have a problem with the bare facts, though it does make me wince to watch you prance around with bare facts as if you’re wearing Krsiten Bell’s underpants on your head.
I’m only reminding everyone that 29.5 million is barely a rounding error compared to the 31.5 million of 2008 — and that ratings-slump broadcast was an all-time historic joy to watch
—and lo and behold. here we are 11 fucking years later reading your cut-and-paste sermons from some jittery mook at Deadline trying to un-shit himself because, gosh golly, maybe the Oscars aren’t dying after all.
You know what, Ryan? When you take the low road and insult me, vulgarly, I might add, you only demonstrate to everyone else just how much of a dickhead you are. You think you’re slamming me, but it’s rapidly approaching ‘hearing this from you is like a badge of honor’. Don’t even reply to this, as you are now blocked.
Best and swiftest ceremony in a long time. No host needed. Showstopper opening + fun intro presenters got things off in fine fashion. No extraneous, superfluous “bits”. They are exhausting.
Happy for all the winners that I pulled for.
Ecstatic for Colman, gutted for Close. I hope she can get Sunset Blvd. under way and with a stellar director, great cast and top-notch craft team.
Happy for all the POC winners — well-deserved.
Green Book was not my favorite film of the year, but I preferred it to Roma – which I admire and respect for many a reason – but it didn’t move me much, even after two watches.
And people really, really loved Bohemian Rhapsody.
Is the reason Glenn Close keeps losing Oscar because she is living up to her surname and because it ends with lose?
But why didn´t Oprah Winfrey already win several times?
I think she did. Last time I checked, Harpo is one of the richest and one of most influential women in the world. I don’t think you can do more winning than her.
But Oscar-wise?
We’re talking Oscars, not net worth numbers here.
She is not an actress, although she did a couple of films where she was nominated.
maybe she should stop picking classic Oscar baits such as Alfred Noobs and The Wife and try something less baity and actually good?
I’m so torn! I loved The Favourite but really wanted Glenn Close to be an Oscar winner tonight! Incredible outcome. I so did not see it coming. Olivia Colman was just so lovable in her speech.
the Sleepless night was worth thanks to that speech!
You just know Amy Adams had to feel a tiny bit of satisfaction at not being the most nominated never winning actress alive.
Spike Lee made sure he won’t ever win another Oscar with his tacky theatrics after Green book won.
That was an absolutely perfect reaction and my only regret is that he didn’t storm the stage and wrest that undeserved Oscar out of Farelly’s hands.
My thoughts exactly!
How did he make sure of that? He could still win another Oscar one day.
He’s entitled to do this, after proven a fighter for civil rights during ALL his career. When Spike talks, wise people, listen and takes notes.
To rub salt into their wounds, he should throw their damn award back at them. That’s what I would do. It’ just wasn’t worth it.
He speaks out if he has a problem with another film – I respect his attitude.
I don’t understand most people’s need to trash someone if they support someone else. So evident in the Olivia Colman / Glenn Close case. Why can’t people calmly acknowledge that both are two incredible talents that had performances worthy of an Oscar win? Olivia totally deserved her win based on her tremendous performance alone – her personality and speech was awesome as well. Glenn Close is a living legend with a career full of performances deserving of an Oscar win – The Wife included for sure. It’s unfortunate that she’ll probably never win an Oscar. She’ll be fine but it just feels wrong. Both ladies display more grace than many people here insulting one another just because they wanted a different person to win. Jesus Christ, it’s not the Olympics. Any of them winning would be fine with me – Olivia’s win was just a little less sure therefore more exciting. Couple that with her fantastic reaction and terrific work in the film and it was simply awesome. It doesn’t change the fact that Glenn is not the kind of actress that deserves zero Oscar wins.
Glenn should have won period.
It’s the fanboy / fan girl / devoted acolyte mentality. For unlimited examples of it, read any comment thread below a story about Messi or Ronaldo. A mere mention of either footballer immediately releases a torrent of abuse about Messi from CR7 supporters; and likewise a torrent of abuse about CR7 from Messi supporters.
People who live vicariously can tend to take certain (seemingly external) things deeply personally, producing reactions that would seem to be riven with a degree of unecessary hostility.
Any diminshment of their God isn’t taken lightly.
THIS. Fully agree man.
Do not mention CR7 in the same sentence as the genius that is Messi.
Sadly, he’s kind of earned the right to be mentioned in the same sentence, by now. But I was very vocal about Messi being far greater a few years ago. I still think he’s greater than CR7, but it’s no longer as clear as it used to be.
No, I think there is still clear waters between them. But yes, three Champions Leagues in a row for Real Madrid has made him a much bigger legend. Before that he was just a goal scoring phenomenon without any big trophies to back them up. I regard Messi as the greatest football player of all time and CR7 would not make top ten. Maybe not even my top 20.
Hmmm, interesting… I would probably rank Ronaldo somewhere at the bottom of the top 10 or just outside, but definitely not lower than that. He has incomparably less skill and creativity than Messi on the ball, but he IS better under pressure and unbelievably efficient (I’ve never seen number comparisons between the two, but I imagine he’s a bit ahead of Messi on goals-to-games ratio – I’m not sure, though). He does less for his teams, I feel, than Messi, obviously has less speed and is less great at combination play, and is also maybe not as consistent (and is certainly nowhere near Messi’s genius in terms of talent), so I also still rate Messi clearly higher (I would agree with the description of best ever – I have for many years, in fact, and I’ve seen plenty of Maradona games in my life, even if I didn’t quite catch him live, at least not in his prime), but Ronaldo is great too.
Well said!
Attention mods: it would be fun if you could come up with two multi-choice polls of our favorite and least-favorite winners. I know my own favorites will get pummelled but it would be interesting nonetheless. This could become an annual post-Oscar tradition.
I have a feeling Colman would top both.
You’re right actually. The most polarizing categories would probably top both anyway. Not that interesting after all.
Olivia Colman, anything for Roma and probably Regina King. Least favorite, I´ll have to admit, Green Book and Lady Gaga – such a DRAMA queen! 🙂
And her speech: “It´s not about falling down, you have to stand up!” Oh REALLY?
Gaga gives the same speech every award. I do believe she’s a little high at those award shows.
Malek looked like he was high, but, to be fair, he always look like that.
Gaga can be very tiresome. Girl is one of the most succesful persons on Earth, her song won almost every possible prize this season and she’s still doing the “OMG I can’t believe I won against all odds!” lame schtick.
But…but…she “Worked. So. Hard!!!”
So did Diane Warren… she should team up with Glenn Close too!
Have you seen her in Five Foot Two? I kind of liked her up till then, but she is so phony in that movie and is constantly playing to the camera.
I didn’t even know about ‘Five Foot Two’. Like I said earlier this season, I stopped following her after ‘Born this Way’. She’s like a shooting star to me. She reached the top with her first couple albums and then lost her mojo. But I’m glad for her she’s still succesful somehow, I just don’t like what she does so much any more, and I do feel there is something insincere and most worryingly insecure about her, as if she could never be satisfied, she always needs to prove herself and be reassured that people love her. I would advise her to slow down a little, find inner peace and realize that she could retire in luxury today and be perfectly happy, that’s how she could find true greatness, by not looking for it!
Gaga is exhausting to watch and her “crying” is just embarassing, but at least her singing performance was very good.
Seconded!
whats up with all the shenanigans from spike lee ? he made good movies decades ago…in the last many years he has been consistently failing…he won a screenplay oscar and he is one among 4 writers on the movie. He is celebrating as if he made return of the king. I feel like he is over-celebrating. He is discrediting other winners with his remarks.
He’s always been a loudmouth.
Unlike some people, at least he has the talents to back it up.
his filmography has more garbage than good movies. His so-called impact is very narrow. Not a lot of people care about his films.
Zero people care about what you think, Braylon. Time to go back Breitbart.
We know who you are
that doesnt change the crap he made even one bit
I wish he showed that talent more often. Do the Right Thing was amazing, Malcolm X was fantastic, and he’s had a few other good films here and there but he’s definitely inconsistent in regards to his output.
This is his first Oscar win since he began making movies in the 1980s and you think he’s over-celebrating? Why don’t you save some of that hot take for Donald Trump, the king of over-boasting mediocrity?
spike lee being a troll has nothing to do with trump. Both can be irritating at the same time.
Yes, if he was upset because Blackkklansman didn’t win, then he’s just delusional (not saying Green Book winning was a good call).
he not upset blackkklansman won…..he is upset green book won
I remember reading this a while back, where Glenn Close said that she thought Olivia Colman would win, it may have changed as Close was winning awards. However, her prediction came true.
https://pagesix.com/2018/12/04/inside-opening-night-of-the-cher-show/
Although I did not like ‘The Favourite’, I do love Olivia Colman. It would have been fun if Sam Rockwell roared ‘Miller’ from the stage as that is what David Tennant’s character would scream at her in ‘Broadchurch’. She gave a fun speech, loved the way she stuck her tongue out when they told her she out of time. I also loved the fact that she worked as a cleaning woman and said he loved it. She was genuinely surprised and so gracious, a true and lovely lady
i knew her support was weak in the academy when she received the sole nomination for that movie. It was a two hander and when the actor who played her husband didn’t get nominated thats a tell tale sign.
So, anybody noticing how heavily LGTB this year was?
Green Book, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, 8 Oscars, including Picture, Original Screenplay and 3 acting awards for playing LGTB characters.
Add to this, that the other Big 8 awards went to hispanic and african-american films… and most technicals, too. Roma 3 awards, Beale Street 1, BlacKkKlansman 1 and Black Panther 3. Another 8. Only First Man, A Star is Born and Vice scratched anything outside that field. The expansion of the AMPAS to encourage diversity worked.
Technically, sure. But it’s hard to call it an LGBT heavy year since the only one of those films with any queer sensibility is The Favourite. I wouldn’t exactly call Green Book queer cinema, and dont get me started on the mustache twirling homosexual villains they created for Bohemian Rhapsody. And there were no actual LGBT winners (that I know of at least, I dont pretend to know the sexual orientations of all the Green Book producers).
er… are you aware that the real life characters portrayed in BR actually had moustache? LOL.
The gay backlash to BR is as ridiculous as it was the very same gay backlash to Cruising back in 1980. BR never says homosexuality corrupts but clearly state that Freddie had a tendency to excess from the get-go, and he only took his chances when they appeared in front of him.
Cruising provocked a huge tsunami of backlash because LGTB groups back then simply couldn’t understand that Friedkin decided to focus on the SM Leather community (where the real life events took place, that inspired the film) and in no way the film wanted to infer that all gay people was like that.
Gosh, people can overreact so easily!
I was using an expression dear. You thought I had a problem with their literal mustaches?
For an example of what I mean: take Paul. A completely one dimensional character who only exists in the film to corrupt Freddie. In many ways he represents Freddie’s connections to the gay world for this film. And perhaps he did indeed lead Freddie down a dark path and fueled his penchant for excess and kept him from working on projects he loved. BUT why on earth did Freddie stay with him for so long? The first time Paul kisses him, Freddie rebuffs him saying “you dont know me.” There is not one moment where we see love or care between them. Where we see the complicated nature of their connection. People who get trapped in emotionally or verbally abusive relationships often stay because the abuser is so good at manipulating them and reminding them that “oh he hurts me but sometimes he’s so kind and really cares for me. It’s not always bad.” There is no moment that cements their relationship, that convinced me why he would keep someone so toxic in his life. Because they were intent on keeping Paul as an archetypal villain (the cartoonish type people often refer to as “mustache twirling” regardless of their facial hair status). It’s one prime example out of many where the film skims over the details of history (particularly the details of any gay content) in favor of painting things as strictly black or white, good or bad. My problems with the film don’t stem from overreacting. I just find it to be a painfully simplistic and sanitized take on what could have been a fascinating character study. Besides Live-Aid, it’s all eye-rolling laziness.
It seems like you’re conflating issues here, as I dont find the backlash the same as the one for Cruising. I dont even know how you got there. Personally, I’m all for Cruising. If anything, Bohemian Rhapsody could have borrowed some of that film’s edge and frankness.
LGTB friends accuse Bohemian Rhapsody of depicting a vicious view on homosexuality. Same argument used against Cruising (a masterpiece, by the way, longing to see the director’s cut, one day)
ok, for one its LGBT. Second, I didnt bring in that argument if you read above. You did. It’s not about BR’s depiction of homosexuality. IT’s the depiction of everything as good/evil, black/white. To your original point which I replied to, this is one reason why the movie does not resonate as queer cinema. IT has no discernable personality, queer or otherwise, because it chooses to over simply everything.
it doesn’t have to be queer cinema. It’s a biopic of a band whose leader happened to be gay and enjoy in hedonist lifestyle. People is overreacting by saying that the film judges homosexuality all together by just citing a well known example which was anyways the focus of the project attention, not to preach about anything.
Thanks for so accurately remembering “Cruising” and its backlash. I have my problems with Friedkin, but with this movie he and Pacino set out to do something significant in exposing ONE ASPECT of gay life and at the same time making it clear that MOST gays didn’t engage in extreme behaviors. But in truth that kind of extremity and/or exploration was most definitely part of the zeitgeist, and some gays, though surely a minority, wanted to give it an airing, wanted to allow it to make its statement about, or some would say case for, sexual freedom of expression.
NOT a kind of expression most gays would go for, ever, but a lot of the gay community got very defensive about the movie. I was only peeking at some of the NYC leather scene at the time — definitely not a participant in it — and from what little I saw Friedkin and Pacino accurately captured the frenzy, the rush and the dread that were all mixed together in it. I don’t go as far as you do in another post and call “Cruising” a masterpiece, but it’s a slice of attempted gay empathy — accompanied by serious questioning — that needed to be tried. That final shot of Pacino dancing is truly haunting. As you also post elsewhere, a director’s cut of “Cruising” from Friedkin would be a vital contribution to gay movie history.
I dislike the scene, but I am widowed of a leather/bear bar owner, so I intimately know this gay scene, and I simply adore it. It’s the most soul-bonding one, if you ask me. SM and Leather demand complete trust in each other, and no leather man has a problem if you ever say NO to anything, or to play, he would continue bonding a true friendship that would last forever, no matter what, and they would always be there for you, when in need (unlike bears, for example, I suffered that when I was diagnosed with Ménière Syndrome or in the last 4 months when my brother-in-law agonized due to a tumour and I was basically the only one of the area, visiting him. The biggest support for my soul, in these 18 months since my husband died have become from the leather scene. Bears, not so much, most I know tend to be with you, only when in good times, rainbows and unicorns.
After getting introduced into the leather scene (by dating a Mr. Leather Spain, one of my very true friends, even if we didn’t end as a couple), my aprecciation for Cruising – which I already loved – skyrocketed. It is one of the most misunderstood masterpieces in movie history, in my opinion… I would L-O-V-E the uncensored director’s cut with all the explicit sex shot by volunteers in the Eagle’s dark rooms. That would make it a more complete film experience.
It was great for diversity but they still stunk the place by giving GB BP. what’s up with the love for GB and BR this year? At least Globes knew something and they picks don’t look so clueless as it did at the time. It will not a well remembered year. Let’s hope there are great BP line-up next year.
“what’s up with the love for GB and BR this year?”
They are enjoyable and people go for enjoyable over something that they admire but don’t enjoy. it’s no rocket science. I think Sasha explained that thousand times.
Yeah, that doesn’t explain anything. Sasha is just rationalising their success. The big clue is that Sasha doesn’t think they are great art that is worth celebrating. She doesn’t like them personally but thinks there is value to them because it gets one up on critics. This is a big feck you to critics. Well, bloody marvellous. GB will be in Oscar history and remain as a reminder of their folly decisions like “Crash” and DMD. It’s not rocket scientist. I think the critics are laughing their picks, not crying. Watch there will be an attempt to correct this mess next year. But maybe it would better if they continue to be a laughingstock.
so never-ending circle. finger, course correct, finger, course correct, rinse repeat. after giving critics the finger comes course correction and then another finger and another course correction and you know the drill. what’s achieved? nothing. at least the movie that left its audience positively Romatose didn’t win 2 Best Picture awards.
And for many people BP result doesn’t change much. “Roma” will still be known as a great achievement while GB will still be known as terrible film. It’s just that GB winning will be a laughingstock that the Academy will never live down. That’s all it is. I do not take issue if the Academy really thinks GB and BR are really the best of the year. I don’t agree, obviously, but hat’s fine. However, I do take issue in rewarding them just to say feck you to critics and pundits. That’s how we got Trump. We should make rational choices and not just vote to spite others.
“Roma” will still be known as a great achievement ” by the same small contingent that can’t get over Crash. They don’t represent general audience that didn’t see Roma and never will. For them, the only movies that were ever robbed are TDK and SPR cause, shock of shocks, they actually saw them and loved them. Bloggers do not represent everyone and their little bubble isn’t how others feel about winners/losers. in fact, in majority’s book, AMPAS has been picking the wrong winners for years and Oscar viewership decline reflects that. this telecast’s mini spike may be due to curiosity about big hit nominees such as BP, Bo Rhap and ASIB as well as star performances by Queen and Gaga. Not because of Roma.
The Academy didn’t vote BR best of the year. They only gave it Best Actor, Best Sounds and Best Editing. These aspects of the film were also highly praised by critics. The film had mixed reviews, as I said earlier, but Malek’s performance and the Live Aid concert were excellent, according to most critics. This is not reflected in their overall rating of the film, but you would need to read the reviews to discover that.
Green Book is a masterpiece I don’t know what are you talking about? It will be remembered for decades to come…
If you say so. Yeah, remembered for all the wrong reasons, like “Crash”.
Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody are not equivalent. The critical consensus on Green Book is positive. Not overwhelmingly positive, but still positive. BR is mixed.
As far as I know, Sasha does genuinely like Green Book.
Green Book never looked clueless. It was clear even before the Globes it was a real threat to win.
No, I mean GG looked clueless when they showered award on GB and BR. But as it turned out, they are the two biggest winners at the Oscars.
No, I know. Poor choice of words on my part. 🙂 I should have said “their picking Green Book never looked clueless, etc.” – that’s what I meant to say.
Which movie do you think was the runner-up?
BP or BR.
Roma for sure.
Roma
I don’t really know why it would be anything else than Roma. How is it losing best picture while winning everything else it was expected to proof that it wasn’t even runner-up?
Roma. Lot of love for it in the room. But I think Bohemian and Blackkklansman were close behind. I’m sure The Favourite and Black Panther were in the mix for a bit.
If BP wins Picture I’ll never watch the Oscars again
I’ll take it over Bohemian.
I’ll take ANYTHING over Black Panther.
If BP wins BP… lol!
Heresy!
I will say that I did not see all 8 Best Picture nominations but i did see 5 of them. Of the 5 i saw (The Favourite, Vice, Green Book, A star is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody) The Green Book was far and away the Best film of the year. It brought both humor and drama to a story that is just as powerful today as it was with the 60’s. The separation we have in the U.S. right now isn’t necessarily between black and white but between the difference in political views that we each have. This film shows more than race. It shows the difference between education and livelihoods which the majority doesn’t take into consideration in 2019. It shows that those differences can still support one another and be respectable.
As for the other films, Black Panther didn’t receive one nomination in a major category besides picture. Not to mention it was the 200th comic book movie to be made in the last 9 years. Roma, which may be a great film, honestly, shouldn’t have even been nominated. How does a film which is viewed primarily on live streaming on Netflix, get 10 nominations to begin with. Because you put it on 20 big screens around the country a month after its released on the computer? The Favourite is a horrible film with one of the worst endings in film history. I am shocked that Colman won considering she wasn’t even the 2nd best actor in her own film. Vice was way too political but was still worthy of the nominations it received. Bohemian may have got the time lines wrong and may be historically inaccurate but basing it strictly on a film, it was entertaining and unlike the Favourite, had one of the best endings in film with Live Aid 1985. A Star is born is a decent film but when you remake the same story 50 times at what point is enough enough? And although I didn’t see Blackkklansman, I had it pegged to win Best Picture solely based on it being nominated in Pic/Dir/Editing, one of only 3 this year that can claim that. Did the academy feel like giving Lee his first win in Screenplay as enough award? Maybe.
For me the biggest problem I have this year was They Shall not Grow Old getting snubbed. It was brought to my attention a few weeks ago that it was released as a Doc after the dead line for the Awards. But how did this film get overlooked as Best Picture? It basically fit the same path Roma did by being released on TV first than on screens in Great Britain in November. If the Academy is waiting to nominate this film next year because of the wide release in February, I am ok with it. But my guess is this is going to be overlooked again and that’s a damn shame!
https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/films/1091939/Oscars-2019-Best-Picture-Green-Book-backlash-worst-winner-Roma/amp
Oscars Backlash- worst Best Picture winner ever
https://www.latimes.com/entertainment/movies/la-et-mn-oscars-green-book-worst-best-picture-winner-20190224-story.html?outputType=amp
Worst Best Picture Since Crash
http://m.startribune.com/oscars-add-to-list-of-worst-awards-in-history/506307752/
Green Book goes down as one of the worst calls in history
Congrats to Colman, winning one of the least likely of The Favourite’s nominations. I was accepting it was going home with 0, which would have been really shit.
I don´t agree, but I´d say that “Green Book” is certainly a boring choice for Best Picture.
Green Book is the worst best picture winner since… (fill in the blanks)
I’d say The Artist
Braveheart
How can any Oscar winner be even worse than “Chicago”?
I should probably rewatch Chicago. I don’t remember liking the film that much but I was really young back then so I’m kind of not trusting my dislike of it
It’s better than Dreamgirls, I’ll give it that
Almost anything is.
I found it totally empty and forgetable, but what made it´s victory even worse was that it won over a masterpiece like “The Pianist”.
Okay, let´s say… Argo.
12 Years a Slave, but that’s clearly an unpopular opinion.
The Express is a bit too sensationalist to be taken seriously, but there will be a serious backlash for sure. Prepare for arthouse dominating next year.
AMPAS is so used to backlash by now that they won’t bat an eye.
It’s soooo SURREAL going from Farrelly and Vallelonga winning to Spike. It was literally MAD! The Oscars gosh.
Green Book screenplay Baby
Best Picture next?
For years to come we will be like going like this: Best Picture: “Green Book”.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/adbc13653e66fab40c5853316f776f3ec3827981a75396c90df70b56847e21b9.jpg
Not really. I still think Crash is worse.
Crash is definitely worse but Green Book wasn’t much better. This comes from someone who liked Green Book btw.
Are you sure you liked it? Haha
I did, I think it’s a solid film overall. Great / worthy of a Best Picture win it is not though, especially in a year where films of such caliber were nominated (Roma, The Favourite).
I preferred “Crash”. I feel “Crash” was actually interesting and was trying to do something. GB was very safe and so bland that it wasn’t even worth hating. This is why it will always be the of the laughable BP wins.
Crash is worse not just in itself but also because it won over Brokeback Mountain. I think that’s ten times worse than bland Green Book winning over Roma.
Well, that is it. “Crash” got too much hate because it beat BBM. And the same was more or less true for “Shakespeare in Love” which beat SPR. But those two films were on higher plain than GB. “Roma” was not so slam dunk as BBM SPR. But GB is definitely worse and DMD 2. It wasn’t taking risks like “Crash”, who had a good screenplay. It didn’t quite come off but “Crash” was trying something a bit out there than safe and bland GB and DMD.
I’m still mad Crash won over BM. I’ll never forgive them.
No way is Crash worse. At least the people who made Crash were well-meaning if tone-deaf. Green Book is a vanity project by an Islamaphobe who wanted nothing more than to prop up the legend of his own father.
It is FOR ME.
We were do another “Crash” moment. I said that if there was a last minute shocker it was more likely to be GB than TF. I mean, look at Oscar history; it’s littered with it. Preferential doesn’t change anything and the films, even the terrible ones, win because the Academy likes them more than the others. “Roma” looks to have been hurt by FLF and Netflix as well, it seems.
One amazing thing to realize:
Jaime Ray Newman has one more Oscar than Glenn Close, Amy Adams, Anette Benning, Michelle Williams, Jessica Chastain and Helena Bonham Carter combined.
Who? this sums up the fact Oscars aren’t everything.
Best live-action short co-winner and one of those major “hey, it’s that gal” faces on various TV shows.
Kobe Bryant does too…
The Academy missed a chance last night in taking a step into the future by awarding a foreign language film that´s both artistically challenging and also a perfect respresentation of the international language of cinema, directed by a true auteur and visionary story-teller.
Instead they chose a film that represents the past, a typical by-the-numbers candidate from the 1980s in the line of average crowdpleasers like “Rain Man” or “Driving Miss Daisy”.
Truly, they missed a chance – innovative cinema get´s awarded elsewhere.
Picking a foreign language film distributed by Netflix would be asking too much of an industry that is notorious in protecting its own. The PGA (the true powers that be) also picked Green Book.
This and the slow paced storytelling that was somehow irritating to many members, I guess.
Olivia, Olivia, Olivia! Love this women and love her win. (sorry, Glenn so close but no cigar. I saw Colman win coming after her BAFTA win.)
Overall-a fairly efficient show- but it lacked warmth. I guess the non-host thing works but I think the right host (think Ellen or Steve Martin) can bring humor and warmth to the proceedings- and most importantly- bring a human touch to the show. When Martin or Ellen connect with the stars in the crowd-then we connect too. Last night-I felt the crowd in the theater was detached from the crowd at home becuase there were so few interactions from the stage (Streisand’s comments to Spike Lee was a welcome standout.) Shocked at Colman winning-but glad for her. Overall- the show gets a C from this viewer.
I agree but let’s face it, it went easier without those annoying bits like “food to the audience” or time-wasting stuff of the past.
Wholeheartedly agree re: time-wasting stuff-God was that a relief we didn’t have to sit thru that again. Maybe they could skip the host- but bring in a few talented people in the industry and have them (briefly) converse with the crowd throuhgout the show to help engage people at home.
Bring back the host, but not those!
You are SPOT ON. I want the host BACK!
The only reason it won is that there wasnt any great film. But you (they) had to avoid Roma (FL, Netflix) and find something else. There wasnt much else compared to the past 2-3 years. Dont think it means the AMPAS looooves it or there is any social statement.
The Shape of Water last year was the worst nominee, against 3 masterpieces and 3 excellent films, and yet it still managed to win. Simply, sadly, these are the exact types of films that win.
It was a weak lineup, but Green Book would have won regardless.
Olivia Colman won Best Actress
Spike Lee won Best Adapted Screenplay
Free Solo won Best Documentary
Spider-Man won Animated Feature
No matter what happens, I am happy with these Oscars.
I think Beale Street should have won best adapted screenplay.
One comment on ‘Green Book’ winning Best Picture is that this is one of the rare instances where The Academy chooses to award the top prize to a Comedy. Best Picture is historically given to Dramas. So it is nice to see Comedy get some higher recognition. Though in this case, I would have selected between ‘BlacKkKlansman’, ‘Roma’ and ‘Black Panther’ for Best Picture. Imagine if ‘Black Panther’ had won the big one: The shockwaves that would have been sent hurling through social media and moviegoers everywhere would have been EPIC! But…perhaps they’re playing the same kind of waiting game they did with ‘LOTR’ in this case. Only time will tell. Overall, a pretty good night for myself, as I went 18 for 24. Not too shabby.
Green Book starts out as a comedy, but it gets more serious as it goes along. The last half has no laughs at all, it’s pure drama/road movie/buddy movie.
It Happened One Night was a comedy, Green Book has comedic moments, which is a different thing.
The Favourite is actually a comedy, and way more deserving than Green Book.
OT: Spike Not a gracious man….https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/spike-lee-reacts-green-books-oscars-win-1190271
Preliminary overnight ratings: 21.6/36. Up 14% from last year, still 2nd lowest Oscar rating ever.
https://deadline.com/2019/02/2019-oscars-ratings-rise-spike-lee-protest-green-book-abc-1202564523/
UPDATE: 20.6/34, up 9%. Numbers now in from Detroit, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Columbus & Buffalo.
that tends to happen when you play queen at the starting of the show…what are they gonna do next year ? elton john ? show should stand on its own and on film industry to get rating and not rely on pop stars
Maybe I don’t get how US TV ratings work, as I am not American, but wouldn’t it make more sense if they moved the Academy Awards ceremony to a Saturday night ? I can tell you that, overseas, many of us can’t watch it in full because it is too late due to the time zone difference and the following day is a school/working day.
Friday/Saturday in USA are the worst night for TV.
It tends to be the same in most western countries really, and even if such a move did please foreign Oscar aficionados, most of them are probably already watching anyway, so the eventual additional foreign viewers would not compensate the loss of American viewers.
Sunday is the best night for TV, since people usually stay home. HBO saves their best shows for that day.
I was never so disappointed at the Oscars as I am now. Go ahead and laugh at me, I deserve it for wasting my precious time feeding empty hopes here. If Glenn wasn’t gonna win no matter what, they could’ve just kept her from winning the major precursors. Seriously, f-word them.
Exactly.I have been in a state shock since her loss.
The best thing about Green Book wins is egg in the face of certain toxic Internet forum that went as far as digging up old tweets in order to kill the movie, exactly the same tactic that they condemned and picketed when it was used against someone they supported. serves them right and their tears are delicious.
Another thing to note on Glenn Close:
I just think she hasn’t had that ONE performance in that ONE movie in that ONE year that has made her “undeniable”. Simple as that.
I DO think she is beloved. But sometimes you need a little help and, I suppose that love/admiration can only take you so far amid a specific set of circumstances.
In this case, The Favourite had 10 nominations and Colman was stiff competition and she’s charming as hell.
She should be given an honorary Oscar for lifetime achievement, which would be fair.
Sure, that way you make sure she never wins a competitive one anyway.
Yep, she needs that vehicle. Being a lone nominee of a movie is truly a hurdle, no matter how much a narrative is being pushed. Julianne Moore got it but the competition was a lot weaker. At least she didn’t lose it to Gaga, but to a genuine thespian.
But time is running out for her. The Sunset Boulevard musical is still risky. It could be a bomb in execution.
Are you alright? Moore’s competition was a lot weaker? This year Best Actress nominees bar Colman are weak as hell. Easily the 2nd weakest this decade (weakest being the year Larson won). Yalitza Aparicio? Hell, almost anyone deserves to be nominated over her. Lady Gaga? She was solid but over someone like Collette? Lol! Mccarthy was good but did not nail the role either. Moore’s year you have the amazing Marion Cotillard, and Pike totally nailed the 2nd act then you have a beautifully understated performance from Jones. The only one that was weak is Witherspoon. In Moore’s year you have FOUR great to excellent performances in her category whereas this year you have ONE excellent performance (Colman’s) and Close is good at best. Really not sure what were you watching when you say Moore’s competition was a lot weaker maybe it is time for you to revisit those performances to refresh your memory.
I’m all right, thanks. You only need ONE stiff competition to lose. Colman was that stiff competition and she won. Moore’s competition: Cotillard had already won recently, and Pike was more or less a small role in a crime drama.
Oh my bad. You were talking about their chances of winning instead of the performance qualities. Yes, Moore won by a landslide that year as she basically swept all the industry awards. But IMHO, it is Close who did not give an undeniable performance and her chances of winning has been shaky ever since the very beginning. Colman won the most critics awards followed by Collette. Close couldn’t even won the Gotham and need to tie her BFCA with Gaga. Everybody was just overhyping her after her Globe speech and her SAG win and discredit Colman’s BAFTA to British bias. Not saying Colman wasn’t a stiff competition but rather Close herself is weak in terms of her performance and chances of winning.
Winning an Oscar is never a given, no matter who you are and how good you are. It’s about timing and luck and a confluence of reasons. The Wife always felt kind of stale b/c it premiered in Toronto in 2017. Now it’s 2019. Had they released it at the end of 2017, she might have had a better chance.
We’re trying to rationalize it now. And who knows? She might have lost it by a few votes.
Totally agreed but had it been released a year earlier she would not stand a chance in hell as 2017 Best Actress were super crazy stiff. But I honestly think there are certain percentage of the Academy members that don’t like her. No matter what she does it seems she is not getting her competitive Oscar. They rather gave Streep a 3rd one than her 1st. Then this year they have the absolute best chance to award her yet they rather gave it to a 1st time nominated British actress (which IMHO absolutely deserved it). Guess we all just need to live with the fact that she is likely to never win a competitive Oscar in her lifetime but then again who knows?
For some, it’s never enough.
Glenn lost to two actress that scored the only nominations for their much less respected films than The Wife. Or The Year of Living Dangerously and The Accused are somehow more respected than The Wife?
There was no competition between Close’s role in the Big Chill and Linda Hunt. And that was only Close’s 2nd nomination, so there was no overdue.
And sometimes it’s the role as well. While Close was effective in Dangerous Liaisons, she was more or less part of an ensemble whereas Foster was the sole lead in a victim/fight back role.
It’s also about timing and luck. That said, last night was rough.
I wonder if voters had known back then what we know now – that Jodie would win again only three years later and that Glenn would still have none THIRTY years later – whether they would still have voted for Jodie over Glenn? They probably assumed that at 40 years of age, and given the success she had had in the 80’s, Glenn would be nominated many times again and much sooner than 2012.
What two women do in the privacy of their home is not my business. Lady Gaga can be a thespian if she wants!
But seriously, Close is getting a bit old for that part.
It looks like the ratings are UP from last year. I hope this means NO host going forward or else just an emcee-style chaperon who links the show together but who isn’t a stand up comic or a talk-show host.
Of course, the Academy might have to nominate Avengers: End Game or The Lion King to match the audience’s interest next year.
I was shocked. I literally yelled when Sam announced Coleman the winner. OMG
I did not expect this. I was certain Close would finally win her Oscar. But Coleman’s reaction was something to see. Even she didn’t believe it!
LOVED It was nice when she mentioned Glenn Close in her speech about admiring her and didn’t want/expect for it to be like this and Close’s response!!!!
I wish Spike Lee would have won for Best Director! Alfonso already has an Oscar! As much as I like Lee I didn’t like his speech, of course not what he said, just the way it come out. Wish he hadn’t read from a paper.
Gosh, I hate those who read a long list of names in their speech. Come on! End then it runs over time, embarrassing especially when you have multiple winners and someone gets cut off because the previous ones took longer.
Some of those speeches were just awful. FFS, you don’t need to thank everybody by name. Think of something original!
Bring it home Wakanda.
Wakanda Forever!
Uh-oh I think BP is going to take it.
I am splitting up with the Oscars if that really happens
I will consider it, too.
Slept about 2-3 hours fewer than I would have liked, but it’s probably just about enough so I don’t doze off at any point today. 🙂 There’s just too much to unpack about this Green Book win… I think I’m going to do the thing I’ve done throughout this season and first get in every reaction to everything about it (probably in more of a gradual fashion than usual, as there’s just too much for a single post), and only then start reading replies and previous comments. Who knows whether I’ll even be able to get through the first part in one day?! 🙂 I might not have time to work much today, as originally planned. I’m too excited and there’s too much to do. Thankfully, I have the option to skip a work day whenever I wish, given that I have no boss. (Which might change in the upcoming months, if productivity doesn’t go up somehow. I’ve usually been at my most productive during the summer, though, so there’s still hope on that front.)
Have a good day. I have a long day here at school (I came so close to a day off due to high winds) then have a hair appointment, so I have to wait longer to hear all the podcasts and read the fallout.
I only slept for about 5 hours and a half. Coffee is the elixir of life for me right now.
🙂 I don’t even drink coffee. I eat a lot of fruit shortly after I get up, which seems to help when I haven’t slept much.
By looking at acting winners group photo I can clearly see why rami malek won best actor in a lead role. He is shorter than even olivia colman. In what world will he ever be a lead actor in a major motion picture ? That is exactly why academy loves to vote for him. They feel good about voting for him. Getting major adrien body vibes. I predict great things for him in the vein of adrien brody.
Mark my words..vice is to christian bale what wolf of wall street is to Leonardo DiCaprio. With both movies, their respective stars proved that they are willing to take risks and make movies that are not oscar bait or roles that are oscar bait. Now this year is the first time since the fighter, bale was a legit contender. So i am just waiting for christian bale’s revenant. A movie where he is not playing a bad guy but bad things happen to him.
In what world will he ever be a lead actor in a major motion picture?
Dustin Hoffman says hello. So, in a way, does Bogart.
Other short actors have also been stars, like Alan Ladd and Tom Cruise, but of course those two were much more handsome and dashing than Malek and therefore could convincingly play romantic/action leads (helped by whatever tricks a director could deploy in order to make them appear tall on screen).
Malek has a winsome, enigmatic, sometimes bedeviled, and even menacing, face. Sometimes he draws you in. Other times you push him away, warily. You can size him up in different ways, like Bogart. It depends on the lighting and the angles from which he’s shot. Also, crucially, the script. The writing was what told you how to read Bogart’s character in any given role. Granted Hoffman has never been a romantic lead (the beautiful Katharine Ross in “The Graduate” could easily have gotten another guy, which is what made their connection oddly compelling). But Hoffman’s career has depended more on being a character lead than a romantic lead, which may be one route for Malek. And I’ll grant that Bogart had an animal magnetism that Malek hasn’t shown so far. So Malek is going to be an interesting case. But impossible to cast as a lead actor? I don’t think so at all.
Look at rami’s face. Dustin hoffman has an all american face. He appeals to average looking middle aged men all over america in his hey days. Don’t even get me started on tom cruise. His looks alone will compensate for his height. I don’t really see a lot of middle aged americans standing in line to see a middle eastern actor who looks a bit weird headlining a motion picture. Its just fact. If rami malek looked like tom cruise or brad pitt then thats a different story.
There is a reason why not even British actors are major box office movie stars in america except may be christian bale. American audience gravitate to american-ness in their movie stars.
So far. Maybe the times they are a changing?
the traditonal way of making movie stars as mastered by harvey weinstein with matt damon is to create this boy next door image. Weinstein has a major part in shaping matt damon as a movie star in hollywood. All american – boy next door with good looks is a reliable way to create a movie star in US.
In what world will he ever be a lead actor in a major motion picture ?
Erm, this world.
He’s just won the Best Actor Oscar for playing the lead actor in a film which has just won 4 Oscars and which boasts enormous, worldwide box office returms.
You might as well also ask in what world would he ever be an Emmy award winner for Lead Actor in a Drama Series.
Same answer. This one.
Malek is American.
he is Egyptian american as opposed to european american.
So you’re saying they’re racist. Which might be quite true.
Quite frankly, Malek looks like he is always high on something, but that is just my impression and I don’t mean it in a negative way.
Bale has an impressive artistic range and I bet a considerable number of casual movie goers don’t even know he is British. In fact, one couldn’t tell it from most of his roles over the past 15 years at least.
BTW, he has actually been a dual UK/US citizen since 2014.
i think it was very clever of bale to find that niche. I always felt that he couldn’t compete with brad pitt / leonardo dicaprio in the pure blonde haired/blue eyed movie star arena. He has that macho look that is not suited for international movie stars unless you become an action star like tom cruise. So impressionistic acting sets him apart from a lot of his contemporaries like ben affleck/matt damon/ etc…
I enjoyed Green Book more than Roma.
I knew Hollywood would not reward Netflix. Notice that Farrelly thanked Steven Spielberg? It took me a while to figure that out, but Spielberg wrote an essay why movies belong in theaters.
Voters right now after having to sit through all the whining and fake woke shit for the entire season. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d1d794343f37dd9128fddcb3cb4d73d2de29204c83be5fd65aec3e57f4e01c75.gif
Sasha was so right in that political piece. Backlash and smear campaigns don’t work and they often yield opposite results.
It seems like Sasha is right about many things lol
Spike not happy: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/spike-lee-reacts-green-books-oscars-win-1190271
How to comment on a Academy that chose a Happy Meal at McDonald´s over a three-course menu in a five-star restaurant? OUCH!
That said, I should have trusted my original instinct, which I commented about in December after I saw “Roma” for the first time: “I think this is simply too subtle and too artistical for the Academy. I really have doubts that it can win Best Picture, not because of a Netflix bias or because it being an subtitled foreign language
film, but the Academy usually prefers their dramas with more sentiment
and pathos.”
I finally predicted “Roma” though because I wanted to believe in a Academy that changed due to new members, more diversity e.g. Well, they didn´t, or: not just yet!
That´s disappointing on the one hand, on the other hand I´m long time aware of the fact that the Academy´s taste and mine are two totally different things. Oh well, whatever, nevermind… 😉
I was wondering what do you think about the naked guy at Roma doing martial arts…that’s what people call a three course meal at a five star restaurant….no thanks
Its Boyhood all over again
what on earth do you mean?????
That scene was a perfect statement about poisoned masculinity. But I know that US audiences sometimes have a problem with nudity – certainly a heritage of the puritans…
I thought Green Book or the Favourite was the sleeper winner.
I don’t agree about The Favourite. They obviously didn’t like it. I actually think both BP and BR were ahead.
I always thought it´s between “Roma” and “Green Book” since many weeks ago. When “Green Book” received an award for it´s screenplay (certainly a lesser achievement of it), I knew it´s gonna be damn close … “The Favourite” could have won Costumes, Production Design and Original Screenplay if it was more popular.
Green Book will be forgotten in a month. Roma now joins the Raging Bull/Brokeback/SPR etc. club
I also think that Netflix’s splurgy campaing coupled with most people (critics, pundits, media) constantly pushing it for BP backfired. Classic boomerang-effect.
There was certainly a bias against Netflix. But aside, “Roma” is really more a candidate for the prestigious film festivals and the critics circle awards, that wouldn´t even touch something like “Green Book” with a barge-pole.
True
Exactly
Netflix still won in acquiring Roma
I believe so, too.
I believe so, too.
Thank god for the Colman win.
Green Book has been the predictable fait accompli win all season, and on the heels of the similar The Shape of Water we have the worst back-to-back winners in Oscar history. I’d like to think that we’ve had to suffer through this nadir for something truly monumental winning in the near-future.
Are you kidding me?
The Kings Speech and The Artist would like a word
Uggie made that movie watchable.
I guess the best way to go about this is to get the overall impressions and stuff about predictions out of the way first. I’ll start off by saying that, of the things that seemed like they could win (it, Roma and The Favourite), Green Book was the one I liked the most. Looking back, I was surprised to see that the movie I was most rooting for out of the 2-3 most likely has won Best Picture five out of the last six years. (Although I only marginally preferred Moonlight to La La Land, and that might be reversed for me now – if it’s not, it probably will be, over time, as La La Land is just so much more rewatchable, even if it’s clearly more flawed than the movie that beat it.) So, that’s pretty cool! It’s in keeping with my generally very high agreement rate with the Academy’s winners. Of course, it would have been even better had A Star is Born won, but that was never happening after the SAG defeat.
With my Oscar bets, I basically broke even. I had under $40 placed, in total (I never bet much, plus, for me, $40 is a not insignificant amount of money), and lost about 3% of my stakes. (About a dollar.) Minor loss on Best Picture. (I caught 8 to 1 odds on Green Book early on, when I made my October stat-based bet on that, A Star is Born and Roma, and placed a little bit more on it later on, in increments, though in the end I of course would have gotten back more of my stake had The Favourite, BlacKkKlansman or Vice – all of which I would have made a profit on, since they always had such great odds – or Roma won… The fact that I gradually stopped believing Green Book would win, due to the nominations ranking stat, cost me some further value bets I would have surely placed on its always pretty favorable odds, had that not been the case.) Minor profit on the other categories. Bets I cashed in on, apart from BP (which was an overall loss, but of course I did win my bet on Green Book, specifically): Olivia Colman, Rami Malek (both biggish wins – on the latter, because I bet hard, as I thought even the fairly low odds he was being given were value, and on the former because her odds were insanely good), Black Panther for costumes, First Man for visual effects, A Star is Born to win no more than one award and The Favourite to win an acting award. Obviously, I lost a number of other value bets… 🙂 Had The Favourite won even one other award above the line (picture, screenplay or supporting actress), I would have made a serious profit.
For easier reference, these were my final official and unofficial predictions I gave a few days ago (those I got right, in bold font), with notes on the outcomes below:
“The first prediction is the one based almost exclusively on stats – where close, I went with the stats I found to be more convincing. The one in brackets is my intuitive prediction, what I expect to see win (specified only when it’s not the same as my official prediction), sometimes in spite of the stats. Those are mostly boring, the stuff most pundits are predicting.
Best Picture – The Favourite (Roma)
Best Director – Cuaron
Best Actor – Malek
Best Actress – Colman (Close)
Best Supporting Actor – Ali
Best Supporting Actress – King
Best Original Screenplay – The Favourite
Best Adapted Screenplay – BlacKkKlansman
Best Film Editing – The Favourite (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Best Cinematography – Roma
Best Production Design – The Favourite
Best Costume Design – The Favourite
Best Sound Editing – Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Sound Mixing – Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Original Score – Black Panther
Best Original Song – Shallow
Best Makeup & Hairstyling – Vice
Best Visual Effects – First Man (Avengers: Infinity War)
Best Foreign Language Film – Roma
Best Documentary Feature – Free Solo
Best Animated Feature – Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Best Live Action Short – Mother
Best Documentary Short – End Game (Period. End of Sentence.)
Best Animated Short – Late Afternoon (Bao)”
(By the way, for anyone wondering, the tallied anonymous voters ballot only went 11/24. Though they were really only way off about Grant, The Favourite for screenplay and Vice for editing, who had significant leads over the things that won. Green Book lost BP by one vote in the preferential tally of said anonymous votes, signalling that it was stronger than The Favourite, which was knocked out in third, because it had had a lot fewer first place votes than both Green Book and Roma, and couldn’t catch up.)
Notes:
– as can be seen, and as I’ve already mentioned twice now, I got butchered by The Favourite’s poor showing, as every single category I got wrong in feature film was one where I had The Favourite predicted (officially);
– I also got butchered by the shorts, as I’d expected, with regard to my official predictions… At least I got 2/3 of my intuitive predictions there right (it pays to see them all, as they say), and I really probably should have gotten the third one right, too, as my gut was telling me Skin (not Marguerite, one of my “won’t win” calls), which I mentioned to at least one or two people, but for some reason I didn’t go with that, even for my unofficial prediction, but committed the cardinal sin of Oscar predictions, according to Jack Matthews (was it him?!) – picking the nominee I liked more (which was also ahead on stats);
– about the documentary short 40′ rule, specifically, one of the few truly strong stats for the shorts, I also said repeatedly that I thought this year was probably going to be a new exception to it, since End Game was the only nominee that wasn’t much shorter than that in the category, which isn’t usually the case, plus Period made a lot of sense to me as the winner (hence the unofficial pick), even though I didn’t like it much myself;
– 6/8 in the above-the-line categories is below my average, which isn’t great, but, given how many of the races were truly unclear, and the fact that I called the Colman upset (well, again, the stats did, but at least I didn’t make any mistakes in reading them, like I did for screenplay – of course, there’s also the very sensible argument that I just got lucky the slight stats/precedents favorite held in that category, as opposed to other similarly close races), maybe it’s also not a catastrophe;
– however, it was really neat that I got 4/4 right for acting, especially since I went for the weird Colman-wins-but-Weisz-loses scenario, plus, of course, both those categories and lead actor, at the very least, were rather unclear, stats-wise and not only… I love the Kidman-Cotillard precedents path for actress, by the way! Streep also mostly followed that path, and now there’s Olivia, too;
– other calls I was happy to see the stats, and my reading of them, get right, were First Man for visual effects (the production design nomination was my main reason for predicting it, as well as the fact that it had the most nominations in the category, by far – also, it’s so great that it won SOMETHING, at least, and we got to hear some of that amazing score), Free Solo for documentary (ACE, especially, has very high correlation to the Oscar winner here, and BAFTA isn’t bad at predicting it either), Black Panther for original score (its only stats issue was the BAFTA snub, but the only movie to not miss anywhere else, Mary Poppins Returns, had no above-the-line nominations, and every winner in this category since at least 2000 – I don’t remember whether I checked further back – has had at least one), Bohemian Rhapsody for sound editing (all nine outright winners in this category since the expanded ballot, as well as one of the movies involved in the tie in that category in 2013, were nominated for Best Picture, which, coupled with the fact that the sound categories so often go together, I figured trumped the extra foley nomination and win for A Quiet Place) and, of course, Regina King for supporting actress (the stat about all 12 supporting actors in the BFCA era, in both categories, to win the Golden Globe, Critics Choice and at least one of the most prestigious critical awards – NYFCC, LAFCA or NSFC – winning the Oscar, as well as the fact that only Tilda Swinton managed to win only the BAFTA, but not also either the Globe, the Critics Choice, SAG or one of the aforementioned critics prizes – I don’t remember whether NBR was also necessary for this stat or not -, and win the Oscar in this category, since Marisa Tomei, I figured meant there was less precedent for Regina King losing after winning basically all of those, than her SAG+BAFTA snubs, as Marcia Gay Harden had won without those, and both Rachel Weisz and Melissa Leo had won without the BAFTA nomination);
– about The Favourite’s many losses (it becomes, I believe, the first movie with any Oscar nominations at all to win six or more BAFTA awards but not win at least three Oscars, which is SO bizarre, ESPECIALLY since they still awarded Olivia Colman) in categories it might have won, had they liked it more (it clearly, and sadly, WAS just an internet thing – by the way, my thought as I was watching one of the clips for it early on in the ceremony was “this movie is just too cool to win Best Picture”!):
…….. – Best Picture I will address later, of course, in a larger post about the stats in that category, what adjustment(s) I’ll be making to my system, and so on;
…….. – Best Supporting Actress, and Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone’s defeats, I’ve already discussed (see the stuff about Regina King’s win, directly above);
…….. – Best Original Screenplay… This obviously was nowhere near a stats lock (the fact that I was so confident The Favourite would win wasn’t based on stats, but just – now, obviously faulty – logic), with The Favourite only winning BAFTA, of the major precursors… The fact that all of the Golden Globe winners that didn’t win any of the other major precursors in the BFCA era went on to lose the Oscar (plus some critics awards nomination stats working against Green Book) seemed to me like it should at least marginally make it the front runner here, as BAFTA-only winners have also mostly lost in the same time period, but some of them had actually won before – the ones in the BAFTA-as-an-Oscar-precursor era being The Return of the King and Talk to Her (which were a while ago, but that’s still more precedent). However, I realize, looking back on my file, that I made a fairly serious error here, overlooking one of my strongest stats for this category: the only movie since 1993 to win the Oscar over a movie that had beaten it at the Globe for screenplay, WITH BOTH NOMINATED THERE, was La La Land. I don’t know if being reminded of this stat would have made me predict Green Book instead, but, at the very least, it would have made me waaay less confident that it was going to be The Favourite… (Which might have factored into my precedents analysis for Best Picture, as well, since it would have meant Green Book was significantly stronger for screenplay than I thought, so I might have given it more than 11% chances, based on that, and The Favourite less than 26%.)
…….. – Best Film Editing… was just a painfully difficult category to call. Bohemian Rhapsody was the only one with the sound mixing nomination, a stat I was very much aware of, but it had also been snubbed by the BFCA (which was on 100% in 9 years). The main reason I went with The Favourite was that it was the only one nominated for the Gold Derby award in that category (also a 100% stat, until now, over 16 years). Had I not added that into the mix, I might have gone for Vice, anyway, because of the Critics Choice thing. It’s not clear what I would have done. Anyway, I don’t think this is a big deal, as a Gold Derby stat definitely helped me get Best Actress right, so the jury’s still out, as far as I’m concerned, on whether Gold Derby Awards stats are helpful or just random and misleading;
…….. – Best Costume Design was another very tough one (though The Favourite was ahead), as Black Panther’s only real problem was the BAFTA snub (BAFTA’s bizarre aversion towards “black” movies screws me again), and its Critics Choice win was a very strong precursor;
…….. – Best Production Design was roughly the same thing, as Black Panther again had only the BAFTA snub to worry about, and had, in fact, won more relevant precursors than for costumes (since it also won ADG and LAFCA, in addition to the Critics Choice award in this category).
And, last but not least, I also give my full list of “won’t win” calls for this year’s Oscars (all of which I got right, maintaining my – as far as I’m aware – all-time record of 100%):
“All “won’t win” calls for the 2019 Oscars:
These are, again, for the record, the things I’m claiming with great confidence definitely won’t win (I’ve added some at the last moment, but not gone back on anything, of course) – only the stuff somebody might consider actually predicting to upset:
Best Picture: A Star is Born, Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther
Best Director: Spike Lee
Best Actor: Bradley Cooper
Best Film Editing: Green Book
Best Foreign Language Film: Cold War
Best Live Action Short: Marguerite (this one’s a bit crazy, as it’s the most predicted by the pundits, but I want to do at least one riskier one besides picture, and I like this call)”
So, anyway… if any of y’all know any of the people who get nominated next year and see that I’ve called it that they absolutely are not going to win, be sure to let them know not to bother preparing a speech! 🙂 Save some time and energy…
P.S.: This and everything else I post today will definitely be posted other places, too. Probably several.