Last year’s surprise win by Olivia Colman broke a fairly long-standing trend of a Best Actress contender getting out front early, hitting the campaign trail, and being as ubiquitous as possible until at last collecting the prize. Instead, Olivia Colman won as The Favourite’s only Oscar win out of 11 nominations. Colman barely campaigned, really only put herself in lead instead of supporting hoping to be thought of more as a lead performer rather than a supporting character player. She admits she never thought she’d actually win. Glenn Close was following the trajectory of Julianne Moore, whose performance in Still Alice was the vehicle to carry her all the way to the win. Like Close, and every Best Actress winner before her going back quite a long way, Moore campaigned hard for that win. It was highly unusual to see such an 11th hour shocker — why they didn’t want to bestow Close with that prize will have to remain a mystery. And before you say “but it wasn’t that good” or “Colman was better,” just imagine my face looking directly at you and saying, “oh please.” It’s never about that, folks. Except when it is.
To that end, it’s a little harder to predict how this year’s race will go now that our frontrunner juggernaut for Best Actress has been upended. There are a few rules that can still be applied, however, even though we are all going to be bouncing off of this surprise win when making our picks. You might think, as I am, of Renee Zellweger, who has already amassed much buzz for her performance as Judy Garland, or you might be thinking about Amy Adams’ lack of Oscar wins and that surely this might be her year with The Woman in the Window.
Only a few of the contenders or frontrunners laid out by Anne Thompson in her very early piece seem all that solid to me. It’s not unusual to have so few contenders in Best Actress compared to Best Actor — that is the norm. A year like last year, with so many women competing for five slots, was the exception.
Unlike Best Actor, having Best Picture heat isn’t usually an advantage, although it clearly helped Colman last year. In looking over Anne’s list, you are not looking at Best Picture contenders here so much as star vehicles for central female performances, with a few exceptions, of course.
Here is how Anne lists them as of the end of April:
Frontrunners:
Awkwafina (“The Farewell”)
Julianne Moore (“Gloria Bell”)
Lupita Nyong’o (“Us”)
Alfre Woodard (“Clemency”)
Contenders:
Renee Zellweger (“Judy”)< –Anne this one off but I assume she meant to put her in.
Amy Adams (“The Woman in the Window”)
Cynthia Erivo (“Harriet”)
Anne Hathaway (“Dry Run,” “The Last Thing He Wanted”)
Jennifer Hudson (“Cats”)
Scarlett Johansson (Untitled Noah Baumbach Project)
Mindy Kaling (“Late Night”)
Helen Mirren (“The Good Liar”)
Saoirse Ronan (“Little Women”)
Meryl Streep (“The Laundromat”)
Charlize Theron (“Fair and Balanced”)
Jodie Turner-Smith (“Queen & Slim”)
I think I might be inclined to look at Best Actress two ways. First, the actress and the Oscar story. Next, which performance is going to stand out and for what reason?
It’s depressing that there are so far so few — hopefully in the coming months there might be more (Anne only predicts performances from films she’s already seen.) My list would probably include these:
Frontrunners:
Amy Adams, The Woman in the Window
Renee Zellweger, Judy
Meryl Streep, The Laundromat
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Then I would look closely at:
Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Alfre Woodard, Clemency
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Helen Mirren, The Good Liar
Penelope Cruz, Pain & Glory
Cate Blanchett, Where’d You Go Bernadette.
And I would wonder about:
Julianne Moore in Gloria Bell
Now we head over to AwardsWatch to see what they’re brewing up for Best Actress.
1. Cynthia Erivo — Harriet (Focus Features)
2. Saoirse Ronan — Little Women (Sony/Columbia)
3. Amy Adams — The Woman in the Window (20th Century Fox)
4. Meryl Streep — The Laundromat (Netflix)
5. Awkwafina — The Farewell (A24)
Those names they list but Anne Thompson doesn’t. This has me looking more closely and paying more attention to (sight unseen):
Frances McDormand — Nomadland (Fox Searchlight)
Lesley Manville — Normal People (Bleecker Street)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus — Downhill (Fox Searchlight)
The rest of their lineup is over here.
We don’t yet know what narratives will be in play in 2020. We have no idea where the “woke needle” will fall, how much hysteria will be whipped up, what films will be praised or panned, what scandals will erupt. All we know for sure is that the juggernaut path to victory by an actress that we’re used to seeing was upended last year. That means all bets are off, and at least for now it’s anyone’s game.
Even though I adore and worship my Queen Cate Blanchett, I cannot see her getting nominated this year. The movie looks ok and her performance good but not strong enough for an Oscar nomination. And what is going on with that Lucy and Desi pre production stuff? Is it ever gonna happen?
Streep: I think that she is going to get lots of prays for her Big Little Lies stint. Little Women and The LAundromat looks both like an ensemble focus, though Saoirse Ronan may steel the thunder here
My list for now:
Renee Zellweger – Judy
Alfre Woodard – Clemency
Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
Rosamund Pike – Radioactive
Honor Swinton Byrne – The Souvenir
Emma Thompson – Late Night
Juliette Binoche – Truth
Kristen Stewart – Against All Enemies
Bernadette is not happening
I have to say that the best performances by an actress I’ve seen this year, thus far, has been surprisingly Elizabeth McGovern in “The Chaperone” and Judi Dench in “Red Joan” – neither of whom are mentioned in any listings (oh well, I never did follow the pack). But trust me, McGovern and Dench are both excellent in quite good films and much better, I thought, than Julianne Moore in “Gloria Bell”, which really isn’t that good a movie (a tremendous downer for me).
I adore Elizabeth McGovern, I will have to make sure to watch ‘The Chaperone’ (Michael Engler, 2019) then. I wasn’t sure I should because it looked to me a bit too fluffy and Hallmark-TV-movie-like to be taken seriously.
McGovern will also be in the ‘Downton Abbey’ movie (Michael Engler, 2019) so we could be looking at two nominations (Lead and Supporting), if not at the Oscars, maybe at the Globes or somewhere else where voters like elegant ladies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tu3mP0c51hE
WoOaH
Weak year. Will definitely not top Colman winning b y any measure.
Colman wasn’t The Favourite’s Best performance. Rachel Weisz was, and she was Lead.
Close deserved it more than Colman. She was just amazing in The Wife.
The fact is that the Wife should have been released the year before which SPC could have done. She would have won over McDormand.
next
It is usually down to the narrative. Will the Oscar go to
1. the long overdue actress in the classy star vehicle (Amy Adams) ?
2. the former wunderkind turned Academy it girl playing a beloved role (Saoirse Ronan) ?
3. the one playing an icon a.k.a. the potentially epic creative comeback story (Renee Zellweger) ?
4. the highly acclaimed (and Tony, Grammy, Emmy winning) relative unknown in an epic title role (Cynthia Erivo) ?
Who knows at this point. All I know is that this early on, based on nothing but a hunch, I can only see one of these four ladies winning. And at the same time, I wouldn’t be surprised if none of them got even nominated. Oscar season and “on paper potential of unseen contenders” are fickle things. Sure, we would like to think that The Woman in the Window, Little Women, Judy and Harriet will be critical darlings and commercial hits but this early on, they can all just turn out to be quite the opposite. Like The Girl on the Train, Becoming Jane, Grace of Monaco, Winnie Mandela, respectively. All four were flashy star vehicles for excellent actresses but in the end the films around them didn’t work. Hopefully that won’t happen to the 2019 quartet above but so early on, we just can’t know what to expect, not really.
Just look at last season, around this time last year highly acclaimed previous nominees / winners like Carey Mulligan, Keira Knightley and Charlize Theron (Sundance) had already received excellent early word and once Toronto wrapped, they were joined by fellow established actresses Nicole Kidman, Viola Davis, Rosamund Pike and Julia Roberts and while nobody has seen it, everyone just assumed that Mary Queen of Scots will be a big deal in the Best Actress race, as well, based on pedigree alone. And in the end, regardless of their star power and (for some of them arguably) career-best reviews, none of them came even close to the final 5 let alone the win, not because their performances weren’t great enough, but most likely because their campaigns lacked the kind of compelling narrative Oscar voters tend to respond to, that’s how epic performances from previous nominees could have been ignored in favour of lesser performances with flashier Oscar campaign narratives. Sad but true.
The best performances last year were Rosamund Pike and Joanna Kulig. Carey Mulligan And Thomasin McKenzie deserved a nomination as much as anyone. Sounds like Adams has a meaty role. Glenn Close has 3 Tony’s and 3 Emmy’s so hopefully next time she will pick and more interesting movie. Emily Watson would deserve an Emmy for Chernobyl as could Francis Mcdormand as the voice of God in Good Omens.
Agreed on all points.
Glenn Close isn’t going down without a fight thank God. She is shooting Ron Howard’s latest with Amy Adams at the moment (Hillbilly Elegy); had already signed on for the meaty lead role of a mother taking care of her addict daughter (Four Good Days) and is scheduled to start production in a few months on that long-anticipated Sunset Boulevard film adaptation that finally has a director and a screenwriter attached, AND is in pre-production at last.
Long story short, she may not have won that damn Oscar, but all the goodwill she garnered throughout this most recent awards season, seemed to secure her roles in several rather promising projects and at the end of the day, that in itself IS a big win for any performer.
I’ve seen THE FAREWELL and there is no way in hell Awkwafina (who is amazingly talented and should have gotten a supporting nod last year for CRAZY RICH ASIANS) is getting in for this role and film. It does not play to her strengths and her natural effervescence has been tamped down to nearly nothing. Not a fan of this film.
Cynthia Erivo will get nominated for Harriet. I think that is the only slam dunk.
Jessie Buckley is poised to become an awards It Girl for her recent supporting turn in HBO’s Chernobyl and lead in the feature film Wild Rose. Just sayin’
If there is any justice Jessie Buckley will the very least get a Golden Globe nomination for Wild Rose, such a classic star-is-born turn.
Awkwafina is most definitely a contender, she’s as media savvy as they come right now, and that will help big time in an Oscar dynamic where campaigning is as crucial as ever.
Depending on how the category submissions are determined, I suspect one of the McCarthy/Haddish/Moss trio from The Kitchen is contending in Actress.
Very few of these seem exciting to me, as the acting categories once again probably won’t be able to find the actually deserving performances under all the filling that they “need to nominate”.
This performance doesn’t really stand an actual chance of being nominated but I thought I’d champion it because what else can I do: Honor Swinton Byrne gives one of the defining performances of the decade in The Souvenir. Go see the movie if you can find a screening of it.
Emma Thompson for Late Night and Mya Erskine for Tribeca selection “Plus One” which comes out June 14th.
You have Mary Kay Place on your main page list but no mention of her here?
After what happened to Close, my only criteria is that the winner isn’t another Supporting performance… Does anyone think Ron Howard’s “Hillbilly Elegy” might be ready for a Christmas release à la “The Post”?
Unless they dramatically overhaul the plot of the stage musical, Jennifer Hudson is more likely to be a supporting player than a lead.
I think Colman won because voters nowadays like to bestow Oscars to best picture nominees and this was The Favourite’s place.
In my opinion, Amy Adams’ performances are too muted to put her over the finish line. She would have to something really loud and flashy. The overdue narrative isn’t enough.
She should have been both nominated and won for Arrival
I agree with you there Pete. She was my personal choice that year.
I remain slightly confused that Arrival lost so much steam in the Oscar race.
I think Lupita is going to heavily depend, on how much Blumhouse is going to promote “Us” for Oscar consideration. It certainly has big chances, if promoted, to break into multiple categories (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Film Editing) but risk is, some consider it inferior to “Get Out” (I don’t!). The irony being, it is not the only film with the problem of risk of being considered a “repetition” of what’s awarded recently (“Rocketman” vs “Bohemian Rhapsody”, “Avengers Endgame” vs “Black Panther”).
In advance, I think it may be interesting to see a choice between Adams winning finally, and awarding Meryl a 4th one (God knows, that if an actress deserves to join Kate in that league, is her)
I’m intrigued by this list and find it fun and exciting. I have a sneaky feeling, not that that means much, but Meryl Streep might just be a double nominee this year at the Oscars… AND potentially a TRIPLE nominee at the Golden Globes.
Best Actress for “The Laundromat”
Supporting for “Little Women”
And third GG nom for her role in “Big Little Lies”…
And I agree Meryl is worthy to be in the Katharine Hepburn territory with 4 wins!
Meryl could do a movie where all she does is sit on a toilet writhing in pain from violent intestinal distress and people here would be crying for Oscar #4 for her.
The people who were clamoring for a nod for her for Mary Poppins were embarrassing.
Oddly enough, aside from KH and MS, the only other actress I could picture deserving of 4 wins… was never nominated! (but is an AMPAS member)… Maribel Verdú.
Supporting Actress, Lovers (Amantes) 1991
Lead Actress, La Buena Estrella (The Lucky Star) 1997 (ex-aequo with Joey Lauren Adams, Chasing Amy)
Lead (or Supporting!) Actress, Y tu mamá también, 2002
Supporting Actress, Pan’s Labyrinth, 2006
She was GREAT in Pan’s Labyrinth, as was Sergi Lopez. I thought they were both awards worthy.
you really need to see her in those other 3 films
Don;t know how I never managed to see Y Tu Mama Tambien, but I’ll track them all down
That sounds amazing.
The foley artists obviously would be frontrunners for Oscar as well
I’m zeroing in already on Tony Winner for Best Actress for “The Color Purple” Cythia Arrivo. She’s black and she’s British and she’s brilliant and already beloved. If the film “Harriet” is as good as it looks like it might be, Cynthia would be the first black Best Actress winner since Halle Berry. Harriet Taubman is a great, but so far, cinematically overlooked, historical figure.
I had totally forgotten about that film