Awardsdaily’s super pal, Michael Patterson, has just posted his annual predictions for what movies might show up at Telluride. The Telluride Film Fest takes place during Labor Day Weekend, at the end of August. The titles have a decent shot at landing in the Oscar race. It’s fun to imagine which movies and which movie stars might show up at the Big Show. Here is what Michael thinks so far:
Last year I landed just below my average accuracy getting five titles correct: The Other Side of the Wind, Peterloo, Cold War, The Old Man and the Gun and The Front Runner. But I also missed on Beautiful Boy, Sunset, Burning, Capernaum and the stunning miss on Barry Jenkins’ If Beale Street Could Talk.
Other films that I listed on 2018’s “just under the Ten Bets” that actually made it to The SHOW included: Boy Erased, The Eyes of Orson Welles, Girl, Shoplifters, and First Man.
Last year’s half right/half wrong moved my average over the eight years of Ten Bets to 5.6 correct picks per year.’
And so with that as a backdrop…drumroll please…here’s your first Ten Bets for TFF #46
10) The Good Liar
9) Little Women
8) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
7) Jojo Rabbit
6) Family Romance LLC
5) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
4) Lucy in the Sky
3) Varda by Agnes
2) Nomadland
1) ParasiteOther films in serious play: The Goldfinch, Untitled Noah Baumbach Project, Untitled Todd Haynes Project, Atlantics, The Climb, The Laundromat, Radioactive, Country Music, The Lighthouse, Harriet, The Truth, Synonyms, Motherless Brooklyn, Ad Astra.
I’m looking at this thinking that I’m pretty sure Untitled Noah Baumbach Project will be there, since Baumbach and Greta Gerwig are a couple and have just had their first child I’m pretty sure? It seems logical that both would show up – not just one, right?
Of all of these titles, the one I’d most be excited about would be Ad Astra. After that, if it goes, The Good Liar (yes Ian McKellen! Yes Bill Condon! Yes Helen Mirren!), and if Todd Haynes is there I will die.
Little Women seems like a strong bet for sure and honestly it looks lovely. Gerwig has had luck with Telluride in the past and will feel comfortable showing her movie there, I figure. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood might bring the delightful Tom Hanks out – which would be nice. I’m going to make sure Michael Patterson, and his lovely wife Kris, meet and have their picture taken with Tom Hanks or I will throw a fit.
Either way, off we go. Two more months.
The Goldfinch novel and trailer indicates significant character development, a wide assortment of relationships, and in touch with the zeitgeist. And the trailer catches Deakins cinematography and a strong emotional range impact. Optimistic for Elgort and SAG ensemble.
I do hope that Parasite gets an Oscar or two. Watched it at the Sydney Film Festival, best film of the year. Also, for all the hype the political commentary gets, the film is also very funny.
Why do I have a feeling that the negative reviews for Little Women are already written even before the film came out? Oscar nominated women filmmakers have gotten some of the harshest reviews for their post Oscar follow up films. Campion, Coppola, Bigelow in recent years.
Even if its shown at Telluride, I seriously doubt that such an agressive film like Synonymes, which has been accussed of antisemitism by some french critics, notably Positif’s legend Michel Ciment, has any chances to make it to the Oscar race. Furthermore, it portrays France government as an hostile institution to foreigners.
Even if the film is fascinating I can’t imagine it as a french, nor israeli, submission to the foreing language trophy. Golden Bear and end of year Cahier’s list will be its highest recognitions. Not bad, actually…
As it is the halfway point of the year, I thought doing a “best of the first half of the year” awards would be fair (I don’t live in the States and thus haven’t seen everything you have been able to see so I’ll compensate that with a few movies that haven’t been released in the States yet):
Best Picture
An Elephant Sitting Still (Winner)
High-Life
Long Day’s Journey into Night
The Souvenir
Varda par Agnès
Best Director
Bi Gan (Long Day’s Journey into Night) (Winner)
Claire Denis (High-Life)
Hu Qian (An Elephant Sitting Still)
Best Original Screenplay
An Elephant Sitting Still (Winner)
Long Day’s Journey into Night
The Souvenir
Best Adapted Screenplay
Asako I & II (Winner)
Ghost Town Anthology
Leto
Best Ensemble
Booksmart
An Elephant Sitting Still (Winner)
Us
Best Actress
Lupita Nyong’o (Us)
Honor Swinton Byrne (The Souvenir) (Winner)
Zhao Tao (Ash Is the Purest White)
Best Actor
Marcello Fonte (Dogman)
Liao Fan (Ash Is the Purest White)
Tom Mercier (Synonyms) (Winner)
Best Supporting Actor
Tom Burke (The Souvenir)
Peng Yuchang (An Elephant Sitting Still) (Winner)
Zhang Yu (An Elephant Sitting Still)
Best Supporting Actress
Juliette Binoche (High-Life)
Sairi Itô (Asako I & II)
Wang Uvin (An Elephant Sitting Still) (Winner)
Best Editing
Bait
Le livre d’image
Long Day’s Journey into Night (Winner)
Best Cinematography
Climax
High-Life
Long Day’s Journey into Night (Winner)
Best Production Design
High-Life
Long Day’s Journey into Night (Winner)
Us
Best Costume Design
Birds of Passage
High-Life (Winner)
The Souvenir
Best Original Score
High-Life
Monos
Us (Winner)
Best Visual Effects (I’ve seen only two contenders worth noting)
High-Life (Winner)
Missing Link
Best Sound Design
Bait
High-Life (Winner)
Us
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Au revoir là-haut
Birds of Passage
Us (Winner)
Awesome list, thanks for sharing!
Even if I enjoyed Long day’s journey into the night, surprisingly for me, I was kind of disappointed. I had the impression that Bi Gan showed us an edge-polished version of his own mesmerizing debut, Kaili blues. However, I agree, it’s definitely worth the watch.
My list of the first half of the year would go something like…
1. Le livre d’image
2. Pain and glory
3. Birds of passage
4. Sibyl
5. Hotel by the river
6. Living and knowing you’re alive
7. Glass
8. Parasite
9. M
10. Santiago, Italia
I want little women and the goldfinch mainly because I want to hear about them as soon as possible. Also the book the goldfinch is amazing and I don’t care what anyone says
Just saw the trailer of “The Good Liar” and the film can do extraordinarily well at Oscars, if any good. I mean EXTRAORDINARILY (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress and Screenplay)