Every year around Oscar time, my old friend David Carr (rest in peace) used to call me up and we’d have a long conversation about the Oscar race. He always used to ask me what I thought about it and what I thought about movies. He would always say to me, “yeah, but is it a MOVIE movie?” What he meant by that was the good old fashioned big Hollywood movie the studios used to provide with regularity to adult people. Big budgets, big sets, glorious vistas, big stars. A night out at the picture show. This, as opposed to the little indies that came to dominate the Oscar race in the past 10-15 years or so where festival season has reigned supreme. Telluride gets a MOVIE movie now and again, as do Venice and Toronto, but for the most part, these are festivals built for independents.
Last year, it seemed pretty clear already that the industry was ready to embrace MOVIE movies again, with their decision to go against what the critics and online hive mind were urging them to do and choosing to award movies like Green Book, Bohemian Rhapsody, and A Star Is Born. All three of those are what Carr would call MOVIE movies.
The industry’s sentiment seemed to be driven by the move to add a “popular film category” at the Oscars, which was met with so much protest you’d think the Academy just hired Donald Trump to be the next host. That got scrapped and instead voters opted for the popular movies, even if it meant enduring a wee bit of ridicule (Bohemian Rhapsody) and controversy (Green Book). But I think there could be something else going on: a pendulum shift that might be the last gasp for movies to be movies again at the theater and not so much franchises or brands or sequels or remakes – original content aimed at adults maybe?
That was made abundantly clear when Quentin Tarantino rolled out Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Had that movie come out in a different time (say, ten or fifteen years ago), it probably would not be treated as the second coming of Christ because it would have had more competition. But as it is, it’s one of the few movies to come out where serious actors aren’t dressed up as superheroes or doing motion capture or voicing an animated character (not that there’s anything wrong with that). No, Tarantino’s film dropped like a juicy T-bone steak on a desert island where the residents had been eating nothing but a lovely bunch of coconuts. A steak with big stars, real sets, actual actors, and an original story. And it was a story that didn’t necessarily reflect the utopian ideal of the modern left – the strident allegiance to not offending a single person. This movie broke some of those rules, though not enough to really make it verboten. I know my friend David Carr would have been first in line to see it, and all I would have to say to him was, it’s a MOVIE movie.
So let’s see how the year is shaping up. First thing to know is that nobody knows anything yet. We don’t know anything about anything. We are just guessing. The only two movies that have popped in any way would be Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Rocketman, with a few titles hovering around the periphery, like The Farewell and Booksmart – the former being a more serious contender and the latter being one the critics will likely carry through the season.
Our good friend Tom O’Neil has just started taking Oscar predictions at GoldDerby, and though it might seem early, remember the season has been shortened significantly by almost a month, so it all has to start earlier.
Here are the ten films I put down for Best Picture, once again, knowing absolutely nothing – just going on random thoughts about random things, like the who, the what, the where of it:
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (MOVIE movie)
The Irishman (MOVIE movie)
1917 (MOVIE movie)
Ford v Ferrari (MOVIE movie)
Marriage Story
Little Women (MOVIE movie)
Untitled Todd Haynes
The Laundromat
The Good Liar (MOVIE movie)
The Farewell
There are so many other potential titles, and we have no idea if any of these (save Tarantino’s movie) will go. It is a wide open race as we start the season.
Other titles that catch my eye right now:
Ad Astra
Jojo Rabbit
The Lighthouse
Parasite
Harriet
What I’m sensing this far out is that we’ll have a pretty good mix of big movies and small movies, movies by women, movies by people of color, and a lot of variety to go around. But I also think that there will be another shift – a shift away from hive mind policing of entertainment which, at its peak, might have ended a film like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood but won’t now. Hollywood and films live in the realm of entertainment. The pendulum had to shift away from movies being only by and about white men and it did shift. There is a much wider array of filmmakers and films than ever before. That means there is less of a need to tear down movies and instead build them up. One hopes anyway.
In the past, we looked at smaller indie movies to dominate, but now I feel like there will be a bit of pendulum shift back to major Hollywood movies. So you might ask why I have The Irishman as a MOVIE movie since it’s in the hybrid zone of Netflix. Well, that’s because Netflix has transformed itself, almost overnight, into a big studio that produces big studio pictures, along with smaller indies and television.
Telluride begins the season, right around the same time as Venice, three weeks hence.
Off-topic: the Venice schedule (so about what time we should be getting reviews):
August 28th:
The Truth (Kore-eda) (ending at 14:40 ET)
August 29th:
The Perfect Candidate (al-Mansour) (ending at 12:20 ET)
Marriage Story (Baumbach) (ending at 15:15 ET)
Ad Astra (Gray) (ending at 18:05 ET) (so is this also probably going to Telluride)
August 30th:
Madre (feature version of the Oscar nominated short) (Sorogoyen) (ending at about 13:05 ET)
J’accuse (Polanski) (ending at about 15:20 ET)
Seberg (Andrews) (no running time but should end at around 18:00 ET)
August 31st:
Ema (Larraín) (ending at about 12:30 ET)
Joker (Phillips) (ending at about 15:15 ET)
Irréversible (Noé) (new version) (ending at about 19:20 ET)
September 1st:
The New Pope (Sorrentino) (ending at about 12:30 ET)
The Laundromat (Soderbergh) (ending at about 15:05 ET)
Wasp Network (Assayas) (ending at about 18:50 ET)
September 2nd:
Martin Eden (Marcello) (ending at about 15:55 ET)
The King (Michôd) (ending at about 18:45 ET)
No. 7 Cherry Lane (Yonfan) (ending at about 13:05 ET)
September 3rd:
The Painted Bird (Marhoul) (ending at about 13:35 ET)
About Endlessness (Andersson) (ending at about 15:30 ET)
September 4th:
Babyteeth (Murphy) (ending at about 13:00 ET)
Saturday Fiction (Lou) (ending at about 15:35 ET)
September 5th:
A herdade (Guedes) (ending at about 13:30 ET)
Gloria Mundi (Guédiguian) (ending at about 15:45 ET)
September 6th:
La mafia non è più quella di una volta (Maresco) (ending at about 12:45 ET)
Waiting for the Barbarians (Guerra) (ending at about 15:20)
Thanks for calculating this. I was confused by ET at first, thinking it meant European Time, but I realise now it means Eastern Time.
Unless I’m mistaken, this means Seberg could also play at Telluride, although not on the opening day.
Yes, that would be possible in theory but Toronto just announced that it has the North American premiere of the film. But the following films should be going to Telluride as well:
The Aeronauts
Lyrebird
Waves
A Hidden Life
Verdict
Radioactive is closing night gala at TIFF. Rosamund Pike playing Marie Curie is a great chance for Awards. Aneurin Barnard as Pierre Langevin for Supporting Actor for this or go as Boris in The Goldfinch.
I wonder if Endgame is going to be one of the only films to be the #1 highest grossing of all time (alongside Jurassic Park*) and not get a Best Picture nomination.
Gone With The Wind, The Sound of Music, The Godfather, Jaws, Star Wars, E.T. The Extra Terrestrial, Titanic, and Avatar all got Best Picture Nominations, with Gone With The Wind, The Sound of Music, The Godfather, and Titanic being winners.
But in spite of Endgame being such a massive success and what Marvel has been building to for more than a decade… I’m still not sure I see it getting a Best Picture nomination. Of course, Disney could and probably will do a massive campaign for it, so I might be very wrong.
*The Birth of A Nation was the highest grossing film prior to Gone With The Wind, however due to the Oscars not existing then, I removed it from the examples list as not being relevant to my point.
Biggest winner competition was The Lion King and it flopped critically, so Disney is going to focus on Endgame, probably
Even if The Lion King had been praised, I think Disney would still prioritise Avengers over it. The cast has so many Oscar winners in it and the film is such a high-budget event film that Disney will try and get it recognised regardless of whether voters agree with that notion.
What I think is particularly notable about Avengers: Endgame being the highest-grossing film of all time is that if you look at all the other films that managed that feat in their times, they all beat the previous film by a considerable margin whereas Avengers: Endgame has barely reached that position and is barely making money anymore. If we look at it from a relative standpoint, how many percent more did the new highest-grossing film of all time make compared to the previous one (not counting re-releases, I’d argue they don’t matter for this particular Oscar conversation):
Gone with the Wind: about 113% more than Birth of a Nation
The Sound of Music: about 218% more than Gone with the Wind
The Godfather: at least about 11% more than The Sound of Music
Jaws: at least about 36% more than The Godfather
Star Wars.: at least about 39% more than Jaws
E.T.: at least about 51% more than Star Wars
Jurassic Park: at least about 38% more than E.T.
Titanic: about 102% more than Jurassic Park
Avatar: about 49% more than Titanic
Avengers: Endgame: about 0.2% more than Avatar
So we’re talking about a very different kind of “highest-grossing film of all time” than with any of the other precedents (and of course there are other things that make it decicedly different from the others but if we’re purely talking numbers, this is the clearest one)
Endgame won’t even go $10 mil. beyond Avatar’s unadjusted worldwide gross. An Avatar re-release prior to Avatar 2 would get its crown back easily.
I can already hear cries of “That’s cheating!” already. XD
Avatar deserves to take its record back. Endgame is not in the same category as the other record breakers.
In case you hadn’t noticed, all the other films were original films, not sequels to hundreds of other films. Oh, and they didn’t have in built comic book fandoms.
Well Gone With The Wind, The Godfather, Jaws, and Jurassic Park are all book adaptations, so original isn’t what I’d say. But yeah, being a franchise is a liability for Avengers’ BP ambitions.
Reading this over, I really want the Laundromaut to get nominated. What do you think the odds are? It’s been a long long time since Steven Soderbergh got nominated
My Name is Dolemite propels Eddie Murphy to the ubershock in Best Actor
I can’t help but feel strangely more excited than I usually feel for this year, all the films on offer look interesting and exciting, there is usually one that I just know I’ll dislike before I see it but these all look great. Okay cats but I’m weirdly curious and excited for it just because of how weird it looks.
I’m still yet to give any films 4/4 this year* plenty of good movies have come here but few that I would call truly great. For the record top 5 right now: Parasite, Rocketman, Us, How to Train Your Dragon, Booksmart but they are all at the point where if it’s a good year I doubt any if many will make final end of year top 10. Maybe parasite. Maybe. Here’s to hoping that it’s such a good year that these films all get dropped from my end of year best of list! Not because they are bad films but that the films coming up are even better!
* By the way I find it hard to define “this year” – because I talk online a bunch I like to try to fit my year into the Oscar calendar so I’ve come up with this method where I go if it is eligible for 2019 Oscars and it comes to New Zealand in or before 1 April 2019 then I consider it a 2018 film, so my year mostly starts in April, although there are also films like how to train your dragon that released here in January but released later in the US so want eligible for 2019 Oscars so I consider it a 2019 film. Is this a weird system? Is there a better one? I dunno it’s the best I’ve come up with…
I personally just try to look past local release dates and rely completely on the US release date. That way it feels the most consistent. As for films that come out really late locally, I generally just at some point stop putting things on the “original list” when I feel like I’ve seen all the ones I can see within a few months and declare the films on that list to be the best films of the year. After that I usually copy the “original list” into a new list that I continue to change this “updating list” forever.
I also know several people who go purely by world premiere date, but of course that means that the list is never really done and making some sort of cut-off point is impossible
Avengers: Endgame is absolutely getting nominated but it isn’t going to win.
OUATIH is triumph in that it both feels like Tarantino’s somewhat toned-down bid for a genuine “Oscar movie,” yet it still carries so much of his unique filmmaking voice.
Endgame is not getting nominated
I am unsure about it. It would be a first time that the highest worldwide box office movie of all time misses a Best Picture nomination
Jurassic Park missed the Best Picture nomination. Granted that was a hyper-competitive year in which it also had to go against another Spielberg film, but still worth noting.
I don’t think JP broke the ET record
It did, and by quite a lot. $914,691,118 for JP vs. $701,000,000 (counting reissues) for ET.
Yes on Worldwide not on Domestic. Same case as Endgame
Ah, I forgot this was such an American-centric website. Worldwide is what really matters long-term. Voters in the Oscars aren’t all American.
But eh, pissing the night away on semantics isn’t really worth it, so I’ll say this – Disney could get Avengers: Endgame a Best Picture nomination IF
A) It’s a thin year for competing films in volume – less films
B) They NAIL their For Your Consideration choices and manage to get buzz in non-technical categories other than Best Picture
C) They manage their PR very well and don’t have any scandals/dramas/twitter feuds
D) They don’t try and compete with themselves IE no Captain Marvel/Spiderman campaigns at the same time
E) They can convince voters that their film is “worthy” of BP status. Black Panther achieved that by being highlighted as progressive. Endgame needs to find an argument that even non-MCU fans could see the case for, because I suspect the Academy isn’t a MCU fan club.
Those are a lot of conditions, some of which are out of their control.
In case you have forgotten, despite the international membership of the AMPAS, it is still an all-American award
But that doesn’t work as an argument for why Avengers: Endgame would get nominated: Jurassic Park did exactly what Avengers: Endgame did (although it beat the worldwide record by a more notable margin) and it didn’t get nominated. How is that proof that Avengers: Endgame would get nominated?
Absolutely? I dunno, this year has too many films that the Academy would put over Avengers in their ballots.
I would put it at a 45% chance of Best Picture nomination. Not impossible, but more likely to not happen than to happen.
My one hope is that Parasite somehow gets a Best Picture nomination. That’s a MOVIE movie by Sasha’s definition. The sort of movie that gets massive crowd reactions.
Mmm there isn’t enough love for Parasite around here, it’s possibly the only film I’ve seen this year that I think has a shot at making my year end best of list.
I think simply that the amount of people who have seen Parasite is very small and that it will have passionate supporters once it is seen more widely (probably in similar ways to what Pain and Glory has at the moment)
Yeah, and most of the people who have seen Parasite are in Australia, France, NZ, or Asia, since the film has been distributed there in cinemas but is still going to have big screening events left in North America film festivals.
Agreed. Hoping the same for Portrait of a Lady on Fire.
I’m joining the sentiment that this year feels…odd. This year is lacking that true “Oscar” Film. Each year has at least one that screams from a mountain top: “We only made this to win awards”…and yet, that film has yet to present itself. Usually by this point, at least one film is making waves but nothing is. “A Beautiful Day…” is a year late to the party, “The Irishman” is part of Netflix (still taboo), and Tom Hooper has done everything he could with “Cats” to dismiss himself from the Oscar Table for quite some time. This sets for either for a high quality film, like “The Farewell”, or a big film from a big studio, like “Once Upon a Time…”. Either way, this year already feels better since we don’t have to talk ourselves out of Green Book winning, just for it to win in the end.
Green Book? The TIFF People’s Choice, NBR Best Film, Golden Globe Best Picture (Musical/Comedy), PGA, and Best Picture Oscar winner?
Any truth to the rumors Netflix might drop The Irishman tomorrow?! I only care about this and the new Kelly Reichardt MOVIE movie!!!!
Almost impossible. The New York Film Festival has the world premiere screening and it would be downright baffling if Netflix just were to pull the rug from under NYFF’s feet so publically. From what I’ve heard it’s coming out in theatres and Netflix in October.
(Also, random note, about people crying that Roma winning best picture would be the end of the movie theatres, if that’s the case, why is Roma the only best picture nominee that’s still playing regularly in theatres where I live without labels like “summer re-run”)
Yeah it is booked for the opening night slot for New York and for the closing night slot for London, Netflix brass can be bitchy every now and then but even they wouldn’t dare attempt such disrespect.
they’re not Beyonce, they won’t do that
But they did do a Beyonce with their Beyonce movie.
I have seen people posting their 1999 Top 10’s (whY?) anyways (fine year) here’s mine:
1. Eyes Wide Shut (Stanley Kubrick)
2. The Insider (Michael Mann)
3. The Matrix (Lana & Lilly Wachowski)
4. Time Regained (Raul Ruiz)
5. Beau Travail (Claire Denis)
6. Magnolia (Paul Thomas Anderson)
7. eXistenZ (David Cronenberg)
8. The Talented Mr. Ripley (Anthony Minghella)
9. The Straight Story (David Lynch)
10. All About My Mother (Pedro Almodovar)
Someone who agrees with me about Eyes Wide Shut! Exciting!
I finally purchased Eyes Wide Shut on blu-ray this week and watched it again last night. So damn good. Probably my favorite Kubrick film. A masterclass in mood, tone, and multilayered filmmaking. Top notch performances from Nicole and Tom, too. Happy to see there are other EWS die hards on here.
I’ve talked to reasonable people who hate it. I don’t know why? It doesn’t achieve greatness but for me it was pretty damned entertaining. It’s also my fav’
Tom Cruise performance to go along with Risky Business.
bus
By US release date:
1. Magnolia (Anderson)
2. Eyes Wide Shut (Kubrick)
3. Close-Up (Kiarostami)
4. The Lovers on the Bridge (Carax)
5. The Insider (Mann)
6. The Straight Story (Lynch)
7. Being John Malkovich (Jonze)
8. The Talented Mr. Ripley (Minghella)
9. The Iron Giant (Bird)
10. Eternity and a Day (Angelopoulos)
By worldwide premiere date:
1. Magnolia (Anderson)
2. Eyes Wide Shut (Kubrick)
3. The Insider (Mann)
4. The Straight Story (Lynch)
5. Being John Malkovich (Jonze)
6. The Talented Mr. Ripley (Minghella)
7. The Iron Giant (Bird)
8. All About My Mother (Almodóvar)
9. Topsy-Turvy (Leigh)
10. The Virgin Suicides (Coppola)
1. The Insider (Michael Mann)
2. Magnolia (Paul Thomas Anderson)
3. Election (Alexander Payne)
4. American Beauty (Sam Mendes)
5. The Matrix (The Wachowskis)
6. Fight Club (David Fincher)
7. Toy Story 2 (John Lasseter)
8. The Iron Giant (Brad Bird)
9. Sleepy Hollow (Tim Burton)
10. Office Space (Mike Judge)
Eyes Wide Shut, Blair Witch Project, and Talented Mr. Ripley just miss out.
1. Being John Malkovich
2. Election
3. Fight Club
4. The Straight Story
5. The Blair Witch Project
6. The Iron Giant
7. Three Kings
8. All About My Mother
9. The Insider
10. Magnolia
I recall I loved American Beauty the first time I watched it, but it felt dated just a few years later. I expect it will work even less well now.
1. The straight story (David Lynch)
2. Eyes wide shut (Stanley Kubrick)
3. All about my mother (Pedro Almodóvar)
4. Drop dead, gorgeous (Michael Patrick Jann) (OH, SHUT UP!)
5. American beauty (Sam Mendes)
6. Ghost dog (Jim Jarmusch)
7. Man on the moon (Milos Forman)
8. The little girl who sold the sun (Djibril Diop Mambety)
9. Toy story 2 (John Lasseter et al)
10. Being John Malkovich (Spike Jonze)
Great list, as always. Still can’t embrace Eyes Wide Shut, unfortunately (as a huge Kubrick fan).
Nice nice nice.
Allow me to add an illustration? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4cd749c5c00457b17ed325972a29e2b2ce33b0b9cde9e6a075eac6809fbbd640.jpg
1. Fight Club
2. The Blair Witch Project
3. The Matrix
4. The Green Mile
5. Magnolia
6. The Straight Story
7. Being John Malkovich
8. Eyes Wide Shut
9. All about my mother
10. The Iron Giant
(The Green Mile doesn’t get all the attention and praise it should… it is actually better than The Shawshank Redemption which was excellent but a pastiche of every single prison drama cliche ever put to screen, bloating a short novel into a 2 hours plus film)
Also I’m extremely belated in this but I just wanted to put it out there with this community as it starts to reawaken for the season … I *finally* watched The Favourite a few weeks ago (last year was my worst oscar-watching year since I started 11 years ago, for different reasons) and while I was already upset that Green Book won best pic, I’m even more devastated now. I thought The Favourite was a masterpiece and one of the funniest movies I’ve seen in a long while. Coleman deserved the Oscar although part of me almost wishes that all three actresses had won Best Actress trophies in a split/tie
I really want Lulu Wang to get a Best Director nomination.
Ehh…I’d say a Best Original Screenplay nom is her reward.
This is how I see the already reviewed / released players right now :
1. Once Upon a Time – Across the board nominations, frontrunner in supporting actor maybe even in screenplay if the Academy really goes for it which it might, after all it IS a love letter to Hollywood.
2. The Farewell – Its critical scores and BO quickly catapulted it into “the little film that could” territory, I think it has a decent shot at nods in picture, script, actress, maybe even director and supporting actress.
3. Rocketman – It did rather well with both critics and audiences but didn’t really pop on either front. If Egerton opts to campaign, he could still secure a nomination but as far as main categories go, I think that one acting category is its best shot.
4. Us – As unfair as it is, the Get Out comparisons are inevitable and compared to that, Us is already not aging well. It did excellent Box Office (not much staying power though) but didn’t pierce the zeitgeist nearly as much as Get Out did and while that shouldn’t be a factor, it clearly will be. Lupita Nyong’O did deliver a brilliant performance though that should be remembered or the very least in consideration at the end of the year.
5. Pain and Glory – Almodovar with his muses = foreign language film, script, acting nominations are most definitely in play.
———-
From the unseen bunch I expect Little Women, The Irishman, 1917, Joker, Ad Astra to deliver with potential shockers like Jojo Rabbit, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Last Christmas, Rhythm Section still in the mix. Taika Waititi, Marielle Heller, Paul Feig and Reed Morano shouldn’t be underestimated, their track records are impressive af and this time around they can all rely on big studio support and Oscar-friendly year-end release dates … and even if their respective films end up being too genre for the Academy, high quality is nonetheless still expected at this point.
I know Little Women is supposed to be about little women but Chalamet looks gorgeous in that still so I hope he’s not wasted!!!!
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/98ac1790ed62c4d485b2fe24f823d89a6f394a249ffbc42efea0b6bc25bdd2f5.jpg
I doubt he will be wasted, Gerwig cast proper hearthrobs for all three love interest roles (Timothee Chalamet, James Norton, Louis Garrel) so I’m guessing she is going for swoonworthy romances this time around. Should work better, too, 22-year old Winona Ryder falling head over heels for 44-year old Gabriel Byrne was probably the biggest issue I had with the previous movie adaptation, he legit looked like he could have been his father, they even looked similar. Saoirse Ronan fancying Garrel on the other hand, now that I can believe.
I hope he is given a character arc, but I fear only the little women will get those, and he will be treated simply as a pretty face. Too bad.
While Parasyte won Cannes, I keep telling you, the Cannes film that might really, really translate into Oscar Best Picture (QT aside) is Almodovar’s Pain and Glory. It is really, really likely that it can manage noms for acting (1 to 3, but Banderas seems even a viable winner), Director, Original Screenplay, Score, Cinematography… we are talking almost Roma’s numbers if promotion works. Parasyte seems that MAYBE can get an Original Screenplay nom, along with International Film. Pain and Glory has the bigger across the board appeal and also, it is a film mostly about movies…
Maybe it will happen as back in 2002’s race with Talk to Her… everyone dismissing it, till it finally opened in the USA and it became a huge contender that year (won Original Screenplay and got nominated for Director… and probably came close in plenty of other categories, Picture, Cinematography, Score, maybe acting for Javier Cámara, but it was a really strong year in films so couldn’t break into the top 5, but with an expanded field, I doubt it would have missed a Best Picture nomination).
2002
Nominees
Chicago (won)
The Pianist
Gangs of New York
The Hours
Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
if 6 – Adaptation (3 acting noms, Screenplay)
if 7 – Talk to Her (Director, Screenplay)
if 8 – Frida (biopic, actress nominee, across the board guild appeal)
if 9 – Far from Heaven (actress,writing)
if 10 – tricky… I think Bowling for Columbine could have been nominated. About Schmidt probably was there, too. Maybe Road to Perdition…
Pain and Glory is brilliant. Best Almodovar in years. All the actors are terrific.
Indeed. If I had to bet on how Oscar noms may go on Parasite vs Pain and Glory…
Picture – Pain and Glory, due to the star power of Banderas, Cruz and Almodovar
Director – tricky but I still give the edge to Pedro. But could be either of them, or none, but not both
Acting – Pain and Glory may get up to 3 acting noms without huge shock by anyone
Screenplay – BOTH can get nominated. I am going to give the edge to Parasite here
Technicals – Score, cinematography, seem Pain and Glory territory. Editing too
International Film – Parasite. I really doubt Spain submits Pain and Glory instead of the latest Amenabar.
For me – the Farewell and Last Black Man in San Francisco. IMO the Farewell is the sleeper. Anywho, I’m back to seeing movie screenings, just saw the Kitchen. Don’t waste your $$ ticket. Is Melissa McCarthy & Tiffany Haddish desperate for roles? I didn’t know how to take that movie. Was it a dramedy or a drama? Poorly written.
Good to know about The Kitchen. I never thought it looked good but didn’t expect the MC score to be so low.
I adored the story for The Farewell when I first heard it on This American Life years ago. I remember thinking at the time that it would make an incredible movie – can’t wait to see it
Any Best Supporting Actor category prediction that doesn’t include both Jonathan Majors (The Last Black Man in San Francisco) and Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood) is a joke.
Majors is amazing in that movie. He and Pitt are absolutely the top two supporting actor picks on my board
And while Jimmie Fails doesn’t give the greatest male lead performance ever, he’ll get his share of recognition via his “Story by” co-credit if The Last Black Man in San Francisco gets Best Original Screenplay nominations.
Some thoughts on Once Upon A Time…In Hollywood:
Overall, I liked it, but didn’t love it. It’s middle of the road QT for me. I absolutely loved Brad Pitt, best I’ve seen from him in years; it was a very natural/”lived in” performance. I’d say he’s the frontrunner in Supporting. I also loved Leo, he delivered a convincing, funny, and heartfelt performance. Production design and costume design were off the charts good. I thought the writing was pretty good, except for the dense exposition at times. The transition between acts felt clunky. The film was a little too self-indulgent for my tastes. This is actually a criticism I have of the last few QT films, they’re a little bloated and they’re missing the keen precision of Sally Menke. With that said, the film looks gorgeous, as is to be expected with Robert Richardson.
Anyway, I enjoyed it, but didn’t love it like some do. If I had a greater knowledge of 60’s TV, advertising, and cinema, I’d probably enjoy it even more. I’d say this is the frontrunner for Best Picture at the moment. It’s a lock for at least 8 nominations (Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actor, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design), and will likely be nominated for Editing (though I don’t think it deserves it). Makeup/Hair and the Sound categories are also possibilities, though unlikely. I agree with Sasha’s assessment that AMPAS is swinging back toward “MOVIE movies”, and this one fits the bill. At this point I’d be surprised if this DIDN’T win Best Picture. It’s exactly what they’re looking for.
As much as I hate to say it, I agree, there was some bloat. I was able to go along with those moments and mostly enjoy and appreciate them, but I couldn’t stop myself from self-consciously thinking at many points (obviously, the monologues/dialogues) throughout the first two hours that it was really …. long. Like, I got it, I can see the artistry behind some of those moments, but there were just a few scenes which were just a few minutes too long for me (the exception being the very long Spahn Ranch scene, which while very very long, I thought was brilliant in part because of its length).
That being said, I actually really did love the movie as a whole and loved watching it and loved so much of what Tarantino had to say about Hollywood at the time and the themes he was playing around with, despite a few mild reservations about issues such as, yes, its use of violence, and very, very mild ambivalence about the Bruce Lee scene (I know that by stating this I’m casting myself as a dreaded “hive mind” boogeyman on this site, but I’ll deal with it just like I dealt with Three Billboards … the difference being I actually hated Three Billboards and loved Once Upon A Time). As far as nominations go, I think it’s worthy across the board, I think it’s Di Caprio’s best performance to date, just a tiny notch above Wolf of Wall Street, and even wish Robbie (or the Spahn Ranch girl) had just a few more minutes of screen time, since they would have been very worthy of nominations (although I also understand from an artistic and thematic point of view why Robbie’s role was kept so short, so I’m conflicted there).
I love it so much and would be so happy if it won. Therefore, it won’t. You will see in 6 months that I am correct. 🙂 Movies I like never win, even when they seem to be obvious winners in the early going. (Lincoln, Star is Born, Boyhood among others) I’m trying to think if I would rather QT win in director or screenplay if I had the choice. I don’t know if what made it so special to me is a writing or a directorial achievement. Certainly, I want Pitt to win and Margot at least to be nominated, though I know that she definitely may not.
On a side note, I finally saw Pulp Fiction and really liked it.
Once Upon a Time is worthy of best picture. It celebrates Quentin’s tendencies without indulging them as some of his more recent films have. This go-round, the film services the plot and it’s a glorious showcase of LA In the late sixties. And Quentin is a true Hollywood film director with a story to tell that I have never seen before. Love.
I’d say there’s still quite a few indulgences, but agree with your overall assessment
Off Topic…
AD friends, I need your help! I am trying to catch up on films that I missed in the first part of the decade in order to make an educated “decade top ten” when the time comes at the end of the year. I missed most films from 2012, 2011, and some from 2010 (mostly due to end of college craziness and transitioning into independent adulthood). I need to prioritize which films to watch from those years. Below is a list of films I’ve seen from those respective years. Would you all be so kind as to chime in with your top 3-5 recommendations for each year that I have not seen? Thanks!
2012 SEEN:
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
Argo
Prometheus
Beasts of the Southern Wild
2011 SEEN:
The Tree of Life
Melancholia
A Separation
Hugo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Moneyball
Midnight in Paris
2010 SEEN:
Toy Story 3
The Social Network
Inception
Black Swan
Winter’s Bone
Exit Through The Giftshop
The Fighter
True Grit
The King’s Speech
Animal Kingdom
The Kids Are All Right
127 Hours
Shutter Island
The Illusionist
Just watch all the Marvel movies and you’ll catch up. They’re the only movies that matter.
From a business standpoint, I guess? :b
lol
I’ve seen one MCU movie, and that was Black Panther. I’ll pass on the rest.
The Skin I live In, is one of Almodovar’s masterpieces… and Banderas is my pick for Best Lead Actor on 2011. Almodovar’s horror film. Yes, you read right. It is an horror film by Almodovar and it is FAN-TAS-TIC with one of the most thought-provoking twists in film history.
You saw Tree Of Life, so you’ve seen the best. No need to bother with sloppy seconds,
I’ll try to mostly mention some of the less obvious ones:
2010:
Dogtooth
Fish Tank
Somewhere
Another Year
Mother
2011:
Certified Copy
Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Pina
PariahTomboy (just watched it for the first time a few hours ago, so I have to change this. An amazing little film)
2012:
Holy Motors
The Turin Horse
Goodbye First Love
Wuthering Heights
It’s Such a Beautiful Day
I actually own It’s Such A Beautiful Day; I forgot that was 2012. Definitely high on my list for that year.
Thanks for the other recommendations!
More mainstream ones that haven’t been mentioned:
2012: 1) Zero Dark Thirty, 2) The Master, 3) The Perks of Being a Wallflower, 4) Silver Linings Playbook, 5) Skyfall (a cut above other Bonds, especially for Judi Dench fans)
2011: 1) The Artist (how could anyone miss that? It’ll be interesting if it feels gimmicky today.)
2) Bridesmaids, 3) The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, 4) The Descendants, 5) Rango
2010: all the best films have already been mentioned, so I’m forced to delve into kids’ movies here:
1) Blue Valentine, 2) How to Train your Dragon, 3) Tangled, 4) Despicable Me, 5) Easy A
Quite a fan of Wolf Children from 2012. The rest I would say have been recommended by others.
Great project!
For 2010 I would suggest checking out:
Beginners
Another Year
Blue Valentine
Scott Pilgrim vs. The World
2011:
Shame
Pariah
We Need to Talk About Kevin
Young Adult
Bridesmaids
2012:
The Act of Killing
Frances Ha
Stories We Tell
Amour
Zero Dark Thirty
Good luck!
Moonrise Kingdom (2012)
Bridesmaids (2011)
Winnie the Pooh (2011)
Easy A (2010)
Scott Pilgrim vs. The World (2010)
I am sharing my picks from March 2019 – to see how wrong I already am:
BEST PICTURE
The Irishman (I think this will hold strong)
Harriet (perhaps….)
Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (who knows, but I still see it strong)
Once Upon A Time in Hollywood (pretty sure this will stay)
Little Women (unknown but I am thinking this won’t make it this high)
The Goldfinch (who knows, but I have a good feeling)
The Laundromat (I think this could end up here)
Untitled Roger Ailes (unknown)
Clemency (unknown, and honestly can’t even remember what this is)
The Kitchen (looking like a no – but I do wanna see it)
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo – Harriet (I think this will make it)
Alfre Woodard – Clemency (Ah yes, well I like her a lot. Let’s see)
Renee Zelwegger – Judy (Not a fan of hers and a huge fan of Judy’s – if its decent though she’s in)
Meryl Streep – The Laundromat (I mean … its Meryl)
Natalie Portman – Lucy in the Sky (unknown)
BEST ACTOR
Tom Hanks – Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood (I think he is in)
Robert DeNiro – The Irishman (100% think he’s here too)
John Lithgow – Roger Ailes (Unknown)
Ansel Egort – Goldfinch (Unknown)
Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon A Time in Hollywood (Would put him higher now honestly)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Margot Robbie – Once Upon A Time in Hollywood (Well, this has fallen out)
Octavia Spencer – Luce (I could see another win from the buzz)
Charlize Theron – Roger Ailes Untitled (I want to see her back at Oscars, but unknown)
Nicole Kidman – Goldfinch (Everyone loves Nicole – lets see how big the role is)
Annette Benning – The Report (She needs one dammit)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Joe Peschi – The Irishman (I want another Joe win SO BAD)
Al Pacino – The Irishman (Unsure who will get the most buzz Al or Joe .. or both)
Willam DaFoe – The Last thing He Wanted (I just think he is overdue)
Leslie Odom Jr – Harriett (This was a longshot guess)
Brad Pitt – Once Upon A Time in Hollywood (honestly right now would have him at #1)
BEST DIRECTOR
Martin Scorcese – The Irishman (a given)
Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon A Time in Hollywood (an almost given)
Marielle Heller – Beautiful Day In the Neighborhood (I am predicting this will do well)
Greta Gerwig – Little Women (I think this has fallen out)
Dee Rees – The Last Thing He Wanted (unknown but I want 3 women in)
The last thing he wanted isn’t happening
Not this year. Netflix has already showed their hand. The Laundromat, Marriage Story, The Irishman and Dolemite is My Name are hitting festivals. The King at some point too.
And also The Two Popes, and Uncut Gems, which is A24 in the States but Netflix internationally.
Sasha should be invited to join the Academy.
Public Relations branch?
Pain and Glory is a MOVIE movie in my opinion
God people really love that movie around here, almost to the point in which I’m starting to hate it on principle because I’m sick of hearing about it (no I haven’t seen it and won’t for quite some time because it’s not coming to the New Zealand film festival). Sorry it’s probably not entirely your fault it’s just almost every article I scroll down and read the comments and it’s one of the first things I see…
Don’t give it any thought or regard until you do see it via your own reasonable means. That’s what I do for any new release I haven’t seen. Accept that it’s out of your control that certain awards contenders never come around your neck of the woods.
I saw Pain and Glory, opening day. I am spanish. I saw it again, when it also opened on Netflix Spain, one month ago
Wait, are Oscar eligible films allowed to go to streaming outside of the US before their US premiere?
From the Oscar eligibility rules:
“Films that, in any version, receive their first public exhibition or distribution in any manner other than as a theatrical motion picture release will not be eligible for Academy Awards in any category.
Nontheatrical public exhibition or distribution includes but is not limited to:
• Broadcast and cable television
• PPV/VOD
• DVD distribution
• Inflight airline distribution
• Internet transmission
Motion pictures released in such nontheatrical media on or after the first day of their Los Angeles County theatrical qualifying run remain eligible. Also, ten minutes or ten percent of the running time of a film, whichever is shorter, may be shown in a nontheatrical medium prior to the film’s qualifying run. (See also Paragraph 9 below.)”
It was released in cinemas first, and after, Cannes, and after, Netflix Spain. So it qualifies as it won`t open in Netflix USA before being released in theaters for Oscar qualification… SPC and Almodovar sure want those noms.
It may get some of those, but Parasite is WINNING International Film -category.
wait to see it… you will understand the love, then. It is better than Roma… and it feels way more honest. And it is really more complex and multilayered.
See, “better than Roma” is the kind of thought/expectation with which you do not want to go into a new release.
I openly talked about how I thought Roma was dishonest filmmaking back then. Technically a masterpiece, conceptually questionable
No flipes tanto. International film and best actor are the only high hopes for Pain and glory. Your ‘campaing’ with this movie is going too much!. Y a mi me encanta la pelicula. One of the best films of Almodóvar but 6 or 7 nominations seems unreal for me. Keep your feet on the ground.
Let’s go one by one.
Banderas won Cannes. 1
Foreign Film if submitted 2
Original Screenplay is a strong contender 3
Original Score, Iglesias is a previous nominee, 4
Almond for Director, almost always there is the arthouse nominee, 5
Cruz for Supporting, previously won, 6
Cinematography… the use of reds and whites…7
Minor chance also for a 3rd acting nom for Asier, he surprised me enormously and has the movie monologue. 8
8 serious chances for a non. No, no estoy flipando. I have been following the Oscars races for long enough to remember SPC plays the game and knows Almodovar is in Hollywood considered on the same league of Bergman, Fellini, Kurosawa or Truffaut… one of “them”. It is a matter of time, an Almodovar film earns 4 or more noms, probably including Best Picture
It already feels like an odd season, with no obvious OSCAR films or front runners in sight.
It already feels like an odd season, with no obvious OSCAR films or front runners in sight.
^^ This. I can count on one hand the number of movies I’ve seen this year, which is rare. Nothing seems interesting.