Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is still the film to beat for Best Picture, at least right now, after the Telluride Film Festival came to a close this past weekend. That’s because the movies that did well here haven’t yet had to run the gauntlet. Until they do, we can only guess what might and what might not go all the way. There are several films that look like strong bets, and oddly enough a theme seems to have emerged — a pairing of two strong actors leading in the same film, making everyone wonder how they’ll divvy things up for the categories.
There are still so many actors heading for the Best Actor race that the best way to wade through them is to think about Best Picture prospects. The two often go hand in hand, as we’ve figured out over the years. Most of the time, three to five contenders in Best Actor are featured in Best Picture nominees, far more than Best Actress contenders have a chance to be. Best Actor glory often leads a movie to Best Picture victory, and in a year like this one, where a few notable films seem to have two men with leading roles and not one, it’s going to be tricky figuring out who will go where.
There’s Brad Pitt and Leonardo DiCaprio in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Clearly, DiCaprio is the lead. But one could argue so is Brad Pitt. More likely, Pitt will go into supporting, ensuring two nominations that don’t cancel each out (and thus, potentially two wins) instead of one.
There’s Matt Damon and Christian Bale in Ford v Ferrari. Bale is clearly the lead, as the film is really about him and the story follows his personal life, not Damon’s. But Damon has a big share of the story and would be otherwise considered lead if it weren’t for Bale. Tracy Letts is the more classic supporting actor, but if Damon doesn’t go supporting it’ll be hard to imagine both actors going in for lead.
Then we have Jonathan Pryce and Anthony Hopkins in The Two Popes. Pryce is clearly the lead but Hopkins would be the lead if it weren’t for Pryce. Hopkins will likely go supporting, and if supporting is Hopkins, Damon, and Pitt — well that’s almost like a second leading actor category.
Two actors vying for the lead prize? That sort of of thing hasn’t happened since Tom Hulce and F. Murray Abraham tried it Amadeus in 1984, 25 years ago. It was a common occurrence in the 1970s: Dustin Hoffman and Jon Voight in Midnight Cowboy, William Holden and Peter Finch in Network, Michael Caine and Laurence Olivier in Sleuth. Further back, Richard Burton and Peter O’Toole both rightfully went for lead in Beckett — both went home Oscar-less, being defeated by Rex Harrison for My Fair Lady. There are other instances in Oscar history — 12 times altogether — but you get the point. Nominating two actors in the lead category used to happen a lot, and then it stopped happening, for the past quarter century.
Both Ford v Ferrari and The Two Popes seem like strong bets for Best Picture heading out of Telluride. Both are crowd-pleasers that will each have their share of audience demographics. Ford v Ferrari seems like the more general audience favorite, but I can promise you by the end of the year, you will hear people ask, “Have you seen The Two Popes?”
If the Oscar race revolved around just these three movies, you would have enough big stars to bring in an audience on Oscar night. Just Brad Pitt and Leonardo DiCaprio could do that. But add in Anthony Hopkins and Christian Bale and Jonathan Pryce — well, you definitely have the makings of a must-watch Oscar night, given what we know about why people watch the Oscars.
The other films that played at Telluride that seem like strong bets for Best Picture are more ensemble pieces, but that means they are good bets for the SAG ensemble award. Remember, where the Academy is concerned, actors rule. They don’t rule the Producers Guild, they don’t rule the Directors Guild, but their share of the vote at the Oscars is over twice the second largest voting group. So, when you think about Best Picture, always remember the actors.
Marriage Story is driven mostly by the writing (Noah Baumbach) and the acting. It not only seems poised, potentially, for earning nominations in all four acting categories — Adam Driver in a career-best performance, Scarlett Johansson, Alan Alda (or Ray Liotta), and Laura Dern — but it also seems like a sure bet for the SAG ensemble nomination. Since it is 100% an auteur’s piece, Baumbach will also have to be nominated as a writer and a director.
Waves is another ensemble piece and is also an auteur’s piece by Trey Edward Shults, like Marriage Story. The Two Popes and Ford v Ferrari aren’t. They’re collaborative, with a different writer and director. Waves is, as such, the only diverse cast — mostly black actors led by Sterling K. Brown, Renée Elise Goldsberry, Kelvin Harrison Jr, and Taylor Russell, with Lucas Hedges in a pretty great supporting turn. This is absolutely a strong SAG ensemble contender, as well as a Best Picture contender (depending on how they push it).
Motherless Brooklyn is another strong ensemble contender and could be called an auteur’s piece: adapted by, directed by, and starring Edward Norton. It also looks like it could be headed for a SAG ensemble nom, with Alec Baldwin, Cherry Jones, Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Fisher Stevens, Leslie Mann, and Bobby Cannavale. Reviews have been mixed on the film, but actors might respond well to it.
Parasite played at Cannes (won the Palme d’or), is also a strong ensemble piece, and is easily one of the best films of the year. It, too, played at Telluride and has a shot at the top nominations for Picture, Director, and Screenplay (at the very least), maybe the actors for ensemble too: Kang-ho Song (dad 1), Hye-jin Jang (housekeeper), Yeo-Jeong Jo (mother 2), Woo-Sik Choi (brother 1, also in Okja), So-dam Park (sister 1). Ji-so Jung (sister 2). Parasite is so good that people at Telluride couldn’t stop talking about it even though it had already played in Cannes.
The strongest singular performances that came out of Telluride start with Renee Zellweger as Judy, who is now the high water mark all others must surpass. Adam Driver made an impression with both The Report and, of course, Marriage Story. Adam Sandler was highly praised for his work in Uncut Gems. Felicity Jones and Eddie Redmayne were very good in The Aeronauts.
The Venice Film Fest also seems to have launched a few contenders, and, of course, Joaquin Phoenix in Joker is at the top of that list (at least right now), and Brad Pitt is up again for lead in Ad Astra.
The buzz from Telluride will be wiped clean when Toronto starts and a whole new slew of movies jumps in and, along with it, a whole new series of reactions. Then it’s on to New York where at last The Irishman is seen. That also seems like it COULD be a strong ensemble contender.
Right now it feels a little like this:
The Frontrunners of the films that have been seen:
Best Picture
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Marriage Story
The Two Popes
Ford v Ferrari
Parasite
Waves
Joker
A Hidden Life
Motherless Brooklyn
Best Actor
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Brad Pitt, Ad Astra
Best Actress
Renee Zellweger, Judy
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts
Director
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Trey Edwards Shults, Waves
James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari
Todd Philips, Joker
Supporting Actor
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Sterling K. Brown, Kelvin Harrison, Jr., Waves
Matt Damon, Tracy Letts, Ford v Ferrari
Alan Alda, Ray Liotta, Marriage Story
Supporting Actress
Laura Dern, Julie Hagerty, Marriage Story
Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Motherless Brooklyn
Renée Elise Goldsberry, Taylor Russell, Waves
Annette Bening, The Report
This is but a rough sketch of everything that’s coming next.
Well…it will be interesting to see how these comments from ScarJo about Woody Allen go over. A possible double nominee and now who knows…
I suspect many in the Academy might actually agree with her. The accusations were completely public for a long time and the Academy didn’t seem to care, they seemed to love him at the Oscars. Now sure, recently public opinion turned more against him, but it’s not like there were any substantially new allegations, right? If they didn’t have trouble voting for him earlier, why would they “punish” Johansson for saying what she said?
I’m pretty sure that some pundits think that Gerwig and Chalamet anti-Woody comments cost them their wins. I don’t think that Gerwig was ever poised to win and Chalamet was a runner-up but Churchill was going to win since the role was announced. pretty much like Lincoln. So that sounds like blaming Norbit on Murphy snub. Unsubstantial.
I also don’t think that NGate sunk Viggo’s win either. They loved Freddie Mercury and wanted to award him. Viggo wouldn’t win either way. or anyone for the matter.
So likely no impact on Scarlett especially this early.
I agree. They also tried to resurrect the issue during yhe year of Blanchett for Blue Jasmine. But despite that, the film still got 3 nods including Original Screenplay for Allen. I also thought the film would have made it in BP if it were a 10 nominees.
What’s interesting is that the Academy is willing to give credit to Allen if his film deserves it even if he couldn’t care less about them and the awards.
Off topic but how about that cast for del Toro’s Nightmare Alley?! Wowzers.
Bradley Cooper
Cate Blanchett
Rooney Mara
Willem Dafoe
Michael Shannon
Toni Collette
Richard Jenkins
What are the chances of Netflix’s The King, starring Academy Award Nominee Timmé Chalamet in the titular role?
Personally, I’d say
Chalamet: possible
Film: not really
Seconded. But given how Best Actor heavy this year’s contenders seem to be, it could be very hard for Chalamet in a lukewarmly received film.
It wouldn’t be that shocking if Timmy got nominated at the Globes.
I say Timmy will have to wait for Dune next year assuming his character isn’t a cipher like in the book who feels like 3 different characters in different stages in the story without an organic transition.
I saw the movie in Venice, Timothée gives a good performance but nothing amazing (and some of his looks and glazes and expressions reminded me a bit too much of CMBYN’s Elio). IMHO the mvp here is Pattinson, who steals the scene and is very convincing
The only Oscar nom I can envision now is for the Edgerton-Michod script. Most reviewers have admired the balance in the writing between roughly medieval language and some more modern emotions, including anti-war sentiments. I think the Academy’s screenwriters’ branch could be impressed with Shakespeare and other sources being artfully blended like that. Right now I can’t foresee any other Oscar noms for the movie. That could change once I get a look at it.
Brad… https://media3.giphy.com/media/R57wFjQdyDaBq/giphy.gif
The war between Parasite and Pain & Glory is going to be really, really, interesting this year
Picture – Parasite has the lead so far, but there’s the chance for some groundbreaking 2 foreign language films nominated.
Director – I still think Almodovar is on the lead here, and there will be only one of them nominated
Actor – Banderas, no brainer
Actress – none
Supporting Actor – outside shot if promoted, for Asier Etxeandía thanks to that monologue
Supporting Actress – Penélope Cruz is a longshot right now, but may be in conversation
Original Screenplay – I think both films are getting nominated here.
Score – Pain & Glory is a likely nominee
Cinematography – I can see Pain & Glory nominated but it is not a frontrunner
Production Design – Pain & Glory is a longshot, but if they go for subtle and naturalistic, the cave would be a lock of minimalist, naturalist design
Film Editing – Pain & Glory has a non linear storytelling that gives it advantage… haven’t seen Parasite yet
International Film – Parasite has the lead, Pain & Glory may not be even submitted.
I have a serious dilemma concerning International Film I’d like to share.
How crazy would it be betting on Portrait of a lady on fire, if it’s finally France’s submission, and even Atlantiques as possible surprise winners? Both are directed by women, both have an almost exclusive female cast, both focus on a strong social subject. Wouldn’t all that play on their favour now the academy has finally opened to diversity?
I mean, Parasite, as wonderful as it is, it’s a very cruel film loaded with dark humour at its finest. Pain & glory, a true masterpiece, has a very peculiar structure with some explicit scenes.
Also, if Parasite or Pain & Glory finally get more nominations, Could an Amelie vs. No man’s land or Pan’s labyrinth vs The lives of others scenario happen again?
To the last question, I really doubt that extreme situations like those will happen anymore now that everyone can vote for this award
Before Telluride I was totally seeing portrait of a lady on fire happening for the win (I like it marginally more than parasite but they are both in my top 3 of the year so far ) but after telluride it’s clear that the buzzy foreign film is parasite – considering both of them and pain and glory all played telluride and only parasite is really being talked about. This all assumes they all make it through the shortlist process which can throw curveballs.
I’d say:
Picture: Parasite by a considerable margin
Director: definitely Parasite
Screenplay: Pain & Glory would be a possibility if it was a really weak year (as in 2016-level weak year) in this category but I don’t think it’s going to be (at least so far stronger possibilities include Marriage Story, Hollywood, The Report, Waves, Ford v Ferrari), Parasite seems like a good possibility
Actor: Banderas
Techs: I don’t necessarily think either’s going to get any nominations as often with these kinds of films unless someone is hyped up immediately, starting that conversation is going to be extremely difficult
International Film: if Parasite gets a best picture nomination, I think it’s going to win here, otherwise Pain & Glory
Yeah, parasite is poised for Picture and Director. Director branch loves to nominate foreign talent.
Painted Bird is now a favorite for foreign language category
I would have said that before the reviews came out but it seems extremely divisive (The Guardian did give it 5 stars but some reactions have been strongly against that movie, and it for example fared really poorly at the Italian critics’ poll) and above all, it’s supposedly incredibly brutal, which is not something that I think Academy members will go for easily if there are other options.
At my surprise, Almodovar has been selected over Amenabar
ALFRE WOODARD. She’ll be nominated for sure, even win.
Anyone that can kick Erivo out of the line-up is welcome as far as I’m concerned.
Stray thoughts:
There is some contention around Bale it seems. Sasha is very sure he is the lead of Ford v Ferrari but there are others (Scott Feinberg for example) who are arguing that he should be pushed supporting. It’ll be interesting to see where that ends up.
I don’t see Meryl for the Laundromat – are we assuming that isn’t happening or is it an oversight? Its a legitimate question because it has been getting reasonably unfavourable reviews but they have been positive about her so maybe she can overcome it? I dunno.
I am interested to see whether Sasha has seen the Farewell and if so what she thinks about that? It is just about to release here so I am excited for that. It looks fantastic based on the trailer and the reactions its gotten.
So now that we are getting well through the list of possible films I’m just paving out the rest of the season so as I see it we have:
Toronto – A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood, Just Mercy, Harriet, Jojo Rabbit, Dolemite, David Copperfield, Radioactive, The Goldfinch, Knives Out, Lucy in the Sky
Am I missing any major ones that haven’t been seen yet? I feel like some that I have included are pretty questionable as contenders as it is.
New York – The Irishman
Others coming later – Dark Waters, 1917, Little Women, The Good Liar, Bombshell, Cats
AFI-Fest is also around with premiere of Queen and Slim and could possibly include another premiere or 2 (Dark Waters seems well timed for that for example) – it can be a good launching pad a la The Big Short or American Sniper but can be hit and miss. Maybe Little Women shows up here? It feels like the sort of film that should launch off a festival but apparently they passed on New York so maybe they do just want to skip the festivals. 1917 feels like it is aiming to Revenant its way in.
Is there anything major that hasn’t been seen that I am missing (I have intentionally skipped foreign films and documentaries because that would then make the list too long and I don’t think there is anything to come that could make best picture).
Cats?! Lol ….
I’m curious about Timothée in The King as well, along with Meryl.
Great summary. I can’t think of any other movie.
Ahhh yes I thought I’d included it. I edited my post. Cheers!
And yeah Timothee is a very similar case to Meryl where the film doesn’t have the best reviews but everyone is praising his performance… Still I wonder whether Netflix, having so many films to campaign, will abandon both of them and just focus on The Irishman (providing it is good) and Marriage Story and maybe The Two Popes – and I guess there’s the possibility of Dolemite if it looks like it could be a player (which currently it doesn’t really)… I feel like if the Laundromat and the King belonged to less busy studios those performances might’ve gotten big pushes.
Netflix has deep pockets. As I said weeks ago, I think they will push everything they have, to show the Academy they can’t be ignored any longer.
You could be right but they will have to make decisions as to what they push most because I think they have like Lisa Taback now so she will, I imagine, be working on the top tier with less successful/ experienced people working on other films? Or maybe she can do 7 films or however many Netflix has in one year… I dunno how awards strategists work…
Though to say they have been ignored until now isn’t quite right. Regardless of it not winning best picture, Roma was definitely taken seriously in the race last year (in fact it is one of the most successful foreign films ever). Btw I know you statement doesn’t necessarily read that they were ignored last year but lots of people are still saying Netflix has been consistently ignored so I thought it was worth saying.
It was very successful, but it was only one film, so individual voters who wanted to ignore it could do so, and some did. 7 films are much harder to ignore, so this year should expand and underline Netflix’s pre-existing status as a big Hollywood player.
“Sasha is very sure he is the lead of Ford v Ferrari but there are others (Scott Feinberg for example) who are arguing that he should be pushed supporting.”
Feinberg is completely out to lunch regarding Bale.
Yeah interesting I feel like that is the majority opinion (having not seen it I’m obviously not taking sides/ having an opinion) I just find it interesting how much of a debate this can become sometimes. It will be interesting with this many potential co-leads whether anyone actually opts to campaign as co-lead!
I wager of these new TIFF debuts, only Jojo rabbit and beautiful day make a splash. Dolemite may put Murphy back in conversation but he has to contend with other comebackers such as Snadler and Banderas (who sits pretty damn well atm)
Maybe that’s just the Portman stan in me speaking, but perhaps this will be Portman’s year with Lucy in the Sky!
but that distracting wig?
I’m not really seeing Sandler tbh – it doesn’t sound like an Oscar film (as most Safdie films aren’t) as great as it may be… But yeah Banderas is seeming likely for the nom (though I think those saying he’s going to win are being way too hopeful) and actor is so crowded so I don’t really see Dolemite happening at all.
Basically I agree, though I dunno where Harriet is going to sit. It’s definitely a possibility as a player especially for Erivo
Harriet looks like middlebrow voter’s jam.
Yeah, possibly but the middlebrow voters get film across the line all the time so I’d say it’s a strong possibility!
that’s what I fear. they get too many mediocrities across the line. remember the year with TIG, TOE and Selma?
I actually think Selma was great but I otherwise agree I with the sentiment (and with the 2 examples).
I couldn’t give a damn for Margot Robbie’s performance in I, Tonya but wow, hers was the heart and soul of OUATIH and she should be in the conversation for Supporting Actress.
I agree with you about her work in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. I actually think she’s been pretty underrated in it, due to her small amount of lines. Like you said, she is the heart and soul of that movie.
One upon a time... just get the feeling there will be highly touted nominations but no wins. Both Dicaprio and Pitt have some real competition here.
I have to say I’m also a bit surprised at no mention for The Farewell in this entire article. And no Margot Robbie? It only lists four supporting actresses in this.
Hold your horses. OUATIH is frontrunner? Please no, I need not to care about the season. Don’t do this to me.
Atm. It’s frontrunner atm. I don’t buy it as a BP winner but I get where Sasha’s analysis is coming from. hollywood loves the shit out of it (it broke records in some downtown Holywood cinema or something), it has reviews and boxoffice. Right now, it’s a sure thing that checked its boxes. But competition is coming so doubtful it remains in frontrunner seat come winter.
It feels like the kind of movie that would win if the Oscars were held today, but I don’t think that momentum will last going into the remainder of the year as more movies are released. I love the film and it’s my favorite of the year so far, but I don’t think it will end up winning Best Picture in 6 months from now.
The Farewell is missing.
Margot Robbie might have a chance too.
I also would add Uncut Gems to the list too.
Finally got to see Pain & Glory today and I really hope Banderas takes flight. He has never even been nominated! Exquisite performance by him, and the whole ensemble.
No Awkwafina for The Farewell? She’s pretty great in that
How long does it usually take Metacritic to put up reviews? I find it odd that that they still have no reviews of The King, while RT already has 13. Maybe they are struggling to assign scores to some of them. It’s a confusing picture.
However, more strong reviews are trickling through, including a handful of outright raves. Maybe I wrote off Chalamet too early, in the previous thread. The weak reviews mostly seem to be coming from British critics, who are upset with this subversive take on a legendary English war hero (who invaded a neighbouring country, lest we forget).
Usually, they are up almost immediately, or within an hour. It’s a very strange situation with The King.
Motherless Brooklyn, The Aeronauts and The Two Popes are missing too.
Too funny. Finally updated. It’s at 64 after 12 reviews. Ok start. Hopefully it’ll go up ….
It should go up now, now that all the British Shakespeare purists in Venice are done.
Rex Harrison won for “my fair lady”, he didn’t for “Dr. Dolittle”. Just saying.
Joaquin Phoenix should be on top of the best actor list. I would say he is overdue after giving sensational performances for two decades and it’s the type of role which usually wins. Academy loves to award method actors and Phoenix lost alot of weight for this role. I haven’t seen the movie yet but he has been singled out in every review I have read and I’ll be surprised if he isn’t nominated.
Agreed but Sasha is famously cautious which makes sense this early.
No Phoenix in Best Actor? Come on.
Did you read the article? He’s mentioned as a frontrunner. They just forgot to add him to the list of predictions below.
That’s what I was referring to.
Side Note: The new trailer for Jojo Rabbit that dropped today = hilarious.
I am not sure AMPAS will love it but this is a movie I think that will be right at the top of my favorite films of the year.
It’s a great trailer. I do suspect the Academy IS just lazy enough to give Rockwell a nomination for the third year in a row.
good. i love him
I said it elsewhere (pun intended) but Jojo rabbit strikes me as a perfect vehicle to unite New Academy Kids (it’s woke!) and older members (Holocaust genre is back in vogue!).
I find it interesting looking at critics’ predictions on Gold Derby. Marriage Story trailer dropped and it shot up to many #1’s on predictions. Now it’s been seen and overall it’s raves and a ‘lock’ in many eyes. But it’s not really in that top spot or two or even three with the critics over there. Despite that movies’ raves and other movies hitting at festivals, OUATIH is still on average the #1 movie on their predictions while Irishman is right there too…sight unseen.
Could this be because Marriage Story might be too much of an indie/critics’ fare, and the Oscars are more likely to reward “MOVIE movies” instead?
I honestly have no idea. I only mention it because I found it interesting that despite raves it seemed to have dropped a rung or two in terms of WINNING Best Pic over the weekend.
It’s Netflix. It’s a strike against any movie that goes through their specific strategy of qualifying theatrical run and then streaming.
But didn’t a lot of people just keep Dunkirk as their frontrunner two years ago after the festivals as well because they couldn’t figure out what exactly to change it to. This could be a kind of similar situation, no one wants to move away from the July frontrunner because they’re waiting for the TIFF films and The Irishman to be seen before they can make what they consider the right judgement
For sure. Don’t read into my comment. I just find it interesting, nothing more.
You guys forgot Joaquin in Lead Actor, there is NO way he wont get it
Proclaiming there is NO way someone misses on the 3rd of September is a bit premature. But yes, he probably should be there at least as a contender. As he is referenced in the text, that was probably just an oversight.
it was an oversight, that why i said “you guys forgot” – he is a contender, likeable and talented and everybody loves him. at least online. he’s getting that “if he doesnt win we’ll riot” momentum Leo got in 2015
I get this feeling that a lot of Lead Actor contenders will be placed Supporting or campaigning in Supporting. Just a feeling, this year.
Sasha’s Top 5 cannot be frauded into Supporting even if they tried so it’s up to actors from 6 downward to pull it off.