Winning an Oscar comes down to two things: the performance and the Oscar story. A good publicist will create an Oscar story if there isn’t one already. Though people might think that it should only be about the performance, it isn’t. It can’t be. Why? Because to know a great performance is to know the performer. Sometimes just knowing the performer and wanting to see that person win is enough, even without a great performance to go along with it. But most of the time, it is knowing the performer and knowing how and what that performer did with the role to bring it to the screen that pushes a contender across the finish line.
However, last year’s Best Actress winner won because of the performance, not because people knew her or because of her Oscar story. Olivia Colman did not have an Oscar story. Glenn Close did (boy, did she ever). So clearly it isn’t always about just the Oscar story. There are other factors.
What is an Oscar story? It is the hero’s journey — my new favorite descriptive phrase that I’m now introducing into our discussions here. While the hero’s journey in Hollywood is almost exclusively applied to male heroes, it works for women too:
A lonely hero who is trying to find him[her]self. A sudden and unexpected journey, promising adventure and peril. A test of character, strength, and skill. An ultimate battle that tests the hero’s resolve. A triumphant return home.
The hero’s journey can describe so much in terms of Hollywood – what defines success and what drives the Oscar race. What it is: that idea of someone triumphing at last, the more unlikely the better. The end result: it feels GOOD when they win. The Oscar story is often that journey. How good did it feel to watch Kathryn Bigelow become the first woman to win Best Director? REALLY REALLY GOOD. How good did it feel to watch Halle Berry become the first (and still only) black actress to win Best Actress? REALLY REALLY GOOD.
It doesn’t feel good if there is no journey involved, or if you don’t care one way or the other if that person triumphs. This is why, I figure, the so-called “pretty boys” have a hard time winning for Best Actor but can win as Best Director. Or why someone who has won a lot might not feel like someone fun to vote for (e.g., Steven Spielberg for “Lincoln”). When industry voters vote, they are voting with their hearts. Always. Either for sheer love of the thing, or because they’re responding to the call to action, the hero’s triumph at last. It’s human nature and unavoidable.
Does Renee Zellweger have an Oscar story? YES.
- Lonely hero trying to find herself: Zellweger was plucked from obscurity to star opposite one of the biggest stars in the world, then must confront sudden fame and live up to early promise.
- A sudden and unexpected journey: Challenges herself in unexpected ways to play a wide variety of roles: gains weight for “Bridget Jones”, sings and dances for Chicago, and roughs herself up for “Cold Mountain,” eventually winning a Supporting Actress Oscar.
- A test of character, strength, and skill: Takes time away to live her actual life. Briefly returns and is attacked by a small-minded hive mind that punishes women for ways they keep themselves looking young. Humiliated on a big and loud stage, becomes almost a punchline.
- An ultimate battle that tests the hero’s resolve: She takes on the role of Judy Garland – the most difficult role of her career to play an actress in decline. Physically matches Garland’s voice, mannerisms, and inward trauma.
- A triumphant return home: She is, at last, a success – should she win the Oscar, she will have returned home triumphantly.
The Best Actress race this year will have several narratives running, and the outcome, at this moment, is not certain, especially since last year Glenn Close seemed to have it sewn up. Olivia Colman had something that Close didn’t have. She had a Best Picture nominee behind her with a lot of nominations – acting, writing, you name it. It only won Best Actress, but that is a lot of clout heading into the race. While it’s always been true in the era of the expanded ballot that the Best Actor winner has a corresponding Best Picture nomination, it has become truer in the Best Actress race lately, as in:
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards”
Emma Stone, “La La Land”
Brie Larson, “Room”
Julianne Moore, “Still Alice”
Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady”
Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”
Best Actor during the same period:
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Revenant”
Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything”
Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln”
Jean DuJardin, “The Artist”
Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
Still, Best Actress hasn’t matched with the Best Picture winner since — wait for it — “Million Dollar Baby” in 2004. With Best Actor, it’s as far back as “The Artist,” 2011. The reason being in the era of the expanded ballot, voters prefer to spread the wealth. And one way to do that is to give out different prizes to the top movies. Additionally, for Best Picture, the preferential ballot is in play, which is different from every other category.
Renee Zellweger is very likely not going to be in a Best Picture nominee. So which actresses might challenge her that might also be in Best Picture contenders? We don’t really know what films are going to be in the Best Picture race at the moment, or how many of them will have Best Actress nominees. Here is how that number has gone since 2009 when they expanded the ballot:
2018 – 3/5
2017 – 4/5
2016 – 1/5
2015 – 2/5
2014 — 1/5
2013 — 3/5
2012 — 4/5
2011 — 1/5
2010 — 3/5
2009 — 3/5
Once you look at it like that, you see how limited the overlap is between Best Actress nominees and Best Picture. At the most, we’re talking 4/5.
For potential Best Picture nominees, we have:
“Marriage Story” features a strong performance by Scarlett Johansson. That film seems like it could hit all of the top nominations, particularly since not many of the strongest bets out of Telluride had leading roles for women.
Possibly Cynthia Erivo, who will play Harriet Tubman in the eagerly anticipated “Harriet,” which will be seen this month at Toronto. That could have Best Picture heat, but it is too soon to tell.
Awkwafina in “The Farewell” might also be in the running for a Best Picture/Actress nomination.
Saoirse Ronan seems a fairly strong bet for lead in Greta Gerwig’s “Little Women,” which also seems like a contender for Best Picture at this point.
Charlize Theron could be in play for Best Actress in “Bombshell” which, if good, could also be in play for Best Picture.
Lupita Nyong’o has a strong shot at a nomination for her performance in “Us.” Jordan Peele’s follow up to “Get Out” was also a hit at the box office, and with a critically acclaimed dual role by Nyong’o, seems a strong bet for a nod. No black actress other than Halle Berry has won in the category – not before, not since. Nyong’o is already an Oscar winner, which helps her chances getting in here.
Alfre Woodard gives a strong central performance in “Clemency,” which won the Sundance Jury Prize this past year.
It is just too soon to know how it will play out in terms of Best Picture, and whether or not “Judy” will be in play in that category this year. If so, Zellweger will have a much better shot at dominating the whole season, which she can still do with or without a corresponding Best Picture nomination. If anyone is going to beat her, they’re going to have turn in a performance as fully realized, as emotionally devastating turn as this.
So the actresses in the running are:
Catherine Deneuve – The Truth
Florence Pugh – Midsommar
Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
Renee Zellweger – Judy
Awkwafina – The Farewell
Lupita NyOngo – Us
Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
Alfre Woodard – Clemency
Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
Charlize Theron – Bombshell
Helen Mirren – The Good Liar
Jodie Turner Smith – Queen and Slim
Rosamund Pike – Radioactive
Natalie Portman – Lucy in the Sky
Kristen Stewart – Seeberg
Felicity Jones – The Aeronauts
Emma Thompson – Late Night
Honor Swinton Byrne – The Souvenir
Doing my first predictions for the Globes:
DRAMA
Akwafina – The Farewell
Catherine Deneuve – The Truth
Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
Rosamund Pike – Radioactive
Florence Pugh – Midsommar
Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
COMEDY/ MUSICAL
Cate Blanchett – Where´d You Go, Bernadette?
Emma Thompson – Late Night
Renee Zellweger – Judy
Any more comedy or musical performers this year? Hopefully Streep is not getting a nod at the GG
Judy was submitted as a Drama.
That make things much more interesting. And it looks like Jennifer Lopez is getting award buzz as well for her best turn since Out Of Sight
Comedy/Musical category is quite thin as of now. Thompson and Streep look most likely to get in. Reviews say JLo is on supporting (as it was more of an ensemble performance ala Widows), but who knows? And if Johansson has prominent screen time in Jojo Rabbit which is getting glowing reviews then he might get in as well.
Oscar winner Regina King was the only nominee in her category without a Best Picture nod. She also wasn’t nominated for SAG and BAFTA. And look at how many people here dismissed her, even though the pundits, oddsmakers had her out in front.
Alright, since no one isn’t even mentioning her despite giving a tremendous tour de force and easily the best performance by a lead actress I’ve seen this year, in a just world, Florence Pugh would sweep the entire race for her astonishing turn in Midsommar.
If Toni Collette couldn’t even score a nom for her exceptional work last year in Ari Aster’s previous film, I doubt Florence has any actual chance sadly. Still, her immensely powerful, unforgettable portrayal of Dani should earn her every award possible. At this point I’m just gobsmacked by her talent.
Well based on the trailer alone, “physically matches Garland’s voice, mannerisms” isnt true. I was horribly let down by the first glimpse. Perhaps it reads better when seen as a whole, but all I could think was yikes. Looks more like Ronan vs. Johansson to me.
Feinberg over at THR said that officially Netflix has confirmed the placement for “The Two Popes” actors: Pryce will go Lead, and Hopkins Supporting. I think Pryce will be a major contender in the race – maybe Phoenix major contender.
Despite how competitive this is I think he could even win… Though I also say this about Phoenix, Driver and possibly (though I don’t see it as much as others do) DiCaprio and several others. It’s a crazy year but if everything eventually falls in the right direction I think Pryce could totally end up on top.
Eddie Murphy benefits more from a fragmented Best Actor field.
I pity anyone who wins over Phoenix. public wants Phoenix so it’s better to be an also-run than an upsetter.
The public haven’t seen it yet… It could turn out that the public view is it is a boring movie that they wish was more like a regular superhero film (for example). Just because it’s a superhero film doesn’t automatically make it a public hit.
they’ll be impressed.
Also, some AMPAS voters may see giving an Oscar to Renee as is some way tandem to rewarding an Oscar to Judy Garland herself. Judy never won a competitive Oscar despite being highly deserving of one.
Renee should have won for Chicago. Kidman frauded herself into Lead and won for prosthetic nose in a movie most people forgot about. Kidman is a great actress but it just doesn’t feel right she won for that thing. To Die For and Moulin Rouge should have been her wins. Satine 4eva.
Oh god yes. Renée was great in Chicago nobody remembers the hours
I revisit The Hours every few years. A perfect screenplay, brilliant acting and utterly impressive directing choices that turned what truly felt like an unfilmable novel, into a modern cinematic masterpiece. My two cents.
It holds up so well and is so chock full of gorgeous performances. Love the novel and still can’t believe what justice the film did to a sprawling literary work.
It aged incredibly well indeed. I remember finishing the novel maybe a year before the film, thinking, yeah there is just simply no way they can pull this off especially not with a relatively rookie director with a grand total of one feature film to his name at the time. So imagine my surprise when I realised Daldry not only pulled it off, he did so with flying colours… AND effortless transitions both visually and narratively while getting brilliant performances from his cast and top-notch work from his creative crew (editing, cinematography, score, costumes, set design were all top-notch even though they had to pull off three different eras and somehow bring all together into one seamless union).
Couldn’t agree more.
100% agree
100%. It’s a perfect film in my opinion, how did it not win more Oscars, especially Score?
One of my top 3 films of all time
Renee should have won for Chicago but I recently watched the hours and it really holds up. Great movie
Kidman deserves that win for The Hours. I know the issue of lesser screentime compared to Moore and Streep but probably the same as Colman and Hopkins where in they’re the center of the narrative. Her Virginia Woolf could have been a bad caricature but she’s in control of her character that she transcends the cerebral qualities of Woolf to humanity.
The Hours is also holding up its brilliance to me. I love Chicago as well and all the performance there but for me Kidman to deserves that win.
I still can’t get over Kidman snub for Moulin Rouge. Such an iconic performance.
Among the nominations of Kidman, she should have gotton 2 Oscars already and a back-to-back: The Hours and Moulin Rouge! Both unforgetabble performances and a performer at her peak of power. So proud that we still get to see that today from Kidman.
I hope she gets another for something in the future.
Not to mention her Bafta nominated star turn in The Others, as well, in the Moulin Rouge year no less.
Most people… forgot about… The Hours? I think not. It is a masterpiece.
In online movie buff circles, yes. Like all litle seen movies that will never be widely seen.
I see.
To be fair The Hours was not “little seen”. It made close to 110M worldwide AND delivered that number almost two decades ago, too, so when you add inflation, it is even more impressive. Clearly no Avatar but still a very respectable number for a low-budget arthouse title.
Wow, didn’t know that. Star power I guess.
Agreed. I watch it once a year.
Judy Garland has been dead for fifty years. Highly doubt the current makeup of the Academy cares THAT strongly about her.
While Zellweger was charismatic in Chicago, Kidman was spot on in The Hours. The whole “just won for wearing a fake nose” was the media manipulating a strong performance into a great clickbait. Besides, look at ALL the other people who have won wearing heavy makeup- including recent winner Gary Oldman in The Darkest Hour and Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln- who like Kidman, were portraying historical figures. Streep too, won in tons of makeup in The Iron Lady. Makeup helps a lot. Though it didn’t help Bale, but Malek deserved to win.
Back to Nicole, she is captivating as Virginia Woolf. Recently revisiting it, I loved how she takes her voice tone down notches below her own, isn’t hammy over the top, and radiates confidence and intensity. I would have actually preferred more of HER story on screen then Streep’s modern day piece involving Ed Harris, Allison Janney and Jeff Daniels. I loved the odd, sexual chemistry between Kidman and Miranda Richardson (the whole film does have strong lesbian themes and “suggestive” narratives on those lines). I love Kidman’s chemistry with the little girl who asks what happens when we die. “We go back to the place that we came from.” How gentle she was with that little girl, vs how cold she was with people like her husband (brilliantly played by Stephen Dillane). She was best in show to me. Julianne Moore was strong, but was essentially playing an extension of her character in Far from Heaven, her superior work nominated the same year. And Streep, while always exceptional, had better fare in Adaptation that year, where she was rightfully nominated.
Zellweger’s performance as Roxy in Chicago was great because it was an unexpected casting decision (in my eyes anyway). She had a lot of screen time, and performed her musical scenes just the way you would expect the mousy character to do so. However, she is outshined by costar Catherine Zeta-Jones (who won in supporting)- and it is VERY hard for a movie to win Lead and Supporting Actress Oscars together. The last film to do this was Shakespeare in Love (1998- Gwyneth Paltrow and Judi Dench. Both women unfortunately didn’t deserve their hardware. Dench won as a make up for dissing her in Mrs. Brown the year earlier; Paltrow won because she had been in a ton of films that year and was the “it” girl so to speak. Oh and Harvey helped the movie overall). Back to Renee. Her Garland role looks a bit…forced? I don’t know. Like Emily Blunt playing Mary Poppins, When I watch Zellweger I’m LOOKING for Judy the entire time. The trailer doesn’t show me that. Garland had such a unique, flawless singing voice (one that Jane Horrocks imitated effortlessly in another 1998 film, Little Voice). Zellweger I imagine will do much better with her off-concert scenes, but even here I am hearing her straining to become a caricature of the person vs. the soul. Judy Davis played Garland in the TV movie Me and My Shadows, and SHE was Garland! I’ll wait for the film to release to give my final two cents.
Kidman’s 5 Best Performances:
1. To Die For (1995)
2. The Hours (2002)
3. Dogville (2003)
4. Rabbit Hole (2010)
5. Moulin Rouge! (2001)
Honorable Mentions: Birth (2004), The Paperboy (2014), The Others (2001), Eyes Wide Shut (1999).
Ford v Ferrari will get the most nominations in the technical categories or the movie cats if it gets great reviews
Excited to see Zellweger in this. I’ve been a fan ever since Jerry Maguire – which I thought she should have been nominated for… but it’s nice to see her back in the game.
Somewhat off-topic – Feinberg over at THR is stating in his most recent column that Damon is going Lead for Ford v Ferrari and Bale is going Supporting. Does anyone know if this has been decided, or is it purely speculation? The column is more about Two Popes and Pryce/Hopkins placement, but it lists the competitors in each category…
Feinberg has been expressing that he thinks that they’ll go that way, unless he mentions official category placements, I think we should think of it as his predictions based on how he thinks they will or should be placed
I’ve been a fan ever since Empire Records. I’m rooting for her.
Oh man I always forget she’s in that. LOVE
Or Erivo could win for playing an American legend Harriet tubman
In a Lifetime movie. perhaps eligible for Daytime Emmy?
Can you elaborate on that please? I understood that it was being distributed by Focus Features.
The movie looks as pedestrian as any Lifetime movie of the week. Too polished, too new costumes even when a character supposedly walked miles through mud, you can see her get-up isn’t worn out but brand new with strategically places dust. It follows every cliche from slavery subgenre book. In short, middlebrow AMPAS should lap it up.
Reason -ampas loves Hollywood stars and actresses from olden times
Zellweger will win this category
Zellweger has comeback which is one of strongest and most beloved narratives. it doesn’t mean she’ll win but it should be at least good enough for “in contention to win” nomination which is stronger than ‘thanks for participating” nomination.
I absolutely love this potential lineup. Full of newbies, vets and for once…diversity!! Don’t need any streeps this year ruining it! It’s still hella early and anyone still could crash the party but it’s cool to see everyone’s predictions!! Lol last year just really burned me out that im sitting back and playing it cool this time around. For now:)
well, Streep is gonna ruin either Actress or Supporting. whichever she decides.
I’m going to take an early stab that these women will be nominated:
Zellweger, Johansson, Ronan. It just feels right.
That leaves two spots.
IF Harriet is good, Erivo could be right in there.
Awkwafina might be the beneficiary if Erivo drops out.
And if Bombshell hits … Theron looks primed, as well.
I don’t see it happening for N’yongo.
Golden Globes will probably be the first major Lead Actress showdown as Drama looks like to be a packed category.
It’ll be interesting on which category will Netflix enter Marriage Story. Hard to tell since I haven’t seen it yet but based on reviews it’s leaning on Drama more than Comedy.
The Farewell will probably and should be in Drama. Unless A24 sees an opportunity to win in Comedy, they can very well do that since the film has light and funny moments that could warrant it.
Judy is entered as Drama.
Not sure how big the artistic liberties that Gerwig took but she mentioned that she added dark aspects in her adaptation that’s not in the book so I guess it’ll de in Drama as well.
Unless Us went the Get Out route, it’s Drama.
If Meryl Streep campaigns in Lead then she’s the first contender in Comedy Lead Actress so far.
Right now, Globes Drama Lead Actress contenders looks like:
Johannsson, Zellweger, Awkwafina, Ronan, Nyong’o, Woodard, Erivo
I’m only here to stan for Florence Pugh in Midsommar. I know she has no shot at a nomination, but hot damn, that was easily one of the best performances of the year, male or female. I could truly feel her trauma, anxiety, fear, disdain, confusion, exhaustion, and relief. And she’s one of the most authentic people in the industry to boot.
Fortunately, there’s some strong early word around her work in LITTLE Women – she’s said to be the best in show – so Best Supporting Actress is likely to happen for her. No matter what she’s having a great 2019: FIGHTING WITH MT FAMILY, MIDSOOMMAR and LITTLE WOMEN. She’s destined to be a major name in the industry
Pugh is 100% a name on the rise. She’s also getting some of that Marvel money in the Black Widow movie next year.
Yes!
Lupita gave a superior horror movie performance in a much better reviewed movie that was a huge boxoffice hit. She’s not happening either but I’m just pointing out that, when it comes to horror genre, there’s a better received performance already. Also, on A24 side, Collette was also way better in better reviewed horror movie with better boxoffice just last year. we agree that Pugh is not happening for Midsommer but I think she shouldn’t happen for it period. The movie was a huge step down from Hereditary in every way, lead included.
Spain has chosen Pain and Glory – yippee!
The Two Popes is at 84 on Metacritic. Very impressive …
The Aeronauts is at 72.
First Cow 76.
The only missing one is Motherless Brooklyn now.
Parasite is at 100% after 78 reviews. Think about that for a second!
Oh, but that was Rotten Tomatoes. Sorry. Metacritic must be lower.
For the record, it’s on 89. Which, yeah, is very impressive.
I have five theories about Glenn Close’s loss….
* just as Sasha says, Academy voters just liked Colman’s performance more (and by extension, The Favourite more). Simple as that.
* any voter who watched The Wife was watching purely to evaluate Glenn Close’s performance as a potential Oscar winner, since the film didn’t draw any attention otherwise. Whereas voters were watching The Favourite because the movie was so widely-regarded, as well, but that’s a different kind of pre-existing expectation going into a viewing, since there was less pressure on Colman’s performance itself. If anything, it might’ve been seen by some viewers as a bit of a surprise, sort of like “oh I knew Weisz and Stone were supposed to be good here, but Colman really steals the show.”
* Close isn’t particularly popular within the industry. Total speculative guess, since I’ve heard nothing to suggest that she isn’t liked. She’s a little anti-Hollywood, but lots of those types of actor-first performers have won in the past.
* moreso than being liked or disliked, she isn’t seen as being particularly overdue. Despite the 0-for-7, I’m not sure if she was actually robbed in any of those seven defeats, or was even the best of the non-winning nominees.
* Peter O’Toole has a lot of fans in the Academy and they want someone to spare him from the most losses albatross. This one is a little thin. 🙂
She definitely was robbed for Dangerous Liaisons. One of the best female performances of that decade if not ever.
She was great in that movie, but I’m not sure if she was appreciatively better (or better at all) than Jodie Foster
In recent years since the expanded ballot, the awards have been spread to give a bone to most best picture nominees. This was the place for The Favourite to get its Oscar.
I think Close was second place in couple of her races for the years she was nominated (1987 and 88, perhaps).
For me, it was 2 things.
Everyone was watching The Favourite because it was nominated 10 times. I’m sure there were people who didn’t give The Wife a look. I also think that voters fell in love with Colman during the campaign trail.
I also thought I heard that Close wasn’t beloved in the industry. I’m not saying she’s disliked. But who knows, she might’ve burned some bridges over the years and, Colman had no bridges to burn. Those votes might’ve mattered.
I’ve heard that she’s more than a little “not liked” in the industry.
I’d go as far as to suggest that Close didn’t even come in second (I suspect McCarthy might have)
I think sometimes when a beloved performer loses the Oscar even with a great backstory it is because the voting members have a distaste for that performer that we are unaware.
Lauren Bacall?
Lauren Bacall was style, personality and a legend but it does not mean she could act Binoche is a great actress and was luminescent in The English Patient.
Juliette Binoche was Luminous in The English Patient so substance over style. Yes.
If I Nominated for Best Actress 2019:
(84 new releases seen as of comment)
…..
— Cate Blanchett (Where’d You Go, Bernadette)
— Beanie Feldstein (Booksmart)
— Lupita Nyong’o (Us)
— Emma Thompson (Late Night)
— Tao Zhao (Ash Is Purest White)
(about 85-90 releases seen)
Honor Swinton Byrne (The Souvenir)
Erika Karata (Asako I & II)
Lupita Nyong’o (Us)
Emma Thompson (Late Night)
Tao Zhao (Ash Is the Purest White)
Asako!!! What a lovely performance !!
If Judy does well even in a limited release or specialty box-office then I think a BP nod is possible. It would also be credited to Zellweger’s star power.
I really hope ScarJo gets in for Marriage Story given the good reviews of her performance and will really break my heart if she gets left out again and Driver gets in Lead Actor.
Zellweger is the front-runner right now for sure, but I see Scarlett Johansson (“Marriage Story”) as her major competition, since she also got that “best performance of her career” rave reviews from Venice and Telluride. ScarJo narrative would rely on her superstar status with no Oscar nod and her past Oscar snubbed performances in “Ghost World”, “Lost In Translation”, “Match Point”, “Her” and “Under the Skin” (FIVE!!!). Maybe Charlize Theron (“Bombshell”) goes for Oscar #2, but her movie is such a late release!
.
My predictions:
#1: Zellweger, JUDY
#2: Johansson, MARRIAGE STORY
#3: Erivo, HARRIET
#4: Woodard, CLEMENCY
#5: Theron, BOMBSHELL or maybe Ronan, LITTLE WOMEN (but people LOVE Winona Ryder’s performance so much and it stills so fresh)
It’s true I can still see Winona telling Mr. Baer –in the rain–” no, I’m not married!”
Popularity factor: Is Rene as well liked as Scarlet? Probably not.
Off topic but how is Tim Gray one of the critics selected for predictions on Gold Derby? His predictions are always off base…which is fine.
But when he doesn’t list ANY predictions for OUATIH, something is rotten in Denmark. You don’t like the movie, so be it. But regardless if you don’t like it or not it’s very likely that Original Screenplay and Pitt would be nominated. He doesn’t list them in any of his predictions. Sorry but that’s just stupid.
He has The Laundromat as his #1 movie and other nominations as well…and no that’s not an old prediction. That’s from less than two days ago.
I used to think the same, but I now realised that he is not predicting at all, he is using that platform solely to advocate. He switches to predicting only a little bit before nominations day, when all of his picks dramatically change. Until then, he will have the wildest things.
Zellweger
Ronan
Scarjo
Those seem pretty safe
Awkwafina
Erivo
Theron
Portman (my sleeper pick)
How’s Ronan safe for the movie that hasn’t been seen, plus is coming out after other actresses took advantage of longer campaigning period due to having their movies seen? I get it if someone has ultra baity role, like Lincoln or Churchill, that they are considered frontrunners sight unseen. But Jane March or whatever her name?