Do we have our Best Picture winner in Telluride or Toronto? Has it already been seen? The last film to win Best Picture without being plucked from Telluride, Toronto, Venice, or Cannes was Martin Scorsese’s The Departed, which was released in October 2006. This year, Quentin Tarantino, like Scorsese, has a grand slam lined up with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – he’s collected a lot of cred in his career and has never won Best Director. That’s a lot like Scorsese in 2006, though to a slightly lesser degree: Scorsese had Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, and Goodfellas, while Tarantino has Reservoir Dogs, Pulp Fiction, and Inglourious Basterds. I mean, Hitchcock and Kubrick are two who never won any Oscars, so take it all with a grain of salt but … cred is cred. Just saying.
Closing out Telluride, Michael Patterson at Michael’s Telluride Blog asked the attendees to rate the films they saw. First, the attendees queried:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
J. Don Birnam-Jorge T/SplashReport.com
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Marshall Flores/Awards Daily
Mark Johnson/Awards Circuit
Gary Kramer/Salon
Scott Menzel/We Live Entertainment
Kenny Miles/We Live Entertainment
Matt Neglia/Next Best Picture
Eugene Novikov/Rotten Tomatoes
John Rhodes/Screencraft
Christopher Schiller/ScriptMag.com
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
Chris Willman/Variety
Anonymous
And next, the films stacked up this year, with Parasite topping them all (not surprisingly):
1) Parasite (4.75)
2) The Two Popes (4.42)
3) Marriage Story (4.40)
4) Waves (4.29)
5) A Hidden Life (4.20)
6) Portrait of a Lady on Fire (4.17)
7) Ford v Ferrari (4.11)
8) The Report (3.87)
9) Pain and Glory (3.83)
10) Uncut Gems (3.78)
11) Motherless Brooklyn (3.58)
12) The Climb (3.50)
13) Judy (3.13)
14) The Aeronauts (3.08)
15) The Assistant (2.75)
I can’t really argue with this list! Michael tallied the list of high scores since he started tracking these and here is how it came out: Best Picture nominees in bold, winners have a +.
1) Moonlight (4.87) (16)+
2) Parasite (4.75) (19)
3) Roma (4.73) (18)
4) Birdman (4.72) (14)+
5) 12 Years a Slave (4.70-tie) (13)+
6) Central Park Five (4.70-tie) (12)
7) Foxcatcher (4.63) (14)
8) La La Land (4.58) (16)
9) Argo (4.50-tie) (12)+
9) The Shape of Water (4.50-tie) (17)
10) Son of Saul (4.44) (15)
So, Parasite is a film that will land number ones quite easily and may make it into Best Picture.
What might win the audience award at Toronto? Might Parasite win there? That would be kind of shocking but honestly … people who see it, love it. Green Book won the audience award last year when everyone thought it would go to, say, A Star Is Born. Toronto’s People’s Choice Award isn’t always a pathway to Best Picture: Green Book, 12 Years a Slave, The King’s Speech, Slumdog Millionaire, and American Beauty are the only films that have won both in the past twenty years. It’s not exactly a reliable precursor, but it is interesting. Contenders for that prize this year appear to be Waves, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Jojo Rabbit, Knives Out, or something that hasn’t shown yet.
Here is a quick and dirty look at the films I think are looking good for the Best Picture race right now, but are, by no means, guaranteed. This is based on the film, how it played, and the “in it to win it” publicity team behind it. Remember, to be nominated for Best Picture, a film needs at least 200 number one votes, i.e. landing at “favorite film of the year” for 200 people. That means a divisive film gets in for nominations a lot more easily than it does for winning on a preferential ballot:
Safest bets right now:
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Sony
Marriage Story – Netflix
The Two Popes – Netflix
Ford v Ferrari – Fox
Waves – A24
Parasite – Neon
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood – Sony
Borderline – depends on several factors but benefit from being number one films:
Joker – WB
The Farewell – A24
Jojo Rabbit – Fox Searchlight
Ad Astra – Fox
The Report – Amazon
Hustlers – STX
Knives Out – Lionsgate
Films still not seen:
The Irishman – Netflix
Harriet – Focus Features
Little Women – Sony
1917 – Universal
Bombshell – Lionsgate
A couple of things to note: Netflix isn’t getting three films in for Best Picture. There is just no way. Marriage Story is going to be pushed along with The Irishman, but The Two Popes is going to be beloved too. Maybe two will get in, but not all three.
We will catch up on Best Actor and Best Actress when the festival comes to a close.
Side note : JOJO RABBIT started to somewhat recover. If it could get above 60 on MC and stay above 70 on RT, it would be a legit contender for the “divisive, edgy” slot that the Academy reserves for a film every now and then (NOT every year). A shocking win at TIFF (Audience Award) would surely help but the competition for that award is very stiff this year.
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problem is, from what I surmised, reviews aren’t good enough for a nom. They are OK. It isn’t a misfire but it isn’t a contender. I don’t see predictions for awards in any category. So, like Just OK, it’s banking on People’s Choice to give it a nom push. But winning seems out of question.
I can’t get a good read on it – the bad reviews seem to be coming primarily from the woke crowd going “you can’t make a comedy movie about Nazis if you’re not gonna show a depressing grueling look at the horrible things that went on!” And I don’t see the academy thinking like that… But also it’s a weird comedy that won’t be pushed by critics so I doubt it’s getting in anyway.
I haven’t seen many of those reviews but more of “it’s a really safe movie that thinks comedy makes it more audacious than it is” and that it seems it works better before the kid meets “Ana Frank”. That’s when everything goes down the really beaten path.
But I agree. Hard to get the read on it. I’m not detecting critical passion but who knows what voters will think? If it wins Audience Award, than hell. And tbh, it sounds like this, another meh Just Mercy and no-one-thought-it-would-happen Hustlers have the best shot. I’m rooting for Hustlers to jump over the other two, ha ha. Knives Out could also surprise.
i wouldnt put too much stock on this movie making it too far. An anti-hate satire is destined to be divisive because the movie should be able to capture the horrible truth under the satire eventually. But for some reason if the movie misses that then i dont think critics and voters gonna love it.
Very early score so obviously must be taken with a grain of salt but for what it’s worth in spite of lukewarm to cold early word, it looks like critics won’t bury it after all. If it ends above 70 then the film will be perceived good enough not to hurt Erivo’s campaign for the nomination. For the win she would need a whole lot more (strong Box Office, semi-surprising BP consideration) but for now the Best Actress nomination is still a viable possibility.
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It’s not Jojo Rabbit for sure.
Quite the opposite indeed. JOJO RABBIT had excellent early word then a rude awakening when the actual reviews started rolling in, while HARRIET had very mixed early word followed somewhat surprisingly, by a perfectly decent set of first reviews.
I’m done with critics. They chickened out of giving Joker enough positives to make it a legit contender because they are pandering to Film twitter. They chickened out of calling Harriet trash cause they are scared of criticizing diversity movies not produced by Tyler Perry or starring kevin hart (their safe punching bags for proving that they aren’t biased and having lighter standards for minority-based movies). Screw them. Seriously, we are going to end up with another political mediocrity as the Picture win (Jojo or Just Mercy), another forgettable Actress win (Erivo) and what not?
Reviews don’t really matter for the Oscars though, as we were happy to be reminded last year.
Unfortunately, that’s even worse for my case. Shitty movies both winning and not being called shit when they should have been.
But it also invalidates your other point: Joker can easily become an awards contender without a 90+ Metacritic score.
I’m a born pessimist but thank you for lifting my spirits. though shitty middlebrow movies have better shot.
I’ll rather have my points invalidated than have another blahfest win.
that’s a bad news for well reviewed great movies too then. 🙂
critics are afraid to bury it. It’s a race bait and they are afraid to openly call these movies bad when they are. So they are giving it a pass but reviews itself aren’t awards-level ones, not even for Erivo.
Harriet has a score of 70 on Metacritic based on 5 reviews.
And a score of 100 on Rottentomateos based on 8.
If it stays above 70 on RT and above 60 on MC, Erivo will have a good shot at the nomination.
Especially if the film makes money.
Based on 8.
well, ADOS are boycotting and while the movie was made for white guilters, don’t think many will show up. Looks like a TV flick. No one else has a reason to care.
“…..in it to win it” publicity team….”
What are their names? What are their records? What are their dirty deeds? Which Oscar blogs do they support?
People on GD are saying DiCaprio is getting snubbed. Imagine that.
yeah..i can clearly imagine that…nobody owes him anything
And why is that? Outside of Phoenix and Driver, who else is firmly above him? I’d like to know their reasoning.
They are saying he just won and there are way too many great performances this year.
Just won…heh, as if that stopped Waltz and Ali wins.
But Best Actor is harder to get. More prestigious.
true. I also think that people feel DeNiro may not be so sure but are afraid to nix him cause DeNiro, so they are nixing Leo under excuse that he won recently. It seems to me that DeNiro is Top 5 cause of who he is and Marty movie. But he may well be the one to miss out of Irishman doesn’t connect. Two Popes looks strong for Pryce and DeNiro would be Netflix’s third actor with Driver and Pryce. And most predictors hesitate to nix any of the three.
Weird, I just was thinking about it earlier today and to me there seem to be surprisingly few performances that feel like they could actually get in:
Phoenix
Driver
DiCaprio
De Niro
Pryce
Banderas
Bale (if he’s put in lead)
Hanks (if he’s put in lead)
Am I missing anyone? If not, 6-8 contenders is really weak for the best actor, and is not probably really enough to push off someone who’s considered the lead of one of the biggest films of the season, who is beloved and quite unlike any of the other contenders in terms of the kind of actor he’s considered to be (a moviestar even in these days when such a concept feels dated) as well as in terms of the tone of the performance: he’s probably the only one of these performances that is kind of light (I know that Marriage Story is said to have comedic beats as well but I’d imagine that at least in moments it’s too melancholic a performance to describe as “light”). Plus he gets coattail support from Pitt, who seems to be generally agreed to be at least a contender to win best supporting actor
Egerton.
I also wonder if anything can coalesce around Kelvin Harrison Jr.
It does seem to be those “10” right now.
Phoenix
Driver
DiCaprio
DeNiro
Pryce
Banderas
Bale (if he’s put in lead)
Hanks (if he’s put in lead)
Egerton
Harrison Jr.
Kelvin Harrison was really good in Luce. He outacted circles around Octavia Spencer.
I didn’t like his performance either. I loved Octavia though.
Good choices. I didn’t know Harrison was considered in lead, I had the idea that he was considered a possible contender in supporting
pitt should be nominated instead of him in leading role, not supporting
Not surprised tho’. Many are saying the same thing on AW.
I think that happens when there’s influx of glowing festival reviews and contenders with movies that are already in the cinema seem like they are fading away. But that’s always the case in venice/Telluride/TIFF season. What matters is who has the buzz in the next 2 months. Not all festival stars will hold on.
What do they say about JoJo, Just Mercy and Erivo aka sorta flops?
I am super hyped for ford v Ferrari. Waves will be too small to get in and parasite will be the burning of this year and it will get into international film category at best.
Parasite director will take a Director spot. Directors Branch is snobby so they like to include acclaimed foreigners. They scoff at capeshitters.
they completely snubbed okja remember ? bong joon ho is more of a commercial director. The economic inequalities and how they manifest in south korea is very new to american critics and that’s why fell for the movie. Don’t expect that to be the case with voters.
Pawlikowski got it in, though. But point taken.
but cold war is not a thrill/suspense based movie. It is a drama that is based on measured story. Its easy to hook audience if the movie is based on some suspense or thrill based elements. Cold war is much harder to engage audience especially voters than something like parasite.
Okja is his worst movie, though. I’ve seen all 7 of them. They gave Palme d’Or unanimously and the Jury included Inarritu, Pawlikowski and Lanthimos. Bong is certain in Best Director even if it missed Picture somehow.
lets see how it does..i do love memories of murder a lot.
What exactly do the situations of Parasite and Burning have in common? That they’re both Korean movies that among other things are about class? Last year Burning was making these same rounds but after Cannes people seemed mostly respectful and admiring of it but few people were really standing up to mention it during festival season, the Cannes jury hadn’t awarded it because according to Cate Blanchett that movie needed time and they didn’t have it and no awards pundits at any point of the year considered it seriously for anything other than Foreign Language Film or ever really even mentioned that they liked it (which has made me wonder whether some people even watched it, but at least they weren’t passionate about it and loud about their passion for it). I remember very vividly as someone who both watched the movie early and considered Burning to be the best film of last year how time after time things could have kicked into gear but they just never did, no one just pushed it or got people excited enough about it outside saying that Yeun was brilliant (which he is, but how can you get that performance nominated if the film isn’t moving anywhere?)
Instead Parasite, after winning the Palme unanimously has been talked about and talked up by people who you wouldn’t expect to do it: Scott Feinberg named it the best film of Telluride, seemingly almost every single pundit who hadn’t seen it before Telluride went to see it there and raved about it (compare this to for example Portrait of a Lady on Fire, which I didn’t hear a thing about from that festival), it did incredibly well at Michael Patterson’s Telluride poll, Bong Joon-ho seems to be already campaigning at Telluride and the movie has been released in a lot of countries already and a lot of people from those countries are particularly vocal and passionate in their love of Parasite. To be honest, I’m even quite surprised that Sasha is already at this point talking about that movie as I often feel like she really starts to talk passionately about the non-English language films she loves from the year only when year is starting to be over (this is not a negative comment towards Sasha in any way, there are a lot of movies and understandably the English-language contenders are more important usually for assessing the race). This shows that Neon has good timing, they know that they need to slowly build the idea of Parasite as a movie that voters need to see, they’re getting it out there to people whose support means a lot in the race and they have done it early so that the passion for Parasite will only grow and that every film will be compared to Parasite instead of the other way around. They seem to be aiming for best picture and they’ve done a lot of good work already, which is not what I can say about Burning.
bye Erivo. It’s Reneè vs Scarlett
did Harriet bomb?
reactions aren’t that great, she will likely get a nom but nothing else.
Actress field is so weak this year. We have Renee and Scarlett as the closest to a sure thing and beyond that is wild west. Awakwafina looks good but maybe not as sure as the first tier. Saoirse, Charlize and Natalie haven’t been seen yet. Cynthia is seen but looks to be her movie’s only nom if it happens. Are Meryl and JLo going supporting or lead? Given how weak Lead is, they should try. Woodard’s movie may be to small. Will Lupita be remembered? So very fluxy field outside of Ren-Jo.
Theron is not safe either. Looks like Bombshell might bomb lol. Getting reshoots right now.
Oh I didn’t think anyone is safe outside Ren-Jo duo. Least of all unseen performances and movies,
Wait, Bombshell is getting reshoots? isn’t it premiering at TIFF? WTF LMAO?
That’s what people on AW are saying. Most people had Theron because her role is very transformative and voters love that shit (Oldman, Bale, herself lol in Monster) but if her movie bombs it’s over.
Is AW available for viewing to registered accounts only now or they changed their address? It was possible to just read comments a few weeks ago and now it isn’t or at least I can’t see them.
You can’t register for now due to some internal problems.
Oh I wouldn’t anyway for I’m bad with registrations, always forget passwords, lol. I was just wondering why the forum isn’t available for public viewing. So what are their latest predictions in Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, and 2 Supporting? I read Goldderby Forums now but their layout isn’t as good as AW’s and they don’t have Poll-based Discussion Threads which are the best thing about AW’s Prediction Forum.
Mods asked us not tell so unfortunately I can’t disclose the reasons. All I can say is don’t expect this to be solved soon. It’s gonna take a while.
That’s fine. I respect it. I was just curious where they stand on Phoenix win tbh. That’s the main thing that interests me this season.
Well, those people who have seen both MS and Joker say Driver’s performance is better. Anyway this is the poll’s result: 1.Driver( 87.76), 2. DiCaprio (85.66), 3.Phoenix (80.42), 4. Banderas (54.20), 5. De Niro (33.57) 6. Pryce(32.87).
Awesome! Thanks!
I’m torn because I love both Phoenix and Driver and I’m sure both are magnificent in their own right. But I don’t want Driver to have a disputed win and I feel that it’s Phoenix time finally and that more people want him to win for due and the kind of role that doesn’t win often but is remembered forever. I want driver to win for his “Joker” if you know what I mean.iconic, timeless, undeniable performance in a movie that a lot of people will see not just cinephile bloggers.
Lupita or Alfre might get in. Many experts have taken out both Erivo and Ronan.
Fuck yeah, go Lupita!
That said, is Ronan taken out due to some behind the scene tea or just because?
I think it’s because Little Women skipped all the festivals and people believe her role is not baity enough.
Well, whatever brings back Lupita is good in my book. She is phenomenal in Us and if Maslany could win Emmy for playing 20 unlikable characters, Lupita should get a nom for playing one likable and one weird but sympathetic.
Starting to think Zellweger will win over Scarlett….Laura Dern and Adam Driver are also frontrunners in their categories. There’s no way all of them will win
Phoenix is the frontrunner in Actor. Zellwegger in Actress. Dern in Supporting. Pitt in Supporting.
Driver will lose, you can’t beat overdue acclaimed Phoenix, it’s a default win a la Di Caprio/Oldmam. Driver indeed is the Chalamet of this season.
I love Driver so I’d rather see him win when he’s undeniable and people are clamoring for his win than over the long overdue actor in an iconic role that everyone wants to win. This is Phoenix time and Driver will have his time. You want people to cheer your win not boo it for they felt someone else should have won.
Plus, nom itself is a huge career boost and he has a show stopper Sondheim rendition so that should put him on many top director’s lists.
Everyone who has seen Marriage Story is raving about Driver. Not so much about ScarJo so I think Renne has this.
Agreed. Scarlett will get her first nom but Renee will win. She seems completely undeniable.
Awesome to hear that for Driver. he’s really versatile.
Btw why are we so sold on 1917?
I would be sold jusr for Deakins shooting a “single shot” film… But also it being made by a director who of the 7 films he’s made at least 2 are legitimate masterpieces with the rest at the very least being good and the rest have at worst been good… Also it feels like a really personal film for Mendes and when a film someone is making affects them personally they are going to care more about it being good. Not to mention the amazing cast and how great that trailer is.
Though you never know until it is released!
Honestly it sounds really good but it’s another war movie and tbh I doubt people are going to love it. I remember when everyone was predicting Dunkirk to win and it didn’t turn out so well when the season started. It didn’t do bad at the Oscars winning for Mixing and Editing but the passion just wasn’t there.
I mean, I’m not saying it’s winning best picture but I could totally see it landing where Dunkirk did and a cinematography win could be in the cards if the movie does end up a win. As with other late releases it’s just a waiting game now
I’d argue best director is lacking the kind of achievement that in previous years has won the category, something where the act of directing the film is presented as the most incredible thing and in my opinion 1917 looks like the only possible contender that is like that. As a result the film automatically also gets a high ranking in best picture for me. But I’m a little surprised that so many other people are suddenly naming the film as a strong possibility as well.
This comment is underrated. I’m looking at Director contenders and no one pops up with showy directing that we had from Three Amigos or Nolan’s Dunkirk. So maybe 1917 is the one.
I’m really skeptical on Downton Abbey’s awards performance. I also don’t think the BAFTA’s will reward it since they didn’t really went all out with it during its TV run, winning mostly just low-profile tech awards. The Brits have other film choices they could rally behind.
Harriet seems more likely to be out of contention. It didn’t get the critics. I honestly didn’t bought it based on the trailer. And won’t Focus Features’ sister company Universal Pictures, focus their awards campaign for Cats?
Cats really is the big wildcard of the season. So many different things could happen with that film.
Very true. As far as critical consensus goes I could literally see it end up in the cellar or if all the weirdness in the trailer actually turns out to be unique artistry working well narratively, then very high, too. If I am being brutally honest, I’m sort of expecting it to be closer to the cellar but it’s just a hunch, I could be very easily wrong.
I think Downton Abbey may score nominations in supporting actress (Maggie Smith’s role has already garnered her 3 Emmys, a Golden Globe and a SAG award), art direction and costume design but that’s about it. While I am sure it will make money worldwide, reviews are “only good”. Not bad so it won’t hurt its Box Office but also not great so it probably won’t help / warrant a potential awards campaign.
First reactions coming out of Harriet now – obviously don’t rely on early reactions too much but they seem to be mostly saying it is pretty conventional but Erivo is great… Still don’t really know where it’ll land but that seems more or less like the expected response.
also heard she is outshone by her co-star so we’ll see where that goes.
The more reactions flow in the more clear it is that the film is not happening- especially because initial Twitter reactions tend to be more positive the actual reviews… Still, she could happen but talk of her being outshone is not really good!
LOL, so who is Lopez to Erivo’s Wu?
I didn’t make this observation or see anyone make it – I was just responding with the assumption to cinefile assuming that the reactions they were referring to were real… I still have seen people saying that though. I assume it refers to Monae though?
I’ve seen tweets that singled out some actor whose name escapes me atm as the scene stealer.
I read the first few reviews (THR, Variety, Indiewire) and the early consensus is very judy-esque : OK film elevated by a very strong lead performance. Erivo could still make a dent in the race, trouble for her is that while a leading lady who is already established on the film scene like Zellweger (or Close last year or Moore in 2014 or Blanchett in 2007) can go far with an acclaimed performance in an OK movie, based on precedent (film) newcomers almost always need a strong, critically acclaimed movie to support their Oscar bid and HARRIET doesn’t seem to be heading that way but it is early days so we’ll know more soon enough.
Oh, wow, another race Oscar bait is no more than alright. I’m shocked, shocked I’m telling you.
So that means it’s a threat to win People’s Choice like Just OK?
Right now, with still some doubts in mind, I only see 3 locks in the Best Picture Race:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2.Marriage Story
3. The Irishman
Then we have “Joker”, that for me will happen. And “Just Mercy”, which is a strong contender at TIFF and a traditional Oscar bait.
It means 5 Best Pictures slots filled.
I am betting on a sceneario of 9 nominations, and honestly, I really think the other 4 can be:
6. 1917 (a Sam Mendes epic)
7. The Two Popes (The “Green Book” of the year, if you understand me)
8. The Lighthouse (I really think it will happen)
9. The Report (Political triller with “Michael Clayton” vibes)
Of course, I can miss one or two slots, this year is very strong. We also have “Downton Abbey” (if there are 10, this can be the 10th slot), “Motherless Brooklyn”, “The Farewell” and “A Beautiful Day in The Neighborhood”. I just wish one of these titles could have been released last year, so maybe we had had a different result at the Oscar this year.
Irishman isn’t locked yet since it hasn’t been seen. Scorcese alone didn’t help Silence did he?
Also, Just Mercy is far from strong contender. 64 MC, the highest it got is 75. That doesn’t look like the Picture winner and even nomination is iffy. Hustlers has much better MC (80). It’s only hope is People’s Choice but it looks like critical dud Jojo Rabbit is also banking on that life belt.
“The Irishman” is too big to ignore, even if it is not that good. I am talking about nominations, not wins. So, even if it is not so that good, the film will be nominated a las “Gangs of New York”. “Just Mercy” is one of the favorites at TIFF, represents the afro descendent contingent of the Academy and has a cast with 2 previous Oscar winners. Also, it has basically the exact Metacritic score of “Green Book”.
Yeah, same metascore as Green Book is a great case for Just Mercy to win. Another safe bland Oscar bait about race winning. Enough.
I mean it’s getting exhausting. Most of these movies about race and oppression are the ultimate Oscar bait.
yes and because they are ultimate Oscar bait they are so forgettable except to Film twitter that keeps obsessing about them.
didn’t you learn anything from last year ? as long as actual people who make movies for living as concerned, if they think a movie is well made and touched them ,it will get in.. outdated meta critic “wisdom” is just silly and kinda embarrassing. Just mercy had to hit the voters and thats all it needs.
I have learned. I know that critics and critics awards don’t mean shit til we get to televised precursors. That said, Just OK is a terrible follow up to Green Book because 2 race bait mediocrities winning in a row is fuckin too much and I really hope that it gets rejected. we used to get bucketload of mediocre Brit biopic and now we are getting bucketload of mediocre race baits. Just OK, Harriet, Green Book, Widows, Beale Streets (nobody dared to say that was such a pedestrian movie where nothing ever happened). I have no high expectations from Bonnie&Kaluuya either.
just OK to you..shock jock film-making is very enticing to movie fans like you but to actual people who make movies for living that have seen it all…shock jock film-making is nothing more than a gimmick…green book may not be for you but if you ask hundreds of people who make movies for living its an extremely well made and tight scripted movie. You are showing your bias even without knowing it.
I never said I was not biased but neither are you.
Well, for the first time since it existed, TIFF payed Awards Tribute to Actors. Joaquim Phoenix won the equivalent of Male Actor of the Year( in what was maybe a rehearsal for his Oscar speech). And Meryl Streep won the equivalent of Female Actor of The Year – it will not surprise me, if she gets the fifth slot in the Best Supporting Actress Race. What was very interesting and funny was that Willem Dafoe presented the Award to Phoenix, and the Joker Actor funnily interrupted Dafoe. Phoenix gave him a warm hug and called him “the greatest actor alive.” It would be wonderful and amazing seeing both rewarded on Oscar night.
Phoenix has reviews, every scene is an Oscar clip and he got actor tribute at TIFF. driver has reviews, big show stopping scene (and some other but Sondheim rendition is wowing the crowd) and actor tribute at Telluride Festival. So those actors tributes tell me that their studios are very serious with campaigning.
Streep movie doesn’t have reviews but she’s Streep and Actor tribute at TIFF means serious campaigning. Oh well.
If she can be nominated for “Florence Foster Jenkins”, she can be nominated for anything. She can be nominated with a speech.
Damn
Which movie are we talking for Streep if we are talking Laundromat I think she is lead (if by doesn’t have reviews you mean doesn’t have good reviews) but if we are talking little women, I recently read the book(s?) and if anyone is getting a supporting nomination surely it is Florence Pugh.
It is reported that Streep will go Supporting for The Laundromat.
Oh really? That could totally get her nominated then… When the reviews say “shes great and the parts she is in are good and it loses steam when she isn’t here” that really does bode well for her. I guess we shall see where it all falls.
Laundromat of course. there was a talk that she’d go supporting. no chance for LW.
That will be a very tricky bit of the Little Women campaign. They have 5 (!) legit contenders in supporting actress : Emma Watson, Eliza Scanlen, Florence Pugh, Laura Dern and Meryl Streep. Now they will probably luck out with Dern and Streep who will be most likely in this category with other projects (Marriage Story and The Laundromat, respectively), leaving the three March sisters to deal with. Watson’s role is the least interesting of the three so I think it will be down to Scanlen and Pugh, with latter having the kind of year that could easily result in a nomination indeed. However I would not count out Scanlen for a second : other than breaking through with her scenestealing turn in Sharp Objects she has also recently debuted a highly acclaimed lead role in a festival darling film (Babyteeth), add to that that in Little Women she plays one of the most beloved literary characters of all time, and Pugh suddenly has stiff internal competition to deal with. To be fair, if the film is well-received enough, both could make it, that does happen relatively often in supporting actress. But for now my money would be on Scanlen.
I’m not yet sold on Parasite in Picture. The Academy has a horrible record with nominating Asian films (let alone South Korean films!). And South Korean filmmakers have been at the top of their game for quite some time now and yet there has been little to no interest at the Oscars – even struggling to get into the Foreign Film category when it should have been a slam dunk. Why is Parasite a shoo-in?
Everyone is talking about it. BJH has become loved also.
The whole of Film Twitter is talking about it. But will that translate to the Oscars?
If there’s a film that is “too big to ignore” then it is Parasite. It premiered last May and the buzz is just getting louder and louder as more people get to see it. Seriously, the film is leaving other films from Venice, Telluride and Toronto to dust in terms of acclaim, anticipation and awards buzz.
The Farewell is my favorite so far. My other favorites I’ve seen this year: Birds of Passage, The Burial of Kojo, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Transit & Woman at War.
Still a lot of movies left to see; however, at this point, I’d be so sad if The Farewell isn’t nominated for Best Picture.
Maybe this is just semantics but both birds of passage and woman at war would be widely considered 2018 films. Still they are both brilliant (I really loved woman at war it’s such a unique take on this kind of story).
The farewell and once upon a time in Hollywood are 2 of the 4 films I’ve given 4/4 to this year (along with portrait of a lady on fire and parasite). I need to get around to streaming Koju.
Seeing a private screening of Bombshell on Wednesday and Harriet on Thursday. Excited to see how those turn out to be!
The Farewell, Awkwafina, and Zhao Shuzhen have Grandma Power. Do people love the characters? The Qigong scenes? That is the emotional core of the movie. Who didn’t think and feel about their grandmothers? The family has universal appeal. Asians have been shortchanged in Hollywood. It deserves a BP nomination. My favorite indie film.
I’m definitely rooting for the Farewell and I do think it inhabits a slot that none of the others films listed above do. In a year with Tarantino, Malick, Meirelles, Scorsese, Baumbach — frankly it will be nice to have a film by a young exciting female director.
And yes Zhao Shuzhen all the way! What a tremendously unique role and powerfully played.
so today is the day of Harriet right? Scarlett must be pray for a flop
Why? Jennifer Lopez is winning so it doesn’t matter how Harriet goes.
I really don’t think a stripper thriller is going to win someone an Oscar. Unfortunate truth. She may be nominated but the win isn’t happening… Though maybe critics awards will.. .
I think you are onto something with that remark. it hasn’t come up yet but it will. right now, it’s a celebrated female empowerment movie. in a month or two it’s likely going to be “that stripper flick”. Sad but happens all the time when competition starts heating up and new shiny things outshine older ones.
assuming it really happens lopez will compete for supporting.
easier category to get in for sure.
She will be most likely in supporting. Bit of a category fraud but according to several pundits on Goldderby, could get her not just the nod but maybe even the win. I am skeptical for now although I could definitely see that turning into one of the big surprises of the season.
I’m living for that surprise. I just hope she doesn’t become too thirsty, overdo it and lose her chance.
You are discounting Warner Bros too quickly.
– JUST MERCY is probably winning the TIFF People’s Choice Award. Meaning it’s heading for an assured Best Picture nomination. Jamie Foxx is also a huge thread to win Best Supporting Actor. (Just like Green Book, it’s not about the reviews, forget the reviews. It’s the important subject matter of the film, and the emotional reaction and impact it unlocks in people)
– There’s no way JOKER misses Best Picture. It has the Best Actor winner (Joaquin Phoenix), it appeals to a big faction of the bro Academy, and it will be the highest grossing prestige film in the running.
Still not sold on Just Mercy. That trailer is awful and makes the movie seem like mediocre Oscar bait.
The movie is a mediocre Oscar bait (reviews say so) and that never stopped mediocre Oscar baits from winning.
If this horrible bait gets nominated instead of Parasite I’m gonna strangle the entire Academy.
this horrible bait is not getting nominated over Parasite for they aren’t vying for the same audience of voters. Parasite is safe. It’s in class of its own, prestigious foreign movie that could.
JM is vying for a) WB’s Main Oscar Pony Spot (over Joker) and b) woke movie of the season (take a number and get in line behind already better reviewed Knives Out, Waves, Hustlers, The Farewell and there are still Harriet, Bombshell, and Bonnie&Kaluuya to come).
Winning TIFF People’s Choice doesn’t guarantee winning the picture. That award isn’t as reliable as made out to be.
There’s a way for Joker to miss the Picture. I don’t want it but genre bias (no black cast/director to make the snub unthinkable) may override Venice glory.
Zazie Beetz
is damn fine.
“Winning TIFF People’s Choice doesn’t guarantee winning the picture”
No, but it guarantees a nomination, that’s what he said. Take a look at previous TIFF winners. All of them nominated to Best Picture.
There’s always first for eevrything. but I hear you. so lets hope something else wins.
Wait… it is not that 100% certain that J. Phoenix will win best actor.
I just hope “The Souvenir” will get some recognition, at least for the screenplay, since a Best Pic-nomination seems to be too much to ask for.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4bc1713baa2078c139a3f7ac06a98fad58b0b1023e3e1e3b0b169fe64b748296.jpg
I am going to give this one another chance when I am not half-asleep. Loved Tilda though, especially her last few scenes.
I love that movie so much, and I most likely won’t see a better performance this year than Honor Swinton Byrne’s
Still no release date for Germany, damn! This and Parasite are the ones I´m most desperately waiting for…
A24 may have the same problem as with Netflix on which films they’re going to focus on campaigning since so far they have Waves, The Farewell and The Lighthouse. I think they may go for The Farewell since did great at the box-office.
As for Netflix, if The Irishman proves to be a hit among the critics than there is no way they won’t campaign HARD for that. They’re itching for a BP Oscar and it’s Marty. Marriage Story also looks to be their go to flag bearer as of now with The Two Popes in third spot. It’s a tricky spot to be on because I don’t see them really giving much money for its campaign over The Irishman, again if it proves to be a hit among critics.
Farewell is their only chance for Picture. Lighthouse is too genre and is likely going to be too small (but shouldn’t stop Dafoe). Waves didn’t wow TIFF like it did Telluride and TIFF is more basic a la AMPAS. Plus white director so not exactly Moonlight with straight people (means less urgency to nominate). The Farewell checks a lot of boxes – reviews, diversity in front and behind the camera, buzz still strong. if it was dirt cheap than 16M boxoffice is a win.
Very true about The Farewell. Also hoping The Souvenir will get awards campaigning it deserves.
haven’t seen it but heard great stuff so agreed.
The Two Popes is doing amazing with critics raving about Pryce and Hopkins. Netflix won’t abandon it even if The Irishman proves to be a hit. But I think Scorsese’s movie is going to flop. Looks boring and tired.
I actually thinks it’ll be a greatest hits than another classic based on the trailer but never boring and tired. We’ll never know with Marty. Nobody works with the same artistry and craft like him in Hollywood.
The Laundromat is bombing critically, to become an Oscar contender… 59 Metacritic, not even 7 on IMDB. Seems to be considered good, not great. Jo Jo Rabbit also being divisive… Best Actor seems Phoenix, Leo and probably Banderas, Driver and one extra.
Pryce has a better shot than Banderas.
Pain & Glory is still a big question mark in terms of where it will land at the Oscars. Might be a bigger player than, I suppose, expected, or a smaller one.
Phoenix, Driver, Pryce and DiCaprio seem solid.
I am not sold on “The Two Popes” by any means. If it becomes a bland recreation of what is clearly an obviously razor-blade situation, the film might underperform. Banderas’ Laundromat is not being well received by critics but certainly is going to underline AMPAS members how much range he has and how he has succeeded in every single genre (Animated with Shrek 2, Horror with The Skin I live in, LGTB in Law of Desire, Comedy in Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown, Erotic in Tie me up Tie me down, Drama in Philadelphia, Action in the Zorro franchise, Fantasy in Interview with the Vampire) without ever been rewarded with a win (till this year’s Cannes). Still, I think Pryce AND Banderas will be nominated. It is Bale who I can’t see being the safe bet everyone says. Right now I think the rank for the nom is…
1. Phoenix
2. Leo
3. Driver
4. Banderas (just because is a performance in Spanish)
5. Pryce
they look a solid quintet, if you ask me. I would said that positions 1 to 3 are already locked down and 4 and 5 will depend on what the film critics awards start handing. So far, the ONLY one of the big contenders to have won anything is Banderas, who won Cannes, so he clearly has something to add to his FYC ads.
I will add, there are two kind of people judging Banderas chances for Pain & Glory. Those of us who have actually seen the film (I saw it twice) and those who haven’t. I have seen Leo’s and Banderas and I objectively think Leo is the better actor, but it would be a travesty he won over Banderas for these performances in particular.
I’ve also seen Pain & Glory twice now, and I think that while Banderas gives a better performance than DiCaprio and considering the track record of McCarten biopic lead performances I’ll probably like Banderas’ performance also much more than Pryce’s, I think DiCaprio and Pryce are considerably likelier to be nominated than Banderas. I’m actually not predicting Banderas to get a best actor nomination at the moment. I also doubt the idea that everyone who sees the film will be desparate to award/nominate him, as I’m not sure whether he’ll eventually make for example my personal top 5 for the year either
I sort of feel the same with Pain & Glory as a whole. It is probably going to be a better film than many that will easily get nominated all over the place, but it just doesn’t feel like something the Academy will go wild for, necessarily.
I think the only narrative of the year that can really fight Banderas’ is Phoenix. Pryce would be third in line but he is in direct inner competition for “Best in Show” with Hopkins. Leo’s performance is SO clearly thankful to a film carefully written and directed to enhance him that it becomes distracting way too many times. I still would bet right now for Banderas/Phoenix/Leo/Pryce/Driver and I think everyone else is already a couple of steps behind these five.
… and at the risk of sounding arrogant… it is the same hunch that last year I had with BKKKM and Bohemian Rhapsody and we all know now how right I was in that hunch. Remember, I do not predict, I analyze and my opinion doesn’t come for loving or hating something… I find Pain and Glory, Almodovar’s masterpiece, but it is 4th in my Almodovar favorite films (1. Women on the Verge, 2. Talk to Her and 3. What have I done to deserve this). And I would nominate it, right now, in 3 acting categories… Asier Etxeandía and Penélope Cruz in supporting and Banderas in lead… but I think only Banderas has a real shot. Parasite is stealing the spotlight in some categories (Picture specially) but P&G can easily earn 4 noms (Actor, International Film, Original Screenplay and Score), hence increasing the chances of Banderas winning, if they go Parasite for International and Original and think they would love to give P&G some bone.
… and at the risk of sounding arrogant… it is the same hunch that last year I had with BKKKM and Bohemian Rhapsody and we all know now how right I was in that hunch. Remember, I do not predict, I analyze and my opinion doesn’t come for loving or hating something… I find Pain and Glory, Almodovar’s masterpiece, but it is 4th in my Almodovar favorite films (1. Women on the Verge, 2. Talk to Her and 3. What have I done to deserve this). And I would nominate it, right now, in 3 acting categories… Asier Etxeandía and Penélope Cruz in supporting and Banderas in lead… but I think only Banderas has a real shot. Parasite is stealing the spotlight in some categories (Picture specially) but P&G can easily earn 4 noms (Actor, International Film, Original Screenplay and Score), hence increasing the chances of Banderas winning, if they go Parasite for International and Original and think they would love to give P&G some bone.
Very small (and stupid) correction: Stanley Kubrick did win an Oscar for 2001: a Space Odyssey (best special effects). Doesn’t take away from your argument though, that many celebrated directors went oscar-less during their careers.
As a non-festival attendee and small-time professional film critic, this would be my current Best Picture slate for 2019:
(87 new releases seen as of comment)
…..
— Apollo 11
— The Biggest Little Farm
— Climax
— The Farewell
— The Last Black Man in San Francisco
— Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
— Ying (Shadow)
— Spider-Man: Far From Home
— Toy Story 4
— Us
I couldn’t love you more! Shadow is the most visually arresting film I’ve seen this year. It’s a return to form by Zhang Yimou. I hope his next film One Second beats the Chinese censors and gets a Cannes berth next year.
-Asako I & II (Hamaguchi)
-Bait (Jenkin)
-An Elephant Sitting Still (Hu)
-High-Life (Denis)
-Long Day’s Journey into Night (Bi)
-Midsommar (Aster)
-The Souvenir (Hogg)
-Summer (Serebrennikov)
-Us (Peele)
-Varda by Agnès (Varda)
I feel like these four are definitely getting in: Marriage Story, Parasite, OUATIH, The Two Popes.
Then The Irishman might be out, The Two Popes is doing amazing and I doubt three Netflix movies are getting in.
I agree. Marriage looks solidly in. Parasite in on passion votes. OUATIH seems likely. And The Two Popes has that vibe, too. Amazing that only 4-5 more will get in and there are droves of contenders that “make sense” to getting in.
So after all the handwringing about Netflix by the Spielberg crew last year they might get three films into BP and front runner status in five major categories? Not likely
« Parasite » is also my best of the year so far, but I still much prefer « The Handmaiden » (Park-Chan Wook, 2016), so even though I would be glad for « Parasite » to become a BP nominee, I would be bummed that it should also become at long last the first Korean BP nominee when that feat should have been achieved by « The Handmaiden ». Does that make any sense? I wonder why the buzz is taking so well with « Parasite » while « The Handmaiden » remained almost confidential.
Probably because of the scissoring.
https://media3.giphy.com/media/dPghHslnqEKLC/giphy.gif
The Farewell could very well be the “indie” torch-bearer this year given the rave reviews and box-office clout. But I’m hoping for The Souvenir to not be forgotten come awards season and it’s another Sundance hit that has critical acclaim.
Given the mixed reviews, Jojo Rabbit might be out of contention for BP already with a possible crafts nods. The weirdness of it might turn-off Academy members. Unless it performs well at the box-office and since Comedy category is quite thin as of the moment, it could very well get a Globe nod.
The Golden Lion win for Joker brought it back in the conversation given the arthouse appeal by winning the Venice top prize. Phoenix’s performance also solidifies it as the early favorite along with Dicaprio and Banderas.
Could this also be the most well-received recent edition of TIFF? The winner of Audience Choice will have a lot of bragging rights not to mention the charm for being an assured Oscar BP contender.
My gut feeling tells me neither “Ford vs. Ferrari” nor “A beautiful day in the neighborhood” are safe bets – I don´t think they get in for Best Pic (“Joker” looks more plausible, especially because of the assumed box office result). The Farewell would be amazing, there is always at least one Indie choice in the race (alongside “Parasite”, of course), but it needs the support of the Critics Circle groups in order to get enough Academy members to see it.
Which of those have you seen?
None. I usually get to see that Award candidates just after the ceremony, which makes the prediction stuff a little tricky. The only contender I´ve seen so far is “Once upon a time… in Hollywood”.
My gut feeling is telling me ford v ferrari is definitely getting in. A beautiful day not so much. Considering there was a documentary last year.
I’d say at least one will be in… When was the last time no biopic made the lineup?
Do you think that the Academy going to consider The Farewell an adapted screenplay? I know that it’s not based on the podcast episode and is instead someone expressing the same story in different form but the Academy has made weird screenplay decisions in recent years and this seems like something that they could do very easily. This would also help find at least some content into adapted screenplay, which is incredibly empty at the moment
What about Uncut Gems and The Lighthouse?
We need to stay alert on the “DOWNTON ABBEY” film. 83% on Rotten Tomatoes and 59 at Metacritic. The british contingent of the Academy itself can nominate it. I think it will be hard for them to resist. It is receiving raves from the british critics. And it looks like a traditional period piece Oscar. Maybe this one is THAT (almost) no one saw coming.
I don’t think it is getting raves from British critics. The Guardian, Telegraph and Empire gave it a mixed rating at MC. I also don’t think the Academy is going to go for it given that it started on TV and the film was only a spin-off the series. Then again, if performances are really good then they might get a shot. But even if I’m a fan of the series, I don’t think it’s gonna be Gosford Park level of greatness.
You just know it’s getting nominated for the Best British Film BAFTA.
There is a lot of snobbery about Downton in the UK. Many think of it as a slightly more upmarket soap opera – which I have to agree with.
Just look at its lack of a BAFTA tally to see how it was basically snubbed year after year by the British Academy.
I’ve never seen the series, and I normally love myself some good British period drama with royals and all the rest, but I saw the trailer for this before Pain & Glory and it looked quite horrendous.
Maybe for costume and production design… tv continuations often struggle with Oscars and the reviews haven’t been that great all things considered.
I don’t know if Downton is going to be a Picture nom, but Smith could end Lopez Oscar hopes assuming the latter gets traction with Globes and SAG. I can’t imagine BAFTA, who wouldn’t touch America’s favorite panther with a pole, embracing the stripper flick staring the actress-turned-singer-turned-TV-personality-turned-actress-again. of course, any Downton nom could just be a BAFTA thing and nothing more but Brit block has power with AMPAS so we’ll see.
BAFTAS will surely go for it in the British Film category, but I doubt it can crack the Oscars. It may woo production and costume designers. But I’d say those two categories are probably as far as it goes.
Of the borderline list the only 2 I see actually happening in best picture are Joker and The Farewell (which I just saw by the way – big fan but I do wonder if it may have peaked too soon). I don’t think the buzz on the rest will last.Knives Out is our Widows – too popcorn despite quality, Jojo Rabbit will be too divisive and the positive reviews aren’t positive enough to get it across a la Vice, Ad Astra isn’t really getting the necessary buzz for the space film to get in, The Report peaked way too early and Hustlers will be all about Lopez… So we have 9 solid options so far (I agree with the 7 safest Sasha posted) and then 5 potential inclusions from those unseen so that leaves up with around 14 options (providing those that we haven’t seen all land) for 8-9 slots. Just saying if you are going to keep Jojo Rabbit and Ad Astra there I would put the Laundromat in too (I don’t think it is happening either but it is about as likely as they are).
Generally the films that look like they could make it in now are what we get (though we can’t really be sure which of them will and won’t make it) so I feel like this is it – unless we end up with an unexpected late-comer like Bohemian Rhapsody being pushed in by the public or The Big Short unexpectedly being a thing. Actually in that vein Dark Waters is still unseen, so unlikely but can’t be ruled out yet (as well as I guess Queen and Slim and are there any others?).
The other option is the thing that the critics push that otherwise wouldn’t be there – I don’t see anything that would make sense for this slot but I guess The Lighthouse or Booksmart or Us or Uncut gems? I don’t see any of them happening though – I feel like they will push Parasite or The Farewell or Waves or Marriage Story (or a combination) but they have surprised me before… Then of course just because they push something doesn’t mean it gets in.
And no for those of you still pushing for Pain and Glory isn’t happening in BP. Foreign Language yes Banderas yes, screenplay maybe, but picture no. It has become very clear that Parasite is the ‘it foreign film’ and nothing else is being talked about (as much as I would love for people to be talking about Portrait of a Lady on Fire).
I think that Knives Out problem stems from that, while it’s a deconstruction of white privilege or whatever climate-friendly phrase, it’s still a movie with overwhelmingly white cast (99%) and a token black who was given nothing to do (hence no critical notices). Once critics move out of Honeymoon Phase (which is why they are now backing up a shallow stripper dramedy – Honeymoon Phase finds few faults with movies while it lasts), the whiteness is gonna become a point of contention because no movie escaped some sort of backlash and this one is easy target for there are 14 white actors in important roles and only 1 black and if anyone thinks Ana de Armas, a literal Snow White lookalike, isn’t white for her Spanish name, I’ll laugh but ok, bring the number down to 13 and you still have something Film Twitter will harp on eventually. Point being, once Backlash season hits, no movie is safe and question is only who gets dragged for what, whether dragging happens early enough to blow over or at the worst possible time, and whether it will have an impact (La La land) or none at all (Green Book).
Someone ought to tell the critics that Jojo Rabbit is supposed to be a Best Pic candidate cause right now it sits at a 53% on Rottentomatoes. And I don’t see Ad Astra having any viable chance either.
Atm, it looks like Lopez is happening in Supporting and Hustlers may sneak in Picture like Hidden Figures. But that’s atm. What happens in upcoming months when memory gets shorter and competition more stacked remains to be seen. But Lopez reviews are strong, definitely stronger than her movie’s, though the movie is doing surprisingly well with critics.
I am so here for the surprising crowd pleasers this season: Hustlers, Knives Out, maybe Joker. But Parasite and The Lighthouse are the ones for me.
I hope from my heart that “The Lighthouse” get the nomination and it helps Dafoe wins the so deserved Best Supporting Actor Oscar.
Sorry, but Brad Pitt has supporting actor sewed up!
parasite is a done deal though. Everyone predicts it for Picture and Director, shock would be if it missed.
It has not been decided yet if she will run lead or supporting. Some say lead, others, supporting. But honestly, this is a case we have to wait and see. We already had this kind of buzz in the past that didn’t get the Oscar nom: Regina Hall in Support the Girls, for example. And while it can do well with the progressist contingent of the Academy, I don’t see it doing good with the older contingent and the european contingent. Let’s wait and see.
difference is that nobody saw Support the Girls while this is going to hit #1 this weekend or at least challenge IT in its second week for the spot. Performances like this, by “unusual” contenders profit from boxoffice visibility. At least Globes and CC should bite.
Kubrick won an Oscar. For 2001’s visual effects, which, you know… it’s *something*, I guess.
That was a total compromise submission. Douglas Trumbull got screwed out of an Oscar.
If anything this year could be weird as hell, awards wise. I’m absolutely here for it.