Do we have our Best Picture winner in Telluride or Toronto? Has it already been seen? The last film to win Best Picture without being plucked from Telluride, Toronto, Venice, or Cannes was Martin Scorsese’s The Departed, which was released in October 2006. This year, Quentin Tarantino, like Scorsese, has a grand slam lined up with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – he’s collected a lot of cred in his career and has never won Best Director. That’s a lot like Scorsese in 2006, though to a slightly lesser degree: Scorsese had Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, and Goodfellas, while Tarantino has Reservoir Dogs, Pulp Fiction, and Inglourious Basterds. I mean, Hitchcock and Kubrick are two who never won any Oscars, so take it all with a grain of salt but … cred is cred. Just saying.
Closing out Telluride, Michael Patterson at Michael’s Telluride Blog asked the attendees to rate the films they saw. First, the attendees queried:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
J. Don Birnam-Jorge T/SplashReport.com
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Marshall Flores/Awards Daily
Mark Johnson/Awards Circuit
Gary Kramer/Salon
Scott Menzel/We Live Entertainment
Kenny Miles/We Live Entertainment
Matt Neglia/Next Best Picture
Eugene Novikov/Rotten Tomatoes
John Rhodes/Screencraft
Christopher Schiller/ScriptMag.com
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
Chris Willman/Variety
Anonymous
And next, the films stacked up this year, with Parasite topping them all (not surprisingly):
1) Parasite (4.75)
2) The Two Popes (4.42)
3) Marriage Story (4.40)
4) Waves (4.29)
5) A Hidden Life (4.20)
6) Portrait of a Lady on Fire (4.17)
7) Ford v Ferrari (4.11)
8) The Report (3.87)
9) Pain and Glory (3.83)
10) Uncut Gems (3.78)
11) Motherless Brooklyn (3.58)
12) The Climb (3.50)
13) Judy (3.13)
14) The Aeronauts (3.08)
15) The Assistant (2.75)
I can’t really argue with this list! Michael tallied the list of high scores since he started tracking these and here is how it came out: Best Picture nominees in bold, winners have a +.
1) Moonlight (4.87) (16)+
2) Parasite (4.75) (19)
3) Roma (4.73) (18)
4) Birdman (4.72) (14)+
5) 12 Years a Slave (4.70-tie) (13)+
6) Central Park Five (4.70-tie) (12)
7) Foxcatcher (4.63) (14)
8) La La Land (4.58) (16)
9) Argo (4.50-tie) (12)+
9) The Shape of Water (4.50-tie) (17)
10) Son of Saul (4.44) (15)
So, Parasite is a film that will land number ones quite easily and may make it into Best Picture.
What might win the audience award at Toronto? Might Parasite win there? That would be kind of shocking but honestly … people who see it, love it. Green Book won the audience award last year when everyone thought it would go to, say, A Star Is Born. Toronto’s People’s Choice Award isn’t always a pathway to Best Picture: Green Book, 12 Years a Slave, The King’s Speech, Slumdog Millionaire, and American Beauty are the only films that have won both in the past twenty years. It’s not exactly a reliable precursor, but it is interesting. Contenders for that prize this year appear to be Waves, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Jojo Rabbit, Knives Out, or something that hasn’t shown yet.
Here is a quick and dirty look at the films I think are looking good for the Best Picture race right now, but are, by no means, guaranteed. This is based on the film, how it played, and the “in it to win it” publicity team behind it. Remember, to be nominated for Best Picture, a film needs at least 200 number one votes, i.e. landing at “favorite film of the year” for 200 people. That means a divisive film gets in for nominations a lot more easily than it does for winning on a preferential ballot:
Safest bets right now:
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Sony
Marriage Story – Netflix
The Two Popes – Netflix
Ford v Ferrari – Fox
Waves – A24
Parasite – Neon
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood – Sony
Borderline – depends on several factors but benefit from being number one films:
Joker – WB
The Farewell – A24
Jojo Rabbit – Fox Searchlight
Ad Astra – Fox
The Report – Amazon
Hustlers – STX
Knives Out – Lionsgate
Films still not seen:
The Irishman – Netflix
Harriet – Focus Features
Little Women – Sony
1917 – Universal
Bombshell – Lionsgate
A couple of things to note: Netflix isn’t getting three films in for Best Picture. There is just no way. Marriage Story is going to be pushed along with The Irishman, but The Two Popes is going to be beloved too. Maybe two will get in, but not all three.
We will catch up on Best Actor and Best Actress when the festival comes to a close.
