The one deceptive thing about film criticism now is that we look at the consensus view or an aggregate score, rather than what film criticism really is (or supposed to be) about: a deeper analysis of the film, its impact, and its worth. The binary thumbs up, thumbs down approach has turned film criticism into a conclusion-based model, which defeats its own purpose. The same is true of any consensus vote, whether it’s the Oscars or Toronto’s People’s Choice Award. A consensus vote is really just the movie most people agree on as good or even great. Which generally makes it harder to award films that ultimately stand the test of time, like Citizen Kane, Vertigo, Psycho or Jaws. But the Oscar race is a game of predicting, and being able to read the consensus makes playing that game a little easier than trying to guess what is the greatest film of the year, or what will stand the test of time. We know that is impossible in the moment.
Last year’s Green Book win ties to Toronto in a way no Best Picture winner has since 2013’s 12 Years a Slave, which won the People’s Choice Award before winning Best Picture. Both Green Book and 12 Years also won the Producers Guild, another consensus vote but this time on a preferential ballot – showing strength with both a “most votes wins” ballot and a “majority wins” ballot. 12 Years shared the PGA with Gravity, make that year extremely hard to predict. Last year wasn’t that hard to predict if you remembered one of the fundamental rules of Oscar watching: a movie that is going to win in another feature film category won’t also win Best Picture. Why? Because voters like to spread the wealth, especially so with an expanded ballot. With eight or nine films up for Best Picture, do you really think they’re going to like a movie enough to give it Best Picture in TWO categories? Ain’t gonna happen. Or at least it hasn’t happened yet.
As far as this year goes, what popped in the Venice/Telluride/Toronto trifecta? Do we have any sure bets? It’s hard to say. It always seems like we do.
Let’s see how last year’s lineup finished the year and from where:
Green Book – TIFF (audience award)
Black Panther – studio release, February
BlackKklansman – Cannes
The Favourite – Venice/Telluride/TIFF
Roma – Venice/Telluride/TIFF
A Star Is Born – Venice/TIFF
Bohemian Rhapsody – studio release, November
Vice – late breaker, December
Let’s look at the year before:
The Shape of Water – Venice/Telluride/TIFF
Call Me By Your Name – Sundance
Get Out – Sundance
Dunkirk – studio release, July
Three Billboards – Venice/TIFF (audience award)
Darkest Hour – Telluride/TIFF
Lady Bird – Telluride/TIFF
Phantom Thread – late breaker, December
The Post – late breaker, December
And the year before that:
Moonlight – Telluride/TIFF
Hell or High Water – Cannes
Arrival – Venice/Telluride/TIFF
Hacksaw Ridge – Venice/TIFF
La La Land – Venice/Telluride/TIFF (audience award)
Lion – TIFF
Manchester by the Sea – Sundance
Fences – late breaker, December
Hidden Figures – late breaker, December
There is no pattern that is emerging at the moment that I can see. It seems like there is a mix of film festivals, studio releases, and late breakers, which are also studio releases but they come at the end of the year, which is how studios used to introduce “Oscar movies” before the awards calendar changed in 2004.
There will be two different types of films heading into the race. Those that are uplifting, about heroes and happy endings:
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Cannes
Marriage Story – Venice/Telluride/TIFF
Waves – Telluride/TIFF
Ford v Ferrari – Telluride/TIFF
The Two Popes – Telluride/TIFF
Knives Out – TIFF
Just Mercy – TIFF
Harriet – TIFF
Jojo Rabbit – TIFF
And those that taxi to the darker side, which are traditionally harder to count on in the Oscar race but might signal a shift forthcoming:
Joker – Venice/TIFF
Uncut Gems – Telluride/TIFF
The Irishman – New York
The Lighthouse – Cannes/TIFF
Parasite – Cannes (Palme d’Or)/Telluride/TIFF
There are so many other films left to see, like Little Women and 1917, that it’s hard to draw a complete picture. It’s hard to draw even a partial picture, knowing that hype from these festivals evaporates very quickly.
If I had to guess, I think Best Picture would be in this order of most likely:
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Marriage Story
The Two Popes
Waves
Parasite
Ford v Ferrari
Not seen yet:
Little Women
1917
The Irishman
Borderline:
Uncut Gems
Knives Out
Joker
Netflix factor: Will they put three Netflix movies in Best Picture? Doubtful. But which two out of the three? Hard to say right now.
Recent TIFF People’s Choice winners that won Best Picture:
2008 – Slumdog Millionaire
2010 – The King’s Speech
2013 – 12 Years a Slave
2018 – Green Book
Recent People’s Choice winners that were nominated for Best Picture:
2009 – Precious
2012 – Silver Linings Playbook
2014 – The Imitation Game
2015 – Room
2016 – La La Land
2017 – Three Billboards
If I had to guess what wins People’s Choice this year, I might say either Marriage Story or Waves.
This award don’t matter. At the end of the day jojo rabbit is still 100th movie about fricking Hitler. No one is going to talk about jojo rabbit when they talk about Hitler. There are 100 other movies made about the same subject matter. Ford v Ferrari is going all the way because Disney/fox know what they have. They are playing the LA ground game. Hollywood is thirsty for old fashioned kinetic movies made on an epic scale and this movie will be right in their wheelhouse. Lot of these little seen indie movies will be watched by 10 people.
Knives Out will win the People’s Choice Awards today. I watched it last night and it’s entertaining, smart and well directed.
Sta Wars YTubers will explode.
Told you Ford vs Ferrari wasn’t going anywhere. Bye bye
And Just Bait.
this season’s going to be insufferable, though. Jojo is winning. Waititi is going to turn up his already overdone PoC Jew shtick beyond nth degree. he knows this is the AMPAS jam (Holocaust that looks Zoomer edgy) and he’s gonna milk it dry.
You dont know anything. Ford v Ferrari team know what they have. Most of your shitty indie movies will be watched by 10 people and die. You think they are idiots to send it to all festivals without knowing what they have ? they already probably screened the movie to lot of directors and producers and once they know they have a shot with this movie they positioned as such and let ad astra die in september. I know your hatred is coming from the fact that lot of artsy fartsy crap you watch will die a painful death even if they win oscars. Marriage story is dying because its a piece of crap netflix movie already. So its already dead in my book.
Are you the one who said the same thing about vice last year ? look where that went
People’s Choice Award: Jojo Rabbit
First runner-up: Marriage Story
Second runner-up: Parasite
All these tree are getting nominated for BP.
OK, Marriage Story and Parasite save this considerably. Bye bye Just Bait.
I really started to believe that Jojo Rabbit is out of the Best Picture race, but apparently it’s not. A great year for Scarlett!
She’s the frontrunner now.
It’s eerie how strangely these mirror last year’s three of
PCA: Green Book (relatively badly reviewed crowdpleaser)
First runner-up: Beale Street (well-reviewed American indie drama -> that eventually misses Oscar nomination?)
Second runner-up: Roma (foreign-language film by an auteur which is one of the buzziest titles of the year, winner of Venice (or for Parasite, Cannes)).
Marriage Story is not missing a nom, not even on the same planet with Beale that was sophomore slump for Jenkins but nobody dared say it. Marriage Story is called Baumbach’s best ever and audience really responds to it unlike Beale Slog.
Well, the audience clearly liked it enough to give it first runner-up last year.
That audience. They are not all audiences and Beale tanked in its release. Word spread it was a slog where nothing happened.
There are many great films out there where “nothing happens”. 🙂 But to each their own, I guess.
Jojo rabbit won!
FUCK… I was right.
called it
Well yeah congrats you two were right.
I was saying before the movie was even shown that it strike me as the winner for older voters would love Holocaust genre resurrection (that The Reader effectively killed) while younger crowd would like wokeness. so unless early frontrunner backlash doesn’t kill it like other movies that peaked too early, this is the movie to beat. critics are becoming more irrelevant. rules are changing. Once Picture/Director split was almost unheard of, now it’s almost a rule. Same is happening with critical reception. movies deemed just OK are winning over proclaimed masterpieces.
Waiting to get to the big one.
NETPAC Award: 1982 (dir. Oualid Mouaness)
They started..
10 min. bracing for horrible baits to get resurrected.
So what won Toronto?
its tomorrow 10 am est i think
It’s 10:21 am Toronto time. Any news?
They are announced around 1:30 PM est.
A little over an hour to go.
10 more minutes
my bad..its at 1:30 pm..just checked website
no worries. it’s soon enough (just over an hour)
Marriage Story is not winning Toronto’s People’s Choice Award. The award isn’t for the CRITICS choice, or which film critics are buzzing about at Toronto. It’s a PEOPLE’S choice vote. Uplifting, crowd-pleasing films win Toronto. Uplifting that films, films the average Joe can watch with his family and they’ll like it or love it. Marriage Story is not an uplifting, crowd-pleasing film. It’s performance at Telluride should confirm that.
The Two Popes.
Just Mercy
Waves
Also, every People’s Choice winner was not for only nominated for Best Picture, but also WON an Oscar. And 7 of them won acting Oscars.
So whichever film wins TORONTO, is heading for an Oscar win.
“So whichever film wins TORONTO, is heading for an Oscar win.”
So lets hope that Just Lifetime isn’t among Top 3. There’s award for that kind of movie, Daytime Emmy’s or something.
I guess that if you have not seen Parasite, you may be predicting another movie to be the People’s Choice. Those who HAVE seen Parasite, KNOW that of course it will be the winner. There is no alternative.
I hope you are right for right now the biggest threat are middling baits.
Well, I’ve seen it and there are many movies in Toronto that deserve this win more than “Parasite”. 🙂
Though it is very good. But also extremely overhyped and overrated. 🙂
Agree. Parasite is good but one the most overrated movies of recent times. It gave me a strong feeling of ‘dejà vu’ as I was expecting something… more extreme and wild. Many directors, from Buñuel to Park Chan-Wook, have treated the same themes of Parasite in a similar way (if not better).
The only same themes from Parasite that have been tackled by Park’s films are fraud, isolation and class disparity, and I must say both Bong and Park have tackled these two themes differently. Bong took these themes with sharp wit that cut and reek. I love both filmmakers but where as Park tackled these themes straightforwardly, Bong uses mystery to build on it. Class disparity on the other hand, has been prevalent in contemporary Korean cinema. If there’s a Korean filmmaker’s work that’s closest to Parasite then it is Im Sang-soo’s (another personal favorite). Then again they both have different perspectives and point-of-views in themes hence different treatments in their films.
What Bong showcased in Parasite was a masterful command of all the aspects of cinema which to be honest in a less assured hand, wouldn’t work. Some may argue that it’s not the best (which is subjective) but general consensus is that it’s good if not the best, and the level and quality of entertainment is something we don’t get in Hollywood films these days. The buzz should have dwindled down by now since it’s been 4 months since it premiered in Cannes but the more people see it, the more they talk about it.
45th anniversary Saturn Award winners announced earlier tonight. Endgame experiences the joy of six, and a massive upset in Best Director.
COMIC-TO-MOTION PICTURE: Avengers: Endgame
SCI-FI FILM: Ready Player One
FANTASY FILM: Toy Story 4
HORROR FILM: A Quiet Place
ACTION/ADVENTURE: Mission: Impossible – Fallout
THRILLER: Bad Times at The El Royale
ANIMATED: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (goddamn….)
INDEPENDENT FILM: Mandy
INTERNATIONAL FILM: Burning Well
ACTOR: Robert Downey Jr., Avengers: Endgame
ACTRESS: Jamie Lee Curtis, Halloween
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Josh Brolin, Avengers: Infinity War
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Zendaya, Spider-Man: Far From Home
YOUNGER ACTOR: Tom Holland, Spider-Man: Far From Home
DIRECTOR: Jordan Peele, Us
SCREENPLAY: A Quiet Place
PRODUCTION DESIGN: Avengers: Endgame
EDITING: Avengers: Endgame
MUSIC: Mary Poppins Returns
COSTUME DESIGN: Aladdin
MAKEUP: Avengers: Endgame
VISUAL EFFECTS: Avengers: Endgame
No wonder they are irrelevant. How the hell is Holland Younger Actor? They just had to give him something so they pushed him in a category for newcomers even though he’s far from one. It should have been one of US kids who had dual roles. Jamie Lee Curtis is better than Lupita or Blunt? OK. JLC was good but Lupita was on another level and Blunt in A Quiet Place had THAT scene.
Why did Brolin win for a movie that came out last year? Hilarious. So they wanted to give it to Thanos but felt that Endgame didn’t give him much to do and switched to Infinity War even though that was eligible in 2018. Bahahahaha, oh boy. Zendaya won for Euphoria basically for she had nothing of note in FFH except being a cute love interest. Scarlett in Endgame was much better, or they could give it to Zoe Saldana fro Infinity War. Etc. Just ridiculous.
As weird as it sounds, it’s sometimes refreshing to see the general public awards out there. They’re by no means judging on the same caliber as the guilds per say but these seem way more relevant to the basic movie-goers/streamers. Wouldn’t ever expected JL Curtis to win but NGL I saw that movie with my brother on his bday cause he really wanted to see it and I’m charmed she won.
What the hell is their qualifying dates? How could AVENGERS: IW AND ENDGAME both be eligible for awards at the same time? Not that i’m complaining that they won things.
It was a 16 month qualifying period. Saturn nominees are usually announced in February, with the awards in June every year, but there was a change of producers and ultimately, changes in the nomination announcement and awards dates (mid July and Friday night, respectively).
This year’s eligibility period includes projects publicly released from 3/1/18 through 7/7/19.
Found this People’s Choice tidbit from the tiff reddit thread:
“the voting is based on the % of people that voted for a film. So even if a film has 1 screening and 75% of people vote for it would be the same if 5 screens had 75% of the votes. Technically, it could be a disadvantage to have more screenings as not as many people may vote or you get more people who aren’t likely to vote.”
Maybe Parasite is taking People’s Choice then, I am yet to hear a negative word associated with Parasite.
TIFF is numero uno in the oscar game for sure as the BP race is concerned. Have been for sometime and that won’t change this year either.
That’s why I dread their Audience Award.
I’m having this awful feeling Jojo Rabbit is winning. I really hope I’m wrong.
Same. Absolutely the same. I feel that TIFF’s gonna resurrect that corpse.
So, I got a ticket to see The King at the London Film Festival at the start of October. Surprisingly, I will be amongst only the second wave of people to see it, after Venice. (It will then have a limited US theatrical release from Oct 11, followed by the Netflix general release on Nov 1.)
I don’t understand why it isn’t playing at TIFF. My guess is they avoided TIFF because that’s where Beautiful Boy launched last year and picked up weak reviews — however, if they had looked closely at the reviews, they should have seen that Chalamet’s supporting performance got raves, even if the film didn’t. I think Netflix expected this film to get raves from all the British critics at Venice, followed by London, which would then boost it in North America. The opposite happened. The US critics were unanimous in praising his performance, while a majority of Brits (not all) hated it. Netflix has clearly badly botched the roll-out of this film.
I have a mid-Atlantic brain, as a Brit who has lived for several years in the US, so I will be trying to figure out this strange disparity. The Brits are probably right that he is not kingly. Wasn’t that the filmmakers’ intention, though? It must have been, since at the press conference, the actor compared the character to “unsuitable” modern leaders who have also inherited their positions. (Was he talking about Kim Jong Un? Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al Saud? George W Bush? He didn’t specify.) Henry V doesn’t look especially regal in his portrait. There is no reason why a hereditary leader, as opposed to an elected one, should be an impressive person, so I feel the Brits have been too attached to Shakespeare’s and Olivier’s supremely noble portrayals, which were created for propaganda purposes during the constraints of Tudor rule and WWII.
David Ehrlich and Richard Lawson complained that the transition happened too quickly. That criticism sounds legit to me, so I will see if I agree with it. It will be hard to watch it with an open mind after all I have read, but I will try.
Thanks for your great input! is the movie going to hit awards season next year? It would be a suicide to try this year as it’s very stacked in Actor categories.
As its US release is scheduled for 11 October in limited, I’m pretty sure it’s going to be eligible this year. And well, Best Actor looks really quite packed right now, but the season is long, and all sorts of twists and turns can happen. A surprise citation from NYFCC, NBR or LAFCA can propel anything into the conversation. (I’m skeptical that that will happen to Chalamet this year though.)
Very true.
I am not predicting Chalamet either, but after a careful analysis of the reviews so far, I am convinced that once the film is seen by more US critics, its Metascore will creep up from 67 to the mid 70s. This would put it above buzzed films such as Joker, currently at 70, and Ford v Ferrari, currently at 72.
You might be right about that, but it feels a bit like its moment has passed? As you correctly put it elsewhere, its festival run is basically over (except for London, but that doesn’t really count in terms of the Oscar race) so if it’s not in the conversation now, I’m not sure it ever will be.
It does feel like its moment has passed, and I agree that London won’t help it at all, but I note that it is still mostly unseen to North American critics. Only a small handful saw the film in Venice (and they mostly liked it and unanimously liked the lead performance). There could be a relaunch of sorts on Oct 11, when it opens in NY and LA, IF Netflix decides to make an effort.
hey guys, its been buggin me for days now. Is The Good Liar out of the races, postponed to 2020 or sth?Because if its not, we are all forgetting Mc Kellen and Mirren.
Di Caprio will be snubbed
New screenings of Parasite, The Two Popes and Waves have just been added so I’m going with one of these winning.
If I had to bet for the winners on Oscar night, right now, with what we know so far…
Picture: Once upon a time in Hollywood
Director: Quentin Tarantino, Once upon a time in Hollywood
Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Actress: Reneè Zellwegger, Judy
Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt, Once upon a time in Hollywood
Supporting Actress: Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Original Screenplay: Once upon a time in Hollywood
Adapted Screenplay: Joker
Animated: Toy Story 4
why did you leave out animated…i would choose once upon a time in hollywood for animated as well…thats the only way someone can justify the lunacy of your comment.
We could never be that lucky.
Some of the commenters on this site don’t understand how the TIFF People’s Choice Award works. No audience member is asked to choose their favorite film. They submit a single vote for every film they saw and liked. I usually submit votes for somewhere between 5 and 10 of the 30-35 films I see at TIFF each year. This year, Parasite, Lighthouse, Marriage Story, Ford v Ferrari, Two Popes, Jojo Rabbit, The Rest of Us all got a vote. I may add Seberg and Joker.
So if anyone believes that TIFF audience members choose “middlebrow,” it’s really the nature of the vote. it’s literally the film that the most people liked (whether or not it was anyone’s absolute favorite). That said; the TIFF audience is a Toronto audience. More diverse than any North American film fest I’ve attended (certainly much more than Telluride, but also slightly more so than AFI, Tribeca, NYFF)
I have no predictions regarding the winner. It’s always a surprise to me.
Please don’t add Seberg. I don’t want KStew to happen. It’s bad enough she’s returning to mainstream cinema. why couldn’t she stay with indies which are her forte anyway?
That said, it seems to me that people are sleeping on Jojo and that it could take the Award or at least crack Top 3. Sucks cause it sounds like it’s just a fun but safe movie and not something exceptional.
My predictions for the possible winner of TIFF People’s Choice Award this year are:
WAVES directed by Trey Edward Shults
MARRIAGE STORY directed by Noah Baumbach
PARASITE directed by Bong Joon Ho
I will be really surprised if Parasite won’t be atleast a runner up.
But my other guesses based on social media reactions are: Knives Out, Marriage Story, Joker, The Two Popes
When do we find out the winner?
Sunday morning Toronto time I believe – they are announcing it on social media
Thanks!!
Isn’t there is also a ceremony where they announce the winners?
No they cancelled it yet this year to do it on social media (there’s a Hollywood reporter article about it that I tried to link here but it stopped me for some reason).
Interesting. Nearly every other festival has an awards ceremony at the end.
Every other year TIFF has too but i dunno they decided to chanhe it this year
Those late breakers are kind of problematic, huh? They seem like stuffed crust cheese inspirational biopics that slip right into the circuit. I feel like the award season gaunlet would typically devour them otherwise.
My top3 guesses are THE TWO POPES, KNIVES OUT or WAVES although I wouldn’t put it past them to go for something super feel-good like A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD.
It would be quite the thing if after the Golden Lion, somehow JOKER got this one, as well, but it probably won’t happen, the audience award tends to go to films that make people feel good and while I’m sure Joker has many excellent qualities, “feel-good” isn’t – nor should be – one of them.
My dark horse pick is either HUSTLERS or JOJO RABBIT. Former would be a legit pick, it will be officially a critically acclaimed moneymaker by Sunday while victory of the latter would be just a big fuck you to the critics community that probably won’t happen even though audience reports, in stark contrast with reviews, seemed to be unanimously positive.
JOJO RABBIT has an approval rating of 73% from 47 reviews at Rotten Tomatoes, which means critics are “kinda” loving the movie. It’s an universally acclaimed movie but it seems those who love the movie REALLY LOVE the movie and those are the people who vote. You can’t vote against a movie, so I’m predicting JOJO RABBIT will get a runner-up spot for the People’s Choice Award of TIFF, at least.
I am not going to lie. I am holding out for a (surprise) Joker win at Toronto to send everybody into orbit again about its Best Picture chances.
How has Jojo Rabbit yoyoed itself back into the conversation after that first round of appalling reviews?
Divided reviews* sure it has bad reviews but it also has great reviews… People are just divided on it.
Waititi fanboys. The movie isn’t even divisive, it’s just alright. But his fanboys are putting all those Top 5 TIFF polls with Jojo on it so it’s weaseling its way back in.
Its IMDB is 7.3 from almost 300 reviews. Joker has 9.6 from over 12K. marriage Story 7.8 from 400, Just Mercy 6.0 from just over 100, Ford vs Ferrari 8.1 from over 300, etc. Shockingly, Knives Out isn’t open for audience reviews or I can’t see it?
“It’s hard to draw even a partial picture knowing that hype from these festivals evaporates very quickly.”
This is the truth that people tend to overlook. The moment of the biggest hype is now, not 2 months later when it really matters. By that time, many currently super hot movies will cool off considerably for various reasons, while new hot things may emerge. And festival is the time where too many movies are equally very hot at the same time, so it’s hard to filter pretenders from contenders.
Not a festival anecdote, but still a hype drop one. I remember back in March-May 2018, Black Panther was looking like it could get 4 above the line noms (Picture, Director, Adapted, Supporting Actor) because buzz (reviews, boxoffice, think-pieces were deafening). I think that around October, some were even thinking it could win the whole she-bang for there was confusion which movie was really the frontrunner. By December, Director and Supporting Actor dreams were crushed, and Adapted dream soon followed. So in the end, it scored only 1 above the line nom (Picture) and less below the line than predicted. Point being, white hot hype doesn’t last and gets easily replaced. It’s the ability to stay in conversation and reinvent interest that matters. Some movies do it and get in for everything they aimed at or more (so called overperforming with noms), while others don’t and therefore keep missing categories they previously thought could crack.
I’d honestly go with almost anything, though, just please not Just Mercy.
ha ha same. I think Jojo will take it. Waititi fanboys are in full force on twitter.
Hate Green Book mainly because this medicore film ended up being the last one I watched with my mom. She was the one that raised me on classic films.
I’m thinking:
Marriage Story
Knives Out
Parasite
Knives Out clearly was the most fun film. Parasite I’m yet to find one person who didn’t like it. But, Marriage Story has almost unanimous praise from audiences and probably had the most screenings at TIFF which could lend to more votes.
looks like we’ll have our answer very shortly. “In lieu of Toronto’s planned ceremony that had been set for Sunday, the festival’s Platform prize and the FIPRESCI awards will be handed out today, the festival told Deadline.”
Which means the movie with the early hype will win. I’m know predicting either Knives Out or Waves will win.
The audience prize will still be announced on Sunday, just via social media rather than at a ceremony.
that’s what I thought so why is deadline reporting it’ll be announced today? https://deadline.com/2019/09/tiff-toronto-international-film-festival-cancels-awards-ceremony-1202732865/
How shortly? Aren’t we getting the results on Sunday?
So about the “will they put 3 Netflix films in” thing – remember voters aren’t really choosing several nominees each they are voting for 5 each and if their number 1 isn’t being voted for by heaps of people (or very few people) the rest of their rankings don’t matter – so if 5% vote for 2 popes and a different 5% for marriage story and a different 5% for the Irishman then (and there could be some overlap between them if say Oriahman gets 15%). It’s easy to think no they won’t give 3 Netflix films noms in terms of someone won’t put 3 Netflix films on their ballot but that isn’t really how it works.
I think it’s more that Netflix won’t give all 3 the same push, and something will get left out as a result. Not “Oh noes, 3 Netflix movies? Not gonna vote for all 3 even though they happen to be my faves of the year”.
Netflix has a lot of money though… Giving 3 films all big pushes shouldn’t be hard! Pushing all 7 of their potential contenders would be a stretch but 3 should be fine for them!
They should really spend that money on adding to their library. Not on Oscar campaigns. Same thing with Amazon.
I mean, yeah but awards campaigning is a tiny fraction of Netflix’s budget and they are making a lot of movies so it’s not too bad… Also one could argue that making awards winning films will convince more people to buy Netflix so could be cost neutral anyway
Their library keeps shrinking. Most people don’t subscribe to Netflix for there Oscar Bait films. Actually the two most streamed titles are Friends and Office which they are going to loose soon. Those two shows are in syndication you can watch them for free.
It’s not about money as it is about pushing the movies that can actually factor in the race. I think that Sasha is right in that 3 wouldn’t.
But what is the reason that they can’t push 3 then? If it’s not that voters will resist 3 Netflix films (because how would that work) and it’s not about money then what prevents them from campaigning and getting 3 films in? They have a big team focussed on awards campaigning so I really can’t see what could possibly prevent that (other than simply what the movies are and how much people like them and it’s yet to be seen where these films are actually going but he 3 all look pretty good right now).
then they’ll push all 3. if, as you say, they can then they will. I just don’t want some people to fall off because of it.
I’d say the following: from what I’ve understood, Taback is working on Netflix’s Oscar campaigns. Her attention will probably be more focused on Marriage Story and if it’s acclaimed, The Irishman, and hence the main weight of the campaign for The Two Popes will be left on someone else, maybe someone less experienced and probably at least someone who has less impressive a track record, and hence the notion that a film that might barely get nominated even if it had the full weight of Netflix behind it would be a confident choice with what might be Netflix’s secondary campaign unit seems less than certain
Yeah I actually said this exact thing a few days back about the King but that was a reference to Taback can’t lead 7 campaigns… But I totally think she can lead 3. But I dunno I wonder whether we will actually find out how they are planning it there.
I agree with you. I believe THE TWO POPES will be campaigned hard for Best Actor (Jonathan Pryce) and Best Supporting Actor (Anthony Hopkins). Maybe Best Original Screenplay, but the race feels “full” for that category already. MARRIAGE STORY will be campaigned for all the categories for sure (I see, Best Picture, Diretor, Lead Actor – Driver, Lead Actress – Johansson, Supporting Actor – Alda?, Supporting Actress – Dern, Original Screenplay, Editing and Cinematography). Netflix gave a lot of money for the production of THE IRISHMAN, so I believe they were expecting for a movie they could campaigned for all categories also, but let’s wait for the reviews – and in case Scorsese’s latest doesn’t get rave reviews, I see Netflix pushing THE TWO POPES
I’ve read that The Two Popes is visually stunning so Production Design and Cinematography too.
Agreed, Two Popes are very well poised to get in for a lot of above the line categories.
Based on the buzz alone, I’m going to predict Knives Out to win the TIFF People’s Choice.
Comedies rarely win.
Green Book was, in large part, a comedy. Comedies with “important subject matter” can certainly win.
I don’t agree. It was Drama for me.
It will be interesting if Jo Jo Rabbit happens to be extremely divisive and score enought #1s to sneak into Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actress and Supporting Actor…
Tiff peoples choice? Green Book, Silver Linings Playbook, arguably 3 Billboards?
Knives Out seems to be straight up comedy with not too many emotions and the audience likes it emotional and heartfelt. And I don’t consider those three comedies but dramas with some comedic elements.
I agree. They usually pick dramedys not comedies.
The Two Popes fits the pattern better than Knives Out. More emotional.
I mean, I agree? I was saying in another thread that Two Popes would be my prediction but tiff peoples choice goes all over the place so you just can’t know.
I didn’t do actual research about this, but aren’t high profile comedies generally rare at TIFF and similar festivals? That would probably explain at least part of why straight up comedies don’t usually win.
well, buzz is twitter buzz which isn’t necessarily what silent majority thinks. I’ve no problem with that win over something as mundane as Just Mercy which others expect to take the prize.
Very possible. If that happens i will rethink its awards possibilities!
Knives Out could make a Comedy GG/SAG Ensemble play. Which is a lot. Assuming it won’t bomb with audience like Widows which was also pegged for SAG and ended up completely snubbed.
My sense is that Knives Out is great fun but thematically thin. I think the TIFF audiences usually go for something that has some kind of thematic “importance” — even if what they choose may ultimately be somewhat middlebrow (like, say, Green Book). So i would be very surprised if TIFF audiences would choose Knives Out. I think Marriage Story is a strong contender and a “typical” TIFF choice. Or Portrait of a Lady on Fire.
I don’t see Two Popes winning. And I live in Toronto and I can tell you right now there’s no way TIFF audiences are choosing a movie about cars (Ford vs. Ferrari) for the audience award lol.
Swap out Waves for Joker and there’s your (current) Top 6
So whatever film does win the TIFF People’s Choice though, will almost guaranteed be nominated for Best Pic. The only one that missed was 2011. What won it that year?
“Where do we go now?” a Lebanese film. It failed to garner Foreign Film nom at the Oscars. However, #3 A Separation won Best Foreign. So that year was an anomaly for none of Top 3 was a Hollywood movie.