Jojo Rabbit won the Audience Award in Toronto in sort of a shock but not really a shock considering a fair amount of people liked the movie – but it’s also worth mentioning that the director, Taika Waititi, has quite a large following of fans on account of Thor: Ragnarok. It does seem poised for a Best Picture nomination, at the very least, but given the director’s status among fans it’s also a “wait and see” situation. Our good friend Tomris Laffly said on Twitter she thought it could WIN Best Picture. I have yet to see the film so I can’t make a judgment on that one way or the other but I did bring up the preferential ballot, which doesn’t like divisive films. Is it divisive? Who knows. We shall wait and see.
Reviews on Rotten Tomatoes are slightly mixed, with an overall 75% percent right now. For comparison, Joker ticks just one point higher, at 76%. That puts it, at least right now, in the love it/hate it category. Doesn’t mean it can’t win on the preferential ballot but to do so it would need to head in Birdman style winning the major guilds – or at least one or two – PGA, DGA or SAG.
Either way, this award, plus it being Fox Searchlight, puts it in good stead.
Taking a deeper look, Marriage Story and Parasite were the runners-up. How do the runners-up fare over time in terms of matching? Let’s take a look at the history:
2018–Green Book+
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
2017–Three Billboards
I, Tonya
Call Me By Your Name
2016-La La Land
Lion
Queen of Katwe
2015-Room
Angry Indian Goddess
Spotlight+
2014–The Imitation Game
Learning To Drive
St. Vincent
2013–12 Years a Slave+
Philomena
Prisoners
2012–Silver Linings Playbook
Argo+
Zaytoun
2011–Where do we go Now?
Starbuck
A Separation
2010–The King’s Speech
The First Grader
2009–Precious
Mao’s Last Dancer
Micmacs
So in the era of the expanded ballot (2009-current) the average is two out of three go on to be nominated. And four times one of the three Tiff choices has gone on to win Best Picture. Even when you go back before 2009 you find even less of a match up with runners-up and Best Picture. Things are always evolving in the Oscar race and nothing is a guarantee. But your best bet for prediction would be to figure out which two out of these three will get in, and whether the Best Picture winner is here.