First, a brief history of why things changed.
In 2003, the Academy pushed the date of the Oscars telecast back by one month. Rather than the blooming Jasmine of Spring, they remain a winter affair. But what that really did was remove the public, more or less, from the process of choosing Best Picture. Back before the date change, movies were released at the end of the year — Oscar season — then given a chance to make money at the box office during the Oscar nomination process so that they could ride the wave of the Oscars to better box office. If a movie didn’t make any money, its chances dipped to either be nominated or especially to win.
What we do now is base our expectations not on how well a film will do with the public – though that is always a benefit because it means that a large consensus liked the movie – but on how people at festivals or industry screenings are liking the film. Right now, in October, hope springs eternal.
In general, there are two films, sometimes three, that ride the rails to the finish. There is the frontrunner and the underdog. You always want to be the underdog and not the frontrunner because the frontrunner rarely wins unless it’s a movie that “wins everything.” Sometimes you don’t know you have a movie like that until it wins the Producers Guild, then the Directors Guild, then SAG and finally Oscar.
2009 – frontrunner Avatar, underdog The Hurt Locker
2010 – frontrunner The Social Network (should have won), underdog The King’s Speech
2011 – frontrunner The Artist, underdog Hugo
2012 – frontrunner Lincoln, underdog Argo
2013 – frontrunner Gravity, underdog 12 Years a Slave
2014 – frontrunner Boyhood (somehow), underdog Birdman
2015 – frontrunner The Revenant, underdog Spotlight
2016 – frontrunner La La Land, underdog Moonlight
2017 – frontrunner Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, underdog The Shape of Water (arguable, I suppose)
2018 – frontrunner Roma, underdog Green Book
What do we mean by frontrunner? We mean the movie “everyone is saying” will win. Here is a good example of that. When The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring was released, the general consensus was — it has to win Best Picture. But in reality, A Beautiful Mind couldn’t lose. Same went for Bugsy vs. Silence of the Lambs. Both of these are in the era before the preferential ballot. Now, with the preferential ballot it is much harder to predict which film will prevail but if you are the frontrunner you are going to be a target. And thus, easier to turn into a divisive film (a la La La Land).
Without getting too much in the weeds about the preferential ballot – let’s look at what might be thought of as the frontrunner now. We’re going to head on over to Gold Derby to see what’s what. We have to keep in mind that 1917, Little Women, Queen and Slim and Richard Jewell are still left to be seen and thus, we can’t form a full picture yet.
There now appear to be two top contenders — Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman. Right off, because I’ve been doing this a REALLY REALLY long time, so long that I had a one year-old baby when I started this site and that baby is currently in her last year of college. I can see the narratives play out from a long way out. You can probably guess what the main one will be. All’s you gotta do is look at two things – the New Beverly Cinema and Netflix. Right? Or you can look at actual film vs. digital film. Traditionalist vs. modernist. Two of America’s best directors who have created whole worlds with their films, arguably, whole languages of film.
I still have my money on Tarantino but I worry slightly about the team behind the film. Just slightly. I know the team behind The Irishman and I know that they are the best in the business. I also know that The Irishman is better reviewed, more serious and a little more actor-heavy. Where Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is trippin the light fantastic in a cloud of nostalgia. Tarantino’s film works for what a win for him would symbolize: romanticizing the old world. Scorsese’s film, meanwhile, is not only a Netflix release (the future) but also employs a brand new digital process of de-aging. It’s not really 100% new – it’s just more heavily utilized than we’ve seen it before.
Right now, both of these films could be considered frontrunners. So we have two. What films are the underdogs? Again, we have to reserve some chips on our gambling table for 1917 – because holy shit wow – and for Little Women. Greta Gerwig might be the only woman in the race and that might mean something. Who knows.
As for the underdogs, one would be Fox Searchlight’s Jojo Rabbit. The surprise audience winner in Toronto has a lot going for it but most especially it has LOVE going for it. Not as in a love story, though it is that, but a happy ending that spits back out into the world feeling GOOD. That always counts in the Oscar race. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood also does, depending on how well you know the history of the Manson murders and how well versed you are in Tarantino’s fantasy revenge trilogy.
Another underdog right now – a BIG underdog is Waves. We don’t know where this film is going to land but it, too, like Jojo Rabbit has a whopper of an uptick at the end. It is about forgiveness and it has the qualities you look for in a Best Picture winner.
Remember, to win on a preferential ballot you need a movie that people feel compelled to push to the top of the ballot.
Either that film is a film that wins everything (PGA, DGA and SAG ensemble) and then Oscar – or you are in a split year wherein a ballot recount and preferential redistribution is a likely outcome. Which film will do well in a recount scenario is what you’re looking for. How do you know you’re in a recount scenario? One film doesn’t win all of the big big guilds.
No recount:
2009 – The Hurt Locker — PGA, DGA, nominated for SAG.
2010 – The King’s Speech – PGA, DGA, SAG ensemble
2011 – The Artist – PGA, DGA, was nominated for SAG ensemble
2012 – Argo – PGA, DGA, SAG ensemble
2014 – Birdman – PGA, DGA, SAG ensemble
Recount
2013 – 12 Years a Slave PGA, nominated for SAG; Gravity PGA, DGA – 12 Years a Slave wins Best Picture
2015 – The Big Short-PGA, The Revenant-DGA, Spotlight-SAG – Spotlight wins
2016 – La La Land-PGA, DGA – not nominated for SAG; Moonlight wins with no major guild win except WGA.
2017 – The Shape of Water-PGA, DGA, not nominated for SAG. Three Billboards wins SAG. The Shape of Water wins Oscar
2018 – Green Book-PGA (not nominated for SAG), Roma-DGA-(not nominated for SAG), Black Panther-SAG; Green Book wins Oscar
The recount situation is a tough nut to crack. A solid winner that “wins everything” makes an Oscar year kind of a cake walk. You stop focusing on Best Picture and instead focus on other categories. My old friend David Carr used to say that a year where Best Picture is open is the best year to cover. And he was right.
We don’t find out which film might be the runaway winner until the PGA, after the Golden Globes.
I myself cannot say right now which film will win, mainly because we don’t have all of the movies but here is my best analysis of what we have on our plates right now.
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – a case to win PGA, DGA, and SAG but not in a recount scenario
Pros – Tarantino is American treasure. He’s never won Best Director and he’s way way WAY overdue. His film is a loving tribute to the pop culture, television, and cinematic influences of his life and career. It is one of three films where he envisions toppling evil in a fantasy scenario – it was the Nazis, then slavery, and now the Manson family. That is bigger than just Tarantino being Tarantino. It is the result of a long meditation on evil, on movies and how we often look to them to be better versions of ourselves. I’ve got Tarantino for DGA – and if that changes, I will be sure to let you know.
2. The Irishman – sitting pretty-ish right now as a potential underdog. Right now it’s an underdog because it’s a Netflix movie and there will be some push-back against that. But that will end up working in their favor if it can be turned into something to FIGHT FOR. The film itself is a crowning achievement for all involved, starting with Marty himself. Where The Departed’s win could be seen as a “it’s time to reward Marty finally” – The Irishman would be a win because it’s actually great (I love The Departed, but you know what I mean). De Niro, Pesci, Pacino – all riding at a level 10. This is about as good as it gets in terms of films about the mob. It is shocking, almost, how good it is.
3. Jojo Rabbit – in prime position to be the little movie that could. It doesn’t take itself too seriously and is so emotionally rewarding that it might just win the hearts of anyone who sees it. Of course, it helps that it’s about World War II. By the last shot of the film if you are with the film, you’re in love and that is the end of that. Voters often vote with their hearts and they might vote for this one.
4. Marriage Story – Noah Baumbach’s film also has a kind of uplift to it, in that it’s about the ways a fractured couple learns how to still be a family. I suspect that it will hit home with a lot of voters, but more than that it’s an actors showcase and could very well just win the whole thing because of that alone.
5. Parasite – no international or foreign language film can win if it has its own category but if any can do it, Parasite can. I would never predict it but it will be a big number-one vote getter across the board and I suspect Bong Joon-Ho will be a strong contender to win Best Director.
6. Waves – here is your underdog to beat all other underdogs. We haven’t been hearing much about it but its subject matter, how its directed, what it ultimately stands for is either going to hit or miss and it’s hard to tell right now but I would keep an eye on this one because it really could win as an 11th hour surprise.
7. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood is a film that could be one of the few directed by a woman to get in. And it could get in on Tom Hanks’ performance alone. For him to win in the Supporting Actor category, it would have to get in. If actors love it enough, it should do well overall. It also has a message of forgiveness, like Waves, and could sit well with voters in a time of strife.
8. Dolemite is My Name – all I can say is this: if voters invite Dolemite to the Oscar race it is going to be one hell of a good time. No film this year has made me feel as good as Dolemite has. And it’s more than just Eddie Murphy being funny. I think of the scene where he is all dressed up and picks up his friend and collaborator Lady Reed (Da’Vine Joy Randolph) to attend the premiere and I get all choke up. Why, because with all odds against him, Rudy Ray Moore made something of his motherfucking self. And that is an American success story.
9. The Two Popes – This is going to be one of the more pleasurable films in the race with a meaningful message – yet another message – about forgiveness. With two brilliant lead performances and if Jonathan Pryce is getting in, there is a really good chance the Two Popes gets in.
10. Ford v Ferrari – this is going to be the number one film of a lot of voters, I figure. It does seem like a bit of a long shot at this point because there are so many other films but remember, follow the actors. This one has a lot of actors. Big actors, bravura performances and man oh man does it move. Of all of them, this is one I will be watching on repeat.
11. The Report – Adam Driver is having a hell of a year. The Report is one to watch for because of that, but also because of the hard-hitting revelation about the torture memo at a time when voters could be feeling political. As dynamic and hard-hitting as the films are, only this one is overtly political. That makes it stand out, that makes it potentially a number one film.
12. Uncut Gems – The Safdie brothers are standouts in the bravura directing department but more than that, Adam Sandler is considered a major acting contender – which means there is a more than likely chance the film will get in too.
13. Just Mercy – this is a film that has two strong lead actor performances but more than that, it is a film about a wrongly accused black man (Jamie Foxx) and thus, could get into the race on subject matter alone.
Other films to be on the lookout for as we wait for 1917 and Little Women, and Queen and Slim and Richard Jewell.
The Farewell, since Shuzhen Zhao is a supporting actress contender, the film will be seen and could be a favorite.
The Peanut Butter Falcon – once again, if Zack Gottsagen is a supporting actor contender, the film could be considered.
Judy – if love for Zellweger propels it.
Joker – if it makes enough money, you never know.
Motherless Brooklyn – another actors showcase that could surprise people with how well it does.
I know that there are going to be themes that play out, specifically with regard to Netflix. With so many of their movies potentially in the race, they are going to be a big target. I know what is at stake but for now we have to just analyze the race as we would any year, with or without Netflix. But sure, it seems like a very long shot that three Netflix movies will get in, let alone four. But is it their fault they have so many great movies? Hasn’t it just made the Oscar race and year of film better overall? I think it has.
Right now, I feel that these three films have the best shot to win. Of course, I can’t predict 1917 or Little Women without having seen it, so we’ll hold back on those for now.
What are your top ten?
I don’t care if it won the Toronto audience award Jo jo Rabbit has no business being nominated for best picture .it is even worse than Green Book.
The Joker also should not be no Nominated for Bp
Aldo please add Honeyland to your list of Documentaries that should be nominated this year.
So interesting to hear Sasha’s take on Ford v. Ferrari. Every time I see a trailer for it I just think “who the hell cares?” Literally not one aspect of the film interests me and it just seems like a by the numbers biopic. And I LOVE James Mangold (Logan should have been a BP nominee and Patrick Stewart an acting winner, in my book at least). But I just cant muster even an iota of interest in this. And with it seemingly outside of the top 5 in nearly every race (is anyone predicting any of its actors? That would sort of be necessary if we are calling it an actor showcase), it just looks weak to me.
1917 looks like something impressive enough to get in (though like Dunkirk, performances dont seem to be the center of the film so I dont think it can ultimately win). And I just cant see an Academy with its snobby old guard (ie: Spielberg saying Netflix shouldn’t be allowed to compete) allowing FOUR Netflix titles in BP. Its not fair, but they just aren’t going to do it.
SO: Keep Sasha’s 1-7. Add 1917 in 8th place. 9th is between Little Women, The Farewell, and The Report. (Its highly improbable to get 10 nominees)
Officially more excited for Midway than for 1917.
Pearl Harbor 2, here we come! Or Independence day type action in WW2 film. Dear god, no! I may be doing Mendes disservice and his film could be a very restrained war film like Dunkirk and focuses on two young soldiers trying to prevent a massacre instead of the war action and gore.
Emmerich is a safe value of entertainment. I do not remember a single movie by him that ever bored me… I consider him the direct heir of Cecil B. de Mille… extremely good at filmming action and disaster (the mayhem of LA in 2012 is simply one of the best – insanely way – sequences I have ever seen of destruction and mayhem, and in which Emmerich achieves the impossible, to keep us entertained, thrilled and also in just the exact point of horror we could bear in what it is basically a massacre of innocents. I will defend 2012 any given day as a must see, even if it is clearly flawed film… but there is way more to it than just a dumb destruction film.
You can always watch videos of massive destruction on Youtube. How do you think bringing that to a WW2 film will be like? It might be entertaining for you, but it’s not subtle and borders on the mindless.
I dare to say I will be more entertained by a bad Emmerich Midway film than with Saving Private Ryan and Black Hawk Down combined. Those two films made me fall in complete outrage, I think they are pure evil. Emmerich is an expert in subverting subtext… Independence Day’s ending marks the end of the USA independence. 2012 is an hilarious satire on the end of capitalism. I just love the guy, way smarter than his critics.
Wow! I mean, did you miss the American jingoism that is front and centre and hallmark or directors like Emmerich and Bay? That subtext only works if the whole film wasn’t about American exceptionalism. He fooled no one. It’s too dumb to take this serious. How did you miss the whole film?
Emmerich uses it in a satyrical way… the ending of Independence Day clearly states that it is the END of the USA and the start of a World Government. In 2012, it is China who saves the elites, and the USA are mere guests. In The Day after Tomorrow, the USA population is forced to migrate to Mexico or die. Emmerich is german and has a really queer (dark) sense of humor and satire. Godzilla is basically a comedy, for example. His movies tend to be terribly camp and fun, and conscious about it.
I don’t think little bit here and there is nothing when you are talking about a mountain heap of mediocrity. Good explosions do not make good films. Independence Day has one of the most iconic destructions in film history, but it is mind numbingly bad. Only Will Smith does something to keep you interested in it.
Well, Laura Dern will receive another honor, this time at the Mill Valley Film Festival, honored as the Actress of the year. Dern will present an on-stage talk during the festival about her career and body of work. Add this to the honor of the Gotham Awards, and things continue to be very good for her. I really hope she wins the Oscar in the end.
Unless The Report really comes out swinging and Annette Bening turns into a major force…I cant see anything stopping Dern’s march to the Oscar stage.
-The Irishman
-Parasite
-Ford v. Ferrari
-OUATI Hollywood
-Joker
-1917
-Judy
-The Lighthouse
-Marriage Story
-Jojo Rabbit
9 nominees… my bet right now would be (in order of likelyhood to win)
1. 1917 (+6)
2. The Irishman (=)
3. Jo Jo Rabbit (-2)
4. Marriage Story (-1)
5. Once upon a time in Hollywood (-1)
6. Parasite (=)
7. Beautiful day in the Neighborhood (-2)
8. Richard Jewell (NEW)
9. Pain and Glory (+5)
FALLING: The Two Popes, Ford vs. Ferrari & Bombshell
I count only top 3 as almost locks. The 4 to 6 are safe bets. The rest, iffy but looking relatively good.
I think I am probably going to hate 1917. It looks like a film glorifying war from the trailer. I was interested in seeing it because of its technical challenges and forgot what it’s about. I’d have thought Dunkirk was the turning point for Hollywood war films. That was brilliant and Nolan will get his due credit in years to come. It is his third best film (after Memento and The Prestige), imo, and might even be a cinematic landmark. I fear 1917 will be a regressive war film. The cinematography is looks stonking good. Competition among BP films is very weak, so a second Oscar for Deakins is on the cards.
For now I would only dare predict the Irishman-Marriage Story-OUATIH trio scoring major nominations in Picture, Director, Screenplay, Acting; and Zellweger landing a nod in Actress.
The rest remains a blur to me. With 1917, Little Women, Bombshell, Richard Jewell, Queen and Slim, Dark Waters; ALL around the corner with excellent pedigree and potentially perfect timing, I am really not sure what to make of the remaining slots in the main categories. Sure, on paper we could easily fill the slots with the already seen and rather well-received second-tier of Oscar contenders but what’s the point when something like 1917, Bombshell or Little Women (or ALL three) could just come along and completely rearrange the supporting acting categories the very least.
For what it’s worth, with the Oscars scheduled for early February, this is a short season so they will probably start screening the unseens soon then we can finally have some semblance of (unofficial) early word on all of them at last.
Current Predictions are:
-1917 – seems like a duh, at this point
-The Irishman – ditto
-Marriage Story – ditto
-Once Upon a Time … – ditto
-Jojo Rabbit – looks like a guild juggernaut, to me
-Ford v Ferrari – I think this will be stronger than many are predicting
-Parasite – passion/critical support
-A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood – kinda iffy on this, but can see it
-The Two Popes – could struggle because of other Netflix biggees, but seems like AMPAS catnip
Those 9 look like it, to me.
Unless it really is great; for some reason I see ABDITN missing almost everywhere but Hanks and maybe screenplay… I don’t think it stands a chance in BD and that just makes BP even more difficult. And it doesn’t seem tech heavy enough to get a boost from other branches… Just a sight unseen gut feeling I’ve had since day 1.
Ford v Ferrari seems another First Man to me.
The Two Popes, I just don’t see it.
The rest look OK to me, but Neighborhood is iffy in my view.
I would switch those two for Eastwood and Almodovar, right now. Still many things to change.
So Joker. Everyone seems to have a take so y’all don’t really need mine but I’ll give it to you anyway.
Easy things right off the bat Lead actor and cinematography nominations absolutely deserved and probably original score. Those 3 aspects I think most people can agree on. It is so beautifully shot and Phoenix is ridiculously brilliant. I really don’t think that’s a controversial thing to say.
As for the rest damn I don’t know what to think! It’s super intense and personally I think that I think it’s pretty brilliant. Not everyone will though and I think that’s fine. I don’t believe in movies can incite violence but if there was ever a time where it is valid to believe that it’s here – that speech at the end is played directly at the camera and almost feels at times like it’s speaking to the audience… As I say I don’t personally have a problem with it because I think anyone inspired by it is just looking for something to be inspired by and will find it but anyone who it’s worried about it is totally valid in those concerns.
The weakest aspect is definitely the script, there are times when it’s a little too obvious and like it’s trying too hard to imitate Scorsese rather than just be it’s own thing but there are also moments of brilliance in the script and Phoenix really manages to elevate it at the moment where he doesn’t have much to work with.
I honestly don’t know where this ends up with the academy, it could go any number of ways… One final note, Phillips basically verbatim unironically giving Joker’s speech at the end does himself no favours when the answer to the discourse is supposed to be “we should trust people not to believe that Joker is right and the good guy”. If he wants it to get nominated he needs to keep his mouth shut.
So yeah take off that what you will I’m giving it 3.5/4
Pretty much my thought’s exactly… I was a little disappointed in how predicable it ended up being… I was hoping to be SHOCKED like everyone else seems to be by it somehow. But I honestly think a lot of the general public are losing their minds over it because it’s the first film in God knows how long they’ve watched that has proper/well done character development haha… Other than that I have no real complaints…
Phoenix was amazing and he carries the movie like few can do. After it’s all said and done is he’s the films sole nomination I’d be OK with it. It’s really because of him that it’s as good as it is. But like you said the cinematography and score were both very good as well. Best parts of the film besides Phoenix.
I totally agree, though tbh the character development comes mostly from Phoenix. I don’t think the script is perfect he’s just so brilliant that he makes up for the flaws in the writing!
The writing is fine… Not great, but it’s probably as good as LOGAN and that squeaked into screenplay… But that was a weak year in that category.
Again I can agree with all of that. I don’t think the script is bad, it just isn’t really amazing and there are flaws in it – though I’d say the same thing about Logan.
I’m currently 3 out of 4 stars on it.
It’s not a perfect film. Has some issues. It’s themes are obvious, but that type of thing doesn’t bother me.
I thought the strongest sections were the opening, the bonkers closing, and the middle train set piece. Portions of the film near the middle-end slow to a crawl with misery porn; could’ve done without that.
But Phoenix’s incredible performance and the great cinematography pulled me through.
As for other reactions on the internet, I’m reading mostly “It was amazing, so there!” or “It was awful, because…” with very little in-between. I feel like a lot people are spouting those reactions just to be incendiary.
Linda Ronstadt: The Sound of my Voice is a thrilling movie, mostly because of her singing. Highly recommend.
The screenplay and direction for “Judy” is worse than “Still Alice” and “The Wife”. Very tedious dreadful movie. Zellweger has a decent voice, but nothing like Garland. She is far from a lock to win.
To be fair Judy Garland didn’t sound like Judy Garland in that final year, either, and – for obvious reasons – there are no proper recordings of her singing voice from that period, either.
There are an abundance of recordings from her TV shows which were 5-7 years earlier. She is spectacular including her duos with pretty much everyone.
I have no doubt she was spectacular 5-7 years before her death, question is was she STILL spectacular a year before her death? According to reviews at the time, her voice was severely damaged by then.
My friend played piano at a now defunct piano bar in Boston. Garland would frequently saunter over from the Lenox Hotel late in the night to get up and sing a few tunes. In her final years, certain aspects of her voice had diminished somewhat (most notably, her ability to sustain/hold notes near the top of her range), but he claims she still sounded glorious and even then had a stage presence that dwarfed any other performer.
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. 1917
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. Parasite
5. Little Women
6. Marriage Story
7. The Irishman
The last two titles aren’t really in my wheelhouse but they seem to have made quite a splash on the circuit so who knows? Beyond that I don’t feel so sure and there may well be only seven nominees if nothing else can make the cut.
8. The Farewell or A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Sight unseen these two seem too light to factor in, but well it’s also the sort of easily likeable fare that may get in on an expanded line-up.
9. Joker
It sounds very divisive: many hate it, but passion rules BP nominations not consensus, so it’s entirely possible a large enough fraction of voters will want to support it against the backlash.
10. Downton Abbey or Frozen 2
❤️ A girl can dream ❤️
Those 7 seem about as legit as it comes at this point… In a 5 movie year I’d be surprised if the 5 nominees didn’t come from those 7.
I think Midsommar is also a long shot and could fare even better if the Academy saw it. Cinematography should be nommed, either way. Its flawed but it lingers.
Midsommar is really well shot and had a lot of really long takes but I don’t think they are seeing it tbh.
Really respect Rodrigo Prieto, but I wish Michael Ballhaus or Robert Richardson had shot Silence/Irishman.
Why?
Same reason I wished Giuseppe Rotunno had shot all those late Viscontis I happen to love regardless; a more effortless correspondence between a filmmaker’s temperament/cameraman.
I saw The King; was knocked out by it; am eager to see it again on Netflix with the benefit of hindsight; but here’s the thing: I didn’t love it until I reached the end. Avoiding spoilers, at some point in the middle I wondered what the point of it was, and just couldn’t find the answer. Why have they disposed of Shakespeare’s poetry, and in fact every line he wrote? Why have they changed the character arcs of both Hal and Falstaff? Why are there f-bombs in the script? [Answer: Because the word “fuck” was in common usage from early medieval times, and the real question is why Shakespeare, despite his immensely varied vocabulary, never felt able to use it.] All these questions are clearly answered by the end, but… I can understand why the film lost some people long before the end. The complaints all boil down to one thing: “I can’t believe they changed that! Why?!”
I gathered one thing from the start: these brave filmmakers have come to bury Shakespeare, not to praise him. They have changed so much from his version that Shakespeare purists were bound to wince (and unfortunately many such purists reside in America as well as in Britain). However, Henry V is not the right play on which to plant your purist flag. If there was one Shakespeare play that badly needed to be reexamined and revised by modern writers, it was
Titus AndronicusThe Taming of the ShrewHenry V. Why does a country, England in this case, proudly revere a king whose legend is based on… doing the thing he did? Shakespeare and Olivier portrayed the character as a supremely noble hero for the purposes of Tudor and WWII propaganda, but this glorification is just wrong. Anyone who is able to read Shakespeare critically, without worshipping him, should realise that. He is usually an acute observer of human nature, but not in Henry V, because of the constraints of his period.So, did Michod and Edgerton manage to bury Shakespeare’s version? No, not really. That would be a nearly impossible task, because of a self-evident truth: Olivier/Branagh + Shakespearean poetry > Chalamet + modern prose. This can’t replace those versions, but it can live alongside them and add enlightenment to them. That’s a pretty big deal.
Chalamet clearly doesn’t look as impressively regal as Olivier or Branagh, but neither of them ever played the feckless young Prince Hal from the Henry IV plays (as they were probably too old). However, googling “henry v portrait” shows that this hereditary leader did not look especially regal, and actually looked quite similar to Chalamet with a bowl cut. Would Shakespeare himself have approved of this “fey” and “wimpy” casting, as one critic called it? Given that he regularly worked with male actors who dressed as women, he would surely not have objected (and might have even written a sonnet for him). It doesn’t seem plausible that an army would follow this character, but it also doesn’t appear to make sense that the North Korean army takes orders from Kim Jong Un. They follow these “unsuitable” dictators because they have no choice, which was clearly a point that Michod wanted to make. This is a much misunderstood film.
Titus is a brilliant and underrated Shakespeare adaptation
You mean the film by Julie Taymor in 1999? Yes, I saw that, and I agree it was great. It was a great adaptation of a flawed play. (I was talking about Shakespeare’s play, not the 1999 film.)
Oscar chances:
Best Picture: No, because it’s Netflix’s 5th contender, and it’s too divisive. To truly appreciate this film, it helps to be both knowledgeable about Shakespeare’s plays and critical of them, but that’s not a large group of people. The Shakespeare purists hate it, while non-Shakespeare fans may not even watch it? (I have no idea what this last group might think, but perhaps they will find this young man’s story relevant to the modern world.)
Lead Actor: No chance, because there is no room for him, but also because he was cast against type for his lack of kingliness. He does grow into the role, but many people will just notice immediately that he is not kingly, and that’s that.
Supporting Actor: No room here either, and again some will object to the changes to Falstaff, which didn’t make sense to me until later in the film.
Supporting Actress: A slight chance here. Every mention of Lily-Rose Depp in reviews has been positive.
Screenplay: a strong chance for a nod here, as long as some voters agree with the likes of the Hollywood Reporter or the LA Times that this is a “plainspoken but unfailingly intelligent adaptation”. Either Original or Adapted would work, since this is almost an original work, but there is more room in Adapted. It would be a deserved nod for Michod and Edgerton’s sheer ambition and chutzpah in challenging Shakespeare. Their version contains less poetry than Henry V, but more truth. I would be disappointed if they got no recognition.
It’s hysterical that people still think the king is going to get Oscar nominations. People don’t seem to care about the film at all.
It hasn’t launched in North America yet. Only a handful of people in Venice have seen it, and a sizeable number or them were British Shakespeare purists. Nearly all the American critics were impressed.
It has just opened in London (which is irrelevant to the Oscars), but it will open in North America next weekend. That’s when it can be properly judged.
(Note: I only predicted a nod in Adapted Screenplay, which is not a crowded category.)
Adapted is very crowded – Irishman, JoJo rabbit, a beautiful day in the neighbourhood, Two Popes, Joker, Little Women etc
Original feels more crowded but there’s actually only 4 obvious nominees – Once Upon a Time, the Farewell, Marriage Story and Parasite. Beyond that is like which of these easy to swap out films do I pick (I have pain and glory rn
But it probably has chances for costume design or production design, no?
It’s adapted right? That race is crazy – maybe it could’ve had a chance in original but not adapted. Sorry I think it’s pretty clearly getting 0 nominations unless something crazy happens!
No, no, you have it the wrong way around. According to the Awardsdaily frontpage, Original is crowded. Adapted is not yet crowded. Some films like Little Women have yet to be seen, and this film has better reviews than Motherless Brooklyn. (And Jojo Rabbit, which is also divisive, but is very popular.)
Very important point about living alongside Shakespeare. His genius is in his texts, so if a film with an entirely new script is made, it is no longer “Shakespeare on film”, it is its own thing that might follow the main plot of Shakespeare’s play, but then again, both more or less follow history. Will this new script be better than Shakespeare’s? Almost certainly not. But for me as someone who did not read the play or see the Olivier film, The King stands on its own as a good film.
Really? That’s interesting! I wanted to hear from someone in the third group, so I’m glad to hear it worked for you.
Group A, my group = people who know the Henriad and are critical of it.
Group B, some of the critics = people who know the Henriad and think it’s perfect and doesn’t need any revising. (I despise this group.)
Group C = people who don’t know the Henriad. This is the big unknown at the moment. I hope the film works for this group.
This new script is actually better than Shakespeare’s in many ways. It’s not as beautiful, but it’s more truthful. It sounds strange to say that about the greatest writer in the English language, but it’s obvious that he wrote Henry V to please his Tudor audience, not to be truthful about human nature. (Olivier’s film was also about WWII propaganda, while Branagh’s version did a little revising, but was mainly concerned with establishing Branagh as the new Olivier.)
Another question: did they manage to make a version that is closer to what the Bard would’ve written if he hadn’t been limited by « the constraints of his period »?
In terms of poetry, no, because nobody can match him in that. In terms of the storylines and characterisation, absolutely. Shakespeare was compelled to glorify the king and his actions because of his Tudor audience, but he dropped dark hints of how he truly felt in two places (neither of which appear in the film because they are redundant): 1) after the siege of Harfleur, and 2) at the end of the epilogue, which sums up the action using the word “glory”, but then drops a bleak postscript into the penultimate sentence.
[He would have greatly approved of the casting too. I already said Shakespeare might write a sonnet to him — but people would have to know the sonnets to get that reference. Suggestion just for you: read the famous Sonnet 18, think about the young man he was addressing, known only as Mr. W. H., and think of the eternal summer of CMBYN. 🙂 ]
Yes Sonnet 18 is quite something! Re-reading it gave me the occasion to rummage through my books to find an edition of the complete works of Shakespeare. The only play of his I’ve ever read in its entirety is ‘Antony and Cleopatra’, but the sonnets are a great way to discover Shakespeare, as they are delightful and more accessible (or at least less time-consuming).
I’ve tried to get acquainted with his works in many ways over the years. ‘A Midsummer Night’s Dream’ is probably my favorite play of his. I have seen it in various forms, same for ‘Hamlet’, ‘Macbeth’ and ‘Othello’, which I have also read in French. I adore Zeffirelli’s ‘Romeo and Juliet’ and I have also seen many Shakespeare comedies either as film or TV adaptations. But somehow I always skipped the Henriad, so I’m looking forward to watching ‘The King’ in a less formal adaptation, keeping in mind everything you said.
I love most of Shakespeare’s plays, but I strongly recommend that you do NOT watch the previous film adaptations of Henry V, because as a Frenchman, they might make you a bit angry. By contrast, this adaptation should do very well in France, and I’m looking forward to seeing how they will promote it. (“Le Roi” instead of “The King”, I suppose. In the film, it matters whether a character speaks in French or English.)
The BBC had an adaptation of the Henriad which includes four plays, with Richard II before Henry IV Parts 1 and 2 and Henry V. Ben Whishaw is great as Richard II. But Henry IV Part 2, especially, contains a lot of pointless filler, so it’s good that we now have this adaptation of the three Henry plays that cuts out the redundant subplots and streamlines the story.
Yes, they’re using the title ‘Le Roi’ in France, which is almost surprising since distributors are increasingly inclined not to translate catchy English titles, especially Netflix.
‘The Hollow Crown’ does look masterful but also a little bit much to take it all at once. ‘The King’ is like ‘The Henriad Lite’ I guess.
Well, the English Plantagenet kings had French origins and spoke French, and so does Timothee Chalamet, so I suppose calling him “Le Roi” is appropriate. 🙂
My Top Ten, and I am serious about the #1.
1. Parasite
2. The Irishman
3. Marriage Story
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Jojo Rabbit
6. The Farewell
7. 1917
8. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
9. Pain & Glory
10. Ford v Ferrari
That would be great. I like this list a lot more than the others. I hope it turns out like this.
I’m a very stable genius.
I can’t believe this is what we’re discussing in the middle of the Scorsese/MARVEL wars.
p.s. Joker (Phillips ’19): Coward, deluded filmmaking. (D+)
It should only help him with Academy voters, since they haven’t supported any Marvel film except Black Panther.
Well, that was disappointing. After all that build up for Joker, I left the theater saying, “That’s what the fuss was about?” I’m trying to figure out how this won the Golden Lion at Venice. The film is pathetically boring and incredibly predictable. An amalgamation of pseudo philosophy, heavy handed social commentary, and perplexing filmmaking decisions. There is nothing interesting about this film. Phoenix was the only saving grace, but he didn’t have much to work with. I find it strange that he’s being praised for this film, when he was infinitely better in You Were Never Really Here. This film has zero chance of making the BP lineup. I agree with A.O. Scott, are you kidding me?
Mark my words, it WILL get a BP nomination
Honestly I think the race is still open for something to come along and win. The Irishman is Netflix and it’s 3.5 hours long, OUATIH is Tarantino and somewhat divisive, JoJo Rabbit is great but it’s quite comedic and may to some (who I’d disagree with) seem too slight to win, if 1917 turns out how it looks, I think it could totally come through and win the whole thing. Or maybe there’s something we are underestimating.
My predictions right now
1. 1917
2. The Irishman
3. Once Upon a Time…
4 Marriage Story
5. JoJo Rabbit
6. Parasite
7. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
8. Little Women (though I’m starting to feel skeptical)
9. The Farewell (I’m holding on to it because it’s brilliant but maybe I’m being stubborn and should let it go)
10. Joker or Ford v Ferrari (right now I have neither in because 10 is unlikely)
What about Marriage Story?
Like the Irishman it is Netflix and I just don’t yet see them giving Netflix the win – if they do it’ll probably be Irishman which is why I haven’t mentioned it. It is definitely top 5 though and could win. People definitely love it.
Roma lost last year way more because it was foreign language than because it was Netflix. I don’t think it will be that big of a problem. Marriage Story is more accessible than The Irishman and we know the Academy was never a big fan of Scorsese.
I mean, maybe, I still think the Netflix thing was a big issue but we will see. Basically all my post was supposed to say is there is definitely the space for something to come in and win if something right comes along – it doesn’t feel like it’s all over with what we have already. I haven’t seen marriage story but I question whether a film about a divorce between 2 decently well to do white people will not have the urgency to be given best picture… Though maybe that thought comes just from not having seen it…
The Irishman is also about white people, and it’s 3.5 hour long and a genre the Academy never used to appreciate a lot. At least Marriage Story has some things in common with Kramer vs Kramer.
White wasn’t really the main word there, the idea is that it seems small and unimportant (thinking from the perspective of a voter not from the perspective of whether it is good). The word important is kind of big with Oscars – voters thought of green book as important because it’s healing the divide, moonlight and the shape of water sent strong messages about tolerance, spotlight is an important film about the power of the press and this shocking story (I know I’m massively simplifying the point of these films but you get the idea) the Irishman seems to be a big movie with a lot to say and marriage story is about 2 people getting divorced.
Okay I should stop this though I haven’t seen either of these films so maybe marriage story does feel important when you watch it, I dunno. Btw this is purely me putting myself in the head of an awards voter not my personal views.
But what exactly is the “importance” of The Irishman, on a level outside of genre, director, technology and actors (this has remained a little unclear for me)
From what I’ve read it has a lot to say about aging and regret in life as well as about privilege afforded to some people over others and I feel like this will be a theme that will resonante with a bunch of people in the academy. Though the point of this post was actually that I think there is still space for something else to come in and win – I want expecting too be arguing that Irishman will win.
Marriage Story has a big female lead. It is set in the industry with a popular cast. It’s not a polarizing film. And with preferential balloting for Best Picture, I can’t see voters ranking this very low.
1917? Oscar said no to Dunkirk. The Irishman and OUATIH have the ambitious feel that AMPAS likes.
They said no to one war film doesn’t mean they’ll say no to another… It’s just that for the reasons I stated I’m not feeling the frontrunner status of any of the already seen films so I’m looking for another option
But why 1917? Because the other option would be Marriage Story.
It’s a personal story to the guy who is making it, that trailer that was just released makes it look incredible visually, the ‘one shot’ thing could be one hell of a sell for Oscar voters, it’s been a while since a war epic won and it seems just the year for it as the year will be dominated by epics. I will obviously re-evaluate when it is actually seen though. I’m not saying this with 100% certainty obviously. Nobody knows what is going to happen right now we are just making our best guess
The whole it took 12 years to make didn’t help Boyhood out.
Also see my response above about Marriage Story
Yeah, after the film festivals, I figured Marriage Story was the one. It still may be. But something about it feels a little slight, somehow?
The Irishman may be the one. I wonder if the length or any “We’ve rewarded Marty already” sentiment is floating around.
OUATIH could be the one. But the early release date and Quentin could ultimately be a stumbling block.
I feel like Jojo Rabbit lacking in critical approval (far more so than Green Book) will be its stumbling block; along with the comedic aspect.
I’m also looking towards 1917 now. Though, does that seem too obvious a win?
Yeah i do have the same questions around it being a a bit obvious but I’m leaving it here as a possibility for now because nothing feels like a locked winner yet
the factors why I think you are terribly understimating Pain and Glory
1) Parasite vs Pain & Glory reminds me terribly of Y tu mamá también vs Talk to her. Y tu mamá también (a threat for Best Picture, Director) only got nom’d for Original Screenplay which lost to Talk to Her which also was nom’d for Director and probably not far away from scoring Picture, Score noms, in a field of 5 nominees for Best Picture.
2) This is Almodovar’s Amarcord in some way. Amarcord got nominated for Director and Writing and also won Foreign Film… in a field of just 5 nominees for Best Picture.
3) As movies are being seen, Pain & Glory seems to have strong chances to be multinominated… International film is out of question. Banderas is a top contender. Score, cinematography are possible, even likely. Same with Original Screenplay, despite being crowded. That would make it a 5 nominations film, with still strong chances for a nom for Director and if that happens it would be the most nominated film without a Best Picture nom.
4) The metascore and the RT have increased positively since the movie started in the USA. The lowest reviews come from, of course, spanish reviewers who just despise Almodovar whatever he makes, namely Carlos Boyero, which basically is a really bad critic with personal grudges on some filmmakers.
5) The only reason (and I mean the ONLY reason) why people is not taking it seriously as a Best Picture possibility, is because Parasite, and how strong it is, and the fact that never two foreign language films have been nominated for Best Picture on the same year. But last year we had two directors of FL films nominated, and it is really, really likely, this year can happen again. Above Almodovar I see only Mendes and Scorsese as locks. Bong, I would say is on the same level as Pedro in appeal for DGA or Oscar.
Still, it will be critics who will define if the chances favor P&G or Parasite… I guess they will go Parasite at Picture and Foreign and can go P&G for Actor and Screenplay. We will see
1) Which one in that comparison is Parasite and which is Pain & Glory
2) That was in the 70s (it’s not like they’d just casually nominate filmmakers like Bergman, Wertmüller, Truffaut, Pontecorvo, Antonioni, Teshigahara and Fellini in director like they did back in the 60s and 70s)
3) When was the previous time that a second-place non-English language contender got several craft nominations
5) Cold War getting a director nomination last year was most likely due to Amazon working really hard to make people consider that film outside just the foreign language category. Is SPC going to do the same?
1) Parasite, the hip proposal from an in the rise foreign director that already made some lackluster english speaking project before (Cuarón made A Little Princess, Bong made Snowpiercer) vs an already stablished Pedro Almodovar already regarded as a master and who always have said NO to betray his roots and work in Hollywood or shoot in english. So Parasite would be Y tu mamá también
2 We just had TWO foreign language films nominated at best director last year. In the last 5, 4 Best Director Oscars have gone to Mexico.
3. Fanny and Alexander, Das Boot, Amelie, Cyrano de Bergerac, so many examples.
5. SPC always trusts on Pedro’s chances. He knows how to party, er, campaign. And this time he has the ultra-likeable Banderas as icebreaker.
1) So in your assessment Pain & Glory is in a better position than Parasite, a film that actually has buzz for picture and director at the moment while a lot of people seem content with an international film nomination with a possibility for an actor nomination as well for Pain & Glory? I sincerely doubt that. I’d also argue that Y tu mamá también didn’t seem to make that much of an impact on Oscar voters, considering that it was probably a fifth place nominee in one of the weakest years in the category of original screenplay in terms of best picture contenders (and also, kind of unrelated but since you mentioned it, I thought I should note about this, Almodóvar is apparently going to make a film in English next, at least according to a new Indiewire interview)
2) But my point was that few filmmakers who don’t make films in English seem to get Oscars purely based on name recognition anymore or their films making some sort of impact without there really being any notable best picture support for the film (Pawlikowski is really the only example since Meirelles in 2003). Fellini’s nomination for Amarcord was most likely at least in part because the branch wanted to nominate Fellini one last time (and I don’t think that the Academy will have such impulses to nominate Almodóvar, considering the way in which they’ve ignored him for all of his films except Talk to Her)
3) I’d argue that none of those were secondary non-English language contenders, by which I meant that there was some other non-English language film that fared better than them. Each of the films you mention (although some of them did lose the foreign language film category, probably due to that category being voted on by a smaller committee back when those films were competing in the category) was the only film not in English to recieve any above the line nominations in their years.
5) But when was the previous time that SPC had a really great campaign? Of course they’ll support Almodóvar’s campaigning and push the film in certain ways but their recent campaigns have faired worse than one might have expected
well, you are overlooking the OBVIOUS, Ferdinand. This is NOT a matter of having better RT or MC but a matter of being loved more across the board, guilds-wise. Parasite is aiming to directing, writting nominations and will have support from actors. Pain & Glory has all that, PLUS it features excellent cinematography, production design and score. Parasite could realistically get International Film, Picture, Director, Original Screenplay and Film Editing noms. Pain & Glory is aiming with actual chances at International Film, Picture, Director, Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Score, Cinematography and Production Design. Do the math.
A non-English language film hasn’t recieved a score nomination since Pan’s Labyrinth and no non-English language film has recieved an editing nomination since The Diving Bell and Butterfly. And with production design the previous nominee that wasn’t period or scifi, wasn’t set in a place that automatically demands a lot of design work (like space) and wasn’t from a “genre” film (for example action, musical) since Amélie. Considering that no Almodóvar movie has ever recieved these nominations, there’s little reason to expect that the branches will be automatically considering them either. So personally at this point I don’t see this widespread “branch by branch” support, rather that any support the film might recieve will be from the above the line branches, leaving it at the same space as Parasite, and I’d argue that Parasite can easily eat up Pain & Glory in terms of attention if they’re fighting in the same categories only
This is of course not to say that the cinematography, production design and score of Pain & Glory aren’t genuinely brilliant. I just don’t see them as likely nominees in those categories at the Oscars
Objection! A Little Princess is an excellent film. Great Expectations might fit your theory more.
For me Tarantino is not overdue. He already have 2 competitive Oscars. Also, I never tought “12 Years a Slave” an underdog. It was clear a TIE year. Nor “The Revenant”, a film that for me would never win in a preferential ballot. “The Irishman” is not winning this. It will be harder to overcome many factors, like De Niro’s accusations of harassment, and the bombing interview where Scorsese basically compare Marvel’s films to trash. I don’t see OUATIH winning this too. I think that in the end, “Marriage Story” or a late breaker like “1917” or even “Dark Waters” (in a Spotlight scenario situation) can win this. Honestly, I will be VERY HAPPY IF DERN AND THOMAS NEWMAN finally WIN THEIR OSCARS.
Yep, 12YS was not an underdog lol. That was the sci fi movie for sci fi is always an underdog even with such a superior director who rightfully swept all awards much to stunt UN ambassador McQueen’s dismay (his reaction to Cuaron BAFTA win was up there with DOR’s reaction to Riva win the year before).
St. Marty has handed down the Tablets of the Law on what is and what isn’t “cinema” .What an arrogant little prick .
What about an acting nomination for Song Kang-ho? BP films tend to have an acting nomination and Parasite is without a doubt a top five film. Top five films are too strong to miss acting nod. It could be different this year because the acting categories are very tough and Parasite is a foreign film with unfamiliar actors. But let’s remember Roma got two last season.
He deserves a nomination.
Lead Actor is too crowded and if one non english performer is going to be nominated, we all know, it is going to be Banderas, who already won in Cannes and is scoring raves everywhere (even some backlash is already starting…)
I going by the strength of his film. It’s not just a certain BP nominee, but a top five film. BP have acting nominees unless they are a tech juggernaut. He’s got a top five film, so he’s right in play to be nominated. Of course, it could an exception this year since it is a crowded field in bot lead actor and supporting actor categories.
tell me who do you get out to land Parasite an acting nomination. Think about it. Banderas, Phoenix, Sandler, di Caprio, de Niro, Pryce, Hauser, Bale, etc. Unless critics state otherwise, Parasite won’t have any acting nominations.
I’d say if he makes it he bumps either Pesci or Hopkins or maybe Hanks. Yes those are supporting but as far as I’m concerned Parasite is an ensemble without a lead so he is supporting… Have they said how they will campaign because i don’t see why they would try to campaign him last!
Still as much as I think he deserves it I don’t really see him making it unless Neon gives him a massive campaign. They are giving the film a big campaign for categories beyond international so I think it’s possible but we will see.
don’t get me wrong, the man could easily have been nominated for any other Bong film, if the AMPAS would have gotten attention on his work. He is great in everything I see with him. My fave being The Host
You are talking about Lead. No one. Parasite has 10-11 pretty equal roles. Any of them would be supporting, but I think it is not happening. As I said before, it would need a ROMA Supporting Actress type of surprise.
Thank you for your expert analysis, Sasha
I wonder if Knives Out could still join the conversation. I didn’t think about it til now, but maybe it’ll surprise at SAG Ensemble. Reviews are really good. And seems a good shot at WGA. Same for Bombshell on the SAG front.
Also, I’ll be curious if Rocketman can still surprise.
Knives Out could probably surprise á la “In Bruges” a couple of years ago and reveive at least a screenplay nom.
Lionsgate has been good at getting in a film in most years. That seems their strongest bet (if you separate it from their Roadside partnership). Not saying likely, but just possible ones not listed by Sasha.
I’d agree if it was in adapted screenplay. But in original screenplay there seems to be very little room for anything right now
I think The Farewell should be higher up on the list. Top 10 contender for sure.
I’m unsure, without talking about quality (to me it obviously deserves to be nominated) what makes you think it’s for sure a contender? I feel like it may have peaked too early so people aren’t really talking about it as much anymore
A small foreign marvel like “Portrait de la jeune fille en feu” should be in the running, but it won´t happen – just not big enough and too subtle, I guess. Same very probably goes for “The Souvenir”, but I don´t want to whine too much (just a little, okay), there are some really excellent contenders in the mix – looks like an amazing year. I´m a huge supporter of one of the hottest contenders (hello Tarantino) and I´m happy if another foreign language film (after last years Roma) manages to have a (hopefully) huge impact on the race with “Parasite”.
Ha-ha.. first, finally!
😉
AICN flashbacks intensify. 🙂
So did you see Portrait de la jeune fille en feu? If so, what did you think?
Yep, saw it on Wednesday, there was a french preview with German subtitles. Touching, exquisitely directed, the acting marvellous (especially Hanel and Merlant) and a pleasure to simply look at. Means, I liked it a lot! 😉
It’s absolutely brilliant indeed. One of my favorite films this year. My Top-3 at the moment would be Parasite, Portrait de la jeune fille en feu and Once Upon A Time In… Hollywood. The Farewell and The Souvenir are pretty close too, both magnificent.
Wow, great taste you have!
Unfortunately I´ve yet to see “Parasite”, “The Farewell” and “The Souvenir”, but they are amongst the films I´m most looking forward to see. OUATIH is my number 1 at this moment.
Great taste you have as well man!! It’s a pretty good year so far.. OUATIH, I don’t even have words.. I’ve seen it in theaters two times which I’ve done only for a very few movies. Quentin is the man.
As for Parasite, I’m sure many years will pass until I come across a modern film of such jaw-dropping brilliance. Masterpiece with a capital M. If you’re in for an extremely dark, hilarious, thought-provoking and (obviously given the subject matter) heartbreaking character piece, it’s not to be missed.
I was thinking that maybe two foreign films can be nominated this year: Parasite and Pain and Glory. Fingers crossed.
I watched Les Miserables and it was disappointing. I wish France chose Portrait instead.
I´m going to see Les Miserables next months on a French Film Fest in my town. But I read some negative reactions (including you and Ferdinand) so I´m not very hopeful.
Yeah, I liked Pain and Glory, but I also think it missed some energy that Almodovar films usually have. It was very calm and reserved. Banderas delivered a bravura performance, for sure.
Can’t wait to see Pain and Glory and Les Miserables, for all its problems, makes in my opinion for a pretty interesting watch. Saw it a couple of weeks ago at a festival screening.
This is going to be a bizarre awards season with JOJO in the Oscar race, if you get my drift.
Breaking… saw it at CBR… Disney has officially announced its FYC for Avengers: Endgame… no acting is promoted.
Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Score, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Costume, Make up & Hairstyling, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects.
Up in 12… I think it can get both sound, Visual Effects and MAYBE Film Editing.
I honestly wouldn’t be shocked if it gets a token Best Picture nomination.
Anyone know what category Judy and JoJo Rabbit are going to be in at the Golden Globes?
I would’ve thought the former is quite obviously Musical. And isn’t the latter thought to be comedic?
I’d assume Judy would go Musical. But it’s more of a drama with musical numbers to me. A la A Star is Born, which went Drama last year.
I haven’t seen JoJo, but the book is far more serious than the trailers. Reminds me a bit of Three Billboards, which also went Drama.
So, I just wasn’t sure on either.
You really can’t tell these days. They go where they want or they think gives best result. I’d think Judy might Musical since that’s best shot of getting a nomination. But I’m not sure about JOJO.
That’d be my thought.
JoJo is undoubtedly comedy. I don’t think it’s announced but it’s sold as a comedy, Taika considers himself a comedy filmmaker, is definitely a comedy plus that would be the smart move for getting it a bunch of nominations because drama is packed.
No idea about Judy. What about Once Upon a Time… In Hollywood?
I feel Waves is a better alternative to Dolemite as the pick of the films by POC as it seems safer and more to the Academy’s taste. It’s not another Netflix film either. It might hurt Eddie Murphy’s chances of getting the nomination let alone the win.
I’m beginning to think that Todd Phillips’ rampage of “anti woke” kvetching the last few weeks was because he and his people knew that the slew of bad reviews were on their way after the initial Venice buzz. Even without those reviews (Morgenstern was especially harsh in the WSJ), I thought Phillips’ schtick was going to kill his film’s Oscar chances.
Depending on if Dolemite can actually get NOTICED with such a poor theatrical push from Netflix, I wouldn’t be shocked if Murphy suddenly leaps over Phoenix in the 4th or 5th Actor slot.
Wouldn’t be even remotely shocked if Bong Joon-Ho took Director. QT gets his third script win, Marty wins BP. Everyone’s happy.
The Farewell has been kicked out for some reason. The only film led and directed by a women that is a major contender. It is one of the most acclaimed films of the year and is likely to get three nominations in lead actress, supporting actress and screenplay, and it’s got a great chance in BD. Every year, films led and directed by women are frozen out of the major awards conversation for some strange reason, even when they are clearly the most acclaimed films. Every damn year. Are films by women not for the Oscars?
In order of being safe:
Once Upon A Time…in Hollywood
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Ford v Ferrari
Jojo Rabbit
Parasite
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Farewell
Joker
The Two Popes
Those are as of now without 1917, Bombshell, Queen and Slim, Richard Jewell, and Little Women being seen. If any of these stick the landing that bumps out Two Popes, Joker, The Farewell, etc depending on how many of these stick. Just my opinion obviously.
With the exception of Joker, I agree with you 100% – almost in that exact order too.
I am paying close attention to Ford v Ferrari. I am not sure it has what it takes to win it all but I think it’s sitting pretty good right now.
That’s the one I would have further down …
Once Upon A Time…in Hollywood
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Jojo Rabbit
Parasite
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Farewell
Ford v Ferrari
The Two Popes
Sasha still has FOUR Netflix movies in her top ten. I can’t get there. In Oscar history, has any studio ever gotten 40% or more of the entire BP nominees?
Joker is 101% in. Mark my words.
The King is fantastic. Despite the heavy material, it stays gripping and entertaining throughout. Acting is great across the board, with Chalamet and Edgerton being standouts, and Pattinson a scene stealer. It is serious all the way through, but never overly serious as to become pathetic. The music, by the great Nicholas Britell, sometimes takes centre stage with surprisingly great effect, at other times keeps the tension flowing in the background. Perhaps it’s not the next Citizen Kane, but it’s a kind of film experience that is increasingly rare these days.
Netflix has an impressive year, that´s for sure.
Joker: a pathetic and hateful film about how Todd Phillips’ “comedic brilliance” isn’t allowed to shine because people “can’t deal with it”. Agreeing with someone is not the same as being empathetic towards them and yelling angry nonsense is not the same as being provocative. It is baffling that studios are willing to greenlight this, which either implies that they trust audiences to be intelligent enough to understand the film’s point (even though what this point is supposed to be if not hatred is something I can’t quite understand), which would mean that they trust people to be intelligent enough to understand the point of a movie like this but not intelligent enough to respect something other than mindless action storytelling, or they just don’t care. Joaquin Phoneix isn’t bad but he’s given so little of any intelligence to portray that it’s far from impressive (and I love Joaquin Phoenix in general).
It already sank to 58 on Metacritic, I guess many reviews share your reservations. Haven´t seen it yet, but honestly – I´m mainly going to see it because of Joaquin Phoenix.
Ferdinand trashing Joker…again. Yawn. You started with it a month ago, even before a premiere.
Phillips’ press push the last week or so with Breitbart-level hot takes was very unhelpful
I had doubts about it (which wasn’t unfair), as it seemed like Todd Phillips was the most unispired choice to direct this film and from an idea level the film seemed like possibly a wasted chance of doing something I have always wanted: making something more serious and calm inside an action franchise by just doing something dark and basically expressing in the marketing that they were inspired by two Scorsese movies, making it seem like they did little else than be inspired by the plots of those two particular Scorsese movies. But it’s so much worse than that. What I considered to be a lack of promise in the film based on the trailers had little effect on my actual opinion of the movie as my problems were actually very different than what I had expected (its Scorsese links feel meaningless when watching the film, perhaps because the plots feel less repetetive if the emotional content of those Scorsese films is ignored and instead of being any take on any genre it felt like a person walking on stage during someone else’s speech and hogging the mike). If Phillips had actually made a film that tried to connect with something human instead of ranting on how the world treats him badly, I would have been happy to praise the film.
Having empathy and understanding of where people are coming from is a very good and commendable thing. And comedy shouldn’t be used as an excuse simply to be rotten to other people. But that doesn’t preclude also this “safe space” and “trigger warning” culture stuff from sometimes jumping the shark. In that regard I think Phillip’s has a point, and it can be such a royal pain trying to discuss certain topics with all the malarkey overhead, you sometimes just don’t bother, so as to avoid the grief.
The reviews are brutal. OA Scott just said, “are you kidding me? “. The critics aren’t even bothered the outrage the film has received. They just aren’t bothered about it. Full stop.