Anne Thompson’s theory about how you build a Best Picture contender is that it’s done “branch by branch.” This was especially true back before the expanded ballot – from 1943-2008.
But one thing that has hasn’t changed much is that the director remains king, or queen as the case may be. Though it’s true that in the era of the expanded ballot, Picture and Director are more likely not to match. Why? Because in America – and perhaps everywhere – we are caught up in the Joseph Campbell idea of the “hero’s journey.” We like the story. We like the backstory almost more than we like the story on screen. Despite it being a tempest in a teapot, that Peter Farrelly directed Green Book, his first drama over a long career of doing mostly comedies, was a story.
Kathryn Bigelow being the first woman to win was a story. This whole “Three Amigos” scenario is a story. In fact, only one American-born director has won since Bigelow did it in 2009.
2010 – Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech (UK)
2011 – Michel Hazanivicious, The Artist (France)
2012 – Ang Lee, Life of Pi (American but born in Taiwan)
2013 – Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity (Mexico)
2014 – Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman (Mexico)
2015 – Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant (Mexico)
2016 – Damien Chazelle, La La Land (America)
2017 – Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water (Mexico)
2018 – Alfonso Cuaron (Mexico)
At some point, someone is going to look back at this era and marvel at the Three Amigos’ dominance of the Best Director race. It is really quite astonishing but it is also very much in keeping with the idea of the hero’s journey. Each of these three directors challenges and inspires one another, creating a kind of Mexican New Wave – at least where the Oscar race is concerned.
At this stage of our analysis, we have to back-burner Greta Gerwig for Little Women, Jay Roach for Bombshell, Clint Eastwood for Richard Jewell, Melina Matsoukas for Queen & Slim, and Sam Mendes for 1917 because they haven’t been seen yet.
This year, there are already a few directors with their own hero’s journey. There is Quentin Tarantino, one of America’s finest directors — ask people what their favorite film is and a large percentage of them will say Pulp Fiction. He is so highly revered, with such a legacy of influence behind him that it remains shocking he has never won Best Director. Then again, many of the best directors in film history haven’t won, like Alfred Hitchcock, Stanley Kubrick, Orson Welles, etc. So it isn’t exactly an indicator of greatness – but it does seem a little odd when someone goes so long without proper recognition from an awards body ostensibly rewarding high achievement in film. Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is his most nostalgic film to date, and the third in a revenge trilogy that began with Inglourious Basterds, continued with Django Unchained and finishes with Once. It’s a hell of a hero’s journey because Once Upon a Time is his most personal film to date. And THAT is a story.
Then there is Martin Scorsese, who got a movie made that no old-school studio wanted to touch, and turned out a late-career masterpiece, a cap-off to a long relationship with mafia movies and the legacy he lives with as both someone who is deeply Catholic but also a guy who made Goodfellas and Taxi Driver. Scorsese is a cinematic hero by any definition but to come in late like this with a movie like this? THAT is a story.
Right behind him, win, lose or draw is Todd Phillips for Joker, which won the Golden Lion in Venice. He created a shitstorm of controversy around his film but he’s also a guy known mainly for comedy, and someone who broke down the convention of the comic book superhero movie and made a horror film. It has already raked in $113 million in its first week. But it’s the controversy the film has created that will leave the most lasting legacy. Whether he gets in or not, he’s got a hero’s journey of sorts underway. We’ll have to wait and see how it turns out but I would not be surprised if he’s one of the five left standing at the end.
Bong Joon-Ho is renowned for films like The Host, Snowpiercer, and Okja but with Parasite he has made arguably his best. It’s the best film about class – the haves and the have-nots and the takers and those who pay allegiance to the state only to have the state abandon them. Like most of his films, you don’t really know what kind of film you’re watching until at some point a portal opens and a whole other movie appears, It’s like a Russian doll, a story within a story with a wild finish. The best thing about Parasite is the film’s last riveting 30 minutes. It is a masterpiece. Without a doubt. It came out of nowhere and is the film most people can’t stop talking about. THAT is a story.
Taika Waititi made his biggest film with Thor: Ragnarok. But he takes such stylistic risks in Jojo Rabbit, which is as sentimental as any children’s book but adds the disturbing element of Adolph Hitler bounding in and out as an imaginary friend. This is a film about good and evil going to battle inside the heart of a ten-year-old boy. This film is so wildly imaginative, so creatively free it’s a big deal that he came from the superhero universe back down to earth, back down to human things. That is a story.
Andrew Milligan/PA Wire (Photo by Andrew Milligan/PA Images via Getty Images)Sam Mendes is taking on a hell of a challenge with his 1917 that will seem to unfold in one continuous take. The trailer itself is breathtaking. The war epic will drop some time later this year but it’s worth noting that it’s been a long while since Mendes was properly honored. After having won way back when for American Beauty, he hasn’t been on Oscar’s radar since. His films have come very close, like Road to Perdition, Jarhead, Revolutionary Road, but then he directed Skyfall and Spectre before taking on what is arguably his biggest ever challenge as a director. Can he pull it off? We’ll have to wait and see but THAT is a story.
By the same token, Rian Johnson also came from the Star Wars universe back down to earth to make Knives Out, which is just starting to be seen and talked about. But it will fit with Waititi and Todd Phillips going from big to small, or at least genre hopping and potentially landing in the Oscar race.
Craig Brewer made Dolemite is My Name at Netflix because no one else would make the movie. Even with Eddie Murphy, who gives what has to be one of the best performances of the year, as the star – the big 5 studios balked. Probably because they had no idea what they really had with Dolemite – the combination of writing, directing and acting JUST WORKS. That it’s the fourth of the Netflix movies is a heartbreaker because it might not get in because there are too many films from one studio. But Brewer’s vision of Dolemite is memorable because of how deep he takes it while never sacrificing how funny it is.
Noah Baumbach has made Marriage Story which might be his most personal film to date. He dives right into his life with Jennifer Jason Leigh: what caused them to break up, how they managed to co-parent their kid together. Any time a director goes that deep, or is that honest, it becomes itself a story.
You can make any director into a hero with a hero’s journey but in general it helps to know that going in. Sometimes the film itself can drive the win, and the director has nothing to do with it. But usually, the director has everything to do with it — when he or she is rewarded at the end of the year, it is often for both the story and the film.
There are two big chances for a director to be nominated before the Oscars. The Golden Globes and the DGA. By far, the DGA is the biggest influencer, especially for Best Picture.
In the era of the expanded ballot, almost every Best Director nominee at the DGA and Oscar has gotten a corresponding Best Director nomination. There are only two I can think of who didn’t – David Fincher in 2011 for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo who got a DGA nod, and Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher, who got an Oscar nod. Other than that, every one of them has been nominated for Best Picture.
The winner of the Best Director race has never won without their film being nominated. But a few films have won recently in the era of the expanded ballot without their director being nominated – that’s 2012’s Argo and 2018’s Green Book. Before Argo, the last time that happened was Ye Aulde Driving Miss Daisy stat way back in 1989. It’s rare, but it happens. Predicting Green Book was a tough call last year, but some of us got the job done. Cough cough.
The DGA has around 16,000 members. The Academy’s directors branch has just around 400. It’s rare to have them match 5 for 5. Last year both Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born and Peter Farrelly for Green Book were nominated at the DGA, but were replaced at the Oscars by Pawel Pawlikowski for Cold War, and Yorgos Lanthimos for The Favourite. I personally would not have made those swaps but that’s how they roll. However, whatever movie is going to win Best Picture, it always has had a DGA nomination even when it didn’t have an Oscar nomination, like Argo and Green Book.
Thus, when predicting DGA think Best Picture. When predicting Oscar Best Director, think Best Director. For instance, one can envision a scenario where the more popular FILMS get in for DGA. Let’s take Todd Phillips for Joker. Conventional wisdom says he would be in for DGA more so than Oscar. And maybe that’s true. It’s hard to parse how his story will land — I could see him hitting one or the other, or neither. Or both. We just don’t know right now.
Look at a movie like The Favourite last year – it didn’t get in for DGA but it ended up with 10 nominations. Sometimes you just have no idea how something will play out.
The Woman thing
Women are traditionally shut out of the Best Director race except for every once in a while. Greta Gerwig got in for Lady Bird and could be up again for Little Women. Gerwig adapted Little Women and also directs one of the most famous female empowerment stories in American literary history, and Gerwig will likely give it a modern twist.
Melina Matsoukas (Queen & Slim), Olivia Wilde (Booksmart) and Nisha Ganatra (Late Night) have all made films that really walk the walk, I gotta say. They are all scripts written by women, starring women, and are about women. Of the three, the best directed film is Queen & Slim. Matsoukas spent her career making music videos — she thinks visually, which is why the film is so beautifully composed. All three of these films feature truly remarkable female characters of the kind not often seen in film. They should not end this year unrecognized. This is a milestone, and clear effort by many to point the ship in the direction of women. That Booksmart and Late Night didn’t make enough money to “matter” shouldn’t prevent them from being lauded by year’s end.
The way this usually goes is that critics, bloggers, and industry can’t agree on one single woman so none get in, as happened last year when loyalties were divided all over the place. Why is this? It just is. Even now, when I asked my Twitter followers for their predicted five, they came in with different women — like Lulu Wang and Greta Gerwig. But this story isn’t yet told and of all of them, Gerwig comes in with the most heft, having been nominated already before.
Which directors feel like the surest bets for me for DGA right now?
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
I base the inclusion of the last two on how well they did in Toronto. Parasite is a huge word-of-mouth success and likely won’t drop off. Scorsese is Scorsese. Tarantino is Tarantino.
But right one the edge for DGA would be:
Todd Phillips, Joker (just a hunch)
Craig Brewer, Dolemite is my Name (another hunch)
Then for Oscar — remember, leaving off those that haven’t been seen yet, it might look something like:
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Marielle Heller, Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
But it is entirely too soon to say. There are so many factors that will be at play. How the films are received by critics and by the public will factor into it. Will there be shitstorms?
Other strong contenders include:
Trey Edward Shults, Waves
Terrence Malick, A Hidden Life
Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes
James Mangold, Ford V. Ferrari
Melina Matsoukas, Queen & Slim
The Safdie brothers, Uncut Gems
James Gray, Ad Astra
Jordan Peele, Us
Destin Daniel Cretton, Just Mercy
Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Pedro Almodovar, Pain & Glory
Not yet seen but very well might dominate:
Sam Mendes, 1917
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Jay Roach, Bombshell
Clint Eastwood, Richard Jewell
Melina Matsoukas, Queen & Slim
We have what appears to be a core base with Tarantino, Scorsese, and Bong Joon-Ho. That leaves two slots open. Two slots.
