Bombshell finally screened yesterday in Los Angeles, followed by Q&As with Nicole Kidman, Margot Robbie, and the star and producer, Charlize Theron. The pic is directed by Jay Roach and written by Charles Randolph. Formal reviews are embargoed until the film’s release in December but I don’t think I’m breaking an embargo to talk about the film’s impact on the Oscar race.
The crowd ate up the film at both screenings and what a treat to see a film like this in the race, a thriller-like film about such a serious subject as sexual harassment, driven by women. You often forget how great it is to watch women on screen and this year there is an abundance of these all-female ensembles — like Hustlers and the upcoming Little Women. Bombshell is the kind of film you might have seen in the 1940s, with powerhouse performances by divas throughout.
Charlize Theron is known as a shapeshifter, as are Margot Robbie and Nicole Kidman. Many of the actors in Bombshell shapeshift, with the help of makeup, to transform themselves into the near-mythic figures we all know on Fox News. It is, indeed, its own tragic delusional universe but what fun it is to watch this team put that all together.
Two films that are currently under embargo will likely figure into the acting races — Queen & Slim and now, Bombshell. Both feature top-notch performances by actresses who are in line for a nomination. We are also waiting to see Little Women, which will move the pieces around even more in the lead and supporting actress race.
The first thing to know about Bombshell is that it’s a SAG juggernaut. It’s an ensemble piece with some of the biggest names in the biz. How SAG ensemble will go, since joining with AFTRA, is a little harder to predict — but if I had to guess right now, leaving out Little Women for the moment, these nominations seem like good bets:
Bombshell
Dolemite is My Name
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Jojo Rabbit
Also possible:
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
Hustlers
The Farewell
Us
And still waiting for:
1917
Little Women
Richard Jewell
Because Charlize disappears into the role of Megan Kelly she is a force to be reckoned with in the Best Actress race. It will depend on how well the Academy likes the movie overall, but if we’re talking actors, this is exactly the kind of actor-driven movie the Academy, and SAG, likes to reward. Why, because it doesn’t give any role the short shrift. Even the cameos are fully realized impressions of people we all know really well even if we aren’t Fox News viewers.
Margot Robbie is the stand-out in supporting because hers is the stronger character arc. She’s just a few moves to the left of a lead performance and indeed has so much star power she often tips any film she’s in in her direction. And she, like Scarlett Johansson, is going to be in two Best Picture juggernauts this year.
Margot Robbie is exactly the kind of actress Hollywood likes to reward — an up and comer who is hotter than hot. It’s a little more difficult for veterans to claim the prize and I wonder if this will be a showdown between Laura Dern and Robbie. It’s too soon to say because there is so much at play.
Nicole Kidman is another who could factor into the race playing Gretchen Carlson. Kidman is, as usual, fantastic but she doesn’t have quite the same screen time as Robbie. All three of the leads are standout performances from actresses operating at the peak of their talents.
Best Actress right now (to me) is looking like:
Renee Zellweger, Judy
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen & Slim
Then it’s:
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Alfre Woodard, Clemency
That is how I currently see it, though Saoirse Ronan in Little Women will likely supplant one of these.
In supporting, I see it looking like:
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Dolemite is My Name
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Alt – Shuzhen Zhao, The Farewell
And again, Little Women might land a few names in the supporting category too.
There are no male leads in Bombshell but there are strong supporting male characters. At the top of the list is John Lithgow as the supervillain, Roger Ailes. He should figure into the supporting race. It should be mentioned that Donald Trump is also a supporting player but as himself.
There is much more to say about the movie, about how it addresses sexual harassment, but that will have to wait until a later date.
Dolemite for ensemble? Sasha’s pushing the film, she clearly loves it. I’m looking forward to seeing it but as for now I dont really think it will break the SAG ensemble nom list
The race is so tight this year, at least as far as SAG Ensemble is concerned. No room for oddball nominations when there are so many prime contenders to choose from. Best Actress is still Zellweger’s to lose but it’s nice to know she will have competition. That can only make her win even more meaningful.
Well, the trailer just dropped on indiwire, and it definitely doesn’t look like a Best Picture contender, and I may be wrong, but they are trying to sell the film as a comedy. Lithgow into full make up.
I couldn’t finish it. was bored. I guess it’s for people who know the story but I’m really not interested to learn more. Good luck to actresses, though.
So psyched to see this. And the stellar reactions have me even more excited than before.
How I see Supporting Actress at the moment:
Dern
JLo
Robbie – Bombshell
Smith – but she won’t campaign
Zhao – could be a thing, could not be
———–
Randolph, Pugh, McKenzie and even Kidman right in there.
Just saw the official trailer for the film and I’d definitely rank Margot in my predictions higher than J. Lo. In fact, I feel like she’s about to give Dern one hell of a battle for the win.
Also, I’m impressed Scarlett Johansson for Jojo Rabbit is nowhere to be seen in your predictions. Do you really feel Kidman has more chances than her ’cause I personally doubt it.
I think Dern and Robbie are the top two now. JLo and Benning Zhao might make take the final.
Good calls, I definitely feel like Margot is above J. Lo and frankly, rightfully so.
I have to admit that Theron vs Robbie vs Kidman in the same film sounds a wet dream for any cinephile, at this point. I was in doubt if Jay Roach could deliver a Best Picture worthy film but it seems he could, so…
Supporting Actress (readjusted race)
1. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (we can forget about OUATIH)
2. Laura Dern, Marriage Story
3. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
4. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit
5. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
6. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
7. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
8. Penelope Cruz, Pain and Glory
9. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbie
10. Janelle Moane, Harriet
So I was just looking at my predictions and there is a real chance that we get another #Oscarssowhite year this year (with acting which is what the hashtag was predominantly about). The male races feel very likely to be completely white unless Sterling K Brown or Jamie Foxx get into supporting (which I doubt) or Eddie Murphy in lead (which I also doubt) so in order to avoid it we need to look to the female races. Actually I guess I should mention Waititi but I think he’ll have too much internal competition because there are so many good supporting male roles in that film so I don’t see him getting nominated (I wouldn’t nominate him, even though he’s great I’d put Rockwell and Yates ahead of him).
The Farewell has Awkwafina and Zhao and I really hope that movie lasts because it’s brilliant but I keep getting more and more concerned that it peaked too early! To make room for Theron I just removed Erivo from my actress lineup so Awkwafina is the lone person of colour but Erivo is the other possibility there (or Woodard or Nyong’o but I don’t see enough of the academy watching their films). There is also Turner-Smith from Queen and Slim if that all turns out. That’s the race that really feels like it’ll save us from #oscarssowhite but it feels like a bunch of people of colour fighting for the last 1 or 2 slots.
Supporting as I said we have Zhao but if the Farewell fades she will too, I don’t know if I believe the Lopez hype since that movie is going to get a label ‘the stripper movie’ which will put some people off – plus it’s a great movie but it’s 100% popcorn and really isn’t that deep… But that is a possibility… Beyond that it’s all white people – especially with Bombshell now being a real thing and if Little Women makes a splash.
I don’t think it’ll happen – I think we’ll be saved by the best actress race since positions 5-7 all seem to be people of colour but I really do think it’ll be at best 18/20 white people and there is a real path for a #oscarssowhite if certain films and roles don’t land with the academy!
It’d be nice if Jonathan Majors (The Last Black Man in San Francisco) got nominated for Best Supporting Actor, along with the film’s score by Emile Mosseri in Best Original Score.
Man, that score.
And if #OscarsSoWhite happens, that is just more votes for Bong Joon-ho.
I’d love for Kang-Ho Song to be in the supporting actor conversation!
And possibly Jo Yeo-jeong in Supporting Actress. But they must REALLY love the movie to see either one getting in. They are on big billboards in Hollywood, and no one else from the cast.
At least they are really clear on who they are campaigning! if they were trying to get all of their then definitely none would happen (they still probably won’t but still at least there’s a chance).
You guys have been stating that every year is going to be another OscarsSoWhite every year, and the proclamations that it is going to happen seems to be more of what you want to happen than what is reality.
To be fair I didn’t state that it will happen – I even said it probably won’t but I don’t see the harm in discussing the diversity in the race year upon year, though this is the first time I’ve ever written a post like this since the last few years had no chance because there were people of colour in frontrunner positions (which isn’t the case this year).
It is the same conventional wisdom that makes you people so predictable.You guys keep supporting the same kind of movies all the time. Social causes, race relationships, rich-poor conflict or top auteur films. This makes the movie pool all the same every year. So your top 10 is horrible. Risk taking epic scale movies will be given more priority over artsy fartsy small movies that no one gives a shit about this year.
“You guys keep supporting the same kind of movies all the time. Social causes, race relationships, rich-poor conflict or top auteur films.”
And what exactly is the problem there ? You have just described some of the most fascinating, relevant and relatable aspects of the human condition. If we are interested in films about those things, well, that’s not a bad thing. And especially not something you should feel entitled to judge. After all nobody tells you, either, what movies to care for so why should you tell others ?
i don’t wanna see another movie where certain class of society is being oppressed get awards recognition. Top auteurs have become more and more male driven in their films. They are not taking risks. They are just making different movies with the same DNA in them. It is too predictable. But i recently noticed that industry is veering off from this canned nominees selection process. They are getting interesting nominees. Bohemian Rhapsody , even if its not great, there is something about that movie that is very different for an oscar nominee.
I don’t want movies like parasite being shoved down just because critics are trying to push a foreign movie into main oscar race.
Many of these “awards pundits” and reporters are not exactly swimming in money. Lot of them are just barely making it. So they relate to some kind of underdog element in a story that is small in scale. So any movie that feels like its reliant on movie stars and not directed by top auteurs is not given respect. It results in crap like the favorite which straight male teenager in the world gives a crap about the favorite.
And this is why we might as well just agree to disagree now because there is absolutely no way we will ever see eye to eye here. For the record a film like Parasite isn’t solely in BP consideration because it is from an auteur in a foreign language and supporting it makes voters / pundits feel edgy, it is primarily in consideration because it is a fucking masterpiece.
But of course you will never know that because you will never ever be willing to see it. You won’t need to, you are perfectly comfortable trashing films sight unseen based on your agenda alone which is supremely ironic seeing how you keep accusing everyone and their mother of having an agenda when they have the nerve to be vocal about their love for a film, or more like a type of film, that you just simply can’t tolerate on distinctively questionable grounds.
But when one dares to form a negative opinion on a film one has actually seen, BUT a film that you love, then oh, it must be because that person is just not as evolved as you and can’t spot greatness as well as you do, it couldn’t possibly be that film like any other art form is just subjective and what is great for you, doesn’t necessarily have to be great for everyone else and vice versa.
I mean ffs, time for you to get a grip here.
Wait, you want more interesting films in the race, but NOT Parasite?
But a sing-along, highlights-reel biopic film is your idea of something different?
To each his own, I guess.
‘Parasite’ is not being shoved down anyone’s throat. It’s being praised because it’s awesome, one of the best films of the year, on par with previous Oscar nominees, even better, and it’s also quite accessible and therefore enjoyable by foreign audiences, which explains part of its success.
there is something very korean about that movie. That enhances the experience of the movie. That colors the opinion about the movie. What could be so hard to believe for american audience could be very mundane for koreans. No one is looking at it that way. It must have been hard for danny boyle to make slumdog or ang lee to make broke back than for bong to make parasite.
What on earth does that mean? That cultural differences make Americans think that Parasite is good even though it’s not? That making a movie that Americans like from an American point of view is more difficult than making it from a Korean perspective? Or that for a non-American director to make a genuine achievement, they need to make movies that have an American approach? This is art, these are movies, there is no “one correct point of view” to look at films through. What works works.
And it’s not like the Academy has been nominating only non-American films in its history, less than 2% (10/554) of all Oscar nominees for best picture have been in other languages than English, and just last year the Academy could have nominated Burning for all sorts of things because it was the best film of last year but they didn’t because the Oscars ignore masterpieces every year just because they don’t like to read subtitles. So whining about how it’s unimpressive or a lesser achievement for a director to get nominated for something that’s not in English is garbage because it is always a higher achievement, requires incredible amounts of work and demands a film that’s genuinely masterful in order for these lazy awards to manage to even glance in their direction while the most idiotic films keep getting votes for hitting the same unimpressive notes in as boring ways as always.
Scorsese and other great directors have only made American films, so that must make their not so great. Fellini made only Italian film; Bergman made only Swedish films; Kurosawa made only Japanese film and so on. It’s just too ridiculous.
I wish the noisy and sometimes angry Oscar prediction industry/blogosphere would stop imposing premature, overhyped, and often politicized expectations on yet unseen films, setting many of them up for failure upon arrival. I wish early supporters of films like The Goldfinch would loudly admit “We. Were. Wrong.” when faced with having dished out poor predictions.
Then again was The Goldfinch ever predicted by anyone ?
I saw it included in several Best Picture categories across multiple Oscar pundit sites, both pro and amateur, for months prior to TIFF.
Charlize transformation into Kelly is insane not just physically but her voice, mannerisms it almost scary!! She disappears into it in a spectacular way, she became the character owns it, the same way she did it with Aileen Wurnous, her body of work is incredible, with all the versatile iconic characters that she has created and the risks she has taken to play them, from Monster to Tully to Mad Max to Young Adult to North Country to Bombshell….a truly brillant committed actress who deserves recognition.
She is just extraordinary and seems as terrific in this as ever.
I think that Johansson for Marriage Story is slowly getting behind as more contenders show up, Charlize is one of them. That will make more easier for Adam Driver and Laura Dern win, as the Academy Awards hasn’t been awarding more than two people in the same movie in acting categories for the past decade
Scar Jo is also great in JoJo (perhaps even better, accent aside?). That may give them a chance to reward her this year.
How is it going to be easier for Driver and/or Dern to win? Their wins depend on their category competition. Nobody’s gonna think “gee, I have to vote for X because I didn’t vote for Y form the same movie.”
They do have a trend of splitting. Just like recently they often split Best Picture and Best Director for two different movies (not always, but it has become very common)
Look it up the last time three or four acting went for the same movie. Lol this is widely known by everyone who knows a little about Oscars. Sasha Stone is one of these people.
Wait, are you saying they vote by going “I have to vote for Picture for I didn’t vote for Director or I have to vote for Actor for I didn’t vote for Actress”. I thought people vote for what they like the most or think makes the best winner, not to compensate for snubbing someone from another category but guess I’m wrong?
Yes they do that! Here is a link that should clarify things:
www. awardsdaily. com/2019/09/16/best-picture-the-preferential-ballot-and-the-picture-director-split/
Take a look at the last thing she wrote there.
In some cases, like the Festival of Venice, if I’m not mistaken it is a rule to give every award for a differente movie. Hence why Joaquin Phoenix did not win Best Actor. When they gave another actor the Volpi Cup, people on twitter were already going crazy (mostly DC fanboys) predicting that Joker would win Best Picture (the Golden Lion)
Thank you! Reading!
Sorry, I had not read this entirely before I sent this link to you and I had a different idea. Apparently, it also has a lot to do with the voting system, which is different for Best Picture and Best Actor, it has more to do with that than to people really wanting to give at least one award to every movie and thus purportedly voting different for every category (like you said).
Still a good read. I understood that preferential ballot (that exists only in Picture) leads to spreading the wealth but if they can think so in these 2 categories who’s to say they don’t in other?
This is why it is always problematic when people start making wild statements in September / October about certain contenders “who WILL win” or “will DEFINITELY get the nomination”. The cold hard truth is we don’t know shit this early on. We have some information but not nearly enough to draw proper conclusions.
And the late quintet proves why. Everyone seemed to have their solid BP predictions already when out of nowhere two very timely films that were nowhere near serious BP consideration, delivered very successful industry screenings (Bombshell, Queen and Slim) and three very textbook Oscar films with December release dates (Little Women, 1917, Richard Jewell) haven’t even been seen yet.
This is why I could never get behind something like “Jojo Rabbit will win!” because the truth is until we haven’t heard from all the players, we don’t know anything. Right now I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the late quintet (Bombshell, Queen & Slim, Little Women, 1917, Richard Jewell) ALL delivered so considering all five would be then contenders in picture, directing, writing, acting, where would that leave all the early contenders ?
Emphasis on this. It’s not even Oct. 15. We’ve got a LONG way to go.
One thing is for sure, not one of them will pick the slot already take by the locks OUATIH, Irishman, Joker and Marriage Story
Lock that gate. It’s over. I think not.
Sorry for acting like a gatekeeper, but can you imagine Queen & Slim getting a nom and The Irishman for instance (100% on rotten) missing?
No, I am just saying that we must limit the options of films and performances that can get in. Clearly the bigger they are and louder buzz they have, they more likely they are to get in. It’s too early to say lock or to eliminate certain films.
I am just saying that Queen & Slim is 99% likely to get less buzz than the latest Tarantino and The Irishman
Yeah, but let’s not shutout a film that cold be better them or at least deserves a BP nom. Let’s remember that louder is not better. We’re going through a period in films as well as politics where the louder and more obscene you are the more attention you get. When you have a president like Trump, you get a film like Joker.
I don’t think it will be as stark and obvious like “either Queen & Slim gets into BP or The Irishman does”.
I expect it to be more like “oh, shit, so Richard Jewell is a thing now, that kinda means we need to make room for relative unknown under the radar player Paul Walter Hauser in Best Actor, but who gets the axe then ? Well, probably not Phoenix or Driver who could win, also not Banderas who has an epic role and can’t be denied his career first nomination this time around, so could one of the Oscar-winning legends (DiCaprio, De Niro) who are expected to get the nod but are not expected to win anyway get the axe ? Maybe”.
If the late quintet delivers, that will upend ALL main categories, not just BP. But for the record there are up to 10 slots in Best Picture so even if the entire late quintet (unlikely) makes the BP cut (Queen & Slim, Bombshell, Little Women, 1917, Richard Jewell) that still doesn’t mean the early frontrunners won’t be in there with them (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, The Irishman, Marriage Story, Parasite, The Farewell).
The ones who would be in bigger trouble are the BP contenders who at the moment, even before the arrival of the late quintet, already feel like filler BP nominees thus could be knocked out that much easier if the late ones deliver. Those at risk are probably the ones that have mediocre critical consensus (Joker, Jojo Rabbit) or face massive internal competition from other films from their studio (The Two Popes, Dolemite is my Name).
Yet OUATIH most likely lost a category this weekend because Robbie’s main Oscar bid this season will be probably Bombshell.
I do agree though that OUATIH, The Irishman and Marriage Story look strong enough in BP but I also think Joker is prime example of a relatively early contender that may have peaked too early especially if the late entries all deliver. If the Oscars were tomorrow, it would probably get a BP nod, but the Oscars are in four months. Joker could still make it but it will have much more intense competition by the time voting starts and its reviews and controversies will be obstacles. Not necessarily ones it can’t overcome, but definitely ones we can’t ignore when talking about its Oscar chances.
Joker has the box office. Oscar needs audience. It helped Bohemian rhapsody get there this year.
Also, thosee predicting Phoenix as frontrunner NEED to have Joker in their lineup – for the past 10 years best actor winner also had their movies in best picture
But Bohemian Rhapsody was in a genre the Academy loves (biopic).
Joker is in a genre the Academy loves to hate. In the same genre, Black Panther had much better Box Office, flat out rave reviews and it could still “only” muster a filler BP nod and tech nods / awards.
Joker will probably have at least one nod in an above-the-line category (Phoenix) but the rest is still very much up in the air. If Black Panther or The Dark Knight with MUCH better reviews and Box Office, couldn’t crack the writing / directing categories, how can we expect Joker to pull it off ? That’s the reason why I don’t expect it to.
As I have said before, I firmly believe its absolute best case scenario is a filler BP nod, a Phoenix victory and nominations in a few tech categories. Anything more would be a massive shock based on precedent.
For the record, I’m not saying it won’t get in, I’m saying it won’t have as easy of a path to that BP nod as many assume.
“couldn’t crack the writing / directing categories, how can we expect Joker to pull it off ?”
I’m not saying this is getting writing and directing. But it will get Best Picture for sure. Regarding Dark Knight, it was released in a year only 5 movies were allowed in best picture.
The preferential system favours divisive films so Joker will only need a few hundred #1 votes to make the cut in BP and that is doable. But it will greatly depend on what happens with the late quintet. If all five get rave reviews and BP consideration then films like Joker, Jojo Rabbit and The Two Popes will be in trouble in my opinion.
These quintet movies also need to have box office… Academy nominates one or two movies which are box office hits every year and Bohemian benefitted from that. Take a look at If Beale Street Could Talk, even with all the acclaim it failed to get an Oscar nod much due to the fact that it flopped hard.
I don’t think they are comparable. Beale Street was an indie film in limited release.
Bombshell (Lionsgate), Queen & Slim (Universal), Little Women (Sony), Richard Jewell (WB), 1917 (Universal) are studio releases that are expected to go wide.
How was Margot Robbie getting nominated for OUATIH anyway? For looking her beautiful self and mastering a few Kung-fu moves and, SPOILER, NOT dying? That was never happening regardless.
Do they show her pregnant. Tate was far along when she was murdered.
Yeah, but there’s no story arc. Bloggers are just doing their usual creaming over superstars in big films. Same with JLO – though I haven’t seen it, I (“)know(“) they won’t nominate her.
If they didn’t change the ending and showed Tate being killed that would have been good Oscar material for her. She begged them not to kill her and her unborn child.
Kind of stupid to market her supporting anyway when this movie is split among the three Leads. Not that she’s lead, but at least Dern and probably Bening are true supporting roles in ensemble films. Putting her and Brad in supporting to try to win there is as ridiculous as…well, Ali’s second Oscar.
They should not allow leading roles into supporting. Also though it doesn’t happen as often a supporting role in lead. There should be a time limit if you go over you aren’t supporting.
I just all three actresses will get nominations
On the Supporting Actor side, oh how I wish Kong-Ho Song was in the running.
He could get a surprise nomination, if the Academy loves his film so much. Almost any viable nomination in BP gets a nomination unless they’re in a tech juggernaut.
yeah, he can make a surprise appearance like La Tavira/Aparicio.
Yes, but Parasite might not as big as Roma. I think he has a chance, and the season has only just began.
I think that people are waking up to the fact that Parasite isn’t just Foreign Picture play. Roma was positioned as Picture contender from the start. I think parasite is peaking at the right time.
Could indeed be. I don’t know how to read this, especially since South Korean films haven’t yet to be embraced as much as the recent breakthroughs for Mexican filmmakers over the last decade. But here’s to hoping it breaks the dam for South Korea art! I find the film pretty universal.
yep, that it’s universal is why it’s playing well with everyone. Big advantage there. Also, Ang Lee won Director twice so they are fine with awarding Asian talent and SK is now a big boxoffice market for Hollywood movies.
I still bet on Dern for Best Supporting Actress win. She looks like the only real lock in Supporting, and Marriage Story is a strong best picture contender – which I don’t see Bombshell being. And Dern besides all, also has a killer monologue in the end. Robbie will split votes with herself – For both Bombshell and Once Upon a time in Hollywood -. I see a nomination happening, but not a win. Also, people look to be understmating Bening’s chances, who has an acclaimed performance in “The Report”, and is positioned 2nd place in the general overview of Goldberdy. It is also important to highlight that Bening always has the good will of some critics groups too – Like National Board of Review and New York. I would put her and Dern as sure locks. “Bombshell” looks like Theron’s film, and I don’t see it sneaking into the Best Picture race the way “Vice” did. Besides, the December 20th release, for an Oscar voting that starts on January 2, doesn’t help. My top five for Best Supporting Actress at the moment would be:
1- Dern
2 – Bening
3 – Lopez
4 – Robbie (for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, this looks like a filler nomination)
5 – Johansson (for Jojo)
I can see a perfect scenario with these five ladies.
(And if Eastwood’s film does well, watch out for Bates)
Supporting Actress is heating up all of a sudden and we haven’t even got to Little Women yet. It could be the year for the two top veterans.
If Dern, Robbie and Johansson make the cut, there is a chance ALL three will be also in two BP contenders this season that would be very cool. Also, strong cases could be made for and against all three :
1. Dern is a revered, beloved veteran who should have won already and is having a career best year with two potential BP nominees (Marriage Story, Little Women) and an epic scene-stealing part in Big Little Lies. BUT unlike her competition including one playing a heroic mother hiding a Jewish girl in Nazy Germany and another playing a whistleblower brave enough to go against a billion-dollar company with sexual harassment seeped deep into their culture; Dern’s role in Marriage Story doesn’t have much of a cultural significance and her role is also a proper supporting role with little screentime while the other two are almost co-leads. Also few people factor this in but she COULD split votes with herself : she will be up for the SAG, Golden Globe and Critics Choice awards on the television side with Big Little Lies, so if those three precursors opt out of giving her two awards in the same year and just give her one for her tv work, that could hurt her awards bid on the film side.
2. Johansson is the highest-grossing female Box Office star of all time, she has never been even nominated before even though delivered at least 10 performances in the last two decades that would have been worthy and now she, just like Dern, is ALSO having a career-best year with two potential BP nominees (Marriage Story, Jojo Rabbit) and the highest-grossing film of all time (Endgame). BUT if she does get two nominations, she could cancel herself out for the win in the end since her competition will be collecting votes in only one category while she could be splitting votes with herself, not to mention Jojo Rabbit doesn’t seem to have the reviews necessary for major Oscar consideration. It could still get there, but it doesn’t look that good at this very moment.
3. Robbie, just like her competition, is also in two potentially strong BP contenders (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Bombshell) and she also plays the most timely and zeitgeist-y role of the three, as well. While an ingenue compared to the decades of experience of her competition, she is no beginner, either : she is a previous nominee in Lead, she has her own franchise and she has been already snubbed by the Academy several times already (brilliant character actress work in both The Wolf of Wall Street and Mary, Queen of Scots). Long story short, a win for her for this very timely film would be easily justified. Also, unlike Dern and Johansson, she will be collecting votes only in one category at the American televised precursors (SAG, Golden Globe, Critics Choice) and that could make all the difference in the end.
That’s how I see the presumed top3 in Supporting Actress. Then again it is mid-October, for all we know a massive Lopez campaign could get her all the way to the podium just as well OR the realisation that this could be the last chance to give another Oscar to Maggie Smith could result a surprise win, too, OR precursors could just unanimously stand behind four-time nominee Bening who should have won her first Oscar ages ago. We just can’t know at this point.
For what it’s worth it will be most definitely an intense category this year.
I don’t think Bombshell will be a Best Picture contender. I do see the film as a divisive one, and it is even starting to colect some backlash on twitter. I see Robbie nominated for “Hollywood”, in which looks like a filler nomination. And just an observation: Dern can not compete against her in the SAG Awards, because SAG has no Supporting Actress for Series. I don’t think she will lose this and my theory basis on it: Besides Dern being consider the early frontrunner, she has a strong performance in Marriage Story and an Oscar scene with a monologue in the end. She is an Academy Governor and for 2 times was considered to lead the Academy. She is doing the circuit very hard and will be the spotlight of Gotham Awards with a carreer honor. I mean, I don’t think this can be compared to a Glenn Close case, because for me the main cause Close lost, was that members clear didn’t watch or didn’t like “The Wife”. But with Marriage Story is different: they mostly love the film, respect the film and seems wanting to reward the film. Academy and Guild Members don’t watch many films. I know at least some of them, and as they are working industry members, they are mostly busy and only watch the films they think it can win something. So, they will watch Marriage Story for sure, but not all of them will watch “Bombshell” – who opens December 20, and Oscar voting starts January 2 – or ‘Hustlers” or “Jojo” for example. And I don’t expect ‘Bombshell” to do well with the old male conservative contingent of the Academy. Besides, remember that Dern got a nomination for “Wild”, which came from nowhere. It shows that she has love in the Academy. A
Dern could very well get a nod and win a SAG for Big Little Lies, they may not have supporting categories on the tv side but that have never stopped scenestealing supporting / big ensemble players before, almost half the time the winner turns out to be someone who is otherwise a supporting contender.
On the drama side that includes Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey), Chandra Wilson (Grey’s Anatomy), Sandra Oh (Grey’s Anatomy), Allison Janney (The West Wing (2x), Julianna Margulies (E.R. (2x).
On the comedy side Uzo Aduba (Orange is the New Black (2x), Betty White (Hot in Cleveland (2x), Megan Mullally (Will & Grace (3x), Lisa Kudrow (Friends), Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Seinfeld (2x) and Christine Baranski (Cybill).
Long story short I fully expect Laura Dern to make the cut for Big Little Lies S2. Especially since she did get the nod for S1, as well, and her role was expanded and received even more acclaim and fanfare the second time around.
What’s going on with Annette Bening? She would steal votes from Dern as the overdue winner. Love, love Dern, but don’t see her winning for this performance. It’s way too similar to Renata Klein and too small. No big, rangy scene. Of course, Regina King proved stats and range don’t matter if you’re beloved. But I don’t think people will watch Marriage Story and come out thinking they should vote for Laura Dern to win the Oscar just for playing the stereotypical shark divorce lawyer.
Wow, I can’t believe the praise Charlize is getting once again for what is probably ANOTHER PHENOMENAL PERFORMANCE BY CHARLIZE THERON. It’s so crazy, so, so damn unfair that this powerhouse of an actor hasn’t been nominated at The Oscars since 2007 (North Country). After Young Adult? Mad Max: Fury Road? Tully? Like wtf… She should have been a two / three time winner and at least 5 time nominee already.
I’m also extremely happy to hear Margot is so impressive in her part (to no one’s surprise at this point), especially in such a great year for her with this and her wonderful OUATIH turn as Sharon Tate as well.
Has anyone seen both Bombshell and Marriage Story and who do they think is Renee’s biggest rival for the trophy? And what about Saoirse and Little Women? I read that the film had a test screening for only a few people.. Has anyone seen it / what do they think about Saoirse’s chances?
I haven’t seen Bombshell. But having seen Judy and Marriage Story now, I think Renee is in good position (though, I’m on record for not being a big Marriage Story fan, overall). Marriage Story is, in my view, told from Adam Driver’s perspective. Whereas, Judy is clearly Renee’s film.
Is he getting nominated? Goldderby Forum considers him the biggest competition to Phoenix.
Well, Renee definitely seems to be the obvious, Oscar – bait, “safe” choice. I can’t wait to see both Judy and Marriage Story, although it’s definitely the latter I truly can’t wait to see and can already tell is incredible.
Even though I didn’t like Marriage Story, (and I was excited for it), I hope you do. (I always like when people like films versus when they don’t, even if I didn’t). Do share your thoughts once you’ve seen both films!
That’s a great way to see art in general so kudos to you for that and yes, I’d be happy to share my thoughts once I see both films. I’m a huge Noah Baumbach fan, I truly adore the tone of his films and judging by whatever I’ve seen / read about Marriage Story, it looks to me as one of his best.
Renee has always been a wonderful actress but I tend to not LOVE too bait-y stuff in general. Anyway, I really can’t wait to see both films and I hope this season keeps surprising us film lovers with exciting films and performances.
Bombshell, Harriet, Just Mercy, Richard Jewell are Baits 101 too.
I too tend to not like “Oscar bait” films – after all, my favs this year are Parasite and Pain and Glory. Judy is that, but I thought her performance really was great. Perhaps not my top choice but very good and the type that wins. Why I was also surprised I really liked Two Popes (although, it’s not perfect by any means)…and JoJo Rabbit.
I can safely say Parasite ranks to me not only as this year’s best film but one of the greatest of the last 20 years or something.. Pain and Glory is a film I can’t wait to see as well.
I’d agree. We may not agree on these, but Parasite, Amour, There Will Be Blood, etc. rank as a few films of the last decade or so that “stand above” to me.
I think you’ll like Pain and Glory.
Is he getting nominated? Goldderby Forum considers him the biggest competition to Phoenix.
Probably. It’s more of his movie and he has the showy scenes. Winning? At this moment, no, but if Joker fades, I suppose.
Thanks!
So just because you’re not a fan of Marriage Story, neither Driver or Dern will win, even though pundits, oddsmakers currently have them as frontrunners.
I didn’t say that. In fact, it’s the opposite. I’m saying Driver may currently be 2nd to a clear frontrunner. I’ve also said Dern was wonderful and could win. I just don’t think there’s a clear leader in Supporting Actress. You keep citing the pundits, but it’s October. No one has voted yet. As Sasha notes, a lot is at play. That’s all I’m saying. But, yes, as a non fan of the film, I’m saying both could win. To me, that’s honest, transparent and of high praise for their performances.
This. I’d rather hear opinion from a non-stan than from a stan.
Nope. You had said you didn’t think Laura Dern was going to win because she wasn’t a standout in the film. And you just said that Adam Driver isn’t winning.
I’ve said I think Phoenix is the favorite in other posts, and, I wasn’t currently predicting Driver to win, but if Joker fades, I suppose Driver could win (see below). On Dern, I never said she wouldn’t win. Just that we disagreed that the race was open/vs hers, me on the former. I said she didn’t have a classic winning performance. But she does have “the scene,” and as you noted, she’s attached to a BP leader. And yes, she’s overdue. I’m just not wagering on either one to actually win this early. But, if asking, I’d agree Dern has a better chance than Driver at this point.
Dolemite Is My Name over Once Upon A Time…in Hollywood? Again, Sasha has three Netflix movies out of five this time for SAG. She is far smarter than me on these things but I just can’t get there.
I don’t think that’s likely either, but it’s not as clear cut as you make it sound. These three Netflix films are very different and the type of diverse films SAG goes for. You might be right and one of those Netflix will not make the short list, but I am as certain as you that it won’t be Marriage Story or the Irishman. I believe , and it seems to be Sasha’s view, too, that The Irishman, Marriage Story and Bombshell are big ensemble films with many great performances. The first two could get three nominees each and While Bombshell looks good for two. They could be the three SAG Ensemble nominees, but Bombshell still needs the reviews to be in. That leaves two spots for unheralded or underdog films.
I knew all along Theron would be winning Best Actress after watching how amazing she was at the first test screening. Cant wait to see the final edit.
I think she is now probably Zellweger’s biggest challenger. But I think it will be like last year in best lead actor. Bale was clearly better than Malek but the later was playing Mercury while the former was playing Cheney. Garland beats Kelly any day of the week. Ironically, I think Theron has strengthened Zellweger’s chances because people will be talking about the two head to head rather Johansson who is in a strong BP and is yet to win.
yep, this. people love Judy they don’t care for Megyn at least not in the way they care for the legend. I think Vice is a good comparison and I expect the movie to do about the same business this Xmas.
She won for Monster Aileen Wurnous was not a lovely character and personality, way more extreme
than Kelly, Judy has mixed reviews and i don’t think it will get a BP.
Yes, but when Theron played Wurnous, she wasn’t up against the someone who played a beloved film icon that year. This season she will be.
Also Judy didn’t get mixed reviews. It is at 83 on RT and 66 on MC, that’s the definition of “good” reviews, it is also quite the arthouse hit at the Box Office.
Bombshell, while promising based on early word, has yet to prove itself with both critics and audiences first. Hopefully it will deliver on both fronts but the fact is it hasn’t yet. Judy has.
So happy Theron is coming for the win. Its what she deserves.
Hell yeah, especially after the shameless way she was robbed of a second win, let alone a nomination, for Young Adult, Tully and Mad Max: Fury Road. Young Adult and Tully, I honestly don’t know how you don’t even nominate THAT kind of work.
yep
The one black spot I see with this film is that it has potential for massive backlash. Some on Twitter are already complaining that we shouldn’t be making this movie. I attach one tweet that represents what I saw quite a bit of
“I wouldn’t pay a penny to see this and I hope no one else does either. None of these women EVER deserved to be sexually harassed but that does not excuse the fact they’re all hate-peddlers who had zero compunction selling fox’s racist, divisive, bigoted propaganda for years.”
That’s not my take (I’ll see the movie before I say anything) but one I’m reading on Twitter a lot and I wonder whether it could become a big thing? Like will liberal voters vote for a film where the protagonists were fox news anchors – even if the antagonists are fox news anchors.
I don’t think the film will do well if the old male conservative contingent of The Academy. I don’t see a Best Picture nomination happening.
It’s in a difficult place where it could isolate both the liberal and conservative contingents but we shall see!
Valid concern however I think if VICE could score top nominations with mediocre reviews and with a story about real life people who had done truly deplorable deeds ; then BOMBSHELL will probably get a fair shot at it, as well, I mean its heroes aren’t perfect but they all did the right thing in the end at least unlike the VICE anti-heroes.
But the difference being Vice is negative about it’s subjects where I assume the subjects of bombshell are painted as heroines which may put people off because despite what happened to them they were still fox news anchors so yeah we will see where that falls with liberal voters – I’m not necessarily saying it will fall one way or another but that there is definitely space for a lot of backlash. We shall see.
I haven’t seen the film but from what I’ve heard, they are not portrayed as sympathetic heroines; their flaws, mistakes and shortcomings are supposed to be on full display. We will know if that’s the case once we see the film I guess.
Okay well maybe that will reduce it – I’m just looking at the tweets so I know very little… I’m just commenting that it’s the sort of film that could spark backlash. We shall see though! I’m looking forward to it regardless!
Agreed, a backlash against this film wouldn’t surprise me one bit. I’m just not expecting it to be big enough to hurt it all that much. Then again I could be way off here.
reviews for vice are agenda motivated…critics wanted their favorite movies to get in like first man, first reformed, can you ever forgive me and crap like that. So when a movie like vice comes in at the last minute and gets top nominations at globes they went even hard. But in the end vice prevailed.
IF YOU THINK REVIEWS FROM CRITICS 100% REFLECT THE QUALITY OF A MOVIE THEN YOU ARE WRONG. They reflect it 65-70%, beyond that critics have agenda they are trying to push like the indie director who they have been in love with for 10 years has made a oscary movie like marriage story and now they wanna lift him up and try to get him into oscar race. It all about them. Critics review especially certain groups of critics review movies to show their influence. Bombshell on the other hand was made to look like the big short so it automatically looses director nominations and The movie is too icky to get into major categories. The best I can see is couple of acting and may be screenplay.
Oh give it a break! Seriously you don’t have to jump in with hyperbole and endless ALL CAPS every time anyone so much as mentions a film staring Bale. Learn to chill out a bit, it really doesn’t matter that much
1. I never said “reviews from critics 100% reflect the quality of a movie”. I said that a similar film with mediocre reviews got serious Oscar love, suggesting that since reviews are a crucial factor in the Oscar game, that was quite the rare accomplishment.
2. How can you claim that a film you clearly haven’t seen is “too icky to get into major categories” ?
3. Vice was a mess. Performances were strong though.
the only reasonable way to cover the subject is to be slightly icky..if its not icky then its sugar coating. So its a loose-loose situation for the movie
“vice was a mess” because you are so accustomed to traditional “serious” lincoln-type garbage political biopics. So you don’t even know when something truly original comes out. Its intimidating just like some critics felt to see a movie that is telling something important but making fun of itself and everybody. Whatever is not familiar tends to be labelled a mess. Its funny how directors like tarantino or scorsese get special treatment. Scorsese is ready to kick the bucket so one less head to worry about.
I don’t need you to tell me what I am accustomed to, thank you very much. Some of my favourite films divided or flat out turned off critics and yet I embraced them nonetheless. If I say I didn’t like VICE it isn’t because I can’t possibly fathom something so damn “original”, it’s because I didn’t like key aspects of it. Period.
Waves is going to be a divisive film for sure. I’m not even entirely sure what to think myself. It is full of very bold choices, which, to me, rarely worked. It’s essentially two films: first one about the brother, then one about the sister. As the nature of the two stories are different, basically the entire style of the film changes midway. The first one I found unnecessarily dizzying. After watching the second one, I understood why Schults chose to make the first one the way he did it, as the second “film” is made very calmly and peacefully, contrasting it to the first. In the end though, I’m not sure the two fit together as a single piece of cinema. There’s a lot to like here, the story is compelling throughout, the characters feel real, the acting is great across the board. But ultimately in my judgement, the flaws outweighed the good things. Others might feel different. But I don’t think it’s going to be a universally loved film.
This wraps up my wonderful 11 days at the London Film Festival. Finally, I’ll rank all the films I saw at the festival with scores and the categories that I will likely consider them in for my end-of-the-year picks. I’m not sure if anyone would be interested in such a thing, but this is the main place where I discuss film, so I feel this is the most appropriate place to post it:
1. Marriage Story (9.5/10, d: Noah Baumbach): Writing, Directing, Acting (Johansson, Driver, Dern, Alda, Ensemble), Score
2. Matthias & Maxime (9/10, d: Xavier Dolan): Directing, Writing, Acting (Dolan, Freitas, Bernard, Ensemble)
3. A Hidden Life (9/10, d: Terrence Malick): Directing, Cinematography, Score, Writing, Acting (Ensemble)
4. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (8.5/10, d: Céline Sciamma): Directing, Writing, Cinematography, Acting (Merlant, Haenel)
5. The King (8/10, d: David Michôd): Directing, Writing, Acting (Chalamet, Edgerton, Pattinson), Score
6. Arab Blues (8/10, d: Manele Labidi Labbé): Writing, Acting (Ensemble)
7. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (8/10, d: Marielle Heller): Directing, Writing, Acting (Hanks)
8. Atlantics (8/10, d: Mati Diop): Directing, Score
9. The Lighthouse (7.5/10, d: Robert Eggers): Directing, Cinematography, Acting (Dafoe, Pattinson)
10. And Then We Danced (7/10, d: Levan Akin): Acting (Gelbakhiani, Valishvili, Ensemble)
11. The Two Popes (7/10, d: Fernando Meirelles): Acting (Hopkins, Pryce), Cinematography
12. Knives Out (7/10, d: Rian Johnson): Directing, Score, Cinematography
13. Heart (7/10, d: Ga-young Jeong): Writing
14. Lucky Grandma (6.5/10, d: Sasie Sealy)
15. Seberg (6/10, d: Benedict Andrews): Acting (Stewart), Cinematography
16. The Personal History of David Copperfield (6/10, d: Armando Iannucci): Acting (Ensemble)
17. Waves (6/10, d: Trey Edward Schults): Acting (Ensemble)
18. Jojo Rabbit (6/10, d: Taika Waititi)
19. Ema (5.5/10, d: Pablo Larraín): Score
20. Ford v Ferrari (5.5/10, d: James Mangold)
Thank you! Really great to hear opinions from people who saw more movies.
Could Nicole Kidman sneak into the Best Supporting Actress race?
Can Charlize actually win this if Johansson and Zellweger fail to do so? She’s totally worthy of a 2nd Oscar.
Definitely she can so worthy and deserving. Her performance of Kelly is impressive.
Oh, you were at the screening last night ? How was the Q&A ?
Seriously I’m still awestruck like wow, she totally disappears remarkably into Kelly really incredible, the movie is powerful it will get to your core I was not expecting it before seeing it. Reaction after Q&A was strong for a movie that is funny, fierce, furious, powerful, timely and moving . Theron mentioned the 2005 film, North Country that she made about the 1984 landmark sexual harassment case by female miners in Minnesota, as an early example of how the once-unspoken subject is now becoming a rallying cry for women whose voices are finally being heard. Bombshell demonstrates one more big step in bringing it all fully in the open, a long way from those miners in North Country.
Thanks on your input. She does look phenomenal.
You’re welcome!
Hell man, so jealous of you, I honestly can’t wait to see the film. In Charlize we trust!
What are the chances knives out gets a SAG nom? I mean it has great reviews and the ensemble acting seems to be getting recognition. But for some reason it’s name doesn’t seem to come up as much.
The more the merrier. SAG loves to throw a curveball. That could be it, especially if it does good business.
I’d so love to see Ana de Armas shock everyone and score a nomination – love her, she should have done it for Blade Runner 2049, but then again everything in that masterpiece of a film was Oscar worthy.
I’m hoping for it, film unseen by me.
Strangely enough, despite a stellar festival run and rave reviews, Lionsgate continues to treat it like a commercial play and nothing else. Maybe they are waiting for Box Office OR they could have just made the decision internally to put all their eggs in one basket (Bombshell) when it comes to the awards season, who knows. But yeah, if it will show up anywhere, it will be probably in the SAG Ensemble category. Though WGA, PGA, Golden Globe comedy categories wouldn’t surprise me, either.
WGA and Original Script could happen for script is very praised.
Your description is spot on. It’s box office will certainly be a factor, and a script nom is probably it’s likely accolade, alongside a few more from Golden globe categories.
Kidman is on a roll since 2016. Every year she delivers at least one knock-out performance (Lion/The Killing Of A Sacred Deer/The Beguiled/Destroyer/Boy Erased/Bombshell). She’s building enough goodwill to claim a second Oscar in the next decade I think
For sure, she’s been killing it for decades obviously but her work both on film and TV over the last three years is simply awe-inspiring. She’s proven again and again she’s one of the greats.
She was also the best thing about The Goldfinch. Big flop of a film that one but Kidman shone. She always does.
Can we please get rid of the gatekeepers. It’s really annoying when some people keep insisting only a few films can win or be nominated. The season is only just beginning and it’s still up in the air.
Charlize has given one great performance after another for yearrrrrs now, yet hasn’t been nommed since 2005’s North Country. It’s time now. So happy for the positive ink on her. I’m ecstatic that Robbie is having such a great year. And I wonder if Kidman can ride coattails as a 2nd Supporting nominee; that category still has fluidity. Can’t wait to see it.
I agree with you do you remember guys when we were all crushed for Tully, she was robbed for Tully, Mad Max , Young Adult it was really unfair, her performance of Kelly is truly one of the most impressive in all honesty, she truly deserves the recognition.
Lead Actress is weak so there was always room. I think Theron will be vying for the win against Zellweger. I think Robbie will most likely be nominated because she has two top performances and at least one film that is a big player. I think her best chance is Bombshell, not Hollywood.
What if she’s a victim of vote splitting? She’s supporting in both OUATIHOLLYWOOD and BOMBSHELL…..
Robbie is a real deal. Actress, producer, awards, boxoffice. Whole package.
I still think both The Farewell and Hustlers may get in (or at least one) for SAG ensemble.
Is Parasite eligible? I assume so, but just checking. If so, it’d be AWESOME if it got SAG Ensemble. It’s totally deserving.
Hustlers is totally getting in for SAG is no more just actors but actors and other entertainment industry types. So music business folk will vote for Hustlers. This is unfortunate (not voting for Hustlers but adding AFTRA to SAG) because overlap with AMPAS is no more as good as it used to be so this Guild is losing its prediction accuracy.
I hope this isn’t true. I saw Hustlers yesterday and thought it was a literal snoozefest. Fell asleep three times.
I really didn’t like it as well. It was less than two hours long and I felt like I was there for four hours.
SAME! I walked out and said to my boyfriend ‘WHAT? That wasn’t even two hours long? Felt like at least three…’
LOL!
I liked it. Didn’t love it.
yeah it’s not bad it just wasn’t that good
yeah it’s not bad it just wasn’t that good
Can’t wait for Bombshell.
If Zellweger ends up cruising, Scar Jo may increase her chances in Supporting. I think McKenzie still has a good chance of a nomination IF the film is popular with the Academy, as she arguably has the stronger of the two roles (and larger one) in the film. But ScarJo’s scenes are more “scene stealing,” and if she doesn’t win Actress, she may get some mojo for Supporting as a way to recognize her great year.
But Dern, Lopez and Robbie seem like they could also take that race. Why I still think it’s very fluid.
After finally seeing the trailer for Queen & Slim I think that is one we are going to need to take note of and I agree that she is probably going to get a best actress nom. Looks fantastic.