The Oscar story for 2019 isn’t yet told. The big stories from last year would probably be what happens when you wish upon A Star is Born early on, the stealthy rise of Green Book, and Roma behind it. The blogger story, the internet story, the pundit/hype story was A Star is Born. I myself was always skeptical, not because of the movie itself. No matter how good it was it could never overcome, didn’t think, being a 4th remake of a tired Hollywood trope. The film was good — it was just never going to be good enough for Oscar voters to go down a road they’d gone down before.
The other big stories from last year were the specter of Best Popular Film story, and the Oscar host story, and the Twitter shitstorm story. Not our finest hour. Our frustration with Trump has driven us nearly insane so that we have no other choice but to chew off our own leg to survive and begin to attack our own just to prove we have some sort of control over things. But no one knew how any of it would go down. The Academy has a continual gun to its head. They need people to watch, not boycott, their show, so they have no choice but to capitulate to the masses who complain about EVERYTHING. That has not gone away. They are still going to be a target for people who feel helpless about how The Trump Show keeps going. And going, and going.
What will be the story this year? Or the two or three big stories? Well, we know Netflix is still a story, as are all streaming vs. theatrical debates. Popular film is probably still a thing; will the Academy take another swing at that to bring people in who are interested because they like the movies that they like? And shitstorms will no doubt once again erupt. The Academy will still be scrutinized for every decision it makes, all of the speeches will be parsed, all of the nominees and all of the winners will be dissected.
We are still waiting for a couple of big movies to drop. It’s almost impossible to get a read on the race until we see them. Namely, Sam Mendes’ World War I epic 1917. It’s a HOLY FUCK of a movie — according to early word — and thus, the race isn’t complete without it. Another big one will be Greta Gerwig’s Little Women. It’s going to be a wee bit annoying to have it be the Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach show without it feeling a little too high school but hey, they are creative people who each made movies so this is the way of the thing.
Just for fun, I went back to last year’s Predictions Friday around October 19, 2018. The two films I had out front that didn’t make it were First Man (overestimated) and If Beale Street Could Talk. Underestimated was Bohemian Rhapsody. I also will own my own shit and say I underestimated Black Panther. But I felt peer pressure re: A Star is Born. I had my doubts about its chances but so many were so confident that I went along with it. All the same, for my Best Picture predictions, I had 7 out of the eventual 8 on my list, missing only Bohemian Rhapsody, though I did include 12 contenders for Best Picture, so that’s cheating — a little.
Either which way, here’s a rundown that will go down in history as a hit or miss. Worth mentioning, last year the only film I hadn’t yet seen when I laid down my cards was Vice, but it ended up getting in. Late breakers are never a sure thing.
So here we go.
Oscarwatching rules:
Main rule to live by:
Actors rule the Academy. In last year’s BP lineup, all but Black Panther had acting nominations. The year before, all but Dunkirk did. And the year before that, all but Arrival did (Amy Adams wuz robbed). ACTORS RULE THE ACADEMY. Make sure you have an acting nominee in your BP predictions. I will use that guideline again.
Best Picture is: that movie you can sit anyone down in front of and they will like it if not love it. They’ll at least get it.
Other rule for 2019: some buzz by the kool kids on Film Twitter can help (as it did with Black Panther last year), but sometimes the buzz and anti-buzz can have unexpected consequences (as it did with Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody). So get out of that bubble and think for yourself, whenever possible. Routinely those Oscar-watchers who do well in our contests are almost always people who are outside the bubble.
Best Picture – Frontrunners
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – potentially two acting nominations, arguably Tarantino’s best film, a nostalgic look back at the pop-culture world that shaped Tarantino as an artist and a man. In telling this story, many who lived through it also have a chance to recall those days of… pain and glory. With bravura performances by Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt, it is by far and quite easily one of the best films of the year. Tarantino also carries the warrior sheath of “defender of cinema,” both in his devotion to “real film” and in his commitment to keeping the New Beverly Cinema alive and thriving. At a time when so much is changing, that will be a story. And it’s not nothing.
Jojo Rabbit – has its place reserved because it won the Audience Award at Toronto, beating all the other heavy hitters that played there. It is a film that packs a powerful message of love — and a desire for freedom, freedom to dance, freedom to love, freedom from oppression, racism, homophobia, fascism. With its rule-breaking humor that dares to make fun of Nazis, Jojo Rabbit shows how sticks and stones may break our bones but words will never really hurt us. It is a joy to watch, a celebration of life and love, and I have never felt so proud of seeing an American flag as I did at the end of that movie.
The Irishman – An entire cast full of respected actors delivering top-shelf performances makes it a strong contender across the board. One of Scorsese’s very best, with low-key editing by Thelma Schoonmaker and a strong desire to deglamorize mob movies, The Irishman is as good as it gets. It will be released November 1 and then begin streaming on Netflix on November 27. That gives it, along with the other Netflix movies, a much better option of being seen by as many people as possible before the Oscar voting starts.
Parasite – surely to top dozens of critics lists, the film most are calling the best film of the year, that could benefit from well-deserved acting nominations. It’s a foreign language film that will have no problem earning enough number one votes to secure a spot, and likely its director, Bong Joon-Ho is also a strong contender.
Marriage Story – Noah Baumbach’s personal film about the breakdown of a marriage and the making of a new kind of family. It is also actor driven, featuring two bravura lead performances plus many supporting performances. Potential nominations in all four acting categories. It is a SAG juggernaut and thus, a strong contender for BP.
Bombshell – although it didn’t run the festival gauntlet, Bombshell is an ensemble to die for, and is the only one of these that is wholly female driven. It is also a strong condemnation of sexual harassment that tells the story of the fall of Roger Ailes. At least two acting noms here.
Dolemite Is My Name – if you invite Dolemite to the Oscars you will instantly have a better show. It is full of life, humor and is a feel good story of an African-American hero. It doesn’t appear to be among Netflix’s primary “prestige” picks — but it is and should be a strong contender for nominations across the board. Eddie Murphy, Wesley Snipes and Da’Vine Randolph Joy could see nominations and it might be a favorite for SAG.
Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood – based on the potential for Tom Hanks’ Oscar nominations, this film by Marielle Heller is another of the feel-good movies heading for the race, along with Jojo Rabbit and Dolemite Is My Name. The message of patience and calm endurance taught to generations of kids by Fred Rogers could not be more needed right now and that sentiment could drive it to the top of lists.
Joker – Driven by Joaquin Phoenix’s lead performance, can it overcome both the stigma of dwelling in the “comic book wheelhouse yet not being Black Panther,” and the stigma of the whole “sympathy for the Incel thing.” It’s making money but that doesn’t usually matter with superhero movies. That it’s a superhero movie that’s not a superhero movie might matter, might not. A lot of people love it. But it’s hard to know how it will land.
Not yet seen but holding a place for:
1917 – this movie could be the whole thing – with its own slight drawback being that it will come late in the year and the way things go now it’s hard to gain ground later in the season. Sam Mendes has taken on the extraordinary task of splicing the film together seamlessly as one long take. Although films don’t really sweep the Oscars nowadays, this is the kind of film that could still do something like that.
Little Women – Greta Gerwig did not win an Oscar the year Lady Bird got her a Best Director nomination. Adapted Screenplay is weak this year and that gives her a shot to win that writing Oscar, especially considering how close to her heart the novel Little Women appears to be. We haven’t seen it so we don’t yet know but once again, follow the actors. Looks good for at least two, maybe three acting noms.
Richard Jewell – could be driven by the lead actor performance — YET ANOTHER — and by Eastwood’s directing, depending on how it goes. We must keep a place at the table for it, in case it breaks big, as American Sniper did.
Dark Waters – yet another male actor showcase with Mark Ruffalo, and potentially supporting actors as well. A hard-hitting politically strong film about poisoned water. And greedy corporations that did nothing about it. The pic is starting to screen at the end of this month.
My on the fence picks. Please note: if any of these performances are beloved to the point where they will win, then that movie is getting in for Best Picture, I figure:
The Two Popes – fourth Netflix movie, driven by Jonathan Pryce’s brilliant performance as Pope Francis.
Rocketman – yet another powerhouse performance by Taron Egerton, along with beloved Elton John songs.
Queen & Slim – potentially driven by the lead actress performance of Jodie Turner-Smith but also it being a 100% WoC production, written, directed by and starring.
Ford v Ferrari – a solid film with two very good male performances in the lead, Christian Bale and Matt Damon.
Waves – a feel good ensemble piece that really needs to a boost in the coming months.
The Farewell – driven by Awkwafina’s performance, being helmed by a female director, with an all-Asian cast.
Uncut Gems – driven by Adam Sandler’s performance, and the Safdie brothers’ insane but admired style.
Motherless Brooklyn – an all star cast, led by Edward Norton who gives quite a good performance in the lead and actors might reward the film, even if it’s being somewhat disregarded by the kool kids on Film Twitter.
Best Actor – Frontrunners
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Contenders
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory
Roman Griffin Davis, Jojo Rabbit
Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems
Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy
Daniel Kaluuya, Queen & Slim
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
Edward Norton, Motherless Brooklyn
Robert Pattinson, The Lighthouse
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Adam Driver, The Report
Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters
Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell
Best Actress – Frontrunners
Renee Zellweger, Judy
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Contenders
Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen & Slim
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Alfre Woodard, Clemency
Thomasin McKenzie, JoJo Rabbit
Elizabeth Moss, Her Smell
Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Julianne Moore, Gloria Bell
Mary Kay Place, Diane
Best Supporting Actor – Frontrunners
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Timothee Chalamet, Little Women
Wesley Snipes, Dolemite Is My Name
Contenders
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Alan Alda, Marriage Story
John Lithgow, Bombshell
Zack Gottsagen, The Peanut Butter Falcon
Sam Rockwell, Jojo Rabbit
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Matt Damon, Ford v Ferrari
Sterling K. Brown, Waves
Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
Kelvin Harrison, Jr. Waves
Ray Liotta, Marriage Story
Best Supporting Actress – Frontrunners
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Dolemite Is My Name
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Contenders
Shuzhen Zhao, The Farewell
Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit
Taylor Russell, Waves
Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Motherless Brooklyn
Elisabeth Moss, Us
Annette Bening, The Report
Best Director – frontrunners
Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Sam Mendes, 1917
Contenders
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Craig Brewer, Dolemite Is My Name
Jay Roach, Bombshell
Melina Matsoukas, Queen & Slim
Todd Phillips, Joker
Trey Edward Shults, Waves
Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes
Marielle Heller, Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari
Edward Norton, Motherless Brooklyn
Jordan Peele, Us
Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Scott Z Burns, The Report
Clint Eastwood, Richard Jewell
Todd Haynes, Dark Waters
Original Screenplay – frontrunners
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Quentin Tarantino
Marriage Story, Noah Baumbach
Dolemite Is My Name, Scott Alexander, Larry Karaszewski
Parasite, Bong Joon-Ho, Jin Won Han
Charles Randolph, Bombshell
Contenders
Queen & Slim, Queen & Slim
Waves. Trey Edward Shultz
Ford v Ferrari , Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth
Us, Jordan Peele
The Farewell, Lulu Wang
Booksmart , Emily Halpern, Sarah Haskins, Susanna Fogel, Katie Silberman
The Report , Scott Z Burns,
Adapted Screenplay – frontrunners
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Jojo Rabbit, Taika Waititi
The Irishman, Steve Zaillian
The Two Popes, Anthony McCarten
Hustlers, Lorene Scafaria
Contenders
Richard Jewell, Billy Ray
Dark Waters, Mario Correa
Motherless Brooklyn, Edward Norton
Just Mercy, Daniel Destin Cretton, Andrew Lanham
Joker, Todd Phillips, Scott Silver
Cinematography
1917
Ad Astra
The Irishman
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Ford v Ferrari
Editing
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Parasite
Ford v Ferrari
Production Design
1917
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Aeronauts
Sound Mixing
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Ford v Ferrari
Captain Marvel
Avengers Endgame
Sound Editing
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Ford v Ferrari
Captain Marvel
Avengers Endgame
Costume Design
Dolemite Is My Name
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Irishman
The Aeronauts
Visual Effects
1917
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Aeronauts
Captain Marvel
Original Score
1917
Marriage Story
Jojo Rabbit
Waves
Ad Astra
I think it’s OUATIH or The Irishman, nothing else (I don’t know, maybe 1917 is a threat, but I sort of doubt it), and it’s very hard for me to pick between the two with the limited information I have at the moment. (Having just gotten back from my break.) The late October stat also indicates Marriage Story could win, but there are various reasons (in my opinion) why this seems too optimistic. Of course, these being way early predictions, there’s zero certainty.
I enjoyed “Dolemite…” tremendously and would love for it to be a major player but the bare-minimum theatrical release it’s gotten has to hurt its chances. In SF proper it played for ONE WEEK in an out-of-the-way theater. SF Chronicle didn’t even review it. There were, like, 5 people at the showing I saw. Nobody knew it had opened.
For Visual Effects, I don’t see Captain Marvel being much of a factor. Effects were pretty standard and the branch has only put in more than one marvel film once (and Endgame is absolutely the better and bigger effects showcase). If another superhero film comes to play it will be Spider-Man thanks to the inventive Mysterio sequences.
Haven’t seen The Aeronauts yet, but based on early looks I don’t think it will stand much of a chance. Instead we have films like Gemini Man (new technology), Detective Pikachu (level of difficulty animating fur a la Christopher Robin), Star Wars: Rose of Skywalker (it’s Star Wars), or Lion King (life like animals a la Jungle Book).
This will probably go to The Lion King ala The Jungle Book but for me the VFX rendering of Dumbo himself is better than that of all the characters in The Lion King.
This is a weak year for Visual Effects to be honest. I really hope Laika’s Missing Link stands a chance like Kubo and the Two Strings and takes it.
I definitely think Missing Link will be a bakeoff finalist, but it faces a bit of a battle to get in for nomination I think. I dont think that film caught on the way Kubo did (and how I WISH it had been nominated in and won Production Design!). It would be a worthy nominee though.
Im not so sure Lion King wins though. We’ve yet to see what Star wars will deliver. And The Lion King doesnt quite feel like a revelation the way that The Jungle Book did. Plus, many viewers felt that the way the animals were animated to speak was jarring in TLK. And I think the problem with Dumbo is its a divisive character design in a beautiful but very flawed film. So I don’t expect that one to make the cut.
I also forgot to mention Ad Astra. If that gets in, it may be the nominee with the largest campaign of the category. So it could pull off a First Man and win.
Early Predictions:
*I can’t bring myself to pick the split from heaven (Scorsese in director and Tarantino in director or the reverse)
Picture: Jojo Rabbit
Director: Waititi (sp.?)
Actress: Zellweger
Actor: Phoenix
Supporting Actress: Dern
Supporting Actor: Pitt
Screenplays: Jojo Rabbit, Irishman
I really want Tarantino to get screenplay, though.
Jojo Rabbit and The Irishman are actually both in adapted screenplay
Thanks! I even read the book on which Irishman is based. You’d think I’d remember that.
The Laundromat (Soderbergh ’19): Another entry into the Wikipedia Picture. Except this one was elegantly staged and acted so, fuck it, I dug it. Best Meryl since Ricki and the Flash. (C+/B-)
I had such high expectations for The laundromat but watched it last night. Very disappointing. Tonally all over the shop. Acting just as mixed. Meryl the only saving grace for me. She makes few bad choices but this feels like one. Gary Oldman ugh! I enjoyed the first 15 minutes and the last 5. The stuff in the middle, repetitive and clumsy.
Logging in a few recent watches and Oscar observations.
The Lighthouse (Eggers ’19): Dafoe will have to go for the kill if he wants that nom. This will not attract much attention. He will have to bank on his charm, universal career acclaim, a healthy dose of critics citations and even then it seems unlikely at the moment. (C+)
Hustlers (Scafaria ’19): Fun, fun, fun. J.Lo go for it. Shoot your best shot (C+/B-)
Waves (Shults ’19): In contention for anything? (C)
Last Black Man in San Francisco (Talbot ’19): Should have been huge. (B+/A-)
Ready or Not (Bettinelli-Olpin, Gillet ’19): Can we switch Jo Jo out of the race for this? (B)
Still trying to secure viewings of new pictures by Woody Allen and Roman Polanski before the year ends, but they’re making it nearly impossible, keep you posted gang.
The Last Black Man in San Francisco is so god damn beautiful. Cinematography and score are right up there with the best of the year, and Jonathan Majors is astounding.
I have a serious question. A contender for the win has a franchise movie coming up and leaks suggest it’s a dumpster fire. It isn’t actor’s fault, of course, but is awful blockbuster going to ruin his chances or not? I know that some think Norbit is a myth and some that it’s real thought this isn’t the actor’s vehicle but just a big brand that produced a turd (I’m sure geek critics will praise the movie anyway).
It will not hurt his chances
thanks, asking for my friend Joaquin. 😉
Which movie is it?
The Rise of Skywalker
Lol you want the movie to hurt Driver’s chances?
I didn’t say that, I only asked if it could.
About the Norbit claim: you could point at Eddie Redmayne and Jupiter Ascending as a Norbit-like situation and that didn’t change much so if a Norbit-like situation does exist, it doesn’t always destroy a contender.
And since I have no idea what particular actor you’re talking about, if it’s Driver (the new Star Wars) or Johansson (Black Widow), both have reasons why people would spread rumors that those movies suck even if they were actually good
No, TROS legit sucks. The movie leaked for real and it’s a mess though Jupiter and Norbit also had panned performances which is different from being good in dumpster fire movie.
There is no way in hell a film of Star Wars calibre could leak in this day and age. Regardless, even if it is a mess, that shouldn’t have an impact on Driver’s Oscar campaign since he isn’t the lead there, only one member of a large ensemble. Also if a franchise film sucks / flops, it will be blamed on the studio, the director and the screenwriter, not a random cast member who isn’t even the headliner.
Agreed. BTW, TFA leaked in full 7 months before the movie came out. It was based on somewhat outdated call sheets but the essence and big scenes were the same.
Ahh you meant spoilers were leaked, I thought you meant a pirated version of the actual film.
No, no, ha ha, that will leak on the premiere.
You wrote “the movie leaked for real”.
it did as in synopsis leaked so my bad.
Then again that synopsis could be 1. a fake (fan fiction) 2. a deliberate fake (an alternate script, not used) 3. an early version that could have been significantly altered til the final cut of the film was delivered.
it’s the latest version and it definitely isn’t fake.
How exactly can you assess whether a movie “sucks” or not based on plot points that happen within the movie?
Hard to explain without addressing the spoilers but lets just say bad parts jump at you immediately. Some ideas are just plain bad.
I think the Norbit curse may be legit BUT only if a proper star vehicle at the worst possible time arrives for an Oscar contender. Redmayne didn’t have backlash over Jupiter Ascending because he wasn’t the star of it, you had to look very closely at the marketing to even realise he was in it. With Norbit on the other hand Murphy was front and centre just when the voting was underway.
That timing was crucial, as well, because a shit film sure didn’t hurt Oscar contenders in the past, most notable example being Sandra Bullock who may have had a critically trashed September release that earned her a Razzie but since that film was bookended by two massive BO hits (The Proposal in June, The Blind Side in November), nobody really cared about that misfire in the middle even though none of the three films were even remotely critically acclaimed.
If the one in question is Driver, he won’t be hurt even if the new Star Wars film disappoints, simply because he isn’t the lead and if it is Johansson, well, Black Widow has a May release date so even if it is a bad film (I doubt it will be, Marvel always delivers at least good even if basic), the Oscar season will be long over by the time we find out.
Even if it wasn’t a blockbuster, I’d like to add that All about Steve vs. The blind side situation. Razzie and Oscar for Sandra Bullock the same weekend.
I’m not sure merely a bad franchise movie is enough to sink this person. The thing about Norbit is that it was not just bad but it was also utterly stupid and embarrassing and seriously undermined Eddie Murphy’s bid at being taken seriously as an actor in Dreamgirls. If we’re talking about Adam Driver in Star Wars (maybe we’re not) I don’t see that film, even if it’s terrible, casting Driver in that same light.
We are talking about Driver in Dross, I mean TROS. Thanks for explaining the difference between Norbit and that movie.
Eddie Murphy didn’t lose the Oscar because of Norbit. He had a bad reputation in Hollywood for being a jerk. He came off as a sore loser by leaving the Oscars right he lost. Alan Arkin was a beloved veteran in a Best Picture nominee.
and Jojo Rabbit is a big NO for me. I find it an excruciating mess and I am really perplexed… I don’t get how nonsensical + gimmicky register to many as brilliant filmmaking. Probably the worst movie I have seen this year.
i think jojo rabbit is exactly the kind of movie that will win picture. It is telling the same anti-hate message of greenbook through a different story. This feels like the movie with no star-power and good message than could go all the way.
I think you’re right.
It looks decidedly not my cup of tea, but really well made. It couldn’t be worse than a certain BP nominee from last year lol
Well made is probably the last thing I would say about it.
This is exactly what I expect from Jojo based on the trailer. Phoney, cheap sentimentality, decorated by a serious historical subject matter in order to make it look meaningful.
Deserving of note: Distributed by Neon on a very modest way (33 cinemas right now), Parasite has reached the 1M box office in America Cinema. I think we are being testimonials of a true phenomenon and in the end, the film will break into the Best Picture list. 1 Million, for an asian film, distributed in only 33 cinemas, IS Something IMPRESSIVE!
What’s the release date on Netflix?
if it expands its gonna flop.
It won’t flop. It can’t, it has been earning profit for quite a while already.
It cost 11M to produce and its worldwide gross is at 88M worldwide while it is also expected to deliver a 40K PTA and 1,3M in the US from only 33 cinemas this weekend alone. It will end its run well over 100M worldwide.
Yeah, it has made profit already in June. It opened in Germany and Mexico now, and Spain and Italy soon. 100 million mark is almost here.
worldwide doesn’t count….Domestic box office counts for oscars.
And it will make good business in America.
And yet in the 10 years since they expanded BP, the highest grossing BP nominee didn’t win once. More often than not it is the third or fourth highest-grossing film in the category that takes it and that the very least suggests that Box Office prowess, domestic or international, isn’t as crucial of a factor anymore as it once was.
Of course in order to get the nomination, it is important not to be seen as a financial disappointment (First Man) but after that stage, as long as the film broke even and made it into BP, it will have a fair shot. And Parasite is looking at 20M+ in the US so even if you refuse to factor in the 90M it made overseas, it is a hit either way thanks to its 11M price tag.
For the record, in the 10 years before the BP expansion, 8 winners had passed the 100M milestone. In the 10 years since the BP expansion, only 2 did. Times are changing.
You are incorrect.
if it expands its gonna flop.
It’s not gonna be in thousands of screens. Just a few hundred… or whatever the demand is.
Worldwide gross has surpassed 100m, in fact. For example Taiwan alone has grossed more than 3m but it is still not counted.
Impressive to say the least and most importantly deserving as fuck. Easily among the best films I’ve seen in the last decade, not year, fucking decade. I think it’s THAT phenomenal.
And that is counting only ONE day in 33 cinemas. Gonna double that box office on Monday. Next weekend adds another 50 screens and a week after that another 50 more (if they do as planned). Parasite will make a lot of money.
I believe it opens here in Atlanta next weekend and I can’t wait. It’s opening at the art house and an AMC at the mall. It’ll be interesting to see those audiences.
Yes, I see it’s only two venues in Atlanta next weekend. Book early. Twitter is full of SOLD OUT -tweets by cinemas. They keep adding after midnight shows and 9am shows, due to demand.
I’m going to be keeping a lookout all week! Still waiting for Pain and Glory to get here!
Parasite is dynamite!
I’m really surprised there’s not more talk about Shia LaBeouf in Peanut Butter Falcon. He’s really fantastic in it.
Quite the creative comeback (= arrival ?) he is having this year between that indie hit (20M in the US, solid reviews) and Honey Boy (festival hit, rave reviews). I can’t help but think that he may just crash the atm “legends only” supporting actor category in the end or he may even get a nod in script just as well.
OT: Seeing Monos tomorrow, which I’m very excited about. Today, I only have time to see one of these three films: Judy, Hustlers, The Peanut Butter Falcon. Anyone want to make a recommendation?
Monos is excellent. As for the others, i didn’t see Falcon. Hustlers is fine, but nothing special — JLo does a good job, though i would not say Oscar material. But she’s a star, and has star quality. I thought the movie Judy was a total dud, and that Renee was “fine” but nothing more. I always want to see the Oscar nominees even if i think i will hate the movie or performance, so in your position i would go to Judy, just to check it out. Most people like her performance more than i did.
I really hope Zellweger does not win for Judy. A nomination I can see, but it doesn’t compare to not only other biopics but better portrayals of Garland that I’ve seen. She gave it everything but the speaking voice and all the blinking and twitching kept removing the moments for me.
I haven’t seen The Peanut Butter Falcon. Hustlers was a ton of fun! JLo is fantastic in a movie star turn. Judy is not as fun, but that performance is undeniable. But it’s pretty standard and I wish they’d lost most of the flashbacks.
Peanut Butter Falcon was certainly worth the watch with two special performances by Labeouf and Gottsagen who could be in the conversation, helps that it was a hit. Dont know if its gonna be remembered, critics can get the film in a couple of races/conversations i guess…
Finally saw Parasite. Very good film, for sure, even though I might not be as enthusiastic about it as many of you. Reminded me a lot of the dutch film “Borgman” that I saw a couple of years ago. The invasion of disorder and menace into a dysfunctional privileged (and bourgeoise) household. I already saw what´s coming and was more amused than actually shocked. The capitalism critic felt a bit shallow and the characters stereotyped, but all in all this was truly a well crafted and very entertaining film. Top 10 calibre, but probably not Top 5 – at least not for me.
It’s gonna be the laaamest Halloween just literally waiting day for the The King to drop.
Sadly I found The King a bore fest and couldn’t get through it. Tried twice! Handsomely staged but the dialogue and gloomy performances were under par.
Initial thoughts about this year:
1. Where is Cats? You never know.
2. Love Laura Dern but don’t see her winning for that Renata Klein-lite role. It’s wishful thinking and would not really be a win in the vein of Regina King. She’s not sweet enough, not bitchy enough, and not doing something out of the ordinary. What’s the deal with Bening?
3. JLo – Hustlers – aka Magic Mike. I highly, highly doubt it with the Academy.
4. Lupita could go either way given how liked she and Jordan Peele are.
5. Shocked a Tubman biopic is falling by the wayside.
6. If Bombshell is good enough, they will look for a way to award Charlize over Renee, who took off too many years, had bad face work, and is imitating an inimitable legend.
7. Won’t hold my breath for anything for Joker either, but not sure who will win Best Actor. Adam Driver ends his movie on a high, but Marriage Story still feels pretty routine like A Star Is Born. Irishman could steamroll.
8. Tarantino is not winning, and who is arguing this is his best movie? Parasite will probably become the Director frontrunner if Scorsese doesn’t take it. In fact, look for Parasite to fill the open slots for the weak acting categories a la Roma.
9. Not sure what to make of Eddie Murphy and Dolemite, though the supporting actress would be a good call on paper.
10. It’s so late in the year not to have a strong Best Song frontrunner. Toy Story 4 had something by Randy Newman, but it was forgettable. Elton’s contributions to Rocketman and Lion King, same. Even if Cats has something new, I doubt they’ll go that route. So what’s left?
11. The Farewell was really well liked by critics and offers a fresh perspective. I haven’t seen it but can envision it having the support and goodwill to get in for Picture, Actress, and Supporting Actress.
12. Won’t The Lion King at least be nominated for VFX? Question is what they will award in its place, since they won’t want to reward this film a la Jungle Book if the characters’ inexpressive faces were so unconvincing. Also, never count out Star Wars for tech noms.
13. Little Women is another one that could go either way. It’s been done to death. And Saoirse is starting to play the same upstart character in every movie. 4 blondes in Best Actress (and 3 in supporting), really?
14. Tom Hanks being supporting in a Mr. Rogers biopic is ridiculous, but he’s overdue.
Early acting predictions:
Charlize
Renee
Scarlett
2 of Awkwafina/Erivo/Ronan/Jodi/Parasite
De Niro
Driver
Phoenix
2 of Pryce/Murphy/Banderas/DiCaprio/Parasite. Sounds like everyone is sleeping on the popes.
Bening
Dern
Robbie (Bombshell)
Dolemite
Farewell
alt. Scarlett or the Jojo child, or JHud singing “Memory,” you never know
Pesci
Pacino
Hanks
2 of Pitt/Hopkins/Snipes/Dafoe/Rockwell
Director:
Parasite
Scorsese
Baumbach if it takes off
Tarantino, I guess
Jojo Rabbit
alt. 1917, or Bombshell for the Vice slot
2. Laura Dern has a searing scene in Marriage Story – her speech about the different expectations between mothers and fathers – that critics are applauding as her Oscar moment.
She’s good, but that scene is more so a highlight of the writing.
Noah Baumbach said Dern collaborated on the scene. She is also a respected veteran actress like Regina King, Allison Janney, Viola Davis, Patricia Arquette, Melissa Leo.
Fair enough. I just worry she isn’t stretching or emoting much.
During the projection of “Marriage Story” in Toronto, audience erupted into applause for Laura Dern’s monologue in the film. Also, she is having a killing year with both MS and Big Little Lies. She is an Academy Board of Governor’s, was even considered to lead the Academy 2 years ago. Beloved by her peers, will receive the greatest honor at this year Gotham Awards. You can measure how Dern is well liked by her peers when in 2014, she came of nowhere and was nominated for “Wild” for a very, very small role. Also, it would be the first Oscar for the Dern-Ladd family. Her parents never won before.
Wild was a really good role though if small and driven by her performance. I’d love to see her win (or Bening). Just think it’s not a typical role for an Oscar.
I can’t wait to finally see Marriage Story and Laura’s ridiculously praised monologue. She’s aways been exceptional from unforgettable leading turns in both the big and the small screen to the tiniest parts.
I’d like to think that somewhere in a parallel universe she has won The Oscar for her astonishing lead performance in Inland Empire. Such a gem of an actor, she could easily put several Oscar winners to shame.
I wish she could win everything this year both for this and her phenomenal work in the second season of Big Little Lies.
Me too, Stergios. It is weird to think that, with a long and so rich carreer, she only has 2 Oscar nominations and besides an Emmy and a couple of Golden Globes, she has nothing more. She was never nominated for BAFTA for example. And complementing your comment, it is not difficult to put several Oscar winners to shame. Shame on the Academy that in the last years, so deserveless actresses have won both Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress. At this point, Bening, Pfeiffer, Dern herself, Close, Sigourney, among others, should have won several Oscars.
Unfortunately I can’t upvote that comment more than once haha 🙂 My sister started watching the second season of Big Little Lies last week and the other day I bumped into the scene where Renata has invited Mary Louise and gets completely uncomfortable and tells Meryl Streep’s character “Are you placing judgment on my life choices?” with that steely look… God, she’s soooo good. Adore her and btw her parents as well. I’m so pissed I haven’t seen Marriage Story yet. Truly can’t wait.
The Inland Empire snub was criminal.
She was a damn icon in the second season of BLL, too bad she will probably lose most nominations / wins to co-star Meryl Streep. Not that the great Meryl wasn’t pitch-perfect but she has won so many awards already, so I think they should start giving Dern some now.
I like a lot of your comments. I agree that JLO ain’t winning — maybe a nomination. I don’t see Lupita being nominated. Also shocked how quickly Harriet has plummeted. And I think Phoenix won’t win — the film is too divisive, and too many people absolutely hate it. I also don’t think Tarantino is winning Director this year. And I hope someone beats Renee — I don’t mind the actress, but i think the performance is overrated.
As for Hanks, the film is not a biopic of Mr. Rogers. It’s more a story about a writer who is doing a profile of Mr. Rogers and his life is changed by getting to know the man. But Rogers is not the central character. I assume this is why Hanks is going Supporting.
IKR but if Meryl played Mr Rogers opposite Amy Adams it would be a lead actress comedy Globe win.
Isn’t Al Pacino the bigger Supporting Actor push for The Irishman rather than Joe Pesci? His name came up more in reviews.
Also, I really want Willem Dafoe to win the Oscar he has been robbed of so many times. He is amazing in The Lighthouse in a very difficult dialect and setting.
Cordelia, my heart is also with Dafoe, and I think people are understimating both “The Lighthouse” and him. I am sure if people watch the film, no way they will not vote for him. He gives the best performance of the year in Supporting Actor.
Dafoe is great and i don’t even get the love for the Lighthouse at all but hes great in it.
I’d love it if Dafoe got nominated but especially the end of that movie for his character is pretty rough so I’m not sure whether voters will want to vote for him or that movie
You have to figure both are in. From what I gather, Pacino’s role is “showier” and way more Actors Branch friendly.
If ford v ferrari gets cinematography, editing, sound mixing and sound editing nominations and its a hit( which based on the interest among general public i think it will be) then this movie will get into best picture race easily. Parasite will be relegated to foreign picture(not sure though).
BOMBSHELL
BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
DOLEMITE IS MY NAME and
JOKER are not best picture nominees
logan is a better movie than joker but the only reason that movie was not in is because it has white lead….black panther is not just a superhero movie, its a black superhero movie and disney took a chance casting an all black cast and making it a hit. Until then Hollywood thought black movies can make money if it has will smith or denzel washington as the lead. Joker is not that. So Joker will face the same fate as logan and deadpool.
I somewhat doubt the presumption that you have that Ford v Ferrari will get editing and cinematography nominations. I feel like if one presumes that especially editing nominations rarely happen without best picture buzz, it eventually becomes circular deduction: “Ford v Ferrari is strong in picture because it’s strong in editing and cinematography, and it’s strong in editing and cinematography because it’s showy in those areas and it’s strong enough in best picture to be considered for nominations in that category”
no one implied circular dependency….its editing, sounds and cinematography have been lauded and if it gets nominated in those categories and its a crowd pleasing hit especially considering its an original old school big budget studio movie then it will get in.
The circular deduction would come from the notion that you’re presuming that it will in particular get an editing nomination in your proving of it getting a picture nomination when usually proving that something will get an editing nomination demands best picture buzz. Hence your proving can easily form into “This film is going to get best picture buzz because it will get an editing nomination, which it will recieve because it has best picture buzz”.
If you want to prove that the film will get a best picture nomination because it recieves an editing nomination, you have to prove that it will get an editing nomination no matter what amount of best picture buzz it has. In the preferential era only three films have gotten editing nominations without best picture nominations: I, Tonya, Baby Driver and Star Wars: The Force Awakens. I, Tonya had considerable best picture buzz, so let’s count that out if we’re trying to assess if a film can get an editing nomination without considerable best picture buzz, which would be what you’d have to prove. Both Baby Driver and Star Wars: The Force Awakens were action movies that didn’t have a running time of 2.5 hours and had better reviews than Ford v Ferrari but even if we ignore that, you’re talking about two cases out of 50 in the preferential era, which I don’t think is enough to base your actual predictions on the presumption of a nomination like this happening.
Thus while I completely agree with the phrase you have given “If it gets editing, sound and cinematography nominations, it will get a best picture nomination”, I doubt the idea that the presumption that forms the first half of that phrase is going to happen, and hence I doubt whether the phrase in and of itself will be relevant.
That’s a sound analysis.
critics usually are hesitant about any movie that has middle american bent to it because most of them are from coasts. So any movie with middle american characters being themselves is treated with apprehension. All movies that are exceptions to this rule have been about the very fact that they are middle americans. So it has to be about race/indigenous mistreatment/political. This movie is not that. It is about men in 60s doing manly things and that will raise eyebrows of few critics who are so into supporting minorities/other marginalized communities/independent small insignificant movies /non-epic movies through their reviews. So I can see how this movie is not received in the same way a marriage story is received but that doesn’t matter because they hired mangold and not james grey. They know what they are doing with it. They are making it populist entertainment and if that clicks, reviews don’t matter like green book/bohemian rhapsody. So the bottom line is as long as the reviews are not extremely divisive like vice this movie will get in starting with technicals. The problem with rush is that it is way too safe in its filmmaking. Race sequences were insignificant. The fact that this movie is trying to understand the mechanics and mindset in actual racing sequences is a huge step forward from rush. You don’t need a complicated story on top of that. It’s like asking for LA confidential type layered story in Titanic. The mechanics of the spectacle are complicated enough without a complicated plotline. But rush didn’t have the complicated racing sequences and so a lack of complicated story made it useless altogether.
1) Certain Women, comes to mind as a film that critics adored and is more about “Middle Americans” living their lives without the “politics” you’re talking about.
2) Critics have praised for example Christopher Nolan’s movies thorughout his career and his movies are notably bigger than this, and are about white men doing things.
3) You’re arguing for the movie getting into best picture on your percieved quality of it (since you imply that you haven’t actually seen the movie yet) rather than the actual movie or how the movie is considered by the industry. And considering that when last year had genuinely brilliant works about the act of creation that actually contemplated what performing and expressing something is like, like Madeline’s Madeline, Bohemian Rhapsody, the most bafflingly dull interpretation of those ideas I’ve seen in a while, got in to best picture instead, so it’s hard for me to believe that making a person understand the way racing works is going to help the situation significantly
4) Your main argument seems to be that you think that Ford v Ferrari is bold for appealing to the public. There is nothing bold about appealing to people, doing things with the idea of people liking it is by definition the opposite of being bold
1) The “women” in certain women makes it slightly critics friendly because females are driving the story as opposed to men. The movie deals with sexism and there is a native american actress in the movie. All those are catnips for critics. On the contrary, ford v ferrari will have sleazy executives who oppose certain creative people just because they don’t like them. That is hard for critics to understand but in reality in hollywood certain studio executives hinder the growth of certain actors just because they don’t like them. Additionally, mechanic/pit crew characters in the movie may behave like blue collar construction workers by being a little raunchy and american friendly or slightly misogynistic and that should be okay.
2) Chris nolan movies may be about white men but they are more high concept than this movie. There is a world where ford v ferrari could be like dunkirk with the whole film being just the race. But that would fail because a world war genre movie by a director like Nolan with his bankability is different than a car racing genre movie with mangold. So he needs to find an approach to appeal to indy 500 /daytona crowd as well.
3) When i say “explaining how racing works” I am not talking about boring the audience with physics of racing. I am talking about the execution of action like action sequences in interstellar or dunkirk. More muscular and dritty and on the ground action.
4) Films aren’t made in vacuum. Even directors like Nolan, tarantino and spielberg know what audience like. They are good at taking that into account while making the movie and include it as part of their script. I will take those movies over anything PTA has done any day of the week. I am sure his movies will show up in the best of the decade critics lists but when you have 100 million $ budget, I would rather have a movie like django unchained than ad astra. i am not talking about selling out and making dumb action movies. I am talking about baking commercial elements into subject matters that not commercial or making commercial movies in a unique way.
Gosh I hope it doesn’t get a nom consideration before Hoyte van Hoytema.
why ? because you liked the color palette of a movie ? a lot of people confuse color palette with cinematography. It is much more than that.
Yes, it’s usually the other way around. Best Picture get’s you editing, not the other way around.
not for all nominees…editing is a key component in movies that involves capturing lot of camera footage and cutting it to make cohesive scene. Like mad max , bourne, vice etc. Movies like marriage story or two popes or parasite or a lot of them are not exactly editing contenders. So a movie like ford v ferrari involves capturing cars moving in different locations and cutting to make it look like they are driving in the same track is very much like mad max fury road. Its a method to determining nominees. Its not some blind category.
Two of the three examples you mention got nominations in picture and directing, so most likely those nominations got those movies editing nominations, just like john smith said. And as for The Bourne Ultimatum, note that the movie actually won ACE, as did Baby Driver, and had a shorter running time (editors rarely nominate long films just because they like the way they’re edited, especially if they have no best picture buzz), better reviews and better box office (over $440 million) than what I imagine Ford v Ferrari will recieve, like I mentioned in my longer ramble below. Hence you’re not really necessarily pointing to relevant examples here
the key here is, an original movie that is not based on a popular IP in a genre that is considered a box office poison and a genre where no other “auteur” filmmaker had the balls to venture into is a huge gamble in current market especially with a budget of 100 million $. Any indication that the movie is a hit after opening weekend will put it in best picture race immediately for a nomination. All this movie needs is a 30-35 million opening weekend with a close to 40% second weekend drop and its in for best picture nom.
Editing is not necessarily for the whole movie. From what i read, there is a significant chunk of this movie that focuses on various races and that alone is enough to get this movie a nomination if its impressive…it doesn’t have to be <2 hrs to get an editing nomination. I wouldn't think that this movie would be held at the same standard of box office as a third film in a series. I do think this movie is supposed to be a commercial fare and not an auteur piece. The fact that they made this movie is risky enough. So the reviews being good and not great is exactly where this movie is supposed to be. Look at something like ad astra, it's an auteur film and it will loose 50 million for the studio. I am okay with this movie being something like martian in quality and entertainment value and not bohemian rhapsody. Baby driver was never a risky project like ford v ferrari and the surprise elements of that movie resulted in better reviews. People went into ford v ferrari expecting to be surprised just like they did knives out and that usually takes away from judging the quality of filmmaking. There is a reason this movie has been in development hell for 2 decades. No one could crack the commercial angle for this story. So if mangold could deliver the commercial angle for this story then he will be rewarded just like bohemian rhapsody was rewarded for being in development for many years and ultimately being a hit. Baby driver is just another version of a comedy. It's like comparing superbad with ford v ferrari. There is nothing risky about superbad. Movies with laughs and scares are the easiest bets in the current market.
1) Solid box office that makes the movie’s budget back is something I’d argue doesn’t really matter as much in the Oscar race anymore.
2) A film being “commercial fare” isn’t reason for the film to have bad reviews in the Oscar race. The part where you argue for why it’s not bad that the reviews aren’t great but rather just quite good for the movie reads much more as you convincing yourself that the movie’s going to be good than anything actually related to the Oscar race (which is fine, I just don’t see the links to the Oscar argument you’re seemingly trying to make here)
3) Few people will see racing movies as “risky” and even the people who seem confident in the movie presume that it will work for the voters who aren’t looking for anything outside the traditional. Thus your argument about Ford v Ferrari being awarded because Mangold achieved something really good out of a topic that’s really difficult to make a good movie out of isn’t the percieved story of this movie
4) Remember that Bohemian Rhapsody made $900 million. Ford v Ferrari will be extremely lucky if it gets $300 million, and even then it would have recieved a third of what Bohemian Rhapsody got. So comparing the two would be pointless, as the situation that applied for Bohemian Rhapsody will most likely not apply for Ford v Ferrari.
5) You’re not really pointing towards anything relevant with your editing argument in my opinion. Let’s look at all the films that got nominated for editing with an over 140-minute running time in the preferential era (why I consider length to be important is that I’d argue that films that have been considered overlong have been snubbed in this category before, for example The Wolf of Wall Street comes to mind):
Avatar
Inglourious Basterds
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (apparently I forgot this in my previous comment but the better reviews and strong best picture buzz apply here as well)
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Boyhood
The Revenant
Hacksaw Ridge
Every single one of these films got either a best director Oscar nomination or a DGA nomination, meaning that they had strong supports in the best picture race not only for nominations but passion for being top 5-choices in the race. Almost all of these films had acting nominations, almost all of these movies won other Oscars. This implies a level of strength that I’d argue Ford v Ferrari, even if you presume it will be a best picture possibility, will most likely not achieve these things.
6) This has nothing to do with Oscar stuff but something that just jumped out to me: about no one having “the balls” to make a movie about something like this, there have been others. Ron Howard had “the balls” to make a racing movie, particularly about a type of racing that isn’t popular in America. Isn’t that more bold than making an “Americans beat the Italians” movie? How is it that Ron Howard, who is considered by a lot of people as the kind of director who is as safe as can be, could have done that. And considering that Michael Mann’s Ferrari project, something that could have been genuinely daring, was trampled on by Mangold, I think it’s not necessarily the correct description to say that Mangold is doing the most daring thing by making this movie
Mad Max was a big contender, so that’s not a good comparison. But you are right about motor sport films and films about fasting cars having great editing or at least getting nominations. I think the comparison here is with Baby driver but, yes, Ford v Ferrari is a bigger contender for BP. However, usually BP films are nominated for Editing, even when they are dull or slow.
Ford v Ferrari has good/not great reviews and is a big studio film with two big stars and one big budget. Its success will be entirely determined by its BO numbers and if those numbers are even remotely disappointing, perception-wise (=Oscar-wise) it is done. First Man with rave reviews and a much smaller budget was nixed after it “only” made 105M worldwide on a 59M budget. FvF reportedly cost 100M to produce, plus marketing. It will need an opening weekend in the 35M range and long legs after to come even near breaking even.
P.S. While those four films you mentioned are clearly strongest in their respective acting categories, they can’t be ruled out of BP consideration just yet, either. I only see one of them actually making the cut but I could be very wrong and for all we know, all 4 could.
the knock against joker is that…its a comic book movie that is not breaking any new grounds…its less mature than logan. The dark knight/taxi driver/king of comedy inspiration(copy) is way too on the nose and all this + toxic nature of the movie and the message of the movie will prevent it from getting best picture. Not only that, the movie is not deep enough. Black panther is a one off because it is supporting minority leads in a giant blockbuster. Joker could get PGA but best picture is out of the question irrespective of box office just like deadpool
I personally would not vote for JOKER in BP because I just didn’t like it enough. I would vote for Phoenix though, great performance.
I keep coming back to the fact that X amount of voters have to pick a movie as #1 for it to make the BP cut. So I start looking at movies that will have the most likely votes for #1s. I don’t see the following having many voting it #1 to make it: Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Dolemite, Two Popes, Farewell, Little Women, Joker. While they will have a lot of love I see them more being voted in the 2-5 range as people’s favorites.
Movies I DO see with many #1 votes:
OUATIH
Irishman
Parasite
1917
Marriage Story
Ford v Ferrari (old white voters, in my opinion, will love this)
Jojo Rabbit
That’s seven. I am really starting to wonder if Rocketman can resurface somehow. Probably not. Would be cool.
Good point.
I do think The Farewell and Little Women could get a lot of #1s though, former is excellent, latter is hopefully excellent but even if it isn’t, it does have a big starry cast that could appeal to the biggest Academy branch, the actors.
Could be. And if so then there’s your nine.
It is expected to have legs based on trackings and it is tracking low to mid 30s opening. This is a movie aimed at middle america. But i dont think there is any doubting the box office component here. Any movie with 100 million budget will not go anywhere if its not crowd pleasing. Thats part of the deal.
I agree. Many think/have said Ford v Ferrari has some stunning work in below the line nominations. I’ve seen many predict editing/cinematography/sound/sound editing and my first thought was like you…ok if a movie gets both editing and cinematography it’s gotta be awfully close to being a BP nominee. I agree with Phantom that it’s going to need to be a box office winner and crowd pleaser to get in in the end. But I do disagree with him on the reviews. There are only 13 reviews up on MC so far so there are around 40 still to come. I will ride this horse until it’s dead, but I think this has a better chance than many are giving it right now. We shall see.
I am 100% with you on Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood not making it.
It’s interesting following Gold Derby updated predictions. Ford v Ferrari has now resurfaced to a higher average spot on lists than it has in quite some time with the most recent predictions. A few don’t have it in their top ten but those that do it’s in the 5/6/7 spot.
Joker is 100% in. Due to box office success. Bombshell is 60% likely
October.
It’s October but we do have some certainties.
That’s the point. We don’t. Every single year we learn the same lesson on Nominations Morning : we don’t have “certainties” even the night before let alone in October and definitely not a film that got mediocre reviews even if it delivered stellar Box Office. Joker MAY sneak into BP but it is nowhere near a certainty.
This time last year everyone and their mother swore that A Star is Born would be unbeatable. It didn’t even end up in the top5 in the end (no BD nod) even though it got rave reviews and was a huge BO hit.
If we have contenders that are as close to lock status as one can be, those are The Irishman, Marriage Story, OUATIH and Parasite.
logan is a better movie than joker but the only reason that movie was not in is because it has white lead….black panther is not just a superhero movie, its a black superhero movie and disney took a chance casting an all black cast and making it a hit. Joker is not that. So Joker will face the same fate as logan and deadpool. JOKER IS NOT BLACK PANTHER, IT IS LOGAN/DEADPOOL IN TERMS OF OSCAR NOMINATIONS
JOKER DOES NOT PLAY LIKE A REGULAR SUPER HERO MOVIE… YOU PEOPLE HAVE TO UNDERSTAND THAT.
the bottom line is, joker looks like a copy of other movies not as inspiration. Its box office is nothing special because we are in the age of superheroes were movies like deadpool and logan made 700 + million. So none of that is special. Warner bros wants you to think it’s special because its making them money and they want to rewards the team behind that movie with awards attention and you are falling right into their trap. Hopefully oscar voters are not like you.
To be fair if Joker doesn’t make the cut, it won’t because “it has a white lead”, it will be because it is a very divisive film that while some may love, MANY hate.
The Academy in general is not big on superhero films but it has nothing to do with race, not like they are not keen on embracing every remotely good film with a white male lead ever.
P.S. Black Panther got in due to its unbeatable numbers : it was the best-reviewed comic book film of all time (yes, better scores than the usual suspects on that list; The Dark Knight, Logan, Spider-Man 2, X2) and at the time it was the highest-grossing comic book film in the US, as well, even though it was a solo franchise debut. Yet it made more than the first two Avengers, any successful sequel with a more built in audience than a debut film; or any film in the Nolan trilogy.
I certainly think race played a role. Conventional wisdom in hollywood says that black lead films don’t make money internationally outside will smith and that was disproved by the movie. Black panther box office supported that. Even if it made 900 million, the movie would have been nominated. But you could see , not a lot of people not loving it…no director or editing or screenplay noms…it’s just a formality nominations.
I don’t agree but I will say I wasn’t big on the film, either. I may have just had unrealistic expectations due to the insane hype or I could be just a burnout at this point when it comes comic book films, but I didn’t love it. I liked it though. But then again I like most comic book movies, I can appreciate the scope, technical accomplishments and classic storytelling and all … it’s just in the last 5 years, more often than not, that formula has been boring me to death even if the film otherwise was a critically acclaimed Box Office hit.
2 problems with Joker. It is a divisive film that has been criticized for its violence. Joaquin Phoenix is not the best campaigner.
I think Phoenix can overcome his lack of campaigning skills and problematic past comments about awards – I mean sure didn’t hurt Sean Penn who won twice with a similar background – but for the Academy to go for Joker, WB needs to pull out all the stops for the Joker campaign.
The movie has been screened to Oscar voters. Many of them applauded especially younger voters. Bohemian Rhapsody itself was divisive… but it managed to get a nomination
Academy members like Chris Rock and Michael Moore called it a masterpiece
It doesn’t mean it’s 100% in at this point. 100% is only when the actual nominations are announced. There are always surprise nods and snubs. It happens every year.
Ok it’s more than 80%
My guess would be 60 %. May happen but it wouldn’t be that much of a surprise if it didn’t.
65% sounds right 🙂
Criticism for its violence is pretty lame, don’t you think ?
criticism is not for just violence…the implication is that violence is the only solution to all his problems. Putting the main character through a series of implausible circumstances on his way to rock bottom is just silly. No one will have a bad day like that. And ending it with an act of violence as the only solution to his problem is even sillier.
It would be so great to see Bombshell, Queen & Slim, The Farewell and Little Women ALL in Best Picture, not only because then Nominations Morning would be a triumph for representation but also because they all look sooo good from afar (The Farewell is the only one I’ve actually seen and I loved it).
Sasha has seemingly backed off Two Popes…with only one nomination for screenplay. But Dolemite is still doing gangbusters with SIX nominations. That’s more than Marriage Story!
I could see The Two Popes get two (script, Hopkins) but that’s about it which sucks for the brilliant veteran Jonathan Pryce who could still receive his first ever Oscar nomination in lead but if the likes of Egerton emerge not to mention the late entries, then there probably won’t be room for him.
Honestly, I’m sure Dolemite is a great film I will enjoy tremendously, but I don’t see it getting the kind of attention from Netflix awards-wise that could push it into Oscar consideration. Murphy may come close and the film may score a few nods at the Golden Globes in the comedy section, but I don’t see it getting more. Not because it doesn’t deserve it, simply because Netflix already has bigger fishes to fry. SEVERAL bigger fishes. We’ll see soon enough.
Yeah, it’s pretty obvious that Sasha is in the “stan” stage of her predictions. She loves Dolemite, so she’s trying to push it into the conversation, which I applaud her for. At this point in the race, pundits should absolutely push outside the box choices. If not now, when? I believe you pointed out that Tim Gray does the same thing. I want as many films in the conversation as possible at this point, because it helps films get seen, and that’s more important than any prediction.
Not at the expense of Joker. That’s the movie people love and want to see awarded especially Phoenix. Those other movies won’t be watched much except Little Women but nowhere near Joker (nor anyone expects it).
Joker features one of the most iconic characters in American cinema, it is a franchise film from a massive studio. Comparing its Box Office to low/midrange budget solo films is completely wrong.
Also, Box Office doesn’t guarantee quality. Just because a film makes a lot of money, it doesn’t mean it is deserving of a BP nomination. It just means the marketing worked and the audience loved what they saw. But the Oscars is not an audience award.
It may sneak into BP because the preferential system does favour divisive films (it only needs a few hundred #1 votes to make it) but it nowhere near a done deal. And for the record if it misses the cut it won’t be the fault of a more acclaimed film that made it in. It will be just the subjective collective decision of the few thousand established industry professionals who vote for the Oscars.
Bombshell is a classic bait. Politics, real life = bait. It’s Vice 2.0. I do not support such movies.
I have a different approach. As long as the movie is great, I couldn’t care less if it is “bait” or not. If Bombshell is great, it should get in. If it isn’t, it shouldn’t.