There is no doubt that Todd Phillips’ Joker has struck a chord. Where people say it’s dark and nihilistic at its core, the truth of it is, when you look deeper, it is mostly a cry for help. I know that seems like the antithesis of what Phillips, or the origin story for a DC villain might be, but I think that is how it has become such a cultural phenomenon. Were it a film just about a rando guy who was ridiculed and bullied because of a disability and then turned to violence as a way out, without the Joker or comic book framing, I would guess that 1) no one would go see it at all save for the art house crowd and 2) no one would have a problem condemning it as a film that glorifies those who pick up guns and shoot people because they feel wronged by society. Remember two things, though. 1) Travis Bickle kills bad guys to save someone else. Joker kills perceived bad guys as a way of becoming something or someone. And 2) you can’t really pull him apart from the Joker myth and must then confront the idea of just how deeply embedded these comic book myths have become, not just in our culture but in cultures all over the world.
In a very thoughtful and interesting essay, Devin Faraci writes:
This is the shape of the exact political moment in which we find ourselves. We have not lost faith in the system, we have come to understand that it is absolutely and entirely rigged against us. What’s more, we’re starting to realize that it isn’t just the system under which we toil that is rigged against us, it’s all systems everywhere. The protests that have convulsed cities around the world are not always easily broken down into left/right concepts, but rather are often deeply populist in a way that transcends political theology. While many of the protests are solidarity movements they are motivated in large part by grievances that impact the individual – Chile’s fire began with the spark of a subway fare hike.
What I’m sensing with Joker is a profound connection to it by some. And to me that could mean it flies right to the top of the ballots as number one for enough people to land a Best Picture nomination. I also think that there is a good chance Todd Phillips can get in for Best Director for his balls-out daring in making a movie like this. I think he has earned the admiration of the people who matter so that there is a really good chance he gets in with DGA or with Oscar – maybe both or maybe not.
From what I can observe there are three types of people who connect with Joker:
1) Those who feel victimized and/or abused either by others or by the system.
2) Those who like feeling dangerous and freaking people out – in my day it was being a punk rocker.
3) Those who are all in for the universe of super heroes and super villains or the Marvel or DC variety.
The first two are likely to cross over into industry votes. Obviously, the last one won’t.
The only thing that might cause a problem for Joker would be any real life events that might shift public perception at exactly the wrong time. But now is not the time to conclude that anything like that WILL happen. The key to the whole thing is Joaquin Phoenix’s performance. Without the framing of it being a Joker movie, he would still be singled out for his work – though it would land where most of his other work has landed, slightly on the fringes. That it’s all being done within the DC universe and is captivating adult males like it is? Well, that is saying something. I would, therefore, advise people to assume it’s getting in for Best Picture, especially if you’re predicting Phoenix to WIN Best Actor.
As for the other frontrunners this year, it’s really hard to say. Audiences are more reliable than the insulated world of the people who cover the race. While we can be pretty accurate with our predictions at this stage – let’s say 75% – that isn’t the whole story. We also can’t finish this year’s analysis yet without two very big movies coming, three if you count Queen & Slim, which hasn’t had its moment to capture the zeitgeist, which I have a feeling it will, but 1917 and Richard Jewell are the two to watch out for right now – all three of these films will blow a hole through the picture of what we have right now — or not. It’s still a wait and see, which makes it an exciting year, to be sure.
Since my brain often sees patterns, I see many patterns emerging in the Best Picture race.
And herewith, a minor SPOILER WARNING for anyone who hasn’t seen Parasite – skip this next paragraph.
Many of the strongest films this year end in explosive violence: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite, Joker, The Irishman, Queen & Slim and in its own way, Jojo Rabbit. What each of these films says about that violence is a subject for a whole essay on its own but I keep waiting for more people to see Parasite before delving into it. Violence as actual violence, as redemption, as revenge, with remorse, without remorse and of course, the Americans and the Russians kicking Nazi’s ass right out of the war.
There is another theme running through a lot of the films this year and that’s forgiveness and hope. Remember that idea of the one that wins is the one that stands out as unique to the others. The films that are too much alike can often split up loyalties. What will stand out, I figure, is that impulse towards something upbeat, positive, uplifting. This is especially true with the preferential ballot. Do we think movies with darker themes that won in the past might not have under the new system. The Hurt Locker was the last film with a dark-ish theme to win with the preferential ballot but voters had something to VOTE FOR – the first woman to win Best Director. There was a whopper of a narrative which pitted Kathryn Bigelow against her ex-husband, Jim Cameron with Avatar that was an easy call for voters in the end. But since then, uplifting has won the day, give or take, over downbeat or ambiguous:
2010-The King’s Speech
2011-The Artist
2012-Argo
2013-12 Years a Slave
2014-Birdman — debatably feel good
2015-Spotlight
2016-Moonlight
2017-The Shape of Water
2018-Green Book
That makes me think that our winner THIS year is one with an upbeat ending. So which of our contenders now have a “feel good” ending?
Slight spoiler warning
Upbeat or Feelgood ending
1917 (word has it)
Jojo Rabbit
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Two Popes
Dolemite is My Name
Waves
Little Women
Just Mercy
Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Motherless Brooklyn
Bombshell
Knives Out
Bittersweet ending that leans upbeat:
Marriage Story
Ford v Ferarri
Dark Waters
The Farewell
Rocketman
Hustlers
Richard Jewell (word has it)
Dark or sad or melancholy ending:
Parasite
Joker
The Irishman
Uncut Gems
Queen & Slim
Judy
The Lighthouse
End Spoiler Warning
So, I think the film you want to predict to WIN you should consider what you think people will be VOTING FOR. It won’t be enough for it to just be GOOD. The heart has to be involved somehow. Films that are SO GOOD they get the heart involved are possible too – the way Birdman was so good it just won everything – although it could be argued that people were VOTING FOR standing up against the onslaught of superhero movies. A vote FOR Joker would be, could be because people feel greatly moved by Phoenix’s performance. A vote FOR The Irishman could be that people just love Martin Scorsese’s films so much they want to reward him for this late career excellence. To know what people are VOTING FOR you have to know what they’ll be voting against.
We are in no way certain of what will win in any category right now, not until we start to see how people vote and for what – so not until the end of this month will be have a good idea.
But here are a few quick and dirty rules to follow:
- Actors rule. Actors. Rule. It’s all about actors.
- For a preferential ballot, voters need something to VOTE FOR.
- Upbeat endings seem to do better in era of preferential ballot.
- Best Picture and Best Director seem to have no problem splitting anymore.
- The jury is still out on how Hollywood “feels” about superhero movies, Netflix, or new technologies overall.
- Will Oscars be so white? I doubt it.
- Does the Trump presidency impact our tastes now and if so, how exactly?
- Are women going to break through and if so, which one? Will critics split again over whom to back?
- Will popular films come to play thus erasing the need for any discussion re: popular films?
- Can a foreign language film as good as Parasite win both categories? Magic Eight Ball says if actors really like it, that could be a big yes. Actors. Rule.
Herewith, my predictions which are likely going to be very off where they’ll be in a month. We’ll be posting the Oscar Squad on Monday too to add to the mix.
Predictions — Best Picture
Frontrunners – will be 8 or 9 most likely but here’s 10
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Jojo Rabbit
1917
The Irishman
Parasite
Marriage Story
Ford v Ferarri
Dolemite is My Name
Joker
Bombshell
Strong Contenders
Little Women
Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Two Popes
Hustlers
Queen & Slim
Waves
Us
Just Mercy
Richard Jewell
Knives Out
Dark Waters
The Farewell
Judy
Rocketman
Uncut Gems
Best Director – Frontrunners
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Sam Mendes, 1917
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Strong Contenders
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Todd Phillips, Joker
James Mangold, Ford v Ferarri
Craig Brewer, Dolemite is My Name
Jay Roach, Bombshell
Todd Haynes, Dark Waters
Lorene Scafaria, Hustlers
Melina Matsoukas, Queen & Slim
Trey Edward Shults, Waves
Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes
Marielle Heller, Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Edward Norton, Motherless Brooklyn
Jordan Peele, Us
Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Best Actor – Frontrunners
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite is My Name
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Strong contenders
Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Christian Bale, Ford V. Ferrari
Matt Damon, Ford V. Ferrari
Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory
Roman Griffin Davis, Jojo Rabbit
Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy
Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Adam Driver, The Report
Daniel Kaluuya, Queen & Slim
Edward Norton, Motherless Brooklyn
Robert Pattinson, The Lighthouse
Best Actress – Frontrunners
Renee Zellweger, Judy
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Strong contenders
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen & Slim
Alfre Woodard, Clemency
Elizabeth Moss, Her Smell
Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Best Supporting Actor – Frontrunners
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Tom Hanks, Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Wesley Snipes, Dolemite is My Name
Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy
Strong contenders
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Sam Rockwell, Jojo Rabbit
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Zack Gottsagen, The Peanut Butter Falcon
John Lithgow, Bombshell
Alan Alda, Marriage Story
Ray Liotta, Marriage Story
Sterling K. Brown, Waves
Tim Robbins, Dark Waters
Timothee Chalamet, Little Women
Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
Kelvin Harrison, Jr. Waves
Best Supporting Actress – Frontrunners
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Dolemite is My Name
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Strong contenders
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Shuzhen Zhao, The Farewell
Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit
Anne Hathaway, Dark Waters
Taylor Russell, Waves
Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Motherless Brooklyn
Elisabeth Moss, Us
Annette Bening, The Report
Original Screenplay – Frontrunners
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Quentin Tarantino
1917, Sam Mendes, Krysty Wilson-Cairns
Marriage Story, Noah Baumbach
Parasite, Bong Joon-Ho, Jin Won Han
Dolemite is My Name, Scott Alexander, Larry Karaszewski
Strong contenders
Queen & Slim, Lena Waithe
Bombshell, Charles Randolph
Waves, Trey Edward Shultz
Ford V. Ferrari , Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth
The Farewell, Lulu Wang
Us, Jordan Peele
Late Night, Mindy Kaling
Booksmart , Emily Halpern, Sarah Haskins, Susanna Fogel, Katie Silberman
The Report , Scott Z Burns
Adapted Screenplay – Frontrunners
Jojo Rabbit, Taika Waititi
The Irishman, Steve Zaillian
The Two Popes, Anthony McCarten
Little Women, Greta Gerwig
Joker, Todd Phillips, Scott Silver
Strong Contenders
Richard Jewell, Billy Ray
Hustlers, Lorene Scafaria
Just Mercy, Daniel Destin Cretton, Andrew Lanham
Motherless Brooklyn, Edward Norton
Cinematography – Frontrunners
1917
A Hidden Life
Ad Astra
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Ford V. Ferrari
Strong Contenders
Parasite
The Irishman
Little Women
The Aeronauts
Jojo Rabbit
The Two Popes
Waves
Editing – Frontrunners
Ford v Ferarri
The Irishman
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joker
Parasite
Strong contenders
Knives Out
Jojo Rabbit
Parasite
Waves
Costume Design – Frontrunners
Dolemite is My Name
Rocketman
Little Women
Jojo Rabbit
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Costumes – Strong contenders
Downton Abbey
Knives Out
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
Judy
The Aeronauts
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Production Design – Frontrunners
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
1917
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Ford v Ferarri
Production Design – Strong Contenders
Little Women
The Lion King
Joker
Parasite
Cats
Ad Astra
Sound Editing – Frontrunners
1917
Ford v Ferarri
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Avengers: Endgame
Joker
Sound Editing – Strong Contenders
Ad Astra
Rocketman
The Irishman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Parasite
Us
Sound Mixing – Frontrunners
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Rocketman
Ad Astra
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Sound Mixing – Strong Contenders
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
Cats
Joker
Animated Feature
Toy Story 4
Frozen II
Missing Link
Abominable
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Visual Effects
The Irishman
Avengers: Endgame
The Aeronauts
1917
The Lion King
Original Score
Marriage Story
Waves
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
Ad Astra
That’s it for now. And that’s more than enough!
Thank you for the spoiler warning re: Parasite. I am livid that Curzon have decided to hold onto Parasite in the UK until 2 days before the Oscars. Angry doesn’t describe how I feel about this release strategy. It’s only a matter of time before it’s spoiled but I really do appreciate the efforts!
Yeah, that decision by Curzon is infuriating. Thankfully I’ll go to a trip abroad in December, so I can catch it during that.
I would hardly consider Birdman a quasi happy ending. It is still the most nihilistic film to win BP. It left me hating humanity for all the wrong reasons.
But it CAN be interpreted as a happy ending. Which we all debated quite enough here at the time… 🙂
But it CAN be interpreted as a happy ending. Which we all debated quite enough here at the time… 🙂
I’ve noticed A Hidden Life is now widely predicted by many pundits for Cinematography (as it should be). But if it does get in there, isn’t it unlikely that it gets no other nominations like Silence? Should we predict it in more categories as well?
Perhaps but in my opinion the problem becomes that what other nominations would the film recieve since acting nominations (though deserved) seem to be off the table and writing (though deserved) seems even less likely. The score isn’t used that much, it’s not really a sound, makeup and hairstyling or visual effects movie, and with The Irishman already in contention for a nomination in editing, I doubt that branch will vote for two films that have running times of at least about three hours. So that would leave us with production design and costume design, and to me at least it wasn’t particularly showy in those elements (it has beautiful design but it’s everyday working costumes and simple rooms with few props). If I’d have to guess, it won’t actually even contend for cinematography, people are just putting a Malick film in there just because they feel like that seems like an easy predicion, even if I doubt that people will even see the film.
I agree that (sadly) zero nominations seems the most likely result. But if it does get in cinematography, it could show up for:
1. Score – I disagree that it’s not used much, at least if I recall it correctly. The bigger problem is the substantial use of non-original music. Does that make it ineligible even?
2. Picture – Seems like the natural category to get in with a small number of passionate fans, as it allows for many nominees.
3. Directing – maybe it will be the oddball choice of the directing branch, even perhaps without a picture nomination?
A pet theory of mine this year is that some people in the Academy (the more artsy group) will push back after the triumph of “popular” cinema last year. One of the easy picks for making that kind of statement is Malick.
In terms of score, I meant exactly that the amount of music not written for the film is quite large so the amount of original music in the film is relatively small
Haven’t seen Irishman yet (but I’ve bought theatertickets for next week), and no Marriage Story yet either, so no opinion on those. But right now BA looks like Phoenix’s to lose. The Joker performance is far more nuanced than reviews lead you to believe, it’s better than in The Master–one of my favorite movies. And I don’t care for nominating child actors, but RGD is in every scene of Jo Jo and he’s good, so if Jo Jo is big then who knows. As for Leo, he was great in the re-take tv scene in OUATIH, but kind of average otherwise. But then again if that movie is big with the academy….
As for Leo, he was great in the re-take tv scene in OUATIH, but kind of average otherwise.
You nailed that performance.
You should really consider Spider-Man: Far From Home getting in for Visual Effects over Avengers: Endgame.
Less Dolemite, Rocketman, Hustlers and Ad Astra. More Hidden Life, Farewell, Lighthouse. Thoughts?
Errr sorry the Irishman best visual effects? Why? Hardly ground-breaking nor is it genre type get nomination for best his effects…having said that I take exception it being on Netflix just for this year I no issue with it being a contender. But once again a film like ‘ the joker ‘ however controversial, is far more engaging cos once again it far more cibrmatically accessible film see through cinemas through full film screening period not casual obscure limited series of dates. I still take issue as many do here ANY Netflix online streaming film ought be Oscar contender or major frontrunner full stop. But I admire Scorsese and if Irishman is absolute slap bang masterpiece then I for it as frontrunner. But competition will indeed be stiff as I was absolutely blown away by Joker. which deserves be frontrunner too.
Maybe time for Oscar to award a film with a dark finale. But funny think Sasha you are wrong. Oscar have too much home for the dark themed film’s…I don’t need to list them we know them. Forget isolating analysis to ‘ dark end ‘ to a movie. As a whole film audiences are over Oscars self infatuation with darkness in drama winning out galore. But I take no issue at this stage esp with Joker and followed by Irishman winning best pic.
But still should be Endgame that should be at forefront. But we know Oscar determined to pledge unjust ignorance to a true epic
The Oscar usually goes to the “most best pictury” nominee if no actual BP nominees are available… THE IRISHMAN has that in spades either way… Having said that I do hope it goes to ENDGAME.
Of all the acting categories I think Best Actress is going to prove the hardest to predict. The only person I’d bet money on right now for a nomination is Renee for Judy. Scarlett is also probably in because she has two films that are playing so well to voters. Charlize has an excellent chance due to it being such a dramatic transformation but it may depend on how much voters want to burnish the image of Megyn Kelly (and how Bombshell is ultimately received). I think the other two spots are going to be much more competitive than was anticipated in October. Saoirse, while no doubt very strongly in the mix is no given as there is some strong competition for spots 4 & 5. There is a big film twitter push for Lupita (I was not as hot on this movie but know it has its devoted fans), Cynthia Erivo got herself back into the mix in a more serious way with Harriet having such a strong week-end, Alfre Woodard not only delivers a brilliantly strong performance in Clemency that keeps getting singled out by people like Justin Chang (today’s LA Times), she is also such a deeply respected actor by voters in every guild (and that does count at times like these) and Awkwafina is in the middle of a strong moment and her film was so well received. This is to say nothing of Jodie Turner-Smith. Queen & Slim looks great and may catch fire but there just may not be enough room at the table this year, despite a month ago people saying it is a weak year for women. When you know that at least 2-3 deserving actors are going to miss a spot it can’t be that weak a year.
Joker is exactly what a best picture nominee should be… An extremely financially successful movie with high quality acting and production value that actually made an emotional and social impact.
Whether or not it’s your cup of tea the facts are undeniable.
I totally agree with you. Word by word. I have exact the same opinion. It reminds me a lot what used to happen in the 90’s with big films that were extremely financially successful with artistic merits.
I would like to think that an award that tries to get attention to the best films of the year should have quality as its primary focus. Notions such as success, acting, production values (most of the movies being discussed anywhere even near the race have good production values) and short-term social impact should not count as much
I’m with you…
You’re right,it is about quality. But you can’t deny that the oscars often choose the movie of the moment over the actual best film of the year… Voters don’t seem to think for a second and ask themselves “What will still be as important in 20 years?” that’s what I mean about the social impact JOKER has… It will never win, but because of the things I (and you) said it definitely should be nominated.
I’m not sure if you mean that Joker will look important in 20 years or that it won’t but it feels important now. In the former case to me it’s impossible to assess the legacy of any movie and hence we shouldn’t try to assess it. And in the latter case, isn’t that merely accepting the things that don’t work about the Academy and to say that this approach is ok, and that it is the right approach, even though it seems we agree that it isn’t
I’m referring to JOKER being the “movie of the moment” which is a very helpful thing nowadays… 20 years from now no one will care.
Thinking back to the end of the 70s, when people were saying Deerhunter was an important film and Apocalypse Now was an over the top movie experience. Well, who’s important now? Over the top wins. But seriously, I think Jokers social importance is overrated. It’s just a movie.
“Joker” just crossed 299M domestically and 934M globally. It is easily reaching the 1B (even without the Chinese market) mark that many haters of the film doubted. The film is a huge phenomenon.
To be fair you didn’t have to be a “hater” to doubt the 1B mark. While I am not big on the film, I did appreciate Phoenix’s stellar turn and the 1B seemed like a reach simply because films like Joker usually don’t deliver the kind of legs – neither in the US nor abroad – that this film has been delivering. I expected it to be strong (900M) but not THIS strong. Now that it is most definitely in ‘divisive smash hit’ status, it will probably find the few hundred #1 votes it will need in the preferential system to score a BP nod but I continue to expect a BoRhap kind of performance in the awards season : filler BP nod, lead actor win, a few tech nods / wins. I would be stunned if it got anywhere near nominations in writing and directing.
I think Joker could become the prime example of bad and irresponsible film we have seen in recent years. We haven’t gotten into any deep analysis of it and we don’t need to because most critics have dismissed it for what it is: a shallow, dishonest and sensationalist film. The biggest issue I had with it while watching is its depiction of mental illness. Who is rigging the system? Many Trump supporters will say it’s the mainstream media and liberal Hollywood. But Billionaires like Donald Trump are claiming to be fighting the system and championing the people’s causes. It’s true that the system is indeed rigged against ordinary folks, but they are blaming the wrong people and are instead been manipulated by those who rigged the system. I call it a notorious film because it is a sensationalist film which has zero depth and literally asks the audience to sympathise with a psychopathic killer. And I thought Three Billboards was asking a lot. You might ask us to empathise with horrible characters, but you cannot expect to accept their actions. Jeez! As I said, the biggest issue I have with this is how it characterises people with mental illness. Also, crying about social justice types when your film is about a psychopath on the rampage to seek his own justice is totally ridiculous.
Box Office Update :
– HARRIET opened with 12M and the very rare A+ Cinemascore that is almost always a guarantee for a leggy run that in this case could mean a domestic total in the 40-60M range the very least. With critical scores also on an acceptable level now, Erivo is definitely back in the race.
– JOKER had a great weekend with exceptional holds both in the US and on the international circuit. Now it looks like it will get to 1B in the next two weeks even without China. I thought it would do well (900M) but I clearly underestimated it when I said it WILL need China for 1B. It doesn’t. I think this also means Phoenix is officially in a film too big to ignore.
– MOTHERLESS BROOKLYN ended up with mediocre critical scores (60 MC, 62 RT) and an abysmal opening weekend, both had been foreshadowed by the lukewarm reception it got on the festival circuit. Still a small chance Actors will push it through in one or two acting categories but in my opinion it’s done Oscar-wise.
Harriet could turn into a sort of “necessary” movie, not unlike Hidden Figures, for people to satisfy their curiosity. How many people, of all racial backgrounds, actually knew that Black women had played a decisive role in the U.S. space program? Similarly, many people don’t know a lot about Harriet Tubman, and a powerful performance anchoring the movie could draw them in. For proof, check out the Audience reactions at RT. By and large both Erivo and the movie are thrilling viewers. The Academy might want to take notice.
Motherless Brooklyn box office is almost 4M. The film ranks in 7th this weekend. It is not abysmal.
Deserving of note is “The Lighthouse”, that in 900 teathers reached 7M, and ranks in 8th. Only in this weekend, the box office of the film was 2M.
The estimated 3.65M is not “almost” 4M, it is almost 10% less and probably will be lower when actuals are released tomorrow. That’s a per theater average of only $2720 that IS abysmal for a semi-wide opening weekend from a major studio (Warner Bros.)
It will end its US run somewhere in the 10M range, its international prospects are practically non-existent (after this performance, it probably won’t get many theatrical releases in foreign countries, definitely not many with wide releases), so long story short, its worldwide total will be probably under 20M, my current guess would be 10M domestic + 5M overseas, and to be fair I’m not sure I’m not overestimating it still.
Its production budget is 26M, it comes from a big studio (WB) so the marketing spend was probably at least around 20M, meaning it would have needed at least 80-100M worldwide to break even. Not factoring in dvd / digital sales, tv licensing, streaming rights, it looks like it will lose roughly 35-40M. As I said : abysmal.
And I say this as the guy who was rooting for it to reemerge because I’m annoyed with the fact that the great Gugu Mbatha-Raw, who is one of my favourite actresses, keeps delivering outstanding supporting performances in films that end up going nowhere in the end (Concussion, Free State of Jones, Miss Sloane). It is bad enough that after her stellar breakthrough year (2014, two wildly different, critically acclaimed lead performances in Belle and Beyond the lights), the industry couldn’t be bothered to provide her star vehicles and she just keeps getting these “supporting wife / work wife” roles, but I just wish that they would at least end up being strong enough films to support Oscar bids since she should have already received her first nomination around 5 years ago.
It’s pretty bad. And $3.6M is not really that close to $4M when totals are that low. It won’t make $15M
Jo Jo Rabbit and the Joker are not good movies. Neither should be nominated for Bp or Bd.
https://media1.giphy.com/media/Gf7SbQ53IATHW/giphy.gif
I have not seen the former, but I agree with you very much on the latter.
I just have to do a little WIFF report from Windsor Canada, since our little festival has grown so much over the last 15 years!
Day 1 yesterday, I saw
Ask Dr Ruth (amazing, I learned so much about her, and I like her even more now)
The Chambermaid (interesting but with a few WTF moments that seemed not to fit the character at all)
It must be heaven (wonderful.. especially when he comes to America and everyone has an AK47)
Day 2 today,
Tel Aviv on fire ( hilarious and very entertaining )
Biggest little farm (absolutely beautiful, and I really hope it gets nominated)
Tomorrow I’m super excited to see Pain and Glory!
Joker was a brilliant character study & exploration of mental health & how it used to be neglected! I can’t wait to see it get a BP nom & hopefully Director also! I LOVE Joker! Wow our predix are so different, I’m betting more on Pop films this year, who cares if I’m off rn:
1) OUATIH
2) Marriage Story
3) Joker (I’m thinking this wins Globe Drama giving it major momentum, about to reach 1B$)
4) The Irishman (Marty’s magnum opus)
5) Waves
6) Cats (a possible 800M$ box office)
7) 1917
8) Jojo Rabbit
9) Rocketman (huge campaign)
Wish The Lighthouse was in there, the best film of the year imo
Best Picture is garanteed. Director, only if it gets a DGA nod
Might I add. As great as the entire cast of Jojo Rabbit is, Archie Yates steals every scene he’s in. Flat out hilarious.
Just out of Jojo Rabbit. Some thoughts.
I have no idea why the scores and reviews of this are so low. I flat out loved it. All of it.
It was way more emotional than I was expecting. Yes I cried.
For me, this is a slam dunk SAG nom for cast.
I love ScarJo often but this performance might be my favorite of hers for me. Just so subtle and loving and funny. I hope she gets nominated along with Thomasin who killed it!
In a just world Roman Griffin Davis gets a nom. Just not sure he will. But he’s in my top five without hesitation.
I love Rockwell in basically everything but don’t think he gets a nom. Just too small of a part albeit a great one. If he does get nominated this movie is a huge threat for a ton of wins.
I think Waititi deserves a nom too but don’t think he will.
Loved it loved it loved it.
I’m seeing it in a few weeks ! It feels like a film I will probably love, too, I’m just not sure about its Oscar prospects.
“I love ScarJo often but this performance might be my favorite of hers for me. Just so subtle and loving and funny. I hope she gets nominated along with Thomasin who killed it!”
Agreed. In a just world both Thomasin McKenzie and ScarJo should get Oscar nods.
It doesn’t feel like my type of film. I will be surprised if I look it. It seems too middle-brow, but that’s the kind of film that does well at the Oscars. It’s too bad Green Book only won this year as that will make it hard for JOJO to show any real strength.
I really think we need to pay attention in “Dark Waters”, that could be the dark horse no one is expecting to win at this first moment. Environment and Global Warming seems to be the spotlight issue at the moment with Jane Fonda being arrested every week. And her movement is rising. Yesterday, not only her, but Academy Award Nominee Caherine Keener, alongside Rosana Arquette were arrested with her. According to some piece of news, more than 50 actors manifested the intention to go protesting with Fonda. Situations like that always help a film. Pette Hammond at Deadline called the film ‘powerful and brillant”, and here at AwardsDaily Sasha wrote very nice things – while still not a review – about it too. Being directed by Todd Haynes, with a respected cast adds some points too. The same way that at the first moment nobody was expecting Moonlight, I just think this film can win.
Not going to happen. Saw the film at the same screening and while it is powerful and super timely, it’s just not in the same league as Moonlight by any stretch. It deserves to be seen by as many people as possible because of how important it is, but as a film, it doesn’t stack up to Carol (which is a comparison that will have to be drawn) or other films in the mix this year like The Irishman. I’d love to see it show up some places, but no way does it win BP.
The general public won’t see this. I predict it bombs at the box office. I think it looks good and will see it. I just think in a year with all these other heavy hitters it’s not gonna find the footing it needs.
I only watched the trailer once and I thought it looked (potentially) extremely good… Ruffalo can do no wrong IMO. I’ve loved that guy since I can remember.
Al Pacino is your number six? Really? Are you seriously predicting that Al Pacino will not be nominated?
I always say that the choices the Academy makes (or doesn’t) an year before tend to influence their choices in the following year.
The sentimental King’s Speech followed the cold Hurt Locker. Moonlight followed Oscar-So-White. Green Book followed a season where the actors’ fave (3B) was taken down by hate campaign. The Shape of Water followed the loss of tech marvelous female-lead La La Land.
Denying Roma could set the stage for the first international Best Picture winner (Parasite) or for the first Netflix winner (The Irishman).
If Jojo Rabbit had come out last year and Green Book in this, Jojo would probably have won and Green Book would be a top 5 contender… but would never win.
Zellweger and Dern are most definitely unbeatable.
Curiosity: If one or both of Lupita and Woodard get in (fingers crossed especially for Woodard), they will become just the third and fourth female black performers nominated for both lead and supporting, joining Whoopi Goldberg and Viola Davis.
Best Actor is in a very peculiar year. A very strong category but this year not that much correlated to an also very strong Best Picture list of contenders. We could have 3 or 4 Actor nominees in non-BP contenders. In the end, I think Adam Driver will end up winning this. Phoenix should absolutely have an Oscar now. Or two. Or three. But my feeling say he’s not taking it in the end.
Good point and analysis on that. I hope it plays this year for a first foreign language film Best Picture. But I hope it will be for Pain and Glory instead. I mean I also love Parasite but I just preferred Pain and Glory between the two. And there’s an embarrassment of riches in International Film this year both submitted and not submitted. Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Synonyms, Beanpole, Long Day’s Journey into Night and Ash is Purest White (from last year but was a U.S releases this year), Bacurau (in its flawed yet weird and transporting power), Atlantics, The Wild Goose Lake, Matthias et Maxime, Varda by Agnes and Saturday Fiction just to name a many.
Strongly agree. The old diversification rule… This one, at least, is always in the back of my mind. 🙂
I call it course correction, especially in preferential era where films with a high MC have dominated. Green Book was way too low for a BP winner and JOJO is even lower than that. That is asking a lot. Three main contenders have a high MC score but Hollywood is still low for a BP winner in the preferential era. I just can’t see any passion for that. I don’t many people who would put as their number. It’s okay, but nothing special. The industry might love it, though, who knows.
🙂 Indeed… I don’t think Jojo can win. OUATIH is borderline but fits the patterns a lot better. Plus, it made the October top 3 – top 2, even… (Which Jojo didn’t.)
Tour take on who liked the movie is quite off. People don’t need to connect to the character to enjoy a movie. A compelling story that you can empathize to can transcend personal experience. Good cinema takes you where you yourself never went. It makes you understand a perspective without agreeing with it.
Joker lays down the path to destruction and forces you to empathize with Arthur up until he uses violence. You can feel that he is suffering even if you were never a victim in that way. When he starts killing the audience probably gets split. Some still cheer for him because they saw the world from his perspective. In fiction that is not an issue. Others start to want him stopped but still understand how he got there. Everyone gets out with a lesson on mental health and stratification.
The cinematography and score of Joker will undoubtedly be among the best of the year. In other categories, I’m less sure.
Yeah, I could see it following a Dark Knight path (total coincidence there). Strong acting nominee/winner, gets in for a few techs (cinematography and score in this case, maybe editing, production, costumes, and/or sound), has many championing it for BP, BD, and BAS, but ultimately settles in for just a few noms and the acting win.
But it’s easier to get in BP now than in 2008 when there were only five spots for BP.
I will say that despite being a horrible and worthless film, Joker is well made. It might do well in tech categories. Cinematography and sound nominations are possible.
Joker should, but I won’t hold my breath. The Farewell, however, both should and will. Why is it being underestimated? I think it can make a real splash with the Academy. Voters will take to it like catnip. It is so artfully handled. The script is a lock, the supporting actress has a better shot than Da’vine in a generic, underwritten role, and obviously Awkwafina is getting in (helps if they are pretending it‘s a comedy and she wins the Globe). The score should be nominated too. Sasha, why are you sleeping on this movie in every damn category?
I dunno about Oscar voters taking to it like catnip considering the nominees and winners over the past years. It’s actually the opposite of what they’ve been going for lately.
Reminds me of If Beale Street Could Talk. Three nominations but still couldn’t get in BP.
It should come as no surprise to anyone when I say that I tend to underestimate these kinds of stats – because they don’t factor into my industry-stats-only final prediction anyway -, even though I do believe there’s a lot of truth to them. However, at this early stage, since there isn’t much to go on, and no industry stats have yet entered the picture, I should probably take them into consideration as well (which I often forget to), for my unofficial prediction… So, I’m definitely thinking about changing that to Once Upon a Time in Hollywood myself (I was anyway, even before this article), from The Irishman, but the length of the title is the main thing that’s giving me pause. That’s another pretty serious stat. Movies with titles THAT long just don’t win, unless they’re literary adaptations.
The last movie with at least five words in the title that wasn’t adapted from a novel or play and won Best Picture was The Greatest Show on Earth in 1953, and it seems to me that the only other one ever was The Life of Emile Zola. (Out of about 17 such nominees in total, by my approximate count.) If one doesn’t count Birdman, of course, which I don’t, because nobody anywhere really referred to it as anything other than Birdman that season – or since. Other nominees with at least five words in the title, since then, that weren’t adapted from anything:
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Kids Are All Right
Good Night, and Good Luck
As Good as It Gets (which perhaps shouldn’t count, since it certainly doesn’t feel like five words)
Four Weddings and a Funeral
Raiders of the Lost Ark
Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid
Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner
How the West Was Won
With a total random winning expectancy of about 1.61 wins. (And, of course, 0 actual wins. Not a tremendously promising difference, but not nothing, in my opinion.) And OUATIH has six words in its title… Of course, The Irishman has got the Netflix thing which may or may not work against it… It’s just too unclear. Maybe I should just predict 1917 to break the late October stat, instead. 🙂
On an unrelated note: appreciate the spoiler warnings immensely! Not having them in the past had always been one of my least favorite things about Awards Daily. I never said anything, because I don’t enjoy criticizing that which I love, and the good has, anyways, always far, far outweighed the very few negative aspects of the AD experience, such as that one. (Which I also assumed was a problem mostly for myself, not also others, since nobody else said anything either.) But it’s really nice to see it taken care of, hopefully for good… 🙂
I have been thinking about this for a awhile. In fact, since last year. Every BP winner since 1970’s have had the letters A, R and T in their title. Also, films the word THE in their title do well as do films with a single word/name. Films with long titles don’t do so well. Last year I thought had it in the bag since it had A and R in its title and was also a single word/name. But Green Book won and it had R in its title. Almost all the contenders have A, R, and T in their name so it doesn’t narrow it down. However, 1917 looks dead going by that stat. The Irishman seems to cover the most out of the contenders as it has all three letters and has the word THE in its title. But that doesn’t mean it will win because many have lost before. Roma is a recent example, but in reality it’s not really a stat or anything remotely reliable.
“Almost all the contenders have A, R, and T in their name so it doesn’t
narrow it down.”
Gotta figure that’s true most years, though, no?
“However, 1917 looks dead going by that stat.”
🙂 I DID think its title was a bit weird, it’s true. But who knows?! No precedent for a no-letters nominee, right?
“The Irishman seems to cover the most out of the contenders as it has all three letters and has the word THE in its title. But that doesn’t mean
it will win because many have lost before. Roma is a recent example, but
in reality it’s not really a stat or anything remotely reliable.”
Of course – these do seem pretty random. I think the long title thing makes more sense, though, because the longer the title, the more pretentious it sounds, and they don’t seem to like that (or just anything that’s too complex), generally (again, unless it’s a literary adaptation, which of course adds a ton of prestige, plus it removes the “blame” for the excessively long title, which is the original author’s “fault”). But, of course, this is hardly reliable, itself. Especially looking at the difference between expectancy and result, which is rather small. It’s just a potential clue, and I treat it as no more than that. 🙂
By the way, The Favourite also had all of these, like The Irishman. 🙁
If one would be trying to form this into something, couldn’t one argue that 1917 is really Nineteen Seventeen and hence would have some letters?
I was thinking about that too. 🙂 But they did choose to write it “1917” (of course, since the other way seems like it would have been weird and unnecessary), and that’s how it’ll show up on ballots and in ads and so on…
But then again, is the important thing when people read it on paper or when they talk about it with other, or when they think about the movie when they read the name on paper?
🙂 That would be the question, of course…
A film with just a number has never been a major contender as far as I can remember. 1917 might be that, but I feel it’s just going to be a tech juggernaut like Fury Road and Dunkirk. It’s pretty random and the long title thing is more clear. I usually think it doesn’t bode well for a film if its title is a bit of mouthful. That what I thought when I heard Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. I expect the Irishman to be a much stronger contender than The Favourite so it’ll have a better chance of winning.
“I usually think it doesn’t bode well for a film if its title is a bit of mouthful.”
Absolutely. Because then it’s not “catchy”, it doesn’t roll off the tongue – that’s another reason that stat might be a thing…
But we have to be a bit careful because Once Upon a Time in Hollywood isn’t among the most difficult titles. I think it’s one of the most accessible long titles. It’s just that it’s more difficult than the competition.
Yes, I agree with that. It’s also crossed my mind. Plus it has “Hollywood” in the title… 🙂
Hope you guys are enjoying a cozy fall weekend.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9f3655d38b663785d6f1276d21a9eaf00e031478cac3e4745f78ea4456f2ac10.jpg
Supporting nom for Little Women.
Timmy! Awww
I’m surprised The Lighthouse isn’t getting more traction on these lists. It won’t be a hit, but it ticks every box above and below the line. I feel like it’s the kind of movie people will be talking about for some time. It makes Joker feel like a warm hug.
Because The Farewell is A24’s awards player. They have a better shot with strong Asian women diversity narrative.
Makes sense. Wish there were room for both.
Lighthouse might clean up Indies. Unless they go for what they expect to make AMPAS line up. You never know with them.
If they wind up backing anything besides The Farewell, it will be Waves, not The Lighthouse (too “weird”) or Uncut Gems (too “unpleasant”). Though the back half of that movie is Academy catnip, the front half may be too in-your-face for an Academy that still trends old, white, and comfortable. I think they’ll wait and see how it does, if it can manage Farewell style box office then it gets a push, if not they’ll put all their eggs in one basket.
Agreed.
Joaquin is the best actor of his generation. He should have won for The Master or You Were Never Really Here. Will be fantastic to see him win this year.
Heading into the major awards season, I continue my record of my favourite movies getting largely ignored.
This year it’s going to be The Nightingale and Portrait of a Lady on Fire.
Although at least the former will get a lot of AACTA love, being nominated for 15 awards.
Joker is in my top 5 films so far this year. Joaquin Phoenix’s astonishing performance here is undeniable. He will get the nomination and probably win (still have to see a lot more but I don’t see how you can top this). This performance is what keeps you sitting there for 2 hours. It’s a tough watch. It’s gritty and raw; blurring the lines between a comic book villain and a real person. The film tackles the theme of mental illness in a confronting way that many might not grasp. The way this theme builds is horrifying yet Todd Phillips and Phoenix makes it work. I’m still trying to wrap my head around some of it and what the intention was here…The direction of Phillips is brilliant. Will he get a nomination? Will the Academy give this a Best Picture nomination? Too early to tell. I believe Phoenix can get the nomination and win without the Best Picture nod anyhow. The cinematography by Lawrence Sher should be rewarded with a nomination too. One of the main things about Joker is it gets people talking.
The Farewell. This is my favourite film of the year so far!
Parasite is a close 2nd.
There’s always that one that just pulls me in and moves me beyond all others. It’s more often than not a simple story with underlying complexities. The Farewell is story about many things. After all, the poster states quite clearly how it’s “based on an actual lie.”
I don’t want to spoil it for those who haven’t watched it yet.
I believe The Farewell will get in for Best Picture, Best Director (Lulu Wang – please!), Best Actress (Awkwafina), Best Supporting Actress (Shuzhen Zhao), Best Original Screenplay and Best Editing.
“The Farewell. This is my favourite film of the year so far!”
Mine too. 🙂 That said, it looks as though you might be a bit too optimistic about its chances at the Oscars. (But I sure hope that’s not the case… I hope it gets all of those, perhaps even more!)
Farewell is a very intimate story with a terrific backstory. Why are people sleeping on it?
Yes! I think it’s that quiet film that will make its way through. It’s a film many will fall in love with. It’s been released at a great time too.
Yes, it’s early days… I feel it happening. Will it happen? Let’s see how it goes in the lead up.
It should do quite well in the critics phase, obviously, but that may well be misleading, unfortunately…
What are your other favourites?
I’ve seen VERY little so far (as usual) – the other movie I loved was “Plus One”. Mostly (but not only) because Maya Erskine was absolutely brilliant in it, I thought. It’s actually close between that and “The Farewell” for me, in terms of my number 1 favorite – although the latter is, obviously, pretty clearly better, overall, objectively speaking… so I’ve decided to take that into account (plus the much bigger emotional impact it had on me) and go with it as the official provisional (and possibly final, as has actually been the case most years, recently, with movies I saw early on, by my standards – “Arrival”, “The Big Sick”, “First Man”) number 1.
I should go see Joker within the next 2-3 days. I debated for a long time whether I should go (I’m just not sure I’ll enjoy it enough for it to be worth it) or wait for the bluray, but I’ve finally given in… 🙂
Omg idk you but I agree with every single thing you have written here — except I haven’t seen Parasite, and I wasn’t necessarily thinking Farewell for Editing. But that score! Don’t count it out there!
The score was magnificent… (Which is usually a huge factor in my loving a movie, as long as other things are also very good, of course.)
Yes! I will be predicting it!
Yes, the score! I agree. And you must see Parasite ASAP.
Believe me, I will as soon as I can!
I saw Joker couple of weeks ago and I can’t stop thinking about it. It’s without a doubt a very powerful and important film.
Joaquin Phoenix is such a beast. He’s definitely winning Best Actor.
I mean – this guy is something else. And that’s coming from a diehard Leo fan. But I mean – just look at the evolution of Joaquin – from playing that evil emperor in Gladiator to playing Johnny Cash in Walk the Line to now this. This guy is incredible.
I always liked him but you can sense that inner torment that always shows throughout his performances in his career.
I rewatched We Own The Night the other day and I recently saw Two Lovers – he’s brilliant in those as well.
Joaquin deserves to win not only because he took on such a demanding role and nailed it but also because of his body of work. He is without a doubt one of the best actors if not the best one working today. And that includes my other favorites – DiCaprio, Bale and Casey Affleck.
What a monumental performance.
The film on the other hand is good if not transcendentally great. Joaquin truly made it work. I still can’t quite understand how he makes you wanna sympathize with him even after he commits these gruesome crimes. I mean – the biggest endorsement I can give is that my wife who HATES anything to do with superhero movies, etc. actually thought that the movie is brilliant and that she understood exactly why Arthur would do what he did.
And that’s the whole point – if you push someone to the limit, don’t then expect not to face the consequences.
We all need to be less judgmental and try to be kind and at least TRY to understand the other person. And that’s all you really need to do. Don’t try to change a person but maybe try to understand why people are the way they are. Don’t just assume that people are born evil or crazy or racist or etc. but perhaps see what personal experiences have led them to that point. Even if those people are evil and if they made the wrong decisions in life, at least try to understand why that happened.
Too often people nowadays just blindly jump to conclusions. And no one listens to each other. And that needs to change.
He was also excellent long before his first Oscar nomination for Gladiator and left quite the impression in teenage roles, as well, particularly the ones he played in cult hits Parenthood and To Die For.
No one is “definitely winning” anything at this point
Very true. We all have our educated guesses at the moment but until the big precursors announce, they remain just that : educated guesses. And even post-precursors, we will still be in for surprises, there is roughly one contender in every category every year who is widely expected to make the cut at the Oscars due to strong precursor showing then nada.
Yes, I think that person in the category is De Niro. Not getting a nomination. Phoenix is, but to say he is “definitely winning” is a stretch
I think Best Actor is much more fluid than we think. I could actually see both De Niro and DiCaprio get snubbed, not because the performances or their films aren’t great, but due to a combination of external factors : neither is expected to win this year, both have won before, both have serious challengers in their respective films for the MVP status.
Having said that, betting against the revered leading men of strong BP contenders would be foolish for sure but at the same time I can’t help my hunch that Egerton and / or Hauser will figure into this race much more prominently than we give them credit for and if that happens, the presumed quintet will be in trouble (Phoenix, Driver, Banderas, De Niro, DiCaprio).
Again, I could be wrong, this early on these are all just guesses and theories.
You will regret your “hunch” about DiCaprio and DeNiro. These guys get nominated because of who they are. Both of their films will be big Oscar players. Just because they won before and may not be expected to win should not deter them from getting nods.
Probably. We’ll see. If I were a betting man which I am not, I would bet that at least one of the two will be snubbed in the end.
These guys get nominated because of who they are.
I’m sorry but this reeks of elitism, entitlement and snobbery. Actors should get nominated based on their performances and not their names or else what’s the point of these awards anymore.
DiCaprio getting over Banderas or Pryce is abysmal. Even Murphy delivered a superior performance.
You must be new to the Oscars. They’ve always been a clique in Hollywood. That’s why there’s often a disconnect with the critics choices and AMPAS. I doubt lesser known actors would have gotten nods for Blood Diamond, Cape Fear, Silver Linings Playbook.
Yet they took so long to give DiCaprio that Oscar when McConaughey and Malek won on their first nomination. They don’t love him that much.
And Banderas and Pryce have never even nominated, despite being in the business a lot longer. And OUATIH and The Irishman will be much bigger Oscar players.
Bcause they are performers who haven’t spent their entire career being thirsty for that Oscar as opposed to DiCaprio whose entire career has been revolving around what could be the best Oscar bait. Unless it’s a big director and a baity role he will say no. That’s not being selective but thirsty. He no longer takes any risks which is incredibly boring and disappointing. I have a lot more respect for both Banderas and Pryce who have never been nominated for an Oscar. Actors who enjoy what they do instead of chasing awards.
Joaquin is in a league of his own from the very beginning of his career and his turn in Joker is indeed awe-inspiring. I’d love seeing him getting his first, long overdue Oscar. Both him and the late, great Philip Seymour Hoffman should have won for The Master as far as I’m concerned.
Just the way he looks is just so different – I mean compare him in Two Lovers or Walk The Line and then put a side to side to comparison of him dancing on the stairs in Joker.
WTF? How can this actually be the same person? No freaking way. Shocking.
Just amazing. Absolutely amazing. I wish Leo would be more risk taking like Joaquin. Leo is carefully picking his roles while Joaquin is more willing to take chances, which is amazing. Not that I love all of his movies but he is just more willing to take risks – which in a way is similar to De Niro in the 70s. Leo is more calculated as of late.
Totally share your sentiment about Joaquin Phoenix. He´s clearly on top of his game in “Joker”, even though I´d argue he has made some better movies before (“Joker” is a powerful, but flawed/superficial film IMO). But the immense Box Office success of the film will certainly help him regarding the Oscars.
Joaquin is the best actor of his generation. He should have won for The Master or You Were Never Really Here. Will be fantastic to see him win this year.
Heading into the major awards season, I continue my record of my favourite movies getting largely ignored.
This year it’s going to be The Nightingale and Portrait of a Lady on Fire.
Although at least the former will get a lot of AACTA love, being nominated for 15 awards.
The biggest development this week, in my eyes at least, was the reemergence of HARRIET and Cynthia Erivo. Post-TIFF the general consensus seemed to be that her performance is great but the film around her isn’t strong enough to support her Oscar bid
BUT
the film is expected to over perform at the Box Office and open in the 11M range in the US, an excellent result for a low-budget indie from a mini-major, with a relative unknown in the lead. It could actually debut at #2 that would be fantastic. Also, the reviews turned out to be much better than expected : it was in the 59-62 range on RT and MC for quite the long time and now that it is nearing its final score at both, it is at 75 and 66 that is basically Judy range as in clearly not enough for BP consideration but strong enough not to really hurt the chances of the lead actress playing an iconic role to rave reviews.
Long story short : she is nowhere near a lock for sure but I will say for quite a while now I was thoroughly under the impression that Best Actress is
1. Zellweger
2. Theron
3. Johansson
4. Ronan
5. Awkwafina
however now with Harriet reemerging in such a strong way, I would say she is probably in fifth place in a tie with Awkwafina and frankly, both still could make it because two presumed near-locks (Theron, Ronan) haven’t even been officially reviewed yet nor do we know how they will fare at the Box Office, while The Farewell and Harriet have already ticked off both those boxes.
Also while I still fully expect Johansson to get in, I must admit I’m slightly concerned and getting distinctive Blunt vibes : she is a solid contender in both actress categories but doesn’t seem to be going for the win in either and for Blunt that meant that even though she was considered to be a near-lock throughout the season in at least one category, in the end, probably due to split votes, she was snubbed in both. Clearly Johansson is in a much stronger position because her films are actually expected to land in BP while Blunt’s films were top15 BP players (contenders for potential filler nods but nothing else), nonetheless I remain concerned. In lead Zellweger and Theron have all the buzz, in supporting it seems to be all about Dern and Robbie, meaning Johansson could still be a nominee in both, but she may not come close to winning, either. And if she isn’t a major threat for the win, that usually could mean trouble in the nomination phase, too. We’ll see soon enough.
P.S. If I have Awkwafina and Erivo in fifth in a tie, that means the wonderful Woodard is in 6th. It will be a tough race since all seven are very deserving. I also loved Lupita’s performance, an absolute triumph, but I wasn’t big on the film even though I expected to be (loved Get Out) and I think the early release date and genre bias will most likely get in the way of her receiving a nomination this time around.
I’m so glad Cynthia reemerged as a contender because she seems once again fantastic as Harriet Tubman and she should have earned at least a nomination in the Best Supporting Actress category last year for her terrific work in Bad Times At The El Royale.
I hope you’re wrong about the Blunt vibes you get for Scarlett even if completely understand what you’re saying here. Man, it’s flat-out ridiculous she’s NEVER been nominated for an Oscar.
I AM probably wrong about the Blunt vibes, I was just thinking out loud and yes, utterly ridiculous she has yet to be nominated for an Oscar.
I don’t see the correlation with Johansson and Blunt. Johansson will have not only 1 but 2 films that will be big Oscar contenders. Neither of Blunt’s films were big Oscar players. She was replaced at the Oscars by the women from Roma – a film that was a strong Oscar contender.
To be fair at the time voters cast their ballots, for all they knew BOTH Blunt films could have made the cut in BP since both had some high-profile precursor support (PGA nod for A Quiet Place, Golden Globe / Critics Choice nods for Mary Poppins Returns, AFI top10 mentions for both, so they were definitely in there with a shot) but I agree that the Marriage Story / Jojo Rabbit combo definitely seems much stronger in BP this year than the two Blunt films did last year.
Saw Harriet last night. Erivo is the bomb. For a while now I’ve hoped that Viola Davis would play Harriet, but I doubt that Davis could have been more vibrant, more commanding, than Erivo is in the role. I strongly agree that Erivo will get the nom.
Question is who will get the boot then.
– Zellweger is as close to lock status as she could possibly be although her film won’t be a BP contender and she may have peaked early leaving room for your textbook “eh she is not THAT good after all” kind of backlash.
– Theron’s film has to still prove itself critically and commercially, if it fails on either front it could mean trouble for her chances, she is also playing someone voters may not love all that much. Having said that Bale was in a similar position last year and if he pulled it off, Theron should be able to, as well, since Vice turned out to be a critical AND commercial disappointment, that was saved Oscar-wise by its late release date. Voters didn’t have time to analyse (or even see) how the film did with critics and audiences before they had to cast their ballots, hence the strong showing on Nominations Morning. Bombshell is a late entry so there won’t be time for a backlash against it either, even if it underperforms.
– Johansson may not be seen as MVP in Marriage Story nor is she helped by potential split votes due to collecting votes in two categories but it would be a travesty if after all these years she could still not get her first nomination in a year when she could very easily be in 2 BP nominees on top of the highest grossing film of all time.
– Ronan plays one of the most beloved literary characters of all time (honestly it is basically Lizzy Bennett and Jo March at the top of that list, right ?), early word is strong for her performance and if the film gets the BP nod it is kinda expected to, then she should be in good shape for the nod. But just like Theron, her film has to tick off a few boxes first (critics + BO).
– Awkwafina AND her film received rave reviews, Box Office is excellent by arthouse standards and her nomination would make history. However she will probably need strong BP consideration to get in because her role is the most understated in the group and the film was released very early by Oscar standards.
Long story short, I still thoroughly believe at least 4 of these 5 will get the nomination, but at the same time nobody is a lock in November pre-precursors. I do agree though about Erivo : good reviews + strong Box Office + iconic role IS a combination that usually secures the nomination for the performer.
Maybe Awkwafina? But I haven’t seen The Farewell, so I may be speaking too soon. Is Awkwafina as powerful as Erivo? In any case, for now I’ll take your point and suspend judgment until I see The Farewell. Thanks for your thoughtful perspective.
THE FAREWELL is a beautiful film with an excellent central performance from Awkwafina, Oscar-wise the trouble is that is a quiet little film with an early release date and a very understated lead role and that combination doesn’t bode well for Oscar contenders when the Academy, based on precedent, tends to be more into flashy films with late(r) release dates and “big” performances.
I think The Farewell and its leading lady would be thoroughly deserving of Oscar nominations, however the reason why I think Erivo may get more votes is because her role is iconic, her film will be seen by more people AND more recently than The Farewell.
Having said that even if Erivo gets more votes than Awkwafina that still doesn’t mean latter won’t get in, it just means that in order for her to get in, one of the near-locks would have to end up on the “most shocking snubs” lists after Nominations Morning and frankly, that does happen in Best Actress every year to a presumed lock.
Too early to tell if that will be the case this year but I will say I would be stunned if the Zellweger-Theron-Johansson-Ronan quartet didn’t get in so that probably leaves the fifth slot for either Awkwafina or Erivo. It did look for a while there that former has the edge but now with latter reemerging with a better than expected critical consensus and excellent Box Office, it feels like they are 50-50 for that fifth slot after all.
Awkwafina got better reviews than Erivo for her Lifetime movie. And The Farewell is a better movie. And Awkwafina has First Asian Best Actress nominee narrative. neither is in contention for the win so that’s that.
Also, lets see how Harriet holds next week. I wager it’s going to be frontloaded this weekend.
What about Ronan? are the reviews THAT good to lock her in? Renee and charlize are not missing. I just feel that Awkwafina will ride a wave of support for this film. So then you have to look at which film has the stronger support. If LW isn’t a big player, Erivo can take her place as a stand-alone nom for her film. I always said it was crazy to have three black actresses in contention and envision none of them getting in.
The thing with Ronan and Theron is, that they will probably have key precursor nominations under their belt (SAG, Golden Globe, Critics Choice) before voters could read a single review or see a single number about their respective Box Office performances. I expect both to get those key nominations but if mid to late December it turns out that reviews / BO are not as strong as they were widely expected, this could be Mary Poppins Returns all over again : early key nominations (SAG, Golden Globe, Critics Choice) ? Yes. Later key nominations (Bafta, Oscar) ? No.
So while I am still predicting Ronan and Theron for the five, I’m wary about it because I don’t have crucial info at my disposal that could completely change my take. That’s why these predictions of mine come with an asterisk : sure, I think Ronan and Theron will get the Oscar nominations … IF their films manage to deliver good / great reviews and good / great Box Office. And for now that’s still an “if”. Even if not necessarily a big one.
Sucks because Lupita and Woodard are more worthy of nomination that Thristivo.
Also, people should stop underestimating Awkwafina just because they overestimate Little Women. She’s higher right now than Ronan.
I’m really not feeling Erivo and Harriet even on paper. The trailer didn’t help either. Why do I have a feeling that people just wanted to hype Erivo just so she could have a shot for EGOT? Based on thereview post-TIFF, she wasn’t even the MVP in the film. I have’t seen it though, but I will for sure. I’ll leave my other reservations for the film when I see it because there have been a lot of times where my first impressions changes but even just the clean and “new” fabrics they used for the costumes given the subject matter are most definitely a turn-off.
I haven’t seen it yet nor do I know what to expect from it Oscar-wise but it can’t be denied that the numbers back up Erivo now.
– Critical consensus is good (66 MC, 73 RT). Nothing to write home about but nowhere near bad enough to hurt her chances for real. Frankly this is all a big surprise to me because I haven’t read a single TIFF review that read like anything above 5 out 10 back in September but apparently critics at large liked it a lot more than the ones who saw it first at TIFF.
– Box Office is unexpectedly strong. 11M+ on opening weekend AND the very, very rare A+ Cinemascore that always foreshadows a leggy run. This is 2019 though so clearly “leggy run” has its limits nowadays but if it gets past 40M, which at the moment it has a decent shot at, it will be a solid hit.
– Right now it looks like it will have much better Box Office than Marriage Story, Judy and The Farewell and while MS has the Netflix excuse and latter two shouldn’t be knocked in this department since both did very well at the Box Office by indie standards, the fact that Harriet will probably deliver much higher numbers than those two films with similar backgrounds (low-budget indies), is quite the surprise to me.
– While Little Women and Bombshell are both expected to get better reviews and deliver better Box Office than Harriet, at this very moment Harriet has already proven itself in both departments. While I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Little Women / Bombshell duo receive much better scores than 73RT and 66MC, and make a lot more than 40M in the US, the fact remains that we just don’t know yet how those films will do. If either flops in either department, Erivo could have the edge. If either flops in BOTH departments she definitely will.
For what it’s worth my Best Actress prediction is now slightly different.
1. Zellweger
2. Theron
3. Johansson
4. Ronan
5. Awkwafina OR Erivo
Bombshell is absolutely not out grossing Harriet, and there is no sensible person who believes that; even Vice numbers for it are pretty unreasonable.
It will get a wide release in the Holiday corridor, meaning even if it opens low – which make no mistake it will considering it will be up against enormous (tentpole) competition – thanks to Holiday weekdays it will most likely quadruple its OW with ease, and considering it is expected to play for another month after with Oscar buzz the very least around the performances, it should be relatively leggy even after the Holidays.
Jennifer Lopez’s Second Act from last year is a decent comp here : it was a female-centric wide release that debuted around the same time Bombshell will this year, it opened with 6.5M and then ended its run with six times that, 39M. And that with shit reviews, mediocre audience reactions and zero Oscar buzz.
Since Bombshell will definitely have Oscar buzz and (most likely) better reviews (due to better pedigree and early word) and audience reactions (zeitgeist + more star power), my guess would be an opening in the 8-11M range that won’t seem much compared to its massive competition, but once the Holiday weekdays kick in and all is said and done, that could easily result a 50-60M domestic total, a 5/6x multiple only made possible by the Holiday corridor.
P.S. Its threshold of success will be also much lower than its closest comp VICE (big ensemble full of movie stars in a film about controversial real-life right-wing people) since it cost roughly half as much to make.
Thomasin McKenzie is powerful and outstanding and gives a winning performance. Scarlett is also worthy of a nomination. Waititi is a genius.
Completely agree. I hope all three get nominated.
Sasha is the only expert predicting Dolemite is My Name. Girl, it’s not happening. A Boring Day in the Neighborhood isn’t getting in either.
Have you seen Neighborhood? Did you really find it boring? I thought it was anything but.
Do you seriously think it has any chance to get in BP? LOL
Not sure at this point, but that’s not what interests me right now.
It’s too crowded and there are better movies waiting in line. And yes, I thought it was boring.
Better movies waiting in line, maybe, but also worse movies getting in.
To be honest that trailer bored me to death. Maybe the movie is not boring but I’m not too eager to see it.
After having seen Dolemite yesterday I also find it puzzling how this should be a contender. I wouldn´t even argue about it´s quality (it´s fine and mildly amusing at times), but I doubt the Academy will see something other than a Eddie Murphy showcase in it. And 99% of the jokes are so lame and vulgar that many voters might be put off by it.
Just saw Pedro Almodovar’s Pain Glory. Wow. Antonio Banderas gives the performance of his career and undoubtedly one of the very best of the year. Even in a year of such extreme competition in the Best Actor category, he has to earn at least a nomination for his phenomenal turn. Penelope Cruz is as magnificent as always in her small but crucial part but sadly there’s no chance she’s in for Best Supporting Actress. Holy shit, easily among my favorite films this year.
do not tell too loud, it seems that this site has deliberately decided to undertone anything about this film… even against what critics like Alonso Duralde are commenting, or even precedents and precursors. While there are films that this site clearly want to happen (Ford v Ferrari, Dolemite is my name, Waves), there are others that well, it seems they do not want to happen, for whatever reason (Pain and Glory, Us, Avengers Endgame). It happened last year, too, with Bohemian Rhapsody or BlackKklansman which also were toned down in perception and other like First Man which were pumped up… and well, we all remember how that went, don’t we?
Sony is kind of botching the release. It should have come out earlier or later, instead it’s fighting it out in the specialty box office with Parasite, The Lighthouse, and Jojo Rabbit to its detriment.
It actually is doing well in the specialty box office being the biggest foreign-language opening of year and was only surpassed by Parasite. Pain and Glory also is over-performing for a foreign-language film that is not the genre-ish arthouse like Parasite. Maybe because of Almodovar’s name as well, but it’s specialty box-office performance was reported as “steady” even with new titles coming in.
Now what I want from Sony is a full-blown campaign so that it gets in Film, Director, Supporting Actress and other tech categories because I think with right campaigning then it could score more nominations than Parasite, and possibly wins.
I really won’t mind if Banderas takes it over Phoenix. He’s that good! I also have hopes for Cruz in Supporting Actress. She’s probably the best along with Robbie in OUATIH from all the films I’ve seen this year. (sans Dern in Marriage Story and other late film releases)
I’ve always loved Renee Zellweger but I think her performance in Judy, good as it is (which is really good and at times especially moving), is definitely not a performance deserving of frontrunner status. I honestly hope either Charlize Theron, who seems once again like an absolute force in Bombshell and has been snubbed even for a nomination over the last few years to a point it ends up ridiculous (Young Adult, Mad Max: Fury Road, Tully) or Scarlett Johansson, clearly so heartbreakingly real in Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story and herself never even a nominee (not even for Lost in translation or Match Point, for Christ’s sake, like wtf), end up with the trophy. Now don’t get me wrong. Renee has given a number of terrific turns over the years and I could argue she was deserving of an actual win for Bridget Jones’s Diary and Chicago and I was really happy for her comeback to a lead turn that earned such critical acclaim going to see the film but having seen it by now and as far as I’m concerned, it’s a little to much.
We’ve seen a number of jaw-dropping, award winning lead turns from actors, both male and female, in the role of music icons. Renee’s performance as Judy doesn’t even come close to many of them, largely because despite being overall a really good and occasionally truly touching turn, as I’ve said above, doesn’t carry the emotional weight one would expect given both Renee’s talent and the part of such a tortured icon itself. She’s technically impressive, sings beautifully but relies a little too much in ticks and mannerisms to approach the unforgettable greatness of let’s say Marion Cotillard’s instantly legendary work in La Vie En Rose or Joaquin Phoenix’s magnificent turn as Johnny Cash in Walk The Line. Renee Zellweger is impressive, showy but a little too unsubtle here to deserve the kind of hype she enjoys. In a supposedly “weak year” for the Best Actress category that still gave us work as astonishing as Florence Pugh’s turn in Midsommar or Elisabeth Moss’ performance in Her Smell, that could reward clearly dynamite work from Theron, Johansson or the always mesmerizing Saoirse Ronan, once again earning raves in the first test screenings for Little Women, I’m afraid Renee’s work in Judy is not deserving of an actual win. I truly hoped it was before seeing the film. It doesn’t obviously change the fact that this is exactly the type of performance voters are most likely to reward.
I get you, but Scarjo’s performance is not something that deserves to be called the frontrunner either.
It needs to get in BP for Phoenix to win so yes. Not Director though.
I’m still skeptical but if Phoenix wins the GG I’m predicting it.
YES please! My minimum are Picture and Actor but whatever it can get on top of that will be fantastic.
I went to see Joker for precisely the same reasons I went to see The Lighthouse: respectable reviews, fantastic close-to-the-edge acting, beautiful cinematography, and a fresh take on psychological horror and the descent into madness.
I am not a fan of comic book (or fantasy) movies and have seen only two in the last twenty years. To me, Joker was not comic book. Hats off to Phillips and Phoenix.
Well, Pete Hammond at Deadline, called “Dark Waters” – “enormously powerful film”. Said it got the longest stading ovation from the SAG Members Screening he has ever testimoned this year. Called both Ruffalo and Robbins superb. I always tought the film was a strong contender.
Sasha really liked it
Good for them for no one’s gonna catch that at the cinema.
Well, yesterday I wrote exactly the same essence of this article, including some exact lines – like the anti system and the protests in Chile. And some people at another trend tried to diminish me. I would like to know Now their feedbacks about Sasha’s brillant essay. Those who ignore that the film became such a cultural phenomenon – an anti system statement, a call for freedom of being – are in some way blind or denying the reality. No way Phoenix loses the Oscar, and I can clearly see a scenario where Joker pulls a “Silence of Lambs” situation and wins the most important prizes. Also: The Academy, desperate for ratings, will not ignore an (almost already) 1B box office film.
Phoenix might lose the Oscar. He is not a lock for the win, no one is at this point
A World War One movie with an upbeat ending? Oookkkayyy…that’s an interesting choice if true.
I think Phillips’ sub-Breitbartian ranting in pre-release interviews about how he couldn’t make comedies anymore because of “SJW’s” was unhelpful to his cause. I suspect he misses director.
Morgenstern damn near called the Irishman Scorcese’s best film in his review today, and Morgenstern is no pull quote whore. He was equally bowled over by Parasite (which I still think has a legit chance to pull the BP upset)
tend to agree with this. i think it can make it in the BP lineup but no to director.
Phillips cant make comedies anymore because of Single Jewish Women?
🙂 I laughed out loud!
I don’t think Phillips’ rant will affect his chances in any way. Most people already forgot about it and many actually agreed with him. He didn’t say anything bad, he just expressed his opinion, people were nominated and even won after much much worse things (Green Book is the most recent example and it was right before/during voting). It’s like saying Martin Scorsese comments about Marvel movies could affect The Irishman chances, that’s nonsense.
It’s about a guy trying to deliver a message that will save lots of people… If he delivers the message and all the people are saved that could totally be an upbeat ending to a situation even if it exists in a larger shitty war.
Going to be tricky and if not handled well will open Mendes up to charges of trivializing the war for artistic convenience
“I would, therefore, advise people to assume it’s getting in for Best Picture, especially if you’re predicting Phoenix to WIN Best Actor.”
I think the same. I am not predicting Phoenix to win the Oscar, but I have him a close second. I think it will get in and will shocked if it doesn’t.
I am 100% with Sasha…I think Lupita gets in for US.
Let’s hope so man. To say she’s deserving of a nomination, at the very least, is actually an understatement. Her performance deserves to be considered iconic for years to come. She’s just extraordinary in an extremely difficult dual role and between this and her delightful turn in the wickedly delightful Little Monsters, she’s having one of the best years of her career.
I hope she does. She’s amazing in it.
I think Lupita is getting as well. She’s campaigning and Universal has already sent out screeners for a refresher. Plus, she had a backing for a nomination all year. Why ignore a film that has made more than all of the other contenders combined, especially lead by a WOC who has won an Oscar before?
FORD v FERRARI is ever so slowly showing up on more and more predictions. Sasha has it now in the 7th slot in Best Picture and a slew of craft noms. Gold Derby recent prediction changes has it moving up on editor’s predictions as well.
EW had a tweet from an editor today that said ‘FORDvFERRARI really grew on me over its laps, this might be my favorite Matt Damon performance & Christian Bale’s terrific too, will play extremely well to mainstream America & very likely #Oscars voters looking for more traditional Oscar fare, could see surge in awards race’
I’m sticking to my guns that this, while it won’t win many or any, will make the BP lineup when it’s all said and done.
We lived same with First Man.
Lol. That’s hilarious.