Tomorrow the New York Film Critics Circle will start announcing winners – I think this happens early and they do it on Twitter. We will be here trying to keep a record of the proceedings.
With the exception of Carol (sob), all of their winners since 2009 have gone on to be nominated for Best Picture, and two have won: The Hurt Locker in 2009 and The Artist in 2011.
They sometimes award one film Picture and Director – like last year’s Roma and Alfonso Cuaron, but they also can split it up, as they did the year before with Lady Bird winning Picture and Sean Baker winning Best Director for The Florida Project. La La Land and Moonlight split in 2016, American Hustle famously won in 2013 with Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave winning Best Director.
I figure there are a few possible scenarios that could play out.
1. Little Women wins with either Greta Gerwig winning in Director or someone else. It would be kind of funny if that someone was Noah Baumbach. They gave Lady Bird Best Picture so they might want to repeat that. Also, they like to award films that haven’t yet opened, as they did with American Hustle. So Little Women might fit that nicely.
2. Marriage Story wins Best Picture, and either Noah Baumbach wins Best Director or, say, Martin Scorsese wins for Best Director. Or, wouldn’t it be funny if Greta Gerwig won for Best Director.
3. The Irishman wins Picture and Director – or maybe it splits and someone else wins Best Director, like Bong Joon-Ho for Parasite.
4. Parasite wins, and someone else wins Best Director, like Baumbach or Scorsese. Or Bong Joon-Ho.
5. Uncut Gems wins, and someone else wins Best Director. Or the Safdies do.
It seems like there are so many movies that can rise as the chosen film by critics. No one knows what that movie is going to be yet. We suspect it was going to be Parasite but it could just as easily be The Irishman or Marriage Story.
Best Actor – I’m gonna figure it’s down to Adam Sandler for Uncut Gems or Adam Driver for Marriage Story and I’m leaning towards the latter. I’m getting a Marriage Story vibe from New York overall and it’s going to win something there – or maybe everything. After all, the Gotham jury members are pretty much crossover voters, at least partly, with NYFCC.
Best Actress – Still thinking Renee Zellweger continues to her winning streak, but if it isn’t her – they picked Regina Hall last year for Support the Girls, the year before was Saoirse Ronan for Lady Bird, Isabelle Huppert for Elle the year before, and Saoirse Ronan for Brooklyn. Oh what the hell, let’s just say Saoirse Ronan wins for Little Women. Make it a threepeat. Jodie Turner-Smith could surprise and win for Queen & Slim. Maybe Alfre Woodard wins for Clemency. I dare them to pick Lupita Nyong’o for Us.
Best Supporting Actor – If they’re smart they’ll pick Brad Pitt for this because who would not want Brad Pitt showing up awards night? Or it could go to Joe Pesci for The Irishman. Or Al Pacino.
Supporting Actress – Laura Dern very likely has this in the bag, although you know, they could go Jennifer Lopez for Hustlers.
The bottom line is that their choices are likely to be down to Marriage Story, The Irishman, Little Women and then peppered with wild card predictions.
But it feels like an unpredictable year all around – so it will be exciting to see how things land. We’ll find out tomorrow.
Best First Film: Atlantics
Nothing yet? It’s going to be a looong day.
I done sugarcoating the bullshit parts of the awards race i been ‘diplomatic;’ for far too long with some critics groups who think they are the letter of the law…and none more so than the self righteous, increasingly socialist anti- conservative bashing nyfcc. who the fuk do they think they are?
whoah ok sugar rush or maybe lack of food given mnature of awful virus i endured past 2 wks. but if you take my health condition out of the equationyou still have a socialist- politically scewed assessment of the film this critics circle crown as best picture..i mean goodness me they had the gall to ignore ‘Saving Private Ryan’ and ‘Return of the King’ for one..the New York Times indeed once used to asssess issues on merit. I was once a subscriber but i frankly told them to ‘go fuk themselves’ (metaphorically speaking of course)’ by kicking their membership down the road and over the cliff ledge if you know what i mean.
American values or any countries values are enshrined in a consitution or equivalent or rule of law..the issues that journalists debate must be put seen through both political persuasions not one or the other..an issue in a film should resonate to level of relevance beyond politics..Unfortunately large part of reason i ditched my associated with ny times (any coincidence more aggressive the overkill Trump Bashing articles the nytimes commits the more aggressive the new york fcc becomes in propping up a leftist agenda?
So too i be vehemently against a critics group embracing a hard right agenda. but facts cannot be denied..statistically 90% of nyfcc circles decisions of who wins best picture is driven by left wing ideology not which film deals with issues or presents itself as sheer quality artform expression on merit.
Those once revered critics of new york times were sacked back in early 2000’s when i was subsciber..speaking from outside in as an aussie i regret the only international form of journalism i was subscribed to was new york times.
I think it time for the new york film critics circle to balance out their membership base beyond just new york times socialist political leanings..limit their influenmce by expanding their membership base to incorporate right leaning press and ‘swinging’ press ones that stand for sensible stance on issues that a film may may not present or engage wtih rather than just political leanings..
both the new york times and the new york film critics circle represent a microcosm of a all too common problem that plagues this race..either the countless excessively complex web of critics circles fall into line behind behind the nyfcc or they reactive in opposition to them.
So too the LA times has been plagued by the same bullshit of late..is it any coincidence everyone both new york and la twqo biggest cities of the USA are blinded by their hate of the right to champion not the true best film of the year but the one that engages with the most anti- trump political msg? this then jeopardises and politicises the entire oscar race…potentially..
But ray of hope is a number of film critics circle that whilst they may not embrace my preferred top choices and lot of others year on year as best pic best director.,.they at least assess best picture director and script on artistic merit and ability of those films they embrace to not stoop to pandering to the left or right.
Hence and after seeing Ford vs. Ferrari (my review to come soon enough too ) , the Joker, for instance..these films may have some political references but they dominated by ambitious, bold challenging stories with technical precision and filmmaking at its most flawless execution..and i sincerely hope for sake of flagging public credibility in lot of your eyes abd mine..the growing less established lets say moderately established critics circles of the Phoenix, San Francisco, San Diego, Atlanta, Toronto, Dallas film critics will continue to seize their day whenb they announce there winners and as they have in recent times resist the ‘fall into line mentality’ of other older critics groups to follow like a blind and deaf zombie the call to political arms of the nycc, la crticis, and even to lesser bu worryingly growing extent the Chicago critics circle .
But truth is that the critics circles groups ought to realise they just chewing up precious campaign time needed for oscar contenders and ought to unite despite their differences to merge and retthink some of the bigger ones that are frankly leading to uinproductive outcomes sometimes more often than not in past oscar races.
I really think both the new york zone of media and la zone of media are out of step with public perceptions and frankly if one were to look at it politically Trump continues to far and away be the peoples choice for president so if i were the nyfcc and lacc i would dramatically reeavaluate the ‘politics first;’ film merit second mentality and go for true best pictures of the year at present i say eitherh Joker or Ford vs. Ferrari. It really is as simple as that.
I wondering just how many more critics groups will dilute and confuse both us and awards season’s integrity in public eye this year more broadly..all these decades of critics groups and jury is out in ouir eyes over how helpful they really are in determining oscars outcomes are they even necessary? collectively, these critics groups have a once in a generation opportunity to answer this question emphatically and show they can be in sync with the public attitude to cinema merit over political self interest for which films ought win best pciture i say in these critics circles.
“they had the gall to ignore ‘Saving Private Ryan’ and ‘Return of the King’
That didn’t age well for sure.
Oh but they have filmmakers have since tried to emulate the precedent setting successes of making film’s of similar style and genre during and after these films came a d went in the cinema me thinks u need to reflect u thoughts here
I shall.
I think…
Picture Marriage Story
Director Marty
Actor TRIBECA man, de Niro
Actress Scarlett
Sup Actor Pesci
Sup Actress Dern
Screenplay Parasite
Cinematography 1917
Foreign Parasite (have a strong gut feeling they will pick Atlantics instead)
Animated I lost my hand
Non Fiction Apollo 11
First Film Booksmart
Considering how much critics are trying to make Sandler and Uncut Gems happen, I think at least he is safe for win.
What time are they expected to drop?
They start announcing at 10 New York time, so in about 2 hours. It is expected to go on for several hours.
Is there a ceremony or just announcing it on Twitter?
Just twitter, on @Sidney_Falco.
Oh no, they are also the lunch break people daaaamn.
Somewhat predictions, somewhat NGNG, somewhat wishful thinking:
Film – Marriage Story
Director – Terrence Malick, A Hidden Life
Screenplay – Uncut Gems
Actor – Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Actress – Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Supporting Actor – Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Supporting Actress – Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Cinematography – A Hidden Life
Foreign Language Film – Parasite
Non-Fiction Film – Apollo 11
Animated Film – Toy Story 4
First Film – Booksmart
The more I experience it the more I believe: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is the Gospel of Cinema.
Amen.
https://media0.giphy.com/media/f0NY7fREWr9m0/giphy.gif
This is a battle between Parasite and The Irishman. Come on, Parasite!
I think the biggest obstacle Little Women has that it wasn’t in serious consideration for anything until roughly a week ago when its embargo ended and it surprised everyone with its rave reviews that was simply not expected. Based on early word from industry screenings good reviews were expected, yes (70s range MC) but raves (90 MC) ? Nope.
Meanwhile fellow late entry 1917 that had its embargo end on the same day and started screening a whole month later than LW did, is clearly getting the mentions left and right because unlike Little Women, that film was in serious consideration in the top categories even sight unseen and pre-embargo. OK so it emerging as a legit player in acting and writing was a surprise, but for BP / BD even sight unseen it was predicted by most pundits.
So questions remain : was the two weeks post-embargo, enough for NYFCC / LAFCA / GG / SAG voters to process this new development (unexpected LW raves) and factor it into their decisions OR was it too late OR they already had their faves anyway and they just couldn’t be bothered OR they didn’t care for the film with or without rave reviews ? All legit possibilities.
P.S. My guess for NYFCC is The Irishman or Marriage Story, viable surprises being Little Women and 1917. A minor game changer would be if one of the latter two won, the first two are sorta expected at this point.
NGNG
International Film: Atlantics
Actress: Lupita N’yongo
Picture: Us
NGNG: Florence Pugh for cumulative work in The Rock flick/Lesser Hereditary/LW
I would really, really, REALLY prefer seeing an Alfre Woodard or Mary Kay Place surge start here as opposed to a Renee Zellweger coronation. I cannot believe we’re all going to fall for this drag performance when other beautiful, truly deep performances are available.
Still watching Irishman. Damn this movie is long.
This felt like I was watching it for three and a half days not hours. It’s better to watch it intermittently throughout the day or like a mini series. Still boring but at least you’re not dozing off.
Why Joker is not ? Why Joaquin Phoenix is not a contender?? Please, someone tell me.
I got a feeling that a lot of American critics didn’t dig joker but international critics did.
Not only critics but audience as well. I’m European and most people I know loved it. People bashing it and calling it violent are mostly Americans from what I’ve noticed on social media and forums. My theater also had a very good reaction to it both times I’ve seen it. Nobody walked away and people looked like they were enjoying it. But Europe has always been more open minded to the cinematic art and we also have to take into account America’s problems with shootings.
Only american critics and media hated it, for political reasons, the rest of the world loved it, including americans beyond woke twitter and media.
Lots of american critics definitely hate Joker, it’s political, after all backlash they did against it.
That’s why it’ll do much better with the HFPA. The Golden Lion win at Venice is a sign that it’ll do well among them.
It is the critics groups phase, Joker and Phoenix was never expected to register too prominently here but could definitely pick up steam once the big ones start announcing (Golden Globe, SAG, Critics Choice).
No 1917?
Predictions:
Picture: Marriage Story (alt. The Irishman)
Director: Bong Joon Ho (alt. Quentin Tarantino)
Screenplay: Marriage Story (alt. The Irishman)
Actor: Adam Driver (alt. Antonio Banderas or Adam Sandler)
Actress: Awkwafina (alt. Scarlett Johansson)
Supp Actor: Joe Pesci or Al Pacino (alt. Willem Dafoe)
Supp Actress: Zhao Shuzhen (alt. Laura Dern)
Foreign Film: Parasite (alt. Portrait of a Lady on Fire)
Non-Fiction Film: American Factory (alt. Apollo 11)
Animated Film: How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (alt. I Lost My Body)
Cinematographer: Roger Deakins, 1917 (alt. The Lighthouse)
First Film: Queen & Slim (alt. Booksmart)
Predictions:
Picture: Parasite
Director: Scorcese
Actor: Sandler
Actress: Scarlett Johansson (for both Marriage Story and Jojo Rabbit a la Pitt for Tree of Life and Moneyball)
Supporting Actor: Pitt
Supporting Actress: Robbie (for both Bombshell and OUATIH)
Screenplay: Marriage Story
I don’t think we see Little Women or Gerwig but I could absolutely see Marriage Story win and Bong or Scorcese win.
Seeing Lupita win would be great. Best Director is going to Bong Joon-Ho
This article is absolutely fantastic :DDDDD