Greetings, Oscarwatchers. The time has come for Ye Aulde No Guts, No Glory. You know the rules. Three choices. And they have to be WILD choices, not like Marriage Story AND Little Women are going to be nominated for Drama (because they probably are). It is indeed a wide open race and the Globes are going to bring that hammer down and start slamming many doors shut. We could call them Doors Wide Shut.
My Globe predictions have two No Guts, No Glory picks – Wesley Snipes and Da’Vine Joy Randolph in the supporting categories – it’s a Cinemagical Reality.
But … I’ll do three more.
So, here are my three.
1) Matt Damon is nominated for Best Actor for Ford v Ferrari
2) James Mangold is nominated for Best Director for Ford v Ferrari
3) Shia LaBeouf is nominated for Honey Boy
The Two Popes got in Drama. HAHAHAHA
Bale and Pryce both got in. OMG
One more hour.
Just 13 minutes apparently. Or I’m misinformed.
Dunno. It’s what they said on their official Twitter account.
Joker get nominated picture, director, actor and surprise fourth nomination
Olivia Wilde gets a Best Director nod for Booksmart
NGNG
The Irishman without nods for Best Picture and Director
Almodovar getting Best Director
Jonathan Pryce for The Two Popes
Penélope Cruz for Pain and Glory
Crazy she hasn’t won a golden globe at this point! Her performance was subtle but warm, heartfelt and effective. She deserves it!
I was going to fix the contest picks but they are closed so I would put my ultimate guesses. I am going to pick only FIVE and no runner up in case there are six in some category.
Picture Drama
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Uncut Gems
Actor Drama
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems
Actress Drama
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Lupita N’yongo, Us
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Reneé Zellweger, Judy
Comedy/Musical
Cats
Jojo Rabbit
Knives Out
Once upon a time in Hollywood
Rocketman
Actor Comedy / Musical
Leonardo di Caprio, Once upon a time in Hollywood
Daniel Craig, Knives Out
Roman Griffin Davis, Jojo Rabbit
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite is my name
(note: I would add Zachary Levi for Shazam, but he has not been campaigning as I am aware of).
Actress Comedy / Musical
Ana de Armas, Knives Out
Akwafina, The Farewell
Beanie Feldstein, Booksmart
Emma Thompson, Late Night
Constance Wu, Hustlers
(I think most people have the same five)
Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks, A beautiful day in the neighborhood
Tracy Letts, Ford v Ferrari
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once upon a Time in Hollywood
Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Margot Robbie, Once upon a time in Hollywood/Bombshell
Zhao Shuzen, The Farewell
(I was really tempted of getting Cruz for Bates or Shuzen, as she scored the Satellite nom)
Director
Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari
Sam Mendes, 1917
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once upon a time in Hollywood
Screenplay
The Farewell
Marriage Story
The Irishman
Once upon a time in Hollywood
Parasite
Animated Feature
Frozen II
How to train your dragon: The Hidden World
I lost my body
Klaus
Toy Story 4
Foreign Language
Atlantics
Les Miserables
Pain and Glory
Parasite
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Score
1917
Joker
Marriage Story
Parasite
Us
Song
Cats
Frozen II
The Lion King
Rocketman
Toy Story 4
Cool. Similar picks. i was going to add Adam Sandler for Uncut Gems in Drama, but after watching The Irishman for the second time, there’s no way they won’t nominate De Niro. And I just have the gut feeling Joker will be there in Best Drama so left Uncut Gems out completely. Though you could be right. Might even creep into the director line up.
Was also tempted to put Letts in for supporting actor but went with my NGNG pick of Sterling K. Brown for Waves.
Also was tempted to put Cruz in for supporting actress, though I selected Bates in the end.
And I really thought about Cats. I think it could happen but didn’t go there. Meow.
yesterday someone reported that it seems that Cats went excellently well on the HFPA’s screenings. I am betting Picture and Song, but I would not be shocked to see some performer or even Tom Hooper nominated, as well.
Also, at this right moment, if I was going to bet on the Oscar winners in the big 8…
Picture – The Irishman
Director – Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Actress – Reneé Zellweger, Judy
Actor – Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Supporting Actress – Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Supporting Actor – Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Original Screenplay – Marriage Story
Adapted Screenplay – The Irishman
but really narrow margins in every race but Supporting Actress. Dern seems locked.
Adele Haenel – Portrait of a Lady on Fire for Best Actress
The Lighthouse for Best Picture
Cate Blanchett Best Actress comedy/musical
or
Wesley Snipes in Best Supporting Actor
Frances Conroy for Best Supporting Actress
Robert Pattinson for Best Actor
Ray Liotta for Best Supporting Actor
1.) Pedro Almodovar in Director
2.) Penelope Cruz in Supporting Actress for Pain and Glory
3.) Margot Robbie in Supporting Actress for OUATIH
Octavia Spencer in Supp Actress for ‘Luce’
Toni Colette in Supp Actress for Knives Out
Alan Alda in Supp Actor for Marriage Story
I always get a laugh when posters out stuff that in NGNG that actually isn’t
Mine is Portrait of a Lady on Fire in major categories including actress
Franciosi in best actress
Not so much off topic… given what happened in LAFCA…
If Parasite wins Best Picture at the Oscar, do you think we are going to see Pain and Glory, Les Miserables, Atlantics or any other International film contender upset Parasite at that category? I personally do not think so, I think that if Parasite wins Picture, it also wins International (of course not the other way around). I still think that given Parasite’s strenght, whoever loved Pain and Glory is merely going to vote for Banderas. Atlantics may get a cinematography nom (loved the film, and the performance of its female lead, Mame Bineta Sane, who probably will finish in my fave top 10 female lead performances of the year).
By the way, I just checked out that my top 10 film of the year, already features a quintet of non english speaking films: Pain and Glory, Parasite, Atlantics, I lost my body and Shadow (which has been embarrassangly underseen and underaprecciated, it is another great job by master Zhang Yimou). A solid quintet…
Shadow is a great film. It has been in my Top 10 since I saw it this summer.
Parasite is not winning BP at the Oscars, Jesus.
The Irishman is.
/hug
I think so, but I am unsure
If “Parasite” had the hype that is going to win BP, as Roma did last year, under the preferential ballot, is there another movie you want to put in 2 or 3 while put “Parasite” more like in 5 or 6? That is what happened in last year result.
As Sasha always reminds us, there is a reason why foreign language film is difficult to win BP as long as the Best international feature category exist, it is very unlikely , especially under recent voting trend to spread the wealth, to award “Parasite” in both category, but I definitely see its director to win Best director, In that case I Think Irishman will have the member’s passion and urge to put on top 2 of everyone ballot, if you put OUTIH in this picture, how will everyone put their ranking for those 3 movies? Do Not Forget the preferential ballot and this is definitely a split year with tons of heavy-weight contenders
only there is the chance, and trust me, it does exist, that they may think that it is high time, in this time of Netflix and superheroes, that a Foreign Film wins it.
And it would not be the first time that a film from a non english speaking country wins Best Picture. An italian and a french film already won it: The Last Emperor and The Artist. It would be just the first film from a non english speaking country, shot mostly in another language, to win it. Even Dances with Wolves featured many, many minutes of its running time in a native american language. So it would not be THAT groundbreaking, it would just need to be the next step. Specially if they love two foreign language films, they could – theoretically – give Parasite Picture, Director, Original Screenplay and then ANOTHER film, International.
It does not make any sense that one film wins in international feature While the other foreign picture wins BP.
The Artist is a silent movie and The Last Emperor is an English-speaking movie, both of them will not be eligible for international feature back then. Dance with wolves does not qualified either, unless you think native American speaks foreign language which is not the case back then
1. Shia La Beouf, Supporting Actor, Honey Boy
2. Edward Norton, Best Actor, Motherless Brooklyn (also screenplay and Best Drama)
3. Emilia Clarke, Actress in a Comedy, Last Christmas
I repeat it (and in some case, with reasoning of why)
Pain and Glory nominated like in the Satellites (both share some members), so International, Actor Drama, Supporting Actress, Director and Screenplay. Maybe Score, too.
I lost my body, Weathering with you AND Klaus, all three make the cut for Animated
Taylor Swift nominated for Cats
SUPERMEGA NGNG: Anna Paquin nominated for The Irishman in Supporting Actress.
FILM
Noah Jupe for Supporting Actor
Antigone (Canada) for Foreign Language Film (just trying to give it some hometown support–it’s a devastating film)
Lulu Wang for Director
TV
D’Arcy Carden for Supporting Actress, The Good Place
Dear White People for Comedy Series
Constance Wu for Actress, Comedy, Fresh Off the Boat
US is up for best drama
Sasha Stone is happy for Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach getting nominations in both Best Screenplay and Best Director
okay put down the crack pipe
🙂
1. Scorsese or Tarantino misses Best Director because they couldn’t possibly have been the best this year!
2. No De Niro!
3. Constance Wu misses because she got a lot of bad publicity for getting her show canceled!
Patting myself on the back for getting two of these right!
So, I just realized these are announced in, like, 8 hours or so… Pretty surreal. I might’ve planned things differently and watched the live stream, had I looked it up sooner (the announcement time), but, since I didn’t, I should be fast asleep by then (a lot sooner than that, in fact), so good luck to everyone and see you on the other side of the inevitable statsquake! And fingers crossed for The Farewell and 1917 to do as well as possible… 🙂
I’ve set an alarm. I will only be alseep a couple of hours before they are announced. Dedication 😉 Fingers and toes crosse for The Farewell!
Robert Pattinson…best actor, The Lighthouse
Shia LeBouef…best actor, The Peanut Butter Falcon
Andrew Scott…best supporting actor, 1917 and Fleabag
Anna Paquin…best supporting actress, The Irishman
1) The Good Place gets 5 nominations.
The magic number is 5. Five nominees is the absolute minimum they must receive. The show, Danson, KB, Harper or Jacinto and Carden or Jamil. But today we saw in spades that streaming services are the bane and the mortal enemy of broadcast network TV. It’s Netflix, after all, that spread the infestation that is Schitt’s Creek as well as Russian Doll across the awards landscape. A contagion that has been hard to get rid of. Hulu? Yeah, you begat the final season of Veronica Mars, but you also dropped PEN15 onto an unsuspecting public. And Amazon; you’re giving us The Expanse next Friday and for season 5, but you also share blame for Mrs. Maisel and Fleabag.
One step forward, three back.
1. Mary Kay Place in for Drama Actress
2. Mangold in for Best Director
3. Parasite in for Score
1. Avengers: Endgame gets score
2. Shia LeBouf for honey boy (which I think is actually in my goldderby predictions)
3. Irishman AND Marriage Story both get 7 nominations
NGNG:
1. The Two Popes gets in Drama over Marriage Story and Pryce gets in Lead Actor Drama.
2. Almodóvar for Director.
3. Joker for Screenplay.
Jo jo rabbit gets shutout as it should.
Bruce Dern gets a best supporting actor nomination for Mustang
Honeyland gets nominated for both best foreign film and best documentary.
Best Picture – Drama: Ad Astra
Best Actress – Drama: Jodie Turner-Smith – Queen & Slim
Best Supporting Actor: Sterling K. Brown – Waves
NGNG:
1. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood for Best Picture
2. Elisabeth Moss for Best Supporting Actress for US
3. Penélope Cruz for Best Supporting Actress for Pain & Glory
Gosh, I hope your number 3 is correct. I loved Cruz in Pain & Glory!
I have been following Cruz’s career since she started as muse of his ex, in the music video of his ex’s band, “Mecano”… she has grown to be an excellent actress and she nails the performance in P&G. I would not give her an Oscar nomination over Elizabeth Moss (Us) or Julie Hagerty (Marriage Story), but I really wouldn’t be angry if she got it, as she is good enough. Cruz, in my book, should have TWO Oscars… the one she has, and another as Lead for 1998’s “La Niña de tus Ojos”, playing a spanish songs singer/actress shooting a film in Germany during the 30s, under the nazi regime (it is a fun film that was a huge hit in Spain… and she is excellent and so fun, in it… better than the eventual Oscar winner, Gwyneth Palthrow)
Well we can agree on Cruz and Hagerty (I thought she was brilliant in MS).
I’ve followed Cruz for a long time too. Not as far back as you. But far enough. She makes fantastic choices. Or perhaps they choose her…
My NGNG: There are almost no surprising nominations this time… 🙂
haha! 🙂
Kind of ashamed that I was too chicken to leave out the “almost”… 🙂 (But it’s still easily a valid NGNG.)
Still funny though.
Good one. I made me laugh out loud. thanks for that.
Sterling K. Brown – Supporting Actor (Waves)
Annette Bening – Supporting Actress (The Report)
Shia LaBeouf – Best Actor Musical/Comedy (The Peanut Butter Falcon)
All I have actually predicted…
Cynthia Erivo, Lupita, and Alfre Woodward ALL 3 get nominated for Best Dramatic Actress and Scarlett only gets a supporting nomination and gets a push there for her Oscar instead of Laura Dern.
Avengers for Best Score
Richard Jewell gets three or more nominations.
Ford v Ferrari gets the most nominations
Cho Yeo-jeong Supporting for Parasite
Jillian Bell Comedy Actress (not super gutsy lol)
Taylor Swift for Cats lol
NGNG:
Marriage Story misses drama film and screenplay
Jojo Rabbit gets the most nominations: picture, director, screenplay, comedy actor, two supporting actresses and score
The Irishman gets no nominations for supporting actor, yet Cats double dips
Wisful predictions:
Portrait of a Lady on Fire gets a screenplay nomination
Honor Swinton Byrne gets an actress nomination
A Hidden Life gets the most nominations with 6
“The Irishman gets no nominations for supporting actor, yet Cats double dips”
That would probably be the most hilarious thing in the world.
Queen & slim for screenplay
Endgame BP
Uncut gems for BP/bd/actor/screenplay.
“Endgame BP”
Now THAT is one bold prediction.
Roman Griffin Davis is nominated for Best Actor in Comedy
Julia Butters nominated for OUATIH
Us is nominated for Best Pic
There’s tea they will nominate Shia LaBeouf but I don’t know where to put him: Comedy Actor or Supporting.
I’ve got him for supporting playing the odds a bit
Jessie Buckley (Wild Rose)
Brad Pitt (Ad Astra)
Robert Downey Jr. (Endgame)
Wild Rose has popped up on a number of awards prediction lists. Guess it’s high time I gave it a look.
A hidden little gem.
NGNG:
Frozen II snubbed for best animated film (sadly)
Knives Out for best screenplay
Aladdin’s Speechless for best original song
Shia LaBeouf for sure, I was so impressed!
Parasite or Waves for score
Penelope Cruz
Penelope Cruz was so beautiful in Pain & Glory!
But then she has always been beautiful.
This is true. I was more referring to her performance.
That too. She’s always been a brilliant actress.
There was something so simple and pure about her role in Pain & Glory. I have thought about the possibility of her being nominated along the way, but none to be seen so far…
I suppose it’s because she is overshadowed by Banderas. She’s been good for so many years that she doesn’t surprise anyone with her performances. That’s not the case with Banderas because he has never got anything close to this. It’s career best and then some. It’s similar effect to Cruz for Almodovar.
NGNG:
The Two Popes is nominated for Drama BP, BD, screenplay and Lead and Supporting Actor.
Martin Scorsese misses BD (some people were claiming they didn’t like his film and might do what the Satelite did)
Both Gerwig AND Baumbach are nominated for BD.
The first one is exactly my predictions. It will be eligible for 5 categories and getting a nom at all 5 (or at least 4, maybe except Director)
Have you? I did no look before I posted. sorry. Actually, I don’t think my last prediction is that unlikely. I think they are close to be nominated it’s not that unlikely they both get in for GG BD.
Lol no need to say sorry. I am not bothered by the fact that you had the same thought. I actually feel flattered!
Don’t be too flattered because we might be way off.
But then who misses? Mendes? Bong?
Either one of those could miss. People are overestimating 1917 and Bong is not as popular as some people think. Bong is not Ang Lee or Alfonso Cuaron.
Julie Hagerty and Laura Dern
Cats lands
sandler /one of the popes gets in .
“one of the popes gets in ”
The two popes will get in (no pun intended)
Robbie, Kidman and Theron get nominated for Bombshell.
1. Adam Sandler gets in over Jonathan Pryce (but neither will be nominated at the Oscars)
2. Jojo Rabbit only gets in for Best Film (Comedy/Musical) and Best Screenplay.
3. Since Uncut Gems is going into the Drama field, Himesh Patel gets in Comedy/Musical Actor for Yesterday.
What time are the noms exactly?
Starts announcing 5 am (PST) or 8 am (EST)
Precisely at 8:04 am eastern and then a break, then live on nbc at 8:38 am
what happens before break and what happens after break ?
Sorry got this too late and they changed things this year they did the second half of the nominees at 8:15 AM. First half at 8:04
Cats gets shut out
Us gets a Best Pic nom
Jennifer Hudson gets a supp nom (then obvi Cats isn’t shut out)
1. Angelina Jolie AND Charlize Theron nominated for Actress C/M
2. Gugu Mbatha-Raw nominated for Supporting Actress
3. Aaron Taylor-Johnson nominated for Actor-Drama
So in my actual predictions I gave little women getting none, is that NGNG enough?
Cats leads (or ties for the lead of) nominations with 5
If not Cats I’ll go The Laundromat gets a bunch (5ish)
“So in my actual predictions I gave little women getting none, is that NGNG enough?”
Why wouldn’t it be?
I dunno I feel like I have a stronger view of what NGNG means than some – I see it as predict something that nobody would even consider could happen and then be able to gloat that you were the only person who predicted it (but you actually didn’t in your real predictions because it probably wouldn’t happen).
Wow – yeah, that’s definitely very narrow! For me it’s just something that’s very unlikely to happen (for nominations, I guess something like 10-15% is already reasonable, in my view, unless the fight for the fifth spot in the category in question is unusually open – and I think Little Women getting nothing at all is in that range, probably lower).
Yeah I guess that is fair. Also I just checked and I actually do still have Ronan in but that’s the only thing I have it in for, which means this is a bit more extreme than my predictions here which is good.
I mean, I don’t even think it’s incorrect to both predict something and have it be a valid NGNG. Sometimes (if we’re brave/adventurous enough, which I rarely am) we predict things most other people would think were highly unlikely to happen (or even things WE think are highly unlikely to happen, but choose to predict anyway, for whatever reason; I guess my predicting The Favourite officially last year was something like that) – and that’s what I think should decide NGNG status. The majority opinion. Something like Gold Derby user odds, basically. (Which you could even use to calculate the odds for your LW zero nods NGNG. I imagine they’d be quite long…) With some standard threshold or something.
Will Smith for Aladdin Lead actor in a comedy
Chris Evans in supporting Actor for Knives out
Clint Eastwood for Director
I have also Naomi Scott for Aladdin in Comedy/Musical
Todd Phillips for Best Director for Joker.
NGNG
Rian Johnson Director
Jamie Lee Curtis Supporting Actress,
so Knives Out got 6 Nominations and lead the field with Marriage Story and Irishman
I’ll go with Elsa for Best Actress for Frozen 2 because I think she really dug deeper this time than in the first one. I mean, it was some real Sandy Meisner method stuff she was doing. Brava!
1) Francesca Hayward gets nom for Cats
2) EDIT: Tom Hanks out of supporting actor.
3) Two Popes getting a lot of love, getting in Best Film Drama, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Film Screenplay
The first two are actually very conservative predictions!
There was a strong belief that Cats was going to be a disaster. A lot of bad talk and people discrediting it by the trailers.
There was a strong belief that Cats was going to be a disaster. A lot of bad talk and people discrediting it by the trailers.
And also, Francesca Hayward is like #9 on Goldderby.
I actually think all 3 are very likely and I’m sure you’ll find people around here that have each individually at least in their regular predictions.
I’ve seen a number of predictions that include Cats in C/M
Lol you’re right. Cats is #7 on goldderby, so it’s not THAT bold. I will replace for another bold prediction: Tom Hanks out of supporting actor.
NGNG:
1) Alan Alda sneaks into Supporting Actor
2) Dolemite is My Name gets in Screenplay
3) Anna Paquin makes Supporting Actress
If Anna Paquin gets in for saying 7 WORDS, the world will slip off its axis and we will all go hurtling into the abyss.
It would not be the end of the world. It’s not about quantity, rather quality.
Would too. I’ve discussed this at length with Satan and he clearly sees this as a dealbreaker.
Are you sure “Satan” isn’t just your dog?
It drove me crazy when people were complaining about how she has “6 words” everywhere. It’s clearly seven!
Accuracy counts a lot in this life.
Why?
-Anna Paquin. The Irishman-
1) Tom Hooper for Directing
2) Cats gets 2 or more acting nominations
3) Joe Pesci misses Supporting Actor
I think your NGNG predictions are pretty possible, Sasha!
Oh hell, I’ll go with:
Helen Mirren, Actress, Drama, Good Liar
Fernando Meirelles, Director, Two Popes
Parasite, Best Score
I actually just put Mirren in my official predictions, that would be such a Globes thing to do!
Mary Kay Place is nominated for Best actress drama
I’d love it. The “Who?” reactions on Twitter got me peeved
1. Isabelle Huppert–Frankie– Actress Drama
2. Penelope Cruz–Pain and Glory–Supporting Actress
3. Shia LeBoeuf–Honey Boy–Supporting Actor
1) Penélope Cruz is nominated for Supporting Actress
2) Marriage Story gets 4+ acting nominations
3) Kristen Stewart for Seberg