The SAG nominations are tomorrow. We generally look at the one-two punch of SAG and Globes to form our predictions for the Oscar race and indeed, these are the only two MAJOR acting nominations that will be unveiled, both for nominations and for winners, before Oscar ballots are due.
But last year A Star is Born led the nominations and won exactly zero acting Oscars. So it’s important to keep that in mind.
I will be watching for what gets in outside of the usual suspects. Like does 1917, Ford v Ferrari or Parasite break into the acting categories? Will SAG nom com continue their streak of inclusive films?
We expect our frontrunners all to be in:
Renee Zellweger, Judy
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Then, one last slot that, at least right now, appears to be down to Lupita Nyong’o for Us versus Cynthia Erivo in Harriet. Two strong leading performances in two movies that have made a lot of money. Maybe both will get in and one of the above will be bumped. Maybe there will be a different name that springs fourth, like Awkwafina in The Farewell or Ana De Armas in Knives Out/
In Best Actor, we’ll start with the frontrunners:
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite is My Name
And then a fifth slot that could to: Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory, Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes, Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari — there are a lot of possibilities.
Supporting Actress should be something like:
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
And then a hell of a fifth slot – hoping for Da’Vine Joy Randolph for Dolemite is My Name, but could be Florence Pugh for Little Women or Nicole Kidman, even, for Bombshell, Kathy Bates for Richard Jewell or Shuzhen Zhao, The Farewell.
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Tom Hanks, Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Then a fifth slot that I would honor Wesley Snipes from Dolemite is My Name, but probably will be Anthony Hopkins from The Two Popes, may be Tracy Letts from Ford v Ferrari, but also could be Sam Rockwell from Richard Jewell, Jamie Foxx from Just Mercy.
Finally, the most important, arguably–Ensemble Cast.
To me it seems like these will be in:
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Then I could see it going with: Knives Out, Ford v Ferrari, Dolemite is My Name, Parasite, Bombshell or Jojo Rabbit. There are so many possibilities. It will be exciting to see where it lands.
Here is the contest: