Back when there were five Oscar nominees for Best Picture, it was rare that any of them went home empty-handed. Here is how it went in recent history. Let’s go back 20 years prior to the expanded ballot:
2008 — 4/5 (Frost/Nixon, no wins)
2007 — 5/5
2006 — 5/5
2005 — 3/5 (Munich, Good Night and Good Luck)
2004 — 5/5
2003 — 4/5 (Seabiscuit)
2002 — 4/5 (Gangs of New York)
2001 — 4/5 (In the Bedroom)
2000 — 4/5 (Chocolat)
1999 — 2/5 (The Green Mile, The Sixth Sense, The Insider)
1998 — 4/5 (The Thin Red Line)
1997 — 5/5
1996 — 4/5 (Secrets and Lies)
1995 — 5/5
1994 — 2/5 (Four Weddings and a Funeral, Quiz Show, The Shawshank Redemption)
1993 — 4/5 (In the Name of the Father)
1992 — 4/5 (A Few Good Men)
1991 — 4/5 (Prince of Tides)
In most of these years, the films that won Best Picture won a bunch of other Oscars too, and one in particular:
2008 – Slumdog Millionaire 8/10 (Picture, Director, Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Score, Song, Sound)
2007 – No Country for Old Men 4/8 (Picture, Director, Screenplay, Supporting Actor)
2006 – The Departed 4/5 (Picture, Director, Screenplay, Editing)
2005 – Crash 3/6 (Picture, Screenplay, Editing)
2004 – Million Dollar Baby 4/7 (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor)
2003 – Return of the King 11/11 – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Editing, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup, Score, Song, Sound, Sound, Visual Effects
2002 – Chicago 6/13 – Picture, Supporting Actress, Production Design, Costumes, Editing, Sound
2001 – A Beautiful Mind 4/8 – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Supporting Actress
2000 – Gladiator 5/12 – Picture, Actor, Costume, Sound, Visual Effects
1999 – American Beauty – 5/8 Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor, Cinematography
1998 – Shakespeare in Love – 7/13 – Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Screenplay, Production Design, Costumes, Score
1997 – Titanic 11/14 – Picture, Director, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, Sound, Editing, Sound Effects Editing, Visual Effects, Song, Score
1996 – The English Patient 9/12 – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Sound, Editing, Score
1995 – Braveheart 5/10 – Picture, Director, Cinematography, Sound Effects Editing, Makeup
1994 – Forrest Gump 6/13 – Picture, Director, Actor, Screenplay, Editing, Visual Effects
1993 – Schindler’s List 7/12 – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design
1992 – Unforgiven – 4/9 – Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Editing
1991 – Silence of the Lambs -5/7 – Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Screenplay
So what can we learn from looking back to the time before the preferential ballot? Well, for the most part, Best Picture seemed to be more aligned with the technical awards than it is now. Sure, there were still years like the Crash year where a film won just 3 Oscars, but Costumes, for instance, was more likely to go along with a Best Picture nominee.
Now, as ever, the strongest Oscar win corresponding with Best Picture is Screenplay. And now the techs tend to go with Best Director more than they do Picture. That has everything to do with how the preferential ballot works.
In the preferential ballot era, it looks like this:
2009 – The Hurt Locker 6/9 (Picture, Director, Screenplay, Sound, Sound Editing, Editing)
2010 – The King’s Speech 4/12 (Picture, Director, Actor, Screenplay)
2011 – The Artist 5/10 (Best Picture, Director, Best Actor, Costume, Score)
2012 – Argo 3/7 (Picture, Screenplay, Editing)
2013 – 12 Years a Slave 3/9 (Picture, Screenplay, Supporting Actress)
2014 – Birdman 4/9 (Picture, Director, Screenplay, Cinematography)
2015 – Spotlight 2/6 (Picture, Screenplay)
2016 – Moonlight 3/8 (Picture, Screenplay, Supporting Actor)
2017 – The Shape of Water 4/13 (Picture, Director, Score, Production Design)
2018 – Green Book 3/5 (Picture, Screenplay, Supporting Actor)
Also, because there are more Best Picture contenders, voters seem inclined to spread the wealth, to give at one Oscar to more of those movies.
How the Oscar wins are dispersed among the Best Picture nominees and other films now looks like this:
2009 – 6/10
The Hurt Locker – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Sound, Sound Editing, Editing
The Blind Side – Best Actress
Inglourious Basterds – Supporting Actor
Precious – Supporting Actress, Screenplay
Avatar – Cinematography, Production Design, Visual Effects
Up – Animated Feature, Score
Films that weren’t Best Picture nominees that won Oscars
Crazy Heart – Best Actor, Best Song
The Young Victoria – Costume
Star Trek – Makeup
Best Picture contenders that did not win Oscars – 4/10
Up in the Air
District 9
An Education
A Serious Man
2010 – 6/10
The King’s Speech – Picture, Director, Actor, Screenplay
The Social Network – Screenplay, Editing, Score
Black Swan – Best Actress
The Fighter – Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress
Inception – Cinematography, Sound, Sound Editing, Visual Effects
Toy Story 3 – Animated Feature, Song
Films that weren’t Best Picture nominees that won Oscars
The Wolf Man – Makeup
Alice in Wonderland – Costumes, Production Design
Best Picture contenders that did not win Oscars – 4/10
127 Hours
The Kids Are All Right
Winter’s Bone
True Grit
2011 – 5/9
The Artist – Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Costume, Score
Hugo – Cinematography, Production Design, Sound, Sound Editing, Visual Effects
Midnight in Paris – Screenplay
The Descendants – Screenplay
The Help – Supporting Actress
Films that weren’t Best Picture nominees that won Oscars
The Iron Lady – Best Actress, Makeup
Beginners – Supporting Actor
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – Editing
Best Picture contenders that did not win Oscars – 4/9
Tree of Life
Extremely Loud, Incredibly Close
War Horse
2012 – 7/9
Argo – Picture, Screenplay, Editing
Life of Pi – Director, Cinematography, Score, Visual Effects
Lincoln – Actor, Production Design
Silver Linings Playbook – Best Actress,
Django Unchained – Supporting Actor, Screenplay
Les Mis – Supporting Actress, Makeup, Sound
Amour – Foreign Language
Films that weren’t Best Picture nominees that won Oscars
Anna Karenina – Costumes
Skyfall – Song, Sound Editing
Best Picture contenders that did not win Oscars – 2/9
Zero Dark Thirty
Beasts of the Southern Wild
2013 – 4/9
12 Years a Slave – Picture, Screenplay, Supporting Actress
Gravity – Director, Cinematography, Editing, Sound, Sound Editing, Visual Effects
Dallas Buyers Club – Actor, Supporting Actor, Makeup
Her – Screenplay
Films that weren’t Best Picture nominees that won Oscars
Blue Jasmine – Best Actress
Great Gatsby – Production Design, Costume
Best Picture contenders that did not win Oscars – 5/9
Wolf of Wall Street
Philomena
Captain Phillips
Nebraska
American Hustle
2014 – 8/8
Birdman – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Cinematography
Grand Budapest Hotel – Production Design, Costume, Makeup, Score
The Theory of Everything – Best Actor
Whiplash – Supporting Actor, Editing, Sound
Boyhood – Supporting Actor
Imitation Game – Screenplay
Selma – Song
American Sniper – Sound Editing
Films that weren’t Best Picture nominees that won Oscars
Still Alice – Best Actress
Interstellar – Visual Effects
Best Picture contenders that did not win Oscars – 0/8
2015 – 6/8
Spotlight – Picture, Screenplay
The Revenant – Director, Best Actor, Cinematography
Mad Max – Editing, Production Design, Costume, Makeup, Sound, Sound Editing
Room – Best Actress
Bridge of Spies – Supporting Actor
The Big Short – Screenplay
Films that weren’t Best Picture Nominees that won Oscars
The Danish Girl, Supporting Actress
Spectre, Song
Hateful Eight, Score
Ex Machina, Visual Effects
Best Picture contenders that did not win Oscars – 2/8
Brooklyn
The Martian
2016 – 6/9
Moonlight – Picture, Screenplay, Supporting Actor
Manchester by the Sea – Actor, Screenplay
La La Land – Actress, Director, Cinematography, Production Design, Score, Song
Fences – Supporting Actress
Hacksaw Ridge – Editing, Sound
Arrival – Sound Editing
Films that weren’t Best Picture Nominees that won Oscars
Fantastic Beasts – Costumes
Suicide Squad – Makeup
Jungle Book – Visual Effects
Best Picture contenders that did not win Oscars – 3/9
Hidden Figures
Hell or High Water
Lion
2017 – 7/9
The Shape of Water – Picture, Director, Production Design, Score
Darkest Hour – Actor, Makeup
Three Billboards – Actress, Supporting Actor
Get Out – Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name – Screenplay
Dunkirk – Editing, Sound, Sound Editing
Phantom Thread – Costumes
Films that weren’t Best Picture nominees that won Oscars
I, Tonya – Supporting Actress
Blade Runner 2049 – Cinematography, Visual Effects
Best Picture contenders that did not win Oscars – 2/9
Lady Bird
The Post
2018 – 8/8
Green Book – Picture, Screenplay, Supporting Actor
Roma – Director, Cinematography
Bohemian Rhapsody – Best Actor, Editing, Sound, Sound Editing
The Favourite – Best Actress
BlacKkKlansman – Screenplay
Black Panther – Production Design, Costumes, Score
Vice – Makeup
A Star is Born – Song
Films that weren’t Best Picture nominees that won Oscars
If Beale Street Could Talk, Supporting Actress
First Man – Visual Effects
Best Picture contenders that did not win Oscars – 0/8
Because the preferential ballot now embraces so many favorite films, it seems to follow that the closer a film comes to winning Best Picture, the better chance that contender has of winning in other categories. As always, sometimes films that should have made the Best Picture lineup but didn’t, or maybe missed by just a few hundred votes, can find itself resurrected and win Oscars without being a Best Picture nominee, like First Man winning for Visual Effects last year, or The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo winning Best Editing in 2011.
Looking at the years prior to 2009 in light of the way the Oscars work now, we might deduce a few alternate outcomes if past Best Picture winners had been run through the preferential ballot machine:
- Titanic might not have won Best Picture. Sure, by sheer weight of its Oscar avalanche, it might have prevailed, but it had missed winning the SAG ensemble award (Full Monty did) and it failed to grab a screenplay nomination. LA Confidential or Good Will Hunting might have won instead.
- Braveheart probably would not have won, again without that all-important screenplay nomination. Best Picture might have gone to Sense and Sensibility (with its 7 nominations) or even Apollo 13 (with its 9 nominations, absent Best Director). Had the preferential ballot been in 1996 we would have seen a great test of the passion vote.
- Chicago probably would not have won Best Picture. It would have gone instead to The Pianist, I figure.
- By contrast, if the old system of ballot counting were still in use today, La La Land, The Revenant, and Gravity likely would have won in a . They wouldn’t have had to worry about the dark art of ballot redistribution.
When we consider the Oscar race now, we should remember that sweeps are generally a thing of the past, and take note that Best Director is often associated more with a slew of tech wins, while Screenplay usually remains attached to Best Picture.
So if you are thinking of Parasite winning, you would probably imagine it taking Best International Film, Best Director, maybe Screenplay, and Picture. That’s certainly a plausible scenario. But it’s also possible, in such a competitive field, that each of those awards could go to other brilliant films, leaving Best Picture up for grabs. With Quentin Tarantino, Bong Joon Ho, and Sam Mendes, we’re looking at powerful Director/Screenwriter hyphenates. With Scorsese we aren’t. Thus, it’s very likely that Picture could simply go with Screenplay to give one of those directors an Oscar (say, if it’s Tarantino or Mendes) and then Best Director goes to someone else, like Bong Joon Ho.
Remember, Best Director has only gone to an American-born director twice since 2009 – Kathryn Bigelow and Damien Chazelle. For whatever reason, in recent years, the Directors branch has chosen to award visionaries from other countries.
Three things to remember:
- The awards have a tendency to be split between more Best Picture nominees when more are on the ballot, as they are now.
- The Best Picture winner doesn’t win as many Oscars as it used to.
- Best Picture and Best Director are more likely to split now under the preferential ballot.