We’ve almost reached the end of a very long road for the Oscars 2020. Voters will have one week, starting tomorrow, to fill out their nomination ballots for each of their respective branches plus Best Picture. Each voter is given five slots to fill for their branch and everyone is given five slots for Best Picture. On January 7th, the date the ballots are due, we will also learn the five Directors Guild nominees and ten Producers Guild nominees. We’ll also be able to factor in what we know from the Golden Globe Awards, which will be held this coming Sunday. There is no time to contemplate much this year — the films in the mix have either made an impact or they haven’t.
Here are five takeaways from my perspective:
- Studios showed up. In an era when the major studios are being criticized for not creating enough original content, they have come roaring back, whether you hear anything about their efforts in entertainment coverage or not. While the studios have always made films aimed at adults, they have recently been hit and miss where the Best Picture race is concerned. This year, there are so many slam dunks from the major studios — they have pulled out all the stops and put on display a string of great titles to challenge the rise of streaming content that threatens them.
Universal alone has produced three of the year’s best films. Sam Mendes’ 1917 manages to be both intimate and expansive, telling the story of a war that killed 40 million soldiers. In following the internal arc of the main character, the real time experience of that war (and every other) becomes indelible. Universal also gave us Melina Matsoukas’ risky and daring Queen & Slim, a film with an original voice, a complex female lead, and hard-hitting subject matter; and Jordan Peele’s Us, an original horror movie that made so much money it’s the only the top ten box-office film of the year that isn’t part of a franchise. And yes, they also released Cats, which could very well represent the annual sacrifice for a frustrated film community that is normally stifled as they’re told what they can and cannot criticize. Here, they have the one-two punch of a white guy, Tom Hooper, and Taylor Swift — a woman the internet both loves and loathes all at once. It was like watching the ending of Midsommar, watching critics salivate in the freedom to finally cut loose when artists falter. I suppose there must be one every year to release that pressure.
Sony came out with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Tarantino’s best film and maybe the best film of 2019. Wildly funny, with a haunting sense of the past and a moment at the cultural crossroads depicted so beautifully, as a movie star on his way out accidentally collides with the would-be Manson murderers. Sony also has Greta Gerwig’s Little Women, which is catching a last minute wave and appears to be just the kind of thing audiences were looking for, and Marielle Heller’s A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. Both of these films, along with Once, are making good money.
Fox, which has now merged with Disney, released Ford v Ferrari — which is, along with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, one of the the most satisfying films of the year. It’s a big, beautiful studio film — the likes of which we rarely see anymore. They also produced, under their Fox Searchlight banner, Jojo Rabbit: Taika Waititi’s comically unsettling and ultimately uplifting film about the battle of freedom against fascism. These same themes are explored with much more sober tones in Terrence Malick’s A Hidden Life, in a way that only this legendary director could express.
Warner Brothers surprised everyone with the billion dollar hit, Joker, which has managed to disrupt the status quo where superhero movies are concerned and has maybe broken a spell of sorts by making something that is unquestionably disturbing and brilliant all at once. They also have Just Mercy, which has landed on President Obama’s list of his favorite films of 2019.
These impeccable films are competing with a dazzling array from Netflix, A24, STX, Neon, and Lionsgate, each of them turning out work that matches anything the big studios can do. That’s something worth noting. - Netflix has come to play. Even though Netflix had a major contender last year with Alfonso Cuaron’s Roma, they are back in big way with four of the year’s best films: Martin Scorsese’s epic The Irishman, about the lonely road of a hitman who sacrifices his relationship with his daughter for his relationship with the mob; Craig Brewer’s marvelous Dolemite Is My Name, about the spirit of entrepreneurship in the black community, depicting Rudy Ray Moore’s rise as realized by the great Eddie Murphy in a career-defining role; Fernando Meirelles’ The Two Popes, which is catching a last minute surge as more and more people see it; and Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story, which deconstructs his painful divorce.
- The internet is still the internet and there will be shitstorms. Where will they come from? What will they be about? Will the shortened season minimize them? Will the outcry about (no) women push a film into the race? If no films by women are included, how much more controversy will it create?
Why can’t the Oscars have a host? Because every joke and joker now comes under scrutiny, scanned by the collective to find one offended person or many offended people and if so, then all are offended and thus, the Academy will pay the price. Humor, at its best, is offensive. Otherwise, why bother? And that’s exactly what they’ve done at the Oscars: fear of offending one person and therefore all people has eliminated the host, either because no one can pass the test of having lived a perfect life with perfect opinions, or because the jokes might potentially offend. It’s not that no great hosts exist; it’s that none of the best candidates wants to sign up for the grief.
You really have to be Ricky Gervais, who is the Cats of awards hosts — meaning, he can offend liberally because he always does and doesn’t care. Twitter can’t touch him. They can try, as they often do, but ultimately in hiring him in the first place the Globes are basically saying, “you know you want to watch this because it will be entertaining.” Sure, we’re going to offend people and Twitter will implode, but hey. The ratings will be jamming.
But the Academy can’t hire someone like that. There are too many careers on the line. They have thousands of members and those members will be held accountable for the past behavior of members and for whatever might tumble out of the mouths of potential Oscar hosts. So here we are. Listen to Twitter or ignore Twitter — it isn’t going anywhere. Take the good with the bad and good luck figuring out which is which. One could argue is part of the reason why Little Women landed on its feet and has a real shot at a nomination. Without Twitter, it might have not gotten the same kind of advocacy. - Where will the Best Picture winner come from? Cannes, where Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Parasite launched? Venice, where Joker won the Golden Lion? Telluride, where Marriage Story and Ford v Ferrari launched? Toronto, where Knives Out launched and where Jojo Rabbit won the People’s Choice Award? New York, where The Irishman premiered? Or none of the above — perhaps a late breaking film like 1917?
- History will be made if Parasite wins Best Picture, as it will be the first Foreign Language film to win in both the International Film Category and the Best Picture category. If The Irishman wins, that will be the first win for Netflix, and proof positive that the game has completely changed. If 1917 wins, it will be the first time a film that went unseen during festival season won Best Picture since 2004’s Million Dollar Baby.
Can you think of any other major factors in play this year? No matter which way we choose to look at things, it all starts tomorrow. Hear the engines revving? Strap in.
I’m still really hoping we have a host at the Oscars this year. If so, how close to the date of the ceremony is one usually announced?
Must you continue to bring up that host fiasco from last year, as if chastising hateful comments is somehow a bad thing? Ricky Gervais is offensive, yes. Hart’s comments were hateful. There is a difference. It was right to call them out. If he had the sense to think and look within himself before commenting in ways to try and brush it off as nothing, he would have been able to offer up an apology. Or come to some realization about why his words affected people. He actually has just recently said he handled the situation inappropriately and immaturely. It’s a shame you take this stance in this piece Sasha.
Now as for the race: I am wondering how many voters will actually be waiting until the Globes to cast their ballots. I think many folk get a jump on it as soon as they have the chance, which means the Globes would not influence them and we will be flying even more blind than anticipated. Of course, with the shortened season it is very possible people will wait longer than usual to fill out the ballots because they still need to catch up on the films. A truly wild year.
Do we think that the Twitter bubble can greatly affect a film’s chances either for a BP nomination or knock it out of contention?
I tried the twitter thing for a bit but I don’t even use it anymore.
I am genuinely curious to see what will happen in BP this season, it still feels to be very much up in the air. Wise money is on Once Upon a Time in Hollywood that seems to have ticked all boxes except release date (no film with a release date outside the October-December frame has won BP since The Hurt Locker) but at the same time I can’t help but think that 1917 could be much stronger than we give it credit for.
It is easy to underestimate due to lack of proper precursor-love but once we factor in how late it started screening (end of November), there is no way of knowing if it didn’t get those crucial precursor nods due to lack of support or lack of time. I guess if it wins big on Sunday at the Globes and / or makes a big splash (writing + acting) on Bafta Nominations Morning next week, that may just foreshadow a stronger than expected Oscar showing.
Meanwhile we could be just looking at a historic win delivered by one of the usual suspects : could The Irishman be the first BP win for a streamer OR maybe Parasite will go all the way and become the first foreign language film to win BP?
Possibilities, possibilities.
My current thoughts are similar. I think OUATIH is in the driver’s seat at the moment. I think that The Irishman could be somewhat overestimated. I think Parasite’s success hinges on how it does at SAG/BAFTA/PGA/DGA Guild results. Jojo might be in there somewhere, but I’m not feeling it. And 1917 does feel like the one big contender left that could surprise and surpass some of the stronger contenders that we think are unmovable. It could be the late-surger, yet still come up short a la The Revenant, etc.
I wonder about 1917 and also Ford v. Ferrari. The latter is such a traditional Hollywood movie that probably played really well at Holiday Parties.
It’s gonna end up being Jojo Rabbit all along, isn’t it?
Please, no!
That would be quite the surprise. The film has a disappointing critical consensus and utterly unspectacular Box Office so while nominations here and there can definitely happen, winning anything above the line would be shocking to me. And I liked the film a lot but stats-wise it doesn’t look like a winner at all. Nominee ? Sure. Winner ? Long shot.
Nope…
The GG’s winners and PGA/DGA noms will either bring some clarity or just confuse things more. I think this year will be the hardest to predict so far. It will be a HUGE move for a Netflix production to win BP in the end. And there’s always Parasite to make a first. I just don’t think that will happen with the BIF category. It’s like how animated films have no chance of even a BP nom let alone a win with their own category. It’s great foreign films are getting in! I love them.
Can’t be harder than last year or the year before that… Like, it’s literally almost impossible. It’s hard to envision weirder/less clear combinations of precursor results than we got those times. 🙂
It all depends if the Academy are ready to make a first and, particuarly, let the steaming services win the BP prize.
Ah, I didn’t realize you’d already read my reply to Sontag Twist. 🙂 I didn’t mean to be repetitive…
All good 🙂
Having seen it yesterday, I don’t think Netflix is winning BP for THIS movie (The Irishman). It decidedly has a downer ending and that’s simply not the case (depending on what one thinks of Birdman – but what is actually on screen supports my take) for any BP winner since The Hurt Locker.
I think Marriage Story has a better chance at winning than The Irishman.
Well, I definitely wouldn’t go that far, with Globe directing and SAG ensemble snubs… 🙂 But, in a vacuum, only based on seeing the movies themselves, I would agree with that statement.
It’s so comfortable inside the vacuum 😉 The Globe Director snub doesn’t matter so much. Something Gotta Give sometimes. Todd Phillips just got in there. I don’t know if that will translate to the DGA and Oscars. I mean, it’s a brilliant film, so I could be wrong. We will see…
🙂
I’m predicting Phillips for the DGA nod. Oscar is a lot less clear.
I’ll swap out Phillips for Baumbach, otherwise the other big 4 I’ll keep in (though would like to put in Lulu Wang for The Farewell).
I’d be SO happy if Baumbach made it in!… Lulu – I would DIE… 🙂 (Of happiness, obviously.)
I KNOW, right! 🙂
The SAG Snub is strange though, yes. TSOW missed the ensemble. Though it had director at GG and won…
I’m predicting MS to win at the GG for Drama, Screenplay, Actress and Supporting Actress. The director noms may come…
Yes, the SAG snub in itself isn’t a massive problem, but when big stats-relevant snubs start accumulating, that means a movie isn’t winning the big Oscar trophy, 95% of the time or more. Corroborating evidence… 🙂
I hear you! I’m just hoping for that 5% 🙂
It’s definitely not dead, indeed…
I enjoyed reading this. The State of the Race is always helpful especially as we now begin the steep climb through the next leg of this particular journey. I hope for some genuine surprises if nothing else to see how folks next interpret which film now has the heat to go all the way. I still think it is Tarantino’s but would be happier if it wasn’t. I don’t think Once Upon A Time in Hollywood or The Irishman are anywhere near the best work of their directors but when did that matter for AMPAS? I care more about the acting races and individuals than I do the top 2 categories. I rarely line up with them anyway but it’s fascinating to watch the process unfold each season.
“I don’t think Once Upon A Time in Hollywood or The Irishman are anywhere
near the best work of their directors but when did that matter for
AMPAS?”
Saw The Irishman yesterday so now I can agree with all of that. 🙂 (I, however, did enjoy OUATIH a great deal and wouldn’t mind it one bit if it won BP. I didn’t mind it at all when Green Book won – definitely preferred it to Roma, and liked it, anyway -, and this would be about the same.)
“One could argue is….”.
Yes, that one is probably you who is on a big ego trip who doesnt want to understand that many others like that movie and you who attacks that movie based on an opinion shared by a few!
Yet, you still try to support that Dolemite movie which is not even one of the top 10 watched Netflix movies. And yet you will probably push for Lupita or Erivo for a reason that is not about their performance only!
I wonder if this is personal with Greta or LW team refused to give ads to this site or something.
I cannot explain this obsession rationally!
What difference does it make if a film is one of the top 10 or not? Sasha supports Dolemite because she loves it, like many others do. She has also been at least semi-vindicated with her predictions, with many people telling her that it’s an absolute non-starter in terms of awards, but it actully showed up not only at the Globes, but at the NBR, Satellites, the MPSE, the MUHS and numerous critics’ circles, and it looks like at least a formidable challenger to win Best Actor (C/M) at the Globes ahead of DiCaprio in the BP frontrunner.
Lupita gave one of the most original and challenging performances of the year. Its disrespectful and even offensive to suggest that anyone championing for her to get a nomination have some political or racial agenda. And the irony is people like you are the ones championing someone like Saorise Ronan to get a nomination for a boring by the numbers performance she can do in her sleep. Insane.
And saying/insisting that LW might get any nomination because of gender card is not offensive and disrespectful???
And how do you even know that I champion Saorsie, because I dont???
This year, I am all for Renee and then Charlize followed by Alfre Woodard.
Yes Dolemite is a contender. Sure, Jan
#17 on gold derby with 2 expert votes, one of whom is Sasha.
I came here to get my daily dose of Little Women vitriol and frankly I’m bitterly disappointed. This kind of article is no way to start the new year, especially after I went out and bought a new pitchfork and torch at Home Depot.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5ca4db388c20829ce1cb993674c8035fbb9af1f42e9cb89e63af725add720ce5.gif
It’s hilarious to me to see so many of you come here every day and bitch about Sasha and Little Women. She’s getting so many clicks and views and comments all helping her business. Brilliant.
She knows her business! 😉
I finally saw the movie, I liked it overall, but really disliked some of the confusing editing. Not a Top 10 film for me.
You voted for Trump then?
Good one. https://media1.giphy.com/media/d28dXyVxq5EAg/giphy.gif
So who’s the loser in this scenario?! 🙂
I think takeaway #1 regarding studios being front and center is a compelling factor. Netflix and it’s competitors I still feel will have trouble in major categories although undoubtedly will feature in nominations, but wins? Scarlett Johansson maybe? The internet is always a factor but how much academy members are influenced by the nonsense and the chatter is arguable. I know stats are significant in terms of when a movie was launched but for me if it can survive the preferential vote is more important than when it arrives although 1917 may suffer if it hasn’t had enough time to percolate or maybe it doesn’t need that time to wow voters.
Personally (even if I’m a year behind most peoole) I prefer seeing a number of the prestige movies in January and February as it gives me time to pace , absorb and compare the films and then having the rest of the year to access film festivals and indie flicks on streaming or DVDs gives me a more considered critical appraisal rather than a glut of big ticket movies at once.
Hey, no back-handed remarks about ‘Little Women’ this time. That’s the only reason I scan these articles. You disappoint me, Sasha. Terrific movie, btw. My favorite this year.