There are five films this year that are nominated in the Best Director category. They are the strongest films of 2019 and one of them is likely to win Best Picture. Each of them says something deeply profound about the human experience. Two of these films are universal: Bong Joon Ho’s Parasite and Sam Mendes’ 1917. Three of them feel very specific to both America and American film: Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman, Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Todd Phillips’ Joker. The film community played the woman card in a big way when the Globes nominations were announced, when it turned out that all of the films nominated were made by men. The only way to rectify that, at least in the Best Director category, was to make-pretend that these five films aren’t the monumental achievements that they are. I don’t know about you, but I don’t see the point of film awards (or the dog and pony show that surrounds it) if they are here to give everybody a certificate rather than honor the year’s best.
The best films this year happen to be facing off at the Golden Globes, with a few notable omissions, like James Mangold’s Ford v Ferrari and (many believe) Greta Gerwig’s Little Women. Both of these films seem headed for the big show but won’t face off with anyone this Sunday. However, I would watch for Gerwig in the Adapted Screenplay category at the Scripters, WGA, and Oscars. She didn’t win for Lady Bird and her mojo is rising.
All of the heat is in Best Director. That’s true of the Best Picture race and of the Golden Globes. We probably can’t get an idea of the frontrunner from Best Picture at the Globes, since they’re divided into Musical/Comedy and Drama. We also can’t really get an idea of a consensus vote on a preferential ballot — that will have to wait for the Producers Guild. But the Best Director race can get a frontrunner here. Maybe. In the past ten years, half of the Best Director winners at the Globes have gone on to win the DGA and the Oscar, and the Globes and Oscars have matched on Best Director since 2015 — four straight years. It CAN be true but it isn’t always true, depending on how things go.
The Globes will either put everything behind one movie, as they did with La La Land, or divide up their wins to satisfy a much more competitive race. I’m betting that they divide things up more than they unite behind one.
In speaking with a friend last night about the Oscars, we both concluded that this probably isn’t a year where the awards will split in such a way that either The Irishman or Once Upon a Time in Hollywood will win Best Picture without winning Best Director. That’s because their directors would be the main reason these films won. And indeed, they are two of the best American directors at a time when American directors hardly ever win in the category. Films I think could win in a split if, say, Parasite wins in Best Director: maybe The Two Popes? I mean, you never know, right? Otherwise, I think it’s Tarantino/Once or Scorsese/Irishman — a paired win for each. That’s how I see it going in terms of the Oscars. As to the Globes, it’s really hard to say.
1917 is a film that could win Best Picture without winning Best Director, but it also seems like a film that could be a paired win, since so much of it is the singular work of the director. But really, it’s a collaboration of the director, actor, and cinematographer. We don’t know whether it will win or not, but history tells us that films with Pic, Director, and Screenplay tend to win over films that don’t have all three.
Here are the things to watch for on Sunday:
In the Best Screenplay category, who wins? It is almost as competitive there as it is in Best Director, except that Joker and 1917 don’t have Screenplay nominations and Marriage Story and The Two Popes don’t have Best Director nominations. Since 2000, only twice has a film won Screenplay without a Director nomination: Spike Jonze for Her and Aaron Sorkin for Steve Jobs. History tells us it will either be Tarantino, Scorsese, or Bong Joon Ho for Screenplay, but if they want to award Marriage Story SOMETHING and it isn’t winning anywhere else it could win here.
Best Actress — Musical/Comedy: I would watch out for Ana de Armas. General consensus has Awkwafina winning there and she very well might, but Knives Out has some heat around it right now and that could work in favor of de Armas.
Best Actor — Drama: If anyone but Joaquin Phoenix wins (I doubt anyone will, but…) then that could mean this one category is competitive. If it goes to anyone else, it could be Adam Driver for Marriage Story or Jonathan Pryce for The Two Popes.
Best Actor — Musical/Comedy: Word has it that there could be a surprise in the category. Common wisdom has it as Eddie Murphy for Dolemite Is My Name up against Leonardo DiCaprio for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, but watch out for Taron Egerton in this category, who could surprise. Remember, he did get a surprise SAG nom and is following in the trajectory of Rami Malek (this isn’t my revelation, though I wish I could take credit for it if it turns out to be true — a little birdie told me).
You can check out our predictions on the Oscar Squad and check out more predictions, and my most recent predictions, at Gold Derby.
The general consensus predictions would be something like this:
Best Picture — Drama: The Irishman
(I think 1917 could surprise in this category, as could Two Popes)
Best Actor — Drama: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
(if anyone can surprise it’s Jonathan Pryce in Two Popes, maybe Adam Driver in Marriage Story)
Best Actress — Drama: Renee Zellweger, Judy
Best Picture — Musical/Comedy: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Actor — Musical/Comedy: Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
(Leonardo DiCaprio in Once could win here, as well as Taron Egerton)
Best Actress — Musical/Comedy: Awkwafina
(I think Ana de Armas in Knives Out could surprise and win here)
Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
(I think Joe Pesci could surprise and win here)
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
(I think it’s Laura Dern’s to lose)
Best Director: Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
(I think if Irishman wins Pic, Scorsese will win Director, but I think Tarantino could win, Sam Mendes might win if 1917 takes Drama)
Best Screenplay: Marriage Story
(I think Tarantino could win here, as well as Two Popes or Parasite)
Foreign Language Film: Parasite
Animated Feature: Toy Story 4
Original Score: 1917
(Marriage Story could win here as well)
Also, be sure to enter our Globes contest if you haven’t done so already!
tomorrow will be the end of irishman. parasite never had a chance cause come on guys, its freaking korean and it isn’t “roma” (latin stuff) or even “amour”. joker will win best drama. tarantino comedy.
There’s nothing deeply profound about Parasite. Let’t be serious. It’s not Bergman or Cassavetes. Social divide is not profound. If you can see it at first glance, it’s not profound. Human behaviour and charcters yes but that’s not what Parasite is about. It’s a fun film, some sort of Asian Tarantino and that’s about it. I think The Host suited better his universe, and I think it’s his superior movie.
GAIL’S FINAL PREDICTIONS
My readings are very clear. I had lunch with an executive yesterday and he says nobody on the Hollwood Foreign Press Association’s Board could finish The Irishman. “Instead, they drank Bailey’s. In tradition of the film’s home country, they decided being intoxicated was better then finishing the movie.” The Globe hate any movies about war, especially Americans. They don’t care about politicians here either, hence Charlize Theron will Trump lackluster Renee Zellweger, in a movie that is not about Judy Garland. More so, it’s about the Joker before Phoenix became attached to the role.
Best Picture (Drama): Joker
Hollywood Foreign Press always will vote for a box office smash here.
Best Picture (Comedy): Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Tarantino’s time to shine.
Best Director: Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
Foreign director and the movie made me scream in fright.
Best Actor (Drama): Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Watch out for Christian Bale. They love him.
Best Actress (Drama): Charlize Theron, Bombshell
She will give a political speech about what’s going on in Iran.
Best Actor (C/Musical): Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Anyone playing a musical character wins. Elton John easily surpasses those thinking Eddie Murphy has a chance when the academy never picks him, or the washed up Leonardo DiCaprio who has enough of these sitting on his Global Warming mantelpiece.
Best Actress (C/Musical): Awkwafina, The Farewell
Name check.
Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Who else?
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
The Laura Dern train stops here. Her screen time in MS is so limited (and unlikable). She will have fun eating the vegetarian meal at her table instead.
Best Screenplay: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Quentin Tarantino
It’s his year.
Best Song: “I’m Gonna Love Me Again”, Rocketman
Best Original Score: Alexandre Desplat, Little Women
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 4
Best Foreign Film: Parasite
Good luck with your predictions loves. I’ll be at the Globes tomorrow wearing my flashy red gown from Versace and earrings from the 80s.
perfect, but i can see joe pesci happening.
Golden Globes award order:
https:// www. nbcnews. com/ pop-culture /awards/ how-watch-2020-golden-globes-tv-online-n1110321
Actress. limited series/TV movie
S. Actor, Movie
Actress, musical/comedy series
Actress, drama series
Actor, drama series
Drama Series
S. Actor, series/limited series/TV film
Original Score
Original Song
Actor, comedy/musical film
S. Actress, series/limited series/TV film
Animated Film
S. Actress, Movie
Screenplay
Foreign Film
Actor, miniseries/TV movie
Comedy Series
Actor, musical/comedy series
Director
Miniseries/TV movie
Actress, comedy/musical movie
Comedy/Musical Movie
Actor, Drama Film
Actress, Drama Film
Drama
Sorry I don’t know where to ask this but is anyone betting on the Globes? If so where are you doing it? What’s a legit betting site? I used Bovada for the Oscars last year which was fine but they don’t appear to have Golden Globes betting.
Michael, being in Europe helps…A lot.
FYI – Parasite just won Best Picture at the AACTA Internationals.
The last 3 winners (Roma, 3Billboards & LLL) went on to be the carrot frontrunner that was ultimately beaten by the main challenger.
Save 2012 (they went for Silver Linings Playbook) & 2015 (understandable slight bias towards local film in Fury Road), their winners tend to finish in the (theoretical) top 2.
This might indicate that Parasite will give Best Picture a serious tilt.
And lose. 🙂
🙂
As much as I’d love to see Awkwafina score a win at the Best Actress in a Comedy / Musical for her wonderful turn in an absolutely wonderful film like The Farewell, I’d also love to see a surprise like Ana De Armas for her fantastic performance in Knives Out. She was one of the most delightful surprises of Knives Out, one of my favorite mainstream American films of this year btw and I’d be delighted to see her on stage.
Also, I’m rooting for Charlize to score a win instead of Renee with what is in my mind a much better, much more nuanced and much more impressive turn but alas, not seeing this either.
Golden Globe predictions:
Best Motion Picture – Drama
JOKER
Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy
ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD
Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language
PARASITE
Best Motion Picture – Animated
TOY STORY 4
Best Director
Bong Joon-ho – PARASITE
Best Screenplay
Quentin Tarantino – ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD
Best Actress – Drama
Scarlett Johansson – MARRIAGE STORY
Best Actor – Drama
Joaquin Phoenix – JOKER
Best Actress – Musical/Comedy
Awkwafina – THE FAREWELL
Best Actor – Musical/Comedy
Eddie Murphy – DOLEMITE IS MY NAME
Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Lopez – HUSTLERS
Best Supporting Actor
Brad Pitt – ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD
Best Original Score
1917
Best Original Song
”(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” – ROCKETMAN
I think Drama is between Marriage Story and Joker (I’m going for the former).
Interesting to see people predicting Scarlett J for Best Actress Drama – I am too!
I think Egerton gets Best Actor Comedy/Musical.
Dern get Supporting Actress.
And I’m going ALL OUT with predicting Tom Hanks to take out Best Supporting Actor. If he can get this one, it could start the roll on to the Oscars.
Best score I’m feeling Joker (though haven’t seen or heard 1917 yet).
Otherwise, I agree with other choices.
I’m starting to think it’s Egerton too. But too lazy to switch (from Leo).
Swap it! He even got the SAG nom. I think he could even get the Oscar nom.
“We didn’t listen… We didn’t listeeen…” 🙂
It kind of feels like anything could happen, doesn’t it? Which is why I have put (modest) bets on Joker, Jojo Rabbit, Beanie Feldstein, Charlize Theron, Adam Driver, and Killing Eve – not because I necessarily think they will win, but at those odds I couldn’t not.
Big outsiders, mostly mentioned here and there, for the win include Laura Dern (way behind JLo), Tarantino (3rd behing Bong and Scorsese), 1917 (3rd) and Joker (4th), Pryce (5th…), Johansson (way behind Renee, 2nd), DiCaprio (2nd) and Egerton( way behind, 3rd), De Armas( 2nd, way behind Awkwafina), Pesci (3rd, miles behind Pitt, with Pacino 2nd). I surely go behind Dern and Tarantino (good hits) and considering all other (for…modest bets)
Surprise in Comedy Actor = Davis. he’s Baby Yoda of the awards season. 🙂
Final GG predix
DRAMA FILM: Joker
I insist it’s this year’s Bohemian Rhapsody and will “surprise” everyone here. It’s a massive box office success and it’s making really well at the guilds and the critics awards.
DRAMA ACTRESS: Scarlett Johansson
I don’t buy Zellweger as the frontrunner for such a forgettable film and I kinda doubt Theron can win now with Bombshell underperforming at box office.
DRAMA ACTOR: Joaquin Phoenix
As I mentioned, Joker will be this year’s BoRap. It’s a box office phenomenon, Phoenix is overdue and his performance is transformative.
COMEDY/MUSICAL FILM: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (lock)
COMEDY/MUSICAL ACTRESS: Awkwafina
Not a 100% lock but I doubt she’s not winning this.
COMEDY/MUSICAL ACTOR: Leonardo DiCaprio
Not a lock, but he seems to have better chances than Egerton.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Laura Dern
Not a 100% lock but I can’t see her losing this.
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Brad Pitt (lock)
DIRECTOR: Quentin Tarantino
I think they’ll consider him overdue in this category.
SCREENPLAY: Parasite
Tarantino could win here, but no way OUATIH is winning 5 and he’s not overdue here.
SCORE: 1917
Not a lock, but let’s see.
SONG: Into the Unknown (Frozen II)
Unpredictable category, but this is my prediction.
ANIMATED FILM: Toy Story 4 (lock)
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Parasite (lock)
I’m predicting Scarlett Johansson too for Best Actress Drama. After watching MS twice, her performance shines even brighter the second time through. This first viewing I was so captivated by Driver. They are both just sensational in this film.
It’s an embarrassment of riches in so many categories. Few if any frontrunners right now. I agree this could go in multiple directions and surprises as it is the first of the big awards and televised event. Perceptions and popularity will be examined.
Banderas…
yeah, I fear it too. I mean, I know it would be deserved but I really want a genre performance to win.