The Screen Actors Guild will also announce their top prizes this weekend. Since the Screen Actors Guild is now SAG-AFTRA and not just SAG, they don’t always align with the Academy as well as they used to. Last year, for instance, Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk was not nominated for a SAG but won the Oscar, while Emily Blunt for A Quiet Place was not nominated for an Oscar but won the SAG. Idris Elba was not nominated for the Oscar for Beasts of No Nation but won the SAG in a year of protesting the preponderance of white nominees at the Oscars.
The big focus heading into this weekend won’t just be on what is going to win the Best Cast ensemble prize and whether or not that matches the Producers Guild prize (if it does, the Best Picture race is likely decided) — it will also be on those nominees not also nominated for the Oscar. This year, that’s Lupita Nyong’o for Us and especially Jennifer Lopez for Hustlers. Can the frontrunners in their categories (Renee Zellweger and Laura Dern, respectively) still prevail?
I don’t know the answer to that. We’re talking about 120,000 voters here. Are they going to be caught up in the loop of outrage about these omissions? Jennifer Lopez got a big yelp over at the New York Times. Lopez got yet a second op-ed by Kyle Buchanan, who says that films fronted by women were “underseen,” even though Hustlers made over $100 million and Little Women is on its way towards that. Not getting the “underseen” part, especially considering what a big star Lopez is.
But neither of these pieces acknowledge the obvious: Little Women was pushed through by critics and by The NY Times and by hype. And ultimately the Academy liked Little Women more, as the nominations overall prove. That is what likely bumped Nyong’o and Lopez — the push for Little Women resulted in Saoirse Ronan and Florence Pugh getting nominations instead.
Florence Pugh did not have a Globe nor a SAG nom, whereas Kathy Bates had a Globe, while Scarlett Johansson had a SAG. Lopez had both. But to make way for Pugh, someone else had to go. The votes were probably close. Then again, Buchanan could be onto something: with the rushed season, did voters even have time to see everything? The nominations would indicate that the same movies were repeatedly cited in the majority of the categories, which could mean that only a handful were even watched. Either way, what matters more is what message got out. And how that will play into voting in the final stretch.
Here are the actresses that have Globe/SAG/Oscar:
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Here are those that have SAG + Oscar:
Scarlett Johnasson, Jojo Rabbit
And with Globe + Oscar:
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Globe and SAG but no Oscar:
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
Annette Bening, The Report
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Laura Dern is on a roll and Marriage Story is beloved. But Jennifer Lopez is an incredibly big star. So, my friends, it’s a toss up. But I would expect Dern would get a bit of a boost from Big Little Lies, which is very popular among these particular voters since they also do TV. So in a sense, she’s winning for both.
Either way, we’ll be posting our predictions later in the week. Here is your chance to predict.