Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures
1917 (Universal)
Producers: Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris, Jayne‐Ann Tenggren, Callum McDougall
Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
Toy Story 4 (Disney/Pixar)
Producers: Mark Nielsen, Jonas Rivera
Outstanding Producer of Documentary Motion Picture
Apollo 11 (Neon)
Norman Felton Award for Outstanding Producer of Episodic Television – Drama
Succession (Season 2)
Producers: Jesse Armstrong, Adam McKay, Frank Rich, Kevin Messick, Mark Mylod, Jane Tranter, Tony Roche, Scott Ferguson, Jon Brown, Georgia Pritchett, Will Tracy, Jonathan Glatzer, Dara Schnapper, Gabrielle Mahon
Danny Thomas Award for Outstanding Producer of Episodic Television – Comedy
Fleabag (Season 2)
Producers: Phoebe Waller‐Bridge, Harry Bradbeer, Lydia Hampson, Harry Williams, Jack Williams, Joe Lewis, Sarah Hammond
David L. Wolper Award for Outstanding Producer of Limited Series Television
Chernobyl (HBO)
Producers: Craig Mazin, Carolyn Strauss, Jane Featherstone, Johan Renck, Chris Fry, Sanne Wohlenberg
Outstanding Producer of Televised or Streamed Motion Pictures
Apollo: Missions to the Moon (National Geographic)
Outstanding Producer of Non-Fiction Television
Leaving Neverland (HBO)
Producer: Dan Reed
Outstanding Producer of Live Entertainment & Talk Television
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (Season 6; HBO)
Outstanding Producer of Game & Competition Television
RuPaul’s Drag Race (Season 11; VH1)
Producers: Fenton Bailey, Randy Barbato, Tom Campbell, Mandy Salangsang, RuPaul Charles, Steven Corfe, Bruce McCoy, Michele Mills, Jacqueline Wilson, Thairin Smothers, John Polly, Michelle Visage, Jen Passovoy
Outstanding Sports Program
What’s My Name: Muhammad Ali
Outstanding Children’s Program
Sesame Street (Season 49)
Outstanding Short-Form Program
Comedians In Cars Getting Coffee (Season 11)
The PGA Innovation Award
Vader Immortal: A Star Wars VR Series – Episode I
HONORARY AWARDS
Milestone Award
Ted Sarandos
Norman Lear Achievement Award in Television
Marta Kauffman
Visionary Award
Octavia Spencer
Stanley Kramer Award
Bombshell
David O. Selznick Award
Plan B (Jeremy Kleiner, Dede Gardner, Brad Pitt)
Charles FitzSimons Award
Mari Jo Winkler
Didn’t people here say just a week ago that 1917 have to make history in order to win Best Pic? That the boxoffice does not matter? Well I don’t like the film either, but you got to admit, Universal played this game really well.
Here’s how I see SAG will impact 1917’s odds of winning Best Pic:
1. if “Once Upon a Time” wins – 70% chance 1917 will take BP
2. if “Parasite” wins – 80%
3. if any other film wins – 100%
In other words, whatever the result tonight, 1917 will take BP
Not arguing…
… just a reminder though: Nearly every best Picture winner in the past decade has “made history” in one way or another.
Making history isn’t a drawback. It’s something the Academy loves to do.
Yes and wins that defy stats are only a problem if you don’t understand how stats work. Probability not certainty.
Posting this both here and in the new SAG thread:
I no longer think Parasite is very likely to win SAG ensemble, since it won ACE but lost PGA. (Although I still think it can beat the stat I’m about to give.) Now, since the BFCA introduced the ensemble category, 94% of the SAG ensemble winners were either the winner of that corresponding BFCA prize or the PGA winner (or both), when either of the two was nominated for SAG, which was not the case last year. That’s a 16/17 combined win stat with just one exception: Hidden Figures beating Moonlight. Therefore, Once kind of needed to win the PGA to actually be the SAG ensemble favorite (or at least co-favorite), and it hasn’t, therefore, since 1917 isn’t nominated for ensemble, The Irishman, the BFCA winner, seems a clear favorite here. I’m not sure I think it will win, as the season just doesn’t seem to be headed in that direction… But the stats say it’s very likely to, so I have to predict it, officially. And I certainly do think it might win. Since it managed to beat Once at BFCA in that category, despite the latter doing so well overall. (Although, in Once’s case, also, I still think it can win ensemble tonight, and my intuition tells me it’s still the most likely to do so, logically speaking. So, my final official prediction for ensemble is The Irishman, but my unofficial one is Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood. I seem to be split like that a lot these days. I guess I don’t trust the stats as much to give me THE exact solution, a single, unbeatable favorite, after the madness of recent Oscar seasons. As always, though, my official prediction is the only one I take any responsibility for. However, I am changing my contest entry to Once, because that would be troublesome enough stats-wise that I no longer really mind it if it doesn’t happen. Even though I think it deserves to win.)
This just has to be Once upon a time … in Hollywood – because (after nearly having written it off for the Oscars after last nights outcome) I want it to win! 😉
Now what is you were saying Claudiu about Parasite no longer likely to win SAG ensemble??
Just kidding. Regardless you made an excellent argument.
🙂 Yeah, that was purely a feeling-based prediction – because I thought they would keep making it as difficult as possible to predict against Once, despite its losing the PGA. But of course nothing had changed, stats-wise. Parasite was still as valid as Once for SAG ensemble. (Even if The Irishman had that weird win stat which clearly is no longer very relevant with AFTRA in the mix. Maybe none of them are anymore, at SAG. As always, time will tell.)
And the best picture Oscar goes to…..1917 congrats 🙂
You guys please keep an eye out for a SAG stream? For our friends in far-flung lands?
I don’t know what to feel about 1917. I don’t love it and I don’t hate it. I am neutral to it. It seems that ever since 2009, all the Best Picture winners have been movies that I neither liked or hated. Just indifferent to them. The preferential ballot seems to reward those films that are least hated, least divisive and most vanilla – perhaps Moonlight and 12 Year a Slave were a bit more important movies but most other Best Picture winners have been just OK.
I suppose I ‘liked’ it, but I definitely didn’t love it. But perhaps that’s why it may win, as I wouldn’t ‘hate’ it winning.
I enjoyed the experience. It’s technically well done, of course. MacKay is great. But I honestly forgot about it less than 15 minutes after the movie and haven’t thought much about it since.
So, again, maybe that means it’s winning…
It certainly has technical craft- or showmanship (depends on how much you appreciate it´s style, but I thought the cinematography and the production design were pretty great). The story, though, is pretty thin and follows the typical war movie storylines of a sympathetic hero that follows his mission against all odds and – surprise – finally accomplishes. It doesn´t have that much to say about the nature of war. I found the plot holes disturbing and annoying. But I was probably in the minority, a guy next to me in the theatre was crying.
I hear ya
I’ve never seen anything like 1917. The plot was original. Nothing typical about it.
I can’t wait to see 1917 with the best picture showcase on February 1st and February 8th
Many seem to be assuming 1917 wins BAFTA. I think it’s definitely (by far) the best bet. But the last three BAFTA winners matched the Australian Academy. Including when 3 Billboards beat Dunkirk. This year, the Australians went for Parasite. Big note though: 1917 wasn’t in running.
So, I could see the shocking scenario if 1917 wins Best British Film but Parasite wins Picture. Again, not what I’d bet on, but I can see it.
I can’t see BAFTA going for Parasite. If 1917 does win BAFTA, I would be legitimately shocked if it went on to win the Oscar.
The fact that BAFTA gave Best Picture to 3 Billboards (a ham-fisted artificial take on American culture) over Dunkirk and Darkest Hour — two movies actually about British history — should tell you all you need to know about BAFTA. They’re SO thirsty to be an Oscar precursor that they often make lame, confounding choices.
(Not to mention they skipped over the eventual Oscar winner — Shape of Water — and Call Me By Your Name to do this.)
But 3 Billboards was a Brit movie
So true.
A Brit who thought any American women born after 1910 would be named Mildred.
Wouldn’t joker get Bafta. The international critics love joker
I could see 1917 winning British Film and Joker winning Best Film over at BAFTA.
Yes, I can see Brit voters being thrilled to chose a movie that makes America look worse than Brexit UK.
That’s exactly what we would do.
This has nothing to do with the PGA or 1917, but since this is a community that appreciates the power of cinema, I thought I’d share this…
I’m a high school social studies teacher, and I’ve recently started a new, semester-long civics class called “Street Law.” For my unit on constitutional law, I decided to show the bulk of Penny Lane’s excellent 2019 documentary Hail Satan?, as it relates to the first amendment. My students were initially skeptical and quite uncomfortable. However, our semester just concluded, and on the course survey over 95% of students want me to continue showing the film. To quote Ebert, movies are a machine that generates empathy. They have the power to invite us out of our comfort zone, change our perspective, shape our worldview, and engage our minds in critical thought, and ultimately, make the world a better place in the process. I’ll leave you with a portion of a note one of my students wrote me at the end of the last class. Cheers to cinema!
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e86c242131b05391b3ba0f82fa3d58c4618683f827815683ce4edf7fbbc5b160.jpg
I can’t wait to see 1917. I’m pissed it won’t debut in my country until Thursday. It’s already online but I feel obligated to see it in a movie theater.
The online copy is dire. Better watched in the cinema for sure!
After the last two nights of guilds, slight update to where I think the contenders are, in comparison to where I had them before:
1. 1917 (+1)
2. Parasite (+1)
3. OUATIH (-2)
4. JoJo
5. Irishman
6. Joker
I can’t really see Joker winning, since it can’t win at SAG or DGA. Barring a BAFTA curveball, don’t see a path. Irishman could stay afloat if it wins SAG. OUATIH assumedly now needs SAG. SAG will either give a big boost to Irishman, OUATIH or JoJo, and if Parasite wins, that and 1917 may be in it til the end.
Irishman desperately needs to win something but it’s dead and buried imo. It seems like the industry has a lot of respect for it but no passion. SAG is between Parasite and Once Upon A Time In Hollywood and I have no idea what to predict.
Yea. I’m being kind and conservative, not killing anything yet. But I doubt Irishman, even if it wins tonight. I do actually think it can win SAG. There are so many vote factions tonight, I could see anything happening.
The Irishman is dead. It’s this year’s Blackkklansman: it’s the only movie that had all the necessary nominations everywhere, but didn’t actually win anything important anywhere.
I do wonder if a 2 1/2 hour version of the Irishman would have fared better in this climate — and the Netflix release plan has actually dulled its enthusiasm.
I’m not sure it would be much different was it a 2.5 hour movie from Paramount.
Yet. I’m not saying that it will, but it still could.
So you’re saying it’s winning Adapted Screenplay?
If 1917 goes all the way it’ll be the first time in a long time that the BP winner also has the most overall wins.
1917 is a much better choice than OUATIH. Don’t need Tarantino’s ego blown up more than it already is.
I think either would be excellent choices for Best Picture. But I think people just hear Quentin Tarentino’s voice and become inclined to vote for something else. Sam Mendes is total class in comparison.
That said, I’m still hoping for a major Parasite sweep.
I rarely get the chance to be this happy about being wrong! Who needs acting and editing when you’ve got picture and director?
Up to this year, everybody. 🙂 But maybe not this year…
I truly hope the BP race is not over for Once upon a time in Hollywood. It’s this, Parasite and The Irishman, all three absolute instant classics, that should end up with the BP Oscar as far as I’m concerned (though I can’t hold much hope for the latter anymore, that’s for sure). I hate it when a really good, ultimately “safe” film like 1917 or Green Book or even Crash back in the day (a much inferior next to the other two, but still solid picture in my book) gets the ultimate trophy instead of a phenomenal film like Parasite / Once upon a time in Hollywood / The Irishman, Roma or Brokeback Mountain. Once Upon A Time In Hollywood would make for such a deserving winner for me, an incredible, incredible piece of cinema. I’d like to think that the absolute best, foreign-language film of the year, Bong-Koon Ho’s exceptional Parasite ends up with the win but sadly, as Roma reminded us last year, that kind of win like for a foreign-language film is still no small feat. Ugh…
Not seeing the “revolutionary,” emotionally overwhelming “1917” as “safe” and find that overused term a crutch for those who favor other films. I like the other films you name and I have plenty of international films among my faves of this year, but I consider 1917 one of the very best films of this year by practically any barometer of measurement. Love “Parasite” but consider the German “Never Look Away” (2019 film for me as it received its US release in January of that year and missed my Jan. 1st list for ’18), Portrait of a Lady on Fire (France); An Elephant Sitting Still (China); Transit (Germany); The Wild Pear Tree (Turkey) and Synonyms (France/Israel) as even better films. I respect and recognize Parasite’s vaunted reputation and would have no issue with it winning. But of all the nominees, bold or sedate, I count “1917” at the best.
Most of you were convinced Hollywood is winning so stop bragging you
knew 1917 is winning. It wasn’t obvious and you didn’t make a case for
it here.
Most of us with a clear-eyed view of the way the race has been unfolding since Christmas have all said repeatedly that it’s a 4-way rivalry for Best Picture.
Most all of us would be thrilled to see any of the top 4 movies be named Best Picture.
I don’t see many people here “bragging they knew 1917 would win.” In fact, I don’t see any.
I just see dozens and hundreds of people who are not surprised that 1917 won last night, and not unhappy that it did.
But they say it wasn’t surprising or shocking. It was and I just wish they had made a case for it before instead of telling us now how obvious it was.
What are top 4 in your view Ryan? In this order mine are:
1. Joker
2. Ford vs. Ferrari
3. JO JO rabbit
4. Once Upon a time in Hollywood
The top 4 most likely to win Best Picture?
3 weeks ago we all thought:
1917
Parasite
The Irishman
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Now that The Irishman isn’t getting traction, we might be seeing Jojo Rabbit rise into the top 4.
I would add Ford v Ferrari to round out my personal top 5 (of the nominees).
My personal Top 25 is still in flux, but it’s shaping up to look like this:
Parasite
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Irishman
Pain and Glory
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Atlantics
Ford v Ferrari
Queen & Slim
Jojo Rabbit
Us
The Souvenir
Dolemite Is My Name
Last Black Man in San Francisco
Waves
Transit
Long Days Journey Into Night
Synonyms
Birds of Passage
A Hidden Life
Tigers Are Not Afraid
The Two Popes
I Lost My Body
Ad Astra
Little Woods
So you can pretty much relax, the Best Picture winner will almost certain be one of your top three films!
I’m shocked, sir, shocked at your third and fourth picks. Otherwise pretty close to my own year in review.
A little shocker makes the day sweeter!
Of what I’ve seen, Parasite, Pain and Glory, Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Us, The Two Popes and Ad Astra are also in my Top 25.
1917 and The Irishman are borderline.
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Waves…are not.
It’s basically game over not just because 1917 won PGA but also because it will win DGA and BAFTA and already has won GG. PGA/DGA/GG/BAFTA is stellar combo. People are bringing up editing miss and no SAG nominations but they don’t matter in this instance. Think a little. 1917 missed SAG completely (even stunts) because they didn’t see the movie. And Best Actor was the most crowded race in ages. As for editing, the movie is shot to look as is doesn’t have any editing done. I would say the only film with outside shot is Parasite, if it wins SAG Ensemble tonight. Because it’s a small, foreign movie that AMPAS should like more than American producers. But 1917 still likely will win BP, BD and many techs. Expect 6-9 oscar night for 1917
The HFPA has seen the film (indeed, it gave it 2 top awards) yet they didn’t nominate it for Screenplay. All BP winners get nominated for the triple crown at the GGs.
Yeah, that would be the only snafoo in all of this; that 1917 missed Writing at the Globes and will likely not win Writing at the Oscars. But every year, another stat goes down the tubes. We’ll see. I still have OUATIH winning BP. But it’s a real race now.
If 1917 doesn’t win Best Film at BAFTA… that’s when I’ll be sure it is winning at the Oscars.
I had a great time watching 1917, it really is an impressive film. And I don’t want to be a downer or outrage its fans but… I really had videogame vibes more than cinematic experience. I really think this film couldn’t be more spectacular… However I do think it just could be better.
This said, I can see my parents taking their car to watch this film on a theater and that certainly is a good thing. Cinema will be alive as long as expectation remains, so I’ll be happy if it wins.
Agree with your second paragraph. I think it’s a good thing that a big ole blockbuster war movie wins to show the movie-going public that “going to the movies” is still a thing, and a thing that is important. Same can be said of OUATIH, another big movie that made great box office.
As for the 1st paragraph, I’ve read “gimmick”, I’ve read “video game”. I did not notice either while watching the film. But I acknowledge that those aspects could be a hindrance to a win; plus the fact that it will likely not win Writing (a big belweather for BP winners as of late). Looks like a real race of OUATIH vs. 1917 with Parasite possibly coming up the middle. Jojo lingering there, etc.
1917 has poor BO in America
What a load of rubbish
False.
1917 has only been in theaters 3 weeks and it’s already earned $60 million domestic.
Opening weekend it earned twice what it had been estimated to take in.
THANK YOU. It’s a World War I movie with no big stars and it’ll most certainly get to $120 million in US grosses by the Oscars. It’s bound to become the most successful film about WWI ever made (if you set aside Wonder Woman).
Really? It looks destined for $120 mill domestic or more especially if it wins major awards.
It made more in it’s first wide release weekend than half of the other nominees have made overall. It’ll probably end up being the 2nd or 3rd highest grossing behind JOKER and maybe OUATIH.
Yea soooo true but I must confess perhaps? In order to engage increasingly fidgety young audiences perhaps this 3rd person view is necessary to engage young audiences in important lessons of history. It would be more grim bleak and real if it were more graphic. The foregoing of true graphic realism of war for not airbrushed treatment literally with artistic vibe is all well and superbly done but post saving private Ryan it frankly poor form for any war film.no matter how unique it is not to shock audiences. Or at very least shaken. Furthermore fun known why 1917 got script nomination I replace that for George McKay outstanding performance. Truth is it most one dimensional war film made it cleverness I truly admire is that it a war time safari a tour if you like of remnants of old battles to evolving emerging new battlefields across France in WWI .
It is Sam Mendes we talking about but as many seen here 1917 is somewhat overrated. Still I very relieved Irishman and parasite didn’t win the pga.
Question now is can 1917 win dga? Oscar best pic not foregone conclusion yet .
I’m still not convinced 1917 has BP in the bag.
Once is almost certain to win SAG, and I wouldn’t count out Parasite at DGA.
I think it’s far too early to say it has it in the bag. Though, I don’t think Once has it in the bag at SAG tonight, either.
I think at this point…
1. 1917 – 50%
2. Jojo Rabbit – 20%
3. Once upon a Time… in Hollywood – 15%
4. Parasite – 4%
5. Any of the rest, combined, 1%, most likely The Irishman, then Joker, then Ford v Ferrari, then Little Women, then Marriage Story
I’m gonna go more with:
1917: 50%
Parasite: 30%
Once Upon a Time: 15%
Jojo: 4%
Irishman: 1%
Jo Jo Rabbit: 0%
Jojo is the different one, the crowdpleaser… the one that is not directly competing in appeal and the one that only a few would hate.
What you seem to not be getting is that while a “crowdpleaser” with some (and I like the film myself) is is divisive and IS hated by a good number of people who resent films that include Hitler in a playful manner. Right now just about every sane person has long realized that film is way out of the hunt and it seems only those very few (I can count them on my hand) who are obsessed with it are continuing to hold a candle. It is all over as it is for MS and F vs. F. Let’s seriously start talking about the 3 left standing (1917, Parasite, Hollywood). All else is a waste of time. Oh BTW the real “crowdpleaser” of the bunch is actually F vs. F.
reviewers… but AMPAS members? Being a nominee on almost every guild indicates AMPAS loves it.
Correct. AMPAS does love it enough to have it sneak onto six categories as a “nominee” but it was never seen as a serious contender to win, especially not in the major categories. It “could” end up winning screenplay but even that is uncertain. Sorry but I am seeing it as having any chance at all at this point in time.
People were also certain Once is winning PGA. Heard so many arguments and they all crumbled like sand castles. The voters can only reward Parasite in Ensemble as opposed to OUATIH for which they can vote in other categories. All the ballots I’ve seen had Parasite as their choice and I know it might not mean much but there seems to be passion for this movie.
Mad Hatter, (Alper aside) I don’t think ANYONE thinks 1917 has it “in the bag” they are just saying right now it seems to have a slight upper hand. Like the other big fans of the film I feel excited to some degree. What I will say with near-certainty though, is that should OUATIH not win the SAG tonight (Parasite and Irishman would appear to be the two that could upend it) 1917 would then take a more commanding position in these proceedings.
I predicted yesterday on another thread here at AD on two occasions that “1917” would win the PGA. I was told I was “deluded” by one person and ridiculed by another. Mind you I am not boasting remotely as I have been wrong more times than right over the years, but let’s take my winnings here and parlay them into another prediction. Sam Mendes will win the DGA on Saturday. Note: to the site OUATIH fans, should that film fail to win tonight at SAG (I think it may prevail narrowly) it is probably finished for any real shot at the Oscar BP. In any case it is conceivable that “Parasite,” “The Irishman” or yes even “Jo Jo Rabbit” could be read out of the envelope. If that should happen I can only see it helping “Parasite” as at this point in time I am convinced it is all over for “Jo Jo Rabbit” and “The Irishman.”
Sam! You’re always so sharp!
Thank you my friend! Much appreciated.
Calm down y’all. Statistically, at best, so far, 1917 is like La La Land.
If it’s La La Land now, it’s over. It’s too late for a Moonlight to appear. The Oscars are just three weeks away.
If it loses WGA to Parasite, then Parasite would be in Moonlight position.
I mean, if you’re 1917, that’s a really, really, really good place to be going into the Oscars, don’t you think? “AT BEST” you’re the front-runner and destined to win multiple awards!
But I wouldn’t mind a Moonlight/Parasite comparison here.
It’s good. No doubt, but silly to anoint it as inevitable BP.
True. I’m very nervous about predicting it. The very definition of weak, extremely vulnerable front runner… I’d much rather be given good reason to predict Parasite. (By a favorable WGA or even DGA decision.)
In unrelated news: finally going to watch A Hidden Life this afternoon
I envy you. I had the choice between seeing Cats or A Hidden Life last week-end. I chose wrong.
I tried but the fish eye lens throughout the movie is not my thing.
Wonderful! Can’t wait to hear what you think
Like most Malick, I get that it’s not for many. But I loved it. Think it’s my #2 this year. It was actually rather straightforward, compared to some of his other films. Contemplative. A fantastic story of internal will and values. Not to mention love. Really adored it. Can’t wait to watch it again.
I was really excited for this one and watched it yesterday but I ended up hating it. I just couldn’t get into it. But maybe it’s right up your alley.
We will see. I loved Badlands and The Tree of Life. Many of his others didn’t work for me. So, know I may love it or hate it.
The camera work was really strange. It wasn’t my cup of tea either. Sort of felt experimental with all those weird angles.
I absolutely adored it. My #3 film of the year behind only Never Look Away and 1917.
Never Look Away was my favorite from 2018. Finally got it on disc a few weeks ago. Masterful
Henrique, thrilled to hear that! Well with my system and I’ve used it for over 4 decades is I go by USA theatrical release date as my Top 20 is always posted on January 1st of every year. NEVER LOOK AWAY opened at Manhattan’s Film Forum late in January 2019 (so it never would have had a chance to make my 2018 list because I like virtually everyone else) could not have seen it until then. But either way it is cool!
it is one of te most beautiful films I’ve seen. and the score, so brilliant, bought it too. so sad it came back empty handed at the Oscars
Henrique, that Richter score is wholly magnificent!! I totally agree with you on all you say and I adore the film so so much that I even have it # 1 of the entire decade!! Here is my Top 50:
1. Never Look Away (2019; Germany) F. Von Donnarsmarck)
2. The Tree of Life (2011; USA) Terrence Malick
3. Brooklyn (2015; Ireland) John Crowley
4. The Turin Horse (2012; Hungary) Bela Tarr
5. The Artist (2011; France) Michel Hazanavicius
6. A Quiet Passion (2017; UK) Terence Davies
7. The Rider (2018; USA) Chloe Zhao
8. Indignation (2016; USA) James Schamus
9. BPM: Beats Per Minute (2017; France) Robin Campillo
10. 1917 (2019; UK) Sam Mendes
11. La La Land (2016; USA) Damien Chazelle
12. Interstellar (2014; USA) Christopher Nolan
13. A Hidden Life (2019; USA) Terrence Malick)
14. Mysteries of Lisbon (2010; Portugal) Raul Ruiz
15. Melancholia (2011; Denmark) Lars Von Trier
16. The Death of Louis XIV (2017; France) Albert Serra
17. Son of Saul (2015; Hungary) Laszlo Nemes
18. Manchester by the Sea (2016; USA) Ken Lonergan
19. Phoenix (2015; Germany) Christian Petzold
20. Carol (2015; USA) Todd Haynes
21. Cold War (2018; Poland) Pawel Pawlikowski
22. A Pigeon Sat on a Branch (2015; Sweden) R. Andersson
23. Lean on Pete (2018; UK) Andrew Haigh
24. Capernaum (2018; Lebanon) Nadine Labaki
25. Leviathan (2015; Russia) Andrey Zvyagintsev
26. The Shoplifters (2018; Japan) Hirokazu Kore-eda
27. The Great Beauty (2013; Italy) Paulo Sorrentino
28. Holy Motors (2013; France) Leos Carax
29. Force Majeure (2016; France/Norway) R. Ostlund
30. Des Hommes et Des Dieux (2011; France) Xavier Beauvois
31. 12 Years a Slave (USA; 2013) Steve McQueen
32. Short Term 12 (USA; 2013) Destin Daniel Cretton
33. Jackie (2016; USA/Chile) Pablo Larraín
34. Little Women (2019; USA) Greta Gerwig
35. Waves (2019; USA) Trey Edward Shults
36. The Shape of Water (2017; USA) Guillermo del Toro
37. Another Year (2010; UK) Mike Leigh
38. Quand on a 17 ANS (2017; France) Andre Techine
39. A Separation (2011; Iran) Asghar Farhadi
40. Uncut Gems (2019; USA) Joshua and Ben Saftie
41. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (2019; France) C. Schimma
42. The Life of Pi (2012; USA/UK) Ang Lee
43. Hoje Eu Quero Voltar Sozinho (2014; Brazil) Daniel Ribeiro
44. An Elephant Sitting Still (2019; China) Hu Bo
45. Lady Bird (2017; USA) Greta Gerwig
46. Ida (2014; Poland) Pawel Pawlikowski
47. Roma (2018; Mexico) Alfonso Cuaron
48. Her (2013; USA) Spike Jonze
49. Winter Sleep (2015; Turkey) Nuri Bilge Ceylan
50. The Hunt (2013; Denmark) Tomas Vinterberg
Brooklyn ! Number 3 ? I have a question have you seen The Immigrant . As an examination of the immigrant experience and as a story about faith redemption and forgiveness The Immigrant would easily make my top ten of the decade . I will never forgive Harvey Weinstein for destroying that film . Can’t wait to see Never Look Away. Also what did you think of Phantom Thread ? As for 1917 very good movie but it’s no Paths of Glory or All Quiet on the Western Front .
Steve Barr, though The Immigrant missed my list I DO like it absolutely and basically agree with all you say there including what Harvey did to it. I also like The Phantom Thread but maybe not as much as others. While I adore 1917 I concur that “All Quiet on the Western Front” (vies with “Come and See” as my favorite war film ever) and “Paths of Glory” are the greatest WW1 films of all-time absolutely. I did not that to another commenter yesterday. Thank you!
no The Square? sad 🙁
my decade top 5 would be
1. Mad Max Fury Road
2. Inside Out
3. Blade Runner 2046
4. The Square
5. Never Look Away
it’s been a loooong time a favorite of mine has won BP
Thank you for responding Henrique!! I actually like THE SQUARE quite a bit and it nearly made my list. You make great choices there too!
We’re not alone! 🙂 Up to four now: you, me, Henrique and Sammy. (AD people who love “Werk ohne autor”, of course.)
Sammy too? Awesome! I feel terrible about giving her a hard time on Jo Jo Rabbit.
Yeah, I told Sammy at some point last year how much I loved Never Look Away, she saw it and loved it as well. It was pretty cool – my movie recommendations don’t often work out, somehow. 🙂 (Probably because I usually don’t take into account what kind of movies the person I’m making the recommendation to is likely to love.)
I’d be extremely surprised if OUATIH didn’t win SAG. It’s a money-making Tarantino movie with Leo and Brad who play an actor and a stuntman, if this doesn’t scream SAG I don’t know what does. This group can be very predictable, and it will go just as many expect it to go, so OUATIH, Joaquin, Renée, Laura, Brad. Only Stunt Ensemble is up in the air.
Were you surprised it didn’t win PGA?
No. I was sure 1917 would win that after the Globes.
Parasite would be a winner in the same vein as previous ones like The Full Monty, Sideways, Crash, Little Miss Sunshine and Slumdog Millionaire. I’m not ruling it out.
I so want to see SAG crap allover tarantino’s face by giving it to parasite or jojorabbit
Are we overestimating OUATIH for SAG? Does the industry love it that much? My heart is telling me Parasite so I don’t know what to do.
Hollywood is locked for a SAG win for Pitt so I tend to think they will prefer Jojo or Parasite for Ensemble
Key lesson of Oscar watching: your heart generally loses. But, my heart is with Parasite anyway!
My heart told me OUATIH is losing PGA so it was right this time.
I think it’s a tossup really between the three films.
It’s kind of designed for SAG’s strengths though. LOTS of actors (and good roles for women), many playing historical figures, two big movie stars, one on-fire actress at the top of her game. PLUS duh it’s about Hollywood.
If I were an actor, I would vote for this just because I would want to have been cast in it. And I say this as somebody who would prefer to see Parasite win.
(I realized after I typed out the above comment that Jojo Rabbit actually meets most of that criteria as well.)
I’ve encountered the same arguments for PGA as well. How could a movie about actors not win? The industry is expected to vote for it but isn’t that too predictable? If I were a voter I would go for something totally different but that’s just me.
As an actor I could also see really wanting to have been in Parasite (language issues aside). Every role’s a gem. A true ensemble showcase.
I am a voter and I voted for Parasite. And the reasons: a) it’s an outstanding cast and an outstanding film; b) it was the only way to honor that, given the lack of individual nominations; and c) to send a message to AMPAS. The question is: was a majority of voters on my wavelength?
What do you think it’s winning Stunt?
I voted for Avengers, but I really have no idea. I almost voted for Ford v Ferrari, and I suspect it could be the winner.
From your lips to God’s ears! A Parasite win here and at the Oscars would heal all wounds.
It’s nice to hear from a voter. All the ballots I’ve read had Parasite in Ensemble as well but that’s just a small sample in a sea of votes. People love it and it’s the only way they can reward it as opposed to OUATIH for which they can vote in many other categories.
Who got your vote in the 4 film acting categories?
Nyong’o, Bale, Foxx, Lopez.
How about 1917 winning because it is a cinematic masterpiece. I really like all of the nominees. The stunning technical achievement is used at the service of the emotional impact on the characters, including the cameos, and the devastation on all the soldiers and civilians. I think Jojo Rabbit matches it as an anti war statement. I feel that Little Women matches both in emotional impact, character development, and the love in the relationships. Ford v Ferrari also is elevated by the 3 main relationships of Ken Miles..
So I got 3/3 in the contest, indeed, with my insurance pick… (Which I’m sure at least 50 other people did. Plus I’ve NEVER gotten back a receipt for my PGA predictions in Gmail, for some reason, even though I get them for every other contest, and I tried submitting multiple times – so I probably won’t even show up on the list. I’d ask Ryan to look into that, but there are more important things to do, surely, and there’s no prize anyway, so I won’t. If he finds the time, I’d be grateful. Either way, I’m glad my research for the other two winners, Toy Story 4 and Apollo 11, proved fruitful, even if most others probably reached the same result via simple logic. I’m too lazy to think these things through thoroughly – I’d rather just make calculations. :D) But I got my official prediction wrong, yet again. Not at all surprised. Speaking of which, here’s what I wrote last night, before going to bed:
“For the record, based on my basically NEVER being able to predict the PGA correctly in recent years EXCEPT when it was something I’d rather have seen lose here (La La Land, because it was a boring outcome, plus the SAG snub – I liked the movie a lot -, The Shape of Water for the same reasons plus I hated it… I guess Birdman was the last time a pleasant surprise happened for me here, and 12 Years a Slave the last time the movie I expected AND wanted to see win did, at PGA), I get a strong feeling Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood will not win here. Based on precedent, when the BFCA+GG picture winners lose here, it’s (with the exception of Sense and Sensibility losing to Apollo 13) to either one of the screenplay winners of those two precursor awards or the Globe winner in the other picture category. Which would mean 1917 would be by far the most likely alternate. (And, again, that’s what I picked in the contest, even though I stand by my official prediction of Once, and that’s the only that counts for future bragging rights or, more likely, flak-catching purposes.)”
So, to sum up, the most logical alternate indeed won – the kind that had, up to this point, won 4/5 times when the BFCA+GG picture winner failed to win the PGA. (The other GG picture winner.) As expected, no Jojo or Joker win – those were always pretty silly theories. I sort of thought the Joker one had some marginal chance of happening, but not really…
This is best for 1917 and, I think, Parasite. (Since it’s foreign and those never win the PGA anyway.) By far these two. (Everything else showed unquestionable weakness here.) And worst for Once, of course. I still think, technically, it has some chances of ending up the stats favorite (possibly even if it loses the DGA – which I’m 99% sure it will), but I don’t see it happening. I DO think it will win SAG today, but I also think it will very likely lose Best Picture. But it’s not dead… Jojo kind of is, though (not officially, but logically), due to that stat about movies snubbed for directing never ever having won Best Picture after losing the PGA. Probably everything except 1917, Parasite, Once and The Irishman is out of play by this point.
With all that in mind – and noting that I may change this once I go through all of the research I’m about to -, I’m switching my unofficial Best Picture prediction back to 1917, which I briefly had in that slot as soon as news of the first reviews for it came in, last year. One thing I’ve already been proven right about is that it would be a bigger threat to win Best Picture than The Revenant. I don’t think that can be denied any longer. From here, who knows what happens?!
Page six google this:
SAG Awards predictions: Voters predict the 2020 winners
Honestly, I don’t understand too much the shock here. “1917” was always a top 3 contender, and Producers Guild was an obvious place where it has to prevail. No other film besides this one, and both “Parasite” or “OUATIH” – “Joker” as a spoiler – can win Best Picture. “Jojo Rabbit” has no chance to the big picture, no matter how many scenarios you try to figure out. People talk too much about SAG stats, Editing Stats… but they seem to forget what is for me the most important: Since BAFTA changed its date to try to influence the Oscar race, no film has ever won Best Picture at the Oscar without a BAFTA nomination for Best Picture. “Million Dollar Baby” was not released in UK in time for BAFTA that year, so for me it is a stat that has never been broken. You are not winning Best Picture at the Oscar if you don’t have the British contingent vote.They are almost 2 thousand in the Academy.
Tonight will be interesting. I have no idea what is winning Ensemble. I’d love a Parasite upset, but I think it’s wide open.
Parasite winning would be amazing. Praying for it.
I’m going to see this film, today. I already saw ‘The Irishman’ and I thought it was very well-acted and the editing and cinematography stood out to me, the most. I’m very interested in seeing ‘Parasite’, though I’m still unsure of the story. But I do know this: This PGA win gives ‘1917’ the momentum heading into the Oscars. But we should NEVER discount Hollywood’s penship for being self-congratulatory; so don’t be surprised if ‘Once Upon A Time…In Hollywood’ sneaks into the winner’s circle at the last minute. Usually, as far as the guilds are concerned, it’s the SAG Ensemble award winner that tends to indicate who the likely Best Picture winner will be. But the last few years have seen a drop-off in that particular trend. I will be most interested to see who wins the DGA. I’m not so certain it will be Sam Mendes, though. Quentin Tarantino could get it, this time. While Scorsese’s direction of ‘The Irishman’ was nomination-worthy, he’s purely a space-filler this time around. Regardless, I’m really looking forward to seeing ‘1917’ later on.
No I won’t complain too much 1917 won..except seems may be? Academy going once again fall for trap of their own making to go for lesser landmark film achievement and overlook far higher quality pictures in Joker and Jo Jo Rabbit. Film’s unlike 1917 that truly deeply capitalise on key dramatic moments don’t hold back different film’s yes but similar in principle. And fuk knows why Ford vs. Ferrari has been undermined only have 4 nominations this year
“overlook far higher quality pictures in Joker and Jo Jo Rabbit”
That’s the funniest thing I’ve read today, thank you. Those films — in particular, of all the Best Picture nominees — are even bigger, shallower gimmicks than 1917.
Errr….nope clearly you don’t understand meaning of depth in film’s 1917 is war time safari with third person perspective little no characterisation and obe dim3nsional drama u can’t say that bout joker or jo jo sorry
Soooo happy it wasn’t Joker…
..And a lot of people will NOT be happy u know
And those people are largely misanthropes and sociopaths…
I wouldn’t go THAT far. Some of the sociopaths like JoJo Rabbit too!
Talk bout bad judgement call no on contrary people back it in reject political correctness that has jeopardized merits too many recent past ‘ safe Oscar winners that end up being least memorable film’s the year after it won. See a beautiful mind…, Slumdog millionaire, moonlight, to mention a few do any talk of these films much on reflection? No conversely pple still remember fellowship of the ring -lost that year, Munich- clearly academy running scared by this most boldest of works by maestro Spielberg and if no two towers that year that be my best film for sure …, again it all political correctness that has put off audience backing in academy awards as thrir show of choice hence decline of ratings don’t anyone tell me not big deal I remind u all once again where would Hollywood be without film audiences financial support? It be elitist paradise catering only to critics and become shadow of it former self which is already happening already
You don’t honestly believe this do you? You drank the Film Twitter Kool-Aid.
WTF is Film Twitter?
Sorry Monty, would you like me to send you the answer to this via telegram?
Sorry, I forgot my tags. Again.
similar to the sickness of regular twitter, but a lot more snot.
Yes because that’s how it got 11 nominations
Well, it can take as little as 10 or 15% of the members from any branch to get an Oscar nomination. I wouldn’t be too surprised to learn that 10% of humans are misanthropes. Especially American humans.
Hate to hammer the point, but 63 million Americans voted for a sociopath and think god hand-picked that sack of rat shit.
I hope you’re not saying that joker is somehow associated with pro trump people because that’s crazy. At best joker is a mirror and the world is pretty angry right now.
Yes, the world is full of murderers. It’s full of weak pathetic men who get their wittle feelings hurt and then they lash out and destroy the lives of innocent people. Trump is one of those men.
No movie, mirror of society or not, can make me sympathize with those murderers.
Vily and Renard both think that’s the message. “If only we would coddle these sick incels that nobody wants to fuck because because they’re creepy!” Incidentally Vily and Renard both worship Trump, and that’s their takeaway?
Which is doubly sick and bizarre, because literally the only social programs we have (as insufficient as they are) are all thanks to Democrats. Meanwhile Republicans work tirelessly to cause more suffering, create more inequality, and destroy our social safety nets .
Do people like Joker who aren’t pro Trump? Of course.
Do people like Joker who think it’s a tribute to Trump? Fuck yes, and it’s those people who scare me and pretty much disgust me.
And that’s because you said you did not hate Joker? I wonder what you’d say if you did.
Happiness in hate. That’s inspirational.
I don’t hate Joker and I’m immensely relieved that it didn’t win.
Don’t people ever get fuckin sick of themselves for recklessly accusing other people of being motivated by “hatred.”
Shocked you can’t deeply appreciate a film of supreme quality that joker for best pic? Thought you all people would look beyond your moral compass to embrace what world has embraced…I think it actually such enthralling engaging epic of a film and can’t u value it artistic merit it redefinition of stock standard comic book adaptation? Why should we subject ourselves to political correctness which frankly more often than not perverse narrows our vie of language truly great movies. Course dear friend u entitled have your other preferences best movie of year but why deny joker best pic win possibly? Don’t you see this is PRECISELY why Oscars losing public ratings and respect of public they almost always hold themselves back from embracing true best film of year cos of a self righteous moral compass no! The worst thing Oscar can do is sideline joker to just best acting Oscar …Oscar were never meant to be the morality police which, given their min. Once a decade of scandal is appallingly hypocritical by academy so again i ask why judge joker by moral lessons? What difference will it make on st of America? MORE shootings ? That kinda impossible given no offence record mass shootings states endure year upon year upon year….bottom line when academy gonna stop sharade start embracing film’s not by how moralistic they are in content but how great thr y are for as long as academy play morality police embracing film’s other ones best picture over true best picture not defined by moral barriers treats frankly as joker does film audiences mature minded not to learn wrong lessons from film like that. And what? Silence of the lambs last truly majorly dark film was not too immoral for academy ? It this hypocrisy which former supporters viewers of academy been put off from isn’t it time academy stop treating viewers thr y trying reach out to with kid gloves ?
Embracing joker best pic unlikely def. Not impossible is best thing academy could do ultimately it bout best quality film’s and that public cares about enough to talk about no film been more talked about than joker it film we should celebrate and academy should to don’t u all see?
You’re absolutely right. Imposing “hatred” on other people’s opinion is a typical woke thing. My bad. But feeling relief or happiness for somebody else’s failure is sad nonetheless. You sound just like JW in that regard.
“But feeling relief or happiness for somebody else’s failure is sad nonetheless.”
I’m relieved that my least favorite nominee didn’t win, so yeah, crucify me.
I don’t even know who JW is.
Hey man, love you and Sasha. Read my post again. I did not insult you. Perhaps my problem is trying to always see things from a positive angle. That’s why I feel sad when people somehow celebrate failure, even if it’s from something they don’t like. Is that an insult? If it is, I don’t know what else to say. Love and peace. PS: I thought it was obvious who JW is. 🙂
I misunderstand where you’re coming from. I’ve cleaned up my reply so I sound less defensive.
I do take offense that you think I’m “celebrating someone’s failure.”
Am I not allowed to be happy and relieved that one my favorite movies won and my least favorite nominee didn’t?
I hardly think anyone associated with Joker feels like a “failure. ”
Your entire manner of regarding the loss of a plaque as a “failure” is confusing to me.
Please believe me when I say my happiness last night had nothing to do with any pleasure I derived from anyone *losing”.
I’m gonna guess that (hopefully) you’re not a huge fan of Trump. Will you not be relieved if someone more human and more humane beats him in November? If I’m relieved when Trump loses, please don’t frown at me for being happy about Trump’s “failure”
I like what I like. You like what you like. Fair?
If you wanted Joker to win Best Picture, I’m sorry that you’re having a rough weekend.
p.s. … nope, I still don’t know who JW is….
John Wayne?
Joanne Woodward?
I am too, Jim.
For me, it represents a new low for humanity. My soul hated me for seeing it. I saw it with five others, and we all gave it two thumbs down.
Oh please. The script is only OK but there are many great things about it.
Like?
I liked it for what it was but it’s pretty sad that people think it’s some pinnacle of cinema when it is nothing but a comic book movie dressed up in 70s party drag.
You are wrong.
Sorry BillyBUD but you can’t tell me how I did/did not feel watching such an abhorrent mess unfold.
Of course I can’t. Bud?
Current thoughts (due to change at any moment, lol):
Picture: 1917
Director: Sam Mendes, 1917
Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Actress: Renee Zellweger, Judy
Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Supporting Actress: Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (in a surprise)
Original Screenplay: Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
Adapted Screenplay: Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Cinematography: 1917
Production Design: Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood
Costume Design: Little Women
Film Editing: Ford v Ferrari
International Film: Parasite
Makeup: Bombshell
Original Score: Joker, Hilda Gudnadottir
Song: Rocketman
Sound Mixing: 1917
Sound Editing: Ford v Ferrari
Visual Effects: 1917
Animated: Toy Story 4
1917 – 5 wins
OUATIH – 2 wins (and no win for Quentin, I struggle with that)
Parasite – 2 wins
Joker – 2 wins
Little Women – 2 wins
Ford v Ferrari – 2 wins
Jojo Rabbit – 1 win (many love Dern, but AMPAS loves Jojo more)
Judy – 1 win
Bombshell – 1 win
Rocketman – 1 win
Toy Story – 1 win
Why would 1917 lose sound editing? plus These go together usually.
Ford v Ferrari is likely to win something and Editing usually goes together with the Sounds, so it should win at least one of those.
If 1917 does indeed win Best Picture it would be the first Best Picture winner with no SAG nominations for ensemble OR acting since Braveheart in 1996, the first with no Oscar acting nominations since Slumdog Millionaire in 2009, and the first film to win Best Picture without an ACE Eddie or Oscar film editing nomination since Ordinary People in 1981 (Birdman had an ACE Eddie Comedy nomination but no Oscar nomination; Driving Miss Daisy and Spotlight had Oscar nominations but no ACE Eddie nominations).
However the biggest stat that 1917 would breaking upon winning Best Picture is that no film has won Best Picture while missing BOTH ACTING AND FILM EDITING NOMINATIONS since the creation of the Best Film Editing category in 1935 (7th ceremony). The last film to win without both acting and film editing nominations was Grand Hotel in 1933 (The others were inaugural winner Wings in 1929 and All Quiet on the Western Front in 1931). So yes, this is going to be an interesting race I will say.
When Hollywood wins SAG tonight things will be back on track
Sure, Jan
Isn’t it obvious?? The Irishman is going to win BP! No wait, Once is now going to win! Uh… wait… oh heck, these predictions are really aging badly. I know. Tenet is going to win Best Picture! At least that gives me cover for a year.
Sure Jan
It’s between Hollywood and 1917, unless Parasite surprises tonight for Best Cast at SAG. Jojo is DEAD, if you’re going to get snubbed for Best Director at the Oscars, you must win the PGA which is what Driving Miss Daisy, Argo, and Green Book were able to do. Jojo failed to do that last night.
Hollywood needed PGA a lot worse than JoJo did. QT did himself no favors last night either.
And why is that Chase? Tarantino has the Director nomination, and Watiti does not. Winning PGA was way more crucial for Jojo Rabbit because of that Director Oscar snub. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is incredibly like to win Best Cast at SAG tonight based on a conversation I had this morning with a friend of mine from NYC who’s interviewed hundreds of SAG voters, so it’ll still be in the conversation.
Actually… on Tenet what you think of trailer ? Looks incredible but is Nolan too far ahead with supreme quality film’s he does year and year for Oscars tastes?
Nolan’s films are cold, clinical exercises in style only. Just look at how 1917 is serving up a can of whupass on Dunkirk.
I think Dunkirk had more depth than you give it credit for but I rethinking 1917 for me MAY be on par to standard of Dunkirk is 1917 your choice best film of year deserves win Oscar based on list of current Oscar contenders? What u top 4?
Jo Jo Rabbit was the best film of the year hands down. Followed by Joker, The Lighthouse, Little Women, and Uncut Gems.
Heh, both Wings and All Quiet were films about WWI.
This is why we love you, Ina.
(Also, in 1938, La Grande Illusion was the first foreign language film ever nominated for Best Picture.)
(Also, I’m weary of hearing people say that nobody cares about movies about WWI. Apparently those people have a really weak grasp of what they were watching when they saw Lawrence of Arabia.)
Of course all these films were released when the Great War was the only world war there was
The Editing/Acting stat is huge, but very few movies in Oscar history had the single shot stuff.
I’m so happy to wake up to this news. I just assume that OUATIH (another film I love) will win BP at the Oscars. But 1917 surprised me when I saw it a couple of weeks ago. I just never figured it to move me or wow me as much as it did. So when it won the Globes and now PGA, it’s given me a little boost of excitement in a season that seemed pre-ordained. Whatever happens, I loved OUATIH, 1917, Parasite and Jojo so much. If any of them win big, I’ll be a happy camper.
Never thought we would still witness a year where a Christmas-release is *still* not too late. Especially in a very strong year like this.
I love 1917, so I’m good with it. In fact I love most of the awards-films this year: Irishman, OUATIH, Parasite, Joker (yes), FvF, and a lot more (haven’t watched Jojo, LW) too, and they’re great.
1917 is far from locked in my opinion. Still can see 6 of them winning BP in order of:
1. OUATIH
2. 1917
3. Joker
4. Parasite
5. Jojo
6. Irishman
As someone said on Gold Derby, Parasite is going to have to go the Crash route to have any chance of winning BP.
Moonlight is also comparable. As long as it wins WGA, it’s going to remain in contention
And it also has a decent shot for Bong winning the DGA – he´s probably the only spoiler to Mendes, as it seems.
If 1917 won the PGA, I honestly don’t think anyone can beat Mendes at the DGA, and probably the BD Oscar.
No way Mendes is losing DGA.
I can see Parasite winning Picture + O Screenplay + IFF
I don’t see why 1917 not go on to win both BP and BD at the Oscars. If the race was only between Parasite and Once Upon A Time in Hollywood I could see them splitting the top 2 but as 1917 had won PGA, if it takes both at BAFTA it will repeat at AMPAS. It would emulate The Last Emperor and take a few tech awards as well. It didn’t need acting nominations just a big visual feast.
Well, that’s the race over and done with. Welcome to the Oscar Best Picture club 1917!
I wouldn’t look too much into the SAG Ensemble winner. 11/24 times the SAGE winner won the Best Picture. The PGA win for 1917 was far more relevant due to the preferential ballot system and the 70% accuracy.
SAG ensemble has become allot less important as far as predicting BP
On its own, you’re right. But it is a guild win, which makes one at least eligible to run for BP.
You’re right as well. You need to win at least the PGA, DGA, SAGE or WGA to get into the Best Picture conversation. Spotlight won the SAG over the PGA, and won Best Picture. It was though coupled with WGA win, and the Critics Choice win.
Yep, Ensemble =/= Picture. A lot of people forget that.
Tarantino lost whatever remaining support he may have had by acting like a drunken buffoon tonight.
Really? I didn’t hear about that
Me neither. What happened?
Nothing really. He introduced a clip from his film managing to be smart and entertaining as usual. He just loudly highlighted how weird it is to ask someone to blow his own horn.
lool
“…smart and entertaining as usual…”
Er, okay…
I think 1917 will win Best Pic, Directing, Cinematography.
I knew I would come out of the cinema having watched 1917 just now and kick myself. I had Joker down to win the PGA (with 1917 my second choice unseen). Now I can see why! Such an intense cinematic experience. So many emotions. And I’m in awe of the cinematography and direction here. Sam Mendes is one fo my favourite directors. What a master of his craft.
If I had one issue with this magnificent film, it is with the choreography of the lead actor’s journey mid way through. I felt like I knew what was coming a lot of the time. I enjoyed the pace though.
I would be happy to see 1917 prevail as the Best Picture winner this season.
Crunch time for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, The Irishman and Parasite.
If none of the three wins SAG Ensemble tonight, then 1917 is winning BP.
If one of the three wins SAG Ensemble (highly likely), we have a proper two-way race.
P.S. Perception-wise post – Golden Globe / Critics Choice / PGA, I have a hard time imagining Mendes not winning DGA and if that happens, the race is most likely over.
1917 is winning, Best Picture, Best Director, Best Cinematography…and much more
If it wins those three, I think it will semi-surprise in Score, as well. If a BP / BD winner isn’t strong enough to garner a 15-time nominee his long overdue and well-deserved first Oscar, I don’t know what is.
15 noms and another loss for Newman for his extraordinary score would be sad
If it wins those, then possibly a Sound and maybe Score?
I have a slightly different interpretation:
If Parasite wins SAG ensemble, we have a two way race, Once is done. SAG + WGA can be a very potent combination, enough to possibly defeat 1917.
If Once wins SAG ensemble, it will likely be a lone SAG winner and won’t win other major industry award, and if WGA then goes to Parasite, we have a uncertain situation, where Parasite can upset BP Moonlight style (with a lone WGA win and nothing else); alternatively If Once’s screenplay chance is somehow bigger than Parasite (we won’t know for sure), then Once can win the same way 12 years or Moonlight or Green Book did (Screenplay + Supporting acting + BP, but loses BD).
Now the reason I’m suspecting a BP upset, is due to 1917 being too similar to recent technical achievement directorial wins (Gravity, Life of Pi, The Revenant). If feels like something producers might want to promote but not necessarily all of industry.
Missing acting nom + missing editing nom + no nom at SAG whatsoever means it has several different hurdles to cross, this is not a simple sweep situation.
Except life of Pi and Revenant lost PGA. Big difference
Not that big of a difference, the fact that Gravity can tie PGA suggest that producers may favour “bigger, more epic” films and the votes could have been very very close.
1917 missed editing and acting nom, and did not have a single SAG nom, which PGA winner was in this situation before?
So now I guess all eyes are on SAG. The five film categories seem to be incredibly obvious (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Zellweger, Phoenix, Dern, Pittt) so I guess any deviation from that quintet would be a massive surprise at this point.
So … are we expecting any ? I’m not, not really. MAYBE in Ensemble but that’s about it.
I’m still predicting that Zellweger loses, but that’s almost irrelevant to the bigger picture.
And I think Hollywood is FAR from a done deal in Ensemble. It’s a competitive three-way between itself, Parasite and The Irishman. Jojo Rabbit might be a spoiler, but is really stats-invalid.
But will you concede Renée Zellweger is winning the Oscar if she wins SAG tonight?
She might be a very good prediction to win the Oscar, but I still won’t predict it because I just have this gut feeling that she won’t. I’m likely to be wrong, I know, but nothing I can do.
It won’t be The Irishman or Jojo Rabbit based on the conversations I’ve had with a NYC Oscar pundits who interviews hundreds of SAG voters.
I think the only surprise could be something other than OUATIH winning Ensemble. I think the shakiest frontrunner in acting is Lead Actress. Having said that, SAG loves Renee (she’s won twice already). ScarJo could upset if voters throw their support to her there instead of Jojo. But I thiiiink acting is looking solid.
I finally saw Judy and though Renee is fantastic, it is a terrible film. Makes The Wife look like Citizen Kane. That keeps ScarJo a remote possibility.
I don’t think Zellweger is in a shakey position. Actually, the acting categories seems more lock than ever. If Zellweger is shakey then one of her contenders should have taken over given the more recent screenings but it’s been Zellweger sinceTelluride. She’s also beloved in the industry and her transformation in Judy is more than just the surface of hair and make-up. She got this. Ia ma expecting the acting quarter to win the SAG.
You *really* believe that Hollywood is a lock for Best Cast?
Fuck yeah. Fuck, fuck yeah
YES! Got 1917 Right! Oh I am so happy about this! Between 1917 or Parasite. I knew there was a sort of “ok” feeling about Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood. Still, I am hearing divisive responses for the war film, but I am keeping it in my best picture/director predictions for now. I think Once Upon a Time in Hollywood wins Supporting Actor and (possibly) Original Screenplay. I see Parasite upsetting there though.
I think we are going to see some shake ups in other categories. I think Johansson is VERY competitive for Jojo Rabbit, and I have her winning the SAG tomorrow for supporting actress over Laura Dern. I had this hunch for Emily Blunt last year and got it. I also think Jojo Rabbit is winning Adapted Screenplay over The Irishman and Little Women. The latter of which I was disappointed. Whilst Saoirse Ronan was wonderful, I felt the script was messy and all over the place. It didn’t feel like these characters were interacting with each other; more so just talking over each other. The 1994 version is far superior in my book. Winona Ryder, Claire Danes, Kirsten Dunst, Susan Sarandon, Christian Bale, Trini Alvarado, Gabriel Byrne (!), and of course the always reliable Mary Wickes. Plus Thomas Newman’s score worked better. I know I am in the unpopular opinion since Gerwig’s film is fresher.
CURRENT OSCAR PREDICTIONS
Picture: 1917
Director: Sam Mendes, 1917
Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Actress: Renee Zellweger, Judy
Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Supporting Actress: Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Original Screenplay: Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
Adapted Screenplay: Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Cinematography: 1917
Production Design: Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood
Costume Design: Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood
Film Editing: Ford v Ferrari
International Film: Parasite
Makeup: Bombshell
Original Score: 1917, Thomas Newman
Song: “Stand Up”, Harriet
Sound Mixing: 1917
Sound Editing: 1917
Visual Effects: 1917
I’m starting to come around on ScarJo possibly upsetting in Supporting. Everyone loves Laura Dern. But I’m sorry, that’s not a role that makes you stretch. And ScarJo is nominated twice, and in a film that AMPAS likely enjoys more so than Marriage Story.
My only hesitation about switching 1917 to winning Best Picture right now is this. Yes, the SAG Best Cast statistic has been broken two years in a row. HOWEVER, the films that won Best Picture got other nominations at SAG. Shape of Water got nominations at SAG for Sally Hawkins and Richard Jenkins, and then Green Book got the nomination for Viggo Mortensen and the win for Mahershala Ali. 1917 has no nominations at all at SAG, which is a little disconcerting.
That’s a good point. The last two films to win Best Picture without any acting nominations actually won the SAG award for Best Cast (Return of the King and Slumdog Millionaire), so if 1917 wins Best Picture, it would be breaking a lot of stats.
Very true! And as I’ve said before, Hollywood is my favorite of the year, but 1917 is very close to the top and I would have no problem with it winning Best Picture.
Yes, no editing and no acting nom + zero SAG nom are pretty big hurdles to cross. If it wins, it’s going to be the most problematic winner stats wise in recently memory.
the only reason why 1917 has no Oscar performer nominations… is because how insanely packed the male categories were, and also because of how late the film was screened. I think that the lack of SAG and Oscar nominations for performers is completely irrelevant in this case.
You may be right, but still it could’ve gotten a Best Cast or Best Stunt Cast nomination. But you’re right, it could’ve been screeners going out too late. But don’t get me wrong, I now seriously think 1917 can win Best Picture. I mentioned it before as one of three possibilities, now it’s very strong.
Had it gotten the respective acting nominations at the Oscars, maybe – but it didn’t get them there or at the Globes or Critics Choice. So, most likely, it was never getting acting nominations at SAG, either, late screenings or not…
But I’ll be honest, even though Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is my favorite of 2019, it’s already guaranteed a major win for Brad Pitt winning Supporting Actor, and it’s looking incredibly strong for Quentin Tarantino to win Original Screenplay. If it can win at least one of those, I’ll be happy with just that and Best Picture can go to 1917.
Tarantino should have won for Inglorious Basterds, not for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood…
Well he has two right now, one for Pulp Fiction and the other for Django Unchained.
Oscar season just got boring now. 1917 gonna win everything. SAG ensemble won’t matter.
The “Oscar season just got boring” posts just got boring…
I was on the road coming from watching the McGregor fight. I missed all the other posts.
My apologies.
Ok, let’s examine the state of the race for Best Picture. It’s officially narrowed down to 1917 vs. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.
1917: Golden Globe (Drama), PGA
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood: Golden Globe (Comedy/Musical)
If OUATIH wins Best Cast at SAG tomorrow it’ll be pretty even.
If you’re basing it on that, Hollywood is out. Globe Comedy/Musical winner almost never wins Best Picture.
Green Book. And not just that, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood won the exact same three Golden Globes Green Book won. Best Comedy/Musical Film, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Screenplay.
This decade is VERY tight. Drama 3 x 2 Comedy.
Green Book. And not just that, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood won the exact same three Golden Globes Green Book won. Best Comedy/Musical Film, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Screenplay.
“Almost never,” I said. Look at the past several decades and count. And Hollywood is not Green Book.
Right, but my point of bringing Green Book up was it’s happened very recently.
Again: it has happened four times in 30 years, if I’m not mistaken. Not a great stat. There are others to use in combination with this one, but alone it’s a dud.
Parasite is still definitely a contender. It lost PGA but so did Hollywood and it didn’t contend in the Globe categories you’re looking at
Parasite has yet to win a top major precursor award. It would have to win Best Cast at SAG tonight to still be in the Best Picture conversation.
WGA is a top major precursor award (I’d say the ranking is: 1. PGA 2. WGA 3. DGA 4. SAG, perhaps even with PGA and WGA the other way around). And like Dominik said, Bong can still win DGA so we don’t know everything yet
Delighted. Absolutely delighted that 1917 has won the PGA award. This is exactly the type of distinguished film academy members used to prefer as recognising as the film world’s s best. It simply has the look and gravitas one associates with the Academy Award for best picture. And it has none of the decadent violence of the depressing Joker or Tarantino’s overly-praised Once Upon a Time. More and more 1917 reminds me of one of Sir David Lean’s superbly crafted, intelligent epics. There are scenes and sequences in 1917 as great as any ever filmed. It’s been decades since we’ve seen its like.
What does this mean for Oscar?
A big boost, but not a done deal. I love 1917, but it does feel like a film that takes Best Director in a Picture/Director split, like Gravity or The Revenant, a film that has a serviceable enough script and characters and delivers a breathtaking cinematic experience.
Thenagain, that may be why voters will want to give it Best Picture. This film is proof of why films need to be seen on the big screen, and they may want to reward that. And it did get an Oscar nomination for Original Screenplay (which Gravity and The Revenant didn’t, though Roma and La La Land did), so it could still happen (it would be the first Best Picture winner without acting nominations since Slumdog Millionaire)…
Yes, Gravity even won (tied) PGA, this could be a similar situation, there’s even a logical explanation why producers might want to promote a film like 1917. We just don’t know how close the votes were. If it was very close, there’s a real chance that the eventual original screenplay winner (Parasite or Once?) upset in BP, and 1917 gets BD, we have seen this scenario play out.
Anyone saying 1917 is locked for BP is saying it prematurely.
It’s all over but the shouting?
Or we might be looking at another PGA-Oscar mismatch
Somebody on Twitter says the PGA only matches Oscar Best Picture 67% of the time.
Yeah, but it’s more like 80% in the preferential era (not exactly 80% because one “match” was a tie), which is probably relevant…
Let’s start a petition for Best Picture to be presented by Dunaway and Beatty again.
Ah ah, let the longest, most convoluted title win!
They’re so cute together, they should be made presenters for life really, like Alain Delon who was made president for life of the Miss France jury until he was canceled for saying some stupid shit.
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood… we had a frontrunner hitting everything all season long. It’s been eight years since The Artist, the last true stat king, and seven since Argo did it all but the Directing nomination.
Once already missed editing, recently that has been a more troubling miss than Director, it seems.
I am fine with 1917 for PGA. It is my 5th favourite of the Oscar 9.
1917 is the first PGA winner with no SAG nominations since the Ensemble category began in 1995. So it’s now MUCH easier to get around the non acting stat.
That, plus the fact it lost the Editing nomination for the same reason Birdman lost, it’s officially the Best Picture frontrunner.
I know you said no SAG nominations but the big one we’ve always cared about is the SAG ensemble stat until the last 2 won PGA and Oscar without SAG ensemble. Though yes they both had at least 2 SAG individual nominations. Could this be the third in a row to do that and make SAG feel completely irrelevant? This time shattering the needs nominations stat with it? That would be interesting!
Yeah I think you’re right. If Hollywood wins Best Cast at SAG tomorrow, it’s still in the race. Especially if it’s now solidly out front to win Original Screenplay.
Yep, OUATIH really needs to win SAG now. Otherwise, it’ll be 100% dead.
But what if Parasite wins SAG? Doesn’t that mean it’s a real possible threat and a basic three way horse race? I mean look at Crash and Spotlight with their SAG ensemble wins and no one expected them to win Best Picture. I guess we’d have to keep our eye on BAFTA as well (even though their nominations weren’t as diverse as they should’ve been).
Yep, specially if it wins WGA as well.
Yes, most definitely. It’s the only other film aside from Once Upon a Time in Hollywood that can win Best Cast at SAG.
The NYPost gives an interesting article why Jlo, Eddie Murphy et al didn’t get noms. Go to the NYPost and google
Academy members viciously reveal why Lopez, Sandler, Murphy got snubbed from Oscars
The New York Post is a racist Murdoch rag.
It’s about how they perceive the actor, not how they perceive the performance.
What an inspired choice… ecstatic here. Hollywood is always in a circle of life.
The 2000s begin with Sam Mendes winning BP.
The 2010s with a war movie winning BP.
The 2020s with a Sam Mendes’ war movie winning BP.
It’s already true for PGA. It might be true for Oscars.
American Beauty is a masterpiece…
One of film twitter regular activities… trash this masterpiece.
And Roger Deakins is better than Lubezki…
I LOVE 1917, and I’m thrilled for it! I’ve made it clear Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is my favorite of the year, but still 1917 is one the few movies of 2019 I gave a 10/10 score.
PGA sends Parasite to the edge of the abyss. And SAG may just push it over the edge.
Hunch… everybody wants to work with Taika and SAG votes Jojo Rabbit for Ensemble.
I’ve talked to a good friend of mine who’s an Oscar pundit in NYC, and he interviews hundreds of SAG voters every year. This year he told me it’s either going to be OUATIH, which has the solid edge, or Parasite. No other film has a chance. In fact, he told me Jojo Rabbit has the least chance of winning.
Just keep his grubby mitts off the next Star Trek movie and I’ll be happy.
Holding hands with Once if neither wins SAG.
So what’s the Moonlight to 1917’s La La Land?
I still think one of the OG three: Parasite, Hollywood, The Irishman.
1917 is both Moonlight and La La Land
Not according to nominations it ain’t.
Sigh. Think twice
No acting nominations
No SAG nominations
No editing nomination
No ACE nomination
No Globes Screenplay nomination
No BAFTA Screenplay nomination
I thought twice. Still no.
this.
Parasite. But 1917 won’t suffer the backlash La La Land had, and the claim for more Asian diversity isn’t half as strong as the OscarsSoWhite was in 2016. Also, Parasite is foreign.
OUATIH last movie to be presented. Good sign?
Edit: no
Is it OUATH or OUATIH what are the rules for ridiculous acronyms?
It’s whatever you want. We understand both of them.
The rule is whatever the Internet decides it is I think OUATIH is the most common but people will understand both!
it would be a bad sign, hahaha
Nope
Isn’t it just in alphabetical order?
PGA following in ACE’s footsteps so far: Apollo 11, Toy Story 4, Chernobyl, Fleabag…
And still screwing up Animated movie.
How so? Toy Story 4 is fantastic.
Toy Story is by far the best reviewed animated film nominated this year. In some alternative reality Missing Link has superior storytelling. But not in ours.
Yeah, Missing Link doesn’t quite stick its landing.
TS4 was a cash grab. Frozen II was that rarest of sequels that out-earned the original. And it is getting f’d over left and right. Annies and BAFTA are the last chances for justice.
Succession just broke the streak.
McGregor won within a minute.
Edit: [Mixed Martial Arts spoiler. Don’t look if you don’t want to know who won a fight tonight.] – Ryan
uhhhh, spoilers asshole
Really? It was 20 minutes ago.
First time using the internet? You think people on a movie website are expecting to see a spoiler for a sporting event…. get a clue
McGregor transcends all types of websites.
I do not know who McGregor is… and actually not interested?
I’m assuming it’s Ewan, and well – good for him.
Chus, from which part of Spain are you? I lived there….
I was born in Melilla, a Spanish town in Northern Africa (yes, I am African) and I live in Torremolinos, Málaga (almost opposite) but I am moving soon to Germany to live with my partners, will acquire german nationality whenever available, we are just holding my moving till our landlord give them permission so we can have my dog there in the house in the village. I drop my job here and start a new life (some people here knows me for years but probably didn’t know I became widowed 2 years ago)
Now I understand your love for your countryman Banderas, good luck for him! Beat Parasite!
well, I am not a big Banderas fan (acting abilities wise, the man is really down to earth and sympathetic) till The Skin I live in and specially this Pain & Glory… but it is true that he has been Awards worthy plenty of times (4 times with Almodovar, and also he has 5 Globes noms and 1 Tony nom, and also 1 or 2 Emmy noms… does he have also a Grammy nom, for Evita or Nine recordings?)
What’s really weird is that Spaniards are not proud of their own movies…they are 100% Hollywood…I lived in Alicante and Barcelona…
I saw 1917 last weekend, it needs to be seen in a theater, absolutely stunning. I have a feeling I’m finally not gonna be disappointed with the Best Picture winner this year. All the films are pretty phenomenal really.
So all the people saying 1917 will win Best Pic, does that mean it will win Original Screenplay as well?
You don’t need screenplay to win picture – Shape of Water was the most recent to do it and that was only a couple of years ago. You need either screenplay or director that is for sure but you don’t need screenplay of you have director. This does mean 1917 needs to win Director though, which is increasingly looking likely but I’d wait until at least DGA to call it.
The Fish Fucker movie had a crappy screenplay. No surprise there.
I strongly disagree but it was more of a directing achievement than writing… Regardless the point is if you are winning director you don’t necessarily need screenplay
I didn’t feel any connection to any characters the acting did most of the heavy lifting. Also how stupid was it that the lady slept on a uncomfortable couch buy yourself a bed.
I think we can declare 1917 now the new BP frontrunner because the path doesn’t look great for OUATIH. It lost Eddie and PGA, not eligible for WGA, DGA is improbable, BAFTA is improbable, SAG is probable but a lone SAG winner hasn’t won BP before (though there’s always a first time)
1917 is a weak front-runner though, not nominated for either Acting AND Editing plus no SAG ensemble nomination. The movie feels too much like one of those Tech director wins (Revenant, Life of Pi, Gravity), thus I feel it can still lose BP La La Land Style.
What makes Parasite a good movie?
You can’t compare it to anything else. It’s dramatic, it’s comical, it’s WTF… and it’s deep.
Most of what Pablo Alvarez wrote about 1917 in his comment right after/before this one can be directly applied to Parasite.
Everything about it.
lack of acronyms makes parasite a good movie
Quick answer: Everything.
I have someone hidden on my basement and nobody knows it…
That explains how you seem to have been eating for two. 😉
Now my hope is on Bong taking that DGA from Mendes, but I guess that´s some wishful thinking… 😉
1917 may be surging, but I still have hope that my favorite will capture SAG and stay in the race. That said, I also have fear that my least favorite might do the same…
1917 is an absolute masterpiece. It deserves to win BP at the Oscars. I’d dare to say that this is a movie that it’s going to have an impact on cinema history, the same way Kubrick’s 2001 had. It just presents itself as a new way of making and experiencing cinema. It is not only incredible from a technical point of view, something we’ve never seen before; it’s also emotionally shocking, touches deep on so many themes: fear, compassion, trauma… it’s a movie that stays with you long after you’ve seen it. It’s been a long time that a movie had me lost for words like this one. I used to think “The thin red line” was the best war movie ever made. Now it has a deserved companion.
Ah… My unpopular opinion. Agree with everything you wrote but the one sentence before last. Always thought The Thin Red Line is overlong and full of reflexive dialogues that seem those speeches teachers speak in meditation classes. Pretentious but so flat… But it’s tremendous to look at. And of course this and Elizabeth and Life is Beautiful will be forever on my bad list for taking Brazil’s deserving Foreign Language Oscar and The Truman Show BP nomination.
Agreed on every word.
There a reason with respect film you attach your commentary to for 1917 is frankly influenced in large parts by film style minus graphic shock necessary factor 1917 should have had to ramp up drama beyond spectacular cinematography you know why you received mixed response to your post? Everything you describe goes to the definitive war film which raised the bar in war genre no not 1917 sorry to say Saving Private Ryan is all u describe and more. If only 1917 made it 3/4 of impact of Spielberg masterpiece.
I still strongly feel 1917 should edited out esp loong build up to first sort of form of drama in trenches for our 2 characters and frankly the scene underground in ruins should been less of screen time. During journey there no excuse at qllwhatsoever 1917 could really whacked the audience with some true horrific imagery that only delivered half way to audiences and half level realism film audiences expect of war movies.
There every chance one hopes but doesn’t expect that the half measure stakes and drama value of moments could let down 1917 come Oscar for best pic. It happened before number times film wins pga and filmmakers left to ponder ‘ “did we push dramatic moments depth these moments exploit them to make them unforgettable to audiences ” no thr y did not sadly for 1917.
I felt film was edited in wrong places , scenes cut focus too quickly where shouldn’t have this is exactly why this is NOT Mendes best film. That goes to his heroic effort bring genre he barely specialised in and effectively elevated the entire franchise to stratospheric heights skyfall which had more depth, colour, range of drama and realistic levels intensity and truly memorable scenes . Much more so than 1917. To be honest.
Dont get me wrong I liked ,1917 . but let’s not over do it . , ” a new way of making and experiencing cinema ” ” something we’ve never seen before “. ,Comparing it to 2001 . Really? All Quiet on the Western Front , Paths of Glory and Lawrence of Arabia those are masterpieces about World War One. if 1917 wins I’m OK with that it’s certainly better than The Irishman . It touches on themes like fear , compassion and trauma . Have you seen King and Country and Johnny Got His Gun ?
I felt like the film is following the same topics we´ve seen in quite many war movies before. In a technical way, it´s impressive, especially the cinematography and the production design, but what groundbreaking has this film to say about war? It´s not that the (pretty thin) story of the young hero following his mission against all odds and – of course – prevailing in the end has never been seen before?
Apart from that, those plot holes and illogical and implausible scenes (like he somehow miraculous escapes from every bullet being shot at him) kept me from participate emotionally in the film.
I respect that you liked it that much, but your praise seems a bit over the top.
Hit pieces coming next…
1. It’s too white.
2. It has no big role for woman.
3. Sam Mendes blah blah blah. American Beauty didn’t deserve to win.
What are your predictions?
Curious that for some “protégés” those hit pieces never happen. Let’s see if 1917 is bulletproof. I hope so…
I predict many posts and comments predicting hit pieces…
For the ones who are fans of this film, it’s our duty to make this people feel ridiculous even before those pieces start.
A lot of British woman and black soldiers fought in World War I, did they? 😉
Yeah…
Lot of women lived in Italy in the 80s. Not an issue for Call me By Your Name.
Female soldiers fought in Iraq. Not an issue for The Hurt Locker.
Women exist. Not issue for Life of Pi.
Women exist. Not an issue for There will Be Blood.
Black people exist. Not an issue for Little Women.
Black people exist. Not an issue for The Favourite.
I could go on forever taking Film Twitter’s greatest loves of all.
There were black people in Little Women.
At least one of the soldiers in the film is Indian.
Hit pieces really don’t matter. I usually ignore or skim them. A woman has a powerful emotional impact as well as the ones in letters and photos. The people of color were dying In the colonies before, during, and after the war. Armenians, Assyrians, and Greeks were victims of Turkish genocide. Imperialism and greed were the cause of the war.
Ahah I knew it. 1917 picking up steam for BD and BP in 3 weeks!
So Parasite may just have to “settle” for winning the Palme d’or and the Oscar for international film.
So Parasite may just have to “settle” for winning the Palme d’or and the Oscar for international film.
It has to win SAG and WGA. That’s a powerful combo.
SAG and WGA is a borderline winning combo; even just WGA alone can sometimes work (Moonlight). Just SAG alone hasn’t worked so far, but with Once not eligible for WGA, we’ll see if the screenplay is strong enough to take the Oscar.
Well at least that’s the end of Jojo Rabbit’s prospects of winning Best Picture. You miss a Director nomination at the Oscar, you must win the PGA. Thank god PGA didn’t go for Jojo Rabbit. It’s a well made movie, but it’s BY FAR the worst of the Best Picture lineup.
… at all. Jojo might win Adapted at the Oscars and then jump to Best Picture. The only film that can defeat the gravitas of 1917 is Jojo Rabbit.
Nope. A few things are in it’s way. I just mentioned you need the PGA win if you miss Best Director, that’s what Driving Miss Daisy, Argo, and Green Book had. 2nd, no film has won Best Picture after being snubbed for Best Film at the BAFTAs.
BAFTA only has 5 nominees, not 10, but did well in other categories. Given how packed this year is… I wouldn’t consider it a problem big enough.
Remember… the OSCAR films of the nominees are 1917 and Ford v Ferrari, maybe Little Women too. 1917 is the obvious winner among the three. The Irishman and Once upon a Time, also may fall in this category but they are already derrailed, first one because of the Netflix factors and the latter, less obviously, because is consistently losing to 1917 or Jojo Rabbit.
For defeating it, you either need a Moonlight (Parasite) or a Green Book (Jojo Rabbit). Parasite is taking International film, so that leaves us with Jojo.
So, the Best Picture seems to be like this, at this point…
1. 1917
2. Jojo Rabbit
3. Once upon a Time
4. Parasite
5. The Irishman
6. Joker
7. Ford v Ferrari
8. Little Women
9. Marriage Story
Consistently losing to Jojo Rabbit?! Once Upon a Time in Hollywood beat Jojo Rabbit at the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice. Not that they vote for the Oscars, but it’s an untrue statement that Jojo has consistently been prevailing over Hollywood.
those are critics groups, not the industry. Industry votes for Oscars, and Hollywood lost to Jojo the Eddie. Taika’s snub at Director at the Oscar is completely compensated by his DGA nom and his Adapted Screenplay nom at the Oscars. Remember, DGA is more important for Best Picture than for Oscar Best Director.
With all due respect my friend, you’ve taken the critics groups way more seriously than I have this year and last year. Ok, one loss to Jojo Rabbit at the Eddies, not a huge deal. Let’s see what happens at SAG tomorrow. There’s no hope for Jojo Rabbit if it loses Best Cast at SAG tomorrow, because then there won’t be any Best Picture prize left for it to win before the Oscars. I’m certain 1917 is winning the BAFTA, but if OUATIH wins Best Cast at SAG, it’s certainly in contention.
remember… critics put the ball rolling and the names to consider.
guilds dictate sentence.
different phases.
the only difference with SAG is… whoever wins it, jumps to #2 in this race after 1917.
However, at Screenplay, Jojo is fighting Joker and The Irishman at the Oscars. While Parasite, 1917 and Hollywood are fighting each other with an unclear winner… Jojo is more likely to win Adapted while we just do not really know how Original is going to be… Director seems to go to Mendes, so one of the Screenplay winners will come out at play to be the alternate winner… if Parasite wins Original, it is winning International so it does not win BP. if 1917 wins Original, game set and match (it is the least likely win, thought it would be deserved). If Hollywood wins, they can easily just repeat Inglorious Basterds and have the film win Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay and call it a day, as 1917 might be sweeping the technicals and Director. That leaves us with the Adapted winner as the most likely to upset at Best Picture, and that has to be a feel good film opposite to 1917’s gravitas… our Green Book, our The King’s Speech… and that is, quite obviously, Jojo.
If I had to bet, I would be betting for 1917 to sweep. And then a little money on Jojo to win Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted just in case.
Ahhhhh, I see what you mean now. Still, the race now is 1917 vs. whatever wins Best Cast tomorrow. Unless Bombshell miraculously wins, then I think the race might be officially over.
yes, but remember… Jojo does NOT need to win SAG to be still the second option, because it is the film that stands out as a crowdpleaser
But Jojo Rabbit failed tonight to prevail on the preferential ballot. La La Land was a HUGE crowdpleaser, me included, I LOVE that movie. But the Oscars showed that it failed to prevail on the preferential ballot.
Jojo was never going to defeat 1917 in an award voted by producers for a single reason… moderate b.o. and mixed reviews.
Oscar is completely different. A completely different game.
No way Jojo wins Adapted over Irishman or Little Women.
*comfortably sits and waits*
Netflix has some sort of curse here, we all thought that The Irishman was going to sweep all precursors…But 1917 is a jewel…well deserved.
both Masterpieces but The Irishman has against…
1) Netflix
2) Over 3 hours long
3) The Capital Sin of not using body doubles for action scenes for De Niro, specially.
How many actors have lost an Academy Award after a bad speech at the Globes?
They don’t affect it that much. If you watch Emma Stone’s SAG and BAFTA speech from a couple years ago, they were all over the place. Same with Sam Rockwell’s Globe and SAG speech. And they both still won Oscars in their respective years.
Some people are speculating that Phoenix can lose the Oscar after delivering an awful speech at the Globes…
Actually, in a Gold Derby poll, his speech was ranked 2nd best speech of the night behind Michelle Williams. And people understand that he has social anxiety that he developed from his childhood, so no one is going to deny him the Oscar because of that.
not after an awful speech (it can be understandable and even relating, that you give a bad speech because you are genuinely emoted) but because he really looked under the influence, whcih could be seen as a disrespect and also a picture nobody would like to see at Oscar night.
He doesn’t drink anymore, the death of his brother River from an overdose really shook him. He grew up with a social anxiety developed from childhood, that’s what you were seeing on stage, nothing alcohol related. What you see on stage, he’s just like that, that’s his personality, and no one will hold that against him.
He doesn’t drink anymore, the death of his brother River from an overdose really shook him. He grew up with a social anxiety developed from childhood, that’s what you were seeing on stage, nothing alcohol related. What you see on stage, he’s just like that, that’s his personality, and no one will hold that against him.
did you know that River Phoenix was publicly anti-drugs? I can understand he could be anxious (odd given his profession, isn’t it?) in public, but I just watched twice his speech and he REALLY looked under the influence of some substance (probably alcohol) and remember it was the Globes, were you wait at a table with drinks. I understand people wants Joaquin to win, at last (I would have probably given him one for Her) and I know he could be virtually unstoppable right now (specially given he is now likely to win SAG and BAFTA in a row), but I can’t help but wonder, specially given it is not me, who you would have to convince that he wasn’t drunk. And probably you shouldn’t even try to convince anyone (because it would have the contrary effect). I think his publicists are doing just fine about his akward Globes speech, specially following an arrest along Martin Sheen, as an activist, something that will probably look positive in voting time.
Can’t remember any.
Eddie Murphy lost one because of Norbit.
Russell Crowe lost one because of the shit he did in the BAFTA weekend as far as I remember.
they even lose it (Close) after a good speech, so… a bad speech can really kill chances.
So now if Hollywood wins sag ensemble which is the frontrunner at the oscars? 1917 or hollywood?
But imagine if it doesn’t. It’s not winning BAFTA. And WGA… ineligible.
when a film is ineligible for an Award, not winning it, doesn´t affect its Oscar chances at all.
But it’s one less speech and more of the perception that it’s in a downward path.
But I think it kind of does, no SAG lone winner has won Oscar BP ,but the best outcome Once can now hope for, is a lone SAG win (barring a DGA upset, which I highly doubt). 3BB only won SAG was not eligible for WGA so people assumed it would win screenplay, when the WGA winner (Get out) does win the Oscars, it was over for 3BB. Could be the same for Once.
you forget Get Out was a masterpiece of a screenplay, with plenty of analysis being done about it, about how much allegories and subtext it had, on the internet, while 3BB was facing criticism at the same time (and deservingly so).
On Original, I think QT is winning his 3rd Oscar for Original (even thought he does not deserve it this time around, if you ask me), and right there the “owe” to Hollywood stops. It will win Supporting Actor. Production Design too, if lucky (but that would be a joke, 1917’s really has to win, because of the logistical nightmare of the challenge).
The summary being… 1917 seems like the film that sweeps, like The English Patient, Gladiator, Titanic, Return of the King and so on… to defeat it in a La La Land way, you need either a critical darling (Moonlight) which Marriage Story can’t be (it barely arrived to BP, exhausted) or a complete opposite which Jojo Rabbit is… despite being also a war film at core.
So my opinion is… 1917 sweeps. If not, Jojo Rabbit wins. If not Once upon a Time. If not, Parasite. If not, The Irishman. If not, the Joker. I do not see anything with a chance, beyond them… but only 1 to 3 wouldn´t shock me.
Yes.
Mmm..i think it surely will win SAG ensemble. There’s no way 1917 is winning at SAG without one single acting nomination and the others? Joker is phoenix vs everybody so there is no way. Marriage Story? It was snubbed in all the ceremonies, so no way. The only ones that can compete with hollywood are irishman and Parasite but it’s hard for them.
Mendes is 100% winning DGA now.
1917 is going to sweep the Oscars. If they watch it at theaters. There is really NO competition, sorry.
1917
welp
Uh oh…
Woah. Still haven’t seen it but that’s definitely making for a weird season. We will likely have 4 different winners this weekend (Parasite and Jojo yesterday, 1917 today and Once tomorrow?)
It’s almost done now
Which film actually SHOULD win (by logic)… 1917
It is the biggest challenge of the year, it is not a gimmick (the long take is completely justified due to the film’s intention to get you in the skin of a soldier in the middle of the horror) and it is paying off as any Producer would love.
Is Apollo 11 really a documentary though?
Apollo 11 isn’t just a documentary.
Apollo 11 is history.
It was dope! But it wasn’t a documentary.
Why is it not a documentary? I new because its archival footage? But why does that stop it being a documentary – asking out of genuine curiosity rather than because you are wrong (I don’t know the reasoning).
It’s because all it was was just archival footage in the order it was recorded. There was no real “movie work” involved other than remastering the footage.
Tell that to the crew that put it together.
But didn’t they have tons of footage and they remastered then cut down a bunch of footage? It isn’t like they just picked up the footage, arranged it sequentially and released it.
Leaving Neverland is fiction and a disaster of a production. Somebody got money for this voting
Yes, almost every aspect of the film is conjecture and speculation on the part of a very irresponsible filmmaker, with almost no journalistic integrity. The alleged victims have little-to-no credibility, and in fact much has been revealed through real investigative reporting that the alleged victims both have tremendous financial incentive and need for profiting off this potentially lucrative “tell all”. If there is any truth to what these alleged victims say, it does not reveal itself at all in the Leaving Neverland movie.
PS – I hate the title Leaving Neverland because it creates an association/confusion with Finding Neverland, which was a beautiful film that will now appear in online searches forever associated with this trashy, tabloid-like documentary posing as a serious portrait of child sexual abuse. Hopefully unfamiliar viewers see Johnny Depp and Kate Winslet’s names before dismissing/confusing Finding Neverland with Leaving Neverland.
Non-Fiction TV: Leaving Neverland
Isn’t that Fiction tv?
J/k
It has started. Hope in 2 hrs we know the BP Oscar winner.
Please everything but Parasite…
Disqus is fixed now so that downvotes are no longer anonymous. It’s better this way.
Presenters: Jane Fonda, Lily Tomlin, Melissa McCarthy, Ben Falcone, Frances McDormand, Al Pacino, Robert De Niro, Taika Waititi, Kate Beckinsale, Don Johnson, Laura Dern, Greta Gerwig, Caitriona Balfe, Zazie Beetz, Choi Woo-shik, Constance Wu, Jared Harris, Rachel Brosnahan, Eva Longoria, Billy Eichner, Nick Kroll, Zoey Deutch, Kaitlyn Dever, Yayha Abdul-Mateen II, Judith Light.
Red Carpet awards announced
Children’s: Sesame Street
Sports: What’s My Name? Muhammad Ali
Short Form: Comedians in Cars Drinking Coffee
4. PGA Innovation
5. Game/Competition TV
6. Live Entertainment/Talk Show
7. Non-Fiction TV
8. Streamed/Televised Movie
9. Limited Series
10. Comedy Series
11. Drama Series
12. Animated Film
13. Documentary
14. Theatrical Film
Special Awards:
Milestone: Ted Sarandos
David O. Selznick Achievement Award in Theatrical Motion Pictures); Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner of Plan B
Norman Lear Achievement Award in Television: Marta Kauffman
Visionary: Octavia Spencer
Stanley Kramer Award: Cast of Bombshell