If you’re interested in betting on this year’s Oscar race, it is going to be a wild ride, I can assure you. Although many people believe they know how this race will go, there are still various scenarios that could play out regardless.
Over at Sports Betting Dime, their odds favor 1917, then Parasite, then Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. The Best Director odds are in a similar order, with Sam Mendes at the top, followed by Bong Joon Ho and then Quentin Tarantino.
In terms of stats, the DGA winner has always come from either the Globe or the PGA. In this case, both would point to Mendes.
2009: Kathryn Bigelow — PGA
2010: Tom Hooper — PGA
2011: Michel Hazanavicius — PGA
2012: Ben Affleck — Globe and PGA
2013: Alfonso Cuaron — Globe and PGA
2014: Alejandro G. Inarritu — PGA
2015: Alejandro G. Inarritu — Globe and PGA
2016: Damien Chazelle — Globe and PGA
2017: Guillermo del Toro — Globe and PGA
2018: Alfonso Cuaron — Globe and PGA
There has never been a year in the last ten that the DGA winner didn’t come from at least one or the other. That’s your stat lesson for the day.
If you’d like to go back further, you could probably do that:
2008: Danny Boyle — Globe and PGA
2007: Joel and Ethan Coen — PGA
2006: Martin Scorsese — Globe
2005: Ang Lee — Globe and PGA
2004: Clint Eastwood — Globe
2003: Peter Jackson — Globe and PGA
2002: Rob Marshall — PGA
2001: Ron Howard — neither Globe nor PGA
2000: Ang Lee — Globe
But it has been a stat-busting year in terms of the films in the race and the factors at play. And in the case of Parasite, it is catching a last minute wind, but so is 1917. 1917 has made a whopping $81 million so far. That is incredible for what amounts to an art movie. The way it would ordinarily work is that the awards would split, with 1917 winning Best Director along with a bunch of crafts and a movie like, say, Parasite or Once Upon a Time winning in Best Picture. In the era of the preferential ballot, the win is less the passionate, polarizing choice and more the film everybody likes and no one hates. But this year it could be reversed, with perhaps Bong Joon Ho winning in Best Director and 1917 taking picture. But then wouldn’t Parasite have won the Globe or PGA?