DGA nominees:
Feature Film
Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
First Feature
Mati Diop, Atlantics
Alma Har’el, Honey Boy
Melina Matsoukas, Queen & Slim
Tyler Nilson & Michael Shwartz, The Peanut Butter Falcon
Joe Talbot, The Last Black Man in San Francisco
Documentary
Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert, American Factory
Feras Fayyad, The Cave
Alex Holmes, Maiden
Ljubomir Stefanov & Tamara Kotevska, Honeyland
Nanfu Wang and Jialing Zhang, One Child Nation
Comedy Series
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, “It’s the Sixties, Man!” (Prime Video)
Bill Hader, Barry, “ronny/lily,” (HBO)
Veep, “Veep,” (HBO)
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, “It’s Comedy or Cabbage,” (Prime Video)
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, “Marvelous Radio,” (Prime Video)
Dramatic Series
Nicole Kassell, Watchmen, “It’s Summer and We’re Running Out of Ice,” (HBO)
Mark Mylod, Succession, “This Is Not For Tears,” (HBO)
David Nutter, Game of Thrones, “The Last of the Starks,” (HBO)
Miguel Sapochnik, Game of Thrones, “The Long Night,” (HBO)
Stephen Williams, Watchmen, “This Extraordinary Being,” (HBO)
Movies for Television, Limited Series
Ava DuVernay, When They See Us
Vince Gilligan, El Camino: A Breaking Bad Movie
Thomas Kail, Fosse/Verdon, “Nowadays”
Johan Renck, Chernobyl
Minkie Spiro, Fosse/Verdon, “All I Care About Is Love”
Jessica Yu, Fosse/Verdon, “Glory”
Commercials:
Spike Jonze for Dream It, Squarespace
Variety/Talk/News/Sports – Specials:
James Burrows and Andy Fisher, Live in Front of a Studio Audience Norman Lear’s ‘All in the Family’ and ‘The Jeffersons’
Variety/Talk/News/Sports – Regularly Scheduled
Don Roy King, Saturday Night Live, “E. Murphy; Lizzo”
Scripter Nominees:
FILM
Dark Waters, Matthew Carnahan and Mario Correa, “The Lawyer Who Became DuPont’s Worst Nightmare” by Nathaniel Rich
The Irishman, Steven Zaillian, I Heard You Paint Houses by Charles Brandt
Jojo Rabbit, Taika Waititi, Caging Skies by Christine Leunens
Little Women, Greta Gerwig, Louisa May Alcott
The Two Popes, Anthony McCarten, based on his play The Pope
TELEVISION
Fleabag, Phoebe Waller-Bridge, one-woman play of the same name
Fosse/Verdon, Joel Fields and Steven Levenson, “Nowadays,” based on the biography Fosse by Sam Wasson
Killing Eve, Emerald Fennell, “Nice and Neat,” based on the novel Codename Villanelle by Luke Jennings
Unbelieveable, Susannah Grant, Michael Chabon and Ayelet Waldman, for the first episode, based on the article “An Unbelievable Story of Rape” by T. Christian Miller and Ken Armstrong
Watchmen, Damon Lindelof and Cord Jefferson for the episode “This Extraordinary Being,” based on the comic book series by Alan Moore and Dave Gibbons
American Society of Cinematographers nominees:
Feature Film
Roger Deakins, ASC, BSC for 1917
Phedon Papamichael, ASC, GSC for Ford v Ferrari
Rodrigo Prieto, ASC, AMC for The Irishman
Robert Richardson, ASC for Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Lawrence Sher, ASC for Joker
Documentary
Fejmi Daut and Samir Ljuma for Honeyland
Evangelia Kranioti for Obscuro Barroco
Nicholas de Pencier for Anthropocene: The Human Epoch
Motion Picture, Miniseries, or Pilot Made for Television
John Conroy, ISC for The Terror: Infamy “A Sparrow in a Swallow’s Nest”
P.J. Dillon, ISC for The Rook “Chapter 1”
Chris Manley, ASC for Doom Patrol “Pilot”
Martin Ruhe, ASC for Catch-22 “Episode 5”
Craig Wrobleski, CSC for The Twilight Zone “Blurryman”
Episode of a Series for Non-Commercial Television
David Luther for Das Boot “Gegen die Zeit”
M. David Mullen, ASC for The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel “Simone”
Chris Seager, BSC for Carnival Row “Grieve No More”
Brendan Steacy, CSC for Titans “Dick Grayson”
Colin Watkinson, ASC, BSC for The Handmaid’s Tale “Night”
Episode of a Series for Commercial Television
Dana Gonzales, ASC for Legion “Chapter 20”
C. Kim Miles, CSC, MySC for Project Blue Book “The Flatwoods Monster”
Polly Morgan, ASC, BSC for Legion “Chapter 23”
Peter Robertson, ISC for Vikings “Hell”
David Stockton, ASC for Gotham “Ace Chemicals”
Spotlight Award
Jarin Blaschke for The Lighthouse
Natasha Braier, ASC, ADF for Honey Boy
Jasper Wolf, NSC for Monos
ASC International Award:
Bruno Delbonnel, ASC, AFC
ASC Lifetime Achievement Award
Frederick Elmes, ASC
Cinema Audio Society Nominees:
Motion Picture — Live Action
“Ford v Ferrari”
“Joker”
“Once Upon a Time in… Hollywood”
“Rocketman”
“The Irishman”
Motion Picture — Animated
“Abominable”
“Frozen II”
“How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World”
“The Lion King”
“Toy Story 4”
Motion Picture — Documentary
“Apollo 11”
“Echo in the Canyon”
“Making Waves: The Art of Cinematic Sound”
“Miles Davis: Birth of the Cool”
“Woodstock: 3 Days That Changed Everything”
Television Series — 1 hour
“Game of Thrones: The Bells”
“Peaky Blinders: Mr. Jones”
“Stranger Thing: Chapter Eight: The Battle of Starcourt”
“The Handmaid’s Tale: Heroic”
“Tom Clancy’s Jack Ryan: Persona Non Grata”
Television Series — 1/2 hour
“Barry: ronny/lily”
“Fleabag: Episode #2.6”
“Modern Family: A Year of Birthdays”
“Russian Doll: The Way Out”
“Veep: Veep Episode 707”
Television Movie or Limited Series
“Apollo: Missions to the Moon”
“Chernobyl: 1:23:45” — Winner
“Deadwood: The Movie”
“El Camino: A Breaking Bad Movie”
“True Detective: The Great War and Modern Memory”
Television Non-Fiction, Variety or Music Series or Specials
“Country Music: Will the Circle Be Unbroken? (1968-1972)”
“David Bowie: Finding Fame”
“Deadliest Catch: Sixty Foot Monster Episode 1512”
“Formula 1: Drive to Survive: The Next Generation”
“Hitsville: The Making of Motown”
Way too many guild awards. I like the first time director awards but they have the emmys for TV awards.
And the Oscars for movies…
Sam Mendes will have more Oscars than Scorsese, Hitchcock, and Kubrick
Yeah what about It? Oscar wins are all about timing and the depth of competition. He’ll also have more than Chaplin, Keaton, Preston Sturges, Wilder, Coppola and Borzage among others.
Funny enough, Kubrick has also made a WW1 drama, but one of the kind that wasn´t as easy to consume as the one Mendes did. And Kubrick did also have much more to say than just “war is cruel”.
Paths to Glory is great in its own way but especially with the technical achievements of 1917 this is completely apples and oranges.
I don’t think anyone’s awarding Mendes an Oscar for his thematic content. Best director is more about technical achievements like Roman Polanski with Pianist or Alfonso Cuaron in Gravity or Alejandro Inarritu with Birdman or The Revenant.
I think it also had something to say about restrained masculinity, restrained britishness, friendship and bureaucracy. The soldiers were sheep in the last arc and thematically the way they march after the wayfaring soldier.
I just wished, beyond it´s technical achievement – which I don´t question – 1917 had a bit more substantial to say about the Great War, or would have introduced more complex characters and not just cliché types. And I wished the story wouldn´t have felt like a rehash of the old familiar ingredients of Hollywood war movies.
And of course you can compare one filmographic study about war with another one. No matter if the newer one has more modern technical achievements. It´s about ideas, isn´t it?
(edit: just saying, Sunny, that downvote didn´t come from me, I never downvote other comments)
I don’t mind the downvote, I would prefer substantial discussion about film to upvotes anyway, so bravo.
I think what 1917 did was extraordinary. It makes you aware of the power of cinametography in a film in a way I’m not sure I’ve seen in recent memory. The technology wasn’t around in Kubrick’s time and and the focus on technical achievement wasn’t something Kubrick strived for, so that makes comparison a lot more difficult than say Bridge on the River Kwai and Paths of Glory which are both more character driven.
I do believe the character journey on this one is an epic one but it really wouldn’t be anything without the technology: Us feeling Scofield’s exhaustion minute by minute.
So that’s why I’m hesitant to compare both these films.
That’s what I wish as well! 🙂
Also, we can now see who downvoted. 🙂 Ryan let us know a while ago.
Big deal. He’s also a very good theater director.
Also, Robert Benton and Woody Alvedson have one competitive directing oscar each which is more than Altman, Kubrick, Hitchcock, and Lumet and those guys have some of the most unremarkable careers imaginable. Also, can we take back Hooper’s Oscar after Cats came out.
Well I guess its over.
If the academy has no foreign language category, it would be a tighter race.
Ok. Now the next important event:
Who do think is going to win the Royal Rumble?
I’m rooting for Kofi Kingston.
Is that the world championship in Bingo or what?
Nah. Winner gets a championship shot at WrestleMania.
That’s like the Oscars of pro-wrestling.
I don’;t know the answer to that but here one for you- my Aussie rules football club Melbourne football club has worst draw imaginable for round 1 anyway at start of our football season- we play a recent and former 2- time premiership interstate team – interstate at their home ground- West Coast Bloody Eagles- damn good team and we coming off a disastrous campaign where we were by far MOSTunderperformed team in competition when many expected at start of season us win premiership after our solid years improvement of rebuilding..
so? who you think gonna win based on what i said here? West Coast or Melbourne?:P dont worry i will not track you down and give you a flogging cos i can’t afford a flight to whereever you are anyway but if i could…..:P:P:P well not worth ity really…far too long for us 54 years longest premiership drought since the Melbourne Demons last premiership..and last season we finished 3rd bottom.
West Coast won the flag year before last and 2 years before that so you could say we fuked right?
to answer your querstion with wrestling: Hulk Hogan?:P
I don’t know but I’m from California so that means #WestCoastBestCoast
How you work that one out? I forgotten how many BAFTA noms joker has?
That would be on ESPN2.
Well that was a LONG night. Longer then my family’s viewing of The Irishman.
In situations like this when tides are turning, it’s best to do a Pro and Con list.
____________________________
We’ll start with the films that AREN’T GOING TO WIN best picture. Then the final one is the easiest choice of the decade. I don’t go by stats. That’s for the birds. My Omaha Puzzle Club all helped with this one. We’re one smart group of gals in the middle age bracket of 75-83.
____________________________
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
PROS: It’s the cool movie in the room. It’s the movie your gamer friends would most likely want to sit down and watch. It has Brad Pitt and Leonardo DiCaprio in it. Margot Robbie waves hi for a brief moment too.
CONS: It’s directed by a narcissistic helmsman who once was an Elvis impersonator on an episode of The Golden Girls (my garden club showed me this horrific moment). Also because voters live in Hollywood, they don’t want to be told Once Upon a Time like their lives are fairy tales. It doesn’t make much narrative sense. And either the colors on screen were really saturated badly, or our 1999 Toshiba Tube television needs an update.
The Irishman
PROS: Beautifully filmed, lush sets, great actors.
CONS: We turned it off in 5 minutes.
Jojo Rabbit
PROS: It’s about the holocaust. Told in a different light. That’s something we haven’t witnessed before.
CONS: There were no rabbits. There were no Joes. Scarlett Johansson was in it. She thinks she’s so hot just because she’s still in her 30s with a perfect body. I got news for you honey- ladies in their 80s are hot too. My cardiologist told me wrinkles are sexy.
Ford v Ferrari
PROS: It’s about neat cars. Christian Bale did something no actor has done ever to prove he’s grand- and that’s look like a skeleton.
CONS: None of us drive Ferraris or Fords. So we couldn’t relate to the story. Some of us even aren’t legally allowed to drive anymore because our eyes don’t see past our bifocals.
1917
PROS: The war theme was a nice touch to an otherwise simple story about two men going on a very long hike.
CONS: We still don’t get why it’s called 1917.
Joker
PROS: Frances Conroy. She was someone our Bridge Club would invite over for tea and gossip.
CONS: The man who plays her son was terrible. It’s clear he needed an apartment of his own, and his dear sweet mother is nice enough to pay al his expenses while he goes out and begs for people to watch him laugh randomly. Oh, and that guy from The Irishman shows up.
Parasite
PROS: The house. We loved the closet. We loved the backyard.
CONS: We couldn’t understand a word of it. You would think a movie that has a lot of people on iPhones would at least be comprehendible.
Marriage Story
PROS: None.
CON: Everything. Starting with Scarlett Johansson’s supercuts hair style, and ending with Adam Driver’s laughably bad attempt to get his friends to cry while he sings karaoke. Gladys, one of our members, thought this was the best comedy she’d seen since The Producers.
WHICH BRINGS ME TO THE WINNER OF THIS YEAR’S TOP AWARD
Little Women
PROS: So many! First, it takes place during an era all of us in the room could finally relate to. “I used to shop at that bakery”, Carol said. All the men in the audience liked it more then the ladies. That is quite telling. “I didn’t know a movie about feminist writers in the 1800s existed”, said a man named Al, who confessed he was a Green Bay Packers fan and usually attended sporting events but somehow found himself in our theater. Meryl Streep is in it. Anything she does is Grade A. She plays a funny aunt who is scolding her niece for talking to boring Timothy Chimoltee- or however you spell it. She’s great! The story centers around her being this rich woman who feels pity for these four poor girls living with Laura Dern. No one we have spoken to in our neighborhood has bad things to say about it.
CONS: There’s a girl in the movie named Joe. That didn’t sit well with us. And she spoke with an Irish accent. But a minor glitch.
Anyways there you have it! Little Women is winning the Oscar for best picture, and I bet my bottom dollar that it also wins for those very unique dresses that we’ve never seen take a gold statue home before. Usually the academy gives that to movies like Men in Black, or anything with a guy in a good suit.
You’re a bona fide weirdo. But I am amused. 😀
1. It says it in the movie that the events in 1917, took place in the year 1917.
2. Arthur Fleck randomly laughed like that in Joker because his character had a medical condition caused by neurological damage.
3. Parasite is in the Korean language. You have to follow the subtitles below the screen.
1. It says it in the movie that the events in 1917, took place in the year 1917.
2. Arthur Fleck randomly laughed like that in Joker because his character had a medical condition caused by neurological damage.
3. Parasite is in the Korean language. You have to follow the subtitles below the screen.
Really want to go with 1917 for Best Picture, but still having trouble of going against 85 years of history telling us that no film has won Best Picture when missing nominations for acting and editing…
But it was never going to get an editing nomination because there is virtually no editing! (In fact there’s more than people realize but it’s meant to be invisible). This reliance on precursor behavior doesn’t make sense in every example.
Please indicate the examples in which we refer to history and those for which we don’t.
That´s true, but it didn´t prevent the Critics Choice members from awarding 1917 their editing award – strange enough.
That said, I don´t think anything can stop 1917 now.
Either the film couldn’t have gotten an editing or acting nomination because it’s not a showcase for either and thus it’s unfair to compare it by them or the film isn’t an acting movie or expressed in a way that a lot of filmmakers are going to do which means that it’s impossible for that movie to win best picture because it’s not the type of movie that they want to award best picture. The problem is that we have no idea which of those this film is
Let me put your mind at a little at ease here. Who else would win Best Picture?
Parasite? Foreign Language. That goes against 91 years.
Once? No editing nomination and didn’t win the PGA, DGA or WGA.
It’s not correct to compare the 85 vs 91 stat. It’s not like every single 91 years there was a FL movie nominated for BP. Not remotely close.
I am confused. Did foreign language films exist in the 30s?
Surely you don’t think 91 years vs. 85 years is a statistically relevant difference, though!… Also, the editing + acting nomination stat (like most such stats) almost definitely isn’t vulnerable to voters’ changing habits over the years (which they most definitely do – would Moonlight have won BP in 2006?) – if the movie isn’t nominated for one or both of those, it’s indicative of something… But the foreign film “stat” is vulnerable to such things and will surely be broken eventually (like the stat about no horror movie ever winning was in 1992, the stat about no fantasy film ever winning was in 2004, and so on). Who’s to say it’s not now?! To me, stats based on things that have happened this year, as is the case with 1917 not getting nominated anywhere significant for acting or editing (an outcome which was voted on in 2020), are far, far more relevant than stats based on something that may well no longer apply, like the notion that there is a strong enough bias against foreign films to prevent any of them winning Best Picture at the Oscars. Especially since the Academy has updated its membership so much the past few years – and making it more inclusive, mind you, which I’m pretty sure also refers to bringing in some more international members…
The preferential ballot system is the key. My thought process here is that being up for both international film and best picture, hurts Parasite’s chances. You will not only get the “I can’t follow subtitles” crowd, but the it’s already going to win a best picture award for international.
I know – that’s a good argument, but I do think it’s being overestimated. Especially with the preferential ballot in place. For that to kill its chances, it would take either a) enough people who would have otherwise ranked it first for BP ranking it 2nd or lower just because of that, thus resulting in its being eliminated early (which doesn’t strike me as very likely at all) or b) opposition that’s so universally beloved that a majority of the time when voters decided to do that sort of thing (and I’m sure some do think that way – I’m just not sure enough do) they would then rank that particular movie ahead of Parasite for BP, instead of others. So, they would have to not only decide International is enough for Parasite, they would have to, basically en masse, decide to switch places between it and 1917. (As, otherwise, the vote would still ultimately go to Parasite.) Now, if 1917 is that beloved/non-divisive (at the time voting happens), it will almost definitely win. (Even then I’m not 100% sure – maybe it’s more of a 2nd place film than a 1st place film within AMPAS and it only won the Globe because it’s 90 voters and it didn’t have to compete against Parasite in drama, and it only won PGA because those are producers and of course they’re going to appreciate a flashier/more expensive production like 1917 more, and it’s only winning the directing prizes for similar reasons – being more impressive technically. This has happened before.) But I’m far from sure that’s the case. Evidence points more (maybe even a lot more) towards Parasite being that beloved, instead. Anyway, this will more or less only play a role in my unofficial prediction. For my official prediction, I will go with whatever the stats say, and I expect that to be Parasite. Possibly even if it loses the WGA.
The problem is British members who will vote for 1917 are biggest group in these ‘international members’.
I wasn’t aware. I guess that makes sense – that they’d go mostly for Brits. Yeah, that’s a good point, then… Unless 1917 loses BAFTA, like The Favourite did. 🙂 But it probably won’t.
I’m rooting for 1917 to win the big one, but I’ll be more than happy if Sam Mendes wins director and it sweeps a handful of technical awards along with it including Roger Deakins of course… If PARASITE ends up winning best picture original screenplay and editing and everything else goes to 1917 that it is up for give or take a category or two it’ll be one Hell of an Oscars.
With BAFTA coming up, I tried to find what happened to films that won golden globe and BAFTA picture and director, PGA and DGA.
I can only find 4. 3 won BP.
Argo, Slumdog and Schindler’s list won. The exception? Brokeback Mountain.
Happy for any one else to add.
Hooray for Watchmen and Chernobyl for their DGA wins. The two best TV shows of 2019
If you haven’t seen Mendes speech where he specifically praises each of the other films, you should watch it.
Perhaps it might give the haters pause for a moment.
Don’t worry, I’m not stupid, I know it won’t.
Sounds like he’s practicing his Oscar speech. Kinda cocky.
Parasite is now Neon’s most successful title, passing I, Tonya.
30M in US, 160M worldwide.
Oscars matter here, even the most cynical must admit.
Do we count worldwide b.o. for Neon though? Aren’t they just U.S. distributor?
We don’t. That 30.9M is Neon. It has made over 70M in Korea alone. Neon gets nothing from that.
I think Parasite can eek it’s way close to 40 if it keeps up a good screen percentage and wins a couple of Oscars.
The pre-Globes AACTA International Picture (Parasite) continues to predict the Oscar runner-up for the 4th straight year.
Have the Oscars already been announced? Did the DGA, which has incorrectly predicted BP 4 out of the last 6 years, all of a sudden make 1917 a lock, even though it wasn’t after PGA?
So 1917 seems to winning and sweeping
At this point it seems that Oscar is…
Picture – 1917
Director – Mendes
Actor – Phoenix
Actress – Zellweger
S. Actor – Pitt
S. Actress – Dern
Original Parasite or Hollywood
Adapted – Little Women
Animated – Toy Story 4, maybe Klaus
International – Parasite
Score – Joker
Song – Rocketman
Cinematography 1917
Production Design 1917 or Hollywood
Film Editing – Parasite
Costume – Little Women
Sound Mixing – Ford v Ferrari
Sound Editing – Ford v Ferrari
VFX The Irishman or 1917
Make up – Bombshell or 1917
Documentary – American Factory, to have the Obamas at stage giving a speech, even thought the award does not go to them directly
I think 1917 has better chance in sound than make up.
And you only have 3 certain wins in your list, that ain’t a sweep.
It can really win in 9 categories. It is #1 or close second in most
Just want to say that I love the Middle English use of the word And in your last sentence!
It wasn’t nominated for CAS, though. Only Whiplash won without CAS. Also, the last movie to win Sound without an Editing nomination was Dreamgirls.
A sweep, in my personal definition, would have to be 7+ awards… or at the bare minimum if there’s less than 7 nominations for a specific film it would have to win all of them. The last movie that I would say actually swept at the Oscars would be Slumdog Millionaire where it only lost one category it was nominated for. The Hurt Locker is close and had Mad Max or GRAVITY won best picture I would’ve included those.
You decided this based on the DGA, which was locked for Mendes?
recheck the stats… PGA + DGA + GG DRAMA + GG DIRECTOR + B.O. hit at the time of voting.
PGA is preferential ballot, remember?
Parasite can upset, but its achilles is the International Film award, as its reward… One can only hope that Pain and Glory benefits from that, like in LAFCA (I think it is the better film out of the two and my number 2 of the year after 1917). I would be ecstatic if 1917 takes Picture and Director, Parasite Screenplay and Pain and Glory International Film… that would make me really happy… oh, and Pesci upsetting Pitt.
Nothing to recheck – again, we knew this would be the situation before the DGA, because Mendes was the only one who was ever winning here. That’s what I asked – did you somehow think Mendes could lose the DGA? (And I don’t mean mathematically – did you think there was an actual, realistic chance he would lose?) Because, otherwise, the situation, whatever it was before, hasn’t changed at all.
yes, he could to Bong Joon-Ho and to Tarantino… Bong because Parasite is consistently showing up at Best Picture and is extremely respected, and QT because he never won the DGA, while Mendes, if I remember correctly, did.
But I guess if you thought they could win, it makes sense that you would think the DGA win improves 1917’s chances – even though in reality it doesn’t, given that, as soon as the PGA was won, after Globe and Critics Choice directing wins, the DGA was also 99% guaranteed.
Nah, both were absolutely crippled by the stats to such an extent that, had Mendes lost, it would have been a bit of a miracle…
Like Chernobyl’s wins and Honeyland’s, but especially Little Women’s, because losing here probably would not have been good for its WGA chances, and I need it to win the WGA to help my system’s output make the most sense. Got 3/3 on DGA predictions, of course (no list this time, either, I imagine, as there was none for PGA that I can recall, probably for the same reason – too many people getting everything right). Like I said, Mendes was inevitable and the DGA will always be boring, until the end of days, they can’t help it.
We have a new leader in the “count”, as per my system (movies already facing elimination rules in brackets):
(1917) -2
Parasite -2.5
The Irishman -3
Jojo Rabbit -3
(Joker) -3
(Marriage Story) -4
(Little Women) -4
(Ford v Ferrari) -4
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood -4.5
Parasite will have to win the WGA, as expected, in order to win the count. I’m working on a bit of a revamp of my elimination rules currently (because I’ve finally had an idea about how to make Moonlight the favorite without needing the WGA+1 rule), so more on that later. (This would become relevant if Parasite lost the WGA.) In any case, were it to win that, it would automatically become the system’s Best Picture pick. (And my intuitive pick.) 1917 still needs Marriage Story (or something else – itself included) to beat Parasite at the WGA, and Little Women (or A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) to win in the other category, in order to win the count outright. Which matters, because it’s not beating anything on tiebreaks, with zero SAG nominations and a host of other key industry snubs.
Interesting how Once is doing the worst (in terms of count) out of all eight nominees right now (because of the WGA ineligibility and the editing snub, in addition to all of the things it’s lost), but it won’t remain that way unless both Marriage Story and Little Women win the WGA – the same scenario 1917 needs to win the count. Which could happen. And even in that case I could still see Once winning Best Picture – with the worst count (but not a lot of the things ahead of it). Which is bizarre, to say the least. But the lack of acting and editing nominations stat is still unbeaten…
Unfortunately I wasn´t able to see “Honeyland” yet, but I´m wondering if this one or probably “For Sama” could surprise the presumed frontrunner “American Factory”. (I predict “For Sama” because it´s really tough to bet against this moving and extraordinary story of a woman trying to protect her baby in the Syrian war).
For Sama is a really strong contender. Of those three it’s the most emotional one as well as the most fascinating one to most people probably
Have you seen it in the theatre or is it somewhere to stream?
Festival. I don’t think it’s streaming in a lot of places yet
For Sama was also fabulous – but I like Honeyland just a little bit more (even if it’s far, far more depressing, shockingly, given how depressing the whole Syria thing is).
Honeyland and Apollo 11 were the best documentaries of 2019. For Sama is great, though.
Not yet gotten around to watching Apollo 11.
Honeyland is superb, but For Sama could surprise.
Seems weird that Mendes will have more Directing Oscars than Scorcese, Hitchcock, Altman, Kubrick…..
I mean, Hilary Swank has (and soon Renee Zellweger will have) the same number of Oscars as Bette Davis. We can play this game forever. The Oscars arent cumulative.
Although both of Mendes’ wins will bug the shit out of me in years to come. The first one particularly galling.
They won’t bug me. I have and will celebrate them.
Not only is it weird, to use a word out of The Godfather it’s an infamnia . And for all the people who think 1917 is a great war movie checkout Turner classic movies tonight and watch a thirty year old Russian film called Come and See directed by Elem Klimov which was the Russian submission for the Academy award that year .
All of us serious cinephiles know and adore Come and See much as we do La Grande Illusion, All Quiet on the Western Front, Paths of Glory, The Big Parade and some others. The Klimov film also seriously contends for greatest film of its decade though ultimately for me it must be Fanny and Alexander. None of all this however impacts thant 1917 is an extraordinary film in its own right. Reminders of other great war films dosent compromise this remotely.
It’s not just war films . When Kramer v Kramer beats Apocalypse Now or Ordinary People beats Raging Bull or Terms of Endearment beats The Right Stuff something is wrong somewhere.
It’s not like he doesn’t deserve it… They just gave it to some of the wrong people in the past… I’m glad BD and BP split a lot nowadays… It seems like the BD award is seen as a legit technical prize as opposed to just a companion trophy to BP like it was so often in the past.
I’m not sure I’m happy about that. Shouldn’t the best directed film of the year be, most often, the best film of the year? Why did directing become synonymous with overcoming huge technical difficulties?
OY! WTF? i cannot believe JOKER didn’t get production design oscar nom i thought it did! i stunned! there were plenty of scenes that brought grotiness, darkness and authenticity of great depression era to life and fact it was not nominated for visual effects- as i believe it was authentic set design- honestly i disappointed in academy about that unless- does anyone know whether or not JOKER production design was largely visual effects? in which case shouldn’t been nominated for best visual effects? i feel tech categories and artistic nominations should expand to 6 not 5 consistency academy if you expand to more than 5 nominations best picture doesn’t it make sense to expand from tiem you changed rules tech and art categories to 6-7 at most? after all still only tiny select few of hundreds of films released each year right? thoughts?
It was nominated for Costume Design instead, which makes no sense.
It’s literally clown rags and a few suits from the Salvation Army.
It should’ve only received just one for Joaquin Phoenix’s performance. All the rest of the nominations are truly undeserving. There are much better films out there.
It’s gonna be close but I’m predicting Parasite for Picture, Original Screenplay, International Film, maybe editing but Irishman needs a bone thrown to it somewhere too.
Recent Oscar patterns are screenplay driven best pictures that say something about goodness and humanity and picture/director splits based on technical achievement.
1917 is technical achievement but has no SAG support. Late breaker or not. It still made Golden Globes. Does have screenplay nod. Film about peace. Seeing the other as yourself – the pilot, the soldiers on the truck, the woman and the baby.
Parasite could win screenplay, has SAG support and though dark has a sentimental ending. Not sure if that’s feel good enough next to 1917’s peace/seeing other as yourself. Like 3 Billboards’ characters were darker than Shape of Water’s love/diversity angle. Strike against Parasite is voters have the international film category to give it its award. But Roma didn’t have SAG support (despite two Oscar acting nods – one a big surprise) and feel goodness overcoming racism that Green Book did.
Once Upon A Time has screenplay and SAG support and if it isn’t about humanity – Oscar’s other best picture flavour is about itself. However Argo, Birdman, Artist all swept their seasons by guild time. Hollywood is not. So that’s its major strike.
Irishman is def not winning editing lol.
The Dga got all 3 movie awards wrong .I would have voted for Marty but would been happy if ho had won.
I like 1917 very much but it is not the best directed film of the year.
The best first film should have gone to the Last Black man in sf
And best doc Honeyland.
Well that’s it, it’s over. 1917 for the BP win.
OT: Sundance is chockful of documentaries. If you work in the industry, do the subjects of docu’s get compensated? For ex. “Hillary”. Does she get payment for screen time?
well that settles it then
So everyone that was supposed to win won. If the purpose of the shortened Oscar season was to make things more unpredictable than that has failed miserably. Feb 9 is going to be the most boring Oscars in recent history. I actually think Glenn Close would have won if it had been this year. Obviously this has been only one year, but the precursors are just going to keep pushing themselves up as well. And the shortened season made those precursor wins even more important than they should have been. I hope the Academy keeps it the date it will be next year into the following years. This breakneck pace has been too much and clearly unnecessary.
I think you misspelled your username. It’s supposed to be Negative Nancy, not JimG.
The fact that you never managed to stop yourself from posting such a ridiculously unnecessary response as this I find rather remarkable. Impulse control: don’t knock it til you’ve strongly considered letting it be your guide.
So you do admit to being negative as your latest response was negative. You should stick with your username Negative Nancy over JimG.
The shortened season made the nominees unpredictable, not the winners.
There was absolutely nothing unpredictable about the nominations. Other then Pugh and The Lighthouse there were very few surprises. And Lopez wasn’t a complete snub if you look at Oscar’s history. Unless there is an appreciable increase in ratings they should move it back to late February. The precursors are just gonna keep moving to stay on Oscar’s coattails and having FIVE awards on one day is ridiculous.
Purpose of shortened season was for TV ratings, not unpredictability.
Well I hope it’s worth it for the Academy to have arguably the most predictable top 8 in history. But we’ll get the results on February 10th.
Let’s do this one more time!
Apologize in advance for posting this to as many threads as possible, for obvious reasons! It’s easy to skip over, though, once voted.
All who have seen each of the nine Best Picture nominees at the Oscars this year (give or take a Ford v Ferrari, which clearly cannot win either the online simulation or the Oscar, and maybe also Marriage Story, for the same reason, although I’m less decided in that case) are invited to post their ranked ballots in reply to this comment – with sincere thanks in advance -, for my 9th Annual Best Picture Preferential Ballot Simulation!
Since I haven’t seen Little Women (or Parasite or Jojo Rabbit – but at least the first of these I’m seeing very soon) myself and won’t be able to until the 7th or 8th (which is when it premieres over here), I will refrain from voting this year. (My mom also won’t be able to vote, for similar reasons.) Unofficially, here is my ranking of the six movies I’ve seen thus far:
1. Marriage Story
2. Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
3. 1917
4. The Irishman
5. Joker
6. Ford v Ferrari
(I also didn’t vote last year, as I didn’t see The Favourite in time. My mom did, though.)
The interesting thing about this is that there is now a six-year streak going of the likely runner-up for Best Picture at the Oscars finishing either runner-up or, in one case, tied for second place, in this simulation (as Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri was eliminated in third place only after a tie with Call Me By Your Name). The beginning of this streak coincides with when I started holding these at both Awards Daily and the now defunct IMDb Message Boards. (The first two years I only did it on IMDb.) So, perhaps, with everybody’s help, we can once more get a not insignificant clue about which of the contenders will NOT win Best Picture…
The history:
2011 The Social Network —– details not saved (second place was Black Swan, I believe)
2012 – not held –
2013 Zero Dark Thirty ——— 37-24 over Silver Linings Playbook
2014 Her ————————– 33-33 tied with Gravity, won 19-18 on total first place votes
2015 Birdman ——————– 62-61 over Boyhood
2016 Mad Max: Fury Road — 51-37 over The Revenant
2017 Moonlight —————— 41-32 over La La Land
2018 Phantom Thread ——— 39-33 over Call Me By Your Name
2019 The Favourite ————- 45-30 over Roma
I will more than likely both tally the votes and announce the results on Monday.
1. Jojo Rabbit
2. 1917
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Joker
5. Little Women
6. Ford v. Ferrari
7. Parasite
8. Marriage Story
9. The Irishman
A note for Brett’s ovation stat from Glenn Whipp on Twitter
DGA Awards: Bong Joon Ho earns the biggest ovation of the evening, including from everyone at my table … all of whom voted for Sam Mendes.
Yes but Parasite fans May have to except MAYBE most likely awards race is almost all but over look like foreign language and editing maybe outside shot at screenplay which still step forward for foreign film’s. Traditionally academy don’t like going to extremes from foreign film of such high profile to dominating major awards it was only 2 yrs ago after all Roma got more nominations academy as I said strongly prefer to share load alternate year on year. Bong time will deservedly come just I don’t think this year.
BAFTA outcome will make this official but at very least we can see odds really favouring 1917 now.
3 Oscars for Parasite will do nicely thank you. 🙂
That would be great, but Spaniards are trying to take out that International. Pedro is an idiot! So maybe 2 Oscars.
I told you… Pedro did not say Penelope is presenting International… the newscaster spoiled it, when airing live the Goyas.
Whoever is presenting the award has nothing to do with who wins… Remember when Harrison Ford was going to present best picture to Steven Spielberg for Saving Private Ryan? that didn’t work out
You really think Parasite loses to Pain and Glory? I did postulate that as a possibility but unsure it will happen
Small chance, but it doesn’t stop Pedro trying. He ”accidentally” slipped that.
you can edit this post.
No way. If there was a year where the foreign language film was winning everything, they may consider giving international to another film, but this year, if you loved parasite, you’d vote for it in both. You wouldn’t want to risk it being empty handed.
What’s the drama? I can’t find it online.
I still think Joker has a big shot to win BP at BAFTA, with 1917 maybe winning Best British Film.
one can only hope– you never know anything fdor sure in this rushed oscar season and out respect to Parasite fans of course it still has some sort of shot..but I think we know what favourite is- but as we say in Aussie Rules (I a tragic tragic Dees fan- ala Melbourne Football club- the oldest and original foundation club in the league i proud to support even if they failed to have ultimate success winning premiership- not for 53 years- bout as long incidentally as last known WWI movie won and oscar) but as we say:
“One team may be favourite and there are 2 teams (in case of Oscars 3 other films that can win best picture MAYBE) and if there more than one team- anyone can win”
(Except in Aussie rules precursors mean shit even recent form means squat new day new opportunity- for either team to win)
In order i belive Oscar would be preferring following to win in this order:
1. 1917
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Parasite
4. Joker
although i strongly believe though i know it odds are 1/1000 given academy;s unjustified reluctance to give most nominated film like they much more often than not used to do- irrespective of preferential ballot it NO excuse order ideally should be like this:
1. Joker
2. 1917
3. Ford vs. Ferrari- laugh all you want but it oh so rare for a racing themed movie to work so masterfully well at soo many levels- and to shoot in all types of conditions in that truly unforgettable recreation of le-mans, it tremendous achievement i really feel the ONLY reason Bale, Damon, Tracy Letts got snubbed is cos not enough oscar voters who care abvout racing as a theme in movies- what can i say? long live the truly unjustified genre discrimination academy imposed to disadvantage certain genres it HAS to change it is INEVEITABLE- mark my words
4. JoJo Rabbit
5. Once Upon a time.., in Hollywood
5. Parasite
Honestly forget the rest as neither of them have a chance to win i not making excuses for netflix anymore it be a spectacular fails for them- record amount of nominatins and few less wins compared tgo Roma almost certainty this year what step backward it will be.
1917 is definitely winning BAFTA (stats have become irrelevant after its recent wins – BAFTA are almost as boring as DGA) and then probably losing Best Picture to Parasite.
People are so two faced aren’t they?
I don’t think it’s necessarily two-faced. I’d have given Parasite the ovations as it’s my #2 of the contenders, doesn’t mean I’m voting for it.
I was being playful. I wasn’t sure what your comment meant.
I meant don’t overinterpret the ovations.
Ah, understood. Happy Australia Day to you too Andrew.
Yes same to you, I’m trying not to let Bettina Ardnt’s horrific award spoil it, what a disgrace
Yes agreed it stuck out like dogs balls when I read that.
The cubists were right!!
He he 🙂
Sasha had a really funny tweet earlier
I really hate dumb takes about 1917 – please don’t send them my way unless you want me to bitch about Little Women for the next 24 hours straight.
But then she retweeted praise for Gerwig’s script. She really is trying to behave herself.
I could read 24 hours of Gerwig/ LW praise.
Great night of results.
DGA:
Ecstatic for Mendes/1917. That movie blew me away. I love Parasite, too. But I wasn’t on board its final 10-15 minutes or so. Still a GREAT film. Loved OUATIH, too. But I find that more a Screenplay feat rather than a Directorial one. Bloodbath in Original Screenplay between Parasite and OUATIH, methinks.
ASC:
What can I say? Deakins is a cinematography God. SO happy for him for his incredible work this year.
ANNIES:
I am so freaking happy. Klaus was such a random, beautiful surprise when I decided to give it a shot a couple of months ago when my sister texted me to say: hey, I just saw this adorable animated movie on Netflix, you have to check it out.
I was floored by the movie’s beauty and story, but never thought it would become an Oscar/BAFTA nominee and a 7-time Annie winner . Wow!!!
CSA:
I don’t know what to do with FvF versus 1917 in the Sounds! Why do I feel like FvF has a better shot in the Editing category than either of the Sounds? I guess I’ll just have to pick one of these two for both Sounds and hope I picked correctly.
SCRIPTER:
So happy for Gerwig/LW for one of my favorite films of the year. WGA will be telling. But also BAFTA … does The Two Popes take it there???
Also. Has any film won Best Screenplay at the Oscars before with a Metacritic score of 58 (Jojo Rabbit) ?
So director is officially over, as is cinematography. I don’t think that is too surprising by this point but we needed to wait for this to be sure. I still think if Parasite is winning screenplay it could win picture but its more likely that this year belongs to 1917 and we are in The Shape of Water year again (obviously not exactly but in terms of winning PGA, DGA and not WGA and not being nominated for SAG ensemble then winning picture with director and some technicals).
But The Shape of Water got acting noms at SAG and the Oscars and Editing at ACE and the Oscars which translated into broad support from both the actors and the editors into winning BP. Parasite is far from done.
Yeah of course I didn’t say Parasite was done and I did say the situation isn’t exactly the same as The Shape of Water… Just that it seems like the most likely outcome right now. Read “if Parasite is winning screenplay it could win picture”.
But what if Once Upon a Time in Hollywood takes Original Screenplay? It hasn’t lost an Original Screenplay prize yet this season, and it’s ineligible for the WGA since Quentin Tarantino is not a WGA member. If OUATIH wins the BAFTA, then I feel that race is over. I feel 1917 has officially emerged as a solid frontrunner for Best Picture, and OUATIH and Parasite are fighting for that Original Screenplay prize to be in contention to win Best Picture.
Yeah totally, my comment said if Parasite is winning picture which was not meant to read that it is winning – it could definitely lose. Honestly I don’t see a path for Hollywood to win picture, though it should be said that even though it is ineligible at WGA it could basically follow the Moonlight path (if we assume it would have won at WGA). Still I think it’s unlikely. I feel like if Hollywood wins screenplay 1917 wins picture but if Parasite wins screenplay I don’t know who wins picture… Probably still 1917 but I’m less confident. I just don’t see a film winning picture without winning a single major guild, that would just be crazy. 1917 and Parasite will both have several and Hollywood will have none (except a smaller technical one like maybe Production)
12 years a slave was ineligible at WGA and lost BAFTA Adapted screenplay To Philomena yet won Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay en route to Picture. So there is a slim path for Once to win.
But that film kept winning stuff, no?
12 years won PGA, though.
But 12 YAS won PGA… Though yes I did say there is a slim path for it (following basically the Moonlight path) I just think it is unlikely.
Yeah, I almost forgot 12 Years won PGA.
I feel bad for George MacKay, between PGA, DGA, Golden Globe wins for the film he is the sole lead of, I think he would have made the cut in Best Actor, were the season two weeks longer. As in its usual length.
Agreed. Best actor was packed for anyone to break in in December, let alone a lesser known actor. Hey AMPAS you can recognise him on stage if you vote 1917 BP!
not if but when, is it me or AMPAS is on the verge of handing out once again the oscar to Sam Mendes and his B+ rescue mission movie ?
If anyone is doubting Sam Mendes to win Best Director at the Oscars, you’re only kidding yourself. He’s a lock for the BAFTA too, so that one he has in the bag.
The last person to win DGA but not the Oscars was Affleck in 2013 (Ang Lee won), but that was because he was NOT nominated there. The last DGA winner to lose at Oscars (I.e. nominated at the Oscars, but lose the award) was Rob Marshall who lost to Roman Polanski in 2003.
That’s right. But the question is, is 1917 the equivalent of Chicago, and I would say no. 1917 is definitely a Director’s movie in general.
Chicago is definitely a director’s movie but genre bias was strong against Marshall.
Academy (usually) favors dark war dramas over glitzy musicals.
Fundamentally wrong the academy has NOT favoured a war film over ANYTHING since Hurt Locker and before that PLATOON facts buddy facts. It about damn time as thankfully appears more more likely 1917 too eventful too important a quality film to not win at academy awards it win big. It deserves 5 Oscar wins and prob get that.
And those 5 are HUGE well 4/5 But I predict extra one as academy out explanation mark on this superb achievement .
Best a picture- as near certain lock as u expect for 1917
Best director -Mendes deserves it no question he get Oscar for that
Best cinematography- If he hasn’t already Deakins will break record for most Oscars won by a cinematographer
You can add: Sound Oscar will go deservedly Ford vs. Ferrari but I think cos 1917 will almost certainly do so well in other 3 categories it get sound effects editing or other way round if Ford vs. FERRARI get sound effects editing oscar may go to 1917.
And finally I think there chance it could get costume or production design for1917.
I always said 5 is threshold minumum fpr memorable masterpiece frankly it was masterstroke capling it 1917 by it very year it marketing pitch is it example of way soldiers went through in 1917. It possible production team and Mendes are smartest team around this year amongst best in the business.
I still expect Joker get 2 Oscars score and acting which for film that too many critics thaN film deserved shat on is very decent return given it unlikely incredibly so sadly not win best picture.
And Parasite after all hype may just get 2 Oscars either a original screenplay and editing which be first for film without winning best picture still wonderful step forward for foreign film’s profile competing in main categories. …still excellent for film nobody heard about until fantastic reviewscame in but I just not swayed it best of best this year sorry.
So Guilds make sense.
And guess what? At Best for initial 3 film’s that competed and despite breaking their record for Oscar nominations compared last year getting 2/3 films nom best picture, Netflix is almost certain to win no more than 1 at MOST 2 Oscars and that given Irishman was so hyped up before award season this film shaped as biggest loser . Set to go 0/10 I know we can’t declare anything yet but trend is against Netflix movies and it looming as an absolute PR disaster for Netflix .
There be mass carnage in administrative wings for Netflix after this .
Even JOJO rabbit more chsnce winning one oscar over Irishman. Proof that film waffled on went too long and realky nothing stand out at qll bout the uninspired story.
Though I not seen Parasite I take that over Irishman any day don’t be shocked people even I can appct originality inventiveness however limits I feel in parasite not great movie as I seen I seen it pretty much now so yea…I in end my resentment Netflix combined with my appctn built more since i had chsnce reflect in such bloody short race and well Irishman tutns out biggeer loser terms of my rsnking best picture .
Ok now it locked final final. What a slide for Irishman!
1. Joker – 98% brilliance
2. 1917 – 96% brilliance
3. Ford vs. Ferrari – 95% brilliance
4. JO-JO Rabbit – 92% brilliance
5. Parasite!! – 80% brilliance wow:)
6. Little Women – est 75% excellence loved The cast
7 . The Irishman ( down down)- a colossal – 15% to deserved ordinary 55% mediocre
8. Marriage Story ( oh pallease) 35%
There’ll be quite a spread between several of the BP nominees. At least 7 will win Oscars. Unsure if Irishman or Jojo will take home any gold.
Happy Australia Day btw Azz
..And thankyou for your kind comliments in your other post i extend same to you but more than Gentleman and a Scholar in your own right i merely and informal- exclusive only:P blogger for awards daily only. But you have wisdom and insight of experience given your invaluable contribution in film industry we should all be grateful tghat you are been here as long if not? longer than i have.
Parasite will have success- but i feel it need to score an upset or at LEAST win best director at BAFTAS i just not sure the Baftas will but i see that as Parasite last chance for upset respectfully.
You know sure the preferential ballot may be about ‘spreading the wins’ but you know something is very very very wrong when oscar throwaway thge value and worth of most nominated film it was way oscar defined as standing for something now they dont really know do they?
I just relieved more than usual if 1917 wins best pic as we almost certain it will that i scored one less nomination than joker- which for 11 noms- and it could only win 2 – 3 of those at the MOST it may seem….as someone been around long time sure evolution is good but somethings even in some industries should stay the same..the essence and value of academy irrespective of preferential ballot- which to me is oscars self justificationb tgo change a system that aint broke anyway- public have mixed feelings bout it why you think academy no longer care bout public input? is this much change necessary to industry you seen change dont you think too much change can undo oscars credibility? it happening already.
How many years since most nominated film won best picture? just before flawed ill thought through preferential ballot right? sure some years lesser nominees terms of no of nominations are outright best picture winner and win and i agree – but further you go back most nominated film won- more than say twice a decade- it really is a sad state of affairs suddenly headline for instance when Joker got 11 noms- but a cynic like me could argue it bout headline grabbing for ratings.
I actually hope the ratings improve but only as much as the Academy deserve marginal improvement- film viewers of academy are not stupid right mate? They know difference between marketing of ‘most nominated film’ and emerging reality.
When are the Academy gonna realize they can’;t fool the public anymore? why did they stop caring? once upon a time what public thought felt and were enthusiastic by the MOST was also what critics liked (not necesarily loved) and won best picture AND was most nominated.
How would it hurt Academy’s reputation to brinbg back some principles that once saw them as amongst highest rated most enthusiastically previewed and advertised awards ceremony worldwide?
So over to you your chance share with me your deep wisdom and insights and your experience what you agree with me what dont you? of course other pple here welcome give their insights too.
If it aint broke don’t fix it why academy change structure?
I reckon AMPAS only started caring since the advent of social media and 24 hour news cycles. chatter changed how they were perceived and since Dark Knight snub they’ve been knee jerk reacting reacting to everything they’ve been accused of doing . That’s not altogether bad obviously but at the end of the day they are an old self referential institution. They were set up to please themselves not the masses or the media or critics.
Talk to her won best original screenplay and was a foreign film and was not nominated for best picture or best foreign film. It happened before. Parasite is in a stronger position.
Chicago had no business beating The Hours and The Pianist but let’s not go there
I hated the Hours even more than Jo jo Rabbit. The score was the most annoying of any movie I have ever heard.
Nowadays at least
Also he was new at the time.
Does anyone from the Scripter Awards vote at the Oscars?
“Eligible works are reviewed by a committee comprised of Writers Guild of America Members, Academy Award-winning and -nominated screenwriters, authors, film industry executives, faculty, and select members of the Friends of the USC Libraries. This selection committee narrows down the year’s eligible films to five nominees and then chooses that year’s best adaptation of the printed word into film.”
Thank you Ryan, I appreciate it! I don’t follow the Scripters usually, so I didn’t know. Thank you for clarifying!
I know 1917 wasn’t up for Ensemble; I meant it wasn’t in contention so therefore the heat changed to Parasite.
La La Land won everything 1917 has and was nominated in both lead acting categories, and it lost. Anything is possible.
Again, that was a very atypical year. If you have to use Moonlight to boost the film you want to win, it’s best to choose another film.
I said possible, not likely.
Well anyone nominated could possibly win, so it’s better to talk likelihood.
“Anything is possible” is not how Oscars work, they are largely predictable and even the big upsets go to the 2nd most likely.
Geez, all I’m saying is that this doesn’t mean the race is completely over. I’m not trying to “boost” anything.
So Sam Mendes wins DGA. As much as I love Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and would love for Tarantino to win Directing at some point, Mendes is very deserving of this. Big question is, is 1917 the runaway favorite at this point. It’s a lock for Director, Cinematography, Sound Mixing + Editing, and I think it’s a lock for Visual Effects too. But does it get Picture as well?
Looks that way.
1917 has a slight lead for Best Picture, but Parasite still has a chance especially if it nabs WGA Original Screenplay and/or BAFTA Original Screenplay.
I’d say Mendes is a virtual lock for Director.
Mendes I think is a done deal for Director. Tarantino won the Globe for Screenplay, and is ineligible for WGA since he’s not a member. If he wins BAFTA, I think it’s his to lose. However, if Parasite is able to snag WGA and BAFTA, then I think that wins.
https://media2.giphy.com/media/zN7ClLuvWmR8I/giphy.gif
Picture is going to Hollywood because it’s taking also original screenplay, supp. actor and production design. 1917 is taking director, cinematography, sound Mixing and sound editing. 4 oscars for hollyWood and 4 for 1917.
I think Hollywood has a great shot at Costume Design too, and someone pointed out to me tonight that no one in the last I think 20 years has won Best Costume Design without the Costume Guild nomination, which would rule out Little Women.
Sure Jan,
Hollywood is 3rd at this point
Probably. That’s where I think it is right now. But then again, I discounted Moonlight completely for Best Picture, and that pulled off a shocker. Since Hollywood won BP at the Globes, it shouldn’t be fully discounted. But I think 1917 is winning BP at the moment.
Moonlight is a highly unusual year. If you have to use moonlight to argue a film could win, you’re clutching at straws I think
The film that could Moonlight this year would probably be Once…Hollywood (Parasite has a path though).
“Could” not “will.” I’m actually becoming increasingly sure Best Picture is going to 1917 after both the PGA and the DGA win.
It would be only the 12th GG Comedy winner to win Best Picture in almost 60 years, so doubtful.
Correct, I’m not currently predicting OUATIH to win BP, but I’m just saying, surprises do happen if the statistics line up.
Actually, Hollywood was eliminated tonight. No film has won Best Picture without at least one major guild win in the “guilds” era (meaning the past 30 plus years since PGA started awarding its prizes; DGA and WGA are much, much older). The major guilds are PGA, DGA, WGA and SAG Ensemble (with ACE and ASC just behind), then its over, as only WGA remains, and Hollywood is ineligible. IMO Parasite will (and should) win Original Screenplay at WGA and the Oscars. Best Picture is down to 1917 vs. Parasite. Nothing else statistically stands a chance.
BTW, the only film to win PGA DGA and WGA but to lose the Best Picture Oscar is Brokeback Mountain. Wonder why…
FWIW, Crash had won SAG and WGA Original Screenplay. Brokeback had won WGA Adapted Screenplay. So it’s not like Crash relief solely on its SAG Ensemble victory.
Score is a very good chance. The others are very unlikely except maybe production design if Once is really fading
Oh I think Joker wins that one in a cakewalk. It’s the most haunting memorable score of the year.
I think it’s close and Newman is way overdue on his 15th nom.
I like Joker score too but Newman’s score is much bigger and marries so well with the visuals.
One thing to keep in mind is it doesn’t say the name of the composer on the ballot for Original Score. So I don’t think anyone necessarily cares that Thomas Newman has never won. Dianne Warren just received her 11th nomination for Original Song, and has never won, but that doesn’t mean she’s winning it this year.
Yes the lack of name is an issue for Newman. Not sure how much his overdue status is known or publicised,
A 1917 sweep might collect him in it though
True true. However, the Academy also LOVES Joker. As evident from its 11 nominations. Since the whole body gets to vote for the winner, it’ll probably be able to pick up a win for Score in addition to Joaquin Phoenix winning Lead Actor. They went CRAZY for Joker with the nominations!
The fact that it’s 4 dudes and 1 woman (Joker) also helps secure a Best Original Score victory for Joker, kinda like how Greta Gerwig is building the support necessary to win Best Adapted Screenplay for Little Women.
It’s beginning to look like Greta Gerwig is going to be the win for Little Women, especially since so many people were angry she missed the Best Director nomination. WGA and BAFTA have to weigh in to completely confirm that. They could go Irishman, they could also go Jojo Rabbit. I don’t think they’ll go Joker for Screenplay. BTW, I love the Fantastic Mr. Fox profile pic. That movie was ROBBED of Best Animated Feature at the Oscars that year.
No, the score ballot only has the film name
But Academy members might be aware of the fact that the Joker score was composed by a woman since she won the Golden Globe.
Dianne Warren should go back to making good songs if she ever wants to win a competitive Oscar. I don’t want to be mean to her because I love some of her 90’s/early naught Oscar-nominated hits namely Because You Loved Me (Céline Dion), I Don’t Want To Miss A Thing (Aerosmith) and There You’ll Be (Faith Hill) but her latest post-2010 efforts were at best forgettable and surely prevented worthier songs from being nominated.
Aerosmith is my favorite band, I think she should’ve won for I Don’t Want to Miss a Thing, with all due respect to When You Believe from The Prince of Egypt.
She’s actually written good songs? She only ever does sappy ballads.
I’ve already mentioned three oscar-nominated songs of hers which I consider very good and I could add Un-break my heart (Toni Braxton), Can’t Fight the Moonlight (LeAnn Rimes) and Can’t Take That Away (Mariah Carey) among songs I remember fondly and still listen to from time to time.
I love sappy ballads, sappy books, sappy films and tv shows, sappy everything really. Dianne is at her best when she unashamedly goes full sappy, but it’s mockers like you who make her doubt her craft and wonder how she could appeal to the self-proclaimed “cool” crowd. I wish she’d just say “fuck it” and indulge in bombastic sappiness as she should.
DGA – Mendes.
Greta winning the Scripter should spark a few more columns by the Editor in Chief.
DGA is moving at a fast pace… ASC almost done as well…
What channel is it on?
Not televised. Online updates.
Who should I follow on Twitter for the updates?
DGA and ASC now underway. Annie update:
Best Music – Feature: I Lost My Body
Best Music – TV/Media: Love, Death & Robots: Sonnie’s Edge
Best Character Design – Feature: Klaus
Best Character Design – TV/Media: Carmen Sandiego: The Chasing Paper Caper
Fun Fact: Michael Bay is a DGA Award Winner. He directed the Got Milk “Aaron Burr” commercial in 1994.
Remember everyone before drawing far-reaching conclusions: none of this is surprising at all.
Happy year of the rat!
That too 🙂
:)) Exactly. I love how people always start calling locks right after the most obviously locked announcements!…
Annie Awards, too, and the next to last chance for Frozen II to stop the insanity and win decisively. Watch the show live!
https:// vimeo. com/ 385158836
Winners so far:
Best Production Design – Feature: Klaus (grrrr)
Best Production Design – TV/Media: Love, Death & Robots: The Witness Blur
Best Short Subject: Uncle Thomas: Accounting for the Days
Best Student Film: The Fox & The Pigeon
Best Commercial: The Mystical Journey of Jimmy Page’s ‘59 Telecaster
Best Special Production: How to Train Your Dragon Homecoming
If Frozen II wins the top award, the Annies would have lost any tiny shred of credibility It has left after Kung Fu Panda beat Wall-E in 2009.
Frozen II shouldn’t have been so boring if it cared about winning.
It’s 4.24 A.M. here. What time the ceremony will be ?
Good morning, good afternoon or good evening as the case may be. Just gone 2pm Sydney time. May all your faves prevail tonight. An exciting array of precursors to be announced. Very exciting.
I still think Once Upon a Time in Hollywood will take best picture. I think it will get most 1 through 3 place votes on the preferential ballot. It is generally liked, it’s got Brad, Leo, and Tarantino, and it’s about Hollywood.
Yes the SAG, PGA and DGA losses really strengthen its chances of BP.
PS. The PGA is a preferential ballot.
It’s my favorite film of 2019, but I think it’s looking far less likely it’ll win Best Picture. Brad Pitt is a lock for Supporting Actor, so that’ll be a major win for the film. Original Screenplay is looking very good for it at the moment. Same with Production Design and Costume Design.
Inglorious Basterds won only supporting actor and that was a far better film than Once upon a time in Hollywood in my opinion. And I’m not crapping on Once upon a time in Hollywood I really like that movie too.
It had Pitt, Tarantino and Leo and was about Hollywood as well when it lost SAG, PGA and D G A. The preferential ballot will actually cement its defeat as 1917 is an emotionally charged film, one that by its nature will attract a ton of first place votes.
Scripter: Gerwig
DGA: Gerwig (in a shocking write-in vote)
This is still a tough call. 1917 wins Drama Globe, PGA, DGA. Loses SAG Ensemble. I feel passion for it, but not as much as Parasite. But with the preferential ballot, many voters may rank Parasite 1st, and 1917 second. And it seems the most consistent movie at the top of the pile prevails. However, I think it’s still a tight race.
CURRENT OSCAR PREDICTIONS
Best Picture: 1917
Best Director: Sam Mendes, 1917
Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Best Actress: Renee Zellweger, Judy
Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Best Adapted Screenplay: Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Best Original Screenplay: Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Cinematography: 1917
Best Production Design: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Costumes: Jojo Rabbit
Best Makeup: Bombshell
Best Score: Joker
Best Song: Rocketman
Best Film Editing: Parasite
Best Sound Mixing: 1917
Best Sound Editing: Ford v Ferrari
Best Visual Effects: The Lion King (think Jungle Book)
Best International Film: Parasite
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 4
Best Doc Feature: American Factory
Surprises that could happen:
Parasite wins Picture, Screenplay
Once Upon a Time wins Picture, Supporting Actor, Screenplay (the same three categories Green Book won last year)
JoJo Rabbit trumps Little Women for Adapted Screenplay
Longshots:
Antonio Banderas wins Best Actor for Pain and Glory
Margot Robbie wins Best Supporting Actress for Bombshell
Bong Joon Ho wins Screenplay for Parasite
Jojo Rabbit takes Adapted Screenplay
Many still misunderstand preferential voting,
If it is down to 1917 v Parasite, parasite voters putting 1917 #2 doesn’t count for 1917 and vice versa.
The #2 and subsequent preferences of ELIMINATED films will decide it.
True true.
The only way for #1 and #2 to swap places in the final round of redistribution is for most of the #3 ballots to fall into #2’s stack.
I’m sure that’s how Moonlight won.
Yeah I know, it’s confusing to me. I honestly don’t know where to go with this one. The passion Parasite got at the SAG awards was great, but we’ve seen passion like that for the likes of Black Panther, Hidden Figures and Three Billboards. I’m sticking to 1917 now for picture and director. As much as I want Jojo Rabbit to prevail for Adapted Screenplay, I think Gerwig wins. Original Screenplay – yikes. I have Tarantino. But will Parasite benefit from it’s strong WGA likelihood? And then the damn sound categories.
I think many are overblowing the SAG win and ovation. I didn’t see overwhelming passion at the globes above 1917 or anything else.
Who do you think it is Andrew? I always like to get insights. The final showdowns are always rough for me. I got Green Book right last year for Best Pic. But every year is different. Is it 1917?
I chose Green Book too. I didn’t think AMPAS would give a foreign film best picture especially a slow one.
If anything Roma was a more epic story than Parasite’s dark introspection. If parasite was in English, we’d probably be talking about it as an overlooked indie hit rather an a frontrunner. I don’t really understand how it ended up in its current position.
I really liked Parasite but the ending is really out there, and not to everyone’s taste.
And to be a BP frontrunner, it has underperformed, it lost GG director when that seemed a slam dunk, it lost CC BP and tied Mendes for director when it should have won both, and it lost PGA and DGA.
I can’t see the steak eaters going for it and 1917 is fresh and has a lot of momentum. I’m leaning 1917.
I am too. Even if Parasite had won the DGA, I would have stuck with 1917 for best picture (as Roma won DGA, Director Oscar and lost best picture).
The harder categories are the techs for me. The academy likes to spread the wealth recently. Sasha recently had Jojo Rabbit for Costumes, which I have currently. But perhaps Costumes and Production Design BOTH go to the same film- either Jojo or Once Upon a Time.
The sound categories. I want to just check of 1917 for both, but Ford v Ferrari is sticking in my mind for one of them. I just can’t decipher which.
I TRULY want 1917 to win Score, but I think Joker has it.
I have Bombshell for Makeup, but might we see a surprise there?
Visual Effects. Lion King has been PLUGGING their campaign for the behind the scenes workings of the amazing CGI done on the film. Like Jungle Book, it is a sight to behold. Unlike Jungle Book, it got mixed reviews and no live action characters. I got First Man for Visual Effects last year because I think the academy goes for a focused movie for Special Effects (eg Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Forrest Gump, Ex Machina). So I am thinking Irishman could do it, with the meticulous attention to details for getting the old legends young again. I don’t think Avengers or Star Wars wins. Then there’s 1917, which like Gravity, could just pull a a sweep.
”If parasite was in English, we’d probably be talking about it as an overlooked indie hit rather an a frontrunner.”
Jesus. Rarely does one see something so stupidly American. Trump just said that Americans even invented the wheel.
I’m not American. And I think I hate Trump more than anyone here.
I didn’t mean it to sound Trumpian. I like it, it’s my #6 of the year, but I don’t get how it’s become so prominent in the awards conversation. It’s dark, it’s out there and the ending is challenging. I think the language does give it a bit of novelty value.
Ok. If the movie WAS in English and still that good, we would ignore it?
The complete opposite is real. If Parasite was the exact same, but in English… it would have been the frontrunner to win for months.
Here, you belittle a movie that is in some random language that you don’t speak. I bet that you don’t watch too many non-English language movies per year.
In 2019, I watch about 300 new movies and more than half were not in English.
If it was in English with white actors from a major studio like Universal, I think its odds of winning would be dramatically higher, I agree. I also resent the way that people come up with excuses for films like 1917 missing an editing nom (it was edited to make it look like one shot like 2014’s Birdman) or Hollywood missing an editing nom (maybe this is a fluke year).
However, they continuously bring up the fact that Parasite (like 1917) has no acting noms and IGNORE the #OscarsSoWhite #BAFTASoWhite controversy. One huge reason why the Parasite cast was not nominated is because Asian Best Picture nominees like Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, Slumdog Millionaire, and The Last Emperor have continuously been overlooked in terms of acting noms. If there is only 1 out of 40 possible nominees in acting at Oscars or BAFTAs who is non-white (Cynthia Erivo in Lead Actress at the Oscars), how on earth could you expect any Asian actor from Parasite to make the noms list and why would you hold that against them from a stats perspective?
It’s the racism built in the process, both explicit and subtle. Asian actors are invisible and viewed almost like exotic dolls, to the point where Charlize posted a happy pic with her and Park So-Dam but called her “this one,” which some people were not happy about. Now I know she’s not racist, but I think that’s a microcosm of how some people view Asian actors – through this Orientalist, patronizing lens where their names are too hard to pronounce or understand.
I distinctly got the Black Panther/Hidden Figures vibe from the two standing ovations for Parasite at SAG. I think they applauded the first time because 1) they made history by becoming the first nominated foreign language film cast in 21 years since Life is Beautiful (and first Korean film cast ever) and they didn’t know if it was going to win SAG ensemble, and the second time 2) they made history by becoming the first foreign language film cast to win. History made both times.
Also, a LA Times journalist said that at his DGA table last night, the directors gave Bong the loudest applause, but that EVERY SINGLE ONE voted for Mendes.
So, to me, both at SAG and DGA, the standing ovation or loud applause was for the historical nature of Parasite’s presence at the awards show, but it was also a consolation “prize” (if you can even call it that) for them. Basically, “you did a really good job, and we acknowledge that, but we’re still not going to give you Best Picture or Best Director. Someone else is better.” Feeling a little down about that, but it is what it is.
Not that anyone can upset in the acting categories. But I don’t think if there was anyone who would win it other than Joaquin Phoenix it’d be Antonio Banderas. The Academy didn’t love Pain and Glory. It missed Directing and Writing, which writing could’ve been an easy nom for it, and it didn’t get it. Adam Driver and Leonardo DiCaprio are in films with broad support, or in Driver’s case minor broad support. Still, I think Joaquin Phoenix is the biggest lock of the four acting categories.
Most of your predictions seem on point. However, how come you think Jojo Rabbit gets Costumes and there will be a split between Sound Mixing and Sound Editing? Usually the sound categories go hand in hand.
Oh they do. I am on the fence with the sound categories. I am leaning towards 1917 for both, but I have a hunch Ford v Ferrari wins one of them.
Sasha has Jojo predicted in costumes. I had Once Upon a Time at first, but Jojo’s pop more. Little Women is conventional. Up in the air categories sometimes go any which direction.
Also The Lion King for VFX – I got to thinking about Jungle Book. Similar big scale movies with incredible CGI. A lot of focus. I picked First Man last year and got it, knowing that they usually don’t go for movies like Avengers or the new Star Wars. Still, there’s the subtle brilliance of The Irishman and of course, easy name checking of 1917 (which could score Production Design).
What do you think? I love hearing other insights as I told my friend below. It’s fun to ponder. The acting races seemed locked up, so to win your pool, you need to get the smaller categories right.
Acting has never been so locked in all the years I’ve followed Oscar.
Well, there was two years ago when Gary Oldman, Frances McDormand, Sam Rockwell, and Allison Janney won the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, SAG, BAFTA, and Oscar. It had never happened before that all four acting categories went 20/20.
I think Metcalfe remained an outside chance.
I understand why you would think that since Allison Janney was the only acting frontrunner that year who wasn’t in a Best Picture nominee. However, a friend of mine from NYC spoke to so many SAG and Oscar voters, and in both polls Janney was miles ahead of her competition that year.
Janney swept all guilds and tv awards Metcalf dominated critics from memory. Janneys scenery chewing was too irresistible
Yep ,never this locked ever.
Frances mcdormand, Gary Oldman, Allison Janney and Sam Rockwell were locked and loaded for the wins since globes also. Like this year, not all were deserving.
I’m not 100percent sold that Dern will win. I want her to but if there’s a break up of the 4 locks I think it’s her
Of course! I love friendly debates with fellow awards fans! Yeah I don’t think anyone is upsetting in the acting categories, though I think Joaquin Phoenix is the most secure and Laura Dern is the least secure but still pretty solidly locked, since it will ensure Marriage Story gets a win.
I think Ford v. Ferrari’s best shot at a win might be Best Film Editing, but that could also very well go to Parasite. This is a category where I have to see what the BAFTAs choose before I can tell for sure what’s going to happen. But I’m currently predicting FvF for Film Editing. And I think 1917 wins both sound categories at the moment, just like Dunkirk.
I think Costume Design is between Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Little Women. But someone pointed out to me earlier today that no one in the last 20 years has won Costume Design without the Costume Guild nomination, which would rule out Little Women. I’m going to wait and see what the Costume Guild and the BAFTAs say before making a final prediction, because I’m genuinely torn on that category. The costumes in Jojo Rabbit are fine, I’m just not sure they’re worthy of the win.
I picked First Man too for VFX last year, and my reasoning was it was the most Oscar friendly film of the bunch. I get your reasoning for The Lion King, but I think the Visual Effects for 1917 will be more up the Academy’s alley. The Jungle Book benefitted from none of those other nominees in that category really being Oscar type films. This year you have The Irishman and 1917 in the category and both are BP nominees. But come on, is Irishman really going to win this category for de-aging effects haha?! I think not. 1917 is such a visually stunning movie, and it’s clearly a favorite this year among the industry. I think 1917 takes Visual Effects along with several other Oscar wins that night.
Yeah! 1917 reminds me a lot of Gravity (2013). Visually stunning, takes all the techs including film editing (which 1917 is not a contender for).
Ford v Ferrari in Film Editing- yes! That is a DEF possibility! Has a foreign film ever won film editing? Don’t get me wrong, the pacing in Bong Joon Ho’s film is exceptional, but Ford v Ferrari seems to have more speed- literally. And it’s also a best picture nominee. If 1917 takes the sound categories, it might be F v F taking that editing. Damn this is hard!
OH! And what about the Annie Awards and Animated Feature? Is Toy Story 4 going to lose now? Or is it still a safe bet?
Toy Story 4 lost at the Globes but it quickly recovered at the PGA. I think because the Globes gave both Toy Story 2 and 3 major prizes they felt it was time to give someone else a turn. But I don’t think the Oscars are going to feel the same way, and I think Toy Story 4 is the safe bet at the Annies and the Oscar.
Klaus literally just won the Annie.
Oh, I hadn’t looked yet haha. I forgot that they were happening tonight. My bad, sorry! God, now I don’t know what’s going to happen with Animated Feature.
The BAFTAs I feel will clarify a lot of these below the line categories for us.
I have the same predictions with two exceptions :
1) i’m sure picture is going to Hollywood
2) sound editing is actually going to 1917.
I just switched to 1917 on Goldderby. I realize now these go hand in hand.
I did score 100% for the Cinema Audio Society, and ranked 9/900. I usually don’t rank that high lol! I did pick Ford v Ferrari. But not sure how they lineup vs the Oscars.
There are occasional Sound category splits. Three years ago Arrival took Sound Editing while Hacksaw Ridge took Sound Mixing. But still, it’s very rare.
Yeah it is rare, and there’s the notion of the category each film will place in. Are the CAS reliable compared to the Oscars?
You have me leaning on Ford v Ferrari now in editing. I just don’t know if Parasite is going to be seen as an Editing Movie to voters. It might just win International Film.
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood wins costumes/production design
1917
Picture
Director
Cinematography
Sound
Sound Mixing
Visual Effects
War films don’t tend to win Makeup (eg Saving Private Ryan).
Score is the one I WANT WANT WANT Newman to win. I know Joker is a hot ticket, and I always enter various contests to separate my up in the air categories. But still, my final Predictions Video is the one that matters and the one I post here and YouTube. I will make it after the WGA awards.
By the way thanks for sharing your knowledge. It’s fun to talk to people who GET THE OSCARS. My friends and family at home have no clue how this world works.
Again why do they need two sound categories. Just have all the sound people who worked on a film be nominated in one.
Do not listen to these petty Guild awards! Do not abandon our greatest filmmaker, Quentin Jerome Tarantino! Victory is ours!
I know you’re being sarcastic. But I’m a Tarantino fan, and a proud one! Regardless of how many wins OUATIH pulls off, I’ll love that movie forever!
Despite this result, Parasite will win best picture at the Oscars.
I like your confidence but it has lost to 1917 in direct competition at PGA, GG director and DGA. I think it’s behind, if it wins WGA it gets closer
Parasite surely needs the WGA win. No SAG ensemble winner that lost PGA and DGA has won Best Picture Oscar without a WGA win. I mean this could be an unprecedented year, but it would benefit Parasite to get a WGA win.
Yes WGA would help it’s chances stats wise.
But people are forgetting the biggest stat- in 90 years, no foreign language film has won best picture.
I think it will happen at some stage, but I see it as a sweeping epic for some reason.
At this point, such a statement sounds increasingly delusional.
I think many Parasite fans (myself included) are overplaying the SAG win. I have yet to see 1917, but the stats show 1917’s increasing chance for the win.
::sob::
I think it’s the timing too, if SAG had of come the day before PGA and not after, the perception of a “shift” to Parasite would have not been there.
Yeah, I think the fact that Parasite only managed to garner 6 nominations and fail to score any acting nominations made me think the support isn’t that massive. This year’s race is tighter, thus it’s harder to “steal” the support since other films are beloved, too. That also made ppl think Parasite’s SAG win was a shift in the race when in reality it might not mean that way, rather it shows voters have difficulty to choose the ultimate winner. Sure, Parasite has support and chances, but so far the marching band is the loudest for 1917.
All good points
By the way Director and Cinematography have lately been tied to each other. The last Best Director winner whose film was not nominated for Cinematography was Martin Scorsese for The Departed in 2007.
Yeah, ’cause I’m sure people didn’t think the same thing about Spotlight’s SAG win, or Crash’s… (When Ebert was saying “watch out”, ’cause SAG is actors.) If Parasite wins WGA, it will be just like those. And doing a little better than Moonlight, in fact, ’cause SAG win.
It’s possible definitely, it doesn’t seem like anyone hates Parasite, and I loved Parasite! But will it pull off Original Screenplay now that Best Director is out of the question for Bong Joon-Ho?
There are a few who hate Parasite even on this forum.
I can’t stand Once, but surely Tarantino will get the screenplay bone? For gods sake his film was the favourite a few weeks ago.
The Academy reveres Tarantino as a screenwriter. Before the Globes in 1994 and 2012, Screenplay was very competitive and they gave him the win setting him on path to win the Oscar for both Pulp Fiction and Django Unchained.
Aren’t two enough for him? Two’s company, three’s a crowd. He has symmetry with two book ends!
Katherine Hepburn’s 4 Oscars trigger my OCD. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/45f7e8aa8fcbd9373b3cf06744b83dc1225ff3f998cb1346927d479ee65afa20.jpg
I still haven’t forgiven AMPAS for On Golden Pond wins. Henry Fonda sure, but a 4th for Katharine? Against Streep, Sarandon, Keaton and my favourite Marsha Mason. But they do make a handsome quartet don’t they. 4 hot naked guys together. Woo hoo!
Hepburn was always a mistery to me. She was once labeled as a box office bomb, her personality was not very likeable, her femininity wasn’t alligned with the US and Hollywood’s concept of femininity at that time, I don’t think she had ever said anything bad about the Academy, but she was always a no-show and only appeared once to present an award. I think, towards the end of 1960s, people just started to respect and admire her more.
Seems right since she won three of her Oscars when she was older.
And it’s so not his best work or anywhere near it.
ASC – Deakins.
Of course the legendary Roger Deakins wins Cinematography! Can’t wait for him to win his 2nd Oscar!
Of course.
Once Upon A Time is still going to win because the pundits say so
If Tarantino is a “drunken buffoon” then what is exactly Joaquin Phoenix?
Sober.
It’ll win Supporting Actor definitely, and if it wins Original Screenplay at BAFTA then it’ll win that too. But not Picture/Director. It’s my favorite of 2019, but I’m being objective.
Parasite is winning original. No one wants to give QT a 3rd
If Parasite is able to win both the WGA and the BAFTA, then it’s winning Original Screenplay, but Tarantino has won every Original Screenplay prize up to this point. And him not being up for WGA can’t be held against him because he’s ineligible as a non-WGA member.
Tarantino is revered as a writer, don’t discount him.
If he does he’ll equal Woody Allen and 3 Original Screenplay Oscars.
And he’s that loved as a screenwriter to pull off that feat.
Maybe, I’m not so sure. Not this year with this film.
If Tarantino loses the BAFTA for Original Screenplay, I’ll concede the race to whoever wins there.
Yes wise. Interesting 1917 is not nominated for Bafta screen play. It probably won’t win the Oscar but if Tarantino wins BAFTA he still has to face Parasite and 1917 at AMPAS.
Nah, I don’t think 1917 is winning Original Screenplay at the Oscars, because it’ll win other categories. I view 1917 as the equivalent of The Shape of Water. A lock for Director and a few technical categories, but not a contender to win Original Screenplay. My guess is they’ll spread the wealth and give it to OUATIH or Parasite. And Tarantino’s WGA ineligibility can’t be held against him. He’s won every Original Screenplay prize this season, and winning at the BAFTAs would show that we would’ve probably won WGA too had he been eligible.
They’ll stop saying so after tonight.
Has any film other than Brokeback won GG best drama & director, PGA and DGA and lost best picture?
La La Land almost but it was GG- musical
Saving private Ryan?
Yep. Brokeback has the obvious gay issue. I have no idea why Shakespeare came over the top of Ryan doesn’t anyone?
They both lost to the SAGE winner- omg parasite is winning best picture.
Seems too late in the race for any controversy to bring down 1917.
Throw in WGA and the answer is only Brokeback, as neither La La Land nor SPR won screenplay Oscars. That was the perceived weakness of both LLL and SPR all along, neither won many screenplay prizes. Brokeback, on the other hand, was as dominant there as it was at Best Picture and Director prizes. And in virtually all cases where Brokeback and Crash went head-to-head, Brokeback won (most deservedly).
1917 isn’t winning WGA.
I believe your right. Also Shakespeare in Love’s victory came when the Oscars were held in late March and Saving Private Ryan opened the previous July. On ther other hand, 1917 had just opened nationally two weeks ago and the ceremony is also in two weeks. So although it’s not fully over yet, 1917 has indeed caught momentum.
Nah, Shakespeare In Love’s victory was due to Miramax’s campaigning, I believe. It’s a good film, nevertheless, and I think it was a better fit to Academy’s taste at that time.
It’s interesting. I watched a video on the Best Picture race that year between Saving Private Ryan and Shakespeare In Love. If you saw Saving Private Ryan in the theater, the chances are you liked that one more, but if you saw Shakespeare In Love at home on a screener, the chances are you liked that one more.
Sure. Films with big production values, detailed framing, meticulous sound designs (like Saving Private Ryan) are better be enjoyed in theater than at home. I think our experiences will be positively enhanced if any films are seen on bigger screen (with more advanced audio)
That’s why I try to see everything in theaters. With The Irishman, I didn’t want to wait an extra two weeks to watch it on Netflix, I wanted to see a new Martin Scorsese gangster movie on the big screen.
Yeah, anything to make the viewing better
Well, Harvey Weinstein was a very savvy campaigner. Shakespeare has the benefit of two months of campaign between the Globes and the Oscars.
Yup..and that’s also why his name was mentioned repeatedly in winning speeches
Because Shakespeare in Love was the better movie?
One word: HARVEY
Yes.
Will a war movie with a one-take illusion achieve what a war movie with big stars couldn’t? At this point: probably.
CAS to Ford v Ferrari and Toy Story 4.
Scripters went to Little Women and Fleabag.
The only Bong Brett is getting tonight is the bong he’s going to need to console himself
He he. The ‘Bong hit’ jokes write themselves
Fuck yes
8 Oscars for 1917
1 for Once
0 for Irishman
8 Oscars? I so far think it’s winning 6; Picture, Director, Cinematography, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, and Visual Effects. What else do you think it’s winning?
There’s a slight chance there could be a split with Parasite taking BP but likely it’s 1917 for both.
It’s 1917. We now have our official frontrunner for Best Picture and Best Director In 2 weeks. Parasite will very likely win just one Oscar.
Parasite will win Original Screenplay, Editing and Intl Film.
Interesting stat: no film has won the Eddie and Oscar without a BAFTA nom since Unforgiven.
Neon should have pushed the opening of Parasite forward. It is bongkers that it’s still not out yet in the UK.
I bet they got lazy and thought to themselves: “Well, an Oscar will bring more money than a mere Palme d’Or would, so we’ll wait”.
It was Curzon (UK distributor) who decided to push Parasite to a February 7th opening with a full 3 month theatrical window. Neon is only the US distributor. This poor decision likely cost Parasite some tech/craft nominations. Absolute insanity when they could have made buckets of money from all the Oscars buzz rather than after the Oscars when all the buzz dies.
Also, I agree with you that it could very well win International Film, Editing, and upset Tarantino for Original Screenplay.
Tarantino wins!
What, at bingo?
tarantino is a “drunken buffoon”
Buffoon, and yes he is. And he’s going home with Zero Oscars for Once
Please elaborate your hate to Tarantino…
I think he’s a film God.
In a world in which Iñarritu has 2 oscars for directing and Tarantino has none…
Alfred Hitchcock Sidney Lumet
Blasphemy.
Kubrick, Bergman and a hundred others who were never even nominated… soon, Mendes will have two.
Then what did you think was bad about this one? OUATIH was the most fun I had at the movie theater last year.
I could write a book. But I won’t rain on your parade…tonight.
Ok. I’m not offended by other opinions. Please elaborate.
I have elsewhere on this site, so not really in the mood to get into it now. But I’ve never bought what QT is selling (with the exception of Jackie Brown, a special case to begin with) and OUaTiH did nothing to change that. Confirmed my opinion more than anything else.
And I respect your opinion regardless.
Well that’s it then
DGA blog says it’s Mendes
Yep
1. 1917
2. Parasite
3. Ouatih
I still don’t understand how 1917 able to gain all this momentum in such a short time. Seriously, right before the guild started, I would put it at best 4th-5th. Probably even lower.
Easy: Late entry, fresh on people’s minds, an impressive achievement and not really very controversial. Hits all the right buttons and is in English.
Yep lightning strike. The race doesn’t always need momentum. Recent years have shown earlier release dates but going back further the late calendar release and a longer Oscar window from noms to winners used to be the norm .
Sasha has written about the need for “a story” behind the movie. This has Mendes honoring his grandfather and the antiwar angle — the latter heightened by almost-daily events in the real world.
And almost as overrated as The Irishman . Good movie but when the herd mentality sets in sheep follow each other over the cliff .
Right herd mentality when a film you aren’t wildabout catches fire. That argument could be used for the other films too.
It is a remarkably late run. It was 4th at best before GG maybe even 5th. I would have had Once, Irishman, Parasite and maybe even Marriage Story ahead of it.
The Annies, PGA, and Golden Globes all gave different films best animated feature. And they all have gotten the last four years to match with the Oscars as well, so this category is the most up in the air its been since 2014. Which is really exciting.
Honey Boy wins
Let’s see if I go 4/4
DGA – 1917
USC – Jojo Rabbit
CAS – Ford v Ferrari
ASC – Joker
Hold on to your butts.
Cigarettes or ass cheeks?
Maybe both. I think Sam Jackson’s character in Jurassic Park was a smoker.
But I need one hand free…..to type.
“It’s going to be a bumpy night “
Nearly 70 years on, ‘All About Eve’ is still so watchable and quotable.
“One good burp and you’ll be rid of Miss Caswell” (played by Marilyn Monroe)
Strap yourselves in folks !
No guts no glory: Parasite winning DGA.
Scorsese winning would be an Ngng pick this year. And that’s not something I’d have said any other year. Mendes or Bong or Tarantino any of these winning would not be a big surprise I don’t think. But whomever does win, will steer the race into another leg of the Race .
Not my most eloquent contribution but essentially the outcome here will have HUGE implications.
Parasite winning the DGA wouldn’t be that surprising at all. I still think it’s going to Sam Mendes for 1917, but if there’s an alternative choice I would imagine it’s Bong Joon-ho.
Bong received the biggest standing ovation of the evening now. Deeply interesting.
Going to bed, by the way. DGA is far too boring to even consider staying up for – redundancy, I know… (‘DGA’, ‘boring’ – same thing, really…)
You never know though….
Good night Claudiu. Thanks for undertaking the big ballot again.
Nah, with DGA, you always know… 🙂
Lol
And an interesting stat I just discovered: all eleven SAG+WGA winners went on to win screenplay at the Oscars! Including two that didn’t win any of the major T.V. precursors for screenplay (Argo and Gosford Park). And only 5/6 Globe + Critics Choice + BAFTA screenplay winners won the Oscar. Up in the Air lost to Precious (whatever the reasons), arguably a stronger BP contender. (Up in the Air was missing editing and SAG Ensemble nominations. Precious was only missing the ACE nomination.) After it even won the WGA, too… So, I wouldn’t say the stats would be too clear either way, were Once to win BAFTA screenplay, with Parasite winning the WGA.
Almost forgot to post this here too, actually – was about to go to bed…
Apologize in advance for posting this to as many threads as possible, for obvious reasons! It’s easy to skip over, though, once voted.
All who have seen each of the nine Best Picture nominees at the Oscars this year (give or take a Ford v Ferrari, which clearly cannot win either the online simulation or the Oscar, and maybe also Marriage Story, for the same reason, although I’m less decided in that case) are invited to post their ranked ballots in reply to this comment – with sincere thanks in advance -, for my 9th Annual Best Picture Preferential Ballot Simulation!
Since I haven’t seen Little Women (or Parasite or Jojo Rabbit – but at least the first of these I’m seeing very soon) myself and won’t be able to until the 7th or 8th (which is when it premieres over here), I will refrain from voting this year. (My mom also won’t be able to vote, for similar reasons.) Unofficially, here is my ranking of the six movies I’ve seen thus far:
1. Marriage Story
2. Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
3. 1917
4. The Irishman
5. Joker
6. Ford v Ferrari
(I also didn’t vote last year, as I didn’t see The Favourite in time. My mom did, though.)
The interesting thing about this is that there is now a six-year streak going of the likely runner-up for Best Picture at the Oscars finishing either runner-up or, in one case, tied for second place, in this simulation (as Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri was eliminated in third place only after a tie with Call Me By Your Name). The beginning of this streak coincides with when I started holding these at both Awards Daily and the now defunct IMDb Message Boards. (The first two years I only did it on IMDb.) So, perhaps, with everybody’s help, we can once more get a not insignificant clue about which of the contenders will NOT win Best Picture…
The history:
2011 The Social Network —– details not saved (second place was Black Swan, I believe)
2012 – not held –
2013 Zero Dark Thirty ——— 37-24 over Silver Linings Playbook
2014 Her ————————– 33-33 tied with Gravity, won 19-18 on total first place votes
2015 Birdman ——————– 62-61 over Boyhood
2016 Mad Max: Fury Road — 51-37 over The Revenant
2017 Moonlight —————— 41-32 over La La Land
2018 Phantom Thread ——— 39-33 over Call Me By Your Name
2019 The Favourite ————- 45-30 over Roma
I will more than likely both tally the votes and announce the results on Monday.
1 Jojo Rabbit
2 Parasite
3 Marriage Story
4 Joker
5 Once Upon A Time in Hollywood
6 The Irishman
Ranked ballot:
1) Parasite
2) Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3) Jojo Rabbit
4) 1917
5) The Irishman
6) Little Women
7) Marriage Story
8) Ford v Ferrari
9) Joker
1. The Irishman
2. Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
3. Marriage Story
4. Joker
5. Parasite
6. Little Women
7. 1917
8. Jojo Rabbit
9. Ford v Ferrari
1.Parasite
2. 1917
3. Joker
4. Little Women
5. Marriage Story
6. Jojo Rabbit
7. Ford v Ferrari
8. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
9. The Irishman
1. Parasite
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Ford v Ferrari
4. Marriage Story
5. Joker
6. The Irishman
Have yet to see Little Women, 1917, and Jojo
My predictions for tonight:
DGA – 1917
USC – Jojo Rabbit
CAS – Ford v Ferrari
ASC – Joker
We placing bets?
😛
Parasite goes home empty-handed…