This has been a strange Oscar year. All the unusual factors that were in play when it started remain in play. The crushingly short season, an extremely competitive year, the “woman factor,” the “#OscarsSoWhite factor,” the Twitter hive mind factor, the foreign language factor, the streaming factor, the box office/popular film factor — all of these elements play into this year’s Oscar race in a big way.
Three things have happened that have never happened before, or haven’t happened in a while. The first: Parasite became the first foreign language film to win the SAG-AFTRA ensemble vote. The second: 1917 became the first “late breaker” to win the PGA since the Academy pushed the date of the Oscars up by one month in 2004. That was the year The Aviator won the PGA and Million Dollar Baby won the DGA and the Oscar. Both films came in late, mid-December, but Clint Eastwood prevailed. Sam Mendes has now won both the PGA and DGA.
The third thing is that there has been a welcome increase in films directed by women, leading to many significant films by women released in 2019. Because none got in for Best Director, that may put pressure on the WGA and the Academy to “right” the “wrong,” which means that Greta Gerwig is likely to win for Little Women, even though the narrative structure is a bit, shall we say, confusing to some. But she’ll win for many reasons. The first is that many people are fine with the way she chopped up the straightforward plot of book and re-order it Gerwig style and even gave it a Lady Bird-esque ending — with Jo not really wanting to be married at all but doing it anyway to please the people who wanted her to. By the end, she is mostly lost, not found. So feminists love what Gerwig did to the traditional story which has Jo actually concede to being in love with her soul mate by the end. The second reason in favor of winning this year is that she did not win for Lady Bird. In the past, women who have been nominated for Best Director and Best Screenplay and Best Picture at least won Screenplay: e.g., Jane Campion for The Piano and Sofia Coppola for Lost in Translation. Hence, Gerwig winning this year would effectively be a reward for for Little Women and Lady Bird both. The third reason is that a win for this film will go a long way towards — something; I don’t know what word to use — but it will help relieve some of the heat that no woman are in Best Director. A win for Gerwig can then be seen as a win for all women.
At WGA, Gerwig is competing in Adapted Screenplay against Taika Waititi for Jojo Rabbit, Steve Zaillion for The Irishman, Todd Phillips and Scott Silver for Joker, and Micah Fitzerman-Blue and Noah Harpster for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. Gerwig should take this easily, but if there is any heat at all from the others it’s probably Jojo Rabbit. Just a hunch.
Still, Gerwig should be able to win the big three writers awards: Scripter, WGA, and Oscar, I figure.
Original Screenplay is harder to figure out. Slightly. That’s because Quentin Tarantino, who won the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay, isn’t a member of the Writers Guild and thus is not nominated.
Here’s how little the WGA has mattered to Tarantino in the past: In 1994, Four Weddings and Funeral won the WGA, while Pulp Fiction won the Oscar. In 2012, Zero Dark Thirty won the WGA but Tarantino won the Oscar for Django Unchained.
The only time Tarantino was nominated for an Oscar and didn’t win it was in 2009, when The Hurt Locker beat Inglourious Basterds because The Hurt Locker was winning Best Picture and Best Picture puts a hard lock on Screenplay a lot of the time, though not always.
In the years Tarantino won Screenplay, the WGA winner was not a threat for Best Picture in any way. But now since Best Picture often tends to be in the Original Screenplay category, he has much stronger competition, namely from the two other frontrunners, Parasite and 1917, which both have WGA and Oscar nominations.
Tarantino having such a strong Best Picture contender up against two other really strong Best Picture contenders is a tough nut for us to crack, predictions-wise. Does a win here mean potentially a win at the Oscars? How many WGA winners have gone on to win Best Picture? How many WGA winners went on to become Best Picture winners?
The trend used to be that Best Picture heat resided in the Adapted Screenplay category, not Original — but that has now switched. Let’s look at Adapted and also note that if any film were to beat Little Women — like, say, Jojo Rabbit? Or even the Irishman? That might be a hint of some wiggle room in the Best Picture department. Not necessarily but maybe, because Best Picture is chosen with a preferential ballot and strange things can happen when people push various clusters of films to the tops of their lists.
WGA Adapted winner — Oscar Adapted Screenplay winner — Best Picture
2018: Can You Ever Forgive Me — BlacKkKlansman — Green Book
2017: Call Me By Your Name — Call Me By Your Name — The Shape of Water
2016: Arrival — Moonlight (put in Original at WGA) — Moonlight
2015: The Big Short — The Big Short — Spotlight
2014: The Imitation Game — The Imitation Game — Birdman
2013: Captain Phillips — 12 Years a Slave (WGA-ineligible) — 12 Years a Slave
2012: Argo — Argo — Argo
2011: The Descendants — The Descendants — The Artist
2010: The Social Network — The Social Network — The King’s Speech
2009: Up in the Air — Precious — The Hurt Locker
2008: Slumdog Millionaire — Slumdog Millionaire — Slumdog Millionaire
2007: No Country — No Country — No Country
2006: The Departed — The Departed — The Departed
2005: Brokeback Mountain — Brokeback Mountain — Crash
2004: Sideways — Sideways — Million Dollar Baby
2003: American Splendor — Return of the King — Return of the King
2002: The Hours — The Pianist — Chicago
2001: A Beautiful Mind — A Beautiful Mind — A Beautiful Mind
2000: Traffic — Traffic — Gladiator
WGA Original winner — Oscar Original Screenplay winner — Best Picture
2018: Eighth Grade — Green Book — Green Book
2017: Get Out — Get Out — The Shape of Water
2016: Moonlight (Adapted at Oscar) — Manchester by the Sea — Moonlight
2015: Spotlight — Spotlight — Spotlight
2014: Grand Budapest Hotel — Birdman (WGA-ineligible) — Birdman
2013: Her — Her — 12 Years a Slave
2012: Zero Dark Thirty — Django Unchained (WGA-ineligible) — Argo
2011: Midnight in Paris — Midnight in Paris — The Artist (WGA-ineligible)
2010: Inception — The King’s Speech (WGA-ineligible) — The King’s Speech
2009: The Hurt Locker — The Hurt Locker — The Hurt Locker
2008: Milk — Milk — Slumdog Millionaire
2007: Juno — Juno — No Country for Old Men
2006: Little Miss Sunshine — Little Miss Sunshine — The Departed
2005: Crash — Crash — Crash
2004: Eternal Sunshine — Eternal Sunshine — Million Dollar Baby
2003: Lost in Translation — Lost in Translation — Return of the King
2002: Bowling for Columbine — Talk to Her — Chicago
2001: Gosford Park — Gosford Park — A Beautiful Mind
2000: You Can Count on Me — Almost Famous — Gladiator
Now, just for the hell of it, let’s look at years where Best Picture winners didn’t win WGA but were nominated for WGA and won Best Picture anyway:
Original:
2017: The Shape of Water (lost WGA and Oscar to Get Out)
2018: Green Book (lost WGA to Eighth Grade)
Adapted:
2002: Chicago (lost WGA to The Hours)
2003: Return of the King (lost WGA to American Splendor)
2004: Million Dollar Baby (lost WGA and Oscar to Sideways)
When I look at this, I think it’s possible that 1917 can probably not win Screenplay in a competitive year, while Parasite winning Screenplay could theoretically push it to the top in Best Picture. But remember, we’ve never had a film win Best Picture when it had another prestige feature category to win in (Foreign Language, Animation, etc). If another movie wins besides either of those two, like Marriage Story (which would give us a Greta-Noah double win) or Knives Out, then Parasite is probably not winning Best Picture.
Whether Parasite or 1917 wins the WGA this weekend, that still won’t tell us if Once Upon a Time in Hollywood will win the Oscar. In short, it’s all up in the air.
Speaking of Up in the Air, that is a great example of how a movie can win everything but lose the Oscar at the last minute — literally EVERYTHING. That is the difference when you get actors involved. But remember, just because Parasite won the SAG that doesn’t necessarily mean Academy actors are on board the same way, since 50,000 of those are AFTRA members, with a lot of them being on-air broadcast personalities.
That’s all I got. Who do you think is going to win?
On ScreenDaily there are 7 anonymous voters for BAFTA who revealed their picks, and 5 have chosen Parasite for BP and BD… I don’t mean to get hopes up, but still…
Roma also won BP+BD at the BAFTAs over hometown favourite The Favourite. I expect Parasite to do the same, although this should be a tighter race.
Is the BAFTA’s Best Film curse still a thing?
Perhaps it breaks this year!
It’s an interesting stat, but is it really that telling? Anyway I thought it would be broken by 3 Billboards 2 years ago.
Eh, “curses” are never real. I don’t buy for a second that there is a negative correlation between winning BAFTA and winning the Oscar. More likely it’s just a somewhat weaker positive correlation, and the BAFTA has been “unlucky” these past years.
I guess that the stat started in 2015, the year of Boyhood VS Birdman? Like you said, the years forward from 2015 could be just failed attempts at predicting, but I’m kinda glad that BAFTA went their own way (assuming those were passion votes)
Of course. But it’s fun to joke about…
So I guess you don’t expect it to win at the Oscars, then… 🙂
Still never happening.
This year, watch out for Best Production Design. All of the Best Picture frontrunners are nominated there, and none of them stands out that much in terms of production design. It will be a real test of popularity. Honestly, there are so many movies more deserving based on pure production design.
I thought “OUTIH” is soooo locked here?
I’m not that impressed with OUTIH’s production design. It’s good but nothing special. In fact, none of the nominees are that impressive. I thinks it’s anyone’s game.
1917 was extremely impressive to me. That night scene in the bombed out city was breathtaking due in part to the production design.
Hollywood should naturally be strongest, given how they recreated a lost era of the town where voters live and work and some have even worked at that time. It also swept the critics in this category. I don’t see it losing just yet.
But I’m not sure about the level of difficulty or creativity there. It’s like thinking The Two Popes was going to be nominated because they recreated the Vatican. Well, they could go in and study the Vatican. My original thought was Hollywood wins here given the scope and especially the wonderful spaghetti western posters. But I’m not convinced. 1917 would be an odd winner but could do a mini-technical sweep. Jojo Rabbit is a wild card for me if they want to award it something. Parasite could win on a pure passion vote. Irishman has some period detail, but always hidden in the background. I need the guild and BAFTA to chime in, but I’m thinking it’s between 1917 and Hollywood.
I finally got to see 1917 at the theater. I ranked it as #2 among the 9 BP nominees right after Parasite because of Parasite’s stronger writing and acting. I don’t think the continuous shot is a gimmick, to me it enhanced the overall experience. To say the continuous shot is a gimmick is like saying the jump cuts in Godard’s films are unnecessary, or the long take in drama films and super zoom into the actors’ faces are gimmicky. No. When they are done correctly, they help the audience to be more indulged into the story and cinematic experience. And I think the continuous shot in 1917 was done and used correctly. I agree that plot-wise, there aren’t much to tell to the audience. It is not bad at all, there are weights to the story, and I think this film is more of a technical achievement than it is about the depth of story-telling, which again, I have no problem with since technical achievement is a part of cinema, just like story-telling is.
The thing that I’m still wondering is if 1917 checks all the boxes of an Oscar-winning movie (the content, not the correlated wins and nominations). Oscar-winning movie always features characters that are going through something emotional for them (kinda like a journey), which the audience can relate to some degree. I think 1917 has that, which is what I like about the film because from the start we are following Schofield and Blake on their mission. Their on-screen chemistry is great and their acting made me care for how their mission would end up, and for themselves as soldiers. Dunkirk has that, but I’d argue that Dunkirk is more about the horror of WW1 captured from the land, sea, and air. It is wider in scope; which also made me consider categorizing 1917 as more of a survival film than historical-war film (Dunkirk fits the latter for me).
I can’t really argue that much about Mendes about to win his 2nd Oscar for directing. Between American Beauty, Revolutionary Road, Spectre, Skyfall, and 1917, those films show what he can do as a director (not that each film is a masterpiece). In the end, though, it would be great if BD goes to Bong Joon-Ho instead cuz he is a master. Oscar isn’t always about quality, but it is a prestigious award, anyway.
For that matter, if 1917 ends up winning BP and BD, I wouldn’t mind cuz I think it’s a great film and the wins are justified. If I were to ignore all stats (and judge purely on the cinematic experience), I think it should easily win Cinematography, Production Design, Sound Mixing, and Sound Editing.
Oh, and George MacKay should’ve been nominated for Best Actor.
The Berlin Film Festival announced its lineup today. Strong female showing with 6 films directed by women out of 18 in competition. Hillary Clinton, Cate Blanchett and Sigourney Weaver also expected to bring girl power to the red carpet!
https://deadline.com/2020/01/berlin-film-festival-lineup-competition-announced-revealed-live-1202845048/
An incredible list!
They also have some really big names in the smaller lineups (Cristi Puiu, Matteo Garrone, Jia Zhang-ke) so this is probably going to be a pretty great year (and proof that Berlinale did need a new artistic director)
WOW. THAT is a selection.
Why is the WGA the last big award? Aren’t the BAFTAs way bigger, with a huge AMPAS overlap? And BAFTAs are given out the day after.
Not in terms of predictive power for BP… (But overall of course they’re bigger.)
I would like to note that in the last 7 years I’ve done my preferential simulation the only two times a movie that didn’t have crippling stats issues that could not be overcome won said simulation it also won the Oscar. (This, in addition to the stat about a movie finishing in second place or a tie for second never winning at the Oscars, either.) Once, in a big upset, and with only a WGA win (and a SAG acting win) to show for it, guilds-wise – Moonlight. (The other one being Birdman.) Remember Sasha’s Twitter polls and how they helped her predict Spotlight and Moonlight? (There, too, I think the next two years she did it movies won that had no real shot at the Oscars – Call Me By Your Name and I’m not sure about last year. Was it Roma or The Favourite leading the Twitter polls?) Here is, again, the history of my simulation’s results (noting that The Social Network, the first year I did it, is an exception to this rule):
2011 The Social Network —– details not saved (second place was Black Swan, I believe)
2012 – not held –
2013 Zero Dark Thirty ——— 37-24 over Silver Linings Playbook
2014 Her ————————– 33-33 tied with Gravity, won 19-18 on total first place votes
2015 Birdman ——————– 62-61 over Boyhood
2016 Mad Max: Fury Road — 51-37 over The Revenant
2017 Moonlight —————— 41-32 over La La Land
2018 Phantom Thread ——— 39-33 over Call Me By Your Name
2019 The Favourite ————- 45-30 over Roma
2020 Parasite ——————- 46-14 over The Irishman
César Awards : Polanski’s An Officer and a Spy leads nominations with 12 nods, followed by Les Misérables and La Belle Époque at 11, Portrait of a Lady on Fire trails with 10. Each of these 4 films is nominated for Picture, Directing, Screenplay and Acting. Merlant and Haenel are both nominated in Lead Actress for Portrait of a Lady on Fire.
https://deadline.com/2020/01/cesar-awards-nominations-2020-roman-polanski-les-miserables-portrait-of-a-lady-on-fire-full-list-1202845041/
Fatima al Qadiri being nominated for the score of Atlantics is E V E R Y T H I N G. The Césars rock!
Also, without having seen any of the other nominees, I’ll go ahead and arrogantly state that if Noemie Merlant doesn’t win Best Actress, there’s no justice!!4!
I don’t quite know what to make of it. An Officer and a Spy was well received by the public and critcs alike, and with the cast and craft involved it was always going to be strong enough to get nominated, but will the controversy hurt it for the wins?
I think Les Misérables is the favorite actually. The question is could they give Polanski the directing prize since a film can’t cumulate Picture and Directing? Portrait of a Lady on Fire will probably have to make do with Lead Actress and Cinematography. I wasn’t expecting La Belle Époque to be so strong. I haven’t seen it and my mother hated it, but it has a beloved cast and a popular comedian-turned-director so I’m guessing that explains it.
Atlantics could win best first film if Les Misérables wins BP, since a film can’t cumulate both prizes either.
I think best actor is the greatest, and very well deserved, prize An officer and a spy will get. I don’t think that all the controversy since the film’s release will end with the Academy giving prizes to Polanski’s persona.
I would say Les misérables gets film, Portrait gets director and one of the actresses. I’d like Atlantics to win best first film but becareful with Au nom de la Terre huge success… Forestier for actress on a second role and maybe Menochet for second role actor. He was incredible in Custody last year and he went home empty handed while the film itself slayed…
No tech nominations for Dupieux’s Le daim ? The heck ?
What techs would you have nominated Le daim in? I can’t come up with anything where it would be really worthy
Edition and sound, for sure. Didn’t like the film that much, but his films are really well crafted on the technical side.
And I just realized… No Sybil, no Synonymes… Virginie Efira, Adele Exarchopoulos and Tom Mercier. No Best Revelation Actor nom for Tom Mercier ???
No Sandra Hüller either! Perhaps Synonyms didn’t qualify as a French film but Sibyl at least should have popped up in the acting categories, preferrably also everywhere else
And… although I haven’t seen the film I can certainly say that Zahia Dehar should’ve made the Best
RevelationPromising Actress list.If she’s not there after all the praise she’s received is because of that Ribery scandal and her former life as a prostitute. Which becomes even more problematic because, well, hi Polanski.
Best Foreign-Language Film:
Pain and Glory (Spain)
Young Ahmed (Belgium)
Joker (United States)
Lola (Belgium/France)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (United States)
Parasite (South Korea)
The Traitor (Italy/France/Germany/Brazil)
It’s like The Oscars Redux.
I’m baffled by how well the Desplechin did, after what the general reactions out of Cannes seemed to be (I thought it was fine). I think it’s a pretty good list in general even if certain things annoy me (Les misérables is I guess inevitable as a winner here and Grâce à dieu must have gotten in because it feels like an important vote)
I don’t know much about these nominees. The middlebrow films I watched didn’t get nominated. Only Portrait I really liked. Even J’accuse, I intended to see it but got lazy at the last minute and decided to wait for the VOD.
I haven’t seen that many either (Portrait, Les misérables, Grâce à dieu and Roubaix of the picture nominees and certain other nominees) but at least the ones I’ve seen are mostly pretty good
Christophe does it seem like the Cesars nominated fewer films this year? It doesn’t seem as diverse a set or number of films as in the past. I’ve only been following them for about 5 years but it seems narrower?
Not sure what you mean. Seems like last year: 7 nominees for Best Film, 40+ films nominated across the board. Is there anything missing you wished to be nominated?
A stat working against Parasite which isn’t tremendously prohibitive, but is pretty hard to break, it seems: only three movies have won Best Picture despite having fewer or the same number of nominations as at least seven other films in the Oscar nominations rankings list: Grand Hotel, The Greatest Show on Earth and Green Book. The next-highest such number for a Best Picture winner is five (movies tied with or ahead of them in the nominations count), which has happened six (further) times or so, by my count.
I just want to thank you for your continued collections of impressive stats. I really need to set aside time to read and reread all of your latest posts. You are always so insightful and informative. This year, as many of the recent ones, will prove to be one for the stat-busters no matter which way it goes.
Wow, thanks!… 🙂
Yeah, I guess Parasite has the foreign film stat to contend with… The Irishman (and, like it, Jojo Rabbit) already has the stat about not winning BP/BD/screenplay at Critics Choice or the Globes, another 100% stat. And Once has the stat about not winning PGA/DGA/WGA. Yeah, there really isn’t anything that wouldn’t break a big stat – yet again…
I meant 100% stats – I don’t necessarily consider years in which stats with at least two exceptions break stats-busters.
I’m pretty convinced Parasite & Little Women win Original & Adapated on Oscar night.
But I’m predicting Knives Out to win Original with the WGA.
(Only because I’m predicting 1917 for BP, and while I can’t see it winning screenplay anywhere, I also can’t see Parasite winning SAG Ensemble, ACE Eddies & WGA without winning BP – possible, I guess)
I can’t see where Greta Gerwig will loose. She got the biggest applause at the Oscar nominees luncheon. Followed by Robert DeNiro and Bong Joon Ho. And the acting front runners Zellweger, Pitt, Dern.
I think Robert de Niro’s was clearly the biggest, loudest and longest. Followed by Bong Joon Ho. Gerwig also got a big one, but not as big as these two.
Oh my we have the applause meter again. See DGA.
I hope it’s Parasite and Jojo Rabbit.
SAG is important for Parasite but it like 1917 missed acting noms, which challenges the theory its big with actors.
Parasite win here keeps it in the race and would be its first major win in direct competition with 1917.
I thought Marriage Story would be strong for screenplay, particularly if they go for dialogue driven, like last year. But marriage story apart from Dern seems to have faded.
The WGA is most certainly of all guilds LEAST accurate indicator who wins best picture look how infrequently all 3 or 2/3 match up in Sasha stats.
They don’t lie. Parasite won’t win best picture. Sag ensemble historically even if it wins wga despite winning ace Eddie which no longer reflects best picture winner as much as it used to but frankly losing pga and dga is huge blow to its chances .
1917 appeal for war film esp WWI is stuff of history literally purest expression yet of filmmaking as art form interpretation whilst honoring spirit and essence of this gave their life in WWI ..in Australia we call them the ANZACS …though that was other major battle in Gallipoli in WWI I just strongly sense 1917 is type of war film that Academy finally ready to honor after far too long snubbing this superb remarkable at time horrifying and all too dramatic and absolutely essential genre.
Winning pga and dga is supposed to lock film that won these into best picture it overdue stat wise to do this repeatedly so soon after winning film wins best pic.
Realistically just cos Parasite has huge following Sasha doesn’t mean not be truthful about it.chanced History and trends are not in it favour win best picture sorry to say.
And unapologetically I put JOKER as an ‘ upset’ for best adapted screenplay look it very likely ( but I can’t totally rule it out) win best pic , it long shot for Phillips win best director it been easily biggest event film sensation that exceeded studio expectations as how R rated dark twisted seemingly crazy themed movie could reach out and conquer hearts and minds of filmgoers to set new standard as most popular r – rated film ever, and you just don’t do that unless screenplay at very least is accessible. I think academy could embrace this risky venture as they could admire how risque material can be so accessible to sooo many film audiences it astonishing achievement how many r- rated black very violent dramas of this setting have appealed to sooo many before? Forget deadpool this is serious filmmaking and it 11 noms reflect that.
Academy reward ambition honestly I say with respect the ” backlash” factor cos insufficient women is NOT an excuse to overlook more ambitious risky screenplays that paid of tremendously for filmmaker and studio in joker.
I may get it wrong but don’t be surprised if academy give It consolation . Academy supposed reward most ambitious screenplay that makes restrictive material in year like this all more ambitious. And fulfilling to film audiences
It academy own fault for lack of femalecontenders as best director over too many years thr y let politics color way too much of award season who wins who doesn’t sacrificing yet again possibly merit of true best screenplay.
Even if JOKER doesn’t win wga it may have lot more support to do ‘ upset ‘ for script at Oscars.
Remember what ‘ silence of lambs ‘achieved that year I bet it was not favourite win best screenplay at Oscars that was last time a truly deeply dark twisted plot blew socks off film audiences globally and over 2.5 decades plus bit more l8tr we have that in form of joker.
If on fair assumption it doesn’t win best picture regardless of wga choice a Oscar boil over in screenplay can happen ..And JOKER one to do it.
When are academy gonna look past their own self inflicted gender noose around their necks stop sacrificing true most ambitious and fulfilling screenplays? Tiresome stiff by wga Nd academy don’t u think?
What nonsense.
War films have been reliable performers with the Academy over the decades. The very first Best Picture Oscar went to a war film, Wings, followed over the years by All Quiet on the Western Front, Gone With The Wind, Mrs. Miniver, Casablanca, The Best Years of Our Lives, From Here to Eternity, The Bridge on the River Kwai, Lawrence of Arabia, Patton, The Deer Hunter, Platoon, Braveheart, The English Patient, and The Hurt Locker (and you could probably fit a few more in there).
Nope take closer look learn u movie history of those u mentioned 3/10 just 3 at the MOST are bout WWI rest WWII it is by evidence your own admission 45 years bout since last WWI movie made simple as that
I think Aaron’s point was more about actual combat and warfare being the main narrative and majority of sequences not just the subject or background of war.
Actually, WGA winners nominated for Best Picture win MORE often than PGA winners nominated for Best Picture. The DGA has a better percentage than both BUT it does much worse in the preferential era. MUCH worse…
Well respectfully then you factor in the record low nominations and fact it foreign language film AND fact how much longer will academy continue discriminate against war film’s? Win best picture? Esp won as important as 1917 on my 3-4th WWI film ever made first in 50 hrs? And then academy further seriously consider. ‘ Parasite is not great film but another huge step forward for foreign film’s considered as best picture nominee AND foreign language film nominee . Let give foreign film’s chance to grow and thrive so hence let us have a future even BETTER more satisfying foreign film who’s appeal even greater means so much more to film industry than ‘ Parasite ‘ does.
Truth is ANY file on under false conflicts bodes far worse win best picture in modern era than any other genre. Inc war movies.
I expect that trend to continue. Consider mentality of academy. PARASITE chances and it ‘ small target ‘ as in very localized story in very limiting setting who appeal I believe is greater with film public than with the academy.
Otherwise why only 6 nominations? Don’t u think itfatally flawed film’s with nearly double amount nominations fare less chance than a film with 6 noms?
There just far far far too many stat busting happening for parasite win best picture. I think it best chance of biggest wins script editing and foreign language at the MOST.
Consider: stat busting factors for parasite beat comp.:
1. Need overcome the ‘ no foreign film ever won best pic And foreign language.
2. Need overcome the ‘ Subtitle curse’ ( Roma obvious comparison
3. Needs overcome the SAG ensemble curse minus individual acting SAG nom ( u admitted to me in previous post this is particularly significant factor that work against parasite winning best pic.
4. Even if it wins wga. And it win ace Eddie. Only on one occasion has a film that not been nominated for individual SAG lost pga and dga AND scored on my 6 noms won best picture .
5. A gigantic nomination differential of minimum – 4 nominations between parasite and the top 4 most nominated film’s. When was last time in Oscar history other one time in 2000’s maybe 2 the equal 5th Most nominated movie won best picture ?
6. Academy overdue embrace a epic style film though debatable 1917 actually really epic in scale contrast other war film’s won’t work against it.
But I admit. IF it wins the wga AND best picture at BAFTA but it also need win foreign language film then I concede it becomes dark horse . I still don’t think London film critics determine parasite is easy favourite e in best picture their choice over LOOK parasite best foreign language film. Makes no sense if it not best foreign language film what right does it have win best picture? Make no sense lack of logic by London film critics circle.
There is one other massive factor. Even in ‘Moonlight ‘year or ‘Crash ‘ shock win , neither of this film’s needed to compete against the amount of quality and quantity of film types and level of other nominations namely this year you have :
1. A great depression truly unique what I call ‘ degenerative epic’ in film noir tradition blending black humour and dark drama- JOKER which I still think being grossly underestimated by lot of you and is true dark horse really .think showmanship + authentic presentation of period academy very very rarely see on big screen great depression as semi period setting albeit gritty realistic dark thr y love that stuff. 11 noms – combined with certainty win best actor = historically very potent contender
2. A ‘ journeyman ‘ style unique point of view artfully masterfully crafted WWI epic reminds us of TRUE perils and importance of WWI in unals of history . 10 noms
3. A Fable with epic backdrop of transitional first major change of Hollywood told in most inventive and boldest way this pivotal shift in attitudes that transformed Hollywood in large part how we identify with it today ( Once Upon a time…in Hollywood) ALSO incredibly rare yet very authentically presented 10 noms- supp actor potent near dark horse behind 1917
4. I listing In Order of Noms quantity I be objective put my anti- netflix bias aside but Irishman 10 noms most noms combined between traditional and acting noms…cannot be underestimated even though I certainly don’t like it. Despite it overlong I see objectively speaking how this modern reinterpretation of this ‘ godfatheresque ‘ tale up to that standard acc critics and fact got 10 nominations means it surely has more chance than Parasite win best picture.
5. Jojo Rabbit a war time parody/ drama. 6 noms crucially unlike Parasite it landed in all key categories pic, director, script and acting still feel it deserved 6 noms.
Now this is point a near unprecedented amount of superior far far rarer quality renowned stories and styles and performances combined overall genre types so so so rarely wining best pic. Compared to Parasite which , it korewn setting notwithstanding could well be dismissed as ‘ inter class warfare fable ‘ and as inspired as filnmwkimg may be there no individual acting noms scored only 6 noms AND is not at all unlike other contenders something that anywhere near as rare as other contenders.
And London film critics predicted BAFTA choice best pic incorrectly many times before. Sooo…nope parasite need to win BOTH wga AND the BAFTA to erase it lack of pga win and dga win.
Finally in past years we had following of truly original very ra r my made unique genre films win.
In no particular order : t the Kings Speech, Green Book, Moonlight, No Country for Old Men, The Shape of Water , these are just few that did not only reinvent way story was told but it setting and places and part epic big picture feel delivered it win. Inter class warfare is not big picture ideal and Academy know deep down surely sheer superior depth of quality parasite need overcome win best pic.
Finally it look truly bad if for far too many times since the pref ballot that most Oscars best pic win is is 3! Can academy afford ignore public cares? I guarantee you one thing IF in incredibly unlikely event Oscar go for parasite win best pic, then ratings will marginally improve as night wears on and pple see trend direction academy going for best pic. If 1917 looking like win it ratings will be big possibly best in few years BUT in unlikely thing I think many re a one I outlined above not as unlikely as Parasite win best picture JOKER wins ratings could be best in over a decade amongst best v since 2000 DONT underestimate academy appeal for ratings.
Oh and all film I listed above won best picture were not divisive and viewers clearly academy members felt warmth to these movies. Parasite is cold and clinical it ending will hurt it chances best pic. No not llfilm’s need end in triumph. But I tell you now as twisted as JOKER ending is we can admire sense of redemption of central character Todd Phillips DARES us to feel relief for murderous crazy individual that he forge himself new identity sense of purpose in city lost it way. Oscar live r3demptoon story whether be twisted which is ultra rare for film like Joker to a lead nominations let alone get best pic nomination and the no sense if r e demption in parasite only despair, anger and payback how is that a theme that academy can possibly embrace against backdrop what it happening ?
Record low nominations? Come on! PLENTY of movies have won BP with 6 nominations or fewer, ESPECIALLY in the preferential era(s)…
Parasite isn’t winning BAFTA BP, of course. But neither did the last 5-6 Oscar winners. 🙂 And it’s not divisive at all, as far as I can tell. The best argument for 1917 is that it’s positive/straightforward/not dark, which is not the case for Parasite, from what I understand. Movies like 1917 win more often than movies like Parasite. But not always – far from it!
Stats against 1917:
– no movie has ever won BP without either acting or editing nominations. 85 years.
– no movie since Braveheart has won BP with zero SAG nominations. Roughly 25 years.
– directing winners OFTEN fail to also win BP in the preferential era.
– no movie has won BP after being snubbed for acting at the Oscars and losing the WGA since 1988 or thereabouts.
And I could go on… 🙂 So, yeah, Parasite certainly doesn’t have bigger stats issues than 1917!
Sasha, you seem to have misinterpreted the ending of Little Women.
[SPOILER]
Jo doesn’t marry the professor, and she is far from lost. She changes the ending of *her book* to feature a marriage in order to appease the publisher and win the rights to her copyright. She remains unmarried and on her way to a successful career as a writer (as did Louisa May Alcott).
Correct Tom.
[SPOILER]
The ending was meant as a joke, much like Adaptation.
I need help with this. Once the Professor visits the March family again, Jo is clearly smitten, and after he leaves for the train station to depart for California, her family makes her admit to them that she “loves” the Professor. So family and friends quickly bundle her into a carriage and race through rainfall to the train station in order to catch the Professor before he boards his train. At the station, he and Jo lock eyes, smile tenderly and in the rain kiss under an umbrella.
After all that, plus, in the movie’s concluding scenes, seeing the Professor happily cavorting among everyone else, we’re meant to understand that he and Jo are NOT married? Really? So, he’s happy simply teaching at Jo’s school and being near her? That’s enough for both of them? So, what was the frantic chase and the kiss under the umbrella meant to show us — that they just wanted to be close friends? And how do we know they’re not married? Based on the above, I assumed that they were. What have I missed or misunderstood?
Right before the very cliche Hollywood “chase him to the airport” scene, the film cuts to Jo speaking to her publisher. He tells her that her protagonist (the “Jo” character in the book she has written) needs to end up married. She agrees, so long as she can maintain the copyright to her book. She says something along the lines of “if I’m to sell my lead character into marriage, I might as well get some of the money.”
So the giddy chase scene is not reality, but Jo’s rewritten ending that she inserted to please the publisher. That’s why it has such a different tone from the rest of the film. This is exactly what Louisa May Alcott did when she published Little Women. At her publisher’s insistence, she wrote Jo into a marriage, but retained the copyright of her book.
Gerwig essentially blends Jo and Alcott at the end of the film, portraying Jo March as the author of Little Women, which she proudly watches bound in the publishing house in the final scene.
Thank you. I couldn’t have intuited this. You and Gerwig are subtler than I am.
I just thought I’d note this:the color pallet is also returning to the brighter “past/novel” style in that scene where they have founded the school and when she goes inside the train station with the more yellow hue coming from the electric lights, implying either that it’s more the story than reality or that it’s a return to the happy days of the girls’ youth. So at the very least starting from him being there at the train station is probably meant to be messy depending on how you choose to read the changes in the color and thus goes with the script’s argument
I like that take. I will need to watch the film again.
In the script, the last scenes (page 118 and beyond, right after Jo agrees to change the ending of her book) do bear a red inscription that reads: “THE PRESENT IS NOW THE PAST. OR MAYBE FICTION.” and afterwards only “FICTION (?)“, so it’s really up to the viewer to decide what to make of it. But (and that’s a big BUT) the previous scenes where Jo gets ready to go out and even the scene when she arrives in a carriage and runs to the station do NOT bear the inscription, implicating that these were supposed to be real like everything we’d seen so far. So are we really to believe that somehow she rushed to the station after being convinced by her family that he loves her and then nothing happens? I would also add that Jo’s feelings for the professor had already become clear before he came to visit her family, when she expressed regret that she may have lost him.
To me, Jo was just pulling the publisher’s leg, pretending there would be no happy marriage ending even though he had requested one earlier, and Greta was pulling a joke on the audience too, pretending that it would be out of character for Jo to have a happy marriage ending (in her book and in real life) when she had balked at it earlier and wanted to affirm her own independent spirit instead. The chase to the station combined with the publisher meeting also make for a more exciting and suspenseful ending, reinforcing the impression that it was more of a trick than an actual fantasy ending.
https://pmcvariety.files.wordpress.com/2019/12/little-women-by-greta-gerwig.pdf
Many thanks. I’d downloaded the script but hadn’t yet gotten around to reading it. I need to! When you suggest that a “trick” is not the same as a “fantasy”, what’s the difference between those two things? You can see I’m still struggling. Besides consulting the script, I need to see the movie a second time, too! :<) I much appreciate having your thinking.
From the script, Gerwig aims for it to be ambiguous; it’s more a you-can-have-it-both-ways thing.
The script is ambiguous but the execution on film is decidedly not.
Yeah I was wondering what Sasha was talking about. I absolutely love what Gerwig did with the ending. Saw the film a second time today. I also have no idea how people are so confused with the timeline. Sasha keeps bringing that up. I thought it was really easy to follow, as did my friend I saw it with today. All you really need to do is pay attention to the color. The past scenes are all warmer and more colorful and present day uses colder hues. Keep that in mind and it’s not confusing at all. I thought the past and present were woven together very seamlessly. It is in my top 5 for editing this year.
Quick question: Why are people picking Parasite to win the WGA? Why not Marriage Story? MS was nominated for the same number of big screenplay awards as Parasite.
MS has 8 critics circle wins, per wikipedia. Parasite has 6.
Marriage Story certainly seems more WGA friendly but it has lost a lot steam as awards season has evolved. I don’t think it will win.
How is it up in the air in relation to Once Upon a Time in Hollywood for BP? It’s lost GG director, SAGE, PGA, DGA and ACE.
It’s dead.
Moonlight didn’t win any of those, and it still won Best Picture. ONCE is still alive in the BP race simply because it’s favored to win Best Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay. Most Best Picture winners score a combination of the following: acting, directing, writing and editing.
The only BP winners without a combo was Shape of Water (only directing), Spotlight (only screenplay) Gladiator (only Actor) and Braveheart (only director). ONCE winning both supporting actor and screenplay does indeed put the film in a good spot to win Best Picture.
firstly, moonlight won WGA, so the comparison doesn’t work, and secondly, if you’re relying on the highly unusual moonlight win to support a film for BP, look elsewhere.
DGA/PGA combo has won BP 17/21 times. It has lost 4/21 times. Twice to SAG/WGA, twice to WGA.
You never mentioned WGA in your original rant. You just moved the goalpost. All the criteria you mentioned in the original post, applies to Moonlight. That’s a fact. It didn’t win the GG director, SAGE, PGA, DGA and ACE. Under your logical base, Moonlight would be dead. Yes, Moonlight won the WGA, but it was eligible for the award. ONCE is not.
I am not saying ONCE is going to win, just pointing out how foolish thinking calling it dead.
**you edited your post So I’ll do the same. Its 17 out of 22. You have Apollo 13, Saving Private Ryan, Brokeback Mountain, Gravity and La La Land. That’s five, not 4. You’re still moved the goalpost. Calling ONCE dead is pretty short-sighted.
No goal posted moved.
No film has won in the PGA era without one of PGA, SAG, DGA or WGA.
Once as lost everything so far. You have to show some strength with the guilds. It hasn’t.
Yes. Goalpost was moved. You added in WGA into the formula.
Yes. No film in the PGA has won without one of the big four.
I am not arguing it’s going to win, just that has a chance. Good night.
Every film nominated has a chance. It’s third I think, does that mean dead?
In the context of close races, where either #1 or #2 wins, is third considered dead?
All what I am pointing out that any film that’s favored to win an acting and screenplay award is indeed a major contender to win. Don’t get so triggered by a suggestion that it’s in the running. And if Parasite doesn’t win the WGA and BAFTA, it’s not going to win Original Screenplay over the favorite ONCE.
OUATIH couldn’t even win SAGE or ACE and was snubbed for Oscar Editing. It’s done in as far as Picture and Director. 1917 has this. Only Parasite could upset it.
I think it will be 1917 in original and little women in adapted but parasite wins screenplay at the oscars
I don’t think so, it is not dialogue heavy and won’t win.
Not dialogue heavy?? It’s about two dudes walking a long hike to deliver a message. And they def talk. In fact, I think 1917 will win Original Screenplay at the Oscars aka Hurt Locker style.
Also dear, you don’t have to have dialogue to make a great screenplay. Many elements go into making a story work.
Something that would be significant about Greta Gerwig winning Adapted Screenplay is that she’d be the first woman in 12 years to win a Screenplay Oscar (the last one thus far is Diablo Cody for Juno) and the reason why that’s significant is that women winning Screenplay Oscars was a semi-regular occurence in the 1990’s and 2000’s. Callie Khouri won for Thelma and Louise (1991), Ruth Prawer Jhabvala won for Howards End (1992), which was actually her second Oscar, since she had previously won for A Room with a View (1986), Jane Campion for The Piano (1993), Emma Thompson for Sense and Sensibility (1995), Sofia Coppola for Lost in Translation (2003), Fran Walsh and Philippa Boyens for The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2003) and Diana Ossana for Brokeback Mountain (2005). For some reason it hasn’t happened since Diablo Cody won for Juno.
Personally, I would have preferred if Greta had won two years ago for Lady Bird, since I do think that’s a cleaner, more solid screenplay (or at least more genuine in its voice), but I can live with her winning this for Little Women, because even though the film underwhelms me as a whole, it has individual moments I intend to re-visit many times in the years to come.
Knives Out could surprise here.
I feel like writing is the most interesting race this year on both sides. Acting and director all feel over by now but writing is crazy competitive… WGA in original is probably Parasite but Oscar is crazy competitive. Adapted feels like it is Gerwig but industry seems to like Jojo more than everyone else so could it win? I don’t know and what about The Irishman. I said from the beginning (even though nobody seemed to believe me and they kept saying it is weak) that Adapted is a crazy race this year and I love it. We are also likely to get either Oscar Winner Taika Waititi or Oscar Winner Greta Gerwig and I think that would be amazing.
For Adapted I’ll probably predict the WGA winner at Oscar but I am somewhat thrown by how wildly WGA went their own way last year (in a good way) and wonder whether that could be the start of something.
Honestly, I think this is going to be Parasite and Little Women at the Oscars…
… but Parasite and Jojo Rabbit here.
Would love to see JoJo win