The sound categories are as wide open as any other category at the Oscars. Sound Mixing and Sound Editing could go to the same movie or it could be split up, it could go to a favorite Best Picture contender or it might not. It’s never all that easy to call, but right now, it appears to be down to Ford v Ferrari and 1917. The other two films nominated for Best Picture and both sound categories are Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Joker.
Ford v Ferrari won the Cinema Audio Society (CAS) award and the Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE) Golden Reel Award for Sound Effects and Foley for Feature Film, which would indicate it has a pretty good shot at winning both sound categories. It also has a Best Picture nomination.
History with the CAS is hit and miss: they’ve matched the Best Sound Mixing Oscar six times out of the last 10 years. The MPSE for Foley has an even more tenuous overlap with Oscar: only four winners of the past 10 went on to win Best Sound Editing. Although this year the tightened schedule could mean all bets are off.
If you look back to films that won both the CAS and the MPSE for Sound Effects and Foley, they usually end up winning both sound categories. It was true for Gravity and true for Inception. Hacksaw Ridge only won Sound Mixing against La La Land. But it seems like a fairly solid stat and probably a good bet that vroom vroom Ford v Ferrari seems like a strong bet for both.
If Ford is really the favorite for the sounds (which of course is debatable) it might just win BAFTA and then the Oscar for film editing, too, given that those three go to the same film so often…
I have 1917 in the sound categories right now, but I am not very confident. I feel safer not picking a split.
I do think the sound categories should be combined as virtually nobody understands the distinction between the two. But I think 1917 is favored here.
Yeah, while Ford v Ferrari is loved by many and has that BP nom …….
I have a hard time seeing it winning more than one of the two Sounds. And since I feel that way, I might just go for 1917 for both so as to not miss both.
BAFTA will hopefully help me, a bit.
If we are going to a split year… yes.
If we are going to a 1917 sweep, most technicals are going to go to 1917, undoubtedly. At this point I think 1917 is taking…
Picture
Director
Cinematography
Production Design (yes, because of the scale)
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing
and maybe, too…
Visual Effects
Make up and Hairstyling
Score
… and if it also wins Original Screenplay, somehow, we know it is going to make a clean sweep.
Honestly, I think 1917 is going to be a 7 to 9 Best Picture winner. We haven’t had one of those since Slumdog Millionaire, and we need to remember that only happen because of political reasons (Hollywood signing a huge deal with Bollywood and promoting a pseudo-Bollywood film up to sweep every single award possible, even at the expense of the two most buzzed Best Picture contenders, who were snubbed even of the nominations: The Dark Knight and Wall-E)… and before that, 2003’s Return of the King with 9 Oscars.
If it DOESN’T win Best Picture, though, it will fit the Bohemian Rhapsody, Gravity and Mad Max: Fury Road scheme of winning most awards of the night, then losing BP
I think, on a bad night, 1917 might end up like The Revenant, winning directing, cinematography, and not much else.
I agree with your top 6, but the only category from your maybe pile I see happening is Visual Effects.
I think a more character driven makeup job is going to take home Makeup/Hairstyling (Bombshell, Judy, Joker). The main images of those films scream MAKEUP.
And I think Joker has made a convincing argument for Score and the momentum seems to be following Hildur, though I do have 1917 in a close second place.
I’m pretty much sold on 1917 winning Best Picture at this point.
I think Visual Effects is DEFINITELY going to be 1917. If you look at the history of the category, they usually go for the most Oscar type film. That’s why First Man won last year (which I correctly predicted not to brag). Make Up and Hairstyling I think is between Bombshell and Joker with Bombshell getting the edge. And 1917 could win Score, but I have a strong feeling it’s going to be Joker.
It’s really interesting to look at years when two films are nominated in both categories and wind up splitting the wins. This last happened when Hacksaw Ridge (Mixing winner) and Arrival (Editing winner) competed in both categories. It also happened with The Dark Knight (Editing) and Slumdog Millionaire (Mixing). I’m not sure it gives a lot of guidance towards the kinds of films they’d be likely to support in either category (action-oriented films like American Sniper tend to do better in Editing, except for when Hacksaw Ridge loses; music-heavy films like Whiplash do better in mixing, except when Bohemian Rhapsody wins both) but it does at least offer some proof that voters actually can make a distinction between the two categories and cast a thoughtful ballot.
I still think 1917 is going to win both sound categories, and here’s why: CAS is indeed an important precursor, but 1917 wasn’t snubbed there — it just didn’t screen in time to be nominated. If it had, I’m sure it would have been nominated — and quite possibly won. It’s still a major threat to win both Oscars.
Plus, there’s the fact that not only did Dunkirk win both 2 years ago — it beat Baby Driver in each race. No pun intended.
I can’t see Ford v Ferrari winning both Mixing and Editing. I see it taking Editing and 1917 Mixing or 1917 taking both.