The sound categories are as wide open as any other category at the Oscars. Sound Mixing and Sound Editing could go to the same movie or it could be split up, it could go to a favorite Best Picture contender or it might not. It’s never all that easy to call, but right now, it appears to be down to Ford v Ferrari and 1917. The other two films nominated for Best Picture and both sound categories are Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Joker.
Ford v Ferrari won the Cinema Audio Society (CAS) award and the Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE) Golden Reel Award for Sound Effects and Foley for Feature Film, which would indicate it has a pretty good shot at winning both sound categories. It also has a Best Picture nomination.
History with the CAS is hit and miss: they’ve matched the Best Sound Mixing Oscar six times out of the last 10 years. The MPSE for Foley has an even more tenuous overlap with Oscar: only four winners of the past 10 went on to win Best Sound Editing. Although this year the tightened schedule could mean all bets are off.
If you look back to films that won both the CAS and the MPSE for Sound Effects and Foley, they usually end up winning both sound categories. It was true for Gravity and true for Inception. Hacksaw Ridge only won Sound Mixing against La La Land. But it seems like a fairly solid stat and probably a good bet that vroom vroom Ford v Ferrari seems like a strong bet for both.