The Oscar year started at Cannes, when Bong Joon Ho’s Parasite won the Palme d’Or. Already renowned for his ability to cut deep into the failings of society, with Memories of Murder, Mother, Okja, and Snowpiercer as his calling cards, he toned everything way down for Parasite and made the kind of tight, perfectly rendered film that could easily be set on the shelf next to Hitchcock and Kubrick. It is exacting in every aspect of its storytelling, infused with wry symbolism and bleeding with longing, despair, and hopelessness — much like his other films that catch you in that place of the bottom dropping out of human existence. He doesn’t choose to tell this story in an overly dramatic fashion. Rather, he uses his keen eye for human foibles and satire before plunging you headlong into the truth about who and what we are. Parasite is as funny as it is sad, as ugly as it is beautiful. Although Bong probably did not set out to make it a universal story, it somehow ends up there, especially to those who are worried about the state of the modern world. It is sad that it ends not with hope but with the futility of hope — a glimpse into a bountiful world so few are invited to enjoy. It is Gatsby yearning for the Green Light at the end of Daisy’s dock, the promise of the good life. It is Mark Zuckerberg at the end of The Social Network hitting refresh again and again, hoping for a girl to accept his friend request. It is Charles Foster Kane at the end of the Citizen Kane whispering Rosebud just before he dies. The last gasp of Parasite reminds us that hope, for far too many, is pointless in a rigged system.
Parasite easily won Cannes and then became the most talked about film at every festival it visited. Like Roma the year before, then came the talk about whether it would sweep the critics and then be nominated for Best Picture. It was an easy call that it would be. Then came Venice, which premiered Joker as its Golden Lion winner. Joker would become a lightning rod for critics and other beard-strokers because of its perceived ambivalent attitude toward violence as retribution. It made a billion dollars worldwide and became a phenomenon. Would it be nominated for Best Picture, or was Twitter right — that it was too dark, too divisive to win. I can promise you one thing about Joker: it is one of the darkest films to be nominated for Best Picture since the preferential ballot was put into place.
Joker is defined by the inward pain of its main character — not a villain born, but a villain made. Phillips delivers him to us without apology, without pasting band-aids over the ugliness of what our culture actually is to make us all feel better and pretend it’s not a place where people are cruel, lonely, desperate — and yes, violent. Many of us don’t want that kind of movie because we need movies to reflect back to us our better selves, the lie that humans always need to believe to keep going every day. The lie that is a mirror mirror on the wall, who is the greatest of them all? Joker is a daring, horrifying, wholly unique work, absolutely deserving of its accolades.
Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood had opened in Cannes and right on the heels of Joker got saddled with its own odd narrative as Tarantino got hit every which way, from his treatment of female characters in his past films to his treatment of Uma Thurman. The mob was eager to chase him for … reason to be named later. Just because. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is a film you have to see a few times to really fully get. One viewing isn’t enough because it is packed with so much detail, both in its look and in its storytelling. It’s the kind of film that has a background you need to understand or else it won’t seem as good to you. But if you know the history of the Manson murders, if you know what it felt like to live through it, then this film will touch you deeply. And for me, it has — in a way no other film has this year. It is about a lost era. It is about endings. It is about saying goodbye. It is also about what if. Tarantino is so heartbreakingly talented, Hollywood has never quite known what to do with him. Like Bong Joon Ho, his films are whole universes full of make-believe situations that feel more real than reality itself. Once is a film that does not end tragically, but rather is a respite from the truth. When I want to get happy, this is the film I watch.
Next came Telluride, with the premieres of Marriage Story and Ford v Ferrari, followed by Toronto, where Jojo Rabbit surprised everyone and won the People’s Choice Award. We now had two directors this year working from or within graphic novel/comic book franchises with formidable Oscar contenders: Todd Phillips and Taika Waititi. Both were met with some consternation by the hive mind that covers film online, but both brought movies that would prove to be too adored to ignore. So far, it was looking like there was indeed a visible disconnect between what the online film community thought and what the film industry at large thought.
Jojo Rabbit makes light of Nazis, or so the criticism went. I guess we’re not supposed to make fun of Nazis for fear that people might not understand how bad Nazis were. Well, I think if you don’t know how bad Nazis were, you should not be relying on one movie to teach you history. No one can watch Jojo Rabbit and not get the pervasive underlying horror of it all. From the sickening ways Jews are depicted in propaganda, to the death of a major character, to the bodies of executed Jews left hanging on display in the town square, Jojo Rabbit doesn’t flinch from the horrors of the Third Reich. The point of it is to remember how to remain free and regain your freedom, in spite of those horrors. There has to be room for films like this, not just in the world but in the Oscar race — films that grab your heart and make you feel something. THAT matters.
Along with Marriage Story, Netflix also gave us The Two Popes, two films seemed tailor-made for the Oscar race. Another would join the pack, Dolemite Is My Name, but it never got the attention some of us hoped. Most were waiting on a very big fish, Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman, which looked like a major Oscar contender out of the gate. Scorsese’s coda to the end of a long, distinguished phase of his career, a lovely ode to the mobsters he made famous. Netflix looked like it was ready for the big time with four — count ’em, four — Oscar contenders. They ultimately did land with the most nominations of any studio, but The Irishman, like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, could not find any traction in an era that needed the films to be more “important,” taking a bite of bigger issues. No matter how great The Irishman is, it was never going to be a winner because of its somber narrative. But wow, what a movie. If you can get beyond the film’s slightly problematic first half hour, you see what a masterful filmmaker Scorsese is.
There were so many other fine films that were seen earlier in the year, films by women and filmmakers of color, like Queen & Slim, Late Night, Blinded by the Light, and The Farewell. As the year was coming to a close and the late breaking films were about to hit, it was clear that no film by a woman was going to get into the race unless Greta Gerwig’s Little Women could do it. Both Little Women and Sam Mendes’ 1917 came to theaters in the last moments of 2019 and indeed were put before Oscar voters not long before either of them opened. Both made it onto AFI’s top ten list and were nominated by the Producers Guild, but only one would land at the Golden Globes, the DGA, and the BAFTA and that was 1917.
Sam Mendes’ 1917 really should never have been as good as it is. By design, the big-tech late breaker is not supposed to be something that is pure art, as this film is. It was expected to be everything that it isn’t: a gimmick, a video game. Instead, it is nothing less than a magnificent tribute to the ordinary people who do extraordinary things to live through and survive wars, but not just actual wars, but any kind of difficult moment in history that feels like a threat looms around every corner. What I love so much about 1917 is that it is so tightly constructed, so masterfully written, directed, and acted that, as Dylan would say, it never stumbles — it’s got no place to fall. Any film that could beat Parasite would have to be that good. Because Parasite was the film all others were measured against. But 1917 is that good. It’s haunting and even if you know George McKay’s Corporal Schofield is going to make it in the end, that doesn’t matter because great stories aren’t necessarily those that upend your expectations. Rather, they give you what you expect but just not in the way that you expect it.
It’s always hard to get through these last days of the Oscar race, when everyone takes it all so seriously. We want to get it right, and we want it to BE RIGHT. But in the end, the preferential ballot is a tricky thing. It doesn’t do what film awards SHOULD do. It doesn’t simply select the film that gets the most votes. Rather, it honors the film that is liked broadly rather than passionately. I don’t think this is the best way to decide best, but it is what it is. And what it is is a carefully calculated math formula.
Today is the last day of Oscar voting. This year’s race, like every year’s race, really just wants to be five movies. It doesn’t want to be nine. But there are nine. Only five, maybe six, have a shot at the big prize. Theoretically any of them can win, but the consensus, even in a very competitive year like this one, revolves around five because Oscar voters have only five nomination slots, as do the DGA and the SAG. Only the PGA has ten.
In a competitive year, the noise is deafening around the Oscar race. From critics to bloggers, even now Academy members are on Twitter and Facebook advocating for movies to win. With their hundreds of thousands of followers and major influence, Academy voters themselves are now in the Oscar game as though it were all one big caucus. And it kind of is. With all of that and a preferential ballot, it feels like it could end up any which way.
We know that there are unpredictable factors in play this year that will impact how the race turns out, but the biggest of these is the time frame for watching and voting. It was so fast it went like this for final balloting:
Oscar voters know two things going in: 1) what the frontrunner is, and 2) what their favorite movie is. That means they’re either going to go with 1917 at the top or they’re going to go in with a degree of resentment toward 1917. All of the top contenders, like 1917, Parasite, Jojo Rabbit, and Once Upon a Time, are films that the preferential ballot likes. If Parasite prevails with a huge lead in the first round — which it might considering the advocacy all over the internet for it — then that’s that. If voting continues for multiple rounds where ballots are redistributed, it’s likely that both Parasite and 1917 will be the top two. So it will just depend on how many other voters put these two films close to the top. The more divisive the film, the harder it will be to win.
That helps Parasite probably more than any other movie. But look at the calendar above. Look at how crunched the time is. Given a couple more weeks, a competing narrative might form, but 1917’s wins overall with a consensus (except for SAG) seem to indicate that this voting body won’t be any different.
One thing is for sure: whatever wins, a great movie is winning Best Picture in 2020.
I’m just happy that literally any of the nominees would be a better winner than last years.
Acting winners are set in stone. To all those doubting Zellweger’s win, remember that there is always atleast 1 acting performance from a real life figure that wins, that Zellweger as Judy Garland this year. And she deserves it.
As for BP, really hoping for a OUATIH upset though 1917 will be a great winner after last year’s disastrous choice.
Also since BEANPOLE is currently screening in selected areas, I actually just realized the other day after watching it again that it can be a spiritual sister to 1917. I know it will be a tough double bill but it’s cinema as an eye-opening experience at its best. Both tackle war but different brilliant portrayals of what war have made us become.
In view of the observations around ovations for Parasite at SAG and DGA, and 1917 at BAFTA, I re-watched the golden globes.
Bong was expected to win director and the Irishman, drama.
1917 won both and got 2 standing ovations. During the director noms, Mendes got the same cheer as Bong.
Does being a frontrunner rather than an underdog affect applause? See DGA.
Means nothing, just an observation.
Are you getting nervous? 😉
“We now had two directors this year working from or within graphic novel/comic book franchises with formidable Oscar contenders: Todd Phillips and Taika Waititi.”
No love for James Mangold/Wolverine & Logan?
It’s hard to remember when the last time we had all 4 acting categories completely locked. I seriously don’t see any of our frontrunners losing at all. And they have won all of the major precursor awards (BCFA, GG, SAG, BAFTA).
2017 lol
This is the second time in 3 years that this has happened.
“The last gasp of Parasite reminds us that hope, for far too many, is pointless in a rigged system.”
I love this quote, Sasha – (and the article). This really does define Parastie in so many ways. I’ve only seen it once, though I’m going to watch again tonight – looking forward to it!
The more I read, the more I think Parastie can actually win! It’s going to be a very interesting BP moment! At present, I’m picking 1917. I can see myself making a last minute switch to Parasite though. Either would be a great choice.
As Sasha said, many are choosing Parasite due to passion for the film. And that’s ok. Predictions are always a mixture of stats, gut feel and preferences for the films in the mix.
1. J-Lo was highly touted to win GG, since they like “stars”. Laura Dern won.
2. J-Lo was going to pull an Elba/Blunt upset at SAG. Laura Dern won.
3. BAFTA always has 1 non-American winner. Florence Pugh had the hometown advantage. Margot Robbie and Scarlett Johansson had the benefits of double nominations. Laura Dern won.
There’s a pattern here.
Mmm got me thinking
Parasite was touted to win GG director. It lost.
Parasite was touted to win CC picture. It lost.
Parasite was touted to win PGA. It lost.
Bong was ripe for a DGA upset. He lost.
Parasite was ripe for a BAFTA BP upset. It lost.
My ballot would look like this:
1 – Little Women
2 – 1917
3 – Once Upon a Time in … Hollywood
4 – Ford v Ferrari
5 – Parasite
6 – Jojo Rabbit
7 – The Irishman
8 – Joker
9 – Marriage Story
I loved so many of these. Even though Joker and Marriage are at my bottom, they are B/B+ movies, to me.
Before I get yelled at … ducks and hides.
I STILL think there’s a chance of Scarlett to upset Dern.
Yes, Dern is beloved and has won everywhere. But Jojo is a threat for BP whereas Marriage Story is not. And wouldn’t it just be like AMPAS to provide a shocker — a shocker that some of us figured BAFTA would go for, but didn’t?
Zellweger isn’t even in a Best Picture nominee. And why is Jo-Jo a threat to win BP? Do you know that Laura Dern is on the Board of Governors of the Academy?
Just a feeling; nothing more than that. Maybe it also has something to do with Scarlett being a somewhat more sympathetic character in Jojo.
I’d love for this to happen but don’t think I’d shift my prediction in Supp Actress for Laura Dern. If anybody but Dern had won anything leading to this, like Tilda winning BAFTA I would.
Unless she does a Marcia Gay Harden and win only a critics prize but no precursor on her way to the podium.
At least Marcia Gay Harden won New York Film Critics (which Lauren Dern also won). The precursors were also split that year. Scarlett Johansson has won no precursors of any significance and there is no split in the precursors.
Yes I think it’s unlikely. I referenced Marcia’s win as it was one of if not the most surprising wins of past two decades. Nothing this season suggests anybody but Dern for the win.
But the divorce lawyer in Marriage Story isn’t supposed to be a sympathetic character – even though she explains her actions at one point. It’s not the kind of character that audiences will root for. But critics get it.
I meant Scarlett is more sympathetic in Jojo than she (may be perceived to be) in Marriage Story.
What does Laura Dern being in the board of governors for the academy have to do with her winning an underserved Oscar? So you’re saying she’s basically bribing voters? Or maybe, just maybe – she’s like the senators recently and the voters will pick her out of fear for losing their shirts.
As has been proven time and time again recently – voters don’t pick career awards anymore. All the “secret ballots” I’ve been reading seem to have the voters saying they’re picking others besides Dern. And the ones who are picking her aren’t doing it because of her performance. It’s because “she’s great in Little Women. She’s great in Big Little Lies.” Those same lies were talked about regarding Glenn Close and Sylvester Stallone. One foolish voter actually said “I’m picking Glenn because I loved her in Dangerous Laisions”- a movie that came out in 1988! The voter was picking her for a different performance. And she lost to Coleman.
The Oscar for best supporting actress is Scarlett Johansson in Jojo Rabbit. My new forecasts say it will also win Picture, Adapted Screenplay and Costume Design.
Stop rooting for mediocre art.
And what is “Jojo Rabbit”?
I think this is just my annual week-of-the-Oscars SOMETHING SHOCKING WILL HAPPEN TRUST ME feeling but a Scarlett win somewhere seems like a reasonable prediction.
I think Scarlett will win – someday. Hopefully, when she is undeniable, which is the best position to be in. It’s not here time now.
Many are convinced Parasite is in a much much stronger position than Roma was. Is it? Roma was seen as the frontrunner, it had won GG BD, critics choice BP, DGA, BAFTA picture and director. It’s 2 acting noms made people think AMPAS really loved it, and Green Book had missed Director.
Could parasites screenplay strength just mean it wins screenplay in addition to international film? Is that your extra win voters want to give Parasite?
And I keep on coming back to the older white male demographic- war epic or foreign domestic thriller?
people who wisely pointed out that Roma was too boring and self-indulgent to win were right. also, as other mentioned before, unexpected acting noms don’t carry that much weight when it comes to Picture win. what one should look for are Script and Editing.
I get the boring thing, but it won major picture and directing prizes, creating an “anointed” impression. Parasite hasn’t.
As Sasha said. Predict it if you like
Roma won picture at BAFTA but GB won GG Comedy and PGA so Roma wasn’t the frontrunner or at least not a sole one. poeple were blinded by Director sweeps but Picture/Director splits were already a normal thing. Parasite has SAG win and it’ll win Foreign Picture so while I agree that Roma was in stronger position due to Director sweep, I think that Parasite is much more accessible and it’s also a boxoffice hit not a Netflix thing.
Netflix was a factor too.
You’d think the first ever foreign BP would need the nab big picture and director awards like Roma did.
I’ll still dispute the accessibility issue, particularly old voters and particularly the violence at the end.
Would I sit my mum or my grandmother in front of it? Probably not.
Having said all of that AMPAS choosing Parasite would be an inspired, groundbreaking choice though, the general public would probably say What The, but it would be much much better than most of the recent winners.
Parasite could very well win; doing well on a preferential. But maybe the roars of applause for it at SAG were more for the cast and not necessarily for putting the film in their top 3-4 on ballots.
Sasha on Twitter
“Predicting Parasite to win Best Picture is a brave and impressive thing to do, and many are. Do it because your gut tells you that it will win. But do not use stats. Stats are not your friend here because you are predicting something that has never happened before”.
As I keep saying…
My guts scream Jojo is too cute to be ignored and specially too cute to be actually hated.
Very cute but polarising I think. and given what the top 2 have won, it would be the most shocking BP win ever.
Polarising for those who actually did not see the film. Because you have to be really, really dumb to think Taika glamourises the Nazis or Hitler in particular. The film plays like ET and you are watching (CLEARLY) the world through the eyes (and height at most moments) of a 10 years old boy who was born when Hitler arrived to power, so he has never, ever known anything but nazism. The film kicks the audience in the balls a couple of times and always ridicules the nazis.
I really liked it but it’s not to everyone’s taste. I don’t think it’s whether you are dumb or not
I have a lot of problems with Jojo, and find it more cringey and annoying than cute, but none of my issues are because I’d think Waititi glamourises the Nazis. You’re right that it clearly ridicules them. But still, it’s not only polarizing because some people take issue with its depiction of the Nazis. Others have other problems with it.
I just learnt that Waititi played Hitler only because no one else, would. Wow.
I heard him say that the other producers wanted him to do it.
well, whatever the story, it is perfect that he portrays him… he is an excellent comedian and his Hitler is one for the ages, along Chaplin or Bruno Ganz.
Jojo is very much hated by many.
That is quite extreme
She could also say…
“Predicting
Parasite1917 to win Best Picture is a brave and impressive thing to do, and many are. Do it because your gut tells you that it will win. But do not use stats. Stats are not your friend here because you are predicting something that has never happenedbeforesince 1932”.I give Parasite an edge to win Picture only because Picture/Director split is such a normal thing these days.
I kinda see it too. If there are two co-frontrunners and one film is locked for directing, the other one is more likely to take BP.
The mystery of course is if Parasite and 1917 are co-frontrunners, or rather one is significantly ahead.
given the wins, 1917 should be ahead but since overlap with AMPAS is never 100% who knows? 1917 will have Brit support, that much is true.
I think there’s an older voter/younger voter split too.
I’d love for 1917 to win BD and PARASITE to win BP… I honestly would be happy with half of these winning BP as long as 1917 wins BD.
I think that BD and 4 actors are locked.
And cinematography… But a majority of the awards have some legit competition which is exciting.
Probable order of how they will finish in BP votes:
1. 1917
2. Parasite
3. Once Up a Time in Hollywood
4. Joker
5. Jo Jo Rabbit
My personal Top 5:
1. 1917
2. Little Woman
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. The Irishman
5. Parasite
Tried to post a link to the latest clickbait brutally honest voter ballot. OUATIH for picture and director, 1917 second preference for BP, actor frontrunners except Scarlett in supporting.
These things are posted just for shock value I think.
Voter says parasite doesn’t belong in the same category (BP) as the “regular movies”. Idiot.
“These things are posted just for shock value I think.”
yes.
That voter really triggered me, not with her choices, but her arguments. I found them, shall we say, slightly shallow.
Let’s be honest here. The Oscars are shallow, aren’t they?
It’s about politics, the flavour of the month, the movie of the moment, how well liked people are, who’s overdue, dare I say, how young and attractive people are, etc.
To me, it’s more the exception than the rule that they get it right. This year the top 2 are both great.
Lots of snobs blasting 1917 on here today just because they want their precious Joker to win best film. It’s losing! As I explained before, all of this nonsense regarding the “gimmick” in 1917 is not what the story is about. If I were sitting next to you in the theater and you said that out loud, I would ask the movie ushers to kick you out. You should say that insulting stuff to San Mendes’s face! Then there are those knocking American Beauty. Bringing up the metoo movement and blasting Kevin Spacey. I think the younger generation just likes to complain for the sake of complaining! It’s like my bridge club that meets every Wednesday. Harriet always pouts when she has to bid spades.
Now- with that being said, The Irishman is still winning big on Sunday. So you can stop all this pointless babbling about 1917 and Tarantino’s 9th film. He’s only done 9 movies and he’s expected to win another screenplay award? That’s funny.
Total agree Gail!
1917 is NOT remotely about the “gimmick,” but is an emotionally powerful story of heroism.
The Irishman is not winning big. Also the internet hates American beauty now.
Oh big surprise. And I’m sure you’re one of them Blake. Guessing you’re in your 20s. Another sheep that used to like the film but then Kevin Spacey got outcast and now suddenly it’s the Cool thing to hate the film. Sorry dear it still won 5 Oscars.
Recently i saw little women and 1917 and even if I don’t like war movies and romantic 19th century classics i have to admit they’re both great movies. Probabily i would have give a nomination to McKay (even if phoenix and banderas performances remain my favourite) and what can we say about Pugh? What an incredible actress (i can’t believe Roinan has 4 Academy awards nominee and Pugh just one). Having said that, for me Parasite and Dolor y Gloria remain the best movies this year by far followed by Uncut Gems and Midsommar. In My opinion the wright nominees should have been :
-Picture :
1) Parasite
2) Dolor y Gloria
3) Uncut Gems
4) Midsommar
5) 1917
6) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
7) Joker
8) Little Women
9) Richard Jewell
-Director :
1) Safdie Brothers
2) Almodovar
3) Bong
4) Mendes
5) Aster
-Actor :
1)Phoenix
2)Banderas
3)Sandler
4)McKay
5)Driver
-supp.actor :
1)Pitt
2)Etxeandìa
3)Chalamet
4)Garrel
5)Song Kang Ho
-Actress :
1)Pugh
2)Haenel
3)Cruz
4)Johansson
5)Merlant
The other categories quite reflects my thoughts. I would give the oscar to Bong for Original screenplay, Todd Phillips for the adapted and of course Deakins for cinematography (even tough i think Shier in Joker was phenomenal too).
If I were to rank the nominees…
1. 1917
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. Marriage Story
5. Parasite
6. The Irishman
7. Joker
8. Ford V Ferrari
9. Little Women
I love these unnamed voters who talk to media/bloggers and give their true thoughts on movies and who the voted for and why. It’s a tiny sample but nonetheless fascinating.
I love it even more when some people change their reasonable predictions to something unreasonable because one voter said they voted this or that way and then look stupid when awards are given out and unreasonable prediction bombs as expected. it’s super tiny minority’s opinion and they all customize their answers for the press, to make them sound more bombastic, acerbic, shocking, etc. it’s a show.
”This year’s race, like every year’s race, really just wants to be five movies.”
Call me old-fashioned, but I wish we’d return to only 5 Best Picture nominees. I hate the preferential ballot and don’t think I’ve agreed with a single winner since the Academy expanded the field. I miss the old days when the movie with the most nominations often won Best Picture, or when the Best Picture winner usually went hand-in-hand with Best Director. Also, the Oscar nominations seemed to be spread among a wider variety of films, especially in below-the-line categories. There were more surprises. This year, there are 4 movies with at least 10 Oscar nominations, and it feels as if Academy voters only watched a small pile of films. They nominated ”Joker” for Costumes? They nominated ”1917” for Makeup & Hairstyling? Contrast that to the old days when the category for Costume Design often featured films that were NOT Best Picture nominees. All of this year’s Costume nominees are also Best Pic nominees. ”Aladdin,” ”Dolemite Is My Name” and ”Rocketman,” to name but a few, were more deserving here than ”Joker.”
I miss the old days when the movie with the most nominations often won Best Picture, or when the Best Picture winner usually went hand-in-hand with Best Director.
You want things to be predictable? And you’d rather Cabaret winning BP instead of The Godfather?
As for your other complaints… those got nothing to do with the expanded ballot but the shortened season.
I think Cabaret is actually better than The Godfather
You’re entitled… But Sight and Sound ranks TG at #21 for greatest movies of all time. Cabaret is nowhere to be found in the top 100.
#314 at They Shoot Pictures, Don’t They is nothing to sneer at, though
But I think we’re looking at different lists. The BFI Sight and Sound only goes up to 100?
Sight and Sound goes to 250 in the version I see. But yes, I was referring to a different list, They Shoot Pictures, Don’t They? which kind of puts several lists into one to make a kind of definitive film canon. That’s 1000 films long (The Godfather is in #7th place) and I’d argue #314 is pretty impressive on that list
Top 1000 in an all time list is impressive any way you’re looking at it. btw, do you have link for this list you’re looking at?
I’d imagine that links won’t be accepted on this site but on Letterboxd under the title TSPDT THE 1,000 GREATEST FILMS (2020 Edition) and also at the moment in “popular lists” at the Letterboxd homepage
You can add a link and I’ll manually approve it.
That probably wasn’t a problem this time but thank you for letting me know. I’ll remember that in the future
I do love “Don’t They”. I like “Cabaret” too.
I don’t care
But they are both in the masterpiece category (at least for me)!
For me, too
I would argue that this year’s extremely small nominee pool comes more from the very shortened season than the expanded Best Picture field. The films nominated for BP were the films with the biggest campaign push, and clearly the only ones most voters made time to watch in a short season, b/c there was so much conversation about them. I think we should have a guaranteed 10 Picture lineup in the top category. Nearly every publication releases a top 10 for the year. And giving voters 10 nomination slots has already proven to help include genre films that would be otherwise stupidly passed over, no matter how deserving.
I agree, 5 nominees, plurality ballot. Yes it may have meant La La Land instead of Moonlight, but thems the breaks.
I much preferred moonlight but you can’t say La La Land didn’t deserve to win after it cleaned up the other awards.
Preferential ballots allow for backlash and deliberate placement of votes to harm films.
The joker costume and make up noms are truly ridiculous and I really liked the film.
Anyone can do that clown make up.
Yes, I don’t get the make-up nomination for Joker. It’s like, oh there’s obvious make-up in this movie, let’s nominate it. It’s really lazy.
Also the costumes. It’s just a bright color suit there’s nothing special about it. Was watching a episode of Project Runway that had a Rocket man challenge. They had some of the costumes on display how did that not get a nomination.
I’ve finally seen all the nominees for BP. My ballot would be…
1. The Irishman
2. Parasite
3. Once upon a time in Hollywood
4. Little women
5. Jojo rabbit
6. 1917
7. Ford v Ferrari
8. Joker
9. Marriage story
1. 1917
2. Parasite
3. Joker
4. Jojo
5. Irishman
6. Little Women
7. Ford v Ferrari
8. Marriage Story
9. Once upon a time
1. Little Women
2. Parasite
3. Marriage Story
4. The Irishman
5. Ford v Ferrari
6. Jojo Rabbit
7. Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
8. 1917
9. Joker
Seeing Little Women in less than 48 hours, most likely. Will have to take a bit of a trip to the other side of town to do it, but it’s worth it. 🙂
(will see Little Women next week, haven´t seen FvF and Jojo)
1. Once upon a time in Hollywood
2. The Irishman
3. Parasite
4. Marriage Story
5. Joker
6. 1917
An over-reliance on a statistical pattern to asure yourself that a film you don’t like, or you as see as the main opposition to your favourite, can be hopefully discarded as a serious potential winner is a false and flawed comfort in my view. Trying to use a stat as a mighty, impenetrable shield.
That a foriegn language winner has never won Best Picture and quoting the “0 out of 90 wins” stat as almost predictive of why Parasite won’t be winning this year seems to me to demonstrate a lack of appreciation and understanding of that stat and its current relevance.
For example, how many foriegn language films were nominated for Best Picture in the first two years of the Oscars?
Contrast that answer with how many have been nominated in the last two years. And then consider the strength of these recent contenders.
Further, how many foriegn language films were nominated for BP in the first 25 years of the Oscars; versus how many have been nominated in the last 25 years of the Oscars?
Also, is the current percentage of international Academy members higher or lower than what it was back when Wings, and The Broadway Melody, were winning?
Of course it’s still a thing, with major reasons supporting its continued existence, but I think the “0 for 90” stat needs to be viewed in historical perspective.
Or to put it another way, the “0 for 90” stat needs to be seen in connection to other stats with which it is connected.
Firsts do happen and Parasite does seem to have built a successful and unprecedented pattern of making them.
And one final point: there is the fact that people can often quite like to make, or be part of making, firsts.
In some ways an unbroken stat can become its own target; it’s continued success can sometimes attract its downfall.
“Firsts” have been happening recently. So, yes.
The 0 for 90 stat WILL be broken. Roma almost did it, Parasite is close, and if Parasite doesn’t do it, the next big foreign film will have huge momentum.
Stats are predictive not prescriptive. They can be broken.
We can’t ignore the foreign language stat, however, and I’ve actually been told several times on here that I can’t use it.
That’s silly.
I prefer 1917 but I would never say you can’t use SAG, acting or editing noms stats, because you have to.
You can argue on the relative importance of missed nominations and wins and in the contest of a close race, the fact that parasite has another best picture category to win might decide it. It might not.
Oh it YOU tell me something Chris are you not aware you back here on proviso you admit you were out of line for your suggested anti Semitic slant at me calling my name ‘ Reich’ there NO justification for that don’t exploit award daily generosity to you. You owe me an apology you can’t say you are ignorant or you didn’t know what you were saying . I KNOW you know EXACTLY what you said I may just forgive you for your antisemitic slant at me IF you issue apology in front of everyone as it serves as an example of making everyone aware forms of anti-Semitism are not permitted or racism you didn’t think I let go of it without an apology did you? 11 years I been on this site and you ONLY one suggest racist anti Semitic terminology directed at me oh Nd block Me and we see what happens when I report your ambivalence to the webmasters ..blocking me on this matter tell me you DONT care how offensive Jewish people like me find the word ‘ Reich ‘ yes everyone that what Chris Darris did his justification cos he didn’t like my writing style ? See this is type of behaviour that leads to extremism at times someone doesn’t like someone else’s approach and so slanders them or part of their name c’mon Chris I giving u chance to apologize ..democracy is not unconditional nor is it on the web nowadays thankfully stronger stand taken against anti Semitic speech written online as damn well should be so Chris so you regret what you insulted my first part my last name or not?
100% spot on there the pref. Ballot has reduced who ultimately wins best picture to maths and calculations. Look academy should not purport to act like the conflicted farcical outcome of the fukin ‘ iowa caucus the democrats messy affair has been…It should simply not shape what wins best picture fact i s MOST people like you and me year on year since politically drenched pref ballot introduced have disagreed more than ever with each other within each other and furthermore no coincidence that ratings have dropped.
Like it or not you can bet academy still desperate to win ratings ratings deem what shows pple care about. Oscar doesn’t give a fuk like in the pre-pref ballot era . The more they rush awards season the more pissed their integral traditional viewers and critics would be.
Here’s a question for you all when politics dictates how process of artistic cinematic achievements are chosen ? What do you get ? The fundamental problem and g
Flaw that haunted Oscar since the’dark knight snub ‘: as Sasha says:
” the preferential ballot is a tricky thing. It doesn’t do what film awards SHOULD do. It doesn’t simply select the film that gets the most votes. Rather, it honors the film that is liked broadly rather than passionately. I don’t think this is the best way to decide best, but it is what it is. And what it is is a carefully calculated math formula”
Now if an institution doesn’t do what educated well to do silent majority of informed film goers expect to see reflected in how academy eventually distributed the awards, thr y get given a big ‘ fuk you ‘ so here basic maths for academy and it comes with a stark warning for future awards seasons :
What happens when you announce a semi comic book touchstone seminal moment in film making achievement in Joker get 11 noms lead the field then as likely seem case of wins 2 what you get to common sense followers of ratings crowd that still Oscar rightfully needed ignores year on year who know one of most nominated film’s of that year hence 11 noms or films with 10 noms incredibly all equal second most nominated o me behind the leader, could in worst case scenario only win in this order of Oscar Dare to do this:
1917 – 4 Oscars all tech inc only director out of 10 noms
Ouatih- 2 Oscars only art awards outta 10 noms
Irishman ( ok Netflix factor make it null and void but for point of maths here) – 0 Oscars out of 10 noms
Jojo Rabbit 2 wins out of 6 noms screenplay and art award
Parasite -say it ain’t so 4 awards Inc pic script 2 tech awards out of 6 noms.
So what do you get when outcome of pref ballot is least nominated and by comparison don’t care what anyone says more indie therefore less picky enthused talked about film – that honor goes took her by a MILEyour wrong their Sasha and your wrong about Joker being the darkest of noms disappointing untrue assessment that it one thing insist it fact it another when someone distorts common sense parasite nobody wins every loses in Joker as I said before it villain murderer yes but this highlights Sasha why u don’t appct joker cos u don’t understand it as well say I do that it one characters finding peace of mind in his own way out of chaos bring fed lies and false hopes before hid joker personage. Parasite which by far has most hopeless twisted demrb5ed ending of any Hollywood movie made since 2000 . Everyone loses simple as that no parasite is darkest film by FAR film’s ending rather than body shape it mood ultimately u know.
The most talked bout film is JOKER cos of other reasons u outline Sasha this is factor that if it weren’t for screwed up pref ballot it be certainty more so than now to win.
So to common sense eye math is this as illustrated above if you academy do NOT at LEASTtale politics out of pref ballot and simplify it then if you cut to enlist nominated film to win only 2 Oscars repeatedly over and over when it s anyehere from 8min- over 10 noms, then the ratings will decline by that no differential – 20% at minimum to last year.
Film audiences not idiots who expect every star wars or comic book adaptation be nominated best picture they always been amongst us intelligent thinking people who distinguish between quality and pure popcorn entertainment . I didn’t route for justice league or rebooted latest trilogy star wars win best pic for instance.
But type of though idea of what academy is stand for when academy self implode away what they uses to be no matter how much world changes social media and internet the see always be fundamentals look after in yiyr own backyard they called u foundations .
So it hugely risky gamble keep awarding under 8 nominated film’s best pic much as they have over other ones far better hence nominated more. It how used to be it fundamental device that history judges academy choices and public reflect on it ..And public judge.
How Oscar be judged by these us largely clear thinking intelligent film goers DOES matter to academy question is will they properly learn lessons from the ‘ dark knight ‘ snub before it inevitable academy taken totally off air. Never say never . And everyone never underestimate measuring tool power of ratings and how success or failure reverberates in Hollywood.
So I contend Oscar need JOKER or 1917 far more than they need self proclaimed urgency to suddenly give Parasite best picture and thr y need biggest rating boost thr y not had to quell voices of despair within film industry who fear academy lost thrir way trust me if u contrast Oscar history in 90’s even to 2000’s u see huge differenve in how oscars written it not as mich anymore to it favour cos acadeny awards season structure no.longer follows basic logic now it maths so watch what happens when as broadcast be Grins ratings be bigger but as show drags on Oscar viewers and those far more knowledgeable than elements if academy itself more nominated film’s as becomes clear they win less, so to this equals academy gradually having decline in ratings as night wears on.
Fact is foreign film’s have huge way to go before they sweep best pic And best foreign film when u look at Oscar history every type of film genre or source timeframe taken from time certain genres debuted beyond their own origins it rightfully acc Oscars own rule rightly or wrongly consistently takes 2 decades it NOT been that long at all since foreign film’s gone to big time consistebtky so if Oscar so stubborn insist internstionslizing itself due to basic maths I do basic maths tell u most nominated film’s in unprecedented wonderful situation of 4/9 contenders achieving double figures Oscar trash thrir brand and I guarantee lose ratings and sew up division in Hollywood ..
Then anarchy will follow I actually think JOKER win more crirical than ever for evolution of film indystry as it proves academy domt need critics tell them what to do it be ultimate stand against vein hideous intimidating bullying tactics by social media. It will confirm more so than 1917 as important as that film is to history , that Oscar takes a stand against these present day entities focuses on purely merit height of true cinemayic achievement to which JOKER truly is…that it hated by online media along 1917 even though 1917 more likely win I think JOKER could therefore win more awards as runner up than pple may think. It stands as ONLY contender after all to be best pic nom with far and away stand out LEAD acting win.
Here the thing even I accept more often not formula – LEAD actor dominating wins leading to academy awards should be attached to best picture and that same film wins best pic ok if supp actor is strongest nom like for OUATIH, then should b coupled with either a strong screenplay which it has or min. 3 tech arts wins to win best pic. Precedent is green book last year and also for former mentioned here is most oscsr winming films pre- pref ballot.
It why I warn in the supposedly divisive year JOKER could weather the pref ballot storm otherwise why is it most nominated film? Why it keep defying critics so called experts? There is passion and admiration it borne out of i think most intensive celebrated collaboration in film focused btw one actor and director comparable to some of great Oscar winners that also had memorable colla oration very intensely btw actor and director.
And there one that really comes to mind that arguably even darker than joker, Silence of the Lambs. There is a precedent for joker winning. Thunk bout that cos I tell ya now, Oscar thinking long and hard before rushing to parasite that hasn’t won globe, BAFTA, individual SAG more prominent to best picture at Oscars thn just sag ensemble and fact some people saying on stats ? Yes sadly true film wins in top all this pga and dga is not desrrved eventual winner at Oscars too often it happened ? Even if only half time in pref ballot era? Doesn’t that tell u something is quite dysfunctional btw traditional modus operandi of academy vs way balloting has changed?
I know JOKER hasn’t won these precursors but it impact on film culture and film goers is undeniable and it most nominated film well when most nominated film starts being treated with more respect more often than not so too will ratings and film industry within Hollywood rally behind academy be less divisive I think number of u Sasha included respectfully underestimate joker at u peril after all joker capable pulling out tricks when Batman least expect it…now imagine if academy is ‘ Batman ‘ now how many times did Batman underestimate his adversary only have real conundrum t trying undo jokers plans? U get my drift ..
Actually, Best Picture was easier to predict before the preferential ballot, on average, in my opinion…
I agree didn’t I say it? I confused myself now sorry shock way my partner broke up with me left me devastated and very hard to focus what I write myself or namely remember if you pick it out to me I able to I honestly first time since bring on this site unable recall nor have patience within myself to re read what I done which I trying do more of but…much harder atm…not to say I talking nonsense I just can’t recall parts what I wrote sorry mate did I say that? Oh it not normal partner break up first time ever taking u to court that EXACTLY what happened unforgivable hope never happens to you tell me of one wants break up talk through it don’t send court document to tell me ya know? That huge betrayal were 4 yrs trust I put in them they begged me for y know? Some pple
Wow – sorry! I only checked my email – and thus got to read this – now… 🙁 That’s really messed-up, indeed. Don’t worry about what was or wasn’t said her – just take care, enjoy these last few days before the Oscars and trust me (well, I’m sure you know it too, but just in case): time heals all wounds! Really sorry to hear about this…
Interesting take by self-proclaimed Oscar Expert on Twitter
“Sorry but I’m not gonna predict a movie that has won zero major precursors to win the Oscar over a movie that won nearly all of them because my “intuition”, based on how much Twitter and Letterboxd likes the movie, tells me so”
Of course, Parasite has won SAGE, WGA and ACE so not zero major precursors, unless he’s defining that by picture and director, but SAGE counts anyway.
But if 1917 does win, I think many will say looking back, it won GG picture and director, PGA, DGA. BAFTA picture and director, wasn’t it obvious?
What will you say if Parasite or JoJo Rabbit wins Best Picture? How will you explain it?
Both are explainable, they are just both less likely in my opinion.
Why didn’t parasite win globe Director? It seemed a slam dunk, why not Critics Choice BP, seemed like a slam dunk. There’s a lot of love for that movie no doubt, but it’s lost a hell of a lot of things for people to be so sure it’s winning BP.
Come back to my main point- being the first ever foreign language winner, I’d expect a sweep. I might be wrong, I acknowledge that.
You’ve explained how 1917 wins, thought you’d profer how the other two would and so folks can say, wasnt it obvious.
I don’t think many people will say it was “obvious“ Parasite would win, when 1917 had won so much. It would be seen as an upset.
No one will say it was obvious Jojo would win, it would be a huge shock.
To answer your question, Parasites pathway is SAGE/WGA/ACE, Jojo is WGA/ACE. That’s how they could win.
Somebody will.
We can all rationalise our way out of paper bags! This is so not a science but what I read (glaze over sometimes) is the reliance on stats to determine the outcome. And explain EVERY outcome that way.
I just don’t see the process that way.
I agree, I’ve said multiple times that stats are about probability, they should not be applied rigidly.
You’d you never expect a film snubbed in acting, editing and screenplay to win best film, let alone a 7 win sweep, but 1917 just did that at BAFTA.
That the Oscars in recent years are 1. screenplay driven and 2. want to say something about humanity/goodness in their best picture selection and 3. also have some SAG support and 4. best director is now no longer tied to best picture and is seen as a technical achievement.
Their YouTube reactions are gold, very passionate guys.
However, if they read the situation as “one won all the major precursors while Parasite won zero”, that is not the correct read. I don’t think their grasp of where things stand is nearly as nuanced as some of the members here.
Parasite is about 1 BFCA removed from a Spotlight situation, and I think a stronger version of the Moonlight situation (due to SAG and ACE). The only thing is that PGA and DGA did not split this year (like a TBS/Revenant situation), and I’m not sure if 1917 is another La La Land.
They are smart and funny guys. But they are just making educated guesses like everyone else. Last year they were sure that Roma was going to win, after it won CC and BAFTA. But when it comes to the Guilds, Roma was quite weaker than Parasite is. They are not looking at all the tea leaves.
The campaigns having finished, I’m amazed the parasite and OUATIH campaign and fans didn’t focus on 1917’s main weakness: Mendes has won both BP and BD before.
Rather than the gimmick nonsense, or I didn’t feel anything, the fact that he won before should have been brought up more by them.
I agree. After all, they just gave Inarritu an Oscar the year before. Oh wait….
He lost picture. I think at least partly because he had won before.
It is nonsense the reductive slamming of 1917 as a ‘gimmick’. I was looking for it, how could I not with relentless mention of it here and elsewhere, but stopped looking or caring. Mendes plotted the movie so carefully and cleverly and I just wanted to be transported into the world he created and I was. Mendes’ film is showy but it’s all towards the story and the tribute, not a glib or self conscious film as some have called it.
Scorsese may be the best loved living Director but The Irishman wasn’t him at top form and he won an Oscar for a gangster story. If it had been better received overall, the case might have been mounted as to why give Sam Mendes again, when Marty has just one. Scorsese will have such an extraordinary legacy not just for his movies but his commitment to film restoration.
I still think Tarantino is a divisive figure in the awards landscape and movie business. Brilliant: yes; beloved: not so sure. I get that he is revered in certain circles but this season other films and film makers have struck more of a chord.
Bong has certainly been the most charming and welcomed filmmaker at various shows. I think they all just feel so lucky to be part of the mix this year. It’s high time international cinema had more of a presence come awards time. Not just at festivals and not just in their own regions. Film is an international language. Win or not, Parasite is a game changer.
You have to give credit to Roma for laying the groundwork for a foreign film to be in the BP mix.
Yes and Amour too.
And Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.
And Life is Beautiful.
Indeed.
Please no. But I miss the days when the worst thing we knew about Weinstein was that he would promote mediocre films for Oscars.
1998’s nominees, ranked and rated
1. The Thin Red Line ***** / A+
2. Life is Beautiful ***** / A+
3. Shakespeare in Love **** / B
4. Elizabeth **** / B
5. Saving Private Ryan 1/2 * / F
BEST Picture of 1998: El Milagro de P. Tinto, by Javier Fesser
Yep
I don’t think people wanted to crap on a passion project that doesn’t have anything going against it controversially.
Off-topic: ICS Awards (aka how to think outside the box and award some deserving movies instead of just pretending that your copying of Oscar winners means that you matter as an Oscar precursor):
PICTURE
01. Pain and Glory
02. Parasite
03. Portrait of a Lady on Fire
04. Synonyms
05. Long Day’s Journey Into Night
06. The Irishman
07. Vitalina Varela
08. Marriage Story
09. Just Don’t Think I’ll Scream
10. An Elephant Sitting Still
11. Little Women
12. Transit
13. Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
14. The Image Book
15. Uncut Gems
16. Mektoub, My Love: Intermezzo
17. La Llorona
18. I Was at Home, But
19. La Flor
20. High Life
21. Martin Eden
22. The Souvenir
23. Leto
24. A Hidden Life
25. Ash is Purest White
DIRECTOR
Winner: Céline Sciamma – Portrait of a Lady on Fire
RU: Pedro Almodóvar – Pain and Glory
• Bi Gan – Long Day’s Journey Into Night
• Bong Joon Ho – Parasite
• Pedro Costa – Vitalina Varela
• Nadav Lapid – Synonyms
ACTOR
Winner: Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory
RU: Tom Mercier – Synonyms
• Adam Driver – Marriage Story
• Luca Marinelli – Martin Eden
• Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
• Adam Sandler – Uncut Gems
ACTRESS
Winner: Vitalina Varela – Vitalina Varela
RU: Zhao Tao – Ash is Purest White
• Virginie Efira – Sibyl
• Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
• Noémie Merlant – Portrait of a Lady on Fire
• Lupita Nyong’o – Us
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Winner: Joe Pesci – The Irishman
RU: Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse
• Tom Burke – The Souvenir
• Asier Etxeandia – Pain and Glory
• Al Pacino – The Irishman
• Song Kang-ho – Parasite
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Winner: Adèle Haenel – Portrait of a Lady on Fire
RU: Cho Yeo-jeong – Parasite
• Laura Dern – Marriage Story
• Sandra Hüller – Sibyl
• Margarita Kenéfic – La Llorona
• Fatma Mohamed – In Fabric
ENSEMBLE
Winner: Parasite
RU: La Flor
• The Irishman
• La Llorona
• Little Women
• Pain and Glory
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Winner: Parasite – Bong Joon Ho, Han Jin Won
RU: Pain and Glory – Pedro Almodóvar
• Marriage Story – Noah Baumbach
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood – Quentin Tarantino
• Portrait of a Lady on Fire – Céline Sciamma
• Synonyms – Nadav Lapid, Haim Lapid
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Winner: Transit – Christian Petzold
RU: Little Women – Greta Gerwig
• Asako I & II – Sachiko Tanaka, Ryûsuke Hamaguchi
• An Elephant Sitting Still – Hu Bo
• The Irishman – Steven Zaillian
• Martin Eden – Maurizio Braucci, Pietro Marcello
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Winner: Vitalina Varela – Leonardo Simões
RU: Long Day’s Journey Into Night – Yao Hung-i, Dong Jingsong, David Chizallet
• 1917 – Roger Deakins
• Atlantique – Claire Mathon
• The Lighthouse – Jarin Blaschke
• Portrait of a Lady on Fire – Claire Mathon
EDITING
Winner: Just Don’t Think I’ll Scream – Thomas Marchand
RU: Parasite – Yang Jin-mo
• The Image Book – Jean-Luc Godard
• The Irishman – Thelma Schoonmaker
• Synonyms – Neta Braun, François Gédigier, Era Lapid
• Uncut Gems – Ronald Bronstein, Benny Safdie
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Winner: Parasite – Lee Ha-jun
RU: Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood – Barbara Ling
• High Life – François-Renaud Labarthe
• The Lighthouse – Craig Lathrop
• Little Joe – Katharina Wöppermann
• Pain and Glory – Antxón Gómez
SCORE
Winner: A Hidden Life – James Newton Howard
RU: Pain and Glory – Alberto Iglesias
• Ad Astra – Max Richter
• Joker – Hildur Guðnadóttir
• Marriage Story – Randy Newman
• Uncut Gems – Daniel Lopatin
SOUND DESIGN
Winner: Ad Astra – Gary Rydstrom, Tom Johnson, Mark Ulano
RU: Climax – Ken Yasumoto
• 1917 – Oliver Tarney, Rachael Tate, Mark Taylor, Stuart Wilson
• The Lighthouse – Mariusz Glabinski, Damian Volpe
• Monos – Eduardo Castillo, Lena Esquenazi, Javier Farina, Javier Umpierrez
• Uncut Gems – Warren Shaw
ANIMATED FILM
Winner: I Lost My Body – Jérémy Clapin
RU: Buñuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles – Salvador Simó Busom
• Bombay Rose – Gitanjali Rao
• Children of the Sea – Ayumu Watanabe
• No. 7 Cherry Lane – Yonfan
• Toy Story 4 – Josh Cooley
DOCUMENTARY
Winner: Just Don’t Think I’ll Scream – Frank Beauvais
RU: Honeyland – Ljubo Stefanov, Tamara Kotevska
• Apollo 11 – Todd Douglas Miller
• For Sama – Waad Al-Kateab, Edward Watts
• M – Yolande Zauberman
• Varda by Agnès – Agnès Varda
DEBUT FEATURE
Winner: Just Don’t Think I’ll Scream – Frank Beauvais
RU: An Elephant Sitting Still – Hu Bo
• Atlantique – Mati Diop
• The Chambermaid – Lila Avilés
• End of the Century – Lucio Castro
• The Last Black Man in San Francisco – Joe Talbot
We might disagree on some things but I’m with you 100% on- Portrait of a Lady on Fire.
A masterpiece, criminally overlooked this awards season.
Outstanding list and winners.
Definitely not a lemming’s list. Love that 1917, JoJo, Joker and Ford v. Ferrari are correctly not on the top 25 list.
LOL La Llorona before High Life, Ash Is Purest White, The Souvenir etc etc.? Whatever.
Is it not any good? I’ve seen the other Bustamante from the year (Tremors) and was very unimpressed so I was hoping this one would be better
Oooh I’ve been waiting for these. Thanks for sharing.
Some great picks, as usual, although there are some surprises as well. Most notably Once Upon a Time in Hollywood doing so well.
James Newton Howard just had to win the Score category, it’s so incredibly beautiful. Reason alone for everyone to watch A Hidden Life.
And great to see some well-deserved recognition for my favourite film of the year, An Elephant Sitting Still.
An Elephant Sitting Still is a great film indeed and a worthy #1 choice! Number 8 this past year for me only behind Never Look Away, 1917, A Hidden Life, Little Women, Waves, Portrait of a Lady on Fire and Uncut Gems.
Our lists overlap a lot! A Hidden Life, Little Women, Portrait of a Lady on Fire and Uncut Gems are all in my top 10 too.
Wow. I didn’t know these awards, but..
M by Yolande Zauberman on a list? The Image book on editing? Efira on actress? La Flor in ensemble? Wow.
Burn the Oscars.
The best film of 2019 is Parasite. AMPAS can never take that away.
Watch.
How come you’re ruling out Parasite for Best Picture Chase? I think it’s 1917, but Parasite is beloved.
The old guard, which is 72% white males over 60, will deem it excessive to award a film twice. I will say it has a slightly better chance than Roma did, which never had a chance at all outside the critical fart bubble they love to get caught up in, and tell you things like Hollywood is going to win the Oscars for 3 months.
I’m glad Roma didn’t win. I really thought it was going to, but I was glad I was wrong. I admire Roma’s artistic achievement, but it wasn’t my favorite that year.
Parasite is FAR superior movie to Roma in my opinion. But what confuses me with that logic is that International Film goes to the country and the Director accepts it on the country’s behalf, but Best Picture is awarded to the producers of the movie. So it really isn’t awarding the film twice.
Most voters don’t know that, they only see that they’re going to vote the same film twice
Ah, I see. Well, there you go, I’m settling on 1917 for Best Picture.
Percentage-wise it’s the smart thing to do. You just hope for an upset
The only upset I’d be thrilled about is The Irishman taking Adapted Screenplay. But there’s zero chance of that happening. It’s Jojo Rabbit’s award to lose, and that will probably be the win for the movie.
[Edit] Oh, and Tarantino winning Picture and Director, but I’m in reality, and I accept Brad Pitt will likely be the sole win for OUATIH. Maybe Production Design and Jeff Sneider of Collider made a great case for it winning Costume Design too.
That’s where I get stuck, because if they are your top 2, and Parasite is guaranteed international film, why wouldn’t you give them one each?
And are grandfathers going to vote for director telling his grandfathers war story or a Korean domestic thriller?
Ding, ding, ding!
Also, a little off topic, but what’s the word on Original Song with your industry friends? Does Elton John have it in the bag?
😡 look out for a big surprise
Cynthia Erivo I’m guessing? My friend Tariq Khan thinks that’s going to happen.
Roma did win CC picture, GG director, BAFTA film and director, and DGA, that’s a lot of big wins Parasite doesn’t have.
Content wise, it seems likely the older demographic would prefer a war film over a thriller.
Exactly. Although there is another option…
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d064adab741779887837f937e3970667d6863600d97baedaf337e7b3bd540bc9.gif
Would jojo play better to the older demographic than parasite you think? It might
I don’t think people over 60 is that old and conservative, White or not. If you said this 10-20 years ago, yes. But a 60 y.o. white person in Hollywood today are the people who grew up in late 60’s and 70’s, which was the most liberal era of this country.
And if they were so conservative, then how did they allow a movie like Moonlight to win?
No.
I think 1917, Jojo, Pain and Glory and The Irishman are better
Why is Parasite the year’s BP? I consider six other International films “better” this past year – “Never Look Away,” (Germany) “Portrait of a Lady on Fire,” (France) “An Elephant Sitting Still,” (China) “Synonyms (France/Isreal) “Transit” (Germany) and “The Wild Pear Tree” (Turkey). Still I do like Parasite well enough.
Gold derby update
Experts
1917- 16
Parasite- 8
OUATIH- 3
Joker- 1
Editors
1917- 6
Parasite- 4
OUATIH- 1
Top 24
1917- 12
Parasite- 8
OUATIH- 4
All star top 24
1917- 14
Parasite- 7
OUATIH- 3
Will they be wrong again?
LOL OUATIH so high. It’s winning SupActor and that’s it.
I wouldn’t say it’s high, but it’s more than you’d expect, and no jojo. If not the top 2, I’d go jojo
they still underestimate Jojo even though it leapfrogged over OUATIH. Oh well.
Production Design is still a very real possibility.
Agreed. I’m still choosing it. It’s the best part of the film.
If 1917 wins this, it is sweeping.
The were wrong 4 times in a row, correct?
Yes they were
Could probably do another Tally on Oscar day, some of the remaining ONCE votes will probably switch. Definitely won’t flip the 1917/Parasite position though.
If Parasite does end up winning this.
We’d be at
– 6 years in a row where BAFTA and Oscar BP mismatch
– 5 years in a row where the “perceived” frontrunner going into the academy awards does not walk away with BP.
– 5 years in a row Goldderby experts have gotten it wrong.
Crazy to think about, it’s going to go back to normal eventually, but regardless of whether this year continues the trend or not. We’ve had a good run in terms of fascinating BP races.
No they will NOT be wrong.
Parasite emerged at the 18th Annual Gold Derby Film Awards as the big winner, with 6 of its 11 nominations including Picture, Director, Original Screenplay. Joaquin Phoenix, Brad Pitt, Laura Dern all won in their categories. But Actress went to Lupita Nyong’o. The awards are voted by 2,400 Gold Derby members.
that is why I always liked Oscarwatch/Awards Daily way better than Gold Derby. Here, we formed the International Cinephile Society and most of the winners had nothing to do with Oscars. GD seems to try to select the same that Oscars would do… boring. Oscars, are normally unfair. I am almost surprised they selected a non-nominated performance.
Roma won last year.
Last time it matched Oscar: 12 years a slave 2013.
Same for BAFTA.
Yep, so one stat or the other will change lol,
That’s the thing about stats, they give you a probability but they are not 100%.
Unless a movie other than 1917/Parasite wins, one of them will break a non-matching streak this year.
Good piece, Sasha.
Yes at the end of the day, a great film will win BP. I can’t remember a year when I liked the top 2 more.
I feel the same way. It’s because the industry has allowed a foreign-language film into the proverbial club. And it’s a fun question. For me, the last time the industry top 2 matched my top 2 was probably 1950, All About Eve vs. Sunset Blvd!
What a wild ride this season has been, the wildest I can remember.
I thought it was all OUATIH going in. I really disliked it so I wasn’t that interested.
Now it’s turned on it’s head and my two favourites are up for the win.
How did that happen?
There is nothing wild about it. It’s been one of the most boring and predictable seasons of all time.
For BP? I can’t remember one. Has a frontrunner ever ended up 3rd or 4th?
Been thinking about the “actors love Parasite” narrative. A few thoughts. SAG is no longer SAG, it’s SAG-AFTRA. Song was in the supporting actor conversation and could have shown up here, and at AMPAS if the film was particularly strong with actors. Winning SAGE is undoubtedly important for its BP chances, I’m not trying to say it isn’t.
There’s also the voting period between nominations and final round closing for members to consider what is front of them. Did Argo win because Affleck did not get nominated? Perception of the frontrunners has shifted since noms announced. The award shows that have occurred since will all add to how they vote now in that final round. They can compensate for what isn’t there or simply tick off what they like . We’ll see….
Yeah it’s hard to know how PGA or SAGE wins affect voting, BAFTA is probably too late. The frontrunner usually gets backlash but the shortened season has made that less likely.
Sasha liked most of your summation except I do think 1917 is a gimmick liked it even less the second time except for the song which I love . Parasite fell apart for me with the Monty Python meets Sam Peckinpah Salad Days ripoff at the end . I loved the darkness of Joker and the sweetness and love from JoJo Rabbit . The Irishman for me aside from Joe Pesci was an abomination and hopefully wins nothing .As for Hollywood it’s my favorite film of the year and Tarantino’s most human and compassionate film .
Things to look for in the ceremony, depending on the order of awards.
If Parasite wins editing its looking good for BP, if it loses Screenplay it’s in trouble. If 1917 is winning techs it’s not expected to like VFX or prod design or score it’s looking strong. If it’s just winning as expected, it’s still a close race.
All good ‘sound’ advice. And the sound categories too 🙂
In the good old days of the epics and costume dramas it would be which film wins costume design may have pointed to which film for Best Picture. Oh they were the days…..
Yes both sounds would point to a sweep too.
Personal resume of BP winners in this decade.
The masterpieces:
-Birdman
-Moonlight
A great movie:
-12 years a slave
Would not be my choice, but deserved:
-The Hurt Locker
-The Artist
-Argo
-The Shape of Water
With those other movies nominated? Really?? a.k.a. I’ve had it with you! I’ve had it! Officially!:
-The King’s Speech
-Spotlight
-Green Book
Masterpiece:
12 Years a Slave
Great:
The Artist
Not my choice, but deserved:
The Hurt Locker
Spotlight
Moonlight
Mediocre:
The King’s Speech
Argo
The Shape of Water
Green Book
Very similar to my choices, I’d move moonlight down to a great movie, and the artist down to the bottom, never got that love for that film, so overrated.
I’d love Spotlight up into deserved too.
Spotlight is perfect, though. Masterclass. Although that year Mad Max is one for the ages.
Masterpiece:
– Moonlight
– The Artist
Great movie:
– 12 years a slave
– The King´s Speech
An okay choice:
– Spotlight
Undeserving, depressing choice:
– Birdman
– The Shape of Water
– The Hurt Locker
– Green Book
– Argo
Deserved its win (masterpiece):
1) Moonlight
Films I would also have nominated or at least almost nominated (masterpiece originally, weirdly floated away from that status over the years):
2) The Hurt Locker
3) 12 Years a Slave
Films that I really like:
4) Spotlight (as skillful and precise procedural filmmaking, not showy but always pretty effective)
5) Birdman or (the Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) (a frustratingly interesting film that Oscar voters thought was kind to them when it’s just really nihilistic)
Not notable but pleasant to watch:
6) The King’s Speech
7) The Artist
8) Argo
Not for me:
9) The Shape of Water (to me it’s just like Del Toro had been watching Crimson Peak and going: “let’s do it again visually but without any of the joy but without actually developing the screenplay so that it would be a profound film either”)
10) Green Book (lazy, annoying, hitting the easiest target whenever it’s available, completely lacking in any of the things that make cinema usually worth watching)
You didn’t like Shape either? Cool! I had forgotten that, if I ever knew it…
Fuck it! Just give Best Picture to Hustlers and let’s all go to The Hollywood Men Strip Club on Cahuenga for the after party. Best. Oscars. EVER. See you there Travolta *WINK*
#exhausted #overit #thirsty
And also Octavia Spencer for Ma wold be gorgeous
Spanish Master José Luis Cuerda, has died at age 72. A couple of his films were official submissions to the Oscars, but the closest he was probably to a personal Oscar nomination was as Producer for The Others. Apart from having a legendary career in Spain with classics as “El Bosque Animado”, “Amanece, que no es poco”, “Así en el Cielo como en la Tierra”, “La Lengua de las Mariposas” or “Los Girasoles Ciegos”, he was teacher at the main film school in Spain and discovered among his students, Alejandro Amenábar, for whom he produced several films, starting with the first one, “Tesis”.
His last film has, in my opinion, the BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY OF 2019, “Tiempo Después”, a spiritual sequel of “Amanece que no es poco”, a surreal post-apocalyptic political satire that is superb in allegories and sharp as a razor, creative in ways that are almost unbelievable. A true testament of a master of filmmaking and screenwriting… sad, sad day.
Very sad. Tiempo después is for the ages, masterful.
Nice piece Sasha. It’s important to take that deep breath and take stock of what is in front of us, and despite this circus being about prizes for movies, it is a bigger picture. Appreciating the art in the movies of the season. Enjoying the respective charms and treasures in not only the heavy hitters but the ones ignored and should have been and coulda been included.
This is just a springboard. Motivation, fuel and passion to keep digging and accessing quality cinema. Your advocacy of this is why I respect this site and its authors. Pitting such different narratives and styles against one another is exactly what this palava is all about and that ‘noise ‘ you describe with Twitter and Facebook etc, only makes me want to focus MORE on the individual films and keep hunting for the gems. Accepting the ‘unfairness’ of this bizarre way of appreciating art, enjoying the frenzy and hoopla of Oscar week and the day itself, then putting away last year, and re-starting and doing it all again……
A huge paradox here. Most of us truly appreciate great films yet we obsess about Oscars, a political popularity contest that rarely gets it right.
This year though, they have.
The year is young for me, but three of their BP titles ended up in my Top 10 last year, and the ones I’ve loved the best this season is Parasite, Jojo and 1917 in no particular order. I’ll see Ford v Ferrari and Little Women later.
I expect my three favourites of this lineup to be among my Top 10 of this year too.
I loved Green Book (I know you didn’t as many others here felt the same) and I didn’t have a problem with it winning. It was my 6th favourite of last year. Roma didn’t overly thrill me, was underwhelmed by Blackkklansman and thought The Favourite (my #7) was too dark and bitter to win.
Once Upon A Time in Hollywood didn’t impress me as much as I wanted. The Irishman was a huge disappointment to me. Joker was strong but not amazing for me.
Id be happy if any of Jojo or Parasite or 1917 wins. But most years only three to four at most of Academy’s lineup of BP ends up on my list. I don’t look to them for my bliss. But a few each year is pretty good.
This year the top 2 are #2 and #6 on my list, which is the highest ever I think.
I choose to wait until the end of the year to rank all of the films I saw during a given calendar year, not the one they were made in or released in the dying days of that year.
It helps me have time to let some of the Jan Feb ones percolate and revisit during the year. Although I did see Marriage Story and Irishman late last year I saw Jojo 1917 and Parasite this year so it is trickier to do an end of year list when some of the prestige titles are not released theatrically until January or Feb.
Yes I mean this year in terms of the Oscar ceremony, my rankings are last years films.
I just love statistics and movies. That’s why I love box office and found really interesting to follow the Oscar race. It’s always good when your favorite movies won, but if they don’t, it’s fine. Parasite is my favors movie of 2019 but I don’t give a shit if it loses. It’ll be honest be in better company.
First off, Kubrick would never have made anything remotely close to Parasite. The only thing his universe might have in common with Parasite is the humour but he was never interested in class divide, nor would he have made anything as shallow as that ending. Kubrick was interested in magic and fears and dreams. If anything, the only Bong-ho film that would be closer to Kubrick is The Host, and even that is a bit of a stretch.
Second off, all villains are made. None are born. Joker doesn’t say anything Taxi Driver hasn’t already said, or a gazillion other movies on this subject, for all that matter.
On a funny note we have such different tastes when it comes to movies. Citizen Kane? Really? This and The Godfather the most set pieces movies in history. I can’t take them seriously. Nothing is organic.
“Shallow” ending. Right. Where do people get this stuff? Jesus.
What do you mean where from? From the movie. You let me know what that ending was supposed to mean
Ridiculous. It is anything but shallow.
If Kubrick was never interested in the class divide, why did he make Barry Lyndon?
Because he took some used camera MGM threw in the bin and thought they were idiots not to use those with natural light. How is Barry Lyndon about class divide? That’s about a man who is lost in crappy period of time and somehow instinctively knows there’s more to it, yet he doesn’t have the strength to change anything about his life. It’s a typical chekhov-doostoyevski set up. Barry Lyndon is a trap. Looks like a small movie but it’s larger than life-a theme that runs throughout all his movies. It’s like comparing Crime and punishment with Parasite. Yes, they both look like chamber pieces, but one is about the human being, the other is about class and groups.
Or The Clockwork Orange?
“…The kind of tight, perfectly rendered film that could easily on the shelf next to Hitchcock and Kubrick” v. “First off, Kubrick would never have made anything remotely close to Parasite.”
Is it me or did something get lost in translation?
“he was never interested in class divide…Kubrick was interested in magic and fears and dreams.”
Too bad Kubrick is no longer with us – I’m sure he’d love to read your definitive inventory of his interests.
“Second off, all villains are made. None are born.”
A scholar of not only Kubrick but neuroscience, genetics and fiction…impressive.
The ending wasn’t shallow. It was putting a mirror in front of the audience. We all organize our entire lives around the dream that we’re going to study hard, work hard, then get rich, buy this luxurious house and rid our loved ones of all their problems, even though it’s just a dream and we all know it’s never going to happen. We are just going to end up, right where we started, in the cellar with a window providing just a glimpse of what could have been, false hope.
And is a film like this worth being made, I ask?