While Roma’s win for best Director last year was a step towards breaking the pattern, Parasite blew the English language precedent out of the water tonight when it surprised and took Best Director and Best Picture, becoming not just the first Korean film to earn a nomination in the International Feature category, Best Picture, Director and Screenplay – but now it has WON all of those.
Many were predicting it would win. But many of us thought that they would not give one film two Best Picture prizes. Turns out, that wasn’t a problem.
The Oscars ceremony itself was a night devoted to the topic of inclusion and exclusion. Wouldn’t it have been funny if after all that they handed their awards to a film made by white men? Probably wasn’t going to happen.
Sam Mendes and 1917 had won the Globe for Picture and Director, the Producers Guild, the Directors Guild and the BAFTA. But it was hurt by being a late-breaking film, and by having no acting nominations. It would have had to win either Screenplay or Director to win Best Picture but Parasite took both of those awards, along with International Feature.
So Parasite won:
Picture
Director
Screenplay
International Feature
The difference between the Academy and the other voting bodies are the actors, who dominate. They were seen giving Parasite an excited standing ovation at the SAG, and that probably went a long way towards pushing Parasite to the top where actors dominate. On its own, a SAG ensemble stat isn’t a strong push towards Best Picture, but the standing ovation on television was probably the bigger influencer.
What happened with Parasite was more than a fluke of the preferential ballot. Had it won just Best Picture you could chalk it up to that. But even though they didn’t give the film Editing or Production Design (it’s almost shocking that they didn’t, come to think of it) this was as close to a sweep as you’re going to see in the era of the expanded ballot. That it won Picture and Director showed passion. It probably won on the first round even.
I figure a lot of people out there are very happy tonight. I know for the Academy they won’t have to face any blowback for refusing Bong’s film the top prize and they will likely be praised for this choice. It has always been true, as Justin Chang said in the LA Times, that the Academy needed Parasite more than Parasite needed the Academy.
As far as the film industry, well, I don’t know where they go from here. To see a year of such great films coming out of the major studios and none of them could win Best Picture – I’m not sure what message that sends, or where it leaves them, or where it leads.
I have to admit that I didn’t see it coming. If I had I would have been more conflicted about what would win Best Picture. I saw the bigger picture much differently. I was looking at how the major Hollywood studios had made so many great films this year. I just couldn’t imagine the Academy would say, yeah but you didn’t make one better than this one here. But they did.
On the upside, a really great movie won Best Picture and Best Director, one that was daring and dark and brilliant. It is, without a doubt, among the best films that have ever won the top prize at the Oscars. The Academy has, in one night, completely changed what defines it, and in so doing, shut up its critics and forever altered its legacy. It is now officially a global institution, not a local one.
I think where AMPAS now needs to look is inward, because while Parasite broke through a major wall in winning the awards that it did, it is still considered an “International” (read: still “foreign”), and so isn’t viewed within the discourse of racialized diversity in the same way a film such as Queen & Slim is. Though to a certain degree the ceiling for black films with majority black casts directed by black directors has been breached by 12 Years a Slave (though British) and Moonlight (a bonafide African American), a Black man–let alone a Black woman, who has never even been nominated– has yet to win Best Director, despite several being nominated in the past 15 years (e.g., Spike Lee, Steve McQueen, Barry Jenkins, Lee Daniels). And then, of course, there are the acting categories, which have seen numerous Black men and women receive nods for both lead and supporting, but mostly winning the latter, with only the men winning the former. Halle Berry still remains the only actress of any racialized background who has won a lead actress Oscar in the 92-year history of the event–and that was almost 20 years ago. If we think of other racialized groups:
– an Asian woman has not been nominated for lead actress since the days of Merle Oberon (who hid her Indian heritage) in the 1930s, and an East/Southeast Asian woman has never even been nominated in that category (nor, as far as I can recall, has even been nominated in Supporting since Miyoshi Umeki for Sayonara in 1958, except for Rinko Kikuchi–though, again, viewed as an “International” actress–while Iranian-American actress Shohreh Aghdashloo was nominated in the early naughty for House of Sand and Fog), and the only actor of any Asian background to be nominated as lead is still Ben Kingsley, who has two nods and one win to his name, the last time also for The House of Sand and Fog). Also, no films with predominantly Asian American casts directed by an Asian American director has ever been nominated for Best Picture–any films featuring mostly Asians have starred non-American Asian actors directed by Europeans (The Last Emperor and Slumdog Millionaire, both of which won) or were International Asian films directed by non-American Asian directors (Crouching Tiger, The Life of Pi, Parasite). The only Asian-American director to be nominated is still M. Night Shyamalan, and that was almost 25 years ago (Ang Lee bases himself out of Taiwan, though does direct a lot of Hollywood films);
– Native Americans have never been nominated in the lead categories (probably because they never get cast as leads), and no Native American woman has ever been nominated for Supporting, as well–only a handful of men have been nominated in Supporting, and they’ve been primarily from the Canadian side of the border (Graham Greene, Chief Dan George), with the only Indigenous acting nominees being Keisha Castle Hughes and Yalitza Aparicio, neither of whom hails from the US or stars in an American film. No film led by and featuring a majority Native American cast has ever been nominated for Best Picture, and no director who identifies as Native American has ever been nominated in that category, either;
– Latinx directors from the US have never been nominated, as the Three Amigos are firmly categorized as International directors based in Mexico, and Latinx acting talent has barely received any recognition (Salma Hayek is up for debate), with Rita Moreno the only one finding awards success. Certainly no films focusing on Latin concerns in the US have made the cut;
– Arab Americans finally saw Rami Malek succeed on their behalf last year in the acting races, but aside from him, no one has ever penetrated the shortlist (again, Salma Hayek is iffy on the American side of things), nor has any director or film.
Gender and Gender Identity are a whole other ballgame that require their own separate discussion.
Ultimately, my point is that the US film industry as well as AMPAS still has to reckon with the racism of exclusion that it perpetuates internally against its fellow Americans. Until Hollywood can show support for the diversity of actors brought up in its own system and for films highlighting American issues, concerns, stories, and histories, #Oscarssowhite will likely continue to live on.
Updates to the all-industry Best Picture-predicting system
These were prompted by two things, mainly – my increasing mistrust of acting/SAG nomination stats (due to AFTRA, on the one hand, and the notion that, with 20 slots available, it simply does not happen enough that a serious contender for Best Picture is actually snubbed for acting – last two years notwithstanding -, so that these stats have simply not been properly tested often enough for one to be sure about their strength, which, in any case, the numbers alone reveal to be quite a bit shakier than that of most of the other major industry stats), in particular in terms of their being included in elimination rules, and the discovery I made this January that Braveheart was, in fact (pretty much beyond doubt, as far as I’m concerned), snubbed by the PGA (both Wikipedia and IMDb appear to be wrong in claiming that only the winner was announced – I’ve found multiple sources confirming that there were, in fact, 7 PGA nominees that year, and Braveheart was not one of them). Relevant links:
https://nighthawknews.wordpress.com/2011/11/27/the-history-of-the-academy-awards-best-picture-1995/
http://oscarsijmen.freehostia.com/PGA90.htm
https://www.awardsdaily.com/wiki/wiki/main-wiki/wiki/producers-guild-pga/
http://tr.wikipedia-on-ipfs.org/wiki/En_%C4%B0yi_Tiyatral_Film_Producers_Guild_of_America_%C3%96d%C3%BCl%C3%BC.html
I also wanted to strengthen my nominations ranking elimination rules, which took a hit the Green Book year, and just in general to no longer have any elimination rules with more than one exception. Therefore, I decided to do that, as well as to no longer use the SAG Ensemble snub as part of any elimination rules (I already didn’t really use acting snubs that way), not the two snub rule and not the WGA+1 rule. And, finally, out of necessity (due to the tightening of the nominations ranking elimination rules), I had to add one last elimination rule: the need to win the PGA, DGA or WGA. All of this also required a change in how I stack up contenders against one another… Again, none of these things had any influence on picking Parasite this year or not – it would have been the system’s pick regardless. Long story short, here is the final version of the system as of right now, after the updates:
1. Elimination rules:
– the two snub rule (PGA/DGA/WGA/ACE and Oscar directing/screenplay/editing nominations only: no Best Picture winner has ever been snubbed for more than one of these in different categories – so, not DGA and Oscar directing, for example -, with at least 5 nomination slots per category, except for Hamlet in 1949, for editing and screenplay at the Oscars, although that one I find to be suspect due to the only writing credit, according to IMDb, being one William Shakespeare, who I suspect could/would not be nominated for an Oscar; Hamlet was also snubbed by the DGA, but there were only 4 slots that year and one of them was even taken by a movie that competed in another year at the Oscars, so of course this cannot be taken very seriously, especially since Hamlet did receive a directing nomination at the Oscars);
– the WGA+1 rule (same guild and Oscar categories involved, except for the screenplay ones – no Best Picture winner has ever been snubbed for one of the remaining five and also lost the WGA while eligible, except for Green Book in 2019, which is another questionable exception, since that was literally the only time in the WGA’s entire history that no Best Picture-nominated movie won any of their categories, which makes one question whether any of the Best Picture nominees should be held accountable for losing the WGA that year at all… regardless, both this and the two snub rule remain over 98%, even with the exceptions counted);
– a mandatory win at either PGA, DGA or WGA (every Best Picture winner in the PGA era has managed at least one, and the last movie that didn’t was Out of Africa in 1986, which had no PGA Award it could win – nor did any of the ones before it, some of which also had no shot at winning the WGA, being ineligible);
– having, at most, 6 nominations fewer than the Oscar nominations leader, as well as no more than 6 movies with more Oscar nominations that year (both of these rules are on 100% all-time).
Acting and ensemble nominations are also on 100% when combined with a lot of the other nomination stats used above, but not with others and, in general, seem to lead to exceptions annoyingly cropping up out of the blue, and a higher number of exceptions in general. Hence, their exclusion.
2. Weakness count:
– for the surviving movies after the eliminations phase (or, if all Best Picture nominees are eliminated, for all of them), head-to-head comparisons will be performed to see which of them has performed better than all others in terms of key industry wins and nominations;
– comparisons will simply consist of determining which of the two movies performed better overall in one of the following six categories: PGA, DGA/Oscar directing, WGA/Oscar screenplay, ACE/Oscar editing, SAG ensemble/acting/Oscar acting;
– ACE only counts in terms of nominations; the ACE win is irrelevant (the correlation is just not there – Best Picture winners sometimes win an ACE Award, but they very often don’t and that win is just as often harmful to predictions as it is helpful);
– evidently, a WGA ineligibility is not counted as a weakness;
– the acting branch performance is calculated by adding a point for any win at SAG (regardless of how many) and subtracting a point for any snub, whether in ensemble or acting at either SAG or the Oscars (but not both – a double snub in equivalent categories, meaning WGA+screenplay or DGA+directing or ACE+editing or SAG+Oscar acting, is always counted as a single weakness);
– the movie that performs better than all others in these head-to-head matchups is picked as the system’s favorite – if there is a tie…
I shall of course consider whether the WGA ineligibility should nevertheless be counted as a half-weakness or not, were the need to make that decision to arise at some point (for the 31 years of the PGA era investigated so far, using this method, it does not).
3. Tiebreakers:
– more SAG wins in any category (ensemble plus any of the four acting categories, counted equally);
– more SAG nominations in any category;
– more snubs (in the categories for which snub deductions are made).
Further tiebreakers will be added (after studying the options) should a situation ever come up in which these three prove insufficient. So far, none have.
Some of the more interesting examples – to perhaps clarify a bit how these steps work in various situations:
2020: All but Parasite and Jojo Rabbit are eliminated (1917, due to its editing snub coupled with its WGA defeat, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood and The Irishman due to failing to win PGA/DGA/WGA) and their matchup goes as follows:
– PGA is tied (both nominated and lost);
– DGA/directing goes to Parasite (due to Jojo Rabbit’s Oscar snub – both losing nominees at DGA);
– WGA is tied (both won);
– ACE is tied (both won);
– SAG/acting is tied (Parasite is snubbed for acting but wins ensemble, while Jojo Rabbit is nominated for both but wins neither – the Oscar acting snub for Parasite is a duplicate and is therefore not counted again);
– no further major Oscar snubs;
– Parasite wins by 1-0. (Note that, had I decided on an interpretation that awarded SAG/acting to Jojo Rabbit due to the extra Oscar acting snubs for Parasite, the latter still would have won the tiebreak round due to its SAG ensemble win vs. 0 SAG wins for Jojo.)
2019: All are eliminated (Green Book, due to its directing snub coupled with its WGA defeat, Roma, similarly, due to its editing snub coupled with its WGA defeat, BlacKkKlansman, Vice and The Favourite, due to failing to win PGA/DGA/WGA – and the others via the two snub rule). It’s fairly obvious why and how Green Book comfortably beats Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite and A Star is Born, given their many snubs and almost total lack of major guild wins (Malek’s win being the only one between the four of them), so I’m only going to give details for its remaining three matchups – it beats Vice as follows:
– PGA goes to Green Book (win vs. nomination);
– DGA/directing goes to Vice (due to Green Book’s Oscar snub – both were nominated for and lost the DGA);
– WGA is tied (both nominated and lost);
– ACE is tied (both nominated and lost);
– SAG goes to Green Book (both snubbed for ensemble, but Green Book won an acting award and Vice didn’t);
– no further major Oscar snubs;
– Green Book wins by 2-1.
And it beats BlacKkKlansman as follows:
– PGA goes to Green Book (win vs. nomination);
– DGA/directing goes to BlacKkKlansman (due to Green Book’s Oscar snub – both were nominated for and lost the DGA);
– WGA is tied (both nominated and lost);
– ACE is tied (both nominated and lost);
– SAG is tied (Green Book is snubbed for ensemble but wins an acting award, whereas BlacKkKlansman doesn’t, nor does it convert its ensemble nomination into a win);
– no further major Oscar snubs;
– since the score is 1-1, the first tiebreaker decides things in favor of Green Book (due to its extra SAG actin win).
And it beats Roma as follows:
– PGA goes to Green Book (win vs. nomination);
– DGA/directing goes to Roma (DGA win and Oscar nomination vs. DGA loss and Oscar snub);
– WGA is tied (both nominated and lost);
– ACE/editing goes to Green Book (both nominated and lost at ACE, but Roma was snubbed at the Oscars when Green Book wasn’t);
– SAG goes to Green Book (Roma is snubbed completely whereas Green Book wins an acting award);
– no further major Oscar snubs;
– Green Book wins by 3-1.
2018: All but The Shape of Water are eliminated (Three Billboards, due to failing to win PGA/DGA/WGA and Get Out due to being 9 nominations off the leader, The Shape of Water, 4 vs. 13). Count is not needed.
2017: All but Moonlight, La La Land and Arrival are eliminated. Moonlight beats Arrival as follows:
– PGA is tied (both nominated and lost);
– DGA is tied (both nominated and lost);
– WGA is tied (both won);
– ACE is tied (both nominated – Arrival won but, again, this is irrelevant);
– SAG/acting goes to Moonlight (ensemble nomination vs. snub, acting win vs. nomination and Oscar acting nomination vs. snub);
– no further major Oscar snubs;
– Moonlight wins by 1-0.
And it beats La La Land as follows:
– PGA goes to La La Land (win vs. nomination);
– DGA goes to La La Land (win vs. nomination);
– WGA goes to Moonlight (win vs. nomination);
– ACE is tied (both nominated – La La Land wins, but this is irrelevant to the system);
– SAG goes to Moonlight (both win an acting award but La La Land is snubbed for ensemble);
– no major Oscar snubs;
– since the score is 2-2 and the first tiebreaker does not decide (each won one SAG award), Moonlight’s extra ensemble nomination at SAG breaks the tie.
2016: All but Spotlight and The Revenant are eliminated (The Big Short, due to being 7 nominations off the leader, The Revenant, 5 vs. 12) and their matchup goes as follows:
– PGA is tied (both nominated, neither won);
– DGA goes to The Revenant (win vs. nomination);
– WGA/screenplay goes to Spotlight (WGA win and Oscar nomination vs. two snubs);
– ACE goes to The Revenant (nomination vs. snub);
– SAG goes to Spotlight (ensemble win and acting nomination vs. acting win but no ensemble nomination);
– no further major Oscar snubs;
– since the score is 2-2 and the first tiebreaker does not decide (each won one SAG award), Spotlight’s extra ensemble nomination at SAG breaks the tie.
2007: All but The Departed are eliminated (Little Miss Sunshine, by the two snub rule – Oscar directing and editing snubs). Count is not needed.
2006: All but Crash and Brokeback Mountain are eliminated and their matchup goes as follows:
– PGA goes to Brokeback Mountain (win vs. nomination);
– DGA goes to Brokeback Mountain (win vs. nomination);
– WGA is tied (both won);
– ACE/editing goes to Crash (Oscar snub for Brokeback Mountain);
– SAG goes to Crash (ensemble win vs. nomination, both nominated for acting but with no wins);
– no further major Oscar snubs;
– since the score is 2-2, the first tiebreaker decides things in favor of Crash (SAG ensemble win vs. no SAG wins for Brokeback Mountain).
2005: All but Million Dollar Baby, The Aviator and Sideways are eliminated. Million Dollar Baby beats Sideways as follows:
– PGA is tied (both nominated, neither won);
– DGA goes to Million Dollar Baby (win vs. nomination);
– WGA goes to Sideways (win vs. nomination);
– ACE/editing goes to Million Dollar Baby (Oscar snub for Sideways);
– SAG is tied (both nominated for ensemble as well as acting, Sideways won ensemble, Million Dollar Baby won acting awards);
– no further major Oscar snubs;
– Million Dollar Baby wins by 2-1.
And it beats The Aviator as follows:
– PGA goes to The Aviator (win vs. nomination);
– DGA goes to Million Dollar Baby (win vs. nomination);
– WGA is tied (both nominated, neither won);
– ACE is tied (both nominated – The Aviator won, but this is irrelevant);
– SAG is tied (both nominated for ensemble, both won acting awards);
– no major Oscar snubs;
– since the score is 1-1, the first tiebreaker decides things in favor of Million Dollar Baby (two SAG acting wins vs. just one for The Aviator).
2001: All but Gladiator and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon are eliminated (Traffic, due to being 7 nominations off the leader, Gladiator, 5 vs. 12) and their matchup goes as follows:
– PGA goes to Gladiator (win vs. nomination);
– DGA goes to Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (win vs. nomination);
– WGA goes to Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (nomination vs. snub);
– SAG goes to Gladiator (ensemble and acting nominations vs. snubs for both);
– no major Oscar snubs;
– since the score is 2-2 and the first tiebreaker does not decide (neither won any SAG awards), Gladiator’s extra ensemble and acting nominations at SAG break the tie.
1999: All but Shakespeare in Love and Saving Private Ryan are eliminated and their matchup goes as follows:
– PGA goes to Saving Private Ryan (win vs. nomination);
– DGA goes to Saving Private Ryan (win vs. nomination);
– WGA goes to Shakespeare in Love (win vs. nomination);
– ACE is tied (both nominated – Saving Private Ryan won, but this is irrelevant);
– SAG goes to Shakespeare in Love (wins for both ensemble and acting vs. only nominations);
– no major Oscar snubs;
– since the score is 2-2, the first tiebreaker decides things in favor of Shakespeare in Love (multiple SAG wins vs. none for Saving Private Ryan).
1998: All but Titanic and L.A. Confidential are eliminated (As Good As It Gets, due to being 7 nominations off the leader, Titanic, 7 vs. 14) and their matchup goes as follows:
– PGA goes to Titanic (win vs. nomination);
– DGA goes to Titanic (win vs. nomination);
– WGA/screenplay goes to L.A. Confidential (WGA win and Oscar nomination vs. WGA nomination and Oscar snub);
– ACE is tied (both nominated);
– SAG is tied (both nominated for and lost ensemble, both won an acting award – they tied each other, in fact, in that category);
– no further major Oscar snubs;
– Titanic wins by 2-1.
1996: All but Braveheart (PGA-snubbed, with acting and ensemble snubs at SAG and the Oscars, but WGA winner, and no two snub rules apply) are eliminated (Apollo 13 due to the directing snub coupled with the WGA defeat, Sense and Sensibility due to the two snub rule – directing and editing Oscar snubs). Count is not needed – and would be misleading!
1993: All but Unforgiven and The Crying Game are eliminated and their matchup goes as follows:
– PGA goes to The Crying Game (win vs. nomination);
– DGA goes to Unforgiven (win vs. nomination);
– WGA goes to The Crying Game (win vs. nomination);
– ACE goes to Unforgiven (as The Crying Game was snubbed);
– there is no SAG;
– no major Oscar snubs – no differences there;
– since the score is 2-2 and the first two tiebreakers are unavailable, The Crying Game’s ACE snub (there are 5 slots), the only one for either, decides things in favor of Unforgiven.
1990: All but Driving Miss Daisy and Born on the Fourth of July are eliminated and their matchup goes as follows:
– PGA goes to Driving Miss Daisy (win vs. nomination);
– DGA/directing goes to Born on the Fourth of July (DGA win and Oscar nomination vs. two snubs);
– WGA goes to Driving Miss Daisy (win vs. nomination);
– ACE is not counted (there are only 3 nomination slots and a single category);
– there is no SAG;
– no further major Oscar snubs;
– Driving Miss Daisy wins by 2-1.
Any questions about any of this or anything I might have left out will, of course, not go unanswered… 🙂
Stats update for Best Picture:
All stats that held due to 1917 losing to Parasite, specifically:
INDUSTRY:
– editing nomination stat (still only beaten by Birdman since 1981, despite having to fend off challenges from contenders as strong as Roma or 1917, and that’s just in the last two years);
– ACE nomination stat;
– SAG ensemble nomination stat (which isn’t doing so hot but obviously still matters – I still use it, in any case, and it helps, even though it’s only on 88% after Parasite’s win, 22/25);
– WGA+1 stat (in 1917’s case: no movie has won Best Picture after being snubbed by AMPAS – or ACE, for that matter – for editing and then also losing the WGA);
– two snub rule (in 1917’s case: no movie has ever won Best Picture after being snubbed for both acting and editing – 87/87, after this);
– zero SAG nominations stat (no Best Picture winner since Braveheart has not had at least one SAG nomination for either acting or ensemble);
– BAFTA screenplay nomination stat (the last 16 or so Best Picture winners have all been nominated for that).
OTHER:
– Golden Globes screenplay nomination stat (last 15);
– Critics Choice screenplay nomination stat (also last 15);
– Satellite Awards screenplay nomination stat (last 16);
– Detroit Film Critics Society Best Film nomination stat (last 13 – all of them);
– Washington DC Area Film Critics Association (last 12);
– and other minor critics awards stats…
ADDITIONALLY:
– a stat I discovered earlier this Oscar season (but never found the time to post before), which says that no Best Picture winner since A Beautiful Mind (last 18) has not won an award for either their director, writer(s) or one of their actors (including special awards – rarely needed) at NBR/NYFCC/LAFCA/NSFC (any of the four; A Beautiful Mind is, in fact, the only PGA-era winner to have failed to do this), as well as that no winner since Crash (last 14) has not won at least two different awards for picture, director, screenplay or acting (again, including special awards) from the same four groups (1917 only got mentioned for cinematography at NBR, nothing else, Jojo Rabbit was in the NBR Top 10, like 1917, but got no wins whatsoever, and neither did Joker or Ford v Ferrari);
– the stat that only one of the last (now) 17 Best Picture winners didn’t win screenplay at either the WGA, BAFTA, USC Scripter, Golden Globes or Critics Choice (The Shape of Water);
– the stat that (now) 13 of the last 14 Best Picture winners had at least an 85 Metascore (Green Book, of course, being the exception).
A few of the stats that held due to Parasite winning Best Picture (over the field):
– the stat that when a movie won my preferential simulation (which I’ve done for all preferential years except the ones when The Hurt Locker and The Artist won) that was neither ruled out by any elimination rules my official predicting system uses, nor too far behind in the weakness count (more on all of that in my next post), it won Best Picture at the Oscars as well (Parasite joins Birdman and Moonlight on that list);
– the stat that no movie to have come in second or tied for second in the same simulation has ever won Best Picture;
– the NBR-GG-DGA-WGA win stat (no movie has won Best Picture since Hamlet without winning Best Film at NBR, Best Picture in either category at the Globes, the DGA or one of the two WGA categories).
Some of the stats that held due to Jojo Rabbit not winning Best Picture (not already mentioned):
INDUSTRY:
– the directing nomination stat;
– the BAFTA Best Film nomination stat (the last 23 Best Picture winners apart from Million Dollar Baby all had it).
OTHER:
– the Critics Choice directing nomination stat (last 17);
– the Golden Globes directing nomination stat (last 14);
– the Satellite Awards directing nomination stat (last 14);
– the Golden Globes screenplay nomination stat (last 14);
– the stat that no Best Picture winner has not won at least one Critics Choice award for picture, director, screenplay or acting in the BFCA era;
– the stat that no Best Picture winner has not won at least one Golden Globe or Critics Choice award for picture, director or screenplay in the same period of time (and a few years beyond);
– and a bunch of less important ones…
All stats that broke due to Parasite winning Best Picture (over the field):
INDUSTRY:
– Oscar acting nomination stat (this would have also been broken by 1917, of course);
– SAG acting nomination stat (the last 15 Best Picture winners had at least one; also a problem for 1917);
– BAFTA acting nomination stat (last 18 besides Million Dollar Baby; also a problem for 1917); it can be noted that all of these are acting-related (and were partially made up for by the SAG Ensemble win), whereas the others had all sorts of industry stats to beat, showing weakness with multiple Academy and guild branches.
OTHER:
– Critics Choice acting nomination stat (last 10; also a problem for 1917);
– NBR Top 10 stat (again – The Shape of Water also broke this; this hit takes it under 90% over the last 16 years, so it will be borderline unusable for me in the future);
– St. Louis Film Critics Association Best Film nomination stat (12 of the last 13);
– and other minor critics awards stats…
Additionally:
– the late October top 3 predicted stat (1917 would have broken this as well) – this has been holding for so long it’s almost surreal to see it fail, even though it’s been pretty obvious it would for a while… but I guess it had to, eventually.
Again, the foreign film thing was not a stat. The only relevant precedents were, obviously, the foreign films nominated for Best Picture before (since what the stat aims to “prove” is that a nominated foreign film, which is what Parasite was, cannot win Best Picture). However, only two of them had done anywhere near as well as Parasite in the precursor stage (and Oscar nominations), Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and Roma – for a total relevant sample size of 2. But, for argument’s sake, we can ignore that, and then we have 11 foreign language films previously nominated for Best Picture. Calculating their total random winning expectancy (while most of them were nominated alongside 4 other movies, three of them were facing between 7 and 9 opponents) we arrive at 1.94, so basically two expected wins out of a total 11 possible. Only two wins away from the total achieved (zero), prior to Parasite. Given how very small the sample size is and the fact that this is not a nomination stat (meaning the task at hand – winning – is quite a bit harder to achieve – since for nomination stats we are, by definition, discussing only those movies already strong enough to be nominated for whatever other award we’re using the stat in question to predict), I would say this was virtually unusable. Even before Parasite won.
Finally, a stat that held due to Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood not winning is, of course, the one about the Best Picture winner always having won either the PGA, the DGA or the WGA in the PGA era (and beyond, going all the way back to 1986).
Other observations on Best Picture (in fairly random order):
This was the first time my predicting system went fully against the PGA winner (unless we count Gravity, too) and was successful! (Of course, in its current form, it would have also gone against others – since the whole point is to come up with a set of rules that picks every single winner in the PGA era, and it alone, from the set of nominees, and then use that to predict future races -, but I’m talking about the system in its form on Oscar day of each of the years I’ve used it. I did also predict against the PGA unofficially the year of Spotlight, and got that right, but my system was going with The Big Short instead, at the time.) Therefore, even though this was a rather easy stats layout to read (the number and severity of the weaknesses 1917 and others showed was far too great, compared to Parasite’s), perhaps this was more of an achievement than I was thinking it would be… In any case, the WGA again showed why it’s still the most important Best Picture precursor (Aaron Reichwald is going to love reading this, if he’s still around), especially in years with unclear races. And why the PGA (which is now on 3 full exceptions and a half-exception in the 11 years of the preferential era) should not be treated as a particularly difficult precursor to beat just because it also uses the preferential system – I mean, even a foreign film beat it!… Speaking of which, my theory that changes in voter demographics and mentality should be reflected in precursor results, thus enabling one to focus on the stats alone and not need to worry about guessing whether or not this or other such factors will impact the Oscar outcome in unforeseeable ways is looking a bit stronger after this Parasite win. The voters were finally ready to pick a foreign film, and this was, as expected, foreshadowed in a lot of key places – at SAG, WGA and ACE. (And everywhere else within the industry, in terms of its getting the key nominations required.) It didn’t beat or break the stats – it simply followed one of the already well-established paths.
One last thing about the PGA: as I think I’ve mentioned before, that and BAFTA were the only places (of the major precursors) 1917 actually beat Parasite for picture, and one was an award voted on by producers only, who were always going to be far, far more likely to go for something like 1917 (which their history shows as well), and the same can be said for BAFTA, given the British connection. This was just far from enough proof 1917 would be a favorite over Parasite “on neutral ground”, so to speak, at the Oscars, in Best Picture. For directing it had beaten it several places. There was more evidence there. (But, again, the editing+acting snubs stat was, in hindsight, a bigger deal than the wins). The Phoenix Film Critics Society got Best Picture wrong again (they picked Joker). Even so, they’re doing better than the PGA in the preferential era – they only got The Hurt Locker, Moonlight and Parasite “wrong” (whereas the PGA, in addition to its three exceptions, also had a tie between 12 Years a Slave and Gravity). One place that did strongly foreshadow this Parasite win long before the real fight started was the AFI Awards, where, like The Artist, The King’s Speech and Roma (the only other feature films besides Harry Potter, which got it the same year as The Artist – and for the whole series, anyway) before it, Parasite got the Special Award that has now led to a Best Picture win 3/4 times (and DGA and Best Director wins the other time)…
I think that what wins BAFTA Best Film will only become relevant in the Best Picture race if they ever again decide to pick a movie they don’t think is the front runner (which is what people keep accusing the BFCA of doing – BAFTA is just as bad and, in terms of actually getting it “right”, is in fact worse) and which is also not a British production. They’ve picked either the PGA winner (The Aviator, 12 Years a Slave), the DGA winner (The Revenant, Roma), the winner of both (9 times) and/or a British movie (The Queen, Atonement, The King’s Speech – also a PGA+DGA winner, counted -, Three Billboards) every year but one since 2003, when The Pianist (which was a France-Germany-Poland-UK production, by the way – in any case, for the winner the year before, The Fellowship of the Ring, I can find no UK connection) won. The exception being Boyhood, which was still fairly widely expected to win the DGA at the time voting closed (I remember it well – a ton of people were still predicting a split at the Oscars at that point), because the DGA only announced that Birdman had won instead the day before the BAFTA ceremony. (Which was probably not the case in The Revenant and Roma’s years – there were eight days between when the DGA and BAFTA announced, those times, as I suspect is the case most years.) And Boyhood was the big Globes and Critics Choice winner, anyway, so that was hardly going against the favorite, regardless. Anyway, until BAFTA finally come up with an unexpected winner, even if they get Best Picture right, there simply will be no reason to assume it was anything but a coincidence. Even then, it will not be BAFTA that gets it right, it will be the PGA or the DGA. BAFTA will simply copy-paste and tell us nothing. They don’t even tell us anything when they pick a British winner that didn’t win the PGA or DGA – it’s not even an indication of weakness for the PGA/DGA winner, because a PGA and/or DGA winner has taken Best Picture every time that’s happened since 2003, anyway.
I was right about Jojo Rabbit not winning (especially the year just after Green Book) – I said more than once that I needed to see it to believe it. Not least of all because I never thought something with as silly-sounding a name as “Jojo Rabbit” would get handed the Academy’s biggest honour. (I couldn’t come up with any other silly-sounding Best Picture-winning titles when I checked the list, a few months ago.) Speaking of titles, again a short one triumphs – perhaps this wasn’t a non-factor in Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood’s ultimate demise. Apart from literary adaptations (which is obviously different), titles that long simply have not made it onto the list of Best Picture winners… I was also right when I said, early on (after it came out with an 85+ Metascore), that 1917 would do at least as well as The Revenant had. It followed almost the same trajectory, the key differences being that it didn’t lose the Critics Choice for director, it had WGA and Oscar screenplay nominations instead of ACE and Oscar editing nominations (arguably an improvement, especially since it also had the “excuse”), it had no SAG or Oscar acting nominations but it won the PGA (which The Revenant failed to do) to make up for it. I guess it could be argued it did a little worse since it lost Best Director (although it still matched The Revenant’s tally of 3 wins), but I had only actually been talking about its precursor run when I said this, not about how well it would do on Oscar night.
Speaking of excuses, yet again they don’t work out… The only time excuses work out in the Best Picture race is when the movie in question actually does enough in terms of wins and nominations elsewhere to render them unnecessary. 🙂 (Like Birdman or The Shape of Water did – and 1917 didn’t.) I also want to update the situation on the pre-PGA final announcement stats table I keep every year: after this Parasite win, the new “stat” is that, in the five years I’ve looked at, the Best Picture winner has always been in the top 5 in those stats rankings, and no more than 11 weighted points (and 9 unweighted points) off first place. (Parasite was third, 11 and 8 points off first, which was Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood.) Finally, I want to just say that this Oscar weekend went absolutely perfectly for me, starting with The Farewell’s brilliantly unexpected triumph at the Independent Spirit Awards (where Marriage Story, also one of my favorites of the year, did very well too) and ending with the big victory for the stats that was Parasite’s Best Picture win… I’ve been running really well in life in general since roughly the start of December (arguably even earlier than that, maybe September), so I kind of had a bit of extra confidence I would get Best Picture right this year, and it indeed panned out. That’s almost it for me for this Oscar season – one more post to make, the one about the updated form of the Best Picture-predicting system, then I’ll be off (apart from reading a few more articles and comments and replying here and there, which will probably be more or less done by the end of the week).
First I’ll do an update about Oscar contests and bets and such, as well as the stats in all other categories, then I’ll prepare the post about the stats that held and the (very few) that didn’t for Best Picture and so on and, finally, update those interested on the all-industry stats Best Picture-predicting system (not many updates have been made, and none of them played into the system picking Parasite this year anyway, but they will come into play in the future, no doubt).
So, my official stats predictions went 18/24 this year, which isn’t great, although it’s also not that bad, especially since two of those misses were shorts (where the stats, as I’ve said before – and as one would expect – are of the most unreliable kind) – I had Kitbull in animated short and Brotherhood in live action short. (Tariq Khan was right after all, when he said in a recent podcast that he was sure Brotherhood wasn’t winning.) The other categories missed were director (still regret not paying the proper amount of attention to the stats research in that category – it was the one I started with and I knew at that point that I had a ton of work left to do on the stats in all of the other categories, so I kind of rushed it, deciding way too quickly that the win stats would likely trump the snub stat, even though the latter was so, so strong – but more on that below), sound mixing (had Ford v Ferrari for both sounds – really wanted to pick a split, because of the stat about the BAFTA sound winner almost always winning at least one of the sound categories at the Oscars, but it turns out I probably would have split them wrong anyway, so I’m not entirely unhappy that I went with the safer option this time), makeup (the stats said something risky – Joker) and visual effects (the stats had The Irishman as a slight favorite over 1917, with the others far, far behind).
It was nice to get film editing right so easily (the stats were quite clear), even though others seemed to have big doubts about what to pick in that category, as well as production design, costumes, sound editing, score, documentary and animated feature, all of which were also categories with a lot of options, seemingly, if one paid no mind to stats. And, of course, picture, which had Parasite as a fairly clear (even if not large) favorite. My unofficial predictions (which, it should be said, are also based in large part on the stats, since they’re usually just me going with the second or third favorite according to the stats I use – which may well not be the complete set of stats available, given how little time I dedicate to categories outside of the big one each year – instead of the top favorite, for various reasons) went 21/24, the same score I got in the Awards Daily contest. I had 1917 in the two sound categories and visual effects, Nefta Football Club in live action short and Hair Love in animated short – those were the only differences compared to my stats predictions. I stuck to Joker in makeup, which felt like a mistake, but I was too lazy (and there was just too little time available – none, really, given how late I completed my research and how from there on it was a mad rush to get everything done that needed to be done before the ceremony) to make a correction post, so I didn’t… I did go with Bombshell there in the Awards Daily contest, though. (And in 2-3 others.)
As for Oscar bets, I made a profit of almost exactly 25% of my total investment. (Roughly $18 profit. I don’t bet a lot – I can’t really afford to take such risks, plus I don’t really want to.) Apart from last year, when I lost a very small amount (and percentage of the stake), I’ve always made a profit on Oscar bets. Goes to show (yet again) just how strong Oscar stats are… All of the profit this year was due to this one bet on Parasite to win both Best Picture and Best Director, which I made at the last moment because the odds were just far too appealing (17 to 1) – I also made one on Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood to get the same two awards, which gave even better odds (127 to 1). As I said elsewhere, I entered six Oscar contests and got one first place (which was actually second place, behind the site owner who, amazingly, finished first, one point ahead of me – categories were assigned various point values -, but was ineligible for the prize) for a $50 Amazon gift card. Strangely, that was, apart from one where I really went crazy and made all kinds of out there picks, the contest in which I got the fewest categories right (18/24)… But I had Parasite there for picture and, apart from director, I only missed techs and shorts, which ended up scoring me enough points. The standings are here:
https://funeratic.com/thorough-movie-reviews/predict-the-oscars?formsuccess=register
I did not, however, pick Parasite in picture at Awards Daily (went with insurances and intuitive predictions a lot in this one – and figured picture was too important for me to go with my intuitive prediction, which was still Parasite, instead of the insurance pick), which cost me at least a tie for first. I only missed picture, director and sound editing here (went with 1917 in the sounds).
A few notes on the other categories besides Best Picture and the stats situation for each:
– Picture, as I said, I will address in a separate post. The four acting categories, cinematography and international feature were all either locks or near-locks and everybody knew it (and the stats agreed), so there’s nothing to discuss there.
– Director was far from a lock (in fact, Mendes was probably not even the favorite, in hindsight), and this is very easy to prove: only 1/86 (now 1/87) Best Director winners had been snubbed in both editing and all acting categories before (the exception happening in 1950), for a 99% stat with a huge sample (as far as these things go), whereas a DGA+GG+BAFTA directing winner had lost the Oscar 1/8 times (if we don’t count the time Affleck won all of those for Argo and was snubbed at the Oscars) since BAFTA has been a precursor to the Oscars, for only an 88% stat with a much, much smaller sample – and the time the DGA+GG+BAFTA directing winner lost the Oscar was one of the only two times that director did not also win the Critics Choice (Ang Lee in 2001 – lost the Critics Choice to Soderbergh), which Mendes also kinda’ didn’t this year, at least not outright. Even factoring in that Bong only tied him at Critics Choice (as well as the BAFTA voting procedure changing in 2012 or 2013 or whenever it was, exactly), it’s actually quite clear which of these two stats is stronger, and it’s not the one pointing towards Mendes winning… (Even if we think it’s not clear… well, then it’s not clear, and Mendes and Bong look roughly equally likely to win.) It was really silly of me to rush the research and conclusions for this category – I blame the short season, honestly, because I really never had a moment to breathe, especially over the last 2-3 weeks. I could have made the greatest stats call I’d ever made (even better than Colman last year and such). The stats still made that call, though, which I’m quite happy about – I was just in too much of a hurry to read them properly. Lesson learned, hopefully…
– In the screenplay categories the stats agreed with most people’s predictions (and the eventual winners), so not much to discuss there either. Likewise for original score and documentary short. SAG+WGA wins resulting in a screenplay win at the Oscars each time goes to 12/12 – that’s the only observation worth making, probably.
– For film editing Ford v Ferrari was a clear favorite because a) BAFTA was already as good a predictor as ACE, if not better and b) all the rest had major snubs to contend with, including Parasite (no BAFTA nomination, no sound mixing nomination – the last 12 film editing Oscar winners had all had that one) and Jojo Rabbit (the sound mixing one plus no Critics Choice editing nomination and no Gold Derby Awards nomination in that category either – all Oscar winner have had it, since Gold Derby has been voting on awards).
– In production design, Parasite had no BAFTA nomination plus it was contemporary (those almost never win), and 1917 had no BAFTA costume design nomination (also an important one for production design winners at the Oscars, most of the time) and had won none of the ADG categories (which most Oscar winners here do), leaving Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood as the (again fairly clear) stats favorite.
– Costume design was trickier. Little Women’s CDG snub was bizarre (I honestly can find no better explanation than its being a late-breaker); it also had no production design nomination at the Oscars. However, that one’s not a very prohibitive stat at all, and Jojo Rabbit, whose CDG win is less predictive than BAFTA, in general, had been snubbed by the BFCA, by whom 10/10 Oscar winners in this category had at least been nominated. Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood was the more plausible alternative, but it hadn’t won anything, and 15/17 Oscar costume design winners (in the Gold Derby era) had won either the BAFTA, the Critics Choice or the Gold Derby Award in this category. Elizabeth: The Golden Age had won the Satellite Award for costumes and Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them had won the BAFTA for production design – Once didn’t win either of those. So, I decided that Little Women’s CDG snub was probably a timing fluke (it was also not a killer, there had been several exceptions in the past, even if not recently) and, since the production design nomination stat also has plenty of exceptions, the win stat seemed stronger. (Yes, I spent more time pondering the stats balance for Best Costume Design than for Best Director – I am that dumb…)
– A lot of the same stats were in play for both sound editing and sound mixing. The CAS nomination is important for both and 1917 (the BAFTA sound winner) didn’t have it, which is why my official prediction was Ford v Ferrari (the MPSE Effects/Foley and CAS winner), although the fact that the BAFTA sound winner had won at least one of the sound Oscars 11 of the last 12 years gave me pause, and I really wanted to predict some sort of split because of it. I probably would have picked the wrong split, though, because the CAS nomination stat was stronger for sound mixing.
– Song was fairly straightforward: all songs that had won both the Critics Choice and the Golden Globe and been nominated for the Oscar had prevailed, and Rocketman has now done just that itself. It also won the Gold Derby Award and the Satellite Award. True, it had no other Oscar nominations (although Egerton I’m sure was close), which is why Stand Up (which did, and wasn’t snubbed anywhere) and, I guess, even Into the Unknown, could also win, but that wasn’t enough reason to make it the favorite. The win stat was on 100% here and the snub stat, obviously, was nowhere near as strong as the aforementioned directing one.
– The reasons I went with Joker in makeup were a) the last seven Best Picture nominees to be included in this category had won it (although maybe Joker wouldn’t have made it with only three slots available, as had been the case until this year) and b) the last six winners of the Best Period and/or Character Make-Up guild award had also won the Oscar (including Suicide Squad). None of these were particularly strong stats, though (the first one has got several exceptions before this just-broken 7/7 streak, and the second is based on a very small sample), so Bombshell’s wins were maybe ultimately more important – I kinda’ rushed this one, too. There was just so little time!…
– In visual effects The Irishman and 1917 were way ahead of the rest, because of not just the VFXS supporting win and the BAFTA effects win, respectively, but also their screenplay, production design and cinematography nominations (none of the other three had even a single one of these, not even Critics Choice and Gold Derby effects winner Avengers: Endgame), which also correlate very well with the VFX Oscar win. The Irishman was a favorite due to 1917 not having either the VFXS supporting win or the VFXS nomination in the main category (16 of the last 17 Oscar winners had had one or the other). But it seems the BAFTA win should, perhaps, weigh more – unclear.
– Documentary was a lot easier to call, stats-wise. There has been no documentary winner not predominantly in the English language since at least 2006. Also, Honeyland had missed at BAFTA and ACE and wasn’t among the DocNYC mentions, and For Sama somehow didn’t make the Critics Choice Best Documentary lineup (even though there are at least 10 slots there – didn’t count) and also missed at both DGA and ACE. The Cave and The Edge of Democracy had similar or even worse snub issues, so American Factory, the DGA, LAFCA and DocNYC winner, was the clear favorite.
– Also fairly trivial was animated feature, where no winner ever has been snubbed by either BAFTA, BFCA, HFPA, Gold Derby, PGA, ACE or CAS. Klaus, Missing Link and I Lost My Body were each snubbed by at least four of those groups, and How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World was snubbed by BAFTA and ACE, which is more than enough anyway, so the easy pick was Critics Choice, Gold Derby, PGA, ACE and CAS winner Toy Story 4. The ACE winner in this category has won the Oscar every single time it’s been nominated. (I think it’s 10/10 now.)
– Some of the more useful stats that didn’t work out in the short categories this year were the longest title stat in live action short (all other stats held) and the IMDb rating/number of other wins and nominations stats in animated short. Again, compared to some of the stats one can use for the other categories, these are mediocre, at best, and I only use them when I’m not sure between a few shorts or if they all point away from a certain contender.
Next year:
Red, White and Water directed by Lila Neugebauer. Jennifer Lawrence
The French Dispatch. Wes Anderson (director/screenplay); Benicio del Toro, Adrien Brody, Tilda Swinton, Léa Seydoux, Frances McDormand, Timothée Chalamet, Lyna Khoudri, Jeffrey Wright, Mathieu Amalric, Steve Park, Bill Murray, Owen Wilson
Respect. Liesl Tommy (director); Tracey Scott Wilson (screenplay); Jennifer Hudson, Forest Whitaker, Marlon Wayans, Audra McDonald, Mary J. Blige, Marc Maron
Dune. Denis Villeneuve (director/screenplay); Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts (screenplay); Timothée Chalamet, Rebecca Ferguson, Oscar Isaac, Josh Brolin, Stellan Skarsgård, Dave Bautista, Zendaya, David Dastmalchian, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Chang Chen, Charlotte Rampling, Jason Momoa, Javier Bardem
I can’t say I didn’t see It coming, but I guess I didn’t see them actually denying Mendes after all those precursors. Even the starfuckery BFCA, which were pretty spot-on this year compared to the increasingly go-their-own-way (cough, racist, cough) BAFTA, tied the directors and gave Pic to Tarantino. You’d think Mendes punched someone at BAFTA… Is this the end of American studio filmmaking as we know it? No, nor should Parasite be blamed with the low ratings since it wasn’t even widely expected to win the top awards. I applaud the Academy (and also IFC this weekend) for not only making history but making a dent by picking a truly deserving, superior film that they clearly LOVED. Sasha is right that there were a number of good American studio pictures in the race, but I didn’t think it was a great year. HOLLYWOOD and IRISHMAN were massively overrated and flawed and got in on their filmmakers’ clout rather than merit or passion. 1917 was a film no one hated or hate-voted against, but also not a film that inspired that much passion among cinephiles. I had no problem with it winning, and wouldn’t deprive Mendes for the difficulty of the project, but I didn’t think it felt like some huge epic. Or some interesting story or character journey. Casting might’ve hurt it. And nothing else felt like a traditional Best Picture either, opening the door for a film that had people talking, like Birdman or Moonlight did.
To calm the horses on the enthusiasm for Parasite’s Best Picture win… let’s recap…
Foreign Language film directors that won Best Director
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
Foreign Language performances that won in acting
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Roberto Benigni, Life is Beautiful
Sofia Loren, Two Women
Screenplays written in a Foreign Language that won
Talk to Her
Parasite
probably I am missing some…
Federico Fellini got nominated for TWELVE Oscars and never won…
still, too much to be done… basically, the list of names that won Oscars at the big 8, for Foreign Language film is comprised of 7 people. 2 from South Korea, 1 from France, 1 from Mexico, 2 from Italy and 1 from Spain
I think Divorce Italian Style won script and I think Marie-Louise (obscure!) and Red Balloon won the defunct story award or the equivalent.
A Man And A Woman won Original Screenplay as well as Foreign Language; the only instance of this, I believe, before Parasite.
Yes but as academy tend to do far too often for lot people’s own liking here’s they snub certain categories of film genres or types or origin of filmmakers nationality for several decades too long and then they go in overcompensation overdrive . And fact that most of those individual winners for all those categories you listed have been crammed into a 16 year max timeframe and then you break that down of all those names you mention , most of them happened in last 7 years …bit over the top don’t you think ? And yet had academy woken up to itself given best picture chance to dozen other prominent quality foreign film’s for previous decade and one before that then it fair to say academy choices in this last 15 yrs would be more balanced than way the academy had overccompensatedcfor the or prior decades of negligence before early 2000’s.
I also strongly do not believe Bong is an auteur it huge call to say that Parasite truthfully is his first international appealing film. His only other one snowpiercer may rate for some people and critics liked it but audiences didn’t leave elevate it to level of international appeal that Parasite has achieved.
An auteur is some who consistently reinvents the wheel and it appeal transcends critics and industry consistently as in numerous high profile international known enthused about film’s. Snow piercer was not that hugely talked about so question remains by comparison to academy it will haunt them for giving parasite everything: how is it Bong who one year older than me and is very much new to Hollywood game irrespective regardless of how high the critic twtibg of parasite was but given hw newer to the game than by contrast when a true TRUE auteurs in Spielberg, Scorsese for instance in their early 40’s for nothing and even then thr y didn’t in their early 50’s. So how can qvqdemy rationalise at that time by contrast BONG is of the profile of real experienced PROVEN auteues? I think they title can only be earned by doing more 5hqn a one hit wonder.
How many did sPielberg get best director noms for or Scorsese for instance before they got their breakthrough ? I quite sure not till an average btw Spielberg and Scorsese from first time they were nominated best director a massive 18 yr average time gap maybe even average if 2 decades to breakthrough .
Hitchcock was an auteur so was Kubrik and we all know how much thr y proved themselves to consistent public regard and appeal and redefined genres of film’s they made many still talked about still influential 5oday .
The jury is very much out on whether Bong is an auteur. Honestly bit of overreqctive hysteria here of parasites sweep some people have forgotten average time for more established long serving loyal Hollywood director at auteur level and beyond is average of 18 years.
So questions will come to academy pressure be on them to resolve these pesky I owe u’s before their centenary occurs in 7 yrs time.
There is is simply no compelling case for academy to contradict their own past treatment of then young Spielberg and Scorsese and still ongoing neglect of other of great true auteuers yet to win best director Oscar in Ridley Scott, by going against their own rules and rushing to give award win for directir and evetything else to Bong just cos he won one oscar so quickly for director does NOY make him a auteur and one of the modern greats time and consistency in his future film releases how well thr y received by both critics and audiences alike is what will reveal whether or not he be true auteur or not but cone now let not forget academy own tendency to do I owe u’s for best director Oscar much more often than not.
I give 3 Oscars for parasite Inc best pic no more than that and bestcdieector I give to Mendes
Bong is an author. His films tend to be a sharp criticism on capitalism and social inequality.
The Academy MUST start from next year onwards incorporate the key demographics to consider in who they vote for best picture. Here an observation to highlight their inconsistency and hypocrisy it was fabulous for academy to break with tradition and gift feature performances for Billie Eilish (man she is hot and even boasted well a bit modestly how turth people comment on her boobs for 20 wow ok i being purposefully shallow dont judge me too harshly but wow she a talent i watch her space to land her first oscar nomination for bond 25 next year clearly NOT cos of her ‘boobs for her age factor:P’) but she really has a voice that resonates and does not conform to celine dion/ mariah carey past tradition style of academy eiether, But point is if you average out refreshing feature performers age demographics of:
Billie Eilish- early 20’s , Eminem – is he nearly 50? and Elton John mid 70’s right? (shame on me if i wrong pls correct me) then you have a average age demographic of that ONE key field that declined in ratings…
So help me out here people oscar see fit average age rating of say 35 between thos e 3 performers yet they totally foolishly forget the key ’18-49′ dempgraphic they need to appeal to? hypocrisy no?
Oh and don’;t bag Eminem too much- you know eventually i see his film ‘8 mile’ but also it great that anyone of any age can present, express themselves just be themselves and show it with pride. whether it be Eilish standout green hair – Eminem rapper- rap style- true to his passion,. or Elton John own brand of auithenticity one thing you cant take away from academy theme was diversity pride in it refreshingly minus the politics – one thing i credit academy NOT caving to for change this year as opposed in part as past years and having consistent theme..now next time consider not neglect your key demographics
Billie Eilish just turned 18.
Lol then re : everything I said bout her all more amazing
But Eminem’s performances was kept a secret? How is that supposed to help boost ratings when no one knew to tune in and watch for him?
Well then i stand corrected maybe that also small part of ratings problems the academy have suffered over last decade
THE LESSON regarding ratings downfall for once popular shows like Academy is simply this:
TO LEARN TO ADAPT IS TO SURVIVE TO ACTUALLY ADAPT IS TO THRIVE
Oh and internet has long way to go before it 3/4 takes over proportion per capita of people who own a TV the TV industry sales are adapting to consumer demands and in some major countries that not a failure new technologies for traditional viewing mediums is always big draw card. for record you can argue overall consumer spending is down but that impacts everything doersn’t necessarily mean that those people on budget more so thasn ever in Australia atm with weak economic forecasts, that does not mean that people who own older TV value it less or who grew uip with TV believe in it will shift to internet evolution takes time and right now? there record amount of distrust ciorculating online and it be 2 decades at least before more people per capita in major economic hubs of world trash their TV”s i think 3.
Not that i much fussed who downvoted my very potent words of wisdom for the times but whoever it was enlighten me how can ANTYONE survive in this day and age if we DONT learn at least want to LEARN to adapt to life challenges and if we learn adapt as a people then how can we not thrive in a changing society while stating true who we are what we believe in? i think some0one came online drunk or bad night sleep who downvoted me no? joke:P or maybe not?:PP:P
The more frightful drop is the 32% decline in the 18-49 vs. last year. Predictability of acting races and the Bong Hive Academy voters going crazy contributed to this.
If they are going hostless, they should find a way not to rely on the music branch’s choices, consistently the most horrendous among every branch.
JP, they could have had Elton and his best song from last year, Erivo, Beyonce, Taylor Swift, Idina and Kristen Bell (The Next Right Thing). They settled for Chrissie Metz and the holy roller movie, Randy Newman and the Pixar Cash Grab, and told Bey, T-Swift and KB to take the night off.
I actually liked the Warren/Metz song, but that Newman song was brutal. Did it even have more than one line??
music stars are not going to improve boring film awards. people watch movie awards for movies not music. so if there’s a problem it’s with movies first and music is well down the list. not saying they couldn’t get better performers but most people will rather not have Eminem like number that stalls the show no matter who performms.
Good riddance.
It goes to show… that it’s not about the movies nominated that would attract an audience b/c you can’t get any bigger than Joker with its 11 nominations.
They need a popular host. The host serves also as a publicist for the show as well. They would go on talk shows days and weeks ahead to promote the ceremony. Now they’ve lost that element of publicity.
Exactly. They had so many huge movies nominated but the ceremony in itself was a disaster. They desperately need a host and more promotion. Nobody even fucking knew about Eminem.
No not quite my long time loyal comrade compatriot in arms ehre how are ya? had good start to new year? as i remarked before the inbuilt scepticism for now past followers who feel mislead by film like ‘Joker’ or 1917 where they know the most nominated film wont win best pic cos that thje awful habit academy got themselves into and film audiences worked them out in past decade your part way right though i see in part where you come from.-no audiences no longer as gullble and ‘dumb’ as academy treat them andf therein lies the problem for academy to ponder over.
I predict as my gift of foresight maybe not prediction of what wins best pic year on year but my foresight for trend is a cinematic ‘correction and balancing’ is coming ..and it may be sooner than you think of not next year year after within 5 years hopefully for us and academy sake in public eye they give due consideration most nominated asnd popular of those films nominated and acclaimed all at once win best pic it really is as simple as that and acafemy have embarked for decadesa onm many snubs passed that have stained their reputation in eyes of the for now abandoned lost viewing demographic dont you think i have a point there guys?
You make no sense. Joker had Phoenix winning and 1917 was the frontrunner and it still didn’t attract the audience.
inncorrect you miss the point the inherent inbuilt scepticism as consequence of oscars pension for snubbing most nominated and most popular and most talked about movies for best pic win that not strong argument sorry to say in context what i sayting
I agree it needs a host, but having a host or popular movies being nominated/winning won’t solve the ratings woes. Television viewing habits has changed the past decade.
Not going to recover the kind of juggernaut ratings in the past. But it does help, a few points at least.
https://media3.giphy.com/media/28NeAV1LA3WsaR94i8/giphy.gif
Dare I add that the calendar was awful. Instead of feeling the suspense of a shortened season, I was too tired to enjoy the Oscars after basically four consecutive weeks of award shows. Everyone is still tired from the long-ass Grammys and the Super Bowl. You’ve got to spread it out more to build anticipation. Same can be said for the show. It always runs over, but I’d have traded their bad scripted banter last night for more segues and more relevant clip packages throughout the night.
I would not blame Bong. If anything, the expectation of 1917 winning bit inspired no one. Clearly Joaquin and his increasingly scripted/preplanned speeches didn’t help. Any ratings they did have probably went to the toilet after an uncharacteristically bland Janelle Monae opening performance and Martin and Rock making age-old political jokes as if the audience is at fault for the racist nominations.
Parasite’s victory is the first time in a long time where:
1. The most critically-acclaimed film of the year (highest Metascore, most number of #1 spots in the critics’ best-of-the-year lists)
2. The audience favourite (highest IMDB score)
3. Best Picture Oscar
all lined up nicely. The last film that achieved this was Return of The King, I think. (12 Years A Slave came close, but Wolf of Wall Street edged it out on IMDB).
Sources:
https://www.metacritic.com/feature/best-movies-released-in-2019
https://criticstop10.com/best-movies-of-2019/
https://www.imdb.com/best-of/highest-rated-movies-of-2019/ls091392448/?sort=user_rating,desc&st_dt=&mode=detail&page=1
I can see Saoirse Ronan, Adam Driver, Scarlett Johansson, Margot Robbie, Florence Pugh as future Oscar winners. And the best time to win is when you sweep and are undeniable.
Something must’ve gone terribly wrong if Saoirse Ronan never wins an Oscar.
Ronan is the next Streep in that she’ll get nominated for anything she’s in, and then win whenever there’s a year there are no other viable contenders.
needs a winning role. which means getting out of her comfort zone – wide-eyed feisty young woman trying to break away from stiffling society norms. Those are not winning roles.
Or Amy Adams
Ronan is the most certain future winner of this group. I bet she’s winning before her 30th birthday.
“most certain future winner”
tell that to Amy Adams. you can have 100 noms but if every year you are nominated someone else has the role, you are toast. and yes, even body-of-work winners have the role.
thank you! that’s what I’m saying. win when everyone wants you to win cause they think you are the best. much less backlash that way.
I know it’s kind of tacky but I tend to do year-in-advance predictions on the day after the Oscars. So if anyone’s interested, here’s what I’m predicting:
Best Picture
Ammonite
Nominees:
Nightmare Alley
The French Dispatch
Nomadland
Tenet
Mank
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Next Goal Wins
West Side Story
If there are 10 nominees:
Blonde
Best Director
Guillermo Del Toro (Nightmare Alley)
Nominees:
Francis Lee (Ammonite)
David Fincher (Mank)
Christopher Nolan (Tenet)
Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)
Best Original Screenplay
Ammonite
Nominees:
The French Dispatch
Mank
Nomadland
Tenet
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Nominees:
Next Goal Wins
Nightmare Alley
Blonde
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Best Actress
Ana de Armas (Blonde)
Nominees:
Kate Winslet (Ammonite)
Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley)
Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Best Actor
Gary Oldman (Mank)
Nominees:
Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley)
Timothée Chalamet (The French Dispatch)
Michael Fassbender (Next Goal Wins)
Denzel Washington (Macbeth)
Best Supporting Actor
Frank Langella (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Nominees:
David Strathairn (Nomadland)
Adrian Brody (Blonde)
David Alvarez (West Side Story)
Richard Jenkins (Nightmare Alley)
Best Supporting Actress
Saoirse Ronan (Ammonite)
Nominees:
Toni Collette (Nightmare Alley)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Elisabeth Moss (Next Goal Wins)
Amanda Seyfried (Mank)
Best Editing
Tenet
Nominees:
Nightmare Alley
Ammonite
The French Dispatch
Mank
Best Cinematography
Nightmare Alley
Nominees:
Tenet
The French Dispatch
Mank
Dune
Best Production Design
The French Dispatch
Nominees:
Nightmare Alley
Tenet
Dune
West Side Story
Best Costume Design
Nightmare Alley
Nominees:
The French Dispatch
Dune
West Side Story
Ammonite
Best Original Score
Mank
Nominees:
Nightmare Alley
The French Dispatch
Tenet
Dune
Best Visual Effects
Tenet
Nominees:
Dune
The Eternals
Wonder Woman 1984
Black Widow
Best Sound Mixing
West Side Story
Nominees:
Tenet
Dune
No Time to Die
Mank
Best Sound Editing
Tenet
Nominees:
Dune
West Side Story
No Time to Die
The French Dispatch
Best Makeup/Hairstyling
Mank
Nominees:
Nightmare Alley
The French Dispatch
West Side Story
Blonde
Best International Feature
Undine
Nominees:
Benedetta
New Nadav Lapid Film
New Abderrahmane Sissako Film
New Xavier Beauvois Film
Best Documentary Feature
Bloody Nose, Empty Pockets
Nominees:
Welcome to Chechnya
Boys State
Epicentro
The Fight
Best Animated Feature
Soul
Nominees:
Onward
Vivo
Over the Moon
Wolfwalkers
Hm – where is In the Heights – that’s going to garner some nods.
I’d be very happy if it did because I’m really excited about it and I’m expecting it to get good reviews and make a lot of money but when West Side Story comes out, voters can so easily forget it and make it “that other diverse musical this year”. And if it’s not getting in picture, I feel like movies like that rarely get other nominations just randomly (especially as its design probably isn’t “Oscar showy” and its actors possibly not well-known enough in the minds of Academy voters)
I kind of hate the title of Fincher’s movie. I know it comes from the name Mankiewicz but it sounds so weird. Anyway really excited for it and Tenet.
Off topic, but why Ronan played someone who is 11 years older than Winslet’s character in Ammonite?
It’s not tacky, it’s fun. These look pretty good BTW (at least on paper), nice job!!
I hardly knew about any of these yet so thanks.
Good stuff but massive Dune underprediction in above the lines.
its too late breaking of a movie like 1917 but its also more pulpy like starwars than an awards contender and warner bros is shaking in their pants that this could turn into another blade runner 2049. Villenue has not yet proved that he is a commercially strong director.
Dune book is anything but pulpy. if it was than WB wouldn’t be shaking in their boots but I doubt they do anyway. they offered Dune to Villeneuve despite BR2049 flop. or kept him on the project. they agreed to split the book in 2 movies so december movie is Pt 1. They didn’t film 2 back to back. So that shows confidence rather than concern.
you need to understand from Warner bros perspective….they are in the business of retaining homegrown directors. Nolan, Eastwood etc. So that when these directors make awards-worthy movies they can keep that aspect of studio in good condition. Giving dune to denis is more hopefulness than guarantee. They are hoping that the movie somehow makes money and good enough to win awards since he is consistent. But they are scared. BR2049 is such a snooze-fest as much as it is critically acclaimed. Dune is a second chance…not a guarantee.
Denis is snoozefest period. But Dune is dynamic enough so if he turns it into a snooze it’s all on him. That said, WB does seem confident to me.
I question the Fincher strength because Netflix clearly has issues sealing the deal.
All those nominations for French Dispatch, but not Anderson? GREAT call on Denzel, I think he could take that all the way.
Tenet is gonna win film editing…call it now
Tenet, In the Heights and West Side Story are three likely Film Editing competitors for the win
lets wait and see if in the heights atleast turns into a decent movie first.
there is not a single reason to think it won’t… Crazy Rich Asians was a competently made film that it was in the running for several Oscar nominations till almost the last minute. It put its director in the map… Lin-Manuel Miranda was key to the success of Mary Poppins Returns, and if we are going to play the long overlooked character actor card, Jimmy Smits is right there… the cinematography looks stelar in the trailer, and the tone, engaging.
Of course, we have seen films that looked great in the trailer and then bombed big time on all fronts. But with one year in advance… we judge and analyze with what we have.
I think these are good. I’d include Hillbilly Elegy.
That seems like a good call
Very tantalizing list. But with French Dispatch’s large cast, I wonder: Would Chalamet be nominated in Lead? Is his role that large? Is anybody’s? Also, don’t you think that Tim might be nominated in Lead for Dune?
I was mostly going off of this Anderson quote:
But of course I’m not sure whether Chalamet is this “American journalist” but since his movies often have a young male point of view, I wouldn’t be surprised if that character is Chalamet
An appealing thought is a Bill Murray nom for supporting i guess…
You may very well be right. I was the one making the shaky assumption that, because there’s a large cast, the movie is an ensemble piece. There could be an American journalist protagonist whose story we follow, and I agree that Chalamet could be spot-on casting for such a role. So, we’ll see. Very much looking forward in any case.
“I know it’s kind of tacky but I tend to do year-in-advance predictions”
if this is tacky then I wish we would all be tacky.
these look fantastic, Ferdinand — I’m really impressed.
[featured comment]
Hi Ryan and Ferdinand, either of you know which films should we watched out from Sundance?
At least ones I’m paying attention to:
For Oscars:
Minari
The Father
Otherwise:
Never, Rarely, Sometimes, Always
Kajillionaire
Palm Springs
Shirley
Zola
The Nest
Promising Young Woman
Bad Hair
I think the problem with this list is, you are making the same mistake that many people made last year by pitting the race between scorsese and tarantino. Just because they are name talent doesnt mean their movies are always front runners. Chalamet is supporting
How is that? My best picture prediction is a Francis Lee film and while I quite like God’s Own Country, I wouldn’t call him “a name”. And in terms of predicting nominations to big directors, that’s just how year-in-advance predictions often work because we have no idea about the smaller films in the race and thus predicting them can be very difficult (and Scorsese and Tarantino both got nominated, which is pretty good for predictions that are made this early)
waiti, nolan, guillermo, fincher, wes anderson, sorkin are all not gonna hit the bullseye . Some one will be off the mark. However i will give it to you for predicting tenet for film editing..that could happen. Ammonite is more of a wishful thinking than possibility.
Then what are you predicting?
i think tenet will be received by academy somewhere between how inception and interstellar are received. Sorkin movie will not be a big contender. Fincher could be big but i dont see him winning. Waiti will not be a huge contender. Guillermo is up in the air. Most his movies are not academy worthy stuff. Anderson could be a big contender.
No Bergman Island???
I’d love that (it’s one of my most anticipated of the year, Mia Hansen-Løve is one of the most exciting filmmakers working these days with two absolute masterpieces (Goodbye, First Love and Eden) and one that’s only a little bit less impressive than those (Things to Come) so basically anything she makes I’ll want to see)
You will regret not mentioning In the Heights… from the trailer alone it seems like a latino version of La La Land
Is Nightmare Alley going to be released in this 2020? I don’t think so i tought it has a 2021 release. What do you think about Larrain’s “The True American” ; Mike Mills “C’mon C’mon” and the next PT Anderson project? Why didn’t you put them in your list?
I don’t know but at least some people have made assumptions that Nightmare Alley would be 2020. Mike Mills and Pablo Larraín aren’t necessarily the most Oscar friendly filmmakers and while I wanted to inclued PTA, eventually I just couldn’t find space for him in picture or original screenplay, at which point the likelihood of acting or design nominations for a high school film seemed quite small. Also, I felt that with Nolan, Wes Anderson and Fincher (who the Oscars seem to like more) already in the lineup, I shouldn’t predict too many internet favorites
Interesting what you said. Anyway I think PT Anderson is more oscar friendly than Nolan for example. And as you know Pt anderson never maked canonic movies so he’s coming with a non canonic high school movie. Nolan has never been a real oscar contender and people in the Academy don’t seem to be keen on those type of sci-fi action movies. Larrain is coming with a movie talking about America and racism so the Topic is really oscar bait.
Great work, thanks! Actually a good help to get an overview and make me feel excited about what’s coming up. Did you also do this last year and if yes, how many Best Picture noms did you get right?
I’ll post the best picture lineups (much more fun to laugh at all the bad choices I made) since at least 2016 when are the oldest ones I can find (2016 one not a year in advance and instead from early April but the winner at least was the same as in my year-in-advance predictions which was only winners back then):
2019 (2/9 correctly):
Winner
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Nominees:
The Woman in the Window
The Goldfinch
The Irishman
Little Women
Untitled Todd Haynes Project
The Truth
Us
Radegund
The possible 10th nominee:
The Lion King
2018 (2/8 correctly):
Winner
Beautiful Boy
Nominees:
If Beale Street Could Talk
First Man
Widows
Backseat [later renamed Vice]
Where’d You Go, Bernadette
At Eternity’s Gate
Roma
Radegund
The possible 10th nominee:
Mary Queen of Scots
2017 (2.5/8 correctly):
Winner:
The Glass Castle
Nominees:
Blade Runner 2049
Under the Silver Lake
Downsizing
Dunkirk
The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara
Darkest Hour
Annihilation
The possible 9th and 10th nominees:
Wonderstruck
Molly’s Game
2016: (3/9 correctly)
Winner:
Moonlight
Nominees:
Billy Lynn’s long halftime walk
Silence
Collateral beauty
La la land
The secret scripture
Lion
Trespass against us
The birth of a nation
The possible 10th nominee:
Loving
Given how hard it is to evaluate this one year in advance without knowing much more about the projects than cast, director and probably a sum-up of the story, you really did a great job – and you predicted Moonlight correctly, amazing! I mean, to me this wouldn’t have looked like a typical front-runner for the Oscars?!
My line of thinking was basically just: “After two years of #Oscarssowhite we need a film with an African American cast for the Oscars, this movie sounds incredible, it sounds actorly and writing-focused enough and this script is supposedly masterful so maybe it can win”. Basically when the trailer came out and everyone started to freak out and put it in their best picture predictions, that’s when I started pulling back and stopped predicting it because suddenly it looked very different than what I had expected and because it simply looked too good to win best picture
I’m away from home today, and it’s not easy to build a huge poll on WordPress mobile.
But tomorrow let’s compile a list of promising upcoming movie for 2020 — 150 title or so.
I think phantom already has a list of 135 that maybe he’ll let us use as the superstructure.
Then we’ll put them all in a giant poll and see which 10 rise to the top. Tomorrow, alright? So start thinking! Oscars 2021, here we come.
I’ve already got a list of a bit over 100, I’ll try to find some more stuff.
Robert Peters, your posts are doing nothing but belittling the opinions of people who loved Parasite. The people here are just trying to enjoy the moment, and you find it necessary to incessantly downplay it.
If you want to contribute positively to the discussion, stop replying to people’s posts and demoting their love for Parasite, but rather promote and post about the movies you did enjoy and your happiness of their successes on Oscar night. Because that’s what everyone else is doing.
IMO, Parasite Picture win isn’t hard to explain. It’s Director that needs some thinking. But Picture was a possibility that many were calling, or even if they didn’t settle for it, they acknowledged it could happen thanks to inevitable Script win + Director and Editing noms and bonus SAG win (compensates for no acting noms). 1917 didn’t have Editing and Actors (including SAG) and wasn’t going to win Script so it was vulnerable. But Director was a shock because Mendes kept winning, though we now know that Bong must have been really close to winning at #2.
Mendes also expected to win – he had the most surprised reaction. But Bong and Parasite were viable threats who were also the critics favorites. It’s not like with acting where there were no serious threats. And the whole ScarJo upset was ridiculous.
Bong was a viable threat but obviously a hidden one due to Mendes sweep so Mendes sweep was deemed stronger for Director win than support Parasite was getting elsewhere (WGA, SAG, ACE wins, Director/Scirpt/Editing noms) . However, that support made parasite Picture upset more likely which many predicted. ScarjO upset was pure wishcasting on some people’s part and not comparable to parasite/Bong.
Wondering if we will ever see another chance like in 2008, with Waltz with Bashir, which was nominated for Best Foreign Language Film, but also was animated and documentary, so it is the only case I remember, that could have been nominated for the FOUR Best Picture (Long Subject) Awards… looking back, it should have been nominated for all four, plus Screenplay, Director, Film Editing and Score.
I don’t think that movie counts as a documentary, it definitely had fictionalized elements in it. It also didn’t use real clips or interviews to corroborate the claims made in the movie. It was more a dramatic retelling of someone’s experiences. But isn’t that what most biopics, or even something like Bombshell or The Big Short is?
Sarah Polley’s Stories We Tell is a documentary with fictionalized elements.
HEAVILY fictionalized elements to the point of absurdity, especially since it was so easy to spot the faked footage. Not sure what Polley was thinking there.
It’s in the title.
And soft pedaled big time in the publicity materials for the movie
I had no idea just how alone I would be after what I consider was a catastrophic night for the Oscars. Woefully underestimated the mega-stanning for Parasite. I thought 1917 had this in the bag, both director and picture. Yeah, Parasite would get original screenplay and foreign film and that was that. To me, this choice is a trashing of 91 years of tradition. And that the Academy sent a message that English-language filmmaking was inferior this past year. And that’s something I cannot abide.
I haven’t even gotten into the other pet peeve of last night; the completion of the backlash against Marvel and Disney by the entire industry. As much as The Force Awakens’ VFX was superior IMO to Ex Machina, Endgame similarly lorded it over every other movie in the category. Including 1917. And Into the Unknown losing to Elton John and they didn’t nominate his best song last year, which was Never Too Late from The Lion King.
Not a one of you, if you look in your heart, can deny that last year, and I suspect continuing today, there’s a massive resentment of the success of two studios which the entire industry believe are the point companies for Satan. But if you’re gonna go the backlash route, then inevitably great films are going to be jobbed for the mere sin of being a Marvel Studios or a Walt Disney Animation Studios movie. Frozen II exceeded its popularity among moviegoers here and worldwide. And I think they, more than Endgame, were singled out. The industry wanted to make an example of F II, to punish it for its popularity. That’s why the surest thing of the Oscars lost out to cannon fodder like Missing Link and specifically, Klaus.
The best thing about this train wreck of a season is that it’s now over. But the negative ramifications will reverberate for years to come. And ABC is stuck with this awards dinosaur of a broadcast until 2028.
The first paragraph doesn’t hold up, bc it’s not like the voters know the full 91 years of the history of the academy in their heads.
On your pet peeve: Best VFX honestly was Lion King. Endgame’s VFX were all explosions, particles, lighting. Having fictional creatures walk, look real, with the hair, eyes, as well as realistic looking jungle, with grass, every element being affected by the sun,… is way harder and more impressive. Endgame looked cool, but never realistic. Just like I thought the Planet of the Apes trilogy should’ve won the Oscar three times but didn’t.
You consider this non English language win an injustice, I see it more that 91 times in a row an English language has won as an injustice. There’s almost 7 billion people on the planet, and English isn’t even the top most native spoken language. Honestly, what are the odds that 91 times in a row, out of all languages, each time the best film is in the same language? Those odds are worse than winning the powerball.
And on your animation concern, if it really was about merit, a Japanese movie would win this almost every time. They specialize in animation, their entire culture, from childhood until death, centers around manga and anime. It’s what they do best. I think that Pixar, being part of Disney, being the default choice in this category is a disgrace.
91 years of English language films winning the Best Pic Oscar aren’t an “injustice.” AMPAS is an American institution, not a world institution, founded originally with the intent to promote Hollywood films. So consider the source: coming from the Academy, 91 years of English language winners is understandable, if not always the correct choice (e.g., La Strada, which won the 1st offical Foreign Language Film Oscar in 1957, could easily be said to be a far better film than that year’s winner, AROUND THE WORLD IN 80 DAYS. Likewise, THE BICYCLE THIEF’s honorary win in 1950 for foreign language film should have vaulted it past that year’s Best Pic winner, ALL THE KING’S MEN. I also prefer THE 400 BLOWS to BEN-HUR, and CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON to GLADIATOR). That said, IMO, probably more than half of Oscar’s Best Picture winners would not honestly stack up against the best film made in another language of those years. BTW, do you have something against English as a language?
No, it’s just stats. I speak three languages, and English is just one of them. Not more, not less.
You’re basically agreeing with me that there’s no correlation between quality and language. I was just reacting to this guy who’s mad that after 91 times of picking from the same pool, there’s a win from somewhere else.
Need a tissue?
I fully explained my position. You didn’t respond to it with opposing questions and opinions.
But when others do respond with opposing questions and opinons, you generally refuse to engage them.
You’re just whining.
You are such a weirdo. Oh who will think of the poor wildly successful corporations!
Also FROZEN II is deeply awful. Maybe movies aren’t your speed.
Can you explain why the Academy saying that a foreign language film was better than all English language films this year is “something you cannot abide”?
Can you explain why the Academy saying that a foreign language film was better than all English language films this year is “something you cannot abide”?
Because it already won international film. And for the prior 63 years of the second most prestigious international film award next to the Palm d’Or, that was *enough*.
So what? Why does that matter? Why is it so horrifying that they did something they’d never done before?
Because BP should go to the best English language picture of the year and the international film award must to the best foreign language film. I don’t know how clearer I can be than that.
Why? Why not just have Best Picture be the best picture?
You still haven’t explained why, or why it’s a big deal.
Why call it “best picture” if you’re only including English language pictures?
The English-language filmmaking that people chose to praise was inferior to the best non-English language films of the year. That’s just how it goes sometimes (or actually every year). Perhaps for once Hollywood studios will listen
Nah, 1917 was the best film of the year.
Parasite had all the passion though. I’m not anywhere near as upset as FeelingBlue is because I rarely have my favorite win though. I don’t think my #1 of the year has actually won BP since The Hurt Locker. So it goes.
Nah, It wasn’t the best, at least for many people. A very good film, no doubt, but not the best of the year.
I liked 1917, but do follow its criticism that the only message you really get from it, is that war is hell. Which is something we probably already knew.
I’ve never understood why a film has to have a “message.” I rarely watch films looking for messages. If I glean one out of it, great! When i was in film school, half the themes and messages i thought professors were making up anyway. I had a instructor claim Jaws was about Vietnam.
Hurt Locker was awful. Inglorious bastards was robbed.
I detested Inglorious Basterds. Well, that is probably too strong. I enjoyed the first half or so, but hated the second. A problem I often have with Tarantino.
I love IB but I agree that first half was stronger and the opening with Landa and the french father is an all-timer of suspense.
Nope.
yope
What in the hell is this unhappy horseshit?
Wow. I don’t even know where to begin.
When a Disney animation film you like doesn’t win, it’s only because of a backlash against the biggest movie studio in the world and a hate-job/hit-job to you.
When an English speaking film doesn’t win Best Picture, it’s only because of a backlash against… the English language (?) and a hate-job/hit-job to you. Thank you for standing up for the English language by the way, always in danger of being completely usurped and rendered extinct by… the Korean language I suppose.
When a Marvel (also Disney, see a trend here?) blockbuster doesn’t win, it’s only because of a backlash against … maddening CGI films made for US$400M and a hate-job/hit-job to you. Why don’t Disney just give out its own awards already and stop participating in this nightmare of a train wreck of a dinosaur of a satanic and resentful award show that hates Americans and English films and studio films and all things Disney and Marvel and more Disney and Marvel, never mind the number of Oscars the mouse house already has? A year when Disney doesn’t win jack is a year destined to bring catastrophe to filmdom.
It’s one thing to hate on a film you dislike, quite another to dish out conspiracy theories whenever things don’t go your way. Remind me of somebody in the White House.
My guess is this result is going to stand up as one of the most deserving in recent Oscar history. Nevertheless Its a rather hilarious and entertaining post you just wrote. Very Jojo-Rabbit-esque.
When Obama became POTUS, would you describe that as ‘trashing 220 years of tradition’?
And if you seriously had no idea how alone you are in your views, pay more attention.
Stop being so vile. It’s tiresome. For everyone. Parasite. Fleabag. Sucks to be you.
“To see a year of such great films coming out of the major studios and none of them could win Best Picture – I’m not sure what message that sends, or where it leaves them, or where it leads.”
Well, the filmmakers behind the studio nominees, with the notable exception of Mendes, all seemed delighted by the Parasite wins, Gerwig was seen clapping like a crazy person when the cast and crew walked down the aisle to the stage and seemed more elated than if her own film had won.
Mendes had every right to be pissed off.
Nah – he already has one for American Beauty. The direction of Spike Jonze on BJM and M. Night’s The 6th Sense were better directed films had Mendes not surfed the zeitgeist of American Beauty in. Bong Joon Ho’s Parasite stands up. Had Mendes not cleaned house on his directorial debut, he might have won last night.
That bit much more do fairness parasite stunned but deep down he welcome it as long established Hollywood contributor .he almost up there with Spielberg and Cameron’s of our time .And Jackson’s too. He need win and he will win best director and pic in future only worry as always is he get win for film that less than the sum of its parts and less than great achievement of 1917.
Meanwhile Mendes should be happy academy expanding we all are should be I return in few days after time to reflect on this momentous ‘floodgates open ‘moment most significant long overdue since ‘ hurtlocker ‘ long last heralded Oscar embrace of women as producers and directors getting Oscar wins that huge tribute there to parasite but still lot convincing before I accept it amongst greats in cinema.
But Mendes prob after few wines understandably his pony of view after headache he may have he ought be and indeed is proud Hollywood expanded horizons and Bong won but still total sweep? Need more time process we all do
And you have every right to comment here. Doesn’t mean that this right isn’t also a privilege, and it doesn’t mean that it’s always wise to put online whatever comes into your head.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ed09a69564ba91d45bff56927fd5bc4ffab8b2afeb5ee5ca3409e844ca24f164.jpg
The ratings issue? People tune in to be entertained, to watch a show about the movies and movie stars and instead they get told in the opening number that the show they will be watching is too white. It’s so crass.
Issues such as diversity and inclusion are important no doubt. It’s just that people don’t tune into the Oscars for that. Where is the movie magic? And wait till next years ratings – how many people who saw this year’s show will be willing to come back next year?
It means that the history that did get made – a foreign language picture finally wins best picture! – will not enter public consciousness, because so few outside the bubble saw it making history and talked about it doing so. And therefore fewer will be exposed to that and other wonderful movies. And that is very sad.
Agree completely. You’d think people would watch for Joaquin to win. But it didn’t help that all the precursors had the same downright pat acting winners (with even Joaquin getting more scripted by the end). At least Parasite cannot be blamed for the low ratings since it wasn’t expected to beat 1917 really.
Agreed. This is not a case of Parasite causing low ratings. It’s a case of viewer attrition in an era where people are already watching less tv. The Oscars need to take a long hard look at themselves and figure out why people would want to tune in. Otherwise this highway to irrelevance is just going to speed up…
Just to make my motives clear, I say this as someone who got exposed to a great many movies thanks to the Oscars. Films like Leaving Las Vegas, Fargo, All About My Mother, Brokeback Mountain to name a few. Movies I would never have seen had it not been for their Oscar notices.
Also anyone who did tune in was surely turned off by the opening jokes. What Rebel Wilson said at BAFTA was funny. What Ricky Gervais says at the Globes is sometimes needlessly savage, sometimes tame, but always directed to the nominees in the audience. Yet last night to not have a host but instead a revolving door of presenters talking to US the viewers at home like we were responsible for the white nominees—it was obnoxious and boring.
So much for the conspiracy theory that Scarlett Johansson was going to pull an upset. Congratulations to Academy Award winning actress Laura Dern.
I teared up. She has two parents who have been under-awarded by Hollywood and it’s wonderful they’re still alive to see her win it
Largely advanced by bored Gold Derby editors.
Why was that theory around? There was never a reason for her to upset. If there was a narrative around being overdue, or her last film, or going through a physical transformation or something I would’ve understood. But there was nothing like that.
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscars-2020-analysis-making-sense-historic-parasite-win-1278344
Check this out for all parasite fans and fans however reluctant we may be for various reasons of Hollywood and academy rationale behind it matches some what Sasha said adds some welcome additional relevant things too. Thoughts?
To clarify I talk context before rushing declare parasite greatest ever not dismissing it significance or that it earned it I just question all major filmmaking prizes going one film’s way in most competitive year and this be debated in near term and medium term make no mistake about that. Isn’t that why we here?
Debate successes and failures of academy in all our eyes ? Depending who we Are what we believe ?
it is going to be interesting the climbing of b.o. of both Parasite and Jojo Rabbit, next weekend.
Parasite is over 35 million domestic and Jojo barely over 30. The both may go up to 50? Parasite is the big winner, but a lot of attention may be raised by Taika’s win in Adapted (people in doubt, will probably now check it out, and it is not short of star power)
So whatever happened to Jojo Rabbit winning Best Picture, Supporting Actress, Film Editing, Costume Design? Congratulations to Oscar winners Parasite, Laura Dern, Ford v Ferrari, Little Women.
Worst case scenario PARASITE will get a shit load of streaming rentals over the next few weeks.
I´m sceptical if the sole screenplay win will give Jojo a huge boost, but Parasite should get an enormous push at the BO.
Joker, Once upon a Time in Hollywood are out on bluray, Marriage Story is in Streaming… Judy I am unsure if it already ended its theatrical run… but Jojo and Parasite are the two big 8 winners that are STILL holding strong in box-office, and people that have been doubting wether to see them or not, now have the Oscar wins as final pat in the back to finally go and see them.
Judy is out on various formats now. I think Parasite will pique much interest after it’s multiple wins.
I vividly recall in 1982 reading that Chariots of Fire and its surprise BP win added enormously to it’s still running box office. I recall a quote from a newspaper that a BP win could add an extra ‘0’ to its tally. I assume back in 82 that would mean a 1 million take would swell to 10 million, and a 10 million to 100million although few art house films would have managed the latter. But such was the pull of an Oscar winner nearly 40 years ago. Not sure about now
Judy was a September theatrical release and released on Blu-ray around Christmas time.
not in Spain
Spain had a different release schedule for Judy? Ah ok, hope you like it when you do get around to seeing it. Renée Zellweger absolutely deserved to win!
still playing in theaters here
About the ceremony itself, it was awful. Too long, too unnecessary montages and songs, and overlong clips of the nominees. I much prefer the short individual clips of each acting nominees than these compilation montages.
The reasons why their audience is collapsing is so obvious. Year after year they don’t learn anything.
True but we see rating nos
I totally disagree about the long clips, I preferred them. Eminem, on the other hand, was a complete time waster. Like I have work in the morning, what are we doing..
We all loved the new way they showcased the acting performance clips.
Do you regret predicting that ScarJo was going to upset with Jojo Rabbit?
If you’re referring to me, I never predicted ScarJo to win. I thought she had a strong chance at an upset over Dern. Of the 4 locked acting winners, I always thought Dern was shakiest with ScarJo on her heels. I love Dern. And I am happy she finally won.
I did too – but I didn’t love much else about the production…
The show needs a host next year. Bring back Billy Crystal.
Or Steve Martin, Ellen, or Chris Rock. Heck, even Hugh Jackman.
I always wonder what it would have been like if George Carlin had hosted the Oscars… Or maybe Tom Walker (a.k.a. Jonathan Pie). That would be very interesting.
Carlin would’ve been great. But then everyone would complain about the show being even MORE political than it already is probably.
I’ll try my hand at explaining the Director shocker (Picture was a toss up so not that shocking):
The Invisible Runner-up
Director Branch doesn’t entirely overlap with Directors Guild so if 2 Directors are very close in votes, they could flip-flop. Take Waititi and Philips. They were #5 and #6 respectively, and flip-flopped for the last spot. DGA went with Waititi, Branch with Philips. Now, with #2, we don’t know who it is or how close because all we see is the winner. Unless, there’s a shock like what happened last night.
Script >Director
To win the Picture, you need the Script win. Once parasite took that, game was on.
Winner vs Star
Mendes and 1917 were winning yet the buzz/talk remained with Bong/Parasite. There was no question which combo was the true star of the season. When in doubt, go with the watercooler talk rather than wins.
Narrative – What Will Make AMPAS Pleased With Themselves?
Parasite had the historical win narrative (first Foreign movie to win Picture, first Korean director to win Director) fueled by prestigeous Palm D’Or and stellar boxoffice both internationally and in America (for foreign language movie – it leap-frogged over stuff like Jojo and Bombshell, for example, which at least on paper appear to be more accessible to Americans). 1917 didn’t have any distinguishable narrative and wasn’t zeitgaisty (all important for the win) though it enjoys stellar boxoffice itself and picked up bucketload of awards. So what would make AMPAS feel good about themselves? making the history, of course. never underestimate that. Narrative is really all about What Will Make AMPAS Self-Satisfied? And white saviors want to be the most pleased with themselves. Boom.
Foreign Memebers Power
last year, something happened at the Emmy’s that gave me hope. Despite relentless media campaign that WTSU had to win, the big sweeper (that continued at GG, PGA and DGA) was Chernobyl. Woke media blamed foreign members for this outrage (suck it, wokesters). Later on, JLo missed the AMPAS nomination and word had it that her movie didn’t play well with foreign AMPAS members at all. Given what a big international hit Parasite is (165M global take, 130M from overseas markets) and that foreign members are credited/blamed (depending what side you are on) for some wins/snubs, it’s possible that foreign contingent came out in support of Bong/Parasite.
Too Many No’s
In short, to many No’s – No Editing, No Acting (SAG snub included) and No Narrative knee capped the frontrunner Director of the weak frontrunner.
1917 did not miss a screenplay nomination.
My bad, will change
Jojo Rabbit wasn’t coming after all.
it wasn’t. I blame Sammy for being MIA last night. Jojo needed sammy magic but Sammy wasn’t coming to AD Oscar chat and Jojo wasn’t coming with wins after Adapted. 🙁
Sammy dropped the ball… 🙂
I applaud your effort, but I don’t know what we can do about this. If in 5 years we have a similar situation, with the DGA, GG BD, BAFTA BD winner against another movie, would you really make that call? I’d still stick with the precursors.
I’ll make the call where actual buzz is next time. parasite and bong had it despite 1917 and Mendes wins so something to think about. that said, rules are meant to be broken and everyone is smart in hindsight. 🙂
I might have made it even this year, had I not been superficial and rushed my stats investigation in that category. The stats are also snub stats (1 movie in 86 years won BD with no acting or editing nominations), not just win stats. I just quickly went with the “very strong win stats tend to trump very strong snub stats” thing without stopping to think that the snub stat in this case was SO strong that it was pretty much an elimination rule…
I think Parasite is a worthy winner. Great film! Loved its originality and uniqueness.
HOWEVER:
1. It was not my favorite of the nominees, JoJo and Little Women had my heart.
2. It was not what I predicted, I fell for the 1917 stat odds.
3. Controversial thought here: As great as this was for inclusion, it does nothing for the mainstream movie going crowd. NO ONE in my friend or family group has heard about it. It has not played at a cinema in Flint MI, that I’m aware of. It just feels like it didn’t do the Academy any favors on the whole popular movie front…not that I care all that much. It just really shows they like what they like and don’t care what the average movie goer wants.
Positive note: maybe this win will make sure it’ll get a wider release, including in Flint MI.
Yes! Here’s to hoping!
On the other hand, they (the Academy) gave the “average movie goers” Best Picture nominations for Joker and Ford v Ferrari – I guess those films wouldn´t have been in the lineup if not for their massive Box Office outcome.
Ha. Good point. I guess my point is more giving the top award to relatively unheard of movie when they went out of their way to make themselves look as if they cared about what the average movie goer wants.
THIS.
Kinda sorta agree with this. Really torn. Happy for the moment. Happy for the history. Happy for the inclusion. Happy for Bong. Happy for so many reasons. Parasite is a great film. It has done so well with the box office; love that. But something about it all gnaws at me and, I think it’s what you wrote.
1917 was a clear stats underdog, overall. This is not me rewriting history – I’ve argued for that all season, as have others. And it’s not been difficult, either. 🙂 Its list of snub stat problems was truly astonishing, and then it didn’t manage to upset at WGA either, on top of it all…
ALL TIME LOW RATINGS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ratings: Oscars Hit All-Time Low, Down Sharply From First Host-Less Outing
In the latest TV ratings, ABC’s broadcast of the 2020 Oscars averaged 23.6 million total viewers and a 5.3 demo rating (per fast nationals), down 7 and 20 percent from the prelim numbers for last year’s first host-less outing.
Barring any seismic bump in Nielsen finals, this year’s Academy Awards hit new lows in both measures, lagging behind the previous “record holder” — the 2018 Oscars hosted by Jimmy Kimmel.
Last year’s host-less Oscars wound up delivering 29.6 million total viewers and a 7.7 demo rating in Nielsen finals.
And they even brought Billie and Eminem. They need a host next year.
Eminem was a surprise performance so that couldn’t influence the numbers.
well, bringing Eminem is a problem. he’s passe. Don’t even know who Billie is but I can easily see people turning off their TVs or changing channels during the embarrassing Dancing Midsommar opening. It was awful if you know the reference but worse for most people who had no clue what those plastic flowers were for except that they looked cheap and ugly.
Billie Eilish lol. She won like 10 Grammys but apparently the audience couldn’t care less she was there.
because most people don’t watch Oscars for grammy stars. Oscars will never learn.
Billie Eilish was partly there to bring in younger viewers. Adam Sandler took his daughter to see Billie and he loved her. You are a out of touch old man.
I’m so out of touch that ratings dropped and it’s the least watched oscars ever including in the demo. so where are those young people that were supposed to watch? Maybe they would watch if Joker was sweeping Picture and had a shot at winning. But Billie Eilish? Watch Grammy or YT.
It’s over. How long can the irresponsible media keep fanning the flames at this dead barbecue? Soon the Oscars will go below 20 million.
OH and by the by rushing to embrace NETFLIX next year for sake of it achievbements in record nominations well nope that wont help ratings either unless:
1. Netflix wake up to themselves realise they only be runner up after total i think close to 30 nominations, and handful of wins in last 2 years alone but ONLY handful of wins and they will NOT i confidentally predict get any closer UNTIL THEY FUKIN RELEASE FILM IN CINEMAS at least to 40% mnore cinemas for wider release if they in deman.
2. Denying big screen film audience demographic PROOF without question is we see oscars emphatic rejection of streaming beyond being a ‘cointender’ and compared to slew other nominess inc Parasite ‘Marriage Story ‘ and ‘ Irishman’ just lacked the passion and enthusiasm and visionary execution of other contenders..there a REASON the films thast got nominated 10 noms and won something or 2 oscars a piece (better than nothjing as far as netflix and common sense are concerned lies) and yea netflix won 2 oscars but for what exactly? ok one acting win but look at what they lost
I think i caution academy strongly too for that matetr making a habit of following internet crowd- it was not a win driven by internet crowd that would be unfair on PArasite triumph cos it did clearly appeal to broad section of AMPAS and academy membership itself as genuine visionary piece of filmmaking not even i can deny this…so no it not mainly due to internet noise.
But academy have clearly underestimated the other main subplot explanation for main ratings? is having 2/9 nominees garnering ludicrous amount of nominees for untested source for ‘film’ so called to be oscar contender that only been in system 2 years and i say again oscart should ONLY go for bnig screen movies and at LEAST while disappointed i was i couldn’t see parasite on big screen it was open globally on big screen and intended as big screeen experience.
Soul searching here for academy clearly overstating the role of internet in driving some of nominations Parasite NOT inlcuded as much here as ‘Marriage story’ and uninspiring ‘Irishman’
But i not against all streaming and any streaming service that wished to competefor best picture need to open on big screen then this will justify in those demographic who are tuning out in alarming rate has to be said returning to fold until netflix anmd other aspiring future streaming services get their heads out of their asses but atm mainly netflix sured let them contend but dont be so generous with nuimber of nominations and perhaps snub some for best pic as way to indicate netflix they need to embrace rather than stall the legions and silent mahjoriy still those who value big screen experience.
Let us hope Netflix will read tea leaves and academy think twice before giving so many noms in only 2 years to streaming movies- consider big screen demographic netflix then you may be taken seriously as genuine threat and future deserved winner best picture.
Ratings unfortunately for academy there are problems they have to face. to lose support of traditional networks and maybe? pay TV rely entirely on streaming dont underestimate baby boomers and their following generation who take up mantle while with modern outlook they too stillthankfully value seeing movies on big screen. and in wake of very potent strong crackdown on illegal piracy and distribution by big studios they will invest more than ever in big screen movies that and in australia big screen tickey prices have come down a bit buit better than masive increases that bring in crowd.
No oscars overdependence on internet crowd has been exposed as a fallacy relfected in it ratings sorry to say
“dead barbecue”
this is genius!
It not about the host though presentation helps i guess it about the ingrained scepticism of Hollywood and growing distrust lead to disilussionment of traditional fan base that once respected the oscars and their choices- once again the academy is making best pic choices to fulfill it own needs rather than due balanced consideration of true best picture winners that balance critical acclaim, mass appeal and numerous unforgettable moment and characters that within for Hollywood film itself challenge Hollywood own orthodoxy- this is PROOF then that Academy need to stop if anything their ‘i owe u’s for sake their own reputation self preservation and before people say ‘this is the way cos online streaming’ i put to you this of proportion of audience drop relative to year before and LOWEST EVER- how can anyone POSSIBLY prove that those audiences drop off majority of them go onto live streaming to watch it?
significance for academy what drove PARASITE win as brilliant as it was and i get it on DVD yes! first time i get DVD anmd finally watch it in better quality first time i proud to see i get a foreign language film well overdue to first one worth watching – too bad film was not released anywhere near me in cinemas i would loved to seen on big screen what big fuss was about. I ‘see’ now but want to film like that on maximum quality on my ‘big’ err…52′ screen lol well that small compared to what around on average today ey? my bro got a 78″ free standing TV wow! how times changed:)
But yes when Academy start to make filmmaking public feel some of best critically acclaimed of THEIR films the film community backs in globally with their wallets AND domestically THAT when the worm and ratings with turn..it NOT cos of streaming..cos their simply cant be any proof of such huge drop off flockingh to online.
This takes nothing away from Parasite’s sheer brilliance and landmark achievement in unals of Hollywood histroy to be sure these issues reflect poorly on academy based on their history of snubs making too many people go offiside clearly this is NOT Parasite’s doing or anyhting to do with it.
Academy next year not only ideally shouold have a host moreover the film that i described above with following criteria:
1. wins PGA and WGA or DGA and WGA or SAG and PGA/DGA shouold win best picture
2. it HAS TO be high quality big- moderate HOLLYWOOD studio event film exceeds expectations or at LEAST matches them at critical level and commerical level.
3. and a film that goes beyond waay beyond and reflects cross section of ALL demographics that have declined.
Oh and if anyone says ‘ i back in any of marvel or dc movies’ well no i explained before in past posts i say ‘go jump in coldest lake on the planet’ or just ‘go jump’ cos clearly you not read my other posts
You do know that if 1917 had won there would have been similar ratings. Parasite won towards the ending and until Director people really thought 1917 is taking it.
Yes.. and no to that
I agree that 1917 winning would have close to zero effect on making ratings better.
people dont understand here the principle of ingrained in built scepticism it not that big a word is it? lol as in- the legacy that past films most nominated have left that havent won best pic combined with fact the foundation generations of audience viewers that witnessed historic wins by films that achieved nominations of minimum 7 oscars and won big from the 70’s and 80’s and their generations and many of those younger generations today are prime audience as nielsen ratings quote academy NEED to justify it long term viability for mainstream or even you could argue pay tv networks., no that where number people are wrong here irrespective of 1917 ‘likeliest ‘ to win inbuilt sceptricism of those demographic i described would take time for academy to repair trust with them and they should thjey really should..it would be a travesty in arts culture global society to see oscar go to even deeper crisis of obscurity audience have spoken they have long memories- but 1917 win would helped following year THAT the difference something think about
I think the College Football Championship got higher figures 25.6 million than this year’s Oscars. Yikes.
I really don’t think 1917 or Joker winning BP would have made a big difference anyways. Linear TV is dying and more people are watching on their mobile devices. So I guess a collective shrug?
Collective shrug though, this is what really kills the awards IMO:
Winner Actress (WA): Sniff…
people: Awww, she’s going to pay the tribute to her late boyfriend who won the oscars posthumously
WA: sniff. so…I wouldn’t be holding this award today without the support from…
people: and here we go…
WA:… Pro Choice
people turn off their TVs
political diatribe is killing the awards on top of their being boring self-congratulating dinosaur that hasn’t moved with times. I knew this shit was a bust the moment Portamn showed up in that ridiculous cape with embroidered names of snubbed female directors because that’s the kind of juvenile stunt that only entitled self-absorbed rich people think is the height of activism and cool af but everyone else finds maximum cringe.
You’re acting like actors and the Oscars only started being political a few years ago. This isn’t a new development.
it isn’t but now it completely dominates awards shows and numbers are dwindling in part because people don’t like it. Rickie Gervais was right. It’s fake. And guess what? people agree and ratings keep going down cause awards shows double down on that fakeness.
Ratings are down for the Oscars because ratings are down for almost everything on TV. The Grammys also had all-time low ratings this year. Besides sports, people just don’t watch TV as much, not to mention that this is just one week after the biggest TV event of the year, the Super Bowl.
What would ratings be if we counted illegal streams? We may never know.
if people complain that politics annoy them then better believe them. they don’t help ratings for sure.
Very glad – maybe they bring back the host after this!
I was glad The Irishman got what it deserved which was nothing . The stunt didn’t seem! to work for 1917 and Netflix had a bad night and once again the Academy chose a mo vie no one saw . As for Parasite a good but not great !movie won with it’s stupid Monty Python meets Sam Peckinpah Salad Days ripoff ending . Once Upon a Time in Hollywood will stand the test of time which in the end is what counts most .
your opinion is as bad as your writing
I think the Irishman was the best film of the year. I love Parasite.
Ok a little off topic- but i actually think in context of deserved i say equal favorite- based on no of nominations and what they were nominated for and overall outstanding unforgettable quality for both films goal of 1917 and Joker albeit very contrasting styles which nevertheless encapsulates within the big studio system within Hollywood the sheer diverse magnitude of stories and sources of material that is all more reason this be ranked as one of most competitive contests ever, reinforced by the historic- even before Parasite’s historic deserved win- in context of it meaning to the academy i still think more so than it being ranked as one of the greatest films to win the Oscar- it HUGE CALL TO MAKE and waaayy too soon to declare that.
But for academy to break with tradition and have 4 films achieving double digit figures truly is credit to the Academy there- to elevate films that had critical and public acclaim and blockbuster event status is credit to them.
The undermining of Ford vs. Ferrari is an utter disgrace and i go in more detail however ltr…as well the total snub for ‘knives out’, (but if sequel is at LEAST 3/4 as good could be compensation Oscar maybe? well deserved if it nearly measures up in it own right- correction another story with the pizzazz and appeal as first contemporary – authentic original inventive mystery thriller- inspired film-making that got far less than it deserved in nominations.
On Ford vs. Ferrari- well given it only got a measly 4 nominations- it emerged on ratio- of total nominations as the second biggest winner- winning 2/4 which inc best pic nom. But oh, how it deserved so much more love by the academy in reflection when nominations announced. I explain in more detail why happily in another post. But there a good reason WHY i bashing out brief points for now.
Joker for comic book movie to lead nomination field against such high quality nominees and given it part adapted but wholly game changing dark drama for a supposed ‘comic book’ movie has changed the game for the inclusiveness of comic book genres not just get nominated- but to LEAD the field and be a twice as big time player as legacy left and credit to Black Panther last year.
It NOT forgone conclusion either as dust settles many be far from convinced issue is NOT Parasite winning best picture but Oscars tendency to so quickly abandon their traditions and my issue is structure or lack of and growing mismatch between guilds – which always been part of lifeblood of academy and decisions academy make going against the guilds- trusty me when i say that not a sustainable path for academy to go on year in year out once every 5 years and twice a decade, sure..but more than that i think you find grievances within academy will build in established order- let us hope academy get some sense of balance- i DO expect whatever film wins next year ought to be big studio event film made out of Hollywood- after Roma got 9 nominations- and filmmaker won best director- after Del Toro won and as producer and director for Shape of Water year before that, and after Cuaron won one and Almodovar won 2 in this decade alone – let me know if i get mixed up and combined with fact all which is great for diversity long overdue as i said before- dont underestimate the reverse- activist effect i call- i dont want lot people dont want Hollywood to fall for trap of blindsiding their own stonewalling them i dont think it happen-= but there a risk as academy have demonstrated with the pref . ballot that they go overboard in one direction and build a legacy of future snubs of films that would deserve to be amongst favourites as contenders..
Academy know their own history and they MUST consider balance- no of course i be caught dead before i oppose future foreign films winning best picture and foreign language film just academy dont go too deep other way- i hope and i can’;t emphasize enough here within 7 year countdown from next year we at 93rd Oscar as they count down to there centenary occasion that they re-calibrate and consider that: you know what? we need to compensate and end cycle of compensating for our discrimination we held against other genre that hardly won and overdue to win.
The best thing i could hope for in interest of academy getting balance right to thrive globally but NOT neglect itself locally is simply- end the i owe u’s by time centenary comes and dont favour one genre or one type of film by ethnicity over others don’t ignore your own playgroiund or those within could burn parts of it down as they say,
Oscar know the stakes…so i got no idea what predict next year for best picture but 2 things i will predict in general-
1. a moderate- big budget film that exceed expectations by both critics and audiences or alternatively driven by audience sentiment home grown in Hollywood by one of the big studios will win best picture- and for record NO i not talking about ‘black widow’ (well you never know anything goes nowadays yea? MAYBE wonder woman 1984? after all some feel should got best pic nom not just for gender breakthrough for specific genre sake either.
2. by the academy’s centenary let us hope their ‘i owe u’s ‘ are done and genre discrimination unfounded and unforgivable really against- science- fiction and at very least science- fact based films, horror genre- though have to be really truly unforgettable and flawless and not just shock and excess gore- and not just cruel torturous and sadistic- (saw trailer for ‘fantasy island’ i have to say some ideas should not see light of day but dark side of that island is really beyond the pale and truth be told i seriously question need in past for movies like ‘saw, IV, V’….and particularly Hostel. But in addtion other genres? espionage , action adventure, comedy as in pure comedy not art-house- hybrid like parasite and too many others that won in 2000 that do variations or imitations not as effectively as what parasite does though, more fantasy- but need to be grounded in some historic reference at least half half like lotr which i admit raised bar indelibly high immeasurably so- and of course war movies- always getting nominated hardly ever winning- before ‘Hurt Locker’ i confess i said not late 80’s when platoon won, but perhaps there was in the 90’s but i quite sure nowhere near as prominent as platoon win in the 80’s .
Then we come to 1917. I can see it redefined the storytelling of war genre- story was told through striking imagery and i deeply appreciate despite slew of graphic ultra-violent war movies Mende’s shift to most lyrical, poetic, evolutionary style war film and telling story not through shock but bringing and KNOWING when to bring a blend of traditional and modern in film making as most seamless fusion- i say it since Saving Private Ryan. 1917 will change the way war stories are told in film. And it WILL stand the test of time- i in NO DOUBT yet again oscar will have to confront the reality that the war genre has been considerably undervalued for too long as best picture winner- and certain war films deserved to be nominated more like Black Hawk Down than they did for instance there a few i cant remember atm…
1917 will be therefore to the future of filmmaking what Saving Private Ryan was for its time. and yet extraordinary thing whether Mendes or critics acknowledge it or not the visceral cinematic realism as experience even if not so graphic in 1917 had the grit and intensity of SPR minus justified realistic brutal shocking truthful violence during a war.
Yet 1917 proved restraint where it needed to with visuals with modern way and traditional way of film making was what was prominent. I do feel 1917 should not have won visual effects and Avengers Endgame clearly deserved to win without question. However given it became more clear as ceremony wore on, it clear to me that it was 1917 compensation prize not winning best picture but restraint and control is Mendes hallmark. I still think at a cinematic level knowing when to loosen restraint particularly in combat scenes that would have elevated that film 1917 to amongst greatest of all time it significance elevates its prominence and deservedly so…but still not in hallmark of truly greats overall..But i admit i need see it again- to assess this once and finally for all for my own sake.
There no doubt George McKay was snubbed and frankly as ensemble Colin Firth at the start Benedict Cumberbatch and some other well renowned names may been cameos but honestly no SAG ensemble or 2 sag noms for lead 2 actors whom were put through ringer? see this where academy and guilds logic is inconsistent and overall as in other years leaves a lot of it own plot holes of it own making to desired.
By the centenary year that be here before we know it, question has to be asked will the Academy start filling their own ‘PLOT HOLES’ To heal wounds to its reputation over past say 50 years of other outstanding forms of discrimination in other ways? i not talking race or color or gender or foreigners all welcome all part of Hollywood evolution and contribution that great but those OTHER things i refer to. and will this lay groundwork for academy to start their 2nd century in existence by not repeating countless mistakes, unjust snubs of voluiime they have in this century that almost past?
MY early call they can start get on track IF IT BIG IF but not impossible Tom Hanks- who deserves to be only male actor in modern times to win 3 acting oscars dons the military wear in the i think l;landmark epic ‘grey hounds’ but let see what it up against. let see what the futrure holds
I just don’t see the floodgates opening for foreign movies to get nominated, let alone win. It took a special movie that connected with American audiences due to multiple factors including the dark comedy aspects, the satire, the twist, the acting, etc. Roma was too typical of an American Oscar-ry type of movie, but Parasite was different enough to stand out from the crowd. Finally, Boon Joon Ho is pretty charismatic and I felt his presence in the awards season was a huge factor as well. Basically, what I’m saying is this was lightning in a bottle and will be difficult to replicate.
I agree, the stars aligned for this one. We shouldn’t expect this to regularly happen in the future.
Between 1960 and 1979, SIXTEEN foreign language directors landed in Best Director. If anything, the Academy was more receptive to foreign films back in its heyday than the supposed freewheeling “globalist” 21st Century.
I’ve been looking at past nominees/winners and thought the same thing.
this. it took a special movie that connected as it did. people may think that one-two punch of BP/Joker noms opened the floodgates for superhero movies but nope. it happened these 2 very different movies resonated but the rest of them won’t be considered until another special one comes along.
agree completely but opprtunity will present itself to someone in future of international background to compete for best picture IF the film is good enough bar has been raised high courtesy of Parasite indeed big time so for that reason moreover it be hard come close to match that for an international film of tas much appeal as this has had which is great but will it happen often? opportunity academy grants does not always mean it happen often i think in upcoming decade provided film is of 3/4 of standard of parasite to contend best pic and international feature is fair enough once every few years dont you think? but few years depends entirely on quality and standard to of studio movies…parasite you could argue beat films for the very odd ridiculous odd number of 9 best pic slots to substitute other birlliant films like ‘rocketman’, ‘knives out’, and ‘judy’ to name a few
Lots of very wrong speculation in my Oscar watching past but probably framing this one lol
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/163dd4da84b4a25345f7a0ba21508ae8de23338c2c491455a50c8978a002cae4.png
A nice touch was having Eminem come on (surprise) and sing / rap his song. This should be every year. I would like the “It’s hard out here for a pimp” crew to appear next year….YES! 🙂 But Eminem at 50 needs to stop wearing the droopy pants. So juvenile.
And everybody knew the words to his song! How sweet.
Can anybody Tell me why Phoenix in his oscar acceptance speech told he was a bad person who made a Lot of terribile things ? (Ok theese are not the exact words but he did say something like that). What has he done in the past?
I could swear that he had his fair share of substance abuse issues but obviously not to the clip his brother did. And he had a BAD reputation for being difficult on set.
starred in M Night Shyalaman movies.
He’s at-least-slightly tainted by association with I’M STILL HERE and its director’s legal situation.
So happy that Parasite made the history and not Roma.
My grab bag list of takeaways
1. Yeah, the PGA/DGA stat got busted big time. But maybe THOSE guild wins for 1917 weren’t that decisive. For all we know it was less than ten votes in both cases (PGA famously had the 12 Years/Gravity tie a few years ago). The SAG thing CLEARLY was a sign.
2. When Bong made the comment at the Globes about the “1 inch barrier known as subtitles”, that was the moment he cracked the puzzle that Cuaron/Roma couldn’t last year. That was a masterful campaign all around (especially getting him on the Kimmel/Colbert/Fallon loop weeks before nomination ballots were in the mail). Their winning attitude chased with such shocked humility was quite refreshing in an era of rather sleazy hit job campaigning.
3. I think Irishman was dead out of the water the instant Marty said what he said about Disney. Marty by the way is now the first director to have TWO double digit nominee films get skunked. Much like Silence, I think Irishman’s reputation will improve in the coming years.
4. Netflix sure spent a lot of money to land a supporting acting trophy and not much else. I strongly suspect that they will be pulling back BIG TIME from prestige projects, especially since competing streaming services have been brutalizing Netflix’s bottom line poaching their most viewed content like Friends.
5. While I didn’t like OUATIH as much as others, this year should have been a layup. The two biggest movie stars on the planet at the height of their powers, the way overdue auteur, a show business topic. How did it miss so BADLY in the guilds and last night? Is Tarantino’s schtick still a bridge too far?
6. If Q really wants to mess with people, for his 10th and supposedly “farewell” film, he should pull a Woody Allen/Interiors with a 180 degree turn into Bergman or Tarkovsky. A guy who writes as well has he does ought to be able to do straight drama better than he’s shown.
7. Renee Zellwegger and Hilary Swank have four Oscars. Amy Adams has zero.
8. Ray Romano’s deadpan profanity blast last night was hysterical. Maybe approach HIM for hosting?
Maybe a small factor, but I think there might be some folks who don’t want to see Quentin Tarantino with 3 or 4 Oscars, in a world where Spielberg has 3, Scorsese has 1 and Paul Thomas Anderson is 0-for-8.
“Some”?
Romano would be THE BEST host…
So ecstatic for Parasite! Bong upsetting in Director was one of the greatest things I’ve witnessed at the Oscars. Congrats to everyone who realized there’s more to a race than just stats and stood by this movie despite everything.
the show was the most boring and cringe ever til Director upset. everyone got wide awake after that, ha ha.
Also people should pay more attention to Korean movies: The Man From Nowhere, The Housemaid, Poetry, I Saw The Devil, Train To Busan, The Handmaiden, Burning and much more.
yep, K cinema was happening for a long time and now stars lined up for mainstream (well, American mainstream) acknowledgment.
Add to that list Mother; The Host; On the Beach at Night Alone; Secret Sunshine; the “vengeance” trilogy; 3-Iron . . . So many more too. By the way, the 1960 Housemaid (haven’t seen the 2010 one) would make a good double feature with Parasite–similar kind of situations . . .
Mother was amazing. Bong does deliver the best twists in the cinema.
The Director upset was the shit. The man was clearly in shock, but handled it like a champ. The Scorsese tribute made me shed a tear. Shit, I mean, this particular moment is exacly why I watch the Oscars.
Let´s not forget that the female translator was great, too. And I guess it´s not too bad when you can tell people you meet at dinner parties that you already held three Academy Award winner acceptance speeches!
That guy’s great at speeches, each time he had something interesting to say. And he’s done a lot of them this year.
Parasite was the stats pick.
To be fair, Bong beating Mendes for Best Director was a huge surprise – Parasite winning Best Picture was not.
2018 and 2019 were great years for foreign language films in awards. Roma lost, but it came close to win and had 10 nominations. There was also Cold War, which got Director and Cinematography noms alongside Roma. That year was also the first time Cinematography had 3 foreign language nominees (60%, as Aubrey Plaza would say).
And now in 2019 Parasite becomes the first foreign language film to win Best Picture and also Director. I really hope this is the beginning of a new trend of foreign language nominations and wins.
If anything, the all but assured influx of Korean talent into the Hollywood pool will be as impactful as the emergence of the Three Amigos fifteen years ago.
Congratulations to all the winners. I got 75% on my ballot. Parasite winning was not a total shock, but Mendes not winning Best Director certainly was. 2019 was a great year for film. See you at the movies!
I must of missed it but what film was the best American film of this year. Looks like the next step is to go like BAFTA. A category for the best American film and a category for the total wrap to include foreign language films.
Midsommar
Jojo Rabbit or 1917
Kudos to all of you who predicted Parasite and didn’t buy into the foreign-language-has-a-separate-category argument nor the illogical 0/91 stat. Glad some people actually took the time to sit down and reason about it clearly.
Ever since Roma, it has bugged me that the main argument has been “because it has never happened that means it never will”. No one would DARE use that argument about, say, a Black Director, but international film was fair game for that?
The worst choice of the evening the Best adapted screen play Jo jo Rabbit. The Irishmen or little women should have won.
I was sick of the academy giving the DGA winner the directing oscar when the DGA makes a lousy choice.
Last year Roma lost best picture because it was a Netflix movie. The same reason the Irishman got shout out and Marriage story only won1 Oscar
no, Roma lost because it was self-idulgent, boring vanity claptrap and no amount of long takes in B&W couldn’t hide the fact it was a fuckin chore.
Boring movie. Slow pan-itis.
slow pan-itis is a perfect description.
Jojo Rabbit and The Irishmen both were way wittier than Little Women, which was also humorless.
LW was a filler that everyone knew was a filler and didn’t want to pretend that it wasn’t for once.
Roma lost because it was a difficult, black and white slow art film. The academy is not film twitter
In one of the rare times it has happened, the best movie won best picture. Wish the ceremony wasn’t so dull though and wish Sid Haig was in the montage. However, Parasite and Pitts speech made the night for me. I also loved Joaquin mentioning his brotherr
Hey, does anyone knowledgable about the Oscars which is like 100% of you want to be a guest on my podcast/youtube channel? later today?
itll take 15 min of your time max and it’ll be great discussion
let me know here!
Happy to talk Oscars, if you’re serious. Know all Best Pic winners by year, by heart, and have actually seen all but a handful.
i do have a youtube channel.
you’d do like a fb chat or skype.
my email is okonh0wp at gmail dot com
the youtube channel is also okonh0wp
I didn’t see Last Emperor but wasn’t that foreign language?
Also the creatives behind the artist were French.
I haven’t seen it in ages, but it was about 50/50 from what I remember.
Kinda like Dances with Wolves.
Not quite.
Last Emperor was in English, produced by Brits. Not even sure there was any dialogue in Mandarin.
Al Robinson post reminded me of something. Another decade ends. The most successful BP winner of the decade? That’s a wow! Or better. A woof woof. The Artist. Some personalities took awards season by storm in the past decade. But the ultimate champion is a late one from the canine world. Uggie, this decade belongs to you.
What do you guys think about next Mike Mills movie starring J.Phoenix? Are you hyped for that movie? I enjoyed 20th century women very much. And in general wich movies do you wait more for this 2020 (and so 2021 oscars) ?
I am ecstatic with this winning the two biggies. It’s a great movie and it’s also nice to see a foreign film win Best Picture. Especially one as deserving as this. So many stats busted last night and that’s always a good thing. The best Best Picture winner in a while.
I haven’t been this happy with a BP win since No Coutry for Old Men.
So FEW stats were busted, in fact. The trivia item of the foreign language film winner was busted, which isn’t a stat. The acting nomination stat fell only so that other, stronger stats wouldn’t (which would have been inevitable had anything other than Parasite won). What other stats were busted for BP? None. For BD, two strong stats butted heads and, honestly, in hindsight, the stronger one (85/86 directing winners having either editing or acting nominations or both) kinda’ prevailed. I was dumb to not consider the situation in that category more carefully. As for the other categories, the stats pick prevailed pretty much everywhere; if not, the co-favorite. No big upsets, if any at all.
The best movie of the year won best picture. Couldn’t be happier.
Hopefully this will continue in future years so that films like Roma and Amour can win best picture as well.
I didn’t watch the Oscars, I’m watching YT tapes, but I can’t believe what the papers are writing about Phoenix. Did he really go off the rails talking about cow’s milk? And did Renee really state famous women, the Williams sisters and Selena? I’ve got to watch those tapes.
Guðnadóttir felt her words much more deeply than Renée Zellweger
(“Judy”), who, as she listed off famous women throughout history —
“Venus, Serena and Selena!” — sounded like she was reciting the lyrics
to “We Didn’t Start the Fire.”
I’ve said this before. These actors are either stoned when they get to the stage to accept an award or clueless about what they’re supposed to say. It’s an award, just accept it graciously. Don’t stumble over your words. Just take the damn thing 🙂
Joaquin’s speech was one of my favorite moments of the night. I thought it was heartfelt and important, and it all circled back to his brother. Come to the rescue of injustice with love in your heart, and a more peaceful world will follow. Not a bad message to be sending out in 2020.
He didn’t go “off the rails”, he just expressed his own beliefs about animal rights.
I have to see the tape, but like I wrote, just accept the award, thank your peeps and move on.
When you win an Oscar you can do the speech however you like.
It wasn’t a popular decision at my Oscar watching party, even though I realize we have o be in the minority right now. I felt the buzz around LA and predicted it to happen and kept telling the other five people in attendance it was winning. Two SAG voters were present, so you’d think they would have seen it coming given it won their Ensemble award. Neither did, and no one really believed me. When Mendes lost nobody there were shocked “Noooo’s” and nobody was happy.
The last twenty minutes or so of the ceremony lost a lot of its charm for us. Well, everyone except me since I won the pool (by a lot…picking 21/24 categories). I mean I was disappointed too, but I had suspected the Parasite win.
“I felt the buzz around LA ”
This. Buzz > Precurson Wins. Movie/Director/Actor wins but buzz keeps getting stronger with someone/something that didn’t win. 1917/Mendes were winning left and right yet everyone was talking about Bong/Parasite. That’s very important, IMO. when it doubt, go with buzz over wins and stats.
When it comes to Oscar prognosticating, keep in mind that the majority of Academy members are actors, so a good bellwether – tho not surefire (witness The Help & Hidden Figures) – are the SAG Awards. 1917 wasn’t up for any SAG Awards, so no screeners went to union members; that hampered 1917’s chances w/ the largest voting bloc in the Academy at a time in the season when SAG members were already receiving screeners for stuff like Parasite & Once Upon a Time in Hollywood & The Irishman. Timing makes a difference. 1917 hit big w/ HFPA and other guilds cuz it screened for them late, and so was fresh in their minds, having the “shiny object” effect.
SAG is usually not that helpful. The only reason this felt different was that it is by far the most populist group, so when it gave Parasite Ensemble, you knew it had moved beyond “film snob” circles.
That said neither of the SAG voters at the Oscar party I was at last night enjoyed it much. One said it was one of her least favorite films of the year (though she did say “At least it wasn’t The Irishman!”).
The buzz around town from people was largely behind it though, which is what I predicted it in the end.
SAG+WGA is killer, though.
Great sentiments Sasha. Here here! A game changer. Let me count the ways…..
Sasha, you’re a great analyst and want to thank you for a guidance throughout the season and helping me to see Parasite’s outcome. Your lessons like “actors rule”, “a film that voters want to win” and “preferential ballot features” helped me to justify upset not only using statistical data but behavioral. Ironically, you were saying all the right stuff but stick to a safe bet (and a wrong one) on your own. Actually, I was predicting 1917 by myself for the most part of the last month while analysing other categories, but when it came to Best Picture and had almost ended the report I caught myself on an idea that I just find excuses for 1917 to win, while Parasite is an obvious choice – its more grounded, complicated, actors-driven, socially important feature.
In all these preferential ballot years in a competition between technical flicks and personal stories The Academy always stayed in favor of former – Gravity v 12 Years a Slave, The Revenant v Spotlight, La La Land v Moonlight just confirm the rule and 1917 is basically, Gravity in WWI. And for the last 10 years 5 films won BP Oscar through only Screenplay against 5 in 50 years of classical ballot – then I considered other 1917 misses like Globe screenplay and the choice has become clear. Frankly, when Parasite lost editing I though this is the end for the film as just 3 wins was possible, but unlikely for a overall balance. However, the directing category got everything straight.
@disqus_XeR5lOSBTf:disqus
I did a breakdown of the stats for the last 10 Best Picture winners. Here you go Ryan.
The Artist – 5
Birdman – 4
Parasite – 4
The King’s Speech – 4
The Shape of Water – 4
12 Years a Slave – 3
Argo – 3
Green Book – 3
Moonlight – 3
Spotlight – 2
4 won 4
4 won 3
1 won 5
1 won 2
Total = 35 wins
Ave. = 3.5 wins
Best Screenplay = 8 times (3 Adapted, 5 Original)
—
Acting = 5 times
*Actor 4 times (Leading 2 times, Supporting 2 times)
*Actress 1 time (Supporting)
Best Director = 5 times
—
Best Music = 2 times (both times Original Score)
—
Best Cinematography = 1 time
Best Costume Design = 1 time
Best Film Editing = 1 time
Best International Film = 1 time
Best Production Design = 1 time
Incredible just how few below-the-line Oscars have been won by these last 10 BP winners!…
Yeah, it seems like the trend is to give technical awards to other films, some also nominated for Best Picture, but Best Picture itself is mostly based on Acting, Directing, and especially Writing. Pretty interesting!
It always has been based on those three. 🙂 But the new thing is they don’t win as much below the line as they used to (pre-preferential). I guess it’s that thing Sasha has mentioned more than once – the desire to give all 8-9 BP nominees (as opposed to 5, before) something, while still having to give the BP winner at least one or two of the above the line awards to “justify” giving it the big prize. Thus, the consolation prizes they end up giving the “other” BP nominees are the tech awards, for the most part.
Pretty spot on I’d say.
It’s a little bit incorrect to include International Feature in stats for Parasite as here we are are talking about “reach” of voting branches, but International Feature is basically the same as Best Picture, so its double counting. Better to use 3.
So, looking only to the numbers, the great winners of the decade were “Gravity” (7) and “Mad Max” (6), am I right?
Thank you, Al !
What a lot of work and research. I really appreciate your effort. Valuable info here and lots of interesting trends.
Great to see you back here on the boards on the Big Night! I’ve missed seeing you on that other place with The Name We Shall Not Mention. I’m taking a long break from there too.
You’re welcome Ryan! I enjoyed putting those stats together, and I might dig deeper into other stats relating to this. Yeah, it was fun to be back in the discussion mix on Sunday night. I miss you guys, and I haven’t been around as much as I’d like. I had to jump off Twitter as well, partly because I felt like it was getting harder and harder to share my opinions on films since so many people have gotten more and more argumentative and hive minded.
It seems weird that only one out of the last ten Best Picture winners has also won Editing – I mean, considering how essential the editing is in the making of a film.
Screenplay has become the single biggest indicator of BP… interesting.
Crazy. It used to be that BP winners with fewer than 4 total wins were very rare. Now 3.5 is the average.
Uggie remains the most successful awards personality in a long time.
A modern masterpiece and history made. a great year with very diverse films, several of them deserving winners.
We’re lucky to have such a competitive year.
Agree with Sasha that this year subverted many pre-existing notions about these awards.
I am, however, puzzled that some of the same justifications I’ve read for why 1917 would have won Best Picture are now used as the same reasons why it lost. Some people were saying the shortened season left no time for 1917 to generate too much backlash like, say, La La Land did, so it peaked at the right time and had the momentum to go all the way in a shortened season. Now, there is this theory that the shortened season left no time for 1917 to build momentum and that could be one of the reasons it lost. You can’t use the same reasons for 2 opposite outcomes.
I always thought 1917 was on a roll with one industry award after the next and is so widely admired as a technical marvel and a “difficult film to direct” that it couldn’t possibly lose, even though I personally thought it’s somewhat overrated. I switched my best picture prediction one day ago to PARASITE only after I watched the Oscar Expert’s YouTube channel where he had a lengthy explanation as to why he decided to change his prediction to Parasite. It made complete sense to me and is a very interesting watch on hindsight to dissect the results.
I think as fans, we do tend to over-think these things based on pre-existing records or status quo (partly because it’s so fun to do). But records are always meant to be broken. It’s such a tough year because 1917, unlike Green Book, isn’t controversial, is largely well liked as a film, and normally a preferential ballot would work in its favor. However, Parasite is also unlike Roma, in that it is a lot more accessible and also appeared to generate a lot of passion in the film community. So comparing Parasite to Roma was always misleading. Roma did not lose because of the Netflix factor, but because it has the same IRISHMAN problem: it is slow, artsy and easier to admire as a great film than to fall in love with.
I may be wrong, but I simply don’t think that many Oscar voters think too deep into these broader issues about the “message it’s sending” with their votes. Voters didn’t vote for Roma or The Irishman not because they think giving a Netflix film BEST Picture meant the death of good old fashioned cinema. They simply didn’t like them with as much passion.
Similarly I don’t think voting for PARASITE makes them think they’d be giving the F-U to Hollywood studios even if for some reason you think studios “need” the encouragement to make good films. I don’t think voters think that way. If some people think foreign language films are now going to rule Hollywood, they are sadly mistaken. It didn’t do the trick when Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon earned US$250M worldwide. And that was 20 years ago.
Great foreign language films will continue to be made for a global audience like they always have been. This does open doors in a big way for Asian and subtitled films getting distribution in America, and that’s great. But calling this an act that put Hollywood studio films to shame Is pushing it too far. Whatever happens In the future, Parasite is still a great film, well-loved, it deservingly won the Best Picture Oscar in many people’s minds, and I think it will be an enduring classic for many years to come.
Kinda’ proves exactly why stats are the thing to look at when predicting, not theories, when one can make the same argument for both sides with basically nothing having changed except knowing the outcome…
1917’s stats sucked way more than Green Book’s – and Parasite’s were way better than Roma’s.
“I may be wrong, but I simply don’t think that many Oscar voters think too deep into these broader issues about the “message it’s sending” with their votes. Voters didn’t vote for Roma or The Irishman not because they think giving a Netflix film BEST Picture meant the death of good old fashioned cinema. They simply didn’t like them with as much passion.”
I think they do, some of them, to an extent, but I also think said extent is being grossly overestimated by pundits.
I am in such a state of happiness right now! Parasite is a film that will go down in Oscar history as one of the greatest winners ever. Yep, I’m ranking it up there with The Godfather, Casablanca, The Silence of the Lambs, The Deer Hunter, Gone with the Wind, Midnight Cowboy, Lawrence of Arabia, Schindler’s List, All About Eve, Annie Hall, Lord of the Rings: ROTK—- notice all these films defined their genres, and paved the way for other movies of their kind. Whether they were brutal thrillers, emotional biopics, sweeping epics, massive fantasies, quirky sophisticated comedies, X rated character studies, and of course- backstage love fests paying homage to the industry itself. Parasite falls into the realm of not just a foreign film that is the first to win the top prize. But a movie that showcased multiple genres, insightful comical observations on human nature, suspenseful tension and amazing writing. I know I’m probably going over board, but I just love that Parasite won Best Picture! I predicted 1917 and Sam Mendes. I admit I didn’t think a Foreign Film could do it. But it happened. And it’s a glorious day indeed.
Thanks to Sasha & Ryan for keeping this site going, and for making us root for the underdogs- and sometimes missing, and sometimes coming out a champion. Congrats to everyone on their predictions and thanks for making this once again, a fun and electrifying environment that keeps my mind buzzing with creativity from November – February (used to be March lol).
Not giving it Editing or Production Design isn’t that shocking. Editing often goes to the movie with the MOST editing (think Bourne Ultimatum or Whiplash), and as a contemporary piece, Production Design was always a steep hill. Kind of like Costume Design.
I do not aim this at the people who simply thought 1917 was the most likely winner.
I also do not aim this at those saying 1917 was the overwhelming stats favourite (even though I strongly disagreed with this take throughout the season.)
I aim this exclusively at the people who were parading around saying that 1917 will absolutely, certainly win and those predicting Parasite are delusional:
Told ya.
All the naysayers and haters got crushed last night. They are still struggling to make sense of it.
No one is forcing them to like a movie but with the constant bashing and the annoying blabbing about stats and the impossibility of a foreign movie winning BP they have have brought it on themselves. NEVER SAY NEVER.
:)) Exactly!…
Ha. I don’t care about those people as much as the so-called “seasoned pundits” rationalizing their 1917 choice with narrative this and narrative that. Old conservative Oscar white men bla bla, never vote for a movie twice on the same ballot yada yada, 0-91 “stats” baloney…
What about that tweet from Sasha that Andrew posted here? Something about the Parasite predictors should predict Parasite through guts and instincts and do not rely on stats b/c you’re taking chances on something that has never happened. That came off so condescending.
While the stats were there for 1917 the reason I stuck with 1917 for Picture is I hadn’t really thought the Academy changed enough yet. Green Book winning last year definitely made one question that. I didn’t know if Parasite would survive the preferential. I don’t know about the parade of confidence the people predicting 1917 were flaunting, but considering that everyone was predicting Close to win they would have known better. Although I was predicting 1917 I wouldn’t have been surprised if Parasite won. I wouldn’t have been surprised if Hollywood or Jojo had won either.
I’m still so glad the Academy did the right thing. It’s one of the very few times that my favorite movie of the year wins Best Picture! 1917 was fine, but let’s be honest, It’d be another forgettable winner.
I took the last few hours thinking about what Parasite winning means. Here’s what I can say from now:
The foreign language thing was a record to be broken, but it was never an actual stat. It was like when Return of the King won, when no fantasy/sci-fi movie had won BP yet. The fact something never happened before doesn’t mean it’s statistically impossible. Making history happens.
The Netflix hate is real. Parasite was a theatrical release and a box office success while Roma was streaming and lost to a mediocre movie that got okay reviews to say the best. It looks like Netflix movies have no problems in terms of nominations and even some important wins, but the fact Roma couldn’t do what Parasite did proves the anti streaming sentiment in the film industry is something we cannot ignore anymore. Maybe Netflix will win BP only if it their movie has a big theatrical run and reported box office numbers.
The Editing stat. I admit I was wrong to say it wouldn’t be a problem for 1917. Birdman prevailed despite the Editing snub not because it was a one shot gimmick, but because it was the undeniable frontrunner after winning the PGA/DGA/SAG trifecta. I think that’s the only way to defeat a stat like Editing.
BAFTA is a mere Oscar predictions awards like Critics Choice, and the Globes proves again it’s not as irrelevant as people say. When OUATIH was the presumed frontrunner before it was dead in the water, the BFCA made a painfully obvious attempt in awarding it. When 1917 won Best Film and Director at the Globes, that was the moment we realized it was going to be a strong contender. And then it won PGA and DGA and BAFTA decided to award it even despite the lack of Acting, Screenplay and Editing noms there. I just can see it as mere attempt to predict the Oscars, and a wrong one for the sixth consecutive year.
There was no realistic scenario where Bong would win Director. Mendes won the Globes, BFCA, BAFTA and specially the DGA, which wasn’t wrong since 2002 and even that year the Oscar winner had won BAFTA. Bong won nothing important expect the BFCA tie with Mendes. It was a genuinely MASSIVE upset and please do not compare it with Olivia Colman. She had won the Globe and BAFTA, the same combo Marion Cotillard had 11 years before.
But what Bong massively shocking (but very well deserved) upset in Director means? This year had everything to be another Picture (screenplay driven acting showcase) / Director (directing driven technical marvel) split. I think this could be a sign that these splits probably won’t happen so often anymore.
I’m pleased that Parasite won the awards it won. I’ll say this was one of the most competitive races I’ve seen in my 17 years of following the Oscars religiously (FTR, I started in 2003 at the age of 14 when Chicago won). I was surprised that Bong won over Mendes, but he truly deserved it. To be honest, I liked both 1917 and Parasite, and either one would be a worthy in my opinion (and I’m at least relieved that 1917 VFX team and Roger Deakins were recognized). So, congrats to both superb films.
Other thoughts:
1. Martin and Rock nailed the monologue. I certainly wished they hosted.
2. Eilish and Monae were brilliant.
3. Happy that Little Women won Costumes.
4. I did not like how they utilized some of the presenters like Beanie Feldstein, George MacKay, and Kelly Marie Tran to brief appearances introducing other presenters. It kinda felt disrespectful to them.
5. Also four of the five musical performances of the Original Songs nominees did not get an introduction. That felt kind of abrupt and ruined the flow of the ceremony.
6. Eminem did a good performance, but was left wondering why he performed this year and not in 2003 when he won.
7. Oh, and glad Toy Story 4 won as well.
I’ve never been so happy to be so wrong on my predictions. I was jumping up and down when ‘Parasite’ won Best Picture. My jaw was on the floor when Bong Joon-Ho upset Sam Mendes for Best Director. I did predict that ‘Parastie’ might upset ‘Once Upon A Time…In Hollywood’ for Best Original Screenplay, as I can claim partial credit for that one. I’m not sure I agreed with the decision on Best Production Design, though. I thought ‘Jojo Rabbit’ or ‘1917’ would have been better choices; but that’s just one man’s opinion. The acting categories were totally predictable and didn’t really generate the usual hype leading up to the ceremony. I was very pleased to see Taika Waititi win Best Adapted Screenplay for ‘Jojo Rabbit.’ Best Cinematography was a no-brainer (Hooray for Roger Deakins). Best Film Editing surprised me, a bit. I actually had ‘Parastie’ picked to win that, but ‘Jojo Rabbit’ would have been a good choice, too. All in all, I thought it was a wild night, with some predictable outcomes, and a healthy does of upsets. Congrats to the cast and crew of ‘Parasite’ and the nation of South Korea on making Oscar history. ‘Parasite’ was my favorite film out of the Best Picture nominees, so that’s double satisfaction for me.
It just occured to me that this is the second year in a row where Best Picture went to a film where a person was driving another person. It’s small, but a fun fact.
I was thrown off predicting it to win because it didn’t have any acting nominations, and 1917 winning the PGA and DGA made it (1917) seem so inevitable to win.
And Roger Deakins can only win Cinematography Oscars in movies with years in their titles.
Fantastic Rob! Nice pickup fact.
I love stuff like that. Haha. 🙂
But 1917 didn’t have those either, and also had no ensemble nomination (an award Parasite even won), no ACE nomination (same) and no Oscar editing nomination… Plus, PGA+DGA we already knew was weaker than SAG+WGA (and definitely weaker than SAG+WGA+ACE).
I am way past my bedtime and have a simple question. Does the wreckage from this night mean the Best Foreign Language movie is damaged beyond any hope of repair?
Man, this night sucked sewer water.
No, just you. You’re the only wreckage from tonight that’s damaged beyond repair.
^ This
^ This and ^^ This too
What “Best Foreign Language” category?
“The difference between the Academy and the other voting bodies are the actors, who dominate.“
Actors also dominate BAFTAs and it became a kiss of the death for Best Picture contenders.
The biggest difference is the way winners are counted.
Simple majority x preferential ballot.
Sasha spent quite some time saying (after she predicted Green Book would win) that people don’t get the preferential ballot. In one year… everything changes. It was ALL about the preferential ballot this year once again. And she completely misinterpreted the race this time.
The bigger difference is the British bias, clearly. Remember, Parasite also won BD here! Do we really think it would have still lost BP without the preferential ballot, after that? Also, The Favourite won 7 BAFTA’s last year and only 1 Oscar, 1917 won 7 and only 3 Oscars, and so on… So, yeah, I don’t really think it was the preferential ballot that gave Parasite the win.
It’s been a lovely short race! But a little dull on the actors side..
Now let’s wait for Berlinale…
I concur. The acting races have been dull as shit for a fucking long time.
Glen Close says hi from last year
Any more in recent years? Hardly. Coleman was a very close second, so that wasn’t exacly out of the blue. I say give me a James Coburn, Adrian Brody, Marcia Gay Harden type of win.
I thought Bong could take Director, but I never dreamed he would take them both.
#bestoscarsever (Or Top 3, let’s say.)
Other lessons learned tonight:
– never underestimate a good car racing movie
– never underestimate Elton John
– if they’re spreading the wealth (i.e., Production Design), Hollywood nostalgia trumps Mafia nostalgia (as well as the Best Picture winner)
So glad Parasite won. It’s one of the rare movies that’s not only an entertaining watch but genuinely has something to say about the world we live in today. No complaints.
Dead on!
Question for you: I can’t remember of a quarter of Acting winners so legendary in the moment they received their Oscars as this one. All four are genuine legends.
Zellweger is considered a legend?
Well, how many actresses do you remember having iconic roles in comedies, musicals and dramas? She has it all.
That is a fair point. I still don’t feel like she has reached actual legend status of, say, Glenn Close, Meryl Streep, Julia Roberts or Nicole Kidman.
Yes she is a legend.
My ranking of Best Picture winners for the decade:
Moonlight
Parasite
Birdman
12 Years A Slave
The King’s Speech
Spotlight
The Shape of Water
Argo
Green Book
Not seen: The Artist
mine:
1. Spotlight
2. Parasite
3. 12 years a slave
4. Argo
5. TSOW
6. The Artist
7. Birdman
8. TKS
9. Moonlight
10. Green Book
I really wished I like Moonlight more, but the two times I watched it, it really bores me to no end.
It pisses me off. I think the final act is simply atrocious and kind of ruined the film to me. Kevin used Chiron the whole film and was never able to admit his feelings. Even after Chiron opens his heart in the end. But people thought that was an uplifting ending. OK…
Wait, is Kevin gay too?
Wow, there might be a chance that I don’t really understand the film.
Yes, you missed the point of the entire thing. Nobody in this movie “used” anyone. Feelings at the end of the movie are completely clear between both of them. If you saw the final moment between them and this is your conclusion something is askew in your world.
1. Birdman
2. Parasite
3. Moonlight
4. 12 years a slave
5. The king’s speech
6. The shape of water
7. Green Book
8. Argo
9. The Artist
10. Spotlight
The Artist
Moonlight
Parasite
The King´s Speech
12 Years a Slave
Spotlight
The Shape of Water
Birdman
Argo
Green Book
1. Parasite
2. 12 Years a Slave
3. Spotlight
4. The Artist
5. Moonlight
6. The King’s Speech
7. Green Book
8. Birdman
9. The Shape of Water
10. Argo
1. Parasite
2. Argo
3. Birdman
4. Spotlight
5. The King’s Speech
6. The Artist
7. 12 Years a Slave
8. Green Book
9. The Shape of Water
10. Moonlight
Actually liked all ten to a degree, but loved only the first two.
Moonlight
Parasite
12 Years a Slave
Spotlight
Birdman
The King’s Speech
The Artist
Argo
The Shape of Water
Green Book
The Artist
Spotlight
The King’s Speech
The Shape of Water
Argo
Green Book
12 Years a Slave
Moonlight
Parasite
Birdman
1. Parasite/Moonlight/12 Years a Slave
4. Birdman
5. The Artist
6. Spotlight
10. The King’s Speech/The Shape of Water/Green Book/Argo
Moonlight
The Shape of Water / Parasite (I’ll figure this out later)
Birdman
The King’s Speech
The Artist
Spotlight
12 Years a Slave
Argo
Green Book
Parasite
The King’s Speech
The Artist
12 Years A Slave
Green Book
The Shape of Water
Argo
Moonlight
Not seen: Birdman, Spotlight
12 Years a Slave
Spotlight
Birdman
Moonlight
Parasite
Green Book (on enjoyability alone I’d probably have this a bit higher)
The King’s Speech
The Artist
Argo
The Shape of Water (bottom 2 could easily flip – just not sure; probably enjoyed Argo a touch more, even if I ultimately disliked both)
I don’t like ranking films…
I’d say 12 Years a Slave, Moonlight and Parasite (in chrono order) are as good as Oscar winners can get. Groundbreaking both in filmmaking and BP choices.
Spotlight, while traditional was spotless in execution.
The King’s Speech got bad rap b/c it defeated a beloved film, but I thought it was good “pop” entertainment.
The rest, pretty vexing experiences.
Some thoughts on why I predicted Parasite instead of 1917…
-Sasha makes the argument that 1917’s status as a late breaking film hurt its chances overall, because it couldn’t gain enough momentum in the acting categories. But I disagree, I think the fact that it was late breaking was the best thing it had going for it. My theory is that it was running out of steam by the time Oscar voting rolled around. It peaked for nominations, Globes, PGA, and DGA, but then it ran out of gas. It was never built for the long haul, IMO. And I don’t think MacKay ever had a chance to get a nom for Actor this year (as much as I would have nominated personally). I sensed that people got swept up in the hysteria for 1917 when it was released, and then quickly fell out of love and came back to Parasite.
-ACE was a nice indicator, but SAG and WGA were the clinchers for me. Along with my theory of 1917’s demise, these two guilds signaled significant strength in the two most important branches related to Best Picture: actors and writers. As Al pointed out, 8 of the last 10 BP winners also won screenplay. Because Parasite won WGA (first time ever for foreign language), I knew it was going to win Original Screenplay, which gave it a distinct advantage over 1917. Furthermore, the SAG win signaled immense strength from the all important acting branch. An all foreign cast winning ensemble for a film in subtitles was a serious bellwether for me. And all three industry wins were also a sign that Parasite’s status as a foreign language film was NOT going to hurt it. The American film industry was ready and willing to support this film all the way.
-And last, but not least, passion. Academy members were oozing with passion for Parasite. I got the same feeling with Moonlight in 2016. You could tell people loved the film, which gave me confidence in picking it to win Picture that year. The love for Parasite was clearly evident, much more so than 1917, Once, or Jojo. I agree with Sasha that it probably won on the first round, at the very most second or third rounds.
At any rate, I’m so happy Parasite won. I would have been fine with 1917 or Hollywood, but Parasite is clearly the film of the year, and one that will stand the test of time, IMO. I hope its win will open the door to Korean cinema for American audiences.
Well said.
“It was never built for the long haul, IMO.”
Exactly – never felt to me like this movie could withstand very well being the front runner.
Who are the next directors who has the best chance to win BP w/ foreign-language film?
3 amigos are probably the best bet.
Villeneuve probably too.
Farhadi is one of the best but I don’t think his films will ever win BP.
Who else? Pawlikowski? Alfredson? Audiard? Sorrentino? Haneke? Luca?
imo there needs to be a definition of POC, people of color. So many saying there’s no people of color nominated (no blacks) or winning, but aren’t Asians considered POC? And didn’t a black animated movie win an award.
So how many POC and black people have to be nom’d or win for the Academy to be considered “#Oscarssowhite”?
I don’t know but every year they make lots of jokes about it at the ceremony, which in an ironic way kind of allows them to laugh and dismiss it. Hey Oscar so (fill in the blank), where are all the (fill in the blank), ha ha the crowd chuckles. It’s getting lame regardless of how one feels about the situation.
I think that criticism is generally attached to the acting categories, which were almost entirely white. It’s pretty telling that the movie of the year, which swept the major awards, couldn’t land a single actor in the supporting categories.
I agree that more attention should be paid to the diverse range of winners in other categories.
It’s a great feeling when the Best Picture Oscar actually goes to the best picture.
I think Sam Mendes was the best director this year, I don’t have a clear opinion abour best picture.
I do:)
I adore the Parasite score which they used at the announcement so much.
It’s such a fitting score for the atmosphere that happened during the announcement.
Another 2 that I loved are the Silence of the Lambs score and Malena score (which they used for Morricone’s honorary Oscar).
Life is Beautiful score too
Considering all of what PARASITE did win I’m actually a tad surprised it lost Editing.
Everything that won was deserving even if it’s not what I had predicted. And that’s good enough for me… Here’s to 2020 and hoping it can be even close to as good as this bunch of films is.
I’m not surprised Parasite lost Editing. Plenty of BP winners lost it.
This is becoming something of a tradition (which maybe is something to think about – the fact that it’s so easy for me to compile these lists almost every year and then have the people in question be wrong at the end, despite the level of certainty they displayed at the time they made those statements), so here it is – the list of locks (the ones I came across and remembered to write down) proclaimed for Best Picture throughout this season that were ultimately found to be premature (I just don’t like it when people call locks for no good reason – you’ll notice I don’t include any statements from people merely claiming 1917 was a big favorite, but only those saying it couldn’t/absolutely wouldn’t lose – and I think they should be called out for it… but I have absolutely nothing against anybody on this list on a personal level, needless to say):
Chase Meridian, circa 13 JAN – “1917 got in for script, it’s over kiddo”
Chase Meridian, 18 JAN – “It’s a two horse race between 1917 and JoJo. But shhhh! Don’t tell the “experts”.”
Jesús Alonso, circa 15 JAN – “1917 can’t lose. Just came out of the theater […] Best war film ever, probably. Everything Saving Private Ryan should have been and wasn’t”
Scos, 19 JAN – “Well, that’s the race over and done with. Welcome to the Oscar Best Picture club 1917!”
Damian Pietrzak, 19 JAN – “It’s basically game over not just because 1917 won PGA but also because it will win DGA and BAFTA and already has won GG. PGA/DGA/GG/BAFTA is stellar combo. People are bringing up editing miss and no SAG nominations but they don’t matter in this instance.”
Alper, 20 JAN – “And the best picture Oscar goes to…..1917 congrats :)”
babynole, 20 JAN – “1917is winning best movie, director and cinematography. Parasite has no chances at all…”
Phill Milner, 21 JAN – “1917 is a lock winning BP after PGA and SAG. Calling it now.”
Aaron Reichwald, 26 JAN – “Best a picture- as near certain lock as u expect for 1917”
Dominik, 26 JAN – “I don´t think anything can stop 1917 now.”
Li-Wright, 26 JAN – “Well that’s it, it’s over. 1917 for the BP win.”
Yvan, 26 JAN – “Well, I guess it’s over. Luckily, next year’s first-ever foreign language Best Picture winner is arriving soon.”
juniJunior, 27 JAN – “Well I guess its over. If the academy has no foreign language category, it would be a tighter race.”
Henrique Cabral, 27 JAN – “I don’t think Feb 9 will be bumpy at all. All acting awards are locked, as are editing (Parasite), director and picture and international feature. its in the scripts and tech / production awards that things might get interesting, albeit I’m counting on 1917 to win most of those too.”
tritechie, 3 FEB – “I think it’s a wrap next Sunday. I guess that mighty SAG win for Parasite meant absolutely nothing.”
Someone, 4 FEB – “LOL. Don’t lie to youself. “1917” will win easily. :)”
And I understand Andrew has also been, in typical fashion, shouting from the rooftops that 1917 was something of a lock, but I can’t confirm it with 100% certainty because I’ve had him blocked for years. I’m just assuming he has, based on what people have replied to his posts, which I can’t see.
I had predicted that Hollywood would win and was badly wrong, but I just knew, intuitively, that a war movie like 1917 was a bad fit for the voters ;those kind of movies won 20 yrs ago but not now ; Parasite had the ”making history” thing going for it and it had a political social commentary that liberal Hollywood like to get behind ,and so I’m not surprised ; over at GD some of the wisest predictors such as Tom O’Neil and Tariq Khan and Joyce got it right, as did two of the folks from Collider , but I don’t think anyone got Bong’s BD win
Scott Manz picked Bong as well.
Yup… 1917 did not make much sense. The PGA win was really the only reason anybody should have predicted it, and that didn’t hold much water either, anyway. (Since it was only producers and Parasite was just not the kind of movie they’d ever go for, or ever really had, in the past.)
Actually, no fewer than 6 Gold Derby experts had Bong by the end (don’t know whether they had him early on and stuck to him or switched at the last minute due to the obvious love for Parasite – latter seems more likely), including Jeff Wells.
Haha, but I did predict Parasite to win! 😉
You called BS on your own earlier lock call – sign of objectivity! I like it!
Yeah, but to be true, I´m not really that obsessed with the predicting stuff, my main focus is to discuss films. That´s always the most interesting part in visiting AD, to get into conversation about the films itself.
🙂 I’m not obsessed either – I get very involved and invested in the predictions part but, once I stop and think (or when I think about it in the off-season), I realize I don’t care that much. But I enjoy it a lot, even so. Because of the stats (which I do care about, of course).
Even though I´m not that much into stats, as you know, I´m really interested: Do you have to revise your stats system after this year? I mean, it happened before that the PGA/DGA/Globe champion lost Best Picture with La La Land, but it´s extremely rare and it makes it even more difficult to evaluate the outcome especially of the guilds. There seem to be so many aspects crucial when considering who wins in the end and the precursor awards are only one part of it.
Not at all. 🙂 Parasite is a very typical BP winner (by this point – although I AM proud to say I always took the SiL and Crash precedents seriously from the very beginning, even before it was cool to do so, and gave SAG and especially WGA the respect they deserved as a result, helping me see clearly the great potential to win for three different recent winners I otherwise wouldn’t have, Spotlight, Moonlight and now Parasite), following in the footsteps of Shakespeare in Love, Crash (both of whom beat PGA+DGA+Globe winners too), Moonlight (which also did that, even without the SAG win, with just the WGA) and Spotlight (which didn’t beat a PGA+DGA winner, but only a DGA+Globe winner, but was still not a winner of any of those awards itself). So, yeah, nothing to change. (Of course, I only use the top 5 guilds – not SAG acting or ACE wins, but nominations counting for both, and both wins and nominations counting for PGA, DGA, WGA and SAG Ensemble – and Oscar nomination stats – considering adding BAFTA BP as a necessary nomination -, so the Globe doesn’t enter into it anyway.) Had 1917 won… there would have been issues… 🙂 Potentially unsolvable ones. (Probably not, but BIG changes would have been needed.) All of its snubs made it a far, far more atypical potential winner. Unprecedented, really… Like I said: this was a big win for the stats.
The revisions I’ve been making are more due to my having recently discovered (and confirmed) that Braveheart was also snubbed by PGA (not just SAG) – it still comes out the favorite according to my new rules -, plus my desire to remove acting and SAG nominations from all of my elimination rules. I have a final form of my updated system ready, and have for weeks (again, with the updates, anyhow, not affecting this year’s race in any way), but just haven’t found the time to write it down in (generally) intelligible language and post it here yet. Will probably do this in the upcoming days. In short, it’s a bunch of elimination rules (that have to do with showing weakness with at least two different top 5 branches in terms of Oscar or guild nominations and, in the WGA’s case, losing the final vote) followed by a weakness count (for the remaining contenders, when more than one) by branch (with the aforementioned five branches – producers, directors, actors, writers and editors), based on guild wins and nominations and Oscar nominations. It’s the system that works best at predicting the full roster of PGA-era BP winners. (Oh, and some tiebreaks at the end, if there’s still uncertainty.) Parasite and Jojo Rabbit were the only ones that survived the elimination rules this year (had I added BAFTA BP as a necessary nomination, it would have been Parasite alone) and Parasite had a better weakness count (-2.5/PGA and DGA defeats, SAG & Oscar acting snubs partially made up for by SAG Ensemble win) than all other movies anyway.
Also you did say I don’t think anything can stop 1917, which isn’t the worst way to call a lock, anyway. 🙂 It’s borderline.
Haha I love this calling out. I could never be able to compile the list. Satisfying to read. It’s the DGA PGA BAFTA KoolAid crowd.
“the DGA PGA BAFTA KoolAid crowd”
I love it! 🙂 Maybe DGA-BAFTA is even better. That encompasses The Revenant and Roma, as well… (Very similar cases.)
But you know Claudiu, we are desperately waiting for a compliation of quotes when you got it wrong now! 😉
Go for it! See if you find any locks I ever called that then didn’t happen! I’m very curious whether there are any – I suspect not. It’s just not in my nature…
Not in mine neither. I might have made one statement in a disappointed mood after 1917 won PGA (if that was the situation where my quote was picked from), but I´m one of the few commenters on this site predicting very early that Parasite could win this – and I probably posted about dozens comments where I stated this.
So you just had a moment of despair. 🙂 More than understandable, of course. Your quote was January 26th, apparently, so about a week after PGA. Post-SAG, too, if it’s actually JAN 26, but I read a lot of comments several days after they were made this season so I can’t be sure about that at all.
I only switched to Parasite after it won SAG (not immediately, but maybe 2-3 days after – I can probably find out the exact date, but it doesn’t seem that important), and I decided it was going to win the WGA as well, thus becoming the stats favorite. I briefly had 1917 after PGA too, but, obviously, with zero conviction. I guess that was my moment of resignation… 🙂 Eventually, I realized I couldn’t fully justify its snub stats no matter what and, if it didn’t win the WGA, I just couldn’t in all conscience predict it officially. After that, it was Parasite all the way. Both officially and unofficially. But my early predictions were nowhere near that (although I did think the argument about it being way more accessible than Roma, and not Netflix, was pretty convincing, and it “worried” me – just didn’t think it made it the most likely winner) – I had The Irishman very briefly, before I had a chance to even read much about the movies (later, when I saw it, I instantly knew there was no way it was ever winning, and this was pre-GG & BFCA failures), then Once briefly, I think, then 1917 as soon as it came out to great reviews, then Once for a very long time (I switched to it even before the first critics awards, I think), until PGA.
For me, it was really a gut feeling that made me predict Parasite in the end. 1917 didn´t seem to be as relevant as Parasite in our times, it was probably more admired for it´s technical achievements, while Parasite was considered the more accomplished film overall. But it was pretty close, I guess – and that PGA/DGA/Globe/BAFTA combo made it not easy to stay with Parasite. Despite the murmuring here and there that everybody was amazed by that film. In the end, it all seems to make sense, but it´s a HUGE decision, of course, since it never happened before that a foreign language film won the main award.
Re: Roma: I guess it was simply too artsy, too subtle (maybe also too much Netflix 😉 But regardless, I love that film. It´s sooo weird that the Academy awarded something like Parasite the year after they crowned something like Green Book as their favorite! 🙂
“1917 didn´t seem to be as relevant as Parasite in our times”
Yeah, precisely that was one of the main reasons I stuck with it for my intuitive prediction as well. (Unlike, say, what I did the year of The Big Short and Spotlight, when the former was my stats prediction and the latter was my unofficial, intuitive one, or last year when those were, respectively, The Favourite and Roma.) But yeah, I agree, this was not an easy year to call – not even stats-wise.
“It´s sooo weird that the Academy awarded something like Parasite the
year after they crowned something like Green Book as their favorite! :-)”
JP’s reactionary theory. 🙂 (That the winner is a reaction to what won – or what lost – the year before.) Always made sense to me. Very similar to the diversification theory I picked up very early on in my Oscar-watching career. I even said recently I didn’t think 1917, with its 78 Metascore, was enough of a reaction to Green Book’s win last year, with its 69.
Agree, there are quite many examples in the Academy´s history where one winner seems to be a direct counterpart to the previous year´s winner. For example big studio winner and box office hit Titanic after the year the indies dominated the Oscars (in 1996).
1917 Metacritic score was indeed not that impressive, but your argument is even more valid in considering why Jojo couldn´t win Best Picture – as some of us were predicting.
Yeah, that’s why I never thought Jojo could win, even when it cleared all the hurdles almost unscathed. It was just too similar to Green Book in at least that way (also the being upbeat thing). I said repeatedly that I had to see it to believe it. 🙂 Even though it was technically stats-valid – the only one apart from Parasite that was.
I was planning to see it a couple of times, but after I watched some clips it clearly discouraged me. 🙂 Too many corny jokes for my taste.
Oh yeah, I kinda’ hated it. I mean, I guess it wasn’t annoying to the level of making me hate it, but it wasn’t far… The dialogue was quite bad throughout and it was rarely funny.
I will definitely stream it one day. It´s kinda sad that it beat Little Women, since that has an amazing screenplay and is a great, modern, touching film!
Oh, it’s a disastrous decision!… Worst decision they could have made – the worst nominated screenplay (by far) beat what was probably the best nominated screenplay (in that category).
[These are all my opinions, nothing more – obviously.]
One update, at least, did play a part, I now realize – the rule about needing to win PGA/DGA/WGA physically, that I decided to add. (Which was needed to rule out The Irishman – and Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood.)
In the end, I got exactly what I wanted out of this Oscar season – a BP race complex enough to truly test my updated system (although I’m not sure the updates really played into its holding this year), but one it could get right, so I could build back some confidence (in my head) in its validity. 🙂
Although no, not even that – because Parasite wasn’t eliminated and won the count. (But that rule is needed in order to retroactively get last year right, as otherwise you can’t eliminate BlacKkKlansman when every other movie is eliminated.) So, no, ultimately none of the updates came into play this year.
I prefer to spotlight those who did get it right!
https://twitter.com/Tepi76/status/1170888570904764421?s=20
Absolutely – but I think both have a place in the conversation! The praise for the bold ones who saw it coming a mile away and the calling out of those who can’t help themselves predicting locks. I really do think this lockitis should stop at some point, and I’ve been making efforts to eradicate it for years… 🙂 The first time I compiled this list was the Spotlight year. (I only did it again last year, though, I think, and now this year.)
I wish I could give you the first quote for next year, but I really have no idea right now. Lots of titles with big names attached to it are circulating but I’m not sold on any of them. I dared not call Parasite when I first saw it back in July, but I sure had this crazy dream it could go all the way, or at least snag a nomination after the in-roads made by Roma last year and as buzz was already strong among American critics and Fall Festival organizers. It seemed a good bet for International Film after its Palme d’Or though.
I can’t claim I had any feeling about it, ever. 🙂 Even after I saw it I didn’t get a winner vibe from it. (Nor did I get any strong loser vibe, of course.) And, before I saw it, it always sounded a bit atypical for a potential winner, at best – but, luckily, I don’t let such things influence either my official or even my unofficial prediction for Best Picture. It’s all stats and results and numbers and intuition, for me. Even my unofficial, intuitive prediction is always heavily influenced by the stats situation – it is, in fact, usually just a different reading of that situation than my official, “system” reading, which results in my official predictions…
It is bad form to gloat…so I won’t. https://media0.giphy.com/media/KDVsZlSaVeUSVu1SnY/giphy.gif
This is not gloating. 🙂 I’m not calling people out for merely predicting something other than Parasite (whatever that may have been – not even if it was Jojo Rabbit or whatever else besides the top 3, even if I never believed in those theories). I’m calling out those who claimed locks for 1917 – calling locks on obviously very unclear races is just something I really dislike seeing. When it happens, I want the people in question to then at least be forced to own up to it later. It seems only fair.
When somebody calls a lock where most other people see no clarity whatsoever, especially if they provide no detailed case for their claim, to me that’s offensive, that’s them saying they think they know better than the rest of us. Which is fine, I can take being implicitly called dumb, but then I think I have the right to point out they were wrong – which I’ve done without malice -, if they turn out to be.
I didn’t mean to imply you were gloating. Just trying to resist the temptation your post provides… 😉
I figured, honestly, but I thought I should write all that just in case – couldn’t be sure what you meant. 🙂
February 23, 2020: In the Heights is winning Best Picture. La La Land with a political message. It’s unbeatable.
:)) Totally! I’ve got my first entry for 2021, then. 🙂 It does sound like a good prediction…
It already has big stats going against it though, such as its early release date (late June) or its probable lack of acting noms, but if it’s as beloved as I expect it to be (the Academy loves Miranda) it could certainly overcome those weaknesses. It feels like the right film at the right time, the perfect opportunity to finally recognize the Latino community with a film that oozes good vibrations, it would also be a great way to follow-up Parasite with another exciting and diverse choice, that also happens to be a major studio film.
Ah… but JP’s theory, though – that the BP winner is usually a reaction to what didn’t win the year before, as opposed to what did win -, seems to suggest it won’t be a “diverse” film or a film with no acting nominations again… But Parasite itself didn’t look so hot in terms of pre-December stats, and look how that turned out! So, indeed, anything is possible, that’s for sure… Times are a-changin’. 🙂 (The only question is: are they changing that fast? With AMPAS, the answer is usually “no”, but one can never be sure about these things.)
P.S.: This got me thinking, so I looked at my tables and it turns out that, while we all know movies without directing, editing, screenplay or acting nominations have won Best Picture at various times throughout the years, since all of these categories have existed together (so, since 1935), it has only happened once that two movies snubbed for the same one of those categories win Best Picture back-to-back: An American in Paris and The Greatest Show on Earth, in 1952 and 1953, respectively, both won despite having no acting nominations. And, almost always, a win by a movie with at least one such snub is followed up with a win by a movie nominated in all four categories – in fact, only four times (the above one included) in that same period have movies not nominated for all four (director-editing-screenplay-acting) won back-to-back. Most recently, of course, Green Book and Parasite. (The other exceptions are all much, much older.) So, next year, we should expect a winner with no key Oscar snubs!
It makes perfect sense, but for all we know now ITH might actually end up getting those key noms: Anthony Ramos has already become the talk of the town and is now snagging lead roles based on the trailer and expectations alone, Olga Merediz could sneak in Supporting Actress, editing looks super tight and one of the film’s best chances at a win, screenplay might seem like a longer shot for a musical adaptation but it happened in the past (West Side Story, My Fair Lady, Oliver !, Cabaret, Chicago, four out of five won best picture) and this one has quite the emotional backstory as Miranda’s early success, written as a student, an ode to his childhood neighborhood, and changes were made to include “dreamers” in the plot, director seems like the biggest challenge but again if the industry loves the film it will get boosted across the board, it does look like a greater directing achievement than Green Book.
As to the “reaction to what didn’t win the year before” theory, an upbeat Broadway musical sounds different enough from a bleak Korean thriller to fit the critierium, or should we expect a video-game-style war film to win next year?
PS: it’s nice to see you stick around a while longer after the Oscars. I hope Ryan posts a preview and poll of next year’s contenders soon so we can have your impressions.
All excellent points! 🙂 Definitely could get the nods (even if it sounds less than 50% likely to me at the moment – but of course you know a lot more about it than I do as, you may remember, I try to avoid spoilers as much as possible for the upcoming Oscar season’s movies, so I do almost no research beyond the minimum required to decide whether or not I want to see something ASAP), and definitely sounds different enough from Parasite, when you put it like that… True, no musical lost last year (as was the case, for example, when Chicago won Best Picture right after Moulin Rouge! didn’t, despite winning the PGA), but that hardly seems like a huge problem. (Especially since it doesn’t sound at all similar to 1917 or Jojo Rabbit or Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood.) We’ll know more based on how it starts the precursor season – it’s always nigh on impossible to be confident about anything before that. Oh, and great stat about the musical adaptations nominated for screenplay – thanks for that! Maybe that was La La Land’s problem (in terms of not winning picture) – well, one of them. 🙂 That it was original. No snob appeal, as Tom O’Neil likes to say…
Not really sticking around (believe me, even if I wanted to, there’s just no time, there’s way too much to do, including stuff I slacked off on towards the end of Oscar season). I’m very much still on break – just doing replies to anybody writing me directly, as time permits. Those don’t take long to write, obviously, and our conversations are always fun. 🙂
P.S.: I just saw Knives Out (which I think we talked about earlier, at one point) and LOVED it. Easily top 5 of the year (2019) for me, at least so far. Were it not for the incident at the center of the plot (the murder, let’s call it) and the way it takes place being a liiittle bit too far-fetched, upon reflection (during the movie, I didn’t even think about it, that’s how well it was conceived and staged, but in hindsight it does seem to me a bit implausible for a person, whatever their age and motivations, to do that), it would have also been my favorite screenplay of the year. As it is, it’s still between Marriage Story and One Cut of the Dead. (With, of course, much left to see, but also most of the key stuff in those categories covered.) But that one plot point and maybe Chris Evans’ performance not quite measuring up to the work from the rest of the cast (in my opinion) are LITERALLY the only quibbles I have. Apart from that, I thought the concept and writing were absolutely brilliant and the execution was pretty much flawless. And, of course, it was a lot of fun. One of the most fun movies of the year. Marta Cabrera is classic character material, as far as I’m concerned, and Ana de Armas is, as advertised, excellent in the role.
Well, I mustn’t hold you much longer then. I’m really glad you enjoyed Knives Out. I’m realizing now I already forgot the details of the crime because it was so convoluted, so I’m looking forward to re-discovering the film on VOD, but I did love Chris Evans, as always.
I have Oscar on my mind all year long, so I start researching future contenders as soon as the ceremony has ended and I must say next season already looks packed with lots of interesting projects, but nothing quite as exciting or as broadly likeable as In the Heights, so until more stuff comes up that is not on the radar yet, I stick to my guns for the time being.
Wishing you a very good break, may you find the time to do everything you’ve got planned and time to rest also!
No, come on, don’t worry about that!… 🙂 I can easily find time to write a reply or two every other day – this was no bother AT ALL! Anybody can write me off-season, if they want (and one or two people have, some years), and I’ll always answer gladly. I just don’t have time to read the articles or comments or write stuff myself, like I do during winter – and I’m used to this way of doing it, too, by now (taking a break during spring and summer), and think it’s best, or else maybe I could even find time to do a bit of that… Maybe in the future – like, if I ever quit chess or something, thus freeing up a lot of extra time.
You have a great warm season too! 🙂
Hi Claudiu, I hope everything’s all right for you and your family. Crazy times we’re living. Take care.
Hey – sorry I didn’t reply earlier! I tend to get into the habit of not checking my email very often once the Oscars are done every year, it was also a particularly busy time for a while, and I hadn’t checked for a couple of weeks until now, as a result… We’re all OK over here, though – so far. 🙂 I hope you are as well. Take care!
Nice to hear from you. I’m fine. Thank you. Keep safe.
🙂 Will certainly do my best…
Turns out my prediction has already been quashed…
https://deadline.com/2020/04/in-the-heights-summer-2021-release-date-1202914093/
As tempted as I am to repeat it for the next year, I don’t want to jinx it so I’ll just keep quiet.
A mere postponement… 🙂 I guess it might have been easier for it to prevail next year, with less competition?! What’s the current plan for the Oscars? Sticking to March, or will this spring’s shutdown have an effect on that – have they said anything at all? They probably haven’t, or else I would have heard about it, one way or another…
The Academy has its next board meeting scheduled for Tuesday. The Oscars are still a long way away so I don’t see any reason to change anything now as things might be back to normal by then. The main question is how competitive will the year be when big players such as Nightmare Alley or The Last Duel were shut while filming and will probably be postponed too?
At the very least the films that were ready for Cannes will be ready to unspool when theaters re-open (The French Dispatch, Benedetta, Bergman Island, On the Rocks, Ammonite, Annette), as well as sophisticated summer fare such as The Woman in the Window or Tenet and Netflix propably has a few cards up its sleeve (Mank, Blonde, Da 5 Bloods). In fact, that would be my new prediction: Netflix finally takes BP due to lack of competition (April 24th, 2020).
But won’t the voters feel the need to protect traditional cinema even more against the streaming service threat, in this particular context? (Since it’s taking such an unexpected hit at the moment.) Might make it even harder for Netflix to win, if so… Anyway, yeah, speaking of Cannes and such, I was thinking maybe the Oscars will be more indie/arthouse-friendly this time around, given the likely sparseness of big theatrical releases on offer. That would be nice. We would get sort of an alternative version of the Oscars, for one year. 🙂 But who knows?!
Makes sense. I tend to think when voters really love smth they’ll vote for it no matter what. But when it comes to BP and 50% of the vote is needed to win, I guess other factors might come into play. It’s clear the films that would’ve premiered at Cannes and other arthouse fare will have an easier time if the field is less packed, because it was looking to be pretty crowded actually, so if theaters do re-open by summer, we should still have a healthy crop of contenders. On the studio front, Dune is ready to go and the postponement of In the Heights surely is a godsend for West Side Story.
AMPAS is expected to address film eligibility concerns in light of the pandemic in a phone meeting on April 28.
As for the 2021 broadcast itself, there has been no announcement of postponement from its planned February 28 just yet. I’m thinking they’ll first see how this year’s Primetime Emmys (currently set for September 20) and next year’s Golden Globes (no date set yet) unfold to determine the logistics for the 93rd show. It also depends what California Gavin Newsom says about lifting the state’s ban on large gatherings pending if the situation improves (As an LA resident for the record, I’m fine and safe as of this writing).
In my opinion, they should do next year’s show in mid April since February is still in the midst of flu season, but that’s just me.
Very glad to hear you’re well! 🙂
I’m also in favor of a later ceremony next year – which would also make up a bit for the gap in the eligibility period (which they could then also extend).
@disqus_XeR5lOSBTf:disqus
I did a breakdown of the stats for the last 10 Best Picture winners. Here you go Ryan.
The Artist – 5
Birdman – 4
Parasite – 4
The King’s Speech – 4
The Shape of Water – 4
12 Years a Slave – 3
Argo – 3
Green Book – 3
Moonlight – 3
Spotlight – 2
4 won 4
4 won 3
1 won 5
1 won 2
Total = 35 wins
Ave. = 3.5 wins
Best Screenplay = 8 times (3 Adapted, 5 Original)
—
Acting = 5 times
*Actor 4 times (Leading 2 times, Supporting 2 times)
*Actress 1 time (Supporting)
Best Director = 5 times
—
Best Music = 2 times (both times Original Score)
—
Best Cinematography = 1 time
Best Costume Design = 1 time
Best Film Editing = 1 time
Best International Film = 1 time
Best Production Design = 1 time
@Awardsdaily:disqus
I did a breakdown of the stats for the last 10 Best Picture winners. Here you go Sasha.
The Artist – 5
Birdman – 4
Parasite – 4
The King’s Speech – 4
The Shape of Water – 4
12 Years a Slave – 3
Argo – 3
Green Book – 3
Moonlight – 3
Spotlight – 2
4 won 4
4 won 3
1 won 5
1 won 2
Total = 35 wins
Ave. = 3.5 wins
Best Screenplay = 8 times (3 Adapted, 5 Original)
—
Acting = 5 times
*Actor 4 times (Leading 2 times, Supporting 2 times)
*Actress 1 time (Supporting)
Best Director = 5 times
—
Best Music = 2 times (both times Original Score)
—
Best Cinematography = 1 time
Best Costume Design = 1 time
Best Film Editing = 1 time
Best International Film = 1 time
Best Production Design = 1 time
@Awardsdaily:disqus
I did a breakdown of the stats for the last 10 Best Picture winners. Here you go Sasha.
The Artist – 5
Birdman – 4
Parasite – 4
The King’s Speech – 4
The Shape of Water – 4
12 Years a Slave – 3
Argo – 3
Green Book – 3
Moonlight – 3
Spotlight – 2
4 won 4
4 won 3
1 won 5
1 won 2
Total = 35 wins
Ave. = 3.5 wins
Best Screenplay = 8 times (3 Adapted, 5 Original)
—
Acting = 5 times
*Actor 4 times (Leading 2 times, Supporting 2 times)
*Actress 1 time (Supporting)
Best Director = 5 times
—
Best Music = 2 times (both times Original Score)
—
Best Cinematography = 1 time
Best Costume Design = 1 time
Best Film Editing = 1 time
Best International Film = 1 time
Best Production Design = 1 time
“Sam Mendes and 1917 had won the Globe for Picture and Director, the Producers Guild, the Directors Guild and the BAFTA. But it was hurt by being a late breaking film”
Like I said… Before, we (as in Sasha) were saying the shortened season would help it… Yeah, you can always argue both the pros and the cons with these things, usually equally convincingly – it’s only the stats that never lie.
“On its own, a SAG ensemble stat isn’t a strong push towards Best Picture, but the standing ovation on television was probably the bigger influencer.”
OR maybe it was that key difference I (and others) keep banging on about every year – SAG+WGA vs. lone SAG win. Not even remotely the same thing…
“That it won Picture and Director showed passion. It probably won on the first round even.”
No way! It didn’t even win on the first round in the online ballots, as dominant as it was in those (more dominant than anything ever), and we’re supposed to think it did so with the Academy?! Nope. Don’t buy that at all. Maybe it won before the final round, that I’ll acknowledge is possible, but I’m almost certain it didn’t win after the first one. And probably didn’t even come close to doing so, as beloved as it clearly is. It just can’t be more beloved by AMPAS voters than the online community – I just don’t see how one can argue for that!
“I have to admit that I didn’t see it coming. If I had I would have been more conflicted about what would win Best Picture. I saw the bigger picture much differently. I was looking at how the studios had made so many great films this year. I just couldn’t imagine they would say, yeah but you didn’t make one better than this one here. But they did.”
Appreciate the acknowledgement – it’s never easy to admit these things. Not for anybody. The reason I never thought like that was that they seem to go for the scrappy underdog SO often at the Oscars, the “little movie that could”, as pundits call it sometimes. The Green Books and Moonlights and Spotlights and Slumdogs… And 1917 was never that, except for a short time, perhaps, before it won the Globe and such. After it won PGA, it was always the big bad front runner – although, in hindsight, it probably was never beating Parasite regardless. As I said at the time, producers were just never going to pick that as the best producing achievement of the year. A less specialized (and non-British) group of voters, though…
“The Academy has, in one night, completely changed what defines it, and in so doing, shut up its critics and forever altered its legacy. It is now officially a global institution, not a local one.”
I… wouldn’t go that far… Remember, #oscarssowhite came after 12 Years a Slave won Best Picture! I bet we don’t see a foreign film win again for a long time (although I hope I’m wrong) – but it’s nice that the first step has been taken.
I never viewed Parasite or 1917 as underdogs in regards to Best Picture. They were near equal competitors. Director on the other hand was an upset as the last director to lose the Oscar after winning Globes, DGA, and BAFTA was Ang Lee who lost to Steven Soderbergh in 2001. But I’m just happy that Deakins, Duran, and Bong won in an otherwise uneven and messy ceremony.
Oh, and Parasite winning Best Picture is not the endgame towards inclusion. I look forward to the day when foreign language not only win Oscars but can also be blockbusters in Anglo speaking nations (Imagine a marvel movie with no English).
Technically, 1917 was pretty clearly an underdog – I just chose to give extra heed to the one shot excuse for the editing snubs and the late breaking excuse for the 0 SAG nominations. But without those it should never win. Also, of course, I guess you can never entirely rule out a PGA+DGA winner – and, had it won the weakness count, maybe it could have won. But it didn’t (Parasite did), so it was a pretty clear underdog. How far behind is difficult to estimate.
“Director on the other hand was an upset as the last director to lose the
Oscar after winning Globes, DGA, and BAFTA was Ang Lee who lost to
Steven Soderbergh in 2001.”
Ah, but the last director to win after his movie being snubbed for both directing and editing was in 1950. 🙂 So, probably still an upset, overall, because such strong win stats tend to trump snub stats when the latter aren’t on 100% (although this is borderline, as it’s VERY close to 100% – 1 exception in 85 years), but definitely not a big upset, especially given the fact Bong did tie for Critics Choice. (Which is the only top 4 precursor Soderbergh won that year, as well, by the way.)
I bet it will soon be that time again! The time for pundits to start looking for all kinds of alternative explanations for why 1917 lost, instead of just acknowledging the obvious ones, the stats explanations, which provide us with the right answers year after year: that it had no editing nomination and lost the WGA (zero exceptions), that it had no editing or acting nominations (also zero exceptions), that it had 0 SAG nominations (zero exceptions after the first SAG year), and so on…
They kept mentioning the FLF thing ad nauseam when the stats this year dictated that they should finally consider letting that argument go.
Just what I’ve always said: precursor stats reflect the current situation, whereas historical trend stats like that reflect voter tendencies that may sometimes be outdated. (And, if precursor stats say they are outdated, then they probably are…)
Posting this here too:
Probably too tired to do the long stats posts today – might go to sleep soon, in fact, or I might read and answer some comments here, for which less focus is required -, but I can give some impressions on the show and other quick reactions:
– I thought the ceremony itself was, overall, one of the worst I’ve ever seen, possibly the worst (the lack of a host was less annoying this year, I thought they handled that aspect better, but the writing/production in general was atrocious, in my opinion, as were most of the songs/numbers – Eminem, sound issues notwithstanding, and Billie Eilish among the exceptions), but it was worth it to see the stats upheld in the end (in BP and most other categories); I hate the direction the Oscar ceremony is heading in of late, but I’ll take this trade-off every time, if it’s needed for the stats to triumph! Oscar night comes and goes… 🙂
– Steve Martin mispronounced Cynthia Erivo’s name, right?! I didn’t hallucinate that?! Anyway, like I said earlier, her “Stand Up” performance was one of the highlights of the evening for me…
– other highlights for me included Olivia Colman’s appearance and the Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Will Ferrell moment, and maybe Hildur’s speech – she seems like a really nice lady;
– I liked Phoenix’ speech and agree 100% with his thoughts;
– however, none of the wins themselves really got me particularly excited (apart from the obvious, Best Picture, but that was because of the stats – also Best Director, of course, because we never see an upset in that category, or even any suspense, so this was a great thing to witness), since I like Parasite just fine but am far from a huge fan or anything like that, and all of the wins for movies or performances I like more than that were thoroughly expected.
Oscar bets I made went well, as usual – I only broke even last year but, other than that, I’ve always made a profit on Oscar bets, every single year, I’m pretty sure, whether I got BP right or not. I depended almost completely on 1917 not winning picture this year in order to not register a fairly big loss, within the boundaries of the smallish amounts I bet on these things (by the time I was sure I needed to take it seriously, the odds were already far too low for it to be worth betting on, and I’d already bet on almost all of the opposition – Parasite was the only one I picked up relatively late, but the odds, thankfully, were still obscenely high for such an obviously huge contender, somewhere around 6 to 1, even then -, so I never bet anything on 1917 at any point), but, with Parasite upholding the stats, I made a healthy profit overall this year, as well. Small win on the BP bets (all placed pre-BAFTA), some wins in other categories (most bets placed just hours before the ceremony, as usual) and, importantly, a Parasite+Bong BP+BD win bet I made at 17 to 1 odds (because how could I not, at those odds?!), which accounts for pretty much all of said profit.
The problem is that the hostless approach is too dependent on the Song numbers. And that’s precisely the branch of the Academy that makes the most atrocious nomination choices every year.
Eminem’s performance pretty much made it even more clear how an all-time great winner compares to a mediocre lineup.
The two Dianne Warren songs that were nominated in the past two years are among the less inspired nominees I’ve ever seen in this category. And I can think of very few Disney nominated songs as weak as the Toy Story one.
If they want to use this category to attract stars, they clearly missed an opportunity. Beyoncé’s song was awful but it’s still Beyoncé. Toy Story song is worse and was nominated. And If they wanted to have great song numbers, they also missed the opportunity by snubbing Glasgow and Speechless.
You’re spot-on! About everything.
“And If they wanted to have great song numbers, they also missed the opportunity by snubbing Glasgow and Speechless.”
Exactly, Speechless too – love that song!
The problem is that the hostless approach is too dependent on the Song numbers. And that’s precisely the branch of the Academy that makes the most atrocious nomination choices every year.
Eminem’s performance pretty much made it even more clear how an all-time great winner compares to a mediocre lineup.
The two Dianne Warren songs that were nominated in the past two years are among the less inspired nominees I’ve ever seen in this category. And I can think of very few Disney nominated songs as weak as the Toy Story one.
If they want to use this category to attract stars, they clearly missed an opportunity. Beyoncé’s song was awful but it’s still Beyoncé. Toy Story song is worse and was nominated. And If they wanted to have great song numbers, they also missed the opportunity by snubbing Glasgow and Speechless.
I think the studios are happy enough with all of the money that (some) of these high quality films made. That should keep them going.
Oh, and Parasite ended the Palm d’Or Oscar drought dating back to Marty in 1956 (I know the film was released in 1955). This really feels like Charlie Brown finally kicking the football or Ash Kethchum winning a Pokemon league.
Spike lee was asked what he thought of Parasite wins, and he said “it’s good for global cinema.” Perfect answer.
“It is, without a doubt, among the best films that have ever won the top prize at the Oscars”
Let’s wait for dust to settle but on that front Sasha I afraid you not allowed enough time to reflect context you forget….It NOT as great as Sound of Music, All Quiet on the Western Front, How Green was my Valley, the Godfather , The English patient, Dances with Wolves, Silence of the Lambs, and even films been snubbed like: The Dark Knight, Avatar and the Aviator. These are just few examples of film’s that WON best lead or support acting or multiple acting AND others Parasite won. It pays have historic perspective everyone.
I take issue going forward that film wins say win SAG ensemble doesn’t get nominations at least individual acting SAG or Oscar nom get preferenced overruled film’s like Joker, like Ouatih , like Jojo Rabbit film’s had acting nomination which at nomination level put them in company of greats in film.
Parasite without acting suddenly producers award best pic Oscar compensates acting ? Yes occasionally totally fine like rotk sweep year but year like this such stiff competition? In reflecting on Oscar history parasite won’t be amongst all time greats despite fact it achievement meaning to Hollywood is rightfully deeply respected let just cool down bit stop to process. I could list several more truly great film’s won acting and all parasite won.
You’re just mad because Joker (a very mediocre film) lost out on the awards you wanted it to win. Parasite dominates in every way and will be looked at as one of the greats unlike The English Patient which people want to forget knowing Harvey Weinstein was behind it, and it being a mediocre film as well.
Oh if only you learn to read…my other posts context your assumptions where and how I come from missing context. And I just listed few film’s I admit maybe not ALL them best examples but most of them.
But what academy need do moving forward is not sell out value of pga / dga and individual acting winner. There plenty people that dispute your baseless claim of joker being a mediocre film. If it were Phoenix wouldn’t win best actor ..acting hardly remembered in as u say ‘ mediocre ‘ film perspective pls for u sake
“Joker (a very mediocre film)”
Yeah…did you make sure to relay that stance to the Venice Film Festival jury back in September?
No need to even bring snubbed films into this discussion. She didn’t say it was the best film of all time, just the best one to win the top prize. By definition she is excluding films that didn’t win or weren’t nominated.
It seems that the one reliable stat is…
If your film doesn’t have an editing nomination OR an acting nomination, then it’s not going to win Best Picture.
Grand Hotel was the last one in 1933, and that was before the editing category was introduced in 1935.
Exactly. And that’s a long, long time ago.
That’s why I disagree with Sasha sort of that the stats did not apply. They did one way or another.
Exactly. They vary year in, year out, but if you look for it, certain stats/overlaps will arise.
I also figured that when Parasite won Best Director, Picture was then a sure thing. The last film to win BP without an acting, directing, or screenwriting wins was Rebecca in 1941. So that sealed 1917’s fate.
I wasn’t clear-headed enough to think of that in the moment, because Mendes’ loss was so unexpected that I hadn’t actually considered that scenario yet. 🙂
I wish I could split the statue and give the other half to Mendes (as Bong wishes he could split the statue), but as a Filipino, I’m happy for Bong. C’est la vie.
By the way, on non winner Oscar stuff, I loved the stage with those spiral video walls. It reminded me of the 2000 Oscars stage which also had elaborate high definition video walls. And the graphics which had the architecture motif and sliding red, beige, and black rhombuses reminded me of the 2018 Oscars which had sliding red, black, and gold rectangles.
Oh, yeah, the stage was alright – had no problems with that whatsoever. 🙂
Indeed, a tie, like at Critics Choice, would probably be the fairest outcome for these two great directorial achievements… (As is often the case, I end up agreeing with the BFCA’s decisions more than most.)
Yeah – and the strongest ones are the ones that decide pretty much every race…
Stats are stats until they are replaced…by new stats.
Nope – by better stats…
Any combination of director, screenplay, editing and acting snubs at the Oscar has not been overcome for a BP win since 1935 or so except for the Hamlet year. (And the screenplay snub for that one might have had something to do with the fact that, at least according to IMDb, the only credited “writer” for that was Shakespeare…)
Finally all the major categories are gone to the best film of the year by far (with Dolor y Gloria). I think Parasite should also have won editing and should have had a nomination for supporting actor.
The Artist is a French movie, so it’s not accurate to say that Parasite is the first foreign movie to win BP…
The Artist had no language.
It’s not an American movie and it won…
Parasite is the first foreign language movie to win BP. The Artist is not in a foreign language.
The Artist was not in any language.
Isn’t there a line or two of spoken dialog at the end?
Yeah. It’s the Silent Bob of movies.
Both The Artist and Wings used Title Cards in English to convey the communication between the characters.
Damn Parasite with its bad ending kept me out of the 20’s. Finished 19/24 for the night.
That’s what you get for misreading an ending.
Or maybe he just didn’t like it.
And it kept him out of the 20s, as he said.
There’s was nothing to misread.Movie just switches into a slasher horror movie. And what’s with the obsession on smell? Of course he was gonna stink! He was literally swimming in sewer water the night before. And the other dude probably hadn’t showered in weeks. Why get mad if someone thinks he’s smells? The very, very end was also a little meh. It sucked cause the movie was really, really great up until that point.
Because you assume humans are objective beings, who wouldn’t mind if someone thinks they smell bad, simply because they haven’t had a chance to shower all night.
But when your life is in a shithole, your home and all of your belongings have literally just been destroyed, your family is rendered homeless overnight, you suddenly wake up to the fact that the poverty you are mired in is drowning you by the minute and there’s is no redemption, no way out… that’s when a simple gesture from people in privileged positions, who don’t seem to work as hard as you do, appearing to judge and demean you (no matter how subtle it is or whether they really mean to) can drive you over the edge. Who are these rich and privileged people who never had to suffer a day in their lives to judge you as a person, to demean you and to be grossed out or turned off by your smell?
The gulf between the rich and the downtrodden is not simply an economic one. It’s deeply cultural and social. It threatens to tear people apart along divergent economic lines not just because of jealousy but because of bubbling rage at self worth gradually being stripped away.
You’re really challenged to understand what happened, aren’t you? Does it need to be explained for you what was really going on there? Because what you posted above has nothing to do with it.
Agree to disagree. Sorry about that final score, though.
Because you assume humans are objective beings, who wouldn’t mind if someone thinks they smell bad, simply because they haven’t had a chance to shower all night.
But when your life is in a shithole, your home and all of your belongings have literally just been destroyed, your family is rendered homeless overnight, you suddenly wake up to the fact that the poverty you are mired in is drowning you by the minute and there’s is no redemption, no way out… that’s when a simple gesture from people in privileged positions, who don’t seem to work as hard as you do, appearing to judge and demean you (no matter how subtle it is or whether they really mean to) can drive you over the edge. Who are these rich and privileged people who never had to suffer a day in their lives to judge you as a person, to demean you and to be grossed out or turned off by your smell?
The gulf between the rich and the downtrodden is not simply an economic one. It’s deeply cultural and social. It threatens to tear people apart along divergent economic lines not just because of jealousy but because of bubbling rage at self worth gradually being stripped away.
I don’t mind if people did not like Parasite as long as it we don’t resort to bad faith takes (Diego Ortiz’s opinion I can understand, FWIF).
Nuff said