20 years ago I predicted Ang Lee’s Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon would win Best Picture and I learned a hard lesson that helped me not predict Roma to win last year. And that reason, which you already know if you’ve been reading this site, is that it has films in other languages have their own category thus enabling voters to spread the wealth. Well, even though they did what they could do with Crouching Tiger and Roma, they choose to go all in on Oscar Sunday. They finally found a film they believed was better than any of the other movies up for the top award. To my mind, after that, I think they ought to obliterate the category. It’s antiquated anyway and it’s unfair to the other international nominees when a film is in both categories because it automatically becomes the winner (it would have won anyway). Either which way, times have certainly changed. In good ways, in bad ways.
It is by far more fun to come off of an Oscar year feeling like a winner because you picked the right movie in a hard year to call. Bragging rights are part of the high of being in the Oscar world, especially you are a Type A personality where it REALLY MATTERS. Of course, it doesn’t really matter. None of it matters. Unless, to some out there, it might. And to some out there, it does. But in the grand scheme of things, no matter what happens at the Oscars there is still a real world to confront with real problems. And so, after another year, we retreat into our corners and go into hibernation for 7 months until the next Oscar season rolls around.
Now’s a great time to thank the readers, many of you who have been coming back for 20 years to read what I and others have to say, and to let us know what you have to say. To thank you for entering our contests, tolerating our ads, and devoting your time and effort to contribute to what has to be the most prolific and articulate movie comment section anywhere online. Thank you for the kind letters you send, the thoughtful corrections when we make mistakes, for often having our backs when we find ourselves in a terrible fix, as we sometimes do. Thank you for reading, listening, debating, and predicting along with us these many years.
I have spent half of my life doing this strange job that I somehow invented for myself back in 1999. I’ve watched an entire industry bloom around me and I know that it’s probably time for me to step aside and let the many new voices on the Oscar scene take over. I’m not quite ready to do that but I’m closer than I used to be. I’m not sure I have anything to say about the Oscars with the way they’re starting to change, the factions they’re trying to satisfy, and their pursuit of new objectives they appear to be concerned with. I really only know how to cover the Oscars one way: by focusing on the qualities that add up to the highest achievements in film—without factoring in what sometimes seems to be their quixotic desire to right the wrongs of society (which they can’t). The art of film matters to me a lot, even if I tend to be more focused on studio films than any other kind. I learned to love movies when American cinema was in a legendary golden age. I grew up during the culmination of New Hollywood, watching movies five miles wide on enormous screens in movie theaters only Hollywood could build. Maybe some of that thrill wasn’t film as art. Maybe it was filmgoing as an unforgettable experience.
But by far the best thing about running this site for half of my adult life has been interfacing with you, dear readers. We’ve been through a lot together. The Lord of the Rings series. Brokeback Mountain. The Dark Knight, which led to the ballot expansion. We were on the frontlines of that one, weren’t we. We only have ourselves to blame. We’ve seen miraculous things together, like the first woman to win Best Picture and Best Director, the first film by a black director to Best Picture. And now, the first film in a language other than English to win Best Picture. We’ve somehow managed to survive html to blogs, forums to comment sections. Comment sections to social media. I don’t know about you but when I want to remember my life I just have to remember what won Best Picture that year and it puts it all into perspective for me.
I do feel, and have always felt, that this website has been a communal experience of give and take between writers and readers. Closing out this year, I have to thank all of those who have contributed to this site, in addition to you readers. The first of those is our fearless editor, Ryan Adams. To quote a line from Fried Green Tomatoes—there are angels out there masquerading as people and Ryan is one of those. No one else knows each and every one of you in the comment sections like he does. No one cares as much as about the integrity of the many voices that pass through here as he does. He’s made me a better writer, a better person and by god, one day he will make me a better tweeter. So thank you, Ryan.
We said goodbye to our good friend Jazz Tangcay who is a shooting star over at Variety. We all miss her around here, social butterfly that she is, and we miss her on our podcasts. That was a huge loss but she is thriving. Thank you, Jazz. Then there is our good friend Clarence Moye who has now stepped up a bit to fill Jazz’s shoes and this year came out to LA to cover the Globes and the Oscars, and even attended parties and spoke to actual celebrities. Clarence is a great guy with great instincts who does double duty as co-editor of ADTV. So thank you Clarence! And speaking of ADTV, co-editor Megan McLachlan, Joey Moser, and David Phillips are the most prolific team of writers that also have now come over to the film side. David has his own fan base on Twitter and every time he posts a new piece they tweet “A new Phillips just dropped!” Megan, who is secretly a hard-hitting journalist and not destined for puff pieces (It’s true, Megan) has done great work this year, as has Joey. Thank you Megan and Joey and David. And then there is Jalal Haddad, whom I’ve had the pleasure of meeting and hanging out with a few times. You wouldn’t know this about him—actually this is true about all of the ADTV crew, but he is funny. Really really wickedly funny. Thank you Jalal for putting up with me after two bottles of wine. Most recently we’ve welcomed Kevin Dillion, Shadan Larki, and Ben Morris into the AD fold, and it’s a testament to their talent, wit, and dedication to see them fit right in like members of our family. Thank you, Shadan, Kevin, and Ben.
And then there’s Marshall Flores who somehow manages to do contest forms when we aren’t even looking and is always available to proofread my sloppy copy in a timely fashion, which is always appreciated. But you probably don’t know that he is also a reliable texter when I’ve forgotten something, or when a candidate for president is about to drop out. You’re a good friend, Marshall, thank you.
Oh what would we do without Rob who runs the annual Awards Daily Oscar ballot – which is a lot harder than it looks. He barely had time for it this year but made time anyway. Thank you Rob. And Dora Kappou who has continued to appear as yet another angel to update our FYC gallery. Thank you Dora. And Tony Su who covers Cannes and Venice, making Awards Daily global. His reviews are always a pleasure to read. Thank you, Tony. And Paddy Mullholland, who covers the London Film Festival. Paddy can pack more sly insight into a single sentence than some writers do in five paragraphs. Thank you, Paddy.
We have lots of voices that pop in and out, who send us articles and stats and information that is always helpful and always appreciated. Thank you to everyone out there who does that. We do read all your messages and often share them with each other, even if we sometimes might not write back.
And with that we say goodbye until it all starts back up again. It’s been a great 20, Oscarwatchers. Let’s see what’s coming next.
Ok everyone looking back there is one other film i deeply deeply regret not seeing in cinemas and i have to ask everyone so far i nearly half way through the so far absolutely mesmerising fabulous Rocketman- It just seems to me especially given Elton John won his second oscar for best song…and yet the film the only one thus far made about the revolutionary eccentric modern rock pioneer superstar never got nominated for best picture and particularly not even at very very least no,mination for Taron Edgerton who has to be said was deeply unlucky to not get oscar nominations oor a sag nomination.
IT seems to me after yet another underwhelming oscar season now past but looking at year that was..once again in context of chosen films nominated for best picture the Academy leave a lot to be desired and this trend and patterns if it continues will only see at BEST a flatlining in future audience ratings and a host is NOT a silver bullet like some are sayting..as i said before the ‘3 year cycles’ rule i call it – oscar nomnated for best picture the films that are largely dominating public ocnversation, performing well in box office and have excellent critical acclaim and are rare in their own right.
And it seems to me Rocketman is part of the alarming growing list of films that from my recollection deserved more than no of others to be nominated for best picture.
Even without seeing all of Rocketman i can tell this is masterfully made and bold as it tells parts of the story through songs- not derivative dialogue- and yet Elton’s evolutionary story from child to adult superstar so far is easy to follow and brilliantly written.
So 2 questions who here felt Rocketman was undermined by the awards season ? and who felt the studio should have done a late year release in shortened stupidly shorterned oscar season?
So far these are list of films that are snubbed and it has to be said it takes the shine off whatever very shallow limited success the academy has become in recent years to viewing public the film goers that really make or break fortunes of film industry.
This is the list and boy is it growing of snubs for best piture:
1. Rocketman
2. Avengers Endgame
3. Knives Out
4. Just Mercy
5. Uncut Gems
6. Pain and Glory
7. Mission: Impossible- Fallout
8. Richard Jewell
Who feels all or most of these should contended for best picture>?
I strongly feel that if the awards season and academy and guilds took into accoutn even the ultra early release films from last year and assuming the film studios that did films like ‘Rocketman’
This is how i feel the now past oscar noms shouold looked like:
1. Rocketman- 12 nominations inc best picture and best actor and supp actor, director, script, tech and arts
2. Avengers: Endgame- 12 nominations inc picture, director, script, actor, tech and arts
3. Joker- same 11 nominations as academy went for
4. 1917- 10 nominations same as what academy went for
5. Once Upon a time in Hollywood- 10 nominations same as what academy went for
6. Ford vs. Ferrari- 8 nominations- inc cinematography, tech, arts, screenplay
7. Knives Out- 8 nominations inc picture, screenplay, arts, actor
8. Just Mercy- 7 nominations inc picture, screenplay, acting and supp acting
9. Mission: Impossible- Fallout 5 nominations inc picture, editing, tech, screenplay
10. Parasite- 5 nominations — editing
everyone’s thoughts on my alternative nominee list? academy could have had all time absolute blockbuster of an oscar season and build up to it dont underestimate public attention such a list would recieve isn’t it time going forward academy stop taking a ‘hal empty/ half full half baked approach to awards season?
Been a big fan since 2005 or so? Sounds about right, I remember the name change seeming so traumatizing. I’m at the point where I refer to you as “my friend Sasha says…” because we’re basically friends, since you’re my #1 Oscar ballot advisor and awards statistician. Congrats on 20 years, here’s to as many more as you want!
Thank you Sasha! One of only a few sites I have bookmarked on all my browsers and something I instantly type in the URL search bar. I’ve enjoyed your essays, commentaries, predictions- and most of all, you passion for movies in general. You don’t just talk about movies. You talk about the LIFE in the movies, and how it relates to our own. A shout out to Ryan as well. Always a pleasure to talk to you. I was too chicken to do a predictions video this year (which is funny, since I got 19/24 right vs last year’s 18/24- BUT I got Green Book right last year!). I promise next year, no matter what, I will make another one.
I look forward to more years.
The trick is not minding, but DAMN did I mind this year!!!
Congrats on 20 years, and I look forward to sharing another year with you guys. Sasha, you’re a great voice, and we need you. 🙂 You “liked” a comment of mine on FB on Mark Johnson’s wall, and I was sooooo excited. It was about the choice between Quentin and Bong in screenplay, how it was up in the air, but I ultimately did go with my gut and choose correctly.
Thank you so much to everyone on the AD team I’ve been with you since the beginning. And thank you to everyone who comments on this site from all over the world I love reading what you have to say and it’s just such a great community to be a part of.
It was a great season I think the best year for movies in a really long time!
Can’t wait to see what happens next year!
Congrats on 20 years! And as you once said, the Oscars aren’t over until the girl from the trailer park thanks her best friend and publicist…..
Sasha! I’ve been reading your page since I was in high school. I so appreciate your work, it takes me out of my ridiculous life, much like the cinema often does. It reminds me that there are so many films out there that I still need to see. It reminds me that cinema is evolving, that people are evolving, that the way we think about film as art is changing. The sight is about the Oscars, yes, but at the end of each season, it reminds me that its honestly just about a bunch of people, making movies, watching movies. Telling stories, talking about stories, talking about issues (representation in film etc) talking about what it means to be human, to suffer, to hurt, to beat the odds. Anyway, thanks for all of your work and I love the site, and I’ll keep going back to it as long as I’m around and it’s around. PS The Lord of the Rings is my favorite BP winner. 🙂
Awards Daily remains my favorite Oscar site. Much love to you and the gang!
Thanks Sasha and team for as usual having the best Oscars site there is.
What a wild ride this season has been. Going into the major awards, I had little interest in the season, I disliked OUATIH and Marriage Story and didn’t love Irishman. Parasite I loved but it seemed like the critics darling that would win foreign film only.
Then 1917 hit GG and I saw it and it knocked my socks off. The trick is not minding but I did.
But I forgot one thing. The Oscars have never been about what’s best. It’s political. It’s about what’s popular.
Parasite is the best BP winner in years no doubt, but it won partly because Roma lost last year, AMPAS were being criticised for female directors missing this year, Bong and his actors were adorable, who could resist right?
Best picture always seemed close but best director wasn’t. Mendes won all the precursors. That best director prize seemed very political and that stung.
At the end of the day, 1917, like most masterpieces, joins the list of the best films to lose BP.
To those here who loved 1917 as much as I did, let’s enjoy it’s 7 BAFTAs and it’s big wins at PGA, DGA and GG. It achieved extraordinary things for such a late release, and has done huge box office.
Whilst we always hope AMPAS will give our favourites validation, we are almost always let down.
Watching the Oscars politics and process is very interesting but it is much easier when you don’t love a frontrunner. Having been burnt by The Revenant and 1917, I seriously wonder whether to stop following so closely.
I’m sure I won’t be able to resist…
And a final recommendation for those who haven’t seen the BEST film of 2019, watch The Nightingale. It’s extraordinary.
I feel your pain. My favorite movie of the year was Little Women. But I also LOVED 1917. And I admired/respected Parasite an awful lot — one of the best movies of the year. Great filmmaking, performances, et al. That said, I wasn’t wild about the last 10-15 minutes which brought my rating from an A to an A-; still, thought it was great. This was a year full of great films. But for whatever reason, of the films contending for the big one, I simply loved 1917. I was shocked, but pleasantly surprised by the Globes wins. PGA, DGA, BAFTA (7 wins) … I thought I was in a dream.
Then came the Oscars. I am fine with Parasite winning Best Picture, as farrrrrrr many inferior films have won. This film is deserving. And who couldn’t be happy for Bong and his team? All of that said, I was disappointed. And more than that, I thought was cruel that fate had it that Bong was holding 4 trophies and Mendes held nothing after a season where I felt he rightfully deserved that Director win – or at least a Picture win if he was going to be shocked in Director. So yeah, good season. Excellent winners. I just was pulling for Mendes to get an Oscar somewhere. :/
I feel your pain. My favorite movie of the year was Little Women. But I also LOVED 1917. And I admired/respected Parasite an awful lot — one of the best movies of the year. Great filmmaking, performances, et al. That said, I wasn’t wild about the last 10-15 minutes which brought my rating from an A to an A-; still, thought it was great. This was a year full of great films. But for whatever reason, of the films contending for the big one, I simply loved 1917. I was pleasantly surprised by the Globes wins. PGA, DGA, BAFTA (7 wins) … I thought I was in a dream.
Then came the Oscars. I am fine with Parasite winning Best Picture, as farrrrrrr many inferior films have won. This film is deserving. And who couldn’t be happy for Bong and his team? All of that said, I was disappointed. And more than that ……. I thought it was cruel that fate would have it that Bong was holding 4 trophies and Mendes held nothing after a season where I felt he rightfully deserved that Director win – or at least a Picture win if he was going to be shocked in Director. So yeah, good season. Excellent winners. I just was pulling for Mendes to get an Oscar somewhere. :/
Bong not only has two more Oscars than Mendes, but he now has as many Oscars in one night as Tarantino, the guy who prominently hyped up Bong’s films here in the western hemisphere and who won his (all in Original Screenplay) over two-and-a-half decades. Some could even argue that Tarantino’s trio of statuettes served as consolation prizes for his films not winning in Picture or Director.
No disrespect to Bong, but I really hope that Tarantino and Mendes each get at least one more Oscar before their careers end—Tarantino especially, given his warning that he’ll only make one other feature after this.
Now that I think about it, it seems that every time Tarantino comes out with another critical and popular smash, the conversation about Best Picture always ends up at “Well, he’s probably going to win Best Original Screenplay anyway, so we can just nominate him in Best Picture and Best Director without giving him those as well.” And even that conclusion didn’t help him this time for Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood (in my top 5 for 2019), nor was he able to overcome both not being a WGA member and thus not getting nominated on top of the goodwill towards Bong & Co. (Speaking of which, how did Bong and Han Jin-won get nominated and win at WGA?)
Either this hesitation towards filmmakers like Quentin Tarantino, Wes Anderson, Paul Thomas Anderson, David Fincher, Christopher Nolan, and now Greta Gerwig will build towards that perfect production from each one of them to win Best Picture and other Oscars in the perfect year, or they’ll all fade away in the eyes and minds of the Academy as mere groomsmen and bridesmaids. (Also, I guess Alfonso Cuarón and Ang Lee are now the new George Stevens, winning two Directing Oscars without their films+producers winning Best Picture. I won’t mind that much if neither ones tastes Oscar glory again.)
Now that I think about it, it seems that every time Tarantino comes out with another critical and popular smash, the conversation about Best Picture always ends up at “Well, he’s probably going to win Best Original Screenplay anyway, so we can just nominate him in Best Picture and Best Director without giving him those as well.” And even that conclusion didn’t help him this time for Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood (in my top 5 for 2019), nor was he able to overcome both not being a WGA member and thus not getting nominated on top of the goodwill towards Bong & Co. (Speaking of which, how did Bong and Han Jin-won get nominated and win at WGA?)
Either this hesitation towards filmmakers like Quentin Tarantino, Wes Anderson, Paul Thomas Anderson, David Fincher, Christopher Nolan, and now Greta Gerwig will build towards that perfect production from each one of them to win Best Picture and other Oscars in the perfect year, or they’ll all fade away in the eyes and minds of the Academy as mere groomsmen and bridesmaids. (Also, I guess Alfonso Cuarón and Ang Lee are now the new George Stevens, winning two Directing Oscars without their films+producers winning Best Picture. I won’t mind that much if neither ones tastes Oscar glory again.)
It was my pleasure Sasha. I wish I had more time to give a robust simulated ballot.
I think after 20 years, I thought I would rank the last 20 Best Pic winners:
Moonlight
Parasite
Hurt Locker
No Country
Departed
12 Years*
Artist
Shape of Water*
Spotlight*
Lord of the Rings
Gladiator*
Chicago
King’s Speech*
Beautiful Mind*
Million Dollar Baby*
Slumdog Millionaire*
Argo*
Green Book*
Crash*
Birdman*
(* – Indicates not my choice for that year)
if i may take your cue of your ranking list thanx to you for inspiration i do mine:
“I think after 20 years, I thought I would rank the last 20 Best Pic winners” from best to least appealing:
1. Lord of the Rings Return of the King
2. The Kings Speech
3. Gladiator
4. The Green Book
5. The Hurt Locker
6. The Departed
7. Chicago )-(
8. Parasite (never in any decade have i had a foreign film in top 20 let alone top 10) )-(
9. Argo
10. The Shape of Water )-(
11. Moonlight )-(
12. The Artist )-(
13. Spotlight )-(
14. No Country for Old Men (–)
15. Slumdog Millionaire (–)
16. 12 years a Slave
17. A Beautiful Mind (–)
18. Birdman )-(
19. Million Dollar Baby (–)
20. Crash (–)
(–)- denotes the films i disagree the academy chose for best picture that year- and i do NOT ACCEPT
)-( – denotes films that i personally believe shouldn’t won best picture but can understand why academy did and accept that
My comment is sitting in moderation ?
Thanks for letting me know, Andrew. Found your comment and rescued it!
I’m battling a terminal illness. I love movies and this site helps me to get my mind off things. It’s really a cool and fascinating community you’ve built. Thank you!!!
I’m so sorry to hear that, I’ve recently lost a loved one and distractions are so, so good. I hope this site and films in general gives you much comfort.
Hope you are doing ok. Good luck!
You’re kind. I’m doing OK. Didn’t want to be dramatic. Just expressing gratitude for the site!
Thank you, Sasha! I’ve been following your site for 5 years and I always enjoy reading your blog.
Congrats on 20 years! I’ve been visiting AD nearly that entire time. I don’t comment much but I love coming here. I’ll never forget I emailed you Sasha years ago and you responded and that meant a lot. Thanks!
Bring on the next 20! Thanks, Sasha, Ryan and everyone at AD for another great awards season. The break has come. Time to catch up on the films of 2019 I haven’t been able to watch as yet and form my official top 20. I don’t like to rush it until I feel I’ve seen enough.
Catch you all soon! https://media3.giphy.com/media/VmzI60RQG0fuw/giphy.gif
Time to take the usual break… Y’all have a great spring and summer! 🙂 I’ll be reading and replying the things I didn’t get a chance to earlier (including stuff in this thread, when I get to it – I like to go chronologically), but, apart from that, I’m officially on break. Peace!
I’m gonna go back to catching Pokemon in Pokemon Go and job hunting. Gotta catcha ya later.
In the meantime enjoy this gif..
https://media.giphy.com/media/EmAFKEpZ4JDos/giphy.gif
Oh, here’s a list of some movies that define my tastes. It’s a mix of unusual, popular, and artistic choices. And they aren’t necessarily in order. Se ya!
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d34fbb4c097647db25812e48409febdfc53fa72fbcd6dff4740e9b560aae81e9.jpg
I mean, I love SO many of those movies!… 🙂 Slumdog, Up, Inside Out, The Sound of Music, Inception, Dunkirk, La La Land, even Wonder Woman – just loved all of these… There are some I don’t like so much too, of course – would have been weird if there hadn’t been – like Black Panther or Todo sobre mi madre (the latter of which I saw when I was a bit too young, and might like more or even a lot more if I rewatched it). I guess I was mixed on The Artist and If Beale Street Could Talk – definitely didn’t love them. Not seen Detective Pikachu and Real Women Have Curves – nor Frida, amazingly, even though I remember wanting to at some point -, and it’s been too long since I saw The Little Mermaid for me to remember much about it (I seem to have liked it a fair bit, though, given how I rated it – same goes for Who Framed Roger Rabbit).
Thanks for another great season Sasha! I hope you can hold on for a long as possible!
Now it starts all over again! It doesn’t look like there are too many options out of Sundance (besides documentaries of course) but still we have Minari and The Father that some people say could do something… Then today we got an amazing looking trailer for The French Dispatch. I have my fingers crossed! I look forward to exploring so much of what 2020 has to offer later in the season but for now I’ll start taking it easy at this site for a few months and see y’all again later in the year!
Sasha, thank YOU. I have been with you since you began this venture, and I will be there until you decide you’ve had enough. I still have the Moulin Rouge FYC ads you mailed me way back when. You’re a daily, many times hourly destination for me, and I’ve learned so much and shared so much of our mutual live of film and filmmaking. Thank you!
soooo, when are we going to get a thread for super early predictions? 🙂
Happy 20th anniversary!
Presented without comment:
How the Academy’s International Membership May Have Helped ‘Parasite’ Make Oscars History https: // variety. com /2020 /film /news /academy-international-membership-parasite-oscars-1203501788/
Obliterating the foreign film category!? I’d like other readers to illuminate me on whether the PROS really outweigh the CONS here. Yikes.
I’d say it can be up for debate once we have two international films up for Best Picture. How great would that be
It almost happened last year with two foreign language films having the Director nomination.
20 Years! What a milestone! Big Congrats! This place is always wild and addictive during the Oscars season!
Re: IFF category. I don’t think they should get rid of it, they just have to change the rules. The category is there to give obscure foreign films exposure. Eligible films should be films submitted by their country that only have had distribution in their respective country/outside of the U.S. Movies that already have released in the U.S., like Parasite and Roma should only be eligible for the main category. The eligible IFFs can be released in the U.S. after the Oscars or at least after the nominations.
Thank you for another great season and happy 20th anniversary. This account is new but I’ve been following and commenting in this site for five years with another account that I’ve lost. I never get tired of here, even if I sometimes disagree with your opinion.
See you all at the next season. I’ll probably still keep commenting here but it’ll be much more rare.
“To my mind, after that, I think they ought to obliterate the category.”
Oh, what a huge, HUGE mistake this would be. Best International Film is the greatest push for little cinema industries’ all around the world. Not to mention the most important transition from festivals to Hollywood. Villeneuve, Iñarritu and Lanthimos wouldn’t have made it without their nominations for, respectively, Incendies, Amores perros and Dogtooth.
However, I do think that foreign films with a US release shouldn’t compete in the category, as they can reach more nominations on their own.
That might be a good compromise.
If anything, best International Film should be expanded to 10 like BP. Should have been done years ago
Thanks for your expert analysis, Sasha, and thanks for making this website available to folks who love film …. there’s nothing else like it ..BRAVO !
And thank you, for all that you do Sasha! I found your site in high school, around the time of Moulin Rouge and Chicago shaking up the awards races; I was fascinated by the resurgence of musicals and pleased to see the critics on board, and inevitably Oscar. Since then I’ve been hooked.
I’ll always treasure your podcast episodes where you broke down each year, explaining the politics and other influences that led to one film winning over another. People say to me “I still can’t believe Judy Garland never won an Oscar!” to which I reply “hmmm I can. No one liked her”. And so it goes.
Congratulations with the anniversary! Sending my respect and gratitude for all the analysis, trivia ana opinions – probably the best among of all awards columnists – Scott Feinberg isn’t even close!
Speaking of International Film category, probably such on opinion is unpopular, but I convinced that foreign films should’t compete in Best Picture category. The logic is that they just create an unhealthy competition in both categories – in foreign all other nominees are becoming not so relevant and in the main one most of foreigners are just for visibility, not for a real purpose. And I think it is okay, if American Academy film honor only American-produced (or at least english-speaking) films and won’t have any biases such as “i wont vote for the same movie in both categories” or “i don’t like subtitles and stuff”. Lets honor foreign directors, actors, Screenwriters everywhere, but Pictures should be separated.
The Academy may move up international feature closer to the end of ceremony, make a big deal of it with special screenings through the season and really award International Filmmaking and not just choose one most popular film and suck all blood from it. Cause now its like “lets put one foreign film in Best Picture and pretend to be a really international award”. Its not really helpful anyway, while many worthy American films could take it spot.
Why shouldn’t the Academy honor a foreign film at Best Picture? If the film is better than any “American or english speaking film” why not honor it overall as Best Picture? If anything, maybe don’t have a film in both categories and let have the producers pick where they want it to be, much like when they put a leading character in supporting. But it should really be allowed in both categories.
Well, hah, I’ve said why they shouldn’t, but gonna try be more specific:
– one foreign film in BP category in some way undermines others in its own category
– this one foreign film have little chances to win and only creates a visibility of an “international award” – I am sure there could be more than one film to include in PB. So, either do it an international award, or stop pretend that it is.
– Parasite’s win is not really representative as look at many previous who didn’t. This year other nominees were just weaker, so Parasite easily thrived – however we don’t know its winning margin.
– All in all, I just want international films to be represented better – and its not going to improve, if there will be just one spot which always be reserved for a foreign film just to create a visibility of a competition.
How does it undermine? And if one foreign film is nominated, it has the same chance as any of the other best picture nominees. Maybe down the road more than one foreign film will be in for best picture. Until then, they should keep doing it. Representation is just fine for foreign films in the academy.
I also would like to see more international representation in Awards, but I just don’t see it coming in the nearest future. From 1956 to 1976 there was a foreign film nominated in Best Screenplay every year, 5 in 1980-1990 and 7 in 2000-2010. In 2010-2019 we have 4, so I don’t see an improvement. The Academy is still bias.
Are they biased? Or do many of them not get seen in time? Or maybe they just don’t feel they are better than the films that got nominated. I always try to see at least 2 of the foreign films nominated and sometimes i barely get to. Not many of them get released here in the states nor do they make enough money when they do. Until they are widely released here in the states, it just won’t happen.
Maybe, maybe and for sure we need more screenings and promotion otherwise only Cannes/Venice/Toronto favorites will keep being in spotlight.
It would already be an improvement if the Cannes/Venice/Toronto foreign-language favourites got more spotlight in the awards race.
So i gonna kick- start the big issues going into next awards season as we herald in beginning of a all conquering dmoinant 3rd decade for awardsdaily.com
These are the issues i predict acaddemy simply can’t to ignore- i try to narrow it down to main issues that everyone concerned about:
1. The preferential ballot- is becoming too much like randomized lotto and it invites politics into it as it operates more like a voting pattern at a polling booth than proper traditional considered approach that used to hold more appeal for film going public- namely quantity and qwuality of nominations to have 2nd most nominated film win on average and 3rd most win if it damn great enough to do so – case has not been made of effectiveness and justice dealt to all nominees with the ballot i propose simplify it. if academy insist keeping it.
2. Can the academy afford to disregard the significance of the PGA and DGA winner come the eventual oscar winners? its becoming a habit bit too much now every second year or bit more than that – but not much more where the Academy go against their own Guilds- and they put far too much stock in the writers guild over directors and producers- whats the best if this continues some of big studios will get really pissed off and individual filmmakers may feel no choice but to flock to filming for online streaming services if guilds that honor them do not occur in oscar outcomes.
3. GENRE FUKIN DISCRIMINATION- IT just outrageous isn’t it? FACT: yes it was 60 years foreign films have been recognized with academy but it actually a case of: NEVER has a science themed fact/ fiction film irrespective how popular how widely acclaimed many havbe been pretty much since 2001 a space oddysey blew the world away and star wars did it at a pop culture level- but for all innovation that this genre has given unlike foreign films where their filmmakers have won best director plenty in last decade or producer or screenwriter and now picture guess what? a science fiction/ fact genre has NEVER won a best pic oscar it an absoiute disgrace- Then you have the Espionage/ thriller combined genre where only French Connection won that once in life of 50 plus years of influential espionage films. Comedy as in romance comedy or original comedy genre hardly ever wins and really not much more than foreign film winning best pic for that matter too. Industrial story’s that long been undervalued coupled with industrial biopic type drama- like Ford vs. Ferrari has been grossly undervalued yet they are amongst most complex films to make convincingly cos of huge depth and breadth of history underpinning such stories and ensuring characters in these movies are as memorable as the event. I think not sure again only one oscar winner in this genre combo too. While i not a fan of Horror fact is that when made very well as it been last few years moe often than not as far as oscar nominations or critical acclaim are concerned…but horror genre heralded revolutionaries such as Hitchcock for instance. The old style period action epic dramas- they have won once in bout 30-35 years Gladiator being last one. before that was a loong time. the War genre..the genre that changed face of filmmaking defined how films are made that incorporate action and high realism in their drama and setting and moments- and yet the Academy blinked on 1917- which took war genre to whole new ball game not seen before way it was done, and for all that appallingly, the academy who original oscar winner when it was founded in 1929 that first oscar ceremony was ‘wings’ the planes in WWII have academy forgotten value of war genre? recognizing it as technical is simply not acceptable…not when prior to 1917 war genre influenced decade after major war film events release- like Saving Private Ryan, and then platoon last war film recognized before that, but so m,any that deserved to win oscar have not- –and it time for the academy to change their attitude to all these genres they unjustifiably discriminated against and start giving them best picture wins so long as they are good enough to do so to beat the competition.
Then of course next year i just love for academy to finally give best picture to the 25th Bond- the ultimate espionage genre foundations of the transitional hollywood old style era to modern era and present day that seldom produces a flop and produced many unforgettable moments and scenes and innovation in action sequences for that genre replicated to lesser success by bond’s filmmakers peers in other genres- to lesser effect, 25 years if character and intrigue and moments and it time on that final point for highest consistent quality of franchise some of them not all to get recognition for defining generations of film-goers such as James Bond 007- and then of course you have hybrid multi layered unique genres like ‘TENET’ which i love Noilan to get oscar reocgnition too..
4. Start considering expanding non- best picture categories to 6 minimum rather than 5 to balance out expanded best pic category which should alternate depending on quality of either 8 minimum or 10 as specific no of best pic nominations. Then expand the guilds to reflect same no of nominations for best pic and non pic categories too.
5. Keep the politics to the minimum- not just by altering preferential ballot but public dont like that once revered and respect awards ceremony celebrating finest achievement in artistic cinematic achievement – that too much for lot of people’s liking in last 12 years some best pic winners have been decided as a reactionary response to trump- or prior to this the cheering obama crowd- it just gives more reason for traditional demographic that used to tune in to oscars to abandon this sinking ship- but academy can right the wrongs if they think it through goring forwared.
6. Lock out netflix- until netflix and other streaming services that aspire to compete with the academy it time for them to accept after ‘Roma’ failed to win best pic last year and this year only 1-2/record 20+oscar noms for single entity that streaming services need to accept it all good to have internet streaming but to credibly compete and one day win in oscars you just cant disregard minimize accessibility of non- streaming subscribers who overwhelmingly still prefer to go to movies on big screen.
7. Block out the white noise internet savages- by that i mean those activists who seek to intimidate bully and bribe academy- abuse academy- not everyone online does but there are clearly certain parts online that whip up excessive rage to ensnare academy to get their attention- there no denying this year was small factor but thankfully not biggest factor but still academy like last year showing bit weak resolve in resisting the internet crowd..and it yet to be proven that key demographic the academy have all but lost in ratings….is cos they flock to the internet there no proof of this so until then academy would be wise to ignore white noise on the net and start to finally pay attention to what people at the proper box office are saying and raving about.
This is exactly why both Joker and Ford vs. Ferrari were hard done by academy distract themselves and divide their focus across too many different aspects of culture and society when they should be thinking with clear focus and clear heads – maybe if they do that all above will be fixed then ratigns will improve big time…
Next year there are 3 films thus far i keen on seeing get nominated for best picture and i hugely confident none of them will fail to be big hit with critics atm:
1. Greyhound
2. Tenet
3. Bond 25- ‘no time to die’
Thanks for all your hard work, Sasha, and for your love of films! I agree that the Best International Film category should be ditched. Also, the sound categories should be combined, Best Original Song eliminated and acting ensemble and stunt categories should be added.
You’re not allowed to quit, Kthx! Year in and out, YOUR voice is the constant, even as the metrics of measuring quality films and strong contenders evolve. We all love to predict the winners and toot our own horns when we predict upset noms and wins and unpredictable snubs. But this has always been about more than getting it right. It’s about watching history unfold, about seeing what wins and accepting it and justifying it afterward. Too often we penalize and criminalize those whose opinions differ from our own, or from the general consensus. We impugn those for simply having and expressing an opinion. Not every race has to be about politics or social justice over merit, yet these factors are always inextricably at play. I for one am thrilled to live to see a foreign film, which in fact was the best film overall, for a change, win Best Picture—even if the win wasn’t all about merit. Even with the rushed calendar and predictable acting winners desensitizing our anticipation and enjoyment of the actual award shows, the rich discourse on this site has never faltered. Looking forward to next year!
I hope this doesn´t end in the spam filter, because I want to post a youtube-link, but this is really amazing, the live reactions of a korean family on Oscar night: 🙂
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izs1PYLn0sw
Don’t you mean “the live reactions of a Korean daughter on Oscar night”, lol? :b
Congratulations to Sasha and all AD team! You always did an amazing job and I have been following you since the begining. Looking foward to the next Awards Season. Honestly, I liked the shorter season. Late February or early March is too much to wait, mainly when you are rooting for someone in special. I am very, very happy that Laura Dern is an Oscar Winner. I love Laura! And for the next year, I really hope Glenn Close finally wins her overdue Oscar. Netflix will push hard and if they place her as Supporting, This can really happen. Talking about next year, both Close, Pfeiffer, Bening, Weaver and Adams have films that can result in Oscar nominations. As for the results this year, I am mostly happy. I was rooting for “1917”, but I am happy with “Parasite” winning too. “Parasite” is the anti “Green Book”. I think this is one of the reasons the film won. And considering this, next year I expect something “anti Parasite” (if you understand me) to win the Oscar. I think it will be a film with a more traditional profile (and an American film). As for the cerimony, this is something that they really need to improve. I mean, you are a producer. You are given the free card, all the options on the table, resources, and you choose to put a presenter to present another presenter, an excessive number of (boring) songs, you choose – in a surprise number – to bring Eminen back to sing a song no one cares, and while trying to get audience, you open the show with a musical number that basically screams “you are racist”. I don’t get the point. If was not for the acting wins and mainly the Parasite factor, this would have been a complete disaster. AND THE CERIMONY NEEDS A HOST!
THANK YOU!!! Thank you to team AD! What a season. I miss you guys too. This you know. Thank you for everything and for giving me a voice and a platform to grow. YOU ARE THE BEST MENTOR a girl like me could have had. Thank you RYAN! THANK YOU SASHA!! xoxox
Congratulations for the 20th Anniversary to all who make Awards Daily. I’ve been a reader for just thee years now and only this year I’ve started participating in the forums but it’s always fun to come back here for awards season and read the discussions here and especially Sasha’s thinkpieces about the movies and the awards circuit itself as they are always interesting and insightful. So thank you Sasha and all the AD staff, and everyone else in the AD community as well. See y’all later!
Thank you so much Sasha and all of the AD team!! I’ve only been joining the comment section since last year although I’ve been following the Oscar and this site since the 88th Oscar. You guys (including many visitors of this website) have taught me how to look at the race from the perspective of experts, what stat to consider, who or which has the narrative, who or which is more likeable, and that can be confirmed by the increasing number of correct predictions I made for each year (well that depends on the state of the race too; each year is different). I also love how we can discuss a lot of things about movies, the acting, writing, editing, cinematography, and all of that stuff. I’m really grateful that I found this site and that kinda makes me feel there is something worth waiting for each year.
I’m not really sure whether to hate or love this short award calendar, but I am so happy that my favourite movie of the year actually wins BP. If the reminder proves strong (that previous year’s race predicts next year’s race), I just wish for the best next year. I’m feeling optimistic tho.
Oh, and the trailer for The French Dispatch just dropped. Impressions??
Thank you Sasha for everything!
I think we should NOT get rid of International Feature category. It is almost always the best category and it introduces films to audiences they normally would not see. Parasite is an exception.
I never thought that PARASITE being nominated in both categories was a hinderance, in the age of the preferential ballot. Voters would have had to vote against it (rank it low in their ballot) if they wanted to ding it, which clearly wasn’t the case. Last year, they did, but it was an attack on Netflix and not the idea of awarding a foreign film.
This year, it was never below #3 on most ballots. It probably won on the first round, even.
1st round? I doubt it, though we’ll never know, will we?
Obsessing over movie award season is what literally gets me through the long winter here in MN. And this site, along with GoldDerby, are the biggest part of it.
Thank you Sasha and the rest of the AD crew. It’s been a wonderful 20 years.
So when does it start back again? May with Cannes? earlier thanks to some BP-like blockbuster? 🙂
“I don’t know about you but when I want to remember my life I just have to remember what won Best Picture that year and it puts it all into perspective for me”.
The same happens with me. Thanks Sasha.
Always a pleasure AwardsDaily team for better or for worse. Always love the smart conversations about film and cinema with the commenters here. We learn from each other. Please take a well-deserved break you all. Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch trailer has just been released. It probably signals Cannes but let us save that some other time. My last request Ryan if you could indulge us before you all take a vacation, is if you can leave us the annual year in advance post where we can talk about the films we looking forward this year.
Again thank you very much AD squad! On to the new year in films!
Updates to the all-industry Best Picture-predicting system
These were prompted by two things, mainly – my increasing mistrust of acting/SAG nomination stats (due to AFTRA, on the one hand, and the notion that, with 20 slots available, it simply does not happen enough that a serious contender for Best Picture is actually snubbed for acting – last two years notwithstanding -, so that these stats have simply not been properly tested often enough for one to be sure about their strength, which, in any case, the numbers alone reveal to be quite a bit shakier than that of most of the other major industry stats), in particular in terms of their being included in elimination rules, and the discovery I made this January that Braveheart was, in fact (pretty much beyond doubt, as far as I’m concerned), snubbed by the PGA (both Wikipedia and IMDb appear to be wrong in claiming that only the winner was announced – I’ve found multiple sources confirming that there were, in fact, 7 PGA nominees that year, and Braveheart was not one of them). Relevant links:
https://nighthawknews.wordpress.com/2011/11/27/the-history-of-the-academy-awards-best-picture-1995/
http://oscarsijmen.freehostia.com/PGA90.htm
https://www.awardsdaily.com/wiki/wiki/main-wiki/wiki/producers-guild-pga/
http://tr.wikipedia-on-ipfs.org/wiki/En_%C4%B0yi_Tiyatral_Film_Producers_Guild_of_America_%C3%96d%C3%BCl%C3%BC.html
I also wanted to strengthen my nominations ranking elimination rules, which took a hit the Green Book year, and just in general to no longer have any elimination rules with more than one exception. Therefore, I decided to do that, as well as to no longer use the SAG Ensemble snub as part of any elimination rules (I already didn’t really use acting snubs that way), not the two snub rule and not the WGA+1 rule. And, finally, out of necessity (due to the tightening of the nominations ranking elimination rules), I had to add one last elimination rule: the need to win the PGA, DGA or WGA. All of this also required a change in how I stack up contenders against one another… Again, none of these things had any influence on picking Parasite this year or not – it would have been the system’s pick regardless. Long story short, here is the final version of the system as of right now, after the updates:
1. Elimination rules:
– the two snub rule (PGA/DGA/WGA/ACE and Oscar directing/screenplay/editing nominations only: no Best Picture winner has ever been snubbed for more than one of these in different categories – so, not DGA and Oscar directing, for example -, with at least 5 nomination slots per category, except for Hamlet in 1949, for editing and screenplay at the Oscars, although that one I find to be suspect due to the only writing credit, according to IMDb, being one William Shakespeare, who I suspect could/would not be nominated for an Oscar; Hamlet was also snubbed by the DGA, but there were only 4 slots that year and one of them was even taken by a movie that competed in another year at the Oscars, so of course this cannot be taken very seriously, especially since Hamlet did receive a directing nomination at the Oscars);
– the WGA+1 rule (same guild and Oscar categories involved, except for the screenplay ones – no Best Picture winner has ever been snubbed for one of the remaining five and also lost the WGA while eligible, except for Green Book in 2019, which is another questionable exception, since that was literally the only time in the WGA’s entire history that no Best Picture-nominated movie won any of their categories, which makes one question whether any of the Best Picture nominees should be held accountable for losing the WGA that year at all… regardless, both this and the two snub rule remain over 98%, even with the exceptions counted);
– a mandatory win at either PGA, DGA or WGA (every Best Picture winner in the PGA era has managed at least one, and the last movie that didn’t was Out of Africa in 1986, which had no PGA Award it could win – nor did any of the ones before it, some of which also had no shot at winning the WGA, being ineligible);
– having, at most, 6 nominations fewer than the Oscar nominations leader, as well as no more than 6 movies with more Oscar nominations that year (both of these rules are on 100% all-time).
Acting and ensemble nominations are also on 100% when combined with a lot of the other nomination stats used above, but not with others and, in general, seem to lead to exceptions annoyingly cropping up out of the blue, and a higher number of exceptions in general. Hence, their exclusion.
2. Weakness count:
– for the surviving movies after the eliminations phase (or, if all Best Picture nominees are eliminated, for all of them), head-to-head comparisons will be performed to see which of them has performed better than all others in terms of key industry wins and nominations;
– comparisons will simply consist of determining which of the two movies performed better overall in one of the following six categories: PGA, DGA/Oscar directing, WGA/Oscar screenplay, ACE/Oscar editing, SAG ensemble/acting/Oscar acting;
– ACE only counts in terms of nominations; the ACE win is irrelevant (the correlation is just not there – Best Picture winners sometimes win an ACE Award, but they very often don’t and that win is just as often harmful to predictions as it is helpful);
– evidently, a WGA ineligibility is not counted as a weakness;
– the acting branch performance is calculated by adding a point for any win at SAG (regardless of how many) and subtracting a point for any snub, whether in ensemble or acting at either SAG or the Oscars (but not both – a double snub in equivalent categories, meaning WGA+screenplay or DGA+directing or ACE+editing or SAG+Oscar acting, is always counted as a single weakness);
– the movie that performs better than all others in these head-to-head matchups is picked as the system’s favorite – if there is a tie…
I shall of course consider whether the WGA ineligibility should nevertheless be counted as a half-weakness or not, were the need to make that decision to arise at some point (for the 31 years of the PGA era investigated so far, using this method, it does not).
3. Tiebreakers:
– more SAG wins in any category (ensemble plus any of the four acting categories, counted equally);
– more SAG nominations in any category;
– more snubs (in the categories for which snub deductions are made).
Further tiebreakers will be added (after studying the options) should a situation ever come up in which these three prove insufficient. So far, none have.
Some of the more interesting examples – to perhaps clarify a bit how these steps work in various situations:
2020: All but Parasite and Jojo Rabbit are eliminated (1917, due to its editing snub coupled with its WGA defeat, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood and The Irishman due to failing to win PGA/DGA/WGA) and their matchup goes as follows:
– PGA is tied (both nominated and lost);
– DGA/directing goes to Parasite (due to Jojo Rabbit’s Oscar snub – both losing nominees at DGA);
– WGA is tied (both won);
– ACE is tied (both won);
– SAG/acting is tied (Parasite is snubbed for acting but wins ensemble, while Jojo Rabbit is nominated for both but wins neither – the Oscar acting snub for Parasite is a duplicate and is therefore not counted again);
– no further major Oscar snubs;
– Parasite wins by 1-0. (Note that, had I decided on an interpretation that awarded SAG/acting to Jojo Rabbit due to the extra Oscar acting snubs for Parasite, the latter still would have won the tiebreak round due to its SAG ensemble win vs. 0 SAG wins for Jojo.)
2019: All are eliminated (Green Book, due to its directing snub coupled with its WGA defeat, Roma, similarly, due to its editing snub coupled with its WGA defeat, BlacKkKlansman, Vice and The Favourite, due to failing to win PGA/DGA/WGA – and the others via the two snub rule). It’s fairly obvious why and how Green Book comfortably beats Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite and A Star is Born, given their many snubs and almost total lack of major guild wins (Malek’s win being the only one between the four of them), so I’m only going to give details for its remaining three matchups – it beats Vice as follows:
– PGA goes to Green Book (win vs. nomination);
– DGA/directing goes to Vice (due to Green Book’s Oscar snub – both were nominated for and lost the DGA);
– WGA is tied (both nominated and lost);
– ACE is tied (both nominated and lost);
– SAG goes to Green Book (both snubbed for ensemble, but Green Book won an acting award and Vice didn’t);
– no further major Oscar snubs;
– Green Book wins by 2-1.
And it beats BlacKkKlansman as follows:
– PGA goes to Green Book (win vs. nomination);
– DGA/directing goes to BlacKkKlansman (due to Green Book’s Oscar snub – both were nominated for and lost the DGA);
– WGA is tied (both nominated and lost);
– ACE is tied (both nominated and lost);
– SAG is tied (Green Book is snubbed for ensemble but wins an acting award, whereas BlacKkKlansman doesn’t, nor does it convert its ensemble nomination into a win);
– no further major Oscar snubs;
– since the score is 1-1, the first tiebreaker decides things in favor of Green Book (due to its extra SAG actin win).
And it beats Roma as follows:
– PGA goes to Green Book (win vs. nomination);
– DGA/directing goes to Roma (DGA win and Oscar nomination vs. DGA loss and Oscar snub);
– WGA is tied (both nominated and lost);
– ACE/editing goes to Green Book (both nominated and lost at ACE, but Roma was snubbed at the Oscars when Green Book wasn’t);
– SAG goes to Green Book (Roma is snubbed completely whereas Green Book wins an acting award);
– no further major Oscar snubs;
– Green Book wins by 3-1.
2018: All but The Shape of Water are eliminated (Three Billboards, due to failing to win PGA/DGA/WGA and Get Out due to being 9 nominations off the leader, The Shape of Water, 4 vs. 13). Count is not needed.
2017: All but Moonlight, La La Land and Arrival are eliminated. Moonlight beats Arrival as follows:
– PGA is tied (both nominated and lost);
– DGA is tied (both nominated and lost);
– WGA is tied (both won);
– ACE is tied (both nominated – Arrival won but, again, this is irrelevant);
– SAG/acting goes to Moonlight (ensemble nomination vs. snub, acting win vs. nomination and Oscar acting nomination vs. snub);
– no further major Oscar snubs;
– Moonlight wins by 1-0.
And it beats La La Land as follows:
– PGA goes to La La Land (win vs. nomination);
– DGA goes to La La Land (win vs. nomination);
– WGA goes to Moonlight (win vs. nomination);
– ACE is tied (both nominated – La La Land wins, but this is irrelevant to the system);
– SAG goes to Moonlight (both win an acting award but La La Land is snubbed for ensemble);
– no major Oscar snubs;
– since the score is 2-2 and the first tiebreaker does not decide (each won one SAG award), Moonlight’s extra ensemble nomination at SAG breaks the tie.
2016: All but Spotlight and The Revenant are eliminated (The Big Short, due to being 7 nominations off the leader, The Revenant, 5 vs. 12) and their matchup goes as follows:
– PGA is tied (both nominated, neither won);
– DGA goes to The Revenant (win vs. nomination);
– WGA/screenplay goes to Spotlight (WGA win and Oscar nomination vs. two snubs);
– ACE goes to The Revenant (nomination vs. snub);
– SAG goes to Spotlight (ensemble win and acting nomination vs. acting win but no ensemble nomination);
– no further major Oscar snubs;
– since the score is 2-2 and the first tiebreaker does not decide (each won one SAG award), Spotlight’s extra ensemble nomination at SAG breaks the tie.
2007: All but The Departed are eliminated (Little Miss Sunshine, by the two snub rule – Oscar directing and editing snubs). Count is not needed.
2006: All but Crash and Brokeback Mountain are eliminated and their matchup goes as follows:
– PGA goes to Brokeback Mountain (win vs. nomination);
– DGA goes to Brokeback Mountain (win vs. nomination);
– WGA is tied (both won);
– ACE/editing goes to Crash (Oscar snub for Brokeback Mountain);
– SAG goes to Crash (ensemble win vs. nomination, both nominated for acting but with no wins);
– no further major Oscar snubs;
– since the score is 2-2, the first tiebreaker decides things in favor of Crash (SAG ensemble win vs. no SAG wins for Brokeback Mountain).
2005: All but Million Dollar Baby, The Aviator and Sideways are eliminated. Million Dollar Baby beats Sideways as follows:
– PGA is tied (both nominated, neither won);
– DGA goes to Million Dollar Baby (win vs. nomination);
– WGA goes to Sideways (win vs. nomination);
– ACE/editing goes to Million Dollar Baby (Oscar snub for Sideways);
– SAG is tied (both nominated for ensemble as well as acting, Sideways won ensemble, Million Dollar Baby won acting awards);
– no further major Oscar snubs;
– Million Dollar Baby wins by 2-1.
And it beats The Aviator as follows:
– PGA goes to The Aviator (win vs. nomination);
– DGA goes to Million Dollar Baby (win vs. nomination);
– WGA is tied (both nominated, neither won);
– ACE is tied (both nominated – The Aviator won, but this is irrelevant);
– SAG is tied (both nominated for ensemble, both won acting awards);
– no major Oscar snubs;
– since the score is 1-1, the first tiebreaker decides things in favor of Million Dollar Baby (two SAG acting wins vs. just one for The Aviator).
2001: All but Gladiator and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon are eliminated (Traffic, due to being 7 nominations off the leader, Gladiator, 5 vs. 12) and their matchup goes as follows:
– PGA goes to Gladiator (win vs. nomination);
– DGA goes to Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (win vs. nomination);
– WGA goes to Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (nomination vs. snub);
– SAG goes to Gladiator (ensemble and acting nominations vs. snubs for both);
– no major Oscar snubs;
– since the score is 2-2 and the first tiebreaker does not decide (neither won any SAG awards), Gladiator’s extra ensemble and acting nominations at SAG break the tie.
1999: All but Shakespeare in Love and Saving Private Ryan are eliminated and their matchup goes as follows:
– PGA goes to Saving Private Ryan (win vs. nomination);
– DGA goes to Saving Private Ryan (win vs. nomination);
– WGA goes to Shakespeare in Love (win vs. nomination);
– ACE is tied (both nominated – Saving Private Ryan won, but this is irrelevant);
– SAG goes to Shakespeare in Love (wins for both ensemble and acting vs. only nominations);
– no major Oscar snubs;
– since the score is 2-2, the first tiebreaker decides things in favor of Shakespeare in Love (multiple SAG wins vs. none for Saving Private Ryan).
1998: All but Titanic and L.A. Confidential are eliminated (As Good As It Gets, due to being 7 nominations off the leader, Titanic, 7 vs. 14) and their matchup goes as follows:
– PGA goes to Titanic (win vs. nomination);
– DGA goes to Titanic (win vs. nomination);
– WGA/screenplay goes to L.A. Confidential (WGA win and Oscar nomination vs. WGA nomination and Oscar snub);
– ACE is tied (both nominated);
– SAG is tied (both nominated for and lost ensemble, both won an acting award – they tied each other, in fact, in that category);
– no further major Oscar snubs;
– Titanic wins by 2-1.
1996: All but Braveheart (PGA-snubbed, with acting and ensemble snubs at SAG and the Oscars, but WGA winner, and no two snub rules apply) are eliminated (Apollo 13 due to the directing snub coupled with the WGA defeat, Sense and Sensibility due to the two snub rule – directing and editing Oscar snubs). Count is not needed – and would be misleading!
1993: All but Unforgiven and The Crying Game are eliminated and their matchup goes as follows:
– PGA goes to The Crying Game (win vs. nomination);
– DGA goes to Unforgiven (win vs. nomination);
– WGA goes to The Crying Game (win vs. nomination);
– ACE goes to Unforgiven (as The Crying Game was snubbed);
– there is no SAG;
– no major Oscar snubs – no differences there;
– since the score is 2-2 and the first two tiebreakers are unavailable, The Crying Game’s ACE snub (there are 5 slots), the only one for either, decides things in favor of Unforgiven.
1990: All but Driving Miss Daisy and Born on the Fourth of July are eliminated and their matchup goes as follows:
– PGA goes to Driving Miss Daisy (win vs. nomination);
– DGA/directing goes to Born on the Fourth of July (DGA win and Oscar nomination vs. two snubs);
– WGA goes to Driving Miss Daisy (win vs. nomination);
– ACE is not counted (there are only 3 nomination slots and a single category);
– there is no SAG;
– no further major Oscar snubs;
– Driving Miss Daisy wins by 2-1.
Any questions about any of this or anything I might have left out will, of course, not go unanswered… 🙂
I’ve read and enjoyed Sasha’s posts on this site for many years. I’m a bit perplexed by the ho-hum tone of these last few think pieces in the wake of such an exciting and historic win. Of course, she’s entitled to her own opinion, as we all are, and I respect her point of view. And I am not, in any way, interested in awarding a film or an artist for any reason other than it was the best work, plain and simple. The beauty of Parasite’s win is just that: it was the best. That it managed to overcome the 92 year bias against foreign productions and subtitles feels like an affirmation to so many of us that it is indeed possible for the right thing to happen for the right reasons. Let’s not diminish that by conflating it with the exhausting trend towards absolute wokeness, twitter outrage, or calls to abolish categories. Let’s celebrate the fact that even in this extraordinary year for films, against all odds the Oscars got it right.
Thank you for creating and running this site, and the entire AD crew for keeping it awesome!
And thanks for creating a welcoming and fascinating community.
And thank you, everyone reading and commenting, for participating.
This is all so special to me.
“This is all so special to me.”
Awards Daily makes all our lives better… 🙂
Is there going to be a final Oscar podcast to close the season, as you usually do?
Would love that.
We are scheduled to record one tonight!
Thank you, Sasha, Ryan and everyone else for making this the greatest awards site out there
Thanks for putting your heart and soul into this each year Sasha and team.
Now then, when can we start talking Oscars 2021? 🙂 Doesn’t Ryan post a piece shortly after the Oscars where we vote on the films we’re most looking forward to seeing in the current awards year? No pressure guys… enjoy some much needed time off 😉
In the meantime – what films are you most excited to see this year and/or have the biggest awards potential? Here’s a shortlist for me:
Soul – (Pixar/Docter)
Tenet – (WB/Nolan)
News of the World – (Universal/Greengrass)
Hillbilly Elegy – (Netflix/Howard)
West Side Story – (Fox/Spielberg)
“To my mind, after that, I think they ought to obliterate the category.”
I disagree… just because the precedent has been set that a foreign-language film can win Best Picture, I don’t think it means that it’s going to happen often enough or that enough foreign-language films are going to be nominated each year for that category to have outgrown its use. If we start seeing more and more foreign-language films in the Best Picture category every year and we see more of them winning, then maybe the Academy should consider disposing of the Best International Feature Film category, but for now, I think that category is still necessary to assure that world cinema makes it into the Oscars (because we all know someone in the Academy is going to push for something American to win next year).
In the meantime, nothing makes me happier than seeing my favorite film of 2019 win the Oscar for Best Picture, in spite of the one-inch barrier and the fact that nothing about its production is American.
I suspect next year will be back to the basics for the Academy. A predictable movie will win Best Picture and/or Best Director and a young actress in her 20s or 30s will win Best Actress. No POC will win anywhere as well. There will be no overdue Oscars given. The opposite of this year. No doubt.
Let’s see. There were plenty of unconventional or rare BP winners this decade – 12 Years a Slave (black themed film by a black filmmaker), Birdman (gimmicky satire by a latino filmmaker), Spotlight (I consider it an unusual choice because of how much it does look a traditional Oscar bait, but it’s much more that), Moonlight (indie black and gay themed film by a black filmmaker with an entirely black cast), The Shape of Water (female driven fantasy/sci-fi film by a latino filmmaker) and now Parasite (foreign language social satire). Green Book was the sole exception between them.
While I tend to agree with the notion that Parasite caught lightning in a bottle via the single best campaign anyone has ever seen, it’s pretty clear that the voting bloc really WANTS to go outside the box, but simultaneously resents being TOLD to do so. Thus the last 10 years of spread the wealth Oscars.
I agree about everything except the “no POC win” part – they tend to react to what happened the year before and they might react to the criticism about that next year, as well…
These last two Oscar seasons have yielded the defying of conventional thinking in a couple of ways: ‘Black Panther’ raised the bar for the Comic Book genre with its Best Picture nomination, and 3 Oscar wins (Production Design, Costume Design, Original Score). Last year, ‘Roma’ was the international sensation that had a path to winning Best Picture, but ultimately came up short. One could agrue that back in 2000, ‘Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon’ also had a path to victory, but it had 2 other viable contenders in ‘Gladiator’ (which won Best Picture), and ‘Traffic’ (winner for Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Director). So that particular split made ‘Crouching Tiger’s chances that much slimmer.
Last year was kind of an odd year. My personal choice was ‘BlacKkKlansman’, but the film just didn’thave the overall support needed to push it over the finish line. ‘Roma’ was one of the favorites, having won the GG and the DGA, with the BAFTA Best Picture win for good measure. But it seemed the language barrier was still a key factor, even though The Academy loves Alfonso Cuaron (and for good reason). Somehow, this year, Bong Joon Ho pulled the rabbit out of the hat and made a film that resonated with both international and American audiences, as well as becoming the critics’ darling heading into awards season. I think the reason for ‘Parasite’s success is that the story incorporates highly relatable modern themes of classism and how Capitalism has unnecessarily pitted us against one another, and that we are truly best judged by how we treat the least among us. It’s a powerful message, and one that films like ‘Parasite’, Jojo Rabbit’ and ‘Joker’ brought to the forefront of the moviegoing experience in 2019.
When Bong broke out the “1 inch barrier called the subtitle” talking point at the Globes, I suspected strongly that he had cracked the puzzle that Roma had failed to do so.
As someone myself that has been here to experience all the ups and downs , twists and turns and the expected and unexpected in awards season and by extension movie news in build up to each awards season- which includes all controversies and smears and the pleasant and unpleasant surprises.
All these things…Sasha and Ryan and the formidable force for good in name of everyone contributing to these issues with their own views every awards season in the stand out shining example of democracy at its best…And it due to the 20 years and counting of pinpoint coverage detailed analysis and I therefore speak on behalf of all us members , old and new when I express my – and our deepest gratitude for having the great honor and priveledge of having the closest thing to a front row seat experience of going through motions of pre, during and post awards season due entirely to awards daily.com long may you Sasha continue to deliver along with your acclaimed team in our eyes a level of objective and detailed insights going forward in the years to come. For you all deserve nothing less but to boost your appeal to people like us who want to be kept informed.
Ultimately it overall doesn’t matter who wins and loses but to be able have freedom to feel part of whole awards season shebang is something we all look forward to each awards season cos you make that possible Sasha.
So we are truly grateful continuing be on this epic journey into the unknown with you in the coming decades . Full credit all round to Ryan and the team supporting you too .
Well said!
I’m off on my break, as you know… take care, my friend, and see you in September(ish)! 🙂
So that’s a wrap. I have to say my favourite movie of the year was 1917 by far, I think it is one of those movies that was an instant classic. However I do recognise “Parasite” as an exceptional film, and I’m quite happy for Bong Joon Ho. I also like when Oscars reward Picture and Director because that’s making a statement about autorship, and there’s no doubt that this year an auteur was elevated: picture, director and screenplay no less. Bong is undoubtedly one of the best directors in modern film and the Academy had the eye to reward him at the peak of his career. How many times we complain that Scorsese didn’t win for Taxi Driver, or Spielberg didn’t win for ET, or Tarantino didn’t win for Pulp Fiction. Well, Bong has won for his masterpiece (even though I prefer Memories of Murder, one of my top pictures in my list). It is a shame that Oscars rarely tie: I really would have split the award between Bong and Mendes, who’s created an unforgettable cinematic experience in my mind. I guess that, now that it’s all done and dusted, we should just be happy that we were able to see so many good movies this year. It was truly a season to remember.
Have to say that I feel the same. If Little Women could’t win (Sasha, you almost did me in this year, Lol), I was pulling hard for 1917, which I thought was magnificent in every way.
I had some issues with Parasite (mostly near the end … was LOVING it before that), but overall, I can’t deny how powerful that movie is and the excellence of it in every facet of film making. I can see how its momentous win is so important for the Academy Awards and film fans around the world moving forward. It was a great season; if too short.
Thank you to Sasha, Ryan et al for another stellar year of Awards coverage. You guys rock.
That’s precisely what I never found Parasite to be: powerful. (Subjective stuff, I know.) I agree with the excellence in every facet thing, though – I, too, would have liked to see a Bong-Mendes tie.
1917 joins many of the great films that didn’t win Best Picture. It will be remembered long after this ceremony. Saving Private Ryan, Goodfellas, The Social Network, There Will Be Blood….the list is very long.
And Citizen Kane
*Reposting because apparently Disqus thinks my comments are spam*
Wow, I can’t believe that Oscar season 2020 is that over so quick. At least next year and the year after, it will be back to its regularly scheduled late February date (I personally wish it was held in mid March for me to see as many nominees).
I think Awards Daily is a more fun and engaging discussion than say Twitter. I’m not limited to 280 characters, and I can express more nuance in my opinions. Thank you, Sasha, Marshall, and Ryan.
It seems that every year I say that I am done with the Oscars, but to quote The Godfather Part 3, “Just when I thought I was out they bring me back in.” The Oscars are a fun experience for better or worse, and I hope it stays on ABC beyond 2028. I would be a little sad if it left for streaming because I think underprivileged or poor folks who can’t afford cable or streaming services but still want to watch it won’t have the opportunity to do so.
Otherwise, I enjoy films whether it’s for fun like Detective Pikachu, Inside Out, or Super 8 or for art that is unique like 1917, If Beale Street Could Talk, The Big Short, and All About My Mother. I probably blame it on my love for Disney movies as a kid. Once again, thanks to folks like Claudiu, Andrew, Derek Richmond, and Phantom for your insights. I certainly wish I could have made predictions, but I couldn’t because of my busy schedule. Nevertheless, I’m happy to throw out stats for help.
And yes, at the end of the day we still have real world problems. I’m still looking for a job , struggling with mild depression, and wishing for a return to stability in our government (to put it mildly). However, the movies are sometimes a place to find relief. So, I’m glad to share my enthusiasm on this site since November 2014 (although I’ve been reading this site since April 2012).
Oh well, I’m off to continuing my job search, playing Pokémon Go, exercising, and catching up with Pokemon anime and We Bare Bears. I can’t guarantee I’ll comeback, but who knows.
https://media3.giphy.com/media/cLAxyYaeVIqcQVvGms/giphy.gif
I scheduled to watch Detective Pikachu next week-end!
It’s not Beale Street, 1917, or Parasite, but I personally liked it for nostalgic reasons.
Unpopular opinion:
I like the shortened season. Now, we can get on with our lives earlier instead of wasting one more month obsessing over stats and precedents. I always found February quite boring awards-wise as things seem to slow down after two months of daily developments. The only good thing about a longer season is that it leaves us more time to see more nominated films.
If only awards bodies could harmonize their schedules and spread out their ceremonies evenly through the month and through the three evenings of each week-end, making sure there is at least one major ceremony (SAG, WGA, PGA, DGA, BAFTA) each week-end before the Oscars, it might prove more exciting.
SAG should also move their nominations date to January with the other guilds to leave their voters more time to see the late releases (The Wolf of Wall Street, Phantom Thread…).
That way, we could have an orderly and balanced awards season with journos having their say in December, guild noms + GG + CC + Oscar noms spread out through January, guild + bafta awards spread out through February, Oscars late February or early March.
Your schedule in the last paragraph works for me.
Ok good! Because I keep tinkering with it realizing it was already that way those last few years, except things were badly scheduled with some busy week-ends and then a couple empty weeks before the Oscars. Not sure what works best for ratings but it’s a bit frustrating for avid Oscar-watchers.
Just as long as the December release get their fair share of viewers. I’m for the most part fine (my preference is Oscars on the first March Sunday).
Yes. SAG announcing in December is definitely problematic. They pride themselves on being different, but it shouldn’t come as a result of their inability to give major late releases a proper chance. In fact, they could’ve been different this year had they voted for George McKay or Song Kang-ho but they didn’t. December announcements should be for journalists only as they see more films and see them earlier.
If we’re to go back to a longer season, then awards bodies and especially guilds shouldn’t rush to be the first out of the gate, but take the time to consider all contenders and organize themselves to keep us interested all the way through.
The difference, of course, being that I’ve never found February to be a boring time in awards season. 🙂 I just like it when the big announcements at the end (WGA, BAFTA, minor guilds) come more slowly, giving us time to process them and still do everything else we need to do. Like have more than a few hours to do our final Oscar predictions. 🙂 Which isn’t a problem for most people, for a number of reasons, but it was for me this year, and probably actually cost me a bit.
“The only good thing about a longer season is that it leaves us more time to see more nominated films.”
And this is the best argument against the shorter season…
“If only awards bodies could harmonize their schedules and spread out their ceremonies evenly through the month and through the three evenings of each week-end, making sure there is at least one major ceremony (SAG, WGA, PGA, DGA, BAFTA) each week-end before the Oscars, it might prove more exciting.”
Couldn’t agree more. 🙂 They clearly won’t, though – they would have done it by now.
“SAG should also move their nominations date to January with the other
guilds to leave their voters more time to see the late releases (The Wolf of Wall Street, Phantom Thread…).”
Also agree 100%.
Of course, it has a lot to do with how we approach awards season. I remember a decade ago, I would start following mid-January with the Globes and Oscar nominations and I would watch nominees in February, so of course it would still feel fresh by the time the Oscar ceremony arrived. But I loved it so much I wanted more, so I discovered AwardsDaily and started getting into it earlier every year until I found myself spending the whole year thinking about it, looking up titles in advance, marking down release dates, compiling Most Anticipated Lists and updating my actual Most Liked list after every screening (which is actually quite useful). So I try to watch everything I’m interested in before we do the simulation and I ponder a lot to decide how to rank my picks, but I feel like the season’s already half-over once Oscar noms are revealed.
I can tell you I’m already tired of hearing about Tenet, Mank, The French Dispatch and Ammonite and I’m still at best months away from seeing them. Now of course things really start in late August/September and the field might be very different from what we’re expecting now, which is good, but from then on we keep reading about roughly the same names every day for six months, and things are already crystallizing by October, so naturally I get a little tired by February.
But I do like the symmetry of all this and how we can divide the year in roughly four three-months windows:
1. March to May, Oscars to Cannes = Spring Break
2. June to August, Cannes to Venice = Blockbuster Summer
3. September to November: Venice to Thanksgiving = Fall Festivals + late release screenings
4. December to February: NBR/NYFCC to Oscars = Awards Season
The last one being itself divided in three: December = press announcements; January = guild announcements + dress rehearsals (Globes, Critics Choice…); February = guild awards culminating with the Oscars.
I’m a sucker for symmetry ;=)
“I remember a decade ago, I would start following mid-January with the Globes and Oscar nominations and I would watch nominees in February, so of course it would still feel fresh by the time the Oscar ceremony arrived. But I loved it so much I wanted more, so I discovered AwardsDaily and started getting into it earlier every year until I found myself spending the whole year thinking about it, looking up titles in advance, marking down release dates, compiling Most Anticipated Lists and updating my actual Most Liked list after every screening (which is actually quite useful).”
Yeah, it was something like that for me as well. 🙂 At first, I only watched the Oscar ceremony on TV. (Even that, not every year.) Then, I got into it more once I got into college (probably a coincidence, though, I don’t think it had anything to do with that) and I discovered the IMDb Oscar Buzz message boards. Was there for a few years (it was nice, I have fond memories – and some less fond ones, as with all such things), until 2012-2013, when I discovered Awards Daily and, within a couple of years, I’d moved here pretty much completely.
I also update my rankings (in picture and all other categories I rank) after every movie I see. Definitely very useful. 🙂
“Now of course things really start in late August/September and the field might be very different from what we’re expecting now, which is good, but from then on we keep reading about roughly the same names every day for six months, and things are already crystallizing by October, so naturally I get a little tired by February.”
I don’t have that problem, since I take the March-September break. 🙂
But February is a good time to breathe and reflect before the final big push… This year, there never was such a time. 🙁 The obsessing over stats and precedents thing is more our fault than anything else. 🙂 (And, let’s face it, I’m guiltier of it than anybody!) In reality, we can do whatever we want (or whatever’s best) with that time. (I know I could have spent half the time – or less – I did in previous years obsessing over the – in fairness, always incredibly fascinating – Best Picture stats situation, when really all that mattered was what my system was picking, for my official prediction, and what made the most sense logically, for the unofficial one. This year I was forced to not do that, and of course it was a good thing – I might have even chickened out and not gone with Parasite on the unofficial side, if given more time to overthink things, although my official prediction never would have changed -, but I shouldn’t have been doing that anyway, is my point. And I’ll do my best not to, in years to come. That’s precious time right there… O.K., sometimes there’s a need to think hard about whether to make this or that change to the system while the season is still going, but I’ve done much more than that in the past, which didn’t need to be done – and neglected some of the other things I needed to do, the ones not connected to the Oscars, as a result.)
Lovely and generous farewell to another year. I’ve been along for the ride for a dozen years and I come back because you folks are the best. Sasha and Ryan and the entire team create a great place for all of us to land.
You’re inclusive, tireless and above all, leading by example with appreciation, passion and erudite prosecution of thought and argument. This award palava is addictive stuff but it’s more than that. At least it is for me and I suspect for most of us here. It’s about storytelling and narratives . Cinema holds up a mirror not only to the world and society we live in, but ones we’ve already had and some futuristic landscapes to imagine as well as a mirror to ourselves. We want to see our experiences on the screen. We want films to really speak to us. I admire the impassioned voices here.
Thank you for this glorious playpen in which to have these discussions and to challenge notions around identity, race, gender, colour and humanity.
Cheers to you all.
“I think they ought to obliterate the category. It’s antiquated anyway and it’s unfair to the other international nominees when a film is in both categories because it automatically becomes the winner”
I’m sure the losing nominees would much rather be nominated and lose to a BP nominee than not be invited to the party at all, thank you! The Oscars need an international film category because so few international films ever get nominated beyond that category (same for animated and documentary). The day when 5 FLFs manage to get nominations outside their dedicated category, then we can talk about scrapping it but not before, and even so it would need to happen every year and set a pattern for such a decision to make sense.
Completely agree. Two years of one or two film getting nominated isn’t even near enough to remove the category, especially considering that you still always need American or British contacts to get a best picture nomination. The previous film to get a best picture nomination without the director having made an American or at least US-financed film before this nomination is from 1972 (The Emigrants). Instead filmmakers like Ladj Ly can get talked about and cinema from around the world can be seen so that the Oscars won’t just look at themselves and the American industry. Also, considering how Parasite started its run, most likely without this category it wouldn’t have been even nominated for best picture because the film’s buzz beyond just “great movie, Palme winner” started with Oscar people seeing it because it had potential in this category. Without the helping hand of this category, voters and Oscar pundits aren’t going to pick up those screeners (it’s not like a ton of people watched Winter Sleep, most likely because there was little belief in its Oscar chances in this category)
I consider myself an extremist here. Either:
A.) Have one singular Best Picture category with conditions built in that ensure at least one animated, one documentary, and one foreign language production gets nominated every 12 years and at least one of any three of those types every 4 years (I wrote about how this could be done here), or
B.) Completely separate them—Best English-Language Narrative, Best Foreign Language, Best Animated, and Best Documentary, with the latter three types capable of competing in any of the same three categories.
No, no – thank you for everything you (and everybody else that is Awards Daily) do! We’re just having fun. 🙂 And it’s all because of you…
“I know that it’s probably time for me to step aside and let the many new voices on the Oscar scene take over. I’m not quite ready to do that but I’m closer than I used to be. I’m not sure I have anything to say about the Oscars with the way they’re starting to change”
Come on, Sasha!… If you don’t have anything to say about the Oscars anymore, then nobody does. 🙂
“To quote a line from Fried Green Tomatoes—there are angels out there masquerading as people and Ryan is one of those.”
That was one of the movies I fell in love with as a teenager seeing it on T.V.! Brilliant to see it’s still remembered by some…
“No one else knows each and every one of you in the comment sections like he does. No one cares as much as about the integrity of the many voices that pass through here as he does.”
Word!
How about a hearty thank you Claudiu. I sometimes feel like leaving the Oscar conservation, but this site pulls me back. Anyways, it’s back to my Pokemon Go and job searching ways. https://media0.giphy.com/media/lJlLICMky00CI/giphy.gif
Good luck to you, let’s hope you find more than Pokemons 😉
Good luck to you, let’s hope you find more than Pokemons 😉
Good luck! Been there… (The job thing.)
I can’t even remember when I started coming here. this blog was still OscarWatch back then. I do remember discussing the first Lord of the Rings (or was it the second?) and Chicago. So maybe I’ve been coming here since 2001 or 2002? Congratulations on all the hard work, on adding all these great collaborators during the years (like Ryan) and making us engage in all this awards chatter, all united, bar a few idiots unfortunately, in the love for quality cinema
Wow, almost all the way since the beginning – awesome!
Stats update for Best Picture:
All stats that held due to 1917 losing to Parasite, specifically:
INDUSTRY:
– editing nomination stat (still only beaten by Birdman since 1981, despite having to fend off challenges from contenders as strong as Roma or 1917, and that’s just in the last two years);
– ACE nomination stat;
– SAG ensemble nomination stat (which isn’t doing so hot but obviously still matters – I still use it, in any case, and it helps, even though it’s only on 88% after Parasite’s win, 22/25);
– WGA+1 stat (in 1917’s case: no movie has won Best Picture after being snubbed by AMPAS – or ACE, for that matter – for editing and then also losing the WGA);
– two snub rule (in 1917’s case: no movie has ever won Best Picture after being snubbed for both acting and editing – 87/87, after this);
– zero SAG nominations stat (no Best Picture winner since Braveheart has not had at least one SAG nomination for either acting or ensemble);
– BAFTA screenplay nomination stat (the last 16 or so Best Picture winners have all been nominated for that).
OTHER:
– Golden Globes screenplay nomination stat (last 15);
– Critics Choice screenplay nomination stat (also last 15);
– Satellite Awards screenplay nomination stat (last 16);
– Detroit Film Critics Society Best Film nomination stat (last 13 – all of them);
– Washington DC Area Film Critics Association (last 12);
– and other minor critics awards stats…
ADDITIONALLY:
– a stat I discovered earlier this Oscar season (but never found the time to post before), which says that no Best Picture winner since A Beautiful Mind (last 18) has not won an award for either their director, writer(s) or one of their actors (including special awards – rarely needed) at NBR/NYFCC/LAFCA/NSFC (any of the four; A Beautiful Mind is, in fact, the only PGA-era winner to have failed to do this), as well as that no winner since Crash (last 14) has not won at least two different awards for picture, director, screenplay or acting (again, including special awards) from the same four groups (1917 only got mentioned for cinematography at NBR, nothing else, Jojo Rabbit was in the NBR Top 10, like 1917, but got no wins whatsoever, and neither did Joker or Ford v Ferrari);
– the stat that only one of the last (now) 17 Best Picture winners didn’t win screenplay at either the WGA, BAFTA, USC Scripter, Golden Globes or Critics Choice (The Shape of Water);
– the stat that (now) 13 of the last 14 Best Picture winners had at least an 85 Metascore (Green Book, of course, being the exception).
A few of the stats that held due to Parasite winning Best Picture (over the field):
– the stat that when a movie won my preferential simulation (which I’ve done for all preferential years except the ones when The Hurt Locker and The Artist won) that was neither ruled out by any elimination rules my official predicting system uses, nor too far behind in the weakness count (more on all of that in my next post), it won Best Picture at the Oscars as well (Parasite joins Birdman and Moonlight on that list);
– the stat that no movie to have come in second or tied for second in the same simulation has ever won Best Picture;
– the NBR-GG-DGA-WGA win stat (no movie has won Best Picture since Hamlet without winning Best Film at NBR, Best Picture in either category at the Globes, the DGA or one of the two WGA categories).
Some of the stats that held due to Jojo Rabbit not winning Best Picture (not already mentioned):
INDUSTRY:
– the directing nomination stat;
– the BAFTA Best Film nomination stat (the last 23 Best Picture winners apart from Million Dollar Baby all had it).
OTHER:
– the Critics Choice directing nomination stat (last 17);
– the Golden Globes directing nomination stat (last 14);
– the Satellite Awards directing nomination stat (last 14);
– the Golden Globes screenplay nomination stat (last 14);
– the stat that no Best Picture winner has not won at least one Critics Choice award for picture, director, screenplay or acting in the BFCA era;
– the stat that no Best Picture winner has not won at least one Golden Globe or Critics Choice award for picture, director or screenplay in the same period of time (and a few years beyond);
– and a bunch of less important ones…
All stats that broke due to Parasite winning Best Picture (over the field):
INDUSTRY:
– Oscar acting nomination stat (this would have also been broken by 1917, of course);
– SAG acting nomination stat (the last 15 Best Picture winners had at least one; also a problem for 1917);
– BAFTA acting nomination stat (last 18 besides Million Dollar Baby; also a problem for 1917); it can be noted that all of these are acting-related (and were partially made up for by the SAG Ensemble win), whereas the others had all sorts of industry stats to beat, showing weakness with multiple Academy and guild branches.
OTHER:
– Critics Choice acting nomination stat (last 10; also a problem for 1917);
– NBR Top 10 stat (again – The Shape of Water also broke this; this hit takes it under 90% over the last 16 years, so it will be borderline unusable for me in the future);
– St. Louis Film Critics Association Best Film nomination stat (12 of the last 13);
– and other minor critics awards stats…
Additionally:
– the late October top 3 predicted stat (1917 would have broken this as well) – this has been holding for so long it’s almost surreal to see it fail, even though it’s been pretty obvious it would for a while… but I guess it had to, eventually.
Again, the foreign film thing was not a stat. The only relevant precedents were, obviously, the foreign films nominated for Best Picture before (since what the stat aims to “prove” is that a nominated foreign film, which is what Parasite was, cannot win Best Picture). However, only two of them had done anywhere near as well as Parasite in the precursor stage (and Oscar nominations), Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and Roma – for a total relevant sample size of 2. But, for argument’s sake, we can ignore that, and then we have 11 foreign language films previously nominated for Best Picture. Calculating their total random winning expectancy (while most of them were nominated alongside 4 other movies, three of them were facing between 7 and 9 opponents) we arrive at 1.94, so basically two expected wins out of a total 11 possible. Only two wins away from the total achieved (zero), prior to Parasite. Given how very small the sample size is and the fact that this is not a nomination stat (meaning the task at hand – winning – is quite a bit harder to achieve – since for nomination stats we are, by definition, discussing only those movies already strong enough to be nominated for whatever other award we’re using the stat in question to predict), I would say this was virtually unusable. Even before Parasite won.
Finally, a stat that held due to Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood not winning is, of course, the one about the Best Picture winner always having won either the PGA, the DGA or the WGA in the PGA era (and beyond, going all the way back to 1986).
Other observations on Best Picture (in fairly random order):
This was the first time my predicting system went fully against the PGA winner (unless we count Gravity, too) and was successful! (Of course, in its current form, it would have also gone against others – since the whole point is to come up with a set of rules that picks every single winner in the PGA era, and it alone, from the set of nominees, and then use that to predict future races -, but I’m talking about the system in its form on Oscar day of each of the years I’ve used it. I did also predict against the PGA unofficially the year of Spotlight, and got that right, but my system was going with The Big Short instead, at the time.) Therefore, even though this was a rather easy stats layout to read (the number and severity of the weaknesses 1917 and others showed was far too great, compared to Parasite’s), perhaps this was more of an achievement than I was thinking it would be… In any case, the WGA again showed why it’s still the most important Best Picture precursor (Aaron Reichwald is going to love reading this, if he’s still around), especially in years with unclear races. And why the PGA (which is now on 3 full exceptions and a half-exception in the 11 years of the preferential era) should not be treated as a particularly difficult precursor to beat just because it also uses the preferential system – I mean, even a foreign film beat it!… Speaking of which, my theory that changes in voter demographics and mentality should be reflected in precursor results, thus enabling one to focus on the stats alone and not need to worry about guessing whether or not this or other such factors will impact the Oscar outcome in unforeseeable ways is looking a bit stronger after this Parasite win. The voters were finally ready to pick a foreign film, and this was, as expected, foreshadowed in a lot of key places – at SAG, WGA and ACE. (And everywhere else within the industry, in terms of its getting the key nominations required.) It didn’t beat or break the stats – it simply followed one of the already well-established paths.
One last thing about the PGA: as I think I’ve mentioned before, that and BAFTA were the only places (of the major precursors) 1917 actually beat Parasite for picture, and one was an award voted on by producers only, who were always going to be far, far more likely to go for something like 1917 (which their history shows as well), and the same can be said for BAFTA, given the British connection. This was just far from enough proof 1917 would be a favorite over Parasite “on neutral ground”, so to speak, at the Oscars, in Best Picture. For directing it had beaten it several places. There was more evidence there. (But, again, the editing+acting snubs stat was, in hindsight, a bigger deal than the wins). The Phoenix Film Critics Society got Best Picture wrong again (they picked Joker). Even so, they’re doing better than the PGA in the preferential era – they only got The Hurt Locker, Moonlight and Parasite “wrong” (whereas the PGA, in addition to its three exceptions, also had a tie between 12 Years a Slave and Gravity). One place that did strongly foreshadow this Parasite win long before the real fight started was the AFI Awards, where, like The Artist, The King’s Speech and Roma (the only other feature films besides Harry Potter, which got it the same year as The Artist – and for the whole series, anyway) before it, Parasite got the Special Award that has now led to a Best Picture win 3/4 times (and DGA and Best Director wins the other time)…
I think that what wins BAFTA Best Film will only become relevant in the Best Picture race if they ever again decide to pick a movie they don’t think is the front runner (which is what people keep accusing the BFCA of doing – BAFTA is just as bad and, in terms of actually getting it “right”, is in fact worse) and which is also not a British production. They’ve picked either the PGA winner (The Aviator, 12 Years a Slave), the DGA winner (The Revenant, Roma), the winner of both (9 times) and/or a British movie (The Queen, Atonement, The King’s Speech – also a PGA+DGA winner, counted -, Three Billboards) every year but one since 2003, when The Pianist (which was a France-Germany-Poland-UK production, by the way – in any case, for the winner the year before, The Fellowship of the Ring, I can find no UK connection) won. The exception being Boyhood, which was still fairly widely expected to win the DGA at the time voting closed (I remember it well – a ton of people were still predicting a split at the Oscars at that point), because the DGA only announced that Birdman had won instead the day before the BAFTA ceremony. (Which was probably not the case in The Revenant and Roma’s years – there were eight days between when the DGA and BAFTA announced, those times, as I suspect is the case most years.) And Boyhood was the big Globes and Critics Choice winner, anyway, so that was hardly going against the favorite, regardless. Anyway, until BAFTA finally come up with an unexpected winner, even if they get Best Picture right, there simply will be no reason to assume it was anything but a coincidence. Even then, it will not be BAFTA that gets it right, it will be the PGA or the DGA. BAFTA will simply copy-paste and tell us nothing. They don’t even tell us anything when they pick a British winner that didn’t win the PGA or DGA – it’s not even an indication of weakness for the PGA/DGA winner, because a PGA and/or DGA winner has taken Best Picture every time that’s happened since 2003, anyway.
I was right about Jojo Rabbit not winning (especially the year just after Green Book) – I said more than once that I needed to see it to believe it. Not least of all because I never thought something with as silly-sounding a name as “Jojo Rabbit” would get handed the Academy’s biggest honour. (I couldn’t come up with any other silly-sounding Best Picture-winning titles when I checked the list, a few months ago.) Speaking of titles, again a short one triumphs – perhaps this wasn’t a non-factor in Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood’s ultimate demise. Apart from literary adaptations (which is obviously different), titles that long simply have not made it onto the list of Best Picture winners… I was also right when I said, early on (after it came out with an 85+ Metascore), that 1917 would do at least as well as The Revenant had. It followed almost the same trajectory, the key differences being that it didn’t lose the Critics Choice for director, it had WGA and Oscar screenplay nominations instead of ACE and Oscar editing nominations (arguably an improvement, especially since it also had the “excuse”), it had no SAG or Oscar acting nominations but it won the PGA (which The Revenant failed to do) to make up for it. I guess it could be argued it did a little worse since it lost Best Director (although it still matched The Revenant’s tally of 3 wins), but I had only actually been talking about its precursor run when I said this, not about how well it would do on Oscar night.
Speaking of excuses, yet again they don’t work out… The only time excuses work out in the Best Picture race is when the movie in question actually does enough in terms of wins and nominations elsewhere to render them unnecessary. 🙂 (Like Birdman or The Shape of Water did – and 1917 didn’t.) I also want to update the situation on the pre-PGA final announcement stats table I keep every year: after this Parasite win, the new “stat” is that, in the five years I’ve looked at, the Best Picture winner has always been in the top 5 in those stats rankings, and no more than 11 weighted points (and 9 unweighted points) off first place. (Parasite was third, 11 and 8 points off first, which was Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood.) Finally, I want to just say that this Oscar weekend went absolutely perfectly for me, starting with The Farewell’s brilliantly unexpected triumph at the Independent Spirit Awards (where Marriage Story, also one of my favorites of the year, did very well too) and ending with the big victory for the stats that was Parasite’s Best Picture win… I’ve been running really well in life in general since roughly the start of December (arguably even earlier than that, maybe September), so I kind of had a bit of extra confidence I would get Best Picture right this year, and it indeed panned out. That’s almost it for me for this Oscar season – one more post to make, the one about the updated form of the Best Picture-predicting system, then I’ll be off (apart from reading a few more articles and comments and replying here and there, which will probably be more or less done by the end of the week).
That is a lot of information to absorb, but bravo.
Thank you! 🙂
Wow – well done, and well written. You did so good with this year’s race 🙂
Thanks! 🙂 Yeah, I’m happy with my work. The next few years will tell whether it’s really any good or not, though…
Re-posting this, then adding the next one…
First I’ll do an update about Oscar contests and bets and such, as well as the stats in all other categories, then I’ll prepare the post about the stats that held and the (very few) that didn’t for Best Picture and so on and, finally, update those interested on the all-industry stats Best Picture-predicting system (not many updates have been made, and none of them played into the system picking Parasite this year anyway, but they will come into play in the future, no doubt).
So, my official stats predictions went 18/24 this year, which isn’t great, although it’s also not that bad, especially since two of those misses were shorts (where the stats, as I’ve said before – and as one would expect – are of the most unreliable kind) – I had Kitbull in animated short and Brotherhood in live action short. (Tariq Khan was right after all, when he said in a recent podcast that he was sure Brotherhood wasn’t winning.) The other categories missed were director (still regret not paying the proper amount of attention to the stats research in that category – it was the one I started with and I knew at that point that I had a ton of work left to do on the stats in all of the other categories, so I kind of rushed it, deciding way too quickly that the win stats would likely trump the snub stat, even though the latter was so, so strong – but more on that below), sound mixing (had Ford v Ferrari for both sounds – really wanted to pick a split, because of the stat about the BAFTA sound winner almost always winning at least one of the sound categories at the Oscars, but it turns out I probably would have split them wrong anyway, so I’m not entirely unhappy that I went with the safer option this time), makeup (the stats said something risky – Joker) and visual effects (the stats had The Irishman as a slight favorite over 1917, with the others far, far behind).
It was nice to get film editing right so easily (the stats were quite clear), even though others seemed to have big doubts about what to pick in that category, as well as production design, costumes, sound editing, score, documentary and animated feature, all of which were also categories with a lot of options, seemingly, if one paid no mind to stats. And, of course, picture, which had Parasite as a fairly clear (even if not large) favorite. My unofficial predictions (which, it should be said, are also based in large part on the stats, since they’re usually just me going with the second or third favorite according to the stats I use – which may well not be the complete set of stats available, given how little time I dedicate to categories outside of the big one each year – instead of the top favorite, for various reasons) went 21/24, the same score I got in the Awards Daily contest. I had 1917 in the two sound categories and visual effects, Nefta Football Club in live action short and Hair Love in animated short – those were the only differences compared to my stats predictions. I stuck to Joker in makeup, which felt like a mistake, but I was too lazy (and there was just too little time available – none, really, given how late I completed my research and how from there on it was a mad rush to get everything done that needed to be done before the ceremony) to make a correction post, so I didn’t… I did go with Bombshell there in the Awards Daily contest, though. (And in 2-3 others.)
As for Oscar bets, I made a profit of almost exactly 25% of my total investment. (Roughly $18 profit. I don’t bet a lot – I can’t really afford to take such risks, plus I don’t really want to.) Apart from last year, when I lost a very small amount (and percentage of the stake), I’ve always made a profit on Oscar bets. Goes to show (yet again) just how strong Oscar stats are… All of the profit this year was due to this one bet on Parasite to win both Best Picture and Best Director, which I made at the last moment because the odds were just far too appealing (17 to 1) – I also made one on Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood to get the same two awards, which gave even better odds (127 to 1). As I said elsewhere, I entered six Oscar contests and got one first place (which was actually second place, behind the site owner who, amazingly, finished first, one point ahead of me – categories were assigned various point values -, but was ineligible for the prize) for a $50 Amazon gift card. Strangely, that was, apart from one where I really went crazy and made all kinds of out there picks, the contest in which I got the fewest categories right (18/24)… But I had Parasite there for picture and, apart from director, I only missed techs and shorts, which ended up scoring me enough points. The standings are here:
https://funeratic.com/thorough-movie-reviews/predict-the-oscars?formsuccess=register
I did not, however, pick Parasite in picture at Awards Daily (went with insurances and intuitive predictions a lot in this one – and figured picture was too important for me to go with my intuitive prediction, which was still Parasite, instead of the insurance pick), which cost me at least a tie for first. I only missed picture, director and sound editing here (went with 1917 in the sounds).
A few notes on the other categories besides Best Picture and the stats situation for each:
– Picture, as I said, I will address in a separate post. The four acting categories, cinematography and international feature were all either locks or near-locks and everybody knew it (and the stats agreed), so there’s nothing to discuss there.
– Director was far from a lock (in fact, Mendes was probably not even the favorite, in hindsight), and this is very easy to prove: only 1/86 (now 1/87) Best Director winners had been snubbed in both editing and all acting categories before (the exception happening in 1950), for a 99% stat with a huge sample (as far as these things go), whereas a DGA+GG+BAFTA directing winner had lost the Oscar 1/8 times (if we don’t count the time Affleck won all of those for Argo and was snubbed at the Oscars) since BAFTA has been a precursor to the Oscars, for only an 88% stat with a much, much smaller sample – and the time the DGA+GG+BAFTA directing winner lost the Oscar was one of the only two times that director did not also win the Critics Choice (Ang Lee in 2001 – lost the Critics Choice to Soderbergh), which Mendes also kinda’ didn’t this year, at least not outright. Even factoring in that Bong only tied him at Critics Choice (as well as the BAFTA voting procedure changing in 2012 or 2013 or whenever it was, exactly), it’s actually quite clear which of these two stats is stronger, and it’s not the one pointing towards Mendes winning… (Even if we think it’s not clear… well, then it’s not clear, and Mendes and Bong look roughly equally likely to win.) It was really silly of me to rush the research and conclusions for this category – I blame the short season, honestly, because I really never had a moment to breathe, especially over the last 2-3 weeks. I could have made the greatest stats call I’d ever made (even better than Colman last year and such). The stats still made that call, though, which I’m quite happy about – I was just in too much of a hurry to read them properly. Lesson learned, hopefully…
– In the screenplay categories the stats agreed with most people’s predictions (and the eventual winners), so not much to discuss there either. Likewise for original score and documentary short. SAG+WGA wins resulting in a screenplay win at the Oscars each time goes to 12/12 – that’s the only observation worth making, probably.
– For film editing Ford v Ferrari was a clear favorite because a) BAFTA was already as good a predictor as ACE, if not better and b) all the rest had major snubs to contend with, including Parasite (no BAFTA nomination, no sound mixing nomination – the last 12 film editing Oscar winners had all had that one) and Jojo Rabbit (the sound mixing one plus no Critics Choice editing nomination and no Gold Derby Awards nomination in that category either – all Oscar winner have had it, since Gold Derby has been voting on awards).
– In production design, Parasite had no BAFTA nomination plus it was contemporary (those almost never win), and 1917 had no BAFTA costume design nomination (also an important one for production design winners at the Oscars, most of the time) and had won none of the ADG categories (which most Oscar winners here do), leaving Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood as the (again fairly clear) stats favorite.
– Costume design was trickier. Little Women’s CDG snub was bizarre (I honestly can find no better explanation than its being a late-breaker); it also had no production design nomination at the Oscars. However, that one’s not a very prohibitive stat at all, and Jojo Rabbit, whose CDG win is less predictive than BAFTA, in general, had been snubbed by the BFCA, by whom 10/10 Oscar winners in this category had at least been nominated. Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood was the more plausible alternative, but it hadn’t won anything, and 15/17 Oscar costume design winners (in the Gold Derby era) had won either the BAFTA, the Critics Choice or the Gold Derby Award in this category. Elizabeth: The Golden Age had won the Satellite Award for costumes and Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them had won the BAFTA for production design – Once didn’t win either of those. So, I decided that Little Women’s CDG snub was probably a timing fluke (it was also not a killer, there had been several exceptions in the past, even if not recently) and, since the production design nomination stat also has plenty of exceptions, the win stat seemed stronger. (Yes, I spent more time pondering the stats balance for Best Costume Design than for Best Director – I am that dumb…)
– A lot of the same stats were in play for both sound editing and sound mixing. The CAS nomination is important for both and 1917 (the BAFTA sound winner) didn’t have it, which is why my official prediction was Ford v Ferrari (the MPSE Effects/Foley and CAS winner), although the fact that the BAFTA sound winner had won at least one of the sound Oscars 11 of the last 12 years gave me pause, and I really wanted to predict some sort of split because of it. I probably would have picked the wrong split, though, because the CAS nomination stat was stronger for sound mixing.
– Song was fairly straightforward: all songs that had won both the Critics Choice and the Golden Globe and been nominated for the Oscar had prevailed, and Rocketman has now done just that itself. It also won the Gold Derby Award and the Satellite Award. True, it had no other Oscar nominations (although Egerton I’m sure was close), which is why Stand Up (which did, and wasn’t snubbed anywhere) and, I guess, even Into the Unknown, could also win, but that wasn’t enough reason to make it the favorite. The win stat was on 100% here and the snub stat, obviously, was nowhere near as strong as the aforementioned directing one.
– The reasons I went with Joker in makeup were a) the last seven Best Picture nominees to be included in this category had won it (although maybe Joker wouldn’t have made it with only three slots available, as had been the case until this year) and b) the last six winners of the Best Period and/or Character Make-Up guild award had also won the Oscar (including Suicide Squad). None of these were particularly strong stats, though (the first one has got several exceptions before this just-broken 7/7 streak, and the second is based on a very small sample), so Bombshell’s wins were maybe ultimately more important – I kinda’ rushed this one, too. There was just so little time!…
– In visual effects The Irishman and 1917 were way ahead of the rest, because of not just the VFXS supporting win and the BAFTA effects win, respectively, but also their screenplay, production design and cinematography nominations (none of the other three had even a single one of these, not even Critics Choice and Gold Derby effects winner Avengers: Endgame), which also correlate very well with the VFX Oscar win. The Irishman was a favorite due to 1917 not having either the VFXS supporting win or the VFXS nomination in the main category (16 of the last 17 Oscar winners had had one or the other). But it seems the BAFTA win should, perhaps, weigh more – unclear.
– Documentary was a lot easier to call, stats-wise. There has been no documentary winner not predominantly in the English language since at least 2006. Also, Honeyland had missed at BAFTA and ACE and wasn’t among the DocNYC mentions, and For Sama somehow didn’t make the Critics Choice Best Documentary lineup (even though there are at least 10 slots there – didn’t count) and also missed at both DGA and ACE. The Cave and The Edge of Democracy had similar or even worse snub issues, so American Factory, the DGA, LAFCA and DocNYC winner, was the clear favorite.
– Also fairly trivial was animated feature, where no winner ever has been snubbed by either BAFTA, BFCA, HFPA, Gold Derby, PGA, ACE or CAS. Klaus, Missing Link and I Lost My Body were each snubbed by at least four of those groups, and How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World was snubbed by BAFTA and ACE, which is more than enough anyway, so the easy pick was Critics Choice, Gold Derby, PGA, ACE and CAS winner Toy Story 4. The ACE winner in this category has won the Oscar every single time it’s been nominated. (I think it’s 10/10 now.)
– Some of the more useful stats that didn’t work out in the short categories this year were the longest title stat in live action short (all other stats held) and the IMDb rating/number of other wins and nominations stats in animated short. Again, compared to some of the stats one can use for the other categories, these are mediocre, at best, and I only use them when I’m not sure between a few shorts or if they all point away from a certain contender.
Thanks, Sasha. It’s been v fun to chat on this community albeit intense sometimes, with differences of opinions and personal offenses taken every now and then. It’s now back to the real world after the end of the Oscars.
The one thing I disagree with is the removal of the international feature/foreign film category. We forget that for every film like Parasite and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, there are many more tremendously well-made foreign language films that never get the chance to even be talked about, let alone seen or distributed. An Oscar nomination provides a well-needed platform for these films to go global and find a wider audience.
I’m copying and pasting what someone wrote on another forum because I wholeheartedly agree with this:
“The whole aim of the award is to celebrate films from other countries in their own, pure regard. Their cultural experiences, point of views and forms of storytelling are unique that you won’t find in films here in the US. Also a lot of countries outside the US look forward to competing in this category because it’s the only way they could get any recognition and is nearly impossible to penetrate the US market. Some of the best foreign films I’ve discovered was by checking out what films were nominated. You remove that and you’ll strip away the essence and respectability of the Oscars.“
Over the past few years alone, you have great films, masterpieces in my opinion, nominated in this category that would otherwise have next to zero chance of being elevated onto a Best Picture: Shoplifters, Ida, The Square, Cold War, Son of Saul, Pain and Glory, A Separation, to name a few. And these are the more renowned ones! Removing this category is not going to elevate their chances at a Best Picture.
It’s the same reason why documentaries deserve their own category despite films like Honeyland, For Sama and American Factory also being eligible for Best Picture this year. Just because every now and then you have a Hoop Dreams or a Bowling for Columbine which got elevated into the main conversation by virtue of their transcendent popularity doesn’t mean all other documentaries now compete on the same footing or cease to matter. Incidentally both failed to receive Best Picture nominations. The majority of foreign language films will continue to struggle. If we now believe a Pedro Almodovar, a Michael Haneke, a Hirokazu Kore-eda, or an Asghar Farhadi Film now compete on the same footing as a Steven Spielberg or a MARTIN Scorsese film, just because Parasite has won Best Picture for the 1st time in 92 years, we are kidding ourselves.
Agreed, as much as Parasite’s win was momentous, I believe that this is (for now) just an anomaly than the standard. Remember, we still have not had an POC win Best Actress in a Leading Role since 2002. So as much as it is astonishing that progress has been made, the Oscars still have a long way to go. It would be nice to see in the future not only foreign films get Best Picture, I would like to see them give it to an animated film, documentary, a sci-fi, or even a superhero film (as long as it is very good). Progress and change is not a zero sum game.
PS: As a Filipino American, I hope the Philippines can at least compete in the Best International Feature category in my lifetime.
I’ve been with you since day one of O***r W**c*! I can’t thank you enough for your intrespect. Your contribution to cinephiles is appreciated immensely.
Thank you for all these 20 years. The ups and downs. The exchange. The feeling of a community. Thank you.
Jesus Alonso, I had a great time chatting with you as always! Take care and I can’t wait to exchange comments with you again next season!