In general, AwardsDaily has never really had traditional Oscar predictions the way other sites have.
When I started my site in 1999 I started it not to predict the Oscar race but to track it. Predictions came at the end of the year. But as Oscar sites bloomed all over the internet and at major outlets, so did what we all called “site unseen predictions.” Some people still grapple with this – like Anne Thompson at Indiewire who never predicts anything she hasn’t seen.
But mostly, no one really sticks to this because no one really cares, because the stakes are so low. Publicists and pundits work together to build a slightly smaller pile of hand picked films that the Oscar voters then sift through. They can’t watch everything so people like me see the movies first and decide for them which ones they really need to watch. That is as far as it goes. And sometimes the system fails, as it did with Bohemian Rhapsody. If Golden Globe voters pick movies the pundits have ignored, that film instantly becomes a movie Oscar voters will at least watch.
But desperate times call for desperate measures. So we are beginning a couple of new things – among them, giving out early Oscar predictions. Mark Johnson will also be writing his own column with various predictions and between the two of us and the Oscar Squad we should be offering more interesting reading vis a vis predictions.
So, the predictions are in the menu bar – but so far, here is Best Picture, Best Actor and Actress, and Best Director.
David Fincher‘s Mank (Netflix)
Aaron Sorkin‘s The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Paul Greengrass‘s News of the World (Universal)
Chloe Zhao‘s Nomadland (Searchlight)
Steven Spielberg‘s West Side Story (Fox)
Liesl Tommy‘s Respect (MGM)
Joel Coen‘s The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24)
Sofia Coppola‘s On the Rocks (A24)
George Clooney‘s The Midnight Sky
Tom McCarthy‘s Stillwater (Focus)
Chris Nolan‘s Tenet (WB)
Ron Howard‘s Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
Taika Watiti‘s Next Goal Wins (Searchlight)
Francis Lee‘s Ammonite (Neon)
Michael Showalter‘s The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight)
Mike Mills‘ C’Mon, C’Mon (A24)
Aaron Schneider‘s Greyhound (Apple)
Kevin Macdonald‘s Prisoner 760 (BBC)
George C. Wolfe‘s Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Lila Neugebauer‘s Red, White and Water (A24)
Lee Daniels‘ The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Paramount)
Ryan Murphy‘s The Prom (Netflix)
Regina King‘s One Night in Miami (Amazon)
Florian Zeller‘s The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Wes Anderson‘s The French Dispatch (Searchlight)
I am also keeping an eye on films that fall outside the boundaries of Oscar – like the film Spree, which I think is the best screenplay so far this year and one of the most clever satires I’ve seen in a while. I do not know if anyone else agrees but I personally find it deserving of consideration for screenplay by Eugene Kotlyarenko, Gene McHugh and Actor, Joe Keery.
Top Tier (Sight unseen)
Gary Oldman, Mank
Tom Hanks, News of the World
Denzel Washington, MacBeth
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Delroy Lindo, Da Five Bloods
Bill Murray, On the Rocks
George Clooney, The Midnight Sky
Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon, C’mon
Tahar Rahim, Prisoner 760
Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins
Eddie Redmayne, Trial of the Chicago 7
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Kate Winslet , Ammonite
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Jessie Buckley, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Olivia Colman, The Father
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Jodie Foster, Prisoner 760
Rashida Jones, On The Rocks
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes Of Tammy Faye
This is how I see it right now but I will keep updating these pages and adding more over the coming weeks.