The new normal of the Best Picture race is that it is both more insular and more democratized. The majority of people will be able to freely watch the contenders if they choose, and things will get very tribal very fast. If you thought Oscar teams were intense before, where only the bloggers and critics were in on it, now it will be expanded to include all of Twitter – and that is going to be surreal. What will be motivating people, I suspect and predict, will have less to do with how good a film is but rather, how good supporting each film makes people feel. In other words, if social media is designed to broadcast our identities out to the world, what we choose to support defines who we are.
It’s important to remember that the race isn’t really going to get started in earnest until after New Year’s. Yes, that’s after October, after the election in November, after Christmas – after lockdown maybe hopefully? After a vaccine maybe hopefully? A lot of stuff is going to change. We are all still conditioned to see the race the way we’ve been seeing it for the past ten years since the date was pushed back one month (this was around 2003). That means right now we are focused on the early contenders more than anything. We do not know what will happen in the next few months or even in April of next year when the Oscars are held.
As of now, Chloe Zhao’s Nomadland is the film to beat, I’d expect, given both who made it and its subject matter. The film is deserving on its own but no doubt supporting it will make people feel good because it will feel like activism and progress. Supporting that movie and the ascent of it means Hollywood and the Oscars are a little more equal and diverse and that helps Hollywood and the Oscars release some of the tension aimed their way. Thus, they could feel slightly more motivated in that direction. That’s only unless something unequivocal isn’t released to top it. But for now it has what it takes to go all the way.
It also seems, at least right now, that Aaron Sorkin’s The Trial of the Chicago 7 will find a place in the Best Picture and Screenplay lineups, at the very least. It’s possible Sorkin lands in Director too but that one is less certain at the moment, given who is coming down the pike. But for now, it’s safe to put him there until other films are seen.
What Chicago 7 has going for it is that it’s driven by a strong ensemble of actors. Frank Langella is the standout, in my own opinion, but Eddie Redmayne is also memorable as Tom Hayden, as is Sacha Baron Cohen as Abbie Hoffman. But Langella has more of the script to chew through as opposed to the others who really are part of an ensemble work.
Chicago 7 is ideal because it reflects the ideology of the Rob Reiner left at the moment – in that they were part of the counterculture revolution of the 1960s and feel as though they are living through a repeat at the moment. So whatever feels “anti Trump” is going to do well with them. The Academy has gone through phases of really taking to overtly political and “preachy” films like this one and then also rejecting them for that reason. There was a long spell where any film deemed “preachy” would be dismissed. But I suspect we are not living through one of those moments. “The resistance” seems primed to embrace anything that seems like a “fuck you” to Trump and/or the GOP. Sorkin himself is clearly aiming in this direction when he has a lawyer refer to the Chicago 7 as the “radical left,” a term Trump uses often.
And remember, we are in an election year – one of the most intense elections in my lifetime. 1968 might have been another like that but that was the year before 1969 when the Manson family committed those gruesome murders using much of the same language of the counterculture – like cops are pigs, etc. And that pretty much killed off much of the 1960s. The 1970s took care of the rest and by 1980 everything swung right – politics and culture, at least enough to influence movies and music.
Seeing our right now as similar to 1968 is probably an argument for Trump to win again, as Nixon did back then but hey – you never know how it will turn out. The one thing we do know is how people react to the Chicago 7 will have much to do with how they see this election, the recent protests and the eventual outcome of November 3.
Nomadland has no such requirements. It is a film that mostly exists outside politics of Left Twitter, though it does speak to why someone like Trump rose at all. It shows those left behind by politics and left behind by the American economy who are existing on the fringes. Mostly, though, it is just a beautiful, moving story that will not alienate people by forcing them to take a side. That, along with the possibility of a film directed by a woman winning (only one has in 93 years) could prove a powerful motivator.
To that end, our radar will be especially attuned towards films directed by women & women of color. That will be a need that will have to be addressed considering it was an issue in the director race last year, and the fact that no women got in have partly motivated the inclusion requirements put in place. In other words, unless they make their choices diverse and inclusive they will be forced to do so. But last year’s offerings were not good enough to best the top five in that all of those nominated had won a major award heading into the race, whether the Golden Lion or the Golden Globe, etc.
But this year I expect it won’t turn out that way. Voters will align behind one name early and carry that name through the season and the first name that feels strong enough right now is Chloé Zhao. But Sofia Coppola’s On the Rocks is about to screen and perhaps that will also be strong.
For now it seems like two safe bets for Best Picture right now are Nomadland and the Trial of the Chicago 7. But there have to be formal reviews of the latter to compete with the raves for the former. Obviously, money will play no role in this year’s race.
“What will be motivating people, I suspect and predict, will have less to do with how good a film is but rather, how good supporting each film makes people feel”
Every Oscars Ever
I saw an early screener of Body Swap and think it has a legit chance in a light year. Maybe Independent Spirit
‘The Devil all the time’ is not good enough to be a contender? Because It’s the best picture I have seen in 2020 so far
I was lucky enough to catch a festival screening of Nomadland last night and ever since I’m kind of unable to stop thinking about it. Absolutely exceptional, the definition of great cinema and those are words I don’t use that lightly. Frances Mcdormand ‘s turn is simply mesmerizing, if she doesn’t win Best Actress there should be a riot.
I read the book a year or two ago and never stop telling people to read it. It’s amazing. When McDormand was announced to play Fern I predicted then and there she’d win her third. And I said then too that the movie shouldn’t be discounted to win either. It’s incredibly timely for this country.
The entire story is incredibly timely and just devastatingly powerful. Frances is an absolute BEAST in this again acting-wise. I struggle to single out a scene of hers in the film that could be used as a clip for the Oscars. Her entire performance is one for the ages. Her work in this and the film as a whole is just monumental.
I think all 3 (Picture, Director and Actress) have a great shot but what are Oscars if not political and, just by looking at Emmy’s, black artists and movies will be more favored this time around than they ever were. So whether these 3 or any of them keeps the frontrunner status and make it over the finishing line depends on still unseen movies with black cast, black directors. Da 5 Bloods is too weak critically and audience didn’t seem to like it much either (given Audience scores) so outside of Lindo there’s no hope for this one to upset. One Night In Miami got solid reviews including for King but nowhere near Zhao’s raves. So all eyes are now on Judas and the Black Messiah, Ma Rainy’s Oscar Bait, USA vs Billie Holiday, Respect.
Unlike others, I am excited for this awards season, as there might be some really exciting choices. There are still plenty of movies to choose from – smaller ones but nonetheless exciting.
But I can agree with some of the comments that Tenet and Da 5 Bloods were just not that good. I don’t see them happening even in a year like this one. Probably Tenet and No Time to Die can win some tech awards considering.
Given so many are being pushed to next year, I think leaving Soul off of any Best Picture lineup is shortsighted.
Yes, it was definitely an oversight. Way to drag me JP not once but twice ? I mean ffs 😀 Jk.
Lol
Is Mank or The Trial of Chicago 7 Netflix’s priority number one??
On paper Mank. However if critics embrace Chicago 7 more, this could clearly change.
OK so West Side Story is out and from Netflix a trio of completed films (Malcolm & Marie, Bruised, Blonde) are rumoured to be pushed to next season.
With today’s news of the tentpole exodus of the fourth quarter, I think there is a strong chance that No Time to Die and Dune will follow and may not be released in time for this season, either. Dune especially since it had reshoots done as recently as last month so this could be the perfect excuse to give Villeneuve more time for post-production without anyone assuming the film is in trouble (I am sure it isn’t, Villeneuve is brilliant).
Also still no new release date for The French Dispatch (maybe hoping for a debut in Cannes ?) nor Promising Young Woman. With latter, one could expect / hope for a VOD release this season but the tricky thing there is that if the studio / filmmaker / star / producers had been OK with skipping the theatrical circuit, then the film probably would have been released already. It is an indie that was scheduled for April after all.
Still zero breadcrumbs on Next Goal Wins and Passing, either, making me think that both look more likely to be released for next season, as well.
Another studio release that could be in trouble is Happiest Season (Nov20) however it is Holiday themed so if it is pushed to next season it will have to be delayed by a whole year for its new date to make sense so my guess would be that it either stays put or gets an early VOD release this season.
The remaining films in the mix, scheduled for theatrical runs (The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Respect, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, French Exit) are all scheduled for January/February and while I don’t know if they will be better off in any way as far as the second wave goes, I don’t want to look that far ahead. I will say though that I could easily see Everybody’s Talking About Jamie going to VOD or a streamer AND being the big surprise of the season.
The Duke could be also a sleeper hit, as well, it is headlined by beloved Oscar winning legends (Jim Broadbent, Helen Mirren), seems to be the kind of high-end British crowdpleaser the Academy tends to embrace more often than not, it was just acquired by the more than capable Sony Pictures Classics and it debuted on the festival circuit to rave reviews.
Meanwhile there are a few promising titles that could still pop up til 28th of February but are currently heavily under the radar : Supernova, Stillwater, Those Who Wish Me Dead, Wild Mountain Thyme, The Humans.
So I guess at the end of all this, the one question that remains : what would happen if all these films including the presumed heavyweight trio (Dune, The French Dispatch, West Side Story) indeed got collectively pushed to next season ? My guess is the BP race would end up looking something like this :
BP Top 5 / BD
Nomadland / Chloe Zhao
Mank / David Fincher
The Trial of Chicago 7 / Aaron Sorkin
One Night in Miami / Regina King
The United States vs. Billie Holiday / Lee Daniels
BP #6-10 / BD Alternatives
The Father / Florian Zeller
The Duke / Roger Michell
Da 5 Bloods / Spike Lee
Ammonite / Francis Lee
French Exit / Azazel Jacobs
Potential Surprises in BP / BD
The Prom / Ryan Murphy
Hillbilly Elegy / Ron Howard
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom / George C. Wolfe
Happiest Season / Clea Duvall
Everybody’s Talking About Jamie / Jonathan Butterell
Pieces of a Woman / Kornel Mundruczo
Respect / Liesl Tommy
The Woman in the Window / Joe Wright
The Little Things / John Lee Hancock
Let Him Go / Thomas Bezucha
That would be 20 titles total and quite the reach with several of them. 9 of the 20 are from streamers.
Thoughts ?
Still predicting Ammonite in Picture??
Jesus.
Yes, I have this thing when I do NOT rule out a critically acclaimed (80 RT, 75 MC) prestige film with not one but two Academy darling lead actresses (11 nominations between them, all the more impressive considering their average age is 36) 5 months before the cutoff date in a year when most of the big shots could be easily pushed to next season thus giving a better chance to exactly the kind of smaller arthouse fare that Ammonite is.
I also don’t really get your outrage, I have it at #9 and at the moment that ranking is more than reasonable. I mean in your top9 you have 5 Netflix films and 4 films nobody has seen yet but apparently I am out of line for having a film that was already established to be respectable the very least, at #9 ? Come on …
I think no Soul in your top 20 is insane. 😉
I KNOW 🙂 I forgot !
What about One Night in Miami? Seems to me that’s another front runner.
Nomadland
One Night in Miami…
Trial of the Chicago 7
Maybe Pieces of a Woman?
I should add The Father to this list
There’s no such thing as another frontrunner. Only one is the frontrunner. The rest are runner ups. 🙂 That’s why movies hate to get that status early cause everyone is out to get the frontrunner. 🙁
One Night in Miami got solid reviews but nowhere near Nomadland. Even though Oscars will be heavily influenced by BLM, King win over Zhao wouldn’t be justified. Zhao is just way ahead in reception and would be a historical win in its own right. If a black director upsets her, cause I really don’t think a white one will plus, as already stated, she has the reviews, he/she would need similar type of rapturous response. Which King doesn’t have.
Tenet and Da 5 Bloods are mediocre at best. I certainly hope this last quarter of the year brings quality, otherwise I really hope there are no oscars in 2021
I have to say I had great respect for Da 5 Bloods the first time around but I am not sure it held up all that well when I watched it for a second time. It was also released early by regular awards season standards but with the two months extension, it will almost feel like a spring release by the cutoff date (28 February).
Reviews are strong though and Spike Lee is a legend so if Netflix puts its expensive marketing muscle behind it, it could still make a proper showing on Nominations Morning. However if Netflix ends up having different priorities (Mank ? The Trial of the Chicago 7 ? maybe even one of the Hillbilly – Prom – Ma Rainey trio ?) then D5B could be in trouble.
Tenet really was not good. Such a shame.
it was bad. it was really about nothing and characters didn’t register. I thought the twist was that Branagh was teleported from a different movie cause his overacting didn’t match anything else. Alas it wasn’t so.
There have been lean years throughout Oscar history.
Production slacked off so much during WWII, the Academy recalibrated from its early decades of nominating 8 or 10 films for Best Picture and cut back to 5 per year for the next 60 years.
I would name some fairly thin and downright shallow years, but I don’t want to get mired down in hearing how those years had a handful of great movies too.
Because that’s the whole point. We don’t need to match the rich abundant heights of the late 1930s or the mid-1970s before we have an Oscar Night worth watching.
We only have to have 5 nominees better than The Blind Side or Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. We only have to have one or two movies better than Argo or Crash.
The Oscars are always a snapshot of the year in film. For better or worse, yes?
How about let’s wait to see what gems might emerge that would otherwise get buried in a “normal” year.
like 1956, the year big gaudy shitshow nominees like Around the World in 80 Days and The Ten Commandments pranced around — and classics like The Searchers, The Killing, Invasion of the Body Snatchers, Written on the Wind, and Bus Stop were virtually ignored (because they weren’t considered “important enough.”)
I agree completely. Just because the season is destined to be without its usual big studio plays, doesn’t mean it will be a season without plenty of brilliant films. Only the smaller brilliant ones that usually wouldn’t get a first let alone second look from the Academy, will now be properly in consideration. As they should always be but rarely are. Small mercies.
“How about let’s wait to see what gems might emerge that would otherwise get buried in a “normal” year.” Exactly! You hit it on the head.
Well, even if you were to argue that (I agree on Tenet, not on Da 5 Bloods), there are many other movies from 2020 so far that are very deserving
Da 5 Bloods is a masterpiece. And it couldn’t come in a more poignant time, don’t dismiss it. I was almost tempted to put it at the same level of Do the Right Thing, but Lee’s latest doesn’t have the “surprise” factor he used to have… now it is not a surprise that Lee would deliver a total masterpiece…
“Tenet”… I haven’t seen it, and seriously, not interested… the premise reminds me SO MUCH of the final battle in Scott Derrickson’s “Doctor Strange”, that I really, really thought “rip off” since the trailer, and given how mediocre Nolan is, style over substance, on his screenplays… not really interested.
yep this. mediocrity abound. should not be in the Picture/Director conversation.
1. Mank
2. Nomadland
3. The Trial of Chicago 7
4. One Night in Miami
5. The Father
6. Da 5 Bloods
7. The United States vs Billie Holiday
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
9. Hillbilly Elegy