2020 has to be, without a doubt, one of the most difficult years in recent memory to be living through. Where to even start, honestly. We prop up our battered conventions in hopes of things seeming sort of, kind of “normal,” but everyone knows better. Our new reality dictates that nothing is very easy to understand or navigate.
And that includes the Oscar race.
Either which way, there will supposedly be a list of films that will be named as “best” of the year. The Academy will still be implementing the shorter ballot method this year, allowing voters to choose only 5 or more. Next year they will have to put down ten titles. I expect, although I do not know for sure, that this impacts online voting with how many slots voters are required to fill vs. how many they can leave blank. I know there are some voters who refuse to put down more than just one. They pick the one movie they think is best of the year and leave it at that.
But let’s just run down what we know so far this year, what has been seen, what hasn’t, what we expect is coming, etc. At the end I will predict a solid ten that I think, right now, have the best shot.
Early release notables
Some of these are being predicted by pundits and some aren’t. I’m just laying out the films I think made an impact either because I saw them and liked them or because I think they did well somewhere – not just with critics, but with audiences too.
Nomadland – a film that would have gotten the Telluride treatment if Covid hadn’t eaten Telluride and seems to be, right now, the de facto frontrunner to win Best Picture. A dreamy meditation on a nomadic woman (Frances McDormand) who has taken to the road as a way of escaping a life she left behind. Good stuff, top to bottom. Adapted, directed and edited by Chloe Zhao.
The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Netflix’ Big Oscar Movie at the moment. Written and directed by Aaron Sorkin, with a large cast of very strong performances involving a most timely subject.
The Father – Seen at Sundance and without a doubt one of the best films of the year. Absolute perfection from start to finish, brilliantly directed and acted, with a strong Best Actor contender in Anthony Hopkins.
One Night in Miami – Regina King’s film about the night several cultural icons gathered as friends to discuss their future, their ideas and themselves. Beautifully made with dazzling performances across the board.
Minari – Also seen at Sundance. From writer/director Lee Isaac Chung and starring Steven Yeun, Yeri Han, Alan Kim, Noel Kate Cho, and Yuh-Jung Youn.
Tenet – Christopher Nolan’s film did not have a chance to make the kind of theatrical impact his films usually do to launch them into the Best Picture race. Some movies really need the box office to push them through and this is one of them.
Promising Young Woman – Seen at Sundance, made a big impression with those who saw it and especially in Carey Mulligan’s performance.
On the Rocks – Sofia Coppola’s film starring Bill Murray, who is great in the role of the lonely father who mildly disrupts his daughter’s life to spend more time with her.
Da Five Bloods – Spike Lee’s very early-seen film with a strong performance by Delroy Lindo about a group of men who travel back to Vietnam to complete a moral mission, with flashbacks to the war.
The Outpost – Rod Lurie’s exceptional war film of Jake Tapper’s book takes you inside a military operation. The Outpost was supposed to land in theaters but Covid kept it out. It is Lurie’s best film since The Contender and was a film that actually made an impact beyond the confines of the Oscar bubble, which is why I think it’s worth paying attention to.
Spree – I know this film will make my top five by the end of the year. It is a non-traditional Oscar film but it’s one that is smartly written and a dead on satire of the times we’re living through. I would be remiss not to keep pointing it out, regardless of the reviews, which I believe missed the mark.
So those are the films that have already been seen and buzzed. A few of them will make the cut for Oscar. But what other potential gems do we have coming?
Mank – David Fincher’s black and white film about the time Orson Welles asked Herman J. Mankiewicz to write a movie for him and that movie turned out to be Citizen Kane.
News of the World – Paul Greengrass’ post-Civil War western starring Tom Hanks.
The United States vs. Billie Holiday – Lee Daniels’ film about the iconic singer.
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Another highly anticipated film about another musical legend, Ma Rainey featuring Viola Davis and the gone-too-soon Chadwick Boseman.
Next Goal Wins – A soccer movie by Jojo Rabbit’s Taika Waititi.
Respect – Jennifer Hudson stars as Aretha Franklin.
The Prom – Ryan Murphy’s musical starring Meryl Streep, among others.
Stillwater – Matt Damon and Abigail Breslin are father and daughter in a Tom McCarthy crime drama.
Judas and the Black Messiah – Directed by Shaka King, starring Daniel Kaluuya about Fred Hampton and the Black Panther Party.
Hillbilly Elegy – Ron Howard’s film version of the acclaimed memoir starring Amy Adams and Glenn Close.
Pushed to 2021:
Dune
West Side Story
The Tragedy of Macbeth
The French Dispatch
Okay so if I were doing a quick and dirty list of Best Picture contenders, without having seen a large chunk of them, I would likely put it down like this:
Nomadland
The Father
Mank
One Night in Miami
News of the World
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Next Goal Wins
Minari
Judas and the Black Messiah
The good news about this list is that it checks off the boxes of what is required of Hollywood and the Oscars at this point in time. The slate overall is a bit slimmer than we’re used to, which will allow for less juggernaut competition and thus, films that might not have a shot otherwise will likely have a better shot to be represented. It’s probably going to be Gen Z’s favorite Oscar year ever.
I would not be surprised to see Rod Lurie’s The Outpost pop up in a few places as it’s one movie that is really not like any of the others and could stand out for that reason. But for now, I think it’s probably too risky to predict for the Academy.
1. Hopkins
2. Lindo
3. Oldman
4. Hanks
5. Baron Cohen /Yeun
Have ZERO interest in these movies. Only saw Outpost which was great and right up my alley. All the rest, forget it. They can make Something Something Message movies, they can’t make me watch them. Like year, like nominees.
Honestly, the Academies should be cancelled. I went to stream One night in Miami at the Chicago FF and it was “sold out”??? HOW THE HELL DOES A STREAMING MOVIE GET SOLD OUT!!! It’s a STREAMER, that should be playing 24/7 the duration of the FF.
And then I went to look for a FF schedule and there’s nothing up worth viewing.
This is all Fvked up IMO.
And like you, there’s nothing that interest me, maybe 2 or 3 movies. I shy away from Spike’s movies because when I leave the theater, I’m empty and don’t know what the hell I saw and how I’m supposed to feel. Honestly, I think his writing and directing has gotten worse over the years.
One last thought: Advocating for two awards: 1 for streamers and 1 for cinema. To put all of the media into one basket is bastardizing the awards. Just like the Emmies – Streaming shows shouldn’t compete with network TV, and one day someone is going to petition for it.
LOL sold out streaming movie. WTF? That is weird.
I think that, given that streaming is a new medium, neither TV nor cinema, separate award or something will happen down the line. So you are not far off at all.
The streaming title “sold out” because the film festival had to make a deal with the distributors of the film. They may have agreed to pay $1 for 1000 streams, but the price went up after 1000 streams. The distributor may have decided to keep the film buzz-worthy and not permit more than 5000 streams for a single festival. It’s still a marketing game, especially as distribution models are being reworked from being about roll-out releases to locations into digital titles that can be accessed from anywhere.
I do dislike films that exist solely to push through some message, but I truly don’t see a sign of that in most of these films. Nomadland really doesn’t have much of a message. Mank doesn’t seem to have one either. And arguably those two could be called the frontrunners.
I hear you.
Sorry to point the obvious, but Mank is toast. Noms no wins. Too white, too male, too “not message-y”. Sucks but you know Film Twitter and AMPAS. They’ll pay attention to this. Either way, not really my thing. As far as movies about making of a movie go, I love Ed Wood which is highly rewatchable but this doesn’t seem to be that kind of a movie. Nomadland, forget it. I’m sure it’s good but slow burn dramas are not my thing.
I am not into “Nomadland”, “Minari” and “First Cow” type of films too.If the next Oscar is destined to those kind of films, poor Oscar. I agree that “Mank” will be considered too white and too male for this Academy we have today. I agree with basically everything you wrote.
Thank you! Now that Dune departed 2020, there’s no awards hopeful for me to look forward to. It’s for the best for it’ll have a better shot in a less political year.
Based on your comment, you might not want to watch election night results on November 3rd either.
Zzzz still don’t care.
Why The Devil All The Time doesn’t get the recognition that easily deserves in a weird year like this?
Critical consensus.
Based on precedent a contender ideally needs a strong critical consensus and strong Box Office to stay alive, but having at least one of the two is crucial.
The Devil All The Time has neither. It also comes from a studio that has much bigger fishes to fry this season, most notably Mank, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Da 5 Bloods, The Prom, The Midnight Sky
I will say though, it could still get some traction in the acting categories.
Yes, thanks. Good point. But in my opinion is better than two films you mentioned: “The trial if Chicago 7” and the dissapointing “Da 5 bloods”. But as you say could be critical consensus. Let’s wait awards season. It’s only my taste.
I get it, most of the films I love, don’t even come near the Oscar conversation. For what it’s worth, that cast has other stuff this year, too. Tom Holland for example is looking good for Lead Actor consideration for another film, Cherry that will be Apple’s big Oscar play this season.
I think “Da 5 Bloods” is a masterpiece, but “The Trial of the Chicago 7” has the better shot at the SAG Ensemble. For Picture and Director, I think Spike Lee has the better edge, but will need a lot of factors to play its game. I could see “Da 5 Bloods” as a Best Picture / Director / Actor / Screenplay winner, specially if Trump wins the re-election.
Wait, so is there not typically 5 noms from a voter? Yet we’re still using 10 at most or definitively? These rules change every year and it’s so confusing, can anyone clear this up?
What if the campaign narrative of The Father will be about the potential repeat of the Oscar success of The Silence of the Lambs a.k.a. the last film to win picture, director, screenplay, lead actor and lead actress ? I could totally see the film receive these five nominations (and then some), not sure about going all the way though, clearly it is WAY too soon for that kind of talk.
In terms of mood and pace it reminds me of “Amour” – including a french background (in this case, the director). But I agree, looks very promising and could grab those top 5 nominations you mentioned.
I am curious to see the streamer / studio ratio in Best Picture. Right this minute all major streamers have at least one viable contender (Mank, One Night in Miami, Palm Springs, Let Them All Talk, Soul, Cherry), of which I think three are looking very good right now (Mank, One Night in Miami, Soul) with a fourth being a very dark horse with great potential to surprise last minute (Cherry). So if this actually happens, there would be 3-4 BP nominees from streamers out of 8-9, unless of course Netflix manages to get other films in BP, too (The Trial of Chicago 7, Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Midnight Sky, The Prom, Hillbilly Elegy)
The theatrical releases holding down the fort this season seem to be Nomadland (Searchlight), Ammonite (Neon), The Father (SPC), Promising Young Woman (Focus), News of the World (Universal), Happiest Season (Sony), The Personal History of David Copperfield (Searchlight), Everybody’s Talking About Jamie (20th Century), The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Paramount), Tenet (Warner Bros). From this list I think Nomadland is the only one established enough to earn serious consideration this early on although The Father is definitely getting stronger, too, and from the unseen ones if I were a betting man I would think News of the World, The United States vs Billie Holiday , Everybody’s Talking About Jamie could surprise.
So right this minute my guess for BP would be (lots of unseens, so take it with a grain of salt)
EVERYBODY’S TALKING ABOUT JAMIE / 20th Century
MANK / Netflix
NEWS OF THE WORLD / Universal
NOMADLAND / Searchlight
ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI / Amazon
PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN / Focus
SOUL / Disney
THE FATHER / Sony Pictures Classics
THE MIDNIGHT SKY / Netflix
THE UNITED STATES VS BILLIE HOLIDAY / Paramount
Definitely in the mix I’m just not sure about them yet : The Trial of the Chicago 7 (is it loved or respected ?), Da 5 Bloods (too early ?), Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (“just” an acting showcase ?), Cherry (surprise of the season ?).
This really truly might be the year of streaming at the Oscars. Not sure how I feel about that though.
Also, don’t you think Jamie might be… somehow too British for the Academy?
Not sure about Jamie yet, big question mark for sure. It isn’t even the “too British” bit that could be a challenge, I think it is more like it being a Fox film Disney inherited and may not give a fuck about. It is definitely not their “brand” which is why Love Simon moved from Disney+ to Hulu. Oh and by “not their brand” of course I mean they are low key homophobic.
Mostly uninteresting list of contenders so far, with some many very small independent films which I have zero interest in seeing and that probably, on another year, wouldn’t stand a chance of being nominated. I’m am more into mainstream, big films, historical films, period pieces, musical and epics. So, this year will be very harsh for me – and I think for the public in general who is outside film twitter bubble – to enjoy or feel excited for the Oscar. I just hope that in the end, Tenet and Nolan – who is advocating for the survivance of the movie teathers – get the deserved nominations and that, at least, Glenn Close could win her Oscar. This is a very, very, very weak year.Watch a zoom Oscar with these supposed contenders, will be depressing. Many are praising the Emmys, but that show was a big failure in terms of cerimony. It would be nice to see a surprise nomination like “The Invisible Man”. I miss the time when the Oscar were more close to the general audience tastes and not completely guided or influenced by the minds of harsh critics. I miss the time when films like “Jaws”, “The Exorcist”, “Dances with Wolves”, “Schindler’s List”, would compete and win the Oscars because they were good – but also popular.
Let’s see what happens in the end, but what a disappointment!
OMG, I can watch JAWS a dozen times!!!! I love the classic movies. I keep DVDs just for viewing. I have HEAT on DVD, Cleopatra, Ben Hur, Gone with the Wind, Catch me if you can… and so many more that I can see over and over…..I won’t do away with my DVD library.
Saw the new Sorkin film. So few opinions about it actually. Overall: Bad. With one of the very worse performances I’ve see this year. Yes, you guessed it, Eddie Redmayne.
It’s not looking good.
I lost interest around 10 minutes in. Will try again, but damn it looks pretty mediocre.
Yeah that’s a good word for it. I’d go as far as incompetent.
I did finish it and it was quite bad. It had some moments, but mostly it was just a confused, uninteresting mess. Langella was the highlight.
I thought Eddie was fine. But the movie itself isn’t anything special. I don’t get the buzz that the actors are getting with the exception of Frank Langella.
Langella and John Carroll Lynch did a good job. Everyone else is clueless.
I liked the film but in a good not great kinda way. I thought at its best the Sorkin dialogue was sharp and witty and powerful but there were also some moments in the script that were cringe inducing and really contrived and some choices that were actually icky (I’m thinking the flag moment which was all kinds of unnecessary and lazy) some of the directing and editing choices were really questionable too (when I say the fade to black moment I’m sure lots of people will recognise the “wtf why would he do that in that moment” feeling in referring to). But when it worked it did really work and both Langella and Rylance I thought were excellent – I would be more than happy with them getting nominations though that is all I would give it. Even the final speech, as gratuitously heartstring tugging as it is, really worked for me because it was initially set up, scripted and edited really well… Right up until the fists started raising and then the really awkward freeze and then it lost me. I think that’s all vague enough to not need a spoiler tag
Does anybody know if there’s a documentary about the Chicago 7?
I don’t think there is – at least not a definitive one. I scanned through the “cultural representation” section of the Wikipedia page and there isn’t one mentioned there – though there are multiple films and shows that used archival footage of the events and some pieces based entirely on the transcript of the trial.
It’s kinda dissapointing. Yes. In a normal year it would not be oscar worthy, maybe acting has a chance
OH so sorry to hear that about the Chicago 7. Sorkin can be a bit wordy but his films always hold my attention. Oh well, I don’t do Netflix, so I’m not missing anything.
*update* Soul has started the reviews rollercoaster…
RT 100
MC 94
let’s see how it developes.
Yeah it debuted at the BFI London Film Festival a week ago that’s when the embargo ended. Early consensus is very strong and suggests that this could be one of the most acclaimed Pixar titles in the end.
This is strange because it looks like it has a strong shot to get a BP nomination (if it becomes as strongly receives as Inside Out) yet it might also face strong competition from Wolfwalkers in Animated.
Wolfwalkers will be definitely a major threat in Animated Feature and ironically enough, its chances would actually improve if Soul received nominations both in Best Picture and Animated Feature because then it would most likely split votes between its two categories meanwhile Wolfwalkers would only collect votes in one.
While my initial reaction was the same that has almost never actually ended up happening. When a film is in the top teir to win best picture and is in a specific best picture category (animated, foreign, documentary, British film at BAFTAs etc) it pretty much never loses the “lesser” category even though people always bring up the fact that it could – people talked about Parasite losing foreign last year for this reason and Roma too (Roma is a good example having a strong competitor in Cold War) and that just wasn’t going to happen… Films can be nominated in both and lose the specific category but only when they aren’t at the top of the pile and it is likely that the only reason they are in BP is because 5-10% of the academy loved it and very few others will vote for it for a win – even then it happens at BAFTAs (Les Mis in British for example) and at some others a lot but very rarely at the Oscars… I really don’t see Soul losing animated if it follows the trajectory it appears to be following and gets into picture!
But Wolfwalkers is so painfully slow… the worst film I’ve seen from that studio, even if the visuals are pretty magnificent.
Paul Greengrass directed News of the World, not Sam Mendes.
That said, there is only one major flaw in this article. Pixar’s Soul is definitely on track to receive a Best Picture nomination.
agreed… in a narrowed field, Pixar looks like a safe bet
I have the feelig that “The Sound of Metal” may have an outside chance, fuelled by the buzzed Riz Ahmed’s performance. Just a hunch.
It’s a very small film. Ahmed is great, but he doesn’t have the material. His nomination will be an uphill battle.
Maybe not, Best Actor doesn’t seem to be as packed this year as it usually is. Right now we have Anthony Hopkins, Delroy Lindo, most likely Gary Oldman and that’s pretty much it so I think there is definitely some wiggle room here that could help a contender like Riz Ahmed whose film is on the smaller side.
Assuming the trio above will get in, I am very curious who will get the last two slots. I think if News of the World and Cherry get proper raves, Tom Hanks and Tom Holland could be it. VERY baity roles.
Then again if the whispers about Bill Murray going supporting, turn out to be untrue, he could be definitely a player in Lead, too, and I still wouldn’t rule out George Clooney and his December Netflix release The Midnight Sky, either.
A major question mark for me is the Netflix / Chadwick Boseman situation. Will they go for the gold and campaign for him in supporting for Ma Rainey OR will they risk split votes and go for two nominations by placing him in lead for Ma Rainey and in supporting for Da 5 Bloods ? My gut says former but latter wouldn’t surprise me, either.
Biggest dark horse of the season, for me at least, remains Max Harwood.
About Boseman, considering that they also have Lindo in lead, I’d imagine Netflix will want to divide their acting contenders to as many categories as possible
Excellent point. Especially once factoring in last year : Marriage Story was pushed in lead actress, lead actor and supporting actress, The Irishman was pushed in supporting actor. No overlap in the end yet Netflix had nominees in all acting categories.
I’m betting on Kaluuya, if that film comes out. There’s also Trevante Rhodes in Billie Holiday.
It’s not been picked up yet right? I guess it depends strongly on what happens there?