Predictions Friday: November is the New August

The Oscar race is kind of, sort of taking shape at the moment. But there has not yet been the big buzz wave we’d have already experienced by now in an ordinary year. Instead, we’re still in wait-and-see mode. What we do know is that Joe Biden, and not Donald Trump, has won the election and that is going to make a difference in how this race goes. Had Trump won, I would imagine people would have died in the streets fighting this thing out. But as such, he didn’t, and there is a massive sense of relief throughout Hollywood that all is right with the world again.

The only thing we don’t yet know is what happens when Twitter gets involved. Once the announcements start coming down the pike, Twitter and Film Twitter and Activist Twitter will be looking for what is “wrong” and what is “right.” But it’s hard to say right now what that will look like. Obviously had Trump won, the anger would be off the charts, but with Uncle Joe in power, who knows? We’ll have to look at that later.

The films so far that have stood out to me, and regardless of whether they will get awards attention or not, before we get into the critics phase are as follows:

David Fincher’s black and white masterpiece Mank, which is both an homage to his late father but also a love letter to Citizen Kane. It is a film about film itself, about writing, about inspiration. It is, in its own way, a personal film that reflects on the arc of a career, what it all amounts to and what really matters by the end. If Citizen Kane is about how money and power can’t buy things that matter, Mank is about how success can be measured by what a person does have: a family, a great wife, close friendships. They are bookends of what most of us must confront as we make our way, finally, through this life. How do we measure success in the end? Mank makes it pretty clear that getting credit for the the best film ever made is just the period at the end of the sentence, but what mattered was everything that came before.

Chloe Zhao’s deeply moving Nomadland about a wayward woman whose husband dies, upending her life and source of income. What seems like a potential tragedy becomes a blessing in disguise as she takes to the road in a van and along the way finds her purpose. That purpose turns out to be how she connects with people, with other nomads, who find fulfillment in being there for each other. What makes the film great is Frances McDormand’s face, and Zhao’s sensibility of the natural world and how she brings it to life on screen.

Florian Zeller’s The Father is an intricately put together movie that manages to tell a story from the point of view of a man sinking into the depths of dementia. The film reflects what that must feel like and does it seamlessly with a brilliant ensemble led by Anthony Hopkins and Olivia Colman. Of course it’s Hopkins’ show but the film itself is also an achievement of adapting a stage play to the big screen. Despite its experimental structure, it is likely to be a film with broad appeal.

Eugene Kotlyarenko’ Spree is the rare satire in a year of somber and serious films, but it is nonetheless one of the most clever. Young people now come of age amid various types of media that reflect idealized lives that are meant to be real. Everyone is acting in their own movie, their own drama, and most of us just go along with this like it’s all perfectly normal. While Bo Burnham made 8th Grade, which showed the disconnect between an actual life and the life portrayed on YouTube, Kotlyarenko takes it a step further by putting the whole movie, and everything that happens in it, on one screen or another – from cell phones to Go Pros. But somehow he manages to tell a truth about right now that maybe some are starting to think about but few are willing to talk about. It is a thrillingly modern horror film about 2020 probably more than any other.

Emerald Fennell’s strange, creepy, and ultimately unforgettable Promising Young Woman is another standout, whether it, like Spree, gets traction or not. Think of it like a Me Too horror movie. With attitude from top to bottom, Fennell has, I think, a unique eye. Mulligan is fantastic playing a Clint Eastwood type out for revenge. At the very least it ought to be considered for screenplay and actress.

I was also impressed with One Night in Miami, On the Rocks, Pieces of a Woman, Hillbilly Elegy, The Outpost, and The Trial of the Chicago 7, which I will be writing more about in the coming weeks.

The thing to remember is that the race is going to heat up in JANUARY and FEBRUARY because the Oscars aren’t until APRIL, so you have to consider this a very early look at the race, as though it were AUGUST and not November. It’s a mind trick.

Best Picture
Nomadland*
Mank
The Father
One Night in Miami*
The Trial of the Chicago 7
News of the World – not yet seen
On the Rocks*
The United States vs. Billie Holiday – not yet seen
Promising Young Woman*
Pieces of a Woman

(*This would be four films directed by women. I think the most Best Pic has ever had was two in the same year. And again, we have no idea how this will go but just a hunch).

High Potential
Hillbilly Elegy
The Outpost
The Prom – not yet seen
Tenet
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – not yet seen
The Midnight Sky – not yet seen
Next Goal Wins – not yet seen
Ammonite
The Eyes of Tammy Faye – not yet seen
C’Mon, C’Mon – not yet seen
Greyhound – not yet seen
Prisoner 760 – not yet seen