This past week, a few eagerly-awaited movies made landfall. Ryan Murphy’s The Prom, Steven Soderbergh’s Let Them All Talk, and Paul Greengrass’ News of the World. Because the Oscars are still five months away, and because movie theaters, screenings, and premieres are off the table, we don’t have many weathervanes to help us navigate this year.
We think we know what some of the narratives will be heading in, but we can only really guess as to how votes will eventually go down when nominations ballots go out on March 5th. The critics and the Golden Globes and then the industry itself will likely start to narrow things down, but there are so many ways productions and publicity teams could generate momentum and buzz that simply do not exist right now.
We’re a little bit at a loss with no guidelines other than the echo chamber of sites like this one and Twitter to figure out what films are making an impact. Usually we have some sort of audience to bounce off of — whether it be at a festival or in theaters. Movies are, after all, made for audiences.
I guess, for our purposes, we should let our hearts be our guides. What movies are standing out because we really love them? What movies are we remembering? What movies are staying with us? I suppose that will be different depending on the person. We’re looking for a consensus so we’re looking for commonality.
What throws us off is that the critics right now operate very much inside the bubble of Twitter and usually aren’t the best barometers as to how the Oscars might go, and/or the possibilities. I think about movies like Bohemian Rhapsody. Or even Green Book. When you imagine how people connect with films and why they connect with them that is very different from how people on Twitter, bouncing their own impressions off the shared consensus, respond to them. The reason being, how a person likes a movie defines who they are online. When they like something it is a way of expressing who they are to the watercooler collective.
So I would caution against using Twitter as a way to measure buzz. Probably most voters aren’t spending lots of time watching their Twitter scroll. Some might be spending time on Facebook but they’re certainly not gathering at fancy restaurants hanging out with Bong Joon Ho.
All I can really do, all anyone can really do, is tell you what is the best as measured by our own impressions. At least right now. So, to that end, the standouts for Best Picture so far are defined by how they rise above the rest of the offerings in terms of directing, acting, writing and overall delivery. If the awards are meant to be the highest achievement in film of the year, then that is how we must measure them even if awards are often determined by things like how they make us feel. How they make us feel is often defined by the confines of a movie theater. A communal experience is something people take away with them and vote accordingly. Many voters will not experience any communal experiences this year, so that leaves them alone with the movie itself, the advertising and how people like me cover the race.
Of the films I’ve seen so far, the true standouts have been – in order of potential nomination count:
Mank – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Production Design, Editing, Sound, Score, Costumes, Makeup, Visual Effects (maybe)
News of the World – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor, maybe Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Editing, Sound, Production Design
Nomadland – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actress, maybe Supporting Actor, Cinematography, Editing, Score
Minari – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Supporting Actress, maybe Cinematography
The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Supporting Actor, maybe Editing, maybe Costume
The Father – Picture, maybe Director, Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actress
One Night in Miami – Picture, maybe Director, maybe Actor, maybe Supporting Actor, maybe Screenplay, maybe Production Design, maybe Costumes
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Picture, Actor, Actress, maybe Cinematography, maybe Screenplay, maybe Director, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup
Next tier
Hillbilly Elegy – Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Screenplay
On the Rocks – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Supporting Actor
Promising Young Woman – Picture, Screenplay, Actress
Tenet – Picture, Visual Effects, Cinematography, Sound, Production Design
Sound of Metal – Picture, Actor, maybe Director, maybe Supporting Actor
The Outpost – Picture, Supporting Actor, Screenplay, Sound, Editing
Still to see: Midnight Sky, United States vs. Billie Holiday, Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Director
David Fincher, Mank
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Paul Greengrass, News of the World
Florian Zeller, The Father
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Next tier
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Aaron Sorkin, Trial of the Chicago 7
George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Sofia Coppola, On the Rocks
Rod Lurie, The Outpost
Christopher Nolan, Tenet
Best Actor
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Tom Hanks, News of the World
Gary Oldman, Mank
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Next tier
Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami
Colin Firth, Supernova
Delroy Lindo, Da Five Bloods
Joe Keery, Spree
Best Actress
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
Next tier:
Michele Pfeiffer, French Exit
Kate Winslet, Ammonite
Clare Dunne, Herself
Meryl Streep, Let Them All Talk
Rashida Jones, On the Rocks
Best Supporting Actor
Stanley Tucci, Supernova
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Arliss Howard, Mank
Frank Langella, Trial of the Chicago 7
Bill Murray, On the Rocks
Next tier
David Strathairn, Nomadland
Charles Dance, Mank
Sacha Baron Cohen, Trial of the Chicago 7
Mark Rylance, Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Supporting Actress
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Helena Zengel, News of the World
Next tier
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of Woman
Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
Original Screenplay
Mank, Jack Fincher
Soul, Pete Docter, Mike Jones, Kemp Powers
Trial of the Chicago 7, Aaron Sorkin
Promising Young Woman, Emerald Fennell
On the Rocks, Sofia Coppola
Next tier
Never, Rarely, Sometimes, Always, Eliza Hittman
Ammonite, Francis Lee
Adapted Screenplay
Nomadland, Chloe Zhao
News of the World, Paul Greengrass, Luke Davies
The Father, Christopher Hampton
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Ruben Santiago-Hudson
One Night in Miami, Kemp Powers
Cinematography
Mank
News of the World
Nomadland
Emma
Tenet
Editing
Nomadland, Chloe Zhao
Kirk Baxter, Mank
William Goldenberg, News of the World
Trial of the Chicago 7, Alan Baumgarten
The Outpost, Michael Duthie
Production Design
Mank
Emma
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Tenet
News of the World
Sound
Sound of Metal
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
The Prom
Tenet
Costumes
Mank
News of the World
Emma
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mulan
Score
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Soul
Mank
Midnight Sky
News of the World
Next tier:
Promising Young Woman
Nomadland
Trial of the Chicago 7
And that, my friends, is all the news that fit to print.
