In the last gasp of the 2020/2021 Oscar year, there are four films being released, and three of them will likely enter the Oscar race strong. It is a year of not just Black directors telling Black stories but Black female directors telling Black stories. And yes, it sounds strange to categorize because we’re ideally moving to a place where it would not have to be singled out or noticed at all because it would just be how things are. I don’t know if we’re there yet, but since this was the year the Academy made the decision to force inclusion both in narrative films and behind the scenes, it’s worth pointing out the abundance of inclusive productions this year and how many of them are among the best of the year.
Da 5 Bloods – Written and Directed by Spike Lee
One Night in Miami – Written by Kemp Powers, Directed by Regina King
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Written by August Wilson, adapted by Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Directed by George C. Wolfe
Miss Juneteenth – Written and Directed by Channing Godfrey Peoples
Antebellum co-written, co-directed by Gerard Bush, Christopher Renz
The United States vs. Billie Holiday – Adapted Screenplay by Suzan-Lori Parks, Directed by Lee Daniels
Judas and the Black Messiah – Co-written by Will Berson, Co-written and Directed by Shaka King
American Skin – Written and Directed by Nate Parker
Soul – Co-directed by Pete Docter, Kemp Powers, co-written by Docter, Powers & Mike Jones
Worthy of note:
Small Axe – Written and Directed by Steve McQueen but is eligible for the Emmys, not the Oscars
The only one not directed by a Black director is Malcolm & Marie, which is written and directed by Sam Levinson. Otherwise, these are written, co-written and directed by Black filmmakers. Anyone covering the race would be remiss not to notice this wave, or new wave, that’s been happening in American film for a few years now.
Of these films, the strongest contenders for the Oscars, at least right now (I am screening Malcolm & Marie later today) are One Night in Miami, Ma Rainey, United States vs. Billie Holiday and Judas and the Black Messiah. All of these films are potentially Best Picture nominees. When trying to suss out what will get in you are looking for one strong anchor – either a beloved name or well known name or a strong performance, or even a film about a subject people can relate to.
With Judas, it’s about the death of the famous Black Panther murder Fred Hampton (Daniel Kaluuya). That makes it timely to 2020, but also it’s strong across the board with performances, directing, production design, cinematography, etc. The same goes for United States vs. Billie Holiday. Not only does it feature a central performance which is a likely Best Actress contender, Andra Day, but it is about a beloved historical figure – someone whose songs have played a role in defining many of the lives of boomers and the generation right after. Now, the younger generations will be introduced to Billie Holiday and why she was such an important voice.
Telling the history of the Black experience in America from the voices of Black artists is a unique opportunity for those who might not know some of these stories or people. Or only know them through the perspective of White storytellers. They aren’t history lessons, they are perspective shifts. Obviously Hollywood is not ready to fully open its arms to Nate Parker for reasons that don’t need to be gone over again but regardless, his is a powerful up and coming voice in American film and his work will stand on its own in the years to come.
Figuring out how this year’s race is going to go will depend largely on which of these films resonate with voters. But I think it’s safe to say that, due to how things have gone down this year, the Academy is likely going to break many records with nominations across the board.
In terms of figuring out which films are most accessible – probably Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is going to feature prominently, not just because of the two central performances but its overall vibe is, I think, going to appeal to voters. The two strongest besides that in terms of overall story are probably Judas and the Black Messiah and The United States vs. Billie Holiday. Both of these films are personal, visceral and devastating. They both send powerful messages for today’s audiences that make them relevant to right now. And I think Regina King’s popularity among actors helps One Night in Miami, especially with actors.
This isn’t the whole story of 2020, but it’s definitely worth singling out as we head into the thick of the season.
The big question in the coming weeks is what the Golden Globes are going to do to shift the race. Either there will be surprises or it will continue to go the way we all seem to think it will go — with no one having any clue either way.
Right now it looks like if you predicted anything other than films directed by and starring white people, especially white men, you would do pretty well as a general rule. But again, we have to just think about what the best films and performances are with part of our focus on the important push for inclusivity and how that will play into the choices made.
To put it another way, the default in a white majority country and white majority Oscars is always going to be people drawn to stories about people like them, experiences they can relate to. In the past, Oscar voters tended towards only the Black stories that had good white characters in them because that made a lot of people feel better to watch them. That remains true today, in that feeling shame and guilt can only take you so far.
But there has been a significant shift in the white community, on the left at least. It’s probably going to be one of the typically controversial things to say but I’ll say it anyway (blame me, not the other members of this site, please) — for white Americans, fighting racism, or championing antiracism, has taken a prominent place in defining the meaning of their lives. This was analyzed closely at this site, how white millennials without religious upbringings are gravitating more and more towards identifying antiracism as their new religion — in the same way that religious people have found that supporting antiracist causes to be a important way to express the ideals of their religion. You can read up on it and see if I summarized it correctly.
Not to go on and on about it but just to say that the old pattern of what kinds of Black stories are universal among a majority white country or majority white Academy might be shifting ever so slightly. It used to be, as long as white people aren’t blamed the movie should do fine. Like, 12 Years a Slave had the one nice white guy. Like, Moonlight wasn’t overtly about racism. Like The Help, Driving Miss Daisy and Green Book had nice white people in them. Whereas movies like Do the Right Thing or Fruitvale Station did not.
Trump’s rise really changed all of that. Anyone who knows my general thinking on the arc of our society on the left is that, during Obama’s rise and during his administration, many felt that we had built a kind of inclusive utopia that was about everyone’s equal rights, not offending anyone or marginalizing them, etc. When Trump rose to power he was like the Devil coming to Salem. It stoked fear and episodes of mass hysteria. It changed the Oscars, it changed everything. Thus, you could have movies like BlacKkKlansman and Get Out nominated for Best Picture. That was a notable shift from the Academy’s past with regard to Black stories about race.
And finally, it is worth noting that in the wake of the insurgent attack on the US Capitol, the sentiment will likely shift further in this direction, at least in the short run. I keep getting asked that question by Oscarwatchers – how this will play into the Oscars? Well, it will intensify what was already in play with Trump. The Oscars are still a ways away. We don’t know what is yet in store for our country when Biden becomes president. We do not even know if there will be some level of Civil War. It sure feels like it.
So if you’re asking me what I honestly think about these movies – I think they will do a lot better because each of them in their own way describes a lot of what the left is going through right now. The Oscars have not and will not be extending their arms to anyone outside of our ideological bubble at the moment or any time in the foreseeable future.
Given all of these sensitive circumstances, here is how I see it going.
Predictions
Best Picture
Frontrunners
Nomadland
Mank
News of the World
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
The Father
One Night in Miami
Minari
Trial of the Chicago 7
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Judas and the Black Messiah
Strong contenders:
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
On the Rocks
Let Them All Talk
Hillbilly Elegy
The Outpost
Tenet
Best Director
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
David Fincher, Mank
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
Paul Greengrass, News of the World
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Next tier
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Lee Daniels, United States vs. Billie Holiday
Florian Zeller, The Father
Aaron Sorkin, Trial of the Chicago 7
George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Sofia Coppola, On the Rocks
Rod Lurie, The Outpost
Christopher Nolan, Tenet
Best Actor
Frontrunners
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Tom Hanks, News of the World
Gary Oldman, Mank
Delroy Lindo, Da Five Bloods
Strong contenders
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami
Ben Affleck, The Way Back
Steven Yeun, Minari
Colin Firth, Supernova
Best Actress
Frontrunners
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day, United States vs. Billie Holiday
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Strong contenders:
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
Rashida Jones, On the Rocks
Nicole Beharie, Miss Juneteenth
Sophia Loren, A Life Ahead
Meryl Streep, Let Them All Talk
Clare Dunne, Herself
Kate Winslet, Ammonite
Meryl Streep, The Prom
Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma
Best Supporting Actor
Frontrunners
Daniel Kaluuya, Jedas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Arliss Howard, Mank
Bill Murray, On the Rocks
Next tier
Stanley Tucci, Supernova
Frank Langella, Trial of the Chicago 7
Bo Burnham, Promising Young Woman
David Strathairn, Nomadland
Charles Dance, Mank
Sacha Baron Cohen, Trial of the Chicago 7
Mark Rylance, Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Supporting Actress
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Olivia Colman, The Father
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Dominique Fishbeck, Judas and the Black Messiah
Next tier
Helena Zengel, News of the World
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of Woman
Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
Original Screenplay
Promising Young Woman, Emerald Fennell
Mank, Jack Fincher
Soul, Pete Docter, Mike Jones, Kemp Powers
Trial of the Chicago 7, Aaron Sorkin
On the Rocks, Sofia Coppola
Next tier
Never, Rarely, Sometimes, Always, Eliza Hittman
Ammonite, Francis Lee
Adapted Screenplay
Nomadland, Chloe Zhao
News of the World, Paul Greengrass, Luke Davies
The Father, Christopher Hampton
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Ruben Santiago-Hudson
One Night in Miami, Kemp Powers
Cinematography
Mank
News of the World
Nomadland
Emma
Judas and the Black Messiah
Editing
Nomadland, Chloe Zhao
Kirk Baxter, Mank
William Goldenberg, News of the World
Trial of the Chicago 7, Alan Baumgarten
The Outpost, Michael Duthie
Production Design
Mank
Emma
Tenet
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
News of the World
Sound
Sound of Metal
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
The Prom
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Costumes
Mank
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Emma
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mulan
Score
Nomadland
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Soul
Mank
Midnight Sky
Next tier:
Promising Young Woman
Nomadland
Trial of the Chicago 7
Favorites of the last decade:
So, a conversation with Julie a few days ago led to my thinking about and deciding on my personal winners in the top 8 Oscar categories (not from among Oscar nominees alone, of course) for the 2011-2020 Oscar decade (movies released in the U.S. – so as to have an easy-to-verify point of reference – between 2010 and 2019) and I figured I might as well post them here too. I will state, as always, that these are personal favorites, not necessarily (and in many cases most definitely not) those which I consider to be the best of the freshly-departed decade:
Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit (2010) I don’t agree with the category placement at all, but, since these things are always at least somewhat questionable and for simplicity’s sake, for the last few years I’ve just been going with whatever category these performers were placed in at awards shows
Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (2019) I don’t think this is recency bias, because I thought about these long and hard when I made my choices and I think I properly considered all of the other options (in the end, this is just too magnetic, memorable and fun a performance)
Best Actress: Maya Erskine – Plus One (2019) I really struggled with this category more than any other, but, even having recently rewatched the movie, I just can’t find a female lead performance I like more in this time span
Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio – Inception (2010) I struggled here as well but, ultimately, can’t find one I like more than this either (I also love Ellen Page in that movie)
Best Original Screenplay: Inception (2010)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Arrival (2016)
Best Director: Christopher Nolan – Inception (2010) I guess it’s pretty weird to have the same winner for screenplay and director, but not picture (the Oscars did it with The Pianist vs. Chicago, the first example that comes to mind, and probably only a handful of other times in their history – do even critics do this often?)
I hesitated for a while whether to also give my top 10 of the same decade, because said list is, as can be seen plainly, shockingly (even for myself, when I was putting it together) heavy on animation, sci-fi and musicals (all of which I’m of course quite partial to in general) – they, in fact, make up the entire top 9 – and will I’m sure again lead to my preferences being called too “mainstream”, as they have before (which is, by the way, completely justified), but I guess this post would just be incomplete without it, so here it is anyway:
1. Intersteller (2014) – incredibly, I didn’t even like this one that much the first time I saw it, in theaters, but rewatches have worked 100% for me, on every level, to put it mildly
2. Les Miserables (2012) – the songs, the emotional power, the ending (which I’m sure a lot of/most people hate)
3. Arrival (2016)
4. Inception (2010)
5. Pitch Perfect (2012) – immensely fun, funny and features an astonishing collection of some of my favorite songs of this decade and not only, many of which I heard there for the first time
6. Frozen (2013)
7. Your Name (2016) – released in the U.S. in 2017
8. Toy Story 3 (2010)
9. When Marnie Was There (2014) – released in the U.S. in 2015
10. The Big Sick (2017) – although 10th is definitely the spot I struggled with the most (even something like It, from the same year, is close)
These are the movies this past decade I enjoy/enjoyed the most and/or which most make me think to myself “this is why I love the movies”… What’s really weird is 2010 (which, in addition to Inception and Toy Story 3, also featured True Grit, Scott Pilgrim vs. the World, How to Train Your Dragon, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 – one of my favorites of that series, probably second only to The Prisoner of Azkaban -, highly enjoyable stuff like Kick-Ass and Easy A, plus most people’s standout of that year, the also very rewatchable The Social Network – it might seem like I’m mentioning it out of obligation but I’m really not, I actually like it a great deal, and I even like The King’s Speech well-enough) is pretty much unquestionably my favorite year in this interval – O.K., maybe 2016 comes close (besides the two on the list, Arrival and Your Name, I also completely loved O.J.: Made in America, Lion, Sing Street and, in hindsight, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, another one that’s massively grown on me with rewatches, not to mention things like Toni Erdmann, The Nice Guys, La La Land, Christine – which definitely took me by surprise with how hard it hit me – or The Edge of Seventeen), yet it’s also the one from which I’ve seen BY FAR the fewest movies – probably in the 20-30 range, which is quite low even compared to years prior to 2010. I guess I knew how to pick’em that year… I only started watching 50-100 per year soon after that, although I’m sure I have at least some years from the 90’s, especially, from which I’ve seen close to or over 50 movies, even if I didn’t log them all back then, as I have done since 2011.
I have just watched The Glorias and it’s going to be one of my favorite films of the year. Julie Taymor is truly a visionary director of cinema and I don’t get why she isn’t getting the recognition she long deseves as a filmmaker. The strength of The Glorias for me are her trademark flourishes. She elevates what could be a standard biopic with an expiremental approach that I think no filmmaker today is working the way she does artistically in films. Rodrigo Prieto, Sandy Powell, Elliot Goldenthal, Alicia Vikander and Lorraine Toussaint all deserve to be contenders.
Maria Bakalova is being campaigned at Supporting except at the Globes, right? I feel like a nod is about to happen if she gets in at the Globes. Also, Ellen Burstyn is like first or second so far among Supporting actress contenders. Too bad Candice Bergen isn’t getting much love for Let Them All Talk as we don’t even know if HBO Max will campaign it for the Oscars or Emmys?
Update on The Woman in the Window for all of us who are anticipating it, as per an article from EW is that it will be released on the first half of the year. That means Netflix might sit it out for this season and have it April to June release date which I prefer since Joe Wright looks excited for it and I really do hope it’s worth the 2-year delay.
I think Riz Ahmed is more likely than Tom Hanks to get a nod, and Maria Bakalova is getting enough attention that she likely make the shortlist for supporting on the end. I also think Emerald Fennel and her film are getting a lot of buzz, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Promising Young Woman made the final cut and Fennel at least comes close to it. Finally, I think Eliza Hittman will squeeze out a screenplay nod, and Kirby might be on the way out because of not only the Shia controversy, but also the lacklustre reviews for the film itself.
I agree on Riz Ahmed getting a nom and Maria Bakalova looking pretty strong. But as a foreigner I must ask: do you mean by “squeeze out” that Eliza Hittman won´t get a screenplay nom? I think this category might be the chance for the Academy not only to honor this movie but also giving a statement in this controversial and current topic.
Furthermore, it´s extremely difficult to imagine Kirby missing a nomination with that superb performance. I don´t see how the Shia controversy should damage her, but of course Best Actress is extremely crowded this year.
I think “squeeze out” means something along the lines of “forcefully pushing to the point of getting a nomination” so “it’s going to be hard but she’s going to get nominated”
Ah okay, thanks! I guess that sums up her chances pretty well. Even if that category is pretty tough too.
I am surprised to see that very few comments address the topic Sasha featured here. I have been thinking about the many black voices in this year’s movies, and I am glad to read about it. I am looking forward to seeing One Night in Miami, …Billie Holiday, and Judas… and to see how the Academy responds to each of them. I think that the strength of Ma Rainey is in the acting, not the story. Da 5 Bloods was poor in writing and directing, in my opinion. I am hoping that at least one of the other 3 movies will communicate the black experience in a way that will enrich and engage many movie lovers. All 3 of them, plus Ma Rainey, are on the new list of best picture predictions. This should be interesting to watch.
Malcolm & Marie looks interesting. The talk seems to be about Zendaya but not John David Washington. It looks intense!
Yeah, I want to comment more on the films Sasha specifically mentioned there, but most are still not available for me. The only 2 I’ve watched are Da 5 Bloods (which I really like) and Ma Rainey (which I respect).
From what I’ve seen, some of the Small Axe might be awards juggernaut if it’s available.
I have yet to see a few of the films but so far my favorite performances are
Actress:
Aubrey Plaza- Black Bear
Carrie Coon- The Nest
Elisabeth Moss- Shirley
Eliza Scanlen- Babyteeth
Radha Blank- 40 Year Version
(have not seen Promising Young Woman, Nomadland, US vs Billie Holliday, Penguin Bloom, French Exit, or Malcolm and Marie)
Actor:
Toby ‘Wallace- Babyteeth
Del Rey Lindo- Da 5 Bloods
Chadwick Boesman- Ma Rainey….
Christopher Abbott- Possessor
Cosmos Jarvis- Shadow of Violence(aka: Calm With Horses)
(have not seen The Father, One Night in Miami, Minari, Judas and the Black Messiah, Malcolm and Marie
I am fully expecting it to change as I knock out the rest of the films in the next couple weeks. I, also realize that my picks with the exception of Chadwick will come nowhere near being nominated. The movies that have been steamrolling through the critics awards that I have seen(Sound of Metal, Mank, First Cow, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Ma Rainey’s…) I thought were good to excellent(ManK) but I just can’t get excited about but I am anticipating at couple of the ones left to see will get me excited
MY Top 10 so far
1. On the Rocks
2. Possessor
3. Black Bear
4. Mangrove
5. The Strong Ones
6. Lover’s Rock
7. Da 5 Bloods
8. Summer of 85
9. Mank
10. Babyteeth
Best Docs
1. Boys State
2.Welcome to Chechnya
3. A Secret Love
4. Mystify: Michael Hutchence
5. Beastie Boys Story
6. Circus of Books
7. Disclosure
8. A Social Dilemma
9. The Fight
10. The Go Go’s
2.
wow, I am not the only one that saw “Disclosure”!!! Great, great doc. It feels like a sequel to “The Celulloid Closet” and almost as good as that legendary doc. Eye opening.
…nvm
I wanted to give a shoutout for Samuel L Jackson’s performance in The Banker. I really enjoyed his work here and the trio of Nicholas Hoult with Anthony Mackie was really fine ensemble work. Perhaps the movie was all a bit conventional in its execution but quite illuminating for this non American into inequalities in the business world in the 1960’s. Samuel L Jackson steals the pic.
I would add to the list, Spike Lee’s “David Byrne’s American Utopia”, which I just found out it seems it is not ellegible for Oscars – same as “Hamilton” – for being a filmed play/concert. I find that ridiculous… looking back, we all know that Jonathan Demme’s “Stop Making Sense” could perfectly be a deserving Best Picture nominee on its year… I would add Jonas Akerlund’s “Confessions Tour” for Madonna, which featured amazing cinematography and great editing…
Zendaya is getting amazing reviews. People think she could win. Best actress is getting packed!! Could we have three black actress nominees with her, Davis and Day. Not enough room with McDormand, Mulligan and Kirby.
I think it is still McDormand’s to lose. Like, really. One of the few names that Hollywood would embrace as a 3 time winner, she gives amazing speeches (after the events of the last weeks and days, people would just die to listen to her vindicate on stage), the film is the Best Picture/Director/Adapted Screenplay frontrunner and she will probably be the lone acting nom for it… Kirby, Mulligan, Davis are not far behind, but they are the “alternate” winners. Zendaya, Loren and some more are probably fighting for the 5th spot.
Out of the main contenders, I’ve seen Kirby, Davis, both Streep performances and Loren. I’d give it to Loren without a single doubt.
Best female performance I’ve seen this year, leading or supporting? Difficult to choose between Bakalova, Gómez-Lacueva (Unfortunate Stories) and Loren. Kirby would be 4th and Davis 5th.
Great take! Thinking history will be made with this category this year with Zendaya, Davis and Day. Zendaya is the best of the three (It’s an AMAZING performance!!!) but Day’s performance is more Oscar voter appealing. “The United States vs. Billie Holiday” is a grittier and more gusty “Judy.” And like “Judy” Day’s performance is better than the overall movie. It’s also better than Zellweger and she got the bag last year!
… and again, the list, on purpouse, decides to ignore precursors? I don’t think I need to underline the blatant silence about some contenders… while Spree is still everywhere on the frontpage (Picture, Director, Actor, Screenplay…)… one has to question aloud, if this is objective on the “predix” department or we’re talking about wishful thinkings and also deliberately shun some contenders…
I think Pieces of a Woman deserves consideration for Best Picture but strangely enough it is only hitting actor nods.. maybe Netflix doesn’t prioritise it over other films they have this year? It is an excellent movie.
I haven’t seen it yet but I think that is because the “consensus” (quotation marks because the word is used very loosely) is that the writing isn’t great and that the movie is really flawed but with good performances… I can’t comment on my thoughts of this as I haven’t seen it (I’ll watch it soon as it is out on Netflix) but that and it being perceived as difficult to watch I think are the main reasons why only the actors are being predicted.
I don’t think the the writing is bad by any means, quite the contrary there is some exceptional writing (e.g. the family gathering). Hope you can watch it soon and share your opinion 🙂
I just finished watching it. It has pieces of greatness but also pieces that don’t work for me. And the those parts were certainly better than the picture overall. There is only one word for Vanessa Kirby – Splendid! A Bravura performance. In the dictionary, under ‘Bravura’ is a picture of Vanessa Kirby. Sublime work.
But, Ellen Burstyn was completely miscast in my opinion. At 88, some more than 50 years older than the actress playing her daughter made no sense to me. As brilliant and dynamic as Burstyn is, I did not believe they were mother and daughter. If she was cast intentionally for the age gap – why? For me a Judy Davis or a Susan Sarandon would have made a brittle mother and a more believable piece of casting. And, i did not feel any chemistry between the two leads. Either there was not enough moments at the beginning to show the connection, or again intentionally directed to be somewhat ill-matched – it is unclear to me.
Other than a strange piece of storytelling in the court room scene near the end, i thought the writing was interesting and illuminating at times; if not as affecting as i might have expected. I ascribe the film’s flaws to the Director, not the writer.
The younger sister was well cast, but made the casting of Ellen Burstyn even more at odds with the narrative. When i first saw the trailer weeks ago, I assumed she was the grandmother. So, the casting made it really hard for me to love this movie, but Vanessa Kirby was just awesome. I hope BAFTA get behind her performance and reward it as they did with Imelda Staunton for Vera Drake. A flawless performance.
I must confess that I – for whatever reason – didn´t really notice until your post pointed me to it, that Ellen Burstyn is indeed way too old to play the mother, LOL!
But I guess it must have been quite flattering for her that they offered her this role… 😉
i just assumed she was Martha’s grandmother from the trailer. 🙂 Her monologue to her daughter part way through still doesn’t illuminate the age gap.
That’s an interesting take Dave and a very fair point on the age gap which I understand ruined the suspension of belief for you – it is strange I didn’t notice during the movie, and even though I completely see your point now I think the terrific performances from both actresses saved me from having the same experience you had while watching them.
I also disagree with you on the chemistry between the leads – I actually think Shia laBeouf did a great job too but I can see how the current controversies around him might play against his chances of being recognized. I only hope they don’t affect the movie, which again I thought it was really well written, directed (that first scene) and acted. Yes, some of the symbolism was too obvious (the bridge, the seeds, the apples) but overall I think it is a piece of cinema that should be recognized. Really interesting to hear your point of view though!
thank you Pablo, it is always good to read others views on these films. You and Dominik and Stergios and Sammy so far. I did have very high hopes for the movie and can be very critical too :(. I think Shia did a great job, i just didn’t feel like they were lovers wanting a child together, but given what occurs in the narrative, what followed perhaps is apt. Their acting styles felt too contrasting. And yes there’s some inevitable baggage in watching Shia here. There is no doubt Ellen Burstyn is still a force to be reckoned with at 88, and her big scene is compelling. I expect Oscar nods for both women.
I think I agree with your whole assessment. That opening 30 minutes is REALLY fantastic and the rest of the movie is kind of a letdown. I hadn’t thought about the Burstyn age gap and she worked gangbusters for me. That monologue was heartstopping. Vanessa Kirby may have given the performance of the year. I didn’t think of her as an actor at all. It was so lived in from the jump that I just believed her. It’s a tour de force all the way around. She really inhabited that woman. It’s striking to watch. Even when she’s “not doing anything” I want to watch her. I will probably watch the film again just to watch her performance, even being mixed on the rest of the film. But I think the problem with Shia, for me, stems from Kirby being SO GOOD. I read a comment somewhere that said he exhibits “performative authenticity” and that nailed it for me. And kind of summed up my thoughts about a lot of his performances. When you’re up against someone like Kirby who’s really not PERFORMING it makes it stand out. I think Molly Parker also deserves a shoutout just for the opening sequence. Overall, it’s too shaggy and could have used some judicious editing, but there are some really great performances.
I also watched Kajillionaire. Anyone seen it/have thoughts? I think the main female leads (Evan Rachel Wood, Gina Rodriguez, and Debra Winger) were just magnificent.
Wow, totally missed there being a 55 year gap between the actresses. Burstyn looks amazzzzzing for her age. I suppose one could say she was late 70s-80 or so and, I actually thought Kirby was more in her mid-30s than her actual 32. That brings the age gap to about 43-44 years or so (definitely possible). But yeah, odd, now that you mentioned it!
Yep i did that rationale too – assuming she was written as mid to late 70’s and Kirby’s character as mid 30s = but there is the younger sibling too – so I struggled to accept her; however cogent her performance was.
She moved like an 88 year old but yes she still has an incredible presence on screen after 50 years of roles; but it totally took me out of the naturalism of the movie. I would love to have seen what an actor of Judy Davis’ age – like mid 60’s would have done with the role. But I also think Davis is the most under appreciated film actress. Another Oscar nod and even a win would assuage me.
Judy Davis is amazing and I wish her career was different these days. She was the lone bright spot of “Ratched” with her prickly energy. She was fantastic. I hated the show but loved her. I, somehow, bought Burstyn as their mom (and the younger sister is played by VERY mediocre stand up comedian Iliza Schlesinger, which I thought was an interesting piece of casting since she’s pretty well known in comedy circles-multiple Netflix comedy specials and all) and her intensity and internalization was next to none.
Yes she was brilliant in Rached. Most of Judy’s career has been pretty serious and intense fare. Her supporting performance in The Dressmaker was hilarious and she brought a wonderfully droll and light touch to Ratched.
I thought Ilza looked like Vanessa Kirby so I believed they could be sisters . I assumed she was younger but she is 6 years older than Kirby. Like Sarah Snook she was not given much to work with
Oh, so she was playing the older sister then? Interesting as I just assumed she was younger. I think Sarah Snook and Molly Parker were done dirty by this movie, haha! Snook gives one of the best performances on television in “Succession” but here really had nothing to work with. She did a lovely job and made it more of a character than it was written. I thought Kirby, Burstyn, and Shlesinger were well-cast as family. I never really think about that stuff (as my brothers and I do not look alike and people never realize we are brothers when they see us all together), but I found myself thinking what good casting it was throughout the movie (even with Burstyn being so much older).
I assumed the sister was younger than Martha but I know where assumptions can lead me! She looks younger. Vanessa Kirby is impossible to take my eyes away from. So luminous.
Yes Molly Parker and her character could have been better attended to in the second half. I would have traded some of the family stuff and Shia to better explore and resolve the midwife plot. I thought Molly brought something really interesting to the film.
Valid observation about Burstyn despite the fact that like John I too missed there being such a big age gap between her and Kirby. And I also think you hit the nail with most things you had to say about the film. While not without its flaws, it’s an undeniably powerful work (the birth scene alone is unforgettable) and Kirby delivers a masterclass and then some. I’d love seeing BAFTA rewarding her as well but now having seen Promising Young Woman I think it’s Carey Mulligan that deserves everything, Bafta and Oscar including.
it’s an interesting but EXTREMELY flawed film, and the blame is on the P.O.V. chosen. If you’re going to bet everything on Vanessa Kirby’s character, just do it. But chosing to follow other characters only to do a superficial job on them (LaBeout’s, Burstyn) or even ignore them completely (Parker’s for God Sake!, she has the other most interesting character on the film and we’re mostly clueless about her till the very end). Shia’s just disappear? In the end, it becomes almost a pornographic look on grief, that ultimately feels superficial and barely scratching its full potential. It’s objectively speaking a good film, though… it just cuts its own wings and is afraid to fly.
Totally disagree on this movie being a pornographic look on grief, not once Vanessa Kirby explodes in an overreaction so many times seen in these types of movies. You can feel her immense internalized grief and that’s why her performance is great.
the film kind of rejoices on that. Think twice, is it there, anything BEYOND grief, for the character? is it there, any actual character development? When the court scene arrives, do we even know the actual opinion of her character about the accused and the events? The film never really developes her beyond her one-note status all through the film… Kirby’s performance is outstanding, with what she’s given. As I said, as someone who has dealt – actually still am – with grief after losing my husband (and not only him) back three years ago… there’s more than grief, but the filmmaker frames exclusively in this aspect, rather than building up three-dimensional characters we can really empathize beyond a surface level. My recommendation is to rewatch Kieslowski’s “Blue” to compare…
Sorry to hear about your story and clearly that makes us watch the movie under two different lights. It is probably inevitable for you to project your own experience into the movie and maybe demand certain things the filmmakers were not looking for. I read both director and writer of this movie are a couple who lost a child themselves and therefore we are probably seeing something similar to what they personally went through. Thanks for the recommendation, always good to rewatch Kieslowski, many years have passed since I watched Blue. All the best Jesus.
A bit sad that my 4 favorite films so far this year (On the Rocks, The Vast of Night, Promising Young Woman, The Outpost) probably won’t make it in BP. Nomadland or Mank would be a deserving winner as both are quality films, although I don’t really care whichever wins.
Ben Affleck probably doesn’t need an Oscar, but his performance is undoubtedly one of the best this year. Oldman is my actor pick, but by a close margin. Ahmed, Chadwick, Lindo, Affleck would be a deserving winner as well (haven’t watched Hopkins).
Kirby is my actress pick, but by a close margin as well. Mcdormand or Davis would be a deserving winner too.
Supporting actor I’d pick Murray, but I might be bias as the film itself is my favorite this year. However I haven’t watched Judas, One Night in Miami, and Supernova.
Supporting actress is Glenn Close.
“Vast of Night” is NOT my genre, but I loved it. What a fun movie!
Vanessa Kirby deserves a ton of awards for her haunting work in Pieces Of A Woman. A tour de force of a performance and then some.
Thank you for the prompt. I must watch it tonight!
You definitely should, if anything for the acting. Kirby and Burstyn especially slayyy
see above for my reactions!
Vanessa Kirby and Molly Parker are both great, especially in the opening (and unedited if I´m not mistaken) home birth scene, which is incredible. After the first half an hour the film loses a bit of it´s force and I´m not really happy with the ending sequence, but all in all it´s a very good film and some of the best acting you will find in any film this year!
I’ve been reading this site for more than a decade and I find the kind of stuff Sasha is posting on twitter these days to be quite shocking, and it’s bleeding into her articles here. What’s happened to her? She’s become a Trump fan. She says he’s not racist. How on earth?
I was shocked about that too. I’ve been following this site for six years and Sasha seems completely different than she was some years ago. I’m very disappointed she’s now some sort of a Trump fan.
I am not “some Trump supporter,” but I’ve become horrified with how punitive and insular the left has become. I can’t really stand it, I don’t know how anyone else can. But yes, if you are wanting to follow people who match your own ideology “ordinary guy” there are dozens of places you can find that. I am hoping to broaden the conversation away from the way the left has, of late, become a utopia. And what I believe, frankly, is no one’s business but it is indicative of what the left has become, how it monitors and polices thought.
“Oscarwatch” reader/fan here, been reading the site for about 20 years, and I have to (politely) agree with the others. We get it — you think the “woke left” has gone too far. Your Twitter account was 99% doomsday leading up to the election and yet.. Biden won, we kept control of Congress, we just won 2 Senate seats in Georgia! If you just move off social media, society at large is just not as obsessed about this issue as you are.
As it pertains to the Oscars, I don’t think voters are thinking about all this woke nonsense as much as you think. If people don’t like Hillbilly Elegy, it’s because it’s a bad movie, not because everything aimed at red-state America gets automatically shit on. Obviously it’s your site and you can say whatever you want, but I just hope every post this entire season is not about how the woke left is ruining Hollywood and the only reason we’re talking about these specific contenders is because they check a box.
It’s especially insulting for anyone to insinuate that a generational talent like Chloe Zhao is merely checking boxes. That being said, I think we’d all be happier here sticking to the Oscar race
I did not say Trump wasn’t racist. I said his supporters are not exclusively white supremacists. I don’t expect people to agree with me or to go along with what I think. This would not be the first time in the 20 years I’ve been online that what I write and think is provocative. I do find it interesting that you come here and leave this comment about what I’m saying on Twitter rather than, you know, on Twitter? You are free to stop reading the site. I hope I can find new readers who do not demand strict conformity. I do not agree with how the left has been acting during this election. I find it frightening, to tell the truth. And I do think that it’s wrong to dehumanize whole groups of people as the left has done to Trump supporters. I don’t know what about this piece would lead you to think it has anything to do with supporting Trump?
I think it’s really refreshing to read your take on it Sasha. There’s such a binary set of views mostly, that anyone who doesn’t easily encapsulate either view is silenced or minimised. And yes, i couldn’t see any nexus between this piece and Trump.
But the basic question is: What is worse: racists, or people that go out of their way to oppose racists? Seems like the latter, on this site. And more importantly, it has VERY LITTLE to do with the Oscar race, all things considered.
I don’t know if this is Sasha’s intent or not but here is a contrived scenario to try to explain why I agree with her :
You are living on a small street with only 3 properties – – yourself and 2 others. There is some argument about I dunno the road (it really doesn’t matter) and your two neighbours are fighting, it is getting really ugly and both are behaving really badly. They both need to be called out and made to be reasonable and get along and stop doing shitty things. One of those 2 neighbours is a good friend of yours, maybe they aren’t being as shitty as the other and are a good person who can be worked up to the point of being shitty. The other person you don’t get along with very well and disagree with on the issue at hand.You aren’t exactly friends and don’t want to be but you are civil and can co-operate with them if need be. However, what your isolated street needs is to be peaceful and get along. The issue is going to have to be resolved somehow, what do you do?
Some may say take your friend’s side and attempt to gang up on the neighbour and make them change their mind. You agree with your friend on the issue after all. I think the more logical thing to do would be to try to make your friend be logical first, call them out for being shitty and try to get them to extend an olive branch to the neighbour. From there you and your friend may still disagree with the other on the issue at hand but at least you can debate it in a civil way.
has nothing to do with the Oscar race methinks.
That is certainly NOT the question. We should ALL be “people that go out of their way to oppose racists” – and I am going out of my way to oppose YOU, “Amender”
Of course they are not. But I do find it very alarming to read that about 45% of his voters (according to a YouGov poll) support the attacks on the Capitol – that were led by Neonazi groups that made no secrets about their mindset (just look at their flags, their symbols, their “Camp Auschwitz” sweaters, the green frog masks). I find it disturbing to see that a person who is not only a pathological liar and an ideological fire raiser but a flat out fascist is still in office – after all that he did, after all his actions and lies that led to the events on the Capitol. He has to be accused and should not be allowed to amnesty himself! Every Trump voter (and especially his vasalls in the Republican party) must decide now whether they support the US constitution and democracy or stand shoulder-to-shoulder with those criminals that are planning a coup d´etat.
Also, this is indicative of the cancel culture ideology: we will track you down, call you out and try to ruin you. It’s not something I welcome on this site. If you have a problem with me personally you can write me personally or find another site.
Trump is not a fringe politician as he got more votes than any other politician in US History except senile Joe Biden .America has outgrown it’s earlier atrocious racist history and is over it, bar a few anachronistic exceptions ; only children squeal accusations of racism at people they disagree with ; adults know better
The moderate Democratic Party has been undermined by Leftists using the BLM Mobs and Covid panic as a pretext for complete control ;ergo, it’s not even slightly surprising that almost half the country feel disenfranchised and seeing that the DNC are in no mood for sensible compromise it does seem like things are going to get far worse before they get better …as such, it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest to see assassinations and mass shootings breaking out as part of the zeitgeist !
Indeed, there are tides in the flow of history as there are seasons in the story of life and you can just sense the gloom and inevitability of it all ..Après moi, le déluge !
So far, I hate to say, I find it a lackluster slate (understandable this year). I do love Nomadland and would be happy if it won in a normal year. But, otherwise, of the ones I’ve seen – which is only half – not much else on my list so far I’d consider really good. Hope to see Promising Young Woman, One Night in Miami and News of the World this week or so. And I suppose I should watch The Outpost.
It’s been a rough year, to be sure.
Wow. Sasha must have VERY little regard for Sound of Metal. How many critics groups have awarded Paul Raci supporting actor and he doesn’t even break into the “strong contenders” here? Absurd. And I think Riz Ahmed is solidly in the 5 for Best actor. Certainly over Gary Oldman. In fact, I think the only acting nom for Mank will be Seyfried. I really don’t think Mank is going to be a big contender, in general.
I don’t think Raci does anything special in Sound of Metal to be nominated, just as Seyfried. But both will be nominated. Very few doubt about that.
I found Raci to be so natural, forceful, and compelling. I didn’t think Seyfried was anything special in Mank but I liked her in it more than anyone else in the film.
Seyfried is fine. I would be fine with her winning if that was a make-up Oscar (Zelwegger’s first, Tim Robbins, etc.) or a career win (Oldman, Dern, etc.), since there is nothing special about the performance. I even think Bakalova deserves it more than her.
Still have to see Colman and Yuh-Jung Youn. Right now, Close should win by a landslide. Even when I abstract her whole career from the equation, that is a more demanding and accomplished performance than Burstyn, Seyfried, Bakalova and Cooke.
I just watched Hillbilly elegy tonight and, while I thought the movie as a whole was a mess, I can’t deny that Close was pretty damn entertaining in it! I hope she’s nominated, but I don’t think it’s going to happen. Bakalova would be my pick, so far. She was so great.
The movie has problems, specially when it comes to the way Close and, specially, Adams’ characters are constructed. Problem is that the flaws of this movie are being WAY overstated while the flaws in some major contenders, especially Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, are not. If that is nominated for Best Directing over Spike Lee, seriously…
That’s an oversight. No, I thought it was good. And he was good. I was not as blown away by it as others were but I should probably add him in.
You saw US vs Billie Holiday? Any predictions on how the reviews will be like? Some awards predictors are hinting on twitter that the film is really bad.
What have you heard?
If this indeed is the BP lineup, I can only show condolences for you, Americans, for once again failling to properly recognize your most accomplished auteurs.
Da 5 Bloods is criminally underrated. It’s a better film than Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, which captured part of its buzz. And it’s not even close.
Same for Soul. The fact that people are putting Wolfwalkers in the level of that is beyond me. A one of a kind masterpiece versus a great well-crafted tale that we get every year in worldwide animation. Amazingly it’s when Pixar has its first Black-centric film that the campaign to dethrone it is stronger than ever and is hunting the film’s BP buzz.
Lee and Docter deserved far better…
Spike is winning the Emmy for American Utopia, jaw dropping work on that
The United States vs. Billie Holiday was just removed from the schedule. Will Hulu release it next month?
After having seen “Pieces of a woman”, Molly Parker should definitely be in conversation for supporting actress (over Ellen Burstyn).
In what world On the Rocks is above Soul in Best Picture lmao ??
Huh. Someone has seen Judas and the Black Messiah. But you have it missing script but hitting Picture/Director and two acting nods?
On the downlow but …I can validate that suspicion.
Interesting you still have Glenn Close at the top. I don’t think the Globes will award her again so soon after The Wife but is this to be the performance to win the Academy Award. I still think Amanda Seyfried is the likeky recipient.
After watching Pieces of Woman and Mank… nothing special about legendary Burstyn and Seyfried. Burstyn has one very strong scene. That’s it. Close absolutely better than both but people hated that film even before watching it. I’m caring less and less about critics reception after seeing the terrible Wonder Woman 1984 score a 60 in RT and Metacritic.
I wanted to like Hillbilly Elegy, big fan of both Close and Adams, and have enjoyed Gabriel Basso’s work too, but found Close especially over the top and self conscious. Scenery chewing of the highest order. I know that has won many Oscars that style of acting, but also been passed over as well. I just want this great actress to be rewarded for a great performance and it wasn’t that for me.
There is at least one way over the top performance that is going to win in a film that lacked a better directing but that critics would never write objectively about for a myriad of reasons.
Care to expand on that? i’m not sure which films or performances you are referencing.
I hate to say that. I’m fine with a win because it’s a win for career and his legacy but I think I won’t find 5 worst Lead Actor winning performances than Boseman in Ma Rainey since I started following awards season in 1998. There is absolutely no parameter in comparison between that performance and what Delroy Lindo does in Da 5 Bloods. The difference? One film has great directing. The other quite doesn’t.
I would find a lot better to have Boseman nominated and winning Supporting for Bloods and Lindo winning lead for the film, which I’m confident would be the BP frontrunner if the release dates were just switched between this and Ma Rainey’s.
I think both Lindo and Boseman give terrific performances; the former i was really surprised just how powerful he was on screen; the latter really impressed with his energy and spirit and physicality (made even more poignant by his ailing health at that time). I guess I would separate the direction of the two movies from the performances. I found Spike Lee’s a bit all over the place – a messy feature from him; and Wolfe’s direction was fine – but naturally more contained and even a little claustrophobic given the ‘rooms’ the story is set and staged in. I didn’t really go for Viola Davis here.
and still think Boseman’s role is too small, albeit integral for the category. But smaller roles and screen times have prevailed before, but i can’t see him scoring both nods. I might be wrong.
Agree with you. It is small but it’s integral to the film, like Alan Arkin in Little Miss Sunshine, for example. Supporting Actor is the most crowded category of the year. Even more than Lead Actress. Also can’t see him scoring both. Da 5 Bloods will help him winning Lead.
yep, absolutely.