What a strange year this has been. According the AFI website (thank you to Will Mavity) the AFI will be announcing their top ten tomorrow. In an ordinary year they would be coming in early – and I guess it’s still early for the Oscar race.
They don’t always match up with the Oscars. Once there are a solid ten Best Picture nominees (starting next year) they will likely be closer to ultimate lineup.
Here is my best guess:
Nomadland
Minari
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
One Night in Miami
Mank
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Promising Young Woman
Soul
The Sound of Metal
News of the World
But it could easily be one of these:
Judas and the Black Messiah
First Cow
Da 5 Bloods
Never, Rarely, Sometimes, Always
The Father
AD Team Predictions
Clarence Moye:
The Father
First Cow
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Minari
Nomadland
One Night In Miami
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Mark Johnson:
Da 5 Bloods
The Father
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Minari
Nomadland
One Night In Miami
Promising Young Woman
Soul
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Ryan Adams:
Da 5 Bloods
First Cow
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Nomadland
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Minari
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
Marshall Flores:
Da 5 Bloods
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
Soul
Trial of the Chicago Seven
Here is the history:
The history:
2019
1917
The Farewell
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Knives Out
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Richard Jewell
Special award: Parasite
8/9
Not named: Ford v. Ferrari
2018
BlackKklansman
Black Panther
Eighth Grade
If Beale Street Could Talk
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Mary Poppins Returns
A Quiet Place
A Star is Born
Special Award: Roma
6/8
Not named: Bohemian Rhapsody, Vice
2017
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Big Sick
The Florida Project
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Wonder Woman
Not named: Phantom Thread (late breaker), Darkest Hour (if you follow Film Twitter you will know why).
2016
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Silence
Sully
Zootopia
Not named: Hidden Figures (late breaker), Lion (Weinstein could work miracles back then)
2015
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Carol
Inside Out
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Room
Spotlight
The Force Awakens
Straight Outta Compton
Not named: Brooklyn
2014
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Nightcrawler
Selma
Unbroken
Whiplash
Not named: The Theory of Everything, The Grand Budapest Hotel
2013
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Fruitvale Station
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
The Wolf of Wall Street
Not named: Dallas Buyers Club, Philomena
2012
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Dark Knight Rises
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Not named (not eligible): Amour
2011
Bridesmaids
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
J. Edgar
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
*The Artist – special citation
Not named: Extremely Loud, Incredibly Close
2010
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The Social Network
The Town
The Kids Are All Right
True Grit
Winter’s Bone
*The King’s Speech – special citation
Not named: Toy Story 3
2009
A Serious Man
A Single Man
Coraline
The Hangover
The Hurt Locker
The Messenger
Precious
Sugar
Up
Up in the Air
