Movie City News is back in business baby, ready to cut through the season like a hot knife. We’ve all rung in prior to the awards dump of the last days so it kind of reflects where we were before that. I expect if surveyed just today we might change some of them up a bit. Either way, you can check the whole thing out at the site. But here is Best Picture:
Participants
Thelma Adams: Author, Top Critic on Rotten Tomatoes, Oscar Expert Twitter
Robyn Bahr: Freelance (Washington Post, GQ, Hollywood Reporter, Vanity Fair, Guardian) Twitter
Gregory Ellwood: The Playlist Twitter
Peter Howell: Toronto Star Twitter
Mark Johnson: Awards Daily Twitter
Dave Karger: TCM, IMDb Twitter
Wilson Morales: BlackFilmAndTV.com Twitter
Michael Patterson: Michael’s Telluride Film Blog; Twitter
David Poland: Movie City News Twitter
Steve Pond: The Wrap, Twitter
NathanielR: The Film Experience Twitter
Jeff Sneider: Collider Twitter
Serious question: what do people like about News of the World that they feel it should be nominated, for anything?
True Grit for hypertensive is the film in the top 13 I would hate to see nominated for Best Picture. It’s a good film. Very few flaws, but… there is not a single aspect about it I would say is extraordinary. I wish Tom Hanks and Paul Greengrass would have sent that time and money in a more interesting project, as Captain Phillips was.
I’ve been wondering about that myself… (Since seeing it.)
I haven’t seen it but the reviews are actually pretty good — more or less in line with 1917 last year — so obviously people like something about it…
I HAVE seen it, it’s “meh”.
I do think Judas and the Black Massiah is the late breaker that can come in and totally disrupt the race as we knew it. Early reactions are very passionate. I just got the screener so we shall see soon!
I’m thinking it could kick News of the World out of the running. Which is shocking because you’d think it would be safe being an epic feel good movie. But if it makes it into BP, it might only have one or two other nominations…maybe cinematography? maybe editing? maybe sound? Maybe production design? It’s doesnt seem to be a lock anywhere. And it certainly wont get acting or directing nominations.
The number one pick on the first Gurus of the Gold of the season never, ever wins Best Picture. Nomadland is out.
You are correct.
So just a thought I’ve been having about Nomadland… I have it winning picture right now (I’m not confident, I feel like Trial or Ma Rainey easily could too, along with a couple of others) but the only other win I can find it is director… I can’t help but feel like cinematography is Mank regardless of what critics did and I can’t see it winning screenplay since it is such a Roma/ Boyhood type contender – it feels so authentic that it doesn’t feel “written” even though it is. I really don’t see anything beating trial for editing and if something does I doubt it will be nomadland. I would say McDormand is third in actress…
I might end up changing my mind in cinematography but that is the only other possibility I can find and if I don’t can it really win director and picture and nothing else? Picture and screenplay happens but even leaving aside picture, I went back to 1980 and couldn’t find a single film that won director without either screenplay, an acting award or a tech and this kinda makes sense – the director is responsible for so much of the film that if no individual element is best of the year why award the director (I like to put stats in perspective so that I know it is actually logical and not some sort of fluke).
Though the alternative following these stats through is that it wins nothing? Possible but I really can’t see that happening either. Maybe I should think more about predicting it for cinematography or maybe screenplay (but that just doesn’t fit the mould at all to me).
Do you know why you’re having trouble feeling confident about Nomadland winning best picture? BECAUSE IT’S NOT GOING TO. This is classic Boyhood/Roma misdirection perpetrated by the critical bubble.
Out of interest then, do you have Zhao winning director (that is the Roma example)
I have no faith that Hollywood will give Zhao anything. If they’re going to play the gender card, Regina King deserves the award tenfold more than Zhao. Having Frances McDormand walk around and have conversations with non-pros isn’t directing. It’s recording with a camera.
For the record, the previous film to have just won picture and director was You Can’t Take It with You in 1938 and the previous movie to just win director was The Graduate in 1967
Thanks, by the way because you are always good at finding these things – do you know about films that have won screenplay and director without winning picture. I couldn’t find any in recent times but was wondering if there are examples further back?
Brokeback Mountain
The Pianist
Traffic
A Place in the Sun
A Letter to Three Wives
The Treasure of the Sierra Madre
The Informer
Bad Girl
7th Heaven
These usually lost either to other screenplay winners (Crash, An American in Paris) or films that were missing something notable: The Pianist and Traffic didn’t have PGA nominations and A Letter to Three Wives and The Treasure of the Sierra Madre had no tech nominations and overall just three and four nominations, respectively.
Wow, so it can be done (winning only director) – interesting…
But, I mean, the last time it happened was 1967 so it certainly can’t be done easily…
Of course. 🙂 For some reason I was just assuming it had never actually happened (past the 1920’s/30’s or whatever).
Who is beating it for Adapted Screenplay, then?
1. The last stage play to win this, as far as I remember, was Driving Miss Daisy, more than 3 decades ago. And even Driving Miss Daisy, regardless of what one may think of the film, looks a lot less of a stage play when compared to Ma Rainey’s and One Night in Miami. There is a HUGE bias against stage play adaptations here.
2. First Cow? I think only 3 non-BP nominees won this category in history. All the 3 would absolutely have made it to BP in an expanded lineup. First Cow is not a BP nominee with 5, 6… 10 slots.
3. The Father? I am fairly confident this is not a top 5 BP contender. Outside of the 3, you will have a very hard time to argument that we had winners in this category that were not top 5 contenders with the exception of Call me By Your Name… that didn’t compete with a single BP nominee. An year in which ALL the other 8 BP nominees had original screenplays.
4. True Grit for hypertensive? The chance that film wins screenplay is 0.
There has actually been one play adaptation since Driving Miss Daisy that has won adapted screenplay, it’s Moonlight. But of course your argument about “staginess” still applies
An unpublished play… a completely different game. That’s why I don’t consider it here. The film even competed as original screenplay in most awards.
How is it a completely differnt game. I don’t think that people don’t want to vote for Ma Rainey or One Night in Miami… in adapted screenplay because they have seen the plays and think they’re better or watch the movies with the play in hand to see what was changed. And thus if their first contact with the work is the movie, why does it matter if the work was published or not
Are you really comparing a Pulitzer winning play like Driving Miss Daisy or a play by August Wilson with an unpublished play that the Academy and the WGA couldn’t even agree on the proper placement being Adapted or Original – I think it’s one of the most controversial screenplay placements of all time.
Moonlight doesn’t have the elements of a stage play – long scenes, indoor setting, over the tone performances… anyone that watches One Night in Miami and Ma Rainey would sense that this looks like a play… even if the person was not aware that it was an adaptation. And there is a bias against this sort of adaptation.
Like I noted in my earlier comment, your argument about “play-like” films based on plays still applies no matter whether we include Moonlight or not as that bias clearly didn’t affect Moonlight so it doesn’t really matter. I was merely wondering since I never understood why for example the Oscars used to specify adaptations as adaptations of published work and you seemed to have a strong opinion about it so I thought I’d ask
But I think there’s at least some kind of On Golden Pond-type (that’s probably the previous film based on a play to win adapted screenplay that feels a lot like a play at least based on what I recall of it) argument at least for Ma Rainey where the Academy is so swept up in awarding these performances that they award the screenplay as well (although of course there was less competition in that category in 1981). And unless the film for example misses directing and editing, that would imply a best picture win for that movie (and then certain questions about for example the DGA come immediately to my mind which makes me question whether that movie winning makes that much sense and thus whether the screenplay win makes much sense)
I believe that the American film revolution that happened in the 70s brought the two elements that characterize Hollywood since then: the blockbuster high-concept films and the independent auteur-driven film. In the 80s/90s, you still had historic epics until home entertainment, HBO, etc. changed the way adults consume content. Nowadays, adult-oriented content is mostly on TV and, when on film, the content that the industry praises the most is the auteur-driven. Auteur driven films are generally not play adaptations. That’s the origin of the bias against this kind of film when it comes to awarding what the industry perceives as the most accomplished writing.
Are you actually proposing who is beating Nomadland for adapted screenplay??? Surely you can’t be serious, and I am calling you Shirley.
I’m not saying it should win. It’s actually one of the very few contenders I have not seen yet.
I’m saying that stage play adaptations don’t usually win here and non-top 5 BP contenders have prevailed in this category just 3 times.
And that films that take Best Directing (which this will win):
– Almost never win only directing
– Almost never win just directing and one non-major
– Almost always either win multiple tech awards, a major one or both.
Is it that hard to understand?
First, see the film. You will quickly realize that the “script” is indeed the weakest part of the film and immediately DQ’s it from any serious consideration. And what in the world makes you think Zhao is winning? A bunch of critics? Go count the awards Linklater won for Boyhood from critics groups, or Bigelow for ZDT.
Well, I think the script is the weakest part of both Ma Rainey and One Night in Miami because they are structured as filmed stage plays. Regina King, in special, does a terrific job to elevate the material and I even think the performances there impressed me more than in Ma Rainey (I would nominate Kingsley Ben-Adir for Best Actor… he is the true MVP in the film).
You know who else won o a bunch of critics awards? Alfonso Cuaron for Roma, Bong Joon-ho, Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker, Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain, the Coen bros for No Country for Old Men, Michel Hazanavicius… you have a lot of examples either way.
I guess you have a point, Adapted Screenplay is really weak this year… I have Ma Rainey currently… I hadn’t thought about how plays rarely win, though has there been a year since Driving Miss Daisey with so many great play adaptations as this year? So if ever there was a year for a play to win again it would be this year!
We had Doubt and Frost Nixon in the same year. I’d say Frost/Nixon is a better film than Doubt, Ma Rainey and One Night in Miami. I was more engaged by One Night in Miami plot but cinematically speaking, the translation play to film is way better in Frost/Nixon. I also don’t see Ma Rainey or One Night scoring nominations in Film, Directing, Writing, Lead and Editing – F/N did.
It didn’t win Adapted Screenplay… BP winner was in that territory and that film, one of my all time faves, didn’t look like a “regular” Screenplay winner.
Yeah, screenplay was the one I thought it was most likely it would win. But I also think your theory about how it probably won’t feel written-enough has a lot of merit.
Nomadland is absolutely winning Cinematography. Whether it survives the gauntlet of awards season to win best picture or not, it has cinematography and director sewn up.
When the only votes that matter are counted, I.e. the Academy, the winner for cinematography will be News Of The World or Mank. Don’t buy into the critic’s yearly circle jerk.
I’m not buying into anything. I’ve seen the three movies (or well most of Mank. It bores me too much to finish despite multiple tries). And Nomadland is simply the most stunning camera work by a large margin to me. I’m just one person but that sentiment is reflected in many many places covering the race.
I’m with you… Maybe it just wins nothing.
Funny, these choices already seem dated.
Put some respect on Da Five Bloods.
SOUND OF METAL is gonna rise…
In addition to his three key wins, Riz Ahmed being honored at Palm Springs fest — just announced.
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/amp/race/palm-springs-film-fest-riz-ahmed-tapped-for-male-actor-award-exclusive
Agreed. Everyone is grossly underestimating it. I think It has a strong change at landing Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing, and Sound nominations.
Well this bracket is jacked up
Judas and the Black Messiah is too low
You don’t know it yet , but that movie is coming to shake the race
I love David Poland for putting my favorite movie of the year, Promising Young Woman, #1. I would say it’s Nomadland’s to lose with Ma Rainey and Trial as contenders.
Nomad can easily hit a BP path with Zhao winning two to three individual statues herself along with cinematography
Evidence of a hilarious season: the #2 film has rankings of 1,1,2,2,2,5,6,8,8,8,10.