Since we don’t have any other intel at the moment besides critics, viewers of Netflix, and Film Twitter we simply can’t gauge how the movies are actually playing with audiences. Right now, the going consensus appears to be The Trial of the Chicago 7 for Picture (a first for Netflix) and Chloe Zhao for Best Director (a first for Asian women).
Predicting splits are always tricky and almost always impossible, unless they’re decided upon early. Like if this is how it plays out at the Globes, which it might. And if Zhao wins the DGA, Chicago 7 wins SAG and then it comes down to the PGA. If Nomadland wins there, then it’s a toss up as to which wins at Oscar. Shape of Water won PGA + DGA and was not nominated for the SAG. Chicago 7, without anything but the SAG, Nomadland would have to follow in the footsteps of Parasite or Crash. Not impossible. Green Book, it’s worth noting, won Best Picture while Alfonso Cuaron (decided early) kept winning Best Director. So the question is – is Chloe Zhao’s trajectory more like Alfonso Cuaron’s or Kathryn Bigelow’s? If the former, Nomadland will not win Best Picture. If the latter, it will take PGA+DGA and Best Picture + Best Director.
But we should not underestimate what it feels like to be stuck inside the feedback loop of Film Twitter, and how that can mess with perceptions of reality. It’s hard to say how many in the industry pay attention to it at all. Media might springboard off of it but everyone could end up surprised by the end.
Let’s take Green Book as an example. The reason that movie did so well in the Oscar race was despite Film Twitter, despite the critics, despite the dominance of the hive mind. It was absolutely touch and go but by the time Film Twitter had dug up one of the screenwriter’s pro-Trump, pro-Muslim ban tweets, it made headlines. It went so much further than that – the screenwriter whose family was part of the reason why the film got made in the first place, was disallowed to show up to accept the awards the film had coming to them. In a panel discussion, Viggo Mortensen spoke the “n” word in an linguistic context — but all many people heard was that he was saying a disgusting word out lout, and that sent another shockwave through the mass hysteria inclined Film Twitter. It went even farther than that – they dug up stories of Peter Farrelly on the set of movies whipping out his Kingpin as an ill-considered joke.
Green Book was clumsily smeared as a racist, which meant people who liked the movie (the majority) were smeared as racists by default. Because I defended my site, a commenter here the other day sneered, “This site hasn’t been the same as Green Book.” Man, I’d do it all over again because I know a mass hysteria witch hunt when I see one. They needed to find ways to talk people out of liking the film, just as they did when The Help topped Netflix during the protests. The reality did not match the narrative.
The bottom line here is that Green Book succeeded despite that. Why? Because the majority of Academy voters are not plugged into film twitter. They simply saw the movie, enjoyed it greatly.
I met an Oscar voter from the animation branch the year after Green Book won and she said she felt shame for her vote and wished she’d voted for Roma. I’m sure she had no crisis of conscience when voting for Parasite the following year. It a good reminder of the disconnect – except for this year. There is no other offered up reality. There is only one: the feedback loop.
Why this matters — the culture of the educated left — aka critics + Oscar voters is very much wrapped up in being thought of as good people. They are very easy to manipulate, and always have been, if you appeal to this — which film makes them FEEL GOOD when they vote for it and why. Remember when I used to talk about the warming the cockles of the heart way back when vis a vis The King’s Speech vs. Social Network? It is still that way. The only difference is that in the post Trump climate, that is also wrapped up in defending one’s political world view with their vote.
Stories last year about Greta Gerwig’s Best Director snub went all the way to The Washington Post and New York Times, remember that? The ongoing “Oscars so white” activism on Twitter when the acting nominees last year were all white was a problem. Had Parasite not won, the Oscar winners in the top categories would all be white: Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Picture, Writer, Director. Can you imagine what the headlines would have been? As it was, they dodged a bullet with Parasite and ended the night as heroes, making history with the first South Korean Film and the first foreign language film ever to win Best Picture.
That brings us to the new competing frontrunners. Film Twitter appears to be very excited about The Trial of the Chicago 7 becoming the new frontrunner. I would imagine that the theory is that Chloe Zhao will win Best Director for Nomadland and something else will win Best Picture, and given its prominence at Globes and SAG, that movie is now assumed by many to be Chicago 7.
Chicago 7 appears to be popular and people who cast their vote and support around a film with a cast of color, like One Night in Miami or Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom or Judas and the Black Messiah or Da 5 Bloods will have their votes split up among several impressive options. That helps Chicago 7 for sure, especially if the actors branch puts their weight behind it.
But I keep coming back to the potential shitstorms and this of all years there being a need to reward a film that speaks to the moment. Chicago 7 definitely does in that it is about a similar time in American history when the people rose up to challenge the government. Their challenge was protesting the Vietnam war and they were wiling to use any means necessary to achieve that, even if it came to violence. The left of late seems to be torn about whether violence is acceptable or not, whether extremes in protest are acceptable or not. By the end of the era of the Chicago 7, the protests against the brutal war did eventually help end it, but, as the movie points out, it put Democrats in a vulnerable position, power-wise, going forward. They would not regain presidential power until 1992, after a brief stop with Jimmy Carter.
The key for Chicago 7, or any movie in 2020, to win is to figure out what it is about the movie that makes people feel good about voting for it. What gives them that “urgency to vote” that is required. Did they “just love it so much” or does their vote feel “important”. Do they feel like they’re doing “good” with their vote and thus, it makes them look good? This is usually what is the driver of a consensus vote.
As of now, I still feel like Nomadland has it because it is a movie that makes people FEEL something while watching it – sad, but also hopeful. It is a movie you can’t hate. And it’s a movie that was written, directed and edited by a Chinese woman. So – how do you not vote for that?
But we’ll have to see how it plays out in terms of where the momentum goes. My only hesitancy with Chicago 7 is that I don’t know what they’d be voting FOR. What is the urgency to vote for the movie? Does Aaron Sorkin become a hero for a season? Are they going to vote for him because he directed a movie that is doing well? Ten years ago that is how it would likely go. He’d be the toast of the town. But he’s a white male in a time when they are being asked to step aside so that previously marginalized groups to be recognized. True of the Biden administration, true of the new inclusivity standards at BAFTA and at the Oscars, true across the board everywhere in the aftermath of the protests last year. Will any of that matter? So I will be watching to see how all of this unfolds.
Clearly, the BAFTA voters really loved it, with 15 overall mentions on the long list. Here is how the other films played with BAFTA:
Trial of the Chicago 7 – 15 (including Pic+Dir+Scr+acting)
Mank – 14 (including Pic+Dir+Scr+acting)
Promising Young Woman – 13 (including ic+Dir+Scr+acting)
News of the World – 12 (including Pic+Dir+Scr+acting)
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – 11 (including Pic+Scr+acting)
The Mauritanian – 11 (Pic+Dir+Scr+acting)
Da 5 Bloods – 9 (Pic+Scr+acting)
Nomadland – 8 (including Pic+Dir+Scr+acting)
Minari – 8 (including Dir+Scr+acting)
The Father – 8 (including Pic+Dir+Scr+acting)
Sound of Metal – 7 (Pic+Scr+acting)
Judas and the Black Messiah – 7 (Scr+acting)
The White Tiger – 7 (including Pic+Dir+Scr+acting)
One Night in Miami – 6 (including Pic+Dir+Scr+acting)
Soul – 6 (including Pic+Scr)
Here are my current predictions, for what it’s worth:
Best Picture
Frontrunners
Nomadland — AFI/NBR/Globes Pic+Dir+Scr/SAG acting
The Trial of the Chicago 7 — AFI/Globes Pic+Dir+Scr/SAG acting + ensemble
Minari – AFI/NBR/SAG acting + ensemble
Mank – AFI/Globes Pic+Dir+Scr/SAG acting
Promising Young Woman – NBR/Globes Pic+Dir+Scr/SAG acting
The Father – Globes Pic/SAG acting
One Night in Miami – AFI/Globes Dir
News of the World NBR/SAG acting
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – SAG acting+ensemble
Sound of Metal – AFI/NBR
Judas and the Black Messiah AFI/NBR/SAG acting
Soul Picture, Animated Feature, Screenplay, Score – PGA
Longer shots: Any of these films could be boosted by either Globes or BAFTA
Da 5 Bloods (SAG acting + ensemble)
The Mauritanian (Globes acting)
Best Director
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (Globes)
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Globes)
Regina King, One Night in Miami (Globes)
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
David Fincher, Mank (Globes)
Next tier
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (Globes)
Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
Paul Greengrass, News of the World
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
Lee Daniels, United States vs. Billie Holiday
Florian Zeller, The Father
George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Actor
Frontrunners
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Globes/SAG)
Anthony Hopkins, The Father (Globes/SAG)
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (Globes/SAG)
Gary Oldman, Mank (Globes/SAG)
Steven Yeun, Minari (SAG)
Strong contenders
Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian (Globes)
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Tom Hanks, News of the World
Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round
John David Washington, Malcolm & Marie
Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami
Ben Affleck, The Way Back
Colin Firth, Supernova
Best Actress
Frontrunners
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Globes/SAG)
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (Globes/SAG)
Andra Day, United States vs. Billie Holiday (Globes)
Frances McDormand, Nomadland (Globes/SAG)
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (Globes/SAG)
Strong contenders:
Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (Globes)
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (Globes)
Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie
Robin Wright, Land
Best Supporting Actor
Frontrunners
Sacha Baron Cohen, Trial of the Chicago 7 (Globes/SAG)
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (Globes/SAG)
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (Globes/SAG)
Bill Murray, On the Rocks (Globes)
Jared Leto, The Little Things (Globes/SAG)
Strong contenders
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Frank Langella, Trial of the Chicago 7
Mark Rylance, Trial of the Chicago 7
Arliss Howard, Mank
Stanley Tucci, Supernova
Damian Bichir, Land
Bo Burnham, Promising Young Woman
David Strathairn, Nomadland
Charles Dance, Mank
Best Supporting Actress
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (Globes/SAG)
Helena Zengel, News of the World (Globes/SAG)
Olivia Colman, The Father (Globes/SAG)
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (Globes/SAG)
Amanda Seyfried, Mank (Globes)
Strong Contenders
Maria Bakolova (SAG)
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (Globes)
Dominique Fishbeck, Judas and the Black Messiah
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of Woman
Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
Original Screenplay
Trial of the Chicago 7, Aaron Sorkin (Globes)
Promising Young Woman, Emerald Fennell (Globes)
Mank, Jack Fincher (Globes)
Soul, Pete Docter, Mike Jones, Kemp Powers
Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Eliza Hittman
Next tier
On the Rocks, Sofia Coppola
Ammonite, Francis Lee
Adapted Screenplay
Nomadland, Chloe Zhao (Globes)
The Father, Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller(Globes)
News of the World, Paul Greengrass, Luke Davies
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Ruben Santiago-Hudson
One Night in Miami, Kemp Powers
Cinematography
Mank
Nomadland
News of the World
Judas and the Black Messiah
Trial of the Chicago 7
Editing
Nomadland
Trial of the Chicago 7
Mank
Promising Young Woman
Judas and the Black Messiah
Production Design
Mank
Mulan
Emma
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Promising Young Woman
Sound
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
The Outpost
The Prom
Costumes
Mank
David Copperfield
Emma
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mulan
Score
Nomadland
News of the World
Soul
Mank
Trial of the Chicago 7
Next tier:
Tenet
The Midnight Sky
Hair/Makeup
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Emma
Animated Feature
Soul
Wolfwalkers
Earwig and the Witch
Onward
The Croods
Full list of eligible animated films here
Documentary Feature
Crip Camp
All in The Fight for Democracy
The Dissident
City Hall
Collective
Strong contenders
The Social Dilemma
Time
Dick Johnson is Dead
Gunda
MLK/FBI
Here are the eligible films for Doc Feature
Foreign Language
Collective (Romania)
Another Round (Denmark)
Once Upon a Time in Venezuela (Venezuela)
(TBD)
(TBD)
I have surprisingly watched all of the films that contain one of the front-runners or contenders for Best Actress and would have to say COVID has made this an interesting race. It makes me concerned the winner will likely be what the academy decides is the heat of the moment politically and socially naming Viola Davis or Carey Mulligan as Best Actress. Both women gave good performances yet find myself wanting someone else other than them to take home the price, specifically Amy Adams for Hillbilly Elligy (who seemingly is being overlooked), Frances Mcdormand for Nomandland (giving a well deserved third win) or Zandya ( the dark house that wish was more of a contender). To me the three aforementioned women are more deserving to win over the two likely winners and that ten years from now credits will complain that anyone else was more deserving and won because of the current political and social environment.
it’s nomadland and chloe all the way. there isn’t a race.
I’m really worried for Amanda Seyfried after that SAG snub.
Looks like the SAG 5 for Supporting Actress might be the actual line-up for the Oscars. It’s tragic that she went from Oscar frontrunner to posssibly 6th place in the race. Not to mention, Ellen Burstyn has the legend status and Jodie Foster can pull a Kathy Bates.
I think Da 5 bloods will win best ensemble at the sag awards.
A stat that may not mean anything : Titanic is still the last BP with only female acting noms.
Since Titanic, 3 films won BP with zero acting noms (ROTK, Slumdog, Parasite). But none with only female actors acknowledged.
Right now, I can’t see Strathairn nominated for Nomadland. It means McDormand will be the sole comedian nominated for the film, and may break the stat.
I checked how that stat applied before Titanic and here are the films that only recieved female acting nominations that won the best picture Oscar:
Titanic
The Sound of Music
You Can’t Take It with You
The Great Ziegfeld
Cavalcade
The Broadway Melody
Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans
Also as a random note, the two newest films to have done this happen to also be the two newest best picture winners without Oscar nominations in screenplay. I wonder what that’s about, especially since there’s also a stat that the previous movie with a female lead character to win screenplay was Precious eleven years ago?
I couldn’t believe that last stat about female-led movies not winning screenplay over the last decade, but I’ve checked and it’s true, shocking but true. Wow, my three favorite films so far this year are female-led (Emma, Invisible Man, PYW) and I do tend to prefer those overall, but sadly I’m not voting for the Oscars (yet).
I´m sure some stats probably don´t really mean anything and are merely strange coincidences. At least this wouldn´t prevent me from predicting PYW for a screenplay win (I don´t know yet what I will predict, to clarify, but if I pick another candidate it´s surely not because PYW is female-led).
Of course, everyone is free to choose according to their preferences or hunches and we should see no ulterior motive. Also, I’ve read your review for The Dig and it’s been quite helpful as I wondered if I should watch it the other night, but didn’t really want to. Well, maybe I should at least watch the trailer.
Non, Christophe, I don´t want to keept you from watching it! It certainly has strong elements (the acting) and some of the scenes worked pretty well for me, but others were kinda meh. But probably you like it better? Normally I´m really into those splendid british dramas with exquisite landscape shots and romantic stuff in it, but the direction of this one was too clumsy. By the way, I´m following your ratings on letterboxd, always nice to keep track! 😉
Having now watched the trailer, I think I’ll pass for the time being. Some compared it to a Merchant/Ivory film on another thread, but beyond taking place in pre-1950’s upper-class England, I can’t quite see the resemblance, doesn’t look half as delicate, sounds rather hammy actually. I might watch it eventually because Lily James + Johnny Flynn, but it doesn’t seem like essential awards viewing this season (unless it were to take Bafta by storm).
I’m following your ratings too, but I wouldn’t give as much credence to mine, as I often reevaluate them over time. I couldn’t get myself to go below 3 for a while (thought it was mean), so I would try finding redeeming features and ended up giving similar ratings to films I liked and others I disliked. Now I’d rather not rate if I don’t like something, but anything 4+ is usually smth I really enjoyed somehow, 3+ is fine but could be better.
Again, it’s not rocket science accuracy and I often find myself hesitating between rating the artistic value or my sheer enjoyment of a film, which don’t always coincide.
That´s funny! 🙂 I have to admit that I can be a little mean sometimes in that regard! 😉 I gave Hillbilly Elegy half a star, which is harsh I´ll have to admit, but I don´t think it should annoy anybody, it´s just a personal evaluation, no rocket science as you rightly put it. On the other hand, I use personal ratings for films since my teenage years and I always evaluate my personal rating of a film right after I´ve seen it. This makes the letterboxd system fitting perfectly to my own way of evaluating films. And of course, it´s a precondition for me in order to do my Best of lists. Otherwise I would find it extremely difficult to rank films just based on my memory.
The reason why I don´t have that many low ratings, though, is that I´m very picky. I just don´t watch films anymore that I don´t expect that there is at least a chance I like it or certain aspects of it. For this reason I decided to watch Hillbilly Elegy to be able to assess Amy Adams and Glenn Close. Sometimes a bad film has certain aspects that do work very well (well, not in this case for me, just generally speaking).
Out of the 160 movies i watched last year, I rated about 155 of them – 5 i bailed on – and couldn’t bother with a rating or finishing. Like you I generally only watch something I feel i will get something out of, hence my ratings are generally quite high.
Wow, that´s quite impressive! Last year I didn´t see more than about 50 films, I guess, because I pretty much focused on tv series (Ozark, Queen´s Gambit, Narcos, Sex Education and many more), but since December I´m full speed into my film studies! 😉
Yes most people in my life do more series on Netflix than movies- I’m a commitment phobe- series are too much for me! I love movies more.
Commitment-phobe? That´s certainly a new word for my English vocabulary 🙂 (AD is my secret English training program)
Well, I´m certainly Commitment-phile. I´m currently into Proust and A la recherche du temps perdu, this will take me easily 2-3 years I guess. I´ve seen the seven seasons of Mad Men twice, cause I couldn´t let it go… It´s so rewarding for me to immerse so deep into a plot and the characters. But I do get your point, Dave. Films are more sharp and economic in terms of storytelling. I think I love both! 🙂
I’m trying to get through The Crown – i’m still stuck in 1965!
This tv show is on my list – I plan to see all seasons until I took a step forward with my film watchlists (at least until I finished my 1940s retrospective). I know that Christophe likes it very much – what is your opinion so far?
I had fits and starts with the first season. The second i thought was uneven. I’ve only just made the leap from Claire Foy to Olivia Colman and unsure about that. I vowed to wait a while after series 2, but i don’t think it would help – and i’d be further behind everyone else if i drag my heels any longer. I have always been a big fan of Olivia Colman and Helena Bonham Carter and have a bit of a crush on Josh O’Connor, but there’s so many movies to see.
I watched all of Schitt’s Creek – but i savored that – it took me 18 months to watch all 6 seasons – which i thought was still pretty fast, i LOVED it. A fan of Grace & Frankie too.
You have lots of great content on your viewing ‘plate’, Dominik – i admire your committment to the classics.
I agree that ratings are not something that people should get upset about. I also gave Hillbilly Elegy a half-star rating on Letterboxd and for example just a few days ago gave Pieces of a Woman a one-star rating but it’s not like I have immense anger towards these movies, I just found extremely little of value in them and as a result didn’t feel that I could give them a rating that’s higher. In general I’ve heard from friends that I give extreme ratings very easily (in particular they’ve mentioned about the higher ratings but I’m also more easily going to give something a bad rating) but I feel that is necessary, if I try to hold myself from giving movies 5-star or half-star ratings, I’m merely clogging up the middle ratings and as a result something like a two and a half or three star movie suddenly has no meaning as it’s just everything that isn’t high or low. So basically I’m aiming for a ratings distribution where with an infinite amount of movies, the ratings would be divided evenly between the groups. But based on for example last year, I’m still quite a way from that, perhaps it’s just the pandemic making me go see less bad films and focus on watching a lot of films from my favorite directors but of the 450 movies I watched last year, about half recieved at least four starts.
Yes, I did notice that (I´m always checking the activity news to see what you guys have been watching or posting) – and I was a bit shocked about your Pieces of a Woman rating 🙂 And I have to admit, I also thought that you sometimes tend to give extreme ratings, but I totally get your point. I guess I see quite many films that have certain aspects I appreciate while not really achieving greatness in my view and thus ending up with 3 or 3,5 stars. I see that this is a rating category that seem less significant in comparison to a low or a high rating but I guess that most films I watch simply fall into this category of quite good but not entirely convincing.
I am yet to give a movie a ’10’ – I’ve given 9.75 and 9.5 and lower obviously – but never a 10. My belief is there is no such thing as a perfect film . It can be a masterpiece, but i’ll always find something to quibble with. That’s half the fun of being a movie lover. Critiquing
Really? You are a perfectionist, Dave! 😉
I usually find at least one film per year I give the highest rating (a 10 or equivalent 5 stars), but a year with two or more of them is quite an orgasmic year!
ha, i think i’m too kind! i give way too many 9’s each year. About one in 6 movies i see i seem to rank a 9 or above which means they are great – above 9 is great with something really special, or 9.5 or 9.75 really really impressive. 8 is solid, between 8 and 9 is solid but falling shirt of greatness – usually the script.
Yeah, the fear of being mean is a bit ridiculous, since I may have written comments in the past that were more scathing than a bad grade. I actually find it easier to rank films relative to one another, as it seems less formal (to me, maybe not to others), more open to subjectivity than giving a definite grade, but it still feels like comparing apples to oranges.
You’re right about being picky. I sometimes regret forcing myself to watch stuff I wasn’t that interested in, but there are also pleasant surprises, or things I’m glad I watched anyway because they’re artistically or culturally important.
I may have over-valued Hillbilly Elegy, as I was expecting it to be such a disaster that I was relieved to see a thoroughly watchable, by-the-numbers picture, nothing particularly great about it, a bit cringy at times, but not as awful as I thought it would be (I’ve seen way more awful than that), and I do think Close and Adams gave commendable performances. It might’ve been much worse with other actresses.
I do also force myself sometimes in order to be prepared for my Oscar predictions. In that respect for example I think I´m waitung how well News of the world and Malcom & Marie are doing Nomination-wise and decide then to see it or skip it. So many great films on my watchlist, so hard to pick (well, these are problems LOL)…
I’m one act into Malcolm and Marie (i know I am a cinematic heretic – watching movies in bits). It was too late last night – but I made a start. Enjoying it so far, but the reviews that i have heard or read were not positive, but maybe i will be pleasantly surprised.
“I gave Hillbilly Elegy half a star, which is harsh I´ll have to admit”
Two-Face and Half-Star are two of the scariest Dick Tracy villains.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/abdf05377e23df339799147df6e535df75d70c1634bf2dcfd42b2c805eaa4b2e.jpg
LOL Ryan, you should do the FYC ads for this film!
Wow, we’re very similar in all of that (the general approach stuff, I mean – I actually liked HE).
The Dig is not hammy.
Ok well, good to know! It was a bit silly of me to judge it on a trailer anyway. I might catch it eventually, I just don’t feel the urge right now.
It’s quaint and at times a tad sentimental, but Carey Mulligan brings great dignity and the themes overall are thought provoking. Not a great film, imho, but a good one. But it won’t please everyone. It reminded me a little of ‘The Boy Who Harnessed The Wind’ – simple, symbolic storytelling.
I had similar thoughts about it. Fiennes was also very good.
For the record, I didn’t mean the screenplay win stat as something that probably has incredible weight in terms of predicting individual screenplay wins, I just think it describes a certain general notion of how gendered the Academy’s notion of well-written in terms of characters and narratives might be
Yes, I think in that regard it´s actually a very telling observation. I just checked the gender distribution of Academy members: 32% female, 68% male – there you have it, the majority of men obviously mainly focus on storys about male protagonists (strange!).
Wow, crazy that Sound of Music is the previous film on that list before Titanic.
The Sound of Music seems to be in general kind of a weird point in stats about best picture winners where the focus was on the female actors and characters. For example I’ve tried to look for the newest best picture winner that had a female lead but no male lead and didn’t win a supporting male Oscar either (so basically best picture winners where the Academy members couldn’t have just said: “But the character I relate to is this male character in the movie”) and The Sound of Music is possibly the newest example of this (based on whether Plummer was campaigned as lead or supporting), and the only possible example since the early 1930s and late 1920s when movies like Cavalcade and The Broadway Melody are kind of unclear cases as well
I’m starting to think it’ll be Nomadland by process of elimination (though I haven’t seen it). Sasha is right that The Trial of the Chicago 7 just isn’t right for the moment. It’s also just fine, not a #1 pick, but then again, I’ve been wrong about gauging that kind of thing before (see Green Book, etc.). But Trial’s whole thing is about the justice of rioting (defying police) in light of injustice… and that’s an odd thing to be championing in light of the Capitol riots. The difference is obviously that the Capitol rioters were fed by bullshit by a bunch of congressmen/women including the sitting president, but if you believed their bullshit was true, it would be a reasonable thing to do. Seems like an awkward movie for early 2021 IMO.
Great movies this year include Promising Young Woman, Mank, and One Night in Miami (now that’s an ensemble movie if I ever saw one). A gutsy pick for BP that will make an impact and would be remembered would be PYW. That’d be my choice.
Also, is it just me or is the acting a tad awkward in Trial of the Chicago 7? Redmayne, great actor that he is, overdoes it. The actors bounce off each other but there isn’t synergy. It felt like a writer was directing it. I would have rather seen those scenes directed by a theater director.
Your paragraph talking about Oscar voters’ rationale is the truest thing I have ever read on any awards site.
A potentially relevant stat that has been brought to my attention: no movie since Braveheart, the first year of SAG, won Best Picture at the Oscars without either the ensemble nomination or at least two individual SAG acting nominations. Nomadland just has the one (likewise, Promising Young Woman and Mank). So hard to pick between that and Trial right now! For me, at least… Gut says Trial, reason says Nomadland. Only just, in both cases…
That is quite compelling really. My only addition on that (which actually may strengthen the case for Chicago 7) is that for only about half of those years since Braveheart has the preferential vote been in play. As we know some of the BP winners since 09 may not have won under the plurality 5 BP category vote. Those outcomes may have altered that stat re ensemble nom or at least 2 acting nods.
Right now, i think i am the reverse of you – Head says Chicago 7 heart/gut says Nomadland (but also with a disclaimer i haven’t seen Nomadland).
But the fact it applies to movies since Hurt Locker is compelling
Yeah, of course, and AFTRA entering the picture has been an important change, most probably – but the interesting thing is that this stat has held, even so (whereas the pure ensemble nomination stat quickly failed twice in the AFTRA era).
I haven’t seen Nomadland either.
Minari has both. 😉 Just sayin’…
Yeah, but the Globe snubs are just so bad…
My gut says Trial as well. It’s the movie that you can put down in front of everyone, and they will like it and get it. It also seems to have a certain political resonance that may work this year.
Yes, it has all the ingredients and the right narrative. It’s just the trajectory so far hasn’t quite been in line with almost any BP winners over the last 2 decades or so. (True, mostly due to that NBR/NYFCC/LAFCA 2 wins stat, which is bound to fail again eventually, anyway, since there’s no industry overlap, as far as I know.) It also has the a-bit-too-long title issue, the a-bit-too-low Metacritic score issue… A lot of little things that, put together, give me enough reason to doubt it.
That would put Ma Rainey and Minari on top with both Ensemble and two individual nominations if they hadn’t under-performed at the Globes. We have to wait for the rest of the Guilds to let us know whether they agree more with HFPA or SAG.
Well, not really, because the stat only says 2 or more and/or ensemble. 2 or 4 SAG noms are the same thing. (I suspect the numbers support this. Not sure if I’ve ever looked into it, but I doubt movies with 3 or 4 SAG nominations win BP significantly more often than movies with 2 – if they even win it more often at all.) So, Trial and others, like Da 5 Bloods, are just as much on top as Ma Rainey and Minari, in terms of this stat. But not Nomadland or ProYo, that’s the most relevant bit – perhaps.
But definitely that last bit. 🙂 We don’t yet have enough information to completely rule out anything…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tmLZQbxwy88
Completely off topic so forgive me Sasha and Ryan, but the passing of yet another legend this week, for me, required this tribute to be made and posted and shared. A truly wonderful actor of the stage and screen, who earned his first Academy Award nomination at the age of 80! And managed two more; including the prize for ‘Beginners’. This man made history, and made great movies and was indeed a great actor for 8 decades!
I shed many a tear today as the news came through of the death of the legendary Canadian actor Christopher Plummer. Conquering all mediums of his craft, Mr Plummer was best known to generations for his sternly handsome and loving patriarch in ‘The Sound Of Music’ – the Academy Award winning blockbuster which was for many years the highest grossing Motion picture. Christopher struggled with that association; dubbing it ‘The Sound Of Mucus’ – but made peace with it later in life, attending reunions of cast members for television specials and events to mark the anniversaries of this classic film. But the actor continued to work – and won acclaim for movies like ‘The Insider’, ‘The Last Station’ for which he incredibly received only his first Academy Award nomination at the tender age of 80. Two years later the award was his with the beautiful ‘Beginners’ and then a third and final nod and a history making achievement at the age of 89, up for ‘All The Money In The World’- made more incredible that he shot all his scenes in just ten days as part of the re-shoot of the movie and all the scenes involving his character J Paul Getty. Christopher Plummer was at 82, the oldest actor to win an Oscar.
Mr Plummer’s incredible presence and versatility made him one of the most beloved and respected thespians of the second half of the 20th Century. An acclaimed stage actor, he refused to be typecast in anything, and resisted being only remembered for his unforgettable ‘Captain Von Trapp’, but he came to realise that there were worse things to be associated with one of the best loved movies of all time!
The death of Christopher Plummer feels for me like another reminder of the losses that we experience in our lifetime. ‘The Sound Of Music’ feels cellular for me, and for generations who have seen it time and time again. The softening of Captain Von Trapp not just towards his own children, but the opening of his heart to the inimitable Fraulein Maria, and defending his nation; made his character an unforgettable romantic figure, and Mr Plummer filled that role completely. Devastatingly handsome, his dance with Julie Andrews both figuratively and within the narrative was a thing of beauty. Unforgettable. As was Christopher Plummer. Rest In Peace, Sir.
I know this is odd for me to say, but his muscular performance in the otherwise agreeable Star Trek VI was really delightful. Star Trek films usually botch their villains but not him.
I don’t think he was capable of giving a bad performance- he was that good. That committed to the craft.
He had a remarkable last act to his career.
didn’t he just! I can’t recall anyone else having this sort of reinvention.; not in my lifetime.
Paul Newman’s reinvention into a formidable character actor comes close.
it does, although i think Plummer vanished for a decade or two, or it seemed that way – but Newman kept appearing in films. But maybe he also had a period in the wilderness. He seemed to be omnipotent (or is it omni present – i never know which to use) 🙂
Yep, good observation. I just admired Newman’s ability to sink into an ensemble after so many years of stardom. Think if some of our current aging leading men would have learned that skill how many more interesting pictures they could have made (cough cough Harrison Ford cough cough)
indeed. A good role and a good filmmaker should be the driver, whether it’s a lead or not. I wonder if Liam Neeson will spend the rest of his career in ‘action’ movies! 90 year old Liam Neeson chasing a villain on a runaway train!
Cruise is on that track as well. You can sort of see Hanks thinking about taking the dive
I’m surprised he agreed to taking Support in A Beautiful Day In The Neighbourhood – altho he probably knew he would have a better shot there than in lead with Joaquin Phoenix!
The dames’ (Dench, in particular) shift from unknown-in-the USA British acting royalty to Hollywood stardom and Oscar perennials as sexagenarians comes to mind.
True, Dench and Mirren were somewhat late starters for Oscar noms.
Oh, wow… This is sad news indeed… 🙁 He was so good in Knives Out, too! So sad that this was basically his last film performance…
I’ve just rented ‘Boundaries’ – 2018 – probably made before Knives Out – with Vera Farmiga and Christopher Plummer. I had it on my wishlist – but with his death…..
Wow, I hadn’t even heard of that one. He was so active, too, by the way, so late in life – amazing!
I just discovered i have on cable the last on screen credit for Christopher Plummer – ‘The Last Full Measure’ with Sebastian Stan, William Hurt, Ed Harris and also the last credit for Peter Fonda. So i have two to see, to farewell the iconic actor.
Yes, I saw there was that, as well.
“also the last credit for Peter Fonda”
But I didn’t know about this. What a sad coincidence… 🙁
It’s going to be one crowded In Memoriam segment at the Oscars this year, one legend after another.
yes, it’s only early Feb too…..
It’s going to be one crowded In Memoriam segment at the Oscars this year, one legend after another.
I don’t think Sorkin takes Best Director at either DGA or Oscar. Whether the movie has enough #1 votes or high on enough ballots to take Best Picture, i am not so sure. I enjoyed it a lot, but it isn’t a masterpiece, but then masterpieces rarely win BP at the Academy Awards. It ticks plenty of boxes for me but you’re right that a decade ago it may have triumphed. I’m not sure of either the ‘feel good’ factor with it, or the ‘i feel good about voting for it’ factor. But a second viewing is required.
It was not a part of American history that I was acquainted with, so i found it interesting. And the interplay between the myriad of actors was fascinating. I thought it was less shouty or preachy than other Sorkin work; perhaps i was more fascinated by the narrative and didn’t notice his requisite style so much.
Based on what has happened so far, and the pulse of right now – Nomadland seems to be the film that has the strongest pulse. But it is still a way off – the final voting. If exhaustion or indifference has settled in (which is egregious if it does), then which film will benefit from that? One that has been shoved down their metaphorical throats, or one that has gently wafted through the season. I dunno which movie that might be…..
The real question is if he’s getting nominated for one or both of those. (DGA seems probable, Oscar is less clear.) He doesn’t need to win either to win BP. Not even close.
Critics are definitely trying to make Nomadland happen en masse. That typically doesn’t translate to Best Picture. Critical favorite rarely ends up winning.
what’s your predix for BP?
The atypical length of this season could also work in favor of a late-breaker that usually wouldn´t have an impact in past seasons (based on the hectic pace of a normal Oscar year since the ceremony has been moved to February). But I guess a triumph of “Black Messiah” would cancel all relevant stats… 😉 However, the film has an impressive start on Metacritic (84) and I´m curious how far it will go Oscar-wise. Daniel Kaluuya has certainly a shot at winning, but I guess the film could also easily get a couple of above-the-line nominations. One of the few theatrical releases, by the way.
1. Reasonable people could prefer Roma over Green Book without having an insidious political axe to grind. And reasonable people could dislike Roma for valid artistic reasons as well.
2. Chicago 7 is insular, low stakes, by the numbers Boomer self-congratulation. Of course that trial didn’t end the war, the war escalated quite badly afterwards. And the committed activists generally stopped once the draft was gone (which might have been their main objection if you asked them off the record). Think I’m wrong, where was their passion and outrage about the Killing Fields, they were too busy hitting the discos and spoons by that point.
3. I can tell from three minutes of the Judas trailer that Shaka King and Ryan Coogler say substantially more about the high stakes of 60’s radicalism than 2 and a half hours of West Wing: Yippee Edition. But look..Borat’s playing Abbie Hoffman, isn’t that just a gasssssss? Chicago 7 is going to win because despite the Parasite win and the Amigos rise, it’s still by and large a risk averse voting bloc.
I think Judas can still shake the race
I so agree with point 3.
I actually think Green Book is a much better film than Chicago 7. They are both very safe films, but I thought the performances in Green Book were truly special.
The performances in Green Book were stellar (Viggo was remarkably relaxed for once), but the story was so rote you could predict all the plot points.
I liked Rylance a lot in Chicago 7 actually. The change of Tom Hayden into the reluctant radical was so ahistorical it drove me up the wall.
Agreed on Rylance. I’d rank the Chicago 7 supporting men as:
1. Rylance
2. Redmayne
3. Mateen
4. Cohen (not a revelation, but memorable)
5. Langella (I just feel like we’ve seen him do this grump shtick before)
I’ll be a contrarian (not for the sake of it, but how i feel) is the reverse order! I really liked what Langella did with it. Mateen was superb but not sketched nearly enough. I felt like Rylance did nothing especially new or fresh.
Like you, I too am very close to the reverse list here. 🙂
“I felt like Rylance did nothing especially new or fresh.”
Exactly. I don’t get it. He was good, of course, but there were several better performances in the movie, in my opinion. (Some perhaps not even on the list above.)
true ensemble – on that definition alone it deserves the SAG – not for being the ‘best picture’ of the year, but for the best cast acting together and off of one another. Frank Langella was a great villain for everyone else to bounce off.
Definitely the most impressive ensemble I’ve seen so far in a high-profile movie from 2020. (I actually have the ensemble of the less well-known movie Spontaneous – which I loved – in first in that category, but Trial is in second, ahead of Mank, Babyteeth and others. Haven’t seen Ma Rainey and the other SAG nominees yet.)
Young Charlie Plummer (no relation to the great late Christopher Plummer). I didn’t know of this title, Claudiu – will have to check it out.
Charlie Plummer really did deliver the standout performance in that movie (Katherine Langford was also excellent, as she is in everything) – among many other great performances.
It’s a weird, sad-yet-uplifting, marvelously romantic, philosophical and at the same time tremendously funny, wonderfully-directed movie. (It’s been called an allegory for school shootings by several people – that’s not a spoiler, though.) Got great reviews, too. 78 on Metacritic. Better score than our BP winner, in fact, should that be Trial. 🙂 As for me, I loved it on all levels. If I wasn’t so averse to rewatching things too soon, I might have seen it several more times by now. As it is, I’ll probably wait until later in the season to revisit it, but I kinda’ can’t wait… It’s right up my alley, genre-wise, of course – others might not like those aspects as much. But it has many, many qualities of universal appeal, too, I would say.
great review Claudiu – propelled me further to seek it out. Yes so many movies so little time! 🙂
“so many movies so little time!”
That’s, like, my motto, these days… 🙂 I have no doubt I’ll once more wake up this coming September with still 20-30 movies I feel are must-watches that I haven’t managed to see yet… (This year, I managed to get it done in time for the new season, but it took a bit of an effort. A pleasant one, though, as you can imagine.)
yes it’s always a wonderful burden to wade through lots of titles 🙂
Every now and again a little gem will emerge and surprise. Last year it was ‘A Sun’, and ‘Sibyl’ – the year before ‘American Animals’.
I was very close to watching American Animals, I hesitated for a long time but, finally, it was close to the end of the season (I didn’t go over with too much stuff that year, I watched most of what I watched pre-Oscars) and I had too much else still left to see so I decided against it. The other two I’m not sure I even knew about until now – maybe Sibyl. 🙂 Sounds interesting – the presence of Adele Ex. making it even more so…
You really have no clue on what happened in the 60s and 70s. Discos and spoons? Activists did not do that.
I personally loved Green Book. It gave me
major Planes, Trains, and Automobiles vibes. Although I see how it’s approach to racism was overly simplistic. I haven’t heard anyone that loves Chicago 7. It’s fine.
Yes I didn’t ‘love it’ – but liked it a lot
I loved Trial of the Chicago 7.
And I thought Green Book was wonderful.
Green Book was a weak BP winner – Eighth Grade or First Reformed would have been my picks that year – but I’ve always thought the hate for it was way overblown.
First Reformed was truly great, but certainly too gloomy for the Academy. Unforgiveable, though, that they even ignored Ethan Hawke!
Ethan Hawke will get his due someday. I’m sure of it.
I suspect that The Father is about to cut through the field as a sweep threat. There were previous doubts over campaign financing, but I think The Father might be right-place-right-time and increasingly make its presence known. I think we have had a tendency in the past to regard it as a performance-bait flick, but you could have a situation where Hopkins potentially loses but it wins other categories. Bit more steam there than the recent likes of Judy, The Wife, etc.
John David Washington’s ferocious turn and especially Zendaya’s breathtaking performance in Malcolm & Marie deserve every awards attention they could get. While divisive, Levinson’s film features two truly stellar, extremely demanding performances from both but Zendaya’s no holds barred turn is truly telling of the future that she seems to have ahead of hers.
Personally I definitely would be happy seeing someone as young and extremely talented as her being recognized by the Academy for such daring work in such an early stage of her movie career. Never imagined saying she impressed be more than her work in Euphoria but she truly did. Kudos to her, she’s surely going places regardless of whether she gets that 5th slot or not.
good to read your reactions, Stergios – i am planning to watch it this weekend.
Yeah man, like Pieces Of A Woman this is a film you watch anyway for the acting alone. I actually found it weaker than Pieces Of A Woman, it’s a deeply flawed film but definitely ambitious and indicative of Levinson’s talent behind the camera.
And the two leads are definitely the highlight of it since they both knock it out of the park. Zendaya is sensational, it’s amazing how at such an early age a former Disney kid has killed it that way in material as challenging as the one she was provided with Euphoria and now this. Really looking forward in watching whatever she does next (Villeneuve’s Dune included obviously).
Christopher Plummer’s passing, waylaid my plans to watch M&M this yesterday. I watched ‘Boundaries’ and have started ‘The Last Full Measure’ (his last screen credit). I loved Vanessa Kirby in Pieces – much more than the film itself – sounds like you enjoyed Zendaya and Washington’s performances more than the movie in its entirety. I will make sure I see it in the next couple of days as i expect more and more folks to write about it.
Don’t even wanna think of Plummer’s passing. Man, what an actor.
And yeah, I was definitely much more impressed with the performances in Malcolm & Marie than the film as a whole. Loved both actors in it so much more than I already did.
putting it in the diary “watch Malcolm & Marie ASAP” 🙂
Hahaha, love this :)))
I didn’t realise how impactful Plummer had been for me during my lifetime; especially my childhood. ‘That’ movie was such a joyous and ever present part of my youth. And i had such respect for this career once he hit 70 – The Insider, Beginners etc.
Beginners… Shit, even the Oscar can’t do justice to that performance of his there..
And yep, I totally get what you mean, he truly seems to have been part of so many people’s childhood through his part in The Sound Of Music, mine included. It truly seems crazy to think of someone who in a way “always been there” through various stages of your life, especially childhood, gone. He was truly one hell of an actor – loved his turn and character in Knives Out last year so much btw. If it was up to me that film and pretty much every single major cast member would have slayed in last year’s ceremony.
I didn’t see it happening for her after I watched the film, so I’m not surprised she was overlooked by SAG or the HFPA. I would frankly be shocked if she gets Oscar nominated for this. (But if she takes Adams’ spot, I won’t cry about it.)
I actually didn’t think Zendaya was sensational until the end with her final monologue. Then it clicked. I mostly found the film insufferable but the visuals were wonderful
I thought Zendaya was fantastic in it and I wouldn’t mind her getting nominated but I personally thought John David Washington was overacting. His rant about the critic review was just too much. And the script was terrible. The house was beautiful though.
Gorgeous location.
Yep, I get how Washington’s turn can feel a little too much in this – personally I feel he portrayed a character that was a little “too much” (too much ego, too much insecurity, etc.) beautifully but I see your point.
Glad to read you found Zendaya fantastic in this as well and worthy of a nomination. I’m really impressed by her. I wasn’t even that familiar with her work and saw Euphoria and Malcolm & Marie almost back to back so I’m seriously floored by the way she chose to handle that part of her adult career after the Disney shows and Spider-Man films (and she’s terrific in the Spider-Man films as well imho). Truly interested in what she chooses to do next. And I really wish Dune had been released this year.
Sasha : I loved your defense of Green Book The campaign do destroy that movie was shameful . To use Viggo Mortenson’s use of the N- word to suggest he was racist was unforgivable . In a way it reminded me of what was done to tSam Fuller’s little seen and suppressed masterpiece White Dog .The movie was based on a book writtten by Romain Gary who was married to Jean Seberg who like Fred Hampton was harassed by the FBI with similar tragic results . White Dog starred Kristy McNichol , Burl Ives and Paul Winfield with a score by Ennio Morricone . It should not be forgotten .
Trial fans had better hope BAFTA didn’t like it too much, or else it’s probably not winning Best Picture at the Oscars. :)) (Going by the last 6 years, anyway.)
Depending on how things shape, it will just be an Argo sort of season with the Oscar nomination for Best Directing but without the DGA win. And Argo won BAFTA.
Do we really think Trial can sweep the precursors like that? I find it hard to picture things going down that way. It doesn’t feel like a juggernaut – then again, I guess Argo didn’t either… Until it was.
So If the Twitter hive mind has little impact on voting (since, as you point out, it hasn’t impacted the chances of films like “Green Book”), do we need to keep hearing about how awful they are, since your analysis shows this hive mind is mostly ignored when the Academy votes? This seems more like a way to sneak in a dig at Democrats than an analysis of who’ll win Best Picture — two very different things that, as your analysis shows, aren’t really related.
And, like, this isn’t true: “The left of late seems to be torn about whether violence is acceptable or not.” Every elected Democrat from Joe Biden on down denounced violence during BLM protests over the summer, whereas Republicans voted en masse just days ago to ignore consequences for violent protests at the Capitol. No both sides here.