Update: We are moving the preferential ballot to a new post.
It is the longest Oscar season in the 93 year history of the awards. It’s longer than any actual Oscar ceremony. We still have two more months to go. By the end of this month we will know two things. 1) Who wins the Golden Globes. And 2) What the Writers Guild nominated. Let Foghat lead the way. This is your theme for Oscars 2021:
If this were an ordinary year we would have many films to choose from. But this year, we are working from a much smaller list. We have one guild down, SAG, and we have a few more to go. They will all start to vote by the end of this month and into March. By March 10, all of the Oscar ballots will be turned in. Though the Oscars are a long way off, the first chapter in this story will be over in a few weeks.
Let’s visit AwardsWatch‘s handy dandy calendar:
Feb 12th – Writers Guild of America Voting Ends (WGA)
Feb 16th – Writers Guild of America Nominations (WGA)
Feb 17th – Directors Guild of America Voting Opens (DGA)
Feb 18th – Make-Up & Hairstylists Guild Nominations (IATSE Local 706)
Feb 19th – Final Writers Guild of America Voting Begins (WGA)
Feb 23rd – Final Golden Globe Voting Ends 5pm PT (HFPA)
Feb 25th – Producers Guild of America Nomination Voting Begins (PGA)
Feb 28th – Golden Globe Awards (HPFA)
March 1st – Golden Reel Award Nominations (MPSE)
March 2nd – Art Directors Guild Nominations (ADG)
March 2nd – Cinema Audio Society Nominations (CAS)
March 3rd – Annie Award nominations
March 4th – Costume Designers Guild nominations (CDG)
March 5th – Oscar Nomination Voting Begins
March 5th – Final Writers Guild of America Voting Ends (WGA)
March 7th – Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA)
March 8th – Producers Guild of America Nominations (PGA)
March 9th – American Society of Cinematographers Nominations (ASC)
March 9th – Directors Guild of America Nominations (DGA)
March 9th – Final Directors Guild of America Voting Begins (DGA)
March 9th – EE British Academy Film Awards Nominations (BAFTA)
March 10th – Oscar Nomination Voting Ends
Roughly one month from now minds will be made up. After that, it’s about the winners, not the nominees. I imagine things are going to get a little more heated in the last week of voting. It is said that Oscar voters mostly do it quickly and get it over with fast (that’s what she said) and I would imagine this year that will be especially true as most probably want this season to end at last. But we’re flying blind so we do not know what they’re going to do. It’s those new members who are most unpredictable. Do they watch everything? Do they lazy-vote like so many retired or veteran Oscar voters have in the past, or does their more active involvement in budding careers make them more conscientious? The Academy was much more predictable back then but now the idea of fresh new viewpoints and excited new members might shift things in a different direction, but we just can’t know what direction that will be.
SLOW RIDE. TAKE IT EASY.
We think we have our narrative already and have had it for a while now. It is about inclusion. At least that is the unsaid narrative evidenced by how the critics awards have come down so far. In some cases, it could be joked about as “the year without white men.” I know, this is not the time for jokes. The two who seem to be getting a pass are Aaron Sorkin and David Fincher, at least for now. I would add Paul Greengrass too as News of the World is popping up here and there. But we do not know whether this will be how it all shakes out or not. We are weathermen, not rainmakers.
And I don’t think you could create a situation this year that wasn’t inclusive because there have been so many doors open this year to women and people of color that the industry is going through a bit of a renaissance of opportunity. That’s not a bad thing. It is something to celebrate. Does that mean that we are getting away from the idea that it should only be about what is best? Some believe that and have honestly found themselves uninterested in film awards because of that assumption. I hear that all of the time from people when I bring up the Oscars. But I personally don’t think that is the problem with the Oscars or the industry overall. It is not a problem of creating more opportunities and honoring the best. Rather, it is more a problem of how this can perceived as insularity and exclusivity – that is what I think is getting lost in how the Oscars are evolving. I think it can be fixed if the Oscars macro out a bit and start including more popular films. The age old problem.
Either which way, here are my predictions for today, February 12, 2021.
Best Picture
Frontrunners
Nomadland — AFI/NBR/Globes Pic+Dir+Scr/SAG acting
The Trial of the Chicago 7 — AFI/Globes Pic+Dir+Scr/SAG acting + ensemble
Minari – AFI/NBR/SAG acting + ensemble
Mank – AFI/Globes Pic+Dir+Scr/SAG acting
One Night in Miami – AFI/Globes Dir
News of the World NBR/SAG acting
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – SAG acting+ensemble
Promising Young Woman – NBR/Globes Pic+Dir+Scr/SAG acting
Longer shots: Any of these films could be boosted by either Globes or BAFTA
Da 5 Bloods – SAG acting + ensemble
Soul – Picture, Animated Feature, Screenplay, Score – PGA
The Father – Globes Pic/SAG acting
Sound of Metal – AFI/NBR
Judas and the Black Messiah – AFI/NBR/SAG acting
The Mauritanian – Globes acting
That would mean 8 nominees. To meet the threshold for nomination, each of these films have to get around 5% of number one votes or a total of 5% with 2 and 3 choices. That means, let’s say a film reaches the nomination threshold, like Nomadland, for instance. Whatever is left over their first choice is tossed and their second choice is counted. What movies do you imagine people will choose as their top ten? We’re going to try an experiment below. You are going to submit your top ten films – but you can enter between 5 and 10. You don’t have to fill all 10 slots (because Oscar voters don’t either) but I want to run it and see how it turns out. Please see the new post for the updated form.
Best Director
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (Globes)
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Globes)
David Fincher, Mank (Globes)
Regina King, One Night in Miami (Globes)
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Next tier
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (Globes)
Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
Paul Greengrass, News of the World
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
Lee Daniels, United States vs. Billie Holiday
Florian Zeller, The Father
George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Actor
Frontrunners
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Globes/SAG)
Anthony Hopkins, The Father (Globes/SAG)
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (Globes/SAG)
Gary Oldman, Mank (Globes/SAG)
Steven Yeun, Minari (SAG)
Strong contenders
Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian (Globes)
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Tom Hanks, News of the World
Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round
John David Washington, Malcolm & Marie
Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami
Ben Affleck, The Way Back
Colin Firth, Supernova
Best Actress
Frontrunners
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (Globes/SAG)
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Globes/SAG)
Andra Day, United States vs. Billie Holiday (Globes)
Frances McDormand, Nomadland (Globes/SAG)
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (Globes/SAG)
Strong contenders:
Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (Globes)
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (Globes)
Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie
Robin Wright, Land
Best Supporting Actor
Frontrunners
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (Globes/SAG)
Sacha Baron Cohen, Trial of the Chicago 7 (Globes/SAG)
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (Globes/SAG)
Bill Murray, On the Rocks (Globes)
Jared Leto, The Little Things (Globes/SAG)
Strong contenders
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Frank Langella, Trial of the Chicago 7
Mark Rylance, Trial of the Chicago 7
Arliss Howard, Mank
Stanley Tucci, Supernova
Damian Bichir, Land
Bo Burnham, Promising Young Woman
David Strathairn, Nomadland
Charles Dance, Mank
Best Supporting Actress
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (Globes/SAG)
Helena Zengel, News of the World (Globes/SAG)
Olivia Colman, The Father (Globes/SAG)
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (Globes/SAG)
Amanda Seyfried, Mank (Globes)
Strong Contenders
Maria Bakalova (SAG)
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (Globes)
Dominique Fishbeck, Judas and the Black Messiah
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of Woman
Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
Original Screenplay
Trial of the Chicago 7, Aaron Sorkin (Globes)
Promising Young Woman, Emerald Fennell (Globes)
Mank, Jack Fincher (Globes)
Soul, Pete Docter, Mike Jones, Kemp Powers
Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Eliza Hittman
Next tier
On the Rocks, Sofia Coppola
Ammonite, Francis Lee
Adapted Screenplay
Nomadland, Chloe Zhao (Globes)
The Father, Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller(Globes)
News of the World, Paul Greengrass, Luke Davies
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Ruben Santiago-Hudson
One Night in Miami, Kemp Powers
Cinematography
Mank
Nomadland
News of the World
Judas and the Black Messiah
Trial of the Chicago 7
Editing
Nomadland
Trial of the Chicago 7
Mank
Promising Young Woman
Judas and the Black Messiah
Production Design
Mank
Mulan
Emma
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Promising Young Woman
Sound
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
The Outpost
The Prom
Costumes
Mank
David Copperfield
Emma
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mulan
Score
Nomadland
News of the World
Soul
Mank
Trial of the Chicago 7
Next tier:
Tenet
The Midnight Sky
Hair/Makeup
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Emma
Hillbilly Elegy
One Night in Miami
Animated Feature
Soul
Wolfwalkers
Earwig and the Witch
Onward
The Croods
Documentary Feature
Crip Camp
All in The Fight for Democracy
Collective
Dick Johnson is Dead
The Truffle Hunters
Foreign Language
Another Round (Denmark)
Collective (Romania)
Once Upon a Time in Venezuela (Venezuela)
La Llorona (Guatemala)
Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
