Is everyone up for whatever is up with the Golden Globes tonight? We see that E! channel has their usual 2-hour “Countdown to the Red Carpet” scheduled, so maybe they know something we don’t? At any rate, let’s be ready to through the motions, shall we?
Based on the Golden Globes result, it’s obvious that late releases were an advantage and have paid off especially for the performers. I mean, having seen all the Lead Actress Musical/Comedy nominees, Rosamund Pike (whom I love in Gone Girl and An Education) is the weakest. The HFPA also loves her giving her nod for A Private War. Yes, Hudson is actually good in Music and has good well… music, despite the film being “problematic” with its portrayal of autism. Excited to see her in Amirpour’s Mona Lisa and the Blood Moon! I mean being a triple threat like Hudson deserves a good material worthy of her talent!
I think Bakalova is safe for a nomination for the only reason that IF the voters have seen Borat 2, she’s a clear standout. It maybe hard not to remember her during nominations and she has the critics behind her.
And late releases might fare better for actual Oscar WINS than usual because the Oscars are so late this year. There’s almost 2 months til the Oscars. More time for voters to ruminate on these late-breakers and grow a little stale on the films that have been out for a long time, now.
Right. And with the pandemic where no left and right FYC screenings and events, the films which have been released earlier may be deemed too “old” for their memory. I think that’s the reason why Emma. missed ADG.
everybody has seen Borat 2. Giuliani is to blame
Supporting Actress is fascinating.
Close and Colman APPEAR strongest for a nom (and really, both for the win, unless you think Youn is nominated and gets swept up in Minari love).
After Close and Colman, though … yeesh!
-Seyfried – lost last night and not nominated for SAG. Mank seems to be fading.
-Youn – will the actors branch spring for an Asian actor? Sadly, it happens VERY infrequently.
-Zengel – GG/SAG/Bafta long listed. She’s also adorable & AMPAS loves child actors.
-Burstyn – AMPAS actors branch loves to honor these legends out of nowhere.
-Bakalova – I think her stock went down quite a bit, but could still make it.
-Foster – BIG boost last night. And … BAFTA loved The Mauritanian (looking at the long lists).
Best acting race by far.
I haven’t seen Minari, The Father and The Mauritanian yet, but my rank on the performances, all things considered (challenge, quality of the performance, risk taking the role, etc)
1. Bakalova
2. Burstyn
3. Seyfried
4. Close
Any of them would be a deserving winner. But Bakalova in my opinion had the bigger risk and challenge, by far. It was potentially a career-finisher turn, and with the suicidal taks of being on par with improvisation master Sacha Baron Cohen (being only 24!)
Bakalova is the only one that makes sense as a winner. Whether Borat 2 makes Picture line up or not. But if it does, it’s hers to lose.
That’s also my ranking among SA contenders but having seen The Father and Minari, Youn takes the top spot while Colman takes the 5th behind Seyfried but that’s a really close ranking. But my persinal preference would be:
1. Youn
2. Mahaffey
3. Bakalova
4. Bergen
5. Burstyn
6. Seyfried
7. Colman
8. Zengel
9. Ryder
10. Han
11. Ronan
12. Close
This category is a bloodbath based on the quality of performances, tbh! Looking forward to see The Mauritanian.
I didn’t think Bergen did anything special… but to me, “Let them all talk” was a snooze fest. I never got engaged with the film… I thought that “The Laundromat” was waaaay better and more engaging… and also more poignant, and Streep was also way better there (and Oldman and Banderas were better in that one, than Bergen, Hedges and Wiest on this one). But that’s personal taste.
This race is just crazy. I’m just so sad for Amanda. It looks like her chances are dead and her turn as Marion Davies in Fincher’s brilliant film is just exceptional. A shame. I so wanted her to win that Globe last night.
I still believe Close will take the Oscar!
Can’t resist to comment something… the Globes launched a curve ball in Supporting Actress. Bakalova is on the edge of a nomination for the Oscars, but losing tonight, combined with Foster winning, just launched her to the frontrunner status for the win, at the Oscars. Now she’s perceived as “snubbed”, none of her real competitors won (Foster was a shocking nom and even more shocking win), and Borat was celebrated with 2 wins, deemed it as “worthy” of Oscar recognition. As there are SO MANY precedents of breakthrough comedic actresses winning in Supporting, given also the competition this year (Colman won recently, Close is in a panned film and nobody consider it even among the career’s best, Youn would be a shocker given Oscar history, Seyfried has lost so much steam and Mank is struggling for many noms…) her performance is the one that stands out from the rest, the others might split the drama votes… at this point, I am quite uncertain if Bakalova is getting nominated, but however, if nominated – and specially if Seyfried, her main vote syphooner, but also Zengel aren’t nominated – she might win. Specially if the quintet is Youn – Foster – Close – Colman – Bakalova.
There’s also the political component of her performance… many people in Hollywood will be kind and gentle with the political purpouse of the film, and how it exposed Giuliani (and how risky it was for her), helping a bit for Biden’s campaign.
Bakalova won’t be nominated now, I think. We’ll see in two weeks.
She needed this win.
And Zengel is in the “quintet”, believe it or not. And I wonder who is stronger now: Close or Seyfried?
I’d say, for now: Youn-Foster-Colman-Zengel-Seyfried
I doubt any AMPAS member was holding the ballot waiting to see who wins the Globe. Specially since HFPA has nothing to do with AMPAS
She may yet get a nomination but I just can’t see Bakalova winning. I think Close is still up top.
Why not Colman? I mean, Ali has proven that it is possible for a recent winner to win yet again (in his case, both were undeserved, in my opinion). But if Close and Colman are both gonna be nominated again, we can always use the tired, convenient and lazy analysis used against Colman’s first win which was “being in a movie that was seen widely by the Academy”. In this case, The Father, which will most likely get Screenplay and Lead Actor nods. Colman is also in a way, waaaaaay, WAAAAAAAY better film yet again.
Colman depends on BAFTA. If she doesn’t win it (and I think she won’t), she becomes a longshot for the Oscar win.
You may have a point but Ali had the Best Picture win going for him. Colman beating Close again at the Oscars would be a real kick in the teeth.
I’m not sure this being-perceived-as-snubbed narrative has ever been a thing, not even the Argo year. I think maybe Argo would have won everything regardless. It won Critics Choice the day the Oscar nominations came out, so no influence there, and same goes for the Golden Globes (where it also won the big prize), which were held just three days later, so clearly voting and tabulation was long over by the 10th (when Affleck’s AMPAS snub was revealed). That already made it the clear front-runner, wins-wise. Would it have faced backlash later, in the guilds phase, had it not had the supposed goodwill coming from his snub? Who knows?! A GG+BFCA winner can certainly lose BP, but they don’t exactly do it often… No, I think being snubbed is almost always bad – and losing when nominated is maybe even worse for a contender’s chances. Which is what it will be for Bakalova as well…
I agree – and I believe that the opposite kind of thing is relevant sometimes: that a film which got praised by the critics and literally swept the various Critics Circle awards (plus in some cases also the Globes) generates a certain ennui within parts of the Academy and thus loses Best Picture (and ends up with one consolation award in a minor category at best).
Absolutely! 100% a thing.
I guess Supporting Actress is all over the place. Bakalovas winning chances got hurt, but Glenn Close clearly got hurt too – especially since the HFPA doesn´t have the reputation for shying away from a film panned by the critics (which is rather the case for the Academy). I mean, if Close didn´t win here I don´t see her winning at the Oscars.
that’s my point… Bakalova got relatively hurt, but she’s the underdog for a nomination given the genre bias. BUT, she got unscratched in the category as she lost to Pike, but not to the rest of the contenders for the Supporting Actress Oscar, AND the film got 2 out of its 3 nominations translated into wins, therefore the film got reinforced (Borat DID NOT WIN PICTURE!) and therefore the “Argo” factor is introduced, with her feeling “snubbed” rather than a “loser”. And again, Tatum O’Neal, Goldie Hawn, Mira Sorvino, Marisa Tomei… but also think of Anna Paquin (classic underdog nobody thinks can win, and suddenly emerges as the winner, with “classic” voting splitting among the other almost exchangable contenders…). It has happened before, many times.
So, I am unsure if she will be nominated (10 names are still in the running and I wouldn’t be in shock with any of them missing the cut), but IF nominated, unless Seyfried AND/OR Zengel get nominated as well, I think she would be the likely winner. But again, anything goes.
I think that Youn might be a threat to Bakalova as well, especially since Minari may most likely be very popular with the Academy (and nominated in the top categories). Anyway, I´m crossing fingers for Bakalova to at least get a nomination, which would be a big thing, given that performance and film will be offensive for many “sensitive” Academy members. 😉
there are precedents for Bakalova, but not for Youn. Never a foreign language performance won this award, and I think also that they tend to go for younger rather than elderly. Youn winning would break all stats, Bakalova would be just another name in a list of winners.
In the leading category there is a clear tendency to award young actresses over the years, that´s noticeable, but not for supporting. Compared to “Borat 2” and “Hillbilly Elegy”, “Minari” will be the most respectable choice, I guess. If that´s a factor, Youn could win – no matter if she´d be the first foreign language winner performance in that category (by the way, is that really true?).
Seyfried is getting nominated; Zengel may well be nominated too.
I don’t think Foster was a “shocking” nomination at all. She’s outstanding in The Mauritanian. Many people predicted she could break through with HFPA. The win was certainly an upset, but was also a very real possibility mentioned by many prognosticators. And she has been doing several very lovely, candid interviews, where you can tell she really loved the character and the real-life woman she is based on. I think after her Globe win, Foster is getting a spot at the Oscars.
Bakalova won’t be nominated. That’s what I thought since the first time I saw that movie that doesnt deserve any Oscar nomination. We’ll see it in two weeks
what we think “deserves” or “not”, doesn’t matter to any AMPAS member… “Crash”, “A Beautiful Mind”, “Million Dollar Baby” are Best Picture winners, for the matter.
Sorry but it’s only my perception and my point of view about her performance and her movie which, I think, aren’t Oscar-nomination worthy. You have made your opinion very clear since the beggining of this awards season. Other people would like to share our perspectives as well. As I mentioned, we will have to wait until march 15th. to find out.
By the way, I can see the Oscar-calibre of the three movies you mentioned or at least the nominations for best picture.
it’s my opinion and given the IMDB Awards page of the film and the actress, it’s shared by most?
Also, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm is now a Golden Globe Best Picture winner and a WGA nominee, plus has one acting nomination at the SAG and the CC. It’s a longshot and I don’t think it will make the cut for Picture at the Oscars, but Adapted Screenplay AND Bakalova (even Song!) are still possible, even likely (in both Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay) for noms.
Unlikely but anything goes.
I just think Bakalova will struggle because the actors branch is usually more high-minded with their noms than a Borat movie/that type of performance (however skilled it is).
I can see your point and I agree
A lot of people are saying that TTOTC7 is your classic Argo-type of winner. Having said that, Nomadland seems to feel, to me, like the type of film that could get a brunt of 1s 2s and 3s because there’s nothing to hate about it. Same for Minari, really.
Nomadland will likely win Director. There is no controversy surrounding it. And TTOTC7 does have its haters. So, I’m thinking of switching over to a Nomadland winning BP. I still want to wait and see what CC/BAFTA/Guilds have to say.
I agree there is no controversy about Nomadland, but one thing that is working against it winnig Best Picture is its subdued nature and a nearly non-existent plot. I wonder how many voters will finish seeing it?
Hey Dominik – i’m going off topic, but saw you were online! I had myself some retail therapy on the weekend, and bought some foreign language DVD’s. ‘Corpus Christie’, ‘My Days Of Glory’, The Mystery of Henri Pick’ and ‘Tokyo Story’. all movies were 20% off, so i went art house and bought up big. I realised I had never seen Tokyo Story and it was you and Ferdinand i think (or was it Christophe) – anyway it was you writing so beautifully about it – and it was there….. I shall report back when i watch – although i have so much entertainment to consume. I am so greedy!!! 🙂 hope you are doing well.
Hey Dave, thanks – great to hear! I´m looking forward to hear how you liked Tokyo Story! I haven´t seen the other films you mentioned but I just finished Nomadland – I´m a bit mixed about it. Beautifully shot, empathic social portrait, but also quite exhausting, especially the first half… Did you see it?
no, haven’t seen it. It had a week of previews in December, but i didn’t make the effort. Think it opens more expansively here later this month. I will have to (i kinda do and kinda don’t want to – i’m unsure if it will be to my liking), but i hate not being part of the conversation!! With streaming, I have been able to see so many of the heavy hitters the same time as folks everywhere else.
‘My Days Of Glory’ has special resonance for me – it was the only movie I saw in the middle of last year. After the lockdowns in March, apart from cinemas being shut for a couple of months, there was little inducement for me to return mid year – except when they re-launched the French festival – having scrapped it in March due to the pandemic. . I bravely ventured out with mask and sanitiser, and saw one of my current favourites Vincent Lacoste in ‘My Days Of Glory’. He has turned in some great performances the last few years and is still really young – he has that ‘je ne sais quoi’ quality for me. The film has tonal shifts. but is a beautiful portrait of a young man struggling to find himself and make sense of the world. The other three films i bought are sight unseen!
Are your cinemas re-opened or did you stream Nomadland?
Yes, I fortunately found a way to stream it – it´s unsure when the cinemas can re-open here since we are facing the consequences of the so-called British mutation. Means, the infections rise again and on the other hand the vaccination moving forward too slow. Looks like we will have a couple of stressful months ahead before the situation hopefully eases in the summer. I have the same motivation like you, especially in the Awards season it´s important to stay in conversation and see at least some of the most important contenders. It certainly also helps with the predictions – although I´m more puzzled now than before which film might prevail in the end! 😉
I’ll add to the controversy.
The reason I feel like it can win Best Director, and only Best Director, is that it has a completely different style of movie making, where there is no plot, barely a script, and much of the film is thought of and filmed on the same day.
There was too much improvisation when it came to the filming. As said by McDormand “I don’t really ever feel like I had an artifact that was a script. We had scenes that were written, but it was much more of a blueprint, I think, for Chloé than it was a script per se. Not a script like a traditional script.” Working with nonactors, she explains, “I was always trying to be like, ‘Oh, maybe I can help. Maybe I can say something and help them talk.’ And what Chloé really needed me [to do] was just to be quiet and be there and be a part of the architecture of the scene.”
So I don’t see it winning screenplay based off that they didn’t have or use a script when they filmed certain scenes.
Also, there’s nothing that seems difficult when it came to filming.
Look at Parasite. The framing, the blocking, all working together in unison.
Look at Roma. Every shot it seems has a thousand moving pieces.
Look at Shape of Water. The style and design of every scene screaming Del Toro.
Now look at Nomadland. It looks like a documentary. No amazing shots that were figured out before hand to tell a great story.
For some people, this is a different style of filmmaking that works for them, but not for me.
So, let’s just say not everyone likes the movie.
I’m happy for Boseman’s highly potential Oscar win. Having said that, I was kind of hoping for a Hopkins/Ahmed possibility both here and at BAFTA just to spice things up. I do hope and still predict that Boseman wins the Oscar.
I was hoping the the HFPA would pick Hopkins since he has yet to win a Globe.
Jazz’s updated supporting actress Oscar noms on Gold Derby tonight are fire!
1-Foster
2-Colman
3-Zenegel
4-Burstyn
5-Bakalova
That would be a final five that nearly no one would have predicted. Love it.
I fail to see a narrative to give a third Oscar in Supporting to someone that already has two in Lead (one of those not that deserving) for a film without a great reception that she is not even the MVP. It’s clearly Tahar (my previous spelling mistake lead to a pretty cool nickname, though).
Tahim is the perfect contraction of Tahar Rahim
I love the nickname Ta-him. Amazingly talented and not out of the race as I see. The performance in Un Prophète should have been one of those that traveled to the American awards. Terrific in the underrated The Looming Tower. He could still sneak in at 5.
The Mauritanian has a better critical reception than Hillbilly Elegy, and Glenn is certainly getting in. Critics are not the industry, and we clearly see the industry pushing back this year, not wanting to be told what to do. Plus, look at Rotten Tomatoes where The Mauritanian has 70% fresh with critics vs. 86% fresh with audiences. I’m not saying Foster will win the category. But people do like this movie and like her performance in it (I personally think she is equally as great as Rahim in the film and was glad they were both nominated last night), and I think she gets an Oscar nomination. Bakalova, Seyfried, and Burstyn are all vulnerable contenders, and now Jodie has a win with a charming acceptance speech under her belt.
No Minari! Omg but they are not going to do 2 Hollywood outsiders in Bakalova and Zengel.
Foster’s odds at getting a SA nomination have increased to 0.0001%
love it.
The 10th AACTA Internationals are on Friday. They traditionally happen around the same time as the Globes. Noms were only announced a fortnight ago.
Picture:
The Father
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7
They nominated Nomadland in Director, Screenplay, Actress, Supp. Actor & Supp. Actress, whilst Minari got no other noms besides Picture. But their most useful stat is whatever wins Picture.
Previous winners: The Artist, Silver Linings Playbook, Gravity, Birdman, Mad Max: Fury Road, La La Land, 3Billboards, Roma, Parasite…
i.e. they tend to choose films that end up being top 2 contenders on the night (MM:FR didn’t seem top 2 but won the most Oscars, whilst SLP had the rareness of the four acting categories/big 5 nom sweep).
Zhao is the Oscar narrative now. Has a legit chance at the four oscar night that Cuaron nearly pulled off.
The last 4 Golden Globe winners for both picture and director all went on to lose Best Picture at the Oscars. Overall in the modern preferential era the record is 1/7: only Argo managed it, after somehow missing the directing nomination – Avatar, The Social Network, Boyhood, The Revenant, La La Land and 1917 are the six that failed, out of which only The Revenant and La La Land won Best Director, at least… (One might also count Roma here, since it won director and foreign film and may well have beaten Bohemian Rhapsody had it been eligible in drama.) I guess this isn’t such great news for Nomadland. (I knew lone GG directing or lone GG picture winners won the BP more often, but I didn’t know/remember that the record for GG picture+director winners was so dismal.)
Throughout the PGA era, the overall record for lone GG directing winners that were nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars (which Nomadland most certainly will be) winning it never strays from the 50% line and is 5/10 overall. (I’m not counting foreign film winners that won the directing Globe as well – not the same thing.) Of course, GG BP+BD translating to BP at the Oscars is also basically on 50% in the PGA era (8/17 by my count, I think), it’s just really bad since the switch to preferential. Which makes a ton of sense.
I thought about that but I don’t see a Parasite or Birdman about to swoop into the guilds to recalibrate the race. Given Netflix’s bad showing tonight, is A24 sitting well because at least SOME screens have Nomadland screening.
What’s wrong with Trial? 🙂 (I mean strictly as a contender, not as a movie – that’s another discussion.) It can easily fill that role. It can win PGA, SAG and WGA. Pretty comfortably.
I appreciate your puns Pete.
Parasite didn’t sweep the guilds. Just won SAG.
Claudiu, you are from Romania, right? Confident in the first-ever Oscar nomination for the country? I think it’s coming finally.
I am.
I’m not confident, but I assume it will finally happen for us. Hoping for two, obviously… 🙂 And hoping to fight for that win. I loved Colectiv!
I have watched 13/15 shortlisted films for International Feature and Doc. I have to say… there is only a film I probably liked better in International Feature: Quo Vadis, Aida?. So hard to decide.
In the doc side, two films will feature in my personal top 10 of the year. Colectiv is the best, followed by the also masterful Welcome to Chechnya. I loved Boys State and a couple of others but there is no comparison here. Colectiv and Chechnya belong to a different dimension.
I really hope Colectiv scores both nominations (and I think it will) and wins Doc Feature.
I think it’s one of those defining films. If I had to say what I think it’s a perfect documentary, it’s Colectiv. All the elements I value in a doc are there.
Oh yeah, it’s just incredible! There’s literally nothing I can criticize about it and it’s tremendously engrossing…
It’s my overall #3 right now and should easily make my final top 10, maybe even top 5.
The real test of whether or not Nomadland might win Best Picture will be, I’m telling you, the Scripter.
Definitely seems like one of the big ones – I’m still not 100% convinced it can dominate screenplay like so many are predicting. If it can and it keeps winning director as well, I mean, just hand it Best Picture, already!… 🙂
Please let Nomadland keep winning. Oscar voters are finally going to say enough with this crap.
Oh, and the NBR-GG-DGA-WGA stat (which, again, is on 100% since 1950) looks like it might produce a pretty short list of contenders this year, if Nomadland indeed wins DGA as well (which seems locked, more or less, even so early on):
– Da 5 Bloods might not even be nominated for Best Picture and Borat 2 almost definitely won’t;
– Nomadland has won/is winning both the other Globe and DGA;
– which leaves two slots for WGA winners, presumably Trial and one other. And those will be all of your real BP win contenders… (Unless of course the stat somehow picks this of all years to fail.)
Do you think that Day and Foster can both win Oscars if they are snubbed for Bafta and SAG? I know it happened with Regina King. Of course Marcia Gay Harden was not nominated for anything.
But Regina King was beloved that particular year and had a narrative. I don’t see the same come-in-and-win-without-SAG/BAFTA passion for Foster or Day.
I don’t think either is winning. It just seems like this means we won’t have sweeps in at least 3/4 categories, which is what we usually get.
Maybe Close wins the Oscar despite losing the Globe and maybe even losing the SAG and Bafta. Happened with Marcia Gay Harden. Close is not overdue at either the SAG or Bafta.
But at that point she would have even less than Harden, since Harden at least had a major critcs ‘award.
Yeah, she probably needs to win SAG, ’cause she ain’t winning BAFTA alone… (And I don’t think she’s winning Critics Choice.) Though she might win BAFTA if she wins SAG first.
I agree. If anything, this helps both Foster and Day to secure the Oscar nominations because an hour ago those weren’t considered to be done deals, either, but winning seems out of reach. At this stage even the nominations would be quite the accomplishment though stats-wise.
Feels to me like Day gets in, but Foster?! Out of nowhere? Andra Day was definitely very much in the conversation even before the first major precursors announced nominations. Was Foster? Also, Day has Critics Choice and one or two other critics phase nominations. Foster has none, I think.
If Foster is in … who is out? Bakalova seems likely. And what of Zengel/Youn/Burstyn? Will Seyfried be out? I think BAFTA will clear up a lot.
I am strangely more confident about Seyfried than I should be based on stats. I think the final 4 will be Close, Colman, Youn, Seyfried and the fifth slot could be down to Foster and Burstyn.
Sounds viable, and yet … what makes you confident that Zengel is out? She made GG/SAG/Bafta long list and is in a film that BAFTA seems to really admire, as well.
And AMPAS has shown in the past that they have no problem nominating child actors.
It’s just so difficult, isn’t it!? Lol. Could be any of those 7, or 8 if we still think Bakalova is in the mix; I currently do not, either.
With Zengel what makes me think that I am actually underestimating her, is the fact that her film very much felt like something the Academy would eat up thus could do a lot better with them than with any other major precursor group. But for now I think she is #6-7 roughly.
How does she compare in the film to, say, Steinfeld or Breslin for their nominations?
I think the difficulty level is more complex. Breslin was doing standard comedy / physical comedy and Steinfeld was in feisty youngster mode.
Zengel, a native German speaker, had to play this role in two foreign languages (English, Kiowa) and the character also required her to play someone who grew up in the Kiowa tribe. So just based on these, I think a lot more prep work and research had to go into this performance than those other two. The language aspect alone was significant.
Steinfeld’s role was complex AF, IMO… 🙂 A lot more than just feisty youngster. But I agree about Breslin, for the most part – though she did great things with it. I also agree Zengel’s is the hardest, maybe by far. (On the other hand, I don’t think she does that amazingly in it – solid, maybe even very good, at most, but definitely not amazing.)
Also child performances always need a corresponding BP nomination, I can only think of one (Keisha Castle-Hughes) who got in without it, and while News of the World could score a filler BP nod, it isn’t guaranteed at all at the moment.
Very good point…
Me too. 🙂 Seyfried just seems like she has to get nominated, if Mank is to do as well on the 15th as its leading GG & BFCA nominations suggests. The whole thing just doesn’t make a great deal of sense without her in there… (Now, I could see her getting snubbed if Mank underperforms, of course. But I’m fairly sure it won’t.)
Except BAFTA is nominating 6 this year. So they’re still going to keep us confused.
good point. but the winner will be forensically examined!
I am not convinced that the votes of the Hollywood Foreign Press and its 90 people are that influential. It will shake things up, but not a direct nexus to the other awards. But stranger things have happened…..
So big takeaways of the night ? For me :
– The Trial of the Chicago 7 seems to be THAT early frontrunner we have every single season with a lot of people betting the farm on it winning when every single year, it fades by the time voting starts. Just like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, A Star is Born, Dunkirk, La La Land, Boyhood, Zero Dark Thirty and the list goes on. And on. And on.
– Mank and Promising Young Woman should be safe for nominations and if guilds back them up even for a few Oscar wins, but right this second perception-wise they are not looking great.
– Fifth slot in Best Actress seems to be set now : Andra Day will most likely join Davis, Mulligan, Kirby, McDormand. I think Pfeiffer needed the win / moment tonight to stay in the conversation and Pike, as fearless as that turn was, is up against the very Academy-friendly role of Billie Holiday.
– If I were a betting man I would bet that the Chloe Zhao, Chadwick Boseman and Daniel Kaluuya sweeps have just started tonight.
– Jodie Foster could land her first Oscar nomination almost three decades after her last one.
– Maria Bakalova could be this year’s J-Lo (precursor love ? yes. Oscar love ? no). She had a relatively easy category tonight.
– Amanda Seyfried could have used a win tonight but without it, continues to be on shaky ground post-SAG snub. A Bafta nod would suggest the kind of widespread support that usually garners an Oscar nomination but the win, stats-wise, is definitely out of the question now.
– Glenn Close stans fear not. She may not have won but she still has all the crucial precursor nominations so stats-wise she is still looking good.
I actually completely disagree about The Trial of the Chicago 7, the movie not winning best picture here isn’t absolute proof about anything. The Globes have in recent years often gone for very director-focused films in drama film so it’s not really surprising that Nomadland won, and few of those Globe winners have won best picture in recent years. Also, the previous time the Globes went this highbrow was Boyhood, and that year eventually best picture went to the movie that won only screenplay at the Globes.
Exactly.
You could be right, this early on my take is definitely just a vague theory. For what it’s worth, that’s the impression I’ve been getting from Chicago 7 for quite a while : EARLY frontrunner, yes, but probably not the final one. We’ll see soon enough.
That’s what I used to think about it. 🙂 But I don’t anymore. It’s a very serious contender, in my opinion. It may not win in the end, but I don’t think it will fade at any point.
Same. It’s not winning BP. Minari has a better chance IMO
Not with Bohemian Rhapsody
Surely you don’t think its losing the drama Globe (despite winning screenplay, which is beyond enough) is a sign of its fading! I think it did precisely as well as it needed to. It even managed to avoid becoming the front-runner – I think it was a brilliant night for it, in that sense. Probably just what the doctor ordered. Sure, Cohen winning supporting might have improved it, but not by much. Now, obviosly, things could go the way you suggest, but they could also easily go the way they did for Spotlight. Which did even worse at the Globes. So far it’s square on the Spotlight path – major screenplay strength, facing a likely DGA+GG(+BAFTA, probably) winner that loses the PGA (and Trial could actually win the PGA, even, unlike Spotlight, not just SAG+WGA). I’m not seeing any signs of weakness here at all, but I’m seeing a lot of signs of strength.
Could happen, not sure, I genuinely can’t see it going all the way.
Basically SAG will not clear things up in the actress categories if Day and Foster get Oscar nominations. Maybe it is a total split like when Tilda Swinton won.
That’s what I’m thinking. We have to look towards BAFTA for Oscar predictions now.
And what happens if BAFTA looks like Close, Colman, Seyfried, Zengel, Foster? What if Youn misses there?
Or what if Seyfried misses there? Is Seyfriend out then with no SAG or BAFTA and both Youn and Zengel and Foster are in?
And nothing for Burstyn, though, she feels like your classic “AMPAS branch will get her in, she’s a legend and they love her” surprise 5th slot.
Wow.
So, this is probably, as already surmised, a year that’s going to be decided by the PGA – the only Golden Globe winners that ever won Best Picture at the Oscars as well but lost the PGA along the way happened almost 20 years ago (A Beautiful Mind – the only one ever in drama to do so – and Shakespeare in Love), pre-preferential, of course. If Nomadland wins the PGA, it’s not guaranteed to win the Oscar, clearly, but the point is if it doesn’t, it’s almost definitely not winning it, DGA or no DGA. Which is what I’ve been saying.
Also, for us Carey Mulligan fans, this sucks, but I guess worse outcomes (in terms of our Oscar chances) were possible… We’ve got us some real acting races on our hands this year! (For a change…)
The stats went 2/3 (they weren’t giving a clear favorite in drama, so I won’t count that – it was impossible to say between Trial and Nomadland, just based on the stats, and ProYo had arguments too) – they got musical/comedy right, as usual, director, and missed screenplay completely. (Like I said, they had Trial as the least likely winner. These things happen with Globe stats all the time, the least likely, stats-wise, winning.)
A part of me really wants Andra Day to gain space in the race because it will be so ridiculous to look at Close and say… You are good but this film is trash. And then turn to someone with no film resumé in a truly mediocre film: you are amazing in that.
Day’s performance is better than Close’s and Day’s movie is better than Close’s, though (even if I’d nominate neither)
Every supporting actress performance is inferior to the lead performances. Not the point.
I don’t think it’s a better film. Also not the point here.
I just want to see whether people are coherent enough to show how outraged they are for Day winning in a crappy film if they think the same of Close.
What if they just liked Day and disliked Close in terms of performances? Also, “Every supporting actress performance is inferior to the lead performances” is quite a wild quote, and is in no way actually true (especially when the performances are at profoundly different levels like Day and Close are, Day is solid whereas Close is horrible in the part)
I wouldn’t rank any of the top 5 Actresses (with Day) below any of the Supporting Actress contenders in terms of performance.
I’d go with
1. McDormand
2. Youn
3. Mulligan
4. Seyfried
5. Zengel
6. Davis
7. Day
8. Bakalova
9. Kirby
10. Close
1. Muligan
2. McDormand
3. Kirby
4. Davis
5. Day
6. Colman (this time she deserved to win…)
7. Close
8. Bakalova
9. Youn
10. Seyfried
11. Zengel
Man
1. Lindo
2. Hopkins
3. Ahmed
4. Kaluuya
5. Oldman
6. Boseman
7. Yeun
8. Baron Cohen
9. Raci
10. Boseman
11. Odom Jr.
To be fair, with or without a film resume, Day’s performance was excellent. Sure, the film around her wasn’t but that’s not her fault, she is up for “Best Actress” not “Best Actress in the Best Film”.
For what it’s worth, Glenn Close still looks like the safest bet in Supporting. Seyfried and Foster don’t have SAG nominations, Colman won recently and in lead no less (and against Close no less) so unless Youn wins SAG / Bafta (unlikely), I think Close is winning the Oscar.
I agree the performance is great. She does all she can with a terrible script. I just want to see if there is coherence here. People that think Close can’t win because of HE should definitely think the same about Day.
I think the Glenn Close situation is a bit more complex. I don’t think it is so much about “she can’t win for a trashed film”, it’s more like “after all the decades and nominations and iconic performances, she SHOULDN’t win her first Oscar at last for a trashed film”, but at the end of the day if she could just win that damn Oscar already, I think most of us would be happy.
Sure, it would have been nice to see her big moment happen in lead for an acclaimed film but at this point, who cares, just give it to her already. Also, while I wasn’t a big fan of the film, I did think her performance was excellent and just like in my Day argument, I can just repeat myself : category isn’t “Best Supporting Actress in the Best Film” it is just “Best Supporting Actress” so Glenn Close, delivering an excellent performance, should not be penalised for doing that in a film that wasn’t deemed as strong as her individual work was.
It might be good for Close to not have won, here – and yet still win the Oscar. For The Wife, she ran the table and lost. So I could see there being voter fatigue for her all season long, but then AMPAS rallying for her when it matters.
Very good point.
Definitely!
Phantom, what rating would you give The United States vs Billie Holiday on an A-F scale?
C+
I can’t forgive a shit script.
BUT I maintain that she was still excellent and elevated the material a great deal.
I am a C but very close to a C+. Such a shame that that performance has to be in such a crappy film.
If Colman was winning you have to imagine she would have won the Globe first. Just feels that way.
Well at least they shook things up in the actress races.
Chadwick’s wife was fantastic.
I think we can all agree… At least Jared Leto didn’t win lol.
I’ve had Andra Day in my 5th Led Actress spot for the Oscars for a while. And this is a major boost for her. And yet…without SAG or BAFTA someone else could come along and steal her thunder. Crazy race!
Regina King won the Oscar without SAG or Bafta.
I know. But Regina King is also one of the most well liked and respected people in Hollywood. Andra Day isn’t even known as an actress prior to Billie Holiday. So Day’s win here impressively shakes up the race.
exactly
The best thing is reading how many people are happy with Andra Day, someone with a round zero film resumé, winning a LEAD award in a crappy biopic. But Glenn Close has to lose for the eighth time to Grandpa from Little Miss Sunshine female version.
That is pretty incredible that Viola Davis, Frances McDormand, Carey Mulligan and Vanessa Kirby all lost the Globe. I think most people wouldn’t have put Andra Day in the top 3 here. But the majority of the 90 journalists did.
Actually I had strong feelings that McDormand and Mulligan won’t win (although in the end I predicted Mulligan anyway, foolishly) and thought Davis might win because of a lack of alternatives. Turns out it’s Day for the same reason.
why did you not think Frances or Carey would win?
Frances’ performance is not the type that wins televised awards. It’s too subtle for that.
Mulligan’s character makes the viewer too uncomfortable to really feel good about voting for her.
Worked for Rosamund Pike though. Nomadland picked up the two big prizes. I was not expecting Frances, but was sure that Carey would prevail – helped by the other noms for her movie.
Yes, that was a very reasonable conclusion. PYW overperformed a lot, so a win for Mulligan seemed to be on the cards.
SAG and BAFTA can’t come soon enough – but i love a good race. It feels like the categories all opened up a little, at least from our protracted predictions so far.
Didn’t make me feel uncomfortable at all – made me root for her. Hard.
The same thing happened in Supporting Actress. Everyone thought it was between Seyfried and Close.
Theoretically she could have won with 19 votes, though
Whenever anyone wins ever … I always assume that they did not win by much. It’s true that Day could have won by just a few votes and the actresses behind her were not far, at all.
yes, it feels like it would be close – that is some heavy weight competition
The three Golden Globe actress winners do not have a Sag nomination. The two actress races just got really interesting especially if all someone also misses Bafta but gets the Oscar nomination.
The Globes are so weird. One year they pick Bohemian Rhapsody and the other year they pick Nomadland.
True to form, I suppose – always keep us guessing… 🙂
So Day is the frontrunner now??
the optics are interesting, but i don’t think it will affect the outcome. She may well get that 5th spot everyone has been speculating on.
nup
For that 5th Oscar best actress slot maybe.
I hope she becomes the frontrunner to see if people that wrote long pieces on how much of a travesty is for Close to win for HE will be fine with someone with a round zero film resumé winning for a mediocre film.
Hell no!!!
The Oscar must going to Carey!
She will win.
Lmao what a fucking joke
So the two Golden Globe winners in Best Actress have no SAG nominations and are not on the Bafta long list. Stats just BROKE.
Probably. 🙂 But probably not strong stats.
Has this ever happened before though ? I can’t imagine it has.
Hmmm… Would take some serious research, I guess… 🙂 Awkwafina seems to be one, in musical/comedy. And I’ve just found the most recent one in drama – Isabelle Huppert for Elle. Or did you mean both? I don’t see how both being in that situation could have ever happened. Sounds very, very unlikely.
Oh, yes, that’s what I meant : a year when the two GG Actress winners are neither SAG nor Bafta nominees. I think this was the first time.
Since we’re only talking 25 years or so, yeah, gotta figure it was!
Huppert did get nominated for an Oscar for Elle.
Yeah, but he was only talking about SAG and BAFTA – plus, for all we know, Pike and Day might get in at the Oscars too… (The latter, at least, probably will.)
Yeah, but he was only talking about SAG and BAFTA – plus, for all we know, Pike and Day might get in at the Oscars too… (The latter, at least, probably will.)
Yeah, but he was only talking about SAG and BAFTA – plus, for all we know, Pike and Day might get in at the Oscars too… (The latter, at least, probably will.)
but not for SAG or Bafta – sorry i think i have crashed your comments out of context!
But I thought she’d won BAFTA? Oh wait, that was 43 years ago for ‘The Lacemaker’ (Most Promising Newcomer to Leading Film Roles). Oh, how time flies!
didn’t i say there would be a couple of WTF moments, my friend. I think we’ve had them.
Definitely !
Globes be Globin’
lol
I’m going to reuse this phrase for years to come
Pike didn’t make the long list with BAFTA!? Wow.
These are the ones who made it to BAFTA:
Amy Adams Hillbilly Elegy
Bukky Bakray Rocks
Radha Blank The Forty-Year-Old Version
Jessie Buckley I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Morfydd Clark Saint Maud
Viola Davis Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Julia Garner The Assistant
Vanessa Kirby Pieces of a Woman
Sophia Loren The Life Ahead
Frances McDormand Nomadland
Carey Mulligan Promising Young Woman
Wunmi Mosaku His House
Kate Winslet Ammonite
Alfre Woodard Clemency
Zendaya Malcolm & Marie
thank you for this. I reckon they will go local with 3 – Kirby, Mulligan, Clark, and then also McDormand and Davis.
I could totally see that happen.
Have you seen SAINT MAUD?
yes and she is impressive. And from the United Kingdom
I’m in Australia and it doesn’t come up on any of my streaming services.
I’m an AACTA member and a friend of mine loaned me a screener. It’s a hard one to find!
Definitely going to rewind the moment the winner announced and watch the reactions of the other 3. Incredible moment
Well… Glenn Close can’t win because the film is mediocre but that trashy biopic can win a Lead category? Foster, Colman… remember when I mentioned where is Cher? The non-actress is here. Andra Day.
WTF???
Andra Day???
Love the reactions!
Who saw that coming?
Nobody
Some people predicted it – some always do. 🙂
Actually I think Sasha talked about this possibility on the recent podcast.
Another brilliant WTF moment.
I’m loving the Globes doin whateva the hell they want
lol
At least an actual film won here.
My predictions are incredibly wrong at this point
but are you having fun?
Who couldn’t be, when Tina Fey and Amy Poehler are on stage?
that’s good to read aroncido. I just revel in all this stuff. So silly, but makes some of the slog worthwhile!
Anyway, the only predicting I take seriously is Best Picture at the Oscars. Everything else I mostly do at random.
the toughest one to predict!
I would say the easiest 🙂 – because we have by far the most stats data to work with in doing so, for it. True, the last 6-7 years they’ve done a really good job at making it seem not so easy…
it’s that pesky preferential ballot. 12 of the toughest predictive years for me and i’ve been doing it since the early 80’s!
not sure if predictive is a word!
That definitely has a lot of influence, but it’s clearly not just that, since the distribution of precursor wins and nominations has also been weirder than average in the last half-dozen years or so. Not at all sure what the explanation for that might be – all we have are theories, most probably.
“and i’ve been doing it since the early 80’s!”
Nice!…
Yes, nice shout out to Bakalova.
Why is it so funny to me that Fincher chugs down a glass of whatever he’s drinking when someone wins in a category he’s in.
it’s pretty cool i reckon
It’s very hard to read the room in a virtual ceremony.
Are we heading for the expected Chicago 7 victory, or could something else upset?
But it’s not like the room is fully made up of voters at the Globes in general
True, but it’s still “Hollywood people” I guess…
Reading the room worked against La La Land. People didn’t seem so happy.
I wouldn’t be surprised by an Atonement kind of win for Mank.
i still think it’s too early in the season – as interminable as it is – it is hard to know where the pulse it strongest.
I was thinking mostly about this evening 😀
Oh, hmm, i got nothing – sorry (not like me). No f-ing clue! Batshit crazy year of life, and equally bizarre award show.
if Carey wins – then the Drama could equally go to any of PYW, Chicago 7 or Nomadland.
clear as mud
Cohen losing supporting makes me wonder
I think it is so cool that we are having these chats, and we are in countries all over the world as this happens. I just had to share that thought with my fellow commenters.
Totally!…
Agree with you !
For the record, the performances that won the Golden Globe in a supporting category and didn’t get an Oscar nomination (* marks someone else from the movie getting a nomination in the same category at the Oscars):
Katherine Ross (Voyage of the Damned)*
Karen Black (The Great Gatsby)
Hermione Gingold (Gigi)
Katy Jurado (High Noon)
Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals)*
Richard Attenborough (Doctor Dolittle)
Richard Attenborough (The Sand Pebbles)*
Oskar Werner (The Spy Who Came in from the Cold)
Stephen Boyd (Ben-Hur)*
Millard Mitchell (My Six Convicts)
Surprisingly many. About 5%, I guess. (Maybe less. I’m too tired right now to count how many GG years there have been.)
OK, once again I will sound like a dick tonight but instead of cutting off almost every winner mid-speech couldn’t they just ditch the individual BP presentations ? Anyone watching this awards show is most likely already familiar with the movies, no ?
P.S. Luckily they didn’t dare touch Zhao’s speech at least.
A family member in tears delivers the best speech of the night and one of the most powerful I’ve ever witnessed…
and this is in part why the Globes carry gravitas. Yes they are often irreverent and bizarre, but moments like that, really do propel the race onwards.
It was pure…
I felt i wanted to give her a hug through the screen. Wish someone was with her. Hopefully she has her family off camera.
I felt the same way.
Isn’t the awful thing to ponder that if he had gone public with his illness, he wouldn’t have gotten the part he just won for
I am just frustrated he never received mainstream awards recognition while he was alive. Even though he delivered 4 memorable star turns. His performance in Get On Up should have been an Oscar. Not a nomination. The actual win.
We are in a golden fucking age of black talent
We certainly are…
I put you on Twitter with this, Claudiu.
Sorry about that, but it had to be done.
(Thank you for being the good man you always are.)
Thank you! Losing loved ones is the worst thing in the world (and I can’t even begin to imagine and hope to never find out what it’s like to lose one so young), so this kind of moment will always bring me to tears – but I also objectively think her speech was great.
It flowed, it made perfect sense, it was all about him and what he would have said and thought… It was just amazing!
Zhao is a generational talent. This won’t be her first rodeo
Nice pun (intended?) The Rider 🙂
Intended. She’s the real f’ing deal
Second BD nomination in a consecutive year. For Eternals. YES, for a comic book movie. Early whispers are very promising.
And with all due respect if Todd Phillips can do it, so can Chloe Zhao.
The stories of her pitch to Disney are already legendary
I HATED Joker, but Phillips’ direction was solid
Absolutely. Well-deserved win.
And so Chadwick’s sweep starts…
And the Chloe sweep continues
Glad I stick with Chloe… I almost changed my Globe prediction to Fincher
Why do people think Oscar Close is a chance anyway? We schooled you on this only two years ago. Hillbilly Elegy just like The Wife before it aint gonna get it done folks.
Anya Taylor Joy looks like a sexy alien trying to impersonate a human.
And it’s working.
MEE MAW lost…keeping up the proud AD streak of anointing winners based on partisan politics first and on screen work second.
Who did Glenn close piss off lol
Ron Howard and others choosing to blame anti-trump sentiment on the film’s lackluster response didn’t help. Voters don’t like being TOLD what to do
Ron Howard and others choosing to blame anti-trump sentiment on the film’s lackluster response didn’t help. Voters don’t like being TOLD what to do
Oh then that’s all I needed to hear. anytime you speak out in any industry that’s the kiss of death. We should know this by now! Honestly 8 time nominee glenn close does kinda have a cooler ring to it!
“8 time Oscar nominee” IS a cooler title than “(One time) Oscar winner.
A LOT of people win Oscars every year. Not that many have 8 nominations. Especially not for acting.
Not Glenn’s fault. The heavy handed and unnecessarily political campaigning was unhelpful for her case. Especially by this site.
These voters gave her lead two years ago, the HPFA has done right by Close over the years. It’s the Academy who hasn’t.
Exactly. I’m just happy to see how so many people find the enormous nuance in Youn Yuh-jung performance but always found undeserving that Alan Arkin won for doing that in 2006.
Glenn Close cant catch a break
she already has several Globes, maybe they felt she had enough.
Her performance was the best.Whats going on?I hope she gets the oscar still.
Again I feel for Glenn. She thought she was winning and it was kind of uncomfortable to watch.
Wow, didn’t expect Jodie’s win at all and I’m just beyond happy for her. Such a legend. Looks like the race for Best Supporting Actress will be one hell of a ride this year.
The role of Aaron Taylor-Johnson will be played tonight by Jodie Foster
that’s cute. 🙂
This whole show is awkward and disjointed. And really such a shame….they could have kept social distance and mask rules and still had this live. They could have had only the necessary people in the room (meaning the nominees and only the nominees no extras)…it’s hypocrisy to have all of these stars there presenting but you couldn’t have the nominees have the chance to give a speech on stage in front of their community of fellow actors. Hopefully the Oscars don’t do this. So ridiculous.
However, lots of surprise winners! Wow! So Jodie Foster seems to be happening for a nominee? Love The Crown love!!!
The Foster win is a serious WTF? for the awards season and throwing some predictions off.
Oh come on, who DIDN’T have Jodie winning?
Ohh the crown ? Again and again. Boring.
Playing off Gillian fucking Anderson in such rude fashion makes my blood boil. STFU NBC, thanks.
Close will lose to all the ones that beat her (undeservingly) at some point. Colman will win BAFTA. Is Cher up for this category too? But Close will win the Oscar.
WTF???
Jodie Foster???
We got ourselves a race this year!
We got ourselves a race this year!
Yes, but I don’t think Jodie is part of the race for real. Jodie’s is not an Oscar type of a performance. And she missed everything else. She’ll be absent from the remainder of the season. And they won’t give a third Oscar to Jodie Foster while Close is looking from the sidelines. It’s either Close or Youn for the Oscar. I still think it’s Youn.
So… Foster is gonna beat Close again at the Oscar?
Not without a SAG nomination, based on precedent. But this WAS a pleasant surprise, Foster is an icon and one of the best around.
A pleasant surprise indeed
Also, not without an Oscar nomination. She got lucky to be invited at the Globes because Bakalova was in a different category.
And wearing pajamas, How chic!
eks dee
A true WTF moment and wonderful.
Jodie Foster? What the what?!
To say that I’m happy about Rosamund Pike’s win is an understatement. She knocked it out of the park in I Care A Lot with a fearless tournde force and her speech was a delight here.
Really hope she somehow manages to surprise at The Oscars taking that fifth slot.
Jane Fonda is and always has been just magnificent… And I loved her speech.
Wait they announced Best Drama Series before they announced Best Supporting Actress in TV ?
yep. all over the proverbial shop as usual.
Gillian Anderson or Julia Garner. I think.
From the looks of the The Crown awards so far, probably Anderson. Then it would be a proper sweep with the fourth season winning all four categories it was nominated in. Neat.
Although Cynthia Nixon was incredible in Ratched, and i have a little crush on Annie Murphy. So am torn.
And Helena Bonham Carter is a true one off!
An actual moment. An actual presentation. And it be Jane Fonda. Wonderful
A unique figure in the culture.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/043219be534fa9c966bab6f6f86aa7b4baba79af6a8b407ada16d70b7573d1b0.jpg
And very very rich 🙂
American Royalty https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3efa427e8ad4772e833f402be6e3dd270de1ac05f56d11e66479b8b5acfc709f.jpg
HFPA is like “why does the director of our Best Foreign Language film sound so American ? What do you MEAN he was born, raised and educated in the US ? And the film was shot in America, produced and funded by Americans, too ? And it is actually partially in English, too, you say ? Oh well : BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM YAY !!!”
Yes, sadly it’s why the Globes are not to be taken seriously, but as you and I know, the optics are important – the speeches, the names of the winners. Although the fake applause etc, will make it hard to know who is really loved this year.
Actually as an awards show I usually enjoy the Globes the most so I am crediting sleep deprivation for my bitchier than usual takes tonight, oh well 🙂
I do too, but as a bellwether, they are inconsistent.
Thanks for that live link ..it’s the first time I’ve been able to watch the GGs here in England
Sorry to once again complain about this in relation to a wonderful film but what you’re talking about has nothing to do with whether the film is a “foreign language film”, (except for the film being partially in English but many contenders in the category have been partially in English).
No problem. For me a film that has significant parts in English, is more BP material qualifications-wise than BFLF but it IS all debatable.
It would have left the evening empty-handed though, had it not been nominated in the foreign category. So maybe it was in the film’s best awards-related interests in the end.
It would have left the evening empty-handed though, had it not been nominated in the foreign category. So maybe it was in the film’s best awards-related interests in the end.
First stop on the Minari Oscar train. All aboard!
Yes, yes and yes.
Cannot win the oscar
How are you going to stop it?
I meant BFF
That is correct.
What do you have winning BFF as the Oscars
Another Round
Yes, Minari!
my favorite movie of the season. So far…..
The Crown sweep ?
The Crown Rules. Bow to the Majesty.
The fourth season was epic indeed.
What does Bob Odenkirk have to do to finally win an award? This is getting ridiculous by now…
he’s the Susan Lucci of dramas.
be still my beating heart!
Go ProYo!…
Rosamund Pike with all the shade ! LOVED IT.
Yes, Pike.
Wow, a happy WTF for me. I really enjoyed her performance, despite the blackness of the content. She is amazing!
I’m still not over the fact that she lost for Gone Girl.
I LOVE THIS, the HFPA delivering a pleasant surprise at last !
I guess I have to actually watch the movie now.
Also, the main point I guess is that Bakalova is far from steady despite critics’ awards and a SAG nomination if she can lose to a non-contender
i think she will navigate Supporting Actress ok. The category confusion may cause her to fall over, but i personally think she will make the cut.
Jason Sudeikis not giving a fuck with a sweatshirt.
very Bill Murray 🙂
I still haven’t seen Ted Lasso but heard great things ! Any good ?
Fantastic! It was a huge surprise for me as I’ve never been big on him and I’m not a “sports guy”, but it’s charming. Juno Temple is excellent on it! I immediately rewatched the season when I finished it.
me neither, but other than this role, it seems as if Jason has been plugging away for several years on big and small screens and very versatile in genres. I am pleased for him. Although he could have dressed for the occasion 🙂
Diane Warren winning smacks of old-time GG graft
Laura Pausini, Brazil loves you! See you at the Oscars! It’s Warren’s time.
Song at the Globes so rarely matches Oscar. Any stats on that?
Actually it’s not bad for the 2010s: 6/10. But the general rule of thumb is that a song needs to win someting before the Oscars and there are usually few places other than the Globes that have really a lot of choices in the category.
Also, by the way, since I’m not watching a stream, what exactly won?
The Life Ahead one.
Thank you
Speak Now is a great song but not great enough to make me wish Dianne Warren doesn’t win this time. It’s time. Lo Sí is a great song too.
The Life Ahead Diane Warren is still Oscar-less but could this be the year?
It’s a good predictor when the GG-winning song is nominated at all at the Oscars.
true
My predictions are getting wrecked by Judas and the Black Messiah in multiple ways.
Well that’s my first WTF moment.
Mr & Mrs Bacon or Mr & Mrs Sedgwick.
I know it’s a personal consideration and wildly off topic, but this is finally the first time i realize that Amy Poehler is actually hot.
So where are we at now? Chadwick’s sweep has begun, it was always inevitable… I still don’t know where any of the other actors are at – Kaluuya could sweep and could definitely win Oscar but there is so much competition there that I feel like that will be a big race… Given neither of the others are nominated at SAG they definitely aren’t sweeping but I don’t feel like either of them are going to win Oscar so this makes for some of the most exciting acting races in years (apart from perhaps actress last year). I feel like Zhao is going to sweep from here even if Nomadland doesn’t win picture. Though I must say Nomadland feels so much like Boyhood so I’m not ready to confidently call it a front runner yet!
I got burnt last year when globes (alongside noms elsewhere) made me predict Egerton for an actor nom at Oscars and I almost (but didn’t) predict Awkwafina so this isn’t going to immediately make me start predicting Day or Foster at Oscar but this is great publicity for them! This is one of the most fun races in years! SAG could end up telling a very different story (apart from Boseman).
Final thought – I would say of every speech tonight Minari got the biggest boost! That was a gorgeous speech and really goes so well with how much so many seem to adore that film!
I am seeing ads evvverryyywhherrreee for Minari. I think it is building. Globes win. Possible CC wins. BAFTA has yet to chime in, but I think it could do well there.
I think Kaluuya is going to win this and nothing else. Here SBC had a second nomination, but on SAG, CC and BAFTA (and Oscar), it’s Chicago 7 or bust. And given the tremendous year he had… (and how due he is, as most comedians that are also excellent drama actors, but rarely have a chance to play those roles) I would be surprised if Kaluuya won, specially when BAFTA is kind of locked going in SBC direction… anyone else would be a shocker.
It is possible but I honestly don’t think anybody knows where this is going this year! I think SBC could win, Kaluuya could win, I even think Leslie Odom Jr could win… If Judas is getting a picture nom I’ll probably predict Kaluuya.
Leslie Odom Jr has the Song shot. Gaga went that way, won song, lost actress. They are completely OK with even leaving the performer emptyhanded, when also nominated in Song (actually, that’s the danger… voting for him/her in song, and be free to give the acting award to an equally loved performance…). I’d dare to say that Leslie Odom Jr’s chances will be tremendously hurt if he is double nominated.
Firstly, he doesn’t necessarily have song. I’m predicting him to win it but I genuinely think with Netflix campaigning as much as they are that people could get behind the fact that Warren is so overdue. Also I don’t think voters have any problem with giving people multiple awards – they do it all the time in director / Screenplay and other categories so why should they care about it in acting and song? The only 2 recent examples I can think of that were nominated for both are Gaga and Erivo. Sure, neither of them won but i don’t think anybody would argue that either of them would have won if they weren’t nominated in song. If A Star is Born had been as strong as some people thought it would be earlier in the season I really don’t think the song winning would have had an impact on Gaga. In saying that, I would put him in third currently, despite the fact that I think he could still win (any of the top 3 could).
Whether they’re in their actual homes or a hotel suite or office it is still fascinating to see the stars out of the ballroom or the theatre and in another environment. I’m all in on the novelty of it!
I just love Olivia Colman.
and Laura Linney – i won’t rest until she gets an Oscar. She is one of the greats.
Oddest thing for me about Hugh Grant. I never thought he was a great actor, I thought he was an OK romcom star, nothing more, nothing less. Then the last 5 years happened.
He did Florence Foster Jenkins. I would have nominated him for an Oscar.
He did Paddington 2. I would have given him the Oscar.
He did An English Scandal. I would have given him the Emmy.
He did The Undoing. I would have given him the Golden Globe.
To me a McConnaisance level of later-in-life artistic arrival / revelation of a former romcom star. Yet no hardware whatsoever.
Probably because Florence Foster Jenkins and Paddington 2 aren’t prestige like Dallas Buyers Club and True Detective were
Probably. Both were enough for Bafta nominations though.
Yes but eventually what I think pushed the McConnaisance through was that he didn’t just do Bernie and Magic Mike, when he got serious, everyone started throwing awards at him. If you’ve got someone who’s known for comedic work suddenly doing good/great comedic work, people aren’t going to see it as a transformation or really appreciate it on their own. Basically Grant would need to be a bigger legend or be still a bigger movie star for this to work for the Oscars (whereas I’d imagine the money he’s brought to the British film industry carries a little weight)
Love him in Paddington 2! I think he underestimated himself a lot of the time (based on the projects he chose to star in) even though he won a Volpi Cup early in his career, years before he became the leading man in rom-com genre.
LEGEND!
So I went and watched I Care A Lot.
In what universe is that film a “comedy”?
In The Martian is a comedy too universe!
I have to say… I even see more comedy elements in Matt Damon’s performance than Awkwafina’s.
The Farewell is precisely 0% a comedy, in my opinion.
It’s certainly less absurd to consider this as a Comedy than The Farewell.
Dark comedy.
No, just dark.
Pitch. Black. Comedy. Though, I never laughed once. I was amused by Wiest. Love her, always. But I never laughed.
Ok, due to the historical precedence of every GG SA winner at least being nominated for an Oscar since 1976 (forget the year they got Winslet in the wrong category), I hereby raise Jodie’s odds to 1%
I can’t decide if I am just groggy / grumpy / sleepy or if the comedy IS actually falling flat. I love Fey, love Poehler, love Rudolph but these bits just don’t work for me tonight. Maybe they need a big audience to play off of ? Maybe not a “this could have been an e-mail” sitch but just straight announcements and speeches next time ?
It is terrible. Just absolutely terrible.
I thought the opening was actually pretty good, better than award monologues generally.
Those two could read the phone book and I would watch it but the writing this year just felt phoned in, the bar is also high, their previous GG monologues were always VERY funny not just “eh funny I guess”.
If not for this depressed “virtual” atmosphere, I’m sure it would have landed a bit better.
That is very true.
must be really tricky working off each other with only earpieces to bounce off (maybe return vision) but it’s a really hard gig to revisit that magic we’ve had from them so many times before.
Yeah, that one wasn’t that bad. The rest, though…
the laugh track does not help
yep the artificiality of the whole set up is going to be hard to avoid 🙁
Comedy seems very weak so far.
yes i agree. they’re doing their best – its falling a bit flat. the opening was welcome but a bit hit and miss
I love Maya Rudolph. Just to see her face, makes me smile.
I love her too. Kenan as well. Good to see them participate in an actual physical bit. Almost forgot what those are like these days.
it’s all really bitter sweet isn’t it – i feel that. It’s been such a batshit crazy year -i welcome all of this, but it reminds me of what has changed. Virtually everything 🙁
I’m happy for all the winners, and then I’m sad that this is the year they got their international spotlight
I’m happy that the families of all the nominees get to participate on camera, and then I’m sad that the entire families of the losers get their disappointment broadcast around the world.
yes exactly – it is such a panoply of emotions. Award shows are normally joyous and a distraction. Even the Globes can’t disguise what society has been through this past 14 months.
i reckon we need our comedians and comediennes, more than ever right now!
https://media1.giphy.com/media/vUt4UT2oFNXfHA1iyB/giphy.gif
she’s glorious
I just found out last year that she’s married to PTA. Well, they are not legally married, but Maya refers to Paul as her husband.
And the daughter of the legendary R&B singer Minnie Riperton “Loving You”
Ahh yes!
Just had a look at the Supp Actor Oscar history – only one British born actor has won in that category every decade for the last three decades – Mark Rylance (10’s), Jim Broadbent (00’s) and Michael Caine (90’s). 2 in the 1980’s = Michael Caine and John Gielgud.
Daniel Kaluuya may have his work cut out for him.
These “we’ll get a Black member, promise!” bits are sooo awkward.
While it is a good thing they are addressing the issue at every turn, I can’t help but think “actions speak louder than words”. All I am hearing is words and I would prefer to just see actions.
It is also just embarrassing that in 2021 they still have to say these things. Just fix the problem already instead of this annoying “we WILL (sometime probably) fix it”.
Soul got it! Well deserved.
Saul, you mean, surely! 🙂
Re-posting a reply I made to daveinprogress lower down in this thread – because I think it may be of general interest:
My best guess for the PGA right now is The Trial of the Chicago 7. (I still don’t think Nomadland is their kind of winner.) Following in the footsteps of The Big Short, Birdman, The King’s Speech, Little Miss Sunshine and Apollo 13, the other movies to win the PGA without first winning either the Globe or the Critics Choice for picture, in the BFCA era. Obviously, the GG winner (in this case Nomadland, which now seems a clear favorite to me to also win the BFCA) is always the early PGA favorite, but even GG+BFCA winners have failed to win the PGA often enough for it to be no guarantee whatsoever (Sense and Sensibility, A Beautiful Mind, The Social Network and Boyhood – and keep in mind there isn’t a GG+BFCA winner every year, far from it).
Now, if Trial does somehow win the BFCA BP prize (it won’t, but maybe something else that’s not Nomadland wins it, and the same would apply), it joins an incredibly strong list: Roma, The Shape of Water, Spotlight, The Hurt Locker, No Country for Old Men, The Departed, L.A. Confidential and Fargo – you’ll notice 5 of the last 6 of these won Best Picture at the Oscars (and the seventh, Roma, probably only didn’t win the Globe in picture because it wasn’t eligible, making room for Bohemian Rhapsody – so it shouldn’t really even be on this list, making it even stronger) and the most remote two, which didn’t, were back in the days when the BFCA was a new group that never matched the Oscar winner (they didn’t the first 4 years of their existence as an awards group – then they matched it for the next 5 years in a row and have stayed strong since, even if not quite that strong, of course) and probably didn’t even try! (As people claim it does nowadays.) This is the main purpose BFCA BP serves as a predictor – to show if there is early consensus (with the HFPA) or not. If there is, it can go either way – AMPAS can accept or reject that contender. The guilds tell the tale. If not, then the BFCA winner practically always wins BP over the two Globe winners. Like I said, it’s basically 100% since 1998.
Well, I consider it the most deserving, including of Director and Screenplay. Keeping fingers crossed for Amy Adams, Kingsley Ben Adir and Mark Rylance too. Warming up to the Soul soundtrack too. Really good.
It (Trial) was alright, I enjoyed it – but didn’t love it.
All 3 film actress winners are fighting just for the 5th slot in the Oscars.
No, they are not. The prognosticators have obviously lost their minds this year. Maria Bakalova for Borat? That never is happening, and you are going to have feelings of bamboozlement when those Oscar nominations come out
“never happening” Here I introduce you to Academy Awards winners Goldie Hawn, Marisa Tomei and Mira Sorvino.
Pretty wild, huh???
A quick summary of the stats situation for the 2021 Golden Globes in the top categories (besides acting):
Best Motion Picture – Drama
– there’s no real favorite between Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Promising Young Woman, but the first two have the advantage of a Metascore that fits the profile better (ProYo’s 72 is lower than any recent winner’s besides Bohemian Rhapsody, I believe), and I would say Trial’s 77 fits best (that was also my contest prediction);
– Mank is missing the Houston Film Critics Society Best Picture nomination, which correlates very well with winning this category at the Globes (all but Bohemian Rhapsody, the universal exception to most Globe stats, had it – 12/13);
– The Father is fighting major (96% each, over a significant number of years) stats related to its not having been nominated for directing by the HFPA or for picture by the BFCA.
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
– again no clear favorite (that’s how Globe stats work most years, which is what makes them so interesting, I guess), but Borat Subsequent Movievilm is maybe slightly ahead because it’s the only one with 3 nominations and 19 of the last 20 winners in this category had at least that many;
– the Metascores (and common sense) suggest Hamilton (my contest prediction) would be the most likely to “upset”, then Palm Springs.
Best Director
– only Regina King (One Night in Miami) seems to be knocked out of contention by the stats, due to not being among the film nominees here (this stat is on 100% over the last 27 years, at least – not sure whether I checked further back than that when I first wrote it down, a few years ago);
– Chloe Zhao (Nomadland), which I also predicted in the contest, seems the slight favorite over the rest only because 19/22 winners in this category since 1998 had Metascores of 83 or higher and all of the other three (besides Regina King) aren’t close to that, whereas Nomadland is at 96;
– but this is barely a stat (the percentage itself is pretty lame) so it seems any of the four could win here.
Best Screenplay
– the category with the most useful stats, as usual (and the one I’ve done the best in predicting with stat at the Globes in the past, as a result);
– Nomadland surprisingly is on top here (no stats issues), and, just as surprisingly, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (my contest prediction) is in last (because, unlike 50/55 winners here since 1965, it has no lead acting nomination, and because 20/22 winners since 1998 had an 81-or-higher Metascore, not a very good stat, but one that also affects Mank and Promising Young Woman, if it affects anything – The Father has a probably more serious stat, despite the same numbers, to contend with, which is the lack of a directing nomination, which 20 of the last 22 winners did).
Nothing against Andra Day, she seems like a genuinely good person and showed some truly promising acting chops with her debut in Daniels’ extremely lackluster film.
Honestly though wtf… Any of the other 4 incredible ladies deserved it far, far more with their astonishing work and so many more that didn’t even make the cut to the nominations. Carey Mulligan’s daring, fascinating, instantly iconic turn as Cassie in Promising Young Woman should have earned this.
Fennell’s terrific film winning nothing despite earning 4 nominations, Mank winning nothing despite leading this year’s nominations (and being the best film of the entire season imho) and The Trial Of The Chicago 7 winning only Screenplay… So unfair.
And so many wtf choices… Some brilliant (Rosamund Pike), some (Andra Day) oh well…
Anyway, this year’s female categories are officially a mess. It seems like we’ll be having a pleasantly exciting season, I just hope Carey’s unforgettable work will earn her the Best Actress Oscar she’s so overdue for and so bloody deserves.
Mank is going to be this year’s The Irishman. It’ll lead in number of nominations but it won’t win any of them.
maybe art direction .
or whatever that category is called…..
I hate it so much that I have the same feeling. Fincher’s film is just magnificent, I wish it could slay the season but alas.
It has a Production Design to easily win. But If it’s nominated across the board like Irishman, I will be very happy. A masterful achievement.
The anti-Netflix bias is still strong, Covid or no Covid
I agree with all that you said.
I think it’s hysterical that in the actress races, both winners tonight are likely fighting for the 5th slot at the Oscars, or 4th at most.
Crazy night.
Other things:
– 42 of the last 45 BP winners at the Oscars won at least one Golden Globe award (I think the most recent exceptions are Spotlight and The Hurt Locker), a fairly serious stat, and this year we have Promising Young Woman, One Night in Miami, Mank, Da 5 Bloods, The Father, Sound of Metal and News of the World, of the more likely BP nominees, which didn’t. Never (well, since there have been stats going against them, so since the beginning of the season-proper) thought ProYo or Mank would win BP, of course, and this makes it seem even less likely;
– Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Minari, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and maybe Judas and the Black Messiah are the only serious BP contenders that did so, staying alive in terms of this stat;
– more relevantly (since a probably much stronger stat is involved), Nomadland and Trial of the Chicago 7 (and Borat 2, but come on) are the only two that qualify as legit contenders right now in terms of the 100% (28/28) stat about the Oscar BP winner having to win (or tie for, lol – Parasite) either picture, director or screenplay at the Globes or Critics Choice. It’s now up to the rest to find a BFCA win over them in these categories, which doesn’t sound easy to do (of course, at least one more will for sure join them – unless it then gets snubbed by AMPAS in picture -, the adapted screenplay winner at Critics Choice).
You are quite the wunderkind, Claudiu – that is a really interesting stat. It narrows it, for me anyway, to Minari, Chicago 7 and Nomadland for BP. Right now, what would you be expecting to prevail at PGA? Nomadland would seem a likely DGA winner, but the PGA may hold the key? SAG would suggest either Minari or Chicago 7 – so it really is a mixed bag moving ahead isn’t it still?
Thanks! But I’ve just always been fully focused on BP, so most of my discussions here and, earlier, on the IMDb boards, have been about it and its stats, which means I got to think about and find/come up with a lot of different stats about it – and wrote down most of them for future reference. 🙂 So now I have a lot of stats files and tables and it’s easier to come up with relevant stats on the fly – or just apply the ones I already know of to the current season. It’s a lot more work than anything else – very pleasant work, mind you…
My best prediction for the PGA right now is The Trial of the Chicago 7. Following in the footsteps of The Big Short, Birdman, The King’s Speech, Little Miss Sunshine and Apollo 13, the other movies to win the PGA without first winning either the Globe or the Critics Choice for picture, in the BFCA era. Obviously, the GG winner (in this case Nomadland, which now seems a clear favorite to me to also win the BFCA) is always the early PGA favorite, but even GG+BFCA winners have failed to win the PGA often enough for it to be no guarantee whatsoever (Sense and Sensibility, A Beautiful Mind, The Social Network and Boyhood – and keep in mind there isn’t a GG+BFCA winner every year, far from it).
Now, if Trial does somehow win the BFCA BP prize (it won’t, but maybe something else that’s not Nomadland wins it, and the same would apply), it joins an incredibly strong list: Roma, The Shape of Water, Spotlight, The Hurt Locker, No Country for Old Men, The Departed, L.A. Confidential and Fargo – you’ll notice 5 of the last 6 of these won Best Picture at the Oscars (and the seventh, Roma, probably only didn’t win the Globe in picture because it wasn’t eligible, making room for Bohemian Rhapsody – so it shouldn’t really even be on this list, making it even stronger) and the most remote two, which didn’t, were back in the days when the BFCA was a new group that never matched the Oscar winner (they didn’t the first 4 years of their existence as an awards group – then they matched it for the next 5 years in a row and have stayed strong since, even if not quite that strong, of course) and probably didn’t even try! (As people claim it does nowadays.) This is the main purpose BFCA BP serves as a predictor – to show if there is early consensus (with the HFPA) or not. If there is, it can go either way – AMPAS can accept or reject that contender. The guilds tell the tale. If not, then the BFCA winner practically always wins BP over the two Globe winners. Like I said, it’s basically 100% since 1998.
For all of those running around in circles after the Globe wins – listen to Claudiu – “The guilds tell the tale” – very very true.
🙂 They always do…
I’m just in case someone’s interested going to mention every best picture winner that didn’t win anything at the Globes
Spotlight
The Hurt Locker
Crash
The Godfather Part II
The Sting
Casablanca.
Every single one except Casablanca (when the category didn’t exist and there were no other nominees but the winner) was nominated for screenplay.
Brilliant!
I actually just remembered I researched this myself, earlier – just forgot to look at the list. 🙂 I definitely hadn’t realized during that process that all of them were screenplay nominees at the Globes…
Thoughts:
1. So glad the Globes embraced Nomadland, which is. It their typical style of movie. I just think it’s so beautiful and a perfect film for this year we just lived through. I always thought something else would come along just because it was an early front runner, but it really just is THAT good.
2. The actress races are NUTS. Is Jodie Foster in now for Oscars? I hope so. But who is out? Bakalova couldn’t win in an easier race and could go the way of JLo in Husters. Seyfried continues to look shaky as Mank doesn’t seem to inspire passion.
3. And in Lead Actress, both the Drama and Comedy winners don’t have SAG noms and aren’t on the BAFTA shortlist. Very curious who wins those awards and who BAFTA chooses to fill out the category.
4. Daniel Kaluuya seems like he could win most of the Supporting Actor races going forward. Will that mean Judas starts showing up more in other places? Enough support for Best Picture?
5. Promising Young Woman gets a goose egg. I was honestly relieved since I’m still mad at the movie, but perhaps it’s divisiveness is too much to pull off actual wins. Surely Mulligan should have been able to snap up Lead Actress. She ticks off so many boxes for the Globes.
6. Lee Isaac Chung was so likeable and charming. I think his speech will definitely help the film and remind folks about how touching the movie is
I think we are bound for some crazy acting nominations for the Oscars. Maria Bakalova isn’t happening. Jodie Foster might be. Leto won’t get in I don’t think so who gets in there. I still think someone like Burstyn could pop up in a shocker.
Supporting Actor is ripe for a big surprise especially if Leto is indeed out.
I could easily see anyone from this list pulling off a surprise : Tucci, Strathairn, Burnham, Dance, Turman, Domingo.
P.S. Plus one on the Burstyn guess.
Looking at Turman, Burnham, Domingo, Tucci… it’s just ridiculous the amount of love that Leslie Odom Jr. is receiving. The worst performance in the film. At least he is not beating Kaluuya.
do you still think Burstyn has a shot? I reckon Supp Actress pretty crowded – i am not giving up on Bakalova yet. The category confusion by her competing in Lead at the Globes is a hurdle now, but Borat’s two wins tonight, gives them much to push and it really is such a mixed category of young and old.
and experience and inexperience.
I think smart money is probably on
Glenn Close
Olivia Colman
Yuh-jung Youn
Amanda Seyfried
Jodie Foster
BUT stats-wise Bakalova and Zengel are definitely close behind (SAG + GG nods), Burstyn (Critics Choice) is still in the conversation and also just happens to be a living legend who would make history as the oldest ever acting nominee AND I am still not ruling out a proper shocker if a film really over performs (Dominique Fishback from Judas and the Black Messiah or Lily Collins from Mank).
Just a vague theory.
I think Burstyn would have been better-served by being the only potential nominee from her movie, even given its overall muted reception at big awards shows. The fact that Kirby is the star and is getting in easily I don’t think is good for her – coattails nominations don’t tend to come from movies that aren’t strong overall, right? I guess sometimes they do, but it seems very rare to me… At the Oscars, I mean.
A couple of months ago I was sure Amanda Seyfried would win the Oscar. Right now, I feel Glenn Close win. but until we see her 4 competitors, it is tricky to predict an outcome. News of the World is still one of the only big studio films out this season so i think Zengel is in I haven’t seen Jodie Foster’s film, but my sense is that Colman, Youn, Seyfried, and Zengel will join Close, but i still want Bakalova, but that would be 6 – so i dunno!!!! Something’s gotta give.
There could be also a completely unexpected snub : Olivia Colman. Recent winner in lead, respectable turn, zero passion around her bid this time around. This could be one of those “hits every precursor then no Oscar nod” situation that does happen every year in acting categories. Also the buzz around her film seemed to have started to fade significantly after a strong start.
good thinking.
Nope, she seems locked. Recent winner, perfect age group (not too old or too young), in a likely Best Picture contender, a prestige choice, and possibly a very emotive role. Up against all these polarizing contenders, she feels the safest nominee.
Mank best start winning things. I say Burstyn in a shocker because I don’t think Seyfried is all that safe. Jodie Foster’s win is a surprise tonight but will she break the Oscar top five? For now let’s say no. And if Maria is out like I think she is as well, there are two spots open with Close, Colman, and Youn pretty solid.
So if Seyfried and Foster and Bakalova aren’t in…who is? Zengel? Burstyn? Fishback? I see legendary Burstyn in over those two.
Just my opinion.
But why would Burstyn not have had support from HFPA and SAG in that case?
We have no way of knowing how close anyone outside the top five in ANY race is. What if Burstyn was razor thin on all these precursors but still never showed up. This is how there are ‘shockers’. Someone so close in everything but because they never show up people think they have no chance. But in reality all it takes is a tiny shift or a fact it’s a screen legend and boom, nominated and everyone is like WHERE DID THAT COME FROM!??
Really good point you make, JP
Still the elements are the same for every precursor and thus I don’t see the point that somehow Burstyn being legendary would be proof that she will do well with the Academy because she is just as legendary with every other awards group as well. She can get nominated but it’s not obvious just because she is a famous actress since if that fame was so incredibly important, she wouldn’t have barely missed both.
I’m not saying she’ll be nominated because she’s a legend but it sure does’t hurt.
Pieces isn’t a big film and the precursors are giving more support to Glenn whereas the Academy may completely ding that film (at least outside of makeup).
I can’t really see Burstyn miss for some reason, precursors be damned.
Same. There is more often than not a surprise nom in the acting categories. If asked who that is this year, it’s always been Burstyn. Precursors be damned is right.
agree, Holocaust monologue and wanting that nom! Unless Rosamund takes Vanessa’s slot…then Ellen probably won’t have the support either.
agree with this unfortunately
I agree with this but think Seyfried should still find herself a nom … plus it seems unlikely to have 2 let alone 3 older women nominated when they all have strikes against them and their films. At the very least, all 3 will not be nominated. It hasn’t happened yet. So assume Colman, Seyfried, and maybe Zengel if not Foster, plus Youn solid and either Ellen or Close.
I also think Supporting Actor is where we might see a surprise candidate. I’m thinking it’s either Glynn Turman or Mark Rylance.
or Colman Domingo – “1-2 You Know What To Do…” Speaking of, where is Sammy tonight? No sign. You’ve been missed, Sammy
Colman is wonderful. But Turman is the industry vet with a couple big memorable monologues and the tragic death scene at the end of the film. So I give him the edge. And then Rylance is considered by many actors to be one of the greatest living performers. So I never discount him at awards ceremonies, esp if he’s in one of the top contenders
yes i know, for some reason Domingo resonated with me – your points are spot on, as ever. Frankly the abundance of contenders from Chicago 7, One Night In Miami and Ma Rainey may knock each other out of the race altogether. It’s that kind of year. Although I think Odom Jr is in; Baron isn’t a sure thing,
thank you, another person who is stanning Turman. I think I will predict Turman…over Chad.
I think the fact that there are two notable supporting turns from that movie will prevent either from getting in. Scratch off Domingo and Turman
Very good point!
I liked Turman a lot more than Domingo. (Who was also very good.)
Glad I watched the film earlier, or else this would have been a pretty brutal spoiler – I can avoid them when the discussion is clearly heading in spoilery directions, I just skip over stuff, but when it’s mostly out of the blue, like here, it’s hard. 🙂 (Also hard during podcasts – Sasha is especially terrible/careless when it comes to avoiding spoiling things for listeners. I’ve had The Father spoiled in one of the AD podcasts this year already and a friend told me Minari was also spoiled in the same podcast – which I thankfully missed, somehow, probably through being distracted at that exact moment. It’s OK, I’m at peace with it and it’s not a huge deal anyway, but it’s weird. Most movie podcasters and such are more careful about stuff like that.)
If you take Ma Rainey’s, One Night and Chicago 7, I can easily come up with 10 supporting performances that top Leslie Odom Jr. The performance is not special. He is not overdue for any recognition in film awards. The only explanation I can get is goodwill for Hamilton.
I haven’t seen One Night yet, so can’t comment on Odom, but I saw the other two and you’re right about that much, they’re LOADED with fabulous supporting turns – as was Mank.
My apologies. I guess I forgot not everyone has seen or read August Wilson before.
No need to apologize, of course! 🙂 August Wilson is not somebody you hear about very often in Romania, even in academic circles. We’re more Europe-focused in our literary interests. I might never have heard of him had it not been for movies…
I don’t see how Dance ever happens, with Mank so weak for the BP win. These upset slots are generally reserved for the strongest BP contenders or people in little-seen, little-nominated movies, no? (Criteria by which all of the others you mention might qualify, save for maybe Turman and Domingo, pending further developments with Ma Rainey.) That’s the feeling I’ve gotten over the years.
If people here in this space are uncomfortable with watching Pieces of a Woman, imagine the Academy… I fear for Kirby. She nails it and I think she is way more vulnerable than most realize.
Getting this vibe
Picture/Director/Screenplay: White/Asian
Acting: Black
Nomadland, Minari & Chicago 7 all look well placed. I still think The Father has overlooked sweep potential (even without Actor win, it can mount from Colman). Promising Young Woman and Mank hanging on for noms.
Then the films with strong black representation are being funneled into acting.
I wonder about various campaigns cannibalising each other and the parting red seas it creates. I could see Mulligan v. Pike, Chicago 7 v. Judah, Nomadland v. Minari
McDormand still has potential to win 3 Best Actresses for the ‘runner-up’ Best Picture.
And once again, one of those years where the Musical/Comedy category feels utterly irrelevant. Some slim chances, but nothing very likely to make the Oscar acting cut.
Oscar voters reluctant to give McDormand a third best actress award so soon after the second (a standard weirdly never spoken about when DDL won #3) have an out as McDormand co-produced with Zhao (brought Zhao to the project initially if I remember correctly). There’s her reward for the film.
He was playing Abraham Lincoln. If the industry can fall for any crappy performance in any crappy biopic imagine the greatest actor alive playing the most notorious American president of all time in an actually great and well-written film. Irresistible.
It might be the ‘next year anyway’ effect as well (Bridges/Firth had a bit of that going on in 2009-10). Playing Lady Macbeth to Denzel in a Joel Coen film could pressure a 4th win, so they might just prioritise Nomadland in other categories and wait and see. Actress is a bit weak this year though, very sweep-friendly.
I suppose by next year we will all finally know if the rumored break up of the Coen Brothers is actually true.
Last year’s acting categories were so boring. After that snoozefest, this feels so fun. I’m actually happy that HFPA went a different way than SAG & BAFTA. They usually are not that brave in acting categories. As soon as I heard Andra Day & Rosamund Pike, their wins made sense. I still don’t get how Jodie Foster won though.
Just when some of us thought PYW had the support and thus Carey would win this easily… sigh. PYW went home empty-handed.
I never thought easily. It’s never easy… Not until they start winning every TV award. She still seems like the favorite to me – since Davis or McDormand didn’t win. I guess Day is maybe a serious threat, but I think this is more proof of a tight race than anything else.
Yup… The race has only just begun. It’s not over yet until at least one televised award is held.
BP+BD had been always long shots but I really thought / hoped it could win at least Screenplay or Actress. Hopefully the guilds / Bafta will embrace it more.
even before tonight, we were expecting the different guilds and awards like HFPA to go in different directions, and these outcomes could be further pointers that will happen. BAFTA and AMPAS still have considerable cross over so it will be interesting to see which actors they reward. And of course their diverging in recent years with BP/BD with Oscar will make it quite the rollercoaster.
So damn angry about this. Carey deserves to sweep the whole season with her bravura work. Extremely disappointed with their decision to go with Andra Day of all people. All other four nominees were far, far more deserving choices.
Freddie Mercury, then Judy Garland the next year, Billie Holiday the next. Is the biopic impact really going to give Andra Day more leverage than expected? Judy was hardly a great movie, and Bo-Rhap divided people but yielded Oscars for their stars.
My God, let’s hope not. Andra Day’s performances, surprisingly good as it is, doesn’t even come close to the Top 25 leading female performances of the year. It’s Carey or Viola that deserve to slay the season, preferably Viola. Andra winning here was such a bad call on HFPA’s voters’ part.
it will be interesting to see how it develops, from here.
Oh for sure:))
Zendaya is winning the Oscar for Ronnie Spector
I think it’s still Davis vs Mulligan
Me, too. Could be Viola SAG/Carey BAFTA and then we have no clue for the Oscar.
If Carey doesn’t at least win the BAFTA the Brits can go f… (Nah, I love Brits – but come on, people! What’s not to like?!)
it could go that way, but i sense that both SAG and BAFTA will go with Carey. I looked through the SAG history and Oscar, and although SAG is only 26 years – i think only twice has the leading acting awards gone to the same film. I think Davis’ less screen time and overshadowed by Chadwick’s narrative will give Carey the win, and the Brits will go for one of their own. No doubt in my mind.
But how many movies got leads of both sexes nominated at SAG in the first place? I wouldn’t be surprised if it was just those two…
good point, i don’t recall – but probably not many. I shall look 🙂
about 17 times!
Wow, that’s just amazing! I wouldn’t have dreamt it was this many… Well, then the stat is relevant, for sure! Go Carey! 🙂
So Frances can get third Oscar via producing???
I spoke too soon. Fucking NBC tried to play off Zhao winning Best Picture.
ridiculous – isn’t it. Sacha Baron Cohen was barely 30 seconds in before it started.
Yet the TV spots of the nominated films were deemed necessary. When most people interested in the Golden Globes have already seen these movies or the very least the 2min30sec trailers thus the little 40sec TV spots provided absolutely nothing for the target audience but at least took the time away from winners trying to celebrate their achievements. The producers need to rethink this concept before next year’s show.
Yet the TV spots of the nominated films were deemed necessary. When most people interested in the Golden Globes have already seen these movies or the very least the 2min30sec trailers thus the little 40sec TV spots provided absolutely nothing for the target audience but at least took the time away from winners trying to celebrate their achievements. The producers need to rethink this concept before next year’s show.
the only people it irritated were the trillions of home viewers. the winner didn’t seem to stop or be constricted, but it was so disrespectful and distracting.
Globes wins like this don’t always mean BP win, but a huge hurdle to clear
WHOOOOOOHOOOOOO!!!!
Does this point to a general lack of support for both Promising Young Woman and Nomadland (at the Globes or in general)?
nah Nomadland won Direct and Picture
The answer is clearly NO.
Let’s hope the answer is also no in ProYo’s case!
For the second year in a row the Best Actress Comedy Golden Globe winner is probably not getting an Oscar nomination. Awkwafina last year. Rosamund Pike this year. Pike’s performance supposedly is even better than what she did in ‘Gone Girl’.
It’s definitely not as good, but enjoyable
The stats in musical/comedy are incredible, they always get it right, it seems…
How so?
All 3 years I’ve looked at them. For the Globes, 3/3 is a lot…
All 3 years I’ve looked at them. For the Globes, 3/3 is a lot…
Borat 2 was the stats favorite this year because the other four all had fewer than 3 nominations and only one of the last 20 winners (I didn’t write down which) in this category had fewer than 3.
Nomad? Land?
That was just heartbreaking. What a beautiful woman and how beautifully did she honour her husband.
Anya scares me
me too
She’s also scary-good…
please explain why?
Because she looks like she can break into serial killer mode at any time
Lol 🙂
Should the day ever come when she gets to play an actual serial killer, she will win an Oscar for it. She was born for that part… (And many others, but that one in particular.)
Now watch Youn win SAG and the Oscar.
Gotta love HBC who as far as I am concerned definitely said “hell naw” to her publicist when she told her she should stay up til 3am for this.
i thought she was just really still! (no, i knew she wasn’t there)
🙂
That play off music is horrible and disrespectful.
The woman never ages! She is wonderful.
Indefatigable spirit. She is so inspiring. I’m so glad she showed up.
Incredible British bias in the acting awards
I think Pike might be the fifth nominee at the Oscars.
it’d be nice, but i think it will be Andra Day or Amy Adams.
Yeah, my guess is Andra Day, too. None of the presumed 5th slot players are in particularly acclaimed films and Day’s role is the most Oscar-friendly. She is also truly brilliant. Too bad the film around her is not but that’s not her fault.
I don’t know if she was submitted to the BAFTAs. She is not in the longlist.
Sad to say, I Care A Lot was BAFTA-submitted-and-eligible – and snubbed.
Please. God. Make. This. Happen.
She’d be deserving as fuck. An extraordinary actress in one hell of a turn and in a devilishly delightful black comedy. So happy about her win here.
The last minute streaming debut could be perfect timing (lots of people will see it / talk about it just around the time voting will be underway) but I am skeptical she could make the cut. She would be deserving though. Fearless turn.
good word for it – fearless
Fearless is such a spot on comment about her performance. I so want her to take that fifth slot.
Soul is 2/2 !
Nothing could make me happier this evening.
YESSSS!!!! THE SOUL SCORE!!
I never thought I would see Aaron Sorkin win a Golden Globe and my reaction would be “ugh”. Love his work in general. Not this film though.
I am genuinely surprised it took Hollywood two decades to take Amanda Seyfried seriously. She has the kind of screen presence / cinematic face that would have made her a star in any decade of the 20th century let alone the 21st; she can do drama (First Reformed), comedy (Mean Girls), musical (Mamma Mia), thriller (Chloe) and yet this is the first time in a 20+ year career that she has any awards traction or a proper prestige film to shine in.
Check her out in The Last Word with Shirley Maclaine – they both co-produced it and had great chemistry and Amanda more than held her own with the legendary veteran.
Will do !
Wow, I forgot she was in First Reformed too!…
Was that Catherine’s partner playing her off during her speech? Weird. Thrilled she won. Catherine O’Hara is an international treasure.
Could be a long night! Once someone starts talking (eventually) will music be able to play them off? Much trickier 🙂 Once he spoke, how wonderful is Daniel Kaluuya.
He better win the Oscar, too.
He will, the sweep starts here.
it’s a good start. 🙂
Rather see Paul Ricci win even though Daniel is excellent
hey gang, you’re welcome to stay here, of course
but the winners update page is over here:
https://www.awardsdaily.com/2021/02/28/2021-golden-globe-awards-winners/
There goes my perfect score…
I had him – and was starting to regret it. :))
I hope my Judas prediction in Song comes through now.
Kaluuya ! So well-deserved.
Watched the film right before tonight’s ceremony and he is absolutely brilliant in it. This is well-deserved!
There were some solid options in this category but, to me, he was in a league of his own.
Agreed. I wish Lakeith Stanfield was getting more recognition in Lead, but I would be very happy with Kaluuya taking home the Oscar.
I think Stanfield will surprise on Oscar Nominations Morning.
That would be a most welcome surprise. His scenes with Jesse Plemons are among some of the most intense stretches in the whole film. And both play them perfectly.
That would be a most welcome surprise. His scenes with Jesse Plemons are among some of the most intense stretches in the whole film. And both play them perfectly.
Plemons has been an unsung hero for years now, too.
I hope Dominique Fishback can get in
there as well. She was so spectacular in her role. The three of them are worthy nominees.
Love Bill Murray; he is just a cool dude who doesn’t seem to give a …
But Sadly Co.-Lead? I think the Acdemy need new Rules. So we never get 2 Female or Men Lead Roles in the main category again! ;-( Sad for the real supporting players like Paul Raci!
I just realized how fast the awards season last year ended. By Feb 9, we knew Parasite won Best Picture. I mean, even compared to any other year (which usually ended by the end of Feb or the start of March) last year’s calendar was so short and cramped. And then this year… we still have the whole March and April.
Happy Golden Globes. Here’s to Meryl — oh wait.
Whoah I just realised that today was supposed to be the last day of the awards season : the Oscars !
I completely lost track of time during this goddamn pandemic.
Same. Hopefully this GG will be worth it because it is 1am here and I am sleepy.
You’ll get re-energised, my friend, we’ve waited weeks for this (feels like months) 🙂
I just need ONE outrageously undeserved win and I will be wide awake til Wednesday 😀
there’ll be at least one if not more WTF moment
Very true, they always manage to shock and rarely in a pleasant way.
might even be in the opening monologue! those two are so witty and clever
I love them ! I need at least one epic zinger on the “Clooney and women his age” level.
Greenwich Mean Time gang unite!
15 minutes everyone 🙂
Hi everyone!
Any links to stream it from Europe?
Thanks in advance!!!
I’d sure love to see that United Emirates HD link that usually gets shared around this time of year.
https://www.dubaione.ae/content/dubaione/en-ae/programs/25/GoldenGlobe2021.html
There you go, AD peeps, I bookmarked it last season when they also covered SAG live, too, so they will probably do that this season, too.
Amazing!
Here is hoping, last season it was a crystal clear, glitch-free live stream.
Thank you so much!!!!!!
Many thanks! I had forgotten about it – and I hate not being prepared, so this is a life-saver…
This one seems to work:
http://freestreams-live1.cAWARDSDAILYom/nbc1/
delete the AWARDSDAILY
Yup, same one I’m using. 🙂
Thank you so so so much!!!! ❤
Have a great Globes everyone! May your favourite prevail! And as Bette famously quipped –
‘I’ll show you a pair of Golden Globes’ – and she did! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f5eef01a2482775402dcf423698841f6ae699ca9ca79b504276edf388a1f330a.jpg
Hi AD team! What do you think the ratings will be?
Bigger numbers than the Grand Wizard Finale at CPAC!
A+ for effort.
They’re trying to entertain us.
I for one am grateful for that.