The new rules for the BAFTA voting takes them out of bounds a bit in terms of predicting how the Oscars might go. Until such time as the Academy and other industry groups decide to start selecting via jury who should be nominated, rather than leaving it up to the voters themselves, the will BAFTAs no longer tell us much. Instead we will be need to look to the Directors and Producers Guilds, along with SAG, to find our trends and bellwethers among consensus voters.
On the the had, the Oscar nominees might end up being the same as those the BAFTA choose – you never know – but it’s also possible that BAFTA will stand out as an experimental anomaly, and it will be interesting to see how their results change things.
For now, we can pretty much see what 2021 is about, but we knew that at the beginning of the year, or at least anyone who has followed along with observations made on this site. We knew it was going to be a year about inclusion and equity in the film awards race, as it is everywhere else on the cultural Left. It has also been a year when normal factors in the equation were eclipsed by the tragedy of COVID that emptied out the streets and movie theaters and put the Oscar race squarely in the hands of the increasingly insular group of people who still care about it.
We know for months which films have been pushed and done well, and which films have been pushed that didn’t do well. We know that filmmakers are divided by many voters into groups to categorize them in terms of their presumed value and worth, relative to one another. Women, men, white men, people of color. That metric will likely influence how the two largest guilds decide their nominees, or else we think that is how it might go.
Oscar ballots go out today, that means they are less likely to be influenced by the PGA, the DGA or the BAFTA. They are, as we like to say around here, “flying blind.” But they’re working from the same basic set of information everyone else is. There aren’t that many films in the race to begin with.
The Producers Guild will have an even 10 nominees and 10 slots on their ballot, where Oscar voters don’t. They will next year. But this year, it is still the old system – which means one or two or three of those announced on the PGA won’t make it all the way into Oscar.
We have a contest for predicting the Producers Guild and the Directors Guild, and you can enter it here.
Let’s look at the Producers Guild first – these are, more or less, the main contenders out of which 10 nominees will be chosen.
Nomadland – SAG (1), MPSE
Mank – SAG (1), SLC (2), MUAHS (1), ADG, MPSE, SDSA, CAS, VES (1), CDG
The Trial of the Chicago 7 – SAG (3), WGA, ADG, SDSA, MPSE (2), CAS
Minari – SAG (3), SLC (1)
Promising Young Woman – SAG (1), WGA, MUAHS (2), ADG, SDSA, CDG
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – SAG (3), WGA, MUAHS (2), ADG, MPSE, SDSA, CDG
News of the World – SAG (2), WGA, SLC (1), ADG, MPSE (3), SDSA, CAS, VES (1)
Da 5 Bloods – SAG (4), SLC, ADG, VES (1), SDSA, CDG
Sound of Metal – SAG (1), WGA, MPSE (3), SDSA, CAS
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – SAG (1), WGA, SLC (1), MUAHS (2), SDSA
Judas and the Black Messiah – SAG (1), WGA, CDG, SDSA
Soul – ADG (1), CAS (1), IFMCA (1), MPSE (1)
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Here is how each of us sees it going down:
Sasha Stone
PGA
Nomadland
Trial of the Chicago 7
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
Judas and the Black Messiah
Soul
Alt. Da 5 Bloods
DGA
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
David Fincher, Mank
Lee Isaach Chung, Minari
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Alt. Regina King, One Night in Miami, Paul Greengrass, News of the World
Mark Johnson
PGA
Da 5 Bloods
Judas and the Black Messiah
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
Trial of the Chicago 7
DGA
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
David Fincher, Mank
Aaron Sorkin, Trial of Chicago 7
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Clarence Moye
PGA
Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm
Da 5 Bloods
Judas and the Black Messiah
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
Trial of the Chicago 7
DGA
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
David Fincher, Mank
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Aaron Sorkin, Trial of Chicago 7
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Marshall Flores
PGA
Da 5 Bloods
Judas and the Black Messiah
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
Trial of the Chicago 7
DGA
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
David Fincher, Mank
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Aaron Sorkin, Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Ryan Adams
PGA
Da 5 Bloods
Judas and the Black Messiah
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
The Sound of Metal
Trial of the Chicago 7
DGA
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
David Fincher, Mank
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
